Fantasy Football / NFL
- Details
- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
300 Yards
Julio Jones became the 6th player ever to hit the 300-yard mark in a single game, putting up the monster stat line of 12 rec, 300 rec yds, and 1 TD. Everyone who panicked after week three's 16-yard performance can direct their fears elsewhere (Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick come to mind). Jones will be fine going forward, namely because his QB is the best so far in 2016. Matt Ryan currently leads the league in passing yards (1473), passing TD's (11), has only 2 INT's and even has 2-2 pt conversions. His 109.62 fantasy points are 20% higher than the second highest scoring QB, Drew Brees.
0 Points
The Patriots were shut out for the first time at home since 1993, which predates the Belichick era. The last time the team was shut out was in Miami in 2006. Of course, most people would agree that the lack of points comes from a distinct lack of Tom Brady. Brady's suspension is over now and he'll be eager to get going after leading the league in touchdowns last season. It's time for the Tom Brady Middle Finger tour, you almost feel bad for the Cleveland Browns.
152.5 QB Rating
Ben Roethlisberger put up a 152.5 QB rating against the Kansas City Chiefs, who had been giving up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QB's. Ben's 300 yards, 5 TD performance will certainly put a dent in those numbers. This is the 8th game of his career where he finished with a QB rating over 150 - he has 3 games with a perfect score of 158.3. The Steelers struggled last week, but with the return of Le'Veon Bell, expect full steam ahead with the best QB-RB-WR punch in the league.
19 Points
No kicker has put up 20 points yet this season. Mike Nugent and Dustin Hopkins both share the top spot with 19 points. Why bring this up, you ask? Throwing darts at a wall is as good an option as any when it comes to picking a kicker week to week. Nobody is that consistent - AHEM, Stephen Gostkowski and your zero points. Well, this column is called Statistically Insignificant, after all. This stat is pretty useless. The third best kicker this season is only owned in 11% of leagues - there's a stat you can use. Now go pick him up, or throw a dart at the wall, I don't care - it's a kicker!
77.60 Points
DeMarco Murray has 77.60 points already this season, helped along by his 5 touchdowns. He's first among non-QB's, and 8th overall among all players. He's got the number 2 guy, Melvin Gordon, beat by 10 points. Stand up if you had these two guys leading the league after 4 weeks, even above the stud WR's. Of course, one person did have them - my opponent this week, damn you ReDraft!
- Details
- Written by Matt Cochrane
Week 3 is in the books and all I can say is it wasn't pretty. Somehow the Dolphins needed overtime to finish off the hapless Browns last Sunday afternoon. If it wasn't for a 46-yard shank, the last of three missed field goals by freshly acquired Cody Parkey 236 people would have been eliminated from the pool. As it stands 99 were eliminated with the bulk coming from Carolina and Arizona's losses bringing the running total down to 477 survivors.
As we move on to week 4, I feel that this has been the most uncomfortable I've felt picking thus far. The first 3 weeks picks seemed obvious and reflected such in the individual pick breakdown. This week I think we will see some more disparity in picks. Three match-ups stood out to me as options for this week's pick.
The first and probably the most popular pick would be the Redskins over the Browns. On the surface, this feels like a great pick at home and 7.5 point favorites coming off a big win against the Giants. But I believe this could be a trap game. The Browns could very well run a muck of this shoddy Redskins defense. If the Browns can get ahead in this game and establish the run, I have little faith in Kirk Cousins to lead a comeback.
If I had to pick a second team to win this week it would be the Denver Broncos. The Buccaneers just lost a home game to the Los Angeles Rams in which they let up 37 points, to the RAMS! I think that Chris Anderson has a big game and the Broncos win this one easily. The Broncos are looking every bit as good as last years super bowl team and I would argue better on offense.
But I elected to pass on this pick because there was another match-up I liked with the extra benefit of this particular team playing at home. That pick is the Arizona Cardinals. They are the biggest favorites this week by 8.5points against the very Rams I just mentioned. Coming home after a Buffalo beat down to play a division foe they will be looking for some revenge. As long as Todd Gurley doesn't go nuts I think Arizona wins this game easily.
So there is my two cents Cardinals, Broncos, Skins in that order. I think you're good with any of the three but the Browns make me a little nervous. I don't see many opportunities for them to win games this year and this might be the one. Only Detroit goes for broke.
Cheers, Drink Five!
- Details
- Written by Tad Bukowski
Well, every week can’t be perfect!
Last week proved to be quite the unpredictable week. Luckily though, if you went with our picks, you may have still scored enough points to pull off the win. Now we are getting into the bye weeks. This means that the highest number lines are unavailable (no 16 point line this week).
This makes every game in this stretch of the season critical, especially if you are looking to do some climbing in your season pool. We have been doing pretty well so far this year, let’s just keep it rolling!
Week 4 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
15 – NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo – Everything that the Patriots have done so far this season has been without Tom Brady…just think about that.
14 – CINCINNATI over Miami – The Bengals look like they will be keeping us on our toes all season. A primetime home game against the Dolphins shouldn’t need too much second guessing…right?
13 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – No JJ Watt? No problem. The Titans defense would be able to contain the Texans offense enough here.
12 – WASHINGTON over Cleveland – The ‘Skins finally showed some signs of life last week. Even in defeat, my BOLD PREDICTION is that TERRELLE PRYOR WILL ECLIPSE THE 100 YARD RECEIVING MARK.
11 – ARIZONA over Los Angeles – Seriously Cardinals? Seriously?
10 – MINNESOTA over New York Giants – The Vikings seem to be pretty resilient this season. Hard to see them losing at home to an up and down team like the Giants.
9 – Dallas over SAN FRANCISCO – If Dez doesn’t play, Dallas should still win, but drop them down a few lines.
8 – PITTSBURGH over Kansas City – I expect a very angry Steeler team to let out some aggression this week after such an embarrassing inter-state loss.
7 – Detroit over CHICAGO – Do you realize that the Bears have only won one game at Soldier Field in the last calendar year?
6 – NEW YORK JETS over Seattle – Look for the Jets to be more careful with the ball this week.
5 – Carolina over ATLANTA – The Falcons are the only team that I have not predicted a game correctly yet this season…so take this pick for what its worth.
4 – BALTIMORE over Oakland – The Raiders have proven to be too unpredictable this season to feel confident in them winning in Baltimore.
3 – JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis – The Colts needed a 4th quarter comeback to win a home game against the Chargers … … … the CHARGERS!
2 – SAN DIEGO over New Orleans – Seems like just yesterday this game would seem more important.
1 – TAMPA BAY over Denver – Maybe its because it’s a cross country game, maybe it’s because the mighty Broncos have been traveling a lot lately. But let’s just call it like it is…this is just a hunch.
- Details
- Written by Jason Evans
We're a quarter of the way through the season and on the eve of Week 4, we're coming up on a Thursday night matchup that looks like it can be competitive (for a change). This week also features the return of London football. While I'm not a huge fan of making teams break up their routine with the shock of a trip across five time zones, I do like the fourth game slot on Sundays. So this week, don't forget that the Eagles and Packers are on bye (ouch!) and to check your lineup on Thursday night and early Sunday morning. For more advice for this week, check out this week's podcast, airing live every Tuesday night!
Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 9/27/16: Week 4 Trends & Truths
- Details
- Written by David Biggs
Taking a look at the player trends over the past few weeks can reveal some surprising things - it's important, though, to temper expectations in some cases and realize that some great (and some awful) performances can be the product of gameflow as much as the talent and/or rising production of a player. But since each player can only be owned by one team at a time in most standard fantasy leagues, you've got to scoop them up before anyone else and make smart decisions as far as when to play a rising (or falling) star. What do you think about these scenarios? Will the players listed below live up to expectations based on recent weeks?
We discuss our thoughts on the below players on this week's podcast:
Quarterbacks
Trevor Siemian (DEN, QB)
Week 1 vs. CAR – 18/26, 178yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 11.12pts
Week 2 vs. IND – 22/33, 266yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 12.34pts
Week 3 @CIN – 23/35, 312yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 28.98pts
Siemian was an underdog from the beginning of the preseason, and had a rough start in 2016, but he lit it up against the Bengals in Week 3 and has constantly improved since the opening game against the Panthers. He is now the 12th highest scoring QB in standard scoring leagues after 3 weeks, can he score 18 points or more this week against the Bucs?
Kirk Cousins (WAS, QB)
Week 1 vs. PIT – 30/43, 329yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 11.96pts
Week 2 vs. DAL – 28/46, 364yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 19.56pts
Week 3 @NYG – 21/35, 296yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 19.34pts
Similar to Siemian, Cousins has increased his effectiveness and gotten better at protecting the football every week so far in 2016. The Redskins go up against the Browns’ lackluster defense in week 4 – can he put up 17 or more points?
Running Backs
Tevin Coleman (ATL, RB)
Week 1 vs. TB – 8/22yds, 0 TD, 5rec, 95yds, 0 TD, 11.70pts
Week 2 @OAK – 12/46yds, 1 TD, 2rec, 25yds, 0 TD, 13.10pts
Week 3 @NO – 12/42yds, 3 TD, 3rec, 47yds, 0 TD, 26.90pts
Coleman has been more involved in the Falcons’ offense this year and it doesn’t look like that will change anytime soon. He does go up against the Panthers’ defense in week 4, however. Will Coleman be able to continue this burst of productivity and put up 17 or more points?
Theo Riddick (DET, RB)
Week 1 @IND – 7/45yds, 1 TD, 5rec, 63yds, 1 TD, 22.80pts
Week 2 vs. TEN – 11/37yds, 0 TD, 4rec, 28yds, 0 TD, 6.50pts
Week 3 @GB – 10/9yds, 0 TD, 7rec, 39yds, 0 TD, 4.80pts
Riddick was a huge waiver wire add after week 1’s performance, and was hyped up in the fantasy football world after it was revealed that lead back Ameer Abdullah may miss the entire 2016 season. The emergence of Dwayne Washington makes us give pause, however, and his sinking production isn’t helping. Can Riddick step it back up in week against the Bears and score at least 11 points to make himself fantasy relevant once again?
Wide Receivers
Quincy Enunwa (NYJ, WR)
Week 1 vs. CIN – 7/8, 54yds, 1 TD, 11.40pts
Week 2 @BUF – 6/6, 92yds, 0 TD, 9.20pts
Week 3 @KC – 4/11, 37yds, 0 TD, 3.70pts
Enunwa has been a hot topic this year and since Marshall has been a little hobbled by his knee injury in week 2, it was assumed that Enunwa may be able to step up and provide some fantasy production. Granted week 3 was a terrible one for the Jets’ offense in general, but with Marshall getting healthier once more and Fitzpatrick looking to get back on track in week 4 against Seattle is it possible that Enunwa gets lost in the mix? Will he be able to score at least 8 points among all of the other mouths to feed in that offense?
Jamison Crowder (WAS, WR)
Week 1 vs. PIT – 6/10, 58yds, 0 TD, 5.80pts
Week 2 vs. DAL – 6/8, 39yds, 1 TD, 9.90pts
Week 3 @NYG – 4/7, 78yds, 1 TD, 13.80pts
Crowder looks to be supplanting Pierre Garcon as the starting WR opposite DeSean Jackson. He has been displaying great elusiveness and doing everything that the team asks him to. Going up against the Browns in week 4 should certainly not prove any more difficult than the other teams that he has played so far this year. Will he continue this positive trend and put up at least 10 points this week?
Tight End
Jimmy Graham (SEA, TE)
Week 1 vs. MIA – 1/1, 11yds, 0 TD, 1.10pts
Week 2 @LA – 3/4, 42yds, 0 TD, 4.20pts
Week 3 vs. SF - 6/9, 100yds, 1 TD, 14.00pts
Graham had a gruesome injury last year (patellar tendon) that many athletes never return from in full-form. Even when he was healthy he was still having some issues gelling with the Seahawks offense and finding his place within it. Amazingly, it looks like he did make a full recovery and was doing Jimmy Graham-like things in week 3 and playing a full complement of snaps. Can Graham keep it up against the Jets in week 4 with a backup QB and score at least 7 points?
- Details
- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're starting to get deep enough into the season to have a better idea of who most of these rookies are...at least the ones that have been starting the whole year. Zeke Elliott and Sterling Shepard have been weekly fantasy starters. Will Fuller has been good, but a boom-or-bust proposition, and Tajae Sharpe and Michael Thomas have been weekly borderline producers. Thomas is coming off his best game of the season, and Sharpe his worst, but both have been worthy of flex consideration each week. Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz have proven themselves as capable fantasy QB2s, and even streamer QB1s some weeks, but not all of the rookies have been as lucky. Several others have been biding their time and waiting for their opportunity. Will that opportunity come this week? Let's dive into the week 4 matchups and discuss...
Rookies to Start:
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 4: @SF): With the volume Elliott is getting right now, you can't sit him. He got 30 carries in an easy win against the Bears, and while it was frustrating to see him get vultured at the goal line by Dak, Alf, and Dunbar, that won't happen every week. There should be a correction there this week. I would actually fade Zeke in DFS this week though. The 49ers have some drastic home-road splits going back to last season. The Niners allowed 15.4 fantasy points per game at home to RBs in '15 (ESPN standard scoring), which would have been the 18th-most if they did that over the whole season, but they allowed 27.4 per game on the road. That number was 6 points per game worse than the WORST RB defense in the league. They allowed at least 18 in all 8 road games. That split has carried over to 2016. SF gave up just 4 points to the Rams' backs in week one at Levi's Stadium, and 19 per game in weeks 2 and 3 on the road. This game is in San Francisco, so expectations for Zeke should be tempered a little bit. He's still a safe starter in season-long leagues.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Despite the signing of Joique Bell this week, look for Jordan Howard to be the clear lead back for the Bears. The Lions have allowed just 12 points per game to opposing RBs, but that is mainly because they've kept running backs out of the end zone. They've ranked just 27th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, which measures defensive efficiency. Howard really increased his value by showing what he could do as a receiver. Many people thought he would not be a factor as a pass catcher after recording just 11 catches last year at Indiana, but he has 6 catches in the past 2 games. The volume he should see combined with the plus matchup should make Howard a low-end RB2 this week.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 4: vs. NO): It was reported this week that Antonio Gates wasn't close to playing last week in Indy, which means there is a good chance he'll miss week 4 as well. If he sits, Henry should be a great option. Most people will only remember that he fumbled away the Chargers' last chance to win that game, but he was having a fantastic day before that happened. The Saints have actually limited tight ends so far believe it or not, but the list they've faced is hardly inspiring (Walford, Tye, Donnell, Tamme). I expect the Chargers to get Henry involved, and think he'll have a great shot at 60+ yards and a possible TD as long as Gates is out. He's a great streaming option if you're still waiting on Zach Ertz or Tyler Eifert.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 4: @SF): This looks like a juicy matchup on paper, but the 49ers home-road splits apply to quarterbacks as well. They allowed 12.9 points per game to QBs at home in '15 (would have been 4th-fewest), and 19.4 on the road (would have been 4th-most). They didn't allow more than 17 points to any QB they faced in San Francisco. Again, the splits have carried over to '16. Case Keenum put up just 2 points in week one. I don't expect Dak to be shut down quite that badly, but I'd think of him more as a mid-level QB2 rather than a QB1 streamer. There is still upside against a bad 49ers team.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Dwayne should definitely see more work this week after Theo Riddick fell flat on his face in his chance at lead back duties. Riddick managed just 9 yards on 10 carries. Washington managed 38 yards on the same number of carries. Head coach Jim Caldwell blamed the o-line for Riddick's struggles, but Washington was clearly the better between-the-tackles runner. The Lions would be wise to give him more of an opportunity. Riddick should maintain his passing-back role. The Bears rank 26th in run defense DVOA, and allow 20 RB points per game. The increased workload against that machup should put Washington squarely on the flex radar. He'll be better in standard leagues than PPR, and Riddick will be the opposite, but Washington will be more likely to hit paydirt.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 4: @Min.): Shepard has been fantastic through the first 3 games, with a TD or 100 yards in each contest, but the Vikings are the best defense the Giants have faced yet...especially with Xavier Rhodes back in action. Expectations for this week should be a little lower with Shepard. On the plus side, Vikings' slot corner Captain Munnerlyn did struggle to contain Ted Ginn and Corey Brown in week 3, allowing 6 catches for 87 yards on 7 targets thrown his way. Shepard is a borderline WR3 this week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 4: @SD): I would expect Willie Snead to return this week, and while this offense can support 3 pass catchers, the emergence of Coby Fleener in week 3 could hurt Thomas's upside. If Snead is back, Thomas is more of a flex option than a locked in starter. If Snead sits again, Thomas should be a solid WR3 play.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): The Titans' defense has been better than expected, and Fuller had a shaky week 3 performance against New England. Tennessee has allowed just 41 yards per game to WR2s despite 9.4 targets per game in their direction. There is still upside here, but this is just a reminder that there is some boom-or-bust to Fuller's weekly outlook.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 4: @Hou.): The reason that I have Sharpe listed as a borderline option this week is because you can't entirely write off any team's WR1, but I would lean towards sitting Sharpe this week. The Texans have allowed the 4th-fewest WR fantasy points through the first 3 weeks, and Sharpe has been inconsistent in his own right. He could go for 80 yards and a TD, or he could go for less than 40 yards. I'd feel better if I had a safer option.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 4: @ Was.): Kessler was surprisingly sharp last week, and this week he'll face a Washington team that is likely to be without their number 2 corner Bashaud Breeland and slot corner DeAngelo Hall. They will still have Josh Norman, however, and he will likely follow around Terrelle Pryor. If Pryor is taken away, it will severely limit what Kessler is able to do through the air. It would be really hard to trust Kessler as a QB2 unless you were desperate.
QB Jacoby Brissett, NE (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): Jimmy Garoppolo should be back this week and would undoubtedly start if he is. If Brissett did get the nod, he would be a bottom-barrel QB2 option.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 4: @Bal.): Washington has been more effective than Richard in each of the past 2 weeks, but they're part of a full blown 3-way timeshare with Latavius Murray, and facing a tough matchup this week. The Ravens rank 3rd in run defense DVOA, and they've allowed just under 30 receiving yards per game to running backs. This is not the week to bet on either of these backs turning their limited touches into a productive day.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 4: @Hou.): The Texans have been just a middle of the road defense against running backs, but DeMarco Murray has cemented himself as the RB1 in Tennessee for the time being. Henry was out-touched 21-10 by Murray in week 3, and if that holds this week, I'd expect the Heisman winner to put up the typical 40 yards or so he's been putting up. It doesn't help that Murray is dominating the passing game work.
RB Josh Ferguson, IND (Wk. 4: @SD): Ferguson came up empty in a decent spot last week as Robert Turbin was a bigger part of the mix than expected. Turbin punched in a short TD, while Ferguson tallied just 4 touches and 31 yards. He's not involved enough to play at this point.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): Boyd is still playing behind Brandon LaFell, and he faces a defense this week that has allowed 104 receiving yards per game to WR1s, and just 87 receiving yards per game to all other wide receivers. AJ Green should be a great option this week. Tyler Boyd...not so much.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): Mitchell seemed to have a pretty decent rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo the first two weeks, but still put up just 3 catches for 48 yards in those games...and Gronk didn't play in either game. With Gronk back (and presumably not a decoy this time), there just won't be enough volume for Mitchell to be a fantasy factor this week.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Car.): The Panthers have given up 28 fantasy points to TEs over the past 2 weeks, but 13 of them came on one long TD pass to Vance McDonald. Also, it'll be Tamme and not Hooper who would have the best shot at producing. Hooper followed his 3-84 line from week 2 with a zero target game in week 3.
Rookies on Byes: QB Carson Wentz, PHI, RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI - Just a quick aside on Smallwood...although he's on a bye this week, he makes for an interesting waiver wire pickup in deeper leagues. He played great last week after Ryan Mathews left with an injury, and the team will continue to keep Smallwood involved even when Mathews is healthy. The committee will obviously make him tough to predict most weeks, but we've already seen the upside.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Arian Foster will be out again in week 4, and while the Dolphins insist they will stick with a 4-man rotation at RB, I like Drake's chances of the being the best performer of the group. He saw the most touches of the group in week 3 with 11 (the rest of the group totaled 16 touches), and he produced 48 yards with them. He's known as a passing game specialist, and the Bengals are 27th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. There is an opportunity for Drake to make an impact despite the crowded backfield mix.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 4: @Min.): Perkins is mostly a stash for now. Rashad Jennings is still uncertain for this week, but so is the rest of the Giants' backfield. Orleans Darkwa is likely the guy who will get the early down work if Jennings sits, but the injury to Shane Vereen opens up the receiving back role. The only two realistic options to fill it are Bobby Rainey and Perkins. Most experts are expecting Rainey to take over in the short term, but Perkins was an effective receiver out of the backfield at UCLA, and head coach Bob McAdoo spoke this week about the rookie being 'ready to step up.' I expect him to get a shot to make an impact this week, and if he produces he'll earn a bigger role moving forward.
WR Josh Doctson, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Doctson sat out last week with an Achilles injury, but it sounded like it was up in the air whether or not he would play until the last minute. The Browns have given up 2 TDs to wide receivers each week this season, and Doctson was targeted in the end zone 3 times in week 2. If that happens again, I'd expect him to cash in at least one of them. He'll have a solid shot at his first career TD if he plays.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 4: @Was.): Louis is a DFS punt play option this week. His speed makes him a big play waiting to happen, and Washington's banged up secondary will be focused on Terrelle Pryor. As I mentioned in the Cody Kessler breakdown, I'd expect Josh Norman to shadow Pryor whenever possible. Louis appears to have earned a role in 3-wide sets while Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon are out, and he caught 3 passes for 40 yards last week. Washington has allowed 14 pass plays of 20 or more yards this season, tied for 3rd-most in the league. With his big play ability, there will be an opportunity for Louis to have a big day out of nowhere.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough calls with your lineups. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don't end up starting a guy who doesn't suit up, or benching a guy who starts because of an injury to a teammate. If you have any questions, praise, or complaints, hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
- Details
- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when finalizing your weekly confidence pool picks or placing your game wagers? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and can set your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I will briefly go over each match up, explaining the main reasons for my decision on the winner of every game. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders. Confidence pool tip: when making my picks, I start with the easiest game/highest number and work my way down. I then go over my final decisions a couple times as well as making changes during the week as injuries and other factors come into play. Remember, St. Nick always checks that list twice and so should you.
NICK'S WEEK 4 PICKS:
DOLPHINS @ BENGALS - Cincy should of had a win but they did play Denver. The Dolphins almost lost to the Browns at home. I think this game will have above average scoring with Cincinnati coming out on top. Results- Bengals will win and barely cover the spread. Pick the under.
COLTS @ JAGUARS - Two mystery teams playing in a foreign land. So, not only are these squads hard to figure out, neither have home field advantage. I'm going with the Colts on this one because Frank Gore and the running game seems more crisp than that of the Jags and I'm also impressed with the play of tight ends Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle. Colts will pull off a close win and cover the close spread. I'm going with the over since both defenses will probably miss the plane to London.
BILLS @ PATRIOTS - What's to be said here? The Pats are not going to lose in Foxboro, no matter who is under center, and the under-achieving Bills pulled off a miracle last week against a very good team to save their coach's job. The Patriots will win decisively and cover the spread without a problem. The over might be a little high because of last week's charity thrown the Bill's way.
SEAHAWKS @ JETS - I'm a realist... and I really don't think Russel Wilson will play much, if at all. If he suits up and plays, he will be ineffective. I also think the Jets had a hiccup and are a much better team than Ryan Fitzpatrick and the rest of the guys showed against the Chiefs last week. Seattle still has a good defense, but so do the Jets. This game will come down to a few big plays. I'm leaning on the Jets to pull off the upset, so put low numbers on confidence pools and stay away from the spread. Definitely the under on this one.
BROWNS @ REDSKINS - The Browns did not look like the Browns we all know and ridicule last week because they played Miami, a Jekyll & Hyde team. They will not fare so well against the Redskins this week, who are a much better team in my opinion and are starting to hit their stride. The Redskins will win but won't cover the spread as the game barely makes the under.
LIONS @ BEARS - This one is so easy, a soccer fan could figure it out. The Bears are banged up and brutal while Matthew Stafford has shifted the Lions offense into high gear. Detroit will come away with a big time division win, so put the big time confidence points on them. Also, take the Lions and the low spread which is a steal. I feel confident in the over even if the game is lopsided.
RAIDERS @ RAVENS - Now that the Ravens have pulled off three games in a row, this game is a little easier to pick. The Raiders have given up a lot of yards this year and will continue to do so against Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing attack. Baltimore will easily cover the spread and would tread with some caution if picking the under, which is where I'm leaning.
TITANS @ TEXANS - The Texans came up empty last week, but it was against the Patriots on the road for a prime time game. I believe they will do a lot better against division rival Titans this week, but put low pool numbers on this one. With J.J. Watt gone, there will be more running lanes for Demarco Murray to enable the Titans to get some offense going. Stay away from the spread but definitely go for the over.
PANTHERS @ FALCONS - Another tight division game? Not exactly. Yeah, I know Matt Ryan and the Falcons are looking good, but Monday night's win came against the worst defense in football. They will have their hands full playing the stout defense of the reigning NFC champion Panthers. Carolina only lost because they faced Minnesota's defense, one of the best in the league. The Panthers should cover the spread and I'd put mid-range pool points on them. Stay away from picking the total points.
BRONCOS @ BUCCANEERS - I think Denver's offense is the real deal and we all know their defense is tops in the AFC. The Bucs are another Jekyll & Hyde team that is hard to put your finger on. I would take Denver in both pools and point spreads, as well as taking the over in this contest.
SAINTS @ CHARGERS - This is a classic example of a game where you want to put low numbers on the confidence pool and stay away from the spread. Both teams put up large amounts of points but have weak defenses. That being said, I would take the over if I touched anything in this game. If I had to pick a winner, it would be San Diego because of home field advantage and a slightly better defense.
RAMS @ CARDINALS - What the hell happened to the Cardinals last week? I want to forget about that game altogether... and so does my wallet. Arrrgh! The Rams have a good defense and obviously a potential star RB in Todd Gurley. The problem is, they are too hard to predict as they are only showing flashes of potential. Arizona should win this game with all of their talented offensive weapons, including their own star RB David Johnson and a tough defense to boot. I would pick the Cardinals covering the spread, low pool points and would stay away from the over/under due to the strong defense play on both sides of the ball.
COWBOYS @ 49ERS - Dallas is on the rise with their rookie QB and RB duo. San Fran are a bunch of jokers with flash in the pan ability. Definitely no consistency to beat a surging Cowboys team. I would pick Dallas all day to cover the spread, mid-to high pool points and would pick the over.
CHIEFS @ STEELERS - Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing loss and the Chiefs finally played like the team people remembered them to be a season ago. The Steelers have home field advantage with Le'Veon Bell returning to action, so Heinz Field will be like playing in an insane asylum if you're the visiting team. I'd go with low pool points and safely take the Steelers and the spread, which is under a touchdown, but would stay away from the over/under.
GIANTS @ VIKINGS - This game would be a lot closer to decide if it weren't for the crazy play of Minnesota's defense and the electricity of playing at home in a new stadium. Sam Bradford looks like he has been with the Vikings for multiple seasons, not multiple weeks and Stefon Diggs has become the talk of the WR world. Now, the Giants have a trio of playmakers in Beckham, Cruz and Shephard, as well as a beefed-up defensive front, but I just don't think it will be enough to get past the Vikings. Stick with low to mid on pool points, safely take Minnesota and the spread, but stay away from the over/under.
- Details
- Written by Jim Hutchins
Week 4 is upon us which means one important thing, bye weeks have come! Only two teams on bye this week but they are the Packers and Eagles which both contain some very fantasy relevant players. If you need some fill ins, or just want to improve your teams depth, the below recommendations should be considered to help your team out.
Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.
Quarterback
Joe Flacco (BAL) - 29% owned - If you are looking for a bye-week fill in at the quarterback position this week, Flacco has an amazing matchup against a Raiders pass defense giving up 340 passing yards per game and the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks through 3 weeks.
Honorable mention: Carson Wentz (PHI) - 20% owned (on bye week 4 but nice matchups weeks 5/6)
Running Back
Jordan Howard (CHI) - 25% owned - Jeremy Langford was carted off the field in week 3 with what is reported to be a high ankle sprain, which means Howard will be leading the Bears backfield for at least the next 3 weeks and potentially permanently if he performs well enough. The Bears matchups the next 3 weeks are against average to below average rushing defenses in the Lions, Colts and Jaguars. I consider Howard the waiver add of the week.
Orleans Darkwa (NYG) - 3% owned - With Rashad Jennings sitting out, Darkwa split carries with Shane Vereen in week 3 and ended up with 53 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries as well as a reception for 9 yards. It was reported today that Vereen will now miss the rest of the season with a triceps injury which means Darkwa will be the lead back for however long Jennings remains out. Whenever Jennings returns Darkwa should still hold some minor fantasy relevance.
Honorable mention: Cameron Artis-Payne (CAR) - 19% owned
Wide Receiver
Terrelle Pryor Sr. (CLE) - 23% owned - Pryor was putting up fantasy points every way imaginable against the Dolphins catching 8 out of 14 targets for 144 yards, rushing 4 times for 21 yards and completing 3 out of 5 passes for 35 yards. I'm expecting these kind of stat lines won't be showing up after Josh McCown and Josh Gordon get back in the lineup, but he's definitely worth an add and start in all formats for week 4.
Steve Smith Sr. (BAL) - 39% owned - Although he didn't make it into the end zone in week 3, Smith caught 8 of 11 targets for 87 yards. He has a great matchup against an Oakland defense giving up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so you can expect a big game here.
Honorable mention: Cole Beasley (DAL) - 21% owned
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph (MIN) - 42% owned - Rudolph looks to be a focal point of the Vikings offense this season which is shown by his 166 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 of 26 targets. These stats make him good for second most fantasy points and targets at the tight end position behind only Greg Olsen.
Honorable mention: Cameron Brate (TB) - 2% owned
Defense/Special Teams
Washington Redskins (WAS) - 7% owned - Recommending the Redskins as a streaming defense this week since they go up against Cleveland who still will be starting their 3rd string rookie quarterback in Cody Kessler. Look for a few freebie turnovers to come the Redskins way this week.
- Details
- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
21 Completions
Joe Flacco completed 21 straight passes on Sunday, just a few shy of the single-game record and 4 short of the overall record (set last year by Ryan Tannehill). Flacco's final stats were 214 passing yards, 2 INT, Zero passing TD's, though he did rush for one. Flacco's team managed to win, despite his best efforts - the two picks came in the fourth quarter. This is a team that should have several receiving options doing well, but unfortunately, over 118 total attempts Flacco has only 774 yards.
8 Sacks
The Vikings sacked Cam Newton 8 times on their way to the most impressive road victory of the season thus far across the league. The Vikings DST is for real as well, putting up 26 points in Week 3 (which was still blown away by KC). The Vikings defense, when combined with an average offense at best, can take this team to the NFC championship. With wins over Green Bay and at Carolina, it looks like the road to the championship might just go through Minnesota.
6 Interceptions
14% of the 44 passes that Ryan Fitzpatrick threw on Sunday wound up in the hands of the Chiefs defenders. With that many turnovers, it's amazing that the Chiefs didn't score more points - though they did have two defensive TD's, on their way to 35 fantasy points (they had 8 over two weeks going into the game). Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, has a very tough road ahead of him - his next three games are vs Sea, @ Pit, and @ Ari.
28.98 Points
Stand up and take a bow if you started Trevor Siemian for your fantasy team. Nobody's standing? Maybe that's because he's only owned in 6% of Yahoo leagues. Sure to be this week's knee-jerk reactionary pickup, we mustn't slight Siemian's impressive 312 yards through the air and 4 TD's to go with zero turnovers. He's also not the only rookie (I guess he's technically not a rookie, anyways) in the top 5 this week. Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz both put up over 21 points and while they may be passed by Brees and Ryan tonight - they had impressive performances nonetheless.
30 Games
Odell Beckham Jr. became the fastest player to 200 receptions, completing the feat in only 30 games. He beat out his former college teammate, Jarvis Landry (33 games), putting up 7 receptions for 121 yards in a far too over-hyped matchup with Josh Norman. For his career, Beckham has 206 receptions, 25 TD's (though none this season) and 3035 yards receiving. He's keeping his great this season and is currently in the top 10 of both receptions and receiving yards for WR's.
- Details
- Written by Matt Cochrane
Welcome back to another year of survivor pool action and shattered dreams. I held off continuing this column in fear of the article jinx but was coaxed into bringing it back by popular demand. This year my pool features 871 total entries, which has slimmed down to 576 after two weeks of games.
I narrowly avoided a week 1 devastation when the Seattle Seahawks squeaked out a victory against the Miami Dolphins (12-10) and cruised to an easy victory in week 2 when the Carolina Panthers beat the San Francisco 49ers (46-27). Which leads us to week 3 of the season.
The pick this week is the Miami Dolphins at home against the Cleveland Browns. The fins are tied with Seattle as the most heavily favored team this week by 9.5 points.
Cleveland has been a walking infirmary. Their first two games saw them lose their top two quarterbacks and number one draft pick wide receiver Corey Coleman. With raw rookie quarterback Cody Kessler suiting up for his first NFL action and no Josh Gordon for one more week, this should be an easy victory for the Dolphins.
The Dolphins have looked impressive in two straight narrow losses and will look to capitalize on this opportunity. I would even take the Dolphins and the points, which I tend to avoid when the spread is over a touchdown.
Good luck! And Drink Five!