Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Jason Evans
Week 8 is upon us, and this is the first week with some major byes. Six teams are taking the week off: Ravens, Steelers, Giants, 49ers, Rams and the Dolphins. We're not losing tons of fantasy players, and really a lot of them could use a week off - see Odell Beckham and Ben Roethlisberger. But I digress, we're here for Week 8! This week, look for Derek Carr to have a big day capping off his Florida vacation. Matt Jones, Julian Edelman and Vernon Davis (if there's no Jordan Reed) all deserve to be in your lineup as well.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're officially past the halfway point of the fantasy regular season. Hopefully you're in good playoff position, but if you aren't, there is still a little time to turn it around. Week 8 won't be an easy one for many of you. There are 6 teams on a bye this week, including several prominent running backs and wide receivers whose absences will have to be survived to get a W. It's possible there might be a rookie who can help you get through, so let's jump right in and talk about the matchups for the rookies this week...
Rookies to Start:
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): You're not sitting him. Zeke has run for over 130 yards in each of the past 4 games and has had a bye week to rest up and get ready for this one. The Eagles have had a decent run defense on the year, but they rank a middling 13th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA statistic which measures efficiency, and they've allowed opposing running backs to put up 324 rushing yards in the past 2 games. He's definitely a high-end RB1 again this week, especially with Le'Veon, Gurley, Hyde, and the suddenly incredible Jay Ajayi on bye.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. SD): It appeared that Booker had worked his way in to a full timeshare with CJ Anderson last week, but it doesn’t look like that will continue to be the case in week 8. That’s because CJ has suffered an ankle injury that may keep him out a several weeks, leaving all of the work to Booker. If he’s available in your league still, run to your waiver wire to claim him. It’s a ripe matchup for Devontae this week. The Chargers allow the 7th-most RB fantasy points per game, rank 18th in run defense DVOA, and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. With so many top backs out on byes this week, Booker has RB1 upside and should be started with confidence.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. vs. Det.): Suggesting that you start Fuller requires a bit of leap of faith given his lack of production over the past few weeks, but I'm willing to take that leap. The Lions have allowed a league-worst 117.3 QB rating to opposing passers, and have also allowed 18 TD passes, which is tied for the most in the league. The Lions have allowed 20+ fantasy points (all point totals from ESPN standard scoring) to 5 of the 7 QBs they've faced and 16 each to the other 2. To make matters worse, the Lions are likely going to be missing their top corner Darius Slay. They'll manage to even make Brock Osweiler look good. Fuller should have plenty of opportunity for his best day in weeks. He should be a WR3 this week with upside for more.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): The Eagles’ pass defense has been fairly stingy so far this year, but they’ve allowed 6 TD passes in their past 3 games. They’ve also allowed 13.3 QB points per game on the road. I know, that isn’t a big number, but it’s much bigger than the 6.7 they’ve allowed at home. Meanwhile, Prescott has been rock steady piloting this balanced offense, tallying at least 17 points in each of the past 5 games. With so many byes this week, Dak is right on borderline of QB1 and QB2 despite a tough paper matchup.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Wentz has been struggling in his past 2 contests, but with 6 byes this week it’s hard to make a case that he’s not usable in 2-QB leagues. The Cowboys have allowed at least 11 QB points and at least 1 TD pass in all 6 games they’ve played this year. They also rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Wentz should be a low-end QB2 with a fairly safe floor but limited upside.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Cin. in London): Kelley salvaged a light workload in week 7 with a short receiving TD, but he should see more volume this week with Matt Jones looking less and less likely to play in London. The matchup isn’t as daunting as the Bengals would have been in past seasons. They rank just 22nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed 78 RB fantasy points in the past 3 weeks to Dallas, New England and Cleveland (26.7 points per game). I would expect Chris Thompson to handle some of the carries as well if Jones is out, and he already handles all of the passing down work, so it won’t quite be a full workload for Kelley. As long as Jones is out, Kelley should still get enough volume to be a borderline RB2 this week.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Howard’s role is in doubt after an apparent benching last week in the second half of a close game against Green Bay (it was close at halftime). He was out-touched by Ka’Deem Carey 11-7 for the game, but I would expect things to swing back in his favor this week. Howard should lead the backfield in touches on Monday, and he’s playable despite a tough matchup with the Vikings. While Minnesota allows just 67 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, they also allow 53 RB receiving yards per game. Ka’Deem Carey has just 11 career receptions over 3 seasons. Jordan Howard has 14 so far this season. Howard should see the bulk of the receiving work, and thanks to that receiving volume he should be on the RB2/RB3 borderline in a thin week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 8: vs. Sea.): Thomas has been the most productive Saints WR over the past 4 weeks, averaging 6.5 catches for 81 yards per week with 3 TDs in that span. The Seahawks ‘Legion of Boom’ has always been a defense to avoid with fantasy receivers, but they’ve shown some vulnerability of late and the Saints’ passing attack is always deadly at home. Seattle has allowed 28 WR points per game over the past 3 games and Brees has thrown for at least 376 yards in all 3 home games this year. The sledding won’t be easy for Thomas, as Seattle’s best corners play on the perimeter, but there is definitely a chance for success this week. Thomas is should be right on the WR3 borderline.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 8: @Den.): I’d probably lean towards sitting Henry this week if he plays, but he certainly had success in this matchup 2 weeks ago (6-83-1). He did enter into the concussion protocol after the game last Sunday, but seems to be trending in the right direction to play in Denver. His playing time will continue to be cut into as Antonio Gates gets healthier, but you have to attack the Broncos with tight ends since their corners are so good. I’d expect the Broncos to make stopping Henry a bigger priority this time around, but he’s still likely a top-15 TE play for the week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Kevin Hogan, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): At this point all signs are indicating that Josh McCown will be the man under center for the Browns this weekend, but I would avoid Hogan if he winds up getting the nod. The matchup is a good one, but Hogan was just 12-for-24 passing last week, tallying 100 yards. That equates to a pathetic 4.16 yards per attempt. I wouldn’t expect the Jets to allow him to beat them with his legs the way the Bengals did either. I wouldn’t be able to trust Hogan even in a 2-QB league this week. Luckily, it’s unlikely to matter with McCown due back.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 8: @TB): Washington has clearly established himself as the number 2 back ahead of Richard after being in a pretty even timeshare previously, but he still only saw 6 touches himself in week 7. Latavius Murray seems to be back in the lead back role after missing a game with injury. Murray dominated the rushing attempts and scored 2 TDs last weekend as Oakland played from comfortably ahead of Jacksonville. The Vegas odds project a closer game this week, so there may be some additional passing work for Washington in a plus matchup, but he'll be tough to trust coming off last week's workload. I'd steer clear.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Keep an eye on Smallwood's workload this week. You can't play him this week since he's seen just 4 carries in each of the past 2 games and faces a tough matchup Sunday, but he might start to see a bigger share of the work thanks to some recent fumbling issues for Ryan Mathews. If there is an uptick in usage, Smallwood may be worth a stash going forward.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Jax.): If you need an explanation for why you shouldn't play Derrick Henry, you don't own him on any teams. There's no reason to consider him. If you need a bye fill-in in a deep league, and were considering picking up Henry, think better of it and leave him on the wire.
RB Don Jackson, GB (Wk. 8: @Atl.): It looks like this backfield will belong to Ty Montgomery until James Starks gets healthy enough to take over again. Jackson saw just 2 carries in his debut last Thursday, and left the game with an ankle injury. If the Packers need someone other than Montgomery to handle the between-the-tackles work, my money would be on Knile Davis to see the bulk of those carries, not Jackson.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. Jax.): Sharpe had his best performance since week one last Sunday, and he totaled just 4 catches and 59 yards. There's nothing to see here. Delanie Walker remains the only pass-catcher to own in Tennessee.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Louis saw just 3 targets last week with Cody Kessler knocked out by a concussion. He saw 9 the previous week. The entire passing attack suffered with Kevin Hogan under center. It looks like it will be Josh McCown at QB this week, but the only pass catcher we know that’s a plus for is Gary Barnidge. Louis has deep speed, and the Jets have proven to be burnable on the deep ball several times this year, but it’ll be hard to count on Louis this week. His production and target share have been inconsistent, and he’s never caught a pass from McCown. With Terrelle Pryor getting healthier and a possible return for Corey Coleman this week, Louis will likely be pushed further down in the pecking order.
WR Chester Rogers, IND (Wk. 8: vs. KC): Rogers fell flat last week in a spot where it looked like he would get plenty of opportunity. With Phillip Dorsett and Dwayne Allen out, he tallied just 2 catches and 30 yards despite Andrew Luck throwing for 353 yards. Dorsett returns this week, and Donte Moncrief is expected back as well. That would drop Rogers to the WR4 role and render him useless for fantasy purposes.
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Mitchell isn’t quite stash-worthy yet, but it’s worth noting that he played almost as many snaps as Chris Hogan in week 7. He wasn’t targeted on any of them, but it’s only a matter of time before he sees more work. He’s a guy to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Washington looks set to return this week, and he will likely push Zach Zenner to the bench. This situation is still a bit of a mess with 4 backs (3 if Riddick sits again this week), but I buy into Washington’s talent as the early down back. Zenner and Forsett were thoroughly uninspiring last week with Washington and Riddick both sidelined, so I would expect Dwayne to have a role immediately. The Texans have allowed 8 RB rushing scores in 7 games and rank 26th in run defense DVOA. It would be hard to pull the trigger in season long leagues, but Washington should cost the minimum in DFS and could be a decent punt play in tournaments.
RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 8: @NO): CJ is a potential stash now that the other CJ has been sent packing. Spiller was released, and Prosise should assume the passing down role. There hasn’t been a ton of volume with Christine Michael hogging most of the RB touches, but Prosise did play 16 snaps last week. He only saw 3 touches, but the matchup this week is one that could have a lot more action for the former college WR. The Saints have allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. Obviously it would be hard to trust a guy in your lineup who’s had just 5 touches all year. Like I said, I view him more as a stash than a guy to play this week, but don’t be surprised if he has a decent game out of nowhere.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Coleman may finally return this week from a broken hand that has sidelined him for more than a month. His status is still up in the air, but he returns to a plum matchup if he’s able to go. There’s always risk when you play a guy coming off a long layoff (especially when the QB is coming off a layoff as well), but the Jets rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, allow the 4th-most WR fantasy points, and have allowed 9 passes of 40 or more yards (tied for most in the league). One deep ball would make Coleman worthwhile. He could be a usable WR3 if you are in a pinch. Just make sure he’s playing before pulling the trigger.
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 8: @Cle.): Anderson appears to have moved back ahead of Charone Peake and Jalin Marshall in the pecking order in New York. Peake had really started to gain traction with 10 targets in week 6, but that number plummeted to 2 in week 7. Anderson didn’t see many more, with 3 targets, but he made the most of his opportunities by catching all 3 for 41 yards and gaining 30 yards on a rushing attempt. I expect Anderson to be the third WR moving forward. While Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa will see the bulk of the passing targets, Anderson might be worth a desperation play in the deepest of deep leagues this week. The Browns allow the 5th-most WR points, and Enunwa’s target share has been slowly dipping over the past few weeks (11,7,7,5 and 4 targets over past 5 games). There’s a chance Anderson picks up some of that slack if the trend continues.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you survive the many byes that you may be dealing with this weekend and pull out a win. Keep a close eye on the injury reports to make sure everyone in your lineup is active on game day. Feel free to reach out via twitter if you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about the things written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Thank you to the Seahawks and Cardinals for teaching us another valuable confidence pool lesson last week! While neither of the team lost, everyone else does! With the tie, since no team won, nobody gets any points for that game.
Sure we had to sit through 75 minutes of two field goals apiece to receive this lesson – but a lesson nonetheless!
Week 8 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
13 – DENVER over San Diego – Denver got back to their winning ways last week against Houston. It will be pretty easy to see more of the same this week.
12 – CINCINNATI over Washington – The Bengals seem to be clicking on all cylinders now. On the flip side, after winning the division last season, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE REDSKINS WILL FINISH LAST IN THE NFC EAST.
11 – DALLAS over Philadelphia – Just like I thought, the league seems to be figuring Carson Wentz out. Dallas even got an extra week to do just that.
10 – TENNESSEE over Jacksonville – It seems like this is a Thursday night game every year. Easy way to get two mediocre at best teams their league required primetime game – one that goes to the home team.
9 – Oakland over TAMPA BAY – Before this year, the Raiders would never be able to win a game on the east coast. Now, it seems like the Raiders would want to move the start time of home games to 10:00 AM.
8 – INDIANAPOLIS over Kansas City – The Colts need this win to show the league that they can compete again.
7 – BUFFALO over New England – It really seems like the Bills have the Pats number. Now they get the division rival at home.
6 – CAROLINA over Arizona – This game was the NFC Championship game last season…just let that sink in for a bit.
5 – HOUSTON over Detroit – The Lions needed a last minute Matthew Stafford touchdown for a home win against the Redskins. This is just what the Texans need right now.
4 – NEW ORLEANS over Seattle – For no other reason the Saints win this won because they are in the Dome…though I obviously don’t have that much confidence in it.
3 – Minnesota over CHICAGO – The lakefront will be rocking for this Monday Night divisional battle … then the game will start … eesh.
2 – Green Bay over ATLANTA – Points…sooooooooo many points in this game! With that being the case, I’ll take Aaron Rodgers over Matt Ryan anyday.
1 – CLEVELAND over New York Jets – This really has seemed to be Cleveland’s week. I can see the Browns borrowing some of the momentum of the Cavs and Indians.
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
Welcome back to the place for all your waiver wire needs. If you have high priority on the wire at this time of the season that means you probably need to turn things around in a hurry if you want to make your fantasy playoffs! Lucky for you this advice should help you out. SIX teams are on bye this week; Ravens, Rams, Dolphins, Giants, Steelers and 49ers. Good luck!
Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.
Quarterback
Alex Smith (KC) - 38% owned - Three weeks in a row of Alex Smith as the Chiefs keep drawing plus matchups. This week he faces the Colts who are allowing 281 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. Smith was the #11 QB in standard scoring last week against the Saints and I expect him to be around that position again this week which is all you can ask for with a bye-week fill-in.
Honorable mention: Brock Osweiler (HOU) - 14% owned
Running Back
Devontae Booker (DEN) - 36% owned - Hopefully you've been paying attention to this article and already have picked up Booker because it might be too late after his MNF breakout performance rushing for 83 yards and one touchdown while playing more snaps than CJ Anderson. The two backs should be considered an even timeshare in a run heavy offense at the moment, but if Anderson falters in the upcoming games we should see Booker taking more of a lead role.
Matt Asiata (MIN) - 21% owned - There's a chance Jerick McKinnon will be out for week 8 after he suffered an ankle injury which would make Asiata a great play as an every down back against the Bears. Somewhat speculative but a good payout if McKinnon does sit out.
Honorable mentions: Zach Zenner (DET) - 8% owned, Chris Thompson (WAS) - 13% owned
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams (GB) - 19% owned - Adams is coming off a monster game on TNF catching 13 of 16 targets for 132 yards and two touchdowns. Expect games like this from him to be possible in the Packers offense, it will just be hard to predict when they will come as he has some pretty talented receivers ahead of him on the depth chart that will usually be soaking up targets.
Jamison Crowder (WAS) - 37% owned - Crowder has been a solid fantasy producer all season long and had his highest yardage last week catching 7 of 9 targets for 108 yards. He's currently the #21 WR in standard scoring so you might want to put him into consideration.
Honorable mentions: Brandon LaFell (CIN) - 13% owned, Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) - 33% owned
Tight End
Jack Doyle (IND) - 31% owned - With Dwayne Allen out last week with a high ankle sprain, Doyle took full advantage and grabbed 9 of 10 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. Allen should be out again this week which means Doyle should against see a decent amount of targets thrown his way.
Honorable mention: Cameron Brate (TB) - 31% owned
Defense/Special Teams
Tennessee Titans (TEN) - 39% owned - Not many streaming options for defense available this week, but I do look the Titans playing against the Jaguars on Thursday night. The Jags are averaging 2 turnovers per game and the Thursday night games have a tendency to be sloppier than usual.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
43 FG In a Row
Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri broke the NFL record and has now made 43 of his last 43 attempts, going back to early in the 2015 season. In fact, Vinatieri started off last season 0/2 and hasn't missed since then. Over this span, he's made 9-50+ yarders, kicked a FG in the last 16 straight games and has an average of 41 yards per attempt during the streak. The oldest player in the NFL is playing better than anyone at his position ever has. If any kicker belongs in the Hall of Fame, it's definitely Vinatieri.
6-6 Tie
Those of us who kept watching compelling, yet bad, football on Sunday night were rewarded with a game full of bad. Missed field goals, stepping out of bounds just shy of the goal line, penalties and more penalties - it had all the bad football that one could want. This was the lowest scoring overtime tie in NFL history and the defensive player of the game definitely goes to the goalposts.
24 Penalties
It wound up being an ugly game in Jacksonville, and the Raiders and Jaguars combined to get 24 penalties for 239 yards and three ejections. To be fair, this whole week featured some awful football. There were 39 turnovers in the 13 games that were played on Sunday, missed kicks all over the place and a 6-6 tie to cap it all off. Don't even get me started on the orangest game of the year, the equally hard to watch Bengals-Browns game.
214 Rush Yards
Jay Ajayi was fantastic yet again, putting up 214 yards on 29 carries and became just the 4th player in NFL history to have back-to-back games of 200+ rushing yards. He now leads the league with 6.3 yards per attempt and has already vaulted himself into the top 10 RB's this seasons. Ajayi does have the last two games to thank for that, but his role on the team indicates that won't be a fluke (though 200+ yards is more than anyone can ask for). He plays the Jets after a bye this week, look for him to keep going strong when they return.
6 Quarterbacks
So far this season, the Browns have had six different guys play quarterback for them. Kevin Hogan is the most recent player this season to take the mantle of Browns QB. Going 12/24 for 100 yards passing and 2 INT, he fits right in with the Browns this season. He did put a little spark into the offense, however, by rushing for 104 yards and a TD. The Browns are probably hoping that McCown can return asap, but don't expect much to get better in Cleveland, as far as football is concerned.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
This week’s survivor pick is the Green Bay Packers! Just kidding! Good on you if you made the early pick on the Thursday night game. I jumped on the Packers -4.5 halftime line to make an easy buck when it was clear Matt Barkley was going to be finishing the game.
The Browns gave us a little scare at the end there last week against the Titans. I was very confident with the Titans up 28-13 with around 2 minutes left in the fourth. The Browns finish that drive with a TD but fail to convert the 2. Two possession game, still feeling great when miraculously the Browns recover an onside and drive to another TD with 27 seconds left. But alas lightning only struck once and the Titans recovered the 2nd onside attempt to hold on 28-26.
Pittsburgh losing to Miami knocked many people out last week but if you are still alive here's who I like this week. New England seems like a pretty safe bet facing the aforementioned Steeler without Ben Roethlisberger. I can’t imagine the Patriots letting this one slip away. However I have already used that team in week 4. Here is a quick recap of my selections.
Week Pick
1 Seattle
2 Carolina
3 Miami
4 New England
5 Arizona
6 Tennessee
Denver should be another good option. I believe they show the world why they moved on from Brock in this one. As long as Trevor Siemian doesn't gift the Texans the game and the Broncos offense shows up in a modest form, they shouldn't have trouble handling the Texans.
However my pick will be the Cincinnati Bengals over the Cleveland Browns. The Bengals have been given a golden ticket to re-enter the division race. It is looking like they will be the only team in the division this week fielding their opening day starting QB. Last year’s division winner will get right vs the pathetic Cleveland Browns and try to distance themselves from the Steelers while Big Ben is out. Start your Bengals fantasy players, the only team letting up more points than the Browns are the 49ers.
Cheers, Drink Five!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're nearly halfway through the fantasy regular season, so hopefully your teams have gotten out of the gate quickly enough to still feel like a contender at this point. With Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott on bye this week, the list of rookies I would tell you to confidently start is a bit light for week 7.
Outside of Zeke and Dak, it's been a bit of a down year for the rookies. Whether we're talking about high picks (Laquon Treadwell, Josh Doctson, Derrick Henry, Jared Goff), or just rookies who were hyped up by the fantasy community (Kenneth Dixon, CJ Prosise, Tyler Boyd), things just haven't gone as planned for most of the rookies. Meanwhile, veteran players who were long buried and forgotten by the fantasy community like Christine Michael, Jacquizz Rodgers, Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright and Terrelle Pryor have re-emerged.
While the rookies haven't lived up to the hype so far, I do expect we'll see more flashes from them as the season wears on. This week, since there are so few bankable rookies to start, I took a look at some lesser known deep-league sleepers and stashes to keep an eye on this week and going forward. Let's dive into the week 7 matchups...
Rookies to Start:
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 7: @Atl.): Henry will remain a top-10 TE play as long as Antonio Gates is at less than 100%. He's scored a touchdown in each of the past 3 games, and has been a focal point of the passing game. This week he gets to face off with a Falcons' defense that has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs (ESPN standard scoring), and ranks 22nd in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat on throws to opposing tight ends. There's always the risk that Gates's role will increase again, but I'd feel comfortable starting Henry again this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 7: @Cin.): Kessler is a streaming option for 2-QB leagues this week. Head coach Hue Jackson has officially named Kessler the team’s starter (regardless of Josh McCown’s status) after playing his best game of the season. This week, he faces a Bengals team that has allowed the 3rd most passing TDs, the 2nd highest QB rating, and the 8th-most QB fantasy points in the league. If Terrelle Pryor ends up sitting, it drops Kessler’s outlook a bit, but if he plays he has top-15 upside.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 7: @GB): Howard was able to save a sub-par game last week with a touchdown, but he ceded more carries than you would like to Ka’Deem Carey and he faces a much tougher matchup this week. The Packers rank 3rd in run defense DVOA despite getting torched by Ezekiel Elliott last week. Howard is still in play this week, but you need to temper your expectations. He would need a bit more receiving production to hit his ceiling in this one and should be treated as more of an RB3. He plays tonight, so you have to make an early decision here. If you were able to grab Jacquizz Rodgers or Mike Gillislee off the wire this week, I would play one of them over Howard.
RB DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Washington finally seemed to push ahead of Jalen Richard last week in the Raiders’ backfield platoon, playing the majority of the snaps and out-touching Richard 10-to-6. Latavius Murray has been limited in practice this week and is shaping up to be a possible game-time decision. If he sits, there is some upside in this matchup. The Jaguars rank 27th in run defense DVOA, and Washington has at least been consistent, putting up at least 46 scrimmage yards in each of his past 5 games. If you’re hard up for a starter this week with so many RB injuries, Washington could make for a decent floor play if Latavius remains sidelined again.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 7: @KC): Thomas has been outstanding of late, putting up at least 4 catches and a TD in each of the past 3 games, and topping 70 yards in 2 of them. The problem is that Willie Snead was out or limited in 2 of those 3 games, the Saints are on the road (where Brees is significantly worse than at home), and the Chiefs rank 6th in pass defense DVOA (despite allowing the 12th-most WR points). This offense will still throw enough for Thomas to have some upside, but he’s a WR3 option at best.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 7: @LA): Shep has been a pretty big letdown over the past few weeks, but he should have a great opportunity to get back on track this week. The Rams have allowed more catches to slot WRs than any other team in the league, and have allowed the following WR lines to predominantly slot guys: Adam Humphries 9-100, Larry Fitzgerald 5-62, Anquan Boldin 8-60-1, and Jeremy Kerley 7-61. Shepard should actually be a pretty solid floor WR3 in PPR, and more of a borderline option in standard leagues. Even through his struggles, Shepard has still been targeted at least 7 times in each of the past 5 games. Those looks are bound to start leading to production, and I think that starts this week.
WR Chester Rogers, IND (Wk. 7: @Ten.): The Colts have been desperate for a number 2 wide receiver since Donte Moncrief went down with injury. Phillip Dorsett hasn’t been the answer and may be out this week, and tight end Dwayne Allen is likely to miss the game as well. Rogers has performed admirably as a fill-in, and he should have the most opportunity he’s had yet with so many pass-catchers sidelined. Rogers played 53 snaps last week and put up a 4-63 line. While the Titans have been pretty good vs. wide receivers this season, they did just allow 18-202-2 to the Cleveland WRs. Hilton should still be a target hog, but Rogers could be a decent WR3 play this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): Wentz is coming off his worst start of the year, and this week he gets to face off with the defense allowing the 5th-fewest points to opposing QBs. The big thing that worries me with Wentz is the suspension of Lane Johnson. Ryan Kerrigan basically set up a residence in the Eagles' backfield last week, and the Vikings have the bodies up front to cause the same kind of trouble in Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. Add in the fact that the Vikings are coming off a bye and Jordan Matthews is banged up this week, and it doesn't look good for Wentz. I'd be nervous to even play him as a low-end QB2.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Booker managed to out-rush CJ Anderson last week on far fewer carries, and many people think more touches are headed his way after his coach said he wants Booker to be more involved. I still think CJ is the lead back here and will see significantly more snaps than Booker. Anderson had 47 yards and a TD called back by 3 Bronco penalties last week. He would have had a robust 118 yards and a TD without those penalties on just 17 touches. Booker will have to continue making an impact in limited opportunities to provide any real fantasy value this week. I’d avoid him in most leagues.
RB Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Richard has had bigger games than DeAndre Washington this season, but he’s been less consistent. While Washington has tallied 46 or more yards in 5 straight games, Richard has only reached that mark twice all year. Granted, he put up 95 and 97 yards in those contests, but there is just too much downside here after he gained just 13 yards on 6 touches last week.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): This is a great matchup, with the Colts allowing the 2nd-most RB fantasy points in the league, but the workload just hasn't been usable for fantasy purposes. He might be worth trotting out as a TD dart throw...if the Titans ever used him when they got close to scoring. So far they haven't. On the year Henry has seen just 2 carries and zero passing targets in the red zone while DeMarco Murray has seen 17 carries and 9 targets there. Without the TD upside, there isn't much to like about playing Henry.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 7: @Det.): The Lions still haven't allowed a running back to score a rushing TD, and Kelley hasn't caught a single pass all year. It's safe to say he's unlikely to find the end zone. The increased workload that Coach Jay Gruden talked about last week turned out to be 5 carries instead of the 3 he saw in week 5. While he did turn those 5 carries into 59 yards, that's not the kind of volume you want to trust in your lineup and Matt Jones is playing too well for Kelley to steal a much larger piece of the load.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): The Vikings have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, and Smallwood hasn’t had much of a role lately. He put up 20 yards on 5 touches last week, and played just 1 snap in the previous game. He came up with a punt return TD last week, but that isn’t the kind of thing that will be duplicated. He’s best left out of any lineups this week.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 7: @LA): Perkins looked decent on the 4 touches he saw in week 6, gaining 26 yards, but I repeat: He saw just 4 touches. It's promising for Perkins that Orleans Darkwa saw zero, but for now Perkins is still comfortably behind Jennings and Rainey in the pecking order. Steer clear for the time being.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 7: @Den.): Fuller has been banged up the past couple weeks, and this week gets to face off with a Broncos’ defense that is allowing the fewest WR fantasy points in the league. While it seems likely that Fuller is able to play, I wouldn’t count on him doing much. He gets by on his speed, and if his hamstrings are anything less than 100%, I’d expect him to struggle in a big way. I just wouldn’t be able to trust him in my lineups.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): You don't need me to tell you that you can't start a guy who has totaled just 32 yards in 3 weeks against the Texans, Dolphins and Browns. That's hardly a murderer’s row of defenses. The coaching staff has talked about Sharpe regressing of late, and he may have squandered his opportunity to be the Titans' WR1 with the breakout game of Kendall Wright last weekend.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, & Cheap DFS Plays:
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 7: vs. Was.): He obviously has to play to be a sleeper this week, but all of the signs are pointing to him suiting up. The Lions’ backfield appears to be a bit of a 4-way mess, so you kind of have to read the tea leaves here, but Washington looks like the best option of the group this week. Theo Riddick seems to be less than 50-50 to play this week, and despite a decent week 6 performance, I’d expect Zach Zenner to be relegated to backup duties once again. Justin Forsett will likely take over the third down receiving back role with Riddick out, and Washington would then assume most of the early down work. Washington was just getting going this year before his ankle injury sidelined him, and this week he gets to face a defense that ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 7th-most running back fantasy points. If Riddick sits, Washington has RB2 upside this week.
RB Don Jackson, GB (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Things in the Green Bay Packers’ backfield have rapidly devolved with the injuries to Eddie Lacy (placed on IR) and James Starks (out at least a month after a knee scope). The Packers have traded for Knile Davis and signed Jackson from the practice squad. Wide receiver Ty Montgomery also entered the backfield mix by impressing on 22 snaps in that role last week after Lacy was hurt (6 catches for 52 yards out of the backfield). There have been conflicting reports from two different Packers beat writers this week, one suggesting that Montgomery would get the majority of the backfield snaps, the other suggesting it will be Jackson. I’d expect game script to dictate it. If the Packers are playing from behind or in a close game, Montgomery will likely see more work than Jackson, and vice versa if they play from ahead. The Packers are at home, and are a touchdown favorite, so if things go according to plan it should favor the rookie. The Bears rank 20th in run defense DVOA, so if he sees 15 carries, he should be productive enough to be on the RB2/RB3 borderline. At the very least, he should be owned with both Lacy and Starks out an extended period.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Boyd managed to put up 77 yards last weekend against the Patriots, but the Bengals spent much of that game playing catch up. They figure to play from ahead this week as a 10-point favorite at home against the Browns. Overall passing volume should be down, but the Browns have struggled to contain slot receivers. They’ve given up lines of 7-114-1 to Jordan Matthews and 7-120-1 to Jarvis Landry. You could argue that those guys are better than the average slot receiver, but last week they allowed 8-133-1 to Kendall Wright. There won’t be a ton of volume for Boyd, but he’s a sneaky bet to score a TD this week.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 7: @Cin.): Louis seems to have established himself as the WR2 on this team as long as Corey Coleman is sidelined. He saw a season-high 9 targets in week 6, and this week faces a Cincinnati team that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA on throws to the opposing number 2 wide receiver. They’ve allowed TDs to #2 guys Eric Decker and Kenny Stills and two to Emmanuel Sanders (Demaryius also scored a TD vs. Cincy if you consider Sanders their number 1). Some of this is moot if Terrelle Pryor winds up not playing this week, since Louis would be the de facto number one, but in that case he would see enough volume that his outlook would be similar. Louis is legitimately in play as a WR3 in deeper leagues this week.
WR Charone Peake, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): Peake seemed to take a step forward as the Jets’ WR3 last week, and the Ravens have allowed over 31 points per game to opposing WRs in the past 5 games (non-PPR). Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa will certainly benefit the most from the Eric Decker injury, but Peake saw 10 targets last week and looks to at least be ahead of Robby Anderson and Jalin Marshall on the depth chart for now. With Geno under center, there may be a little extra chemistry between these two since they have both been playing with the 2nd team offense. Peake is in play as a DFS tournament punt option or a WR3 in really deep leagues.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of the tougher lineup decisions you're facing this week. As usual, a lot of these outlooks hinge on the injury status of other players on these teams, so make sure and keep an eye on the injury report to see if guys like Latavius Murray, Theo Riddick, Phillip Dorsett, etc. are going to play. If you have any specific questions, or want to yell at me about any of the info above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Our confidence pool is now on par with the rest of the league. There are no more teams that I have correctly picked every game and no team that I have not picked a game right on. This is a game of parity, and the confidence pool represents that quite well.
Let’s keep it moving!
Week 7 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
15 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – I feel that any team that plays in Foxboro should be able to play the Browns at home the following week…only seems fair.
14 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – The Packers are down three cornerbacks and two running backs in this short week…luckily they’re hosting the Bears.
13 – ATLANTA over San Diego – Got a Falcons game right! The Chargers will make two in a row pretty easy to obtain.
12 – KANSAS CITY over New Orleans – If Jamaal Charles stays healthy the rest of the year, it will be hard to stop the Chiefs running game.
11 – DENVER over Houston – Brock Osweiler returns to the city that spurned him. Unfortunately the Broncos will show him that they have more than just moved on.
10 – LOS ANGELES over New York Giants – I love that the league returns to LA…and then takes one of the Rams’ home games and makes it a London game.
9 – DETROIT over Washington – A battle of two mediocre teams battling it out…a matchup that will be…meh.
8 – ARIZONA over Seattle – The Cardinals seem to realize they need to ride David Johnson to another divisional championship.
7 – Indianapolis over TENNESSEE – I really expect to see the Colts turn a corner. My BOLD PREDICTION this week is THE COLTS WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH.
6 – Buffalo over MIAMI – The only reason the Bills aren’t higher on the list is because of the Dolphins beating the Steelers last week … somehow.
5 – New England over PITTSBURGH – Speaking of the Steelers, they’re going up against Brady and the Boys without Big Ben under center.
4 – NEW YORK JETS over Baltimore – So Geno Smith will be starting for the Jets and Joe Flacco missed practice on Wednesday. This could be the worst quarterback matchup of the year/decade.
3 – Oakland over JACKSONVILLE – We found out last week that if you somewhat contain the Raiders’ offense, they are pretty easy to beat. I don’t think the Jaguars have the defense to do that though.
2 – Tampa Bay over SAN FRANCISCO – Colin Kaepernick makes his first start back in the bay. Faithful 49er fans will be reminded quickly that the team has a horrendous quarterback situation right now.
1 – PHILADELPHIA over Minnesota – Two of the league’s surprises meet in what could be the game of the week. I don’t think this Vikings team can handle a game in Philly right now.
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders.
Wagering tip of the week: I'm sure you've heard of prop bets. Props are bets that involve multiple forms of action regarding a single game. Everything from betting on a star player's yardage total and if they score a TD, to how many FGs are kicked by a team and the margin of victory. Props are plentiful and if chosen right, can get you some quick cash. For instance, they have props for who will score the first TD in a game. The list usually consist of star players but QBs only count if they have a rushing/receiving TD, not a TD pass. Anyway, make 4-5 wagers based on the top 4-5 players you think will score that 1st TD of the game. If you put $20 on each wager, you are almost guaranteed a profit if one of your guys scores first. Even though you would lose the other bets, the net you will make on your winning ticket will still put you ahead. Another good one is margin of victory. If you are confident a team is going to win by 7-10 pts., make a wager for a 1-7 pt. margin of victory and an 8-14 pt. margin of victory. You will only win one of these bets(your team still has to win by 14 or less), but you will still net a profit. Take advantage of these 'can't lose' wagers and when betting on player production, always check their past weekly stats to get a proper gauge when assessing betting odds. Sometimes I make as many as 15-20 wagers in a particular game. You're looking good even if you only hit half of them. Another great thing about props bets are the fact you can wager on the game without predicting a winner, spread or total score. If you haven't already, give prop bets a try!
WEEK 7 PICKS:
CHICAGO BEARS 23 @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 31 - The reasons I have this game closer than it normally would be, is because Eddie Lacy's injury has the Packer's backfield in a current state of flux. Additionally, their banged up secondary aren't helping things out on the defensive side of the ball either. Tread with caution on the spread, though I'd take the Packers and go with the over. Low confidence points on this close division match up.
NEW YORK GIANTS 30 @ LOS ANGELES RAMS 20 - Game #2 played in London this year. Even though the Giants are the away team, Odell Beckham Jr. is an international star and New York should appear to be defending home turf based on crowd response. I'd go with the Giants and the spread and definitely take the low over. Use caution with confidence points.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 27 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 30 - The Saints have an explosive offense but their sad defense has trouble keeping them in games. The Chiefs have enough of a balanced attack to go back and forth with New Orleans and end up with a victory. It will be a close game, but take the Saints and the points while taking the over with caution. Low to mid confidence points.
BUFFALO BILLS 28 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS 20 - I would pick a higher margin of victory for Buffalo if LeSean McCoy didn't leave practice on Wednesday with a hamstring tweak. The Bills did officially remove themselves from my list of 'Jekyll & Hyde' teams after last weekend's decisive win. The Dolphins are hit or miss and are a team not to be totally discounted. I'd lean towards Buffalo and the spread while staying away from the over/under. Medium pool points on this one.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 30 @ TENNESSEE TITANS 27 - I'm picking the Colts to pull off the upset in this one. They almost got past a tough Texans' defense on the road last week and Indy's offense scores above average points. I guess when your defense is hit or miss, you'll be playing from behind quite often. I think both defenses will let a lot of points be scored and in the end, Andrew Luck and the Colts will come out the victors in this up for grabs division game. Take Indy and the points and go for the over. Very low pool points.
CLEVELAND BROWNS 16 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS 30 - Browns vs. Bengals. It doesn't get any more exciting than this. Not! Cleveland won't be able to muster up much and Cincinnati has too many weapons for the Browns to handle. The spread is high, so cautiously take the Bengals and the over. Definitely go high relating to confidence pools.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 27 @ DETROIT LIONS 34 - Detroit has a shaky defense but their offense will outscore that of Washington's. This game will come down to big plays and I think in the end, the Lions have too many scoring options for the Redskins to handle. I'd safely take Detroit and the spread while picking the over. Low to mid confidence points.
OAKLAND RAIDERS 27 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 30 - This is one of those games that you don't want to lay a lot of bread on. The Raiders have an atrocious defense and a high powered offense. The Jaguars can't be figured out. The potential is there but not the consistency. Anyway, if I had to bet, I would take Jax and the spread and go with the over. Very low pool points.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 27 @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 16 - Fresh off their bi-week, the Vikings will be looking to conquer Philadelphia. The supremacy of Minnesota's defense has the league talking and while the Eagles have a good D themselves, both offenses are too evenly matched leaving the Vikings with the overall team advantage. Take Minnesota and the spread while staying away from the over/under. Medium confidence points.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 27 @ ATLANTA FALCONS 34 - Two high powered offenses against two much to be desired defenses. A lot of points will be scored so take the over. Since I can never trust Atlanta, and you shouldn't as well, stay away from the spread. Low on the pool points.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 20 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 27 - San Fran will get the monkey off their back and get a win this week against a very suspect Tampa Bay team. Grab the Niners and the spread, take the over and put low to mid confidence on this game of scrubs.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 30 @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS 20 - Big Ben. Hurt again. What would of been a great match up is basically going to turn into a one-sided Tom Brady fest. Sure, the Steelers will score points, but not enough from Landry Jones to compete with the Patriots. Safely take New England and the spread and don't be afraid of the over. Mid to high confidence points.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 24 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS 27 - A tough divisional match up including two of the NFC's best defenses. Points will be scored but I don't think it'll get out of hand on either side. Good running on both sides and a slight advantage in the passing game for the Cardinals. Take Arizona and the spread while taking the low over. Put very low pool points on this one.
HOUSTON TEXANS 20 @ DENVER BRONCOS 23 - Another game with two very tough defenses. Both teams have QBs with limited experience at the helm as well. Home field advantage will decide this one. I would take Houston and the points while taking the low over.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Time to set your lineups for your Week 7 matchups. Remember that the Giants and Rams are playing in London on Sunday morning, so those players need to be locked in early. This week we really like Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin to do good things against a bad Oakland Raiders passing defense. We also think you should shy away from DeSean Jackson and Ryan Mathews, at least until they can prove to be more consistent.