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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally here...championship week. Hopefully all of the weeks of waiver wire moves, bold lineup decisions, and Sunday and Monday nail biting have paid off, and you still are left standing with a chance to bring home the title. This week should be all about making the lineup decisions that you can live with even if you happen to lose...does that mean playing it safe and rolling with your stars (even if they haven't necessarily been that this year), or does that mean rolling the dice with a guy you feel good about this week? That's up to you. I'm here to give you a better feel of what to expect from your rookies this week, but it's up to you to pull the trigger and start them. Let's dive in...

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. GB): The matchup isn't ideal, but you aren't sitting him after he dropped 40 points on the Eagles last Sunday (all points listed are in ESPN standard scoring). Johnson has averaged 157 yards from scrimmage and scored 4 TDs in his 3 starts since CJ2K went down, and this week faces a Packers team that ranks 18th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA (measures defensive efficiency). Johnson has RB1 upside again this week (although I doubt he beats the rest of the RB field by 10 points again).

 

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. SD): The matchup is tough this week, as Cooper is likely to draw Jason Verrett and the Chargers allow the 4th fewest WR points in the league, but if you take away the goose egg Amari put up against Denver, he's put up lines of 7-115, 4-69, and 6-120-2 in the past 4 weeks with at least 8 targets in each game. He'll continue to see lots of volume, and the upside is just too high for you to leave Cooper on the bench despite some shaky weeks this season. He's a rock solid WR3 this week.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jameis gets an interesting matchup this week. The Bucs' offensive game plan is typically run-heavy and limits Jameis's passing volume, but the Bears have allowed some solid passing days on limited attempts this year. They've allowed over 20 QB points on fewer than 25 passing attempts 3 times this season, including 32 to Teddy Bridgewater on 20 attempts last Sunday, and have also allowed at least 21 QB points in each of the past 3 contests. I expect the game script to at least be neutral, and the Bucs pass volume to be limited again, but Jameis has shown a safe QB2 floor, and there is upside for a top-10 QB day.

 

RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 16: vs. Dal.): There is a fear that Karlos will split touches with Mike Gillislee after Gillislee ran so well over the past few weeks, but Williams is the one who is built to be an every down back and I'd expect him to lead the committee. The Cowboys rank 27th in run DVOA, and Karlos averaged about 10 yards per carry in his return from a two-week injury absence. If Karlos is able to take the lead, I like his chances to return RB2 value and get back into the end zone for the first time since week 10.

 

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 16: @Sea.): The matchup is brutal and we've seen a low floor for Gurley, but his talent and volume give him some flex appeal. The Rams do have some history of being able to run on the Seahawks under Jeff Fisher, getting stat lines of 18-85-1 from Tre Mason and 26-134 out of Zac Stacy against them in the last two seasons, but those games were in St. Louis. This one is in Seattle. I'd lean towards sitting Gurley if you have better options.

 

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 16: vs. SF): Abdullah is coming off his best game of the year, and the 49ers run defense has been abysmal on the road. San Francisco allows 28.7 points per game to opposing RBs on the road (at least 22 in all 7 road games). They also rank 24th in run DVOA for the year. Abdullah was the overall RB14 in a plus matchup on Monday. He looked explosive, and more importantly, Jim Caldwell went back to him after he lost a fumble in the 2nd half. Betting on the Lions' run game is always a risky proposition, but Abdullah could have week-winning upside if you're willing to trust him with the title on the line.

 

RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Although Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton are likely to vulture any short TDs, Artis-Payne should lead the backfield in touches yet again. He out-touched Tolbert and Fozzy Whitaker 16-9 a week ago, and this week faces the Falcons who allow the 4th-most RB fantasy points and rank 21st in run DVOA. Artis-Payne's expected volume should make him a low-end RB2 with the upside for more.

 

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 16: @NO): Yeldon is very iffy for this week, and would likely split touches with Denard Robinson if he's able to give it a go Sunday, but boy does he get a juicy matchup. The Saints have only held 2 teams in their past 10 games under 19 RB points, and they rank 29th in run DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA on throws to running backs. Keep an eye on the injury report and be ready to roll out Yeldon if he seems to be close to 100%.

 

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 16: vs. StL.): Regardless of matchup, Lockett should remain a borderline WR3 in most formats. He's seen 7 targets in each game since Jimmy Graham went down for the year, and in those games he's been the overall WR28, WR4 and WR21. The Rams have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game for the full season, but have allowed 26.5 per game over the past 4, which would be the-4th most. Don't invent reasons not to play Lockett just becuase it's the title week.

 

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Week 15 was just a taste of what DGB is capable of. He's now put up 14-285-1 over the past 3 games on 22 targets. With Mariota out due to a knee injury, you'd expect Green-Beckham's value to take a minor hit this week, but that might not be the case. Zach Mettenberger did target Dorial 7 times after taking over last Sunday, connecting with him 5 times. Dorial actually has a higher catch rate on throws from Mett than he has on throws from Mariota. His talent and role will keep him firmly on the WR3 radar this week.

 

WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): If Rishard Matthews is able to come back from his rib injury this week, this is a situation best avoided for fantasy. If Matthews is out again however, Parker remains in play as a WR3 option. He's topped 80 yards and/or scored a touchdown in 3 of the last 4 games, and the Colts allow the 5th-most WR points in the league. I'd feel more comfortable starting him as a 4th WR in leagues where that's possible, but he has upside once again.

 

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 16: @Min.): I'm almost inclined to list Tye as a 'Rookie to Start' this week, but I can't advocate starting him over proven studs like Barnidge, Olsen, Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed, etc. Tye has been no lower than the overall TE8 in the past 3 weeks, and he should see an uptick in volume this week with Odell Beckham suspended (I expect the suspension to be upheld). Tye should carry a low TE1 floor this week, regardless of the matchup. Every defense that Tye has started against so far has ranked in the top half of the league in limiting TE fantasy points (4th, 8th, 12th, and 15th). The VIkings rank 12th(tie) vs TEs in terms of points allowed, but also are 26th in pass DVOA on throws to tight ends. Tye should be safe to fire up again.

 

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. SD): Walford has seen target totals of 5, 7 and 7 over the past 3 games, and the Chargers rank 31st in pass DVOA against tight ends. His point totals haven't been overwhelming (10 total points in those 3 games), so he's more of a desperation streamer, but there is legitimate upside here.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 16: @TB): Despite double-digit carries in games vs. the 24th, 23rd and 20th ranked run defenses in terms of DVOA, Langford has been held to 5 points in each of the past 3 weeks. Meanwhile, Matt Forte has tallied 17, 10 and 15 in those games. This week, they face the Bucs, who rank 4th in run DVOA. Langford is a desperation flex-play at best.

 

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 16: @Phi.): Jones gets a plus matchup this week, but he has proven to be unreliable over and over again. Every time we're convinced he's taken over as the lead back, Alfred Morris rears his ugly head again. This past weekend it was due to a Jones hip injury, and the rookie is day-to-day as a result of it for this week. That should allow Alfred to continue to mix in prominently in week 16. We've seen the big play ability of Jones a few times this year, and he has higher upside than Jeremy Langford this week due to the matchup, but like Langford, Jones is just a desperation flex option.

 

RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Allen has totaled just 2 fantasy points total in the past two games and was out-carried by Terrance West last week after fumbling for the 2nd straight game. John Harbaugh claims Allen won't be banished to the doghouse this week, but West isn't going to go away and the Steelers allow the 2nd fewest RB fantasy points in the league. Pittsburgh also ranks 7th in run DVOA and 5th in pass DVOA on throws to running backs. Buck isn't worth a starting spot this week.

 

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 16: @KC): Even with an impressive performance last week in a tough matchup with Seattle, Johnson was still just the overall RB27 for the week. I don't expect him to be even that good this week against a Chiefs defense that is in the top-5 in the league at limiting RB fantasy points and also allows the fewest RB receiving yards.

 

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 16: @Atl.): Funchess managed to cash in for those owners who rolled the dice on him finding a touchdown last weekend, but do you really want to make it double-or-nothing against the #2 defense in the league in terms of wide receiver fantasy points allowed? Funchess is once again a low-volume TD dart throw this week, but not one I'd want to roll out there.

 

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): I'm pretty much listing him for comic relief at this point. Agholor followed a 3-62-1 line in week 14 with a goose egg in week 15. There's no chance you're playing him despite a decent matchup.

 

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Ajayi is a DFS punt option again this week. His role is too undefined to trust him in your fantasy title game. Miami's season is limping to the finish, and Ajayi saw some work with the game last week getting out of hand early. This week things may stay a bit closer, but the Colts have allowed 132.5 RB rushing yards per game in the past 4 weeks, and the Dolphins have consistently under-utilized Lamar Miller. Miller is averaging under 12 carries per game. There is a decent chance that Ajayi gets a bigger share of the load than expected once again this week.

 

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Most people would probably still shy away from using Diggs despite his 2 TDs last week. The volume just hasn't been there. He's tallied just 11 catches and 120 yards in the past 4 games. With that said, I have a hunch the Minnesota pass volume is a little higher than we're used to this week. The Giants invite shootouts, and with AP nicked up, the Vikings might be inclined to oblige them. New York has faced 35 or more pass attempts in 12 of their 14 games this year, and 40+ in 9 of them. They've also allowed 28.5 WR fantasy points per game over the last 4 weeks, which would be the worst in the league as a season average. No one is questioning Diggs's talent. The increase in volume should make him an upside WR3 option.

 

WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. NE): Quincy is running as the full time #3 WR for the Jets with Devin Smith on IR, and the Pats' defense focuses on taking out the top options of the opposing pass attack. New England is 5th in pass DVOA against number 1 WRs, 14th in pass DVOA against number 2's, and 27th vs. all other WRs. While I'm hard pressed to mention formats where Enunwa is a viable option, he should be a decent bet to set career bests in catches and yards (currently 5 and 50).

 

TE Maxx Williams, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Williams put up a 5-31 line against the best fantasy TE defense in the league last week with Crockett Gillmore now done for the year. This week he gets a Pittsburgh defense that has been good against tight ends, but they have given up 75+ yards to the position 6 times in 14 games. Williams is nothing more than a DFS punt play, but 5 catches and 50+ yards wouldn't be surprising.

 

TE Blake Bell, SF (Wk. 16: @Det.): The Belldozer has 40+ yards in 3 of the past 4 games, and is fresh off receiving 8 targets last week despite Vance McDonald being active. The Lions have allowed 11 TDs to tight ends in 14 games, and rank 30th in pass DVOA against the position. If last week's volume repeats itself, Bell should at least threaten to crack the top-12 tight ends for the week.

 

That's all I've got this week. Hopefully it helps you to the league title. For those of you with a week 17 championship game or avid DFS players, I will do a quick column for week 17 as well. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always...good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

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You've made it to the championship game (or consolation for 3rd place), congratulations! This week, it's (of course) very important to get it right, so make sure you stop by our Injury report to see who won't be playing this week, and our Waiver Wire Pickups to see who needs to take their place. Good luck in week 16!

 

If you're still struggling to fill in for Andy Dalton, check and see if Eli Manning is an option. His matchup this week is going to be easier going than last week's game against Carolina, and he still put up good numbers there.

 

Matt Stafford is a very risky QB1 play (I'd save him for 2 QB leagues), partly due to the disappearance of his star wide-out Calvin Johnson. The last two games have seen just two receptions for Megatron, and that's the boost that Stafford is missing from moving into top 10 territory.

 

Danny Woodhead is coming off of a huge week, and now sits alone atop the depth chart in San Diego. Coming off of a short week, he's one of the few truly healthy offensive weapons for the Chargers. Look for him to get a lot of touches this week, he's an RB2.

 

Alfred Blue, despite nice words from his coach and a 100+ yard performance last week, is a candidate to spend the week on your bench. Going up against Tennessee, a team that has a solid running defense, Blue will likely struggle. His previous performance against them of a whopping 7.2 points doesn't instill a lot of confidence.

 

Travis Benjamin, now free of the Seattle defense, should be able to reconnect with his buddy Johnny Football. The KC defense has stiffened up a bit in past weeks, but they're still not immune to giving up big games. Benjamin will be on the upside of his WR3 tag this week.

 

Tyler Lockett has had a good run, but one of the few teams that gives up fewer points to opposing WR's (other than the Seahawks) is St. Louis. Lockett's yardage numbers are never gaudy, and he's very touchdown dependent. Consider your other options this week and loose elsewhere in a game that could wind up being rather low scoring.

 

Details

That's right, in most fantasy football leagues Week 16 brings us to the championship game, and if you're lucky enough to be involved in your league's final match-up you'll likely need to do some fishing on the waiver wire. If the injuries we've seen in the past few weeks are any indication, a lot of squads are hobbling in to this final fantasy confrontation and it could be these last few waiver picks that determine who brings home the trophy. This week we'll look at two picks for each major offensive position (QB, WR, RB & TE) - one well-known guy (owned in 30% or less Yahoo leagues) and one under-the-radar guy (10% or less).

 

Quarterbacks

 

Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS) 25% Owned, @PHI - Cousins and the Washington Redskins' offense have really stepped it up in recent weeks and it shows in Cousins' fantasy production. He has steadily increased his passing yardage over the past 3 games (219, 200, 319) and just threw 4 TDs against the Bills last week. During that time he has only thrown 1 interception. Going up against an Eagles defense that gives up 18+ fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Cousins is a great play if he's available.

 

SLEEPER Blaine Gabbert (QB, SF) 3% Owned, @DET - Gabbert is a tough start, but if you're scraping the bottom of the QB barrel, here's what you have to work with! Based on his starts this season, he has a floor of about 13 points, but there is some upside there when playing against defenses susceptible to the pass such as the Bears. The Lions defense is only slightly better on the year against QBs, which bodes well for Gabbert this week. I'm predicting 15 points here.

 

Wide Receivers

 

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, TEN) 23% Owned, vs. HOU - Green-Beckham has improved this season, and is being rewarded with a steady increase of targets culminating in 9 just last week against New England's stingy secondary. Based on his heavy usage we're looking at a guy who will get enough opportunities to be fantasy relevant this week, but still has a floor of just 4 or 5 points. A risky start that could pay off big dividends.

 

SLEEPER Dontrelle Inman (WR, SD) 8% Owned, @OAK - Inman has shown sporadic bursts of production this year, but it's definitely tough to trust an inconsistent 2nd year receiver on a wounded team that has already given up on the season. Thankfully, the Chargers pulled together a win last week over the Dolphins, and Inman will have another good match-up against the Raiders who are allowing almost 20 points to opposing WRs. At this point, Inman, Gates and Woodhead are the only healthy options on the offense, expect them all to have at least serviceable outings.

 

Running Backs

 

Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ) 21% Owned, vs. NE - Powell has been impressive over the past few weeks, doing well on the limited carries that he is given but capitalizing on his utilization as a passing down back. Especially against an opponent like the Patriots, Powell should be called upon often as a checkdown target and should have ample opportunities to get in for a touchdown. A better play in PPR leagues, but still very relevant down the stretch in standard scoring leagues.

 

SLEEPER Steven Jackson (RB, NE) 2% Owned, @NYJ - I know, I know.. he was just signed by the Patriots - could Jackson possibly be a viable fantasy option at this most crucial of times during the fantasy season? Well, short answer is yes. Bolden was not running the football well last week and it's more than likely that Jackson's signing was an indication that there needed to be a veteran presence at the position, and one that could see immediate time on the field. So, are you feeling lucky?

 

Tight Ends

 

Will Tye (TE, NYG) 10% Owned, @MIN - For some reason, no one seems interested in picking up Tye and playing them on a weekly basis. Not sure why, because he really has performed well over the past few weeks including 2 TDs in the last 2 match-ups. He averages about 6 targets per game since Larry Donnell was injured! I'm considering him a borderline TE1 yet again against the Vikings in Week 16 and would have absolutely no hesitation starting him if I didn't have one of the top weekly options already.

 

SLEEPER Vance McDonald (TE, SF) 6% Owned, @DET - McDonald had two big weeks earlier this season, but a concussion forced him off the field in Week 13 against the Bears. His first game back was just last week against the Bengals, which proved to be a disappointing effort, but it was also a bad week for the 49ers offense in general. Talk about under the radar, nobody is expecting a big performance from McDonald this week but I think he'll have a few receptions and a TD which makes him a great play! (Interesting tidbit: The Lions defense has given up a league-leading 11 TDs to tight ends so far in 2015).

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Week 15 played host to many more high profile injuries than fantasy players are comfortable with. Good luck going into Championship Week - hopefully there aren't too many names on this list that are also on your roster.

 

Marcus Mariota went down this week in New England and was replaced by Zach Mettenberger, who had 242 yds with 2 TD and 2 INT, not terrible, but mostly garbage points. There's been conflicting reports as to whether or not he will play the rest of the season. He has been ruled out this week, so his fantasy relevance is over this year. He should be a QB2 in 2016.

 

T.J. Yates tore his ACL on a non contact play, something we've become quite familiar with this year. With Yates on the IR Brian Hoyer is still not likely to return, Brandon Weeden has suddenly become the man in Houston. Weeden, who got cut from a 2-win team, now finds himself starting for a 7-7 team that is leading its division. Oh, what a change.

 

LeSean McCoy has been diagnosed with a torn MCL and won't be playing in week 16. It's irrelevant to us if he comes back week 17, really, so look for Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee to share carries, yay. Another split backfield means you might want to look elsewhere for a fill-in for McCoy.

 

Melvin Gordon has been disappointing all season, and now he's finally out for the season. He'll return next year with a lot of things different, probably a new coach, city and hopefully some more offensive talent around him. Danny Woodhead, who had an amazing four TD's last week, will be filling in with an increased role and will be an RB2/Flex for Thursday's game against Oakland.

 

Danny Amendola disappointed anyone who started him in Week 15, by fumbling the ball and promptly exiting the game, leaving us with negative points. It looks like he'll be out until the playoffs arrive. Owners who held on to Julian Edelman might see him return to your lineup in Week 16, so keep an eye on the injury reports, and get him in your lineups if he's playing. Brady has been starving for his slot receiver, and Edelman should produce well as soon as he returns.

 

Alshon Jeffery's injury status is top secret info here in Chicago, so we'll learn a little bit more on Wednesday. What we do know is that he left Sunday's game after his hamstring "tightened up a little bit". It's hard to tell what his status will be before Sunday, I just wouldn't recommend any other Bears WR's as a replacement for Jeffery, though Zach Miller could see a small bump in targets.

 

Tyrann Mathieu is done for the season after tearing his ACL, and this is definitely a big loss for the Cardinals defense. If you've been riding them all year, they have been great for you, but you might consider another pickup if something good is available. They are playing A.J. McCarron, so that's a plus, but there's still a lot of talent on the Bengals offense.

 

Almost Injured...

 

Brock Osweiler briefly left Sunday's game when he tweaked a non-throwing shoulder, but did return to finish the game, though he did not put up any points in the second half. Osweiler has been little help when it comes to winning games in Denver, so if Peyton Manning can go Week 16, the Broncos would do well to put him back in and bet on the vet to take them the rest of the way.

 

Adrian Peterson had an ankle sprain on Sunday, but wound up returning in the second half. This week, he'll be all systems go against a weak Giants run defense.

 

A.J. Green left the game in San Fran in the third quarter and didn't return, but that probably has something to do with the 24-0 score. Green did only have one catch in the game, and this is worrisome considering he has McCarron throwing him the ball. This week, they play Denver, so keep an eye on this tough matchup and his injury status.

 

Ted Ginn Jr. is another guy who left his game early, but he had the courtesy of putting up two touchdowns first. Ginn did return late in the game, showing that Carolina was just holding him back to be cautious. He'll be ready to go in Week 16 and has a hell of an upside.

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Another strong week to help with our own “playoff push” in confidence pools!

 

The stories are starting to pop up now about whether the Panthers will rest players or not during the last three weeks of the season. This is something you need to keep in mind when making your picks as well. If you think that Cam Newton, Greg Olsen and the majority of Carolina starters will spend most of the game on the bench, you probably don’t want the Panthers too high on your sheet.

 

Week 15 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

 

16 – NEW ENGLAND over Tennessee – The Pats are back after a strong showing in Houston. Their reward is the late season equivalent of a bye week.

 

15 – SEATTLE over Cleveland – Some teams seem to rest at the end of the year to prepare for the playoffs, but it seems like Seattle rests at the beginning of the season and dominates at the end for momentum into the playoffs. Looks like that is their strategy yet again this year.

 

14 – MINNESOTA over Chicago – The Vikings need to get back on track before the playoffs start. Lucky for them they get a confusing Bears team that are coming off of losses against the “mighty” Redskins and 49ers.

 

13 – Cincinnati over SAN FRANCISCO – Cincy is on their backup quarterback as they make their playoff run – that’s a small negative. They get to play the Niners this week – that’s a major plus!

 

12 – NEW ORLEANS over Detroit – This was a playoff game just a few years ago. I’ll go out on a limb and say it won’t be a playoff matchup this year.

 

11 – PITTSBURGH over Denver – Yes, it’s odd to see Denver this high on the list on the losing side, but the Steelers seem to be running on all cylinders at the right time.

 

10 – Kansas City over BALTIMORE – Justin Houston may be out for the Chiefs, but against this depleted of a Ravens’ offense, you don’t really need to play 11 guys on defense to win.

 

9 – Carolina over NEW YORK GIANTS – If the Panthers start to sit players for the playoffs, it won’t be this week. Sorry Giants!

 

8 – Arizona over PHILADELPHIA – The dysfunctional Eagles team can handle a home game against the Bills, but not the Cardinals.

 

7 – New York Jets over DALLAS – The Cowboys are still eligible to win their division AND are still eligible for the #1 pick in the draft! This week will show they are closer to the latter.

 

6 – OAKLAND over Green Bay – By the time you finish reading this, Khalil Mack will have another sack! Watch out Aaron!

 

5 – ST LOUIS over Tampa Bay – I’d have something intelligent to say about this game, but I am just WAY too distracted by the uniforms these teams plan on wearing!

 

4 – WASHINGTON over Buffalo – The Skins seem to be the lesser of four evils in the NFC East this year. This week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that THE REDSKINS WILL WIN THE NFC EAST.

 

3 – SAN DIEGO over Miami – In August, this game was viewed as potentially huge in the race for the wild card in the AFC. Now its viewed…by nobody outside of San Diego and Miami.

 

2 – INDIANAPOLIS over Houston – Even after three months of disappointment the Texans and Colts will still battle for control of the division. Colts take this one because they are at home.

 

1 – JACKSONVILLE over Atlanta – It’s hard to argue that the Falcons have thrown in the flag on the 2015 season. That’s good news for Jacksonville’s division hopes.

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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're just a week away from Championship Week in most leagues, so hopefully your team is still standing (both literally and figuratively). Week 14 was a brutal one for injuries. I was bounced from 3 different league playoffs with teams that each started one of Andy Dalton or Thomas Rawls, and one of them also had Tyler Eifert. It didn't help that I got horrible efforts from Calvin Johnson, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, Jeremy Maclin, Larry Fitzgerald and Brian Hoyer (2 separate 2-QB leagues), but that's neither here nor there. TJ Yeldon also went down in last week's carnage. After last week, the running back position is getting mighty thin, so expect a lot of RB insight in this week's write-up. There is only one rookie that I feel confident in telling you is a must-start this week, but plenty more who could and should make an impact. Let's dive in....

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 15: @Phi.): Yes, David Johnson is the only rookie that I can say with total confidence that you should be starting this week. He's thrived in the starter's role the past two weeks, putting up 120+ scrimmage yards in in each contest and scoring a TD in one. The Eagles rank 21st in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA (measures defensive efficiency), and they've allowed 100 RB rushing yards and or a running back TD in 5 of the 6 games played since their bye. Arizona should control the game, which should keep Johnson running all day. He has an RB2 floor and RB1 ceiling.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Gurley had a monster bounce-back game last week, but that doesn't mean he's out of the woods just yet. He's still a boom-or-bust option, albeit one with overall RB1 upside when he booms. The key last week was that the Rams were able to play from ahead, keeping the run game in play long enough for Gurley to wear down the defensive front and start ripping off chunk plays in the 2nd half. That's been his MO all season, and keeping this game close will be critical to him having another big day. Tampa does rank 5th in run DVOA, and the Rams have almost no passing game to speak of, but I like the chances that the St. Louis defense keeps this game close and allows Gurley to return at least RB2 value. My only hesitation is the low floor we've seen if the Rams fall behind.

 

RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Buf.): Jones has finally appeared to emerge as the lead back in Washington, out-touching Alfred Morris 39-17 over the past 2 weeks. Buffalo ranks 28th in run DVOA, and every team that has had 17 RB carries against Buffalo has picked up at least 85 rushing yards on them. Jones has 18 carries on his own in each of the past two games. The Bills have also allowed 7 RB rushing scores in their past 8 games. Despite Jones's inefficiency, with RB so thin this week he's a decent flex play and boasts high RB2 upside.

 

RB Ameer Abdullah, DET (Wk. 15: @NO): Ameer had his worst game in 3 weeks last Sunday, and still managed 44 scrimmage yards against a defense that ranks 12th in run DVOA. The Saints rank 27th. The Saints have been giving points to RBs almost as freely as they do to QBs, allowing the 2nd most RB points in the league. I expect Abdullah to get back to double-digit carries this week, and in this matchup that could make him an upside flex in leagues with 12 teams or more.

 

WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Cooper will be happy to be rid of Aqib Talib this week after Talib held him catchless on 8 targets, but the Packers are no cakewalk either. They've allowed just one WR to reach 70 yards in the past 5 games (Alshon Jeffery), and they've allowed just 4 top-20 weekly WR finishes all year. The Raiders should funnel Cooper targets early to get him back on track, but he's definitely more of a WR3 option than locked in WR2. I'd feel much more comfortable starting him if Green Bay's top corner Sam Shields misses this game with the concussion he suffered last week.

 

WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): The bump in volume for Tyler Lockett in week 13 proved to not be a fluke. After seeing a season-high 7 targets in the first game after Jimmy Graham went down, he saw another 7 this past Sunday. With those 14 targets, he pulled in 13 of them for 194 yards and 2 TDs. He now boasts a ridiculous 41 catches on 47 targets for the year (87.2% catch rate, best of any WR targeted at least 10 times). As long as that volume holds up, and I expect it to, Lockett should remain a decent WR3 option.

 

WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 15: @NE): Dorial has flashed great potential at times this season, especially over the past 2 weeks, but he was back to being inconsistent last Sunday following his breakout game vs. Jacksonville. The good news...he was targeted 7 times and got open consistently. He'll remain a volitile weekly option, but his talent and role give him WR2 upside, even versus the emerging New England secondary.

 

TE Clive Walford, OAK (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Walford has finally started to see substantial volume over the past 2 weeks. He's got 8 catches for 100 yards on 12 targets over the past two games. The Packers are in the bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to TEs (all point numbers based on ESPN standard scoring) and have allowed a tight end touchdown in 5 of their past 6 games. Despite the presence of Mychal Rivera to steal some TE snaps, Walford is a solid streaming option this week.

 

TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Car.): The matchup is really imposing for Tye, but he's scored at least 5 fantasy points in each of his past 4 games and 7 in each of his past 3. With Josh Norman likely to match up with Odell Beckham a bunch (not sure if Norman will follow Odell to the slot), look for Tye to remain a key piece of the offense in situations where Norman is on Beckham. There isn't a huge ceiling here, but Tye should be a safe bet for 40-50 yards, which is better than taking a shot on someone who may goose egg if you're streaming at tight end. Tye has been returning borderline TE1 production over the past month.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Wk. 15: @NE): Mariota has been playing excellent football lately, scoring 17+ points in every game except versus Carolina since he returned from injury in week 9. He's found a variety of ways to get to the end zone, even catching a 41-yard TD on trick play last week. He gets a real test this week though. The Patriots do a great job of erasing the opposition's top targets, so look for them to focus primarily on Delanie Walker, and secondarily on Dorial Green-Beckham. The Patriots' secondary has been really coming together of late, seeing standout play from both Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler. New England has allowed 12 points or fewer to opposing QBs in 6 of their last 7 (Eli is the exception). I wouldn't be willing to try Mariota as anything more than a low level QB2 this week.

 

QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 15: @StL): Jameis was a huge letdown last week in an excellent spot, and he gets much stiffer opposition this week. The Rams have allowed a QB to reach 20 fantasy points just twice all year, and the Bucs will be without Vincent Jackson. Mike Evans should spend most of his day squaring off with Trumaine Johnson, who just held Megatron to 1 catch for 16 yards on Sunday. Jameis has proven to have a usable floor in 2-QB leagues, scoring at least 12 points in every game this season, but he's not on the QB1 radar this week.

 

RB TJ Yeldon, JAX (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): As of now, Yeldon appears to be a longshot to play with a sprained knee. The Jaguars signed Jonas Gray, and head coach Gus Bradley didn't update the media on Yeldon's status on Tuesday. Typically coaches are eager to share good news on the injury front. Even if Yeldon is able to go, I'd expect him to see a limited workload and split touches with Denard Robinson. Given that he's gotten by all year on volume, a split workload would make him a dicey flex play even in this plus matchup.

 

RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Allen showed what his floor looks like last week w/o Matt Schaub in a tough matchup with the Seahawks, and it wasn't god awful (56 scoreless yards on 13 touches). That's not what you're hoping to get out of a starter though. This week he faces a Chiefs' defense that is arguably just as stingy as the Seahawks, and they also boast the best pass DVOA in the league on passes to running backs. If you're okay with about 5 points in standard scoring or 10 in PPR leagues, go ahead and play Allen. There isn't much more ceiling than that this week.

 

RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 15: @Min.): Since Matt Forte returned from injury, Langford has averaged just 14 touches and 57 scrimmage yards/game, and he's been held under 70 yards and without a TD in each of the last 2. Both were plus matchups (home against San Francisco and Washington). This week he faces a Vikings team that has allowed just 2 RB scores in 9 games since their bye, and over 16 RB points just once in that span. Given the time share with Forte, I doubt Langford gets enough volume to make a fantasy impact. He's best left on the pine.

 

RB Duke Johnson, CLE (Wk. 15: @Sea.): Don't expect a repeat of last week's rushing output for Duke. He still gets by on his passing game work, and he just doesn't get as much of it with Johnny Manziel starting. In the 5 games where Manziel has started or seen extended playing time, Duke has just 7 total catches. Even if you throw out the first 2 games of the year, which were before Johnson had established his passing game role, he's still averaged just 2.3 catches per game in the other 3. Facing an imposing matchup this week, Duke will be hard pressed to return RB3 value in any format.

 

WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 15: vs. Chi.): The passing volume was finally there last week for Minnesota, with Teddy Bridgewater throwing for nearly 340 yards on 25 completions, but just 11 of them were to wide receivers and only 2 were to Diggs. He still sees a healthy percenage of the Minnesota passing targets, but I don't expect that big volume again this week. Teddy B has thrown for under 200 yards in 5 of the past 7 games, and Minny should lean on AP this week facing a Bears' defense that ranks dead last in run DVOA. I'd be at least a little surprised if there's enough work for Diggs to top 50 yards.

 

WR Devin Funchess, CAR (Wk. 15: @NYG): With the season on the line, now is not the time to play a low-floor touchdown dart throw wide receiver. In his best game without a TD, Funchess tallied just 4 points. Yikes.

 

WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 15: @SD): I can't trust Parker this week after his 2-16 line on Monday Night Football. He may bounce back this week, but I expect him to see quite a bit of Jason Verrett, who has been an elite cover corner. Verrett rarely ventures into the slot, so he likely won't shadow Jarvis Landry, and Parker struggled versus Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie last week. This week shapes up for a heavy dose of Landry.

 

WR Nelson Agholor, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): Don't chase last week's points. Agholor has done next to nothing all year, and outside of a 53-yard TD catch last week, he caught just 2-of-5 targets for 9 yards. You can't start him this week.

 

WR Jamison Crowder, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. Buf): Crowder has shown over the past few weeks that he should only be under consideration if DeSean Jackson misses this game. Even if Jackson is out, Crowder's ceiling has settled in around 5 catches for 50 yards. You should be aiming higher with the season at stake.

 

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Melvin Gordon, SD (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Gordon continued his disappointing rookie campaign last week, adding a 13th straight game without a touchdown, but his role has been constant and even increasing down the stretch of the season. With this year a lost cause, the Chargers have started to lean on Gordon in situations where they used to go to Danny Woodhead. Gordon has had at least 13 touches in each of his past 6 games, and at least 49 scrimmage yards in each (over 60 in 4 of them). Of the 6 opponents he faced in that stretch, 5 were in the top-11 in run DVOA. Miami ranks 23rd. If he sees 15+ touches, Gordon is a decent bet to top 75 yards and just might find his way to his first TD of the year.

 

RB Jay Ajayi, MIA (Wk. 15: @SD): On the other side of the Miami-San Diego game, Jay Ajayi isn't a consideration for the fantasy playoffs, but he could be an intriguing punt play in DFS tournaments. The Dolphins are now mathematically out of the playoff race, and Ajayi could see an expanded role down the stretch. San Diego is 31st in run DVOA and has allowed 100+ RB rushing yards in 10 of 13 games this year. There is really nice upside if Ajayi can find his way to double-digit touches.

 

WR Adam Humphries, TB (Wk. 15: @StL): Admittedly, Humphries would be a hard sell to play in just about any but the most insanely deep fantasy games, but I like this spot for him. He did only haul in one catch last week for a 6-yard touchdown, but with V-Jax out and Evans facing a tough matchup with Trumaine Johnson, the ball has to go somewhere. I still expect 7-10 targets to go to Evans, but Humphries should see a handful as well, and he's topped 50 yards twice this season. I like his chances to put up a career-high yardage day.

 

TE Tyler Kroft, CIN (Wk. 15: @SF): Ok, you can't trust a guy with just 4 catches on the season in your fantasy playoffs...I get it. But, there is some DFS punt play appeal. 2nd-string QBs tend to have a rapport with 2nd-string pass catchers, and Eifert's status is likely in doubt this week as he suffered a concussion in the week he returned from a neck stinger. Kroft pulled in 2 catches for 31 yards in relief of Eifert on Sunday, and he could see a bigger role in a game the Bengals should win easily. The 49ers rank 23rd in pass DVOA on throws to tight ends.

 

TE Blake Bell, SF (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): The Belldozer has put up stat lines of 3-68 and 3-49 in two of his past 3 games, and is in line to start at TE again if Vance McDonald is out once more. Bell actually led the team in receiving last week against the Browns. He's a streaming option in super deep leagues as the starting tight end on a team that likes to utilize the position.

 

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you advance to the title game (or to the semis if your league goes through week 17. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about something I wrote, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

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So you've gotten all the way here. You fought through the gauntlet that is the regular season of your fantasy football league and made it to the playoffs. Well, there's no time to lick your wounds and admire your battle scars just yet because the tough stuff is just getting started! And after another injury-ridden week just wrapped up, we're here to provide you with a few plays in Week 15 that might just help you get to the next round and to that all-important Fantasy Football Championship. Listen up!

 

 1. T.J. Yates (QB, HOU)

Owned in only 1% of Yahoo fantasy leagues, Yates should be available in all but the deepest and darkest leagues out there and his game in Week 11 against the Jets was a little worrisome (due to his 47.1% completion average) but he has not had any issue connecting with the outstanding DeAndre Hopkins (5 receptions for 118 and 2 TDs in that same game). Up against the Colts in Week 15's match-up, Yates should have a little easier of a time against their 7th worst passing defense which is allowing an average of 18.5 fantasy points to opposing QBs. It's virtually a lock that Brian Hoyer is out at this point having sustained 2 concussions in the past month and I like this garbage time dice roll.

 

2. Bryce Brown (RB, SEA)

When do you pick up and immediately start a player with 0 fantasy points total in 2015 that is only 3% owned in Yahoo fantasy leagues? This week, that's when. It's completely true that Brown is susceptible to fumbles and is not the smartest player on the block by a long shot. In fact, he was long since waived from the Seahawks (twice) when they had thought their RB situation was in order. In a surprising move, Seattle just recently waived fill-in starter DuJuan Harris (who plodded along last week when Thomas Rawls was injured) and so it looks like Bryce Brown will be given the work in Week 15. He's an explosive player who has gone off before, and he has a tasty match-up this week against the Browns' 10th worst rushing defense in the league (averaging 17.4 points per game to opposing RBs).

 

markus wheaton sleeper week 15 fantasy football3. Markus Wheaton (WR, PIT)

A lot of fantasy player have been dropping the 29% owned Wheaton, after he failed to follow up his 26+ point performance against Seattle in Week 12 with similarly large numbers going forward (11 in Week 13, 6.5 in Week 14). To me, this is just not how it works with Wheaton. We shouldn't expect big numbers from him on a regular basis, but he does tend to shine when the other, more targeted receivers on the Steelers (Antonio Brown & Martavis Bryant) are being shadowed in good coverage. The Broncos are easily the league's best passing defense in 2015, but it's not hard for me to see an uptick in Wheaton's fantasy production this week when Roethlisberger has some issues getting the ball out.

 

4. Will Tye (TE, NYG)

Tye is owned in just 9% of leagues and he has been consistently good since Larry Donnell sustained a neck injury. Now with Donnell officially out for the rest of the season on IR, Tye should be feeling even more confident in his role on the offense. Seems like every season there is some other Giants' tight end that excels in the last few weeks of the year. Looks like it's Tye's chance to shine! Yeah, the Panthers' defense is fantastic but I expect a serviceable game at least from Tye in Week 15 as Manning's dump-off target when he is being blitzed. And he will be blitzed. Good chance he slips into the top 10 TE's this week.

 

I also like: Albert Wilson (WR, KC), and Zach Miller (TE, CHI) as great pickups this week with the opportunity to score - Wilson in much deeper leagues.

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The fantasy playoffs are in full swing, and hopefully your team is still alive and kicking. If you didn’t make it this far, you can commiserate with Mike and figure out what to do next. For the rest of us, we have to replace our Daltons, Blounts and Yeldons and move on to week 15.

 

Philip Rivers stands out this week as a bounce back prospect in 2 QB leagues. If only for pride, the Chargers should be able to take care of business at home against Miami, a team that can’t get much right at all.

 

The flipside of that same coin, or game, if you will, is Ryan Tannehill. Up against one of the worst passing defenses in the league last week, he only managed 236 yds and 1 TD. Keep him on your bench if you have any hopes of playing in week 16.

 

Danny Woodhead is a sneaky flex start this week, based on the terrible Miami rushing defense. Woodhead should be able to gain at least 100 yards from scrimmage and will find the end zone against a bad Dolphins defense.

 

Shaun Draughn is a guy who keeps finding himself high up in the ECR (expert consensus rankings), but doesn’t produce much at all. In a great matchup last week in Cleveland, he had a measly 43 rush yards. Keep him on the bench this week against the Bengals.

 

My numbers say that you should start a guy like Travis Benjamin this week as a low-end WR3, but I’m just going to remind everyone that that game will have Manziel facing the Seahawks defense in Seattle. Don’t bother starting any Browns unless you have to. Stick to your guns and the guys who got you there!

 

Make sure that John Brown finds his way into your lineup. He’s fully healthy again and the Cardinals defense has been one of the most consistent in the league all year. It doesn’t hurt that they play the Eagles this week, the team that gives up the most points to opposing WR’s.

 

 

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Like many of you, I just had my season come to an end. If you are still in the playoffs, good luck... but go fuck yourself! ;)

 

As I scream at the TV on Monday night for DeVante Parker to catch just one more fucking ball, my girlfriend reminds me that it is just a game and I’m supposed to be having fun. Easier said then done because all I want to do is win! So much time and emotion has gone into this season, just to watch it slip away to an Eli Manning knee.

 

So what comes after that last loss of the year? Lets take a look at the five stages of grief.

 

acceptance fantasy football playoffs griefBah humbug..Denial – My first thought after losing by 1 point…..THERE HAS TO BE A STAT CORRECTION! I didn’t want to refresh the score page and see the time remaining update to zero. I knew once I woke up in the morning and checked it would be official. Got over this phase pretty quickly as league mates frantically text and call reminding you of what happened.

 

Anger –I want to fly to Miami and kick Parker square in the balls after dragging him behind a car for not running 1 decent route that game. Had some nice blocks, but what fucking good does that do me! FUCKKKK Anger will pass... you may contemplate hanging up the clipboard but lets get real. The excitement come August is too much to resist.

 

Bargaining - If only I had started Randall Cobb, I’d still be in this thing... it is always easy to look back after the scores and pinpoint where you went wrong. Well, tough shit. Once you hit submit lineup and those games start, there is no going back! Always stick with your gut and what happens, happens!

 

Depression- This part is tough. What do you do with all your time? Why even talk about football anymore? Is there more to life then fantasy championships? Some may argue this is a silly game but I like to think of it as a lifestyle! Depression from losing is the worst but once all your friends are knocked out you’ll feel better.

 

Acceptance – You’ve come to realize that it is over for now. You may not be happy about it, but it has happened. So what now?

 

Hardest part for me is the constant reading and updates. What the hell am I going to do to kill time at work now? Well, work. Time to make up for the last few months of procrastinating projects and putting things on the back burner.

 

What about the shitter? This was my favorite me time to check players and browse articles. Find a good book. Start Game of Thrones! That should keep you busy until it is time to start researching ADP for next year.

 

Daily Fantasy? If you are itching to get in on the action, go for it! Sure you’ve seen the ads and gimmicks to get you in, if you haven’t yet maybe now is the time to try. If you don’t believe me, just take it from some of the REAL PEOPLE MAKING REAL MONEY on their commercials, “It’s like the best adrenaline rush ever”, “It’s definitely changed my Sundays. It’s a lot more interesting”.

 

Finally, take some time off! It is a big world out there and if you are like me, Sundays have been spent in front of the TV for the last 14 weeks. It is depressing to type that. Take your significant other out for dealing with your shit! Go for a walk. Binge watch Netflix and eat ice cream. The world is your oyster!

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Welcome back to the article geared to strike it big in the Fanduel Sunday Millions. I was on hiatus last week, but back now and ready to help you make some cash. This week we are going full upside on a boom or bust QB/WR stack, grab some great value plays at the RB position and rolling with a single team’s defense and kicker. Good luck this week!

 

QB  - Tyrod Taylor, BUF - $7,500 at PHI:  After topping at least 26 fantasy points the past two weeks Taylor looks to be a great value play against an Eagles team allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.

 

RB - Doug Martin, TB - $8,000 vs. NO:  Anyone playing against the Saints defense should be a considered play, but especially Martin since he will be a lock for 20 plus touches in this game.

 

RB - Lamar Miller, MIA - $6,600 vs. NYG:  The Dolphins new offensive coordinator in Miami appears to be committed to a running game as Miller had his first game over 20 touches of the season.

 

WR - Alshon Jeffery, CHI - $7,500 vs. WAS:  The Bears are extremely thin at the receiver position which means Jeffery should be in line for double digit targets this week against the Redskins.

 

WR - Sammy Watkins, BUF - $7,200 at PHI:  Stacking Watkins with Taylor this week to increase the point upside. Watkins has 267 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks.

 

WR - Brandin Cooks, WAS - $7,100 at TB:  The loss of Mark Ingram for the season should provide more opportunities for other play makers on the Saints.

 

TE - Greg Olsen, CAR - $6,600 vs. ATL:  Expecting Olsen to find the end zone at least once it what could be a high scoring divisional grudge match.

 

K - Cairo Santos, KC - $4,700 vs. SD :  Santos has been high risk high reward all season but his point floor should get a boost against the Chargers susceptible defense.

DEF - Chiefs, KC - $4,800 vs. SD:  The Chiefs defense has been on fire lately scoring more fantasy points than any other team the past four weeks. The depleted Chargers shouldn't slow them down.

 

 

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