Fantasy Football / NFL

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Written by Shawn Foss

Created: 14 September 2016

• fantasy football
• rookie report,
• nfl
• week 2
• shawn foss
• carson wentz
• will fuller

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one was full of surprises, just like it always is. Raise your hand if you expected Jack Doyle to be the TE1...Or Dez Bryant scoring less than a point...Or the Lions having not one, but two top-10 RBs. Put your hands down. None of you called those things. As you know, we focus on the rookies here, so lets quickly discuss some of the surprises of the first week among the rookie crop:

Carson Wentz was a huge shock to me. Granted, he was playing against the Browns, who could be really bad, but I didn't expect a guy coming in from an FCS school with less than 40 preseason snaps under his belt to be able to come in and command an NFL offense with the kind of poise Wentz showed. I still think some growing pains are coming for Wentz, but right now I think the Rams are kicking themselves for taking Goff over him. Will Fuller showed that drops will continue to be a problem for him (he dropped an easy 87-yard TD), but he also showed that it might not matter, posting the 7th-most WR points of the week on a ridiculous 11 targets. He saw more looks than DeAndre Hopkins did. Ezekiel Elliott's much-hyped debut underwhelmed, but he salvaged his day with a touchdown. Also finding his way into the end zone was Sterling Shepard, who only saw 4 targets but certainly made the most of them. Tajae Sharpe impressed and appears to be the clear WR1 in Tennessee, and Corey Coleman also topped 60 yards on Sunday thanks in part to a 58-yard grab in triple coverage.

While it's fun to reminisce about week one, we're here to take a look ahead and see what to do with the rookies for week two. To save some time, here's a quick look at some rookies who shouldn't be owned in most redraft leagues...

Rookies not worth a redraft roster spot:

QB Jared Goff, STL -Unless you're in a 2 QB league or one with 14+ teams, there's no reason to own Goff.

RB Rob Kelley, WAS - The reports of a timeshare with Matt Jones were greatly exaggerated.

RB C.J. Prosise, SEA - Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael combined for 7 targets to CJ's 1. While his role will eventually grow, that's a bad sign for the 'receiving back.'

RB Josh Ferguson, IND - He split backup reps with Robert Turbin and recorded just 3 touches in week one.

WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN - He's clearly behind Adam Thielen for WR3 duties at this point. There's no telling when he'll get on the field.

TE Hunter Henry, SD - Henry may be utilized a bit more with the Keenan Allen injury, but not enough to be a fantasy factor this year w/o a Gates injury.

TE Tyler Higbee, LA - Higee seems to have a big role in the offense, but it's a miserable offense. He was targeted 4 times in the opener, and caught just 1 ball for 2 yards, and looked terrible in the process.

Others to avoid:

RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI; RB Tyler Ervin, HOU; WR Pharoh Cooper, LA; WR Chris Moore, BAL; WR Tyreek Hill, KC; WR Braxton Miller, HOU; TE Austin Hooper, ATL

Now that we have that out of the way, let's dive in and talk about the relevant rookies...

Rookies to Start:

RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 2: @Was.): While I'm sure you were a little frustrated with Zeke in week one if you started him, he's in line for a bounce-back game in week 2. Washington ranked 22nd in the league in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat in 2015, and were the worst in the league in week one after getting shredded by DeAngelo Williams on Monday night. Elliott should remain the focal point of the offense this week, and I think 80+ yards and a TD are a reasonable expectation, with the opportunity for more.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Shepard's target count left something to be desired in week one, but his performance did not. I'll chalk the target count up to the Cowboys painfully slow pace of play last Sunday. Things should move much more crisply with the Saints coming to town in week 2. New Orleans was historically bad as a pass defense last season, and they picked up where they left off last week against Oakland. Add in the fact that promising young corner Delvin Breaux was lost for the season, and the Saints pass D might be worse than last year. Shepard should be a safe WR3 in a game that figures to be a shootout, though maybe not as high scoring as the 52-49 contest last year.

WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Fuller might still be a weekly boom-or-bust proposition, but you can't ignore his week one target share, which really carries over from a strong preseason. Whether he draws Phillip Gaines or Marcus Peters, his speed will cause them problems. I expect Osweiler will still give him a few downfield looks, and I expect he'll convert a few into catches. He's an upside WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 2: @Chi.): Wentz should make for a decent streaming option in 2QB leagues this week, even if the Chicago defense is at least a little better than the one Wentz faced on Sunday. I'm still not sure if I underestimated Wentz or overestimated Cleveland in week one. The Bears are improved on defense from 2015, but they didn't really show that last week. Wentz will eventually take some lumps, but I'd expect him in the range of 220-250 yards passing and at least one TD this week.

QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 2: @Was.): Dak is in a similar spot to the one he was in last week, facing a defense that was unimpressive in 2015, but I'd like to see Dallas allow Prescott to let it loose a bit more this week. The week one gameplan was pretty vanilla, and Prescott wasn't able to use his legs the way he did in the preseason. I get that you don't want Dak to get hurt and be stuck with the Sanchize starting, but it doesn't make sense to me to make Dak the starter after he shows how dynamic he can be in the preseason, and then call plays that won't let him be dynamic. Improvement from Zeke should help Dak this week, as should Washington's defensive scheme if they don't change what they did in week one. Josh Norman played exclusively at left corner last week, and rarely ended up covering Antonio Brown. If Norman is deployed the same way again, look for Dez to move all around the formation to get some manufactured mismatches away from Norman. Dak is again a borderline QB2 option. If things go his way, he could push close to a top-12 performance this week.

WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 2: @Det.): There is no question that Sharpe is the number one receiver for the Titans, as evidenced by the week one snap counts. Sharpe was on the field for 64 of the Titans' 69 offensive snaps. No other receiver played more than 37. The only problem...the Titans' game plan is supposed to be a low-volume passing attack. They threw 41 passes last week, which is definitely more than they wanted to throw, and Sharpe was still just the WR38 for the week in standard scoring. The running backs and Delanie Walker are the priorities in this offense, and until that changes, Sharpe is going to be on the WR3/4 borderline every week. He'll be more of a steady WR3 in PPR. For what it's worth, the Lions offense is humming and the Titans should be playing from behind and throwing more than they want to again.

WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 2: @NYG): The G-Men appeared to be improved from last year on the defensive side in week one, so the upside for Thomas may be limited, but he showed great efficiency last Sunday with 6 catches on 6 targets, and Drew Brees threw 7 TDs against the Giants a year ago. While the matchup with Dominique Rogers-Cromartie or Janoris Jenkins on the outside isn't appealing, there is some sneaky upside this week. He could be a high-risk, high-reward WR3/flex guy in this matchup.

WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Bal.): I'm not sure how the RG3 injury will affect Coleman going forward. Griffin's willingness to throw the deep ball played right into Coleman's wheelhouse, and it's a trait that Josh McCown lacks. McCown connected on just 7-of-25 throws (28%) that traveled more than 20 yards downfield last season. That efficiency will have to be better for Coleman to approach his ceiling. Corey is still the de facto WR1 while Gordon is out, and he'll remain a boom-or-bust option to roll the dice on as a fantasy WR3. The Ravens were 25th in pass defense DVOA last season, so the matchup is a decent one if Coleman can exploit it.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 2: @Det.): Based on what we've seen from Derrick Henry in college, the 41 receiving yards seem like an outlier for the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. He didn't show much receiving prowess at 'Bama, and while the team has said it's something he can do, I wouldn't expect that kind of receiving output regularly. He should make his money on the ground, especially in the red zone, but in week one he saw just 5 carries total, and picked up just 3 yards on them. That kind of workload won't create strong fantasy days, even if he does hit paydirt. I'd like to see that carry number increase, or a goal line role become clear before I'd consider playing him in fantasy lineups.

RB DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. Atl.): Week one was rough for Washington. He was talked up as the complement to Latavius Murray that the Raiders had been lacking last season, but he tallied just 6 touches (only one catch) for 24 total yards, and he was clearly outperformed by the number 3 back. This is a spot where you have to avoid starting Washington until he has a clear role as the receiving back.

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Boyd saw just 3 targets in week one. There will be weeks where he sees more, but we saw what the offense is. It will be funneled through AJ Green and the running backs (and Eifert when he returns). Unless Boyd manages to jump Brandon LaFell on the depth chart, it will be hard to recommend starting him. There just isn't enough upside to justify playing a guy with such a low floor.

WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Mitchell is an interesting option this week with the burnable Byron Maxwell and rookie Xavien Howard starting on the outside for Miami, but with Gronk returning, this offense just has too many mouths to feed to expect a big game from Mitchell. At best he's a DFS tournament punt play.

WR Leonte Carroo, MIA (Wk. 2: @NE): I was excited to talk up Carroo as a sleeper for this week until I realized who he would be matched up with all game. Carroo was quiet in week one with just 2 catches for 14 yards, but he was on the field for 45 snaps and squared off with Richard Sherman all day. Sherman praised Carroo's competitiveness after the game. If DeVante Parker is out again, I'd expect a big snap count for Leonte again, but this week he gets Malcolm Butler. Butler was a largely unknown player turned Super Bowl hero two years ago, and he really came into his own as a lockdown corner in '15. That matchup is enough for me to re-think Carroo as a sleeper for this week.

WR Josh Doctson, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. Dal.): You are probably aware not to play Doctson. He didn't get on the field until the game was already out of hand on Monday night. He will certainly work his way up the depth chart at some point, but until he does he needs to stay stashed.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 2: vs. Atl.): Was Richard's 75-yard TD run on his first career carry a fluke? Can he be Antone Smith redux? Is he something more than that? I don't know the answers to these questions yet, but my gut feeling is that he has a chance to be something more. Latavius has been consistently inefficient as a starter and gotten his production on volume alone, and Richard looks like a better pure runner than DeAndre Washington. His running style reminds me of CJ Anderson. If he continues to impress in limited looks over the next few weeks, he'll almost certainly start to cut into Murray's workload, and could overtake him by as early as 2017. He's definitely worth a stash in dynasty if you have the room for him.

RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 2: vs. Ten.): Washington is another player who is more of a dynasty stash than the guy to play right away. He scored his first career TD in week one but tallied just 1 yard on 2 carries. It appears that his strong preseason helped him beat out Zach Zenner for the big back role that Joique Bell played admirably for the past few years in Detroit. He could be a desperation streamer in TD-only leagues, but dynasty owners are the ones who need to keep an eye on him. He's shown some upside...he ran for 104 yards in the Lions' preseason finale. If his role grows at all, he'll be worth an add.

TE Stephen Anderson, HOU (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Once again, as is the theme with this section today, we have another dynasty stash player...but this one could have value in re-draft leagues before long. Draft twitter was in love with Anderson in the spring and was stunned when he went undrafted. Somehow, he still may end up the Texans' starter before long. Anderson caught 3 passes for 25 yards in the opener and only has to beat out CJ Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin to be the top dog. Those two are both better known as blockers than receivers and combined for 3 catches and 23 yards on Sunday. Anderson is oozing with upside and just needs to earn Osweiler's trust to be pushing to be a top-15 TE. He's definitely one to keep an eye on if you are streaming tight ends or have a lackluster starting option.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you dominate your week 2 matchups. Always make sure to use some common sense and fit the recommendations to your team. Don't just blindly start Sterling Shepard because of where I have him listed if you have 3 top-10 WRs. Also, make sure to keep a close watch on the injury report. With the removal of the 'Probable' designation, it's going to be even harder to tell who's actually going to play and who isn't. If you don't like what you see here (or do), feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) and tell me about it. As always...good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It's just a game.

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Written by Troy Maples

Created: 13 September 2016

• fantasy football
• week 2
• joe flacco
• matt ryan
• who do i start
• tajae sharp

Each week we'll give you some recommended starters that you need to get in your lineup for one reason or another. Usually, it's because of a good matchup, sometimes it's a player that's trending up, and once in a while it's going to be the secret to your fantasy victory!

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan @ OAK: The Atlanta quarterback was not highly touted heading into this season. Week 1 was a strong showing for him with 334 yards and 2 touchdowns. More importantly, he protected the football, something he has struggled with in the past. I like Matt Ryan in week 2 against the Oakland Raiders. Drew Brees just torched the Oakland secondary in week 1. Mohamed Sanu gives Ryan a good second option after Julio Jones. Running Backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will keep the Raiders defense honest too.

Joe Flacco @ CLE: The Ravens win the Cleveland Lottery in week 2. Joe Flacco returned to the field after tearing his ACL last season, and while his knee looks fine his fantasy score left something to be desired. The highlight was his connection with Mike Wallace on a 66 yard touchdown pass. Cleveland did a piss poor job last week of introducing rookie Carson Wentz to the NFL. Wentz threw for 278 and 2 TD’s in his first ever game; I expect Flacco to have his way with the Cleveland defense this Sunday.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller vs. KC: As expected, Lamar Miller was used heavily in week 1 for the Texans. In fact, he was one of only two top 25 running backs to rush for over 100 yards in week 1. Miller saw 28 carries and 4 receptions in week 1. Houston will not move away from that in a week 2 match-up with the Chiefs. Kansas City gave up 146 total rushing yards between Danny Woodhead and Melvin Gordon in week 1.

Spencer Ware @ HOU: Jamaal Charles is still a question mark for week 2 and it’s safe to say the Chiefs have no reason to rush him back. Spencer Ware split time with Charcandrick West in week 1, but Ware was clearly the more utilized back. His 18 touches for 199 total yards makes him a must start this week and every week until Charles returns.

Wide Receiver

Tajae Sharpe @ DET: Marcus Mariota is clearly feeling it with Tajae Sharpe. Sharpe led the team in targets with 11 while bringing in 7 receptions for 76 yards. Tennessee has a favorable match-up in week 2 against a Lions pass defense that looked awful in week 1. Sharpe’s strong route running will offer him plenty of opportunity against this secondary.

Tight End

Dwayne Allen @ DEN: Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen were both strong options for Andrew Luck in week 1. They finished 1 and 2 amongst tight ends in scoring for week 1. Dwayne Allen saw 2 more targets and 18 more yards, while Jack Doyle’s big boost came with his 2 touchdown performance. I like Allen in week 2 because he is clearly the TE1 on the Colts and a favorite red zone target for Andrew Luck.

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Written by Matt Cochrane

Created: 13 September 2016

• san francisco 49ers
• case keenum
• los angeles rams
• guys running on the field
• kevin harlan

Well, if you are lucky enough to live on the East coast, then you probably didn't waste any of your life Monday night watching the abysmal display put forth by the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. I envy you for this - Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert playing quarterback in the same game should be an FCC violation. In a game that gave us a combined passing total of 300 yards and a mere 185 yards of total offense from the Rams, there was little to get excited about. There was however one exciting moment which came early in the fourth quarter brilliantly called by Kevin Harlan.

Watch Kevin Harlan's brilliant call here.

There were a few things I could take away from this game. Gurley and Hyde will be 2 of the top rushers for this season if they can stay healthy. Tavon Austin will be a focal point of the Rams’ offense. Jared Goff will be starting under center sooner than later, watching the display Keenum will put on week in and week out will have no educational value and can only hurt in my opinion. Finally one of these two teams will likely be picking number one in next year’s draft.

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Written by David Biggs

Created: 13 September 2016

• fantasy football
• waiver wire
• nfl
• week 2
• pickups
• jeremy kerley
• eli rogers

Alright, fantasy football fans - it's that time again; time to dig through the waiver wire to unearth some guys that were borderline draftable earlier this Summer but are quickly clawing to the top of their respective position, and some that could even be every-week starters down the road. Just remember, though, for every Victor Cruz or Devonta Freeman there are countless other players that will inevitably fade back into fantasy obscurity. My advice to you is not to be timid, but be brave with your waiver picks each week and always keep a few guys on the bench with the upside to help get you to that all-important league championship this year.

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 40% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

Joe Flacco (BAL) - 18% owned

Flacco only put up 258 yards and 1 touchdown last week against the Bills, but he looked fully recovered from his ACL injury and connected several times to Mike Wallace including a 66-yard touchdown. He'll be heading up the Ravens' pass-happy offense in Week 2 against a Cleveland Browns team that gave up 278 yards and 2 touchdowns to the Eagles' rookie QB, Carson Wentz. A good streaming, or 2 QB option to consider.

Running Back Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

Theo Riddick (DET) - 36% owned

Riddick was on fire Sunday against the Colts, scoring 2 touchdowns and racking up 108 all-purpose yards (most of which came on his 5 receptions). We've been hearing good things about Riddick and his role (along with Abdullah) on this Lions' offense this season, but it pays to temper expectations and to realize that the Colts' defense looked terrible out there. This kind of production cannot be expected on a week-to-week basis, therefore, but Riddick will get enough touches to maintain his value for the immediate future.

Wide Receiver Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

Eli Rogers (PIT) - 8% owned

Rogers caught 6 of 7 targets on Monday night for 59 yards and 1 touchdown. Very much a slot player, we can't expect Rogers to be lining up on the outside or getting many red zone targets. His touchdown, in fact, was actually the result of a throw to Sammie Coates that bounced into Rogers' waiting arms. Incumbent receiver Markus Wheaton also looks to get back on the field soon, limiting Rogers' targets further. There is a lot of potential for Rogers in Pittsburgh, however, as he builds good chemistry with Roethlisberger and OC Todd Haley is already enamored with his play.

Nelson Agholor (PHI) - 5% owned

Agholor had a bad start in the NFL last year, having been drafted as a first-rounder but only ending up scoring 1 touchdown all season. It's possible that some combination of rookie jitters and unstable management and play-calling contributed to a disappointing 2015. Rookie QB Carson Wentz looked to Agholor 5 times on Sunday which resulted in 4 receptions for 57 yards and 1 touchdown. Many experts were down on the Eagles' offense this year, but they are just humming along regardless of popular opinion. Granted they played the Browns in week 1, but going up against Chicago and then Pittsburgh in weeks 2 and 3 should still offer plenty of opportunities to exploit the secondary.

Tight End Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

Kyle Rudolph (MIN) - 18% owned

Rudolph caught 4 of his 8 targets for 65 yards on Sunday. Rudolph has always been a talented tight end, and the main problem here is trying to predict the continued volume of targets going his way as the season progresses. The Vikings usually have a conservative approach to the passing game and that shouldn't change when Sam Bradford takes over under center (possibly week 2), so conventional wisdom tells us that Rudolph should continue to receive opportunities in this offense. 

Defense Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

New York Jets (@BUF) - 37% owned

The Jets played well last week and look to continue in week 2 against an anemic Buffalo offense that now has #1 WR Sammy Watkins questionable from week-to-week with lingering foot pain. Shaping up to be a good play once again, the Jets should score 8-10 points in a standard scoring league.

Deeper League / Sleeper Picks

Jeremy Kerley (SF, WR), Jack Doyle (IND, TE)

Kerley looks locked into being the go-to target in a quick offense and should continue to pile up passes and opportunities. Doyle scored 2 touchdowns on Sunday, but he will likely prove to be an inconsistent value in fantasy due to the presence of Dwayne Allen and all of the other mouths to feed in Indianapolis.

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Written by Mike Mocerino

Created: 12 September 2016

• fantasy football
• nfl
• keenan allen
• Week 1
• injuries
• rg3
• torn acl
• ir

Keenan Allen – Torn ACL- Out for Season

Fantasy football aside, you just have to feel bad for Keenan Allen. This is a big blow for fantasy owners who may have drafted him in the second or third round. This will open up more targets for Travis Benjamin, Dontrelle Inman, and my favorite of the three Tyrell Williams. Also going to give a bump to Antonio Gates and Woodhead. Hoping for a speedy recovery for Allen and looking forward to seeing him back out next year.

Robert Griffin III – Broken bone in non-throwing shoulder- Placed on IR

Two things we can count on: the sun coming up in the morning and RG3 suffering injuries. Joking aside, it's tough to see even as a Steelers fan. RG3 just can’t stay healthy and I am hopeful you were not starting or planning on starting RG3. Good news is McCown is back and Gary Barnidge owners can breath easier.

Sammy Watkins – Sore foot- Day to Day

News broke this morning that Watkins may be shut down for the year and thankfully that is not the case. It seems there aren't any structural issues with his cyborg foot, but he is sore and feeling a lot of discomfort. If you own Watkins, buckle up for a bumpy ride. We can expect to see a Q next to his name for the remainder of the season.

Zach Ertz – Rib Displacement- Week to Week

Good news is Ertz did not break or crack a rib. Bad news, coach Pederson said this is not the kind of injury Ertz can play through. Something to monitor, but owners should be looking for a replacement for the next few weeks.

Russell Wilson – Sprained Ankle- Day to Day

Russell avoided the dreaded high ankle sprain and is expected to start Sunday. He will be limited at practice this week but should see the field vs the Rams. If you drafted Wilson, chances are you are going to play him. However, I would temper expectations and see how he is moving on that ankle come Sunday.

Demaryius Thomas – Hip- Day to Day

Thomas suffered a hip injury during the Panthers game Thursday and had an MRI done on Friday. Thankfully it's all good news and he was even on the practice field Monday morning. No real concerns here.

Julius Thomas – Sprained Ankle- Day to Day 

Julius suffered an ankle sprain Sunday vs the Jaguars. This is worth watching because Thomas has a history of ankle issues. We should know more in the next few days but all signs are pointing to Thomas playing on Sunday against the Chargers. 

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Written by Mike Mocerino

Created: 12 September 2016

• fantasy football
• seattle seahawks
• thomas rawls
• christine michael
• player profile

Christine Michael has had a wild ride in his NFL career so far, and I do not expect that wild ride to end anytime soon. You may recall the hype last year as some folks thought Michael would run away with the Dallas job when given the chance. After being cut by the Cowboys, spending time on the Redskins practice squad, then being re-signed by the Seahawks, Michael is back to wreak havoc on Fantasy owners.

Expectations for week 1 were an even split but giving Michael the nod to start. The good news here is that Michael made the most of his carries vs Miami. He had 15 carries for 66 years (4.4 YPC) and added 2 catches for 5 more yards. Not a great game by any means but nice to note he had a better game in a near even split with Rawls. (Rawls stat line – 12 carries 32 yards (2.7 YPC) and 3 receptions for 26 yards)

I expect Rawls' usage to increase in the weeks to come but if he continues to disappoint then our favorite hype train should pick up more steam.

We also want to keep an eye on Russell Wilson and his ankle injury. Pete Carroll says it is nothing serious, but if for some reason Wilson misses time, the whole Seahawks offense will take a major hit.

All in all, I am usually the first one to hop on a hype train but I would temper expectations this year. I expect this backfield to be a time-share the whole season with both backs earning carries and having RB2/flex appeal depending on matchups. I can not see a scenario where Michael is the workhorse unless Rawls suffers another injury. In which case, CHOO CHOO!

2016 Prediction

654 rushing yards and 5 TD’s

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Written by Jason Evans

Created: 12 September 2016

• fantasy football
• week 1 stats
• carson wentz
• kickers
• dak prescott

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

106 Yards

Lamar Miller, Houston's new featured back, ran for 106 yards on Sunday and is, thus far, the only back in week 1 to even break 100 yards. This is the lowest total in Week 1 going back at least 20 years (I suspect of all time). The only year with a total close to being this low was 1999, but in that season, 4 people had between 109 and 112 yards. To be fair, there are several backs that can pass this tonight, but overall this is still a historically low rushing total to start the season. The NFL is truly shifting into a passing league. (Editor's note: DeAngelo Williams ran for 144 yards, however only 2 players over 100 rushing yards is still remarkable for any week.)

11 Kickers

So far in Week 1, 11 kickers have reached the double-digit promised land. Four of them are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues, so it just goes to show that streaming kickers is always an option, and drafting them before the last round is (almost) always a waste.

0-2

Thus far the two highest scoring QB's of Week 1 both lost their game. Both Luck and Brees found themselves on the losing sides of a shoot out, which usually produces the best fantasy games. It lends credence to the old saying, "the best fantasy offense is a weak real-life defense".

26 Targets

Dak Prescott's debut showed that he's Mr. Checkdown, sending 14 targets to Jason Witten and 12 to Cole Beasley. While it didn't translate into a ton of production for either player, they will serve as a temporary replacement for Keenan Allen, at least until Tony Romo comes back. As efficient as Prescott looks, if he can't throw it deep, he won't play one week longer than necessary.

77 Years

Carson Wentz was the first rookie to start in Week 1 for the Eagles since 1939, and it's something they might want to considering trying more often. Wentz looked good, throwing for 278 yards, 2 TD (including the very first of the day Sunday) and had zero turnovers.

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Written by Jason Evans

Created: 08 September 2016

• fantasy football
• kirk cousins
• danny woodhead
• week 1 rankings
• week 1 starts
• larry fitzgerald

The time for drafting and sleepers and value picks and auctions have all past, it's now time for real football to be played! Week 1 starts on Thursday night with the matchup between the Panthers and Broncos in the mile-high city. Make sure you also check out our podcast where Dave and Jason break down all the Week 1 matchups.

Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 9/6/16: Week 1 Preview

As far as this week's rankings go, it's Week 1, so it's probably going to be the biggest crapshoot of the year. You are likely going to have very few decisions to make on Sunday - this is a good thing. Go with the guys you drafted high and be patient. If you are interested in a few guys we're high on, look for Kirk Cousins to do well against Pittsburg, Danny Woodhead to get some nice garbage points in KC and Larry Fitzgerald to shine on a team that is 3-deep at wideout.

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Written by Shawn Foss

Created: 08 September 2016

• fantasy football
• rookie report,
• nfl
• Week 1
• shawn foss

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long offseason, but hopefully you’re ready for the season to kick into gear. If you aren’t familiar with the column, each week I’ll break down the matchups that the relevant fantasy rookies face and tell you which ones you should play, which you should sit, and which ones you should think twice about. Always fit the recommendations to your team, and read the reasoning before blindly starting a player based on the word ‘Start’ in my recommendation.

Week one is always the toughest one to project the rookies. We don’t always know how their skills will translate, we don’t have a track record of usage to go off of, and we have a hard time trusting players like that. Because of that, the list of players to consider for week one is a little shorter than it will be for the rest of the season…so guess what? You get a bonus section this week! Before we get to the matchups for week one, here’s a look at my top 10 fantasy rookies for 2016 season:

Ezekiel Elliot is set to impress1. RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys: Zeke is the easy number one option here. He’s the clear cut number one back in the most running back-friendly offense in the league. Darren McFadden ran for nearly 1,100 yards and caught 40 passes for another 328 last year, and he doesn’t have the same talent as Elliott and wasn’t the starter to open the year. I expect Dallas to try and repeat their formula from 2014 when they tried to dominate time of possession by pounding the rock with DeMarco Murray. Murray was the best RB in football that year, and that’s Elliott’s ceiling this year. Thanks to volume and that Cowboys o-line, his floor should still be an RB1.

2. WR Sterling Shepard, New York Giants: Shepard was a phenom at Oklahoma. He’s probably the best route-runner in this draft class and uses his savvy and quickness to get separation consistently. He enters an offense that has been desperate for a number 2 receiver to take pressure off Odell Beckham and they finally found one. It’s a long shot that Victor Cruz ever regains his previous form, so there is a huge role there for Shepard to take. Rueben Randle was awful as a Giant, and he was targeted 90 times last year. During the 2015 season at Oklahoma, the QBs throwing the ball had the equivalent of a 135.9 NFL passer rating when targeting Shepard. Eli is going to get attached to this kid quickly, and I expect him to top 100 targets as a rookie and be a solid WR3 in most fantasy leagues.

3. WR Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns: Coleman was statistically the most prolific receiver in college in 2015, blowing by defenses in Baylor’s aggressive spread attack to the tune of 1,363 yards and 20 touchdowns. He follows in a line of Baylor WRs that includes Josh Gordon, Kendall Wright and Terrance Williams…and he’s likely to end up as the best one of the group. He gets dropped behind Shepard for this year because the Browns’ offense remains suspect, and Josh Gordon will return before long and take a large share of his targets. I expect Coleman to have similar target numbers to Shepard (maybe even more of them), but expect that Shep will be more efficient with his chances due to playing in a more efficient offense.

4. RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: Henry was a bruiser in college, but there were a lot of concerns about his workload as a junior (395 carries) and his lack of agility, but he has put most of those concerns to bed with a torrid preseason. He has been terrorizing opposing defenses with 216 yards and 3 scores on 6.35 yards per carry in the exhibition season. In my opinion, his impressive camp has earned him a share of the workload this season despite the team acquiring DeMarco Murray, and he can be a touchdown machine if the Titans give him that chance. He should be drafted as an RB 3 or with the upside to become a strong RB2 if his role increases.

5. RB DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders: While Washington’s role to open the season seems larger than Derrick Henry’s, he lacks the same top-end upside. Washington will open the season as the team’s passing down back, which likely has him ticketed for 50-60 catches and a few TDs, but if he can’t steal some of Latavius Murray’s early down work, he won’t be much more than a weekly flex consideration. Washington ran for nearly 1,500 yards last year at Texas Tech, but their Air Raid offense is known for lining up 4+ wide receivers often, which creates some pretty soft fronts for the RB to run through. I’m yet to be convinced that he will run inside as effectively against NFL defenses. As I mentioned, he’s a weekly flex consideration, and should be drafted as such.

6. WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints: Thomas isn’t the flashiest wideout who was drafted this year, be he may have landed in the best situation (at least as long as Drew Brees is around). He seemed ticketed to play the ‘Big Slot’ role as a rookie, but reports have him playing on the outside in 3-WR sets. Still, with Coby Fleener’s struggles in camp he should see a nice target share in a very efficient passing offense. He replaces Marques Colston, who even through his decline averaged 60-788-4.7 over the past 3 years. Those numbers would have been good enough for WR37 last year, ahead of Donte Moncrief, Tyler Lockett, Marvin Jones and Alshon Jeffrey. Thomas should be in that ballpark. He will certainly have some usable weeks this year, and should be drafted as a WR4, or really good number 5.

7. WR Tajae Sharpe, Tennessee Titans: It was widely believed that the Titans were listing Sharpe ahead of Dorial Green-Beckham on the depth chart as a motivational tactic for the gifted 2^nd year WR…but it turns out they were more than willing to stick with Sharpe if DGB didn’t get his act together. Green-Beckham has been shipped off to Philly, and Sharped looks locked in as a starter alongside Rishard Matthews. It’ll be an up and down year for both Titans WRs. The offense will certainly want to focus on the run game with Murray and Henry, and when it’s working there will be some rough weeks due to low volume, but Sharpe caught 196 passes for 2,600 yards over the past 2 years at UMass. He’ll make the opportunities count when he gets them. He should be drafted shortly after Thomas.

8. WR Will Fuller, Houston Texans: I’m not a big believer in Fuller. I think the dropsies that he showed last year in college will re-surface in the NFL, but hey, that happened to Kelvin Benjamin in his rookie year and he still produced as a top fantasy target. Fuller’s speed is legit. He can take the top off the defense, and he has DeAndre Hopkins on the opposite side of the field to draw coverage away. Fuller will be boom-or-bust, and while I like my fantasy players to have a bit more consistency, there will be some strong games that can help your team, especially in DFS and best-ball formats.

9. WR Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals: Boyd was ultra-productive at Pitt, but a lot of experts question if he has the speed to separate from NFL defenders. His year one outlook is hurt by the fact that the Bengals are likely to be more run-heavy after losing their number 2 and 3 WRs (and missing their TE to start the year). It’s also hurt by the fact that he hasn’t passed Brandon LaFell on the depth chart yet. While he has an immediate role, it’s possible that someone not ranked in this top-10 moves ahead of him if injury strikes or if they move into a starting role (Treadwell, Doctson, Leonte Carroo, Malcolm Mitchell, etc.).

10. QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: The Dak Attack appears to be for real, and he is opening the year as the starting QB of an offense that is set up for success. Dak will be asked to hand off to Zeke, and occasionally throw to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to keep the sticks moving. They won’t put too much on his plate too soon, but he’s passed every test so far this preseason. He completed 78% of his throws and threw for 5 TDs, 0 INTs, and also ran for 2 scores. The rushing upside makes him playable in 2-QB leagues when the matchup is right. I wouldn’t feel comfortable doing that with Carson Wentz just yet. Jerry Jones has left open the possibility that Dak remains the starter once Romo returns if he plays well, so this might be a guy who starts all year. I think I’d still be afraid to draft him in a 10-team, 1-QB league even as a backup, but I’d be fine with it in deeper leagues. He has a solid shot to be a top-20 QB

Honorable Mention: K Roberto Aguayo, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I wouldn’t feel right putting a kicker in the top-10 rookies, but he is one of the best college kickers of all-time, was drafted in the 2^nd round, and appears to be past his scuffles from early in camp. The offense there is improving, and Aguayo should have plenty of chances to put up points this season. He’s likely to finish in the top half of the league in fantasy points for kickers.

Alright, on to week one…

Rookies to Start:

RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): You have to start Zeke this week. If you drafted him, it was in the first two rounds, and you didn’t do it to sit him. His only competition for carries is from Alfred Morris, and the Giants allowed 19 fantasy points per game to opposing backs last year. The Cowboys are going to get back to their ball control formula from 2014, when they ran the ball on 49.64% of their offensive plays. With the workload expected for Elliott, he’s an RB1 play this week.

Borderline Rookies:

Can Dak succeed in Dallas?QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): The Giants allowed the 2^nd most quarterback fantasy points in the league last year and  their pass defense ranked just 28^th in Football Outsider’s DVOA stat which measures defensive efficiency. Dak likely won’t have to throw a lot, but his rushing ability gives him a higher floor, and he has a shot at a strong QB2 day. I wouldn’t consider him in anything but the deepest of 1-QB leagues though. This is more for 2QB formats.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 1: @Dal.): Shepard should get fed the ball if the defense doubles up on Odell Beckham. The Cowboys were 30^th in DVOA vs. #1 WRs last year, and 10^th vs. #2’s, so Beckham has a plus matchup, but there should be enough to go around for Shep. 70-80 yards out of Sterling would be a success in week 1.

WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 1: @Phi.): The Eagles were shredded by WRs in 2015 to the tune of almost 2,900 yards and 24 TDs (25.9 fantasy points allowed per game), but they upgraded the secondary this offseason. Both of their starting safties got grades of over 80 from Pro Football Focus in 2015(0-100 scale), so they should do a good job of limiting big plays, which are Coleman’s specialty. The Browns will look to get him involved, but 5-60 sounds about right for this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Cle.): The matchup looks good on paper, but don’t be fooled. Wentz isn’t ready yet. He will play in one of the slowest offenses in the league. Head Coach Doug Pederson’s Kansas City offense ran just 57.4 plays per game last year at home, 2^nd fewest in the NFL. That’s still about 20 more snaps than Carson Wentz has played against better than FCS-level competition. I’d expect a run-heavy attack and some growing pains for the rookie QB along the way. If everything goes right for him, he might be a low-end QB2. The upside just isn’t there this week (or probably for the next few weeks).

RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): I’m a huge fan of Derrick Henry’s season-long potential to steal a big chunk of DeMarco Murray’s workload and become a TD machine, but week one might not be his best opportunity. The Vikings allowed just 5 RB rushing scores in ’15, and the 8^th-fewest fantasy in the league to opposing running backs. Their defense should be stronger this year as their young core gains experience. He would have to find the end zone to have a usable day.

RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Pit): Kelley had a strong preseason, prompting one beat writer to project a 60-40 split of early down work with Matt Jones this season. He will likely have some big weeks, especially if Jones spends any time banged up this year, but week one is not an ideal matchup to make an impact. The Steelers are very vulnerable on the back end of the D, but they allowed the 2^nd-fewest running back fantasy points a season ago. Kelley’s a stash for now in deeper leagues.

WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 1: vs. Oak.): Thomas will have an opportunity to make an impact in week one if reports of Coby Fleener’s camp struggles are to be believed, but I’d be hard pressed to start him against Oakland’s ascending defense. It sounds like Thomas will line up outside in 3-WR sets,  which means Willie Snead will square off with the weak link of the Raiders’ secondary, DJ Hayden. Thomas should still be 3^rd in the pecking order for targets, and I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger on him this week.

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Boyd has some upside this week, but like Thomas I’m just not comfortable making the call to put him in this week. AJ Green will likely get the Revis Island treatment, and it may be tough sledding to run against the Jets’ front, but they certainly will try to establish the run and Boyd is still running behind Brandon LaFell on the depth chart. I’m not sure he sees enough volume to be start-able.

WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN (Wk. 1: @Ten.): After failing to beat out Stefon Diggs and Charles Johnson for a starting role, Treadwell won’t be playable in fantasy in the early part of the season. The Vikings are just too run-heavy for their WR3 to be of value in the lineup.

WR Josh Doctson, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Pit.): Much like Treadwell, Doctson is yet to carve out a role with the first-team offense. His struggles, however, have been related more to health than on-field performance. He’s going to work his way into the rotation sooner than later, but it likely won’t happen in week one.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Plays:

RB DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 1: @NO): The Saints allowed a league-high 910 receiving yards to opposing backs last season and 7 receiving TDs (tied for league-high). They also allowed the 3^rd most fantasy points to the position. While Latavius will be the lead back, Washington figures to have a prominent role in the passing game right away. He could make a decent flex-play in PPR leagues this week.

WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): Fuller is a boom-or-bust punt play for DFS tourneys this week. His hands are an issue, but the Texans are likely to take a couple shots downfield against a suspect Bears defense. Fuller will have a chance to make a big play or two, and should cost the minimum on most DFS sites.

WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Like Fuller, Sharpe is more of a punt play in DFS tournaments. The Vikings were strong against WR1s in 2015, but they struggled vs. WR2s, ranking 25^th in DVOA on passes to the number 2 wide receiver. If we assume Rishard Matthews is the number one, that makes Sharpe the de facto number 2. Delanie Walker will undoubtedly lead the team in targets in this one, but Sharpe will cost just the minimum in DFS and has some upside for a respectable day.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. If there are any rookies not listed above, I wouldn’t recommend playing them this week. Now it’s time to sit back, put your feet up, and enjoy some NFL football that means something for the first time in 7 months. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Details

Written by Tad Bukowski

Created: 06 September 2016

• nfl
• Confidence Picks
• strategy
• tad bukowski
• pool

Ladies and gentlemen, until the second week of February there will NOT be a Sunday that goes by without a full day of football!!

We are just days away from the Mile High City opening up the 2016 NFL season with a Super Bowl rematch – the first time that has happened since 1970! From there, it will just get better! Because, you know, there’s more than just one game played in an NFL season!

THAT…AND the return of the confidence pool!

For those who have not been with us the last two seasons, let me give you a quick rundown on what confidence pool is. First off, you pick the winner of every game in the week. After that, you assign a point value (1 through however many games there are that week) based on how confident you are that your pick will turn out to be correct. So you will want to assign a higher point value to those that you are more confident about. If you pick the game wrong, you don’t get those points. Whoever has the most points for the week wins! Some pools also have prizes for total score throughout the season.

So, without further ado, let’s get the 2016 season started!

Week 1 and 2016 season – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

16 – SEATTLE over Miami – I really expect Arian Foster to have a bounce-back year in Miami…though there is no chance of that success starting until week 2.

15 – HOUSTON over Chicago – It’s…um…it’s going to be a long season on the lakefront this year.

14 – KANSAS CITY over San Diego – The Chargers have quickly taken over the Joker's role in the AFC West away from the Raiders. This game could very well be the start of their trip to being the first on the clock next April.

13 – ARIZONA over New England – No Tom Brady – no problem! Well, expect for trying to score more points than one of the most exciting offenses in the league…THAT could be a problem.

12 – PHILADELPHIA over Cleveland – I really don’t think that there could be a smoother transition for Carson Wentz to go from college football to the pros than playing the Browns.

11 – INDIANAPOLIS over Detroit – The Colts obviously have some work to do to show that last season was a fluke. That process should easily begin this week.

10 – BALTIMORE over Buffalo – For this one, just re-read my last explanation, just replace Colts with Ravens…and it won’t be as easy…hence being rated lower.

9 – DALLAS over New York Giants – The NFC East seems to be wide open every year. Dak Prescott should be more than enough to bridge the gap until Tony Romo comes back for the final playoff push.

8 – ATLANTA over Tampa Bay – As open as the NFC East is equates to how, well, closed the NFC South is. It’s Panthers and Friends. The Falcons should be able to hold off the Bucs as they start to be the best of the others.

7 – Green Bay over JACKSONVILLE – I’ve said that the AFC title game could very well be the Raiders and the Jaguars in five years. The Jags are doing something right, but drawing the Packers in week 1 is something wrong.

6 – NEW YORK JETS over Cincinnati – A couple dark horse AFC candidates collide here to start the season. The Jets need to start the season strong before Brady is freed in Foxboro.

5 – DENVER over Carolina – Yes, the Broncos have a big change at quarterback from the last time these two teams faced off. But even having a guy named Trevor under center would be enough for the Panthers to consistently get passed the Broncos defense.

4 – WASHINGTON over Pittsburgh – The Monday Night schedule starts with a bit of a toss-up. Home field advantage and no Le’Veon Bell gives the ‘Skins the edge here.

3 – Oakland over NEW ORLEANS – Derek Carr should be able to shred a horrid Saints pass defense as the Raiders begin their road to redemption season. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is NOT ONLY WILL THE RAIDERS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, THEY WILL WIN THE AFC WEST.

2 – Minnesota over TENNESSEE – The Vikings lost their quarterback…but lets’s be honest, 90% of a Viking’s quarterback job is handing off to Adrian Peterson and letting him do his thing…which he should easily do in Nashville.

1 – SAN FRANCISCO over Los Angeles – The 49ers will firmly be a part of this year’s “Teams That Should Only Be On The One Point Line If You Think They Will Win” list.