Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
Week 5 was kind in regards to not many fantasy relevant injuries occurring which is usually the life blood of waiver wire action. Despite the lack of injuries there are still some players out on the wire you should consider picking up to play in week 6 and others that are worth a bench stash. Two teams are on bye this week; Buccaneers and Vikings. Good luck!
Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.
Quarterback
Alex Smith (KC) - 18% owned - The Chiefs are coming off a bye-week and return to action against a Raiders defense giving up a league-worst 331 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. This means Smith should be a great streaming option if you're in need.
Running Back
James White (NE) - 46% owned - White has made the list two weeks in a row which means you're missing out if you haven't added him yet. With Brady returning White put up his best fantasy performance of the season with 26 yards on 5 carries and added another 63 yards on 4 catches. Most of his damage came in the first half so It's reasonable to assume his numbers would've been higher if the Patriots hadn't been dominating the entire game.
Devontae Booker (DEN) - 9% owned - The fourth round rookie ended up receiving only 4 fewer touches than the recently underperforming C.J. Anderson in week 5 which indicates the Denver backfield could be headed into a timeshare if Anderson continues to struggle. If you have the bench space available, Booker is worth an add and stash for a couple weeks to see how the situation shakes out.
Honorable mention: Kenneth Dixon (BAL) - 38% owned
Wide Receiver
Cameron Meredith (CHI) - 4% owned - Last week I thought Eddie Royal would see an uptick in production but instead it was the second year Meredith that exploded for 130 yards and a touchdown catching 9 of 12 targets. He should be locked in as the number 2 receiver behind Alshon Jeffery after this performance.
Jeremy Kerley (SF) - 9% owned - Kerley has put up back to back big games now catching 14 of 22 targets for 190 yards and two touchdowns over that span. What's most interesting is he is averaging 9 targets per game throughout the season which means he should have a decent floor week to week.
Honorable mention: Robert Woods (BUF) - 29% owned
Tight End
Jesse James (PIT) - 23% owned - James has now found the end zone in 3 of the last 4 games after scoring in week 5 on top of catching 6 of 8 for 43 yards. If you need a fill in for tight end this week look to James for a decent chance for a touchdown.
Honorable mention: Cameron Brate (TB) - 41% owned
Defense/Special Teams
Tennessee Titans (TEN) - 6% owned - The Titans defense has been consistently average for fantasy purposes all season, but I knock them up a few pegs this week since they play against Cleveland.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
157 Yards
Thursday night, David Johnson set the season high for rushing yards with a 157 yard, 2 TD performance - adding 3 catches for 28 yards. Johnson was the focus of the offense with Carson Palmer out, running the ball 27 times. The Cardinals were able to roll over the 49ers and start to right the ship. They'll get 11 days to recover before playing next Monday night, so look for Palmer to be back and the team to continue to improve.
3 Punt Return TDs
I complained after two weeks that we weren't getting enough returns. Things have started to average out, but the totals are still below where they should be. This week, Red Zone watchers were treated to three punt return TDs in the first half of the noon games. The Dolphins, Redskins and Vikings all rewarded their fantasy owners (probably just Vikings owners out there) with a return TD. This brings us to 7 of the most exciting plays in football we've seen this year.
406 Yards
The Tom Brady Middle Finger Tour 2016 kicked off with a bang in Cleveland. Brady lead the week in passing yardage, getting his 8th career game over 400 yards. This game also featured the proper 2016 return of Rob Gronkowski, going over 100 yards, though Gronk owners squirmed while Martellus Bennett got 3 TD's. The Bengals are the next victim on Brady's list, as he gets some good home cookin' against a team that just can't catch a break.
81 Years
The two top kickers this week have a total of 81 years between them, and they are outperforming all of their younger counterparts. Adam Vinatieri was the first kicker to pass the 20 point mark, going 5/5 with 2-50+ yarders and tacking on an extra point as well. Meanwhile, Sebastian Janikowski went 4/5 after having only 4 attempts through the first 4 weeks. Congrats gentlemen, you're the best fantasy kickers this week.
5-0
The Minnesota Vikings are the last undefeated team in the 2016 season. This is a team that has replaced it's starting QB before the season started, lost its hall of fame running back, yet they're just rolling over everyone in the NFC. Minnesota is on bye for week 6 and has a big matchup against the Eagles coming off the bye. The Bears and Lions in the following weeks means that at least a 7-1 start is all but wrapped up for the Vikings.
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders. Wagering tip of the week: if I'm placing multiple wagers on multiple games, I rank the games in an order based on how confident I am of winning, just like it's a confidence pool. If there are 16 games for example, I would place them in four brackets of four games(or form some system of multiples). The games in the first bracket or two, I would place 2-3 wagers on, including single game bets and parlays. Obviously, the further down the brackets you go, the less you bet on those games. I always put a check mark next to the game every time I use it on a ticket to make sure I don't over play that contest. Remember, don't put all your eggs in one basket, no matter how tantalizing a game line can be.
WEEK 5 PICKS:
ARIZONA CARDINALS 24 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 13 - Even with Carson Palmer sitting out with a concussion, the running game of David Johnson mixed with Arizona's defense, will be way too much for the inconsistent 49ers to handle. Safely take the Cardinals and the low spread as well as taking the over. Mid-to-high confidence points.
BALTIMORE RAVENS 24 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 27 - Baltimore couldn't get it done at home against the Raiders last week, so something tells me they'll fall short against the Redskins. Washington isn't exactly a powerhouse, but I like how they've been playing lately and believe this one will come down to a few big plays. The Redskins are underdogs, so take them and the points. Also, go with the over and low pool points.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 34 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS 17 - Okay, we all know Tom Brady is back and that means a huge increase in offense and points for the Patriots. We know the Browns are the Browns, but they are at home and do have one of the best running attacks in the league. Safely take New England and the spread as well as the over. Go high on the confidence rankings.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 27 @ DETROIT LIONS 24 - We're going to get a chance to see if Carson Wentz is for real when he faces the Lions this week. Or will we? I mean, Detroit's defense isn't really that great and Philly also played against the Browns and the Bears. The only tough challenge was a home game against the Steelers. Even though I am going with the Eagles and the rookie in this one, I am treading with caution on the spread and taking the over. Definitely low pool points on this close contest.
CHICAGO BEARS 20 @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27 - Two struggling teams... one of them will go home with a victory. Since the Colts are at home and have less injured starters, I won't have to flip a coin to predict a winner in this 'loser bowl'. Take the Colts and the spread but stay away from the over/under, it's set up to fail on this match up. Very low confidence points.
TENNESSEE TITANS 27 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS 23 - I'm going against the grain and backing the Titans this week. I don't think Miami's defense can contain DeMarco Murray and think the Fish will be one-dimensional having to throw most of the time. So, take the Titans and the points and definitely take the low over. Low pool points.
HOUSTON TEXANS 17 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 27 - The Vikings will be coming off a short week so I can see them giving up a few more points than normal. I still picture them winning without a problem as the offense gels and the defense keeps on shutting down opponents. The Texans will show flashes of pulling off a victory, but Minnesota's defense will cause one too many turnovers for Osweiler and the gang. Safely take the Vikings and the spread, definitely the over and feel confident picking medium to high pool points.
NEW YORK JETS 16 @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS 34 - The Steelers are rolling and the Jets are in their way. New York has a pretty good defense, but it won't be able to handle Pittsburgh's offense firepower. The Jets will only be able to move the ball based on blown coverage plays by the Steelers' defense. Other than that, I don't see a lot of consistency with their offense this week. Take the Steelers and the spread, go with the under and pick medium-to-medium-high pool points.
ATLANTA FALCONS 23 @ DENVER BRONCOS 30 - Matt Ryan and the Falcons will be flying high into Denver fresh off the beat-down given to Carolina last week. Only the Super Bowl contender(and champion) from last year, which they will be facing, has gotten even better from last season. Sure, their defense is still crazy good, but now the offense is consistent and points are easier to come by. Atlanta will still put up a fair share of points, but this is the week they'll be put in check. Take Denver and the spread as well as the over. I'd stay with the middle ground when assigning those pool points.
CINCINNATI BENGALS 27 @ DALLAS COWBOYS 24 - This is going to be a close game and one that will prove if the Cowboys are for real or not. Personally, I think Dallas is fine without Dez Bryant as they have other weapons in the receiving attack and a great running game. This contest will come down to big plays and I would the Bengals and the very low spread. I'd also lean towards the over and put low pool points on this close game.
BUFFALO BILLS 13 @ L.A. RAMS 23 - The Bills' two-game winning streak will come to an end this week when the stout Rams' defense takes control of the game tempo. Points will be hard to come by, so stay away from the over/under but take the Rams and the low spread. Low pool points due to the close, low score.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 31 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 27 - This is another game that has me going against popular opinion. The Raiders give up a lot of offense to opposing teams and I feel they have been getting lucky. The luck well runs dry this week and Oakland will show it's true colors. They are playing the Charger's weak defense, so getting points won't be a problem. However, it won't be enough to get the job done. Take San Diego and the points as well as the over. I would put very low confidence points on this one.
NEW YORK GIANTS 20 @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 34 - Aaron Rodgers and company are back fresh off a bye week and get to host the Giants at Lambeau. The Packers' defense is middle of the road, so the G-Men will get some points to make it interesting. In the end, Green Bay's passing attack mixed with the solid running of Eddie Lacy, will be way too much for Eli Manning, Odell Beckham and the New York Giants to match. Take the Packers and the spread and go with the over. Put medium pool points on the Pack.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 17 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS 23 - Will Cam play or won't he? This could be a huge deciding factor when trying to pick the outcome of this game. For one, it's a division game and anything can happen. For two, the Panthers have been slipping and now isn't a good time to lose your best offensive player and leader. At the same time, Tampa Bay hasn't exactly been a consistent football team and is one of those squads you just feel uneasy putting your money behind. Personally, I would stay away from picking the spread and the over/under on this contest, as it's what I like to call, a 'succubus' game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
In what seems like a blink of an eye we are already at the quarter post of the NFL season.
Once again last week provided an exciting weekend of, apparently, unpredictable football. This seems like a good time to remind you that a lot of season-long pools will throw out your lowest score of the year.
Let’s just throw week 4 into that category and move on …
Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
14 – PITTSBURGH over New York Jets – The Steelers were looking scary and now they have Le’Veon Bell back. Going to be tough to top them this year.
13 – MINNESOTA over Houston – A defense without JJ Watt is one to not really be feared.
12 – New England over CLEVELAND – New England lost at home last week…Tom Brady is back…Tom Brady is mad…this could be ugly.
11 – INDIANAPOLIS over Chicago – The Colts need a pick-me-up and they need it soon. A home game against the Bears should do the trick.
10 – GREEN BAY over New York Giants – OBJ is off, which means the Giants’ offense is out of options.
9 – OAKLAND over San Diego – The Chargers’ offense seems to be clicking, but their defense won’t be able to contain Derek Carr.
8 – LOS ANGELES over Buffalo – The Rams are 3-1, we’ll call this a deserved gift to be this high on the board.
7 – MIAMI over Tennessee – Someone has to win this one, right?
6 – DENVER over Atlanta – That now makes four weeks without a correct pick for the Falcons. So, again, take this pick for what it’s worth.
5 – BALTIMORE over Washington – The Ravens made a move this week to prove they are going younger. So look for another big game from Steve Smith Sr. … wait a minute …
4 – CAROLINA over Tampa Bay – This pick is based on Cam Newton not playing. IF he is, bump the Panthers up a few lines. But not too far, they have been confusing this season.
3 – DALLAS over Cincinnati – I have no good reason to explain this pick other than the game is played in Dallas.
2 – Philadelphia over DETROIT – The Eagles had an extra week for this one. This week’s BOLD PREDICTION is that CARSON WENTZ WILL HAVE HIS FIRST 4 TOUCHDOWN GAME THIS WEEK.
1 – SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona – The Cardinals were shaky before losing Carson Palmer this week. The 9ers may just be able to pull this one out.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
Well the Vegas fix was in last Sunday in full force. More importantly, I will consider my pick a win since I was picking in a rigged week. Exhibit A can be see here:
This Duke Johnson phantom fumble undermined my premonition of the Browns first win. In all my years watching football I have never seen a play more baffling than this fumble. Duke insta pops out of the pile with the ball as the ref signals Redskins football.
The second fix came in the 4th quarter of a tight Rams Cardinals game. The powers that be made the call that Carson Palmer had to come out of the game because he took a big hit and could have a concussion. Surely somebody bet the house on the Rams money line and stood to make a fortune on the 8.5 point dog. I have no doubt that a brain-dead Carson Palmer would have outperformed Drew Stanton and led the Cardinals to a 4th quarter comeback win at home.
As it stands 128 of the 163 eliminated this week were on that Cardinals pick, trimming the survivor total list down to 314 from the original 871. This coming Sunday I will be fully endorsing the pick against Cleveland strategy. The New England Patriots should be a no brainer. An angry Tom Brady will be making his 2016 debut as a 10.5 point favorite on the road vs the Browns.
Cheers, Drink Five!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and it's pretty clear that this season will be a wild one...like every NFL season. The Falcons managed to drop 500 passing yards on the defending NFC champs, the Rams (?!) topped the Cardinals to go to 3-1, and the Patriots finally proved to be beatable, much to the dismay of Ben Affleck. They get Tom Brady back this week, so their vulnerability may be short-lived. The Cowboys' rookies had a field day against the 49ers, Will Fuller found the end zone twice, and Jordan Howard showed that he was ready for a full workload. The rest of the rookies weren't quite as successful, but there were still some noteworthy performances like the debuts of Paxton Lynch and Paul Perkins. Week 4 is in the books, and the decisions don't get much easier this week with 4 teams and several productive fantasy players on byes. Let's take a look at which rookies could help get you through...
Rookies to Start:
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 5: @Det.): I've been hesitant to buy into Wentz as a QB1, but it's hard not to consider him a top-10 play this week with Brees and Russ Wilson on byes. Wentz gets to square off with the Lions hapless pass defense. Through 4 weeks, the Lions have allowed a 12:1 TD:INT ratio, and a league-worst 120.2 QB rating to opposing signal-callers. The Lions also rank dead last in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat, which measures defensive efficiency. I think the Lions will play a little better at home than they have on the road, but it's hard to not see Wentz as at least a lower-end QB1 this week.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): I don't think you need me to tell you that you should be playing Zeke, but let me give you some numbers to support it. The Bengals have been decent against the run and are likely to stack the box against Elliott (especially if Dez is out), but for the season Elliott has put up a 28-128-2 line on carries against an 8-man box. He also likely put to bed the worries that he'd keep getting vultured at the goal line after scoring a short TD last week. He's got 12 carries in the red zone on the year, and the rest of the team has 7. His volume gives him a safe floor, and those stats I listed should make you feel comfortable starting him in a slightly tougher matchup.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Howard is clearly established as the Bears' lead back after a strong performance against a weak Lions defense. The competition doesn't get that much tougher this week. The Colts rank 26th in run defense DVOA, and have allowed the 4th most RB fantasy points on the season. He should easily return RB2 value this week, and likely more if he's able to get in the end zone.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 5: @Oak.): Make sure that Antonio Gates is officially inactive before pulling the trigger here, but Henry has shown that he has a great connection with Philip Rivers thus far and has made good on most of his chances. The Raiders have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Henry is a solid streaming option again this week, and a great pickup if your starter is on a bye this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Lynch acquitted himself well in his first regular season action, and there is a chance that Trevor Siemian could miss a game or 2 with a shoulder injury in his non-throwing shoulder. If Lynch does get the call, he's got a great chance at a top-15 week, which would make him a solid QB2 option and even a low-end QB1 play in really deep leagues. The Falcons allow the most QB points in the league and have allowed at least 3 passing TDs in each of their first 4 games. Lynch has shown that he can pick apart a bad defense last week against Tampa, and I'd like his chances to do it again if he gets the nod.
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have allowed 10 passing TDs in 4 games, but they've been better versus the pass than that number would imply. They've ranked 10th in pass defense DVOA thus far, and the Cowboys may be without Dez Bryant again. WIth that said, Prescott has been a top-16 QB in each of the past 3 weeks. He's still a viable option as a low-end QB2, but I don't see a lot of upside for a top-10 performance.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 5: @Mia.): Sharpe has been inconsistent so far, but this is a plum matchup for him. The Dolphins have allowed at least 22 fantasy points to WRs each week, and have been absolutely shredded by WR1s to the tune of 117 yards per game. You're probably a little gun-shy with Sharpe after the way he's played over the past couple weeks, but he actually makes for a nice fill-in option if you have some byes to get through.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Green Bay has been torched by opposing WRs, allowing the 2nd-most points to the position, but the Giants' offense hasn't exactly been on track and the Packers' secondary is getting healthier and had an extra week to prepare. Shepard has been fairly consistent despite a less than stellar outing against the stingy Vikings. He's in play as a WR3/Flex option again this week. I'd be surprised if he totaled less than 50 yards, but I wouldn't bank on this being a big game even though the Packers have been giving up so much to WRs.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 5: @Min.): Fuller's blazing speed has helped him to be a difference-maker for the Texans so far, and likely frustrated some DeAndre Hopkins owners. The Vikings have been excellent against WRs though. They've allowed the 2nd-fewest points to wide receivers so far and just one WR touchdown. Only 3 different teams have allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards than the 9 allowed by Minnesota. This week is more likely to be a bust than a boom for Fuller, but he's still a borderline option with several top wideouts on byes.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NE): The return of Tom Brady could lead to the Patriots running up the score on Cleveland as they get out some frustration from last weekend's loss to Buffalo. As a result, there could be some garbage time stats for Kessler, but I wouldn't count on much here. The Patriots have allowed the 15th-fewest points per game to opposing QBs, and Kessler's previous two opponents had allowed the 14th- and 16th-fewest (Miami and Washington), and Kessler tallied just 9 and 10 points in those games. Expecting much more here would likely be a mistake.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): Washington's breakout was put on hold when he suffered an ankle injury early on against the Bears. He had put up 14 yards on 3 touches before the injury, but now he's questionable for week 5 at best and faces a much tougher defense. The Eagles allow the 2nd-fewest points to opposing RBs, and I'd expect Zach Zenner to see some work even if Washington is able to play. The Lions also continue to force a square peg into a round hole with Theo Riddick mixing in on early down work as well.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. SD): The Raiders' backfield has quickly become a situation to avoid. Even Latavius Murray isn't a safe play at this point as things devolve into a full-blown 3-way split. Jack Del Rio talked up DeAndre Washington last week and mentioned that he would see more action, but he received just 8 touches on Sunday. He's averaged 7.25 per game. In the past 2 weeks, Latavius has handled 21 touches, Washington has had 15, and Richard 10. While San Diego is a great matchup, none of these guys are safe options. Even if you play Latavius, you're hoping he finds the end zone.
RB Josh Ferguson, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): Ferguson had his best opportunity yet in week 4, but failed to take full advantage of it as the Colts tried to battle back from behind in London. The rookie did pull in 7 receptions, which is nice in PPR leagues, but he totaled just 31 yards from scrimmage on 10 touches. Chicago is hardly an imposing matchup, but I would have to be really desperate in a really deep PPR league to even consider playing Ferguson this week.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Booker remains just a handcuff for CJ Anderson. He's a really talented handcuff, but the volume just isn't there for him to have stand-alone value. He's seen just 25 touches for 114 yards through 4 games (6.25 for 28.5 per game).
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 5: @Mia.): You probably aren't playing Henry this week anyway, but if you were considering him as a bye week fill-in, just be aware that he played only 9 snaps in week 4 and the Dolphins have allowed just one rushing TD. His snap share has been steadily declining as DeMarco Murray's strong play has continued. The volume won't be there for Henry to be a viable option this week.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Perkins may still be worth a stash, but for now he's best left on the bench. He managed to put up 80 yards in week 4, but he did so on just 4 touches. Bobby Rainey saw 11 touches and seems to have the receiving back role for now. Rashad Jennings should also be back before long.
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NE): Louis has been playing a lot of snaps over the past 2 weeks with Corey Coleman out, but he hasn't turned it into much production with just 6 catches. He's a burner and is capable of beating the defense for a deep ball, but Cody Kessler has the shortest average target depth in the league thus far, and the Patriots are one of just 2 teams that haven't allowed a pass play of 40 or more yards. There isn't much upside here. Louis likely winds up with 30-40 yards on 2-3 catches.
WRs Charone Peake & Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Eric Decker is very likely out for this week (and potentially quite a bit longer), and the matchup is decent for the Jets, with the Steelers ranking 17th in pass defense DVOA. There's a decent chance that Peake or Anderson will make an impact this week, but good luck guessing which one. Anderson got the start last week, but Peake out-produced him on half as many targets, and also scored a TD on a fumble return. Because of that, I think I'd lean towards Peake if I were picking one of these two, but neither is more than a DFS tournament punt play.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 5: @Den.): Hooper did crack double-digit fantasy points last weekend, and the Broncos stout defense has been vulnerable to tight ends (Cameron Brate just went for 5-67 against them), but he produced those double-digit points on just one target. Jacob Tamme is the tight end you'd want in this matchup, not Hooper.
Rookies on byes in Week 5: RB CJ Prosise,SEA, WR Michael Thomas, NO, WR Tyreek Hill, KC
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 5: @Det.): The Lions still haven't allowed a running back TD this season, but they've allowed over 140 scrimmage yards per game to them and they rank 31st in run DVOA. It's only a matter of time before the TDs follow. Ryan Mathews should be back in this game, but head coach Doug Pederson has already said that they will use more of a committee approach, and Smallwood is coming off a very impressive game in week 2. He'll still have to contend with Mathews and Darren Sproles for touches, but I think he gets more work than Mathews this week and has some legitimate flex appeal in leagues with 12+ teams.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Was.): John Harbaugh declined to endorse Terrance West as the lead back despite his impressive week 4 performance, and Dixon seems to be on track to play in week 5. There isn't necessarily a ton of upside this week for Dixon, but with Justin Forsett gone, Dixon should absolutely be owned. West has never shown much ability as a receiver, and Marc Trestman's offense has averaged 9 passing targets per game to RBs after averaging 10.5 last year. Dixon should be the receiving back going forward, and he'll have a chance to earn a bigger role if West struggles. He's a better PPR add right now, but there is upside for him to become a viable standard league option as well.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 5: @Dal.): Boyd hasn't made the splash that many predicted he would, still struggling to beat out Brandon LaFell in the pecking order, but this week's matchup may work in his favor. The Cowboys rank 24th in pass DVOA, and 3 of the 4 passing TDs they've allowed to WRs have been to slot WRs (Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, and Jeremy Kerley). Boyd runs most of his routes in the slot. If Eifert returns this week, it'll hurt Boyd's outlook, but he's got a real shot to find the end zone this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you make some of the tougher lineup decisions this week to deal with your bye weeks. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week to not be caught off-guard on Sunday if someone winds up sitting at the last minute. The lack of the 'Probable' injury designation has made it tougher than ever to stay on top of who's in and out, so stay vigilant. If you want to tell me how wrong I am or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
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- Written by Jason Evans
We're on to week 5, and I'm sure I'm not alone when I say that I am welcoming my Packers and Eagles back with open arms. This week we won't have our Jaguars, Chiefs, Saints or Seahawks - lots of guys that will be fill-ins this week. We recommend making sure that Latavius Murray and Darren Sproles find their way into your lineup, rather than warming your bench. On the receiving side, Eddie Royal might be a good option to pick up and start right away if you have bye week troubles, but stay away from DeSean Jackson if you can.
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- Written by David Biggs
Injuries are a huge part of the fantasy football season. This year, they have already taken a bite out of the fantasy production of many teams with extended injuries to such players as Adrian Peterson, Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, Ameer Abdullah, and more. The hits just keep coming! This week we’ll look at a few key injuries that may change the direction of some fantasy match-ups.
Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
Newton is in the league’s concussion protocol and has a number of tests to go through and pass before he can suit up on Monday Night Football. Still likely to play, but it puts a lot of owners in a tough spot if he ends up sitting out!
Carson Palmer (QB, ARZ)
Palmer is no ‘Spring Chicken’ and he is also in the concussion protocol for now. The difference for Palmer is that he is scheduled to play on Thursday. If he doesn’t go, Drew Stanton will fill in and likely make the Cardinals look even worse than they already have this season.
Trevor Siemian (QB, DEN)
Siemian has been one of a few surprises this season, putting up some great numbers recently. With a sprain in his non-throwing shoulder, Siemian could easily start under center on Sunday but the Broncos’ healthy new toy Paxton Lynch is also chomping at the bit to play after getting his first NFL snaps in week 4. Regardless, Kubiak has said, “Trevor is our starting Quarterback”, so as of right now we should expect him to resume active duties.
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)
A hairline fracture (and not having Tony Romo as QB) are both keeping Bryant from being especially fantasy relevant so far this year. With only Jerry Jones speaking up on the issue, we have no idea whether or not Bryant will start against the Bengals in week 5. Even if he did start, Bryant may be a suggested sit depending on your bench depth.
Kevin White (WR, CHI)
A sprained ankle has sidelined Bears’ wide receiver Kevin White for now – watch for more news later this week. White has yet to score a TD in the NFL, but with Hoyer playing QB his stats have improved over the beginning of the season. One of these games could prove to be a breakout for White if he avoids serious injury.
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI) & Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN)
Both Ertz and Eifert are scheduled to return to fantasy rosters everywhere. Temper expectations for Eifert in what could be his first game of the season this week, but the Bengals desperately need more targets on that offense and there’s a reason why Eifert is already nowhere to be found on waiver wires. Ertz has been sidelined with a rib injury since week 1, but he’s an exciting prospect with rising star QB Carson Wentz controlling his fantasy destiny. Could be a good year for Ertz.
Chris Johnson (RB, ARZ)
Now on IR indefinitely for a sports-hernia injury, this just means more carries for David Johnson.
Dwayne Washington (RB, DET)
A sprained foot and ankle could sideline Washington for a few games. Be aware of the situation, as The Lions are rapidly losing depth at the position and may look to someone like Karlos Williams or make a trade for other talent at the position if they cannot get healthy.
Doug Martin (RB, TAM)
Looks like Martin will miss one more week (the following week is a bye for the Bucs) and so Sims will continue to fill in as the lead back in Tampa Bay. Not a great play against Carolina, however.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)
News is starting to bubble up in the media about Gronkowski’s hamstring injury and subsequent lack of fantasy production. Not many people expected him to be this hampered early in the season, but if he can’t perform this week with Brady under center it’s already past time to panic.
Jordan Cameron (TE, MIA)
Cameron is out with another concussion and his past history of them means that we can’t expect him back anytime soon. Deep league? Dion Sims is not a terrible choice at the position against a Titans defense with some holes in it.
- Details
- Written by Jason Evans
Taking a look at the player trends over the past few weeks can reveal some surprising things - it's important, though, to temper expectations in some cases and realize that some great (and some awful) performances can be the product of gameflow as much as the talent and/or rising production of a player. But since each player can only be owned by one team at a time in most standard fantasy leagues, you've got to scoop them up before anyone else and make smart decisions as far as when to play a rising (or falling) star. What do you think about these scenarios? Will the players listed below live up to expectations based on recent weeks? Make sure to check out the podcast to find out which side we take on each player.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson (SEA)
Week 2 @ LA - 22/35, 254 yds, 0 TD, 11.56pts
Week 3 vs SF - 15/23, 243 yds, 1 TD, 14.02pts
Week 4 @ NYJ - 23/32, 309 yds, 3 TD, 23.86pts
Perhaps Russell Wilson is inhuman, after all. Ankle injuries, a knee injury, and who cares, he's still trending upward. With zero interceptions over these three games, he's playing efficient football, which is exactly when he and his team are at its best. Wilson is on bye week 5, so we'll delay our prediction on him by one week. He has upcoming matchups against Atlanta, Arizona and New Orleans, so you should be able to confidently start him from now on. We'll set the line and predict next week.
Cam Newton (CAR)
Week 2 vs SF - 24/40, 353 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 30.82pts
Week 3 vs MIN - 21/35, 262 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT, 16.08 pts
Week 4 @ ATL - 14/25, 165 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 15.60pts
Cam Newton exited the week 4 game with a concussion and is currently in the concussion protocol. We know that if he's healthy, he will play. Newton has struggled in recent weeks, though against Minnesota we'd expect that. Last week against Atlanta was more alarming, as the Panthers fell behind and struggled to keep up. Coming up are matchups against Tampa and then New Orleans, a couple of defenses that are giving up lots of points to opposing QB's. We'll start Cam's line at 21 points.
Wide Receivers
John Brown (ARI)
Week 2 vs TB - 1/3, 14 yds, 1.40pts
Week 3 @ BUF - 6/11, 70 yds, 7.00pts
Week 4 vs LA - 10/16, 144 yds, 14.40pts
John Brown exploded back into the fantasy scene this week with an awesome 16 targets. Though he hasn't reached the end zone yet, his re-introduction to the Cardinals offense was a relief for fantasy owners. Coming up are some tougher defenses, but first he gets a crack at the 49ers. Will he be able to remain in Palmer's crosshairs? We'll start his line at 7.5 points.
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
Week 2 vs KC - 7/11, 113 yds, 1 TD, 17.30pts
Week 3 @ NE - 4/8, 56 yds, 0 TD, 5.60pts
Week 4 vs TEN - 1/6, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0.40pts
Where oh where has our DeAndre Hopkins gone? Last week's 4 yard performance was really rough to take, especially against Will Fuller's 20 point performance. So, it's tough to tell right now, but is Osweiler favoring Fuller a lot more than anyone thought he might? Is Hopkins just going through a rough patch and will rebound? He has Minnesota and Denver in the next three weeks, so it's going to be tough to get back to where we expect him as a WR1. We'll start his line at 8 points.
Alshon Jeffery (CHI)
Week 2 vs PHI - 5/7, 96 yds, 9.60pts
Week 3 @ DAL - 5/7, 70 yds, 7.00pts
Week 4 vs DET - 3/5, 46yds, 4.60pts
With no touchdowns this season, Alshon Jeffery has his fantasy owners worried. He's declined in yardage each week this year, and it seems like he's not really a favorite target of Brian Hoyer, who seems like he may keep playing QB as long as he plays well. This week, the Bears play the receiver-friendly Colts, so he could be in good shape for a rebound week. We'll start our line for Jeffery at 7 points.
Running Backs
Jordan Howard (CHI)
Week 2 vs PHI - 3/22yds, 2/2 rec, 9 yds, 3.10pts
Week 3 @ DAL - 9/45yds, 6/4 rec, 47 yds, 9.20pts
Week 4 vs DET - 23/111yds, 4/3 rec, 21 yds, 13.20pts
Jordan Howard has confirmed that for now, he's the starting back for the Bears. While Langford is out, Howard is carrying the load all by himself. With Howard's 5.1 yards per carry, compared to Langford's 3.7 - they will be splitting carries once Langford comes back. This week, Howard faces the Colts, who have given up the second most points to opposing running backs. We'll start his line at 9 points.
Matt Forte
Week 2 @ BUF - 30/100yds, 3 TD, 3/2 rec, 9 yds, 28.90pts
Week 3 @ KC - 15/65yds, 0 TD, 4/2 rec, -1 yds, 6.40pts
Week 4 vs SEA - 14/27yds, 0 TD, 3/2 rec, 16 yds, 4.30pts
Matt Forte is the victim of a terrible Jets offense, and his numbers show it. The Jets have totally fallen apart the last two weeks, with 9 picks from Ryan Fitzpatrick over that time. No backs are going to put up good numbers when their offense turns over the ball that often. The bad matchups continue for the Jets, this week against Pitt and next week against Arizona, both on the road. Forte is a sit consideration for me, until the Jets get their offense back on track. We'll start Forte's line out at 11 points.
Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham
Week 2 @ LA – 3/4, 42 yds, 0 TD, 4.20pts
Week 3 vs SF – 6/9, 100 yds, 1 TD, 14.00pts
Week 4 @ NYJ, 6/8, 113 yds, 0 TD, 11.30pts
Jimmy Graham finally looks like the guy who left New Orleans all those years ago (fantasy football years are much longer than regular human years). He’s finally gotten into a good rhythm with Russell Wilson, and 17 targets in the last two weeks is a great sign. The 12 receptions is even better, but the yardage totals going up and up are best yet. Graham should wind up being the best red zone threat on the team, and ought to look very good going forward. With Graham on bye, we’ll set our line on him next week.
Jason Witten
Week 2 @ WAS – 3/4, 51 yds, 5.10pts
Week 3 vs CHI – 2/2, 25 yds, 2.50pts
Week 4 @ SF – 7/9, 47 yds, 4.70pts
To start the season, it looked like Jason Witten would have a huge role in the Cowboys’ offense, but as Dak Prescott has gotten more and more comfortable, he’s looked Witten’s way less. 14 targets in Week 1 have been followed up by just 15 targets across the last three games. Is Witten’s time of fantasy relevance at an end? Does he need Tony Romo to be worthy of starting? Witten plays the Bengals this week, we’ll start the line at 5 points.
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
The start of week 5 means we are nearly a third of the way through the fantasy regular season for most leagues. Hopefully, your team is sitting in a good position, but if it's not that just means you have higher priority on the waiver wire to use my advice try and turn things around! Four teams are on bye this week; Saints, Seahawks, Jaguars and Chiefs.
Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.
Quarterback
Carson Wentz (PHI) - 38% owned - Coming off a bye-week Wentz gets an amazing matchup against a Detroit defense giving up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. He's a great fill-in if your QB is on bye and even if your QB isn't you should still consider him as a plus streaming option.
Honorable mention: Joe Flacco (BAL) - 34% owned
Running Back
Terrance West (BAL) - 29% owned - West ended up being named the starting running back for the Ravens in week 4 after they surprisingly announced Justin Forsett as a healthy scratch. He made the most of the opportunity by putting up 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. He will have some competition for the starting position coming with Kenneth Dixon returning from injury, but has the first opportunity to separate himself in week 5 against a Redskins defense giving up an awful 133 rushing yards per game.
James White (NE) - 28% owned - White has thus far underwhelmed after taking over for the injured Dion Lewis but he's definitely worth a speculative add this week to see if the return of Tom Brady impacts his fantasy value.
Honorable mention: Kenneth Dixon (BAL) - 25% owned
Wide Receiver
Robert Woods (BUF) - 23% owned - With Sammy Watkins being placed on injured reserve Woods is now the number 1 receiver in Buffalo. While I don't see him as a great talent, I do consider him to be great depth and for your team as an every-week WR3 strictly based on the volume of targets.
Eddie Royal (CHI) - 13% owned - Royal has a long time history of being fantasy fool's gold, but it did look as though he and Hoyer had a connection last week against the Lions after he caught 7 of 7 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. There are talks of Hoyer keeping the starting QB position in Chicago long term if he continues to play well which might mean more upside for the speedy Royal.
Honorable mention: Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) - 37% owned
Tight End
Cameron Brate (MIN) - 10% owned - Brate has looked to take on a big role in the Bucs offense since Austin Seferian-Jenkins was cut, catching 10 of 18 targets for 113 yards and two touchdowns. The volume of targets should make him a high floor play if you need a TE fill in.
Honorable mention: Jacob Tamme (ATL) - 45% owned
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo Bills (BUF) - 44% owned - The Buffalo defense is quietly is tied for the second most fantasy points through four weeks and they have a plus matchup against the LA Rams this week. They are my streaming defense of the week.