Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by David Biggs
Each week, there are hundreds if not thousands of news articles, opinion pieces, injury reports, and more written about the NFL. It's my hope to try and sort out some of these and bring to the top the most relevant and interesting headlines that you can use to set your weekly fantasy lineup with confidence. Want to send me questions/comments/suggestions? I can be reached at
- Kirk Cousins was a top fantasy football QB over the last half of the 2015 season. Looks like he's trying to duplicate that effort again. At 349 passing yards per game with an 8:1 TD:INT ratio, Cousins is making it happen. For most fantasy leagues it's past the trade deadline, but if you're a Cousins owner you should be starting him until he proves otherwise.
- Thomas Rawls was on waiver wire lists everywhere last week. Finally healthy and ready to resume his role on the Seattle offense, he was picked up in most leagues where he was not already owned. It was assumed that he would slowly take carries away from rookie C.J. Prosise, but after Prosise suffered a scapula injury and Seattle dropped their black sheep former starting RB Christine Michael, Rawls is thrust once again into the spotlight (where he performed so well last season). I would expect more of the same this season.. Rawls may take a few lucky teams to the championship.
- Andrew Luck may not start this week as he's in the league's concussion protocol. What will this do the offensive gems from the Colts like Moncrief, Hilton and Allen? From my perspective, it gives them a bit of a hit. If Luck does miss Week 12, Scott Tolzein will start and his impact is not very clear (limited sample size) but it's a definite downgrade from Luck. On the plus side, this may actually be a boost to Frank Gore, who the Colts will likely lean on.
- A.J. Green went down early in the Bengals' game, clutching his leg in obvious pain. After what was feared to be a severely torn hamstring, the latest news is that it was just a strain (partial tear) which should only keep him sidelined for a few weeks instead of the rest of the season. But with all of the injuries to other Bengals' players as well - is it worth it to even bring him back in what could be a lost season? My fantasy teams would sure love to have him back out on the field!
- Stefon Diggs did not practice on Tuesday and that should be a concern to both his owners and also to those who may have or be picking up Adam Thielen from the waiver wire. He went for 65 yards and a touchdown this past week and has been productive in general but much more so when Stefon Diggs has been out (Week 5 vs. HOU - 127 yards and a touchdown). In other news, do the Vikings turn it back around at the end of the season? They play Detroit this week to determine the King in the North.
- David Johnson has 30 less receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins. Yep. That's a thing.
- Jordan Howard has been a welcome surprise from a Bears' offense that has otherwise been blown up from both injury and general lack of talent and coaching ability (that last one is questionable, but there is still a strong possibility that there are changes made there). He's rushed for over 100 yards on average these past 3 games. Now with Cutler and Miller out (in addition to Jeffery), will his production go up, or down? I think we'll see some kind of rotation there going forward which may not be a great thing for fantasy owners.
- LeSean McCoy dislocated his thumb and the medical staff was unable to pop it back in for McCoy to go back out in the game last week - signs point to him starting this week but injuries like this one can sometimes cause players to be limited or held out. Mike Gillislee again becomes a good flex play regardless of whether or not McCoy plays in Week 12.
- Giovani Bernard tore his ACL at the end of the game last week, which puts Jeremy Hill in the forefront of a team that no longer has its major offensive assets available. What are the odds that Hill's fantasy production increases? Pretty good.
- Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles both suffered injuries last week (knee and ribs, respectively), which allowed for rookie RB Wendell Smallwood to step into the driver's seat. He performed fairly well, running for 48 yards and catching 4 passes for 31 yards. Smallwood will have a role this week regardless of whether or not Sproles suits up, as Mathews' MCL will likely leave him sidelined.
- Jay Cutler suffered a torn labrum in the game on Sunday, which may land him on IR. The Bears' quarterback situation does not lead to any fantasy relevance, but this will curb any thoughts of playing Bears' offensive options besides Jordan Howard.
- T.J. Yeldon went down with an ankle injury, which should cement Chris Ivory as the lead back in Jacksonville.. that should lead to more fantasy points, but it certainly wasn't a great omen when Ivory fumbled just after Yeldon exited the game. Yikes!
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
Week 12 is upon us and brings with it bonus Turkey Day games to watch while the inevitable food coma sets in. No bye weeks this week so you should be at full strength assuming the week 11 injuries didn't hit your team too hard. Don't forget to put your waiver claims in, set your lineup for Thursday morning and Happy Holidays!
Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick (SF) - 18% owned - There aren't any teams on bye this week so most people should be ok at the quarterback position, but if not you should look towards Kaepernick. He has been averaging QB1 numbers this season at 20 pts per game and his rushing yards gives him a high floor.
Running Back
Wendall Smallwood (PHI) - 5% owned - Smallwood should be up for an increased workload this week against the Packers since Ryan Mathews is dealing with a sprained MCL and Darren Sproles suffered a fractured rib. Should be a great volume play against an injured Packers defense.
Mike Gillislee (BUF) - 25% owned - LeSean McCoy may have to sit out this week after having surgery to repair an injured thumb. If McCoy does sit then Gillislee will be a great play in a run heavy offense against a Jaguars defense allowing 113 yards per game on the ground.
Honorable mentions: Tim Hightower (NO) - 50% owned, Adrian Peterson (MIN) - 32% owned
Wide Receiver
Michael Floyd (ARZ) - 48% owned - Arizona receivers not named Larry Fitzgerald have been very inconsistent this season but I think this is the week Floyd will have a big game in a dream matchup against the Falcons defense who are giving up a league-worst 29 receptions and 297 yards per game.
Tyler Boyd (CIN) - 6% owned - With A.J. Green looking at a multi-week hamstring injury and Giovanni Bernard out for the remainder of the season with an ACL tear, the Bengals will need to look elsewhere for pass catching options. Boyd, LaFell and Eifert should all see boosts in targets but I believe Boyd has a higher upside than LaFell going forward if you need some depth at the WR position.
Honorable mentions: Brandon LaFell (CIN) - 11% owned, Sammy Watkins (BUF) - 42% owned
Tight End
Vance McDonald (SF) - 8% owned - McDonald appears to have developed some chemistry with Colin Kaepernick lately as he has 180 yards and two touchdowns over the last three weeks. Not a bad play if you are desperately looking for points at TE.
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore Ravens (BAL) - 48% owned - Baltimore has been a top ten fantasy defense all season long and draws a Bengals team in week 12 who is depleted of playmakers. Look for another solid performance from the Ravens defense.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
12 Missed Extra Points
Kickers across the league set a record yesterday, missing 12 extra point attempts in just one day. A few of them were blocked, but most of them were flat out missed. Lead by Mike Nugent and Robbie Gould who each missed two, 8 other kickers joined the fun. Even Adam Vinatieri got in on the action, finally breaking his streak, ending with 44 consecutive made field goals. Want some perspective? In 2014, the last year of the short extra points, there were 8 misses on the whole season. I suspect most defenses (and kickers) weren't even trying back then.
6 Missed Field Goals
Yes, more perspective, yes, more kickers. Across the league in week 11, kickers made 37 of 43 field goals attempted (86%), compared to the 47 of 59 (79%) on extra points. Leading the way is a guy who didn't miss a single kick all day, playing outside in the cold of Kansas City in late November. Roberto Aguayo has been sketchy most of the season but delivered 4 field goals when his team really needed it. Tampa's win on the road against the Chiefs is their best since week 1 in Atlanta. On the other side, maybe this will make Andy Reid do something to get his offense going - he can't rely on his defense to win every game.
88.40 Fantasy Points
We're finally getting good national games on a regular basis. Sunday night's Redskins - Packers game may not have been as close as the good ones last week, but it had plenty of fireworks. The game contained three of the top 5 fantasy players of the week - Rob Kelley, Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, who combined for 88.40 points. If not for a Jared Cook fumble which instantly ruined the Packers comeback chances, there may have been even more points from Rodgers. Instead, we got a look at the backup QB.
1 Pick Six, 1 Return TD
Both the Lions and Vikings D/ST had a pair of touchdowns on Sunday afternoon. Both teams had a pick-six and a kickoff or punt returned, though the Vikings went for 100 or more yards on each of theirs. The Lions got the job done with shorter fields ahead of them. Holding on to first place, they will host the Vikings for the first Thanksgiving game coming up on Thursday. With first place at stake, I expect Matt Stafford and the Lions to do their best to shake the fact that they have trailed during the 4th quarter in every single game this season.
14 Fantasy Points
The high water mark for kickers in Week 11 so far is just 14 points, by the aforementioned Robert Aguayo. Only 4 kickers have reached double digits in fantasy points this week, though Janikowski plays tonight and always has a chance to score big points. Why did I make you read a third stat about kickers, you may be asking yourself. Well, I always try to match up a team's success to that of a fantasy position. This week, 7 of the top 8 kickers come from winning teams - three of them in games decided by less than a touchdown.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an interesting season through 10 weeks. The Zeke and Dak show rolled through another one of the better teams in the league last week. CJ Prosise, Rob Kelley, Wendell Smallwood, and Tyreek Hill all made good on increased opportunities, while one of the steadiest rookie performers took a step back (Michael Thomas). Above all else, the national TV games were actually exciting this week (if you don’t count the Thursday game). While it’s been a rough season for some of the highest drafted skill position rookies, one of them did get some good news this week as the Rams are finally making the move to Jared Goff at QB. Most feel that they waited too long to make the switch, but it’ll be fun to watch at any rate. Maybe Paxton Lynch will be next. Let’s jump in and see what we can expect from the rookies in week 11…
Rookies to Start:
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): The Ravens rank number one in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat which measures efficiency, and have allowed he fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. None of that matters to Zeke. While he likely won’t duplicate last week’s monster game and isn’t exactly a chalk play in DFS this week, no matchup is daunting enough at this point to push him to your bench in season-long leagues.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 11: vs. GB): The Packers’ run defense that was so stout early on this season suddenly has looked vulnerable in recent weeks. They still rank 5th in run defense DVOA, and are in the top-10 in limiting RB fantasy points, but they’ve given up a whopping 77 points to running backs in the past 3 games (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). It’s true that 23 of those points were given up in the passing game, where Kelley has little impact, but with the volume he’s seen lately Kelley should have no trouble being a usable RB2 this week.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 11: @Car.): I think a bounce-back is in order for Thomas after a rough outing against Denver. He had tallied 50+ yards and/or a TD in every single game prior to week 10, and squared off with the best WR defense in the league last week. The Panthers are in the bottom third of the league vs. wide receivers, and Thomas managed to put up 5-78-1 in the Saints’ first meeting with Carolina. I expect something in that neighborhood again this week and think Thomas is back in play as a solid WR3 Thursday night.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 11: vs. Bal.): Prescott finished as the QB10 against Pittsburgh last week, but the matchup is a little tougher this week. The Ravens rank 6th in pass defense DVOA, and allow the 7th fewest QB fantasy points per game. Dak has shown to have a usable floor, with 17 points or more in 8 straight games, but he’s probably more of a high-end QB2 this week rather than a locked-in QB1.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 11: @NYG): I’m not buying the injury talk around Howard. Coach Fox said he was hurt after he was limited to just 2 carries for 11 yards in the second half last week. Howard rolled to 89 yards in the first half and claimed he didn’t suffer an injury when he was first asked. He’s since changed his tune to the company line, but there’s something more going on here. He is practicing in full this week and should suit up. If he’s the lead back this week as he should be, he’ll be a mid-level RB2 in a bit of difficult matchup, but the bogus injury claim makes me question if he will have his usual role in this one. The uncertainty is enough for me to drop him down a few spots to a borderline RB2/RB3 play.
RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): Prosise is a much better option for PPR leagues than standard this week. Thomas Rawls seems all but certain after the release of Christine Michael, and he likely will take a bigger chunk of the workload than Michael did last week. Pete Carroll has already claimed that Rawls will ‘play considerably’ in week 11. With a decreased role and a tougher matchup this week, Prosise will be hard-pressed to duplicate Sunday night’s results. The Eagles allow the 5th-fewest RB points per game. It isn’t all bleak for CJ. The Seahawks offense has been pass-heavy of late, and Prosise is still the best receiving back on the team. Also, the Eagles rank just 24th in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. He should be good to go as a PPR flex, but I’d be cautious about using him in that capacity in standard leagues.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 11: @Dal.): Dixon was productive on 11 touches last week, and his snap share has been steadily increasing. He’s the superior passing down back of he and Terrance West, and the Cowboys have been allowing 54 receiving yards per game to running backs. West has just 12 catches for 77 yards in 9 games this season. Dixon has caught a pass on 41.7% of the plays in which he’s run a receiving route. There won’t be a ton of rushing volume for the rookie, but he is very much in play as a flex option in PPR leagues.
WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 11: vs. TB): Hill saw 13(!) targets last week with Jeremy Maclin sidelined, and Maclin hasn’t practiced all week and appears likely to be out again with a groin injury. The Bucs do rank 7th in pass defense DVOA on short passes, which are Hill’s strength, but they also have allowed the 2nd-most WR fantasy points per game. With the volume Hill is likely to see, he should be a solid WR3 option in PPR leagues, and more of a borderline play in standard leagues. He did average just 8.9 yards per catch in week 10.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Shepard still isn’t producing big yardage numbers, but his target share remains steady and he’s found the end zone in each of the last 2 games. The Bears allow the most WR fantasy points per game in the league, so Shepard is a good bet as a floor WR3 again this week, and he gets a slight boost if Victor Cruz sits again (though that seems unlikely).
Rookies to Sit:
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): The Seahawks have definitely seemed more vulnerable against the pass this year, allowing 200+ yards passing in each of their past 6 games, but they’ve allowed multiple passing TDs just once. Wentz has thrown just 2 TDs and turned the ball over 6 times in the past 5 games, and has just 1 game with over 240 yards since their week 4 bye. The Seahawks struggles make them a matchup you don’t have to avoid with good quarterbacks, but not one you should target with mediocre ones. Leave Wentz on the pine.
QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 11: vs. Mia.): It’s worth keeping an eye on Goff’s start to see how he fares against a middle-of-the-pack QB defense. We’ve seen other rookies have success right out of the gate in recent years. With that said, there’s no good way to justify starting a guy who has spent the past 10 weeks not being good enough to unseat Case Keenum. He should only be considered in leagues where EVERY starting QB is in a lineup.
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 11: @Sea.): Smallwood had a surprising productive game in week 10, but he still played fewer snaps than both Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. He disappeared for weeks after his first productive game this year, with a total of 53 scrimmage yards in the 5 games between his 70-yard outbursts. I’d expect him to fade back to being irrelevant this week.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 11: @Ind.): Henry remains a high-value handcuff for DeMarco Murray who won’t have much standalone value unless something were to happen to the starter. He saw a decent amount of work against Green Bay, but a lot of it was in garbage time with the Titans comfortably ahead. That’s not something you can count on each week with a 5-5 team, and he still only put up 3 fantasy points against the Packers.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Perkins still hasn’t moved ahead of Rashad Jennings on the depth chart, and the Bears’ run defense has been better than you’d think. They’ve allowed the 4th fewest RB fantasy points per game, and held 4 backfields to single-digit fantasy totals in their past 6 contests. Considering that Perkins will split that with Jennings, and will take the lesser part of the split, there isn’t a good reason to fire him up this week.
RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 11: vs. Hou.): The extreme elevation in Mexico City (it’s more than 2,000 feet higher above sea level than Denver) could cause the Raiders to give Latavius Murray some extra rest and even out the carries a bit between he and his backups, but there is no way to know if it will benefit Richard or Washington more. Playing either of them is playing with fire, and it isn’t something I’d recommend.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): Coleman is always liable to break out with a big game thanks to his big-play ability, but Kessler still hasn’t shown the arm to throw deep, and only 4 teams have allowed fewer 20+ yard pass plays than the Steelers have. This shapes up as more of a Terrelle Pryor week, as the Steelers rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WR1’s, and 11th on throws to WR2’s. There is upside, but I would probably steer clear if you have better options.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 11: vs. Buf.): Boyd has topped 40 yards just twice all year, and only once in the past 7 games. The floor is really low, and there isn’t a ceiling to chase.
Rookies on Byes: RB Devontae Booker, DEN, WR Robby Anderson, NYJ, TE Hunter Henry, SD, TE Austin Hooper, ATL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I know, this is an odd call given I just said to sit one of his best wide receivers, but Kessler might make a decent floor QB2 this week. The Steelers have allowed 250+ passing yards in 8 of their 9 games this season, and 14+ QB points in 7 of them. The Browns’ passing game has been a bit of a mess lately, but Kessler should be getting more comfortable as he gains experience and continues to get used to having his full complement of weapons. I like Kessler’s chances at approaching 250 yards and throwing at least one TD…Those are hardly exciting numbers, but there is a chance for more.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Jax.): Washington is the clear number 2 back behind Theo Riddick in Detroit, and the Jaguars have been struggling mightily against the run of late. They’ve allowed over 150 rushing yards in 2 of their past 3 games, and rank 28th in run defense DVOA for the year. If Washington sees 10 or more carries, he may creep into an RB3 day.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 11: @Oak.): I know, Fuller isn’t exactly an unknown guy…but after putting up just 49 yards in the last 3 games he played and then sitting out 2 with injury, he’s probably off your radar a little. It doesn’t help that his QB Brock Osweiler is a complete bum. Fuller should return this week, and there are some things to like about this matchup. Although the Raiders haven’t allowed a top-20 receiver since week 5, they’ve allowed a league-high 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards in 9 games. Fuller is certainly the most likely Texan to come up with one of those. He’s a very risky boom-or-bust option. His floor is basically zero, but he could make a big impact with just one deep ball.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 11: @Ind.): Sharpe is another guy who, like Fuller, isn’t some new name you haven’t heard. He’s been a disappointment for much of the year despite basically being the Titans’ WR1. The Tennessee offense has gotten on a roll lately, and Sharpe’s numbers have finally started to stabilize. He’s had 58 or more yards in 3 of the past 4 games, and scored his first career TD last weekend. Delanie Walker will likely be the focal point this Sunday, but Sharpe is still playing a starter’s snaps and facing a defense that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. He’s actually in play as a WR3 in deep leagues.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week. Keep an eye on the injury report with players like Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Howard, Will Fuller, and others who may affect your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Welcome to week 11! Week 10 was pretty solid for us. Let’s keep that momentum going and get that elusive perfect score this week!
Week 11 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
14 – DALLAS over Baltimore – The Cowboys are scary good! Should be another easy win over another AFC North opponent for the Boys.
13 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Chicago – The NFC East has quietly become one of the best divisions in the league. Contrarily, the Bears have very loudly been one of the worst teams in the league this year.
12 – KANSAS CITY over Tampa Bay – The Chiefs are the hottest team in the league. It will take a lot more than a visiting Tampa team to cool them down.
11 – New England over SAN FRANCISCO – It’s bad enough that the 9ers have to play New England…but after a Patriot loss to boot? Poor guys!
10 – OAKLAND over Houston – The Raiders kind of get gipped with one of their home games being played in Mexico City. At least they had a bye week to prepare for a tough Texan team.
9 – Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND – After the last minute loss to Dallas, the Steelers will have a lot of aggression to take out on the leagues AAA affiliate.
8 – DETROIT over Jacksonville – The Lions are in first place. Just let that sink in. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE LIONS WILL WIN THE NFC NORTH.
7 – SEATTLE over Philadelphia – Seattle showed a national audience last week that they are still a force to be reckoned with.
6 – CAROLINA over New Orleans – Remember when this game would have been a definite game of the week?
5 – WASHINGTON over Green Bay – The Packers…uh…EESH!
4 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – Are the Titans for real? This may end up being a speed bump for Tennessee but they look like a team that can contend in a mediocre AFC South.
3 – CINCINNATI over Buffalo – Cincinnati is running out of time. They need to stack up W’s quick to have any playoff chance.
2 – Arizona over MINNESOTA – After the first quarter of the season, this was set to be a great game. Now, well, its still on the schedule.
1 – LOS ANGELES over Miami – The Rams are proud members of the “If you think they’ll win, keep them on the one-point line” club!
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders.
WEEK 11 PICKS:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 34 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS 31 - I believe this game will be decided by a field goal with the underdog pulling out a road victory. Even though New Orleans' defense is flimsy, I just can't trust what the Panthers are selling me on a weekly basis. And how can you not trust Drew Brees? Division games come down to big plays and I think the Saints have more in the bank than Cam Newton and friends. So I'd take New Orleans and the points, go low on the confidence points and take the over.
TENNESSEE TITANS 33 @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27 - This game could easily have more points scored in it. Both the starting QBs have been putting up excellent fantasy numbers and obviously Murray and Gore owners are not allowed to complain. The Titans' stronger run/pass attack, combined with a defense much more capable than Indy's, leaves a 'close, but not close enough', defeat for the home team. Take the Titans and the points, think low with confidence points and take the over, but don't go crazy with it.
BUFFALO BILLS 27 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS 31 - The Bengals will have a rebound game after their close loss against the Giants in week 10. They have all the pieces on both side of the ball to get the job done, yet lack consistency. Buffalo has the makings of a really good football team if they can get healthy. I like both defenses to keep it under control while the offense boxes the clown enough to combine for fifty-plus. The Bengals and the spread, low to mid confidence points and definitely take the over.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 37 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS 17 - The Steelers are angry and probably won't lose another consecutive game, especially since they're playing the Browns. On the other hand, they better not think the victory is a given and maintain their focus. If they can play to their strengths, Pittsburgh should keep the upper hand throughout the game and pull off a sizeable victory. Grab the Steelers and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 23 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 29 - This is one of those games that I stay clear of as far as picking the spread. I have no problem picking KC just to win, but when points are concerned, I get a bad feeling when it comes to Jekyll/Hyde teams like Buffalo- they can put up a mountain of points one week and trip over their dreams the next. I would stay away from the spread but if was forced to choose, I'd take Tampa Bay and points. Low confidence and take the over.
BALTIMORE RAVENS 23 @ DALLAS COWBOYS 34 - This should be a good game with the Cowboys ending up pulling away, earning a hard fought win. I believe the play of the rookie stars, offense line and defense of Dallas will hold down the fort and and wrangle them a victory. Jeesh. The Ravens are too hot and cold for me when it comes to putting up big points so I'm taking the Cowboys and the spread, medium confidence points and take the over.
CHICAGO BEARS 13 @ NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - The Bears are the Browns of the NFC and the Giants are going to remind them of that. Their defense looked really good this past week against the Bengals and will be way too much for Jay Cutler and the rest of the Bears to handle. I'd take the Giants and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 23 @ DETROIT LIONS 30 - This game will be close with a lot of garbage time production on both ends if you can believe it. Both of these offenses are slow starters bit usually end up putting up decent production. I like the Lions at home. Stafford has some good weapons and isn't afraid to use them. The Jags are too streaky for me and I don't like the flow of their offense. I would take Jax and points on this one even though I think the Lions will win. Low to mid confidence and take the over.
ARIZONA CARDINALS 27 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 16 - I'd like to think that the Vikings have their act together after playing like garbage for the last few weeks, but regardless if they made some corrections, Arizona will be too much for them. The offense of the Cardinals has an identity, something Minnesota lacks. This will be the difference of the game. The Vikings' above average defense won't be able to score points for Sam Bradford and company. Safely take Arizona and the spread, high confidence points and stay away from the over/under.
MIAMI DOLPHINS 27 @ L.A. RAMS 20 - The Rams have a great defense... but that's about it. Miami is more of a complete team and should have no problem getting a win. Take Miami and the spread, low to mid fantasy points as well as the over.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 16 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 30 - Russell Wilson is healthy and the Seahawks are rockin' out with their neon socks out. The one-two punch of Seattle's offense and defense will create confusion and bad decision making for the Eagles. Seahawks and the spread, high confidence points and the under.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 45 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 20 - Tom Brady doesn't lose two games in a row and will probably make a statement this week against the Niners' crappy D. The Patriots' defense isn't perfect and will most likely give up some points, so that bodes well for making the over. Also go with New England and the spread and high confidence points.
GREEN BAY PACKERS 30 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 33 - I'm going against the grain on this one and taking the Redskins. The Packers' secondary has been awful and they just can't get it together as of late. Kirk Cousins and the rest of the kin folk are getting it done and look stronger and stronger every week. I would go with the Redskins and the points, low confidence and grab the over.
HOUSTON TEXANS 20 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 34 - The Raiders have too much power for the Texans and even though defensive statements aren't made by the home team in Oakland, they should have no problem stifling the struggling play of Houston. Easily take the Raiders and the spread, medium confidence points and go with the over.
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- Written by David Biggs
For months in the offseason, we as fantasy football team managers think about who we may pick up in next year’s drafts, which sleeper picks could come through to lead someone to a championship and what lingering injury concerns could come back during a season to haunt a player. Well, we’re here now – just a couple weeks shy of the fantasy playoffs (for most of us), and the players that you snipe from the waiver wire in the coming weeks may just put you down in the annals of fantasy history as a league champion.
Guys who should already be owned: CJ Prosise (SEA – 37%), Robert Kelley (WAS – 48%), Sammy Watkins (BUF – 38%), Jamison Crowder (WAS – 66%), Rishard Matthews (TEN – 55%), Eric Ebron (DET – 58%), Julius Thomas (JAX – 58%)
Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 35% or less of Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.
Week 11 Waiver Wire Quarterback (QB) Pickups:
Joe Flacco (BAL) – 31% owned – Dallas has not been great against the pass this year (20th as of Week 11), and have let in 15 touchdowns and 263 yards per game over the course of the season. Flacco has been up and down this year but is just coming off a great game against the Browns (31/40, 296 passing yards, 3 TDs). Play at your own risk, but upside for Flacco is 20+, easy.
Honorable mention: Alex Smith (KC – 25%) – Terrible outing last week but should have some success against Tampa Bay at home
Week 11 Waiver Wire Running Back (RB) Pickups:
James Starks (GB) – 29% owned – Starks has just come back from injury to a strange backfield and it looks like he’ll be taking over for the time being. Going up against a Redskins’ defense that allows 225 rushing yards per game and 13 TDs so far this year, Starks is a plus play for this week and going forward.
Kenneth Dixon (BAL) – 20% owned – Dixon is quickly becoming the passing down back on the Ravens, and was able to put up 80 all-purpose yards on 6 rushes and 5 receptions in week 10. Trending up, Dixon should continue to split time with Terrance West, but West has an awful average YPC over the past few weeks (2.73 over 4 games) so Dixon may find his way to starting before the year’s end.
Honorable mentions: Jeremy Langford (CHI – 26%), Kapri Bibbs (TB – 29%)
Week 11 Waiver Wire Wide Receiver (WR) Pickups:
Cameron Meredith (CHI) – 34% owned – Oh, Chicago Bears. With Alshon Jeffery suspended for 4 games the Bears don’t really have a go-to receiver. Cameron Meredith excelled for a short time earlier this year with Brian Hoyer at quarterback and is still developing chemistry with Cutler. A risk, but someone has to step up in Chicago!
Eli Rogers (PIT) – 11% owned – Rogers had some great plays earlier this season but was lost in the shuffle and in jury issues that have affect the Steelers over the past several weeks. He has now been involved in the game plan once more, however, with 15 targets over the past 2 weeks for 20+ points in standard scoring leagues. With Coates and Wheaton still nursing injuries, Rogers should be a staple of the offense and a good matchup dependent flex play. Week 11 is Cleveland. Start him up!
Honorable mentions: Kendall Wright (TEN – 13% owned), Tyreek Hill (KC – 17% owned)
Week 11 Waiver Wire Tight End (TE) Pickups:
Vernon Davis (WAS) – 6% owned – Jordan Reed is the #1 guy in Washington, but Vernon Davis has been picking up steam lately, catching 14 passes over the last 3 games for a total of 238 yards. The Packers are giving up the 7th most points to the tight end position.
Honorable mention: Ladarius Green (PIT – 10% owned)
Defenses to target for Week 11:
Miami (@LA), Pittsburgh (@CLE), Detroit (vs. JAX)
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- Written by Jason Evans
There's only three weeks left in the fantasy football regular season, so if you haven't started to panic yet, you might want to consider doing so. This week we have a Thursday night NFC South clash and a Monday night game in Mexico City. I'd take both of those into account when setting your lineup - but what effect playing in a smoggy high altitude stadium will have on the Raiders and Texans remains to be seen.
This week, make sure you're getting Stefon Diggs and Golden Tate in your lineup, and avoid Jeremy Hill Darren Sproles. For more lineup advice, ask us on twitter, @drinkfive or join us each week during the podcast Tuesdays @ 8:30pm CST.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
1005 Rush Yards
Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL on the season for both rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage. His 1250 yards from scrimmage put him in exclusive company with Eric Dickerson and Adrian Peterson as the only rookies to reach that mark in the first 9 games of the season. Those are pretty big names to be compared to, but so far, Elliott looks like he belongs. His play puts him on everyone's MVP list after an off week by Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.
5-4 First Place Lions
Sometimes the best thing you can do is nothing. In typical Detroit Lions fashion, they moved up to first place in the division while watching the three other NFC North teams lose with various levels on incompetency. The Packers were perhaps the most shocked of the afternoon. They found themselves down by 21 and Rodgers did not throw a TD in the second half - a stat that you normally see when the Packers are winning, not losing.
28.60 Fantasy Points
Marcus Mariota abused the Green Bay Packers yesterday, putting up 4 passing TDs after letting Demarco Murray throw one of his own. Mariota is on an amazing streak of games since their Week 5 win in Miami (the team was 1-3 going into that game). Over that time he is averaging 25.4 points per game, has at least 2 TDs in each of those games, only 3 INTs and is 4-2, taking his team back to .500. The Titans finish the season at home against Houston, a game that could certainly decide the division if they keep playing well.
4th & Goal
Isn't it fitting that the team in Sunday night's rematch of Super Bowl XLIX ended up with a team at the goal line trying to score a TD to keep from losing the game. And of course, that that team, being on the goal line and having a bruising running back, chose to throw the ball. And that team lost. It's like poetry. It was a great way to cap perhaps the best Sunday we've had all year. There's been lots of talk about weak prime time games, we got two classics back to back yesterday.
25-23 Bayou Backbreaker
The early games did not lack for the dramatic either. The Broncos and Saints played a good game in New Orleans. Brees struggled early but looked like himself in the 4th quarter when he threw what looked like the go-ahead touchdown late in the game. Looks, of course, can be deceiving. The extra point was blocked and then Will Parks scooped it and 85 yards later he scored the go-ahead two-pointer for the Broncos. This may be the first time I've seen a game losing touchdown scored, but hey, it still counts for fantasy football!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! If you're like me, you're going to need fantasy football to distract you from the nightmare our country brought down on us on election night. We're getting close to the final playoff push, so if you're not mathematically eliminated from contention yet, keep grinding. You might just wind up fighting your way back in. There are a few more byes to get through this week, so fill-ins might be necessary again, and as usual there are a few rookies who may be able to help. Let's dig into this week's matchups:
Rookies to Start:
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Dak is fresh off his best career fantasy game last week against Cleveland. The Steelers certainly boast a better defense than the Browns, but they will still struggle to slow down the Cowboys’ rushing attack, which will open things up for Dak to be able to throw the ball once again. Prescott has scored at least 17 fantasy points (all point totals from ESPN standard scoring) in every game after week 1, and he should again be a top-12 option this week, especially with Stafford, Carr, Luck and Tyrod all on bye.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 10: @Pit.): As mentioned above, the Cowboys should be able to run the ball on Pittsburgh. You know what to do with Zeke. The Steelers have allowed the 4th-most RB fantasy points per game despite allowing just 3 points to the Ravens’ backs last weekend. Zeke should be a no-brainer RB1 this week.
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 10: @TB): Howard regained his stranglehold on the Bears’ lead back role after shredding the Vikings on Monday Night Football before the bye week. Ka’Deem Carey and Jeremy Langford will probably see a little bit of work, but Howard should see the bulk of it. Tampa Bay has allowed at least 14 fantasy points to opposing RBs in every single game this season. Howard should be a locked-and-loaded RB2 in this plus matchup.
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 10: @NO): Booker was less than impressive in a good matchup with the Raiders last weekend, and his backup Kapri Bibbs shined in a limited role. While Bibbs may have earned more work, Booker should still be the lead back and see 60%+ of the RB work. That should be plenty to do damage with against New Orleans. The Saints just got done making DuJuan Harris the RB7 last week, and for the season have allowed the 2nd-most RB fantasy points per game and rank 25th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, which measures defensive efficiency. Booker should be well worth a start as a low-end RB2 or high-end flex.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Wentz has struggled mightily of late with just 2 TDs and 5 turnovers in his past 4 starts, but the Falcons just might cure what ails him. The Falcons have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game, and have allowed 24 points or more to the opposing signal-caller in 6 of their 9 games this season. Wentz hasn’t scored more than 12 in any of the past 4 games, but he has a great shot to break out of that funk this week. He should be a high-end QB2.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Kelley has been named the Washington starting RB for week 10 against Minnesota. He stole Matt Jones’s job ahead of the team’s bye week with a strong performance against the Bengals while Jones sat with an injury. The Vikings have shown some vulnerability vs. the run lately, being shredded by Jordan Howard on Monday Night Football in week 8 and then allowing Theo Riddick to put up 70 yards on 14 carries last week. Despite those two down weeks, the Vikings still rank 9th in run defense DVOA, and I don’t expect Matt Jones to completely disappear from the rotation. I like the Minnesota run defense to get back on track, but Kelley’s expected volume in a tough matchup will make him a decent flex play option this week. I’d be less excited to run him out as my RB2.
RB Peyton Barber, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Chi.): This outlook hinges on Doug Martin’s status for week 10. Martin feels optimistic that he’ll be able to go, but it’s certainly not definitive. The team is already without Charles Sims, Jacquizz Rodgers and Antone Smith, so there isn’t much else there if Martin is out again. The matchup isn’t a good one this week, as the Bears surprisingly have allowed the 3rd-fewest RB fantasy points per game, and have held opposing backs to single-digit points in 4 of their past 5. Because of the tough matchup, I’d lean toward avoiding Barber, but you could do worse if you are in a tight spot this week and Martin does in fact sit again.
WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 10: @Bal.): Coleman’s return to action was less than stellar, but he did see 7 targets as he shook off the rust of a lengthy layoff. He stepped right back into a big role in the offense, and coach Hue Jackson talked about wanting Kessler to throw deep more often and Coleman has averaged 21.4 yards per catch so far. While the Ravens have been solid against the deep ball (they rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws), they’ve still allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game in the league. Coleman is an upside WR3 option this week.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): Shepard finally returned to the end zone last week, and his target share has remained consistent (6-8 targets every game since week 1). The Bengals’ defense has limited WR points this year, but they rank just 24th in pass defense DVOA. Shep remains a viable WR3 option this week, and is actually a pretty good one if Victor Cruz misses this game with an ankle sprain.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 10: @Jax.): Fuller has been fighting through a leg injury the past couple weeks, but seems to be on track to play in week 10. He’ll return to boom-or-bust WR3/4 status if he’s a go. The Jaguars have limited big pass plays a little bit. Only 2 teams have allowed fewer passes of 20+ yards than Jacksonville, but the Jags rank a miserable 30th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. There is upside here, but if you own Fuller you are well aware of the risk he brings as well.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 10: @Bal.): Kessler is nothing more than a desperation QB2 option this week. He’s topped 13 points just once in 4 full games, and the Ravens have an above-average pass defense, allowing the 12th-fewest QB points per game. There are a couple reasons for optimism for Kessler…his receiving corps is back at full strength, and coach Hue Jackson has said he wants Kessler to take more shots downfield. The question is whether or not those deep shots will be successful. Kessler has connected on just 4 of 16 throws that traveled 20+ yards downfield, and as mentioned earlier, the Ravens rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. I don’t forsee this being the week where he gets the downfield game going.
RB CJ Prosise, SEA (Wk. 10: @NE): There are bright spots to mention for CJ this week. He played more than 50% of the Seahawks’ RB snaps on Monday night, and the Patriots have allowed the 3rd-most receptions to running backs in the league. Coach Pete Carroll also said he’d like to get him more work going forward. In spite of his increasing playing time, however, Prosise has topped 1 fantasy point just once all year. I would expect Christine Michael to get more work this week than he got on Monday night. You’re really just buying into coachspeak to expect a productive game out of Prosise this week.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. GB): Henry seems unlikely to play as he battles through a calf injury suffered in pre-game warmups last weekend. The injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for Henry. He had just had his best game of the season the week before, and seemed poised to take a bigger role in the offense. If he is able to play this week, I expect him to have a very limited role, and the Packers allow the 6th fewest RB points per game in the league.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): I will probably get some flak for this call, but I wouldn’t feel great starting Thomas this week. I know, he’s been on an absolute tear with 60+ yards and/or a TD in 6 straight games, propelling him to top-15 WR status for the season. I also know that Drew Brees is an animal at home, averaging 382 yards and 3 TDs per game in the Superdome this year. Despite those numbers, the Broncos’ defense is stifling against WRs. They allow the fewest points per game to the position, and allow a full FIVE points per game less than the next best team. Look, you might not have a better option than Thomas, and he does get the best matchup of the Saints’ WRs, expecting to match up most with Bradley Roby. There is a chance that Thomas has an ok game. I’m listing him as a player to sit just to stress how concerning the matchup is this week. If you have other decent options, I’d play them.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. GB): Even against what has been a crumbling Green Bay secondary, Sharpe just doesn’t have the ceiling to warrant a start. He’s had 2 games in the past 3 weeks with 4 catches and just under 60 yards, but they were his best 2 games since week 1. Rishard Matthews and Kendall Wright are both better options this week. Sharpe’s production has been trending in the right direction, but he’s just not to a point where he’s startable yet.
WRs Robby Anderson & Jalin Marshall, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. LA): Marshall had a solid outing last weekend with a 3-59-1 output in week 9, but he ran just 11 routes in the entire game. Anderson has been playing far more snaps than Marshall, but he appears to be locked in at about 4-40 each week. Their roles will be clouded further with Devin Smith being activated from the PUP list this week. The matchup is actually decent in week 10, as the Rams have been significantly worse vs. WRs on the road than at home (They allow 31 fantasy points per game to the position on the road and 14 per game at home), but it would be really hard for me to rely on any Jets’ receiver not named Brandon Marshall this week.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 10: @NYG): Boyd has maintained a role in the offense after the return of Tyler Eifert, but he’s still a guy you shouldn’t be starting. He’s reached 5 fantasy points just twice all year, and the Giants rank 10th in pass defense DVOA.
TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 10: @Phi.): I liked Hooper last week, and he rewarded you by turning 6 targets into 3-46-1 if you gave him a shot, but I don’t have as rosy an outlook for him this week. As I mentioned last week, Jacob Tamme was leading the league in red zone targets before getting hurt, and Hooper will have a significant role if Tamme is out again. The matchup is much tougher this week though. Philly has given up just 2 TE scores all season, and hasn’t allowed 60 yards to the position in any game this year. There just isn’t a lot of upside for Hooper this week, and you can likely find a better streaming option on the wire.
TE Tyler Higbee, LA (Wk. 10: @NYJ): Don’t get excited about Higbee’s season-high 7 targets or 31 yards last week. He still only caught one of those 7 targets, and has hauled in just 3-of-14 targets on the year. The Jets do allow the 9th-most TE fantasy points per game, but it’ll be Lance Kendricks who benefits from the matchup, not Higbee.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 10: vs. Cle.): Dixon’s increased workload didn’t go quite as planned in week 9. He definitely got more work, tallying 9 touches, but he turned them into just 13 yards against the Steelers. Luckily for him, Terrance West wasn’t much better with 27 yards on 16 touches. The matchup gets much juicier this week. The Browns have allowed 101 RB points in the past 3 games. If Dixon again approaches double-digit touches, he could be a usable flex option.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): Perkins isn’t quite startable yet, but he has reached the point where he is definitely worth a stash. He finally started to see a bigger share of the work last week, and while he got off to a slow start, he played a big part in salting the game away late. He hasn’t quite overtaken Rashad Jennings yet, but the Bengals rank 22nd in run defense DVOA and have allowed 24 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs in their past 4 contests. Perkins will get an opportunity to impress in this one, and it could earn him more work going forward.
WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 10: @Car.): Although he had a down game last week with Nick Foles starting, Hill has proven to have a consistent role in the Kansas City offense. It looks likely that Jeremy Maclin will miss this week’s game, and that should mean in increase in targets for Hill. The Panthers’ secondary has predictably fallen apart after losing Josh Norman, Bene Benwikere and Charles Tillman and replacing them with a bunch of rookies. Carolina is allowing the 6th-most WR points per game, and ranks just 30th in pass defense DVOA on short throws, which are in Hill’s wheelhouse. Hill ranks just 92nd amongst WRs in air yards per target. He also has been targeted on 20% of the snaps he’s played, and he should certainly play more of them with Maclin out. Hill is a great cheap DFS option this week, and could be a solid flex in deep leagues.
WR Roger Lewis Jr., NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Cin.): Lewis could have some value this week if Victor Cruz does indeed sit out against Cincy. The Giants run more 3-WR sets than anyone, with 3 different WRs playing over 85% of the possible snaps this year. I would expect that to continue even if Cruz sits. Lewis has already scored 2 TDs on just 6 targets this season, and he would be thrust into a nearly every down role if Cruz is out. He’s probably a better option as a cheap DFS tournament play than for season-long leagues, but he’s got upside to have a surprising game this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with the tough lineup decisions this week. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure you don't play anybody who's not suiting up. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.