Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Jason Evans
The draft season is upon us, and look no further than drinkfive to provide you with rankings to guide you through your draft. If you still need to prep for your draft, make sure you check out our draft tips podcast for this year.
Fantasy Football Podcast - How to Draft a Winning Team in 2016
The rankings feature many familiar names right at the top - Antonio Brown leads the WR list, The Gronk sits atop the TE list and Purple Jesus has once again risen to the top of the running backs. If you're a gambling man - and if you play this game, I'm sure you are - the best bet in our books is to go with AB if you find yourself with the #1 overall pick, pretty much regardless of your league's format. Make sure to stay tuned to the site for updates as the preseason rolls along.
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- Written by David Biggs
Each new fantasy football season brings along its own sets of dos and don’ts during the draft that depend on a ton of different variables: among them changing schemes in the NFL, teams forming committees at a specific position and your league’s specific rules and draft inclinations. This show is all about how to identify those things and use them to your advantage to draft the best possible team this season.
Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/2/16: How to Draft a Winning Team in 2016
Important off-season moves and updates in 2016:
Fitzpatrick finally re-signed with the Jets – One year, 12 million dollar contract.. ups the values of all offensive players on the Jets. Thoughts on the Jets chances this year? As good or better than in 2015.
Arian Foster signs with the Dolphins – And he looks like he’s in great shape and will easily take over the #1 role in Miami. The issue is that by mid-season the Dolphins may not have a healthy RB between Foster and Ajayi!
Rams relocating to Los Angeles from St. Louis – This news seemed like an eventuality.. how will the team moving affect their performance this season? As they’re a rebuilding team, will it even matter at all? Probably not.
Josh Gordon is back in the game – He’ll miss the first four games but will be back in uniform.. after last year it may be tough to trust this guy but he is the only receiver in the NFL to ever record back-to-back 200 yard games, he’s only 25-years-old and he’s clearly making an effort to turn things around.
Philadelphia Eagles sketchy QB situation – Not only are they keeping Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel (and paying them a decent amount to boot), but they traded up to No. 2 in order to draft Carson Wentz as their up-and-coming guy. Not to mention the fact that new head coach Doug Pederson will likely tone down the formerly pass-happy offense.
Steelers are shooting themselves in the foot – With all of the suspensions and injuries so far this year (Le’Veon Bell - 4 games, Martavis Bryant - 2016 season, Senquez Golson – Lisfranc injury, 12 weeks) the Steelers need to straighten up and fly right. The season hasn’t started yet, guys!
Eddie Lacy – A P90X workout all off-season with founder Tony Horton has helped Lacy get back into shape and he could once again be a top 5 RB option for the 2016 season.
Peyton Manning finally retires – and backup Brock Osweiler walks to Houston where he’ll be the starter. I think I could throw a few passes to Deandre Hopkins, but in all seriousness this is actually a decent landing spot for the new QB. Lamar Miller looks to finally have a bellcow role there as well. Can the Texans be a playoff team in 2016?
Tom Brady – Looks like Brady will finally be getting those 4 games that he was able to avoid in 2015. Jimmy Garoppolo will stand in for him during those first few games.
Draft Strategies for 2016:
Best Overall – Regardless of the many draft strategies out there, this is always a good option. Simply put, it means either creating or grabbing a set of overall rankings that you trust and believe in and then taking the best player available at all times (with the possible exception of later when you have too many of a particular position, etc). Even if you end up taking more RBs or WRs than you wanted early, for example, you could trade them off for the types of players that you might be looking for later.
Zero RB – A lot of writers out there have done pieces on the Zero RB strategy for fantasy football, but it was pioneered by Shawn Siegele at RotoViz several years ago. The idea is basically that going RB heavy has long been a fixture of fantasy football drafts since there are not usually many ‘bellcow’ RBs available. This draft strategy is setting up your team to steadily improve as the season goes on and gambling against the injury risks that seem to occur more often with RBs than with WRs due to their exposure and frequency to big hits. A team that drafts RB heavy in the first few rounds may start off strong but not be able to get over the mid-season or playoff hump as the injury issues begin to take their toll. This is not to say that WRs are immune to injury themselves, of course!
If we look at statistics from past years, it’s common that the top RBs at the end of the season are not even close to the top RBs that were drafted – according to research by 4for4.com, for example, less than half of RBs drafted in the top 10 in the last 5 years ended up providing top 10 value.
Contingency-Based Drafting – Another way to draft which can piggyback on the Zero RB strategy is to draft against injuries. Author and former day trader Nassim Taleb came up with a term for this – something that benefits from chaos – called antifragility. This would refer to a team that is built so that if a random injury, etc was to happen the team may actually get better, or at least doesn’t struggle. If RBs touch the ball more than WRs than we wouldn’t want to draft them using high picks because they would be more likely to succumb to the randomness of injuries. RBs are also more replaceable by their counterparts.. with some exceptions, an average running back can become a fantasy stud if you put him behind a great offensive line. If your 1st round pick tears an ACL, that is far more damaging than an 8th, or 9th, or 10th round pick.
This strategy, therefore, champions drafting multiple RBs in a committee, or grabbing RBs from the waiver wire during the season. The other teams that are drafting RBs early are the same ones that pick up handcuffs that may not be worth anything, and have weak WRs because of their early dependency on RBs.
Grab pass-catching RBs – Whether in PPR or not, grabbing RBs that also have a role in the passing game like Charles Sims, etc is a good bet for teams that want to wait for most of the draft before picking up players in the RB position. Also guys that may be in a committee but are behind a strong offensive line.
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- Written by Jason Evans
The NFL offseason is winding into summer and we're starting to see the OTA's start up, but we're still about two months away from any preseason games, and three months away from games that matter. It's a good time to catch up with what's going on across the league, from a fantasy perspective of course. This article will focus on injuries. For a breakdown of trades and free agent signings, check out our NFL Fantasy Rookies & Free Agent Moves.
Injuries always wind up hitting during OTA's, and if you have a redraft league, you just need to avoid these guys. However, if you're in a dynasty league, the next few months are going to have you nervously hoping to avoid the dreaded ACL tear. Here are the offseason injuries so far:
Perriman still has a lot to do before he sees the field.
Breshad Perriman (WR, BAL) – Perriman’s case has been interesting to follow over the last week or so. Perriman did not play at all in his 2015 rookie season, sitting out with a torn PCL. Then, on June 11th, it was reported that he suffered a partially torn ACL at their OTA’s (how many acronyms can I squeeze into one report?). He quickly went from questionable for the season, to playing at some point in the season and now it’s being reported that he will be ready for the regular season. Stem cells certainly work wonders. Still, all of these injuries mean he’s been off the practice field, and it may mean he’s not going to be a big factor early in the season.
Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF) – Watkins broke his foot at some point during the spring and had surgery at some point after that, eventually reporting it on May 16th. Watkins is currently in a walking boot, sidelined at minicamp and likely to miss at least the start of training camp at the end of next month. He is, however, expected to be ready for week 1. This shouldn’t affect his draft value too much, provided he starts getting a little action in by the middle of August.
Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN) – Last year’s ultimate red zone threat suffered what every coach is afraid of if they’re not playing at the end of January – an injury in the pro-bowl. Eifert’s ankle surgery in late May has a three-to-four month recovery period, which means that he’s likely to miss all of the preseason and probably the first couple of weeks of the regular season as well. This is a big blow to a guy who had the potential to finish in the top 3 TE’s, especially considering the losses at WR the Bengals had in the offseason.
Gary Barnidge (TE, CLE) – Barnidge had sports hernia surgery earlier this month and based on his timetable, should be ready for the start of camp in about 6 weeks. Barnidge was a breakout TE last year and could potentially put up another big year with the lack of other offensive threats in Cleveland.
I hope you enjoyed this while it lasted.
Darren McFadden (RB, DAL) – McFadden reportedly broke his elbow in an accident at home (still the most dangerous place, even for NFL players). With Ezekiel Elliot being picked 4th overall, it’s not like McFadden was likely to see a starter’s role this year, but now he’s going to be out until at least mid-August and will have to work hard to keep Alfred Morris from taking the #2 spot.
Jared Cook (TE, GB) – Cook had “preemptive” foot surgery early this month and will be sitting out OTA’s at the very least. The hope is that he can get back and get lots of reps in with Rodgers during training camp, otherwise his chances for big production are going to be slim.
Jordan Reed (TE, WAS) – Reed is sitting out minicamp with an ankle injury, however this isn’t expected to affect his status for training camp. This just basically serves as a reminder that Reed has missed 14 games in three years, so he’s got the injury-prone tag following him around. If he stays on the field, like last year’s 14 games played, he can be quite productive.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE) – The top TE’s all seem to have landed on this list, many of them for mild issues, thankfully. Originally, it was reported that Gronkowski was held out of practice as a healthy scratch, purely to keep him from getting injured. He then returned to practice and was promptly held out for an undisclosed ailment. This is all typical smoke and mirrors from the Patriots, so I wouldn’t worry about his draft stock. It’s just that with a player like Gronk, you want all the information available.
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF) – Another high profile player just being held out for a very small injury. He’s reportedly got an ankle injury, and not another hamstring injury (he had enough of those last year). As it stands now, McCoy is more likely to miss games due to misbehaving in the offseason, rather than due to his current ankle injury.
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- Written by Jason Evans
The 2016 NFL offseason is fully underway. Fantasy drafts are just a couple months away, pretty soon guys will start running plays without pads and we'll get some fake football in just about 3 months! (August 7, HOF game, GB v IND). There have been lots of big free agent moves, as well as some big time draft picks.
(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast: 5/3/16, NFL Draft 2016 Rookies & Free Agents)
Free Agent Moves
Quarterbacks -
Brock Osweiler (HOU, 4yr, 72mil) - Signed a massive contract with Houston - with numbers like that, he's undoubtedly the starter this year. I see his value as a mid to low QB2, but with the good receiving threats in Houston, he could have some decent upside.
Robert Griffin III (CLE, 2yr, 15-22mil) - The guy who wasn't even given the honor of Kirk Cousin's clipboard last year has signed with Cleveland for a modest deal, worth up to $22 million. RG3 still has to compete to earn his job against Josh McCown and (possibly) 3rd Round pick Cody Kessler. Given the rest of the offensive roster, particularly the receiving core, I don't know who'd even want the job.
Sam Bradford (PHI, 2yr, 36mil) - Re-signed with Philly for a number that might indicate he could be their starter. But then the Eagles traded up to the 2nd pick, drafted a QB (more on him later) and Bradford has been pouting ever since. Now, as of March 9th, it looks like Bradford has ended his holdout.
Mark Sanchez (DEN, Traded from Eagles) - Sanchez was traded for only a conditional 7th round 2017 pick AND the Broncos drafted a QB near the end of the first round. Despite this, it seems like Sanchez is currently the front-runner to start in Denver this year. The strength of the run game, WR core and that defense immediately puts him in the upper QB2 discussion, possibly a lower QB1.
Other moves: Ryan Fitzpatrick is still without a contract. It's been quite a drawn-out negotiation with the Jets, and a few other teams have dipped their toes into the water, but now it seems like there's a 50/50 shot that the Beard doesn't get anything done before the season starts. Chase Daniel signed for 3 years, 21 million with the Chiefs, but he's just their very well paid backup QB. Brian Hoyer signed on with the Bears as their backup (a position that has seen at least 1 start each of the last 6 years).
Running Backs -
Matt Forte (NYJ, 3yr, $12mil) - Forte is certainly going to be the opening day starter on the Jets, however he has both Bilal Powell and Khiry Robinson behind him. Powell already is a solid 3rd down back, so Forte's role may be limited compared to what he's been used to most of his career. Forte being here in the first place is possible, due to the exit of...
Chris Ivory (JAX, 5yr, $32.5mil) - Ivory's landed himself a decent contract on a team that was not blown away by TJ Yeldon's performance last year, though it was still respectable. Ivory will be a serious weapon on a team that had the best pair of WR's last year, one of the best young QB's in the league, and some say, the best looking draft in 2016.
Lamar Miller (HOU, 4yr, $26mil) - Miller also landed a big contract, though it's still a little surprising that Miami let him go. In Houston, Miller will be the main head of a timeshare, though he's slated to get decent majority of the touches. He should be the RB1 we all have expected him to be in the past.
Alfred Morris (DAL, 2yr, up to $5.5mil) - At first, this move looked like a good one for Morris - he would be running behind an offensive line that got Darren McFadden over the 1000 yard mark last year. Then draft day came and now it looks like Morris will be firmly in the 2nd position on the depth chart where he might just be called in for short yardage situations when Elliott needs a breather.
Demarco Murray (Traded to TEN) - Most people would agree that Murray was not used right in Philadephia last year, and he should improve just by moving to a new team. Despite the Titans selection of Derrick Henry in the 2nd round this year, Murray should be a guy who gets a lot of carries this year.
Other RB Signings: Arian Foster is still a free agent, having stated that he will wait until he's fully healthy before signing with a team. Stevan Ridley signed with the Lions. Marshawn Lynch retired, leading the way for Thomas Rawls to take over.
Wide Receivers -
Marvin Jones (DET, 5yr, $40mil) - Wide Receiver was clearly the thinnest position in free agency this year, this being the biggest move and the best free agent is proof of that. Jones will attempt, with Golden Tate, to fill some megatron-sized shoes.
Travis Benjamin (SD, 4yr, $24mil) - Leaving the depleted Browns WR core in even worse shape, he arrives in San Diego, a team that had a very depleted WR group last year. Hopefully Keenan Allen returns to form this year - if so, he and Benjamin could provide a solid 1-2 punch for Philip Rivers, with Antonio Gates taking care of the middle of the field.
Mohamed Sanu (ATL, 5yr, $32.5mil) - It's been a good off-season for ex-Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers. Sanu will be replacing Roddy White in the Falcons offense, and should prove to be a lot more useful than White's last couple of years. Sanu could wind up as an every week starter as a WR3/flex early on in the season.
Other WR moves - Mike Wallace signed with the Ravens. Brandon LaFell signed with the Bengals - they're one of the only teams that really lost depth this year. Nate Washington signed with the Patriots. Rueben Randle signed with the Eagles. Rishard Matthews is on the Titans now. Still unsigned: Anquan Boldin, Roddy White, Andre Johnson
Tight Ends -
Ladarius Green (PIT, 4yr, $24mil) - Green moves into the Steelers' high powered offense to replace the retiring Heath Miller (pause for Heeeeeeaaaaath). Green wasn't going to be the featured guy in San Diego, with Gates coming back for another couple years. We can assume that he's going to love his new spot, and so will, I assume, Ben Roethlisberger. Green is an easy TE1 this year.
Coby Fleener (NO, 5yr, $36mil) - It seems that the Saints have realized that they need to have a serious TE in their offense, and Ben Watson is not going to last much longer, so they turn to youth. Fleener should be an easy TE1, as he was a good receiving TE when he had Andrew Luck throwing him the ball, he just wasn't getting enough chances.
Martellus Bennett - (Traded to Pats) - Bennett's act was wearing thin in Chicago, so the bears sent him to New England (what a terrible punishment). He'll be the best compliment to Gronkowski since Aaron Hernandez - let's just hope he can keep his head on straight.
Other TE Moves: Ben Watson signed with the Ravens. Gates, Zach Miller, Dwayne Allen re-signed. Vernon Davis signed with the Redskins. Jared Cook signed with the Packers.
2016 Fantasy Rookies (see Shawn's Article for in-depth player profiles)
Quarterbacks:
Jared Goff (Rnd 1, Pick 1, Los Angeles Rams) - The Rams traded an awful lot away to acquire the number 1 pick. I expect to see him under center for their first game in L.A.
Carson Wentz (Rnd 1, Pick 2, Philadelphia Eagles) - This is the pick that has Sam Bradford's panties in a bunch. The Eagles traded up to pick Wentz, but with the money they just paid Bradford, it's hard to know who will be the starter this season.
Paxton Lynch (Rnd 1, Pick 26, Denver Broncos) - The third QB taken in the first round, the Broncos also traded up to pick this QB. Lynch doesn't seem like he's going to start right away in Denver, probably to get some time behind a veteran QB.
Christian Hackenberg (Rnd 2, Pick 51, New York Jets) - This pick adds to the mystery surrounding who will start this season for the Jets. Will it be Geno Smith? Will they sign Fitzpatrick? Can the rookie compete for a starting job?
Running Backs:
Ezekiel Elliott (Rnd 1, Pick 4, Dallas Cowboys) - Some people thought that the Cowboys would go elsewhere with the 4th overall pick, but I see this as Jerry Jones being unable to pass up the shiniest, best toy in the store. Lucky for him, this one is real gold, rather than the fool's gold Manziel pick that he almost took a few years ago. Elliott should start right away, and I'm already hearing people talk about him as a potential overall #1 RB in fantasy for this season.
Derrick Henry (Rnd 2, Pick 45, Tennessee Titans) - Henry will get plenty of work in his rookie campaign, but may not be very fantasy relevant with DeMarco Murray carrying the load this year in Tennessee.
Kenyan Drake (Rnd 3, Pick 73, Miami Dolphins) - Drake is a speedster that will be a compliment to Jay Ajayi in the running game. This is good news for Ajayi owners, as it seems that this pick indicates that the Dolphins will be full speed ahead with Ajayi as the starter.
C.J. Prosise (Rnd 3, Pick 90, Seattle Dolphins) - Shawn's overhyped sleeper did indeed shoot up the draft board, being the 4th overall RB taken.
Wide Receivers:
Corey Coleman (Rnd 1, Pick 15, Cleveland Browns) - The Browns needed WR depth perhaps more than any other team. They wound up taking three more WR's in the 4th and 5th rounds. It's clear that the WR position is as up for grabs as any in the league this year.
Will Fuller (Rnd 1, Pick 21, Houston Texans) - Shawn predicted that some team would fall in love with Fuller and his deep ball capability, and he was right. That team was Houston, and it might actually be a good fit. With Fuller lining up opposite of DeAndre Hopkins, Brock Osweiler has some fancy new toys to play with this year.
Josh Doctson (Rnd 1, Pick 22, Washington Redskins) - Shawn's favorite WR in the draft, Kirk Cousins has a nice compliment to DeSean Jackson. Add Jordan Reed to the mix, and you have a receiving core than can keep up with some of the other big names in the division.
Laquon Treadwell (Rnd 1, Pick 23, Minnesota Vikings) - Can someone say WR run? The Vikings haven't had a proper number 1 at WR in a while, so this pick was obvious. Pairing 3rd year QB Teddy Bridgewater with some rookie talent is just the ticket now that the Vikings are moving their games back indoors.
Sterling Shepard (Rnd 2, Pick 40, New York Giants) - As Shawn said, Shepard is the best slot receiver in the draft, and filling that need is going to help the Giants a lot. Odell will be able to hang out on the outside more often, and they need to replace Rueben Randle's receptions anyway.
Michael Thomas (Rnd 2, Pick 47, New Orleans Saints) - The Saints always cycle through a lot of WR's every year - heck, every game really. There will be chances for the rookie, but I don't think he'll be emerging as a fantasy starter this year.
Tight Ends:
Hunter Henry (Rnd 2, Pick 35, San Diego Chargers) - Shawn went three for three on the TE draft order, and had Henry at the top. Henry was clearly the top TE this draft and went to a team that doesn't take the position lightly. Knowing that Gates will be gone in a few years and Green is now in Pittsburgh, drafting Henry is a smart move for the long term, but don't worry about him in redraft leagues this year.
Austin Hooper (Rnd 3, Pick 81, Atlanta Falcons) - The Falcons are still trying to replace Tony Gonzalez, and while Hooper isn't exactly anything special like Gonzalez, he should get some opportunities right away.
Nick Vannett (Rnd 3, Pick 94, Seattle Seahawks) - He's a big TE that got drafted by a team that has a lot of buyer's remorse with the currently injured Jimmy Graham. He'll certainly take some time to develop into a regular starter, but he could rise fast if Russell Wilson likes throwing him the ball.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Draft week is upon us, and for those of us in Dynasty leagues, this certainly doesn't count as 'offseason.' Scouting and staying on top of the NFL rookies is a critical part of the league year, and while landing spots for the top rookies are pretty important, I still like to go into the draft with an idea of who I think the best players are at each fantasy position. With that in mind, here is my pre-draft breakdown of the players to keep an eye out for as you see the drafted names scroll by this weekend. At each of the main fantasy positions, I'll list my top prospects, as well as a couple sleepers of mine and a couple of popular sleepers I think are overhyped. Alright, enough intro...let's dive in:
Quarterbacks:
It's become pretty apparent as we head into the draft that the top two overall picks will be QBs, but I think there are 3 that stand out over the rest. The quarterback position is one where the vast majority of successful NFL starters were first round picks. If you pick a non-first round QB in your rookie draft, you're taking a pretty big gamble. Here's how I see this year's rookie crop:
Top Five:
Goff is the safest QB for rookie drafts in 2016
1. Jared Goff, Cal: Quite simply put, Goff is the safest QB for rookie drafts. You know he's going to the Rams with the first pick, and they aren't selecting him to sit behind Case Keenum. His weapons are going to be limited in year one most likely, but a strong running game should keep the pressure off him. You may be worried about his long-term upside since Jeff Fisher is a run-heavy coach, but Fisher has zero winning seasons in his 4 years with the Rams. If Goff doesn't get them over the 8-8 hump in the next two years, I'd expect L.A. to bring in a coach who will maximize Goff's talents. There will be a learning curve as Goff learns how to play QB from under center, be he seemingly had mastered the Cal offense, and I'd expect him to do the same with the Rams' offense as well over his first couple seasons. Goff's skillset will remind many of Matt Ryan, and I'd put his ceiling in the Ryan range as well. He'll never be an elite fantasy QB, but he can certainly be a QB1 at some point. Goff will likely be a 2nd rounder in most rookie drafts, unless they are 2QB leagues.
2. Paxton Lynch, Memphis: I'm going a little outside of the norm here by not having Goff and Wentz 1 & 2 in some order, but I just don't totally buy into Wenz at this point. I also think Lynch has the potential to be the best fantasy QB in this class. He certainly has work to do to get there, and would be best served sitting behind a veteran starter for at least half a season, but he has the tools to be a really good starting QB. He's got great size at 6'7", 244, and great athleticism. He also does an excellent job of keeping his eyes downfield when he scrambles and looking to throw rather than taking off at the first sign of trouble. He trails only Jared Goff in yards per attempt when under pressure (5.95) and he took just 15 sacks and threw only 4 interceptions all year. He's shown the ability to diagnose and beat the blitz, completing 68% of his throws for 11 TDs and just 1 INT on 81 attempts against blitzing defenses. His performance in Memphis's bowl game hurt his stock a bit, but he was viewed as the best QB in this class before that game, and I think he still may be. Like Goff, he needs to learn to play from under center, and he also needs to land in a situation where there is a path to the starting job by next year. If that happens, Lynch should be taken in your rookie draft by the end of the 2nd round (1QB leagues).
3. Carson Wentz, NDSU: There has been a strange divide between what the scouting community and the NFL teams and their team scouts see in Carson Wentz. The teams love this kid. They see his intangibles, they see his strong arm and athleticism, his size, his accuracy, and they see a franchise QB. The scouts haven't seen the same thing. They see a guy who played against FCS-level competition, was slow through his progressions, looked like his feet were stuck in cement in the pocket, and always looked to run when he scrambled rather than keeping the passing option alive. Those are some pretty serious red flags. While being slow through progressions in FCS means leaving yards after the catch on the field, in the NFL it means turnovers and broken up passes. Not being able to slide your feet in the pocket to avoid pressure means taking unnecessary sacks. Trying to outrun NFL defenders on a scramble will also turn out worse against NFL defenders than FCS ones. Granted, Wentz could improve on these things and develop into a good NFL starter. I just think he has a lot longer way to go than most TV draft experts and the Philadelphia Eagles think he has. I wouldn't take him ahead of Lynch or Goff in rookie drafts, and I certainly wouldn't count on him as a rookie in fantasy.
4. Connor Cook, MSU: Connor Cook is a bit of a mystery to me. At times he looks every bit the part of a future NFL starter. At other times he looks lost, sailing throws to open receivers and making some very questionable decisions with the ball. Who will he be at the NFL level? I think he'll find his way to a starting job at some point, but am not sure how long it'll stick. His experience in big games is a huge plus, and I think most of the accuracy issues he's had are more a result of poor decision-making than poor throws. A good QB coach should be able to minimize those mistakes and make Cook a much more consistent signal-caller. I'm not saying he'll ever be great, but I think he'll carve out a role as a starter and possibly a fantasy QB2 for several years. Think Teddy Bridgewater, Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick level...not great, but serviceable.
5. Christian Hackenberg, PSU: Hackenberg has been seeing some late life in his draft stock over the past few days, but it's hard for me to ignore the past 2 years of game tape. Hack had a very promising freshman year under Bill O'Brien, but in the two years since BOB left Penn St., his mechanics have gone to hell and his accuracy has fallen off a cliff. He's especially erratic when pressured, but he can be inaccurate even when he's not. It's easy to forget that he also had Allen Robinson to throw the ball to in his freshman season, but Hack insists the issue was the coaching change. He still possesses the physical tools teams look for from a QB, but the trick will be getting him back with a coach who can undo the regression of the last 2 years. Since his size and arm strength are the protoype NFL teams look for, I'm sure he'll get a couple chances in the NFL, which is why I rank him this high.
My Sleepers:
1. Cardale Jones, OSU: When it comes to QB sleepers for Dynasty, I prefer to find the guy with mobility and a strong arm. They can learn the rest, but those two tools can't be taught. Since it's pretty much a crapshoot anyway when you're digging this deep...take the guy with the higher floor. Cardale checks the box for mobility, he's got a cannon for an arm, and while he didn't exactly take the starting job and run with it last year, he did make strides as a passer at Ohio State. He still sailed some throws last year and needs to work on playing in a pro-style offense, but the upside is there. He's come a long way from the kid who tweeted out that he didn't go to OSU to 'play school.' I'd even consider Cardale over Hackenberg, especially if you don't need immediate QB help.
2. Dak Prescott, Miss. St.: Prescott, like Cardale, is a plus athlete with a strong arm who needs to learn the position a bit better to be an impact player at the NFL level. His competitiveness and ability as a runner compare to Tim Tebow, but he has much better mechanics in the passing game and a much more accurate arm than Tebow. He actually had a higher completion percentage in college than Goff or Wentz, and with his skillset he could develop into a starter over time.
Overhyped Sleepers:
1. Vernon Adams Jr., Oregon: I've seen a handful of people comparing Adams to Russell Wilson lately, and while those comparisons are only natural - Adams is short, athletic, and an accurate passer - Adams isn't Russell Wilson. Wilson came in to the NFL with a ton of starting experience against top-level competition between NC State and WIsconsin, and Adams has one injury-shortened season at Oregon that followed a career in a similar offense at FCS school Eastern Washington. I love Vernon's swagger. He called himself the 2nd-best QB in the draft after Wentz, and was reminiscent of Willie Beamon at times on the field (if you don't know who that is, go watch the movie Any Given Sunday), but he's got a really uphill battle just to make an NFL roster. If he lands in San Francisco with Chip Kelly, maybe he gets a chance, but otherwise I can't see a good reason to draft him in your rookie draft.
2. Kevin Hogan, Stanford: Scouts will fall in love with Hogan's intangibles and his college W-L record, but he has just an average arm and average accuracy. Against NFL defenses, those are pretty steep disadvantages. Hogan's ceiling is likely that of a career backup.
Running Backs:
The running back position has gone through a huge transformation in the NFL over the past 5-10 years as the workhorse back has become a dying breed. Running back by committee situations rule the NFL landscape, and have made it tough for fantasy players to pinpoint the elite backs who will be the unquestioned starters on their teams. When drafting a rookie back early, you want to make sure it's someone with a chance to be the 3-down back who can do it all like Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles or Matt Forte. Sure, there are pure power guys like Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount who have proven to be capable fantasy starters, but more often than not you are going to want someone more versatile who can score in a variety of ways. When looking for sleepers, that's where it starts to benefit you to find the guys who are really good at one specialized skill like receiving or short yardage rushing. Here are the guys to pay attention to at the RB position:
Top Five:
Henry still needs to develop skills in the passing game1. Ezekiel Elliott, OSU: Elliott should be the top pick in just about every Dynasty rookie draft. Regardless of landing spot, he should start right away, and he excels in every phase of the game. He'll be a true 3-down back. He's a powerful and decisive runner, he's a good receiver out of the backfield, and he's one of the best blocking running backs to come along in some time. Pass protection is often the biggest hurdle to getting on the field for a rookie runner, but that definitely won't be an issue for Zeke. Barring injury, he seems like a surefire top-15 RB as a rookie and a guy who will be a fantasy RB1 soon.
2. Derrick Henry, Alabama: Henry's skill set kind of flies in the face of the description I gave above about what type of RB you look for early in a rookie draft. Based on his college tape and numbers, he offers next to nothing as a receiver (think Alfred Morris). However, he's a freak athlete with a nose for the end-zone who should do enough damage on 1st and 2nd down to offset what he loses if he sits on 3rd. There will be scouts and pundits who talk about how he had too many carries in college, and how he doesn't break enough tackles and runs too upright, or how his stats are a product of his o-line. Don't buy any of it. Henry should put up 10+ TDs annually as the power half of a running back committee, and I think he will have multiple 1,000-yard seasons in his career. If he adds to his receiving game skills...look out.
3. Kenneth Dixon, La. Tech.: Like Elliott, Dixon has the skills to be a 3-down back in the NFL. He not quite the runner or blocker that Elliott is, but he excels as a receiver out of the backfield and was ultra-productive in college. He just has the most well-rounded game of any rookie back not named Ezekiel, and his pass blocking chops give him a good chance to be fantasy relevant as a rookie.
4. Paul Perkins, UCLA: Perkins has a slight frame, weighing just 210 lbs, but he is one of the more elusive backs in the draft. He forced a missed tackle every 3.2 carries, which is the best rate of any back in this class who carried at least 100 times last year. He has also showed an ability to run between the tackles despite his size, and in the games I saw he ran with a bit of a mean streak. He also has the skills to be a plus receiver out of the backfield. His size might make pass protection an issue against larger pass rushers, but at the very least he should be able to earn a change-of-pace role as a rookie, and likely more. Based on his size and production in college, Perkins most similarly compares to Shane Vereen, but I like his chances to carve out a bigger role as a runner in his career than Vereen ever has. I'd be really comfortable with Perkins early in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.
5. Jordan Howard, Indiana: Howard is an excellent runner who would likely find himself higher on this list if not for durability concerns. He missed 4 games last year with injury, and parts of the previous 2 seasons as well. He still needs to work on his pass protection technique, but he's a willing blocker. He hasn't shown much as a receiver on his college tape, but he hasn't really had a lot of opportunity to do so. He does have soft hands and could excel in the passing game if given the chance. If you think the injury concerns are overblown, by all means draft him higher. One AFC running backs coach called him the best pure runner in the draft. For me, the injury history is enough reason to drop him down a couple spots.
My Sleepers:
1. Jonathan Williams, Arkansas: Williams ran for over 1,000 yards in 2014 despite splitting time with Alex Collins in a run-heavy Arkansas offense. He was poised for bigger things in 2015 before foot surgery sidelined him for the season. While Collins ran for over 1,000 yards for 3 straight years, it's Williams who projects as the better pro. He has the traits to be a 3-down back if given the opportunity, and he should be available well after Collins in most rookie drafts.
2. Keenan Reynolds, Navy: OK, so this one is a little bit of a longshot, but Reynolds didn't run for 78 rushing scores in the past 3 years by accident. He certainly has a learning curve ahead to transition from a college option QB to an NFL running back, but he certainly has the toughness and athleticism to do it. If he lands on a team with a creative offensive playcaller, he could really carve out a role as a dynamic weapon in the same vein as Denard Robinson. I really think somehow Reynolds winds up a Patriot, and I think Belichick makes good use of him. He's no more than a late round rookie pick in your dynasty drafts, but he's certainly a name to remember.
Overhyped Sleepers:
1. C.J. Prosise, ND: I just don't buy the hype with Prosise. He's been flying up draft boards and rookie rankings among pundits over the past month, and I get what there is to like...He's been through 2 position changes in college (Safety to WR to RB) and continued to be productive. He flashed the speed of a feature back, and his past work at WR gives him a more dynamic skillset in the passing game, but I still feel like his future is basically what we've seen lately from Theo Riddick. Riddick is a nice player and a great PPR asset, but most rookie rankings I've seen have C.J. in the top 4-5 RBs, and that's just higher than I'm willing to take a guy that I see as another Theo Riddick.
2. Devontae Booker, Utah: You will see a lot of rookie rankings that have Booker in their top-5 RBs, and his combine testing and college prodction will back that ranking up, but there are a lot of red flags with Booker. For starters, Booker will play his rookie season at 24 years old. He also needs to work on his pass protection, which can delay how quickly he gets on the field. He had surgery in November for a torn meniscus, which is an injury that can cause future knee problems, and he lacks top-end speed. When you add that all up, he's a guy that should be avoided in the range he's likely to be drafted. I'd love Booker if he fell to the 3rd round...but he won't.
Wide Receivers:
The wide receiver position has become the backbone of a good Dynasty squad. The NFL has become an increasingly pass-heavy league, and wideouts don't typically have the same year-to-year swings in production that the top running backs do. The most successful dynasty teams are typically built around a stable of talented WRs. While this year's class isn't given the same credit the last two classes received, there are plenty of WRs to keep an eye on in the 2016 draft who can be a big help to your fantasy team:
Top Five:
Could Doctson be the next DeAndre Hopkins?1. Josh Doctson, TCU: For me, Doctson is the number 2 prospect in this entire class behind Ezekiel Elliott. He checks every box...he crushed the physical testing at the combine, he was extremely productive on the field, and he has the measurables you look for in a number 1 wide receiver. The biggest knock on Doctson is that he doesn't have top-end speed. He doesn't need it. He is a technician as a route-runner, and is the best in this class at high-pointing the football and making contested catches. Some scouts will say he needs to bulk up to beat press coverage, but at worst Doctson projects as a very good number 2 WR for an NFL team. The NFL player that I think he compares most closely to is DeAndre Hopkins. Cincinnati would be a perfect fit if he gets to them, and they won't hesitate to take him.
2. Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss: Just like Doctson, Treadwell has caught plenty of flack in this draft process for not being faster. Laquon ran a slower than expected 4.63 40-yard dash at his pro day, but you'd be a fool to let that detract from the fact that he was physically dominant in the SEC. He has prototype NFL WR size, and like Doctson is great at high-pointing the football and winning contested catches over DBs. While there are a lot of similarities between Treadwell and Doctson, I prefer the TCU product because he did a better job of making the tough catches look routine. That penchant for the spectacular catch that Doctson has is the biggest separator for me. Treadwell should still be a top-3 pick in Dynasty rookie drafts.
3. Corey Coleman, Baylor: Unlike Doctson and Treadwell, Coleman has tremendous speed, but while he plays bigger than his size, he still stands just 5'11". He played in a spread offense at Baylor that didn't lead to a lot of contested catch opportunities, but Coleman did struggle a little bit with drops on balls over the middle (10 drops on the year).There is still a lot more to like about Coleman than dislike. He doesn't have the nuance of the position down the way that Treadwell and Doctson do, but he's a tremendous athlete. The most common comparison I've seen for him is John Brown, but I think his ceiling is peak Steve Smith Sr. He should be off the draft board by the middle of the first round of rookie drafts.
4. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma: Quite simply put, Shepard is the best slot receiver in this draft, and that is a position that has become increasingly important in today's NFL. He may be the best route runner in this draft, and has incredible short-area quickness and agility to create separation in his routes. He is undersized and can struggle against press coverage, but several WRs in this class suffer from that. Shepard has exceptional hands with 253 career catches at Oklahoma with just 8 drops, and scouts and coaches alike rave about his character and work ethic. He'll be a terror in PPR leagues and should be a star in the league at some point. The TD totals likely won't match the top 2 guys in this group, but I'd put my money on Shepard to have the most 90-catch seasons of the guys in this rookie class.
5. Michael Thomas, OSU: Thomas is a guy whose evaluations have been all over the place, but pretty much everyone views him as a top-7 or 8 WR in this draft. He's got plenty of size to play outside (6'3", 212), and has enough speed for the position (4.55 40-yd dash), but he just doesn't look natural as a wide receiver. He struggles a bit with press coverage and with running precise routes, but he's shown good hands and great ability after the catch. Most of his work at OSU was done in the short and intermediate areas, but he may have the skill to develop a deep game. If he can get to a point where he looks like he's just playing the game and reacting rather than thinking on the field, he has a chance to be really good. Without knowing if that will ever come, I'd project him to be a similar player to Michael Crabtree, and he should be taken in the late 1st/early 2nd round of rookie drafts.
My Sleepers:
1. Charone Peake, Clemson: Peake was largely overshadowed in his years at Clemson, playing behind Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Williams, but he finally had a chance to get out from that shadow a little bit last year. Granted, he's not a household name, which is why he ends up as a sleeper. DeShaun Watson, Wayne Gallman and Artavis Scott had more attention last year, but Peake has a chance to be really good at the NFL level. He has the physical tools you look for in a number 1 WR. He's tall (6'2"), fast (4.37 40-yd dash), and has a huge wingspan, which will increase his catch radius. He does have some injury red flags, and needs to work on his awareness vs. zone defenses and catching the ball more consistently (5 drops last year), but his upside is huge. He'll likely be drafted before the end of the 3rd round of the NFL draft, and shouldn't make it past the 3rd round in your rookie draft either.
2. Tajae Sharpe, UMass: Sharpe is the most productive receiver in UMass history, and he's gotten there with exceptional route running and great hands in a pass-happy offense. He needs to fill out his frame more to really fulfill his potential, but he's still just 21 and has experience playing both outside and in the slot. I think his ceiling is a rich man's Jerricho Cotchery. While that doesn't sound that exciting, you can likely have him for a 4th round rookie pick or later.
3. Daniel Braverman, WMU: You can make accusations that Braverman is a bit of a homer pick, since I attended school at Western Michigan myself, but his game projects very well to the next level. He has shredded MAC competition over the past 2 years, and actually put up lines of 13-109 and 10-123-1 against Michigan State and Ohio State, respectively in 2015. He's proven that he can get open and produce against top competition at the college level. He's definitely undersized, and he's more quick than fast, but the potential is there for Braverman to be a PPR stud down the road. I'm sure you'll hear comparisons to Cole Beasley, but Braverman will be better than Cole. If he's still available in the 5th round, do yourself a favor and scoop him up, especially if you're in a PPR format.
Overhyped Sleepers:
1. Leonte Carroo, Rutgers: Carroo has decent NFL size and has shown a penchant for catching the deep ball, averaging over 20 yards per catch over the past 2 seasons with 20 TDs. He's also had off the field issues that cost him 2 games last year and he's slower than you would expect for a guy with his deep ball numbers. Rutgers' play-action passing game likely helped open him up deep, and I think he's going to struggle to duplicate those results against NFL corners. While I've seen some experts pushing Carroo as a top-5 WR, I think he ultimately ends up as a bust. He was kind of a one-trick pony in college whose one trick isn't going to play as well in the NFL. I'd avoid him unless he slips to the late 3rd round of your rookie draft.
2. Will Fuller, ND: Some NFL team is going to fall in love with Fuller's 4.32 40 time and overdraft him by a bunch. Several mock drafts I've seen show him going in the first round. If that happens, the team that picks him will likely be disappointed. Fuller is a deep ball specialist, with 27% of his catches last year gaining 25+ yards, but there is plenty to not like. He has a slight frame and zero savvy on short underneath routes, meaning he won't do much damage over the middle of the field. He also has struggled with drops, tallying 9 of them in each of the past 2 seasons. Fuller's athlticism is outstanding, but he has so much work to do on the nuance and technique of the position that I don't ever see him becoming more than a deep threat. His skillset should bring memories of Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ted Ginn Jr., Troy Williamson and Cordarrelle Patterson...hardly elite company. Draft in the first round at your own risk.
3. Tyler Boyd, Pitt: Boyd was extremely productive in his 3 years at Pitt. He caught at least 78 passes in each of his 3 seasons there and topped 1,000 receiving yards in 2 of them. He also showed some wheels with his 4.5 40-yard dash time on Pitt's pro day, but he doesn't show that same speed on film. His short-area quickness is really lacking, and he has to get by on route running technique and good hands. In 2015, he averaged about 10 yards per catch on 91 catches, which is an awful average for an elite college WR. The only good NFL receivers who have gotten by with poor ypc numbers are Jarvis Landry and Keenan Allen, and I don't think Boyd is nearly as good as them. He's struggled to get separation against college DBs, and that will only get worse at the NFL level. I'd avoid Tyler at the range he's likely to be drafted.
Tight Ends:
The tight end position is the least exciting position in terms of the rookie draft. Very rarely does a rookie tight end make a big impact on the fantasy landscape, often taking until year 2 or 3 to break out. That doesn't mean you can or should wait until they are 2 years into their career to think about drafting them. Jordan Reed showed flashes of the player he would become as a rookie. So did Rob Gronkowski. Julius Thomas seemingly came out of nowhere when he broke out with Denver, but saavy owners were already on him. While the value of tight ends in rookie drafts is substantially lower than the three positions above, that isn't a reason to ignore them altogether. Here's a look at this year's names to watch:
Top Three:
Henry is set to become an all-around great NFL TE1. Hunter Henry, Arkansas: Henry is the clear top TE in this year's class. In most rookie drafts, he should be off the board in the late 2nd round or early 3rd, and he's an extremely well-rounded prospect. He's an excellent run blocker, and he didn't have a single drop last year while catching 51 passes. His game compares a bit to Jason Witten, who has been as steady as they come over the past decade. Like most rookie TEs, don't draft him expecting to be able to start him this year, but he should develop into a really good NFL starter.
2. Austin Hooper, Stanford: Hooper probably gets a little bit more credit than he deserves due to the recent track record of Stanford TEs in the NFL (Zach Ertz & Coby Fleener). He's got good size and good hands, but he'll struggle to get separation against NFL defenses. He's shown more as a receiver than the next entry on this list, but Hooper still projects to be more Brent Celek than Zach Ertz or Fleener.
3. Nick Vannett, OSU: Vannett has the requisite size and athleticism to be a good NFL tight end, but he has to develop the demeanor to play more physical. He was under-utilized at OSU, but he could be a red zone monster if he embraces his size.
My Sleepers:
1. Thomas Duarte, UCLA: There is a question as to whether or not Duarte is big enough to play tight end in the NFL, but he certainly has the passing game skill to be a tough matchup. His skillset and measurables are reminiscent of Jordan Reed, who was kind of a question mark coming into the league before breaking out with Washington. Duarte will struggle if asked to block regularly, but you're not drafting fantasy TEs for their blocking prowess. He could be a bust due to his lack of size, but Duarte's upside is real if he lands in the right place.
2. Rico Gathers, Baylor: The transition likely won't be an easy one for Gathers, as he is coming to the NFL from the Baylor basketball team, but there has been a long track record of basketball players making good NFL tight ends. Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, and Julius Thomas all played college basketball. Gathers is enormous, at 6'7" and nearly 280 pounds, but he is a good athlete and has soft hands. He won't make an immediate impact, but there is a really high ceiling for Baylor's former power forward.
Overhyped Sleepers:
1. Tyler Higbee, W. Kentucky: Higbee has been a popular name this offseason. He's a former wide receiver with great size at 6'6", 249, but he needs to improve as a blocker and character red flags popped up recently as he was arrested for assault just 18 days before the draft, and the details don't sound good. The victim suffered a brain hemmorhage, and Higbee changed his story to police multiple times. Initially he said the victim got into his and his girlfriend's personal space. He then said the victim called some friends to come fight Higbee, but the call was in a foreign language. When police asked how he knew that's what the victim was saying, Higbee said he "just knew." Once he was at the jail, Tyler completely reversed course and said the guy never tried to fight him, that he was just in their personal space, so he hit him. Again...this happened about two and a half weeks ago. I'd be surprised if Higbee is drafted before late in the 3rd day, and this seems like the kind of thing that may come up again. There is physical talent here, but he's not worth more than an end-of-the-draft flyer.
2. Jerell Adams, S. Carolina: I've seen Adams ranked as a top-5 tight end in a lot of rankings this offseason, but he's got a lot of work to do to live up to that. He has some speed for the position, but it's more straight-line speed than athleticism. He's also got below-average hands and isn't a great route runner. NFL teams may like him, but that's not a reason for you to draft him in fantasy.
That's all I've got for this Rookie Report Special. As I mentioned at the opening, where these guys end up will have a huge impact on their fantasy outlook, but it's always important to have an idea of who these guys are going in. Just because a guy goes in the first round or lands in a spot with immediate playing time doesn't mean he'll be an automatic stud. Just ask dynasty owners who drafted Trent Richardson as a rookie. I'll be back a little closer to the season with a 2016 rookie preview. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you want to yell at me about the above rankings (@shawn_foss) and thanks for reading. If you're in Chicago, do yourself a favor and get to the draft in person. You may run into me there. The Rams are on the clock...
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Accountability – you can’t escape it. Not even in the world of fantasy football advice!
All season I have been throwing out my BOLD PREDICTIONS and I am sure you were probably thinking “so what? This jerk probably won’t hold himself accountable for making such amazingly bold predictions!”
Oh you’re wrong, football fan…you’re wrong! Let’s take a look back at 17 weeks’ worth of BOLD PREDICTIONS and see how we did! Thanks for reading this season! Enjoy the playoffs and we’ll see you again in September!
BOLD PREDICTIONS…HERE WE GO!!!!!!
Week 1 – THE BEARS WILL END THE SEASON ON THE CLOCK WITH THE WORST RECORD IN THE LEAGUE and even with the Jordy Nelson injury, THE PACKERS WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL. We started the year with a double dose of predictions…neither of which will come to fruition. While the Bears gave a valiant effort for the #1 spot at times, they will be picking 11th. And seeing the way the Packers played in Carolina and Arizona this year, seems unlikely they’ll be in the Bay Area in February.
Week 2 – THE CARDINALS WILL OVERTAKE THE SEAHAWKS AND WIN THE NFC WEST. Nailed it! Keep in mind this was a prediction made all the way back in week 2. Pretty impressive if you ask me!
Week 3 – THE JETS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS THIS SEASON. Oh so close! Even with all of their off-season turmoil the Jets remained in playoff contention until the last week of the season – thanks in most part to Brandon Marshall having a season that made Bear fans cry.
Week 4 – THE DOLPHINS WILL FINISH LAST IN THE AFC EAST. Nailed it! After making a big splash over the summer, the Dolphins were simply a disappointment.
Week 5 – THE FALCONS WILL WIN THE NFC SOUTH. Channeling my inner-Lloyd Christmas on this one – “The Falcons…I was WAY off!” Just amazing how fast Atlanta fell this year.
Week 6 – ARIAN FOSTER WILL HAVE OVER 250 TOTAL YARDS. 53 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards. Not a terrible game but not the promised 250 yards … or even halfway there.
Week 7 – CHARCANDRICK WEST WILL HAVE THE FIRST 100 YARDS RUSHING GAME OF HIS CAREER. Nailed it! 110 yards and a touchdown against a solid Steelers defense. West and backfield mate Spencer Ware replacing Jamaal Charles were a big reason the Chiefs decided to not lose a game from this point on.
Week 8 – if (Dez) Bryant plays, he will have over 100 yards receiving. Probably should have taken into account the possibility of slow-playing Bryant’s return. 2 catches for 12 yards – that’s what I get for putting faith into the Cowboys.
Week 9 – NOT ONLY WILL THE RAIDERS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, BUT THEY WILL WIN A PLAYOFF GAME. At this point the Raiders were on a hot streak that made it seem like they had finally come over the hump into relevance…then they went on a stretch that reminded the league that they are still at least a year away.
Week 10 – THE JAGUARS WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH. Same deal here. After years of insignificance in the league, the Jaguars seem to have young talent that they can build around for the future…key word being “future.”
Week 11 – IN HIS RETURN GAME, ROMO WILL PASS FOR AT LEAST 300 YARDS. Close, kind of, but no cigar. Romo managed 227 yards against the lowly Dolphins in this one. I swear I hear someone recently saying something about putting faith in the Cowboys.
Week 12 – CAM NEWTON WILL HAVE ANOTHER 4 TOUCHDOWN (PASS AND RUSH) GAME. Only one touchdown, rushing, for Cam in this Thanksgiving matchup. When you’re defense scores multiple touchdowns, on consecutive plays no less, you can take a bit of a break and still get the win.
Week 13 – THE PANTHERS WILL FINISH THE SEASON UNDEFEATED! Once again, SO close! Somehow the Falcons woke up from their season-long nap and handed the Panthers their first and only loss in week 16.
Week 14 – THE GIANTS WILL PUT UP AT LEAST 40 POINTS AGAINST THE DOLPHINS THIS WEEK. Once again, close but no cigar…and once again against the Dolphins. 31 points is a solid performance, but not the 40 that I thought.
Week 15 – THE REDSKINS WILL WIN THE NFC EAST. Nailed it! No other way to respond to hitting on this prediction other than a subtle “YOU LIKE THAT!?!?!?!?” from Kirk Cousins.
Week 16 – ANTONIO BROWN WILL HAVE ANOTHER 200 YARD RECEVING GAME. Only 61 yards? Well I shouldn’t be surprised; he wasn’t the only member of my fantasy team to fail me in the DrinkFive fantasy championship game! Editor's Note: Bwahaha!
Week 17 – DREW BREES WILL NOT BE THE STARTING QUARTERBACK FOR THE SAINTS IN WEEK 1 NEXT SEASON. Obviously can’t say whether this one is right or wrong yet. Keep an eye on it though – if a new coach is on the sidelines in the SuperDome, don’t be surprised if they want to set things up their way.
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- Written by David Biggs
Is your fantasy football season over? Think again! All sorts of leagues are drafting this week for fantasy playoff leagues and we're here to help you out with the smartest picks for the rest of the postseason. Guys like DeAngelo Williams and Julian Edelman could be incredibly risky plays (due to injury concerns), but they could also pay off with a win if all goes well. Here's how we weigh the risk/reward of all of the available fantasy players from now until the Super Bowl..
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This week’s report will be a little bit different. For the most part, season-long leagues have already come to a close…at least if they have a reasonable commissioner. Week 17 is a nightmare to try to predict. It’s like trying to guess what will happen in the lesser bowl games in college. It’s all about which team is motivated to win, which team is motivated to play their starters, and which team is motivated to just get the year over with. Because of this, it’s nearly impossible to accurately predict what will happen in a lot of the games. The wackiness of week 17 will cause me to change things up just a little bit this week and put more of a focus on daily fantasy games. There won’t be a ‘Deep League Sleepers’ section or a ‘Rookies to Sit’ section this week. For those of you still in season-long leagues, I’ll still list which rookies I’d feel good about starting this week and which ones are borderline options, but I’m also going to list a few DFS punt play options at the end. These are low-priced options that not a lot of people are likely to own that can be difference makers in guaranteed prize pool tournaments if they happen to have a big game.
Before we dive in, here are some rookies that won’t come up in the sections below: QB Marcus Mariota (out with injury), RB TJ Yeldon (Likely out with injury), RB Ameer Abdullah (Not getting goal-line work and not trustworthy), RB Duke Johnson (hasn’t produced 15 PPR points since week 7), RB Jay Ajayi (llimited role and tough matchup), WR Devin Funchess (8 catches in his past 5 games), WR Nelson Agholor (hasn’t produced all year), WR Phillip Dorsett (might have liked him as a punt play, but will have either Ryan Lindley or Josh Freeman throwing him the ball), and TE Maxx Williams (brutal matchup).
Alright, let’s dive in to week 17…
Rookies to Start:
RB Todd Gurley, STL (Wk. 17: @SF): Gurley has the best combination of role and matchup of any rookie this week. In the 6 games since their bye week, the 49ers have allowed 132.5 rushing yards and 24.3 fantasy points (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring) per game to opposing RBs, as well as 10 total TDs to the position as well. Gurley put up 146 scrimmage yards and a TD in the first meeting with San Francisco, and it’s one of the few opponents he could face where game script is virtually guaranteed to be neutral or positive for him. He’s a locked in RB1 this week, and would be a chalk play in DFS.
RB David Johnson, ARI (Wk. 17: vs. Sea.): The Seahawks allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league, so Johnson isn’t a great DFS target except as a contrarian play in tournaments, but his role has been too big to sit him in season-long leagues. If Arizona wins and Carolina loses, the Cardinals will secure homefield throughout the playoffs, and the games will occur simultaneously, so the Cards won’t know the Panthers’ outcome beforehand. That should keep them from resting starters. Johnson’s passing game usage gives him a floor that will keep him in the RB2 mix even in brutal matchups. He’s averaged just under 150 scrimmage yards with 5 TDs in his 4 starts, and hasn’t had fewer than 120 yards in any of them. Don’t shy away in championship week just because he faces Seattle.
WR Amari Cooper, OAK (Wk. 17: @KC): Cooper has been far more boom-or-bust than I expected this year, and he likely killed you last week if you played him with his 2-10 line. One thing that he has done consistently this year is bounce back from his worst outings. Cooper has scored 5 points or fewer 6 times this year including last weekend. In all 5 of the previous instances, he topped 10 points the following week, averaging a line of 6.4-113-1 in those 5 contests. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs are 24th in Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA (measures defensive efficiency) on throws to #1 WRs. Kansas City allows 98 yards per game to the opposing #1 wideout, and Cooper put up 4-69 in the first meeting. I like his chances to bounce back this week, and he would make a decent play in DFS and as a WR2 in season-long leagues.
Borderline Options:
RB Karlos Williams, BUF (Wk. 17: vs. NYJ): Karlos turned in a solid effort last week starting in place of injured LeSean McCoy, picking up 97 scrimmage yards and a TD, but there are a couple of concerns this week. First of all, the Jets are a brutal matchup. They allow the 3rd-fewest fantasy RB points in the league. Second, the recent success of Mike Gillislee as a runner could cause him to cut into Karlos’s workload a bit. Gillislee has gained 239 yards on 23 carries over the past 4 weeks (10.4 ypc), and has scored a TD in each of the past 3. With that said, Gillislee is more effective as a change of pace back and Karlos should continue to run as the lead back. He did manage 10 points against the Jets in a week 10 start, and the Bills still boast the best running game in the league (#1 in rush yards and yards per carry). Karlos might be a little lighter than you’d like on yards this week, but I’d still put him at better than a 50-50 bet to score a TD.
RB Javorius Allen, BAL (Wk. 17: @Cin.): Allen was surprisingly impressive against a stingy Steelers RB defense last Sunday. This week he gets to face a Bengals team that has allowed over 6 catches and about 50 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this year, and also 17 or more fantasy points to the position in each of their past 3 games. Allen should be a solid PPR flex play this week, assuming he doesn’t fumble and get benched again.
RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR (Wk. 17: vs. TB): At this point, it appears that Jonathan Stewart is likely to miss the week 17 game with Tampa and Fozzy Whitaker has already been ruled out. That would leave just Cam Artis-Payne and Mike Tolbert as healthy RBs for the Panthers. Artis-Payne will likely cede goal line carries to Cam Newton and Tolbert, but he put up 49 yards on just 5 carries last week , and the volume should be much better in this one. Tampa has allowed at least one rushing TD to a running back in each of the past 3 weeks, and the backs have totaled at least 26 carries in each of those 3 games against them. I’d expect Artis-Payne to be in the 15 carry range, which puts him in the Flex discussion despite his lack of red zone opportunities.
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. Det,): I would probably avoid playing Langford this week if possible, but when the Lions & Bears get together, you can usually throw out the season numbers. Matt Forte was hampered by a back injury last week, and the Bears seem to be grooming Langford to be the lead back next year. Expect him to see the bulk of the RB volume this week. The Lions have been a tough matchup lately (11.8 RB points per game allowed since week 9 bye, 20.6 per game before the bye), and Ka’Deem Carey has been vulturing some goal-line work lately (2 short scores last week vs. Tampa), but Langford should be on the flex radar on volume alone with so few elite RB options right now.
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA (Wk. 17: @Ari.): Lockett was a little bit of a disappointment in week 16, but his volume remained constant. He’s had exactly 7 targets in each of the 4 games since Jimmy Graham went down, and last week was the only game in that stretch where he had fewer than 5 catches and 9 fantasy points. The volume should be there again this week. The Cardinals are a tough matchup as they boast a versatile secondary, but the injury to Tyrann Mathieu improves the pass game outlook for Seattle. Lockett should be a high-risk/high-reward WR3 option this week.
WR DeVante Parker, MIA (Wk. 17: vs. NE): The matchup isn’t great this week for Parker, but it isn’t terrible either. The Patriots are middle of the pack in limiting WR fantasy points (allow 15th-most in the league), but their defensive focus is always on taking away the offense’s favorite options. The Pats should make it their goal to take away Jarvis Landry, which should help DeVante find some room to operate. Miami should also be playing from behind, which will keep them throwing, and Parker has 87 or more yards and/or a TD in 4 of the last 5 games. There’s risk that the ‘Fins phone it in with the season essentially over, but I like Parker’s chances at another solid day.
TE Will Tye, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): I was surprised Tye didn’t do more with Odell suspended a week ago, but Beckham’s return should open things up for the whole offense. Tye scored 7 or more fantasy points in each of the 4 games leading up to last week’s game without Odell, and the Eagles have allowed double-digit fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 3 of their past 6 games, including 24 to Jordan Reed last Saturday. Tye should find himself in the lower half of the TE1 ranks once again.
DFS Punt Play Options:
QB Jameis Winston, TB (Wk. 17: @Car.): You might call Winston more of a contrarian play than a punt play, but his price tag is just $300 more than the minimum for a QB on DraftKings, and with a matchup against the Panthers (allow the 4th-fewest QB points in the league), virtually no one will be using him. While the matchup isn’t good, the game script figures to keep Tampa throwing and the Panthers have been vulnerable to the pass over the past month. Carolina has allowed 22 points to Drew Brees, 23 points to Eli Manning, and 306 yards to Matt Ryan all within the last 4 weeks. Jameis is yet to tally fewer than 12 fantasy points in a game all year, and there is more ceiling in this matchup than you might think. He also remains a floor play QB2 in season-long leagues.
RB Matt Jones, WAS (Wk. 17: @Dal.): This all depends on how healthy Jones is. Washington seems content to rest the majority of their starters this weekend to get ready for the playoffs, but someone has to carry the load at running back. They may look to use Jones more as he shakes off the rust of missing last week with a hip injury. This is a great matchup for the Washington backs, as Dallas ranks 27th in run DVOA on the season, and has allowed 29.3 running back fantasy points per game over the past 3 games. If the team rests Alf Morris and gives Jones enough work to get rolling, he could have really nice upside at a price tag of just $3,900 on DraftKings. Obviously this game is a bit of a wild card, with Washington having little to play for, but the situation is positive if Jones gets enough action to take advantage of it.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN (Wk. 17: @GB): While Diggs hasn’t done a whole lot since his 4-game breakout earlier in the season to convince you he’s a good fantasy option, Green Bay should force Minnesota to throw more than they like to. The Packers rank 26th in pass DVOA against #1 WRs, and Diggs went 6-66 against Green Bay in the first meeting between the teams in week 11. While Diggs is a little more expensive than I would have expected ($4,600 in DraftKings), the price isn’t ridiculous and no one will be on him after his 4-19 showing last week. I wouldn’t be stunned if he ends up in the 20-point range.
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN (Wk. 17: @Ind.): With Zach Mettenberger at QB, trusting Dorial even in a reasonably good matchup is tough to do after last week’s goose egg. However, we’ve seen DGB’s ceiling, and it’s impressive. He’s topped 110 yards twice in the past 4 games, and he does have an exploitable matchup if he isn’t locked up with Vontae Davis all game. Indy has allowed the 3rd-most WR points on the year and Green-Beckham will cost just $3,800 in DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps you set your championship and DFS lineups for this week. I’ll be back within the next couple of weeks with a 2015 rookie recap and will project the 2015 class to next year. If you have any specific questions or complaints, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@shawn_foss) and let me know. As always…good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Happy New Year everyone!
In our last push to get that full season championship, we get a week of divisional match-ups with almost no playoff scenarios finalized – that is a Christmas present in itself. We don’t need to worry about the Panthers benching their starters – they are still playing for home-field advantage thanks to the Falcons. The Redskins have their playoff opening week set, but they play a depleted Dallas team, so no real need to think too much about that game.
It has been another exciting year of football. I think we can all agree that the biggest takeaway from 2015 to take into 2016…the Raiders will win Super Bowl 51!
Week 17 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
16 – CAROLINA over Tampa Bay – Remember how I said that the Panthers still have something to play for? That’s bad news for the Bucs.
15 – CINCINNATI over Baltimore – Baltimore just needs to look towards 2016 and the Bengals will be more than willing to help them put an end to a bad 2015.
14 – DENVER over San Diego – The Broncos always seemed to find ways to win a game in 2015…and the Chargers always seemed to find ways to lose a game.
13 – New England over MIAMI – Simply put, the Dolphins were a joke this year. Tom Brady and friends get to put the final punch line in Miami this season.
12 – Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND – In the spirit of the college bowl season, the Steelers get to play the equivalent of a mid-major college team.
11 – ARIZONA over Seattle – Wow the Cardinals are good! With such an explosive offense and a potentially dominating defense, the Panthers in the Super Bowl may not be a sure thing.
10 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – To say the season has been a letdown for the Colts would be an understatement. They can still sneak in the playoffs with a win and a Houston loss. They’ll do their part and …
9 – HOUSTON over Jacksonville – …well it won’t matter. Houston has been looking solid the last few weeks and should be able to wrap up the dreadful AFC South title.
8 – KANSAS CITY over Oakland – These two teams could very well rekindle their storied rivalry over the next few years. As for this year, the Chiefs look too strong.
7 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Philadelphia – At least the Eagles get to look forward to a non-Chip Kelly led team next year.
6 – New York Jets over Buffalo – The Jets have been a very pleasant surprise this season. A win here and some help will give them a seemingly improbably playoff berth.
5 – GREEN BAY over Minnesota – The regular season ends in Lambeau. The winner of this one wins the NFC North and hosts Seattle in the Wild Card round … the loser gets to play Washington … hhmmm …
4 – St Louis over San Francisco – Cheer up 9er fans – with the way the draft order is playing out, Jared Goff should be there for you to snatch up.
3 – Washington over Dallas – Kirk Cousins probably won’t play the whole game … shouldn’t matter against whoever is left to play for the Cowboys.
2 – Detroit over Chicago – The Bears have been horrible on the lakefront this year – why should this week be any different for them?
1 – ATLANTA over New Orleans – How the mighty have fallen! This game could have been an NFC Championship preview the last few years. My final BOLD PREDICTION of the season is that DREW BREES WILL NOT BE THE STARTING QUARTERBACK FOR THE SAINTS IN WEEK 1 NEXT SEASON.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Happy Holidays!
Last week we had a bit of a Christmas present for you with another pretty solid week. You should be close to if not at the top of your pool by now – you’re welcome! Here is hoping that the picks just keep on giving for you! Have a happy and safe holiday season everyone!
Week 16 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
16 – KANSAS CITY over Cleveland – The Chiefs haven’t lost a game seemingly since VHS was a thing. They host the Browns this week…Merry Christmas Chiefs!
15 – SEATTLE over St Louis – Seattle continues to roll on their way to the post-season. Russell Wilson continues to shine as his backfield continues to crumble.
14 – BUFFALO over Dallas – So many fans will be watching this game just thinking about Super Bowl matchups in the early 90s – Cowboy fans more so since they actually won those games.
13 – TAMPA BAY over Chicago – It’s the Lovie Bowl! New Lovie will have the young Bucs hungry to play their hardest against Old Lovie.
12 – OAKLAND over San Diego – The Raiders were originally on a lower line, but add in the emotions of what will now be Charles Woodson’s last home game and a Raider win is almost a sure thing…helps that they’re playing the Chargers.
11 – MINNESOTA over New York Giants – No O’dell Beckham for the Giants means that they won’t have a way to combat the stingy Viking defense.
10 – Carolina over ATLANTA – The thriller in Jersey last week might just be the last chance of seeing a not round number in the L column for the Panthers this season. If you don’t think Cam is the MVP, you’re doing it wrong.
9 – DETROIT over San Francisco – The Lions offense seems to have returned a bit. Doesn’t matter though, they get to play the 49ers anyway.
8 – Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE – Antonio Brown has been called the Jerry Rice of this era…can you argue against that? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that ANTONIO BROWN WILL HAVE ANOTHER 200 YARD RECEVING GAME.
7 – ARIZONA over Green Bay – Ladies and gentlemen, introducing David Johnson. Packer fans will probably be sick of hearing his name by the end of the night.
6 – DENVER over Cincinnati – This can’t be! Monday Night Football actually has a top matchup of the week? Not two team battling for the top spot…in the draft?? What a concept! The Broncos defense will take advantage of the new Bengals starting QB in this one.
5 – Houston over TENNESSEE – Houston seems to have taken control of the AFC South after a big win in Indy last week. Their reward is a game against the lowly Titans with a backup quarterback.
4 – NEW ORLEANS over Jacksonville – The Saints need to start re-building – a Drew Brees foot injury could very well be the nudge needed to take that step.
3 – NEW YORK JETS over New England – Who knew that this late season matchup of old rivals would actually end up being a good game … with the possibility of the Jets winning?
2 – MIAMI over Indianapolis – Miami has been a big disappointment this year. The only other team that would have the same consideration for disappointment of the year are the Colts. At least the Dolphins get this game at home.
1 – Washington over PHILADELPHIA – The Redskins should pull out a big road win in the race to see who will be the tallest midget in the NFC East.