Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Jason Evans
Taking a look at the player trends over the past few weeks can reveal some surprising things - it's important, though, to temper expectations in some cases and realize that some great (and some awful) performances can be the product of gameflow as much as the talent and/or rising production of a player. But since each player can only be owned by one team at a time in most standard fantasy leagues, you've got to scoop them up before anyone else and make smart decisions as far as when to play a rising (or falling) star. What do you think about these scenarios? Will the players listed below live up to expectations based on recent weeks? Make sure to check out the podcast to find out which side we take on each player.
Quarterbacks:
Marcus Mariota (TEN)
Week 4 @ HOU – 13/29, 202 yds, 1 INT, 9.08 pts
Week 5 @ MIA – 20/29, 163 yds, 3 TD, 1 rush TD, 30.52 pts
Week 6 vs CLE – 17/24, 284 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 28.76 pts
Mariota has exploded the last two weeks, throwing for 6 touchdowns against just one interception. Mariota is still only owned in 61% of yahoo leagues, but he’s the #8 overall QB so far this season. Mariota has a very favorable schedule ahead of him, with 5 of his next 6 games against bad teams before going into his week 13 bye. Mariota has finally found some receiving targets and could easily finish the season as a top 10 QB. We’ll start the line on him at 22 points this week, at home vs IND.
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Week 3 vs DET – 15/24, 205 yds, 4 TD, 26.40 pts
Week 5 vs NYG – 23/45, 259 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 17.86 pts
Week 6 vs DAL – 31/42, 294 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 13.46 pts
Anyone who follows us tracking trends knows that this one was coming. Rodgers is traditionally the gold standard for fantasy football consistency, but this year, especially the last few weeks, he has looked like fool’s gold. So far this season, Rodgers looks much like he did last year in completion percentage and yards per passing attempt, two categories that he used to excel in. Now Rodgers has a short week at home vs the Bears, but he’s likely to be without both Eddie Lacy and James Starks. Will the Bears be just what he needs to get his mechanics corrected, or do his struggles continue? We’ll start the line at 19 points.
Running Backs:
James White (NE)
Week 4 vs BUF – 4/12 yds, 5 rec/50 yds, 6.20 pts
Week 5 @ CLE – 5/26 yds, 4 rec/63 yds, 8.90 pts
Week 6 vs CIN – 7/19 yds, 8 rec/47 yds, 2 TD, 18.60 pts
James White is trending up in both points and touches, mostly thanks to the return of Tom Brady. Everyone knew that the focus of the offense would be much more towards passing once Brady returned, so White’s uptick is to be expected. The biggest question with the Patriots backs has always been – How long will this last? Dion Lewis is waiting in the wings to return, though it may not happen until after the Week 9 bye. With White playing better, do you keep starting him, or offer him up as trade bait? This week, the Patriots go to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers without Big Ben. We’ll start his line at 11.
Isaiah Crowell (CLE)
Week 4 @ WAS – 16/120 yds, 1 TD, 20.20 pts
Week 5 vs NE – 13/22 yds, 4.00 pts
Week 6 @ TEN – 9/16 yds, 3.60 pts
Isaiah Crowell started out the season like he was fired from a cannon. He put up just shy of 400 yards and 3 TDs in his first four games and looked like he was headed towards top-10 RB status for the season. Then it’s like he suddenly remembered what team he plays for, and promptly saw his production drop like a rock. This is partly due to the uptick in touches for Duke Johnson Jr, but when your yards per carry goes from 6.45 (Wk 1-4), to 1.72 (Wk 5 & 6), it’s hard to keep giving him the ball. Crowell is still 90% owned, and started in 51% of Yahoo leagues last week. This week he faces the Bengals in Cincy, and we’ll set his line at 9 points, and ask, would you start him this week?
Wide Receivers:
Jamison Crowder (WAS)
Week 4 vs CLE – 3/2 rec, 21 yds, 2.10 pts
Week 5 @ BAL – 3/3 rec, 35 yds, 1 Return TD, 9.50 pts
Week 6 vs PHI – 4/3 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD, 10.30 pts
Jamison Crowder has a larger role on the Redskins offense with Jordan Reed out with a concussion. It’s not settled if he’s coming back this week, but Reed is often out multiple weeks when he has a concussion. Crowder has made some big plays helping the team win each of the last two weeks. With the decline of DeSean Jackson, can Crowder step up to start filling some of that role? We’ll start the line for Crowder at 7 points for his matchup against the Lions, giving up the 5th most points to opposing WRs.
Antonio Brown (PIT)
Week 4 vs KC – 5/4 rec, 64 yds, 2 TD, 18.40 pts
Week 5 vs NYJ – 11/9 rec, 78 yds, 1 TD, 13.80 pts
Week 6 @ MIA – 8/4 rec, 39 yds, 4.50 pts, 4.50 pts
Antonio Brown was the consensus #1 pick going into the 2016 season, and he already has 2 games where he’s scored under 5 points. It’s not time to panic with Brown, but this week looks like it’s about as tough as matchups get. His starting QB will be Landry Jones and the opposing team will be the New England Patriots. It seems like this so-called juggernaut of an offense can never get going because of injuries and/or suspensions. Brown is the only consistent part, but even this week you may consider benching him. We’ll start our line for Brown at 12 points.
Tight End:
Hunter Henry (SD)
Week 4 vs NO – 7/4 rec, 61 yds, 1 TD, 12.10 pts
Week 5 @ OAK – 4/3 rec, 74 yds, 1 TD, 13.40 pts
Week 6 vs DEN – 8/6 rec, 83 yds, 1 TD, 14.30 pts
Now those are some numbers that are just screaming consistency. Hunter Henry is easily the most impressive rookie TE this season (there were only 3 drafted, after all). Having scored a TD in each of the last 3 games, he’s also drawn 19 targets and is 2nd in scoring over the last 4 games at the TE position. With Antonio Gates hobbled and on the way out anyways, Henry is in a perfect position to continue his breakout rookie season on a team that is always starving for pass catchers. This week, Henry faces the Falcons, who have given up the 5th most points to opposing tight ends. Can he continue his impressive streak? We’ll start his line at 13 points.
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
The conclusion of week 6 means we are halfway through the fantasy regular season for most leagues. This is also around the time where fantasy teams will start to fizzle out if their managers haven't been adding depth from the wire throughout the season. Don't be that manager! Two teams are on bye this week; Panthers and Cowboys. Good luck!
Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues at the time of publication.
Quarterback
Alex Smith (KC) - 28% owned - Well Alex Smith ended up being a bust last week as the Chiefs went full rushing attack with a lead against the Raiders all game. I still like him as a streamer for week 7 as he goes up against the Saints where he will need to pass to try and keep up with Drew Brees. Smith should easily be a QB1 this week.
Honorable mention: Joe Flacco (BAL) - 29% owned
Running Back
Jay Ajayi (MIA) - 31% owned - With Arian Foster limited this week, Ajayi took advantage with a breakout performance against the Steelers putting up 204 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 carries and added a catch for 3 yards. He will have definitely earned himself more playing time going forward and I think at worst case he will split carries with a healthy Foster.
Devontae Booker (DEN) - 27% owned - Booker makes the list for the second week in a row after he continues to out produce C.J. Anderson on limited carries. On the season Booker sports a 4.7 yards per carry average compared to Anderson's 3.5. At the moment he is still a bench stash until we see an uptick in volume from him.
Honorable mentions: Dion Lewis (NE) - 25% owned, Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) - 22% owned (must grab if Doug Martin sits this week)
Wide Receiver
Ty Montgomery (GB) - 1% owned - Montgomery should be heavily involved in the Packers offense on Thursday night against the Bears as he will get snaps both at running back with James Starks out and Eddie Lacy hobbled as well as snaps at receiver with Davante Adams most likely out with a concussion. He played this dual role in week 6 and ended with a stat line of 10 catches for 98 yards and 3 rushes for 6 yards. Considering Montgomery a WR3 with a lot of upside this week.
Kenny Britt (LA) - 11% owned - Britt has quietly been performing very well this season as he is the 15th best WR in standard scoring and has the 8th highest receiving yards compared to other WR so far. With his numbers this season he should be considered a go as a WR3 until we see otherwise.
Honorable mentions: Robert Woods (BUF) - 22% owned, Corey Coleman (CLE) - 39% owned
Tight End
Hunter Henry (SD) - 35% owned - Henry appears to be a fixture of the Chargers pass happy offense as he has put up 290 yards and 3 touchdowns over his past four starts. He's currently the number 3 TE in standard scoring and has a great matchup against the Falcons coming up.
Honorable mention: Eric Ebron (DET) - 46% owned
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore Ravens (BAL) - 33% owned - The Ravens defense has put up consistent fantasy points all season and they have a great matchup against a NY Jets team that can't get anything going on offense. There's also upside here that the Jets may start Geno Smith who is a proven turnover machine. Easily my streaming defense for the week.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
176 Pass Attempts
Dak Prescott's interception-free pass attempt streak ended on his 177th attempt on Sunday in Green Bay. Earlier in the game, he broke the previous record of 162, which was held by Tom Brady. The streak was impressive, but the 30-16 victory on the road could be the thing that keeps Tony Romo off the field, once he's back to 100% health. Prescott has 10 TDs total this season, and had only 1 turnover going into Week 6. As long as he and Zeke keep winning, I don't see why you change things.
16-2
Andy Reid's teams are now 16-2 when coming off of a bye week. This is a remarkable stat, and one that leaves me regretful that I didn't change my picks after being reminded of it on Sunday morning. The Chiefs thoroughly dominated the Raiders, particularly in the 2nd half when they gave up zero points. The return of Jamaal Charles was marked by an early touchdown, but then gave way again to Spencer Ware. Ware is averaging 129 yards from scrimmage per game and was given 24 carries in the game where Charles was supposed to have the training wheels taken off. It'll be interesting to see what happens going forward.
200+ Yards
Up until Week 6, only guys named Jones were putting up games over 200 yards. This week, we add two more to that list. Jay Ajayi and Odell Beckham Jr. both went over 200 yards, putting up over 30 points each while helping their teams to big wins. Ajayi is a surprise, but a welcome one - it's nice to see some fantasy life in Miami after all. Look for him to be the hottest waiver pickup this week. Odell, on the other hand, is having fun again. Hopefully things stay fun for him, and the future Mrs. Kicking Net Beckham.
130+ Rush Yards
Ezekiel Elliott has 130+ yards in 4 straight weeks, the first rookie to ever reach that mark. Elliott is living up to the high expectations he had in Dallas, behind a very strong offensive line and fellow rookie Dak Prescott (see above). Elliott leads the league in rushing yards with 703, a wide margin over second place. At 5.13 yards per carry, he's incredibly efficient. He's got the second-most fantasy points in standard leagues - it's nice to see something live up to the hype.
61 Games
Including playoffs, the Colts went 61 straight games between having a 100-yard rusher. On Sunday night in Houston, Frank Gore broke that streak...then lost his 100 yards. Then, the Colts gave up the lead, assuring that the game would go to OT and give Gore a chance to go back over 100 yards. A seven-yard run took care of this, but the Colts punted on that drive and the Texans kicked a field goal to steal the game from the Colts, who had led since the first quarter. This morning, I suspect that Chuck Pagano will find himself on the hot seat.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
As I sit here on a Friday night sipping on a delicious Karl Strauss Aurora hoppyalis, celebrating a winning Chargers wager from the previous night, I find it hard to pick a winner this week. Last week was pretty safe. Everyone pretty much went with either Pittsburgh or New England both who coasted to easy wins in games that were never in doubt. I like both of those teams this week also, especially the Steelers vs the Dolphins. Cincinnati needs to show up big time for this Patriots game if they want to be considered one of the big boys, so this could be an interesting game.
Buffalo would have been the pick if Blaine Gabbert was still the starter. But this move to Kaepernick is intriguing. It seems like he is well liked among teammates and maybe he inspires everyone to play better. If Chip Kelly uses Kaep as a runner, I could see him causing some real problems for teams and remind everyone how happy they were to have him replace Alex Smith years ago.
The Tennessee Titans, however, are this week's pick. It falls in line with the 100% successful strategy of picking against the Cleveland Browns. Now I'm not thrilled with the way the Titans have been playing this season but a battered Browns team will not have what it takes to get their first win of the season on the road, soo I see this as a rare chance to use the Titans confidently. I'd probably stay away from the 7.5 points for the Titans though. Their passing game has not been one that I could comfortably count on to win a game by more than a touchdown.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's been a brutal season thus far for injuries, so hopefully your team is surviving alright through 5 weeks. Now that we're a handful of weeks in, things are starting to get clearer with this year's rookie crop...unfortunately not many of them among high picks have been able to carve out a big role, so the list of plug-and-play rookie starters is a short one, but there is still plenty to sift through. Let's take a look at what to expect in week 6...
Rookies to Start:
RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Howard has been phenomenal over the past two weeks, and it's safe to say at this point he's ahead of Jeremy Langford even when he returns from injury. Jordan should be a strong play again this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars haven't given up a ton of RB points, but they rank just 29th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, and have allowed over 4 yards per carry to each starting RB they've faced. The Bears' offense has shown some life and balance with Hoyer and Howard leading the way. I like Howard's chances to get 20 carries in this one, and I expect him to find 80+ yards and a great chance at a TD. He's played like an RB1 the past 2 weeks, and he should be a safe RB2 this week with upside for more again.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 6: @GB): Despite a brutal matchup this week, Zeke is a locked-in every-week starter at this point. I would probably fade him in DFS, but I wouldn't be able to sit him in season-long leagues. The Packers have allowed under 50 rushing yards to opposing RBs in each of their 4 games, rank 2nd in run defense DVOA, and allow the fewest RB fantasy points in the league. With that said, Zeke has been steamrolling teams lately and will get enough volume to be a passable RB2 even if the Packers are able to slow him down.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 6: @GB): Dak has been eerily consistent so far. He’s put up exactly 17 points (ESPN standard scoring) in 3 of his past 4 games, and 22 in the other. He should be in that ballpark again vs. a Packers’ secondary that is still trying to get healthy. The Packers rank 19th in pass defense DVOA, and they allow opposing QBs an average of…17 points per game. Look for Dak to be a mid-range QB2.
QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 6: @Was.): Last week, Baltimore fell to Washington mainly because they got away from running the football despite having a ton of success when they did run. I don’t expect the Eagles to make the same mistake this week, so you should see a bunch of Ryan Mathews in this one. Washington ranks a middle-of-the-pack 16th in pass defense DVOA, but dead last in that metric for their run defense. They’ve also allowed just 3 passing TDs in their past 4 contests. Wentz is a borderline option in 2 QB leagues this week.
WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): We saw the ‘bust’ side of the boom-or-bust proposition that is Fuller last week, but the matchup gets much lighter this week. Indy ranks just 30th in pass defense DVOA, and I would expect their top cover corner Vontae Davis to be assigned to cover Hopkins for most of this one. Davis has allowed 12 catches for 118 yards and zero TDs on 20 targets in the three games he’s played in, or 4-39-0 on 6.3 targets per week. The Texans’ offense has been ugly the past few weeks, so there is some downside here, but with the Colts giving up 307 passing yards per game…they have to go to someone. I expect this week to be more of a boom than a bust. Fuller is an upside WR3 this week.
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): I wouldn’t blame you if you can’t bring yourself to start Shep this week. He’s had a rough couple of games and the Giants’ offense just seems broken. The Ravens have struggled more with perimeter receivers than slot guys like Shepard, but they have given up 9 WR touchdowns in the past 4 games. For TD upside alone Shepard is back on the WR3 radar this week. I still trust his talent, and it’s just a matter of time until this offense gets on track.
WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): Drew Brees at home is always a good situation for New Orleans pass catchers, and the Panthers have showed some vulnerability over the past couple weeks. They are still a tough defense, and are tied for the 10th-fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs despite giving up 52(!) to the Falcons. I would still rather start Cooks or Willie Snead this week, but Thomas is definitely in play as a WR3 or Flex option. Over his past 7 home games, Brees has thrown 26 touchdown passes with at least 3 in each game.
TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): Antonio Gates should be getting healthier, and the matchup isn’t ideal with Denver allowing zero TE scores thus far, but you could do worse than Henry this week. I would expect him to still play about as many snaps as Gates if not more, and with the Broncos’ corners being so good against WRs, TE has been a good place to attack their defense. Denver hasn’t exactly faced any top end TEs after week 1, but they did allow lines of 7-73 to Greg Olsen and 5-67 to Cameron Brate this season. Henry is only in play as a low-end streamer, but unlike most TE streamers he should provide at least a handful of points even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Wk. 6: @SD): It's unlikely that Lynch starts again this week, but if Siemian isn't able to make the start, Lynch is a consideration as a QB2 streamer for 2-QB leagues. He wasn't impressive in his first start, but he had looked good the week before after Siemian was hurt. There is a decent floor in this matchup, with the Chargers allowing 300+ passing yards in 4 of their first 5 games, and 2 passing TDs in 4 of them as well, but counting on a rookie in his second career start to hit those numbers is a risky proposition.
QB Cody Kessler, CLE (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Don’t get cute here in 2 QB leagues. It’s likely that Kessler gets the start this week and has handled himself fairly well, but the Titans’ defense has been better than you probably think it has. They’ve allowed the 4th-fewest points per game to opposing QBs, and rank 8th in pass defense DVOA. This is not a great spot to take a chance on Kessler, even if you’re desperate in a 2 QB league.
RBs Jalen Richard & DeAndre Washington, OAK (Wk. 6: vs. KC): With Latavius Murray due back this week, the running back split will be too unpredictable to feel comfortable starting any Raiders' back if he actually plays. As of Wednesday, Murray still isn’t practicing, so both Richard and Washington would be bumped up to the Borderline section if Latavius indeed sits again. They would both be on the Flex radar. It’s a juicy matchup, with the Chiefs allowing the 6th-most RB fantasy points, and allowing at least 95 RB rush yards in each game. Richard was more productive than Washington last week, but both men had the exact same number of touches. I would expect a similar split this week if Latavius is a no-go. I still have no feel for which will be better on a weekly basis, so proceed with caution here.
RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): Head coach Jay Gruden mentioned that he thinks Kelley has earned more carries, but there’s no telling how many more that means. He had just 3 carries last week, and just 8 on the season for a paltry 29 yards. His role may increase a bit this week, but third downs still belong to Chris Thompson and the Eagles have been stout against the run, allowing the 5th-fewest RB fantasy points per game and ranking 7th in run defense DVOA. I would need to actually see the workload increase play out on the field before I’d consider him in my lineups.
RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 6: vs. LA): There’s a chance that Washington will be able to play this week, but things aren’t started on the right foot after he missed practice Wednesday. Even if he’s able to play, this is Theo Riddick’s backfield, and the addition of Justin Forsett only clouds Washington’s outlook further. You’d be best served waiting to see how this backfield split shakes out this week. The only Lions’ back I’d feel okay playing is Riddick.
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 6: @NYG): There's no reason to fire up Dixon just yet. He's still an interesting stash, but he didn't have a great debut, splitting passing down work with Buck Allen and not making a big impact with his opportunities. He'll likely continue to work in as a receiving back, but with the Jim Trestman firing, the Ravens likely won’t target their RBs in the passing game as often. Meanwhile, the Giants are 4th in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing RBs. Take a wait-and-see approach with Dixon.
RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): Perkins is already fighting with Bobby Rainey, Orleans Darkwa, and possibly Rashad Jennings for snaps and touches, and this week the Giants face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest running back points in the league. No thanks.
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Sharpe had been seeing at least 7 targets per week in the first 4 weeks, but his efficiency with those targets hasn't been where it needs to be (11-113-0 on 25 targets over the past 4 weeks). Last week, with Tennessee playing from ahead for much of the game Sharpe saw just 4 targets. The Titans are a 7-point favorite, so I'd expect more of the same this week. If you start Sharpe, you're just hoping for a TD.
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 6: @NE): The Patriots are allowing just 26 yards per game to WRs who aren't their team's number 1 or 2 WR, and Boyd has been averaging just 15 yards and 4 targets per game over the past 3 games. He wouldn't be near my lineup.
Rookie on Bye: WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 6: @SD): Booker is still more of a high-end injury handcuff than anything, but his matchup this week makes him an intriguing flex option in deeper leagues. He’s flashed when given the opportunity, and he’s been slowly getting more opportunity. In week 5, Booker handled 10 touches to CJ Anderson’s 14. It’s unknown if he’ll continue to take that big a chunk of the work going forward, however. Booker was targeted in the passing game 6 times in week 5 after receiving just 3 targets total in the first 4 weeks. I question if any of that is a product of Paxton Lynch being the QB. At any rate, the Chargers have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing RBs and Booker is likely to see close to 10 touches again. There is upside there for a solid performance.
RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Henry is still clearly second-fiddle to DeMarco Murray, but it was nice to see him get involved again last week with 7 carries and a robust 7.7 yards per carry. The Titans are a touchdown favorite this week against a Browns team that has allowed 18+ running back points in 4 of their 5 games. There could be an opportunity for some garbage time carries for Henry, and possibly his second game with double-digit carries on the year. He’s no more than a desperation Flex for deeper leagues or a DFS tournament punt play, but the matchup could work in his favor this week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your lineup decisions. I'm quickly learning that this new injury designation setup is a nightmare, so make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report and not play an inactive player. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about stuff you think I'm way off on, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders.
Wagering tip of the week: start out your wagering week by combing the lines of your favorite sportsbook(s) looking for the bets that just seem too easy to win. A lot of times those are there to actually scare you away from putting down serious action. But in reality, you own the odds so don't be afraid. Sounds weird, but it is a trend followed. Obviously, there are going to be more lines on games which are just too close and carry more risk, but you can easily cross those off the list and drop more coin on the safer plays while dividing the rest of your weekly allowance among the mid-risk picks.
WEEK 6 PICKS:
DENVER BRONCOS 30 @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 20 - Paxton Lynch isn't as smooth or good enough at the QB position to be a starter. Period. Trevor Siemian will supposedly get the start this Thursday night in San Diego, which should make the Bronco's offense look a little more crisp. I'd safely take Denver and the spread and will reach for the over. Medium confidence pool points.
L.A. RAMS 20 @ DETROIT LIONS 26 - Consistency. Neither of these teams seem to have it. This game will feature a steady defense(L.A.) against a potent offense(Det). The Lions are definitely a better team at home and the Rams have big play ability as well as featuring star RB Todd Gurley, who shows flashes of being elite but in my opinion is too streaky to trust. Detroit will put up enough in the end to pull off the victory in this historic snooze fest. I would easily go for the Lions and the low spread and am shying away from the over/under. If you do want to put action on it, go for the over. Low pool points.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 17 @ CHICAGO BEARS 27 - Can you believe it? The Bears will win their 2nd game of the season! Hoyer is the new sheriff in town and Chicago has a stable of capable receivers in Jeffery, Royal and now the up and coming Cameron Meredith to serve as ammo for their fresh gunslinger. Add rookie RB phenom Jordan Howard, and the Bears biggest weakness obviously becomes their defense, who are still capable at playing big-boy football, although not able to seal the deal with regularity. Jacksonville are too hot and cold for me to think they're a 'for sure' win, so cautiously take the Bears and the spread as well as the over. Low confidence on this match up.
CAROLINA PANTHERS 20 @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 36 - Fresh off their bye week, the Saints will be ready to roll at home against the discombobulated Panthers, who still are uncertain if Cam Newton will be ready to go due to his recent concussion. Carolina's defensive struggles have continued and they certainly don't have the dominance of last year's squad. New Orleans has an atrocious defense themselves, so this game will be decided strictly by the offensive. Brees has numerous weapons to match his skills, so expect a high scoring contest making the over a no-brainer. Grab the Saints and the points while going low confidence points.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 24 @ BUFFALO BILLS 27 - Kaepernick returns this weekend for the Niners, but will the switch in QBs make the team better or worse? Personally, with the running game of Victor Cruz and the receiving play of Jeremy Kerley, Blaine Gabbert has been okay in my opinion, especially compared to some guys who get paid a lot more than him. Their defense is starting to gel some, so how about letting the offense do the same? I think tinkering now is just a bad idea, especially if the QB you want to put in won't be a part of the plan next year. Buffalo is a Jekyll & Hyde team but have been a little more solid as of late. I would stay away from the spread and over/under on this game... they're money traps. Definitely low pool points.
CLEVELAND BROWNS 16 @ TENNESSEE TITANS 27 - Let's see. The Browns have a good running game but also employ a weekly QB carousel. The Titans also have a good running game with a passing attack that seems to be getting stronger. The Titans have the edge when it comes to defense and have home field advantage. This game is an easy pick. Take the Titans and the spread and jump on the over. Medium to high on the confidence points.
BALTIMORE RAVENS 24 @ NEW YORK GIANTS 20 - Another game that is pretty simple to figure out. The Ravens have a better running game(not much) and a way better defense. Eli Manning and the Giants' passing game should be better- but it's not, while Joe Flacco seems to be getting it done through the air. I would take Baltimore and the points while staying away from the over/under. Very low pool points.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 27 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 20 - It looks like the Redskins might be without one of their biggest play makers in TE Jordan Reed(concussion) this week, which will definitely limit their diversity on offense. The Eagles have a good defense and the favorable play of QB Carson Wentz has been remained steady. Grab Philly and the spread and go with the over. Medium pool points.
CINCINNATI BENGALS 17 @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 34 - There is not a lot to say here other than Tom Brady is at home and has a lot of weapons at his disposal. Cincinnati is way too inconsistent and can't be taken seriously to win this game. Easily go with the Pats and the spread while safely taking the over. High pool points.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 37 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS 17 - The Steelers offense will be way too much for the shoddy defense of Miami to handle. The Steelers defense will be way too much for the Miami offense to handle. You get the picture... it's going to be a massacre. Definitely take Pittsburgh and the spread as well as the over. High confidence points.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 28 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 20 - Kansas City should have enough firepower and defense to get past division rival Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have big play ability and can put up points, but the defense is way too generous and one of the worst in the league. I would take K.C. and the points while going with the over. Medium confidence points.
DALLAS COWBOYS 23 @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 30 - Dallas is looking very good but it's still hard to win against the Packers, let alone at Lambeau. This one will be a little closer due to the availability of Eddie Lacy(ankle) and Green Bay's ability to run the ball. I would take the Packers and the spread and definitely take the over. Medium confidence points.
ATLANTA FALCONS 23 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 24 - I believe this will be one of the closest games of the week. To tell you the truth, I'm not putting any action on it. However, if I was, I'd take Atlanta and the points and go with the over. Very low confidence points.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 20 @ HOUSTON TEXANS 27 - This is the week Houston rebounds and gets a win. Even though it will seem like a tough division match up, I have no doubt in their abilities against a flimsy Colts' D. The Texans' offense will look a lot better than it has, complimenting the play of their worthy defense. Go with Houston and the spread while taking the over. Medium pool points.
NEW YORK JETS 23 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS 24 - This game will be another contest that will be very close. Both teams have stout defenses but both offenses can be streaky. I really like Larry Fitzgerald and RB David Johnson, so I think the Cardinals might have a little too much firepower for the Jets to handle. I would take the Jets with all the points given them and go with the over. Low confidence points.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
We picked things up nicely last week with most of the top line picks coming in correct. Sure, there were a fair share of wrong picks, but they were on lower lines, so they don’t matter.
We’re here for the points. Now let’s go get some more!
Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
15 – NEW ENGLAND over Cincinnati – Pretty safe to say that we will probably see the Patriots this high for most of the remaining games this season.
14 – BUFFALO over San Francisco – Are the Bills legit? We may not be able to tell just how legit yet, but a game against a Kap-run 49ers team will at least get them another win.
13 – Pittsburgh over MIAMI – I feel like some sort of a “storm heading to Miami” metaphor may be a little too soon … but, well, that.
12 – DETROIT over Los Angeles – After their home embarrassment last week, it looks like the Rams are on their way back to the Jeff Fischer 8-8 special.
11 – OAKLAND over Kansas City – The Raiders are 4-1 with only a +5 point differential. What does this mean? They know how to win games!
10 – SEATTLE over Atlanta – It’s not week 6 and I’m still waiting for my first correct pick for the Falcons – again, take this one for what it’s worth!
9 – GREEN BAY over Dallas – On the flip side, I am yet to miss on a Packers game. Again, take this for what it’s worth!
8 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Baltimore – Is O’Dell Beckham back? Doesn’t matter, the Ravens aren’t as good as their winning record suggests anyway.
7 – TENNESSEE over Cleveland – The two worst teams from a year ago collide in this…um…game I guess you could still call it. A game that is in Nashville so they win.
6 – HOUSTON over Indianapolis – A game of two division powerhouses has turned into a game of two division question marks. Even with the loss of the best defensive player in the game, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is THE HOUSTON TEXANS WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH.
5 – Denver over SAN DIEGO – Denver showed signs of mortality this week. But since there will be a fourth quarter played in this game, the Chargers will lose.
4 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – Carson Wentz got his first taste of NFL defeat last week. It will be hard to get that taste out of his mouth in this divisional road game.
3 – Carolina over NEW ORLEANS – The…the Panthers did go to the Super Bowl last year, right?
2 – ARIZONA over New York Jets – Equally as confusing, why are the Cardinals this low for a home game?
1 – CHICAGO over Jacksonville – Who knew that Brian Hoyer would be one of the most significant free agent signings this past off-season.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Week 6 is here and it's time to get your lineups set. This week, we'll be missing Vikings and Buccaneers - ooo, a themed bye week. Keep an eye on injury reports later in the week for the possible return of several players to the lineup, including Arian Foster, Jonathan Williams, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer and more! For more advice, check out Troy's recommended starters for Week 6.
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- Written by Troy Maples
Week 6 will kick off with a west coast matchup between the Broncos and Chargers. Philip Rivers is going to have a rough day against Denver’s third-ranked pass defense. Flip offenses and Trevor Siemian is expected to return against a San Diego defense giving up almost 300 pass yards per game this season. Thursday night football can be weird and frustrating with a short week of preparation. So we are all here to help you make those roster moves that could save your week. Here are this weeks recommended starts amongst the trending and borderline players. Feel free to reach out with specific start sit advice!
Quarterbacks:
Brian Hoyer vs. Jac: It’s no secret that Jay Cutler’s career in Chicago is coming to a close. The Bears continue to be vague with their quarterback decisions and why shouldn’t they be. Brian Hoyer is playing well enough to keep the job and now reports from CBS Sports’ Brian La Canfora state that Cutler has “fallen out of favor” with Bears coaches. All rumors and guesses aside, Brian Hoyer looks to start at least one more week. The Jaguars matchup doesn’t lend itself to anything especially positive or negative. Brian Hoyer’s 300+ pass yards and 2 touchdown average per game over that last 3 weeks is a trend to ride in week 6.
Dak Prescott @ GB: Sure, he has yet to throw for over 300 yards, but he also had yet to throw an interception. Dak Prescott has led the Cowboys to a 4-1 start but will face his toughest test in week 6. Ezekiel Elliot is also going to face a tough test against the top rated Green Bay run defense and Dak will be called upon to do more than he has all season. I like that this one could turn into a shootout and that is always a good thing for fantasy owners. I even have a bold prediction that Dak will outscore Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck in week 6.
Wide Receivers
Cole Beasley @ GB: I made a bold claim just above that includes Dak Prescott beating out some pretty big names in fantasy heading into a matchup against Green Bay. That only happens if his supporting cast helps. Cole Beasley has been a reliable target for Dak in Dez Bryant’s absence. Reports, for now, seem to lean towards Dez missing the week 6 match up and if that is the case I think you roll with Cole in a favorable matchup. Again, this game is setting up to be won through the air for Dallas.
Willie Snead vs. CAR: A divisional matchup with the Saints coming off a bye week and Carolina reeling from a disappointing loss to Tampa Bay. One way or the other Willie Snead should be back to 100% after a toe injury. The Saints spread the ball around more than frat boys passing the discount vodka, but Willie was one of Drew Brees’ early favorites. Look for that to be renewed in a game setting up to be big for the Saints.
Running Backs
Frank Gore @ HOU: I don’t know what the coaching staff in Indianapolis is doing, as they seem to completely change schemes every week. That being said, Frank Gore put up a solid performance last week. The only thing holding him back from a better fantasy day was his lack of involvement in the passing game; something he saw a lot more of the previous week in London. The matchup with Houston should force the Colts to utilize Gore more in week 6. I also fully expect him to be moderately involved in the passing game, at least more than we saw in week 5.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry vs DEN: There is plenty to be wary about with Hunter Henry in week 6. The matchup, Thursday Night Football and the return of Antonio Gates are some pretty scary factors for Henry owners heading into week 6. Honestly, I like him for all the same reasons. First of all, the matchup with the Denver defense means Philip Rivers and the Chargers will have to utilize mismatches to move the ball through the air. While Antonio Gates will eat away at some of those targets and yards, he is also the perfect decoy in two tight end sets. I mean which one do you cover!? The kid has put up some big numbers and that wasn’t affected by Gates’ return. He just found more room to run on fewer targets.
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- Written by David Biggs
Quarterbacks
Andrew Luck (IND, QB)
Week 3 vs. SD – 24/37, 331yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 14.24pts
Week 4 @JAX – 27/42, 234yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 18.66pts
Week 5 vs. CHI – 28/39, 322yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 22.18pts
After a huge fantasy performance in week 1 against the Detroit Lions where he put up 35.5 points, Luck and the Colts offense in general has been having issues, starting with the offensive line play which has Luck currently on track for 60+ sacks this season. Still, there’s something to be said for playing from behind and Luck is always capable of a good performance. How will he fare this week in Houston – can he put up at least 18 points to stay afloat as a weekly starter?
Kirk Cousins (WAS, QB)
Week 3 @NYG – 21/35, 296yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 19.34pts
Week 4 vs. CLE – 21/27, 183yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 18.32pts
Week 5 @BAL – 29/41, 260yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 13.30pts
Cousins was ranked pretty highly overall by most experts this preseason, but his recent performance has most of us sliding him to the bench in favor of other upside QBs. Week 6 does not bring Cousins any favors, statistically, as he’ll be going up against the Eagles’ #2 ranked passing defense, allowing only 194yds per game on average and only 3 total passing touchdowns so far this season. Can Cousins buck the trend, scoring at least 17 points in a standard scoring league?
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, RB)
Week 3 vs. CHI - 30/140yds, 0 TD, 2rec, 20yds, 0 TD, 16.00pts
Week 4 @SF – 23/138yds, 1 TD, 1rec, 19yds, 0 TD, 21.70pts
Week 5 vs. CIN – 15/134yds, 2 TD, 3rec, 37yds, 0 TD, 29.10pts
Elliott has actually been trending up from his very first NFL game this year. Each week he has performed better than the last. It doesn’t look like he’ll be very involved in the passing game at all (for now, at least), but that doesn’t really impact his fantasy value. The Cowboys are full-speed ahead now, even with a rookie under center. Is it possible for Elliott to keep it going and bring owners at least 22 points on his first trip to Lambeau field to face the Packers?
Duke Johnson Jr. (CLE, RB)
Week 3 @MIA – 10/69yds, 0 TD, 5rec, 12yds, 0 TD, 8.10pts
Week 4 @WAS – 8/45yds, 0 TD, 6rec, 31yds, 0 TD, 5.60pts
Week 5 vs. NE – 4/1yd, 0 TD, 2rec, 21yds, 0 TD, 2.20pts
The Browns are a disaster this year, and although Johnson was drafted as the more valuable running back before the season started, Isaiah Crowell has taken the mantle thus far. Although one could argue that Johnson has some PPR value, he has not shown up as a productive fantasy player so far this year in standard leagues. Will he continue to fall off of benches everywhere? Will Johnson score less than 5.3 points this week against the Titans?
Wide Receivers
Cameron Meredith (CHI, WR)
Week 3 @DAL – 2/3, 24yds, 0 TD, 0.40pts
Week 4 vs. DET – 4/5, 28yds, 0 TD, 2.80pts
Week 5 @IND – 9/12, 130yds, 1 TD, 17.60pts
Welcome to the NFL, Cameron. Sorry you’re on the Bears! Regardless of his situation, though, it looks like Hoyer and Meredith are enjoying some great chemistry and – due to Cutler’s fall from grace and White’s serious injury – both will probably be starting for the foreseeable future. The real question here is if Meredith can keep up the production on a high level in the weeks to come. Let’s put the number at 8 points or more to continue this trend. Yay, or nay?
Victor Cruz (NYG, WR)
Week 3 vs. WAS – 3/3, 70yds, 0TD, 7.00pts
Week 4 @MIN – 5/9, 50yds, 5.00pts
Week 5 @GB – 0/2, 0yds, 0.00pts
Over the last 4 games, Cruz has had at least 50 yards or a touchdown. At the beginning of the season things looked super promising for a resurgence to Cruz’s career and for the Giants’ offense in general – but things aren’t looking quite so bright now. Will the Giants regain control of their offensive play and utilize Cruz in week 6 in Baltimore? Will Cruz score less than 4 points, continuing the downward trend?
Tight Ends
Martellus Bennett (NE, TE)
Week 3 vs. HOU – 2/3, 10yds, 0 TD, 1.60pts
Week 4 vs. BUF – 5/6, 109yds, 0 TD, 10.90pts
Week 5 @CLE – 6/8, 67yds, 3 TD, 24.70pts
Bennett’s first outing with Tom Brady as quarterback was fruitful, to say the least. Even though Gronkowski was back in action and looking healthier than he has so far this season, Bennett was the primary red zone target for most of the game, scoring 3 touchdowns against the hapless Cleveland Browns. In order to keep up this trend, Bennett will need to put up 12 or more points in a standard scoring league. Can he pull it off?