Fantasy Football / NFL

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Written by Tad Bukowski

Created: 30 November 2016

• nfl
• Confidence
• Confidence Pool
• Confidence Picks

If you know me, you know that I’m a big Raiders fan. Thinking about it in terms of a confidence pool, this Raiders team has to be the worst team for a confidence pool!

Yes the Raiders are very unexpectedly 9-2 and towards the top of most power rankings out there. But they haven’t had too many wins that make you that confident about them in the next game.

It’s an anomaly for sure. But hey, like the old man said, JUST WIN BABY!

Week 13 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

15 – NEW ENGLAND over Los Angeles – Welcome to the NFL Jared Goff! Now go play the Patriots.

14 – Dallas over MINNESOTA – If the Cowboys are going to lose on the road, it won’t be against a depleted Viking team.

13 – OAKLAND over Buffalo – If you have a legitimate argument as to why Derek Carr is NOT the MVP this season I would love to hear it.

12 – GREEN BAY over Houston – The Pack is back! My BOLD PREDICTION is that THE PACKERS WILL COME BACK AND WIN THE NFC NORTH.

11 – NEW ORLEANS over Detroit – Detroit has had a better than expected year but I don’t see them outscoring the Saints offense.

10 – SEATTLE over Carolina – After the embarrassment of only putting up 5 points in Tampa last week, Seattle will have something to prove.

9 – PITTSBURGH over New York Giants – The Steelers will need this playoff level win to get them ready for a playoff push.

8 – ARIZONA over Washington – I honestly don’t know why the Redskins are a winning team.

7 – Denver over JACKSONVILLE – In the off-season, this was supposed to be a good game. Then the Jags happened.

6 – Indianapolis over NEW YORK JETS – If Andrew Luck doesn’t play in this one, put the Jets on a very low number line.

5 – CINCINNATI over Philadelphia – Andy Dalton meets his will be unsuccessful ginger understudy.

4 – BALTIMORE over Miami – Surprisingly this is a big game in the AFC playoff picture. The home team gets the nod on this one.

3 – ATLANTA over Kansas City – We all know my track record on Falcons games.

2 – Tampa Bay over SAN DIEGO – After dominating Seattle last week, Tampa looks determined to sneak into the playoffs.

1 – San Francisco over CHICAGO – Fear not, Bears fans. A loss hear clears the way to the second pick in the draft!

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Written by Shawn Foss

Created: 30 November 2016

• fantasy football
• rookie report,
• nfl
• week 13
• ezekiel elliott
• michael thomas

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The long slog through the regular season is finally almost over. For most fantasy leagues, week 13 is the finale. You should know where you stand in your playoff pecking order. If your playoff spot or a bye week is on the line, there is some extra weight on the lineup decisions you make this week. Do you play it safe, or swing for the fences with a boom-or-bust option? At the end of the day, you have to make the final call on that, but I can at least offer a little help figuring out what to do with your rookies. A lot of rookies have been playing larger roles as the season has gone on, and it's likely that a rookie will play a part in determining the outcome of your week 13 matchup. Let's dive in and talk about what to expect this week...

Rookies to Start:

RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 13: @Min.): Zeke is just too good to sit regardless of matchup, and this matchup isn't all that daunting. The Vikings have allowed 95+ rushing yards to opposing backs in 5 of their past 6 games, allowing 4.7 yards per carry to RBs over that stretch. They also rank a middling 16th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency. Elliott remains a locked-in RB1 this week.

RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Howard demonstrated last weekend that he's still able to produce despite having Matt Barkley under center. The 49ers appeared to show improvement vs. the run on Sunday as they were able to slow down Jay Ajayi a bit, but they've still allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs and rank 30th in run defense DVOA. Howard has RB1 upside this week.

WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Thomas got back on track in a big way in week 12 with over 100 yards and 2 scores, and the Saints are at home again this week. The Lions secondary is hardly a group to be afraid of, and no defense has been able to slow down Brees and company in Nola. The squeaky wheel should get the grease this week, so Brandin Cooks is likely to see some extra targets after his goose egg last weekend, but Thomas is a safe WR3. He's shown a very respectable floor with at least 4 catches and 40 yards in all 11 games this season, and he leads the team in targets, catches, receiving yards and TD grabs.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 13: @Pit.): As I just mentioned above, the squeaky wheel gets the grease. Shep wasn't targeted once last weekend after seeing at least 6 targets in each of the previous 9 games. Eli Manning apologized to Shepard this week, and I'd expect an overcorrection this weekend. The Steelers are nothing to sneeze at as a defense, allowing the 4th-fewest WR points per game on the year. Still, I expect Shep to see at least 8 targets this week and see him as a solid WR3, especially in PPR formats.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 13: @Min.): Prescott has been rock solid all year, but this week should be a real test. The Vikings rank 4th in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed fewer than 17 fantasy points to the opposing QB in all but one game (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). Dak, meanwhile, has scored at least 17 in 10 straight games. There is a chance for a decent day since Minnesota has allowed 2 passing TDs 3 times in the past 4 games, but I think this is the first time since week 1 that Prescott comes up short of the 17-point threshold. He's a borderline QB1 in 12-team leagues.

RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 13: @Jax.): I'd lean toward starting Booker this week, but his recent track record has been less than stellar. He has seen 24 carries in each of the past 2 games, the Jaguars rank 23rd in run defense DVOA, and Denver is a 5-point road favorite. The matchup and game script should work in Booker's favor, which gives him a great chance to finish as at least a low-end RB2.

RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Mia.): Dixon continues to see his share of the snaps and touches rise each week, and he's scored 7 fantasy points in 2 of the past 3 games. Miami ranks 19th in run defense DVOA and has allowed between 10 and 20 fantasy points to opposing RBs each week. Terrance West is more likely to get the goal line opportunities, but Dixon should get enough volume to finish right around where he did last week. He's a flex option with a decent floor, but a low ceiling.

RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Smallwood wound up being a huge let down last week with Ryan Mathews out, but it wasn't entirely his fault. The Packers dominated time of possession, and the Eagles didn't have a single offensive snap when they were tied or leading. Smallwood and Sproles combined for just 12 carries with the negative game script (9 for Smallwood). The Bengals without AJ Green and Gio Bernard are much less likely to be playing from ahead, and Cincy allows the 12th-most RB points per game. Mathews should be out again, so I would expect Smallwood to lead the backfield in touches and to have more success than he did last week.

WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Hill put on a show on Sunday night, doing something not seen since Gale Sayers (rushing, receiving, and punt return TD all in one game). He's still a touchdown-dependent player in standard leagues since he averages under 10 yards per catch and is used extensively in the short passing game. Luckily for Hill, the Falcons rank 26th in pass defense DVOA on short throws, and he should see plenty of targets once again with Maclin's status still up in the air. He's a solid WR3 in PPR leagues, and closer to the WR3/4 borderline in standard formats.

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Boyd has shown a safe PPR floor over the past two weeks with AJ Green and Gio Bernard being out, as he was targeted 8 & 9 times in weeks 11 & 12. The offense as a whole is less effective without AJ and Gio, so there isn't as much TD upside for Boyd, but he's still an intriguing WR3 option in PPR and standard leagues. The Eagles rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA, but their worst 4 games of the season in terms of WR points allowed have all been in the past 5 games.

WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 13: @GB): Well, it looks like Fuller is finally recovered from the leg injury that has plagued him as he put up a 4-60 line last week and is slated to return punts in place of the injured Tyler Ervin this week. The Packers' secondary had been getting shredded weekly before looking better on Monday night. I'm not convinced that their struggles are behind them...they've allowed the 3rd-most WR fantasy points per game. Fuller is back to being an upside WR3 option this week. He's still a bit of a boom-or-bust play, but the possibility of a boom is back.

TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 13: vs. TB): Henry played more snaps that Antonio Gates in week 12, and this week he faces a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed over 65 receiving yards to opposing TEs in 4 of the past 5 games. Henry is always a TD threat, and the yardage upside this week makes him a passable streamer in 12-team leagues if you're missing Gronk or Delanie.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Wentz has been pretty consistently bad over the past 7 games, and the Bengals have allowed just 12 points per game to the opposing QBs in their 3 games since the bye. Wentz is just the QB23 on the year, and the Bengals are hardly an enticing matchup. Carson is a low-end QB2 at best this week.

QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 13: @NE): Goff has some upside this week against a Patriots defense that ranks just 28th in pass defense DVOA, but he's best left on the pine in most leagues. He's played just one good half of football in his first 2 starts, and Bill Belichick will be licking his chops to game plan for the rookie. I don't like his chances of making good on his upside.

RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 13: @Ari.): Kelley proved on Thanksgiving that he isn't going to overcome bad matchups unless he scores touchdowns, and he has another bad matchup this week. The Cardinals haven't been great against running backs overall this year, but they have been shutting them down at home. No opposing team's RBs have tallied more than 7 fantasy points in Arizona since the Patriots in week 1. You can do better than Kelley this week.

RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Perkins has seen an increase in playing time over the past few weeks, but he's still totaled just 12 fantasy points in the past 4 games. The Steelers have allowed 7 fantasy points or fewer to the opposing RBs in 3 of their 4 games since the bye with the exception being the week they got shredded by Ezekiel Elliott. If the Giants get anything going with their backs this week, it'll likely be from Rashad Jennings.

RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 13: @NO): There is some touchdown upside for Dwayne this week against the Saints, but the Lions have proven there is no matchup too soft for the Lions' run game to fail against. The Saints are actually playing improved defense of late, allowing 10 fantasy points or fewer to opposing RBs in each of the past 3 games. Washington is no more than a TD dart throw.

WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): The re-emergence of Quincy Enunwa last weekend limited Robby to just 2 targets against New England. There's no way to know if that number will go back up this week. You can't trust Anderson this week despite a plus matchup with the Colts.

TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. KC): The Chiefs aren't quite as brutal a TE matchup as the Cardinals were for Hooper last week, but they're pretty close. KC has allowed just 2 TE scores, and have only allowed 60+ yards to the opposing tight ends 3 times. They've only allowed 60 yards AND a touchdown once. There are better streaming options available.

Rookies on Bye: QB Cody Kessler, CLE, RB Derrick Henry, TEN, WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN, WR Corey Coleman, CLE, WR Ricardo Louis, CLE, TE Seth DeValve, CLE

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Richard has finally emerged as the clear RB2 in Oakland as DeAndre Washington was a healthy scratch against the Panthers, and the Buffalo Bills rank just 25th in run defense DVOA. It seems as though Latavius Murray has established himself as the workhorse for Oakland again, but Richard has averaged 7.5 touches per game over the past 4 games. While that type of volume doesn't lend itself to fantasy starter status, Richard has shown the big-play ability to be an interesting DFS tournament punt play. He's also a guy you should consider stashing as a handcuff if you own Murray.

WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 13: vs. LA): People might be expecting Mitchell to come back to earth a bit this week after scoring 3 TDs in the past two games with Chris Hogan and then Rob Gronkowski out. I think he extends the success another week. While it sounds like Gronk has a good shot of playing this week, I think it will be at far less than 100 percent and mostly as a decoy, and it's clear that Mitchell has earned Tom Brady's trust. Mitchell seems a natural fit for the role the Brandon LaFell played the last two years, and LaFell left a ton of big plays on the field last year because of drops. Mitchell isn't doing that so far. It helps Mitchell's outlook that the Rams have really struggled to defend WRs away from home, allowing 30+ fantasy points to the position in 4 of their 6 road games. I'm in on Mitchell this week as a boom-or-bust WR3.

WR Leonte Carroo, MIA (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Carroo's outlook really depends on the status of DeVante Parker this week. Parker left with a back injury on Sunday, and Carroo scored a touchdown on his only target as the fill-in. If Parker is out this week, I'd expect Carroo to assume his role in the offense, and that role has been bigger of late. DeVante has led the Dolphins in targets over the past 3 weeks, and averaged 82 receiving yards per game in that span. If he sits, Carroo becomes a really intriguing cheap option for DFS tournaments and a streaming possibility for the deepest of leagues.

WR Daniel Braverman, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. SF): I only list Braverman here as a gut call for DFS tournaments, or as a stash in deep PPR leagues. The Bears are desperate to find anyone who can catch the ball after suffering through a miserable 10 drops last Sunday, including 2 on the final series that each could have led to a Bears' win. Braverman caught 108 balls at Western Michigan last season, and showed sure hands in the preseason when given opportunities. He could play a prominent role as a slot receiver immediately, and Matt Barkley showed last weekend that he can actually throw it a bit. The weather conditions will be sloppy in Chicago (about 40 degrees and rainy), so the short passing game will be key, and that's an area where Braverman excels. I like his chances of recording 5+ catches.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your all-important lineup decisions and helps you extend your season into the playoffs. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week to make sure you don't start anyone who's out or winds up benched because the starter is back. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

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Written by David Biggs

Created: 29 November 2016

• fantasy football
• nfl
• aaron rodgers
• week 13
• around the nfl
• news
• updates

Each week, there are hundreds if not thousands of news articles, opinion pieces, injury reports, and more written about the NFL. It's my hope to try and sort out some of these and bring to the top the most relevant and interesting headlines that you can use to set your weekly fantasy lineup with confidence. Want to send me questions/comments/suggestions? I can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

- Colin Kaepernick had a regular season fantasy high with 32 points in Week 12. That's Kaepernick, with a 'K'. Hard to believe after the guy was not even going to be a starter this year, but this is how it goes. Looks like Kaepernick will now be in the starting QB discussion from week to week. Shocker!

- Drew Brees is a fantastic QB. We all know that already, but he sits at #2 just below Aaron Rodgers and above Matt Ryan in standard scoring leagues this year. Yes, he plays better statistically at home.. but it seems like he's an every week start from here on out.

- Taylor Gabriel has been a surprise, putting up his 4th double-digit performance in as many weeks. The issue here is that they have mostly been big plays and he is still trailing in targets to other receivers on the team. Can we trust him going forward? Coin flip! Yeah, baby!

- LeSean McCoy had a dislocated thumb and there were many voices out there saying that he might not be a suggested start. Well, those voices be damned, McCoy has been a stud almost every outing and this past week was not any different. He also now has 3 matchups upcoming against teams that have not been great against the run this season (Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland).

- Brandin Cooks should have had points this past week. Right? Not in this reality.. while 9 other individual Saints players scored at least 5 points each.. Cooks had 0. Should we be worried about Cooks? I don't think so - the Rams had gameplanned to take away Cooks and they did.. but they also forgot to play football.

- Julio Jones was held to just 3 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues (for the 4th time this season, actually). Can this be attributed solely to the coverage that he received in those games, or is something else going on there?

- Rob Gronkowski was active and, in fact, looked ok for a bit - before injuring his back on an attempted diving catch. Unfortunately, he exited the game afterwards and was even seen gingerly going down a set of stairs. Ouch, Rob. Will he play next week? Fantasy owners want to know! Personally, I might wait a week even if he does start.. chest/lungs injury and back injury? Doesn't sound great for a receiver. By the way, Bennett has an ankle sprain and is not an option to start in his stead, should he not play.

- Thomas Rawls is taking over the backfield for the Seattle Seahawks.. but Seattle was just awful offensively. He should recover going forward if his track record last year is any indication.

 - Robert Griffin III has been cleared for contact.. how soon will he take over for McCown? How will this affect the Browns' offensive players for the rest of the season if he does make starts during the fantasy playoffs? Positively or negatively? A healthy Griffin should be a boost to the offense in general, if all goes right.

- Sammy Watkins is back and catching 60-yard passes. What's up! He is a much-needed component of the offense and will be producing fantasy points for owners during the playoffs. A good time for him to come back healthy? You're damn right! But is he a WR2 or a WR1 going forward? That's the question.

- Adrian Peterson is back sprinting - if he's available should you pick him up in a league? Duh!

- Jordan Matthews is a watch going forward.. if he's limited, he should not be considered a good play in this writer's opinion. 

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Written by Jason Evans

Created: 29 November 2016

• fantasy football
• ADP
• cam newton
• david johnson
• draft positions
• delanie walker

This week at drinkfive we take a look at expectations versus reality. Specifically, we will take a look at the top 10 ADP players for each position and where they sit after 12 weeks of the NFL season. We’ll also check out the guys who made it into the top 10 and weren’t drafted there. We like to check in with this every year so that you can get an idea of which way positions are trending over a larger time scale. We also like to know how volatile a position is, which can certainly influence whether or not you decide to spend a high draft pick on someone.

Quarterbacks

Starting at the top of the QB chart, we see right away that Cam Newton is only the 15^th best QB this season. He’s not so bad that you have benched him, which may be worse, considering there’s guys who sit in the top 10 that are generally free agents. Here’s our list of the guys in question:

The QB position, as a whole, is not nearly as consistent as you would assume. Only 4 of the top 10 ADP players are actually in the top 10. They don’t fall off, however, like other positions. We do see that the lowest current rank is 22, Carson Palmer, who had an ADP of 7 – not someone you were betting the house on. Cam Newton or Russell Wilson are the losers of the draft at the QB position this season, and they’re still playing and have just been mild disappointments.

As usual, going with some of the more tried and true names like Rodgers, Brees and Brady has worked out. Tom Brady may have the 22^nd most points overall, but since he missed 4 games, he is averaging the 3^rd most points on average for QB’s, which is perfectly acceptable.

The best value at the position is found in the group of players that were drafted from 12-21. In this group, 6 of them are in the top 10. Overall ADP starts at 100 for Carr, through 152 for Prescott. This means that late in the draft you had plenty of chances to grab a guy, or even take a flier, on someone who would wind up in the top 10. Even with Brady’s average numbers taken into account, it’s still almost never worth drafting a QB early – something we spout all the time. The numbers agree!

Running Backs

The RB position is going to be more risky, just by the nature of the position. Players are more likely to be injured when compared to almost any position, and they’re also more likely to be replaced for ineffective play. Running backs also have a short period of time where they are at their peak (Frank Gore not included), so carrying a performance over year to year can be sketchy. Here’s the way the RBs shake out:

As you can see, unlike the QB position, we have guys who are just gone for the season. This can be both good and bad – good because you replace them and move on with another player (possibly a handcuff), but bad because it’s a wasted early round pick. It is reassuring to see that of the players that did stay healthy, you’re only really burned by taking Todd Gurley. This year, RBs at the top have been very consistent – 5 of the 7 top drafted RBs that are still playing are in the top 10, with Lamar Miller just outside at 13.

It’s a little more difficult to nail down a sweet spot to be drafting RBs. Having a top guy is probably more important than it has been in past years, if only because they’re doing so well this season. With only a 40% failure rate (face it, Todd Gurley is a failure as a #1 pick), taking a risk on a top 10 RB was worth it this season. Only picking up guys in later rounds would not be advisable, since only 2 RBs outside of the top 20 ADP are now top 10 players.

Wide Receivers

Wide Receivers are the players that Dave and I are always going on and on about in preseason podcasts. We frequently recommend taking several at the top of the draft, if only because they tend to be less prone to injury than the other fantasy positions, and because they generally have a better chance to be consistent. Let’s see how we did this year:

While perhaps not the absolute model of consistency, 6 of the 10 WRs that were drafted in the top 10 are still in the top 10 of points. Dez Bryant was injured for many games and is currently 12^th in points per game. Really, Deandre Hopkins is the only player drafted in the top 10 that didn’t deserve to start on your team this season. This is why we stress drafting WR’s early.

If you had drafted 2 or 3 WRs to start your draft, you likely wound up with at least two guys in the top 10, and chances are they are still in the top 10. Again, we see that no players have been lost to season ending injury, though A.J. Green may be. Rounding out our top 10 point scorers are two guys that basically came out of nowhere – Adams and Pryor were so low that they went undrafted in most leagues. Michael Thomas was a semi-popular rookie flier, but he still wasn’t picked until the end of most drafts.

With these results, we will be confidently recommending drafting a bunch of WR’s high again next year. Obviously, they won’t all hit, but the chances of you having your high draft picks making a difference on your team late in the year is far higher if you load up on early round wide receivers.

Tight Ends

This is perhaps the position with the most volatility and is the hardest to predict, solely because there are only about 5 reliable tight ends in the league at any given time. There’s only a couple of guys who you wouldn’t consider replacing for a streaming option every week – Gronk, Walker, Olson, Reed, Graham and Kelce. Let’s see where they fall in our chart:

What we see is that about half of the players drafted in the top 10 actually landed there. The other half, aside from Coby Fleener, are barely worth rostering on a weekly basis (streaming options only). This is middle of the road when compared to other positions, not too great, but not bad either. All of the top 6 players drafted are in the top 11 of scoring. Gronk’s spot looks worse than it is – he got all of his points in only 5 games, so hopefully you had someone else in the other times.

Similar to other positions, TEs are not as injury prone as a RB, so taking the top of the draft class isn’t a huge risk. Overall, this has been a down year for TEs, with the high scorer topping out at only 102. We’re unlikely to have anyone reach the 180+ territory to end the season. I would wager that the average total score for the top 10 finishers this season will be far below the results of the past two years.

What can we learn from this? Well, again, the sweet spot for drafting TEs seems to only lie at the very top of their list. If you are not getting good value on someone during the draft, you will likely need to take a later round flier (again, those are all over) and pay attention to streaming options on a weekly basis.

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Written by Jason Evans

Created: 29 November 2016

• nfl
• Carson Palmer
• Frank Gore
• week 13
• fantasy football rankings
• tyrod taylor
• devante parker

The end of the fantasy football regular season is upon us. You're basically already in the playoffs and looking forward, or your playoffs start this week because if you don't win, you aren't advancing. Either way, good luck this week and make sure to check back before the first games start on Sunday to get the most up-to-date rankings.

So far this week, we really like Tyrod Taylor and Carson Palmer as a QB2, over a guy like Kirk Cousins, who has a touch matchup against the Cardinals. Frank Gore is a guy to plug in as an RB2, meanwhile Matt Forte's inconsistency has caused him to fall in our rankings, though he's probably a better option than most still. At wideout, we've been impressed with the performance of Devante Parker lately, and recommend you keep him in your lineup if there's room. On the other side, it's probably time to move on from Deandre Hopkins, that is, if you like winning.

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Written by Jim Hutchins

Created: 28 November 2016

• fantasy football
• nfl
• waiver wire pickups
• week 13
• colin kaepernick

We've reached the final week before the fantasy playoffs. If you are desperately looking for a win to make it in or if you're already in and just looking ahead to your playoff matchups or if you are eliminated and just want to play spoiler then I'm here to help you out. TWO teams on bye this week; Browns and Titans. Good Luck!

Note: all waiver picks listed here will have only been owned in 50% or less of Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick (SF) - 24% owned - Kaepernick has been on a tear lately averaging just over 25 fantasy points per game over his last four which is good for 7th best for all QBs in standard scoring during that stretch.  There shouldn't be any slowing down for him this week as he draws a depleted Bears defense.

Honorable mention: Alex Smith (KC) - 25% owned

Running Back

Kenneth Dixon (BAL) - 29% owned - It looks as though Dixon has finally surpassed Terrance West in the Ravens backfield as he out-snapped West for the first time this season.  This will most likely be a timeshare situation next week, but if Dixon plays well or if West falters then we should see Dixon take a larger role going forward.

Bilal Powell (NYJ) - 42% owned - Powell has been getting consistent work lately and he has averaged almost 10 fantasy points per game over his last four starts. If you're in a pinch for a running back you can look this way as the Jets play against a weak Colts team giving up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Honorable mention: Adrian Peterson (MIN) - 43% owned

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill (KC) - 37% owned - Hill made a name for himself on Sunday night after catching 9 of 10 targets for 52 yards and a touchdown, rushing for another touchdown and returning a free kick after a safety for a third score. If he can put up this fantasy production against the Broncos then he shouldn't have any issues this week in a great matchup with the Falcons.

Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) - 28% owned - Enunwa looked to be falling out of fantasy relevance the past few weeks but he had a resurgence against the Patriots catching 5 of 5 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. He has two great matchups coming back to back, first against the Colts and then against 49ers.

Honorable mention: Tyler Boyd (CIN) - 50% owned

Tight End

Vance McDonald (SF) - 10% owned - Rolling with McDonald for the second straight week as he continues to put up numbers with Kaepernick under center. He is the number eight tight end in standard scoring over the past four weeks and has consistently been getting 6 or 7 targets a game.

Honorable mention: C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) - 35% owned

Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB) - 5% owned - Not many great streaming options available for this week, but the Bucs have  the second highest fantasy scoring defense over the past four games. They have been getting good pressure and sacks on opposing quarterbacks in this stretch so expect that to continue against Rivers this week.

Details

Written by Jason Evans

Created: 28 November 2016

• nfl
• week 12
• colin kaepernick
• statistically insignificant
• justin tucker
• taylor gabriel
• kansas city chiefs

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

199 Yards Kicked

Justin Tucker kicked 3-50+ yard field goals in the first half of Sunday's game - two of them coming inside the final two minutes of the half. For the game, he kicked 4 FG's totaling 199 yards - a completely meaningless and thus fitting stat. Just the kind of stat that is followed by a slow-clap worthy dad joke to begin a press conference. Or perhaps a play where an entire team is held, and then gives up a safety in order to secure victory. The Ravens aren't pretty to watch, but damn it's interesting.

3 Plays in a Row

The Chiefs had a sequence of three plays in a row where they scored points in Sunday night's game in Denver. A safety, followed by a return of the ensuing free kick and then the extra point locked up 9 points in just 16 seconds for the Chiefs. It's not unheard of to have several plays score points a row in a game, however, the same team doing it on more than two plays in a row is not something I remember seeing. This game also had another fun stat I appreciated. Emmanuel Sanders had 99 yards (and a TD) on a drive that started from the Denver 12. Yay, penalties! Also, my dynasty team thanks you, Sanders.

7 Fourth Quarter Comebacks

The first place, 7-4 Detroit Lions have won all of their games after being down in the fourth quarter. It's not often a result of a pretty Matt Stafford performance, but he has figured out how to just win games this year. The Lions essentially have a 2-game lead over the Vikings, by virtue of the tiebreaker, and there are only 5 games left in the regular season. Meanwhile, the collapse continues in Minneapolis, where it'll be a cold, cold winter if they miss the playoffs after starting the season 5-0.

34.14 Fantasy Points

Colin Kaepernick lead all fantasy players in Week 12 with 34.14 points, and is the 3rd best QB over last 4 weeks, averaging 25.18 points per week. The Niners have not, of course, won a single game with Kaep at the helm, but it shouldn't stop you from winning fantasy games! He's owned in only 24% of leagues (it was 18% going into yesterday's game). His superpower this year is garbage time, so as long as the 49ers stay awful, he will have plenty of room to run in the 4th quarter, and opponents will be lulled into sleeping after three quarters of nothing going on. I dunno, I just see a guy with a really high fantasy floor who has outperformed most other QBs when it comes to fantasy production.

6% Owned in Yahoo Leagues

I swear this isn't turning into a waiver wire article - I'm just borrowing a few stats. Taylor Gabriel is owned in only 6% of Yahoo leagues (3% before the game yesterday). He's quietly been the second best WR in all of fantasy over the last 4 weeks, nearly a full point per week ahead of Mike Evans and trailing only Antonio Brown, who just scored another touchdown on his way out of Indianapolis. I'm not saying that this kind of production can keep up, but over the last 4 games, the Falcons have found a guy who knows how to find the end zone. The Falcons have won every game where he has at least 2 catches and are 1-4 when he doesn't. Now if that's not misleadingly insignificant, I don't know what is. Or is it? I've had too much turkey this weekend, and it's going to my head.

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Written by Matt Cochrane

Created: 26 November 2016

• nfl
• survivor pool
• week 12
• miami dolphins
• new york giants
• fade the browns

Last week was a no brainer, with the Steelers walloping the Cleveland Browns. In the process they may have done them a favor concussing Cody Kessler and allowing Josh McCown to regain the starting spot. McCown is the only choice if you are the Browns head coach and don't want to finish the season winless, which they still probably will. Which leads me to this week's survivor pick - the New York Giants 7.5 point favorites at Cleveland. I think the Giants cover in this one as they desperately try to keep pace with the Cowboys.

Looking at the Browns remaining schedule I would say either this game or Cincinnati in two weeks are their best shots to steal a win. In fact, I plan on placing a wager on that Bengals game coming off the bye.

Miami, Buffalo, and New Orleans are also very strong picks this week. Jay Ajayi is going to eat up the 49ers last ranked run defense, making Miami a safe pick.

Blake Bortles has shown this year that he cannot perform well enough to flourish against a top tier defense like Buffalo's. Expect a lot of pressure and interceptions in that one for Blake.

Finally, the Saints, believe it or not, are still in contention in the NFC South at 4-6, only 2 games back of the 6-4 Falcons. I expect them to have an easy day in the dome against Jared Goff and the Rams. The Rams defense will have to have a perfect game to even give them a shot in this one.

Cheers! Drink Five!

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Written by Shawn Foss

Created: 25 November 2016

• fantasy football
• rookie report,
• nfl
• starts & sits
• week 12

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 11 was yet another nightmare week for injuries. Season-ending injuries (or at least potentially season-ending) were suffered by Jay Cutler, Gio Bernard, Zach Miller, Cody Kessler, and CJ Prosise, while less severe injuries befell AJ Green, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, Stefon Diggs, Andrew Luck, Mark Ingram and Robert Woods. It's likely creating some messes for your fantasy lineups, but it also is creating opportunity for several members of this year's rookie crop. Your decisions this week are likely pretty important with just 2 regular season fantasy games left in most leagues. Before I dive in to the rookie matchups, I wanted to put out a quick reminder: The players below are listed in the order I would want to play them within each position level. There are several comparable players listed as 'Borderline' this week, so I wanted to make sure to clarify that in this all-important week. With that out of the way, let's take a look at the week 12 slate:

Rookies to Start:

QB Dak Prescott, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): It's getting hard to not trust Dak at this point. He's had the safest floor of anyone not named Brees or Brady with 17+ fantasy points in 9 straight (all point totals are in ESPN standard scoring). He's been taking his production to another level over the past month. He's been the QB5, QB7, QB10, and QB4 in the 4 games since the Cowboys' bye. Washington isn't a defense to be afraid of. They rank in the middle of the pack in points allowed to opposing QBs and 17th in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency. Prescott should once again be a top-10 option.

RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Like Prescott, Zeke has proven to have a rock-solid floor, and he's shown an even higher ceiling than his QB. He's gotten to the point where he is a ‘set it & forget it’ option at running back each week. Elliott leads the NFL in rushing yards and the Washington ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. Zeke is a strong RB1 option once again.

RB Jordan Howard, CHI (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Howard should see a ton of volume this week with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery both out, and he is averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season. His efficiency is likely to suffer this week as the Titans stack the box and pay no mind to Matt Barkley. Tennessee allows the 9th-fewest RB points per game, so the sledding may be tough, but volume should be enough to get Howard to RB2 status.

WR Michael Thomas, NO (Wk. 12: vs. LA): A home game for New Orleans means you should get all of your Saints pass catchers into the lineup. That didn't apply for Thomas vs. Denver, but it should apply here. The Rams' overall numbers vs. WRs have been decent, but they've been vulnerable on the road, allowing over 30 WR points in 3 of their 5 road games. New Orleans should have a great chance to make it 4 of 6. Thomas should be a safe WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. GB): The recent implosion of the Green Bay defense makes Wentz tempting, but he’s been pretty hard to trust thanks to his recent track record. The Packers have allowed over 280 passing yards in each of their past 4 games, and 12 TD passes in that stretch, but Wentz has just 4 TDs and 8 turnovers in his past 6 games. He’s also averaged less than 5 yards per attempt in 3 of his last 5. There’s potential for a decent game here, but I view Wentz as more of a QB2 streamer this week. It would be a pretty big leap of faith to trust him as a QB1 this week despite the great matchup.

RB Devontae Booker, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Booker is flex-worthy this week despite struggling in his last 2 games before the Broncos’ bye. He did play 71% of the offensive snaps in week 10 and handled a robust 26 touches. I’d expect him to still be operating as Denver’s clear lead back this week, and the Chiefs allow the 8th-most yards per carry to opposing backs and rank 21^st in run defense DVOA. The only thing stopping me from listing him as a guy to start is his recent inefficient play.

RB Rob Kelley, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): I love the way Kelley is playing lately, and he certainly has a vice-grip on the starting RB job in Washington after his impressive 31-point performance Sunday night, but the matchup this week is a tough one. Kelley isn’t an explosive runner. He gets by on run volume alone and is a non-factor in the passing game. Dallas’s ball control offense has limited opposing running backs to just 16.4 attempts per game (fewest allowed in the league), and only 2 teams have had more than 18 attempts against them. The volume will be a bit thin this week for ‘Fat Rob’ Kelley. The offense is still good enough to set him up for a short TD or 2, but he will likely be a disappointment if he doesn’t find the end zone.

RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. GB): The Eagles’ backfield is pretty banged up coming out of week 11, and that could make Smallwood the starter this week by default. Early reports have made it sound like Ryan Mathews is unlikely to play with an ankle injury, and Darren Sproles is likely to play through a rib injury. If that situation holds, I still like Smallwood as a streamer in deeper leagues. He would see plenty of early down work on a team that has the 8th-highest percentage of run plays called. Green Bay’s entire defense has been crumbling lately and has allowed 22, 27, 28, and 32 RB points in their past 4 games. They also lost starting inside linebacker Blake Martinez to injury Sunday night. I’d move Wendell to the ‘Start’ section if both Sproles & Mathews are out, and closer to ‘Sit’ if both play, but as things stand, he should be a fine streaming option in leagues with 12+ teams.

WR Tyler Boyd, CIN (Wk. 12: @Bal.): At the very least, Boyd is worth a pickup in just about all leagues. His role moving forward is still a little up in the air since Brandon LaFell seems like a more natural fit for the AJ Green role, but Boyd did have his best game of the year last week after Green went down. Also, LaFell missed practice on Wednesday and his status is in doubt for this week. I’d expect Cincy to lean on Jeremy Hill and the running game a bit more, but Boyd could fill some of the short passing game void left by the Gio Bernard injury. The Ravens rank 21^st in pass defense DVOA on short passes, which is an area where Boyd has performed well. He should be a safe WR3 in PPR formats, and will be a little less safe in standard leagues.

WR Sterling Shepard, NYG (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Shep has found the end zone in 3 straight games, has seen 7+ targets in 8 of the last 9 (6 targets in the other game), and faces the hapless Browns this week. The Browns clock in at 30^th in pass defense DVOA. It’s hard to fully trust Shepard as a locked-in starter until his yardage output increases. He’s been too touchdown dependent. Still, the number of targets he sees and the plus matchup will make him a borderline WR3 again.

WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN (Wk. 12: @Chi.): Sharpe has bounced back nicely from his early season woes with 58+ yards in 4 of his past 5 games, and 68 yards and a TD in each of the past 2. The Bears have allowed the 3rd-most wide receiver points per game and have allowed 150+ yards to the position in 8 of 10 games as well as 11 total TDs. Sharpe is on the WR 3/4 radar this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Jared Goff, LA (Wk. 12: @NO): I’d avoid Goff even in 2QB leagues despite what appears to be a good matchup in the Superdome. The matchup might not be quite as tempting as you’d expect. The Saints do rank a pretty poor 25^th in pass defense DVOA, but have allowed just 13.8 fantasy points per game in their past 4 contests (would be tied for 5th-fewest if it was their season average). Goff will be playing with training wheels on during his first few starts. He averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt last week, and while the game script should lead the Rams to be more pass-heavy, Jeff Fisher doesn’t always follow game script.

RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): Dixon remains a big part of the mix in the Ravens’ backfield as the snaps were almost an even split between he and Terrance West last Sunday. The Ravens did play much of that game from behind, however, and Dixon has been utilized much more on passing downs than in running situations. I would expect them to be in better shape on the scoreboard against the AJ Green-less Bengals. West gets the goal line carries, so there isn’t much TD upside for Dixon, and without it he’s going to be hard to trust this week. He’s had just one usable week thus far, and I don’t expect this to be number 2.

RBs DeAndre Washington & Jalen Richard, OAK (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): It was nice to see Richard find the end zone in week 11. Since DeAndre played just 4 snaps, it appears that there is some clarity in the Raiders' number 2 running back role. We've been down this road before, however. The Raiders have had no problem swapping the roles of these two without warning before, and there is no guarantee they won't do it this time. In any case, neither Washington nor Richard is a good option in a tough matchup with the Panthers, even if Richard remains the clear number 2 back.

RB Dwayne Washington, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Washington failed to produce against the lackluster Jaguars' run defense, putting up just 6 yards on 13 carries. The Vikings aren't any better at limiting fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Jags, but they rank 12th in run defense DVOA while Jacksonville ranks 23rd. You can't count on Dwayne to produce this week.

WR Tyreek Hill, KC (Wk. 12: @Den.): Hill’s volume should be decent once again if Maclin is unable to play for the 3^rd straight week, but the Broncos should be able to limit all of KC’s wide receivers. Denver ranks 1^st in overall pass defense DVOA, and also 1^st in pass defense DVOA on short throws, which are a big part of Hill’s game. He’s best left sidelined this week.

WR Robby Anderson, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Anderson does have a little upside this week as he’s basically been operating as the Jets’ WR2, but he has yet to top 7 fantasy points in a game, has seen his QB change on an almost weekly basis, and faces the defense that allows the 7th-fewest WR points per game. He’s safe for 3-6 points, but not much more.

WR Will Fuller, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. SD): At this point you can’t trust Fuller until he proves he’s operating at full strength. He’s a speed merchant, so his value is being sapped drastically by his leg injury. He just put up a 1-17 line in a plus matchup last week. I would keep him firmly benched until he starts producing again.

WR Braxton Miller, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. SD): Miller played more snaps than Fuller last Monday, but he produced just 5 catches for 25 yards. He did find the end zone for the first time in his young career, but his snap share will drop as Fuller gets healthier and you can’t count on a weekly TD from anyone in this offense.

TE Austin Hooper, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. Ari.): With Jacob Tamme on IR, Hooper should take over as the starting tight end for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup this week. The Cardinals haven't allowed a tight end TD all season, and they allow just 2.9 catches per game to the position. Only two teams have gained more than 50 yards with their TEs against Arizona. Some notable TE stat lines against them: Martellus Bennett 3-14, Jimmy Graham 5-53, Greg Olsen 1-11, and Kyle Rudolph 2-12. I find it hard to believe that Hooper will be the tight end to buck that trend.

TE Hunter Henry, SD (Wk. 12: @Hou.): Henry should be getting healthier and did score a touchdown heading into the bye week, but Antonio Gates is back in the saddle as the Chargers top TE, and the Texans allow the 5th-fewest TE points in the league. You can't trust Henry this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Paul Perkins, NYG (Wk. 12: @Cle.): The Giants are a touchdown favorite on the road, so Perkins might see some extra work if the G-Men get out in front. The Browns rank just 30^th in run defense DVOA. There is a good amount of risk here after Perkins saw just 6 touches last weekend, but he has the upside to have a decent flex-worthy week.

RB Derrick Henry, TEN (Wk. 12: @Chi.): This is mostly a gut call with Henry. He was shelved last week as the Titans were playing catch up right out of the gate after falling into a 21-0 hole, but this week they’re 5-point road favorites in Chicago. The Bears are going to be starting Matt Barkley at QB, so falling way behind in this one seems highly unlikely. I expect the Titans to win easily, and for Henry to see a good amount of work once they get ahead. The Bears have been fairly solid against the run, allowing the 4^th fewest RB points per game, but they’ll be missing their leading tackler (Jerrell Freeman) due to a PED suspension. If the Titans win big like I think they can, Henry has a good chance to return RB2 value. He might be worth a roll of the dice in DFS tournaments.

RB Troymaine Pope, SEA (Wk. 12: @TB): Pope is just a stash for really deep leagues at this point as he battles through a high ankle sprain suffered last week. The Seahawks liked Pope enough to cut C-Mike loose to promote him from the practice squad, and the coaching staff has heaped praise on him. He hasn’t been productive yet, but he could have big value if anything happens to Thomas Rawls down the stretch. Keep an eye on his health situation.

WR Corey Coleman, CLE (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): Coleman probably has too prominent a role on his team to be called a ‘Sleeper,’ but I didn’t feel like he fit into the ‘Borderline’ or ‘Sit’ sections either. He hasn’t been very productive since returning from his broken hand, but if he keeps seeing 12 targets like he did last Sunday, he’s bound for a breakout game at some point. The Giants rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to WR1s, which would be Terrelle Pryor for Cleveland, so there could be some opportunity for Coleman despite the tough matchup. If you want to roll the dice on him in a deeper league, there’s enough of a floor that he won’t kill you if he doesn’t go off.

WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE (Wk. 12: NYJ): This will undoubtedly feel like you’re chasing last week’s points after Mitchell’s 4-98-1 breakout game last week, but he’ll have big upside again if Chris Hogan sits once more. Hogan and Gronk are practicing Wednesday, so they might be able to play, but Brady did heap praise on the youngster and he likely earned himself more snaps going forward. The Jets rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed the 10th-most WR points per game, so Mitchell could be a WR3 if Hogan doesn’t suit up.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully, it helps with the tough lineup decisions this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report as the week wears on to make sure you don't start anyone who's not playing or anyone who's playing time depended on the starter being out. Also, if you're waiting on injury updates for Sunday, make sure to not use players in Thursday's games in flex spots if you can help it. It can allow for more flexibility with fill-ins if anyone ends up out at the last minute. If you have any specific questions, or just want to yell at me about anything included above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game. 

Details

Written by Jason Evans

Created: 22 November 2016

• fantasy football
• drinkfive
• nfl
• week 12 rankings
• devante parker
• mike wallce

The fantasy playoffs are nearly upon us, and the fantasy gods have granted us one week of no byes before they start (next week, the Titans and Browns are off). If you haven't clinched yet, then your playoffs basically start now, so take our advice on who to pick up on the waiver wire and then use our rankings to set your lineups later this week. This is Thanksgiving week, so make sure you check all your lineups on Wednesday night before heading off to the bar, the first game starts at 11:30am CST! The Vikings, Lions, Redskins, Cowboys, Steelers and Colts all play on turkey day.

This week, aside from keeping up with injuries, keep an eye on LeSean McCoy's status, he may be a sit if you're bold enough. Latavius Murray is worthy of a sit if you have other options - he's been splitting way too many carries for my comfort. Finally, look to get DeVante Parker and Mike Wallace in the lineup against bad defenses. Good Luck!