Fantasy Football / NFL

Details: Written by Shawn Foss; Created: 07 September 2017

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long offseason, but we’re finally ready to rock and roll with the regular season kickoff tonight! As usual, I’ll be back every week this season to give you the rundown of what to do with the fantasy rookies in your life. There are plenty of rookies to keep an eye on that could help you win each week. This year looks like it could be a big one for rookie running backs, with 2 of them picked in the draft’s top-10 picks for the first time since 2005, when Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson all went in the top-5. Several of the non-1^st rounders should play significant roles as well, as Dalvin Cook and Kareem Hunt already have earned their team’s starting jobs. Rookie WRs were also a priority in the ’17 draft, with 3 of them selected in the top-10 for the first time since ’05. Unfortunately, two of those top 3 WRs this year are going to miss week one, and the other might not be 100%. At any rate, the rookie crop is inevitably going to play a big role in your fantasy season at some point. They always do. The hard part is figuring out when. Without any sort of track record of success, the rookies are always the hardest to project, but I’ll be taking a stab at it each week.

Week one is always the hardest to figure out, so the best strategy in season-long leagues is usually to exercise some caution. With no bye weeks (save Miami & Tampa Bay), week 1 is usually the time to start your studs that you drafted early, not take a shot on a late round rookie who impressed you in the preseason. There’s DFS tournaments for that. With that in mind, there won’t be too many players that I recommend as starters this week, but there will be a few that I mention as DFS sleepers. One word of caution I want to throw in…I did use some team defensive stats from last year to make the case for a good or poor matchup for a couple of players listed here. Those numbers have meaning, but shouldn’t be treated as automatic that they will repeat that performance this year. I mostly used them because we don’t have a lot else to go on to determine matchup quality. If you see any fantasy points allowed numbers, they are based on ESPN standard scoring, and any DFS price tags will be from DraftKings. Alright, that’s enough housekeeping for this week, let’s dive in…

Rookies to Start:

RB Dalvin Cook, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. NO): Cook is the unquestioned lead back in Minnesota, and he gets to face a Saints defense that coughed up the 3^rd-most running back fantasy points last year. New Orleans has made some improvements to their defense with Marshon Lattimore, Manti Te’o and AJ Klein, but they still have a long way to go. The Vikings enter the game as a 3.5-point favorite, so they should be able to lean on the run a bit, and Cook will also be vital in the passing game. Bradford targeted the running backs more than 100 times last year, and Cook posted nearly 500 receiving yards as a junior at Florida State last year (488). Cook should be an RB2 easily this week and has upside for more.

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 1: @Hou): It could be tough sledding for Fournette against a Texans defense that ranked 12^th vs running backs last year and now has a healthy JJ Watt, but the Jaguars have made it no secret that this offense will revolve around Fournette. I’d be surprised if he touches the ball fewer than 20 times this week, and that volume alone should make him an RB2. If you went heavy at running back and have 2 studs to start over him, go ahead, but odds are you took Fournette as a starter. You should use him as such this week.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 1: @NE): Hunt rolls into week 1 as the Chiefs starting running back, but he gets a tough matchup on opening night. The Patriots allowed the 8^th fewest RB fantasy points a year ago, and the game script should have KC throwing late as a 9.5-point underdog. Hunt’s season-long outlook is bright, but he might not shine as bright week 1. In 18 years as a head coach, Andy Reid has had a running back clear 1,200 scrimmage yards in 13 of them, clear 1,500 yards in 5 of them, and clear 1,900 in 3 of them. He knows how to scheme the ball to RBs. The tough week one matchup should make him a low-end RB2 or flex option, but there are better weeks ahead.

kareem hunt

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 1: @SF): I’m not sure I fully buy into the hype on Christian McCaffrey. I’m convinced he’s an explosive athlete who will be fun to watch…I’m just not sure what his usage will look like this year. He’s been talked up as if he will be a focal point of the offense, but that would run counter to how the Panthers’ offense has operated under Cam Newton. In his 6 seasons in Carolina, only one RB has reached 30 receptions in a season (D’Angelo Williams in Cam’s rookie year). I still expect Jonathan Stewart to be a factor on early downs and at the goal line, so McCaffrey needs to have the receiving usage to live up to the hype and be worth his draft price. The Panthers have claimed that this will be a totally different offense, but I need to see it to believe it. Luckily for McCaffrey, this week is as good as any for them to prove me wrong. The 49ers young defense should be improved, but they were easily the worst unit against RBs in the NFL last year. If the Panthers do utilize McCaffrey, I don’t think SF will be up to the challenge of slowing him down. He’s a boom-or-bust RB2/flex option this week.

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): Jones should be the Bills de-facto WR1 this week with Jordan Matthews battling back from a sternum injury and Anquan Boldin retired. The game plan should be run-heavy with the Bills a 9-point favorite, but I still think Zay has a better than 50/50 shot to catch 5+ balls. He did catch 158 balls last year at ECU, so 5 should be manageable against the hapless Jets. He’s an intriguing option in deeper PPR leagues this week.

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): Kupp’s outlook is similar to Zay, but he has Sammy Watkins ahead of him on the depth chart. The Rams will pound the rock much like Buffalo, but Kupp has shown a great connection with Jared Goff so far and should be involved. I said I like Zay for 5+ catches, but I like Kupp for 5+ targets. If Goff struggles to connect with Watkins, it could mean extra looks for Kupp.

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. Oak.): Davis is likely going to be limited in the opener after playing exactly zero preseason snaps, but he was listed as a starter on the Titans’ depth chart ahead of Sunday’s tilt with the Raiders. I would probably consider Davis more of a deep league sleeper for this week, but it would feel weird to call the draft’s #5 pick a sleeper in his first game. While Delanie Walker is probably the best fantasy play of any Titan pass catcher this week, I think it’s very possible that Mularkey gives Davis more run than expected. 60+ yards and a TD aren’t out of the question for the WMU product’s debut.

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 1: @Dal.): Rookie TEs rarely produce in fantasy football, but Evan Engram has a chance to be the exception to that rule. Giants beat reporter Jordan Ranaan expects him to play 60%+ of the snaps this year, and he’s a matchup nightmare as more of a WR/TE hybrid. He could get off to a fast start facing a Cowboys defense that allowed the most catches and yards to TEs in the NFL a year ago. There’s also a chance that Odell Beckham misses this game, which would certainly increase how much opportunity Engram sees. He’s a cheap DFS option at just $2,900 on DraftKings, and he’s an intriguing low-end starting option in deep leagues.

Rookies to Sit:

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Pit.): The Steelers are not an ideal opponent to face in your first NFL start. The average point total for a top-12 weekly fantasy QB last season was 21.5. The Steelers didn’t allow that many in a game all season. The most they allowed was 21.0 to Carson Wentz early in the year. There will be good weeks for Kizer this season, but I don’t like the chances that this is one of them. He’s probably left benched even in 2QB leagues.

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): I like Mixon’s season-long outlook, but week 1 looks dicey for him. The Bengals have stubbornly kept Jeremy Hill atop the depth chart, and the Ravens’ run defense is typically solid. While I doubt Hill keeps the job for long, he’ll limit Mixon’s opportunity as long as he does. I would expect only 10-12 touches for Mixon this week, which just isn’t enough to trust him in most leagues.

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 1: @Mia.): You have to take a wait-and-see approach with Kamara. He could have a significant passing game role as Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet have had in New Orleans in the past, but I have no clue how much he will play with Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson around. Ingram has openly talked about working to improve as a receiver, so it’s best to give this a week to get a better idea of how the usage will shake out.

RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): Williams remains behind Ty Montgomery on the depth chart. He’s listed as the number 2 back, and Montgomery has a career-high of just 16 carries in a game, so Williams should at least see some work, but probably not enough to be a fantasy factor. It doesn’t help that the matchup isn’t a good one. The Seahawks added Sheldon Richardson to a defense that allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB fantasy points last year.

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): If Mack gets the 3^rd down work for Indy, the game script might actually work in his favor this week. The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog. There is, however, no guarantee that he gets the 3^rd down work. Frank Gore just refuses to go quietly into the night. The Matt Jones signing also muddies the backup picture behind Gore a little bit, and Scott Tolzien will be starting at QB this week. This is a situation to avoid.

RB Semaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): For now, the Washington starting job belongs to Rob Kelley with Chris Thompson handling the passing down work. Perine might have value later in the season, but he is going to have to earn a role.

WR Taywan Taylor, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. Oak.): The return of Corey Davis for week 1 saps a lot of upside that Taywan might have had for the opener. He may play some snaps spelling Davis and Eric Decker, who also battled injury in the latter part of the training camp, but I don’t expect him to play enough to warrant fantasy consideration this week despite his strong preseason.

WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 1: @Hou.): Dede surprisingly passed Allen Hurns on the Jaguars depth chart and earned a starting spot with a strong camp, but I’d expect a run-heavy game plan and the majority of the passing targets peppered to Allen Robinson and Marquise Lee. There likely won’t be enough passing volume left over to make Westbrook a viable play. In 3 career starts in Houston, Blake Bortles has averaged just 149 passing yards per start, and is coming off an abysmal preseason.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): Fantasy players were excited for Golladay after his 2-TD preseason debut, but he hasn’t done a whole lot since then. It was reported this week that he will split the WR3 role with TJ Jones, at least to open the season. The Lions will continue to play their keep-away style of offense which will sap some of the passing volume, and Golladay currently sits behind Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdullah, and Eric Ebron in line for targets. He’ll have some good weeks later this season, but week 1 isn’t the time to play him.

WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (Wk. 1: @SF): Samuel may be involved at least a little this week, but he’s basically the 6^th guy in line for touches behind KB, Olsen, McCaffrey, Funchess, and Jonathan Stewart. I wouldn’t expect much this week.

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Pit.): Njoku was limited for much of the preseason, and will likely need a few weeks to get his legs under him. Rookie TEs are notorious for not producing much in fantasy, so I’d be hard pressed to trust a guy who caught 4 passes in the preseason as a starter in week 1. If he has any productive weeks this year, they will likely come later in the season.

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): Kittle has been a camp surprise in San Francisco. He’s played well enough that the 49ers traded away Vance McDonald and named him the starter. Unfortunately, he’s battling a hamstring injury that he aggravated at practice on Wednesday. If he does play, I’d expect him to share a lot of snaps with Logan Paulsen and Garrett Celek, which will make Kittle irrelevant for fantasy purposes this week.

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Chris Carson, SEA (Wk. 1: @GB): Thomas Rawls is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with the Packers, and with Rawls out in the team’s 3^rd preseason game (the dress rehearsal for the regular season), Carson split first team work with Eddie Lacy. If Rawls sits the opener, there is a non-zero chance that Carson develops the hot hand and sees a much larger chunk of the work than Lacy, and Green Bay was inconsistent against the run last year. I’m not saying it’s a huge chance, but Carson will cost the minimum in DraftKings. If Rawls plays, this is a moot point. The backfield situation will be too crowded to roll the dice on Carson in that scenario.

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Like Carson, Cohen is a cheap DFS punt play in GPP tournaments. Most fantasy players have come into the season assuming Jordan Howard will have a 3-down role, and he was drafted as a top-8 RB. There are plenty of red flags though. Before last season, he never really displayed any receiving chops, and he posted just a 58% catch rate as a rookie. The Bears are expected to play from behind a lot this year, with Vegas odds putting their win total at 5.5, and local beat writers expect Cohen to have a role right out of the gate. If Howard cedes some passing down work to the quicker, shiftier Cohen, it could put a damper on his season. It could also result in some nice weeks for Cohen. The week 1 matchup for Cohen is juicy. The Falcons allowed a league high 141 targets and 109 receptions to opposing RBs. Cohen has looked explosive this preseason, and will cost just the minimum on DraftKings ($3,000). There is also a chance that it’s Benny Cunningham who takes that passing work, so he’s also an intriguing option at $3,600 in DK.

WR ArDarius Stewart, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Buf.): ArDarius seemed like an obvious starter on this team and possibly their leading receiver until they acquired Jermaine Kearse and signed Jeremy Kerley in the last week. Important note: ArDarius is a better WR than Kerley or Kearse. He unfortunately costs more than the minimum in DraftKings this week ($3,700), but he still likely starts in the slot on a team that will be playing from behind. Kerley was just signed Tuesday, and played under a different coach the last time he was a Jet, so I wouldn’t expect him to be able to jump right in as the slot receiver in week 1. ArDarius is a risky dart throw, but one worth considering against a shaky Bills defense that ranked 21^st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last year.

WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): The reason Jeremy Kerley signed with Jets this offseason is that Trent Taylor beat him out for the starting slot WR role in San Francisco. He also led the NCAA in receiving yards last season. Kyle Shanahan’s offense employs 3-WR sets less often than most teams, but the Falcons last year still ran 45% of their snaps from 11-personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) with Shanahan as the coordinator. Taylor should be on the field for most of those snaps if not all. He’ll cost the minimum in DraftKings and has a chance to surprise against a suspect Carolina secondary.

TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): The Colts were one of 7 teams last year to allow 1,000 receiving yards to TEs, and new Rams head coach Sean McVay uses the TE position a lot (10 targets/gm last year in Washington). Everett is a TD dart throw with the upside for more and he will cost the minimum on DraftKings ($2,500). Tyler Higbee is listed as the starter, but Everett should play a bunch.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you win your week one matchups or strike DFS gold. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week to avoid any obvious goose eggs in your lineup, but other than that, sit back and enjoy the first meaningful NFL football of the year. It should be a fun few months. Hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything above (@Shawn_Foss), and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Details: Written by M.J. Nicholas; Created: 07 September 2017

Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking winners, spreads and over/ unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this weekly column, I'll go over every match up and let you in on the deciding factors which will lead me to my winning visions for the week ahead. I'll also throw in the occasional article and words of advice on wagering strategies. But hey, if for some reason any of Nick's picks let you down, I'm cool with you telling your bookie it was all my fault.

WEEK 1 PICKS:

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 23 @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 30 - The Chiefs are getting better, but the Patriots still have Brady and Billy B. Plus, New England is at home and going to raise the banner. It will be great to see the top two tight ends in the game as well as explosive players like Hill and Hunt on the Chiefs in this contest. Take the Patriots to win but I would avoid the spread... too evenly matched for 9 points. Go with the over(48).

NEW YORK JETS 16 @ BUFFALO BILLS 27 - Not much to say here other than the Jets are in a state of disarray and the Bills have Shady running the rock. I really am not expecting either offense to look 'crisp'. I'd take the Bills and the 9.5 points as well as hitting the over.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 27 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 34 - Half the football experts have the Eagles pulling this one out, so looks like I'm going to have to go against half the grain. Kirk Cousins has stellar numbers against Philadelphia in his short career against them and the Redskins are at home in this game. Even though Philly's defense is ranked in the top ten, I don't feel they will match last year's numbers, especially since I believe they will finish last in the NFC East this season. Additionally, I think Washington upgraded their receiving core as well as getting key players healthy the last couple weeks. I also haven't seen much continuity in the Eagles running game yet. Definitely go with the Redskins and the point they're given as well as the over of 47.5 points.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 37 @ DETROIT LIONS 20 - This is another game I think a lot of experts are way off on. First off, there is no way the Lions are going to be able to stop the top fantasy player in the league. The Arizona D also upgraded in the off-season and allowed a season-low, two TD total to tight ends in the 2016 season. A couple reasons I bring this up is because Detroit's current TE, Eric Ebron, had one TD all of last season, and the Lions are probably the team in the league most dependent on the pass, especially since they haven't had a hundred-yard runner in a hundred-years. Actually, it was only 46 games ago(Thanksgiving 2013) by Reggie Bush for 117 yards, but it does seem like a generation could of passed since a Detroit RB had triple digits. I just see no way the Lions have any sort of chance in this one and the point and a half they're given is just comical. Roll with the Cardinals and the over of 48.

ATLANTA FALCONS 40 @ CHICAGO BEARS 13 - Hey, this guy was born and bred in Chicago, but even I'm not biased enough to think that the Bears don't suck. Are they going to be better than last year? Well, probably. I mean, most wine and cured cheese get better just by sitting there and aging, so why shouldn't the Bears get better by pulling off a few half-ass, off-season moves? They are obviously starting the wrong quarterback to boot and most of the NFL knows it. No need to break down strategies here. Atlanta is bringing back everyone, except with a new offensive coordinator in tow. All the weapons will be there at Matt Ryan's disposal, so watch out Chicago. Since it will be a beat-down, feel comfortable taking the Falcons and the 7 points as well as the 49.5 over. After all, Atlanta will be putting 40 of those points on the board.

OAKLAND RAIDERS 34 @ TENNESSEE TITANS 27 - Another game with me fighting the system. I'm close to winning my confidence and survivor pools every year, so why not think of myself as an expert? I mean, my competition does. HAHAHA Anyway, Lynch is back running the rock and Carr is back throwing the rock from last year's devastating injury. Cooper and Crabtree hauling in passes and TD's. Great story-lines for Oakland. Mariota also had a devastating injury late last-year, but hasn't looked too accurate in the preseason. I know that's not a 'judge-all' for how the season will play out, but until I see results, I'm tempering beginning-of-season expectations. Take Oakland to win with the 2 points they're given and the 50.5 point over with confidence.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 16 @ HOUSTON TEXANS 20 - A contest of two strong defenses and mediocre QB play. Points will come at a premium but the Texans should have more big plays in the game due to having big play makers, such as the likes of Hopkins, Miller and Watt. Comfortably take Houston and the 5.5 points. First game so far of week one to consider the 39.5 under.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 30 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS 20 - A bunch of people are thinking this game is going to be closer than it really is. Hey, the Browns made some upgrades recently, but don't let alcohol or drug addiction ever influence your decision on taking Cleveland over Pittsburgh... especially since the Steelers now have the '4' B's: Bell, Brown, Ben and Bryant. So go with Blitzburgh and the 8.5 points, but don't put too much on the over(47) if you need to wager point totals on this one.

BALTIMORE RAVENS 20 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS 27 - I expect this one to be a divisional grind and an average amount of points being scored. Other than Danny Woodhead, I don't see a lot of improvements on Baltimore's end. The Bengals have an all-around, better team and should have no problem with the Ravens at home, especially since Baltimore might be fighting Cleveland for last in the AFC North this season. Have no worries taking Cincinnati and the 3 points, but cautiously take the 42.5 over.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 0 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS 0 - Game cancelled due to weather.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 13 @ LOS ANGELES RAMS 27 - No Andrew Luck, so guess who is sh*t out of luck? You guessed it, the Indianapolis Colts. I'm thrilled to have the Rams' defense on my high dollar fantasy team. Another game with not much strategy to break down other than, A. Luck is out and the Rams' Defense smells blood. Smile all day taking the Rams and the 3.5 point spread but go with the 41.5 under.

CAROLINA PANTHERS 24 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 20 - A game that should end up closer than both teams want, so don't flash all the cash on this one. The Panthers have more pieces of the puzzle than the 49ers do, but Cam's arm is still a question mark, even though he will be getting the start. I just don't know how well I can trust it. San Fran isn't a powerhouse by any means but is making quick enough strides to make this a close contest. Go with the Panthers and the -5.5 but stick with the under of 48 points.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 24 @ GREEN BAY PACKERS 34 - I like Green Bay's track record at home against Seattle and think they should have no problem pulling this game off. I also don't think the 'Legion of Boom' will be as big of a problem for Rodgers and his receiving core these days. It should be some exciting football, but with Packers prevailing in the end with the -3 spread. Also feel comfortable taking the 51 point over.

NEW YORK GIANTS 27 @ DALLAS COWBOYS 31 - Even though the Giants have had success lately against the Cowboys, as well as on the road in Dallas, doesn't mean I automatically think this year will be a repeat. Remember, Prescott and Elliott were rookies in both of those games. Now, both players will have a little more 'seasoning on the meat' and will provide even more value to Cowboys' offense, if you can believe that. This will be a close, divisional game and Eli will have a lot of toys to play with, but in the end, Dallas will prevail due to youth. The Cowboys and -3.5 is safe, but don't go crazy with the amount on this game. Definitely safe to take the 47.5 over.

NFL Rule Changes

Leaping - Over the years some players started to leap over the line of scrimmage when the opposing team was lining up to kick a field goal or extra point in an effort to try and block the kick. This has been decided to be too much of a safety risk to the leaper and has been banned going forward.
Intentional Fouls - If a team is intentionally committing multiple fouls during one play with the goal of running out time on the clock (and only getting a small yardage penalty in return), they will be assessed a larger 15-yard penalty and the time will be put back on the clock.
Centralized replay review - If necessary, final decisions on plays will now be determined at the league's New York Command Center - referees at the game will communicate with the Command Center by using wireless headsets and tablets.
Stronger penalty enforcement for 'egregious hits to the head' - Referees are being encouraged to actually eject players or suspend them for the following game if they are 'targeting' opponents with violent hits to the head.
Overtime shortened to 10 minutes - It was previously set at 15 minutes, but going forward overtime will be shortened to 10 minutes, for player safety reasons.
No longer penalize most player celebrations - In a move to separate themselves from the 'No Fun League' stigma, the NFL will be relaxing restrictions on player celebrations this season, and educating players on what kinds of celebrations (violent, sexual) may still incur a penalty.
Several other rules/guidelines were passed - Eliminating the first roster cut down date (leaving only one final date at which teams will need to cut down their roster to 53 players), allowing 2 players on IR to come back to play in regular season games (previously only 1 per season was allowed), and giving defenseless player protection to receivers running pass routes.

NFL Ops has more specific details on 2017 Rules Changes and Points of Emphasis.

NFL Player Changes / Team Updates

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AFC North

Baltimore Ravens - Added Danny Woodhead (RB), Jeremy Maclin (WR), have suffered some off-season injuries (Kenneth Dixon (RB), Dennis Pitta (TE), Crocket Gillmore (TE)) that will severely impact their ability to make the playoffs and have positional depth late in the season.

Cincinnati Bengals - Added John Ross (WR), Joe Mixon (RB) from the 2017 draft. Coach Marvin Lewis does not have a contract extension, he could be out the door if the Bengals don't achieve something notable in 2017.

Cleveland Browns - Added Kenny Britt (WR) and Brock Osweiler (QB), drafted David Njoku (TE) and DeShone Kizer (QB). Losing Terrelle Pryor (WR), Gary Barnidge (TE), and Josh McCown (QB) leaves the Browns as a younger team going through a QB competition.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Added Knile Davis (RB) in free agency, as well as JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR) and James Conner (RB) from the 2017 draft. Martavis Bryant will return this year which should provide a needed boost to the offense, the loss of Ladarius Green (TE) in the off-season still leaves a question mark at the tight end position.

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AFC South

Houston Texans - Added Deshaun Watson (QB) in the 2017 draft. The Texans have a QB competition between Watson and the incumbent Tom Savage. The loss of Will Fuller (WR) (2-3 months, collarbone) will cause the team to lean on their running game and on DeAndre Hopkins (WR), looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2016 season.

Indianapolis Colts - Not a lot of offensive additions in the off-season. The Colts' biggest concern is the health of Andrew Luck (QB), who underwent off-season surgery on his shoulder and is still not on the field. Amazingly, Frank Gore (RB) looks to still be the starter in Indianapolis - he may just play forever.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Added Leonard Fournette (RB) in the 2017 draft. Blake Bortles' (QB) quality of play this season will make or break the Jaguars.

Tennessee Titans - Added Eric Decker (WR), drafted Corey Davis (WR). The Titans lost Kendall Wright (WR) but upgraded their wide receivers overall with the addition of Decker and Davis. Marcus Mariota (WR) and Co. currently have the arrow pointed up and the weapons to do some damage.

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills - Added Jordan Matthews (WR) via trade, and Zay Jones (WR) in the 2017 draft. Rex Ryan was fired, the Bills hired a new coach and GM, Sammy Watkins (WR) was traded and the team also lost Mike Gillislee (RB). Rough sledding ahead for Tyrod Taylor (QB) and the Bills in 2017 as they try to find their footing.

Miami Dolphins - Added Jay Cutler (QB). Ryan Tannehill (QB) re-injured his left knee, causing the Dolphins (Adam Gase, specifically) to bring back retired QB Jay Cutler. The offensive and defensive talent is there if Jay Cutler can steer the ship adequately in 2017.

New England Patriots - Added Brandin Cooks (WR), Dwayne Allen (TE), Mike Gillislee (RB), Rex Burkhead (RB). The Patriots lost LeGarrette Blount (RB) and Martellus Bennett (TE), but that really doesn't matter. 40-year-old Tom Brady (QB) will lead this team to the playoffs once more, as long as he can stay healthy.

New York Jets - Added Josh McCown (QB). The Jets lost both of their veteran receivers Brandon Marshall (WR) and Eric Decker (WR) in the off-season, and Quincy Enunwa (WR) is out for the year with a neck injury (bulging disc). The QB competition is not even remotely interesting, and it will be a surprise if the Jets are not the worst team in the NFL this season.

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AFC West

Denver Broncos - Added Jamaal Charles (RB). Trevor Siemian (QB) is currently winning the QB competition in Denver, although Paxton Lynch (QB) is expected to supplant him at some point this season, if not by Week 1. Charles may or may not amount to any fantasy relevance depending on his health. The Broncos need to score more points on offense to go along with what is still one of the best defenses in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs - Added Patrick Mahomes (QB) and Kareem Hunt (RB) in the 2017 draft. The loss of Jeremy Maclin (WR) will have an impact on the Chiefs this season, but Travis Kelce (TE) and Tyreek Hill (WR) should have no problem carrying the banner. The big question is whether or not we'll see the rookie QB out on the field in 2017.

Los Angeles Chargers - Added Mike Williams (WR) in the 2017 draft. Williams has not been healthy so far this preseason, but the Chargers have enough weapons already to let him get back to 100%. Will the team be affected by its move to Los Angeles? Probably. The loss of Danny Woodhead (RB) is mostly spelled by Branden Oliver (RB) backing up a surging Melvin Gordon (RB).

Oakland Raiders - Added Marshawn Lynch (RB), Cordarrelle Patterson (WR). Latavius Murray (RB) departed from the Raiders in the off-season, and that's no issue now that the Raiders have been able to bring Lynch on board. There's a promising season ahead here after last year's late injury to Derek Carr (QB) cut 2016 short.

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NFC North

Chicago Bears - Added Mike Glennon (QB), Markus Wheaton (WR), Kendall Wright (WR), Victor Cruz (WR). Added Mitchell Trubisky (QB) from the 2017 draft. The QB competition in Chicago is heating up after Trubisky performed better than expected in his first preseason game. John Fox's future in Chicago relies on whether or not the Bears have a successful season in 2017.

Detroit Lions - Added Kenny Golladay (WR) in the 2017 draft. Lost Anquan Boldin (WR). Eric Ebron (TE) is likely to step up his production this year, along with now healthy Ameer Abdullah (RB). Both are intriguing prospects in redraft leagues. Golladay is blowing it up in the preseason but it remains to be seen whether that will translate to regular season fantasy production behind Golden Tate (WR) and Marvin Jones (WR).

Green Bay Packers - Added Martellus Bennett (TE). The Packers lost Eddie Lacy (RB), James Starks (RB), and Jared Cook (RB) in the off-season, but none of them are necessary to the offensive nucleus that is Aaron Rodgers (QB) and his receivers. The Packers can always put points on the scoreboard, the question is if they can prevent enough points scored against them with their defense in 2017.

Minnesota Vikings - Added Michael Floyd (WR). Added Dalvin Cook (RB) in the 2017 draft. With Adrian Peterson (RB) off to New Orleans, the Vikings have to put their faith in their defense to keep them in games for an opportunity to challenge the Packers for dominance in the NFC North.

nfc south spotlight

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons - Not a lot of changes in the off-season. Previous OC Kyle Shanahan is now the coach of the 49ers, so there will some differences in the offensive play calling - it has been suggested that Julio Jones (WR) will be targeted more but in general the main players like Matt Ryan (QB) and Devonta Freeman (RB) should keep it business as usual in Atlanta.

Carolina Panthers - Added Christian McCaffrey (RB), Curtis Samuel (WR) in the 2017 draft. Lost Ted Ginn (WR) in the off-season. The Panthers will easily be in the running for a playoff position, but newly acquired players like McCaffrey may need some time to develop as offensive tools.

New Orleans Saints - Added Adrian Peterson (RB), Ted Ginn (WR). Added Alvin Kamara (RB) in the 2017 draft. It remains to be seen what Peterson has left in the tank, but the Saints' long-running combination of Drew Brees (QB) and Sean Payton (HC) may be running on fumes as well. In the meantime, Michael Thomas (WR) should continue to dominate downfield this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Added DeSean Jackson (WR). Added O.J. Howard (TE), and Chris Godwin (WR) in the 2017 draft. The Hard Knocks squad is poised to have a successful season in 2017 with a lot of offensive weapons for Jameis Winston (QB) to employ.

nfc east fw

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys - Added Ryan Switzer (WR) in the 2017 draft. A good amount of off-season drama surrounds the Cowboys this year, most notably including a 6-game suspension handed down to Ezekiel Elliott from Roger Goodell and the NFL. Other than that, the team remains mostly the same but has replaced some of their secondary with new faces. We'll see how that pans out.

New York Giants - Added Brandon Marshall (WR). Added Evan Engram (TE) in the 2017 draft. Marshall should provide a boost to the offense - Eli Manning (QB) needs to improve on last year's efforts but shouldn't have an issue with the huge talents of Marshall and Odell Beckham Jr. (WR), not to mention Sterling Shephard (WR). A concern is the running game - with the loss of Rashad Jennings (RB), can the Giants depend on Paul Perkins (RB) to lead the push on a weekly basis?

Philadelphia Eagles - Added Alshon Jeffery (WR), Torrey Smith (WR), and LeGarrette Blount (RB). With the additions of Jeffery and Smith, the Eagles shed Jordan Matthews (WR) and Dorial Green-Beckham (WR) in the off-season. Ryan Mathews (RB) was just recently cut from the team, and it will be interesting to see how all of these additions mesh together over the season.

Washington Redskins - Added Terrelle Pryor (WR). Lost Desean Jackson (WR) and Pierre Garcon (WR). Kirk Cousins is playing on a franchise tag, and Pryor is signed to a one-year "prove it" deal. The Redskins are certainly a formidable team offensively with weapons like Jamison Crowder (WR) and Jordan Reed (TE), but may have issues at RB as we see who comes out on top at the position over the course of the year between Rob Kelley (RB) and Samaje Perine (RB).

nfc west

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals - Not many changes in the off-season. The Cardinals are still led by Carson Palmer (QB), Larry Fitzgerald (WR), and David Johnson (RB). They still have the opportunity to go far into the playoffs, but the age of Palmer and Fitzgerald could become a factor as the grueling season plows onward.

Los Angeles Rams - Added Sammy Watkins (WR), Robert Woods (WR). The Rams are trying to reinvent themselves, and most of that hinges on the success of Jared Goff (QB), now in his 2nd year as starting QB. With a dynamic offensive weapon like Watkins, a strong future in Todd Gurley (RB), and a talented defense, this team could hit .500 in 2017.

San Francisco 49ers - Added Brian Hoyer (QB), Pierre Garcon (WR), Marquise Goodwin (WR). New head coach Kyle Shanahan is going back to the drawing board and the 49ers have separated from Colin Kaepernick (QB), Blaine Gabbert (QB), Torrey Smith (WR), Quinton Patton (WR), and probably most importantly, Chip Kelly (HC).

Seattle Seahawks - Added Eddie Lacy (RB). The excitement this year from the Seahawks' camp mostly comes from the possibility of a resurgence from Lacy (though Thomas Rawls (RB) is a contender to cut into or take over the role as lead back), a healthy Jimmy Graham (TE), and a continuation of the success between Russell Wilson (QB) and Doug Baldwin (WR).

New rule: Unsportsmanlike conduct/leaping

Details: Written by Shawn Foss; Created: 09 August 2017

Rookie Report Special: WR Success Rate Based on Draft Round & College Competition

If you play fantasy football, you’re probably well aware of how important the WR position is to fielding a quality team. While top running backs typically are more consistent week-to-week, the top WRs tend to be more consistent year-to-year, especially as NFL offenses have become more pass-heavy in recent years. In redraft leagues, this gives us a pretty good picture of who the top WR options are because of their track records of production. Sure, there are other factors that come into it, but we have a pretty good base to start from when projecting them. The question I looked at today: How do I evaluate & project the young wide receivers that don’t have a track record yet for dynasty leagues?

There are a lot of people more skilled than I at talent evaluation that have done exhaustive work to try to answer this question on a player-by-player basis. They watch film, study 40 times, hand size, height, SPARQ scores, etc., and try to quantify the talent level of each individual prospect. While that approach is certainly thorough, it still isn’t an exact science. There are still big misses. What I set out to do was take a step back to look at the big picture, and see if there are some bigger trends we can draw from based on draft round and the competition level of their college that can provide context to those individual player evaluations.

To do this, I researched every wide receiver drafted from 2000-2016. I categorized each by their draft round (1,2,3 or 4+), and whether or not they went to a power-5 school (or BCS at the time). I included Notre Dame as a power-5 school. To determine success rate, I classified every WR who posted an 800-yard receiving season as a ‘hit’, and any WR who failed to do so as a ‘miss’. If the player posted 3 or more 800-yard seasons, or 2 or more 1,000-yard seasons, I classified them as a ‘big hit’. I also looked into what % of each group posted a season in which they were targeted 100 or more times. I didn’t know what the results would look like going in, but here are the results I found:

rookie report chart 170811

1st Round Picks

Some of these numbers are pretty much what you’d expect. Not surprisingly, 1st round picks tend to be the most likely to be a ‘hit’, and are most likely to see 100 targets in a season (a whopping 75% of all 1st rounders from 2000-2014 have). The 1st round picks also have the highest ‘big hit’ rate among both, P5 and non-P5 schools. There were 10 wide receivers drafted in the 1st round in 2015 and’16, all from power conferences, and so far only one has seen 100+ targets and/or topped 800 yards (Amari Cooper). Based on the numbers, we should see another 5 of them ‘hit’ at some point, and another 3 of them be a ‘big hit’. Obviously these numbers are percentages over time, so there isn’t any guarantee of how many will step up and hit the marks, but I’m confident at least a few will. Here is the full list of WRs who are yet to hit the 800-yard mark from that group:

Nelson Agholor, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, DeVante Parker, Phillip Dorsett, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, and Laquon Treadwell.

Guys I’m buying:

DeVante Parker: Parker was targeted 87 times last year. His target total went up by 37 from his rookie season even as the Dolphins’ number of pass attempts went down by 111. His catch rate increased by 12.4% from year one to year two also, and Jarvis Landry is an impending free agent. I think Parker is the most likely of this group to hit the 800-yard mark this season, and has the talent to be a fantasy asset for years to come.

Breshad Perriman: Perriman is probably not a name that excites you after missing his whole rookie season with injury, and posting just a 50% catch rate and 7.56 yards per target on his way to a WR73 finish last year (standard scoring). The reason I’m excited about Perriman is that the Ravens lost a whopping 352 targets from last year’s team and have only added Jeremy Maclin in the offseason. Perriman can be had for a reasonable price, and should get plenty of opportunities. If Perriman can deliver on the promise that made him a 1st round draft pick, he should have a bright future with Maclin pushing 30 and Mike Wallace already on the wrong side of it. Wallace is a free agent after this season, and Maclin after next. Acquire Perriman where you can.

Corey Coleman: Coleman has had several soft tissue injuries that have slowed his progress, and still has an unsettled quarterback situation, but I’m a fan of what the Browns are building and Coleman has a great shot to be the lead WR there. He was targeted 73 times as a rookie, and he missed 6 games. 100 targets is likely just a matter of health at this point, but his efficiency will have to get better to be a true fantasy asset. He had a catch rate of just 45.2% and just 12.5 yards per catch. Normally a low catch rate comes because of a lot of downfield passes…but that ypc number doesn’t back that up. Hopefully the efficiency metrics will improve with improved quarterback play. If he’s healthy and doesn’t top the 800-yard mark this year, it would be a surprise.

Guys I’m interested in if the price is right:

Josh Doctson: I’m not extremely bullish on Doctson for 2017, but I still like his long-term outlook. I do believe he’s more talented than Jamison Crowder, but after taking 2016 as pretty much a redshirt year, he’ll have a bit of a learning curve to become a featured weapon in Washington. The signing of Terrelle Pryor certainly hurt Doctson’s upside for this year as well. Pryor signed just a one-year deal, and may bolt for bigger money if he has a breakout season, and Jordan Reed is always one bad concussion away from his career being in jeopardy. There is a real opportunity for Doctson to be the WR1 in DC by 2018.

Nelson Agholor: Agholor has been a big disappointment for the most part thus far. He was drafted to a team where he would have the chance to play right away, but he’s managed to put up just 648 yards total in the past 2 seasons. He has an unproven quarterback in Carson Wentz, posted just a 52% catch rate in each of his first two years, and the team just went out and signed Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith in the offseason. If early camp returns are any indication, the additional competition has lit a fire under Agholor. He’s been drawing rave reviews from anyone who has seen him practice, and former Eagles’ WR Mike Quick said Nelson is the most talented WR on the roster. Rumors have started swirling that the team is shopping slot WR Jordan Matthews. Obviously it’s tough to buy into Nelson given the track record, but if the owner isn’t factoring the camp hype into his asking price, it might be worth it to take a flier on that camp hype being real.

Will Fuller: I mention Fuller here because you may be able to get him at a discount after his broken collarbone. I’m not a huge fan of his game, but the Texans like what he can do as a field-stretcher. He was targeted 92 times as a rookie, and his efficiency will hopefully get better with Brock Osweiler gone. I don’t expect that he will be a perennial WR2 or better, but his speed will make him an asset in best-ball leagues. I don’t know that he’ll ever reach ‘big hit’ status in the chart above, but I’d be willing to bet he’s at least a ‘hit’.

Guys I’m avoiding:

Laquon Treadwell: Treadwell was active for 9 games last season, and managed just one catch on 3 targets. He battled through nagging injuries, and already has a leg injury in training camp again this year. He was criticized for his clocked speed at the combine (4.64 40-yard dash) by the draftnik crowd, and he’s failed to make much of an impact as a pro. It doesn’t bode well for Laquon that Jarius Wright is getting higher praise that he is in camp. Treadwell may eventually make good on his draft slot, but it’s not a bet I want to make at this point.

Kevin White: After missing his entire rookie season with nagging foot issues, White came back last year and turned 9 targets per game into 9.65 PPR fantasy points per game in the first 4 weeks before being lost to injury yet again. White ranked 13th in the league in targets per game, but finished outside of the top 60 WRs in terms of points per game despite that volume. He finished behind players like Brandon LaFell, Eddie Royal, Tavon Austin, and Eli Rogers. While White is listed as a starter entering this preseason, the team did bring in veterans Kendall Wright, Victor Cruz, Markus Wheaton, and Rueben Randle to challenge for playing time. Cameron Meredith is locked in at the other starting spot. Even if White manages to stay healthy, I don’t think he ever realizes the potential that got him drafted in the first round.

Phillip Dorsett: Dorsett’s career seems likely to have a similar arc to Darrius Heyward-Bey’s. He was over-drafted due to his blazing speed, but didn’t have the nuance of the position down. He may become a better route runner with years of experience, but his real chance to become a fantasy stud will have passed him by before that happens. He saw his opportunities regress as the season went on last year. He was targeted just once in 3 of the final 5 games last year after seeing at least 3 in every other game of the season, and he has no clear path to get above TY Hilton or Donte Moncrief on the depth chart. I would have a hard time holding Dorsett as anything more than an end of the roster flier at this point.

2nd Round Picks

There isn’t any noticeable trend in the second round that is easy to exploit. Second round WRs from power-5 schools have been a little worse than a 50-50 bet to find their way to 800 yards in a season. There isn’t much you can do with that to make a strong determination on Curtis Samuel or JuJu Smith-Schuster. Typically, non-power-5 WRs selected in the second round have been a bad bet, with just 3 of 12 reaching the 800-yard mark. Twelve is a pretty small sample size to work with, so that doesn’t necessarily mean Zay Jones and Tyler Boyd are doomed. The signing of Anquan Boldin won’t help Zay’s year one outlook though, just as the John Ross pick won’t help Boyd. The one recommendation I would make with a wide receiver drafted in the second round is this:

Buy Davante Adams: As I mentioned above, there are just 3 small school receivers drafted in the 2nd round since 2000 that have eclipsed 800 receiving yards in a season. The first two to do it were Greg Jennings and Vincent Jackson. Those two receivers have put together seven WR1 seasons and another three WR2 seasons between them. The third to do it was Adams. Typically, when a smaller school receiver picked in the 2nd round shows he belongs in the NFL, he goes on to do big things. Here are the players that haven’t hit 800 yards: Aaron Dobson, Brian Quick, Titus Young, Donnie Avery, Jerome Simpson, Dexter Jackson, Darius Watts, Tyrone Calico, and Todd Pinkston. Any of those jump out at you as productive fantasy assets? Davante has already shown that he belongs after posting a WR1 season last year, and he has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Rodgers has been a top-2 fantasy quarterback in 7 of his 9 seasons as the Packers’ starter. If you have an Adams owner in your league that thinks his breakout 2016 was a fluke (or is just a Jeff Janis truther), you should be making him or her an offer.

3rd Round Picks

The 3rd round is definitely the one that had the most interesting trend that I found in this research. Just 16% of the power-5 conference receivers selected in the 3rd round have managed to put up 800 yards in a season. There have been fewer WRs from those power conferences to hit that mark (9) than guys from non-P5 schools to do so (10), despite having 2.3X as many WRs selected (55 to 24). The most rational reason I can come up for this trend is that NFL scouting departments do a better job of evaluating players from the power conferences. They have a clearer picture of which receivers are the best among that group, and they tend to be off the board before the 3rd round. They aren’t as successful at evaluating the non-P5 receivers. They haven’t seen them against elite competition as regularly, and have to do more projecting. As a result, those receivers from smaller conferences are more likely to fall through the cracks and slip into the 3rd round. While this doesn’t mean that a power conference WR selected in the 3rd round can’t be a fantasy asset, it’s not a bet I want to make unless I’m pretty sure on that player. Here are a few notable WRs that fall into this category from the past three years:

Braxton Miller, Leonte Carroo, Tyler Lockett, Jaelen Strong, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, Ty Montgomery, ArDarius Stewart, Chris Godwin, and Amara Darboh

If we throw out Ty Montgomery (switched to running back and is unlikely to ever hit 800 receiving yards), that leaves 9 players in this group. None have reached 800 yards in a season yet, and based on the trends, only 1 or 2 are likely to ever get to that number. There are some names on that list that I like. I think ArDarius Stewart can have a big impact with Enunwa injured in New York. Chris Godwin has been flashing in Bucs camp. Tyler Lockett has been incredibly efficient in his first 2 seasons, and Chris Conley is part of a pretty wide open depth chart behind Tyreek Hill. If you’re going to take a shot on any of this list, I would go with one of those 4, but it hasn’t been a high percentage bet since 2000. It might be worth dealing them if any of your league mates are high on one of these guys.

The small school players have been much more successful when picked in the 3rd. 41.7% of them have put up 800 yards in a season, and over 45% have been targeted 100+ times in a season. Those are pretty high odds of success when you’re likely talking about a late 2nd round rookie pick or later. There haven’t been many of these guys picked in the 3rd round in the past few years (just TY Hilton, John Brown and Dri Archer from 2012-2016), but there are 5 of them that were drafted in 2017. Here are the non-P5 receivers drafted in the 3rd round this year:

Cooper Kupp, Taywan Taylor, Carlos Henderson, Kenny Golladay, and Chad Williams

With this group, it’s basically a choose-your-flavor kind of situation…

Kupp is a possession receiver who is slotted to start in LA as of now. His QB is a concern, but they brought in an offensive-minded head coach who will hopefully bring out the best of Jared Goff.

Taylor has flashed in training camp, but he’s going to be about 5th in the pecking order for targets at best this year, and will likely never pass Corey Davis to become the team’s WR1. He’s a guy you would have to stash with hopes that his role increases as veterans like Delanie Walker, Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews move on.

Carlos Henderson is set to be the slot receiver in Denver this year, but Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have been consistent target hogs. Since Sanders joined the team in 2014, he and Thomas have combined for 325, 313, and 281 targets in each season. Meanwhile, only one other teammate in that span has seen more than 65 targets in a season (Owen Daniels with 77 in 2015). With Sanders already at 30 years old, and Demaryius turning 30 in December, Henderson likely won’t have as long of a wait for relevance as Taywan Taylor, but he’ll still have to wait his turn.

Kenny Golladay probably has the best chance to contribute right away among the group. Kupp may be slated to start, but he’s unlikely to be used a ton in the red zone. The Rams are also going to lean on Todd Gurley quite a bit and will have less passing volume overall than Detroit. Anquan Boldin and his 95 targets & 8 TDs from a year ago have moved on to Buffalo, so Golladay should step in to that spot in the lineup right away. Eric Ebron may absorb some of those targets, but 75-80 is very possible for Golladay, and he has been a red zone weapon so far in camp. Golladay appears to have a bright future, and he has a chance to make a splash as a rookie.

Chad Williams may have the best long-term upside among this group of WRs. He’s certainly going to start off behind Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown on the depth chart this year, and possibly behind JJ Nelson and Jaron Brown as well. The 33-year old Fitzgerald has said that he would like to retire while still playing at a high level. That could be as soon as the end of this season. None of the other receivers on this team profile as a #1 wide receiver, so there will be a void if Fitz retires. Williams has the size and athleticism to develop into that role, and will have the opportunity to be mentored by one of the bests to ever do it in Fitzgerald. If Fitz hangs it up after this year, Williams could have big upside as early as year 2.

4th round – 7th round picks

There isn’t much to say about the late round picks. Fewer than 10% of WRs selected after the 3rd round have managed to record an 800-yard season, regardless of college conference. Luckily, these guys won’t cost you much in a rookie draft, so there isn’t much risk, but the rewards are also limited. Here are some of the more productive guys to come from those rounds in the last several years: Stefon Diggs, Marvin Jones, Rishard Matthews, Martavis Bryant, Cecil Shorts, Mike Williams (Syracuse), Brian Hartline, and Jeremy Kerley. The best advice I can give on these guys is to take your shots on the guys that seem to have the easiest path to early opportunity, and to be vigilant on the waiver wire if a player in this range puts a couple of nice games together. Diggs and Jones could have easily been had for free in most leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for now. Hopefully this information will help you as you try to determine which young wide receivers you should be targeting in dynasty leagues and which are better left alone. Obviously every player is different, and these trends aren’t black-and-white, but they should at least give you another piece of information to consider as you evaluate the young wide receivers. Be sure to check back all season to read the Rookie Report each week for recommendations of what to do with the rookies on your fantasy squad. I’ll sign off the way I do every article: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Details: Written by Jason Evans; Created: 03 January 2017

Hello everyone! The playoffs are upon us and that doesn't mean that fantasy football has to end! Please see our rankings below for the entirety of the playoffs (rest of season). Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell top the overall rankings here, which only begs the question: how far will the Steelers get in the postseason? Interestingly enough, the next pair on the board is Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, from the Atlanta Falcons.

Obviously, we here at drinkfive.com think highly of both Atlanta and Pittsburgh going into the Wild Card week. Tom Brady and the New England Defense sit on top of their respective categories, however - as you can never discount Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Although we don't rank any of the Dallas Cowboys as #1 at their position, it will be hard to beat the regular season darlings at home and we wouldn't shy away from using any of their superstar players in DFS or fantasy playoff leagues next week. Good luck!

Fantasy Football / NFL

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NICK'S PICKS (WEEK 1)

NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Strategy - Week 1

2017 Week 1 Rankings

Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

Replacements for Preseason Injuries

2017 Preseason Rankings

Fantasy Prep: NFL Rule/Player Changes & Updates for 2017