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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

 

 

0 Interceptions

 

For only the second time in his career, Jay Cutler did not thrown an INT in his opening game. This means that next week will be the first time that Cutler takes a snap in Week 3 of an NFL season and doesn't have an INT to his name. OK, fine, this might be a way to pick on Smokin' Jay, but I must tip my cap to him and the Dolphins for winning on the road after the surprise Week 1 bye. 230 yards and 1 TD isn't going to blow anyone's socks off, but as I noticed during the game, it's still the same old Cutler. He's still throwing off his back foot, airing it out and getting lucky as hell from time to time. It's nice having tall receivers.

 

25% Field Goal Percentage

 

The Chargers new kicker, YoungHoe Koo doesn't even have a success rate that would keep you employed in baseball. The rookie kicker is just 1-for-4 in field goal attempts this season. He's missed or had blocked two at the end of games that would have either tied or give his team the lead with time running out. Both are only from 44 yards away, and his other miss is from 43. His only make has come from 41 yards, and to his credit, he has made 5/5 extra points. Making all your extra points is getting hard to come by in this league. It must be rough being a Chargers fan now. On top of playing in a tiny stadium that people are making fun of, having an owner people poke fun at, you now have to worry about kicking problems on your 0-2 team (which has just a 12% shot at making the playoffs, historically).

 

20+ Fantasy Points

 

This week felt a lot more like a normal week of fantasy football. There were 12 players that scored at least 20 points in standard scoring this week, and 9 of them are owned in at least 96% of Yahoo leagues. So, I guess go pick up C.J. Anderson if your league has been asleep? Lots of big names went back to their normal productive selves, but a few new names might stick around a bit. Trevor Siemian leads the league in passing TD's and has the most fantasy points for QB's (second overall). He's only owned by 13% of leagues right now! The Broncos look good at home, but I want to see a them on the road before inserting Siemian in my lineup. It is, however, the right time to pick him up off the waiver wire.

 

0.1 Fantasy Points

 

In our drinkfive.com fantasy league, my opponent had her TE break his foot, and he still scored 10x the points that my TE scored. Greg Olsen's 1 point was an order of magnitude larger than Jimmy Graham's 0.1 points. The tight end position is about to get a lot thinner as two of the main starters are looking like they aren't options going forward. Olsen's broken foot definitely leaves him out of your lineup, and Graham has some knee issues and is playing on Thursday night this week. It's time to scour the waiver wire for a new TE, thankfully, there are actually several options out there for you.

 

14 Seconds

 

At the end of the first half in the Patriots-Saints game, Tom Brady was tackled with just 14 seconds to go and no time-outs. Bad clock management some of you may say? Not from Belichick; he got his team ready for this. The field goal unit scrambled onto the field and snapped the ball with 2 seconds to spare and gave the Pats a 30-13 lead going into halftime. The poise and calmness that this all happened with made it seem like they planned on just this exact situation coming up on this very drive. It makes you wonder if Belichick told the special teams that they're not allowed to have timeouts anymore, and if they screw it up, they don't get to eat on Thursdays.

 

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Week 1 is in the books and 241 entries have been eliminated from the 1005 total entrants, mostly at the hands of the Patriots' and Texans' surprising losses. If you listened to me last week, you are one of the survivors. Both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills had rather uneventful victories in week 1, which is exactly what I am looking for in my picks. Easy games I didn't even need to watch. Cleveland scored a late touchdown to make the game seem closer than it was with a final of 21-18 against the Steelers.

 

I laid out my winning strategy in the first article and will continue to reinforce that plan in week 2. So I pull out my schedule and see that the Jets travel to Oakland this week. There is my top pick. The Raiders are considered serious Super Bowl contenders and the Jets will be buying tickets to the game. I wonder if the Jets and Giants combined that they could make one good team? Anyways, I expect the Raiders to get an early lead and then give the Jets a Keith Richards sized dose of Marshawn Lynch. I will be interested to see in the coming weeks if the Raiders defense remains as impressive as they were against the Titans in week 1. If they truly are that much better than the rest of the league we better look out.

 

My Runner up pick goes to the Baltimore Ravens coming home to face the Cleveland Browns. Baltimore impressed me in week 1, shutting out the Bengals in Cincinnati 20-0. Deshone Kizer actually put up decent numbers for a first start going 20-30, 1TD, 1INT with an added rushing TD. But judging by the yards per rush and without watching most of this game I assume Pittsburgh loaded the box and focused on stopping the run and making Kizer beat them with his arm. Baltimore's stout defense will do the same this week. Can they shut out the state of Ohio? If the Ravens figure out how to score some points they can be a dangerous team down the stretch.

 

I expect Seattle to get a lot of picks this week as well as being 13.5 point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers. While the 49ers were handled easily 23-3 last week at the hands of the Carolina Panthers, Seattle was very lackluster in my opinion of a game a watched basically start to finish. Their defense did well against the Packers but their inability to score TDs in the red-zone is a concern for me. This is a trap game to me and I would take the 9ers with the points all day.

 

As you can see by the 241 dropping out after the first week, there is no need to get cute at the beginning of the season. I went with the 1st and 3rd highest point favorites this week. Book a win, and make the easy pick. Much like a poker tournament, you can't win the whole thing on the first hand.

 

Cheers,
Drink Five!

 

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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally been able to watch meaningful pro football again, unless you, like Jim Carrey, believe nothing has any meaning. It was an exciting first week, with several strong rookie performances. There were hits and misses from me on what to do in the opening week with those rookies, but that’ll be the case every week, and overall I’ll take last week’s results.

 

I was spot on with the top-5 picks of most rookie drafts (Corey Davis, Dalvin, Fournette, McCaffrey and Mixon), but I was off on Kenny Golladay and was way too tepid with my expectations for Kareem Hunt who wound up the top scoring fantasy player. I had Tarik Cohen pegged as a sleeper for week 1, but not even I expected the outburst he put up against Atlanta. My biggest miss of the week was probably Zay Jones, who I had pegged for 5+ catches, and he wound up with just 1-for-21 on 4 targets. I should get a clearer picture of who these guys are as the year progresses, but I’d chalk up week one as a success. Let’s dive in to what to expect in week 2…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Phi.): I liked Hunt as a season-long option, but was unsure about how he would do last week. I was wrong to be unsure. After fumbling on his first touch of the game, he was fantastic and dismantled the Patriots’ defense. He might never duplicate the point total he put up on opening night, but there is no way you can sit him after what he did in New England. You should temper expectations a little bit with his matchup against Philly. The Eagles allowed the 12th fewest RB points last year, but Hunt should have no problem returning RB2 value this week.

 

RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Ten.): The Jaguars are going to run Fournette until the wheels fall off. He handled 29 touches last week (20 in the first half!), and had success against a stout Texans defensive front. The Titans gave up 76 yards to Marshawn Lynch in week one, and Lynch hadn’t played in an NFL game since January of 2016. If Leonard approaches the kind of volume he saw in week one, he’s got a solid shot of ending as an RB1 again.

 

cooper kupp2

 

WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. Was.): The Rams will likely have to throw a bit more this week if Todd Gurley continues to be as ineffective as he was on Sunday, and Kupp was targeted  a team-high 6 times in the opener. Sammy Watkins will likely be shadowed by Josh Norman in this matchup, and Washington ranked 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat on throws to #2 receivers last season. They also just gave up 6-86-1 to Nelson Agholor last weekend. I like Kupp more than I did in week 1, when he posted 4-76-1. He should be targeted early and often, and he could easily wind up as a WR2 this week, especially in PPR leagues.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB Dalvin Cook, MIN (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Cook was impressive in the opener, but it was against a bad Saints defense that ranked 23rd in run defense DVOA a season ago. The Steelers ranked 11th in that same stat, and they held Isaiah Crowell to a 17-33 rushing line on Sunday. Cook should still be involved in the passing game, but I’d be surprised if he approached the 137 scrimmage yards he posted on Monday night. Volume will keep him in play as a RB2/Flex option, and you’re probably starting him, but there some reason for pause this week.

 

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Week one was both good and bad for McCaffrey. On the one hand, he was given 18 touches and was an integral part of the offense as promised. On the other hand, Jonathan Stewart remained the goal line back and saw more touches than CMC, and the game script won’t always be positive enough for them to combine for 38 touches. Head coach Ron Rivera has already talked about not wanting to “wear his batteries out,” so I’m not sure I’d expect the volume to continue at that level. This week CMC gets to face the Bills, who were really bad against RBs last year (allowed 5th most points), but they did hold the Jets’ backs to 13-38 on the ground and 8-37 through the air on 11 targets in week one. Granted, it’s the Jets, who are terrible. At the end of the day, McCaffrey’s outlook in week 2 is similar to what it was in week one. He’s an upside RB2/Flex option with a plus matchup. His speed and playmaking ability gives him week-winning potential, but he could just put up another 80 scoreless yards.

 

RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Cohen was a shock to even most Bears fans last weekend, and while his results may have been due to a sweet matchup with the Falcons, he’s clearly going to be a featured part of the offense going forward. The Bears are desperate for playmakers in the passing game, especially with Kevin White done for the season yet again, and Jordan Howard demonstrated once again that it won’t be him after dropping a game-tying touchdown in the closing seconds. Enter Tarik Cohen, who turned a ridiculous 12 targets into 8-47-1, while also rushing for 66 yards. He isn’t going to put up those numbers every single week, but his skill set and the way the Bears will deploy him reminds me a bit of Dion Lewis from two years ago with the Patriots. Before getting hurt that year, Lewis averaged 5 catches and 89 scrimmage yards per game, and he scored 4 TDs in 7 games. If Cohen continues to be used like this and stays healthy, he has legitimate top-15 RB upside in PPR leagues. He gets another favorable matchup this week against Tampa Bay. We haven’t seen the Bucs yet this season, but last year they allowed the 11th most fantasy points to RBs, and ranked 26th in run defense DVOA and 26th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. I doubt he sees another 12 targets, but Cohen is on the RB2 map in PPR leagues and a flex option in standard formats.

 

RB Chris Carson, SEA (Wk. 2: vs. SF): Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has already said that he expects Thomas Rawls to play this week, but I think it’s very possible that he’s eased in. If that’s the case, it’s Carson who would spell him on early downs, not Eddie Lacy. The Seahawks are a 2-touchdown favorite against the 49ers, so Carson would likely see extra work in the case of a blowout, and he impressed in limited opportunities against Green Bay. There is a very low floor here with Rawls back, but Carson is an upside flex option who could be a week-winner if things break his way. The 49ers allowed 3 more points per game to opposing RBs than any other team in the league last year, and allowed 27.8 to the Carolina backs in the opener. They also lost linebacker Rueben Foster to a high ankle sprain in that game. All Carson needs is the opportunity.

 

WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Davis came out with a strong debut after missing the entire preseason, posting 6-69 on a team-high 10 targets, despite playing fewer snaps than Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker. Davis played 42 snaps while Decker played 60 and Matthews played 52. Another week removed from his return, I’d expect Davis to play a higher snap percentage. The matchup is tougher this week, and he may have to lock horns with standout corner Jalen Ramsey. Hopefully he’s able to avoid the shadow treatment. The Jaguars allowed the 7th fewest points to WRs in 2016. Given the tough scenario, a repeat of last week’s numbers would be a successful day, even with an increased snap count.

 

WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 2: @NYG): Golladay was a big-time performer in week one, with a 4-69-2 line while splitting WR3 snaps with TJ Jones. I’d expect that split to move even more in favor of Golladay going forward (Kenny outsnapped TJ 44-18 in week 1). Unfortunately for BabyTron (thanks @LateRoundQB), a repeat of Sunday’s performance will be hard to come by against the stingy Giants secondary. The Giants ranked 4th in pass defense DVOA last year, and despite struggling to defend the Cowboys last week, they allowed just 2-43 to Dez Bryant on 9 targets. Golladay is a boom-or-bust WR3 option this week.

 

TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): Engram clearly has a prominent role in the Giants’ passing game, and he may actually get better with Odell Beckham back and drawing coverage away. Brandon Marshall struggled mightily in the opener, so Engram may get more red zone opportunities than expected. The Lions coughed up the 3rd most TE points last year, so Engram should make for a reasonable streaming option this week whether OBJ is back in the lineup or not.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 2: @Bal.): Kizer had some good moments in an impressive debut vs. Pittsburgh, but this week he goes on the road to face a defense that forced 5 turnovers from Andy Dalton last Sunday. The best-case scenario for Kizer would be a repeat of last week, but I think it’s more likely that he takes a step back. He’s just a low-end QB2 option with upside this week.

 

QB DeShaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 2: @Cin.): No one was surprised that Watson was forced into action in week 1, but he didn’t look ready for prime time just yet. He posted just 4.44 yards per attempt and turned the ball over twice in a blowout loss. I don’t expect things to get much better this week. He’s battling an ankle injury, has a short week with a Thursday night game, and the Texans o-line should continue to struggle. The returns for Watson were mixed in week 1, but he should be avoided in week 2.

 

RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 2: vs. Hou.): The Texans struggled to contain Jacksonville’s rushing attack on Sunday, but they look like a tough run defense on paper and Mixon didn’t exactly impress in his limited week 1 role. He led the Bengals’ backfield with 11 touches, but totaled just 24 yards. The touches were split fairly evenly between Mixon, Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Until Mixon is able to separate himself from the other 2, this looks like a situation to avoid.

 

RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Ty Montgomery proved this is his backfield in week 1. TyMo played 90% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps, and after posting PFF’s highest pass protection grade among RBs for the week, I’d expect that workhorse role to continue for him going forward. Williams received just 2 carries in the opener, and at this point likely needs an injury to Montgomery to return value any time soon.

 

RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 2: vs. Ari.): The Colts offense was predictably a mess while helmed by Scott Tolzien last weekend, and although Mack scored a TD, he also had 9 carries for zero yards outside of his longest carry of the day (24 yards). He also only had 4 touches in the first 2 and a half quarters of the game, and didn’t see extended run until the Colts were being blown out. They may very well get blown out again this week and turn to Mack in garbage time, but it’s hard to bank on. The Cardinals didn’t play well as a team last week, but they did hold the Lions’ RBs to 58 yards on 25 carries. The Lions don’t boast a great run offense, but neither do the Colts. Mack should be left on the pine.

 

WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 2: @Car.): It was promising that Tyrod Taylor looked better in the opener than he did in the preseason, but disheartening that Zay was out-targeted by both Charles Clay and Shady McCoy. The Bills will be a low-volume passing attack all year, and 4 targets won’t cut it for fantasy purposes for Zay. There will be game scripts that call for more passing, but you’d like to see more of a connection between Zay and Tyrod before running Jones out there in fantasy lineups.

 

WR Taywan Taylor, TEN (Wk. 2: @Jax.): There may be even fewer snaps for Taylor this week than the 6 offensive snaps he played last week now that Davis is closer to 100%. He did manage 2-14 on those 6 snaps, which is nice efficiency, but he belongs firmly planted on the bench until his role increases.

 

WR ArDarius Stewart, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Oak.): It’ll be tough to consider any Jets pass catcher until the offense demonstrates they can throw the ball. Stewart may lose snaps to Jeremy Kerley this week, and was mostly a non-factor on Sunday while Kerley was a healthy scratch, posting 2-10 on 5 targets. It’s going to be an ugly season for the Jets.

 

TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Howard should be used mostly as a blocker early in the year, with Cameron Brate serving more in the receiving TE role. The Bears allowed just the 22nd most points to opposing TEs a year ago, and didn’t allow a single target to Austin Hooper until a long TD on a broken play in the 4th quarter. Howard is a dynasty stash who might not do that much damage in redraft leagues this year.

 

TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 2: @Bal.): Njoku was targeted just twice in the opener, and this week faces off with a defense that allowed the 7th fewest TE points a season ago and held Tyler Eifert to 1-4 on 1 target on Sunday. You would be best off avoiding Njoku this week.

 

TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 2: @Sea.): The Iowa product showed he was over his hamstring injury with 5 catches in the opener, but the Panthers allowed the 2nd most TE points in the league last year. Seattle allowed the 4th fewest. Kittle will be targeted a handful of times this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to have much success with them.

 

Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Although the Patriots allowed the fewest RB points in the league last year in standard scoring, only the Atlanta Falcons allowed more receptions to the position, and Kansas City’s backs just shredded them in week 1. Kamara led New Orleans RBs in snaps and touches in week 1, and he is likely going to be their primary receiving back. This game could turn into a shootout, so he may increase the 50% snap share he played a week ago. Kamara’s volume is probably too low to trust him as anything more than a flex option in deep PPR leagues, but he could be a great DFS tournament option at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

 

WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): Godwin is strictly a boom-or-bust punt option for DFS tournaments. He’s at least behind Mike Evans and D-Jax on the depth chart, but he might also play fewer snaps than Adam Humphries. His floor for this week is zero points, but he has dazzled in every opportunity he’s been given. He’s been compared to Roddy White by his head coach this preseason, I expect them to try to get Godwin involved a handful of times on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a couple of big plays.

 

TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 2: vs. Was.): Just like last week, the Rams face a defense that was below average against TEs last year (Washington allowed 10th most points to them), and McVay likes to use the position a lot. Everett turned his only target last week into a 39-yard gain. I’d expect him to see a few more targets this week, and is a nice TD dart throw that will cost the minimum in DraftKings.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the tougher lineup decisions you have to make involving your rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report through the week, and make sure to check for any surprise inactives on game day. If you have any questions, or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

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Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking winners, spreads and over/ unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this weekly column, I'll go over every match up and let you in on the deciding factors which will lead me to my winning visions for the week ahead. I'll also throw in the occasional article and words of advice on wagering strategies. But hey, if for some reason any of Nick's picks let you down, I'm cool with you telling your bookie it was all my fault.

 

'CRACKING THE NUT' IN WEEK 2: - This is one week to keep the kids' college funds safe and secure in the bank. Sure, you want to make some wagers, football is here! I know I'm going to seek a little action, but TEMPER, TEMPER, TEMPER all expectations of winning big in week 2. The match-ups are just insanely terrible and the odds of your favorite tickets winning, just won't be there. Normally, I start each new season with a limited bankroll anyway, and then gradually increase my confidence week to week, as teams reveal to me their true identities. It's an okay week for single game wagers, not-so-hot for parlays. GREAT week for voodoo, good luck charms, ancient amulets, talismans(no, the plural is not 'talismen'), trinkets, jujus and zemis. But not rabbit's feet... it's the 21st century and carrying fur-lined animal bones around in your pocket is a little too 'serial killer' for today's scene.

 

WEEK 2 PICKS:

 

HOUSTON TEXANS 20 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS 16 - Going against public opinion here, I actually think Houston will pull this off on the road. The Texans are on the rise, albeit slowly, and will be facing a Cincinnati team in disarray... especially with the confusion in the running attack. Take Houston and the 6 points they're given with the 37.5 under.

 

CLEVELAND BROWNS 13 @ BALTIMORE RAVENS 27 - Cleveland almost pulled off a victory at home against Pittsburgh in week one. With Deshone Kizer at the helm, they were kind of exciting to watch, especially when compared to the Browns of every season I can ever remember. Now even though they will continue to evolve and get better as a team, they will fall short this week on the road against the Ravens. Baltimore simply has more skill and experience on offense. In addition, their defense will create huge problems for a Cleveland team that's perpetually rebuilding. Snag the Ravens with the -8 points and cautiously consider the 39 over.

 

BUFFALO BILLS 20 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS 30 - It's the Panthers' home opener and Cam Newton will most likely be sharper than he was in week 1. The Bills have McCoy, which should keep Carolina's defense busy, but they are a great squad and should hold their own. Other than TE Charles Clay, I don't see many other Buffalo players, besides Shady and a decent defense, that will be a factor. Go with Carolina and the -7.5 points and the 43 over. 

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS 23 @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 13 - What's there to say? David Johnson won't be playing for the Cardinals any time soon and there will be a running back by committee. But, they have Larry Fitzgerald, experience, defense and coaching. The Colts still suck in a major way, especially without Andrew Luck, so this shouldn't be much of a contest. I would give more points to Arizona, but I want to see how efficient they are running the ball with their new personnel first. Definitely take the Cardinals and the -7, but lean towards the 44 under.

 

TENNESSEE TITANS 20 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 16 - The Jaguars lost their best receiver for the season in Allen Robinson due to injury and Blake Bortles is not that great. The only bright spot is rookie RB Leonard Fournette. The Titans looked a little rough around the edges last week at home, but the Raiders seemed like they had something to prove with the return of Marshawn Lynch to the NFL. I think Marcus Mariota will find more consistency with his receivers and hopefully the running game can find the holes. They should eke this one out in the end, so prudently take the Titans and the -2 along with the 43.5 under.

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 19 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 37 - I don't need the Chiefs to beat the Patriots to let me know they're a quality team. This one should be an easy victory for Kansas City. They don't give up many points to opposing teams at home and Alex Smith has new toys to play with. I'm also not an Alshon Jeffery fan of the Eagles and think Nelson Agholor's week 1 performance was fluky. I'm a fan of Philly RB L. Blount, but not this week. Take K.C. and the -5.5 with a sh*t-eating grin on your face and go with the 47.5 over.

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 37 @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 27 - A lot of people are thinking 'shootout' in this match-up of legendary gunslingers. All I know is that Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots probably don't lose two in a row. There should be many points scored, especially against the Saints' horrible defense. It would be safe to put the flow down on the Patriots and -6.5 they're given, and there shouldn't be a doubt going with the 55.5 over.

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS 27 @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS 34 - Another game worthy of the 'shootout' classification. The Vikings proved they have a legitimate RB in Dalvin Cook, even though he played against that spongy line of the New Orleans Saints. QB Sam Bradford, along with wideouts Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, seem to have found a rhythm. However, Ben Roethlisberger is one of the winningest QBs at home over the last handful of years and has weapons galore in Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant. Not only that, the classic Steel Curtain defense is on the rise, especially with the addition of rookie linebacker T.J. Watt. This contest will most likely be a close one, but go with Pittsburgh and the -5.5 paired with the 45.5 over.

 

CHICAGO BEARS 20 @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 30 - The Bears now have the exciting play of rookie RB Tarik Cohen added to the mix. But unlike Atlanta who didn't expect to see that much of him, Tampa Bay will definitely prepare for a possible 'heavy' workload. Other than the running game, Chicago has nothing worth putting money on and I just see Jameis Winston and the rest of the Buccaneers rolling on the Bears. No brainer going with Tampa and the -7 matched with the 43 over.

 

MIAMI DOLPHINS 16 @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 37 - The Chargers are going to whoop some Jay Cutler and Dolphin ass this coming Sunday. Even though Miami's new QB has a very good receiving core, he has to face a tough defense that includes the pass rushing tandem of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. Not only that, Jay Ajayi was just added to the injury report. Even though he is expected to play, his usage might be limited, affecting how well they can move the ball with the ground game. Los Angeles has Philip Rivers, great receivers and a Melvin of their own: pass catching stud RB Melvin Gordon. Contain the party in your pants when you grab the Chargers and -4.5 points. The 45 over should be a pleasure walk as well.

 

NEW YORK JETS 9 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 44 - This is one game I feel very confident throwing some green on. The hapless Jets have no chance at all and the Raiders will give them a west coast beat-down. All I need to say is Josh McCown/ Matt Forte vs. Derek Carr/ Marshawn Lynch/ Amari Cooper & Michael Crabtree. Double down on the black and silver this week. Taking Oakland and -14 is as good as a nocturnal emission, while the Raiders should hit the 43.5 over all on their own.

 

DALLAS COWBOYS 16 @ DENVER BRONCOS 20 - Even though Dallas beat the Giants last week, they didn't put up that many points, especially with New York's defense being on the field for a lopsided amount of time. Now going into Denver and having to face the 'No Fly Zone' secondary, I just don't think Dak and Dez have the chemistry to get it done, especially since Bryant will be matched against CB Aqib Talib. With the passing game shut down, the Broncos pass rush should have an easier time handling Ezekiel Elliot. On the other side we have young QB Trevor Siemian and the receiving duo of Thomas/ Sanders. C.J. Anderson is running the rock and should keep Dallas' D on their toes. I'm going against the critics on this one and suggesting you take Denver and the +2.5 points. Pull the lever on the 42.5 under.

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS 20 @ LOS ANGELES RAMS 26 - I'm liking the new Wade Phillips' Rams defense. Sure, they looked amazing against the sorry Colts last week, but they are a ferocious group, and only going to get better as the season moves on. The QB play of Jared Goff is coming together as well as that of target Cooper Kupp. This will be a sloppy game but the Rams should pull it off. I would have no problems taking Los Angeles and the -2.5 but would stick with the 46 point under.

 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 6 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 37 - I'd only want to watch this game if I was a Seahawks' fan. It's going to be ugly and one-sided. Seattle didn't score many points against Green Bay last week, but they played an Aaron Rodgers'-led team in Lambeau Field. This week will be different as they are home against one of the worst teams in the NFC... in which the acronym this game means NO F*CKING CONTEST. The Seahawks all day with the -13.5 but take the 42.5 over with a grain of salt.

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS 34 @ ATLANTA FALCONS 30 - Another game including premiere quarterbacks. Definitely a lot of points will be had and it will come down to the wire. Emotions will be running high in Atlanta because of the first game in their new stadium, but I'm going against public opinion again and siding with the Pack to pull this one out of their ass(that kinda rhymed). Green Bay with the +2.5 points their given is my vote along with the 54 over.

 

DETROIT LIONS 20 @ NEW YORK GIANTS 27 - I'm not believing the Lions' hype and not giving up the Giants just yet. Eli will get it going, even though it may take a few star players(you know who I'm talking about) to help chip in. He is a two-time Superbowl champion, so I have faith in him at home on Monday Night Football. I really don't see any highlight reel action in this game, so going to bed early and missing the fourth quarter shouldn't be an issue. All day Giants and the -3.5 points stitched to a 43.5 quilted under. 

 

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS: 

WINNERS: 9-6

SPREAD:   7-8

U/O:         6-9

 

 

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A lot of fantasy players out there took some serious damage in week 1 with major injuries to players like David Johnson and Allen Robinson, but we must soldier on with the season! Often times, winning teams are determined through team management and good pickups throughout the year, rather than solely on the merits of their originally drafted players. Standouts in week 2 for me include Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, Kerwynn Williams, Tevin Coleman, Sammy Watkins, Adam Thielen, Eric Decker, Jared Cook, Younghoe Koo, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 



 

 

 
2017 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

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Well, week 1 is already in the books and if you are in multiple leagues, I would guess you've been hit with an injury! Notable fantasy related injuries this week include David Johnson, Danny Woodhead, and the focus of this post, Allen Robinson.

 

Now before we dive into who could pick up the slack on your fantasy team, let’s look at what we lost. After a monster 2015 (80/1400, 14TDs), Robinson put up disappointing numbers in 2016. 73 receptions, 883 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Many experts were expecting a bounce back year and I am sure many teams were drafting AROB as their WR2 in the 4th or 5th round. With a Jaguars team that is more focused on pounding the ball, I expect to see stacked boxes forcing Bortles to throw downfield.

So we've determined a clear void in targets, who is going to step up? The two players getting the most discussion are Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns.

 

Marqise Lee is expected to be the new WR1 on the Jags and has an opportunity to prove himself. Last year, Lee put up 63/851, 3TDs (He even threw a TD to Blake Bortles on Christmas Eve against the Titans). I was very excited about Lee as a prospect when he was drafted out of USC in 2014 but he has yet to get the spotlight and showcase his talents. He has always been buried on the depth chart and was mostly on the field for 3WR sets. Lee is not a go-up-and-get-it type of receiver, but he does handle the ball well in traffic and is a good deep threat.

 

Allen Hurns should be no stranger to fantasy owners. In 2015, Hurns went 64/1031, 5TDs, giving fantasy players two respectable WRs to have on the Jaguars (crazy, I know). Last year, Hurns put up 35/477, 3TDs (only played 11 games).

During the preseason this year, the Jags were shopping Hurns and he didn’t draw much interest. There was speculation that he was going to be the 4th or 5th receiver on the charts behind DeDe Westbrook (IR) and Keelan Cole (Rookie from D2 Kentucky-Wesleyan). Hurns has a history with Bortles and I expect them to have the best chemistry of the available players.

 

Overall this is a poor place to be for the Jags and as a desperate fantasy owner. Of the two, I would lean toward Hurns being a better fantasy asset for the weeks to come. He is a bigger body and has a slightly better track record then Lee. I expect Lee to be more of a possession receiver with his value going to PPR leagues. Hurns will be more of a TD target when defenses are stacking the box in the red zone.

 

WRs I would target this week before Hurns and Lee would be: Cooper Kupp (26% owned), Kenny Golladay (17% owned), and Kendall Wright (15% owned). Kupp being my favorite WR option of the week.

 

TLDR: Avoid the Jags WRs and look elsewhere for your WR replacement. Jags are a run first team and I expect their defense to keep them in more games this year so we will not get those glorious garbage points like in years past.

 

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I feel that last week I should have stressed the fact that it was the start of the season. We all need reminding that football is known for its parity and anyone can beat anyone when the slate is wiped clean.

 

 

…or any other excuse I can throw out for being incorrect on both the 16 and 15 point lines – thanks Pats and Texans!

 

 

It’s OK though, we did pretty good for the rest of the week. Plus, now that we have a week’s worth of examples (except for the Florida based teams), we should be even better this week!

 

 

Week 2 – HERE WE GO!!!!

 

 

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

 

 

16 – OAKLAND over New York Jets – The Raiders defense may look like the ’85 Bears in this game! (side note – can’t tell you how happy I am to see the light at the end of the tunnel that is that damn baseball field the Raiders play on in the first quarter of the season!)

 

 

15 – SEATTLE over San Francisco – The Seattle offense was shut down against the Packers Sunday. They will be looking to make a statement against their former rival.

 

 

14 – BALTIMORE over Cleveland – The Browns looked a bit impressive in week 1, but so did Baltimore, and I am going to need to see more from Cleveland before I have any sort of road confidence in them.

 

 

13 – CAROLINA over Buffalo – It was a luck of the schedule draw for the Bills to start 1-0 this year. They won’t be undefeated after this week.

 

 

12 – New England over NEW ORLEANS – The Saints dismal defense just got lit up by Sam Bradford…SAM BRADFORD! What do you think an angry Tom Brady is going to do against them?

 

 

11 – KANSAS CITY over Philadelphia – Philly looked good in a week 1 road division win. But dear lord the Chiefs looked amazing! They would be higher if it weren’t for the Eric Berry injury. That may be what keeps them from the Super Bowl this year.

 

 

10 – Arizona over INDIANAPOLIS – Yes the Cardinals lost in Detroit. Yes the Cardinals lost David Johnson last week. But did you SEE how bad the Colts are with Scott Tolzien under center? Plus, their backup option is Jacoby Brissett? No worries for Arizona here.

 

 

9 – TAMPA BAY over Chicago – The only reason this game isn’t towards the top of the board is due to the uncertainty in the state of Florida right now.

 

 

8 – Washington over LOS ANGELES RAMS – The Rams got off to a good start, but this Redskins offense is just a bit better than the Colts.

 

 

7 – PITTSBURGH over Minnesota – Unfortunately for the Vikings they are not able to play the Saints defense every week.

 

 

6 – Houston over CINCINNATI – The Bengals were shutout in their week 1 home opener. Could this be the start of the rebuilding period on Cincy?

 

 

5 – Dallas over DENVER – I feel like this should be higher, but there is something in the back of my mind telling me that the Broncos may make this more of a game than it should be.

 

 

4 – Green Bay over ATLANTA – My BOLD PREDICTION this week is that THE PACKERS WILL REPRESENT THE NFC IN THE SUPERBOWL. In order to do so, they are going to need to win games like this one.

 

 

3 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Detroit – I really don’t think that the Giants are the team that we saw on Sunday Night…thought they could be.

 

 

2 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Miami – It took less than four minutes for a ref to call them San Diego on Monday. This game will be just as forgetful. I mean, the Chargers will be playing in a soccer stadium for their first few LA years.

 

 

1 – JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee – After an impressive week 1, the Jags deserve to be picked this week. Though they still deserve to be on the one point line … for now.

 

 

 

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statistically insignificant header image

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.

 

239 Yards from Scrimmage

 

Kareem Hunt had a hell of a game on Thursday night, after an inauspicious start to the game. Thankfully, Andy Reid stuck with his rookie and he broke the record for the most yards in a debut game since the merger in 1970. Hunt's performance included 3 touchdowns and landed him the top fantasy points spot in Week 1. His teammate Alex Smith finished second, putting up a very un-Alex Smith like 368 yards and 4 TD. Both players are the only ones to score above 30 points in both standard and PPR formats, topping a rather pedestrian fantasy football Sunday to start the season.

 

2 of the top 10 ADP

 

Only two of the top 10 ADP players scored in double digits yesterday. Antonio Brown put up 18.2 points, followed by LeSean McCoy with 15.9. Granted, two of the top 10, Ajayi and Evans, were on that always fun Week 1 bye, but a lot of big names really struggled. Bell & Johnson had all of 55 yards on 21 carries between the two of them. Maybe Melvin Gordon can save this group tonight with a good performance, but really, the fantasy stars of this past week were mostly not the guys who we expected.

 

4 of the top 15 Point Scorers

 

Rookies have four of the top 15 point totals so far this week in fantasy. Lead by Hunt, we also saw DeShone Kizer, Kenny Golladay and Leonard Fournette turn in big fantasy performances. While I don't know what to expect long term from the Browns QB, I do expect the other three guys to be impact fantasy players all year long. Other rookies making big contributions to their team were Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey and Tarik Cohen. The league is always getting younger, your fantasy team should reflect that. Don't get stuck using veterans all the time.

 

29:23 TD to INT Ratio

 

I'm sorry that I don't have a better theme than "lackluster" for the first week of the NFL season. So far, NFL passers have a pitiful 29:23 touchdown to interception ratio. This pales in comparison to the past two opening weekends, which were 48:19 in 2016 and 50:31 in 2015. We're down nearly 20 touchdowns to last year's opening count, so maybe Drew Brees and Philip Rivers can help close that gap. I don't expect that Sam Bradford and Trevor Siemian will contribute much to that department, but hey, it's been a strange Week 1.

 

31 Years Old

 

31 Years Old? What is this, some RB playing beyond his years? A WR that refuses to slow down? Nope, it's the Rams new coach, Sean McVay, the youngest coach in NFL history. McVay's Rams had, hands down, the most dominant victory of the day, beating the Colts 46-9. There were a lot of encouraging fantasy players in this game. Jared Goff got his first 300 yard game, Cooper Kupp had 4 receptions and a TD and Todd Gurley had 24 touches and also found the end zone. The Rams defense may be the bright spot, even without Aaron Donald playing this week. Even more credit goes to McVay, who helped orchestrate the return of Donald to the team after his holdout. With him in the lineup next week, the Redskins are going to have a very long day.

 

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Another year another prayer to strike it rich in the NFL survivor pool. While not all possible entries can be accounted for yet, it looks like this years pool will have at least 900 entries. Multiply that by the $22 entry fee and you have a top prize of $19,800! I've decided this year to “Diversify my bonds” as the Wu-Tang financial analysts would say, and bought two entries. Each week I will give you my two picks with a short explanation. 

 

And of course, it will be two picks the entire season because I will not get one wrong.

 

Let me start off with my lock pick that I would choose if only given one option. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 9 point favorites on the road against Deshone Kizer and the Cleveland Browns. A rookie quarterback on a 1-15 team playing a Super Bowl contender in the Steelers spells an easy victory. I was honestly surprised that Cleveland would throw Kizer to the wolves week 1, I'd have let Kessler absorb some punishment early so the kid could survive a season. But maybe Cleveland wants to test him early so they can draft Darnold next year when they go 1-15 again.

 


The Buffalo Bills are my second pick. Not hard to figure out my early season strategy, pick the two biggest favorites of the week and relax. While I actually respect Josh McCown as a professional quarterback, I just think the rest of the team is so devoid of talent that they don't stand a chance. There is also a bonus upside in this pick allowing me to use my Bills pick early. After a few white flag looking trades in the off-season, it appeared they might be in rebuild mode and likely will finish below 500.

 

This might be a common theme this year picking against the Browns and Jets, until I have reason to expect otherwise.

 

 

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Last night was awesome, it really was. I'll throw some extra words out there like, 'killer', 'exciting' or even 'priceless'. Tom Brady is great, I get it. But so is almost everyone linked to the whole Patriots' organization. I mean, if you can't succeed on that team, you shouldn't be playing professional football. Brady has one of the best coaches in the game, he throws behind one of the best O-lines and is given all the weapons he needs. And with exception to last night's contest, the defense is usually stingy.

 

The main issue that has been bothering me all preseason and this week is, the servitude and obedience that the sports media has for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Like I mentioned, I get that Brady and crew are a force in the league and should never be counted out. At the same time, I thought it was rather unfair to treat the #2 seed(Chiefs) of the AFC from last season, like they had no chance to win last night, let alone compete, while virtually pleasuring Tom Brady in the pregame show. The football press likes to gush about how the Pats might actually be 'better' than last season and that Brady might have a career year due the addition of Brandin Cooks, the new deep threat. They very well could be better, but they still have to go out and play a seasons' worth of games in my eyes.

 

What I found both sad and amusing in Thursday night's game, was that NBC sportscaster, Cris Collinsworth, practically wanted to give Brady and the Patriots the Lombardy trophy for the new season, based on what he saw on paper. Then, by the end of the 3rd quarter when it was becoming obvious the Chiefs had the game in hand, he kept breaking into why he thought Kansas City was so good this year and how they were going to be a force to be reckoned with. Collinsworth even mentioned that their playoff loss to the Steelers from last season was only by 2 points, and that the defense didn't surrender a touchdown. He quickly, cleanly and seamlessly jumped from one bandwagon to another, trying to save as much face in the sports journalism world as he could.

 

Does the media over-pleasure Brady because he's very good? Because he's on a great team? He plays for 'Merica's Patriots, the face of the NFL? Or, maybe because he's a handsome man? Maybe it' a combination of the above, obviously knowing a big part of the professional sports media counts on a regular paycheck. I don't know because I don't have issues with celebrity worship and/or putting people on pedestals due to being starstruck. But all the 'over-the-top' Tom Brady loving has become, especially from sports writing professionals, 'sickening'. I understand if your wife or the woman in your office fantasy league thinks Brady is the NFL's Superman, that's how the NFL and media has packaged him. In my mind, I know he's very good. But, I also realize he is 40 and in the twilight of his career. I've never been a fan of his deep ball and judging by last night, he won't be developing one soon... that's why they got Cooks to bail him out on the accuracy. I've never written this much about Tom Brady at once before... now I feel dirty. In conclusion, I think a bunch of writers and sportscasters have been sounding like cheap prostitutes trying to talk up a product already designed to get you off. So the Chiefs' win over the Patriots on opening night was a welcome relief from the Tom Brady and sports media orgy that usually ensues. Hopefully we start seeing more articles NOT about you-know-who in the coming season.

 

 

 

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