Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
42.28 Fantasy Points, 3% Owned
The season has begun, and our first stat is a two-for one special. On Sunday, Ryan Fitzpatrick (or the Amish Rifle, wtf), dominated the Saints in his best game of his career. Fitzmagic (his real nickname, come on guys) put up a career high 417 yards and QB rating of 156.2. 158.3 is perfect, so, ya know, there's room for improvement still. Only owned in 3% of fantasy leagues, Fitz outscored all other QBs by over 10 points to put up a ridiculous 42.28 points from 417 yards, 4 passing TDs, 36 rushing yards and another TD on the ground. Now with his 7th NFL team (he has started at least 3 games for each of those teams), he has established that he and his magnificent beard are planning on sticking around way past week 3. This will not even become a QB controversy if he continues to play at this level.
8 minutes, 21 seconds
The clock still read 6:39 left in the 1st quarter when Tyreek Hill found the end zone for the second time yesterday. A 91 yard punt return, followed by a 58 yard catch and run gave the Chiefs a comfortable 14-3 lead that they held on to the entire game. Known as the king of long touchdowns, Hill added a 1 yard score in the 4th quarter, showing he isn't just a one-trick pony. Even if he was, it's a really damn good trick - constantly outrunning everyone on the field. We must also give props to Patrick Mahomes, putting up 256 yards and 4 TDs while taking only 1 sack and not turning the ball over at all. The Chiefs have really not skipped a beat, all while turning over their OC and starting QB.
36 total touches
In a very Bell-esque performance, James Conner had a massive fantasy game in his first career start. This may be a surprise to some, but the Steelers seemed to know they would be fine without Bell. Maybe it's Conner's talent or maybe it's the stud-filled offensive line, but this makes me wonder why the Steelers tagged Bell in the first place. Bell is a favorite of this column, and I'm not happy with his situation, but this space is for James Conner. Going in to this game, Conner had 32 career touches for 144 yards and 0 TDs. On Sunday, he more than doubled those numbers, putting up 192 yards from scrimmage and scoring twice. He and Alvin Kamara are the only RBs in the top 16 fantasy point scorers, so a game like this only makes the drama with the Steelers more complicated. If only they hadn't TIED the stupid Browns.
13 WRs with 100+ Yards
So far in Week 1, there are 13 WRs who have over 100 receiving yards, led by Michael Thomas's absurd 16 rec for 180 yards. By contrast, there were only 2 RBs who had over 100 rushing yards (Todd Gurley is a good candidate for 100 tonight). This quick view of the week just reinforces something we've said for a long time on drinkfive. Wide receivers start the season much faster than RBs. Traditionally, we find the first half of the seasons is dominated by WRs and the latter half gets taken over by RBs. Not only is this number way in favor of the WRs, but it's guys who are drafted/owned/started. Of the 13 over 100 yards, only 1, DeSean Jackson (26% owned), is under the 68% owned mark. This means that the guys being drafted are producing right away. For the RBs, 5 of the 12 backs who are 100% owned in Yahoo put up single digit (or 0) points. Get those WRs early, turn them in to RBs later in the season. Win championship, rinse, repeat.
-7 Combined Points from 2 Top DSTs
I don't often venture into the DST territory in this column, but yesterday featured two ugly performances by top 8 DSTs based on ownership percentage. The Saints gave up 48 points en route to doing absolutely nothing else, ending with a -4 point score. The Chargers did manage one sack while giving up 38 points and finished with -3 points. This brings up a memory from a draft this year, where I was discussing DSTs with fellow drinkfiver Dave. He said that his favorite defense to draft was the Saints based on their week 1 matchup. I firmly disagreed, insisting that the Chargers were the team to own. Before you call us crazy, we only take DSTs at the end of the draft. This would feel like something to laugh off, but 6 of the other top 9 DSTs did find their way into double digits, and the Rams are on that list and can easily hit that mark tonight.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
Survivor pools, a concept so simple yet devastatingly difficult. Pick one team a week to win outright and you move on to the next week. The only catch you may only use the team once. For the fourth year in a row I'm trying to turn my 20$ into 10,000. I've put two bullets into the chamber once again to double my chances. Will this be the year I make it at least half way through the season?
Last Season all you had to do was pick the team playing the Browns and you were moving on to the next week. This year I think that team could be the Bills, which is why I am taking the Baltimore Ravens in week one. I think Nathan Peterman has thrown more interceptions than completions in his short NFL career and the Ravens defense should have a field day in this one.
My second pick is going to be the New Orleans Saints. They are one of my top picks for teams to win the Super Bowl this season and in week one they go up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs will be led by backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for the first three games of the season because former first overall draft pick Jamis Winston got a little grabby with his uber driver, 0 stars.
Like Peterman, Fitz has at times shown to be an interception machine. The Saints have been building up their defense the last few seasons and are no longer reliant on Drew Brees throwing 4 TDs a game. However I think he does throw for four this game and the Saints run away with an easy one.
Cheers to you all! May your opening NFL weekend be filled with plenty of delicious beer and bottomless nachos. And if you are hung-over on Monday, as Jarvis Landry would say, “Bless em”.
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- Written by David Biggs
Week 1 is finally here! We've had enough time off, right? I, for one, have been looking forward to the opening game of the 2018 season (Falcons at Eagles) for months now, and in the meantime have tweaked my rankings algorithms to continue to provide you with some of the most accurate fantasy football advice available on the web on a weekly basis. This particular week, remove Le'Veon Bell from your lineups and do anything you can to pick up James Conner and play him. He has a lot to prove and may be auditioning on Sunday for a starring role in the Steelers' high-flying offense. Other notable suggested starts include James White, Kenny Stills, Tyler Eifert, and the Tennessee Titans. Good luck and feel free to reach out on Twitter at @drinkfive with your lineup questions. Cheers!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, grueling offseason without football, but week 1 is finally upon us! For those of you who are new here, the Rookie Report is my weekly breakdown of the matchups each of the fantasy relevant rookies will face. Each week I’ll break them down into rookies to start, borderline rookies, and rookies to sit, then I’ll give you a few guys to consider as deep league fill-ins or cheap DFS tournament plays. Week 1 is always one of the toughest to project. It’s hard to know what to expect from players who have never taken a regular season NFL snap, and it’s also tough to know for sure which defenses will regress or improve from one year to the next until we see them on the field. For that reason, week 1 is going to be full of mostly guys to sit and sleepers, but I try to give a little insight as to why each week as well.
Since it’s week 1, I also have a special treat before we get into this week’s matchups. Here’s a look at my top-10 fantasy rookies for 2018:
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG: Barkley is poised to be the Giants’ workhorse back, and barring injury appears to be a lock to finish as one of the top-8 backs in fantasy this year in PPR leagues. He should carry plenty of value in non-PPR leagues as well.
2. Royce Freeman, RB, DEN: Freeman has come on strong through training camp and the preseason, and he is an unexpected player to see here as the #2 rookie. Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel all had higher draft positions, but either due to injury or tougher competition for playing time, they all open the season in worse position than Royce. Freeman looks to be the lead back in Denver from week 1 on, and he should be a low-end RB2 in most formats. Denver’s offense should improve overall with Case Keenum under center.
3. Michael Gallup, WR, DAL: Gallup walks into a wide-open Cowboys’ WR depth chart with plenty of targets available now that Dez and Witten are gone, and he should start on the outside right away. The Cowboys will want to be run-heavy with Ezekiel Elliott, but their defense and banged up o-line could make that challenging. Gallup has WR3 upside this season.
4. DJ Moore, WR, CAR: Moore should start immediately in Carolina, but he’ll face stiffer target competition than Gallup. Greg Olsen returns, Christian McCaffrey is poised for a monster year, and Devin Funchess remains a starter after a breakout campaign in ’17. I trust that Moore is the more talented receiver of he and Gallup, but he’ll be hard-pressed to carve out a fantasy-starter kind of workload.
5. Sony Michel, RB, NE: The Patriots’ backfield is often the bane of many fantasy owners’ existence due to inconsistent usage from week-to-week, but I have faith that Michel has a big role this season. Belichick has never really invested much capital into the position. They’ve always made do with late round draft picks, cast-offs from other teams and undervalued free agents. Mike Gillislee, Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, James White, Jeremy Hill, LeGarrette Blount. None of them have cost much to acquire, which is why it stands out that the Pats used a first round pick to acquire Michel. He may start slowly as he works his way back from a preseason knee injury, but make no mistake, the Patriots think this is a special player and he’ll be involved.
6. Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET: Johnson will likely still have to work his way past Blount to be a fantasy force this year, but Blount hasn’t had much success outside of New England in his career. After investing a first round pick in a nasty run-blocking center, and trading up in the second to get Kerryon, it looks like Johnson has a chance to give the Lions the running game they’ve been seeking for most of the past decade.
7. Anthony Miller, WR, CHI: There are a ton of targets available in Chicago with a fully revamped group of pass catchers in town. Miller should be a factor early in the year, and he could really shine if Allen Robinson falters in his return from his ACL injury from last year. 800 yards and a handful of TDs would be a successful rookie campaign for the Memphis product.
8. Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA: Penny has definitely faltered in training camp after the Seahawks selected him in the first round, but he’ll get his chances as the season gets going. Seattle wants to be much more run-heavy this year, as evidenced by the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer as OC and the offseason investment in Penny and the o-line. Chris Carson will get the first crack at the job, but I’d be surprised if Penny doesn’t push for 200 carries barring an injury.
9. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE: Carlos Hyde as operated as the lead back throughout camp, and Duke Johnson’s 3rd-down role is secure, but Chubb is just too talented to keep him down for long. He’ll get his opportunities, and when he succeeds with them, he’ll get more of them. Chubb has a chance to be a fantasy force in the second half of the season.
10. Sam Darnold, QB, NYJ: Darnold is the only rookie QB slated to start week 1, and I’d fully expect him to start all season. He has a few weapons now that the Jets have realized Bilal Powell is their best RB and they’ve got Quincy Enunwa back healthy. There will be some growing pains, but Darnold has a chance to finish the year as a respectable QB2 if he hits the ground running.
That’s all for the Top-10; now let’s dig into the week 1 slate…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Barkley is the one rookie I can confidently recommend for week 1. The Giants took him 2nd overall, and they plan to use him a ton. Jacksonville’s defense is considered to be the best in the league, but they were giving to opposing RBs last year. They ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency, and struggled a bit to contain backs who could catch as well. You didn’t make Barkley your first pick to sit him week one.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): Freeman draws a defense that was in the middle of the pack against the run in 2017, and they have lost much of the starting lineup that got them there. This isn’t the same Seattle defense that was feared a few years ago, and Freeman has a great shot at a successful debut. He’s an excellent flex option this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): I’d probably lean towards not playing Kerryon this week, but I’d expect he’ll at least be splitting the early down work with Blount, and the Lions are favored by nearly a touchdown. If Johnson finds the end zone, he’ll post a solid day.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): Moore is a flex option in deeper leagues this week. The Dallas defense could be abysmal this year, and DJ is essentially going to be the Panthers’ WR 1-A this season. 5-70 isn’t an unrealistic hope for Moore’s debut.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 1: @Car.): On the other side of this matchup, Gallup will have a chance to produce as well. The Panthers’ young secondary is decent, but nothing to be afraid of here, and I think Dallas plays from behind and throws more than they’d like. That negative game script would bode well for Gallup. I’d rather play Moore this week, but Gallup is also on the flex radar in week 1.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Det.): Darnold will be the youngest QB ever to start in week 1 of their rookie season, and he goes into Detroit as a 6.5-point underdog facing a defense that forced more turnovers last year than any teams not named the Jaguars or Ravens. He also will be without one of his starting receivers in Jermaine Kearse. It’s not a recipe for success his first time out.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Pit.): I love Chubb’s upside for the back half of the year, and the Steelers’ run defense hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier’s injury, but at least for week 1 it will probably be the Carlos Hyde show on early downs. Chubb may see a handful of carries, but it’s hard to predict big things with such a limited workload.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 1: @Den.): Penny will likely see a few carries, but for now it’s going to be Chris Carson leading the way for the Seahawks’ backfield, and the matchup this week is daunting if Denver is anywhere near as good against the run as they were a year ago. Steer clear of Penny this week.
RB Ronald Jones, TB (Wk. 1: @NO): This one should be pretty obvious as Jones was listed as the team’s 3rd-string back behind Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers earlier this week. Don’t overthink it.
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Trust the people telling you that James Conner is the back you want this week with Le’Veon Bell likely to miss this game. I’m curious to see how the Steelers deploy Samuels given his versatility (he played TE, RB and WR in college), but I don’t expect him to pick up much of the slack left by Bell’s absence this week.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 1: @Phi.): Ridley enters the season as the #3 receiver behind Julio and Sanu, and that likely puts him behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the target pecking order as well. That’s just too low in the food chain to trust until we see different on the field.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): While I like Kirk to finish the year as the Cardinals’ 2nd WR, his role for week 1 is foggy at best. It sounds like he will be rotating with Chad Williams and JJ Nelson, and his usage will just be too hard to predict for fantasy purposes in the opener.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): I was very tempted to list Sutton as a sleeper this week as he’s been better than expected through the preseason, but I’m just not sure there will be enough passing volume out of Denver to trust Sutton in week 1. He’s still behind Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas in the pecking order. There’s definitely upside given what he’s shown so far, but I would have a hard time trusting him in week 1.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): The Dolphins’ head coach Adam Gase has talked up the role that Gesicki will play this season, but the reality is that the rookie caught just 1 pass in the preaseason, he’s struggled as a blocker as well, and rookie tight ends rarely produce strong fantasy numbers. Also, the Dolphins haven’t had a TE reach 400 receiving yards in Gase’s two seasons as head coach. I’ll need to see it before I believe it with Gesicki.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Plays:
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): In all honesty, I trust Rex Burkhead more than Michel in week one since there is no guarantee that Sony is able to play yet, but if he goes I expect he’ll be involved. As I mentioned with Michel in my top-10 rookies, the Patriots NEVER spend resources on a running back. I think they want Sony to show why he’s the exception. He’s an intriguing risk/reward flex play for deeper leagues if he’s a go.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): You could certainly make a case for Hines’s teammate Jordan Wilkins as a sleeper here since it’s likely Wilkins starts on Sunday. Wilkins certainly has the higher floor, but against the Bengals’ defense, I’d rather roll the dice on the big play guy. Hines has struggled through the preseason, but Marlon Mack’s absence should open the door for him to get on the field on 3rd downs, and it only takes a couple big plays for Hines to have a huge game. He’s an explosive athlete, and one who could catch the Bengals by surprise. He’s no more than a DFS tournament punt play, but one who could pay off big.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 1: @GB): The Packers are favored by more than a touchdown in this game, and if the Bears fall behind I think Miller has a chance at a stronger than expected game. The Packers’ have had one of the worst pass defenses in the league two years running, and I don’t think they addressed it enough this offseason to make major strides. A 4-60 kind of game wouldn’t surprise me from Miller. If he finds the end zone with it, he’ll make some DFS players a little money.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): With Le’Veon Bell sitting in week one, and the Browns boasting a stout run defense (ranked 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA last year), there are plenty of passing targets to go around for the Steelers. Cleveland’s defensive scheme under Gregg Williams was kind of a joke last year, often lining up a safety deep enough to return a punt. It helped the Browns not get killed deep, but they were roasted in the intermediate part of the field, an area where Washington excelled in his career at Oklahoma State. I’d expect Washington to play in 3-WR sets this week, and the opportunity is there for him to be a sneaky DFS dart throw.
WR TreQuan Smith, NO (Wk. 1: vs. TB): I was sleeping on TreQuan around the time of the draft, but it’s hard to overlook what he’s been doing this preseason. The Saints clearly love him, and he could wind up the long-term WR2 behind Mike Thomas. He’s impressed all preseason while Cam Meredith was sidelined. He’s got a little work to do to move up the depth chart, but he’s an excellent dynasty or deep league stash at this point in the year. It’s very possible he surpasses Meredith and Ted Ginn by the latter part of the season.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Goedert could be in line for a strong debut. The Eagles will be without Alshon Jeffrey, and his likely replacement in Mack Hollins. That really leaves just Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace as worthwhile receivers that will be available. Expect a bunch of two-TE sets from Philly on Thursday, and expect Goedert to surprise. 5-6 targets is a reasonable expectation for the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Enjoy the action as the season gets underway Thursday night. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure you don’t end up starting a player who isn’t going to suit up, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Seven months. Seven…long…months. We’ve had to go seven months without football!
No more though! Football is back!
We are just hours away from the Super Bowl Champion Eagles kicking the seas…wait, is that right? Eagles? No, yeah, they’re telling me that’s right…weird! With the return of football comes the return of the confidence pool! Have no fear, we are back for another year of picks to help you win your pool…you’re welcome, by the way!
We’ve been waiting long enough, so let’s get to it!
Week 1 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – NEW ENGLAND over Houston – Yes they lost the Super Bowl, but they’re still the Patriots.
15 – BALTIMORE over Buffalo – It seems to me that the Bills may end up being one of the worst teams in recent memory that made the playoffs last year.
14 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – Yes Khalil Mack has been added to the list of legendary Bear defenders. But the only difference it will make in Green Bay is dropping them from the 16 point line.
13 – CAROLINA over Dallas – If Dak Prescott throws a pass and there are almost literally NO Cowboys there to catch it, did he really throw a pass? Zeke is going to have to do a lot this season.
12 – NEW ORLEANS over Tampa Bay – The Saints would have been favored to win big here even if the Bucs had Jameis Winston playing…but they don’t…so it will be bad.
11 – MINNESOTA over San Francisco – The Vikings look ready to make a run this year. My BOLD PREDICTION for week 1 is that THE VIKINGS WILL REPRESENT THE NFC IN THE SUPER BOWL THIS SEASON.
10 – DETROIT over New York Jets – I think that Sam Darnold will be the most successful quarterback of the 2018 draft class. But as of now, he still has these Jets around him.
9 – Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND – The apparently never ending Le’Veon Bell saga is the only reason the Steelers are not listed higher here.
8 – Seattle over DENVER – If you’re looking for points, look no further … … … than ANY other game but this one!
7 – PHILADELPHIA over Atlanta – Actually heard people say that the Falcons are lucky that they’ll play against Nick Foles instead of Carson Wentz. Yeah, ask the Patriots how well that worked out a few months back!
6 – Los Angeles Rams over OAKLAND – Loss of a franchise defensive player…city probably suing the team…off-season momentum not exactly on the side of the Raiders.
5 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Kansas City – A lot of people have the Chargers getting over the hurdle and winning the AFC West. No better way to show they can do it than by taking out the defending division champions.
4 – Tennessee over MIAMI – Week 1 and we already have a strong candidate for what can be seen as the least exciting game of the year.
3 – INDIANAPOLIS over Cincinnati – Don’t sleep on the Colts this year. If the running game can stay consistent they could fight for a Wild Card spot.
2 – Washington over ARIZONA – Here we have a game with two former #1 pick quarterbacks going head-to-head. Unfortunately those quarterbacks are Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Jacksonville – The Jaguars are the sexy Super Bowl pick this year. But I see the road getting off to a bumpy start.
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- Written by Mike Mocerino
Week 1 is upon us and like many of you, my work week is going to suffer, and I have no plans on coming into the office on Friday. After doing player profiles and random articles for drinkfive over the last few years I wanted to change things up a bit and do a weekly post on key situations each week. We will look at three different matchups and their fantasy implications. I will also make a prediction. Hopefully we can find a dark horse or two to ride into the championship.
Alfred Morris/Matt Breida vs Vikings Defense
With Jerick McKinnon going down with a torn ACL, the door is open for a potential RB2 in a revamped San Francisco offense. Since news broke, owners quickly moved to claim either Morris or Breida. Neither is going to produce the way McKinnon was expected to, but there is some value to be found.
Last year in 16 games, Breida caught 21 passes. In his 3 years at Georgia Southern, he caught 22 passes. As the smaller back, I have seen a few experts say he is the PPR running back to own. I'm not saying Morris is going to get the passing down work (just 57 receptions in 90 career games), but temper expectations. I expect Garcon and Kittle to see an uptick in receiving targets.
Morris WILL get the goal line work and should get the early down work as well. At 5’ 10” and 224 pounds, Morris is better built to handle running between the tackles. Not to mention Morris’ history with Kyle Shanahan. One more fun tidbit…..Morris averaged 4.8 YPC on 115 carries last year.
If either are available in your league, I would recommend a stash. Tough matchup, but game script will be the thing to watch.
Prediction: Both backs look good against a tough defense. Morris capitalizes and gets in the end-zone and is named starter week 2.
Indianapolis Running Backs
The dreaded hamstring injury has Marlon Mack questionable for the opener. This leaves the door potentially open for rookie Jordan Wilkins and Christine Michael. This is not Christine Michael's first chance - I was drinking the Kool-Aid in Seattle. Looking strictly at upside, I am taking a stab at Jordan Wilkins. If he looks good week 1, he could end up keeping the job even when Mack returns. Michael is expected to split carries week 1 if Mack misses time, but we have been down that road before.
Do not forget about Nyheim Hines (4.38 forty at the combine). He fumbled 4 times in 2 preseason games, but the Colts drafted him as their ‘Alvin Kamara’ back. I expect to see him on the field in passing situations but will be on a short leash.
Whoever emerges as the RB1 on the Colts could be a steal. Highest chance is Marion Mack, but I would take a stab at rookie Jordan Wilkins since he is most likely available. If you are in a deep PPR league, keep an eye on how they use Hines and IF he can hold onto the football.
Prediction: Wilkins is the most impressive runner after Mack is ruled out. Does not do enough to keep the job from Mack who returns week 2, but does eat into his carries and this turns into a timeshare.
Packers Wide Receivers
The number 1 on Green Bay’s offense is Davante Adams. His ADP has him pegged as a mid-first round pick which is great value! But what about the other guys? Green Bay brought in Jimmy Graham in the offseason and some would argue he is going to be the number 2 target in the passing attack. I am buying Jimmy Graham as the top red zone target for Aaron Rodgers, but do not think he will be the number 2 option between the 20’s.
Randall Cobb. Dreamy eyed Randall Cobb is listed as the WR2 on the Packers depth chart. In recent news, the Packers have been shopping him for a trade. He is owed a little over 8 million and has had a nagging ankle injury so I do not expect him to depart Green Bay. Watching him last year, it looks like he has been running in quick sand. He does have a history with Aaron Rodgers, but Cobb’s best days are behind him. I am avoiding Cobb this year and looking to see who Aaron builds a connection with that has two good ankles.
Next up on the depth chart is Geronimo Allison. With an ADP in the 13th round, there is a chance that Geronimo is a free agent in your league. Since Cobb is primarily playing in the slot, Allison could be the WR2 opposite Adams, who will draw the most attention. Allison is also entering his 3rd year in the league, historically a break out year for wide receivers. I am willing to take a chance on anyone in the Green Bay offense that could potentially be 2nd in targets (Maybe even first IF Adams were to go down. He did have 2 concussions last year.)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown. Yes, those are the next two rookies in line behind Allison. I also just wanted to type those fabulous names out. MVS showed flashes in the preseason and is listed at 6’ 4” with a 4.37 40 time. Out of the remaining packer WRs he will be the one to keep an eye on. He could see some playing time week 1, but historically Aaron relies on his vets.
Prediction: Allison is the 2nd most targeted WR on the Packers week 1 and is one of the hottest waiver wire adds going into week 2.
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- Written by David Biggs
Welcome back! We're headed full speed into the 2018 draft season, and before the NFL kicks off in just a couple of weeks, you need to reacquaint yourself with the world of fantasy football. Tune in to the drinkive podcast throughout the season and make sure to follow the rankings of your favorite fantasy experts (which hopefully also includes us here at drinkfive.com!) to stay on top of your league(s). Best of luck!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're just a few hours away from the draft when we can finally put all of the speculation behind us, but that means we still have a few hours to do more speculating! I've spent a lot of this week putting together the puzzle pieces to match the incoming fantasy rookies to the teams that would make the most sense for both them and the team. Today I turn my attention to the tight ends. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the tight ends to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. Let's jump in and see who fits where.
(Player, College - Landing spot)
Mike Gesicki, Penn State - New Orleans Saints: Gesicki won't provide much as a blocker early on, but the Saints have managed to work around that in the past with Jimmy Graham and converted tight end Marques Colston. Gesicki is a freak athlete for his size, and he'll cause huge matchup problems in the red zone. He may be able to provide what the Saints hoped they were getting in Coby Fleener.
Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State - Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are in need of a starting tight end with Jimmy Graham off to Green Bay, and Goedert is the best option available to them. Goedert is a better blocker than Mike Gesicki, which will be critical with Seattle's perpetually poor o-line play, and he's a more dynamic receiver than the other top TE option Hayden Hurst. If he does end up in Seattle, Goedert would have low-end TE1 upside as a rookie.
Hayden Hurst, South Carolina - Detroit Lions: Speaking of Hayden Hurst, The Gamecocks' TE would do well to end up in the Motor City. The Lions are in need of a new tight end after letting Eric Ebron go to Indy. Hurst isn't as good an athlete as Ebron, but he's a better blocker and isn't as prone to the drops that have driven Lions' fans nuts from Ebron. Detroit did bring in Luke Willson and Levine Toilolo as free agents, an still have Michael Roberts as well, but Hurst would likely leapfrog all of them on the depth chart quickly.
Mark Andrews, Oklahoma - Carolina Panthers: Andrews could be a great fit as the heir apparent to Greg Olsen in Carolina. Olsen just re-signed with the Panthers on a 2-year deal, which is plenty of time for Andrews to work on his craft as a blocker. Andrews is a much better receiver than blocker at this point and could be a dangerous weapon in 2-tight end sets while Olsen is still around, or as the starter if Olsen were to get hurt again. The Panthers feature a fair amount of vertical passing to the tight end position in their scheme, which would give Andrews nice upside if he is eventually able to take the starting role.
Jaylen Samuels, NC State - New England Patriots: Samuels is a versatile, dynamic player and the Patriots are a team that has always been adept at finding ways to use those. Samuels was used all over the place at NC State - at tight end, as an H-back, as a regular halfback, and split out wide. He managed to post 1,000 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs in his final year with the Wolfpack as that jack-of-all-trades kind of player. Both Philly and New England stand out as good landing spots for Samuels, but I think he'll find a role more quickly with the Pats, and they're more likely than Philly to take full advantage of his versatility.
Ian Thomas, Indiana - Dallas Cowboys: Thomas is a good athlete for the tight end position, but he likely needs a year or two to fine tune his craft as both a blocker and receiver at the NFL level. Sitting behind the ageless Jason Witten would be a good place to do this from. It feels like Witten is never going to retire, but the end is coming, and the Cowboys need to be prepared for that eventuality.
Durham Smythe, Notre Dame - Baltimore Ravens: Smythe is a good blocker who is skilled in the short passing game as well. He won't have a ton of upside to be a top fantasy tight end and will likely spend most of his career as a grinding fantasy TE2 who can fill bye weeks. Think of Brent Celek or CJ Fiedorowicz. He'd be a good fit with the Ravens, whose current starting TE is Nick Boyle, but probably not a great fit with your fantasy team.
Jordan Akins, UCF - Miami Dolphins: Akins is a converted wide receiver who has the skills to be a dangerous receiving threat, which is something Adam Gase likes from his tight ends. He needs to improve as a blocker, but most rookie TEs don't produce anything in year 1 anyway and he can sit for a year and learn from veteran Anthony Fasano. As long as the Dolphins aren't awful this year and Gase is still there in 2019, Akins would have a chance to start making good on his potential in year 2.
That's all I've got for this year's rookie crop. Make sure to go back and check out the landing spot articles on the QBs, RBs and WRs as well. I also want to give a special shout out to Matt Waldman and the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. If you don't know what that is, go to mattwaldmanrsp.com and check it out. I watch a lot of football and gather info on the incoming players in a lot of different ways, but I'm far from a professional scout and the RSP consistently makes me feel more knowledgeable about the players coming into the league and the game of football in general. It's worth much more than the price Matt charges for it. If you have any qualms with any of the landing spots above, don't be a stranger. Reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Thanks for taking the time to read this and enjoy the draft!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally Draft Day! In just a few hours, we'll be able to start seeing where the top prospects are actually going to start their pro careers. So...that means I still have a few more hours for some wishful thinking about landing spots. I tackled the QB and RB positions yesterday, and today I dive into what my favorite landing spots are for the WRs. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the receives to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. It's likely that there will be at least one team that drafts multiple wide receivers, but for this exercise, I have every receiver listed going somewhere different. Let's dive in...
(Player, college - landing spot)
Calvin Ridley, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Ridley didn't test well athletically at the combine, but he has the technical skill to get separation and was a consistent playmaker at Bama. In 2017 he pulled in nearly 31% of all of the receptions and more than 35% of the receiving yards put up by Alabama players. He also had a catch rate that was more than 10% higher than the average of the rest of the Bama receivers. The Panthers' offense helps create space for receivers since the defense always has to account for the chance that Cam runs the ball, and that will enhance Ridley's already impressive ability to get open. The Panthers lack a true number 1 receiver, and Ridley has the ability to become that guy if selected.
DJ Moore, Maryland - Dallas Cowboys: Moore is my favorite receiver in this class, his game pairs very well with Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys have a glaring need at WR after dumping Dez Bryant. While a lot of people are tempted to project a big, physical receiver here to replace what they lose in Dez, I think they'd be better served to draft a technician who wins in the short and intermediate areas of the field and after the catch. Moore is the best player in this draft who fits that description. Dak is best suited to a precision west coast passing game that can keep him in rhythm, and Dez just isn't a good fit for it. This is evidenced by the fact that Bryant had a catch rate below 53% in each of his two seasons with Prescott at QB. He had a catch rate above 60% in 4 out of 5 seasons with Romo under center (I don't count 2015 where Romo played just 3 games with Dez). DJ Moore would help the Cowboys' offense be more consistent than a player more similar to Dez would.
Courtland Sutton, SMU - Green Bay Packers: There has been a ton of hype around Sutton throughout draft season, but he's not as much of a finished product as that hype would have you believe. One thing he does have that not many of the receivers in this class do is true WR1 upside, and Green Bay playing with Aaron Rodgers is a place where I like his chances to make good on that. The Packers moved on from Jordy Nelson this offseason, and will undoubtedly be looking for a wide receiver within the first 2-3 rounds of this draft. Considering how valuable Jordy has been to the Packers over the years, they should look for the player with the most possible upside to replace him rather than a guy who will step in and contribute immediately. Sutton might be actually be both of those guys, but if he isn't ready to be a starter day 1, the Packers have a capable placeholder in Geronimo Allison.
James Washington, Oklahoma State - Arizona Cardinals: If you read my QB landing spots article, you already know I like Mason Rudolph to land in Arizona, so it's only fitting that I would like his favorite college receiver to join him. Washington has a ton of skill as a deep threat that can help offset the loss of John Brown to Baltimore, and if Rudolph lands there I'd expect Mike McCoy to install more of a vertical passing offense that Washington can thrive in. He's not just a one-trick pony though. James certainly has skills that will translate to the short and intermediate areas as well. He earned a black belt in karate when he was younger, which will help him with discipline, precision of movement, and understanding leverage. The Cardinals' receiving depth chart is very unsettled outside of Larry Fitzgerald, and I'd expect Washington to contribute immediately if he ends up in the desert.
Anthony Miller, Memphis - San Francisco 49ers: Miller is a bit of a tweener who could wind up in the slot or on the perimeter as a pro, but I think he would be best served starting his career in the slot. San Francisco is looking to upgrade their receiving unit now that they've found their franchise QB, and Miller is an explosive athlete who would be a good fit in their scheme. He would likely start in the slot with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin on the outside in 3-wide sets, but he could eventually develop into the replacement for soon-to-be 32 year-old Garcon in a couple years.
Deon Cain, Clemson - Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have been very active in free agency in attempts to upgrade their wide receiver group. They've already signed John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, but they also showed they aren't content yet by offering a multiple year deal to Dez Bryant (that he rejected). Brown has battled a sickle-cell condition that has limited his ability to stay on the field after a promising start to his career, and Willie Snead was suspended 3 games last year due to a DUI charge and struggled to get his footing after returning. It's not far-fetched that Cain could vault into the WR2 role early in his rookie year. Cain fits the size/speed prototype for a perimeter receiver, and has ability in the vertical passing game that would pair well with Flacco's strong arm.
Christian Kirk, Texas A&M - Miami Dolphins: This pairing just makes too much sense to avoid it. Kirk is probably the best wide receiver in this draft that projects as strictly a slot receiver in the NFL, and the Dolphins just traded away their slot receiver who was the focal point of their passing game. Kirk can fill the same role at nearly the same level for a fraction of what the Browns just paid Jarvis Landry. If he lands in Miami, Kirk has 75+ reception upside as a rookie.
Dante Pettis, Washington - New England Patriots: Pettis lacks elite size and athleticism for a perimeter receiver, but he does just about everything well. He has great skill as a route runner, great hands, and is an excellent jump-ball receiver downfield as well. He was one of the best punt returners in the country last year, and he uses those skills effectively to gain yards after the catch also. The Patriots always seem to do a good job of finding bargains at the skill positions, and Pettis would certainly qualify as a guy who is expected to be drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. The depth chart might be a little crowded early on with the addition of Jordan Matthews and the returns of Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell, but none of the roles are settled outside of Chris Hogan's. At the very least, Pettis would get on the field as a punt returner as a rookie, and would work his way up the depth chart from there. He could be a long-term starter.
DJ Chark, LSU - Philadelphia Eagles: Chark ran the best 40 time in this receiver class at 4.34, and can be used as a speedy deep threat while the rest of his game develops. The Eagles' offense takes plenty of deep shots, and traded starting WR Torrey Smith away this offseason. He wasn't heavily targeted last year, but there were some deep throws that went Smith's way. DJ would have a chance to compete with Mack Hollins and Mike Wallace for the role, but I expect Wallace to win that position battle. I like this landing spot more for Chark's development. Wallace signed for just one year, so if Chark is able to make strides in his game, he could step into the high upside starting role in year 2.
Michael Gallup, Colorado State - Indianapolis Colts: Gallup was prolific in his two years at Colorado State, averaging 88-1,345-10.5. He lacks the top end speed to develop into a number 1 receiver in the NFL, but he has the skills to develop into a solid WR2 as a possession receiver and would complement TY Hilton really well. He could quickly become one of Andrew Luck's favorite targets (assuming Luck ever returns).
Marcell Ateman, Oklahoma State - Denver Broncos: Ateman is a big receiver who tries to win with his physicality rather than technique. He's going to need to develop that technique a bit to succeed at the NFL level, and Denver would be a great place for him to sit and learn early on. The Broncos will need to get younger at WR soon with Demaryius at 30 and Manny Sanders at 31 years old, and DT would be a great mentor to help Ateman learn some of the nuance of the position. He has tantalizing upside if he's willing to put in the work to realize it.
Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame - Oakland Raiders: St. Brown has gotten plenty of hype due to his dimensions and athleticism, but he has a lot of work to do on his game. Jon Gruden is an old school coach who will love the measurables ESB offers. If he lands in Oakland, St. Brown should get some usage as a red zone threat early on. The Raiders currently don't have a receiver taller than 6'2" on the roster, and St. Brown is 6'5". There's also an opportunity to progress into a starting role in the next couple years if he's able to develop his game since Jordy Nelson is going to be 33 years old this season.
DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State - Tennessee Titans: A lot of draft twitter would be up in arms if this happens since they love Taywan Taylor, but Hamilton might be able to step in as the slot receiver right away in Tennessee. His game profiles similarly to that of Cooper Kupp, and the Titans' new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur held the same role with the Rams last year where Kupp was his slot receiver. The job wouldn't be handed to him though. Taywan was impressive when he got opportunities last year and Hamilton will have to beat him out to contribute much as a rookie. With that said, Hamilton has the talent to grow into the number two role opposite Corey Davis if the Titans choose not to re-sign Rishard Matthews at year's end.
Keke Coutee, Texas Tech - Buffalo Bills: I'm not sure that Coutee is necessarily a scheme fit in Buffalo but he has the ability to take the top off a defense, which is something that Buffalo's WR group could definitely use. He's skilled enough that he could develop into an outside receiver despite his diminuitive 5'10" height. Receiver is definitely a position of need for Buffalo after Zay Jones' offseason arrest and Jordan Matthews' departure to New England. Number 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin is also coming off a season-ending injury. Injecting an exciting playmaker like Coutee into the offense would certainly help.
Richie James, Middle Tennessee State - Seattle Seahawks: James is an undersized 'tweener' who could find a fit in the slot or as a perimeter receiver, but that's an archetype that the Seahawks know pretty well. Both Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin also fit that mold. Adding James to 3-wide sets could make the Seahawks receivers interchangable and allow them to be more unpredictable as an offense. James is a skilled receiver who is dangerous in the open field, and Russell Wilson's improvisational skills behind the line create holes in the secondary where a player like James can make splash plays. There is a little bit of Antonio Brown to his game, and he could eventually become the top pass catcher in Seattle if they choose not to pay Doug Baldwin again when his contract is up in a few years.
Jordan Lasley, UCLA - Chicago Bears: Lasley struggled with some drops and maturity issues in college, but he has the game to be the long-term WR2 opposite Allen Robinson if he has those issues under control. It's no guarantee that Kevin White will ever stay healthy or regain the form he had before the injuries, and the Bears need to make other plans. Lasley is adept in the vertical game, but also has some shorter routes that he can win with in his repertoire. New head coach Matt Nagy's offense was explosive in KC last year, and adding playmakers like Lasley who fit it has been a priority this offseason for the Bears.
Allen Lazard, Iowa State - Atlanta Falcons: Lazard projects as a big slot receiver at the NFL level (or possibly even tight end), and the Falcons' slot receiver Taylor Gabriel left for Chicago this offseason. Gabriel and Lazard are very different players, and Lazard wouldn't be a great fit in the scheme that Shanahan used to run in Atlanta, but after a down year offensively in 2017 I expect Sarkisian to change things up a bit this year. The biggest benefit Lazard would provide is that he would help draw coverage away from Julio Jones in the red zone. With his 6'5" frame, you have to account for him in close, which should give Jones more room to operate. Lazard might develop into a fantasy asset down the road, but he would immediately be a boost to Atlanta's red zone offense.
J'Mon Moore, Missouri - Washington Redskins: Moore has the ideal size to play on the outside, where Washington is still a little unsettled. Jamison Crowder should be locked into the slot role, but Josh Doctson still hasn't made good on his potential and free agent acquisition Paul Richardson needs to show that he can continue to build on what he did last year in Seatte. Moore lacks deep speed and will be at his best working in the short and intermediate areas of the field. That should pair well with new QB Alex Smith, who is normally too risk averse to take shots downfield. Smith made strides as a deep thrower last year, but I'm not convinced that will continue as he transitions to a new offense and loses the playmaking speed of Tyreek Hill.
Daurice Fountain, Northern Iowa - Minnesota Vikings: Fountain is a raw athlete making the jump from FCS to the NFL. He's going to have to refine his technique as a receiver to make an impact at the NFL level, and where better for him to do that than Minnesota where they already have two receivers who are very technically sound? If he is able to develop as a receiver, he should be able to push Kendall Wright to the bench in 3-wide sets by year two. If Laquon Treadwell makes strides this year it would be more of an uphill climb for Fountain, but I'll believe it when I see it with Treadwell.
Byron Pringle, Kansas State - New York Giants: The Giants have a hole at WR for their 3-wide sets with Brandon Marshall being released, and I'm not sure Roger Lewis is the guy to fill it. Pringle is old for a prospect and had trouble with the law when he was younger, but he's had 4 or 5 years on the straight and narrow since. He runs crisp routes, has dynamic ability with the ball in his hands, and has good athleticism for an NFL WR. He also can be had with a day 3 pick, which will allow the Giants to fill some other holes before picking him.
That's all I've got for the wide receivers. There are so many players so close in skill level in this class that this was easily the toughest position to match players to teams. There is bound to be a lot of disagreement out there, so if you want to shout your disagreements at me feel free to reach out on twitter to do so (@Shawn_Foss). Also, go back and check out the QB and RB landing spot articles if you haven't already done so, and keep an eye out for the TE article later today. Enjoy the draft!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! In case you didn't know it, the NFL Draft is almost upon us. We can finally put all of the mock drafts and misdirection by NFL front offices behind us over the next couple days. We will be able to quit guessing who is going where and start assessing how the new pieces fit with their new teams, but we're not quite there yet. So, I wanted to take a stab at picking my favorite landing spots for each of the top backs in the draft before it's too late. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the backs to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. One other quick note: view this list as a complete picture rather than just looking at each player individually. For example, it's possible you think the Colts' RB job is the best available spot, and therefore it could be the best fit for 3 or 4 of the backs on the list. I'm only listing one back for each spot, so if I think the best fit in Indy is Nick Chubb, that means the starting job in Indy is crossed off the list for everyone else. With that in mind, let's dive into my favorite landing spots for the top RBs in the 2018 draft:
(Player, College - Favorite Landing Spot)
Nick Chubb, Georgia - Indianapolis Colts: Since I already gave this one away in the intro, I figure I may as well start here. Chubb is a special talent who could be a three-down back at the NFL level, and the Colts have a glaring need at the position. Indy's lack of receiving talent aside from TY Hilton will allow teams to stack the box at times, and Chubb is a more physical runner between the tackles than Saquon Barkley. He's a huge upgrade over Frank Gore who had the role last year, while also playing with a similar style to Gore. I believe Chubb will be a capable receiver at the NFL level, but if he falters in that part of his game the Colts will have a built-in fallback in Marlon Mack that they can use on 3rd downs. If Andrew Luck comes back healthy, Chubb's running ability would give the Colts the balance to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
Saquon Barkley, Penn State - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs would be ecstatic if Barkley managed to fall to them at pick 7. That's extremely unlikely to happen with the Browns, Giants, Colts and Jets all picking ahead of them. Despite that, I think Tampa is the place where Barkley would shine the brightest. Head coach Dirk Koetter runs a vertical passing scheme and has plenty of deep threat weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard. The deep passing threat will open up plenty of room for Barkley to operate both as a runner and a receiver. Despite his 233-pound frame and the 29 bench press reps he put up at the combine, Barkley does his best work in space rather than banging between the tackles. He'd have plenty of space to operate in Tampa's system. He also has the prerequisite pass protection skills necessary for a running back in a scheme like this one. The last time Koetter had a fully healthy three-down back was 2015, when Doug Martin totaled nearly 1,700 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs. Saquon is a much better receiver than Martin. He'd have legitimate top-5 RB upside in year 1 if he ended up in Tampa.
Derrius Guice, LSU - Cleveland Browns: Like Nick Chubb, Guice wasn't used a lot as a receiver in college, so there are some questions about whether or not he can be a true three-down back in the NFL. I think he can be, but like the Colts the Browns have a built-in answer to those questions in Duke Johnson. Guice is a physical runner who could very well wind up being the best back in this class, and Cleveland won't have to take him in the top four picks of the draft to get him.
Sony Michel, Georgia - Detroit Lions: The run game has been a problem in Detroit for a long time. They've had just one back break 1,000 rushing yards in a season since 2004 (Reggie Bush in 2013 with 1,006 yards). It's time to fix the problem, and Michel may be the way to do it. Part of the issue is that the Lions haven't had a true three-down back since maybe Kevin Jones (the back who broke 1,000 yards in '04). They've utilized a pass-first offense for most of the time that Matt Stafford has been the QB, so they've focused on getting running backs who are adept receivers. They've had guys like Reggie Bush, and Ameer Abdullah, and Theo Riddick, and Jahvid Best. The thing about Michel is that he is an adept receiver (one of the best in this class), but also an excellent runner, even between the tackles despite a slight frame for a feature back. Anyone who watched him run against Alabama in the National Championship could regale you with stories of his skill as an inside runner. He could have just the right combination of skills to finally give the Lions the feature back they've been seeking for over a decade.
Rashaad Penny, San Diego State - Denver Broncos: Denver is in need of a feature back, and Penny certainly checks most of the boxes you look for. He's big enough, fast enough, and a skilled receiver that can challenge the defense downfield. Denver was long known for the zone blocking scheme in the run game from the Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak days, but they have switched to a gap blocking scheme in more recent years, and this scheme is a much better fit for Penny. The one area of his game that could trip Penny up is his pass protection. If he struggles with this early on, it could keep him off the field. If he is able to improve that part of his game quickly, he could be a big-time producer in year one in Denver.
Ronald Jones, USC - New York Jets: Jones has the speed to be the home run threat the Jets currently lack at RB. We know by now that Isaiah Crowell is no more than just an average starter, and Bilal Powell has failed for years to win the featured role. RoJo is a dangerous runner who can put pressure on the edges of the defense to contain him. One question with Jones is his ability as a receiver. He wasn't asked to catch the ball much at USC, so it remains to be seen how good his skill set as a receiver is. If he shows skill as a pass catcher early on, his upside could be huge.
Royce Freeman, Oregon - Washington Redskins: At the very least, Washington needs an upgrade to their early down running game, and Freeman would provide an upgrade over Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley. Washington loves what Chris Thompson brings as a 3rd-down back, so Freeman would likely start out with just early-down work, but he catches the ball well enough to eventually establish himself as the every down guy. He'd have monster upside in year one if he landed in Washington and something happened to Thompson.
Bo Scarbrough, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey's performance last year made it clear that it would be an uphill battle for him to ever become a workhorse back in the NFL. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry while splitting time with Jonathan Stewart. He needs to be complemented by a power runner. The Panthers spent the 8th overall pick in the draft last year on CMC, so there is no way they would invest the kind of draft capital it would require to land a Guice, Chubb, or even a Royce Freeman to find that power back. Enter Bo Scarbrough. Bo is viewed as a one-dimensional sledgehammer of a runner, but he surprised in a big way with his athletic testing at the combine, showing explosion with a 40" vertical and 10'9" broad jump. Bo is exactly the type of player the Panthers need, and they can get him at a price that makes sense for them.
Kerryon Johnson, Auburn - Miami Dolphins: Johnson's skill as a physical runner isn't that far behind that of Nick Chubb and Derrius Guice. Kenyan Drake doesn't profile as a lead back at his size, and Frank Gore likely has just one more NFL season left in him. Gore would be a great mentor to help Johnson learn the nuance of playing the RB position in the NFL, and Drake and Kerryon would make a formidable tandem by late in 2018 or the start of the 2019 season.
Kalen Ballage, Arizona State - San Francisco 49ers: Ballage is one of the most unique prospects in this class. He has the size, speed and strength to be a special runner, but he really struggles with vision and patience, and doesn't always run with the power that he should. He's also one of the best receiving backs in this class. The 49ers are the team I think is best suited to take advantage of his skills. They don't have a back of Ballage's size that they can use as a goal-line and short yardage back, and Ballage is good enough as a receiver for the 49ers to use him in those spots and still be creative and unpredictable. If he ever develops as a runner, he also might be able to unseat Jerick McKinnon as the starter down the road.
Nyheim Hines, NC State - Philadelphia Eagles: It looks like Darren Sproles will be calling it a career, and even if he isn't, he's no longer under contract with the Eagles. The Eagles have an interesting group of RBs with Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood, but none of those guys have the game-breaking speed that Hines does. Hines isn't going to step in as a major part of the offense anywhere as a rookie, but the Eagles have innovative enough coaches to find ways to get his speed involved, and his role will grow if he has early success.
John Kelly, Tennessee - New York Giants: Most NYG fans are expecting the team to land Saquon Barkley with the second pick, but if you read my QB landing spot piece prior to this, you know I think Josh Rosen should be the pick there. I really like Kelly as a RB alternative for the Giants. Kelly's a violent runner with agility, and he's also an adept receiver who excels in the screen game. He's also sound in pass protection, which is important since both Eli Manning and Josh Rosen aren't very mobile. He could stand to be a little more explosive, but I think the team that lands Kelly will be pleasantly surprised.
Mark Walton, Miami (FL) - Arizona Cardinals: Walton was used as a feature back in college at Miami, but that will never be his role in the NFL. He's much more likely to be utilized as a 3rd-down back at the NFL level. I like Arizona as a landing spot because he'll be able to see the field a bit spelling David Johnson early on, and he won't have the pressure of being a key cog in the offense before he's ready. He'd also benefit a lot from having Johnson around to learn from. Walton has some upside, but he's more likely to realize his potential if he's not thrust into a big role right away.
Justin Jackson, Northwestern - Pittsburgh Steelers: Jackson would be a fantastic choice as Le'Veon Bell insurance. Bell and the Steelers still haven't hammered out a long-term extension, and with his current salary and asking price, the Steelers may choose to move on from Bell after the 2018 season. Jackson is one of the most underrated backs in this class. He won't cost too high of a pick for Pittsburgh, but has a chance to be a feature back with the playing style of Jamaal Charles. Jackson has shown that he can handle the rigors of a workhorse role despite not being a bigger back. He was an ultra-productive 4-year starter at Northwestern, tallying 1,388 scrimmage yards as a freshman, and at least 1,500 in each of his 3 other seasons. He will surprise if he gets the opportunity.
Akrum Wadley, Iowa - Buffalo Bills: The Bills already have LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory, but Wadley would be a different style player than either of those guys. The Bills may be playing catch-up in the second half of games quite a bit this season, and Wadley would be a better option to spell Shady McCoy in those situations due to his receiving ability. He would also be a good complementary back to Ivory if anything happened to McCoy. Shady will be turning 30 this upcoming season and has just 2 years left on his current deal, so there is more upside for Wadley's role to grow once McCoy is gone.
Chase Edmonds, Fordham - New England Patriots: Edmonds might be able to step in and serve as the Dion Lewis replacement pretty early on in his career. I don't think he'd play as big a role this year as Lewis did last season, but he excels in some of the same areas. Edmonds isn't quite as elusive as Lewis, but he's still a shifty undersized back who can be a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. No team does a better job finding bargain RBs than the Patriots, and Edmonds would fit that mold as a day 3 draft pick. I'd expect Rex Burkhead to be the most productive Patriot running back this season, but Edmonds could certainly carve out a useful role that could help fantasy teams.
Chris Warren, Texas - Houston Texans: It's been rumored that Donta' Foreman won't be healthy to start the year and may have to open the season on the PUP list. If that's the case, Warren could be a valuable complement to Lamar Miller during the early part of the season. Warren is a very different player than his dad was (former Seahawks' back of the same name). He runs with effortless power and will bulldoze defenders in the open field. He converted to tight end late last season, but that was more because of his prowess as a blocker than receiving skill. I think his best position in the NFL will be running back. There are questions about his vision and acceleration, but his 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone drills at the combine were impressive even if he were 20-30 pounds lighter. If Warren lands with Houston and impresses while Foreman is out, it might be hard for the coaching staff to make him step aside once Foreman returns.
That's all I've got on the running back class until after the draft. If any of the players above do land on the team I've matched them with, that will likely be a good thing for both the player and the team. I did try to at least impart a little bit of knowledge about what type of back each player is. If you disagree with anything written above, don't hesitate to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I'm always up for a spirited debate. In the meantime, keep an eye out for my WR and TE landing spot articles that should be posted Thursday afternoon. Enjoy the draft!