Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by David Biggs
Players I expect to perform at a higher level this week than other experts include: Chris Carson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Golden Tate, and Eric Ebron. Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck in Week 10 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
We are at the point where most of the fantasy football playoff spots have been determined.
Some spots are still being fought over but a lot of teams are looking to next year.
For fantasy football that is. Lucky for them, the confidence pool gives you a chance to win every week! So no slowing down here!
Week 11 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
13 – NEW ORLEANS over Philadelphia – Could this be the proverbial “Passing of the Torch” from one champion to the next?
12 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Denver – Don’t think there should be an issue with the Chargers easily handling an AFC West bottom feeder for the second straight week.
11 – BALTIMORE over Cincinnati – Joe Flacco or Lamar Jackson? Doesn’t matter – the Bengals still don’t have the weapon they need.
10 – CHICAGO over Minnesota – Good news Vikings fans! This game got flexed to prime time! Bad news…it’s against the Bears.
9 – ATLANTA over Dallas – Yes the Cowboys got a big road win last week…but the Falcons aren’t the Eagles.
8 – SEATTLE over Green Bay – I can’t be the only one that sees this matchup and immediately thinks of the replacement refs … … … and laughs!
7 – ARIZONA over Oakland – With the Giants winning last week, this loss to the Cardinals will solidify the Raiders spot at the top of the 2019 Draft.
6 – Carolina over DETROIT – Simply put, Christian McCaffrey will win people their fantasy football leagues this year.
5 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Kansas City – It’s the matchup we have been waiting for, but it’s a regular season matchup. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that NEITHER THE CHIEFS OR THE RAMS WILL MAKE THE SUPER BOWL THIS YEAR.
4 – Houston over WASHINGTON – The Redskins don’t have enough to stop the hottest team in the league.
3 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – Who knew that this would end up being a game that will go a long way in deciding an AFC South Champion?
2 – Pittsburgh over JACKSONVILLE – The Steelers could be dangerous now that the Bell drama is in the past.
1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Tampa Bay – This game will be played…that’s all I got.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
36 Fantasy Points, Week 10's Leader
This year's fantasy football juggernaut is perhaps as unexpected as anything in the NFL. Mitchell Trubisky (yes, he gets to be called by his full name) tops the Week 10 leader board with 36 points. For the sake of argument, let's assume that future HoF'er Nick Mullens keeps his total under 36 tonight. This is the second time this season that Trubisky is the highest points scorer in a week. He also achieved this back in week 4, when he set the high water mark for any player this season at 43.46 points. Trubisky is the only QB to lead the league in points in a given week twice this season. The QB group that led the league just once is Patrick Mahomes (Wk 7), Drew Brees (Wk 3), Ben Roethlisberger (Wk 2) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Wk 1). That's pretty impressive company to beat, considering that a Bears quarterback and high fantasy ceiling have never been discussed together, ever. The only other player to lead the league in two different weeks in fantasy is James Conner, who did so in weeks 5 and 8.
249 Passing Yards
With just 249 passing yards on Sunday, Patrick Mahomes came one game short of tying Drew Brees' record for consecutive 300-yard passing games. Mahomes' streak ended at 8 games, but don't worry, he's still the league leader for passing yards and touchdowns and has a 9.0 touchdown percentage. His numbers were down this week against the Cardinals, but it didn't take a lot to beat them. His best stat from this game is that he did not throw an interception, which he had done in each of the last 5 weeks. Mahomes is still on track to throw over 5000 yards and could still get to 50 touchdowns at his current pace. This is perhaps the most impressive resume for MVP in a season with a few really top notch contenders. Mahomes will have a chance to separate himself if the Chiefs can beat the Rams this Monday in Mexico City - apparently the only good MNF matchup that we're allowed to have this season. I wonder how the crowd will react to the monstrosity that is the Booger-mobile. This is the last streak I was tracking in 2018, so let me know if there's something else out there I should be watching for.
501 Yards on Offense
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers accumulated a whopping 501 offensive yards against the Redskins on Sunday - a team that normally gives up just 324 yards per game. Given those stats, one would assume that Fitzmagic is back in full force - Ryan Fitzpatrick did have over 400 passing yards for the fourth time this year. Of course, we don't bring up stats like this because things went according to plan. The Bucs managed just 3 points, helped along the way by 4 turnovers (three of them to end long drives) and two missed field goals. Give credit, I guess, to the Washington Redskins, who are now 6-3 and are probably going to be hosting a playoff game. I don't even need to guess - just look at the remaining schedule for the Redskins, which features just two teams that have winning records. A final, weird note about the Redskins is that this team has not experienced a single lead change this year. They have either led all game or trailed after the first score, showing that this team is literally devoid of excitement.
21 TD in 6 Games
I'm willing to bet you haven't heard much about Andrew Luck's health since he attempted 121 passes in just 5 days back at the end of in weeks 4 and 5. There's a good reason, and it's that everything finally seems OK with @CaptAndrewLuck (that twitter feed is a must-follow). Andrew Luck has at least 3 TDs in the last 6 games and 21 total over that period of time. He's the 5th best QB over the last 4 weeks in fantasy and has the Colts on a 3-game winning streak. The Colts are just 4-5, but they have a good ground game, haven't given up a sack in the last 4 games and Luck is on track to throw for the most TDs in his career - all of them apparently going to tight ends. Also, nice game, Eric Ebron and your three TDs. Not a nice game, all of us who switched over to Jack Doyle once he returned from injury. The Colts could sneak into the AFC wildcard picture, or even the division picture, with two games against the Titans left to go.
50% More Offensive Touchdowns
The Bills can use this tag line when advertising their team for the rest of the season. They went into Sunday with just 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games, and increased that total by 50% with an additional 4 against the Jets. Heck, they even added a bonus defensive TD to make it a lucky 13 on the season. This was just the second game this season that the Bills did not have a turnover - the other was their Week 3 shellacking of the Vikings. The Bills also put up 451 yards of offense - their previous high water mark was just 333 - a 35% improvement! The new and improved Matt Barkley led Buffalo Bills (please, please do not give us any more Nathan Peterman) will have a bye this week before playing the Jags in week 12 and oh who cares, it's the Bills and they still stink. This is more of an indictment on the Jets, who have multiple turnovers in 8 of 10 games this year and somehow managed to lose the two games where they did not turn the ball over.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
Two weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals put up a gutsy performance defeating the San Francisco 49ers 18-15 at home while Larry Fitzgerald's son attended the state fair. Unfortunately, I watched some of this game. Now, fresh off their bye week, the Cardinals are poised to pick up their second straight victory when they travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. Just kidding! This Cardinals team could not beat the Chiefs if they had a million weeks to prepare!
Currently the Chiefs are sitting as 16.5 point favorites in this one. While the Browns did give them a little trouble last week in the first half keeping it within 6 points before ultimately getting blown out 37-21, Josh Rosen will suffer the same fate as Baker Mayfield. This is my clear cut pick for the week if you have the luxury of still using the Chiefs.
If you are not so lucky, I would recommend using the Chargers on the road vs. the Raiders. The team clearly quit on coach Jon Gruden last week in a touchdown-less blowout loss to the 49ers. If both those have been used I like this week as an opportunity to use an unreliable Jets team at home vs. the Bills.
Normally, I'd shy away from the Jets here as the Bills players have to see this as a rare game in which they have a chance of winning, But, with Darnold out that leaves the Jets with veteran QB Josh Mccown. The wiley vet will only have to outperform human interception machine Nathan Peterman, which means just complete more passes to your team than to your opponent. I'm just now reading Buffalo media being hopeful that freshly signed Matt Barkley will get the start. So in other words, they are hoping for a QB who doesn't know the offense to get the nod. Yikes!
Cheers,
Drink Five!
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Remember how excited you were when on your 10th birthday? You reached double digits!
Well, we have reached week 10! Hooray for double digit weeks! It also means that we are getting closer and closer to the end of the season…which means that every game is crucial is key to hang on to that lead that you no doubt have in your pool … … … you’re welcome!
Week 10 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
14 – KANSAS CITY over Arizona – The Cardinals are just thanking their lucky stars that the Raiders are a thing this year.
13 – GREEN BAY over Miami – After falling short in Foxboro, look for the Packers to take out their AFC East aggression on Brock and the Boys.
12 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Seattle – LA can’t be happy that they are no longer the clear-cut best team in the league. Poor Seahawks…
11 – CHICAGO over Detroit – Much like the Titans, I mentioned that the Lions were a team to keep an eye on a few weeks ago. Sorry, Detroit!
10 – NEW YORK JETS over Buffalo – At this point, the Bills are just a fun team to watch…maybe not so much for the Bills Mafia though.
9 – PHILADELPHIA over Dallas – Amari Cooper stood out in his Dallas debut, then the Cowboys showed that a new shiny toy doesn’t make a rotted out toy box look any better.
8 – Los Angeles Chargers over OAKLAND – Remember how I said that the Bills were fun to watch…the Raiders are just a sad team to watch.
7 – Atlanta over CLEVELAND – Tevin Coleman should have another fun game this week. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that TEVIN COLEMAN WILL HAVE OVER 175 TOTAL YARDS.
6 – INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville – Who would’ve thunk that the Jags would be the underdogs against the Colts in the beginning of the season?
5 – TAMPA BAY over Washington – Washington showed that they are still a little ways away last week and won’t be able to handle Fitzmagic! (side note – I feel contractually obligated so say “Fitzmagic” at least once in a week that he starts)
4 – New Orleans over CINCINNATI – A game against a team that can score 40 points at will AND just added Dez Bryant is not the best time for the Bengals to lose AJ Green.
3 – PITTSBURGH over Carolina – This is the best Thursday night game we have had in quite some time. Big Ben will be too much for Carolina to handle in Heinz Field.
2 – SAN FRANCISCO over New York Giants – Thanks to amazingly lucky scheduling, the 49ers are about to win two games in a row!
1 – TENNESSEE over New England – Hunch…and hunches stay low on the board.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it to the double-digit weeks, which means we're in the home stretch of the fantasy regular season. Week 9 saw the surprising debut of Nick Mullens, and an apocalyptic performance by Sam Darnold against the Dolphins. DJ Moore's purported breakout didn't quite go according to plan, but Calvin Ridley found his way back into the end zone and Marquez Valdes-Scantling continued his mid-season surge. Let's take a look at what to expect in week 10, and which rookies could help you improve your playoff positioning this week.
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 10: @SF): Of course you're starting Barkley in season-long leagues, but he should be a chalky play in DFS cash games this week as well. The 49ers should let him have a solid receiving day since only 4 teams have allowed more RB receptions and only 4 have allowed more RB receiving TDs on the year. Barkley has been the engine of the Giants' offense, and he's a strong RB1 this week once again.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Duke Johnson is the more popular name after last weekend's 9-catch, 2-score game, but Chubb still notched more than 20 carries and faces a Falcons' defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA. There's room in this matchup for both Chubb and Duke to be solid RB2s.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Ridley got back into the end zone last week, and he's a reasonable WR3 option this week. The Browns aren't a great matchup, ranking 2nd in pass defense DVOA, but they have allowed the 11th-most WR points per game (all point totals and ranks are based on PPR scoring). This isn't a matchup to run away from. Ridley should be a solid WR3, but I wouldn't hold it against you if you had 3 really solid options to play over him and sat him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Atlanta has allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game on the year. They've allowed 6 of 7 QBs faced to reach 300 passing yards, and 6 of 7 to reach at least 20 fantasy points. Mayfield has thrown multiple TDs in 3 consecutive games. Mayfield should be a high floor QB2 this week with some appeal as a back-end QB1 in 12-team or deeper leagues.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Sony should be active this week, but the Pats could ease him back in after the success Cordarrelle Patterson had at running back against Green Bay. The Titans are a tough matchup, allowing the 4th-fewest RB fantasy points per game, but it'll be tough to sit him if it looks like he'll get his usual role back. Sony tallied at least 92 rushing yards and a TD in each of the 3 full games he played.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 10: @Chi.): The Lions' offense really sputtered in their first game after dealing away Golden Tate. It was a tough matchup against a strong Vikings' defense, but things don't get much easier for Kerryon and company this week in Chicago. Johnson still has some upside, but the Bears are allowing the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and Theo Riddick's return has put a damper on KJ's receiving opportunities. Kerryon should be viewed as an upside flex play this weekend.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): Valdes-Scantling has been running as the number 2 WR for the Packers, even with Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison back on the field, and Allison suffered a season-ending groin injury last Sunday night. I'm not quite ready to go all-in on MVS due to his reliance on big plays to post fantasy production, but he's managed to reach double-digit scoring in 4 straight games. The number 2 WR in any Aaron Rodgers offense is a fantasy threat. The Dolphins are allowing just the 9th-fewest WR points per game, but MVS should be a boom-or-bust WR3 option.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Cardinals will undoubtedly be throwing a lot in this one as 17(!)-point underdogs to Kansas City. Kirk has been the most consistent fantasy WR in Arizona, averaging just under 13 PPR points per game in his past 6 contests. There's always some risk in this low-floor offense, especially now that there is a new coordinator who may try to get DJ and Fitz more involved, but Kirk's upside makes him a decent WR3 option in deeper PPR formats.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Moore was a big letdown in a great matchup last Sunday, but he may have been limited by Carolina playing from way ahead most of the day. I wouldn't expect the same result in the Steel City. Pittsburgh isn't as tantalizing a matchup as Tampa, but it's not far behind. The Steelers allow the 6th-most WR points per game. I don't know if this will come up in the game, but the Steelers also have allowed 10 yards per carry to WRs on the 4 attempts they've faced, and Moore is averaging 17 yards per rush on 7 carries. I'd expect a carry or 2 for DJ again. If you were burned by Moore last week, you may hesitate to roll the dice again, but I would be willing to go back to that well.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Nick Mullens, SF (Wk. 10: vs. NYG.): Mullens technically isn't a rookie after spending all of 2017 on the 49ers practice squad, but I'll make an exception and include him after his breakout NFL debut last Thursday. I'd be surprised if Mullens manages to replicate his performance this week. The Giants allowed fewer than 240 passing yards in 5 games out of 8, and a total of just 5 TD passes in those 5 games. There is some appeal in deeper 2-QB leagues or as a cheap DFS tournament option, but he carries a ton of risk.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Darnold fell flat on his face in a plus matchup last week, and gets a much tougher one this Sunday. The Bills have allowed 10 fantasy points or fewer to 4 of the last 7 QBs they've faced, and they've allowed more than 1 passing touchdown to just one of them. Darnold isn't worth the risk even in 2QB leagues this week.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): There is some deep league PPR upside for Hines, but Jacksonville allows just the 7th-fewest RB points per game and has given up the 2nd-fewest RB receptions. Wilkins is stuck behind Marlon Mack on early downs. Mack's big performances late have made Wilkins useless for fantasy purposes.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 10: @LAR): Even if Chris Carson sits, Penny just isn't getting enough opportunities to be a useful option. Mike Davis is going to see the lion's share of the work if Carson is out.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Tre'Quan has struggled to breakout as the Saints' WR2, and New Orleans added Dez Bryant this week. Smith may still work as the number 2 guy this week, and there's always big potential as the WR2 in this offense, but he's got no more than 3 catches in a game and has only topped 44 yards once. If you're considering using him, keep a close eye on the expected playing time for Dez this week.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 10: @Phi.): I was tempted to call Gallup a sleeper this week, but it's hard to get too excited about his upside in this offense even if he's the WR2. Philly has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game, and Gallup has averaged 3 catches for 66 yards in the past 2 games. There's some upside if you want to roll the dice on him as a DFS punt option, but I probably wouldn't consider him for much more than that.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Goedert is basically a TD dart throw this week against a defense that has allowed just 2 tight end scores on the year. He's posted a total of 10-111-2 over the past 5 games.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Herndon's role has been growing, but he faces a tough matchup this week. The Bills rank 4th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends, and have allowed an average of 2-26 per game over the past 5 games and gave up 2 scores to the position in that span. You're basically praying for a TD if you play him.
Deep-League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 10: @KC): The Chiefs have been improving steadily against the pass, so Rosen is probably no more than a QB2 in the deepest of leagues, but Rosen has had an extra week to get ready for this game and the new offensive coordinator had an extra week to get David Johnson more involved. As improved as they are, Kansas City has still allowed the 6th-most QB points per game. Rosen has a reasonable chance to post his best fantasy game of the year.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Tevin Coleman seems to have a firm grasp on the receiving work out of the backfield, but Ito continues to play a significant role as a runner. He's an intriguing flex option this week against a Browns' team that has allowed a league-high 12 RB rushing scores and ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. He's a better option in non-PPR leagues.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): This might not be the best week to run Adams out there in lineups with the Cowboys ranking 4th in run defense DVOA. Josh's recent success has come as a runner, not as a receiver. Still, his 9-61 rushing day before last week's bye should at least earn him a bigger role moving forward in a wide-open backfield. He's worthy of a stash this week, and decent desperation option in deep leagues.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Callaway's efficiency has been improving in the last couple weeks, and this is a prime matchup with the Falcons allowing the 3rd-most WR points per game. Antonio remains an upside option in deeper leagues.
WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 10: @Ind.): Chark seemed to be ascending in this offense before the bye, posting 4 catches in back-to-back games. The matchup this week isn't enticing with the Colts ranking in the top-10 in the league at limiting WR points, but Chark is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues. He's got size and speed to burn, so his upside goes way up if the Jaguars start to utilize him downfield.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tough lineup decisions involving the rookies this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don't play any players who wind up being inactive. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
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- Written by David Biggs
Watch out for relative newcomers to regular fantasy production this week, like Ito Smith, Josh Adams, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. We know from history that one or more of these new names will help to take a team in your league to the championship. Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck in Week 10 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
22 Rush Yards, Team Leader
Alex Smith led the Washington Redskins with a whopping 22 yards rushing, all on one scramble in the 2nd quarter. The Redskins came into the game with the 8th best rushing attack in the league, fronted by a resurgent Adrian Peterson. The Falcons came into the game as one of the league's worst rush defenses (20th in Yards, 30th in TDs), so Peterson's whopping 1.9 yards per attempt were a big disappointment. Smith did manage to find Maurice Harris in a big way. Harris's 10 catches for 124 yards is better than he's ever gotten in an single year. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan, usually a very average QB outdoors, really stepped it up with 29 fantasy points, the third best QB total of the week. Even Julio Jones finally found the end zone, his first time this season. Jones is 2nd in yardage, while managing just 11th in fantasy points. Only he and Keenan Allen make the top 30 of fantasy WRs with 1 TD reception.
151.9 QB Rating
This week's QB rating leader isn't Mahomes or the aforementioned Ryan, who had an excellent day. It's not even Drew Brees, though his 137.0 rating was impressive. No, I'm talking about the one and only Nick Mullens, a guy that NONE of you (or us) had heard about before Thursday night. The undrafted free agent couldn't ask for a better or less caring opponent than the current iteration of the Oakland Raiders. Mullens averaged 14.6 yards per pass attempt, had a better than a 72% completion rate and threw for 3 TDs on only 22 attempts. Along the way, Mullens proved the George Kittle is a top TE, regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Kittle has the 2nd most points overall at his position, thanks to a few of his peers having a bye week. Regardless of that, it's an impressive spot for a guy whose ADP was 129, basically Mr. Irrelevant in a lot of drafts. Word is that Mullens will start again next week against the Giants, an easy matchup. The following week the 49ers play the Bucs, I could easily see Mullens earning the starting job for the rest of the season, if he can keep playing like he did on Thursday night.
996 Rushing Yards
Tom Brady seems obsessed with getting to 1000 rushing yards, and was within one yard on Sunday night, prompting everyone to assume he was going to sneak for a TD. Instead, the Packers got a surprising, but ultimately futile, fourth-down goal-line stand. In the end, Brady wasn't going to hold any milestones, due to his ultimate rushing nemesis: taking a knee at the end of games. Three kneel-downs have left him at 996 career rushing yards. In his career, with a lead and less than 2 minutes to go, Brady has 135 rushing attempts for a net of -115 yards. By comparison, famous non-runner Peyton Manning has -104 yards in 137 carries in the same game situation. Peyton even managed to leave Denver with a net of -55 yards. I'm getting off track, but maybe that's because the Patriots and Packers left me with nothing to talk about fantasy-wise. A matchup between two of the best QBs in history left us with a combined 3 passing TDs and 553 passing yards between them. No, I'm not counting Julian Edelman's 37 yard toss to James White.
8 Consecutive 300 Yard Passing Games
At the risk of becoming a Patrick Mahomes/Adam Thielen/Todd Gurley column, I'm going to squeeze in a quick update on all three players in one blurb. First off, the good - Patrick Mahomes threw for 375 yards and another 3 TDs, extending his league lead in both categories. His interceptions now stand at 7 in the last 5 games. He's thrown at least one in each of those games, and that's a streak I'm sure he's eager to end. He is now just one game from tying Drew Brees' all time record of 9 straight games with 300 passing yards. Next week he faces the Cardinals, who are 7th in the league giving up passing yards, so matching Brees on this record won't be easy. Next, the bad - Adam Thielen, who went into the day tied with Calvin Johnson for 8 straight 100 yard receiving games. Thielen managed just 22 yards on 4 catches, though he found the end zone for the 6th straight game, saving his day for fantasy owners, but ending his streak. Finally the ugly, and I mean the Rams who finally lost a game. OK, ugly is a bit of a stretch, but Todd Gurley did put up his worst game of the season - just 13.90 points (also a stretch to call ugly). The silver lining for Gurley owners is that he is now far more likely to be playing for real in week 16, since the Rams no longer have control of home field in the playoffs.
2 of the Top 5 WRs Owned in Less than 2% of Yahoo Leagues
OK, this title is a mouthful, but what I'm getting at is that Adam Humphries (2% owned) and Curtis Samuel (1% owned) both finished in the top 5 points at WR this week (and for once, I don't expect anyone on Monday night to ruin those numbers). Humphries led his team in receiving, catching all 8 of his targets and finding the end zone twice. Amazingly for the Bucs, Mike Evans caught just one of his 10 targets. Sometimes it's a little Fitzmagic, sometimes it's a bit Fitztragic. Your mileage may vary. What I'm getting at is that RBs are just astoundingly more reliable this year. To find a player who's similarly available in Yahoo leagues, you must go to the RB18 of the week, Kapri Bibbs, owned in 3% of leagues, who managed 9.5 points on 4 touches. A look at the top 18 WRs would also include Cordarrelle Patterson (5%), Maurice Harris (0%), and Josh Doctson (8%). I suppose the right move here is to trade your unreliable WRs for some solid RBs before your league's trade deadline.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
We are over the halfway point of the season already! Time is indeed flying by.
If you have been following along, you should be in a good place to make a second run at the top spot in your confidence pool…you’re welcome!
Week 9 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
13 – Chicago over BUFFALO – Normally I don’t condone putting a road team on the top point line. But, I mean, Nathan Peterman…
12 – CAROLINA over Tampa Bay – Fitzmagic is back…but it won’t be enough to win in Charlotte.
11 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – Losing to the Saints and in Carolina isn’t exactly something to hang your heads over. Baltimore will be out to show they are still the force of the AFC North this year.
10 – SEATTLE over Los Angeles Chargers – In a battle of “Shouldn’t they be better than they are?” Seattle is lucky that the game is played with the 12th Man.
9 – Kansas City Chiefs over CLEVELAND – This would be a week for Baker and the boys to show that they can handle the in-house turmoil of this week … unfortunately they play the Chiefs.
8 – MINNESOTA over Detroit – The Vikings were embarrassed in front of the home crowd last week. Look for them to take out their frustrations on the Lions.
7 – WASHINGTON over Atlanta – I don’t think there is a more confusing team than the Falcons. They should be…you know…good…right?
6 – DALLAS over Tennessee – I would like to take this time to apologize to the fans in Nashville. This slide can be blamed on me predicting them to win the division.
5 – NEW ENGLAND over Green Bay – No better time for the Packers to trade away the best player in the mediocre secondary then days before playing Tom Brady.
4 – Houston over DENVER – DeShaun Watson gets another weapon…who just last week was practicing daily against the opposition! My BOLD PREDICITON for this week is that DESHAUN WATSON WILL HAVE OVER 400 TOTAL YARDS.
3 – MIAMI over New York Jets – Is it odd that I think this will end up being a pretty good game?
2 – SAN FRANCISCO over Oakland – Enjoy it 9er fans! You are picked to win!
1 – NEW ORLEANS over Los Angeles Rams – If you ever think that the Rams will lose, the one-point line is where the game belongs.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it about halfway through the NFL season, so it's time to kick your playoff push for the fantasy playoffs into high gear. This week is going to challenge many fantasy teams with SIX NFL teams on a bye, and among them several peak fantasy performers. With that in mind, there are going to be some unexpected rookies who are going to push themselves into the usable range in shallower leagues. There were also some trades this week that may have opened up new opportunities for a couple rookies. Before I dive into the week 9 breakdown, I did want to mention one rookie who is sitting out this week on bye. Eagles' rookie Josh Adams is well worth a pickup after providing a solid rushing effort last week in a wide open backfield. He has a chance to be a top-30 back down the stretch if his performance continues. Now let's look at the outlook for the rest of the rooks...
Rookies to Start:
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Royce Freeman is likely going to be sidelined this week and Lindsay has done well to establish himself as a weekly RB2 even with Freeman healthy. The Texans aren't an inviting matchup, ranking 1st in the league in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, but there's no reason to sit Lindsay in a week with so many top options on byes.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Chubb also will likely be a beneficiary of all of the byes this week. Saquon, Marlon Mack, Joe Mixon and David Johnson are all off this week, and Kansas City allows more RB fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. The Browns' offense has been sputtering lately, and things are in flux with the coaching changes, but Chubb should be a solid RB2 in a plus matchup this week. The only fear is that game script may get away from him with the Browns a 10-point underdog.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): KC's been sharp against the pass in the last 2 weeks, but they've still allowed the 7th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Mayfield has been less than stellar over the past couple weeks, but he's recorded at least 1 touchdown in every start he's made this year, and the coaching changes may provide a boost to Mayfield and the offense. With 6 QBs out this week, Mayfield makes for a reasonable QB2 option.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In 2-QB leagues, just about everyone is in play this week. Darnold strikes me as more of a desperation option, but there is some reason for optimism. His yardage totals have been low (more than 210 passing yards just twice in 8 games), but the Dolphins have coughed up multiple TDs in 4 of the past 5 contests, and have given up 14 total passing TDs in those weeks. They also rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. There are worse fill-in options this week for 2-QB formats.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): You're almost certainly going to play Kerryon if you have him given how he's played lately, especially with the byes and with the Lions likely to employ a more balanced approach with Golden Tate shipped off to Philly. The issue for Kerryon this week is the matchup, and the possible return of Theo Riddick. Minnesota has allowed just one team's RB group to top 60 rushing yards in the past 4 weeks, and they rank 10th in run defense DVOA. Theo may cut into his passing game work. This makes Johnson a risky RB2 for week 9.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 9: vs. GB): Keep a close eye on the injury report with Michel. He got in a limited practice on Saturday before not playing on Monday night, so there is a decent chance he plays this week. It's a solid matchup if he's able to suit up with Green Bay ranking 24th in run defense DVOA. He's a worthy flex or RB2 option if he's able to play. The Pats are unlikely to hold him back if they played Cordarrelle Patterson in his stead on Monday.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ridley may even be in play for you as a WR2 if you're hard up due to byes. He's been quiet lately after his early season TD barrage, being held to under 50 receiving yards in each of the past 3 contests with zero scores, but he was the 2nd-most targeted Falcon last week after Julio Jones. This week is a good opportunity for him to get back on track against a middling Washington WR defense. There's risk here that he continues to stay in the 3-40-0 range, but I like his chances for a bounceback game.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk.9: vs. TB): This will be as good a week as any to take a risk on DJ Moore. The Bucs allow the 2nd most WR points per game, and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Moore's role has been rapidly increasing. Over the past 4 games he's tallied 18 catches for 237 yards, and 4 rushes for 75, and he set a season-high with 129 scrimmage yards in week 8. There's a chance he duplicates that feat in a great matchup.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): With Demaryius Thomas gone, the WR2 role in Denver is wide open for Sutton to take over. That role didn't exactly work out well for DT, but the Texans rank 30th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the number 2 WR. He's more of an upside play than a safe option this week, but the drop off in target competition should give him a higher floor moving forward.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. KC): If Freeman manages to play, he'll likely take a back seat to Phillip Lindsay and be eased back into action. Since the Texans rank 1st in run defense DVOA, this probably isn't the best spot to take a chance on a limited Freeman.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ito has upside as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but this isn't a great matchup. Washington has allowed just 90 total rushing yards and zero total TDs to running backs in the past 3 weeks, and they faced Zeke, Saquon, and McCaffrey in that stretch. Ito isn't on that level. I'd look elsewhere for RB help this week.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk.9: @Sea.): Ok, so you weren't actually considering playing Jackson this week, but he's definitely worth watching for those of you playing in dynasty leagues if Melvin Gordon is out again. Rookie scouting guru Matt Waldman compared Jackson with Jamaal Charles in this year's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and this may be the first real look we get at him. He was ultra-productive in college at Northwestern. If he impresses, he may be worth a stash in deeper dynasty formats.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Keke's status is still up in the air this week as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, and his overall outlook took a hit with the trade for Demaryius Thomas. Coutee will still have WR3 upside when healthy, but I'd probably steer clear this week. The Broncos' best corner Chris Harris Jr patrols the slot, and the Broncos rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs who aren't their team's #1 or 2.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk.9: vs. Ten.): Gallup seemed to be making strides when he posted his best game of the year before the bye (3-81-1)...then thee Cowboys went out and traded for Amari Cooper. Cooper's role as the team's WR1 should be obvious after the team spent a first round pick to acquire him. The rest of the WR group already was tough to figure out, and now there are less snaps and targets to divvy up between them. Keep Gallup parked on the bench until we see him emerge with Amari around.
WR Damion Ratley, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Ratley had just one catch in week 8, and it's likely that Rashard Higgins will return this week and push Ratley back to the bench.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Andrews continues to be the most involved TE in the Ravens' passing game, but it isn't resulting in fantasy success. Hurst did post his first career TD last Sunday after head coach John Harbaugh talked about getting him more involved, but it came in garbage time with Lamar Jackson at QB. Neither player is doing enough to trust this week.
TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Don't be fooled by the 2 touchdowns from last week, tight ends don't get featured in this offense. Thomas had just 4 catches all season prior to week 8, and in his 'breakout' 2-TD game he was asked to block on nearly two-thirds of the snaps he played. I wouldn't expect a repeat performance.
Rookies on Bye: QB Josh Rosen, ARI, RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB Josh Adams, PHI, RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND, RB Chase Edmonds, ARI, RB Mark Walton, CIN, WR Christian Kirk, ARI, WR DJ Chark, JAX, TE Dallas Goedert, PHI
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Trenton Cannon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The Dolphins are favored to win this game, and they've allowed the 9th-most RB receiving yards on the year. Cannon wasn't overly productive last week, but he will continue to play the 3rd-down role at least until Eli McGuire returns from IR. He's only an option in deep PPR leagues this week. Make sure that McGuire isn't returning this week before pulling the trigger.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): I'm still on the Tre'Quan train despite limited results over the past 2 weeks. Drew Brees likely won't be limited to 120 passing yards again in a game with the highest over/under of the week, and Smith is running as the Saints' WR2. He'll be hard to trust in anything but deeper leagues and DFS tournaments, but there is still big upside here.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Miller has been targeted 7 times in each of the last 2 weeks, and it seems there's a good chance A-Rob misses another game this week. The rookie has caught just 5 of those 14 targets for 72 yards and a score, but he's likely to avoid the coverage of Tre'Davious White since White rarely goes into the slot. Miller is a better option than teammate Taylor Gabriel this week.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk.9: @NE): Despite the return to action of Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison in week 8, Valdes-Scantling still played ahead of them. It may just be the Packers easing the injured guys back in, but if it continues here MVS has some decent upside. This tilt has shootout potential with the 2nd-highest O/U of the week.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Callaway finally had a game where he caught more than half of his targets, pulling in 5-of-6 opportunities and finding the end zonein week 8. The yardage was limited, but it was still a good sign to see his efficiency improve. The Browns will likely be throwing a lot this week, and the Chiefs are a good matchup for WRs. I'm not ready to fully trust Callaway, but he's an interesting upside play this week, especially as a cheap DFS tournament option.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): We haven't seen much of Hamilton yet, but with Demaryius shipped off to Houston he should step into the WR3 role that resulted in a few productive weeks for Courtland Sutton. DaeSean is an intriguing stash for deeper dynasty leagues to see how his role shakes out without DT.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): There isn't a lot of yardage upside with Herndon, but he's a better than average TD dart throw this week. The rookie tight end has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games, and the Dolphins have allowed 5 scores to the position in the last 3 contests.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your toughest lineup decisions this week that involve rookies. It could be a messy week with so many byes, so make sure to keep an extra close eye on the injury report this week to make sure all of your players suit up, and to look for unexpected opportunity that can benefit your team. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.