Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
You will not have any easier pick all year than when you pick the Minnesota Vikings as 16.5 point favorites this week home against the winless Buffalo Bills. I'll keep this part short and sweat. The Bills are very, very bad, and their best player, LeSean McCoy, has injured ribs. I will be surprised if they manage to score a touchdown against a tough Vikings defense.
Just in case you have already taken the Vikings, my next suggestion would be the New England Patriots, 6.5 point favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions. The Patriots rarely lose consecutive games and Bill Belichick relishes at the opportunity to crush former assistants. I am staying away from this one only because the Vikings have shown me more at this point of the season and are facing a rookie QB in Josh Allen rather than former pro bowler Matthew Stafford. I am planning on holding on to the Patriots until at least midway through the season when they really get rolling.
Cheers!
Drink Five!
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Things are starting to take shape.
Teams are starting to show who they are and thoughts of just being a “fluke win” or a “fluke loss” are flying out the window. Now that we have seen a few games, we have a pretty good idea what the league really looks like for this season.
Plus, if you have been following these picks for your pool, you’re doing pretty good! So let’s keep the momentum going!
Week 3 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – MINNESOTA over Buffalo – I’m setting the line for this game at 2.5 for this game…not for how much the Vikings will win by, but for how many points will score … I’ll take the under.
15 – JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee – I’m setting the line for…oh wait, already did that one. Titans won’t score much if any, that’s what I’m getting at here as well.
14 – BALTIMORE over Denver – I’m setting…yeah, you get it!
13 – PHILADELPHIA over Indianapolis – Hey, thanks for the whole Super Bowl thing, Nick. Carson’s back now so, I don’t know, maybe we’ll send you to Miami or something.
12 – KANSAS CITY over San Francisco – Can’t say that too many expected Patrick Mahomes to get off to such an historic start. Looks like the Chiefs will still have their AFC West stranglehold held tight.
11 – HOUSTON over New York Giants – DeShaun Watson made a statement last week – one that the Giants won’t be able to contain this week.
10 – ATLANTA over New Orleans – The Saints brought out the Fitzmagic to the world…then almost lost to the Browns. It looks like it may be a hard season in the Big Easy.
9 – TAMPA BAY over Pittsburgh – Speaking of the MVP front-runner, this is the final chance for Ryan Fitzpatrick to show the Bucs that Jameis should stay on the bench after his suspension is up. After giving up to Patrick Mahomes, it seems like Fitzmagic will run longer than we thought a month ago.
8 – Chicago over ARIZONA – It was a primetime matchup between these two teams where Dennis Green let us know that the Bears are who we THOUGHT they were. Between the Bears D and the Cardinals offense so far, we should see more of the defensive dominance that we saw that night.
7 – New England over DETROIT – Patriots lose a game…Patriots add Josh Gordon. Don’t make Tom and Bill mad!
6 – MIAMI over Oakland – Jon Gruden told reporter this week that “a good pass-rusher is hard to find.” … … … so will wins this year apparently.
5 – CAROLINA over Cincinnati – This could be the low-key game of the week candidate. I think Cam and the Panthers will be a little too much for the Bengals to take.
4 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Los Angeles Chargers – So what LA matchup do you think the locals are more interested in – Rams/Chargers or USC/UCLA?
3 – Green Bay over WASHINGTON – This game would be a lot higher on the list if I had more confidence in the durability of Aaron Rodgers’ knee.
2 – SEATTLE over Dallas – This once-potential NFC Championship Game is now nothing more than a game the Seahawks win because they are the home team.
1 – CLEVELAND over New York Jets – For over two years, it doesn’t get any bolder than this. My BOLD PREDICITON for this week is that THE BROWNS WILL WIN THIS WEEK!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an explosive first 2 weeks of the NFL season, but for the rookies it’s been a pretty disappointing start. Saquon Barkley has lived up to his considerable hype despite the Giants’ offensive line woes, but beyond him only Phillip Lindsay, Will Dissly, and Sam Darnold have shown consistent production so far. Two of those players are guys you probably hadn’t heard of before week 1, and the another one is a QB2 at best for fantasy purposes, which isn’t that useful for most leagues. There have been flashes from some of the more heralded rookies. Dante Pettis, DJ Moore, and Calvin Ridley have all made big plays, but need more consistent opportunities. Week 3 is yet another week where there aren’t many rookies I trust to start. There will come a point where more of them are productive, but in the meantime I’ll keep trying to identify some good guys to stash or take a shot on in DFS. Let’s dig into what to expect for week 3…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 3: @Hou.): Barkley is still an every week starter despite poor o-line play and substandard overall offensive play. He hasn’t been particularly efficient in the run game, but his usage in the passing game is going to make him a PPR star quickly. The Texans haven’t proven to be a matchup to avoid yet, and their pass rush with JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney should actually be a boost to Barkley’s upside this week catching dump off passes.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Lindsay has started his career with 2 consecutive games with 100+ scrimmage yards. He’ll be hard pressed to make it 3 against a formidable Ravens’ defense that has allowed the 2nd fewest RB points in the league so far, but the success he’s had so far at least has him in the conversation for a flex spot this week in spite of the matchup.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): His goal line usage gives him value, but his lack of consistent playing time has turned him into a TD-dependent flex option until things change. Freeman was out-snapped by both Devontae Booker and Lindsay last week. Some of that was due to a negative game script, but it’s still a little troubling.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Jarvis Landry is questionable and on a short week this week and Josh Gordon has been shipped off to New England. That leaves Callaway as potentially the number 1 receiver this week in Cleveland. He already saw his playing time jump from 17% of the snaps to 81% with Gordon out in week 2. There’s no reason to think that will drop this week. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, and should be an intriguing flex option this week in deeper leagues. He’s looking at a huge role and reasonable matchup. Bump him up a little if Landry isn’t able to play.
TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Tight end has been a bit of a wasteland after a few elite options so far this season. Injuries to Delanie Walker and Greg Olsen haven’t helped. One surprising bright spot has been Dissly. He had a huge performance in week 1, and seemed to be following it with a pedestrian performance in week 2 until a late TD catch. Garbage time points still count, and he’ll remain the Seahawks’ leading TE. The Cowboys have allowed the 8th-most PPR points to tight ends in the league in the first 2 weeks, so the matchup is a decent one. There are worse streamers out there than Dissly for this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Cle.): The Browns’ defense has been pretty solid against 2 pretty solid offenses. Darnold has been better than expected through his first 2 starts, but he’ll be a low-end QB2 this week at best.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 3: @Min.): Allen was less than stellar in his first pro start, and this week he gets to face another quality defense on the road with his best offensive weapon either out or limited (Shady McCoy). The Vikings have limited two quality QBs, Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo, to an average of 12.5 fantasy points apiece. Allen is much worse than that duo, with much worse talent around him.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 3: vs. NE): The Lions running game woes have continued into this season despite investing offseason resources in Kerryon and LeGarrette Blount. Kerryon has been seeing a respectable number of touches, but the production just hasn’t been there. He needs to start scoring touchdowns to really take off, but that will be tough on this team. Detroit has run 18 plays in the red zone this season. 17 of them were passes. The Lions’ defensive woes are real, and the Patriots will be playing angry after their letdown last weekend. I expect Detroit to be playing from behind again and abandoning the run early. It’s not a great spot to use Johnson.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Carlos Hyde had an inefficient performance in week 2 despite finding the end zone. He tallied just 43 yards on 16 carries. With a few more performances like that, Chubb’s role is sure to grow, but I don’t see a big shift in the backfield split this week. It also doesn’t help that the Jets are an uninviting matchup for backs. I’d avoid starting Chubb this week.
RBs Jordan Wilkins & Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 3: @Phi.): The backfield roles are very up in the air after the return of Marlon Mack. Everyone played about the same amount in week 2, and I’d expect Mack to start getting more work going forward. Hines will still get some opportunities in the passing game, and Wilkins will probably still handle some carries this week, but you can’t count on enough usage for either one of them to start them with any confidence. We’ll need to see how things trend with all 3 backs healthy for another week or 2.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Ito may be worth a stash in deeper leagues, but this is a bad week to roll the dice on him in DFS tournaments. The Saints have allowed just 4 running back receptions and the 3rd-fewest RB points total through 2 weeks. Smith will get some usage behind Tevin Coleman as long as Freeman is out, but I’m not too optimistic for him in week 3.
RB Mark Walton, CIN (Wk. 3: @Car.): Walton is a player to keep an eye on this week with Joe Mixon sidelined for a bit, but I’m not ready to buy into him as a stash just yet. He should dress this week after being a healthy scratch in each of the first two weeks, but Gio Bernard saw the vast majority of the work in games Mixon missed last year, and I’d expect the same this year until the team shows me different. They did also sign Thomas Rawls this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to be much of a factor.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Sutton is trending in the right direction in terms of how many snaps he’s playing, but his production has been inconsistent. He’s going to have some weeks where his point totals spike, but as long as Demaryius and Manny Sanders are around he’s going to stay inconsistent. The matchup this week is against the formidable Ravens defense, so I wouldn’t bank on this being one of those spike weeks for Sutton.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Kirk was used quite a bit more in week 2 than he was in week 1 (5 targets after just 2 in week 1), but it’s hard to even consider using him until the Cardinals’ offense starts playing better. I don’t see that happening until Josh Rosen is under center. If the offense continues to sputter, that could happen sooner than expected.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Miller certainly has shown some upside in the first 2 weeks, but to really make good on his promise he’s going to have to pass Taylor Gabriel on the depth chart, and he’s going to need some better play from Mitch Trubisky. As for week 3, the Bears are favored by nearly a touchdown and should lean on Jordan Howard’s running a bit more than they have so far. The passing volume won’t be high enough to take a chance on Miller.
Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Gallup is dealing with low snap and target counts, and an offense that leans on the rushing attack and slowing down the pace of the game. Until the passing attack starts to play at a higher level and Gallup starts playing more, he needs to be avoided in fantasy lineups.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): He’s seen just 2 targets in the first 2 weeks, and the Raiders have allowed the 4th-fewest TE points in the league through 2 weeks.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 3: @Det.): The Lions have allowed over 170 rushing yards in each of the first 2 weeks. The usage split between Michel and Rex Burkhead is still a bit of a question mark going forward, but I like Michel’s chances of being heavily involved. The matchup is a great one, and he’ll be a sneaky DFS tournament play this week as long as Burkhead doesn’t get workhorse carries.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Coach Pete Carroll stated that Chris Carson remains the starter after not playing him at all in the 4th quarter on Monday night, but it looks like the window is opening for Penny to take on a bigger role. Carroll also expressed a desire to run the ball more this week, so there could be more carries to go around for everyone. Penny is also a better receiver than Carson, and Dallas has allowed a 45-yard receiver in each of the first 2 weeks. There’s a chance for Penny to make a nice impact in the passing game as well. I wouldn’t trust him in season-long leagues, but there is some DFS tournament upside here.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Ridley got much more involved in week 2, seeing 3 more targets than Mohammed Sanu and scoring his first career TD. His increased usage also coincided with the Falcons finally seeming to exorcise some of their red zone demons. New Orleans has allowed the most receiving yards and TDs to wide receivers in the league through 2 weeks. It’s a great week to consider Ridley in DFS tournaments, or to take a shot on him as a flex in deeper leagues.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 3: @KC): Pettis’s status really depends on whether or not Marquise Goodwin is able to play this week. The matchup is a juicy one. The Chiefs have allowed the 3rd-most WR points in the league so far, and Pettis will play major snaps if Goodwin sits again. He’ll be a dart throw in DFS if Goodwin plays, but I’d expect 6+ targets if Marquise is out again. Against this defense, that kind of work gives him WR3 upside.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 3: @TB): Washington did score his first TD last week, but caught just 1-of-5 targets for 14 yards in the process. That doesn’t sound like a promising performance, but he played 66-of-82 snaps in what is typically one of the more prolific passing offenses in the league. If that snap count repeats itself this week, there’s a ton of upside in a solid matchup against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far. Given his increased role, Washington is a decent low-cost option in DFS tournaments.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Moore is shaping up to be a good buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues and deeper redraft leagues. He’s only played 17 snaps in each of the first two weeks, but head coach Ron Rivera has been saying that they need to use him more moving forward. He managed to post a 51-yard TD catch last week. I wouldn’t take a chance on him this week, but I would consider putting an offer into the Moore owner in your league to see if you can get him at a discount.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): The Ravens’ tight end split has been a bit frustrating so far. They’ve pretty much split the targets evenly between Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams and Andrews, but this matchup is a good one for the position. Denver has been notorious for being stingy to wide receivers and vulnerable to tight ends. The Broncos allowed the 4th-most TE points in 2017, and have coughed up the 6th-most so far this year including a big game from Will Dissly. Andrews already found the end zone once last week and has 3 catches in each game so far. He’s a TD dart throw for DFS tournaments.
That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you with some tougher lineup decisions this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the rest of the week to make sure you aren’t starting any players who end up sitting. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by David Biggs
Week 3 brings us some actual trends that we can use to help our rankings be just a touch more predictive, which is great news! And, as always, injuries early in the season have turned some fantasy bench-warmers into every-week starters: Tevin Coleman and Giovani Bernard are great examples of top 20 RB plays this week (in standard - higher in PPR) that would have been much lower on the rankings if not for injuries to starters Devonta Freeman and Joe Mixon, respectively. We're also looking at Cam Newton, Kenny Stills, and Will Fuller as great WR plays for week 3. Good luck and feel free to reach out on Twitter at @drinkfive with your lineup questions. Cheers!
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
80 Touchdowns
With 10 TD throws in his first two games of the season, Patrick Mahomes is now on pace to throw a cool 80 touchdowns on the year. Give him the MVP right now, because he's going to beat Peyton's record by 25. On a serious note, he's going to need to keep this pace up if his defense keeps playing like...well, like crap. The Chiefs D have given up 65 points in two weeks, and sure, those opponents were playing catch-up, but giving up over 1000 yards is alarming to say the least. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are 2-0 behind the strength of a historic start. Mahomes joins only Drew Bledsoe with at least 4 TD in each of his first 2 games to start the season...and also our next, magic man.
4 TD and 400 Passing Yards
The Fitzmagic is real, folks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the only QB in league history to throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs in the first two games of the season. Along the way, he's thrown 4 TDs of at least 50 yards or more and even put one in on the ground - all by himself! The Buccaneers season so far has consisted of blowing out their division rivals New Orleans, and then taking down the Super Bowl champs, two events that really mean that Jameis Winston will not be returning to the starting lineup in Week 4. The Bucs are one of several 2-0 teams that are a surprise, like Miami and Cincy. Unlike those two teams, the Bucs look like they could actually be the best team in their division. Finally, congrats to DeSean Jackson, who tied Jerry Rice for the most 60+ yard TDs, notching his 23rd against his old team on a 75-yard catch and run on the first offensive snap of the game.
28 Receptions in Two Games
If you own Michael Thomas in a PPR league, you're definitely happy with his two straight 30+ point performances. His 28 catches in two games are 10 more than the next closest players - a 3-way tie between Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Adam Thielen. Thomas has been targeted 30 times and he is catching everything that comes his way. He's basically the entire receiving core of the team. Aside from Alvin Kamara's 15 catches, Thomas has more receptions than the rest of the team combined (21). He's a cool 20 points ahead of the next closest WR, and is second overall in PPR fantasy points, only behind the afore mentioned Fitzmagic. He's on pace for well over 200 catches, smashing the record of 143 by Marvin Harrison. This is, of course, an absurd (but fun) extrapolation.
8.4 Yards per Carry
This year's early season rushing leader is not one that many people predicted. Matt Breida has 184 yards on only 22 carries. His usage is mostly thanks to the absence of Jerick McKinnon, but he's making the most of it. The 49ers have given him 11 carries in each game, and I expect that number to go up. They should have given him more carries in the 4th quarter to help ice the game away, so I expect his production to continue improving. His next three games are against the Chiefs, Chargers and Cardinals - all teams that have a very porous defense. Breida is only owned in 61% of Yahoo leagues, so while not a hidden gem by any means, he is a guy who needs to be in starting lineups in most, if not all leagues.
1 out of 10 Tight Ends
This season, the top 10 TEs have been the model of inconsistency. Only one of the top 10, Eric Ebron, has more than 6 points in both games this season. Most guys have one big game and one dud, not great, but you'll take it. What makes Ebron's consistency surprising is that he went into the season and wasn't considered the top TE on his own team - that belonged to Jack Doyle. Doyle has been targetted more than Ebron, but hasn't been productive. Meanwhile, Ebron has managed to find the end zone in each game and may become a favorite target of Andrew Luck, who had a good showing in Washington on Sunday. Only Will Dissly has a chance to save some face for his positional group, when he suits up tonight in Chicago.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
The first week of the NFL season is in the books and it was a real humdinger for Survivor Pools. For the pool I participate in, we saw over half of the 1275 entrants eliminated after week one. A vast majority of the L's came at the hands of Fitzmagic defeating the New Orleans Saints 48-40 in a stunning upset. If you followed my advice and went with the Ravens over the Bills, then you were raising your glass over and over again as the Ravens laid one on the Bills 47-3.
In last week's article I laid out the winning strategy to employ this year, which is to pick the team playing the Bills. This week I suggest you stick to that winning formula and choose the San Diego Chargers of Los Angeles/ Carson. The Chargers are playing their second of sixteen road games this season in Buffalo as rookie quarterback Josh Allen gets his first NFL start. The Chargers and their highly touted defense were lit up by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but surely they will bounce back against a Bills team that couldn't get anything going in week 1.
Now, if anyone can screw this up it is the Chargers. After all they are the only team defeated by the Browns in the last 2 seasons. But, I think it safe to take them here as 7.5 point road favorites and not have to worry about them the rest of the year. Look for them to cover that spread as well.
Cheers!
Drink Five
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- Written by Mike Mocerino
Well, last week was a doozy. My Steelers tied the Browns (loss in my book), we had a few injuries, and the leading QB was Fitzmagic. Hopefully you came away with some W’s and made some moves on waivers to improve the squad!
Week 1 recap
Last week, we watched Alfred Morris and Matt Breida vs the Vikings defense. I predicted that Morris would get the goal line work and get into the end zone. Well, I was right in the fact that Morris got the redzone carries, but he fumbled while reaching for the goal line that might have cost the 49ers the game. Carries were pretty evenly split. Brieda had 11 carries for 46 years, and Morris had 12 carries for 38 yards. Missed my prediction as they are still going to be splitting carries, but Morris could be a sneaky flex play this week against the lions.
The second watch-list was on the Indianapolis backfield. Wilkins did get the bulk of the carries and didn’t look too bad considering the OL problems for Indy. He rushed 14 times for 40 yards and caught all three balls coming his way. Signs are pointing to Mack coming back this week so it will be interesting to see how this muddy backfield will work moving forward. A positive was Nyheim Hines. If you are in a PPR league I would urge you to grab Hines. He caught 7 of 9 targets (only 33 yards) but lined up all over the field. Andrew Luck passed the ball 53 times on Sunday. I don’t expect him to throw 50+ every game, but do expect the Colts to be down and relying on Lucks arm to stay in games.
The final watch-list from week 1 was Aaron Rodgers' targets. I predicted that Allison would be the second highest targeted receiver on the Packers and he was! (tied With Adams who I expected to lead). I was wrong about Cobb. He looked great, and the connection he has with Rodgers can’t be ignored. His ankles look fantastic as well! Cobb, Allison, and Adams all ended with good fantasy days and touchdowns. Hopefully you grabbed Allison, he has solidified his role in the offense.
Denver Backfield
Royce Freeman was the highest drafted Bronco RB and had a decent first game out there. He rushed 15 times for 71 yards but didn’t have any targets in the passing game. The surprise last week was fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay. Lindsay rushed 15 times for 71 yards and caught 2 passes for 31 yards and a Touchdown. Freeman owners were worried about Booker stealing carries, but now it looks Lindsay is the threat and this is a full-blown committee. It will be interesting to see how the carries are distributed this week against Oakland.
Prediction –Both rookie running backs continue making the most of their time on the field. Lindsay has some flashy plays but Freeman finds the end zone leaving fantasy owners scratching their heads week 3 on who the back to own is in Denver.
J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets
One of my biggest surprises week 1 was the Jets Lions game. I expected a blowout, but did not expect the Jets to be on the winning end. Except for the very first play, Darnold looked great. He was poised in the pocket and managed the game well. He also targeted Quincy Enunwa 10 times! The next closest Jet had 3 targets. I tried to grab Enunwa everywhere this week as he is Darnold’s first read and should continue to get a good chunk of targets weekly. With Jermaine Kearse coming back this week it’ll be interesting to see how those targets are distributed.
In the Jets backfield, Powell got the start but split carries with Crowell. Powell had 13 rushes for 65 yards and Crowell (CAWWW) had 10 touches for 102 yards and 2 TDs. Most of those yards came in garbage time on a 62-yard TD run, but the Crow looked good! If the offense continues to produce both backs could be viable flex/RB2 plays.
Prediction- With the Dolphins coming to New York, Darnold has another great game but spreads the ball around a bit more this week. Crow finds the end zone twice for the second week in a row and the Jets move to 2-0.
Steelers vs Chiefs
Being a Steeler fan, they are always on my must watch list. This week is special because they are coming off a horrible week 1 and run into an offense that is arguably scary then theirs. Tyreek Hill is a freak. He went 7-169-2 and added another touchdown on a punt return. He is no doubt electric and silenced the few critics out there that didn’t think he could keep up with limited opportunities. We also got a glimpse of Patrick Mahomes cannon. In a game where Kelce and Hunt were quiet, the Chiefs still managed to put up 38 points against a stout Chargers secondary.
On the other side of the fence is the Steelers. After a heart breaking tie to open the season, there is still no Le'Veon Bell. James Conner shined in his first start rushing 31 times for 135 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also caught 5 of 6 targets for 57 yards and is a strong RB1 until Bell decides it’s time to come back. Bell was seen in Miami at a club until the wee hours of the morning on Tuesday so I do not expect that to be anytime soon. Even without Bell, the Steelers have an offense that can keep up with the Chiefs and I expect our Defense to get after Mahomes.
Prediction – In the highest scoring game of the week, the Steelers come away with a win. Antonio Brown is the #1 WR of the week and Kelce and Hunt owners can sleep well with great bounce back performances.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Just when you think you have things figured out, you get a big WEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLL!
That pretty much sums up the first week of every NFL season. We have an off-season full of time to put together our expectations on what we will see. Then the curveballs…
“A game in New Orleans when Jameis Winston is suspended and Ryan Fitzpatrick is under center? The Bucs don’t have a chance!”
WEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLL!
“Oh the Lions lucked out getting their first game against the youngest quarterback in NFL history. The secondary will have a field day! SEE! First pass=pick 6! This will be a breeze!”
WEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLL!
It doesn’t look like things will get any easier as we have a strong slate of even matchups this week. But, someone has to make the predictions!
Week 2 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – Yes the Raiders looked bad against the Rams last week, but a lot of that had to do with how good their defense is!
15 – NEW ORLEANS over Cleveland – A home game against the Browns is the best cure for a dose of Fitzmagic.
14 – PITTSBURGH over Kansas City – I can see Ben Roethlisberger having a big game against a now not-as-scary KC secondary.
13 – TENNESSEE over Houston – In this era of mobile quarterbacks you can either be a Cam Newton or an RGIII…last week’s performance has me a little worried about DeShaun Watson.
12 – ATLANTA over Carolina – The Panthers may have been the least impressive winning team of Week 1.
11 – SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit – After a big first defensive play of the season, the Lions really made it seem like it is going to be a long fall/winter in Detroit.
10 – Los Angeles Chargers over BUFFALO – Speaking of long fall/winter seasons – My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that WHEN THE SEASON ENDS, THE BILLS WILL BE “ON THE CLOCK.”
9 – DENVER over Oakland – So so many long fall’s and winter’s…
8 – CINCINNATI over Baltimore – Sorry Baltimore, you can’t play the Bills every week.
7 – CHICAGO over Seattle – Who are the Bears? (cue the Dennis Green references) Are they the first half Bears or the second half Bears? I feel that we’ll find out they are real this Monday.
6 – GREEN BAY over Minnesota – This pick is based on the uncertainty of Aaron Rodger’s status. If he plays, raise the Pack up the lines. In he doesn’t then move him down.
5 – JACKSONVILLE over New England – The Jags will be ready to go for their home opener/AFC Championship rematch…that they should have won.
4 – Philadelphia over TAMPA BAY – This is probably the most exciting matchup of backup quarterbacks in league history!
3 – WASHINGTON over Indianapolis – So this game will happen…
2 – NEW YORK JETS over Miami – I said that Sam Darnold was going to be the best quarterback of this class. He’s off to a good start of proving me right!
1 – DALLAS over New York Giants – How long ago does it seem that this was a marquee matchup? Now…not so much!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Wasn’t it great to have real live regular season NFL action back? We finally have some real game data on this year’s rookie class, and at least for one week the results were surprising. Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman performed about as expected, but everyone else was a surprise. The other standout rookies of week 1 were Sam Darnold, Phillip Lindsay, Dante Pettis, and Will Dissly. You probably hadn’t heard of at least two of those 4 prior to Sunday. As for the more heralded rookies, it was less than a memorable week 1. DJ Moore, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Rashaad Penny, Calvin Ridley, James Washington, and Dallas Goedert were all pretty quiet in their openers. While I expect things to pick up for them eventually, most of them will be tough to trust in the immediate future. Let’s take a look at what to expect from week 2. It looks like another week with a lot of guys to sit and a decent number of sleepers…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 2: @Dal.): Don’t overthink this. His volume might be capped just a bit by the Cowboys’ style of play. They slow the game down as much as possible, but I expect his talent to shine through again. He’s got too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench this week.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): Although it was his teammate and fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay who got most of the notice on Sunday, Freeman had himself a pretty solid debut as well. He looks like the clear lead back on early downs. He carried 15 times for 71 yards, and likely won’t be dealing with quite as much competition for carries from Lindsay in future weeks. The roles look like they’re going to shake out with Lindsay being more of a third down back. He doesn’t have the size to hold up to 15 carries per week over a full season. The matchup this week is a decent one. Oakland’s defense is a shell of what it once was, and Freeman should finish as a low-end RB2 in standard leagues, and a reasonable flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): As I just mentioned with Freeman above, Lindsay is getting a lot of love in waiver wire columns this week, but his performance against the Seahawks may be the ceiling for Phillip. At just 5’8”, 190, Lindsay isn’t built to be a primary ball carrier. He’s going to get most of his work as a 3rd-down receiving back. His week one results were more due to him having the hot hand in the opener. He’ll be a weekly flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 2: @SF): LeGarrette Blount is dealing with a shoulder injury that could limit his snaps, and Kerryon gets to face a 49ers defense that is without Reuben Foster for one more week. Week 1 was less than ideal for Johnson, but I like his fantasy prospects for this week better than fellow high rookie picks Nick Chubb and Rashaad Penny. I’m still a believer that Kerryon will assert himself early in the season, and the Lions will be eager to wash the taste of their embarrassing loss to the Jets away. He’s still not more than a low-end flex option this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Allen will become the 2nd Buffalo Bills rookie QB to make his first career start against the Chargers in as many years. Nathan Peterman famously threw 5 first-half interceptions in his start last year. While I don’t expect things to be that bad for Allen, he has a worse offensive line and arguably worse weapons than Peterman was working with in 2017. Don’t expect a usable stat line unless it’s heavily padded by rushing numbers.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 2: @NO): Chubb carried just 3 times in the season opener, compared to 22 totes for Carlos Hyde and 5 for Duke Johnson. There’s no reason to expect a big jump in workload this week, and therefore no reason to start him against the Saints. His time will come eventually, but for now the Browns are content with Hyde leading the way.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): To say that Penny was inefficient last week compared to Chris Carson would be a drastic understatement. Both players had 7 carries. Carson turned them into more than 7 yards per carry. Penny turned them into 8 yards. Penny did have some receiving game usage and will likely stay involved this week, but he got the opposite of a vote of confidence from coach Pete Carroll this week and faces a pretty feisty Bears’ defense. I’d keep him parked on the bench for this week.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): For the time being, Sutton will be nothing more than a weekly low-cost DFS dart throw. The Broncos passing attack has long been focused on Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, and week one showed that isn’t changing this season. Manny and DT combined for 21 of Denver’s 39 passing targets. Sutton will be battling for scraps most weeks. There may be some weeks where he comes up big, but it will be tough to guess when they’ll happen. His future looks bright, but his path is currently a little roadblocked.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Ridley was all but invisible in the opener. He’s not nearly high enough in the pecking order for targets to start him in any format at this point.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Moore played just 17 snaps and wasn’t targeted once in the opener. It’s a stunning turn of events for a guy who had a good camp and was a first-round draft pick. The Panthers are bound to get him more involved eventually, and may do so as early as this week with Olsen out. I’m waiting until I see it on the field to be willing to play Moore.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Like DJ Moore, Gallup was curiously under-utilized in week 1. Gallup played with the first string throughout the preseason and looked like he had the most upside of any receiver on the team, but he ran just 17 routes in week 1 and caught his only target for 9 yards. I need to see him get more playing time before I can suggest doing anything other than sitting him.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 2: @LAR): A lot was made of Christian Kirk losing out to Chad Williams for the number 2 WR job in Arizona, but it looks like both guys are going to be pretty useless for fantasy purposes for the time being. Kirk caught just 1 pass for 4 yards in the opener, and Williams didn’t catch any. The Rams boast one of the best sets of corners in the league. Keep Kirk under wraps this week.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Goedert was a big disappointment in week 1, catching just 1 of the 3 targets he saw in the opener. I thought he’d see much more work with Alshon Jeffrey sidelined, but it was not to be. I’m not that optimistic he’ll be more involved this week against a Bucs team that is more vulnerable to WRs than TEs. Tampa allowed just the 3rd-fewest points to tight ends last year, and the most to WRs. They lost CB Vernon Hargreaves for the year in the opener, and also gave up the 3rd-most WR points in week 1. Look for Nelson Agholor to pile up catches again, and don’t be surprised when Mike Wallace posts a surprising big game.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Gesicki caught just 1 pass in the opener after being talked up by head coach Adam Gase in the preseason. I wouldn’t expect much more production this week at the Meadowlands.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Darnold threw a pick-6 on his first NFL pass attempt, but everything after that went his way on Monday night. The Dolphins were 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last year, and Darnold gets Jermaine Kearse back healthy this week. He should be able to duplicate what he did Monday, and that makes him an interesting option in 2-QB leagues or as a cheaper DFS play.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Keep an eye on the Pats injury updates here. Rex Burkhead surprisingly popped up on the injury report in the concussion protocol Wednesday. Michel has been getting in limited practices so far this week, and I think the Pats will push for him to play if Burkhead can’t get cleared. The Jaguars stingy defense has been vulnerable to RBs putting up fantasy points on them, and Michel has a chance at a solid debut. Saquon put up 128 scrimmage yards and a TD against these same Jaguars in week 1, and Michel should be the primary rusher if he’s able to play and Burkhead sits.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 2: @Was.): Marlon Mack has been getting in limited practices this week. If he plays, downgrade Wilkins to a bench player, but Hines should still have a role. The diminutive speedster was targeted 9 times last week in the opener, and figures to have a prominent role in the passing game regardless of Mack’s health. Wilkins remains a fairly inexpensive starting back for DFS purposes if Mack sits again, and he faces a team that was among the worst in the league in Football Outsiders’ defense DVOA stat a season ago (29th). Hines should be rostered in just about all PPR leagues with 12 or more teams.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): I’m not telling you to start Miller this week, but if you’re in a deeper league and someone dropped him, or he’s sitting out there on the waiver wire, he’s worth a pickup. Miller did a lot of things right last Sunday in Green Bay that don’t show up on the stat sheet, but coaches love. If he continues to do those things, the targets will come. You might be able to find him at the right price in dynasty leagues if he has a couple more stat lines like he posted in week 1.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): This is contingent on Marquise Goodwin being sidelined for week 2. Goodwin needs his blazing speed to be effective, so I doubt the 49ers will let him play through his thigh bruise if they think it hampers him at all. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday. Pettis made a spectacular TD catch filling in for Goodwin in week 1, and if he fills in again this week he likely avoids Darius Slay’s coverage. He should be an excellent cheap DFS play for week 2 if Goodwin is sidelined.
TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 2: @Chi.): Dissly had himself a game last week and is undoubtedly a hot name on the waiver wire this week. While I do believe that game will prove to be more of a fluke than a trend, I do think that Dissly has established himself as the top fantasy TE in Seattle. His main competition, Nick Vannett, has just 167 yards and 1 TD in 25 career games. Dissly had 103 and a score in just one game. He’s worth a pickup in deeper leagues, especially with so many question marks at the position this early in the season.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Thomas was targeted just twice in the opener, but he should step in as the starter with Greg Olsen sidelined by a broken foot. That should make him worth a pickup in deeper leagues even though Christian McCaffrey and Devin Funchess will demand the majority of the targets in this run-heavy offense. The matchup this week is a good one for the tight end with both of Atlanta’s starting safeties injured (Keanu Neal & Keion Jones). He’s worth a DFS dart throw in tournaments.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Andrews announced himself as a name to know for deeper dynasty leagues last week. He was quiet throughout the preseason, but he found his way to a 3-31 line in a game where the Ravens didn’t have to throw in the second half. While it’s true that Hayden Hurst has been out, and Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams were just as involved last week as Andrews, the Oklahoma product has more upside as a receiver than any of them. He’s worth keeping an eye on in dynasty formats, especially those with TE premium scoring.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. There are a lot of players who have questionable tags at this point in the week, and the last thing you want is to start an inactive player. Feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you want to yell at me or have any specific questions. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by David Biggs
It's Week 2 and there have been some surprises already this season, not the least of which is James Conner (RB) of the Steelers who started 2018 off with a bang after Le'Veon Bell's holdout kept him from starting the season on the stat sheet. Other breakout performances from week 1 will require a little more consistency to climb up in the rankings, but it's generally worth a roster spot or two to hold on to a guy who may be the next Alvin Kamara or Victor Cruz (Phillip Lindsay is a good example early this season). Some players that I have ranked above other experts this week include Alex Smith, Jalen Richard, and Chris Godwin. Good luck and feel free to reach out on Twitter at @drinkfive with your lineup questions. Cheers!