Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by David Biggs
So here we are, week 13. For a lot of us, this week will determine our place in the fantasy playoffs - will you get a bye? Could you sneak in under the wire and get that 6th seed? All-important starts and sits this week and I'm here to help out. With a #11 overall ranking on FantasyPros last week, put some trust in the rankings and add a little bit of your own ingenuity to make everything count this week! Guys that I like this week include: Tyrod Taylor, Kenyan Drake, Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins, Paul Richardson, and Jason Witten. Pay attention, use the experts but trust your gut, and win some fantasy matchups!
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
It's the end of another exciting week of football which means it's time to put your claims in for available free agents in your fantasy league to strengthen your team. I'll be going over who I think are the top five picks for you to target this week so don't miss out on them. Good luck!
Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.
5) Los Angeles Chargers (LAC) - 35% owned - The Chargers have been the top fantasy defense over the past 5 weeks and they have a great matchup against the Browns this week. Looks for them to continue to roll.
4) Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) - 8% owned - Doug Martin is in the concussion protocol and could miss week 13. If he does sit out then Rodgers should get a heavier workload against the Packers.
3) Mike Davis (SEA) - 2% owned - Davis looked better than all the other Seahawk running backs before getting injured during his surprise start in week 11. Look for Davis to get the start again this week with an opportunity to take over going forward.
2) Marquise Goodwin (SF) - 15% owned - Goodwin continues to be an upside WR3 and may be getting a boost at quarterback as Jimmy Garropolo could start week 13 for an injured C.J. Beathard.
1) Zay Jones (BUF) - 14% owned - Jones finally seems to be getting some traction in the Buffalo offense as his last three games he has caught 13 of 24 for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns. He should continue to see targets since Kelvin Benjamin is out with a torn meniscus.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
8 Turnovers in 3 Games
Since Ezekiel Elliott took some mid-season R&R about 3 weeks ago, the Cowboys have struggled mightily. Dak Prescott, hailed last year for his ball security, has turned the ball over 8 times in the last 3 games, all of them without Zeke. He has 5 INT and 3 fumbles lost in those games and has thrown zero touchdowns. In fact, the Cowboys have only scored 2 TDs in those three games. With Zeke in, Dak threw 16 TDs with only 4 INTs over 8 games. The rest of Zeke's suspension will see the Cowboys taking on the Redskins, Giants and Raiders. I'm not sure that the Cowboys are going to win any of them. This strangely begs the argument - Is Zeke the most valuable player to his team? It sure would be a hilarious thing for Goodell to have to see the Zeke be given such a big award that was highlighted by the suspension that ruled (and ruined) the news cycle for the first half of the season.
-0.6 Yards per Carry for Bears RBs
Several bad rushing days have found their way into my column this season, but oh boy, the Bears took it to another level yesterday. The three Bears running backs, Jordan Howard, Benny Cunningham and Tarik Cohen combined for 10 carries and -6 yards. It took QB Mitchell Trubisky's monumental 4 carries for 12 yards to make sure that they didn't finish in the negative as a team. But yes, of course, the Bears are bad. I'd rather talk about the team that beat them, the best team in the league right now, the Philadelphia Eagles. Carson Wentz threw another 3 touchdowns, making it his 5th game where he threw 3 or more TDs. He's also got the league lead with 28 for the season. The Eagles have won 9 in a row, and now have two huge tests over the next two weeks, both on the west coast. First to Seattle next Sunday night, and a visit to the Rams the following week.
1.24 Points Per Touch
Step aside Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara just took your spot for the favorite to win rookie of the year. He's now third in STANDARD fantasy scoring and he only has 77 carries on the season. His production is off the charts, fantasy wise. At 1.24 points per touch(ppt), he's even crushing Chris Thompson (ended the year at 1.09 ppt), whom we gushed about earlier this season. The next closest player still going is Duke Johnson at 0.94 ppt, but seeing as Duke has only the 17th most fantasy points, there's really no comparison. Look instead to how much he's dominating the guys above him. Todd Gurley is averaging about 0.80 ppt, and high volume guy Le'Veon Bell is getting just 0.52 ppt. This means that somehow, Alvin Kamara is more than twice as efficient with the ball than the guy commonly accepted as the best back of the last couple years. All this talk about Mark Ingram being a first team all-pro might be a bit premature. He's got a teammate doing at least as well as he is!
46:21 TD:INT Ratio
This week, quarterback play was a lot cleaner than last week. With a ratio of 46 touchdowns to only 21 interceptions, this week's games felt a lot less sloppy than last week's 39:31 ratio. An obvious side effect of this better play is improved numbers for wide receivers. This week, 6 guys found themselves north of 20 points, with Julio Jones leading the way with an absurd 38.8 in standard leagues. His 253 receiving yards was the highest total for a player in one game since his 300 yard game last season. Meanwhile, Antonio Brown is the major beneficiary of an improved Ben Roethlisberger and has put up an absurd line of 20 receptions for 313 yards and 5 touchdowns in the last two games. Not to be outdone, the surging Chargers have scored 82 points in the last two games, behind Philip Rivers awesome Thanksgiving performance and Keenan Allen's 331 receiving yards over that same stretch. All of this means that the end of the fantasy football season is sure to be freaking amazing.
7-0 Since Week 5
Congrats to Case Keenum, easily the best performing player in the league whose job is constantly in jeopardy. Since taking over for good in Week 5 - remember Sam Bradford? - Keenum has won 7 straight games and the team has averaged 27.4 points per game. This has the Vikings sitting pretty at 9-2, while every week, Coach Zimmer has to announce Keenum as his starter, and not Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater may be the future of the team, but he has almost nothing to do with their success this season. I think that changing the signal caller at this point in the season would be disastrous, but hey, with Zeke finally suspended, what else do talking heads have to discuss?
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report and Happy Turkey Day! Things get a little wild this week with 3 Thursday games, so make sure to get your lineups set ahead of time. The Thanksgiving holiday also brings us the end of the bye weeks. It’ll be full 16 game slates from here on out, so some of those fringe guys you have been willing to try in recent weeks should be shelved for safer options. Oddly enough, in a lot of cases the safer options right now are rookies, especially at the running back position. 4 of the top-12 running backs and 6 of the top-25 in PPR scoring are rookies. Compare that with 2016: only 2 of the top-25 backs were rookies (Zeke and Jordan Howard) and you had to go all the way to RB43 to find the 6th-best rookie contributor. Just imagine how good this rookie crop would be if Dalvin Cook had stayed healthy. There hasn’t been as much success at the other positions, but that may change with Corey Davis’s schedule opening up, a possible TE changing of the guard in Tampa, and a certain turnover-prone QB getting some of his weapons back in Cleveland. Let’s jump in and see what to expect for week 12…
Rookies to Start:
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 12: vs. Buf.): With each passing week, it’s getting harder and harder to rely on Hunt as an RB1. He has zero TDs since week 3, and 3 straight games with fewer than 100 scrimmage yards after hitting that mark in each of his first 7 games. The Bills are an ideal get-right spot for him. Buffalo has coughed up 212.7 rushing yards per game and 11 rushing TDs in the 3 games since they dealt Marcell Dareus, and Hunt has accounted for nearly three-quarters of the Chiefs rushing yards on the year (73.7%). This is a chance for Hunt to find his ceiling again. A 20-point PPR day could be in the offing.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 12: @LAR): You already know that Kamara is pretty much an auto-start at this point. The Rams are improving against opposing running backs and have held 3 of their last 4 opponents below 17 PPR points (the best RB defense in the league, Houston, allows 17.2 points per game), but the Rams played from ahead in most of those games and still have allowed the 4th-most running back points on the year. You can’t bet against Kamara’s hot streak here. He’s been an RB1 for 5 straight weeks, and THE RB1 in 2 of the past 3. He’s well worth the cost in DFS formats and a locked in RB1 again.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ari.): Fournette got back on track with 111 rushing yards last Sunday against the Browns. He’s still battling an ankle injury, but he played 67% of the offensive snaps and produced a solid fantasy day. The Cardinals have been decent at stopping the ground game, ranking 9th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but Fournette’s volume has kept him pretty much matchup-proof, and Arizona is coming off their worst game against RBs all year. I’d prefer Kamara or Hunt as a top flight option in DFS, but LF should be locked in to season-long lineups as usual.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 12: @NYJ): The Jets defense has been pretty formidable against running backs this year, holding opposing backs to the 10th-fewest PPR points per game and ranking 13th in run defense DVOA, but I’m not betting against McCaffrey. He’s posted back-to-back top-6 weeks since the Kelvin Benjamin trade. He’s more of an RB2 this week than RB1 given the matchup, but with KB gone he’s finally finding his ceiling, and it isn’t something you want to leave on the bench.
RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): I’d be a little nervous if I’m relying on Perine as an RB1 this week but Chris Thompson suffered a season-ending injury, Perine is coming off a breakout game, and the Giants have allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards in the league. Washington also enters the game as a touchdown favorite, so game script should work in Perine’s favor as well. I don’t know if he’ll repeat the performance he had last week, but Samaje should be a solid RB2 based on volume and matchup. He’s a better option in non-PPR formats since he provides almost no receiving production.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 12: vs. GB): Make sure the hamstring isn’t a problem before pulling the trigger here. JuJu has averaged 8.3 targets per game in the past 3 contests, and Green Bay has allowed the 7th-most WR points per game. There is probably some worry after Antonio Brown exploded Thursday night and JJSS scored in single-digits, but the Packers have let 2 WRs finish in the top-24 in the same game 4 times (nearly 5, but Josh Bellamy of the Bears was the WR26 against them). Make sure to keep an eye on the hamstring updates. JuJu isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, and the Steelers play Sunday night. Make sure you have a fallback option if he can’t play (Martavis, Bruce Ellington and Mike Wallace are all options that may be available on your waiver wire), but if he’s able to go he should be a borderline WR2.
WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 12: @Ind.): I am here for the Corey Davis breakout game this week. The snaps and targets have been there for Davis since he returned from his hamstring injury, and now he gets a matchup that will allow him to really get going. The Colts rank 27th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th-most WR points per game. It would be a ballsy move to thrust Davis into lineups this week given how he’s produced so far, but I love Davis as a WR3 this week. He could drastically outplay his $4,900 price tag in DraftKings this week.
TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 12: @Was.): Don’t be scared off by his clunker last week. The wind was howling, and he was facing a tough matchup. Remember that Engram put up a goose egg in week 5 and then followed it with 4 straight top-5 performances before last Sunday’s dud. EE draws Washington this week, a defense much more giving to opposing TEs than the Chiefs. Washington has allowed the most yards per game to opposing TEs and the 4th-most fantasy points per game to them. The Chiefs have allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points. Engram is a strong bet to get back on track on Thursday night.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Mixon has continued to show a lack of a ceiling all year in this Bengals’ offense. He hasn’t reached 14 PPR points in any game this year, and he has the fewest yards per carry of any back with at least 55 carries on the year (2.9). He’ll need receiving usage to find his floor this week, as the Browns actually rank 1st in run defense DVOA. Gio Bernard is still stealing some of the passing down work. The Bengals are a heavy favorite, so game script could boost his volume, but he’s looking like no more than a flex play in this one.
RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 12: @Pit.): Williams had a usable day in his first start, finishing as the RB20 in a blowout loss to Baltimore on Sunday. He should see enough volume to push for fantasy viability again this week since the biggest threat to his carries, Devante Mays, fumbled twice in two attempts Sunday. If Ty Montgomery manages to return this week, Williams is off the table, but TyMo isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. The Steelers’ run defense has been stingy and ranks 4th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game so far. Game script should also work against Williams with the Steelers a 14-point favorite. If he continues to see some receiving work, there should still be enough volume for Jamaal to be in play as a flex option in deeper leagues, but there isn’t a ton of upside.
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): If Forte is out again, and it appears he will be, Elijah is worth some consideration as a flex option. Carolina is a tough matchup, allowing the 3rd fewest rushing yards and 2nd-fewest rushing TDs in the league, so McGuire will need some receiving usage to show his value. The Jets will likely be playing from behind and McGuire saw 7 targets last week to Bilal Powell’s 2 with the Jets in comeback mode against Tampa. Elijah also played more snaps than Powell in that game. If that usage continues, McGuire could surprise this week in deeper PPR leagues.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 12: vs. NO): At this point you pretty much know what you’re getting with Kupp. He’s probably overdue for a TD but his volume has been steady with 7+ targets in 3 of the last 4 games. Robert Woods’s absence should also give his target number a boost. The Saints have been decent defensively, but Kupp’s volume makes him a safe floor WR3… I mean, what are they going to do, start featuring Sammy Watkins? Sammy Watkins owners know the answer to that question.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 12: @KC): This is a good spot for Zay this week with Tyrod re-inserted at QB. Jones has finally started to play at a solid level in the past few weeks, and with KB expected out in this one Tyrod should lean on Zay in the passing game. Charles Clay hasn’t looked right since returning from injury a couple weeks ago and Jordan Matthews will likely play limited snaps in his first game back. The Chiefs allow the 2nd-most points per game to opposing WRs, and Zay has been averaging 7 targets a game in his last 4 played. He should be a PPR WR4 this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 12: @Phi.): The Eagles’ defense has been playing inspired football of late. They haven’t exactly been facing elite offenses (49ers, Broncos, Cowboys without Tyron Smith & Zeke), but the Bears and Mitch Trubisky don’t qualify as one either. Chicago ranks 26th in offensive yards per game and 27th in points per game. The Eagles have allowed 17.8 fantasy points to the opposing QBs in total in their past 3 contests. Mitch will be hard pressed to be a QB2 this week.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Cohen’s usage bounced back in a big way against Detroit on Sunday, but Philly allows the 3rd-fewest RB points per game and Benny Cunningham is still mixing in during the 2-minute drill . You could try and plug Cohen in as your flex if you’re feeling lucky, but I’d like to see his usage repeat before I start considering him for the lineup again.
RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): You could throw CC in as a DFS tournament dart throw if you want to, but at some point the garbage time bonanza is going to dry up. Clement’s usage hasn’t been reliable enough to put him in season-long lineups with fantasy playoff spots at stake. He’s topped 50 rushing yards in 3 straight games and scored 4 TDs in the past 2, but he’s done so on just 28 carries and 1 reception in those 3 games, most with the games long decided. There is a legitimate chance that the script repeats itself for Clement with Philly a 2-touchdown favorite, but at some point the Eagles are going to have a letdown game. It’s hard to bank on a 4th consecutive blowout. Even if it is a blowout, you’d still need a TD from Clement for him to return real value.
RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Breida posted a productive game against the Giants heading into the bye, but that was with the 49ers playing from out in front all day. I’d expect mostly Hyde this week with the Seahawks being a much tougher opponent. Seattle ranks 11th in run defense DVOA and allows the 4th-fewest RB points per game. This isn’t a matchup to target with a rotational back like Breida.
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 12: @Was.): Gallman has just 10 touches in the last 2 games, and with Darkwa playing well there’s no reason to expect that number to go up on Thanksgiving.
WR Keelan Cole, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ari.): With the return of Dede Westbrook, Cole’s role will diminish quite a bit over the next couple weeks. I’d expect Westbrook and Marqise Lee to be on the field in most 2-wide sets, and Cole in the slot when they go to 3 WRs. Few teams employ fewer 3-WR formations than Jacksonville. The matchup isn’t terrible with the Cardinals allowing the 9th-most WR points per game, but I don’t expect Cole to find enough volume for a useful day.
WR Alex Erickson, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Don’t take his TD in week 11 to mean anything, and don’t read into the matchup this week with the lowly Browns. Erickson isn’t usable in fantasy at the moment, nor are his rookie teammates John Ross and Josh Malone.
WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): This matchup looks a lot better than it did a couple weeks ago, but even if Taylor is able to play he managed to post just 2 catches for 6 yards in the first meeting with Seattle, and his role in the offense already kept him away from Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman’s coverage. He’s scored 10+ PPR points just once on the year. If Taylor is out again, fellow rookie Kendrick Bourne will continue to see increased playing time, but he’s also not worth consideration as he battles Louis Murphy for WR3 snaps.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 12: @Atl.): OJ made good on my ‘sleeper’ call last week with a 3-52-1 line while playing 70% of the snaps, but I’m not ready to double-down on him this week. It does appear that he’s slightly edged out Cam Brate for the lead TE spot, but they still share enough work that it hurts the fantasy upside for both guys. Howard out-targeted Brate 4-3 in week 11. While those few targets are enough to be productive in a great matchup like the one they faced last week, Atlanta isn’t a great matchup. The Falcons are right in the middle of the pack vs. TEs, allowing the 16th-most TE points per game.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): I’d like Kittle as a sleeper if I were sure he’s healthy, but I’m not. TE gets pretty ugly after the top handful of options and the Seahawks have given up 11.9 or more PPR points to the position in 7 of their past 8 games. 10 PPR points is basically a borderline TE1 this year. With Kittle banged up though, I’d look elsewhere for TE streamers.
TE Adam Shaheen, CHI (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Shaheen has finally become part of the Bears’ game plan with injuries to Zach Miller and Dion Sims, but the Eagles have allowed 10+ points to the opposing TEs just 3 times all year, and only once in the last 6 games. This isn’t a good spot for Shaheen.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): With Corey Coleman back, Njoku was limited to just one target last weekend. It’s now been 5 games since Njoku’s last TD and 3 games since he reached 20 receiving yards. ‘Because he’s due’ isn’t a good reason to use him in lineups.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB CJ Beathard, SF (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): The 49ers have announced that Beathard will get another start this week, and there actually is some upside in what is typically a demoralizing matchup. Seattle still has some defensive firepower to be reckoned with, but losing Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor is a huge blow to their secondary. Seattle is a 7-point favorite this week, so the 49ers should have to throw plenty, and CJ’s found some success of late with 17.4 and 25 fantasy points in his last 2 starts respectively. If you are playing a streamer in a 2-QB league, I like Beathard better than a lot of the other options at the bottom of the QB barrel.
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Cincinnati has been one of the better QB defenses in the league this year, allowing the 11th fewest QB points per game, but they have shown some cracks of late. They’ve allowed at least 14.6 points to the opposing QB in each of the 5 games since their bye week, and all 5 QBs faced finished between the QB10 and QB17 for the week. That range might not be exciting, but it’s usable in 2-QB formats. It’ll be easy to point to Kizer’s 4 turnovers and 5.4 fantasy points last week, and his poor performance in the first meeting with Cincy and write him off as an option, but he actually posted the 5th-highest point total any QB has against Jacksonville. He also scored 38 points combined in the two games before that against pretty formidable QB defenses (DET & MIN). The Bengals are one of 5 teams that have allowed 200 QB rushing yards on the year, so Kizer should create some extra points with his legs. He showed an immediate connection with Corey Coleman last week, and gets Josh Gordon back in week 13. I think DeShone will surprise some people down the stretch. We’ve seen flashes of his skills at times, and he’s getting weapons to work with. Now he just has to cut down on the turnovers and play more consistent football. He’s a high-risk, high-reward streamer for 2-QB leagues this week.
RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 12: @Dal.): The Cowboys’ run defense has suffered whenever Sean Lee is out, and he will miss this game. Dallas has allowed 120+ rushing yards in all 3 games that Lee has missed, and another 120 in the final 3 quarters against Atlanta after Lee left with injury. They’ve given up 64 rushing yards per game with him in the lineup (not including that Atlanta game). The question with Ekeler will be his volume. He was effective on limited touches last week, but he didn’t play at all until the game was well in hand. Melvin Gordon should have a great game this week, but if Ekeler sees another 8-10 touches spelling him, he could post another flex-worthy game as well.
RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Mack is likely becoming a forgotten man amongst the crowded rookie RB crop. He failed to score even 5 PPR points in week 9 or 10, and then was on bye in week 11. People likely are forgetting that the Colts played mostly from ahead in those two games. In positive game scripts, they are going to rely more heavily on Frank Gore. Despite playing with leads in those games, Mack still played over 40% of the snaps in each and handled 8.5 touches per game. I expect his usage to go up if Indy plays from behind, and the Titans allow the 5th-most RB catches and 4th-most RB receiving yards in the league. Mack is an upside play for DFS tournaments and the deepest of PPR leagues.
WR Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 12: @Ari.): As I mentioned above with Keelan Cole, the Cardinals allow the 9th-most WR points per game and I expect Westbrook’s playing time to increase a bit this week. With Keelan Cole playing as the slot WR, that keeps Marqise Lee on the outside and will allow Patrick Peterson to cover him. That could open things up for Westbrook, who put up 3-35 on 6 targets last week. There’s upside for Westbrook to have a breakout game, and might reward you as a DFS punt option.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 12: vs. Min.): Minnesota’s top corner Xavier Rhodes is likely to spend most of the day covering Marvin Jones, and while Trae Waynes has improved of late, he’s still the guy to go after if you’re going to attack the Vikings on the outside. Golden Tate will be the Lions’ best WR play this week, but there’s room for Golladay to have a game as well. Kenny’s snap count tripled from 11 to 33 in his second game back, and there’s something about Lions’ Thanksgiving games that brings out the best in their QB. Matt Stafford has thrown for 330+ yards in 4 of the last five Turkey Day tilts he’s played in. While the one game he didn’t hit that mark was last year against these Vikings, I still like his chances at a better than expected day. If Golladay’s targets climb from the three he saw last week, he’s got some real upside as a boom-or-bust WR4.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 12: @Dal.): It’s likely that Williams’ 8 targets last week were more a result of the game being out of hand than part of the original plan, but it’s still an encouraging sign. His usage has been too inconsistent to use him in season-long leagues this week, but he could be a tournament winner for the Thanksgiving DFS slate. He costs just $100 more than the minimum in DraftKings, and faces a Cowboys’ defense that allows the 6th-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs.
WR Chad Williams, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Don’t play Williams this week against the ferocious Jaguars’ defense, but keep an eye on his usage and production. John Brown is likely to miss this game with a toe injury, and head coach Bruce Arians said Williams has impressed in practice and “is going to get his shot.” The Jaguars allow the fewest WR points per game by a wide margin, so if Williams has an even remotely productive game he’s likely worth a flier in deep leagues and dynasty formats.
TE Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Like his teammate Chad Williams, Seals-Jones is just a stash at this point, and for Ricky it’s specifically for dynasty leagues. He’s played just 9 offensive snaps all year (only one before week 11), and managed to see 6 targets and put up 3-54-2 with them. He finished as the TE2 in week 11. That kind of production isn’t sustainable on that snap count…still, starting TE Jermaine Gresham has just 2 TDs all year. Ricky is a converted WR who can be a matchup nightmare at 6’5”, 243, but I’d need to see his playing time increase to consider rostering him in season-long leagues. At the very least, his performance last weekend has made him a rookie to keep an eye on.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of the critical lineup decisions you have to make this week. If you see two players listed at the same position under the same header above, they are listed in the order that I like them for this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week, and make sure you don’t miss any players playing on Thanksgiving. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and the under/ over in the NFL? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your precarious souls at ease. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 21st season of fantasy football(definitely a self-proclaimed pioneer). But enough about this guy. In this weekly column, I'll offer up anything from sportsbook's outcomes, moods and reflections, as well as offer words of advice and knowledge on betting strategies. Additionally, for every game, I'll have my picks for the spread, moneyline and under/ over ready to go. And if you're good(or I just happen to be feeling generous), I'll offer up one of my tantalizing, high-odds 'Nicks Picks', a ticket too good to be true. Anyway, if for some reason any of Nick's Picks let you down, I'm cool with you telling your bookie it was all my fault. Yeah... right.
'EASY ON THE TURKEY' - Remember, you want to enjoy the holiday... not flip your dinner plate over in a sodium induced 'gravy-rage', because Detroit failed to cover the spread and land you that Black Friday, door-buster cash. Sure, take some action, especially if some lines are appealing. But keep in mind, they're still Thursday games and we all know how unpredictable teams like to perform on that special day. Just play it safe. Happy Thanksgiving and good luck!
NOTE: I HAVE ALTERED THE POINT VALUES ON VARIOUS SPREADS TO INCREASE ODDS OF WINNING CERTAIN GAMES. OBVIOUSLY, THE PAYOUT WILL BE LESS THAN CHOOSING THE POINTS A SPORTSBOOK PROVIDES. THOSE CHANGED BY ME WILL BE LISTED IN BRACKETS.
NICK'S PICK OF THE WEEK: 2 GAME PARLAY | MIN -2.5 | CAR -4.5
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS - MIN (-2.5) | MIN -141 | OVER 44
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS - LAC -2 | LAC -124 | OVER 47
NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS - WAS (-6.5) | WAS -333 | OVER 45
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW YORK JETS - CAR -4.5 | CAR -216 | OVER 40
TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - TEN (-2.5) | TEN -163 | UNDER 45.5
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS - CIN (-6.5) | CIN -375 | UNDER 38
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS - TBB (+10.5) | ATL -402 | UNDER 49
BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - KCC (-9.5) | KCC -442 | UNDER 46.5
CHICAGO BEARS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - PHI -13.5 | PHI -855 | OVER 44
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - NEP -16.5 | NEP -1351 | OVER 48
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - SEA -6.5 | SEA -272 | OVER 45
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS - JAX -5.5 | JAX -232 | OVER 38
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS - NOS (+3.5) | NOS +129 | OVER 53
DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS - OAK -5 | OAK -227 | OVER 43.5
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS - PIT (-13.5) | PIT -917 | UNDER 43
HOUSTON TEXANS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS - HOU +7.5 | BAL -303 | OVER 38
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS:
SPREAD 8-5
MONEYLINE 9-4
TOTAL O/U 8-5
YTD RESULTS:
SPREAD 82-69
MONEYLINE 95-56
TOTAL O/U 76-75
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
It’s Thanksgiving Week!
What that means is that there are NO more bye weeks and we get extra football earlier in the week. You know, just as players are really starting to hit home on their protest against Thursday Football. Ah well, sooner football - YAY!
Week 12 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – PHILADELPHIA over Chicago – The Bears have been able to hold their own the last few weeks. Hard to see that happening this week though.
15 – NEW ENGLAND over Miami – The fact that the Patriots’ defense is really starting to come around is just a scary thought for the rest of the league.
14 – PITTSBURGH over Green Bay – I’m pretty sure that NBC thought they would be getting a better matchup when they scheduled this in the off-season.
13 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – Congrats, state of Ohio…these are your football teams.
12 – WASHINGTON over New York Giants – On Thursday, we’ll all have our big turkey dinner which will make us pretty sleepy – we should get a great night’s rest! If that isn’t enough, don’t worry, the Giants will be on in primetime.
11 – KANSAS CITY over Buffalo – A month ago people were calling Alex Smith the MVP – now they’re calling for Patrick Mahomes to take the helm in KC? I’m not buying it.
10 – Seattle over SAN FRANCISCO – Remember when this was the hottest rivalry in the league?
9 – BALTIMORE over Houston – After a shutout win in Green Bay, the Ravens continue their “lucky to be playing teams who have lost their quarterback” stretch of the schedule.
8 – Tennessee over INDIANAPOLIS – Until Andrew Luck gets back, its hard to see the Colts winning many games.
7 – ATLANTA over Tampa Bay – Ryan Fitzpatrick has been more than serviceable since replacing Jameis Winston – but the Falcons are starting to look like last year’s team…blowing leads and everything.
6 – Minnesota over DETROIT – Thanksgiving kicks off with a matchup that could go a long way in determining the NFC North – especially when the Vikings pick up the huge road win.
5 – OAKLAND over Denver – It seems like Denver hasn’t won a game since Elway was under center and they will be starting a new quarterback…again. It’s still not naïve of me to pick the Raiders, right?
4 – DALLAS over Los Angeles Chargers – Unfortunately for the Chargers, you can’t play a team that makes horrible quarterback decisions every week.
3 – New Orleans over LOS ANGELES RAMS – This could be an NFC Championship Game preview … … … I really don’t know how to follow that up.
2 – Jacksonville over ARIZONA – The Jags are clearly the better team, but playing in Arizona has me a little skeptical.
1 – NEW YORK JETS over Carolina – My gut says the Panthers will win this one, but both Carolina and the Jets have done a great job of doing what I thought they wouldn’t this season.
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- Written by David Biggs
It was definitely one of the most entertaining Monday Night Football games that I've seen in a while, with the Russell Wilson and the Seahawks struggling to keep up offensively with the Falcons throughout the game, and almost coming through at the very end with a Blair Walsh field goal to send it to overtime. Looks like Seattle's defensive woes are not going to bode well going into the rest of the season's match-ups - after what should not be a difficult win against the 49ers this week they have some tough games ahead against the Eagles, Jaguars, Rams, and Cowboys (with Zeke returning). Anyway, onto the rankings for Week 12 and to pick a few players out of the bunch that I think will outperform expectations: Alex Smith, Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon, Devin Funchess, Sammy Watkins, Corey Davis, and C.J. Fiedorowicz. Good luck!
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
It's the end of another exciting week of football which means it's time to put your claims in for available free agents in your fantasy league to strengthen your team. I'll be going over who I think are the top five picks for you to target this week so don't miss out on them. Good luck!
Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.
5) Cincinnati Bengals (CIN) - 41% owned - A great streaming option for week 12 as the Bengals play against the Browns who give up the second most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
4) Charles Clay (BUF) - 33% owned - Clay is fully healthy in an offense starving for pass catchers. He should squeeze into the TE1 conversation each week so he is a great grab if you are desperate at the position; unless Buffalo decides to bench Tyrod Taylor again...
3) Kenny Stills (MIA) - 38% owned - Stills has been putting up huge points in recent weeks and should be owned more than he is. The past 6 weeks he has caught 30 of 43 targets for 474 yards and 4 TDs. He draws a great matchup against New England this week as they will most likely be scheming against Landry.
2) Devontae Booker (DEN) - 8% owned - Denver looks to be shaking things up on offense to find a spark. Booker looked to be in an almost even timeshare with C.J. Anderson last week while outperforming him. Look for this timeshare to continue in the short term with a chance of Booker taking over if he plays well.
1) Samaje Perine (WAS) - 35% owned - Washington has now lost both Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson for the year which means Perine should be a volume RB2 the rest of the season. Look for him to build upon his week 11 performance where he rushed 23 times for 117 yards and a score.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
39:31 TD to INT Ratio
So far this week, QB play has really been sloppy compared to the sharper, more efficient play that we saw the last few weeks. Of course, you can't blame all of these interceptions on QBs, some of this is the fault of awful play calling in the KC-NYG game. In that game, both Shane Vereen and Travis Kelce threw interceptions on plays that can only leave you scratching your head. Elsewhere in the league, there were 5 QBs that were responsible for at least 4 turnovers each. Among them, the Bills starter Nathan Peterman stands out, having thrown 5 interceptions in the first half, resulting in his benching and the second QB switch in as many weeks for Buffalo. By contrast, Tyrod Taylor has 3 picks all season. How is there even a QB controversy in Buffalo?
32.40 Fantasy Points
Many of us were staring at a huge number all weekend after Antonio Brown had 10 receptions for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns. Hopefully, you were on the good end of this performance, which was the second highest total for a WR all season, just behind Amari Cooper's 33 points in Week 7, also on a Thursday night. The Steelers put up 40 points against the Titans and it's finally looking like their offense may be starting to roll in the ways that were predicted early in the season. With 3 of their next 4 games at home, the Steelers can get their offense back on track, as they are clearly better at home than on the road. They will also have a chance to really secure home field advantage in the playoffs since the Patriots visit Heinz field in Week 15.
54-34 Chargers vs AFC West
Going in to Sunday, the tied-for-last-place Chargers were the victims of many close losses early in the season, so being able to pull Philip Rivers in the 4th quarter must have been a great relief. They also outscored their entire division by 20 points, springing them into second place in a now very winnable AFC West. The Chiefs haven't been able to do much winning lately, and the Broncos and Raiders both seem very lost at this point in the season. The Chargers are one of only two teams in the league that are under .500, yet have more points scored for them than against. A wildcard spot may be tough to reach, but if the Chiefs keep losing (even Andy Reid's awesome record after a bye couldn't save them yesterday), the Chargers just might wind up taking this division. Pretty good for a team that almost nobody cares about anymore.
0% Owned in Yahoo Leagues
Two of the top three TEs in Week 11 are owned in 0% of yahoo leagues. Allow me to introduce you to Ricky Seals-Jones of Arizona and Adam Shaheen of Chicago. Seals-Jones had zero points going into this game with only 1 target on the year. With Blaine Gabbert starting, he caught two touchdowns, which HELPS NO ONE! At least Gabbert got one to Larry Fitzgerald as well - side note: congrats to Larry on his contract extension, I hope we get to see him play for many years to come. Anyways, back to the ridiculous situation that TEs are in this season. Who is the other guy in the top 3, you may ask? Well that's O.J. Howard, who is owned in a whopping 22% of Yahoo leagues. Of the top 10 tight ends this week, only 2 of them are owned in over 45% of leagues. This will make for some waiver wire fun towards the end of the fantasy regular season.
4 D/STs Over 20 Points
With such a sloppy week on offense, it's only logical that the defenses should clean up, and some of the bigger names this season did just that. It's the first time since week 6 that we had that many teams break the 20 point mark. Three of the four teams that hit that total this week, The Ravens, Jaguars and Eagles, all hit that back in Week One as well. All three teams also have at least 3-20 point games (the Ravens have 4 of them). The Ravens have really needed their defense, too. They have three shutouts on the season, but just 5 victories. Even with a feast-or-famine defense, I think it's worth keeping them around for the next couple of weeks. When your defense can put up 20 points for you, good things are going to happen to your fantasy team.
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and the under/ over in the NFL? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your precarious souls at ease. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 21st season of fantasy football(definitely a self-proclaimed pioneer). But enough about this guy. In this weekly column, I'll offer up anything from sportsbook's outcomes, moods and reflections, as well as offer words of advice and knowledge on betting strategies. Additionally, for every game, I'll have my picks for the spread, moneyline and under/ over ready to go. And if you're good(or I just happen to be feeling generous), I'll offer up one of my tantalizing, high-odds 'Nicks Picks', a ticket too good to be true. Anyway, if for some reason any of Nick's Picks let you down, I'm cool with you telling your bookie it was all my fault. Yeah... right.
'STEEL AWAY' - Most of you probably don't remember the classic Robbie Dupree song, 'Steal Away' from 1980, with it's tight, silky bass lines and ultra-moody atmosphere. However, there is a great chance we'll all be remembering tonight's Titans/ Steelers match-up, with Pittsburgh showing the NFL world that they belong in the AFC title game for a second consecutive year. I'm a fan of the Black and Gold obviously, but I still rarely bet on them. A small lesson this week but a huge one nonetheless; NEVER wager with your heart. Unless the spread is too good to be true or you're just picking your team to win when playing a competitor not worthy to be on the same field, I would put together tickets that DON'T include organizations close to your heart. But hey, if you have a hatred for the Steelers and those inner feelings 'opposite of love', cloud your best judgement... by all means, bet the house on the Titans. I dare ya
NOTE: I HAVE ALTERED THE POINT VALUES ON VARIOUS SPREADS TO INCREASE ODDS OF WINNING CERTAIN GAMES. OBVIOUSLY, THE PAYOUT WILL BE LESS THAN CHOOSING THE POINTS A SPORTSBOOK PROVIDES. THOSE CHANGED BY ME WILL BE LISTED IN BRACKETS.
NICK'S PICK OF THE WEEK: 3 GAME PARLAY | MIA +0 | NOS -6.5 | CIN +2.5
TENNESSEE TITANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS - PIT (-6.5) | PIT -309 | UNDER 44.5
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS - MIA +0 | MIA -102 | OVER 41.5
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW YORK GIANTS - KC (-9.5) | KC -417 | OVER 46.5
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS - JAX (-6.5) | JAX -333 | UNDER 37
DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS - DET (-2.5) | DET -144 | OVER 41
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS - BAL -2 | BAL -124 | UNDER 38
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ HOUSTON TEXANS - ARI +2.5 | ARI +116 | OVER 38.5
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS - MIN -2.5 | MIN - 138 | UNDER 45.5
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - NOS (-6.5) | NOS -365 | OVER 51
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS - NEP (-6.5) | NEP -288 | OVER 55
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ DENVER BRONCOS - CIN +2.5 | CIN +121 | OVER 38
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS - PHI -4.5 | PHI -215 | OVER 47.5
ATLANTA FALCONS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - SEA (-2.5) | SEA -144 | UNDER 45
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS:
SPREAD 7-7
MONEYLINE 10-4
TOTAL O/U 9-5
YTD RESULTS:
SPREAD 74-64
MONEYLINE 86-52
TOTAL O/U 68-70