Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by David Biggs
Week 5 brings bye weeks for more teams and some trend information to think about. Guys like Kenyan Drake that many of us were high on before the season started have not performed consistently at a high level and those kinds of things are reflected in the rankings as we march onward into Fall. This week I'm wary of T.J. Yeldon, but bullish on Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, and LeSean McCoy compared to other experts. Good luck in Week 5 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
7 QBs over 30 Points
No tricks, no BS – there’s even an 8th guy who may reach this level tonight. So far this week, there are 7 QBs that put up at least 30 points in standard scoring, led by usual suspect Mitchell Trubisky. OK, maybe he’s never even come close to these heights. Heck, his 43.46 points this season is more than he put up in the first three weeks combined. Now, I’m not sure that everyone should rush out to place claims on Trubes, but he did finally show what the Bears offensive ceiling is, and it’s actually impressive. He even broke the modern Bears QB record with 6 TD passes – nobody even had 5 of them since Sid Luckman threw for 7 back in 1943. On the other side of the ball Sunday, we saw the end of the 2018 installment of Fitzmagic – this guy’s fun, but I suspect we might have seen the last Ryan Fitzpatrick playing well as a starting QB (barring injury). Jameis Winston is ready to lick his fingers and eat some W’s (just….gross) when they return to action in Week 6. Farewell, Bucs – we hardly knew ye.
158.3 Passer Rating
Last Thursday, we were treated to real football. Part of that real football game was the most perfect passing performance, statistically speaking, we’ve ever seen. Jared Goff’s performance was the 70th time that a QB posted a perfect passer rating. It was perhaps the best perfect game ever, featuring both the most passing attempts (33) and passing yards (465) of any perfect passer rating game in history. Goff added 5 TDs to finish with a cool 39.3 fantasy points. Goff is definitely trending up and is now a top-4 QB in fantasy through one quarter of the season. The Rams WRs were the big winners here – each of their top 3 guys, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods all put up over 16 points – 100+ yards and 1+ TDs each. The fantasy value on the Rams is overflowing and you should get in on it now before getting priced out of the market for trade value.
567 Made Field Goals
As promised last week, Adam Vinatieri has earned his way back into the discussion with his record breaking performance on Sunday. Vinatieri was 2/2 on FG kicks and has now passed Morten Anderson for sole possession of the all-time record for FGs made. A deeper dive into his stats (a list of all his made FGs is available here) shows that he also has 56 more made FGs in the playoffs, including a whopping 14 in 2006 alone. He’s made 40 FGs of 50+ yards. He’s made 12 FGs in overtime, including his one on Sunday. 160 of those FGs were kicks that gave his team the lead. He even has one passing TD to his name. Vinatieri deserves to be a first ballot hall of famer, and it’s been fun watching his career – heck, him playing even pre-dates my interest in the NFL. In tribute, 13 other kickers also put up 10 or more points in a week filled with offense.
240 Yards from Scrimmage
The anemic Cowboys offense got a shot of 50cc’s of pure Zeke on Sunday against the Lions. Ezekiel Elliot set a career high mark with 240 yards from scrimmage. He added 1 receiving TD, bringing his fantasy total up to an even 30 points. Those 30 are good for only 9th most points this week – offense is increasing everywhere. Sunday, Zeke touched the ball a whopping 29 times, a trend that has to continue if Dallas wishes to win any more games this year. Their offense has looked so bad in the first 3 games of the season, that pushing more than 50% of the offense (Sunday was 29 touches for Zeke, 23 for the rest of the team) is the only path to victory. This is unsustainable over the course of 16 games, but it will result in tons of fantasy production for Zeke. He has 51% of the team’s touches and is the 4th best fantasy RB so far this season. I expect him to continue with his 100 yards and/or 1 TD M.O. most of the season, but he is vulnerable to a dud game because of the team that’s around him.
1st Regular Season Td
Titans WR Corey Davis finally recorded his first regular season touchdown. After finding the end zone twice in the postseason last year, Davis finally got one that counts on the regular stat sheet. Davis had a hell of a game, grabbing 9 receptions on 15 targets for 161 yards and the game winning TD in overtime. Davis had a whopping 15 points on the season going into the week, and put up 22.1. With the sudden departure (not a Leftovers reference) of Rishard Matthews last week, Davis is in line to continue getting a heavy workload. It helps that his QB Marcus Mariota seems healthy, so this connection should continue to grow. Next up is the Bills, so the 3-1 Titans should keep rolling.
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck!
Okay, save the torches and pitchforks for another time. Some of my picks might have been way off for week 3, but come on, these were major UPSETS that most of the wagering world lost their asses on. However, if you would have listened to the rationale segment before the picks, you would of remembered me saying I don’t wager on the first two weeks of the season and ease into week three with the cash flow. So don't worry Johnny, better weeks are ahead!
PHI(-188) -3.5 @ TEN(+167) +3.5 (O/U 41.5) – Take Philly and the moneyline as this could be a field goal game. O/U should be harder than figuring out the new QB protection rule, but if you need to have a piece, get a small slice of the Under.
HOU(+112) +1.5 @ IND(-125) -1.5 (O/U 47) – The Texans are starting to click and they are underdogs in this one. A favorable spread and moneyline, so take Houston all day long. Go with the Under.
DET(+132) +3 @ DAL(-147) -3 (O/U 43.5) – The Lions are another team finding it’s rhythm and should eek out a road win in Dallas as underdogs. I like Detroit all day with both moneyline and spread, but wouldn’t touch the O/U.
TB(+142) +3 @ CHI(-159) -3 (O/U 46.5) – Chicago’s beastly defense will be too much for Tampa Bay. Even if the the Bear’s offense is mediocre at best so far this season, they should put up enough to win. I do think it could be decided by a field goal or less, so go with the moneyline and avoid the spread. I’d hide from the O/U as well.
CIN(+175) +4 @ ATL(-197) -4 (O/U 53) – Another road team, another underdog. Even though Atlanta will be at home, I believe their sham of a defense and lack of a solid running attack, will give the Bengals a legitimate shot… especially on the fast turf with Green and Boyd running routes opposite of each other. Take Cincinnati and the points. I’m being cautious with the moneyline as it could be a field goal or less in favor of the Falcons. Definitely get some action on the Over with the combination of two potent offenses.
MIA(+245) +7 @ NEP(-281) -7 (O/U 48) – The Patriots rarely lose multiple games in a row, especially when about to play at home. They also usually crush the Dolphins in Foxborough. Still, this being a division game, and Miami looking decent, I would avoid the spread and take New England and the moneyline. Stay far away from the O/U.
NYJ(+314) +7.5 @ JAX(-366) -7.5 (O/U 38.5) – I believe the Jaguars will pull out a close win, but too close to put action on any aspect of this contest due to the numbers given. The spread is too high in Jax’s favor and the moneyline is off the charts. The O/U seems about exactly right on, so why bother?
BUF(+325) +9.5 @ GBP(-380) – 9.5 (O/U 45) – After last week’s road win in Minnesota, I will not take the spread in this one until I find out a little more about the Bills. I am confident Green Bay will win at home. However, the moneyline should only be taken if you have the capital… and/ or the cajones.
SEA(-171) -3 @ ARI(+153) +3 (O/U 39) – I’m comfy taking the Seahawks with the line, spread and grabbing the under.
CLE(+133) +3 @ OAK(-148) -3 (O/U 45) – Only take the Browns and the spread if you add at least a half point. Don’t go crazy on a rookie QB’s first start, especially on the road in a notoriously hostile stadium. I’m thinking Cleveland could pull this off, just tread lightly. Anyway, the O/U is ugly, so this game has little, big money appeal.
NOS(-175) -3.5 @ NYG(+157) +3.5 (O/U 50) – Safely take the Saints on both the line and points. Shaky defenses on both ends make this a friendly Over.
SF(+378) +10.5 @ LAC(-450) -10.5 (O/U 46.5) – This is the strongest play of the week. The spread is fair in the Chargers’ favor, especially with the beating they’ll give the Niners. Without Jimmy G, San Fran will be no better than ‘okay’. The spread is reasonable and Los Angeles will probably put up at least forty-five points themselves, so go make yourself some scratch on the Over.
BAL(+142) +3 @ PIT(-158) -3 (O/U 51) – A close, divisional game, I am skipping the spread but taking the Steelers and the moneyline. I could see the Over happening, but wouldn’t put too much of the whisky fund on it.
KC(-204) -4.5 @ DEN(+181) +3 (O/U 55) – It would be fair to say that even though the Broncos have a formidable defense, they probably don’t have the offense to keep up with the Chiefs. I’m digging KC with the line and the points. Another safe Over.
Here are a few Nick’s Picks to click for week 4:
3 TEAM PARLAY (DET +3.0) – (K.C. -4.5) – (NOS -178 ml)
2 TEAM PARLAY (SEA -3.0) – (CIN +197 ml)
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- Written by David Biggs
Week 4 is here and it's time to start dealing with more injuries and now bye weeks! The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins will be taking an early break this season, so there's plenty of fantasy players to be replaced. Rookies like Calvin Ridley and Sony Michel will find their way into many lineups this week. Good luck in Week 4 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Remember last week how I mentioned we are starting to get things figured out for this season? How it looks like we have an idea of what these teams will look like this year?
Yeah…just forget about all of that. This is the NFL – such realizations do not exist!
At least this week we have less opportunities to mess up as the bye weeks have begun. We will need to stay on top of our game now as there will be less points to grab!
Week 4 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
15 – JACKSONVILLE over New York Jets – The Jaguars learned last week that giving up 9 points might be too may to win…poor Sam Darnold!
14 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over San Francisco – Game 1 of the post-Jimmy G 2018 for the 9ers won’t be an easy one. The Chargers have an offense that make you score a lot to win.
13 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Minnesota – A short week to play against the league’s best team is not exactly the best way to get back on track after being embarrassed at home by the Bills.
12 – GREEN BAY over Buffalo – Speaking of the Bills, yeah they’re magic runs out this week.
11 – NEW ENGLAND over Miami – Never has it been so easy to say that a 1-2 team will have no problem beating an undefeated team.
10 – CHICAGO over Tampa Bay – The Jameis Winston suspension is over so Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to stay on top of his game to keep his job. Not exactly the defense you want to go against when you are playing for your job!
9 – PITTSBURGH over Baltimore – I got the sense last Monday that the Steelers may be starting to get back on the ball. That’s not good for the rest of the AFC North.
8 – ATLANTA over Cincinnati – Cincinnati’s road through the NFC South will continue to be a rough won after losing last week in Carolina.
7 – Kansas City over DENVER – Remember when people thought that Case Keenum was going to be the new AFC West quarterback who will make the biggest difference? Weeeeeellllllllllll…
6 – New Orleans over NEW YORK GIANTS – Drew Brees juked out two defenders with a spin move last week. I know it has nothing to do with this game but I just really wanted to mention that!
5 – TENNESSEE over Philadelphia – Are the Titans legit? After a win in Jacksonville, a win against the Eagles would help prove their case of contention.
4 – Seattle over ARIZONA – The Seattle defense might not be as dominant as it once was, but they should look like the Legion of Boom against a debuting Josh Rosen.
3 – INDIANAPOLIS over Houston – Buried in the return of Carson Wentz was the fact that the Colts came very close to beating the defending champs on the road last wekk.
2 – DALLAS over Detroit – The Cowboys just seem out of sorts. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE COWBOYS WILL FINISH THE SEASON IN LAST PLACE IN THE NFC EAST.
1 – Cleveland over OAKLAND – Things…things are bad in Oakland. As a Raider fan, I’m just glad the Browns’ won last week so THIS game wouldn’t be the one to end the losing streak.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
Well, the Vikings twisted the knife that was put in my heart week one by the Saints loss, and ended my dream of survivor riches. Boy am I looking forward to tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Vikings of Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams. Clearly, the Vikings have been preparing for this game for two weeks based on their performance last week against the Bills. It has been 23 years since an NFL team has been favored by as much as the Vikings were last week vs the Bills and lost, a truly historic game. I haven't watched much Vikings football this season, but on paper it seems to me that we are all finding out why the Redskins wouldn't pay Kirk Cousins. I got the Rams in this game and if it wasn't for some uncertainty at corner-back caused by injury, I would like the Rams in a runaway.
On to my not-never-wrong survivor lock pick of the week. The three largest favorites this week (as if that means anything) are the Chargers -10.5, Packers -9.5, and the Jaguars -7.5. Out of these three I am going to eliminate the Packers from my options, Josh Allen has two legs and Aaron Rodgers only has one. The Pack still probably get the win here but I'm just not comfortable picking the Packers until Rodgers looks healthier.
I like the Jags at home against Sam Darnold and the Jets. That defense is just too good and I think they will be able to confuse the rookie QB. I was given a little bit of pause by the Jags loss to the Titans last week, but I guess it was “for the boys”.
That brings me to my pick the San Diego - I mean Los Angeles Chargers. If you didn't already use the Chargers in week 2 against the Bills, this is the next best spot for them. They get the 49ers and backup QB C.J. Beathard coming in for a bounce back game. San Francisco's season went down the crapper when Jimmy “G-spot” tore up his knee on a moronic sideline cutback play. Never have I heard so much hate on a guy for an injury. The Chargers looked like a borderline playoff team against the Rams last week and could easily win the division if their defense ever shows up.
Cheers! Drink Five!
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- Written by Mike Mocerino
Last week I had some work come up and was unable to contribute! Hopefully you enjoyed all the upsets and won your fantasy matchup! Darn work gets in the way of fun from time to time.
Rookie QB’s
Something about Rookies gets me excited. It’s the potential. More often than not they are disappointing, but when they pan out it is exciting! This week we have 2 new Rookie QB’s getting thrown into the mix, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen get their first NFL starts. Why am I interested in watching them this week? Well, the potential.
Baker Mayfield looked much better then Tyrod Taylor when he came in to lead the Browns to victory last week. It will be interesting to see how this affects the rest of the team. Njoku should get back to the preseason hype level. Landry has already been quoted that Mayfield throws “with so much zing”. Calloway has some breakout potential and would have had an easy touchdown if Tyrod didn’t under throw him last week (he did drop a dime from Mayfield in the second half).
Josh Rosen got thrown to the wolves last week vs the Bears. Down in the 4th quarter against one of the scariest defenses in the league, perfect time to let the rookie show what he is made of. Rosen had great chemistry with Christian Kirk in the pre-season and I would expect to see his name on some waiver wire lists next week. The big thing to watch will be how the rookie benefits David Johnson, because quite frankly it can’t get worse….right?
Prediction- Baker Mayfield goes off passing for 300+ yards and touchdowns to 3 different receivers (Landry, Calloway, Njoku). Rosen looks more like a rookie, but David Johnson owners breathe a sigh of relief as he targets his best weapon out of the backfield and has his best fantasy performance of the year.
Thursday Night Football
Any football fan will sit down and watch Thursday night football, even a Jets vs Browns game. This week should be one of the better matchups on the season with two of the favorites to win the NFC squaring off.
Minnesota was downright awful last week vs Buffalo and looks to bounce back on the road vs the 3-0 Rams. The Vikings hold 27-16-2 record all time vs the Rams including last season when the Vikings blew out the Rams 24-7. A lot of the same faces this year, but two very different starts to the season. With a Vegas over/under set at 49.5, this should be a shoot-out and great fantasy days for all involved. I’m just excited to start Week 4 with what should be an exciting game.
Prediction: Minnesota coming into LA as underdogs score the last points of the game and that proves to be the difference. Final 38-35 Vikings
The Bills?
Did you see Josh Allen hurdle?! In an age when defenders are getting flagged for patting a quarterback on the head, no one expected Josh Allen to hurdle a tackle. He didn’t only do it with his legs (2 rushing TDs) he also went for 15-22 for 196 yards and a touchdown in a game where he did not need to pass much.
With LeSean McCoy coming back this week, I will be watching to see if McCoy can return any value with a new signal caller out there. Since Allen has already proved his ability to keep plays alive and use his legs, we might see more swing passes and option plays going McCoys way.
Prediction – The Bills lose to the Packers, but Josh Allen surprises with 250 yards, 1 passing touchdown and another one on the ground. His mobility opens up the game for LeSean McCoy and owners that nabbed him in the 4th or 5th round are starting to get excited.
Week 2 Recap
Denver Backfield - Nailed my prediction of Freeman getting in the end zone week 2 (did it again week 3) and both backs are RB2/Flex worthy. Lindsay got ejected for throwing a punch week 3, but he will be back and we can expect a split backfield once again.
JETS - Missed badly here. Darnold looks…..like a rookie. I called for Crow to get into the end zone twice in week 2, and was off a week in both directions. He scored twice in week 1 and twice in week 3. Maybe start Crow on odd number weeks? Smarter play is to avoid the Jets all together.
Steelers vs Chiefs – It was the highest scoring game of the week with a whopping 79 points. Kelce and Hunt also had great bounce back games. Missed on AB being the #1 WR of the week, but can’t win them all!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was a wild one around the NFL with some stunning upsets, most of which involved the NFC North. More importantly, we finally started to see a bigger chunk of the rookie class making their presence felt. Calvin Ridley, Kerryon Johnson, Josh Allen, Christian Kirk, Dallas Goedert and Baker Mayfield all had breakout games, and Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman stayed productive as well. We’ve also arrived at the Josh Rosen era in the desert. The rookie crop will continue to make a larger impact as the season rolls on, whether through improvement or attrition. It’s going to get harder each week to decide which rookies to take a chance on, so it’s a good thing I’m here to help sort it out. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 4.
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. NO): Saquon continues to demonstrate week in and week out that he’s a must start every week. The Giants’ offense may not be great, but he’s part of a very select group when it comes to usage, and that isn’t going to change barring injury. He’s an RB1 until further notice, and the Saints’ D is nothing to be afraid of this week.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): The Chiefs have been really impressive through 3 games overall, but the defense has been less than stellar. While Freeman has been a bit touchdown-dependent, there should be plenty of chances for the Broncos to get into scoring territory. Don’t be stunned if Freeman finds the end zone more than once. Game script might have the Broncos throwing more than they’d like, but that kind of scoring upside makes Royce a solid RB2 option in 12-team leagues.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Kerryon became the first Lions’ running back since Reggie Bush to top 100 yards in a game last week, and while he’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate the feat this week, his performance should at least earn him more opportunities. The Cowboys, defense isn’t exactly stingy, but the offense slows the game down a ton and limits the number of plays for the opposing offense. The Lions are still a pass-happy offense at heart, so the slow down likely means limited work for Johnson. Still, the rookie should be a solid bet for 60-70 yards from scrimmage and a potential TD.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): Michel dominated the running back carries for New England on Sunday night as Rex Burkhead surprisingly didn’t have a single carry. The results were mixed, with Sony flashing solid skill on several runs and going nowhere on several others. At the end of the day, the usage was promising, and the production should get better as the Pats’ offense finds its footing. He’s worth taking a chance on again this week in a matchup with Miami, who has allowed the 8th-most RB points per game (all rankings and point totals based on PPR scoring).
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Ridley put on a show last Sunday, but don’t get too enamored with the TD barrage he unleashed on the Saints. The pendulum will eventually swing back to Julio as defenses start to pay more attention to Ridley. The Bengals have been a much better pass defense thus far than the Saints, and I’d be surprised if they let Ridley get going the way he did last week again. This might be a week to target Julio in DFS lineups. As for Ridley, it’ll be hard to sit a player with the upside he’s shown over the past couple weeks. If you believe in the talent, keep starting him. I’d at least pause and look at my other options if I had solid other choices. At the very least, Ridley has demonstrated that it is possible for a prominent 1st round rookie WR to start his career fast.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Kirk was heavily featured for the first time in week 3 posting a 7-90 line on 8 targets, and there is a decent chance it happens again this week as Larry Fitzgerald fights through a hamstring issue. There is some risk here with a new starting quarterback, but I believe the switch to Josh Rosen makes the Cardinals’ offense better, not worse, and Kirk was targeted 3 times in Rosen’s 2 possessions at QB. Kirk is a flex option in deeper PPR leagues.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 4: @GB): Allen is coming off his best day as a pro, a dazzling performance against the vaunted Vikings’ defense where he scored twice on the ground and once through the air in an emphatic victory. The win, however, included a bit of good fortune and good defense early on that staked the Bills to an early lead. Minnesota extended Buffalo’s first scoring drive with a late hit penalty on a 3rd-down sack. Then Kirk Cousins handed the Bills the ball deep in Vikes territory with two bad fumbles where he just didn’t feel the pressure coming. I don’t expect the same kind of perfect start at Lambeau. There is a chance that Allen does some stat-padding if the Bills fall behind in this one, but I wouldn’t trust him as more than a low-end QB2. The Packers will be playing angry coming off a disappointing loss last week, and they won’t sleep on the Bills like Minnesota did.
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Rosen has officially been announced as the starter moving forward, and it hopefully will jumpstart the Cards’ offense. I’m hesitant to put much faith in him this week against a Seahawks’ defense that has been playing surprisingly well despite a lot of roster turnover. The ‘Hawks rank 4th in the league in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’ll be watching Rosen closely this week, but he should only be started if you’re desperate in a 2-QB league.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Darnold has posted back-to-back shaky performances after a strong NFL debut, and now he gets to face one of the most feared secondaries in the league. The Jaguars have allowed the 4th-fewest QB points per game and will make it a long Sunday for Darnold.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Lindsay was a disappointment last week after being ejected for throwing a punch on Sunday. It may have opened the door for Devontae Booker to push his way back into a role in the offense, and Lindsay might see some reduced playing time as a result of his transgression. There’s still a chance that the rookie goes right back to putting up 100 scrimmage yards this week, but I’d be cautious about trotting him out there in lineups this week.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): Penny seemed to be working his way into a big role, but that all changed in week 3 as Chris Carson tallied over 30 carries. Penny is clearly relegated to the second string again, and until we know that’s changed you just can’t trust him in lineups.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Chubb’s time seemed to be on the horizon as Carlos Hyde struggled with his efficiency in the first 2 weeks, but Hyde took a big step forward in week 3. The veteran back posted his best game as a Brown and likely bought himself at least a couple more weeks as Cleveland’s clear lead back. Chubb will continue to spell Hyde for the time being, but he isn’t getting enough work to be useful in fantasy right now.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Adams looks like the next man up in the Eagles’ backfield group with Jay Ajayi sidelined, but he’s not worth trusting in fantasy yet. He carried just 6 times in week 3 and wasn’t targeted. There’s a chance that Ajayi returns this week, which would render Adams totally useless. If Ajayi sits, 6-8 touches feels like the most you can hope for.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Smith will continue to see some work to keep Tevin Coleman fresh as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but not enough of it. Smith handled just 5 touches last week to 17 for Coleman. That kind of work gives him just enough opportunity to flash his skills without being useful in fantasy.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Washington has seen much more playing time over the last couple games than he did week 1, but it hasn’t resulted in big production. The Ravens aren’t likely to be the team he breaks out against. Baltimore ranks 6th in the league in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed just 10 catches to WRs per game, and the vast majority of those will go to JuJu and Antonio Brown.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Gallup’s targets have climbed from 1 to 2 to 4 in the first 3 games of the year, but he’s caught just 1 pass each week. He also was on the wrong side of a highlight-reel interception by Earl Thomas after Gallup couldn’t hang on to the ball. His usage is trending up, but his production is not. Keep waiting on Gallup.
TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): The Seahawks finally got a chance to play from ahead in week 3, and Will Dissly’s production disappeared as a result. Seattle is a 3-point favorite on the road this weekend, and it’s hard to count on him to return to productive ways if they do in fact play from in front. The TE position has been a bit desolate this year, but there are probably better options you can find this week.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 4: @NE): Gesicki posted his best game as a pro last Sunday, but it’s going to take a bit more than 3 catches for 31 yards for me to buy into the Penn State alum. He was targeted just 3 times against Oakland and had just 1 catch prior to last Sunday.
TE Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 4: @Ind.): The Colts are an inviting tight end matchup, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position and at least 57 yards each week, but Akins has totaled just 5-50-0 in 3 weeks.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): If you play in a 2-QB league and have Cam Newton or Alex Smith as one of your weekly starters, Baker could make for a nice bye week fill-in. He didn’t post a TD in his debut, but he looked fantastic in leading the Browns to just their second win since 2015. The Raiders rank just 31st in pass defense DVOA, and I don’t think they have quite enough film on Baker to be able to shut him down this week. I’m excited to see what he does for an encore.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Hou.): Marlon Mack’s status is still up in the air for this week, and Hines has shown himself to be the only other Colts’ back worth considering. Jordan Wilkins hasn’t really made much happen with his limited opportunity, but Hines has shown himself to be a useful receiver out of the backfield. It would help him if Andrew Luck gets back the ability to push the ball down the field to create more space for screens and other short passes, but Hines has the athleticism to make a big play happen at any time. That explosiveness makes him an intriguing punt option in DFS tournaments.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Callaway was a letdown last week, but he was a letdown that was targeted 10 times. If that volume continues, it’s only a matter of time until he has that breakout game. Baker Mayfield’s accuracy and quick decision-making should open up the Cleveland offense a bit, and make Callaway even more of a threat. If he’s still available in your league, you should rectify that. He has solid upside in week 4 against a poor Oakland secondary.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): This week is a good one to take a chance on Sutton in DFS tournaments or if you’re desperate for a flex option in deeper leagues. The Chiefs are heavy favorites and lack much of a pass defense. If Denver is chasing points, Sutton is going to see a solid number of targets against the defense. KC is allowing the 7th-most WR points per game so far.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Much like Sutton above, Miller is going to face a team with a lackluster defense and explosive offense. The Bears aren’t a team that’s likely to be involved in a shootout, but if you expect Fitzmagic to continue this week, Miller will have a chance to put up a solid day as the Bears try to keep pace. He’s worth a dice roll as a cheap DFS tournament play. He left last Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury, but posted that he was fine on twitter afterward.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Goedert may have been the most surprising rookie performance of last weekend. He managed to out-target and out-produce Zach Ertz in the return of QB Carson Wentz. Wentz’s affinity for his tight ends is well known, so I’d look for Goedert to remain a big part of the offense at least until Alshon Jeffery returns. The Titans have allowed the fewest TE points per game, but they have yet to face a decent tight end. Goedert is an interesting DFS tournament option this week.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 4: @Pit.): The Steelers have been absolutely shredded by tight ends each of the last 2 weeks, and Andrews is averaging just over 8 points per game (PPR). He’s still splitting work with Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams (at least until Hayden Hurst returns), but he is a decent DFS dart throw again this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you aren’t starting any injured players come game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) and let me know. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
2 Records to Start the Season
Last week, we checked in on Patrick Mahomes and Michael Thomas's blistering starts. This week, they both continued their record making/breaking pace. Mahomes now has 13 TD to start the season, the most by anyone ever. He's averaging over 30 points per game, leading all non-magical quarterbacks. He'll get Denver in week 4, his toughest match so far, but certainly one where he can keep up his pace. Meanwhile, Thomas added another 10 receptions to his season total, bringing it to 38. All of this on just 40 targets - he's almost having a perfect season. He's still on pace for over 200 receptions, a ridiculous number, but I'm just a sucker for ridiculous early season extrapolation.
565 Field Goals Made
Kickers rarely make this column, but I'm generally OK with making an exception for future hall-of-famers. Adam Vinatieri went 3 for 3 in Philly on Sunday to tie Morten Anderson's all time record of 565 field goals made. Congrats to Adam, for completing this in just your 23rd season. Yea, Adam was kicking field goals way back during Clinton's first term in office. Anderson played even longer - he was drafted before I was born, and kicked his last FG after my 26th birthday. Vinatieri will probably pass Anderson's record for most points, as he's only 33 behind him now. Will a kicker make this column twice in one year?
Over 40 Fantasy Points
Drew Brees and Matt Ryan have now faced off something like 20 times, and Sunday might have been the highest scoring affair of all of them. Both QBs managed to top 40 fantasy points in a game, combined for 770 passing yards and 10 total TDs. The Saints have been coming from behind in every game this year, and it's resulted in some huge fantasy production. Not only the afore mentioned Brees and Michael Thomas, but Alvin Kamara is living up to his draft stock and has the 2nd most points among RBs. For the Falcons, this is Matt Ryan's best game since 2016, and the first time that he's thrown 5 passing TDs in one game. Three of those went to Falcons rookie Calvin Ridley, who put up a 7 for 146 line and will be the waiver wire darling of the week. He was only 22% owned in Yahoo leagues going into Sunday's games, so look for him in your league this week.
5th Most Points in Week 3
One of the best performances of the week belongs to a guy owned in just 3% of Yahoo leagues. He's responsible for the biggest upset of the season so far, and the destroyer of survivor pools. That's right, it's Josh Allen, Buffalo's rookie QB. Allen was an efficient 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and no picks, while running in two on his own. I'm not saying you go out and pick him up, but it was enough to beat the Minnesota Vikings, who were favored by 16.5 points. This is now two straight weeks of just 3 points for the Vikings DST, which has to now go face the Rams on a short week. This is probably the time to move on and stream another team. It still remains to be seen if the Vikings are really this bad, or if they just got caught looking ahead to the next game.
3 of the top 10 TEs
Using the drinkfive fantasy league as a measuring stick (standard scoring, 10 teams), only 3 of the top 10 TEs this week are even on teams. This week's top 10 TE list is dominated by guys owned in 2% or fewer of Yahoo leagues. Dallas Goedert led the way with a measly 13.3 points, and was only one of three guys to hit double digits. Both OJ Howard and Jesse James have a shot at that tonight, bringing a little stability to a position that has some of the worst production it's seen in years. At this point, I feel that playing a TE is just a dart throw and a hope that he will find the end zone. Streaming a TE this season seems more relevant than ever, and I would definitely go that route if you are not getting the production you want out of the TE slot.
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck!
Hey everybody, welcome to the first installment of 2018's 'Nick's Picks'. If you were looking for the column in weeks one and two, I didn't write one. As I have mentioned the last few seasons, the first two weeks are too difficult to grade talent and make legitimate wagers. This rule also applies to Thursday night games during the whole season, as the shortened rest and time to game plan can throw off the dynamic of a game in a major way. This week also looks a little difficult as far as deciding on matchups, so I am going to ease into the season by being very picky and frugal. Again, you don't have to win big every week... pick your spots.
Green Bay Packers(-140) 33 @ Washington Redskins(+125) 16 --- GB -2.5 --- Over 45 --- The Packers are a safe play this week, money line and spread. If they are going to tie the powerhouse Vikings with a hobbled Aaron Rodgers, then I just can't, and won't believe the Redskins will stop him. The only way Washington gets a win is if they take Rodgers out of the game some how.
New Orleans Saints(+115) 30 @ Atlanta Falcons(-128) 24 --- NO +2 --- Over 53 --- I'm taking the Saints this week as an underdog in a game where I feel the offense will really hit their stride. I'm not sure which defense will show up for New Orleans, but it can't be worse than the ones in the first two weeks of the season.
Oakland Raiders (+135) 20 @ Miami Dolphins(-150) 34 --- MIA -3 --- Over 44.5 --- Haven't seen anything from the Raiders yet to make me think they can even beat a middle rate team like the Dolphins. A comfortable moneyline.
Cincinnati Bengals(+136) 23 @ Carolina Panthers(-152) 26 --- CAR -2.5(I dropped it 0.5 pts. from -3) --- Over 44.5 --- I believe this will be one of the closest contests of the week and am treading lightly. I don't dig the moneyline for this close of a bump and grind.
Denver Broncos(+214) 16 @ Baltimore Ravens(-243) 23 --- BAL -5.5(I dropped it 0.5 pts. from -6.0) --- Under 46.5 --- Another close game, as I am not a true believer in either of these teams to win on a consistent basis. Both teams have talent but can't put it all together. Even though I have the Ravens to cover the spread, I'd stay away from putting the farm on the unfavorable moneyline.
New York Giants(+215) 13 @ Houston Texans(-245) 30 --- HOU -6.0 --- Over 43.5 --- The Giants suck and Houston is better. Unless New York can get Odell involved and protect Eli, it doesn't matter if they drafted the best rookie RB of the last decade. Moneyline isn't too bad for a victory this decisive.
San Francisco 49ers(+242) 30 @ Kansas City Chiefs(-115) 44 --- KCC -6.0 --- Over 54.5 --- Most likely one of the highest scoring games of the week, go ahead and take the over on this contest with confidence. Even though both teams will be scoring like crackheads on customer appreciation night, I still think the Chiefs will put it off by at least a touchdown. Safe moneyline for the home team, even though the riches aren't there.
Indianapolis Colts(+248) 19 @ Philadelphia Eagles(-284) 27 --- PHI -7.0 --- Over 46.0 --- Carson Wentz's first game back will have doubters, but he is still an upgrade from Nick Foles. The Eagles should be fine, especially against the Colts, who are still getting their groove back with Andrew Luck. The moneyline is safe with that Philly Defense having it's greenbacks.
Buffalo Bills(+851) 9 @ Minnesota Vikings(-1351) 51 --- MIN -16.5 --- Over 41.0 --- Let's see, this is the biggest blowout of the week, maybe the season, so definitely take the spread as the Vikings will at least win by 17 points. They will also score at least 41 points by themselves so grab the over. Finally, even though that moneyline is huge for Minnesota, this is one of those games where it pays to be a big spender.
Los Angeles Chargers(+266) 20 @ Los Angeles Rams(-306) 37 --- LAR -7.5 --- Over 48.5 --- I would say the Chargers defense would make this a closer contest, but the lack of presence from Joey Bosa will continue to be a factor. Philip Rivers and company have the firepower to put away most teams by staying ahead of them, but the Rams are not most teams. Gurley and Goff will definitely lay down the hurt. Safe enough moneyline, spread and over.
Chicago Bears(-232) 27 @ Arizona Cardinals(+204) 6 --- CHI -5.5 --- Under 39.0 --- This is a gravy game. The Cardinals will be lucky to score a field goal per half, so take the Bears in every conceivable wagering category.
Dallas Cowboys(+111) 20 @ Seattle Seahawks(-124) 27 --- SEA -2.0 --- Over 40.5 --- A game which can give you nightmares because both teams are confusing to pin down. Safely take the numbers given, but l'd look for games with less risk.
New England Patriots(-289) 34 @ Detroit Lions(+252) 23 --- NEP -6.5(I dropped it 0.5 pts. from -7.0) --- Over 54 --- The Patriots should not have a problem pulling this one off and judging by how they rarely lose back to back games, the moneyline is a safe bet and good value.
Pittsburgh Steelers(-104) 34 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-106) 31 --- PIT -1.0 --- Over 54 --- A very close game in which I think the Steelers will win due to them rarely going winless for three straight contests. The safest play on this one is the over.
Nick's Picks of the week:
3 game parlay --- GBP -2.5 --- HOU -6.0 --- KCC -6.0
3 game parlay --- PHI -7.0 --- MIN -16.5 --- LAR -7.5
2 game parlay --- CHI -5.5 --- NEP -7.0