Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've almost made it all the way through NFL Draft season, and Thursday night we can finally start to put all of the smokescreens, misinformation, and mock drafts behind us as we learn where these players are really going...but first, let's do just a little bit more speculating. The information you're about to read below isn't a mock draft. It isn't an indication of where these players are going to be drafted. It's simply me trying to fit the puzzle pieces together in a way that would be most beneficial to each of the players for their career development and long-term fantasy upside.
I will be posting breakdowns of the RB, WR and TE positions in the coming hours, but with the QBs in particular, a few of these landing spots have just about zero chance of actually happening without some really surprising trades. That's going to happen when a QB-needy team like Buffalo isn't a good landing spot for anyone. The Bills are going to draft a QB and will probably trade up to do it, but their weapons are so bad at this point I wouldn't want any QB saddled with that situation. With all of that in mind, here are my favorite landing spots for the top QBs in the 2018 draft.
(Player, College – Favorite Landing Spot)
Josh Rosen, UCLA - New York Giants: This landing spot would be a good one for Rosen, and for the Giants. New York is widely expected to draft Saquon Barkley at this point, but Rosen would be a better choice. The Giants don't plan on picking this high again any time soon, and Eli Manning is 37 years old and has led the team to just one winning season in the past 5 years. The time to put a succession plan in place is now.
Rosen is the safest QB in this draft, and the one who fits the Giants' offense best. He's a pure pocket passer who will play within the structure of the scheme, much like Eli, and he can throw with accuracy to all 3 levels of the field. He'll have exciting weapons in Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram that will give him QB1 upside as soon as he takes over as starter. There's been a lot of talk about Rosen's attitude and varied interests outside of football being an issue for him, but I think that's nonsense. His personality kind of reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, and that hasn't been a problem for Rodgers' game at the NFL level. As a passer, the more apt comparison is Matt Ryan. If the Giants select Rosen, I think their QB position will be secured for the next decade.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Cleveland Browns: Mayfield's name has been popping up lately as a potential pick for the Browns at number 1, and that's who I hope they go with. If it isn't Mayfield, they should certainly go with Sam Darnold over Josh Allen. The reason I like Mayfield is because the Browns have the pieces to install more elements of a spread offense like the one Mayfield thrived in at Oklahoma.
Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku make for a formidable group of receiving threats, and Duke Johnson is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield as well. Gordon and Coleman each have experience in a spread offense from their time at Baylor. The Browns also have a veteran mobile QB on the roster in Tryod Taylor who can help Mayfield learn some of the nuance of the position at the NFL level. I would expect Tyrod to open the season as the starter, but Mayfield should take over at some point near midseason and never look back.
Sam Darnold, USC - Los Angeles Chargers: This pairing is highly unlikely to become reality unless the Chargers make a big trade up, but it's one that is fun to think about. The biggest strength of Darnold's game is his ability to make accurate throws from difficult angles when the defensive pressure causes him to throw without his usual mechanics. The two NFL QBs who do this best are Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford. Since Stafford is 30 and Rivers is going to turn 37 this year, LA is the team that will need a replacement sooner. It's hard to say how many more years Rivers will play before deciding to hang it up and spend more time with his 7 kids (seriously, he has 7 of them), but playing behind Rivers for a year or two could really help Darnold hit his ceiling as a QB.
Darnold has a ton of upside, but he has a tendency to be a bit of a gunslinger and makes some questionable decisions. Rivers would be a great mentor to help Darnold learn to rein that in a little bit, and the weapons in LA should be good for several years with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams around. It's easy to see the Favre-ian upside in Darnold, but if he doesn't improve his decision making, he could just as easily be the next Jay Cutler or worse.
Lamar Jackson, Louisville - New Orleans Saints: Jackson has more fantasy upside than any other QB in this class thanks to his rushing ability. He has the speed and elusiveness of Michael Vick, and is far more advanced as a passer entering the league than Vick was after playing in a pro-style offense under Bobby Petrino at Louisville.
The best-case scenario for Jackson would be landing on a team with a creative offensive coach who will build an offense around him to best maximize his considerable talents. There are 3 teams with coaching staffs that I would trust to do that: New England, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. The Eagles have Carson Wentz and Nick Foles still, so they don't have enough need at QB to spend the draft capital it'll take to land Jackson.
The other two teams should both be looking to life beyond their current Hall of Fame QBs. Either one would be a good landing spot for Jackson, but I give the nod to New Orleans because of the weapons he'll have to work with. In New England, Amendola is gone, Cooks is gone, Julian Edelman will be 32 years old, and Gronk is already hinting at retirement. The Saints have young stars in Alvin Kamara and Mike Thomas, and added another promising youngster in Cam Meredith. Because of that edge in surrounding talent, New Orleans is the place I most want to see Lamar.
Josh Allen, Wyoming – Pittsburgh Steelers: If NFL Draft scouts weren't so in love with size and raw arm strength from QBs, Allen to Pittsburgh might actually be realistic. Instead, the consensus is that Allen will be off the board in the top 10 picks, possibly even at number one. The Steelers, who currently pick at 28, aren't moving up to get him. Still, I think this is the spot that would best serve him in making good on his potential. Ben Roethlisberger was already talking about retirement after the 2016 season, so it's not hard to envision him walking away in the next year or two. Similarly to Allen, Roethlisberger is a big, physical, strong-armed QB who played his college ball in a smaller conference. He'd be a great player for Allen to learn from while he works on his game as the number 2 QB.
Pittsburgh is also a landing spot that wouldn't have nearly as much pressure as the other places he could go...the pressure of being a savior in Cleveland, the pressure of the media scrutiny in New York, or the pressure of having the franchise's hero QB in the front office in Denver. Buffalo is another spot that would lack that pressure, but Buffalo doesn't have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster or a winning culture. Although this landing spot won't happen, I think it would be ideal for Allen.
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State – Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals' offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has said that they will tailor the offense to fit the quarterback they end up with, but McCoy's NFL roots trace back to the vertical passing 'Air Coryell' offense and Mason Rudolph has better accuracy on the deep ball than he does on short and intermediate throws.
The Cardinals could use an upgrade in weapons, but Larry Fitzgerald and a healthy David Johnson are a good starting point. With Sam Bradford slated to start, Rudolph likely will get some action this year when Bradford inevitably misses games. Rudolph is the best QB in the draft after the group of guys expected to go in the first round.
Kyle Lauletta, Richmond - New England Patriots: Lauletta is accurate and is a quick decision maker that really fits what the Patriots' offense does. His arm strength is questionable, but so was Brady's when he came into the league. The things Lauletta does well are a great fit for the scheme the Pats already run. He's also great in the play-action game, makes good decisions, and maneuvers the pocket very well while going through his progressions. I fully believe Brady will play out the two years remaining on his contract before he retires, and drafting Lauletta would allow for a seamless transition when that happens. He's got the upside to be a franchise QB.
Luke Falk, Washington State – Washington Redskins: Falk has a bit of a transition and learning curve ahead of him after playing his college career in Mike Leach's 'Air Raid' offense which is pretty much exclusively a shotgun spread offense. Playing under center and learning more pro concepts will be important parts of a successful transition. Falk lacks the arm strength to throw deep consistently, and current Washington starter Alex Smith is usually too risk averse to go deep himself, but has managed to put together a strong NFL career despite that. Smith is the ideal player for Falk to learn from as he makes the transition, and with Smith being almost 34 years old, he's a player Falk could supplant as starter in a couple years. He has the upside to be a similar game-managing starting QB who can win if surrounded with the right pieces and scheme.
That's all I've got for the QBs. I'm sure you'll disagree with at least some of what I've said above. Don't be a stranger; reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Be sure to check out the landing spot pieces on the RB, WR, and TE positions as well. They're sure to have just as many things you disagree with as this one. Enjoy the draft!
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- Written by Jason Evans
Third year WRs tend to be a hot commodity come draft time, so let’s take a look in to some past successes and failures, along with a few more of the third year guys coming up in 2018. If you haven’t done so, check out Part 1.
A quick review over last year's WRs in their third season showed a few definite successes from further down the ranks, and a few disappointments from the top. Most notably, DeVante Parker was probably the most hyped player preseason, but turned in a crappy 670 yards and just 1 TD.
Amari Cooper was the other top draft disappointment. He put up over 1000 yards in his first two seasons, and then finished 31st overall at WR in 2017. Only 2 of the 9 WRs drafted in the first two rounds in 2015 finished in the top 25 - Devin Funchess (21st) and Nelson Agholor (22nd).
The lack of success stories from last year are a bit of a reflection of a down WR year in general. Stefon Diggs did manage to finish on top of the class, but he was only about 3 points higher than Funchess and Agholor. In all, the best that the 2015 class could achieve is the 4th tier of WRs.
There are some lower round picks that still look promising, but didn't break out in their third year. Tyler Lockett, Jamison Crowder and J.J. Nelson have all shown at least a few flashes of being big fantasy producers. Heck, even the converted RB Ty Montgomery technically counts as a WR drafted in 2015.
The 2014 WR draft class had an even bigger group in the first two rounds - 12 guys, and considerably more success. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks, Marqise Lee, Davante Adams and Jarvis Landry are all guys who were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round and either had a considerable jump in their 3rd year, or were already at the top and had another good season.
Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Allen Robinson all took a step back in their third season, but remained fantasy relevant. The pickings were slim further down the draft board, with only Martavis Bryant really generating any interest, but winding up suspended that year.
Over the last couple of years, there's plenty of examples of big seasons from third year WRs, but a lot of them are from players who had success very early in their career. A true breakout WR1 performance like Davante Adams in 2016 isn't that common, but getting guys up to the WR3 level is a very reasonable thing to expect.
This year, there's 12 guys whose chances we're considering for a 2018 breakout. In Part 1, we had the 1st round guys - now we'll do guys from rounds 2 through 4 (some of them in there are already irrelevant and have been skipped). Part 3 will cover the last 4 guys that were drafted before Tyreek Hill.
Sterling Shepard (NYG) - Shepard was the 40th overall pick in 2016, and had a pretty respectable rookie year. Unfortunately, he dropped to only 85.5 points in 11 games (7.77 ppg) last year, compared to 119.4 points over 16 games (9.95 ppg). This drop in points per game also came with an increase in targets per game (from 6.56 in 2016 to 7.64 last year).
So, Sterling went through the stereotypical “sophomore slump”, but this is not all his fault (apart from injuries), considering how bad his team was last year. The WR position was decimated for the Giants last season – Shepard missing only 6 games made him one of the more reliable WRs on the team. When he was in, his production was volatile, mostly because the team had no idea what they were doing.
In 2017, the 3 games where he had 10 or more targets Shepard went over 100 receiving yards and had at least 14 fantasy points in each game. Those were his first 100+ receiving games since Week 2 of his rookie year, so we are seeing improvement in his ceiling, if not improvement in his floor as a fantasy player. What I want to see from Shepard in 2018 is better performances in his bad games. 5 (out of 11) games under 5 points in standard scoring is going to keep him on the bench most weeks.
We move on to the biggest question with Shepard, and that’s about his team. What will he be surrounded by in 2018? Thus far, he has a new coach – the offensive minded Pat Shurmur, who made Adam Thielen into a pro-bowler and Stefon Diggs into the best 3rd year WR in 2017. It looks like QB Eli Manning will return for another season as the Giants starter, despite Ben McAdoo’s best efforts, so this is a definite plus for Shepard.
At WR, Shepard should move into the 2 spot once the Giants part ways with Brandon Marshall, which is very likely to happen since the 34-year old is coming off of a couple of major injuries and cutting him will save over $5 million from the cap. Odell Beckham Jr. will be back and will command a majority of the targets, as well as WR1 draft status and lots of attention from opposing defenses.
I give Sterling Shepard a 50% chance at breaking out into a solid WR3 for the Giants. This reflects the Giants likely drafting an offensive player at #2 that is not a QB or WR (meaning the pick will be complimentary and not take away from his possible production). I really have my doubts that he can move into WR2 territory, but anything is possible when you have a running mate like OBJ.
Tyler Boyd (CIN) – Drafted 55th overall (2nd round), Boyd was taken just a few picks after Michael Thomas (47th) and was the last WR taken until late in the third round. A similar refrain with all these WRs, Boyd missed some time in his 2nd season due to injury and this really caused him to take a step back in 2017. Boyd had at least 2 receptions in all but 2 games of his rookie season, which made his future look promising. The script was flipped in 2017, where Boyd only had more than 2 receptions in 2 games – just the last two of the season.
Boyd’s 2017 is almost a throw-away season, but he played so much that this has to be taken into account. If you remove the last two games, he averaged just 1.5 receptions per game. The one bright spot is that he scored the game winning TD in Week 17 to eliminate the Baltimore Ravens from playoff contention. His biggest play wasn’t even fantasy relevant since it occurred in Week 17, so he was a total zero in fantasy last season.
I don’t think that Boyd’s roster spot is guaranteed this season. Ahead of him on the depth chart are A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell, along with last year’s rookie dud John Ross. I have to assume that all things being equal, Ross will be given more chances than Boyd to produce on the field and make the team. This will likely be a preseason competition, but not one to bother following closely.
I give Boyd just a 20% chance to become a WR3 this season. He would need a lot of things to work in his favor and would definitely need to pass LaFell up on the depth chart. I put Boyd’s chances so low because of his 2nd year regression and the rest of the skill position talent on the Bengals. Boyd’s only chance is really if he solidifies the starting spot opposite Green and if Joe Mixon takes over as a 3-down player, eliminating lots of Bernard’s targets.
Braxton Miller (HOU) - Miller was picked #85 overall by the Texans, and has struggled to make it in the lineup for various reasons during his first two years. Aside from injuries, he's been a healthy scratch several times and has only played in 21 games, having a reception in only 16 of them. Needless to say, Braxton Miller hasn't done much in the NFL.
The Texans are full steam ahead to squeeze through their Super Bowl window, and this will probably leave Miller as the odd man out in Houston. I give Miller just a 10% chance of being fantasy relevant at all this season. He will probably be in an NFL camp this summer, but at this point he's probably not worth keeping around on your dynasty roster into next year.
Chris Moore (BAL) - Pick 114 in the 2015 draft by the Baltimore Ravens was Chris Moore. He's played in a whopping 28 games, which is very good for this draft class. Much of this action is due to his good play on special teams, which definitely makes him more valuable to a team - and more likely to get chances with the ball. Thus far, he hasn't had very much action on offense, but at least his career has trended in the right direction.
After just 7 receptions in his rookie year, he improved in every receiving stat over year two, though he only had 18 receptions. He did manage 3 TDs last season and his yards per reception went up to 13.8. Moore has never really been the guy, but then again, the Ravens passing game has been sluggish at best over the last couple of years.
This year, the Ravens have acquired Michael Crabtree (and not Ryan Grant) who will sit atop the depth chart. Currently Chris Moore is going to be up against first round (thus far) flop Breshad Perriman and former Cardinal John Brown for the second starting WR spot on the Ravens. Moore has the good fortune of being in just the right spot at the right time to take this starting job.
I give Moore a 50% chance of being fantasy relevant this season - not too bad for a 4th round pick three years ago. This doesn't really put him in as a end of draft flier in my opinion, but he is a guy to keep on your radar during the preseason. I'd say he has only a 15% chance at being a WR3, or someone you would want to start on a regular basis next year.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! With the NFL Combine completed, the offseason is in full swing. Trades are happening, vets are being released or retiring, and NFL front offices have got the media spin machine up and running ahead of the start of the league year next week. Despite the flurry of NFL news we’ve been seeing in recent weeks, there is still plenty more news to come before the NFL Draft. Since so much of a rookie's outlook can depend on landing spot and how early they're drafted, it would be premature to rank the rookies for fantasy purposes at this point. That doesn't mean we have nothing to talk about though. We've seen plenty of the top prospects take part in the Senior Bowl, and just about all of them took part in the Combine in some shape or form. This week, I wanted to take a look at which prospects have helped and hurt their stock the most so far this offseason. Let's dive in...
Quarterbacks:
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Stock Up: Mayfield backed up a strong week at the Senior Bowl with another strong week at the Combine. Questions will still abound about his size and his maturity level, but I think he's secured himself as a top-5 pick in the upcoming draft. Mayfield measured a little taller than expected at the Combine, and threw the ball well in drills and demonstrated solid arm strength. The film on Mayfield is solid, but there have been several questions about him that the film doesn't answer. He has at least started answering some of those questions based on the feedback being put out by some scouts and personnel people in Indy.
Josh Allen, Wyoming - Stock Down: Josh Allen has been talked about as a potential top overall pick in the draft for weeks now, but with the scrutiny that comes with scouting season, and the Senior Bowl and Combine weeks, more of the warts of his game have been showing through. Yes, he has a big arm and ran well in the 40-yard dash, but his inaccuracy has been on full display, often misfiring badly when he does miss a throw. People see the athleticism and the cannon and want to project him to be Andrew Luck or Carson Wentz, but more of the scouts are starting to see the possibility that he ends up closer to Kyle Boller. You'll hear about Allen in the top-5 a bunch between now and draft day, but don't be surprised if he slips out of the top-10.
Sam Darnold, USC – Stock Down: Darnold elected not to do any throwing at the Combine but elected to do the athletic testing, which he showed very poorly in. Sam tested in the 22nd percentile of SPARQ scores. His lack of mobility is a little troubling for a guy who can be kind of a gunslinger at times. If he can't escape the pocket, is he going to throw into to trouble when pressured? Darnold is still likely to be a first-round pick in the Draft and can still impress at USC's pro day, but as a guy who is being projected as a possible #1 overall pick, the Combine didn't do him any favors.
Running Backs:
Saquon Barkley, Penn State – Stock Up: Barkley was already pretty much a consensus for the 1.01 pick in rookie drafts before the Combine, but his performance in Indy should have converted any doubters. Barkley weighed in at 233 pounds, and ran a blistering 4.40 40-yard dash and posted the best vertical jump of any RB at the Combine (41”). To have that kind of explosion and athleticism at Barkley's size is special, and the work he put on film at Penn State already had him as the best back in this class. If you have the first pick in a rookie draft, you'd be a fool not to take Saquon. If you really don't want him, there is bound to be someone in your league who does and will pay a king's ransom for him.
Nick Chubb, Georgia – Stock Up: Chubb was overshadowed by the incredible numbers Barkley put up in Indy, but he had an impressive week himself. Chubb ran faster than expected at 4.52 in the 40 and showed more explosion than expected with a 38.5”vertical jump. He also showed his strength by matching the impressive 29 bench press reps that Barkley put up. While Saquon and Derrius Guice are widely considered to be the top 2 running backs in this class, there are a handful of backs behind them that are grouped very closely together, and Chubb did a great job of helping himself stand out among that group. He should go in the top half of the first round in most rookie drafts.
Ronald Jones II, USC – Stock Down: Jones saw his stock start to slip even before the combine as scouts started to point out his lack of prowess as a between-the-tackles runner, and his lack of receiving production in college. He also seemed undersized to be an every-down back in the NFL. He could have really helped himself with a strong showing at the Combine, but it was not to be. He weighed in at just 205 pounds. Only 7% of all running backs 5'11” or taller at the Combine in the past 15 years have weighed 205 or less (per @GrahamBarfield), and the list doesn't include much success outside of Jamaal Charles. Jones could have really helped himself with a fast 40 time, but he pulled up with a hamstring issue during his run and ran a 4.66. He can still help himself by running a quality time at his pro day, but as of now, it's hard not to view Jones as being towards the tail end of the top-10 rookie backs.
Bo Scarbrough, Alabama – Stock Up: There hasn't been a ton of buzz around Scarbrough so far this offseason, but he changed that at the Combine. Bo has mostly been viewed by the scouting community as a physical grinder who wasn't overly athletic, but he changed that perception in a big way last week. Bo ran a 4.52 40-yard dash, and also stunned with a 40”vertical (2nd only to Saquon) and a 10'9” broad jump (best among RBs). He also was better than expected in receiving drills in Indy. He went from being a guy that not many people were excited about to someone who may wind up a top-8 RB in this class.
Kamryn Pettway, Auburn – Stock Down: Like Scarbrough, Pettway also came into Indianapolis with a reputation of being a physical runner, but his measurable numbers didn't do him any favors. He weighed in at the same size as Saquon Barkley, but he ran just 4.75 in the 40-yard dash. That's basically fullback speed. He may wind up undrafted despite posting a 1,200-yard season in just 10 games in the bruising SEC a couple years ago. He shouldn't be on your fantasy radar.
Royce Freeman, Oregon – Stock Up: Freeman has long been viewed as one of the better backs in this class, and he tested better at the Combine than expected. Freeman ran a 4.55 40-yard dash and displayed some agility with a respectable 6.90 in the 3-cone drill. He also looked smoother than expected in receiving drills. Landing spot will be a big deal for Freeman, but if the fit is right, he could push for a spot in the top 5 or 6 backs in this class.
Chase Edmonds, Fordham – Stock Up: Edmonds probably isn't a guy that's been on your radar, but he posted some eye-opening numbers at the Combine that could make him a sneaky mid-round rookie pick in dynasty leagues. Edmonds stands just 5'9” and weighs 205, but he managed to bench press 225 lbs 19 times. He also had the best time in the 3-cone drill of all of the backs that participated and posted a respectable 4.55 40-yard dash. Edmonds will also get a boost from his versatility, as he worked out at wide receiver as well as running back. His skill set is reminiscent of Dion Lewis, and it wouldn't surprise me if he wound up in New England as a replacement for the free agent back on the Pats’ roster.
Wide Receivers:
DJ Moore, Maryland – Stock Up: Moore came into the Combine with some question marks about his size, and he actually measured in a little bigger than expected at 6’0” and 210 pounds. Even more importantly for DJ, he tested very well athletically and aced all of the on-field drills as well. His 4.42 40-yard dash was among the fastest WR times there, and he showed some explosion with a 39.5” vertical and an 11’ broad jump. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. called him the most impressive WR in Indy. He should have at least cemented himself as a top-3 WR in this class.
Auden Tate, Florida State – Stock Down: Tate is a big, physical WR with strong hands, but his athleticism at the Combine was a disappointment. Scouts were disappointed when fellow Seminole Kelvin Benjamin ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at the Combine a few years ago, and Tate was even slower than that, registering a 4.68. He also had a less than impressive 9’4” broad jump. He’ll still be a red zone weapon at the NFL level and will likely be drafted in your rookie drafts as a top-10 WR option, but his lack of athleticism certainly hurts what his pro ceiling may look like.
DJ Chark, LSU – Stock Up: Chark put on a show in Indianapolis, posting the best 40 time among the WRs (4.34), and also tallying a 40” vertical and 10’9” in the broad jump. Chark was a popular sleeper pick among some in the fantasy community, but he won’t be as much of a secret anymore. He may get a benefit out of coming from LSU, a school that has a reputation for their receivers ascending when they get to the NFL. The list of LSU receivers since the start of the Les Miles era to post more receiving yards in a season as a pro than they did in any college season includes Dwayne Bowe, Brandon LaFell, Rueben Randle, and Odell Beckham Jr. That list doesn’t even include Jarvis Landry, who has put up 400 receptions in his first 4 seasons in the NFL. Although Les Miles is gone from LSU, Chark’s career there started with him still there. Chark could be a top-5 WR in this class.
Calvin Ridley, Alabama – Stock Down: Ridley has been expected to be the first wide receiver taken in the NFL Draft pretty much since the Super Bowl ended, but that may be changing as the offseason process goes on. He tested very poorly in Indianapolis, He came in a little lighter than expected at 189 pounds, and while his 4.43 40-yard dash was strong, he tested so poorly in the jumping and agility drills that his SPARQ score puts him in just the 7th percentile of athletes, worse than any other WR at the Combine. His status as the WR1 in this class is in serious doubt based on what he did in Indy.
Deon Cain, Clemson – Stock Up: Cain has been a little bit of a polarizing prospect in some scouting circles. A lot of people look at Cain as just the next in the line of Clemson WRs to go to the NFL, following Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Williams (well, the jury’s still out on Williams). It’s not hard to see why. When a program has a track record like Clemson does, you see the size, production, and athleticism and it’s easy to project Cain as the next in line, but some scouts that have started breaking down Cain’s film are finding more holes in his game than those that preceded him. It’s because of those doubters that Cain actually helped himself in Indy. He didn’t blow the doors off the athletic testing (was just a 34th percentile SPARQ athlete despite a 4.43 40-yard dash), but he looked more polished as a receiver in the drills than a lot of scouts had been seeing on film. He drew praise from former star wide receiver Steve Smith, who spoke highly of the way he caught the ball and how smooth he looked in and out of breaks in the Combine drills. I think he helped himself enough that he should be a top-10 WR in this class.
Tavares Martin, Washington State – Stock Down: Martin was already looking like a 3rd-day pick due to off-field issues, but his Combine numbers confirmed that he’ll be an undrafted free agent. He was expected to push for a sub-4.5 40-yard dash but instead clocked in at a terrible 4.80. He also registered a less than impressive 31.5” vertical jump. Martin was supposed to be a troubled player with upside due to his athleticism. If he doesn’t have that athleticism, there isn’t really a place for him in the NFL.
Tight Ends:
Mike Gesicki, Penn State – Stock Up: While Saquon Barkley stole the show in Indy, his college teammate Gesicki may have been more impressive. Gesicki measured in at an imposing 6’5” and 247 pounds, and he performed historically well in the athletic testing, finishing in the 99th percentile in SPARQ scores. Only Vernon Davis and Dustin Keller have ever tested better at the Combine at the tight end position. South Dakota State’s Dallas Goedert had been getting some traction as the top fantasy tight end in this class, but as Goedert sat out most of the Combine with a hamstring injury, Gesicki took advantage. The Penn State product has already shown that he can be a red zone threat and can make tough catches, but his testing numbers will push him into the conversation for the TE1 in this class.
Troy Fumagalli, Wisconsin – Stock Down: Fumagalli wasn’t considered to be on the same level as Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst as a prospect before the Combine, but a strong showing could have really helped his stock. Instead, he posted the fewest bench reps for a tight end (14) and didn’t participate in any other drills. He’ll have a chance to improve how he’s viewed at Wisconsin’s pro day, but he’s got a tough act to follow after many of the top tight ends impressed in Indy. Fumagalli is at best the TE5 of this class right now.
Jaylen Samuels, NC State – Stock Up: Samuels is listed here because he tested with the tight ends in Indianapolis, but his best case scenario is that he will land with a creative coach and be used as a Swiss army knife, splitting time between TE, RB, WR, and H-Back. He’s undersized to play tight end, standing just 5’11”, but he performed well in the athletic testing. He matched Mike Gesicki’s 4.54 40-yard dash and managed to throw up 18 bench reps and a 10’1” broad jump. Samuels looks like he can be an x-factor kind of player in today’s NFL if he lands in the right spot. He could be a sneaky 2nd or 3rd round pick in rookie drafts if the landing spot is a good one.
That's all I've got for now. I'll be back after free agency is a little more settled to talk about ideal landing spots for some of the top rookies ahead of the draft. Things can still change for some of these rookies between now and draft day, but it doesn't hurt to take stock of where they are now. If you have any thoughts or feedback on the info above, don't be a stranger. Reach out on Twitter to let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Otherwise, sit back and enjoy one of the wildest NFL offseasons we’ve seen in years.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Every year, fantasy championships are won or lost by the teams that managed to hit on a break out player or...those that passed over that player. One of the more predictable paths to break out players is when a WR enters his third year. Players that reach this point have at least shown flashes of being good, otherwise they would have been cut already.
A couple of guys will be exempt from our class this year, notably Michael Thomas (NO) and Tyreek Hill (KC), both of whom finished in the top 8 fantasy WRs in 2017. They've already been breaking things - mainly records. Thomas is certain to be a stud again next year, going over 1100 yards receiving in each of his two seasons. Hill's situation may seem a little uncertain with new QB Patrick Mahomes, but the fact that Tyreek Hill is one of the most exciting players to watch since Devin Hester will not change.
So that leaves us with 12 guys that were all drafted ahead Tyreek Hill (165th overall). We'll look at their breakout potential based on past performance and their team's current situation. Some of these guys have already shown some really good things, and some of them are valuable picks that aren't working out. This is part 1, where we'll look at the first 4 guys on the list, all first rounders. Next time, we'll take a look at more third year WRs, as well as some breakouts in the past and why those worked.
Corey Coleman (CLE) - Coleman was the first WR taken in the 2016 draft - he was 15th overall. His biggest problem in his first two years, apart from being on the Browns, is that he was unable to stay on the field. He's played in just 19 games during his first two seasons. He's also, and this can't be stressed enough, on the Cleveland Browns.
The Browns are certainly expected to be a team with a good amount of turmoil, following a 0-16 season. Since coach Hue Jackson is sticking around, he's likely to stick with his very first draft pick for at least another year. This should guarantee Coleman an opportunity to produce on the team, if only for Hue Jackson to show that he can at least get one thing right.
The sample size that Coleman does have is big enough to show us some encouraging stats. First of all, he's being targeted 7 times per game, never going below 4 in any single week. He's firmly the #2 WR on the team behind Josh Gordon, so this means that he's unlikely to draw the toughest coverages. I don't see his targets average changing much to start off 2018.
Going in to 2018, the biggest worry for Coleman will be what the offense is going to look like around him. New OC Todd Haley should breathe some life into a team that only put up 20+ points four times last season. The most important role is going to be quarterback for the Browns. Improved QB play will do a lot to up Coleman's catch percentage, which is just 42.7% for his career.
So can Coleman break out in 2018? I say that yes, he can, but there's a couple things that need to happen along the way. First and foremost, he needs a good QB. I have no idea how this will happen, but if they sign a decent free agent (ahem, Kirk Cousins), then this could be a huge upgrade. This could make Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman a combination that puts up 1000 yards each. It’s more likely that they will draft a top QB, so that will take more time to develop.
Second, he needs to stay healthy, especially early in the season. Coleman has basically missed the first couple months each of the last two years, which is a terrible way to start a career. If he plays 16 games, he has the opportunity to develop a good rapport with the new starting QB. I really hope there's a new starting QB.
So hey, it's the offseason, we can dream a little bit. If the Browns do wind up signing Terrelle Pryor, I wouldn't worry too much. Pryor would be more of an insurance signing than someone who would start immediately. I give Coleman a 60% chance to break out as a WR 2 if they sign a good QB. If not, he's probably more like 30% - in short, he (and the Browns) need help to get there.
Will Fuller (HOU) - The 21st overall pick, Fuller looks like he has a great chance at big fantasy numbers in 2018. With Deshaun Watson at QB, Fuller is definitely in the best situation of any third year WR going in to next season. The Texans are a team on the rise, mostly because their offense looks to be explosive with Watson at the helm.
Fuller also benefits from the presence of DeAndre Hopkins, last year’s #1 fantasy WR. Hopkins will demand tons of attention from opposing defenses, and should draw a lot of top coverage and even double teams. This will allow Fuller to exploit his matchups in an attempt to match his blistering touchdown pace from last year.
How great was his touchdown pace? Well, in 2017, Fuller found the end zone one out of every four touches he had. On the season, he had 7 TDs on just 28 receptions. Unfortunately, he had only an average of 5 targets per game, but with a 56% catch percentage, he is able to still be productive. Having 15 yards per catch helps a lot too. This kind of production probably means that Fuller will not slip in under the radar in 2018 drafts.
Due to his higher profile, compared to the rest of the guys on this list, he will definitely not be a sneaky pick you can get later in the draft. If you want Fuller on your team, it’s going to cost you a mid-round pick, if not higher. My suggestion for guys like this is generally to wait and let others overspend on him, but to take him if the value is right.
So, can Will Fuller break out as a bigtime receiver in 2018? I say that the chances are high that he has a successful season, provided he can stay healthy. He’s missed 8 games over his first two seasons, so he’s more reliable than Corey Coleman. That being said, he has to play more than 75% of the time to reach the WR2 territory that we’re hoping for.
I give Fuller an 80% chance to break out this season. This mostly depends on Watson being his QB and performing somewhere near the insane level that he had last year (18 passing TDs in just 6 starts, are you kidding me?). So keep an eye on him during the offseason to see how well he’s working with Watson. There will likely be a lot of hype surrounding the Texans offense going in to next year, so that may artificially inflate the ADP of everyone involved, especially Fuller – since Hopkins and Watson are already at the top of their respective positions.
Josh Doctson (WAS) - Doctson was the 22nd overall pick in 2016 and the Redskins first round selection for that year. His rookie year was a dud, appearing in just 2 games and racking up 2 receptions. Going in to last season, he seemed like one of the hot sleeper picks. Unfortunately his hype was just talk and he really couldn't get anything going until later in the season.
Injuries have been a concern for Doctson, and an obvious theme in this list. Through two seasons, he's appeared in only 18 games, after a mysterious Achilles injury early in the 2016 season kept him mostly grounded for an entire year. The encouraging stat to take away here is that he did appear in all 16 games in 2017 and ended the season healthy.
The 2018 season looks to be set up for an overall upgrade for Doctson. His new QB, Alex Smith, was one of the best in the league last year, though he's unlikely to repeat those gaudy numbers. Regardless, Smith is a guy who has learned how to make the most of a speedy guy on the outside, and Doctson will be the #1 outside target on the 'Skins with Pryor likely to depart.
Doctson has a few stats in 2017 that make his outlook quite positive for the upcoming season. Once he was back into full rotation with the offense, he was targeted consistently - averaging 6.8 targets per game from week 9 to the end of the season. He also found the end zone 6 times. With a long score of 52 yards, and a short of just 1, it's clear that he's a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
Still, there's room for improvement with Doctson. Obviously, he needs to develop a rapport with his new QB, but he also needs to up his catch %. 44% is just not going to cut it when your QB is a check-down king. He's also only had one game over 61 yards in his career, and that one was just 81 yards. He's going to be a key member of a potent passing game, so he's due to break the century mark - or maybe he's just lucky that he scored 6 times last year.
I give Doctson a 60% chance to break out as a WR3 this year. His low yardage totals have me worried, although his 15.4 career yards per reception could be the key indicator that he's going to put up good numbers if he catches more balls. I would put his chances at becoming a WR2 at more like 35%. Doctson has a lot of tools to be a good player in the NFL. I don't know if I've seen indications that he can be great...yet.
Laquon Treadwell (MIN) - 2016's 23rd overall pick is firmly in the bust category through two seasons on the Minnesota Vikings. Treadwell was the 3rd WR taken in a row - clearly a run, and anyone who's played fantasy football for a while knows that it really sucks being at the end of a run at any position. Perhaps the writing was on the wall for Treadwell all along.
Amazingly, he's been healthy enough to have appeared (or at least been on the active roster) for 25 games - that's more than any other WRs that were drafted in the first round. Treadwell just can't find his way on to the field for enough snaps to ever make a difference. Injuries to other players haven't allowed him to just jump up the depth chart, and he was never really able to earn his way into getting targets. He has just 38 targets on his career, a measly 1.5 per game.
The emergence of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have basically ended it for Treadwell in Minnesota. They're likely to part ways with him either through trade or just cutting him. If he gets cut, he'll probably stick with the team through late August, until final cut-downs, but don't get your hopes up.
I give Treadwell a 5% chance of being fantasy relevant in 2018, and this is contingent on him finding a new team and getting a prominent role. He's had many chances to prove himself and just can't do it. This one's a no-brainer. You're not drafting Treadwell, and because of that, thankfully, I don't have to dive into the messy QB situation in Minnesota.
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- Written by David Biggs
It's hard to break out as a star in the NFL at any time, much harder as a rookie, and there's a whole extra degree of difficulty added when you're on a team in chaos like the Washington Redskins in 2017. Management upheaval, refusal to commit long-term to your quarterback (Kirk Cousins), and a lack of proven depth at important skilled positions (wide receiver, running back) made sure that the Redskins would have a losing record last season. Samaje Perine was drafted by the Skins in 2017, and enjoyed much success in College at Oklahoma - going down in history as the school's all-time leading rusher with 4,122 yards and in the process beating out the inimitable Adrian Peterson's former record (4,045). It makes sense, then, that Perine would be able to quickly take over the job in Washington and run with it.
Read comments from Rich Tandler, Redskins Blogger and NBC Sports Washington correspondent: Need to Know: Five Redskins who must step up in 2018
He did, in fact, get handed the reins early on in the season when Rob Kelley went out in Week 2 with a rib injury, but poor average YPC (yards per carry) in subsequent games along with the return of incumbent starter Kelley, forced the coaches to rethink their depth chart. Perine's big break in 2017 occurred after Kelley suffered a high-ankle sprain and sprained MCL in Week 10 and then Chris Thompson broke his leg in Week 11. With both of the usual suspects sidelined, Perine was able to carve out a few successful games even behind an injured offensive line and was also a small presence in the passing game throughout.
The Redskins have since traded for QB Alex Smith and signed him to a four-year, $94M extension, they will have $36 Million in salary cap space to sign some help at wide receiver, and the offensive line should start off the new season healthy. No one expects that the Skins will be a competitor to win their division (the Eagles & Cowboys won't be backing down anytime soon), but they can be much improved from their 7-9 record in 2017 and Perine could be a solid RB2 going forward (think a stronger, but slower Michael Turner for comparison).
Chris Thompson is an exciting RB on the Redskins and should continue to be, but he is not the goal-line back there and can not physically hold up to a large workload. Although Perine's YPC over the season was not an impressive number, much of that was due to a weak, injury-ridden offensive line that should be improved in the upcoming season and his average YPC was still better than Rob Kelley's. Finally, there was a serious lack of consistent downfield threats on the offense until Crowder and Doctson started to come on more in the second half of the season. Getting rid of Terrelle Pryor and trying to sign a talented wide receiver in free agency (Paul Richardson, Sammy Watkins, Donte Moncrief, to name a few) should open up some holes for Perine to capitalize on and increase the number of goal-line opportunities that this offense has each week.
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- Written by David Biggs
The rumor mill kicks into high gear in the NFL off-season, and one of the biggest items on the agenda this year was whether or not Blake Bortles would remain the starting quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Bortles has only played 4 full seasons in the NFL and enjoyed a very successful 2015 (4,428 yards, 35/18 TD/INT ratio), but his productivity dropped in 2016 and his role as a game manager in 2017 didn't (for the most part) allow for many big offensive opportunities to be channeled through the QB position.
Jaguars are giving QB Blake Bortles a new three-year, $54 million deal, worth up to $66.5M with incentives, that includes $26.5M guaranteed, tying him to Jacksonville through the 2020 season, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 25, 2018
Jacksonville out of QB market.
What we know: The Jaguars have extended Blake Bortles for a 3-year $54M contract and may look to draft some more developmental talent at the position this year (and who wouldn't, with their current backup being an underwhelming Chad Henne?), but Bortles will be the clear-cut starter.
With Allen Robinson likely being re-signed to a new long-term contract (or franchise tagged if the two camps can't reach a deal by March 6th), and building on the pieces that have already worked well (defense/secondary, Leonard Fournette), Bortles has been given one more chance to prove that he deserves to be under center in Jacksonville and could be their franchise quarterback.
Looking forward: Bortles underwent surgery on his right (throwing hand) wrist back in January, hoping to fix an issue that had been affecting him for the whole 2017 season. While true that there were plenty of games in which Bortles was simply managing the team into victories, it's also clear that toward the end of the season the team needed to lean on the passing game more, and he showed up when needed - putting up 9 passing TDs over the all-important weeks 13-16.
He also had an impressive divisional playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a shootout, continuing to stay one step ahead of Roethlisberger and the Steelers' offense throughout the game. The Jaguars made it to the playoffs last season for the first time since 2007 and the combination of a healthy Bortles & Robinson in addition to their existing pieces should lead them right back into the thick of it.
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- Written by David Biggs
Yes, the regular fantasy season has come to a conclusion for 2017 - but we're certainly not resting on our laurels with all of the exciting playoff football still ahead of us! Although postseason fantasy leagues can be set up in a variety of ways, my personal favorite is going with a single draft that accumulates points throughout the playoffs. In this case, the optimal strategy is to determine which teams you think will play the most games and draft accordingly.
I've had success in the past picking no more than 4 teams and trying to only collect players from those squads. Looking at the available teams this year, I would shy away from the Chiefs and Titans (since the winner will end up against the Patriots), and I don't think that the Bills, Falcons, Panthers, or Eagles will win their first games. That leaves us with the below teams:
AFC
New England (1)
Pittsburgh (2)
Jacksonville (3) Wild Card
NFC
Minnesota (2)
Los Angeles (3) Wild Card
New Orleans (4) Wild Card
So my suggestion is to choose 3 or 4 of these teams that you think have the best chance of making it to the Super Bowl (or, at the very least, of playing multiple games in the playoffs) and try to draft players from those teams exclusively. Stacking up players from a team that makes it to the Super Bowl is usually your ticket to some postseason fantasy winnings. It's possible that all of the wild card teams could lose in the 2nd round, but keep in mind that if you do end up picking players from a wild card team (New Orleans, for example), they will have the advantage of playing an additional game over the higher ranked teams with a bye in the first round.
You may rank the top playoff teams differently, but I would urge you to adopt a similar philosophy to the above in how to build your postseason fantasy team - you have to take a chance in order to land on top! Best of luck and we'll see you all next year for more fantasy insights, strategies, rankings, and podcasts.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at week 17. For most of us, this means the fantasy season is over, and for good reason. Week 17 is typically a fantasy bloodbath. So many teams have so little to play for this week that it’s hard to predict which teams will treat it like a normal week and which won’t. To have a fantasy championship be decided in week 17 is just cruel; and yet, some leagues do it. This year, there are exactly 11 teams that can have their playoff positioning altered in week 17, and at least one of those (the Rams) has already decided to sit many of their starters.
With that in mind, this week’s breakdown will be a little different than usual. I’ll still break the players down by guys you should start, borderline guys, guys you should sit, and some sleepers, but these lists will look a little different than usual. You’re going to see some guys in the ‘Borderline’ and ‘Rookies to Sit’ sections that you aren’t used to. The Sleeper section will also be entirely made up of guys worth a dart throw this week in DFS lineups. There aren’t a ton of them though. Let’s dive in and see who has something to play for in the season’s final week…
Rookies to Start:
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 17: @TB): Trusting Kamara this week is an easy decision. The Saints need to win this game to lock up the division title, and AK-41 totaled over 150 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting with Tampa. He’s scored over 15 PPR points in every game he’s been healthy for since week 7, and the matchup here is a good one. Only two teams have allowed more running back touchdowns than the Bucs this season. Kamara should be a cash game staple this week and should be in every season-long lineup still going.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 17: @Atl.): McCaffrey’s receiving production took a bit of a hit last week with just 2 catches for 19 yards, but I like his chances of bouncing back this week in what should be a pretty good game. Atlanta needs to win to secure a playoff spot, and Carolina needs to win to have a shot at the division title. The Falcons have allowed the 14th-fewest RB fantasy points per game, but they’ve also allowed 101 running back receptions on the year, 7 more than any other team in the league. With the WR group ailing (Funchess shoulder issue, Damiere Byrd back on IR), I expect the Panthers to lean on CMC in the passing game a bit more than usual. He’s an excellent play in PPR formats and should be a great DFS option as well this week.
RB Jamaal Williams, GB (Wk. 17: @Det.): It appears that Williams will be the workhorse back in this game for Green Bay, and the matchups don’t get much better than this. The Lions have been bleeding points to RBs over the past couple months, giving up 29.3 PPR points per game to the position in the 10 games since they lost Haloti Ngata for the year. They’ve given up 112 rushing yards (4.53 ypc) and 1.2 rushing scores per game in that stretch. The only concern for Williams here is that he might be dealing with a negative game script with Detroit a 7-point favorite. As long as Aaron Jones sits, I’d expect him to see enough receiving work that it shouldn’t be a problem. Williams should be a strong option in most formats this week.
RB Samaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 17: @NYG): The efficiency for Perine has been miserable, but the usage has been there and should be again this week. The Giants have allowed the 9th-most running back points per game and rank 24th in run defense DVOA. Samaje got the start last week despite battling a groin injury, and he handled 20 touches on just 34 offensive snaps. He did suffer an Achilles injury (which is why he only played 34 snaps), but he’s practicing in full for week 17 and should see his touches go up as long as he doesn’t get hurt again. There isn’t a ton of ceiling with Perine, but the matchup and volume should make him a very likely top-20 option at RB.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Was.): The Giants’ season has been over for a long time, but they insist on trying to win more football games. They’ll be a little short-handed with Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard sidelined in week 17, so they are likely to lean on Wayne Gallman in the passing game once again. Gallman has averaged 16.3 touches and 80 scrimmage yards per game in the past 3 weeks, and more importantly for PPR formats, he’s averaged 8 targets and 6.7 catches per game in that stretch. Washington has done a pretty good job of limiting RB receiving production, but I wouldn’t be too concerned about it given what a big role Gallman should play in the passing game this week. Washington has also been getting gashed in the run game, giving up 130 yards per game and 6 rushing scores in the past 7 weeks. I’d view Gallman as a decent RB2 option in PPR formats and a great DFS option at just $4,200 on DraftKings.
RB Matt Breida, SF (Wk. 17: @LAR): Breida nearly matched Carlos Hyde last week in fantasy points despite playing about half as many snaps and handling half as many touches. I’d expect him to see at least a slightly bigger share of the work this week, and the Rams have allowed the 5th-most RB points per game this season. If he sees any bump in volume, he’ll find himself likely pushing for a top-25 RB performance this week.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): I would be all in on JuJu if the Steelers had any interest in treating this like a game they should try to win. Instead, it sounds like it will be Landry Jones under center and Stevan Ridley as the team’s lead back. I’d still expect JuJu to play much of the game with Antonio Brown sidelined again, but there is still a risk that he’s pulled early. If Big Ben does end up getting the start, JJSS is a no-brainer start, but if not, he falls more into WR3 territory. It is a pretty enticing matchup though, with the Browns ranking 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.
WRs Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook, JAX (Wk. 17: @Ten.): Allen Hurns is expected back this week, but Marqise Lee isn’t, and with the way these two are playing, I’d be shocked if Hurns plays a huge number of snaps. The Jaguars are in an interesting spot with head coach Doug Marrone saying they will treat this as a normal game, but their seeding is already decided. It wouldn’t be a shock if we see some Chad Henne in this one, which would likely lower the ceiling for each guy a bit. The matchup is a pretty good one, with the Titans allowing the 7th-most WR points per game, but if either guy plays limited snaps or spends a lot of time with Henne under center, they will likely find themselves as borderline WR3 options.
WR Corey Davis, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): Davis finally got on track in week 16, posting his best fantasy game of the season. He caught 6 passes on 9 targets for 91 yards. This week he gets to face off with one of the toughest WR defenses in the league, but as I mentioned above, the Jaguars don’t have anything to gain by winning this one. I’d expect some of their key defenders to play limited snaps, and the Titans will still be playing for a possible playoff berth. Even through his struggles, Davis hasn’t seen fewer than 4 targets in any game since recovering from his hamstring injury 2 months ago, and he’s seen 7+ targets in 4 of the 9 games he’s played. I think 5-60 would be a reasonable expectation this week for Corey, and maybe he finds his first career TD.
WR Mack Hollins, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): The Eagles aren’t expected to play their starters for too long in the finale, and Hollins should see plenty of run in this game. The Cowboys’ pass defense is nothing to write home about, and Hollins has managed to produce whenever the ball comes his way. For the season he’s caught more than 76% of the targets to come his way and has averaged 15.5 yards per catch. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t see at least 5+ targets.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 17: @LAR): Garrett Celek played limited snaps in week 16 and wasn’t targeted once while Kittle managed to score his second TD of the season. Celek isn’t listed on the injury report this week, so there’s a chance he goes back to his regular role as the lead tight end, but I think Kittle will still lead the team in snaps there. Jimmy Garoppolo has made the 49ers TEs fantasy relevant, and this week Kittle gets to face a defense that has given up 4 tight end TDs in the last 3 games and is also resting a number of their starters.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): If the Vikings officially had the number 2 seed wrapped up, I’d like Trubisky as a sleeper with the Vikes likely to sit most of their important starters. Unfortunately for Chicago, there is still a scenario where the Vikings could lose the first round bye. It is a really specific scenario: the Saints would have to lose to Tampa Bay, the Panthers would have to beat the Falcons, and the Vikings would have to lose. I think it’s really unlikely that New Orleans will lose to Tampa with the division title at stake, but I don’t expect Minnesota to chance it, especially since they play in the early slate while the other two games are both in the late afternoon. If Minnesota plays to win, their suffocating defense should shut down the Bears’ offense without much trouble.
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Kizer has totaled 7.4 fantasy points in the last 2 games combined, and the Steelers can still potentially win homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and should be at least a little motivated to win. No thank you.
QB Davis Webb, NYG (Wk. 17: vs. Was.): Webb will be active in the season finale, but it appears it will be Eli Manning who gets the start. Interim head coach Steve Spagnuolo has already said that the plan is for Eli to play every snap, and I believe him. Webb might not play at all, which is kind of ridiculous given that the Giants ended Eli’s start streak to get Geno Smith 1 start.
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 17: @Den.): The Chiefs have absolutely nothing to gain by running their workhorse out there for a big snap number. They’re locked into the 4-seed already, so if Hunt is active at all, I’d only expect him to play a few series to make sure he doesn’t build up any rust before the wild card weekend. He shouldn’t be in fantasy lineups.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 17: @Ten.): Just as Kansas City is locked into the 4th seed, Jacksonville has the 3-seed wrapped up and has nothing to gain with a victory. Like Hunt, if Fournette plays at all it will just be a few series early on. There’s no way you can rely on him this week despite claims from Doug Marrone that the Jaguars will treat this like any other game.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Mixon is practicing as of Thursday, but there’s still no guarantee that he’ll suit up this weekend for the finale. He’s left each of the last two games he’s played with injury early on, and Gio Bernard has played well. If the Bengals are going to go all-out in an effort to play spoiler to Baltimore, I’d expect a pretty even split of work between Mixon and Gio if both are active. The Ravens aren’t exactly a defense to fear (they’ve allowed the 13th-most RB points per game), but the Bengals’ offense remains mediocre at best and a split in volume would make both guys tough to trust.
RBs Aaron Jones & Devante Mays, GB (Wk. 17: @Det.): Jones looks like a longshot to even play this week, and we haven’t seen anything from Mays yet this season. Mays has totaled negative-1 yards on 3 carries and lost a fumble this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Devante’s out-touched by FB Aaron Ripkowski in this one. If you’re looking for a guy to play from the GB backfield against the Lions’ awful run defense this week, the choice is Jamaal Williams.
RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 17: vs. Dal.): I was thinking that Clement might be a strong option for this week with the Eagles having nothing to play for and resting Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount, but there’s a strong possibility they rest Clement as well. It’s looking likely that it will be mostly Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner handling the running back snaps for Philadelphia this Sunday. They may mix in their main RBs early on, but there won’t be enough work for any of those backs to be trusted this week. The best DFS play of the group is probably Smallwood. I’m not sure that they will have 5 running backs active, so if one of Smallwood or Barner is inactive, the other is the best DFS play.
RB Tion Green, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): The Lions have a pretty good matchup this week with the Packers, who have allowed the 7th-most RB points per game this season (and at least 27 PPR points to RBs in 5 of their past 6), but Green will continue to play second fiddle to Riddick and the matchup actually seems to suit him better. While the Packers have given up 160.5 points to running backs in the past 6 contests, just 43% of those points have been put up on the ground. The rest have been receiving points. Tion Green has not caught a pass all year. While you may be tempted to trot him out this week after his 10-point showing in Cincy, I think he’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate it.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): No team allows fewer running back points per game than the Vikings, and as mentioned above with Trubisky, Minnesota still needs to take care of business here and should be playing their starters. Cohen is usually a boom-or-bust flex option anyway. So facing the toughest RB defense in the league makes using him a bad idea. Only 2 teams have allowed fewer RB receiving yards than the Vikings.
RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): With the season already long over for the Colts, Mack still hasn’t seen much of a bump in playing time. He played just 15 offensive snaps in last week’s loss to Baltimore, and there isn’t much guarantee he plays more this week. There are better options out there than Mack in his limited role.
RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): The Chargers are still fighting for a playoff spot, but that’s actually a bad thing for Ekeler this week. Melvin Gordon is fighting through an ankle sprain, but I would expect him to suit up in this game with the season on the line. Ekeler has been dealing with a hand injury of his own, and was limited to just special teams last week. He’s got his hand in a cast and will be unable to catch passes out of the backfield. Because of this, Branden Oliver would get the start if Melvin Gordon is unable to play. I’d avoid Ekeler even in that scenario.
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 17: @NE): It would be nice if the Jets were able to give McGuire some extended run in the regular season finale, but they could have done that at any point in the last several weeks and haven’t. He has just 19 touches in the past 5 weeks, and expecting any more out of him this week would likely be a mistake.
WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 17: vs. NO): Godwin posted another strong performance last week in a starting opportunity as DeSean Jackson sat with an ankle injury, but Godwin sustained an ankle injury of his own in that game. He’s not practicing as of Thursday, so there is a real chance he sits this week. DeSean Jackson, on the other hand, is practicing and looks like he’ll be able to play. Even if he suits up, Godwin likely won’t play nearly as many snaps as he did last week and may even lose some work to Adam Humphries if the Bucs don’t want to overdo it with Godwin.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 17: @Mia.): There is a chance Zay gets more involved this week, but he shouldn’t be doing so from any of your lineups. He has zero catches in the last 3 weeks despite playing 70% or more of the offensive snaps in each of the last 2. The fact that he costs more than the minimum in DraftKings is a joke.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Oak.): As mentioned with Ekeler, the fact that the Chargers are still fighting for a playoff spot likely means the reserves aren’t going to see extended opportunities in week 17. Williams has seen just 6 targets in the past 5 weeks. There is no reason to fire him up against the Raiders.
TE Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI (Wk. 17: @Sea.): RSJ has faced two of the worst TE defenses in the league in the past 2 weeks and has just 2 catches for 11 yards to show for it. He played a season-high 54% of the offensive snaps in week 16 and didn’t record a catch. Clearly he doesn’t have the same connection with Drew Stanton that he does with Blaine Gabbert. There are better options is you’re looking for a sleeper tight end this week.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Njoku has done next to nothing since his breakout game against the Chargers in week 13, and there is no reason to expect that to change this week. The Steelers have allowed the 2nd fewest TE points per game in the league.
TE Adam Shaheen, CHI (Wk. 17: @Min.): The Vikings don’t have much to play for, but Shaheen has missed the last two games with a chest injury and appears iffy at best for this one. Minnesota has allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points per game, so even if Shaheen is able to play there isn’t really a good reason to try him in any format.
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): As long as Delanie Walker is playing, there’s no reason to trust Jonnu Smith in fantasy. He has just 4 catches for 38 yards total in the past 8 weeks, and the Titans are still alive for a playoff spot, so they have no reason to sit Delanie now.
Deep League Sleepers and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Patrick Mahomes, KC (Wk. 17: @Den.): The matchup isn’t a great one for Mahomes’ first NFL start, but the Broncos’ defense isn’t what it once was. Denver has allowed the 15th-fewest QB points for the year, and may be throwing in the towel on this season. They let Kirk Cousins throw for 299 yards and 3 scores last week. They’ve given up 12+ points to the opposing QB in 13 of the 15 games they’ve played this year, and 15+ in 9 of them. Mahomes makes for an interesting streamer in 2-QB leagues, and would be a fun play in a limited slate DFS tournament. He probably won’t be playing with a full complement of weapons, but he should be comfortable with the 2nd-stringers that he typically works with in practice.
RB Brian Hill, CIN (Wk. 17: @Bal.): I mentioned above that I could see an even split of the work between Gio Bernard and Joe Mixon out of the Bengals’ backfield this week if both guys are active, but if one or both sits out, Hill should see some extended run. The Bengals’ season has been over for a while now, so it might make sense to see what Hill can give them. Keep an eye on the updates throughout the week. Hill would be worth a dart throw in limited slate DFS tournaments if it looks like one of those two will be out.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 17: vs. GB): Fresh off an 8-target game, Golladay gets to square off with a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 8th-most WR points per game. The Packers have been more vulnerable to short throws, so Golden Tate is the best play in the Lions WR group this week, but Golladay costs just $3,300 on DraftKings and played 95% of the offensive snaps last Sunday. He’s got a chance to end his season on a high note this week.
WRs Trent Taylor & Kendrick Bourne, SF (Wk. 17: @LAR): The 49ers didn’t just go on a 4-game winning streak to take week 17 off. Look for them to go all-out in an effort to get to 6-10 and 5-0 in the Jimmy Garoppolo era. That means Taylor and Bourne will play their normal roles against a team that is sitting a lot of their key players. For Taylor that has meant 8+ PPR points in 3 of the last 4 games. Bourne hasn’t been quite as consistent, but he did put up a 4-85 line against Tennessee and has been targeted 11 times in the past 2 weeks. Both are worth considering as a dart throw in limited DFS slates. Marquise Goodwin remains the best option in this passing attack though.
WR Josh Reynolds, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. SF): The Rams have already ruled out Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp and Todd Gurley for their week 17 tilt with the 49ers. I’d be surprised if Sammy Watkins or Robert Woods play more than a couple series. That should give Reynolds plenty of playing time in a game where the 49ers are actually favored to win in Los Angeles. The Rams should be throwing it a decent amount. Sean Mannion isn’t the best QB out there, but Sean McVay’s offense has proven to be a pretty good one so far this season. Reynolds is nothing more than a dart throw in DFS tournaments, but he’s one that has already posted 2 6-target games in weeks where Watkins and Kupp were active. I’d expect him to lead the Rams in targets this week (if it isn’t backup RB Malcolm Brown).
WR Ryan Switzer, DAL (Wk. 17: @Phi.): The Cowboys don’t really have much to play for this week, and Cole Beasley is listed as questionable with an illness as of Friday. Switzer is the most likely option to take over in the slot, and in a game where Dez and Terrance Williams might get pulled before it’s over, Switzer might be the best bet on the team to play a full complement of snaps if Beasley sits. Beasley has drawn 13 targets in the last 3 weeks.
TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 17: vs. SF): The Rams will have to throw the ball somewhere, and Everett is one of the few guys who should get extended run this week that has some production under his belt already. I’d expect the leading weapons this week for LA will be Malcolm Brown, Josh Reynolds, Pharoh Cooper, Tavon Austin and Everett (maybe Tyler Higbee as well). Among those players listed, only Higbee and Everett have more than 100 receiving yards for the year. I’d expect the number 2 TE Everett to have a better connection with backup QB Sean Mannion. The 49ers have allowed 14-113-2 to tight ends in the last 2 weeks. This is as good a week as any to take a shot on Everett.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully I’ve helped you navigate some tough weeks this year with your rookies. If I did, make sure to come back next year when I start covering the 2018 rookie crop. As usual, if you do have to set a lineup this week or play any DFS lineups, keep an eye on the injury reports and weather reports throughout the week, and most importantly keep an eye on any updates about players who will be rested. 21 teams have nothing to gain with a win this week. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about any of the info above, feel free to hit me up on twitter to do so (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by David Biggs
Thanks for reading drinkfive.com this year! This week's installment of the rankings brings us to the end of the line. Week 17 is used in some fantasy leagues to determine the champion, so we're still here to help out in those circumstances. Good luck, all! Great plays this week include Blake Bortles, Giovani Bernard, Golden Tate, and George Kittle.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
It pains me to say it, but we have reached the end of another incredible football season!
While the playoffs are just around the corner, they just won’t feel the same … mainly because it is hard to find a playoffs confidence pool … and the Raiders are sitting home this year…again!
Hope you enjoyed reading my posts this season and my picks helped you make some difficult decisions! See you next year!!
Week 17 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – Congratulations 2008 Detroit Lions, you now have company.
15 – NEW ENGLAND over New York Jets – What d’ya know, the Patriots have the top seed in the AFC. Some things never change…why won’t THIS change??
14 – SEATTLE over Arizona – The Seahawks are still fighting for their playoff lives. They should easily be able to do their part…unfortunately they probably won’t get the help that they need.
13 – BALTIMORE over Cincinnati – Marvin Lewis ends his Bengal tenure as she spent most of it…losing.
12 – DETROIT over Chicago – Look at the difference in Carson Wentz and Jared Goff from their rookie season to this season…just hold on to that hope Bears fans.
11 – MINNESOTA over Green Bay – The Vikings are locked as the #2 seed and have nothing to play for. The Packers don’t have anything to play for either … and have non-Aaron Rodgers still at quarterback.
10 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Oakland – This…this could have been such a better season in Oakland. On to looking at mock drafts.
9 – New Orleans over TAMPA BAY – Playing in Tampa is never easy, especially for the NFC South. But the Saints have just looked too good not to lock up the division crown.
8 – TENNESSEE over Jacksonville – The Jags have locked themselves into the #3 seed. Can’t move up, can’t move down. That is the only reason that the Titans should be able to pull this one out.
7 – INDIANAPOLIS over Houston – The other AFC South game won’t be nearly as exciting. That’s pretty much all you need to know about this one.
6 – DENVER over Kansas City – Patrick Mahomes gets the nod at QB as the Chiefs are set as the #4 seed. That’s good news for the Broncos defense.
5 – Buffalo over MIAMI – I seriously forgot that the Dolphins were a thing.
4 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over San Francisco – The Rams winning the NFC West is proof that this division is open for the taking in the future. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE 49ERS WILL WIN THE NFC WEST NEXT SEASON.
3 – ATLANTA over Carolina – This is a “because they are the home team” win…but with good teams.
2 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington – Winning this game and potentially hurting their draft slot sounds like something the Giants would do.
1 – PHILADELPHIA over Dallas – Philly has clinched the top seed in the NFC and will probably be resting a lot of their players…the Cowboys will still find a way to lose.