Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Here’s hoping the first 6 weeks of the season have treated you better than they have Devonta Freeman, Marcus Mariota, and the entire Arizona Cardinals team. Week 6 saw a couple of promising rookies come back to earth a bit as Nyheim Hines, Calvin Ridley, and Keke Coutee all saw dips in production, and both receivers suffered injuries as well. Both are likely to play this week, but it’s a setback nonetheless. We’re getting closer to the part of the season where unexpected rookies start to take on bigger roles. We’re also getting into the serious bye weeks with some high-powered offenses taking week 7 off – Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Seattle. Are there rookies who can help you fill in? Is this the week we finally start to see something from Nick Chubb, Mike Gesicki, or Ronald Jones? Let’s dive into week 7 and discuss…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 7: @Atl.): Of course Barkley is an every-week starter at this point as the number 3 fantasy running back on the year (all ranks and point totals are in PPR scoring), but he should be worth his lofty price tag in DFS lineups this Sunday. The Falcons have allowed the most RB catches on the year, and the 2nd-most RB receiving yards. They also allow the 3rd-most fantasy points to the position. This is probably the best matchup Barkley will get all season.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 7: @Chi.): The matchup is a tough one for Michel this week. The Bears rank 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, and allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, but Sony and the Pats are on too much of a roll to hide from a tough matchup. Sony has averaged 105 rushing yards per game and found the end zone 4 times in the last 3 weeks. Even if he doesn’t match that kind of output this week, he should be a solid RB2 in week 7.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Arizona has been gouged by opposing backs, allowing the 2nd-most points to the position per game. Lindsay’s receiving floor makes him the safer and more attractive play between he and fellow rookie Royce Freeman. There is upside there for both guys this week, but I’d lean Lindsay if you have both. With the number of byes this week, you’d have a hard time convincing me Lindsay isn’t a top-20 RB play this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 7: @TB): The Bucs haven’t met a QB that they could hold under 330 passing yards yet, and only one that they’ve held below 3 passing scores. They’ve allowed more QB fantasy points per game than any other team and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Mayfield has been less efficient than I’d like and has turned the ball over a bunch, but this matchup gives him big upside. I dare you not to start him in a 2-QB league this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 7: @Mia.): This is about as good a matchup as Kerryon has had all year. I’d be listing him as a back to start if I had any faith that the Lions would commit to getting him the ball. The Dolphins allow the 5th-most RB points per game, and the Lions should be in a positive game script as a 3-point road favorite. Miami is vulnerable to receiving backs, so Theo Riddick could be in line for a nice flex-worthy game as well, but Kerryon should be right on the cusp of an RB2 this week assuming the touches are there.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 7: @Ari.): As I mentioned with Phillip Lindsay, the Cardinals are bad at defending running backs. The Cardinals have allowed 8 rushing scores on the year and have coughed up 140+ rushing yards to the position in 3 straight weeks. While I like Lindsay a little better this week due to his receiving floor, Freeman has enough upside to be a solid flex play this week.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): Kirk is quickly building a rapport with fellow rookie Josh Rosen, but he gets a reasonably tough matchup this week. There’s a low floor for everyone in this passing game, but Kirk has caught for 77+ yards in 3 of the last 4 weeks. That’s at least flex-worthy in a week with some top talent on byes.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 7: vs. NYG): Ridley’s game was cut short last week due to an injury. The TDs have dried up a little bit over the last couple games, but that upside that we’ve seen keeps him in the flex/WR3 discussion this week. Only Jacksonville allows fewer WR points per game than the Giants, but this game has the 2nd-highest over/under of the week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): Only 2 quarterbacks have thrown for multiple TDs against this Broncos’ defense on the year, and Denver ranks 8th in the league in pass defense DVOA. Rosen is averaging just 10.2 fantasy points per game through 3 starts. This isn’t a good week to count on that improving.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 7: @TB): You know the deal here. He just isn’t getting enough opportunity to be useful. He carried just 3 times last week.
RB Ronald Jones, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Jones is finally starting to see a little bit of playing time and gets a favorable matchup this week, but played just 12 snaps total and saw 4 touches last week. He’s not ready for primetime just yet.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 7: @Ari.): If Patrick Peterson would just follow Emmanuel Sanders into the slot, there might be some legit opportunity for Sutton this week. Instead, Peterson will likely be blanketing Demaryius Thomas while the Cards let Sanders have his way in the slot. Sutton remains just a DFS dart throw.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Coutee is working through a hamstring injury, which saps his biggest asset – his speed. Deshaun Watson is also a bit banged up and they face a Jaguars’ defense that allows the fewest points in the league to opposing WRs. I’d expect a performance closer to last week from Coutee (3-33) rather than the 17 catches he put up the 2 weeks before.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. NE): The Bears’ passing attack has broken out a bit over the past couple weeks, but Miller is yet to top 35 yards or 5 targets in a game. He’s no more than a DFS tournament punt play for the time being.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): Goedert gets a decent matchup this week, but as I’ve noted in this column in previous weeks, his role is nearly non-existent with Alshon Jeffery back. Two targets a week isn’t going to result in usable stat lines.
TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. NO): The tight end position is heavily utilized in the Ravens’ offense, but there are too many guys involved to trust any of them. Andrews seems to have the most receiving upside of the quartet, but he and Hurst each played 20 snaps or less last weekend. Until someone really separates himself, there isn’t much use for these guys.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Gesicki has seemingly been passed on the depth chart by Nick O’Leary. Yikes.
Rookies on Byes: RB Rashaad Penny, SEA, WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown, GB, WR James Washington, PIT
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): Darnold has actually been a top-15 QB in each of the past 2 weeks, and the Vikings have quietly been struggling to defend the pass. Minnesota ranks just 25th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 8th-most QB points per game. You could do worse than Darnold as a QB2 this week or as a cheap DFS tournament option at QB in a week with no Big Ben, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 7: vs. NYG): Devonta Freeman was placed on IR this week, and Ito actually out-touched Tevin Coleman last week. The Giants rank just 22nd in run defense DVOA, and Atlanta is a 5.5-point favorite this week. I like Ito as a flex play in deep leagues where you’re looking for a replacement option. He’s found the end zone in 3 straight. That streak will eventually end, but he’s got nice upside for week 7.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Hines’s snap count saw a pretty big dip with Marlon Mack back in the lineup last weekend, but he still played more snaps than the aforementioned Mack. The Bills have been solid at defending RBs, but they rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing backs. Hines is the best receiving RB on the team. He might see his production bounce back a bit this week in PPR leagues.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 7: @Phi.): Moore has now seen solid production in back-to-back weeks (minus the 2 fumbles last week). He’s posted 4-49 with an 18-yard run, and 4-59 with an 18-yard run in the past 2 contests. The Eagles allow the 7th-most WR points per game. Moore hasn’t been consistent enough this year to warrant more than a flex play in the deepest of leagues or in DFS tournaments, but if he continues to progress you’ll be using him in normal 12-team leagues before you know it.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 7: @TB): Callaway saw his snaps and targets return last week, but still without the production. He turned 72 offensive snaps and 10 targets into just 2 catches for 9 yards. If he’s ever going to get it going now is the time. The Bucs allow the 2nd-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. He’s no more than a cheap DFS tournament play, but this could be the week where he finally puts something together.
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Smith’s Monday night outburst before the team’s bye may have seemed like a one-time fluke, but it looks like Ted Ginn may be out again this week. He isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. Smith played about two-thirds of the offensive snaps with Ginn sidelined in week 5. If that repeats itself here, Tre’Quan is an intriguing DFS tournament play against a Ravens’ defense that has hardly been a shutdown unit against competent passing attacks.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher rookie lineup decisions this week. Keep an eye on the injury report this week. There are plenty of rookies dealing with their own injuries, and a few others who could be impacted by injuries to teammates like Tre’Quan and Ito Smith. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
3 Hot WR Pickups This Week
So far, week 6 has seen 4 WRs go over 20 points. We all watched Tyreek Hill go off for three scores on Sunday night, but there were three surprises Sunday afternoon that will be popular waiver pickups tomorrow. Albert Wilson, Tyrell Williams and Cole Beasley all put up at least 22 points while helping their teams to wins. All three players are currently owned in no more than 10% of Yahoo leagues. For Wilson, this is his third time in double digits on the season and is actually the WR16 so far this year. He was gaining more targets under Tannehill, and then had a season high of 9 with backup QB Brock Osweiler in on Sunday, so Wilson is definitely trending in the right direction. Williams and Beasley are a different story. Between them, their previous high was Beasley's 7.3 points in week 1. Williams seems to get 3-4 receptions per week, so he is a dart throw as a replacement. Beasley's usage is chaotic, and I still don't know what to make of the Cowboys offense. Hopefully you just have Tyreek Hill on your team and you're not so worried.
2 Games over 30 Points
Speaking of the best WR in fantasy football this year, Tyreek Hill now has two games north of the 30 point mark and he is now the #1 standard and #2 PPR scoring at his position. Hill as a wide receiver is what I imagine Devin Hester would have looked like, if he was any good at playing the position. Hill now has 27 TDs (both returning and receiving) in 37 games - 19 of those scores are 30 yards or longer. An exciting player, he is feast or famine for your fantasy team. Going into this week, he had turned in three straight performances of under 10 points. Despite this chaos (or maybe because he creates it), Hill is thriving and getting better as a WR. He's established himself as a red zone target for Patrick Mahomes, with a pair of 1-yard TDs on the season so far. He's also on pace for 90 receptions this year, 15 more than the career high he set last season. If Hill and Mahomes stay healthy, this is going to be a hell of a fantasy football combo for quite a while.
19.60 Fantasy Points
Hey, that's a pretty good performance from a running back. Should be good for top 10 any week, maybe top 5. The thing about that specific point total is that it represents the floor on the season for Todd Gurley. Gurley's season is so good that he's second only to Patrick Mahomes in total fantasy points. Gurley is averaging 25.8 points per week, more than 3 points per game higher than the RB2, Melvin Gordon. In fact, Gordon has 3 games where he didn't even reach Gurley's floor - and Gordon's floor is 14.40 points this year, also incredible! What I'm getting at is that great running backs seem to be in abundance in Los Angeles this year. Gurley is now leading the league with 11 TDs on the season - 9 rushing and 2 in the air. His 9 on the ground are just 4 behind his league leading 13 last season. He's scored at least 1 TD every game this season. This is just an incredible performance from the preseason #1 draft pick.
5 Consecutive 300+ Yard Games
Yeah, I've mentioned him several times already, but he deserves his own entry, doesn't he? Patrick Mahomes has now thrown for over 300 yards in his last 5 games. The game he didn't throw for that many, he just had 4 TDs. Mahomes is averaging 27 fantasy points per game and sports an 18:4 touchdown to interception ratio. Mahomes' streak of 5 games at 300+ yards is impressive, but he's got a long way to go to match Drew Brees' mark of 9 games, which he reached twice. Another impressive streak is Adam Thielen going for over 100 yards in 6 straight games to start the season. This is now just one game shy of matching the record for consecutive 100 yard games to start the season. He's just two games behind Calvin Johnson's all time mark of 8 straight games with 100 yards. Thielen is the WR2 on the season, and amazingly consistent as all his games are between 10.5 and 19 points.
27 Fantasy Points - From a Kicker!
Congrats to Jets kicker Jason Myers, for making 7/7 FGs and 3/3 XPs on his way to outscoring the Titans (0), Raiders (3), Jaguars (7) and Bills (13) combined! Two other kickers passed the 20 fantasy point mark on Sunday, Stephen Gostkowski and Cowboys kicker Brett Maher. Maher is leading all kickers with an average of 13 points per game over his last 4 games. The best part is that he's only owned in 6% of Yahoo leagues. There were some interesting D/ST performances as well. We saw the Bears finally stumble, and the Ravens score the cleanest 21 points I can think of. They had 11 sacks (ELEVEN!) and got 10 points for completing the shutout, something the Raiders had to take away from the Seahawks. At least the Raiders prevented the fine people of London from seeing yet another shutout.
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck!
Did you have another solid week? I sure did. That’s why you HAVE TO keep it here for solid wagering advice. I’m not the one who will you steer you down that dark alley of football futility… I’m the cop in the squad car with his ‘alley light’ shining bright on your perplexed face, telling you to, “Get in, I can provide a ‘safe place’ for your gambling dollars”. The only entities that will screw you out of your money are outdated, wagering advice books that were published before today’s NFL and the teams themselves who get upset by a weaker rival. Sure, I might suggest the occasional ‘bad pick’, but those usually are not my fault; “It’s a witch hunt”, as some politicians might say. So, keep hanging in there as teams are finding their identities and games should be easier to call. Also, as temperatures drop across the nation, defenses will pick up their game due to not, ‘over-heating’ in the cooler temps and them ‘gelling’ as defense units as a whole. So, with week 6 upon us, you can start to increase your confidence and amount of action as well as ticket amounts… if you feel comfortable. Again, it’s up to you, don’t spend all your weekly ‘vice’ money just on this vice. Something has to take the blues away when a kicker loses cash for the masses.
CHI(-195) -4 @ MIA(+174) +4 (U/O 41.5) – The Dolphins have a decent pass defense but have much to improve on against the run. Obviously, we know the Bears’ D is one of the best and their offense is a work in progress with a very positive showing before their bye last week. I’m still going to take the Bears definitely with the moneyline but am being a little more cautious with the spread. Not a fan of the O/U when a team is coming off a bye.
SEA(-147) -2.5 @ OAK(+132) +2.5 (O/U 48.5) – The Seahawks’ D has declined a bit, however I still believe they can beat the Raiders by at least a FG. Grab the moneyline and spread with confidence. I’d lean towards the Over.
CAR(-118) -1 @ WAS(+106) +1 (U/O 44) – The Panthers seemed a little flat after their bye, almost losing to the G-Men last week. However, I think they can easily slip past the Redskins with this favorable spread and moneyline, so definitely be keen on them both. Washington was able to put up some points against the Saints last Monday night, but that defense is kinda weak and the Redskins are on a short week, so I’m hesitant with the U/O. If I were to pick, I’d lean towards the Under.
LAC(-104) +1 @ CLE(-108) -1 (U/O 48.5) – I’m taking the Chargers all the way on this one. Browns have a ways yet to go before I bet in their favor. I like the Over.
PIT(+108) +1.5 @ CIN(-121) -1.5 (U/O 51) – The Steelers will pull this out by at least a field goal. The Bengals had issues with a bad Falcons’ defense. I’m comfy with the spread and moneyline as well the Over.
IND(+123) +2 @ NYJ(-137) -2 (U/O 46.5) – STAY AWAY! STAY AWAY! STAY AWAY! Nothing about this game I like. Too hard to predict. Indy is slowly on the rise and the Jets are too streaky.
TBB(+140) +3 @ ATL(-157) -3 (U/O 57.5) – I’m throwing down the duckets on Atlanta with both the spread and moneyline. I’m also taking the Over, in which I believe will be the highest scoring game of the week.
BUF(+347) +10 @ HOU(-408) -10 (U/O 40) – I’m not a fan of the spread and think the moneyline is also a bit high, unless you want to include it in a mid-to-large parlay. I am a fan of the Over in this contest.
ARI(+396) +10.5 @ MIN(-469) -10.5 (U/O 44) – Again, I’m fine with the moneyline here, when included in a parlay, but definitely don’t like the high spread until the Vikings can get Dalvin Cook and the running game going. Also stay away from the U/O.
LAR(-299) -7 @ DEN(+260) +7 (U/O 51.5) – Another one that you can add the Rams on a parlay, and if dropping the spread a half-point to -6.5, you can safely take ‘em both. I like the Over as I feel the Rams will put up at least 40.
JAX(-169) -3 @ DAL(+151) +3 (U/O 40) – I definitely dig the Jaguars with the spread and moneyline. If taking on a big parlay, maybe knock the spread down half a point. The U/O is UGLY! Don’t kiss her… I don’t care how beautiful she is on the inside.
BAL(-137) -2.5 @ TEN(+123) +2.5 (U/O 42) – I’d stay away from everything but the Over. This game already has left a bad taste in my mouth.
KCC(+170) +3.5 @ NEP(-191) -3.5 (O/U 60) – A game that should just be viewed and enjoyed. Too many variables and outcomes for these high octane offenses/ sub-par defenses. It’s going to come down to big plays, not one team dominating the other. The only option that makes sense is the Over… but 60 is when the old man starts turning bitter.
SF(+343) +10 @ GBP(-403) -10 (O/U 46.5) – I love the moneyline mixed in with a dominant parlay. I’m willing to grab the spread if lowered a half point to 9.5. The U/O is not a looker but I’d lean towards the Over.
NICK’S PICKS to CLICK for WEEK 6:
3 TEAM PARLAY (MIN ml) – (LAR -6.5) – (JAX -2.5)
3 TEAM PARLAY (BAL -2.5) – (GB -9.5) – (HOU ml)
2 TEAM PARLAY (ATL -3) – (CAR -1)
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re 5 weeks in to the season now, so you should have a pretty good idea what your team’s strengths and weaknesses are…but things aren’t always so clear with the rookie class at this point. There are almost certainly some rookies that have been non-factors so far that will make a difference before season’s end. Ronald Jones, Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny, James Washington, and Anthony Miller haven’t had much of an impact so far, but it doesn’t mean they won’t before season’s end. With that in mind, most of this week’s sleepers are guys that are likely better as stashes for later in the year than players you should be using this week. That doesn’t mean there aren’t any usable rookies this week. Quite the contrary. Let’s dive in and see what to expect in week 6…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): Barkley remains an every week starter, even in tougher matchups like this one. The Eagles have allowed the 3rd-fewest RB fantasy points per game (all scoring and ranks are in PPR format), but Barkley has tallied at least 16 touches and 100 scrimmage yards every week, and has found the end zone in 4 of 5 games.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 6: vs. KC): The Chiefs rank 32nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 2nd-most RB fantasy points per game, including over 140 rushing yards allowed in 2 of the past 3 games. Michel owns the early down work in New England with Burkhead on IR, and he’s safely a top-15 option this week.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. TB): There is some risk here after Ridley posted just 4-38 on 5 targets last week, but Tampa’s pass defense is miserable (ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA) and Ridley has scored more than half of Atlanta’s receiving TDs this season. If you don’t have 3 studs to start over him, you can’t keep Ridley’s upside benched this week.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 6 vs. LAR): Lindsay’s usage makes him the safer weekly play of he and Royce Freeman, and game script this week should certainly favor him with the Rams favored by 7 on the road in this one. Freeman has had very little impact as a receiver, and Lindsay’s use as a pass-catcher makes him a reasonable flex play in all formats this week.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 6: @NYJ): Hines remains a PPR flex option this week. He’s been averaging 7 catches a game in his past 3 contests, and his receiving floor should be safe even if Marlon Mack manages to return this week. His explosive speed makes him a constant threat to break a bit play, even if we haven’t seen that big play on the field yet.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): Will Fuller’s health has been a big factor in Coutee’s breakout over the past 2 weeks, but I like the chances that Coutee continues to impress even if Fuller is closer to full strength. The Bills have been very strong defending perimeter receivers, but they rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA on passes thrown to WRs that aren’t the #1 or 2 guy on their team. Tre’Davious White should be shadowing DeAndre Hopkins, and Coutee should be a great outlet for Deshaun Watson this week. He’s a little riskier this week than he’s been in the past 2, but I like him as a PPR flex play.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 6: vs. SF): There’s always value in being a starting WR playing with Aaron Rodgers. Randall Cobb is almost certain to sit again this week, and there’s no guarantee that Geronimo Allison returns either. That means Valdes-Scantling has a chance to be the team’s WR2 again this week. That’s a role that earned him a 97% snap share last weekend, and he’ll be a viable WR3 in all formats again this week if G-Mo is out again.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): This is a matchup that looks more inviting on paper than it really is. The Colts have given up the 5th-most passing yards per game, but they haven’t been beaten deep, and Darnold has thrived on the long ball. Of his 8 touchdown throws, 3 of them went for 40+ yards, and 4 of the other 5 went for 20+. The Colts are one of just 2 teams that have given up zero passes that went 40 yards. Indy can be thrown on, but this doesn’t project to be a ceiling game for Darnold. He’s no more than a low-end QB2 this week.
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 6: @Min.): The Vikings’ pass defense hasn’t lived up to their reputation in the first 5 weeks, allowing the 6th-most QB fantasy points per game and ranking 26th in pass defense DVOA, but Rosen failed to come through in a similarly inviting spot a week ago. The Vikings talent is better than the numbers would suggest, and Rosen could be in for a long day with Larry Fitzgerald ailing.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 6: @Hou.): There isn’t enough upside to roll the dice on Allen in DFS tournaments, and his floor is too low to feel great about using him in season-long leagues of any format. He remains a boom-or-bust QB2 if you’re desperate.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Freeman saw as little work as he has all year in week 5 after head coach Vance Joseph claimed they were going to get him more involved. The Rams haven’t been shutting down the run game, ranking just 28th in run defense DVOA, but game script could really work against Freeman here with LA a touchdown favorite. I’d be hesitant to play Freeman if I had other strong options. He’s a contrarian play in DFS tournaments. It’s within the range of outcomes that Denver leans on Freeman and the run game to keep the ball away from the Rams’ offense and has success, but it’s not the most likely outcome.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Sorry if you have Chubb shares, but like him you get to keep waiting for Hue Jackson to get a clue or for something to happen to Carlos Hyde. Chubb hasn’t seen more than 3 carries in any game, and the Chargers have allowed fewer than 55 rushing yards to opposing RBs in 3 of their 5 games. There’s no reason to bank on this being the week when Chubb sees increased opportunity.
RB Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 6: @NYJ): Marlon Mack is practicing in full this week, and if he plays it’s Wilkins who will lose the most work of the two Colts’ rookies. Wilkins’ role has already been shrinking and he’s yet to reach 10 fantasy points in any game this year.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): The Chargers are not great against wide receivers – they allow the 7th-most points per game to the position, but Callaway has been unable to get out of his own way. He’s struggled with drops and mental mistakes, and he’s seen his targets scaled back as Hue Jackson promised. He saw just 5 targets in week 5 after drawing 10+ in each of the previous 2 contests. I’m not sure you can bank on more than 5 targets this week, and Callaway has been inefficient with the targets he’s seen.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): The Rams have allowed 8 touchdowns to wide receivers in the past 3 weeks, but they’ve also allowed fewer than 10 catches to the position in 4 out of 5 games. Sutton is still 3rd banana in the Broncos’ passing game, and that makes him just a TD dart throw this week.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 6: @Mia.): There’s a decent chance that Miller returns from his shoulder injury this week, but he will likely be limited and Taylor Gabriel really emerged in his absence. The Dolphins allow just the 6th-fewest WR points per game, so even if Miller gets a decent snap share, the chances he produces are slim.
WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 6: @Dal.): Chark had his best game as a pro last weekend, but that’ll happen when your QB throws the ball 61 times in comeback mode. The Jaguars are a 3-point road favorite this week, so it’s unlikely that the game script repeats itself. Chark will likely go back to being a spectator this weekend.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Gallup has just 6 catches in 5 weeks, and faces a Jaguars’ defense that has lived up to its reputation – they’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest points per game to wide receivers on the year. This isn’t a tough call to sit Gallup.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 6: @NYG): The G-Men are allowing just the 3rd-fewest tight end points per game, and the return of Alshon Jeffery has made Goedert a forgotten man in the Eagles’ passing attack.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Chi.): The Bears have allowed a tight end score in 3 straight games, but Gesicki’s last red zone target came in week one, and he’s yet to hit paydirt all season long.
Rookies on Byes: RB Kerryon Johnson, DET, TE Hayden Hurst, BAL, TE Mark Andrews, BAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 6: @LAC): The turnovers from Mayfield over the past 2 weeks have been troubling, but he’s averaged over 300 yards per game in his 2 starts, and the 2 teams he faced have been less giving to QBs than the Chargers have been on the year. Los Angeles is allowing 284 passing yards per game and nearly 3 touchdowns per game. Mayfield is an intriguing play in DFS and a solid QB2 option.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. TB): It looks like Devonta Freeman is going back on the shelf this week, which means Ito is back in play as a cheap DFS option and flex option in the deepest of leagues. The Bucs allow the 6th-most RB points per game, and this game has the highest over/under of the week. It’s always wise to target players in a shootout in DFS tournaments. Tevin Coleman will still be the main cog in the backfield, but Ito has shown that he can be productive as the number 2 guy.
RB Ronald Jones II, TB (Wk. 6: @Atl.): Peyton Barber has continued to be wildly inefficient, and Jones dressed for the first time in week 4 ahead of the bye week. It’s only a matter of time before the Bucs see what they have in the rookie. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues, and he might start to show what he can do as soon as this week. Atlanta allows the 3rd-most RB points per game and ranks 31st in run defense DVOA, and there isn’t much else to speak of in the Bucs backfield. Things could be lining up for a surprising day from Jones. He is at the very least a cheap punt option for DFS tournaments.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 6: @Min.): Kirk clearly has the best connection with Rosen of any Arizona wide receiver, and there should be plenty of garbage time in this game with the Vikings a double-digit favorite. Kirk will gain value as the year goes on and Rosen gains experience. He’s a player to target in DFS leagues if there are any impatient owners out there.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 6: @Was.): Moore is close to being a stash in all formats. He was finally utilized a bit last week, and he showed why people have been itching to see more of him. Moore caught all 4 of his targets for 49 yards, and took one rushing attempt for 18. He’s not quite start-able yet, but it’s coming.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Most people are going to be off Washington this week after he put up a goose egg and played limited snaps last Sunday, but it was more the result on an unexpected blowout rather than his role being diminished. Washington is still more of a stash in deep leagues and dynasty formats, but it’s possible that we get the shootout here that the Falcons-Steelers game was supposed to be. The Bengals-Steelers game has the 3rd-highest over/under of the week, and Washington should be more utilized than he was last Sunday. He’s only worth consideration in DFS tournaments as a punt option, but his talent will start to show through eventually.
WR Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 6: vs. SF): St. Brown made a few plays last week and finished with 3 catches for 89 yards with Cobb and Allison both out. There’s a chance that we have the same situation again this week, and if that’s the case, ESB becomes a shoot the moon DFS tournament option. Valdes-Scantling is the higher percentage play this week, but St. Brown should be on the radar if Allison sits.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 6: @Was.): Thomas was quietly being more utilized over the past couple weeks and isn’t far from being a name to know in deeper dynasty leagues. It looks like Greg Olsen will be back this week, but Thomas has made huge strides this year after playing just 2 years of college ball. Olsen has had a hard time staying on the field in the last 2 years, and he may be rushing back from his current injury that will require surgery at some point. Thomas has seen 11 targets in the past 2 weeks, and that type of usage will become the norm again if something happens to Olsen. The production hasn’t been impressive so far, but it’ll come.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your tougher lineup decisions that involve rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week, and don’t forget to double check and make sure your players are all active before kickoff. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Last week showed us the drama and excitement that a confidence pool can create.
If you used our picks, then your Thursday/Sunday was just OK. Unfortunately it included seeing other players in your pool creeping up towards your top spot!
HOWEVER! Since we had our 14 point line still in play and a whole lot of justified faith in a record-setting Drew Brees and the Saints, we were able to put more space in between us and the rest of the pack!
As you’ll see soon, we will be doing the same again this week. So let’s get to it!
Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
15 – GREEN BAY over San Francisco – If not for Mason Crosby, the Packers would have pulled out a big division road win last week. Don’t expect Crosby to do the same this Monday Night.
14 – ATLANTA over Tampa Bay – The Jameis-led Bucs still have some things to prove before they can gain any sort of confidence from the NFL fans.
13 – MINNESOTA over Arizona – Minnesota extracted a bit of revenge in Philly last week and I see them keeping that momentum going.
12 – TENNESSEE over Baltimore – I said before that the win over the Eagles would show the Titans are for real…but with the Eagles falling off since, THIS will be the game for Tennessee.
11 – HOUSTON over Buffalo – Houston pulled out a nail-biter last week. A home game against the Bills should be a nice cool-down for them.
10 – Los Angeles Rams over DENVER – I love when people say that the a team from a warm climate won’t be able to handle cold weather. Do you really think that the players have NEVER played a game in cold weather?
9 – Jacksonville over DALLAS – I can’t remember the last time the Cowboys were in this bad of shape.
8 – NEW ENGLAND over Kansas City – Patrick…meet Tom.
7 – NEW YORK JETS over Indianapolis –I still think that Sam Darnold can have the career that Andrew Luck should have.
6 – Seattle over OAKLAND (Game Played In England) – Seems fitting the Raiders are playing the Seahawks a week after throwing an interception on the goal line with Marshawn Lynch in their backfield.
5 – CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh – Possibly a passing of the torch game? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is THE BENGALS WILL WIN THE AFC NORTH.
4 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Philadelphia – The week starts off with a matchup of by far the weakest division in the league. We’ll give it to the Giants since they are the home team.
3 – Carolina over WASHINGTON – I have a sense that the ‘Skins will want to come out strong after their Monday Night embarrassment, but I don’t think it will be enough.
2 – MIAMI over Chicago – The Bears look strong, and Khalil Mack will get his, but the Dolphins should be able to pull this one out.
1 – CLEVELAND over Los Angeles Chargers – I refer you to my previous comments on win-predictions for the Browns.
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- Written by David Biggs
As we continue to take a look at trends and suffer through injuries, picking up valuable replacement/fill-in players to cover for bye weeks and long recovery times, it's important to strive for some consistency in fantasy scoring. Some of the guys I predict to have a successful week outside of the normal top group include: Andrew Luck, James White, Alfred Morris, John Brown, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and Kyle Rudolph. Keep in mind also that Greg Olsen is coming back this week most likely. So scoop him up on your waiver wire if necessary. The Tight End position is very short on fantasy production this season. Good luck in Week 6 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
14.6 Yards per Carry
Isaiah Crowell (CAW!!!) turned in the best rushing yards total for anyone on the season with a whopping 219 yards. What's more impressive is that he reached that total on just 15 carries, good for a 14.6 yards each time he was handed the ball. As stated by our very own Mike Mocerino just two weeks ago on our podcast, Crowell is an odd-week player. It's now...a trend? In weeks 1, 3 and 5, Crowell has 68.4 points thanks to 355 rushing yards and 5 TDs. In weeks 2 and 4, he's got a whopping 4.20 points. For now, Mike's Nostradamus-like prediction of Crowell's season has held true and is a trend that I'll be considering when setting my lineup on at least one team. Crowell finds himself as the 8th best RB on the season in total fantasy points. If you take the average of just his odd week games, he's 3rd, behind only Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley.
2 Turnovers, 28.68 Fantasy Points
Aaron Rodgers had one of the most unique games of his career in Detroit on Sunday. In the first half, all the Packers drives either ended on an Aaron Rodgers fumble, or a Mason Crosby missed field goal. Rodgers would finish the game with his best stat line of the season, throwing for 442 yards and 3 TDs and was the QB2 this week (so far) just behind Tom Brady. Unfortunately for Rodgers, the Packers just can't quit Mason Crosby, who missed 4 field goal attempts and his lone extra point try. That's 13 points in a game that the Packers lost by 8, if anyone's counting. Crosby did kick a 41 yard FG as the game ended, so I guess he's warmed up for next week. Given the state of kicking in the NFL this year, Crosby's job is assured through at least next week, but I have to at least wonder if the Packers might go for it on 4th and medium a bit more now, considering that no-man's land seems to be expanding for their kicker.
5 Straight 100-yard Games
Adam Thielen has set a league record by starting the season with 5 straight games with at least 100 receiving yards. This amazing consistency (with a brand new QB) has him as the #1 WR in standard scoring, just above Cooper Kupp. That's right, Cooper Kupp is the #2 overall WR through 5 weeks of the NFL. They say that the white WRs are gritty, maybe they have the emergence of Gritty to thank for this success. Thielen's 13 targets per game is tied with Antonio Brown for the most on the season. I expect his production to continue considering the Vikings running game is non-existent so far this season. At 2, Kupp is maintaining his strong fantasy performances by finding the end zone 5 times this year. In fact, he only has one game where he has not scored a TD. The Rams continue to roll, the Vikings are finding an offensive groove, and both of these WRs will have the opportunity to turn in career years if they can keep this up.
9 TDs on the Season
Todd Gurley is steamrolling through all the teams he has played this season, finding the end zone 9 times in just 5 games. He's averaging almost 25 points per game and has amazing consistency. His low total was in week 3 where he had 19.6 points. It feels nice when a consensus #1 overall pick can play like it. Right behind him at the top is Alvin Kamara, who hasn't even played this week, but is still the #2 overall RB. These two guys are in a class of their own and are on offenses that are total juggernauts. If Gurley can keep up this pace, he will have over 2000 yards from scrimmage and 28 TDs on the year. That's a bit of a stretch to extrapolate that over just 5 games, but what else is this column for? While we're at it, Jared Goff is going to throw for 5500 yards and 38 TDs. This is fun!
22 Points for the D/ST
A pair of teams reached 22 points for the defense and special teams in week 5. The Cincinnati Bengals scored twice on defense in their impressive comeback against the Dolphins. The Kansas City Chiefs defense finally found their way to the field on the same day as their offense. The picked off Blake Bortles 4 times, sacked him 5 times and scored a TD en route to putting up 22 fantasy points. An honorable mention goes to the Arizona Cardinals, putting up 21 fantasy points in their first victory of the season. I don't know what conclusions to draw from all of this, as I find D/STs (and kickers) to be very chaotic and unpredictable. Backing up my claim is the fact that the top 5 D/STs this week are all owned by less than 50% of Yahoo teams. The Rams, Jags and Eagles all combined for 10 points this week. Streamers rejoice!
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck!
See?! Aren’t you glad that you didn’t assemble a group of the wagering unfortunate from week 3 and burn down my house? If you followed my advice for week 4, you would have had a successful outing(I was 12-3 on the moneyline) and made back that lost scratch, plus a little ‘Black Friday’ spending cash. Okay, still too early to mention X-mas as now I’m sick of myself for bringing it up. Anyway, teams are starting to reveal their true identities at this part of the season and making picks and putting tickets together seems to get easier… well, for me anyway. This is why you listen to my gospel; because you have a chance to take from the gold plate on Sundays instead of always putting in. Remember, there will be a lot of soggy fields out there this weekend, so if you’re putting action on one or some of those games, the under/ over ends up being lower as well as passing/ receiving stats. Have fun and win some!
TEN(-233) -5.5 @ BUF(+205) +5.5 (O/U 39.5) – The Titans surging defense and the Bills’ lack of running makes this a no-brainer for the moneyline. Medium confidence(5-7) on the spread.
BAL(-172) -3 @ CLE(+155) +3 (O/U 45.5) – The Ravens defense is real and were able to handle the Steelers’ firepower last week. The Browns are still a work in progress even though Baker Mayfield looks promising. I like the Ravens with the spread and moneyline.
DEN(-114) -1 @ NYJ(+102) +1 (O/U 42.5) – I have a feeling this game could be closer than a lot of people think. The Broncos are playing on shortened rest and traveling to the east coast for a noon game. I’m not touching it but if I was, I’d take Denver and the moneyline because the Jets are too inconsistent making big plays on offense.
GB(+103) +1 @ DET(-115) -1 (O/U 51) – Wow, another close one. The Packers’ receiving core is decimated and all aspects of Detroit’s game are on the rise. If you were to lay down some bacon on this one, I’d go with Green Bay and the moneyline because the Lions are the Lions and most importantly… Aaron Rodgers.
JAX(+135) +3 @ KC(-150) -3 (U/O 49) – The Chiefs will pull past the Jags in this barnburner. I’m definitely comfy taking KC and the moneyline, as well as them and the spread(maybe lower it by half a point if in a parlay) and the Over.
ATL(+152) +3 @ PIT(-169) -3 (U/O 58) – The Steelers and both moneyline and spread. Falcons defense is like a wet paper bag(Pittsburgh D not great but better than Atlanta’s) which will rip in the first half by the weight of all the first half touchdowns. I would grab the Over.
MIA(+217) +6 @ CIN(-247) -6 (U/O 48) – Even though I feel the Bengals are going to win this one, I’m only taking the moneyline because G. Bernard is out and Cincinnati will be working Mixon back in. If he has a set-back of some kind, there goes the running game. Luckily, Dalton and the aerial assault should get the win.
NYG(+226) +6.5 @ CAR(-257) -6.5 (O/U 43.5) – The Panthers are coming off a bye week and are well rested. The G-Men can’t find a rhythm to march in. I like Carolina with both the spread and moneyline.
OAK(+204) +5 @ LAC(-232) -5 (O/U 52.5) – The Raiders’ defense is sub-par and I don’t think they can stop Melvin Gordon and the other weapons that Philip Rivers has in his gun belt. I’m definitely taking the moneyline and most likely will put some action on the spread. LA’s secondary has been exploited without Joey Bosa playing at the line, so I feel confident with the Over on this one.
LAR(-314) -7.5 @ SEA(+272) +7.5 (U/O 50) – It’s the Rams. Drink the Kool-Aid and take both the spread and moneyline. I don’t like the U/O because this is a division game.
ARI(+146) +3.5 @ SF(-163) -3.5 (U/O 40.5) – Another game I am not fond of but am leaning towards the Niners and the moneyline. I also think the Over is a fair bet.
MIN(+152) +3 @ PHI(-169) -3 (U/O 47) – This is my upset of the week. I am taking the Vikings with both the spread and moneyline all day in this one. Eagles have a great run defense but have been struggling against the pass. Definitely stay away from the U/O.
DAL(+147) +3.5 @ HOU(-3.5) -3.5 (U/O 45.5) – This is a game I want no part of... banged up players, shaky defenses, etc. I’m not even considering the notion that it exists and will be played. If I had to pick any kind action, it would be the Texans and the moneyline.
WAS(+225) +6 @ NOS(-256) -6 (U/O 52.5) – I’ll be taking the Saints on both the line and spread, with a side of Over. Lots of offense, little defense in this one. Lots of points.
NICK’S PICKS to CLICK for Week 5:
3 TEAM PARLAY (BAL -3) – (KC -3) – (PIT -169 ml)
3 TEAM PARLAY (MIN +3) – (LAR -7.5) – (NOS -256 ml)
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
We have reached the end of the first quarter of the season. If you have been following along all year then you could very well be sitting at the top of your season-long pool.
Plenty of season left to go though, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
15 – NEW ENGLAND over Indianapolis – Ask the Dolphins how the Patriots are feeling about their slow start! This week should be no different.
14 – NEW ORLEANS over Washington – It should be an historic day in New Orleans as the Saints will ride the momentum of the new career passing yards leader to a win.
13 – CAROLINA over New York Giants – The Panthers have one of the most exciting offense’s in the league. There is no way the Giants will be able to contain them.
12 – CINCINNATI over Miami – Trips to New England and Cincinnati should bring the Dolphins back down from the cloud they were on when they started 3-0.
11 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Oakland – Can’t host the Browns every week, Raiders!
10 – SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona – Without Jimmy G, the 9ers are bad. The Cardinals are worse, though.
9 – PHILADELPHIA over Minnesota – Three weeks ago this would have been considered a Game of the Year contender. Now … not so much!
8 – Tennessee over BUFFALO – I said that a win over the Eagles would prove the Titans are for real, so I am a believer. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE TITANS WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH.
7 – HOUSTON over Dallas – Texas is considered to be The Football State. Hard to believe now that these are their two professional representatives!
6 – NEW YORK JETS over Denver – I can see this being a breakout game for Sam Darnold.
5 – PITTSBURGH over Atlanta – In the battle of teams with a really confused identity, the Steelers have at least shown that they can pull things together to win a game.
4 – KANSAS CITY over Jacksonville – The Chiefs will take this potential AFC Championship game because they are the home team – would be different if the game were in Jacksonville.
3 – DETROIT over Green Bay – When Aaron Rodgers and their top 3 receivers are all dealing with injuries, it’s hard to win on the road in the division.
2 – SEATTLE over Los Angeles Rams – Simply put, the Rams can’t win them all … … … right?
1 – CLEVELAND over Baltimore – It will be a little while before I can put the Browns winning higher than the 1 line, but we are getting there.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was an exciting one, and one that went much more according to plan than week 3. Fitzmagic may have died for good, Corey Davis finally had the breakout game we’ve been waiting for, and Patrick Mahomes saw his legend grow after an incredible left-handed throw helped the Chiefs to a come from behind win on Monday night. It was an exciting week for some rookies as well. Keke Coutee burst onto the scene with a 100-yard day in his NFL debut, Nick Chubb found the end zone twice, and Sony Michel posted 100 rushing yards for the first time. It wasn’t as fruitful a day for the rookie QBs, as all 4 came away with L’s in week 4. Baker Mayfield turned the ball over 4 times, and he still probably played better than Josh Allen. The fun continues this week, so let’s take a look at what to expect in week 5…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 5: @Car.): Barkley has shown himself to be a locked-in RB1 every week regardless of opponent. He’s not an ideal DFS option this week facing a Carolina defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest RB points per game (all scores and ranks are in PPR format), but you can’t sit him in season-long leagues. His usage gives him too much weekly upside to bench him.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): The Patriots are a 10-point favorite this week at home against the Colts, and the Rex Burkhead injury has clarified the team’s backfield roles. Michel has taken the reins of the early down work, and James White will serve as the 3rd-down receiving back moving forward. That makes both backs extremely valuable moving forward. In week 4, Michel handled 25 carries despite playing just 33 offensive snaps. He’s the focal point of the run game, and the Pats should get to do a bunch of running again this week. Sony has a chance at a big game.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Regression is likely coming for Ridley, but with 6 TDs in his last 3 games, you have to ride the hot streak while it lasts. That’s especially true with the Falcons traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers’ defense that is bleeding the 3rd-most WR points per game to opponents. Keep rolling with Ridley for now. He may be here to stay.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 5: @SF): Rosen is an intriguing option in 2QB leagues this week facing a less than stellar 49ers’ secondary. The rookie looked at least competent in his first NFL start, and the 49ers have allowed the 8th-most QB fantasy points per game and rank 20th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA statistic. San Francisco has also allowed at least 20 QB points and 2 passing TDs each and every week. Rosen has potential for a much better showing than what he did a week ago.
RBs Royce Freeman & Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 5: @NYJ): Freeman and Lindsay both have shown themselves to be weekly borderline RB2 options regardless of game script, and this week should be no different. The Jets have allowed 30+ RB points in back-to-back weeks, and are not a defense to run away from with this duo. Freeman is the better option in standard leagues, and Lindsay is the better option in PPR formats.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 5: vs. GB): It’s going to be hard to fully rely on Kerryon until the Lions give him the keys to the backfield. His efficiency has been off the charts. He’s averaged more than 5 yards per carry in each of the last 3 games, but he’s averaged just 11 attempts per game. If his efficiency drops a bit, the weekly floor is concerning. Kerryon played just 20 snaps last week out of 54 team offensive snaps. That’s just not enough playing time to treat Johnson as an every-week starter.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 5: @NE): Hines’s role as the top receiving back in Indy seems pretty secure after the way he played in week 4. If Marlon Mack returns this week, I still think Hines gets a decent number of targets. The game script certainly will play in his favor with the Pats favored by 10. He’s going to be a valuable PPR flex option going forward.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Will Fuller is questionable this week with a hamstring injury. If Fuller isn’t able to go, Coutee is a solid flex or WR3 in deeper leagues. He came on the scene in a big way last Sunday, putting up 11-109 on 15 targets in his season debut. The Cowboys do a good job of slowing down the game, but they rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. It may feel like point chasing to use Coutee this week, but the opportunity should be there if Fuller sits.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): For all the excitement Mayfield brought in his first NFL action in leading the Browns to their first win in more than a year, he came crashing back to earth a bit in his first start. Mayfield turned the ball over 4 times against a lackluster Raiders’ team, and gets a tougher matchup with the Ravens this week. Baltimore ranks 5th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and they’ve allowed just one passing score total in the 3 games that they didn’t square off against the Bengals. You might not have a choice in deeper 2QB leagues, but I’d probably lean against Baker this week in most formats.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Den.): The Broncos are not the shut down pass defense they once were, but they’re not exactly a defense to target either. Darnold has put up 3 consecutive shaky performances since his strong debut, and I don’t feel confident that this is the week he gets it going again. He’s a desperation QB2 at best.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): We got to see the good Josh Allen against the Vikings 2 weeks ago, and the bad against the Packers last Sunday…and it was very bad. The Titans are a decent pass defense that has been improving as the season has gone on, but the Vikings weren’t exactly slouches on that side of the ball. Allen’s Jekyll & Hyde act makes him a boom-or-bust QB2 option. There is too much QB production out there this season to take on that weekly risk in a matchup like this one.
RB Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 5: @NE): Game script is likely to be negative for the Colts in this one, and Wilkins hasn’t produced much in the opportunities he’s received thus far. Hines is a much better option at this point.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Even with Chris Carson sidelined in week 4, Penny played second fiddle to Mike Davis, who was extremely impressive in a win over the Cardinals. The Rams are stingy versus the run, and Penny may be the number 3 back moving forward if Carson returns. This is a player to avoid for now.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Chubb’s 2 long TD runs last Sunday were exciting to see and may have earned him more playing time moving forward, but he played just 3 snaps. The Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game, so I would steer clear even if you believe the playing time will go up. Don’t chase last week’s points.
RB Mark Walton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Walton did see a bit more work behind Gio Bernard in week 4, but even with Mixon out he’s no more than a change-of-pace back. He shouldn’t be in your lineups at this point.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 5: @NYJ): The Jets rank 2nd in the league in pass defense DVOA, and QB Case Keenum’s play has been spotty at best. Sutton is no more than a DFS tournament dart throw this week, even though he’s been outplaying Demaryius Thomas lately.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 5: @SF): Kirk is averaging 5 catches per game over the past 3 weeks, but he also averaged 7 yards per catch or fewer in 2 of them. The QB switch to Rosen is likely good for him overall, but his current usage really isn’t helpful in fantasy leagues. A line of 5-30 isn’t going to be much benefit in anything but the deepest of leagues.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Callaway has seen plenty of opportunity over the past few weeks, but he hasn’t turned it into production and has made several mistakes on the field. Hue Jackson has talked about dialing back Callaway’s playing time this week. It may just be a motivation tactic, but I think he’ll make good on it Sunday. I’m staying away from Callaway this week, especially against a solid Ravens’ defense.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I’m hopeful the Panthers made an effort to come up with ways to get DJ more involved over the bye week, but I need to see it before I believe it, especially facing a Giants’ defense that has allowed the fewest WR points per game in the league.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 5: @Hou.): The Texans’ defense against WRs is trending in the wrong direction (22.6, 27.9, 42.4. and 67.4 PPR points allowed in the first 4 games), and Gallup is trending in the right direction (1,2,4, and 5 targets in the first 4 games), but he’s still not seeing enough action to be worth a roll of the dice here. Gallup has totaled just 5-76-0 in 4 weeks.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): With Alshon back Goedert just wasn’t a featured part of the offense in week 4. He was targeted just twice in Carson Wentz’s 37 passing attempts. It seems that at least for now Zach Ertz is back in charge of the TE passing looks in the Eagles’ offense. Goedert should stay on your bench for now.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 5: @Cle.): Hurst’s likely return this week makes an already murky TE situation even more confusing for Baltimore. There are already 3 tight ends playing a decent number of snaps, and adding a 4th won’t add much clarity. We need to wait at least a week to see how things play out.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): The Giants are allowing the 5th-fewest TE points per game, and Thomas has yet to clear 20 receiving yards in a game. He has been targeted in the red zone 3 times, but the Giants are yet to allow a TD to a tight end. I don’t expect Thomas to be the one to break through this week.
Rookies on bye: RB Ronald Jones III, TB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): If Devonta Freeman is active this week, scratch everything that I write here about Smith this week, but Ito has been useful in the deepest of leagues while Freeman has been out. He’s averaged 8 touches and 43 yards per game over the last 3 weeks, and should make an intriguing fill-in for really deep leagues and DFS tournaments if Devonta winds up sidelined again. This game has the makings of a shootout, so there will be plenty of fantasy numbers to go around.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): The Falcons have been shredded by WRs thus far, and have lost 3 safeties to injury this season. Washington has been playing a ton of snaps. The targets are bound to come eventually. He’s an upside dart throw in DFS tournaments this weekend with this game having the highest over/under number of the week.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 5: @Det.): Randall Cobb wasn’t close to playing last week. Geronimo Allison was concussed last Sunday against Buffalo. Davante Adams will match up against Darius “Big Play” Slay. If Allison is out, There will be opportunity for one of Green Bay’s rookie WRs. Valdes-Scantling is the most likely beneficiary after playing 54 snaps in Cobb’s absence in week 4. We haven’t seen enough production to trust him in season-long leagues, but he’s a very interesting DFS dart throw for tournaments this week.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 5: @Cin.): This is as good a week as any to try Gesicki in DFS tournaments. The Bengals have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and have allowed a TD to the position in 3 out of 4 games. Game script should keep the Dolphins throwing with Cincy favored by nearly a touchdown.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your tougher lineup decisions this week that involve rookies. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make certain not to start anyone who is sitting the week out. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.