Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by David Biggs
Most of you are now in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. What an exciting and nerve-racking time for team managers! Injuries and roster changes throughout the league have propelled some unlikely candidates to starting positions - we're thinking positively about some of these newcomers to the rankings, including: Jaylen Samuels, Justin Jackson, Chris Godwin, and Dante Pettis. Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck in Week 14 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
4 of the top 8 QBs - Owned in 34% of Leagues or Less
Week 13 was a rough one for fantasy footballers. The end of the fantasy regular season brought a ton of chaos at the QB position. Only half of the top 8 QBs are likely to be owned in your league. Josh Allen (2nd - 5% owned), Derek Carr (4th - 18% owned), Nick Mullens (6th - 7% owned) and Marcus Mariota (8th - 34% owned) all put up at least 22.5 points in standard leagues. We also saw three regular starters finish outside of the top 25 QBs. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan both had terrible statistical games and were led by Jared Goff who at least won his game on the way to his 9.08 points. With all of this inconsistency at the position, we must give props to Patrick Mahomes, who once again led the way with 33 points and threw for 4 TDs for the 7th time this year (now up to 41 on the season). If the Chiefs can avoid off-field distractions and hold off the red-hot Chargers, then Mahomes is definitely in line to win the league MVP in his first year as a starter.
3 of the top 5 WRs - Owned in 3% of Leagues or Less
Whaaaaaaa? Who are these mystery men that dominated week 13's stat sheets? Well, Dante Pettis led the way with 24.70 points and is owned in just 3% of leagues. Pettis is actually a decent waiver pickup this week, with 20 targets in the last 3 weeks he is definitely trending up. Outside of the Sunday night game, where Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown put on a show, finishing 2nd and 3rd in points this week, we're right back to the guys that are not on any teams. Zay Jones (20.70 pts - 1% owned) and Jaron Brown (18.70 pts - 0% owned) both had 67 receiving yards and 2 TDs, with Jones adding a 2pt conversion. Ultimately, 13 of the top 30 WRs this week are owned in 30% of leagues or less. In a week where points were at a premium, there were sure a lot of touchdowns that made you say "That helps nobody!".
23% More Fantasy Points Than 2nd Place
Saquon Barkley is having a hell of a season. He's nearly to 1000 rushing yards, he's got over 600 receiving yards and has found the end zone a dozen times, but he's in a distant second this year behind Todd Gurley's 282.90 points at the RB position. Gurley is dominating his position in a very Mahomes-esque fashion. He has nearly doubled up the RB10 and has more than doubled up the RB12. Gurley has paid off as the consensus #1 draft pick before the season started, something that usually does not wind up happening. So far, he's racked up 1649 yards from scrimmage along with 19 touchdowns. He's still got 3 weeks to go for fantasy players, so good luck if you've in the playoffs with him. Gurley has topped 20 points in 9 out of 12 games this season. He's got a couple of tough matchups in weeks 14 and 15, but his week 16 matchup is a juicy one in Arizona, so once again he will be delivering some fantasy championships for Christmas.
3+ TDs in 8 Straight Games
Andrew Luck had a great streak of games going, throwing 27 TDs in 8 games, but that was broken on Sunday by the confusing and sometimes-decent Jacksonville Jaguars defense. The Jags blanked the Colts, 6-0 in Cody Kessler's first start for the Jaguars since the official benching of Blake Bortles. Kessler is clearly not the answer at QB, based on the 6 whole points that the Jags were able to muster. But back to the Colts for a moment - their last shutout was in week 7 of last year - also to the Jaguars. Before that, the Colts hadn't been shutout in the regular season since week 13 of the 1993 season - that's right, I had to go all the way back to the Jeff George era. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have a lot of rebuilding to do - with 4 weak opponents on the remaining schedule, they will still struggle to get another win.
135 Rush Yards
Josh Allen has been cut loose and is running free over his last two opponents. Week 13, he put up 135 rushing yards on only 9 attempts, giving him 234 yards on 22 attempts over two games, good for 10.6 yards per attempt. Allen is now third in rushing yards for QBs and has only played 8 games, compared to 12 games for the two guys above him. Extrapolated for a full season, he would have over 580 yards by now, on pace for 778 in 16 games. That's 75% of what Tom Brady has on his entire career, and yes, fine, congrats on getting to 1000 rushing yards, the most meaningless stat of your life. To wrap up on Josh Allen, his 30.74 points in week 13 were second best among all players. He's got 57 points in the last two weeks and has cupcake matchups against the Jets and Lions the next two weeks, so he could wind up as the best streaming option for the first couple of weeks of the playoffs.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
That’s it! No more bye weeks!
There are plenty of points to be had now – and with only a few weeks left in the regular season, the final push to that season-long title begins now!
Week 13 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – SEATTLE over San Francisco – Just a couple years ago you wouldn’t bat an eye to putting Seattle on the top line. Now? Well, a little trepidation, but…I mean…it’s still a home game against the 49ers.
15 – Kansas City over OAKLAND – Yes, I always say try to steer clear of road teams this high. But do I really need to explain this one?
14 – GREEN BAY PACKERS over Arizona – Forget how horrible the Cardinals are, the game is in Lambeau so you know the outcome! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE PACKERS WILL FINISH THE SEASON HAVING WON (or tied) EVERY HOME GAME AND LOST EVERY ROAD GAME.
13 – HOUSTON over Cleveland – Everyone is talking about the Chiefs dominating the AFC, but don’t sleep on the Texans making to their first Super Bowl.
12 – NEW ENGLAND over Minnesota – It’s amazing how low the Vikings are fallen this year.
11 – MIAMI over Buffalo – Remember when this game was the rivalry of the league in the 90s? Now…not so much.
10 – PHILADELPHIA over Washington – This game has the potential to look get as ugly as Alex Smith’s leg. (too soon?)
9 – TENNESSEE over New York Jets – A home game against the Jets is a break the Titans badly need right now,
8 – Los Angeles Rams over DETROIT – After the Monday Night classic, what makes you think the Lions can slow the Rams down?
7 – New Orleans over DALLAS – The Cowboys haven’t played a team like the Saints on this current run that they are on.
6 – ATLANTA over Baltimore – This Battle of the Birds should be a lot more exciting than it probably will end up being.
5 – Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE – The hope the Jags had of winning this one when they benched Blake Bortles went out the window when Leonard Fournette’s suspension was announced.
4 – Chicago over NEW YORK GIANTS – On paper the Bears should be a lot higher on this list…but something is telling me to keep a closer eye on this one.
3 – PITTSBURGH over Los Angeles Chargers – Trying to figure out who Big Ben was trying to throw that last pass to last week removes some of my prime time at home confidence in the Steelers.
2 – Carolina over TAMPA BAY – Just like the Bears/Giants game, I have a funny feeling about this one.
1 – CINCINNATI over Denver – For getting worked against the Browns like they did last week, the Bengals are in the “if you think they’ll win put them on the one-point line” group.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you…this week is the regular season finale. You should have a really good idea of what you need to do to make the playoffs if you’re fighting for a spot. If you need to win and make up some points, it might be worth taking some swings on some riskier plays. If you just need a win, I wouldn’t get too cute. Make sure you know what you need to do when setting your lineups. Each week there have been more and more rookies becoming fantasy relevant. It’s hard to imagine you’re in a matchup that doesn’t involve any rookies this week. Let’s dive in and look at what to expect this week…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Of course you’re not going to sit Saquon in season-long leagues, but he isn’t exactly the chalk play in DFS cash games. Only New England, Detroit and Miami have managed to tally 20 RB points in a game against the Bears this season (all point totals and rankings are based on PPR scoring). The Bears have been a little vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing the 8th-most receptions to the position on the year, but they’ve given up fewer than 70 RB rushing yards in 8 out of 11 contests on the year. Double-digit points for Barkley are likely a given, but don’t count on a ceiling week from the rookie.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): How bad are the Bengals against running backs this year? They’ve been burned by both ground and air. Cincy has given up the 4th-most rushing yards and 5th-most TDs on the ground, and the 7th-most receiving yards and are tied for the most TDs allowed by air. They also rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Lindsay has been one of the best fantasy backs in the league this year despite being underutilized, and he should be a locked in RB1 this week.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): The Texans are a tough matchup, ranking 2nd in run defense DVOA and allowing the 10th-fewest RB points per game, but Nick Chubb has been red hot since the coaching change in Cleveland. He’s averaged 26.6 points per game in the past 3 contests since the switch. You can’t sit a guy producing like that.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Falcons have been getting shredded by backs catching passes out of the backfield all year, and lately they’ve started getting beat up by them on the ground as well. Atlanta has given up 151 rushing yards per game to backs over the past 3 games, and they rank 29th in run defense DVOA. Edwards has exploded onto the scene in Baltimore, topping 100 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 outings while averaging a robust 5.8 yards per carry. He hasn’t done anything as a receiver, but he’s a solid RB2 this week in most formats, and a solid flex play even in PPR leagues. He did pop up on the injury report with a missed practice Wednesday, but it’s likely nothing. I’d expect him, to play. If he sits, Ty Montgomery is a sneaky play this week.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Adams looks like he’s for real so far, and the Eagles appear to be treating him as their feature back. He carried the ball 22 times in week 12, and should be in store for a plenty more work this week. Washington has allowed more than 125 RB rush yards in 3 of their past 4 contests, and rank 26th in run defense DVOA. Adams looks like a strong RB2 option this week.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 13: @TB): DJ Moore was a bit let down the last time he faced the Buccaneers, but I have faith that he doesn’t repeat that dud this time around. Both Devin Funchess and Curtis Samuel were held out of practice Wednesday with injuries. If both are out, Moore and Christian McCaffrey will likely be the beneficiaries. The Bucs have allowed the 4th-most WR points per game, and Moore has tallied 15-248-1 over the past 2 weeks. He should be a strong WR2 option this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): The Texans allow just the 7th-fewest QB points per game, but Baker has been dealing since the regime change and Houston managed to let Marcus Mariota go 22/23 for 302 yards and 2 scores on Monday night. Mayfield has posted 13 touchdowns and just 2 turnovers in his past 5 starts. He’ll likely finish as a back-end QB1 this week in most leagues.
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Falcons’ banged up defense has been bad on all levels this season, and they’ve given up the 2nd-most QB points per game on the year. With no byes this week, Lamar’s lack of passing volume likely makes him a low-end QB1 at best this week, but his rushing upside makes him a fun streamer and DFS play.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 13 vs. Min.): Michel has been fantastic whenever he’s been healthy, but he gets a tough matchup this week. You should still probably start him if you’ve got him, but the Vikings rank 4th in run defense DVOA, have allowed just 3 RB rushing scores all year, and have coughed up 100 rushing yards to the position just once. Volume should carry Michel through, but he’s certainly not an ideal DFS cash game play.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Johnson’s status is still very up in the air for this week. I’d struggle to sit him if he’s healthy. Kerryon has tallied 15+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 outings, but he could see his volume limited if he isn’t 100% this week. The Lions likely see no need to rush him back with their playoff hopes basically dead. The Rams do rank 29th in run defense DVOA, so there is upside for Kerryon to be a solid flex play, but the Rams are heavy favorites and will probably force Detroit into a negative game script. Make sure you have a backup plan if you’re counting on Kerryon.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Ridley has been a TD or bust option most weeks. He found the end zone and had a big game last week, but this week’s matchup is the polar opposite of what he faced in week 12. The Saints allow the most WR points per game, and the Ravens allow the 3rd-fewest per game, and have allowed just 5 WR touchdowns in their past 9 games. Ridley is still in play as a viable WR3 option, but you’ll likely be disappointed if he doesn’t find the end zone.
WR KekeCoutee, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): DeAndre Hopkins has been the only sure thing in this passing game since the trade for Demaryius Thomas. There is upside with the Browns allowing the 7th-most WR points per game, but the addition of DT and the recent emergence of Lamar Miller’s running game have made Coutee a dicey weekly flex option.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 13: @NYG): We’ve seen the upside with Miler over the past few weeks, but the Bears seem to feature a different receiver each week and Mitch Trubisky may be out again. I like Miller more if Trubisky plays, but it feels like each week one of Miller or Taylor Gabriel will be targeted 7+ times. The trick is guessing which one it will be. The Giants allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game. Playing Miller outside of really deep leagues is a roll of the dice this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Allen has only managed to be productive when he’s been able to do damage with his legs, and only 5 teams have allowed fewer QB rushing yards than the Miami Dolphins. The Bills threw just 19 times in a competitive game in week 12, and they’d prefer to stay in that range most weeks. Allen does seem to have his best games when least expected (against Minnesota and Jacksonville), but It would be a pretty big risk to try him this week outside of deep 2-QB leagues.
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 13: @GB): The Packers’ defense hasn’t been great, but Rosen has remained a low-volume passer even in matchups where they’ve been way behind. Green Bay doesn’t give up a lot of passing yards either. Only Kirk Cousins has thrown for 300 or more yards against the Pack, and they’ve allowed an average of less than 225 yards per game to all the other QBs they’ve faced. Even if he throws for 2 scores, Rosen is likely no better than a mid-level QB2.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Ten.): It’s likely that Darnold will stay sidelined this week. If he does play, the Titans’ pass defense isn’t anything to fear but Darnold has averaged just 8.2 points per game in his 5 road starts. He hasn’t topped 13.8 in any of them. Stay away.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): In the last 3 weeks, Ito has posted just 14 carries for 21 yards and 8 catches for 34, and zero total TDs. The Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. There is no reason to have any faith in Ito this week.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 13: @Jax.): Both rookies were a little more involved last weekend than they’ve been in a while, but they still combined for just 11.2 fantasy points on 14 touches. The Jaguars allow the fewest RB fantasy points per game.
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Tre’Quan seems likely to play this Thursday, but I feel a big game coming for the Saints’ usual suspects (Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram) after Brees threw TDs to everyone else last week. The Cowboys do try to shorten the game with a ball control offense, and that’s helped them allow the 2nd-fewest WR fantasy points in the league so far. Smith still has big upside as the WR2 in this offense, but we’ve seen low-floor weeks from him before, and I have a hunch we see another this week. I’d still play Smith over any other receiver listed in the ‘Rookies to Sit’ section.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 13: @GB): As mentioned above, this probably won’t be a big week for Josh Rosen. That doesn’t mean that Kirk can’t have a productive week. The Packers do allow the 6th-most WR points per game. I’d just prefer to play a receiver in a higher upside offense this week.
WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): Both receivers are no more than a DFS dart throw this week. St. Brown appears to have moved ahead of MVS on the depth chart for the time being, but I’m not confident that it will continue this week. Both are risky plays in a game that could be over early on. The Packers are 2-touchdown favorites and could be running a lot.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Callaway’s efficiency has been much better of late after some early season struggles. He’s grabbed 14 receptions on 18 targets in the past 4 games after grabbing just 16 on 42 targets prior to that. He still isn’t seeing enough volume to be productive without a TD, and the Texans have allowed just 1 receiver score in the past 5 games.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Sutton has flashed big upside at times, but he’s yet to catch more than 3 passes in a game or reach 11 fantasy points. You can’t trust that kind of track record with your season on the line.
WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Quinn has shown a nice PPR floor with Colt McCoy at QB, and the Eagles have allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game so far, but they’ve been burned by perimeter receivers, not slot guys. With a full slate of games this week, there are likely better options available.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. NO): The Saints allow the most WR points per game, but don’t be fooled into thinking Gallup is a sneaky DFS dart throw in this matchup. The Saints have been carved up by number 1 receivers, and in the 3 games since the Amari Cooper trade Gallup has 6 catches for 53 yards on 14 targets.
WR Auden Tate, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Tate came out of nowhere last week with 7(!) targets, but he caught just 2 of them for 15 targets. There may be some rapport with new starter Jeff Driskel, but Tate will likely struggle to get on the field with AJ Green back healthy.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Ten.): Herndon has become a big part of the Jets’ passing attack, but the Titans have allowed no more than 5 catches and 52 receiving yards to any TE group other than the Eagles and Zach Ertz. They haven’t allowed a tight end score all season. Herndon likely needs to be the first one to find the end zone for a productive week.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Washington has given up just 3 tight end scores on the year, and no tight end group has made it to 55 receiving yards. Even Ertz may struggle here. Goedert is just a TD dart throw that isn’t likely to hit.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): The Broncos may finally have a game where they are playing from ahead with the Bengals rolling with Jeff Driskel at QB. That could give Freeman some extra run in garbage time against one of the worst RB defenses in the NFL. He’s got a better than average chance at a TD this week.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Penny is only an option in DFS tournaments. The Seahawks love to run the ball when they can, and they’re favored by double-digits against the 49ers. Chris Carson is still the lead back, but one of Penny or Mike Davis is likely to have a solid fantasy day in mop-up duty. The hard part will be guessing which one.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Melvin Gordon will be out multiple weeks after aggravating an injury against the Cardinals. I can’t say I understand why the Chargers played Gordon in a week they were likely to win by multiple scores without him, but it’s happened now. Austin Ekeler should be the lead back in his absence, but Justin Jackson will certainly get some extended run as well. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues. He flashed in garbage time last week with 7 carries for 57 yards against the Cardinals. This week’s matchup is tough, but it bears watching to see how Jackson is used since Gordon could be out up to 4 weeks.
WRs Dante Pettis & Richie James, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Marquise Goodwin is still not with the team as of Wednesday dealing with a personal matter, and Pierre Garcon was limited in practice Wednesday and is still no sure bet to play. Mullens has given the 49ers at least a respectable passing game, and the Seahawks’ defense has been middling against WRs. Pettis posted 7 targets a week ago, and could have a similar target share this week if both Goodwin and Garcon are out. James played more snaps that a healthy Trent Taylor for the first time all year. Both he and Pettis are trending up this week. James is more of a stash at this point, but Pettis has real DFS upside if the top 2 WRs are out.
WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Foster is a boom-or-bust option in a lackluster passing attack, but one that has boomed in back-to-back weeks. He’s posted 5-199-1 in the past 2 games, and while he isn’t likely to repeat that production this week, only 3 teams have allowed more than the 9 passes of 40+ yards that the Dolphins have surrendered. With Josh Allen’s big arm, Foster has a chance to post a run similar to the one former Rams’ receiver Chris Givens went on as a rookie back in 2012 where he caught a 50-plus yard pass in 5 straight games.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Ateman didn’t produce last week, but he saw a ridiculous 10(!) targets. Jordy Nelson is practicing and looks likely to play this week, but the Raiders don’t have a lot of reason to keep featuring the old guys. I’d expect Ateman to continue to see a decent number of targets. Kansas City is just a middling defense against WRs. Ateman should have upside in DFS tournaments this week if the targets keep up.
TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Arnold has slowly started to make an impact for the Saints, and he is starting to look like the successor to Ben Watson as the TE of the future. He won’t get many years of Brees, but he’s still an intriguing dynasty stash. He’s a converted WR who has plenty of upside. Arnold is also a sneaky DFS play this week against a Dallas team that has given up 28-339-3 to TEs in the past 3 weeks.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Hayden Hurst led the Ravens’ tight end group with 4 targets last Sunday, and Andrews had just one, but Andrews is the one I’d take a shot on this week if you’re digging deep for a TE sleeper. Andrews is the best vertical threat the Ravens have at the position, and vertical TEs have given the Falcons and their banged up safety group trouble. They’ve given up solid games to Vernon Davis (5-62), Dan Arnold (4-45-1), OJ Howard (4-62-1) and Ben Watson (5-71).
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies in this critical week. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week, and make sure to check for any surprise inactives on Sunday. You’d hate to miss the playoffs because you take an unnecessary zero. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by David Biggs
Here we go! For many leagues, this is the last week of the regular season. Make it or break it time! This week, there are a few newcomers to the rankings, and some guys that I expect to perform at a higher level than other fantasy football experts are: Philip Rivers, Tarik Cohen, Kenny Golladay, and Allen Robinson. Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck in Week 13 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a 1-week hiatus, and it looks like we missed a pretty explosive week for some rookie receivers, not to mention the scintillating first start of Lamar Jackson’s career. Jackson won’t hold up for long if he keeps carrying the ball 27 times per game, but it worked at least in this one. Not to be outdone, DJ Moore and Tre’Quan Smith each put on a show in week 11. Christian Kirk finished the week as a top-20 option, Keke Coutee was in the top-30 for the week, and Courtland Sutton and Anthony Miller ended up in the top-40. Marcell Ateman and Trey Quinn were also each productive in their first real action of the season. Saquon kept being Saquon, Lindsay kept being Lindsay, but the rest of the rookie RB crop was quiet in week 11 outside of a breakout performance by unknown Gus Edwards. Will any of these trends continue this week? Let’s dive in and take a look…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 12: @Phi.): You obviously know what to do with Saquon, but I wanted to give a little background on the matchup this week. The Eagles’ injury-riddled defense has allowed 31 RB points per game in their last 5 contests (all scoring and rankings are in PPR format). There are only 3 teams in the league that allow more than that per game for the year. The return of Timmy Jernigan this week might help Philly, but the Saquon show doesn’t take weeks off.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Like Philly’s, the Cincinnati defense has been crumbling of late. Over their past 8 games, the Bungles have coughed up more than 135 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing scores to RBs. Chubb should be a strong RB2 play in this one.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Michel should’ve had a chance to get healthier over New England’s bye last weekend, and he gets a great situation this week. The Pats are 9.5-point favorites on the road at the Meadowlands this week. The game script should be run-heavy and the Jets have a middling run defense that ranks 17th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Only 6 teams have allowed more rushing scores to backs than the Jets.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Edwards should be a great option this week, especially in non-PPR formats. I did list Phillip Lindsay in the borderline category this week, but I’d be hard-pressed to start Edwards over him in a PPR league. With that said, I love Edwards this week. I can’t imagine the Ravens would go back to Alex Collins this week after the performance Edwards put together against the Bengals, and the Raiders have been shredded on the ground this year. Baltimore is a double-digit favorite, and Oakland has given up more than 100 running back rush yards in 8 of their last 10 games, and more than 150 in 4 of them. Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability from the QB position only serves to open up more lanes for Edwards. If you managed to get Gus on the wire this week, find a way to get him into your lineup.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Mayfield is nearly a must-start in 2-QB leagues this week, but he’s a borderline option in leagues where you start just one. Baker’s been really consistent over the past month-plus, and has seemed to turn a corner since Hue and Haley were fired. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 straight starts, and has only turned the ball over twice in those games. Cincinnati has allowed the 2nd-most QB points per game. Keep rolling with Baker in 2-QB formats until he gives you a reason not to.
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Jackson was phenomenal in his first NFL start, and he gets rewarded with one of the easiest matchups imaginable. We already know what Jackson can do with his legs and his running ability, and this week he faces a Raiders team that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and has allowed multiple passing scores in 9 of the 10 games they’ve played. Jackson is a high-upside QB2 this week with some borderline QB1 appeal in deeper leagues.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): I’d still lean toward starting Lindsay even though I listed him as a borderline option. I just want to emphasize that this is one of the tougher matchups he’ll face. The Steelers have allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and the Broncos have really failed to feature Lindsay as much as they should. He’s been hyper-efficient, averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry, but he’s received more than 15 carries in a game just twice all year, and has more than 3 receptions just twice as well.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): It’s been a while since Calvin teased us with his string of blowup games in the season’s first few weeks. He’s shown a floor right around 7 points, but we’ve kind of lost the ceiling a bit. This week is as good as any to take a chance on him finding it again. The Saints have allowed more WR points per game than any other team, and the Falcons are likely to be throwing as 2-score underdogs. The risk of another floor game is still there, but Ridley is a reasonable upside WR3 this week.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Moore’s coming-out party last weekend was a blast, but Carolina’s passing volume is never a given. Cam Newton has thrown fewer than 30 times in 4 of Carolina’s 6 wins this year, and the Panthers are favored this week. He could see a bigger target share with Devin Funchess listed as questionable, and we’ve seen him flash the skills to be a big-time player in this league. If the volume is there, he should be a solid WR3 this week.
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Smith had a huge breakout game last weekend against Philadelphia, but he looks iffy to play on Thursday night after missing Tuesday’s practice and getting in a limited session Wednesday. He revealed last Sunday that Drew Brees pulled him aside to tell him the reason he threw him the ball on his 2nd TD catch was because he trusts him. That could just be a motivational tactic from Brees, or it could be a positive sign for Smith going forward. The Saints have so many mouths to feed in this offense that it leads to some low-floor performances. We’ve seen those with Tre’Quan a couple times in recent weeks. The Falcons do allow the 7th-most WR points per game, so the matchup is ripe for another strong performance if Smith is able to play. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): The Lions corners outside of Darius Slay have struggled mightily in coverage this year. Several secondary receivers have torn this defense apart this season: Danny Amendola (6-84-1), David Moore (4-97-1), DJ Moore (7-157-1), Equanimeous St. Brown (3-89), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (7-68-1), Quincy Enunwa (6-63-1) and notably Miller himself (5-122-1) have all had strong days against this defense. I’d expect the Lions to be a little more aware of Miller this time around, and he’ll likely be catching passes from Chase Daniel rather than Mitch Trubisky, but he’s still a decent flex option in deeper leagues and has a ton of DFS tourney upside.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): Rosen has made some strides in his rookie year. He’s made some big plays to Christian Kirk and had his first 3-TD game last week, but he’s still throwing for minimal yardage (just 2 games over 210 yards and peak of 252), and the Chargers have been stingy against the pass of late. They’ve allowed just 5 passing scores in their past 6 contests, and have allowed just 1 QB to top 250 yards passing and one to top 16 fantasy points in that span. Rosen isn’t the type to overcome that for a solid day.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): It’s looking more and more like Darnold is going to miss this game. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d still steer clear if he does play. It’s possible the bye week got him straightened out (both physically and mentally), but I wouldn’t count on it. Darnold turned the ball over 4 times twice in his last 3 starts. There could be some garbage time upside for Darnold in this one with the Pats heavily favored, but you know better than to chase garbage time points.
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Allen looks set to return just in time to face one of the most fearsome pass defenses in the league, Jalen Ramsey and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars rank 7th in pass defense DVOA, and the Bills’ offense remains a dumpster fire. A rusty Josh Allen could get roughed up a bit in his return.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Phillip Lindsay above, the Steelers are a tough matchup for RBs, and Freeman is getting by on touchdowns alone. He hasn’t reached 40 rushing yards in a game or more than 10 fantasy points since week 4.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Smith has just 10 carries for 21 yards in the last two weeks, and the Saints allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game. Ito continues to see some goal line work, but not enough that you can bank on it. He also isn’t seeing enough action in the passing game to offset his poor rushing performances. This game should be pass-heavy for Atlanta with the Saints favored by 12. It looks like more of a Tevin Coleman night for the Falcons backfield.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 12: @Car.): Penny should continue to work as the number 2 back behind Chris Carson this week. He’s been pretty efficient with his touches over the last 2 games, but the Panthers have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game and rank a respectable 12th in run defense DVOA. Penny has managed to top 6 PPR points just 3 times all year, and reached double-digits just once. The upside isn’t there for you to trust Penny unless something happens to Carson.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Jordan Wilkins pleasantly surprised in week 11 by scoring a TD, but he and Hines still combined for just 9 carries and 3 targets in a game that the Colts won by 4(!) scores. This backfield is Marlon Mack’s show until further notice.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): This isn’t the best week to roll our Christian Kirk. The Chargers allow the 8th-fewest WR points per game, and just one wide receiver has found the end zone against them in the past 5 games. Kirk’s role in this offense is secure, but his upside is severely limited this week.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Sutton has played pretty well over the past 3 games, averaging 3-71, but the QB play of Case Keenum holds this entire offense back, and the Steelers have been playing much improved pass defense of late. They’ve allowed fewer than 30 WR fantasy points in each of the last 4 contests. Only 2 teams in the league have allowed fewer than 30 per game on the year.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Gallup is dealing with the suicide death of his brother from last weekend, and also has to get ready on a short week for a Thursday game. I’m surprised he’s going to play. Some people feel like it’s a welcome distraction from the grief to go play a game and not think about it. Brett Favre played one of the greatest games of his career after the death of his father, but I can’t imagine taking the field so soon after the death of an immediate family member and being able to focus on football. I wish Gallup all the best both on and off the field this week.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): The new coaching regime has opened up the game plan and gotten other weapons more involved in Cleveland (most notably Duke Johnson Jr.), and that’s made Callaway’s already low floor even lower. His stats haven’t dropped off much, but his targets have. In the 7 games prior to the coaching change, Callaway averaged 6.3 targets per game. He’s had just 7 total in the 2 games since the change. There may be some upside in DFS tournaments this week, but I would take my chances elsewhere.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): If you’re looking for spots to use Goedert in any format, you’re searching for the opportunities where he has the best chances of finding the end zone. In each game this year he’s either scored a TD and finished with double-digit fantasy points or failed to score 4 points. This week isn’t a prime opportunity for a touchdown. The Giants have allowed just one TE to hit paydirt all year.
TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): These two might be a decent DFS dart throw if they were one guy, but individually there just isn’t enough upside to roll the dice, especially in tougher matchups. Only one team has scored double-digit points against Tennessee from the tight end position, and that was Zach Ertz and the Eagles.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): It’s pretty hard to trust much of the Philly offense after their putrid performance in week 11, but Adams was a bright spot. He continued to produce with limited touches, and now has averaged 7.6 carries and 53.6 yards per game in the last 3 (7 ypc). This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 8th-most RB points per game and rank 20th in run defense DVOA. The game script also should be much better for Adams with the Eagles favored by a touchdown. Adams should be a good option in deeper leagues and a bargain in DFS tournaments.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Bringing in Demaryius Thomas hasn’t affected Coutee the way I feared it would. Coutee posted a 5-77 line in his return from a hamstring injury, and the Titans are a good matchup for him this week. Tennessee ranks 24th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 12: @Min.): MVS could be in line for a bounce-back week after he burned a lot of fantasy owners in week 11. The Vikings rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing number 1 receiver, but just 25th on throws to the number 2 guy. Xavier Rhodes probably has a lot to do with that. It might not be a great week to go for Davante Adams in DFS lineups, but Valdes-Scantling has some appeal in DFS tourneys in deeper fantasy formats.
WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ from the 2018 draft made some noise in his first regular season action. It may be point chasing to point him out as a sleeper now, but this is a team that has really missed Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson this year. This team loves to throw to their slot receivers, as evidenced by the 15-176 that Maurice Harris tallied in weeks 9 & 10. Those numbers didn’t stop Quinn from supplanting him in week 11. Jamison Crowder could return this week, but Quinn should be a decent floor PPR option going forward in the same vein as Bruce Ellington or Cole Beasley.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Ateman is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues and in dynasty formats. Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant have shown time and again this year that they can’t be relied upon to produce or stay healthy, and Ateman’s 4-catch, 50-yard debut is already the 4th-best receiving yardage total any Raider WR has posted in a game this season. He’s a big, raw, physical player who could make a splash down the stretch. The reason why I call Ateman a stash is because this week’s matchup is a tough one. Baltimore allows just the 6th-fewest WR points per game, but the coast gets a little clearer after. The Chiefs, Steelers and Bengals are the opponents that follow, and the Raiders should be throwing a bunch in each game.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Herndon has turned into the clear top TE on this team over the course of the season, and the Pats are quietly struggling to defend the position this year. New England has allowed 6 tight end scores in the past 6 games, and at least 50 receiving yards to them in each contest as well. Herndon hasn’t caught for a ton of yards, but he’s reached 10 points or more 3 times in the past 5 games. He’s a back-end TE1 this week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your toughest decisions involving rookies. This week is a critical one with only two weeks left before the fantasy playoffs begin. Make sure to double-check your lineups for any players with games on Thursday, and this especially goes for players with injury designations that play on the holiday. Kerryon Johnson, Chris Thompson and Marvin Jones have already been ruled out and Tre’Quan Smith, Mitch Trubisky and a host of others are questionable as well. Make sure you aren’t starting inactive players before going into your turkey comas on Thursday. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
We have arrived at the Holiday Season.
Thanksgiving is upon us – a time to spend with family an reflect on the blessings that you have received and offer the appropriate thanks!
In this case, we are thankful for getting THREE football games on a Thursday! Yay football!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Week 12 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)
15 – BALTIMORE over Oakland – The Raiders are riding high on their current one-game winning streak. Look for them to get back on the path of claiming the #1 pick in the draft this week.
14 – NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta – Is there a team you have more confidence in this season than the Saints? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE SAINTS WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL THIS YEAR.
13 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Arizona – I’m confident the Chargers learned from their mistakes last week. Two straight home losses against mediocre at best teams just won’t happen.
12 – PHILADELPHIA over New York Giants – The Eagles embarrassed the Giants on national television in New York just a few weeks ago. What makes you think the same won’t happen when the game is in Pbilly?
11 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – You know you have it good when you can trade for an offensive weapon like Demaryius Thomas, basically not use him at all, and still find ways to come out on top.
10 – New England over NEW YORK JETS – The Patriots are playing the Jets…in New York…on Thanksgiving week…days after Mark Sanchez signs with another team – oh the memories!
9 – INDIANAPOLIS over Miami – The Colts have been looking like the perennial playoff team they were just a few years ago.
8 – CAROLINA over Seattle – The Panthers should be happy this game is in Charlotte as it will go a long way in determining who gets an NFC Wild Card spot.
7 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland –The battle of Ohio…and that’s where the excitement ends.
6 – TAMPA BAY over San Francisco –Here’s a mini bold prediction for you – if the Bucs put up another 500 yard game, they will score at LEAST six points. Bold, I know.
5 – Pittsburgh over DENVER – Last week proved that the Steelers are not out of any game and can always find a way to win.
4 – DALLAS over Washington – Our traditional Thanksgiving stop in Dallas should include a not-so-recent traditional outcome…a Cowboys wins!
3 – MINNESOTA over Green Bay – The Vikings are still in it, but they will need to win this big divisional matchup to stay in the hunt…and they know it.
2 – BUFFALO over Jacksonville – What happened to the Jags?
1 – DETROIT over Chicago – Who knew that Mitchell Trubisky would become so valuable to the Bears that him not starting could mean losing a game?
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- Written by David Biggs
Players I expect to perform at a higher level this week than other experts include: Tarik Cohen, Tyler Lockett, and Vance McDonald. Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck in Week 12 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.
14 Fantasy Points
Through Sunday, week 11's top TE scored just 14 points, and it's courtesy of old man Antonio Gates - owned in a whopping 3% of leagues. This season's volatility at the tight end position continues week after week. In the top 10 alone, we had Robert Tonyan (0% owned) at TE3, Ed Dickson (4% Owned) at TE7 and Matt Lengel (0% Owned) at TE10. Even top guys aren't guaranteed a respectable floor, as we saw Zach Ertz turn in a 1.5 point performance as the 30th best TE this week. Ertz wasn't alone - Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham all turned in scores either tied with Ertz or lower than him. I wish I knew how to see stuff like this coming - but the TE position has been so damn chaotic, it's impossible to predict what random guys will do well one week, and which ones will lay an egg. It's a position with a floor of basically nothing, and no players seem to be exempt from this. Perhaps the notion of eliminating the TE as an exclusive position isn't as crazy as it first sounded.
7 Wins in a Row
The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 and have followed it up with 7 wins in a row, becoming the first team since 1970 to go on a roll like that after such a bad start. During that streak, they've only faced two teams that were over .500 going in to the game - Miami in week 8 and Washington yesterday. Needless to say, the Texans have had it easy, and will continue to have an easy time with 4 of their last 6 games at home. Their toughest game remaining will be the Colts in week 14. The Texans are currently giving up the 6th fewest points and 7th fewest yards to opposing offenses, while keeping their offense in the top half of the league in both categories (despite the offense scoring over 23 points just twice this season). Aside from J.J. Watt on defense, there are no real stand-outs on the Texans. Deshaun Watson, who was very impressive in 6 starts last year, has come back down to earth. He does have a few things going for him, however. First, his completion percentage is up, his yards per attempt is the same as last year, and he's throwing interceptions at a much lower rate than he was last year. His touchdown numbers have merely come back to earth - it's hard to keep throwing a TD in 9.3% of your passes, like he did last year.
27 Carries
A player getting 27 carries is usually the sign of a running back dominating the carries on their team, but this time it's a lot different. The Baltimore Ravens went into the bye week and announced that Joe Flacco was hurt - and they emerged with what seems like a completely different offense. Lamar Jackson (27 carries) and UDFA Gus Edwards (17 carries) combined for 232 yards on 44 rushes in a grand display of helping absolutely no one in fantasy football. Jackson's 27 carries broke the old QB record of 22, held by famously "awesome" QB Tim Tebow. Running the ball this many times by a QB is not a recipe for long term success, but it does go a long way to silence the talk about John Harbaugh being on the hot seat in Baltimore. The QB situation is very muddy for the Ravens now, as it seems like Flacco will start if he's healthy, but there's no real indication what his timetable might be. I suppose it's time to abandon all hope, ye owners of Ravens wide receivers. Also, can someone please explain where the hell did Gus Edwards came from?
1-4 When Gaining 500+ Yards
The 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve strong consideration for this year's dumpster fire of a team. Since their Fitzmagical start, they've just won one game - an OT game against the Browns in Week 7. Throughout the course of the season, the Bucs have racked up the most yards on offense in the league and they are on pace to throw for 5993 yards, which would be a record if just one person threw all those passes. Instead, they've had a QB shuffle all season, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combining for 23 picks through 10 games. With all those turnovers, it's no wonder that the Bucs are giving up the most points in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. The turnovers are also the reason that they've only won 1 of their 5 games where they gained over 500 yards. The defense is also contributing fuel to the fire, giving up a touchdown on 88.9% of their opponent's red zone trips. This team just has some of the most extreme stats in the league, and clearly can't get their shit together - however it's great fun for those of us who have a Bucs WR on our fantasy team.
604 Points
The Saints are on pace to score over 600 points this season and could approach or even break the 2013 Denver Broncos record of 606. This is all led by Drew Brees having one of his best seasons ever. He currently leads the league in completion percentage at 76.9%, as well as interceptions with just 1. The completion percentage is set to smash his previous record (and NFL record) of 72.0%, which he set just last year. In fact, Brees has 9 of the top 40 NFL passing seasons by completion percentage, including 2018. It's absurd that this man hasn't won an MVP award, but that just goes to show the talent across the rest of the league. As of Monday, before the epic MNF matchup, Patrick Mahomes led the MVP odds at -125, with Brees trailing him closely at +150. That's good money for Brees, if you ask me. I think the voters will give Brees a lifetime achievement award this season, especially if his team can lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, which is a real possibility given their remaining schedule.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
Week 11 got under way on Thursday night with a thrilling game between the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks. This one was back and forth the whole way with the Seahawks eventually squeaking one out after Mike McCarthy decided to punt on fourth and two late in the 4th quarter. The Pack was unable to come up with a stop with their one timeout and never saw the ball again.
The schedule this week is a brutal one for making picks, with many close match ups. Also, you have the Patriots, one of the best teams, on bye as well as 4 of the worst teams in the Bills, Jets, Browns, and 49ers. If I hadn't watched the games last week my pick would have been a slam dunk choosing the Falcons at home against the Cowboys. However I did watch and the Falcons looked pathetic against the Browns, the Cowboys put a beating on the Eagles and the Titans proved they were for real vs the Pats, making the Cowboys loss to them in the previous week not look so bad.
So, facing a tough decision, I've decided to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers in their match up with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last season the Jags had the Steelers number, but this is a new year and Pitt has been rolling as of late and appear to be peaking at the right time, while the Jags are back to blaming Blake Bortles for all their woes. Only two other teams are bigger favorites than the 5.5 the Steelers are getting on the road in this one. Both of those teams have more dangerous offensive opponents. The Saints are 8.5 point favorites hosting the Eagles, and the Chargers are 7.5 point favorites hosting the Broncos (however Carson isn't a home field advantage for the Chargers).
Cheers,
Drink Five!