Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Now it gets interesting.
For the first time this season (excluding the Bucs/Dolphins situation in week 1) some teams in the league will be on bye.
What that means for us is that there will be less games to pick…and less points to get! Every pick is critical, you need to make sure to get as many points as you can during this time. You may have made selections based on a hunch you may have had previously, but the hunch level needs to take a significant hit. We don’t have a lot of wiggle room to work with.
Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
14 – PITTSBURGH over Jacksonville – The "Coming Back Down to Earth" party for the Jags will definitely continue against the high-powered Steelers offense. No temper tantrum for Antonio Brown this week!
13 – PHILADELPHIA over Arizona – Pennsylvania is apparently the best place to be this week as the two Keystone State representatives should easily bring home a pair of wins.
12 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Los Angeles Chargers – I know what you’re thinking "YOU JUST TOLD US NOT TO RELY ON HUNCH’S!" And yes, seeing the Giants this high would be considered a "hunch" if it weren’t against a winless Chargers team that has to travel across the country.
11 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Seattle – Just a month ago you would expect to see this game on this line, but with the opposite result. But having an offense that’s deservingly been compared to the "Bob N’ Weave" team a decade and a half ago makes the Rams legit.
10 – OAKLAND over Baltimore – Yes, Derek Carr is out of this one – but EJ Manuel didn’t look too shabby in relief in Denver last week. He should be able to do enough to keep more points on the board than the Ravens.
9 – Minnesota over CHICAGO – I’m not going to say that the Mitchell Trubiski era will start with a 5 INT game or anything like that, but against that Viking defense it won’t end with a win.
8 – CINCINNATI over Buffalo – The Bills did get a big win in Atlanta last week and are sitting at the top of the division, but the Bengals offense finally showed signs of life last week. Not good news for opposing defenses.
7 – Green Bay over DALLAS – In a rematch of their amazing playoff matchup, there is no reason to think the same outcome won’t happen – especially with how Cowboys are looking lately.
6 – TAMPA BAY over New England – Thanks to their dreadful defense, Tom and the boys are going to start the season 2-3…that just makes me happy!
5 – DETROIT over Carolina – The Panthers showed signs of life last week. Unfortunately they won’t be able to play the previously mentioned Patriots defense every week.
4 – Tennessee over MIAMI – Tennessee may seem a little lost if Mariota isn’t able to play. But, as we have seen this season so far, any team quarterbacked by Jay Cutler is in a perpetual state of confusion.
3 – HOUSTON over Kansas City – Sunday Night Football could give us the game of the week with this AFC matchup. The biggest reason I fell the Texans will win is because my BOLD PREDICTION for the week is that DESHAUN WATSON WILL HAVE ANOTHER FOUR TOUCHDOWN GAME.
2 – INDIANAPOLIS over San Francisco – In a week where we already have less than a full schedule, we get two "have to play it because it is on the schedule" games. This is one …
1 – CLEVELAND over New York Jets – … and this is the other.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The chaos of week 3 seemed to spill over into week 4 as we were treated to another round of surprise results. The primetime games all seemed to go according to plan, but the morning and afternoon games on Sunday were chock full of surprises again. The Dolphins were shellacked again as Alvin Kamara piled up 10 catches. Buffalo stunned the Falcons. Deshaun Watson and the Texans dropped over 50 points on the Titans. The “tanking” Jets pulled off their second win in as many weeks, and the Rams upended the Cowboys as Cooper Kupp got into the end zone for the 2nd time this year. There were plenty of impressive rookie performances, from Watson to Kupp to Kamara to Elijah McGuire, and the rookies will get even more important as the bye weeks get started. This week will be a little trickier to set lineups with Washington, New Orleans, Denver and Atlanta taking the week off. Let’s take a look at what to do with the rookies on your rosters and see if any of them can help fill in for those starters on byes…
Rookies to Start:
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 5: @Hou.):The Texans allow just the 3rd-fewest fantasy points per game (all stats in PPR scoring unless otherwise noted), so this may not be the best week to fire up Hunt in DFS lineups, but he’s a must-start in season-long leagues. He had his worst fantasy game of the year on Monday night, and still topped 100 rushing yards and ended up the RB17 for the week. You simply can’t sit him regardless of matchup right now.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Fournette has scored a TD and logged at least 16 touches and 61 scrimmage yards in every game so far, and the Steelers’ run defense has had some cracks this season. They’ve allowed 5.61 yards per carry to opposing backs over the past 3 weeks and have allowed the 9th-most RB points per game for the season. Fournette should be penciled in as an RB1 once again.
RB Aaron Jones, GB (Wk. 5: @Dal.): This status only applies if Ty Montgomery sits as expected. Jamaal Williams is expected to miss this game as well, and that would mean Jones has the backfield pretty much to himself. The Cowboys allow the 7th-most RB points per game, and the 3rd-most RB receiving yards per game. While Jones hasn’t flashed much receiving ability at the NFL level, he did put up 646 receiving yards in his college career at UTEP. With the byes and injuries going on right now, Jones should be a solid RB2 if TyMo and Williams are both sidelined.
Borderline Rookies:
QB DeShaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. KC):Watson has dazzled in his last two starts for the Texans. He gets a tougher matchup this week against a Chiefs team that has allowed just 7.1 QB points per game on the road (vs. Tom Brady and Philip Rivers). There is some reason for optimism though. Kansas City has allowed the 8th-most passing yards per game and the 2nd-most QB rushing yards per game so far. There’s certainly risk that Watson turns into a pumpkin this week, but he’s easily the highest-upside streamer that’s likely to be available in most leagues. He’s a borderline QB1 option this week.
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ):Don’t overreact when you see Kizer and Watson listed in the same section. Watson is a borderline option in standard leagues this week…Kizer is more of a borderline option in 2-QB leagues. With 4 teams on bye (3 with a top-10 fantasy QB), almost all of the starting QBs are in play in the 2-QB format. Kizer has been up and down so far this year with 2 games at 18 points or more scored, and two games under 4 points. The Jets have looked pretty good over the past 2 weeks at home after scuffling in 2 road games to start the year. There is some hope that with this game in Cleveland that the Jets return to their struggling ways, but I doubt that happens. The floor for Kizer is helped by the fact that the Jets allowed both mobile QBs they’ve faced, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor, to rush for over 35 yards, but it’s still pretty a pretty low floor For DeShone. There’s always the chance that Hue Jackson benches him mid-game for Kevin Hogan again. Kizer is a boom-or-bust streaming option for 2-QB leagues.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.):Sub-par O-line play has made it hard for Mixon to really get going, but his usage has been promising. Mixon only played on 48% of the offensive snaps in week 4, but he touched the ball 21 times on 31 snaps played. The Bills’ run defense is tough, but it isn’t impenetrable. They were ranked 9th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat through week 3, and then they allowed the Falcons’ RBs to rush for over 5 yards per carry. The Falcons’ rushing attack has been much more efficient than the Bengals’ this year, but Mixon remains in play as an RB2/flex option that carries a bit of risk. If he sees 20+ touches again, he should return better value than he did a week ago.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.):McCaffrey was a big letdown in a good spot last weekend. He posted just 8.9 PPR points on 10 touches against a Patriots defense that had been bleeding receiving points to running backs. For the season, he’s just the RB20 in PPR scoring and has finished higher than the RB24 just once in an individual week. The Lions are just a middling running back defense, but it’s hard to trust CMC as more than a lower end PPR RB2/flex play, even with the byes this week. He’s always a threat to have a blow-up week with his talent, but he’s had just one play all year that went for more than 16 yards.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Min.):Cohen clings to the borderline this week in PPR formats due to byes/injuries, but this is probably not a great spot to use him. For starters, there’s the uncertainty of how much his role will change with Mitch Trubisky at QB. He’s averaged 7 targets a game with Glennon at QB, and there’s no guarantee that holds up with Mitch. There’s also the fact that the Vikings run defense has been excellent so far, even after allowing 94 yards and a TD to Ameer Abdullah last weekend. They’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards, the 4th-fewest yards per carry, and the 2nd-fewest RB fantasy points per game. While Cohen thrives on passing game work as much as rushing, the Vikes have allowed the 5th-fewest RB catches per game as well. Cohen’s game-breaking ability could help him overcome the tough matchup, but everything seems stacked against him this week. I’d only play him if you have to.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. Sea.):Kupp has seen 6 or 7 targets in 3 of the first 4 games of the year. The Seahawks are more susceptible to slot WRs than perimeter guys, especially with normal slot corner Jeremy Lane out. Kupp should see mostly New England castoff Justin Coleman’s coverage in this one. The Seahawks’ vaunted Legion of Boom secondary has struggled away from C-Link Field so far this year, allowing 39.6 PPR points per game to opposing WRs on the road. Kupp should be a reasonable WR3 option in PPR again despite the Seahawks’ defensive reputation.
TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. LAC):The Chargers have allowed the 7th-fewest points per game to opposing TEs, and held Travis Kelce to 1 catch for 1 yard in week 3, but Engram just keeps putting up borderline TE1 weeks. Through 4 games, he’s ranked as the TE14, TE9, TE14, and TE8. If you need a streamer to replace Jordan Reed this week, Engram is probably the best option you’re going to find if available.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Min.):It was nice of the Bears to give Trubisky his first start in the friendly confines of Soldier Field, but with a matchup against the stingy Vikings’ defense, that crowd may turn much less friendly on Monday night. Through the first 4 weeks of the season, the average weekly QB12 has put up 18.75 fantasy points. The Vikings are allowing 14.67 points per game to the position, and have faced a gauntlet of Drew Brees (posted QB16 week vs. Vikings), Big Ben at home in Pittsburgh (QB8), JameisWiston (QB19), and Matt Stafford (QB22). To expect a rookie making his first career start to succeed where that group has mostly failed is not wise. Trubisky could be in for a long Monday night.
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 5: @Cle.):While McGuire was impressive last week, I doubt we get an encore in week 5. He was out-snapped 46-19 and out-touched 25-12 by Bilal Powell in that game last Sunday, and he put up 12.9 of his 21.1 PPR points on one play. The Browns have allowed just 3.08 yards per carry and have allowed only 2 carries of 20 or more yards for the year. The odds that McGuire turns limited snaps into another big day aren’t high. Powell is the Jets’ back to play. McGuire should be left benched.
RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 5: vs. KC):Kansas City is allowing just 13.2 PPR points per game to opposing RBs over the past 3 weeks. The Broncos are the best RB defense in the league so far, and they allow 14.4 per game. Foreman only played 29% of the offensive snaps last week in Houston’s blowout win. He would need a Lamar Miller injury or a plus matchup where he can turn limited opportunity into production in order to be playable. He certainly doesn’t get the latter this week, and there’s no way to predict the former.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.):Even if Golladay suits up this week, the Panthers have been pretty good at limiting his bread and butter: the deep ball. They’ve allowed just 8 completions of 20 or more yards through 4 games. Golladay will be a TD-or-bust option this week, and he remains questionable to even play. I’d steer clear of Kenny.
WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 5: @Ind.):While it was nice to see Taylor get targeted 10 times last Sunday, he’s unlikely to see the same volume this week. Garcon isn’t going to be locked down by Patrick Peterson in this one, and the way to beat the Colts is to throw downfield. Taylor has made his living on short passes, with just 8.5 yards per catch. The Colts have allowed 26 completions of 20 or more yards in 4 games. Only the Patriots (19) and Saints (21) have allowed more than 15 other than Indy. Aldrick Robinson or Marquise Goodwin (if he plays) will be the better second option to Garcon in this one.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 5: @Cin.):The connection with Tyrod is still just not there despite Zay playing basically full-time snaps. Taylor completed 11-of-13 throws targeting anyone other than Jones last Sunday, but connected on just 1-of-5 when Zay was the target. That brings the season totals for Jones to 4 catches on 17 targets. Jordan Matthews is expected to miss about a month with an injury, so it’s worth watching to see if Zay’s role increases, but his efficiency has been so bad you can’t play him anywhere this week.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ):The Jets have allowed just 3 catches for 16 yards to opposing tight ends in the past 2 games, and haven’t allowed a tight end TD since week 1. They held Marcedes Lewis without a catch a week ago after the Jags TE caught 3 TD passes in London the week before. Njoku is yet to top 3 catches or 27 yards in any game this season. There’s no reason to start him and hope for a TD.
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 5: @Mia.):Smith is already a TD dart throw at best with Delanie Walker around, and now it sounds like Marcus Mariota will miss this game after the Titans signed Brandon Weeden. The odds Jonnu scores a TD definitely are lower with Matt Cassel under center.
Rookies on Byes: RB SemajePerine, WAS, RB Alvin Kamara, NO
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. LAC):Gallman got on the field last week and scored his first career TD. He was also the Giants most effective runner, but he still put up just 3.8 yards per carry. There’s a chance the Giants don’t let Gallman continue to see the amount of work he did last week with Orleans Darkwa expected back, but I think he’s earned a bigger role. The Chargers have allowed over 100 RB rushing yards in all 4 games this year, and have coughed up over 30 RB PPR points in each of the last 2. Gallman is still really cheap in DFS ($3,900 on DrafKings), and could be a decent flex option in deep leagues this week. The Giants’ shaky run game makes him hard to trust as more than that.
RB Austin Ekeler, LAC (Wk. 5: @NYG):Melvin Gordon has been battling a knee injury and general ineffectiveness, and Ekeler has looked better in his limited touches than Branden Oliver has. Ekeler is only an option as a stash in really deep leagues as he’s played just 12 offensive snaps, but he’s made the most of those snaps. He’s put up 82 yards and a TD on just 6 touches. Oliver, meanwhile, has 78 yards and no scores on 22 touches. If something were to happen to Melvin Gordon, I think there’s a real chance Ekeler would play a really big role. Hopefully his recent play has been impressive enough to warrant a bigger role going forward anyway.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Jax.):No team allows fewer fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers than the Jaguars. Luckily for JJSS, he gets to avoid their top corners since Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant are around. Smith-Schuster has seen 14 targets in the past 3 weeks, and scored 2 TDs. It’s tough to trust him with just 34 yards per game in that stretch and a tough matchup this week, but he’s a stong TD dart throw once again. We all know how much better Big Ben is at home.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 5: @NYG):I mention Williams only as a stash at this point, and only for deeper leagues. The Chargers have gotten decent production out of Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams, but Mike is expected to return and be active this weekend. If he looks good, he could supplant Travis Benjamin as the WR3 before long. The Chargers face two very burnable pass defenses in the next few weeks (Oakland in week 6 and New England in week 8). It might make sense to scoop him up now before people see what he can do.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 5: vs. NE):Howard isn’t running nearly as many routes as teammate Cameron Brate, and he’s only seen 8 targets through 3 games, but there are several factors working in his favor this week. The 4 targets he received last weekend were a season-high, he’s still playing about two-thirds of the Bucs’ offensive snaps, and he gets a choice matchup with the Patriots this week. The Pats are allowing the 4th-most TE fantasy points per game so far, and they have a good enough offense to force Tampa to keep throwing to stay in the game. The floor is pretty low for season-long leagues, but OJ has great upside for DFS tournaments this week, and costs just $200 more than the minimum on DraftKings.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 5: @Ind.):Kittle has been playing almost full-time snaps, and is second on the 49ers in number of pass routes run. It’s only a matter of time before it starts to translate into more targets for the Iowa product. He’s had 14 targets through the first 4 games. The Colts allow the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs per game, so there is a chance his improvement starts this week. I like Kittle’s chances to post his best game of the season. I don’t know what that means for where you would play him, but a 50-yard game isn’t out of the question here.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with those tough lineup decisions and helps you fill in some of your bye spots. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final check before the games to make sure your guys are active. If you take issue with anything above or have any questions or general feedback, feel free to hit me up on twitter to discuss (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by David Biggs
It's always an exciting week in the NFL! Week 5 brought us a little more stability as far as fantasy performances, but there were still plenty of upsets going on in the league. As offensive lines gel a little more and the players that you're starting each week solidify, rankings such as these take on even more importance in setting your lineups each week. Some guys that I'm targeting to start when possible this week (and that I like a little more than other experts) are: Phillip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Tarik Cohen, Wayne Gallman, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, Hunter Henry, and the Detroit Lions. Best of luck this week!
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- Written by Mike Mocerino
Another week in the books and more injuries to many promising fantasy players. Although I do not have Dalvin Cook in any leagues, it is tough to see an exciting young rookie hit the deck. It was a rough week but hang on tight and be sure to check Jim Hutchins' suggested pickups for this week to keep the dream alive.
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Back) – Derek Carr has a transverse process fracture in his back and is out 2-6 weeks according to Rotoworld. This is a tough blow to the Raiders and all of those around Carr will suffer from his absence. Keep monitoring the injury reports and his activity. Amari Pooper and Crabtree owners will have to temper expectations until Carr is healthy. To read more about what the hell a transverse process fracture is, check out this article: http://www.sportsinjuryclinic.net/sport-injuries/low-back-pain/transverse-process-fracture
Marcus Mariota (Hamstring) Déjà vu with two young QB’s going down in the same week again. Last year both Carr and Mariota went down to season-ending injuries and it is not as severe this time around. Mariota is considered Day to Day and the Titans are prepping both Matt Cassel and Mariota to start. Same as Carr, temper your Titans in case Mariota is out this week.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook (ACL) – And just like that one of the most promising rookie backs this year is out for the season. Rough night for a Vikings team that has already been playing without Sam Bradford. Look for Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon to pick up the slack. Murray will be a hot add on the waiver wire this year, but if you are in a PPR league I would be looking to grab McKinnon.
Chris Carson (Leg) – Another promising rookie, another season-ending injury. Carson fractured his leg and has been placed on IR. He was looking to take over that backfield and was a hot add in the weeks leading up to the injury. This backfield just turned ugly with Eddie Lacy, C.J. Prosise, and Thomas Rawls all in the mix. Eddie Lacy is the hungriest of the bunch, but I would proceed with caution.
Ty Montgomery (Ribs) – New broke this morning that TY is dealing with multiple broken ribs. Although this is a painful injury, Montgomery has a shot to play this week and he said he will be fine. If he is starting, it is tough not to play him. This injury makes me nervous though. This could linger throughout the year and he is only one big hit away from leaving the game at any moment. Look for Aaron Jones to pick up the rock if he were to miss time. I like Aaron Jones as an add this week. Not only does he share a name with Rodgers, he has been getting praises from the gun-slinging A-A-Ron stating, “I’ve been a big fan of his since the beginning.”
Ameer Abdullah (Ankle) – Ameer rolled his ankle late in the game after looking rock solid against a stingy Vikings defense. Abdullah should be good to go this week but keep an eye on the injury reports. If he continues to be fed the rock, Abdullah could be a strong RB2 play for weeks to come.
Paul Perkins (Ribs) – I contemplated not even including this injury because the Giants and running backs go together like peanut butter and anchovies. It is worth noting because 4th round rookie Wayne Gallman came in and looked like a competent runner and could see more playing time. He should be worth a look in a backfield I would usually recommend avoiding. The Giants need to shake things up and McAdoo could be coaching for his job. Gallman looked like the best runner on the field and McAdoo would be crazy for not giving the kid a larger role moving forward.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones (Hip) – Julio is no stranger to the injury report and left the game in week 4 and did not return. Thankfully the Falcons are on bye this week and it gives Julio some much-needed rest early in the season. He is not expected to miss any time.
Jordan Matthews (Thumb) – Jordan Matthews' thumb injury does require surgery and he is expected to be out at least a month. Matthews developed some great chemistry with Tyrod Taylor and this will be a blow to the “potent” passing attack of the Bills. I expect Charles Clay to get peppered with targets and Zay Jones to take on a bigger role in the passing game.
Mohamed Sanu (Hamstring) – Sanu is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury. With Sanu out and Julio hobbled, expect Taylor Gabriel and Justin Hardy to pick up more looks.
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
It's the end of another exciting week of football which means it's time to put your claims in for available free agents in your fantasy league to strengthen your team. I'll be going over who I think are the top five picks for you to target this week so don't miss out on them. Good luck!
Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.
5) Thomas Rawls/Eddie Lacy/C.J. Prosise (SEA) - 29%/20%/16% owned - With Chris Carson going down with what appeared to be a season-ending leg injury someone will step up to take his starting role. I have no idea who is going to carry the mail for the Seahawks, but whoever it ends up being will have immediate fantasy relevance. I like them in the order I have listed, but Pete Carroll has been unpredictable in regards to RBs ever since Lynch left town.
4) Deshaun Watson (HOU) - 34% owned - Watson looks like the real deal and has seemingly improved every week this season. What's really good to see for Watson's fantasy outlook is the Texans kept passing even with a huge lead against the Titans last week. Look to add for a bye-week replacement or to stash and play in favorable matchups.
3) Will Fuller V (HOU) - 32% owned - Fuller's season debut was quite productive catching 4 of 6 passes for 35 yards and 2 TDs. The Texans don't really many passing options outside of Hopkins at the moment so Fuller should have a decent weekly floor.
2) Alvin Kamara (NO) - 46% owned - It looks like the Saints have finally come close to a Darren Sproles replacement in Alvin Kamara. Kamara had 5 rushes for 25 yards and 10 catches for 71 yards and a score last week against the Dolphins. He is a must add in PPR formats and is probably flex status in standard leagues. Saints are on a bye this week but if you don't take him now someone else will.
1) Latavius Murray (MIN) - 17% owned - With Dalvin Cook going down with a season-ending ACL tear Murray will step in as the lead back for the Vikings. He will most likely cede passing downs to Jerick McKinnon but will see work on first and second downs as well as receive goal line carries.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
27 Fantasy Points
Greg Zuerlein was an offensive force to be reckoned with on Sunday. He's personally responsible for 23 of his team's 35 points after making 7 field goals and another 2 extra points. His 27 fantasy points make him the 8th highest scorer for the week. It was a hell of a week for kickers, with 7 of them scoring 15 or more points - all of them in the top 42 players of the week. Of these 7 kickers, only Stephen Gostkowski is owned in a significant number of leagues. Young GZ is next, owned in 38% of Yahoo leagues. Looks like there will be a lot of kicker swaps coming up this week.
5 Touchdowns
DeShaun Watson, the rookie QB who apparently couldn't start over Tom Savage week 1, tied a rookie record with 5 touchdowns. Four passing and one rushing TD from Watson lead the way for the Texans, as they scored a franchise record 57 points. Watson has had growing pains, throwing 3 INT's in the last 2 games, however he is clearly getting better with each game. Can we finally put to bed the thought that a bad veteran QB is a better option than putting a rookie or otherwise still-developing QB out there? Indy has figured this out, and it seems like Chicago might join the party this week and start Mitch Trubisky.
39 Touches
Le'Veon Bell looks like he's back to his old self, which is fitting since in the past couple of years he hasn't played until Week 4 anyways. Anyways, that's no way to talk about a guy who won me a couple of fantasy matches this week. Let's get back to the old tradition of gushing about him, shall we? Bell's 35 carries were the second highest in his career, as were the 39 touches. The 144 rush yards are tied for 6th highest total in his career in the regular season. His 30.6 total fantasy points are easily his highest total since we celebrated Le'Veon Bell Week last year.
1 Out of the Top 20
There is only one WR in the top 20 players, Jordy Nelson, and he didn't even play on Sunday. By contrast, there were 7 RB's in the top 20, and yes, we're counting Greg Zuerlein in the top players. Didn't you hear me earlier? This was a good week for RB's, but really it was a down week for higher end WR's. None of them reached 20 points this week in standard scoring, and a couple of the top 5 WR's, Devin Funchess and Will Fuller, both are owned in less than 32% of Yahoo leagues. That's definitely a waiver wire tip for you guys.
146.0 Passer Rating
Andy Dalton's week 4 quarterback rating lead the league, as he went 25 for 30 for 286 yards and 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions. Since the Bengals got a new OC, Dalton's completion percentage is way up, his touchdowns are way up (from 0 to 6) and his INT's are way down (from 4 to 0). It's been a large swing for the Bengals this season, who can finally feel good after getting a very convincing win last week. In comparison, the team that intercepted Dalton on the way to getting a shutout in week 1, the Ravens - yes, the very same Ravens - have yet to recover from getting pantsed by the Jaguars in London just a week ago. The Ravens looked awful again against a Steelers team that has looked very good, but also lost to Mike Glennon, a guy who is about to get benched. Maybe the only consistent thing we can find in the AFC north is that the Browns are still 0-4. The Browns losing is like comfort food to unstable Ravens, Steelers and Bengals fans.
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- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and over/ unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering souls at ease. In this weekly column, I'll reveal my visions and picks for every NFL game, as well as pen the occasional article with words of advice and knowledge on sportsbook strategies. But hey, if for some reason any of Nick's Picks let you down, I'm cool with you telling your bookie it was all my fault. Yeah... right.
'WEEK OF THE RUNNING MAN' - And by that, I mean you'll be running from your bookie due to the irregular and inane outcomes of week 3's match-ups. I had warned that week 2 was going to be hard to predict, but most of the games played out as they should have. I really don't know what happened last weekend, but it made me sick to my stomach. Chin up, there are weeks like this just as there are weeks where all your picks will click. Even though you have a sub-par week, there is no reason to get rattled. Sometimes a down week will get players to lose confidence in their methods, leading to a changing of strategies. This could be dangerous, unless your system isn't quite perfected yet. Okay, now for a little nugget of advice: I always make at least one weekly parlay that consists of the 3 most obvious safest picks on the spread. Then, I make that wager one of my higher dollar tickets. Most of the the time, these risks pay off and you'll come out ahead at season's end. BTW, do not lay down much on tonight's Bears/ Packers game. Those are always too close too call and not worth the gamble.
CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS - GB -7 | GB -344 | OVER 44
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS - NO -3 | NO -151 | OVER 50.5
DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS - MIN -1.5 | MIN -109 | OVER 42.5
JACKSON JAGUARS @ NEW YORK JETS - JAC -3 | JAC -164 | OVER 38
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS - CIN -3 | CIN -161 | OVER 41.5
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS - PIT -3 | PIT -153 | OVER 42
TENNESSEE TITANS @ HOUSTON TEXANS - HOU +1 1/2 | +109 | OVER 43.5
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ DALLAS COWBOYS - LAR +6 | DAL -257 | UNDER 48
BUFFALO BILLS @ ATLANTA FALCONS - BUF +8 | ATL -385 | UNDER 48.5
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - NE -9 | NE -431 | UNDER -49.5
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS - LAC -2 | LAC -124 | OVER 48
NEW YORK GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - NYG +3 | NYG +136 | OVER 44.5
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers @ ARIZONA CARDINALS - ARI -6.5 | ARI -278 | OVER 44.5
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS - DEN -3 | DEN -149 | UNDER 46
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - IND +13 | SEA -917 | OVER 41.5
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - KC -7 | KC -282 | UNDER 49.5
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS:
SPREAD 5-10
MONEYLINE 8-7
TOTAL U/O 9-6
YTD RESULTS:
SPREAD 20-26
MONEYLINE 29-17
TOTAL U/O 21-25
- Details
- Written by Matt Cochrane
As predicted, last week was a doozy for confidence pool picks. Point totals usually reserved for bye week wins were taking down pools everywhere. There were multiple touchdown favorites outright losing and others narrowly escaping with victories. I'm looking at you New England. Too much Stress! Sadly the Pittsburgh Steelers let me and their country down with their on-field display against the Chicago Bears, leaving me with only one remaining entry to the survivor pool. Fortunately 91 other members picked the Steelers and a total of 218 entries were eliminated by the time the games were over. The Dolphins flop against the New York Jets was the next biggest killer, claiming 71 entries.
That brings me to the Green Bay Packers. They trailed the Bengals 21-7 at halftime and required extra time to come back and win by a field goal 27-24 as 227 survivor entrants collectively let out their breaths. Initially the Packers are who I was looking at picking this week as they host the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football as a touchdown favorite. But I actually think the Bears might be a better team than the Bengals. And who am I kidding, I will be watching this game at a Chicago sports bar in San Diego with my fellow ex-Illini. I can't be in there cheering the Packers like some turncoat.
That brings me to this week’s pick, the Seattle Seahawks. They opened up as the weeks biggest favorite at -13.5 against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football. The Colts offense performed better than I thought capable last week with Andrew Luck out. But, let’s remember it was vs the Browns and they barely hung on to the victory. The Seahawks have struggled on offense so far, especially establishing a running game. This week they will get both of those things corrected and continue the years-long tradition of running backs beating up the Colts defense.
My final suggestion would be to avoid the Arizona Cardinals. They could be widely picked as 8.5 point favorites against the 9'ers, but I think the Cardinals are done. The team missed their window and will be in rebuild mode this offseason. San Francisco is on a long week and Arizona on a short one, be careful of the upset.
Cheers
Drink Five
- Details
- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was certainly an interesting one. Between all of the anthem protest drama, there were some intriguing football games. Almost nothing went according to plan, which should have been predictable with 10 road favorites (6 of them lost). The chaos started right away on Thursday night with an unexpected Rams-49ers shootout that was full of fantasy goodness. Sunday stunners included the Ravens getting housed in London with Joe Flacco throwing for 28(!) yards, the Steelers being topped in OT by a Bears team that completed just 1(!) pass to a WR the entire game, Case Keenum throwing for 369 yards in an easy Viking win, the tanking Jets demolishing the Dolphins, and the Lions losing on an incorrect call that cost them the opportunity for a final play. It was a whirlwind. If your team was one of the ones that got stunned, hopefully your fantasy team came out of week 3 in better shape than your real one. I wonder what week 4 will give us for an encore. Take note that for the players listed within the same category at the same position, they will be listed in the order I would rank them. Any point totals listed will be PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s take a look at what to expect from your rookies this week…
Rookies to Start:
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): There’s a down week coming at some point for Hunt, but you obviously have to keep riding the wave right now. Washington isn’t a matchup to fear, and Hunt played a season-high 70% of the snaps last week against the Chargers. His role is getting bigger, not smaller. Andy Reid also said this week that he has no plans to scale back the rookie’s workload. Plug him in as an RB1 again.
RB Dalvin Cook, MIN (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Cook is probably licking his chops this week as he watches film of Devonta Freeman dismantling the Lions’ defense last Sunday. He’s coming off his best game as a pro, and the Lions have been coughing up 150 scrimmage yards per week to opposing RBs. With his usage, Dalvin is a borderline RB1 this week.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 4: @NE): As expected, CMC’s receiving usage blew up against the New Orleans defense with Greg Olsen out and Kelvin Benjamin leaving the game early. The Saints had allowed the most receiving yards to RBs going into that game, and that hasn’t changed after McCaffrey hung 101 receiving yards on them. The team that has allowed the 2nd-most is the New England Patriots, who McCaffrey faces this week. He should have a great receiving floor and easily be an RB2 this week in PPR leagues. He’s more of a low-end RB2 in standard leagues, but one with big upside.
RB Chris Carson, SEA (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): Any doubts about Carson’s role were put to bed last week and Thomas Rawls played just 1 snap. I’d expect Rawls to play a few more this week, but that’s mostly because C.J. Prosise has already been ruled out for the Seahawks and Carson isn’t going to play 100% of the snaps. The Colts are allowing just 3.2 yards per carry so far, but they’ve allowed the 11th-most RB points and Seattle opened as an 11.5-point favorite this week. The game script should very much in Carson’s favor, and he should be a rock solid RB2 option this week.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 4: @NYJ): Even after limiting the Dolphins running backs to 21 yards on 14 carries, and just 7.8 PPR points last weekend, the Jets have still allowed more RB points per game than any other team in the league, and a 4.1 ypc average on the season. Perhaps the Jets’ week 3 improvement is a sign of things to come, but even if it is Fournette should still manage an RB2 day on volume alone. The upside is big in this one if the Jags get ahead early.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): Watson impressed last week against a Patriots D that typically feasts on rookie QBs. The Titans have allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game after being shredded by Russ Wilson last weekend, and DeAndre Hopkins should have a great shot to breakout and help out his quarterback. The Titans have allowed 22-243-2 to opposing number one WRs through 3 weeks. With the extra boost that Watson’s rushing gives him, he’s a borderline option for 2-QB leagues this week. There’s always a low floor with a rookie passer in a run-heavy scheme, but the ceiling Watson showed last week was nice.
RB Joe Mixon, CIN (Wk. 4: @Cle.): Week 3 was a promising one for Mixon. He may finally be breaking out of the 3-man timeshare the Bengals started with now that they have a new coordinator. Mixon played 56% of the offensive snaps and saw 62% of the running back touches in week 3. OC Bill Lazor seems to be turning the backfield over to him, and I expect him to play better with extended opportunities that will allow him to get in rhythm. The increased work is just a one week sample, and the Browns have been decent against the run so far this year, so there is some risk. If the increased usage continues this week, he should finish in the RB2 range.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 4: @GB): If you own Cohen in a non-PPR league, I’d probably lean against using him this week. This stacks up as more of a Howard game with the Packers allowing 97 RB rushing yards per game compared to 29 RB receiving yards. Then again, last week stacked up as a Cohen game and it was Howard who blew up. For PPR leagues, Cohen remains a steady flex option with big play upside. The Bears completed just 1 pass to a wide receiver last week, and Mike Glennon clearly has a connection with Cohen. I’d still expect him to be peppered with targets in a game the Bears should be trailing in as a 7.5-point road underdog.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Sammy Watkins and Tavon Austin are both dealing with concussions this week, so Kupp should see plenty of targets if Watkins can’t play. He disappointed last week with just 2-17 on 2 targets despite the team’s gaudy passing numbers, but I’d look for a bounce back against Dallas. The Cowboys are allowing the 6th-most points per game to opposing WRs. Cooper is on the flex radar in PPR leagues.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 4: @Min.): It’s been a quiet couple weeks for the sax man (Kenny G). He’s always going to have a bit of a boom-or-bust element with the way the Lions use him, but I kind of like his chances to boom this week. The Vikings have allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game (44.3) despite strong play from top CB Xavier Rhodes. I’d expect it to be Marvin Jones who tangles with Rhodes most often (Rhodes is unlikely to go to the slot to cover Tate). Kenny still has a really low floor, as evidenced by the 3-33 totals he’s put up in the past 2 games, but I love his upside this week.
TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 4: @TB): Engram seems to have established a pretty reliable 4-40 floor so far, which should make him a borderline weekly TE1 in PPR leagues. He’s been the TE14, TE9, and TE14 in PPR in the first 3 weeks. Tampa has been solid against TEs so far, but their defense is dealing with some injuries this week and Engram has seen 7 targets in each of the past 2 games. Engram should be a safer bet than some of the other streaming options available (I’m looking at you Hunter Henry).
Rookies to Sit:
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): I’m not as confident in Kizer’s outlook this week as I was for week 3. The Bengals struggled to contain the Packers’ passing last week, but Aaron Rodgers is special. Prior to that game, Cincy held the Ravens and Texans to a combined 246 passing yards and 1 score. They did allow a 50-yard rushing score to Deshaun Watson, but those can be kind of fluky. I don’t expect a high volume passing game from Kizer, so even with his rushing upside it will be tough for him to return QB2 value this week.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 4: @Mia.): There is still a little upside here for DFS tournaments, but the matchup for Kamara this week isn’t ideal. It’s a small sample size, but through 2 games the Dolphins have allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game. They’ve allowed just 3.25 yards per carry and 3.5 receptions per game to opposing backs. They’ll also be playing angry after an embarrassing loss in New York last weekend. It’s probably best to avoid rolling the dice on Kamara this week.
RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): Foreman made two nice plays in the passing game Sunday, putting up 65 yards on the 2 catches, and the Titans have coughed up 175 receiving yards to opposing backs so far. This doesn’t mean much for Foreman though. His receiving plays should be viewed as outliers, not the norm. For now, this is still Lamar Miller’s job. There has been a lot of talk that Foreman has been outperforming Miller so far, but Miller is averaging 3.7 yards per carry to Foreman’s 3.3, and Lamar out-snapped D’Onta 50-17 in week 3. Foreman will continue to get change of pace work, but not enough to make him a viable option this week.
RB Semaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 4: @KC): It was a little bit surprising that Rob Kelley sat out last weekend with injury, but Perine didn’t do much with his starting opportunity. He totaled 49 yards on 19 carries, and added a 6-yard catch, but he also lost a fumble. He’s now at 2.9 yards per carry on 40 totes. Even if Kelley were to miss another game, Perine is a low-end flex play with little to no receiving upside.
WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (Wk. 4: @NE): The Patriots have allowed at least 32.9 PPR points to the opposing WR group each week so far, and Carolina is running low on WRs at this point with KB questionable. There is a little upside for Samuel, but the Panthers have struggled to show they know how to use him and have struggled to get their passing game clicking in general. If Benjamin sits, Curtis might be worth a roll of the dice in really deep leagues, but I’m struggling to trust much in the Carolina passing game at this point aside from McCaffrey.
WR Chris Godwin, TB (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): It was nice to see Godwin get involved a little bit in game 2, putting up a 3-44 line on 3 targets as TB tried to play catch-up. The Giants likely won’t score enough to keep Tampa throwing all game again, and New York has allowed just 22.6 PPR points per game to opposing WRs. Most of those points are earmarked for Mike Evans and D-Jax.
WR Zay Jones, BUF (Wk. 4: @Atl.): LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay each have more catches on the year than Zay has targets. Until that trend changes, there isn’t much reason to even consider Zay in your lineups.
WR John Ross, CIN (Wk. 4: @Cle.): Ross looks unlikely to play this week. Even if he is active, I’d like to see him actually do something on the field before I put him in any lineups.
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 4: @Hou.): With Corey Davis out with injury last week, Jonnu played about 65% of the Titans’ offensive snaps, and scored his second TD in as many weeks. He also has just 3 catches in those 2 weeks, and gets a tougher matchup in this one. The Texans rank 13th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat on throws to tight ends, and they’ve allowed just 4 catches for 60 yards to the position in the two games where they didn’t face Gronk. This is probably not the best week to use Smith as a TD dart throw.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Howard has played about 65% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps each week, but has just 2 catches and 4 targets to show for it. He’s being used primarily as a blocker for now. Until that changes, there’s no place for him in your lineup.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 4: @Ari.): The Cardinals just held an ageless Jason Witten to one catch for 3 yards on Monday night, and Kittle has 3 catches for 21 yards in the past 2 weeks combined. It’s not a good spot to consider him.
TE Gerald Everett, LAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): You would think his outlook would be better this week if the Rams are without Sammy Watkins, but he has been slowly ceding playing time to Derek Carrier. His snap count has gone from 29 to 16 to 11 in the first 3 games. He might still make a downfield play in this one, but it’s hard to rely on a player who isn’t on the field much.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 4: @TB): This is mostly just a hunch, but Gallman may get some opportunity this week if Orleans Darkwa is out and Paul Perkins gets off to a slow start. The Bucs are dealing with a myriad of maladies on their defense right now: Lavonte David, Kwon Alexander, Chris Baker, and Gerald McCoy are all banged up, and Tampa just allowed 33 fantasy points to the Vikings’ running backs. Gallman is only worth considering as a DFS punt play, and he’s a risky one at that. He played zero snaps last week. If Darkwa dresses, I’d take a long look at Shane Vereen for DFS lineups. He could have a strong day.
RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 4: @SD): Clement likely has little to no value for this week, but with Sproles done for the year he’s worth a stash in really deep leagues. He’s the primary backup to LeGarrette Blount, and he put up 22 yards and a score in just 9 snaps and 6 carries a week ago. The Eagles backfield is still very much in flux in the wake of the Sproles injury.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 4: @Bal.): The Ravens have allowed the 5th fewest WR points per game so far this year, but they’ve allowed 53.2 points to opposing tight ends in the last 2 weeks including 4 TDs. The Steelers will likely be using JJSS as a de-facto tight end if Jesse James is out with injury. He’s been playing plenty of snaps and has averaged 5 targets per game in the past 2 weeks. I like his chances for a TD in this one.
WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 4: @Ari.): Taylor played almost 50% of the week 3 snaps and was targeted in the red zone, scoring his first career TD. He also was the victim of a terrible OPI penalty on the 49ers final drive. The Cardinals have struggled against WRs so far, allowing the 5th-most WR points per game to them. The 49ers are a 6-point underdog, and Pierre Garcon could be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. Taylor has the chance for a really nice game.
WR Josh Reynolds, LAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): This is contingent on Watkins and Tavon being out with their concussions. He needs both out to see the snaps needed to produce. If both are out, I’d expect Reynolds to play in 3-wide sets with he and Robert Woods on the outside and Cooper Kupp in the slot. The Cowboys have been bleeding points to WRs the past 2 weeks (46.4/game). There is a chance that J-Rey surprises in this one.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Njoku is probably a TD or bust option, but the Bengals are not as tough a matchup as their #5 rank at limiting TE points would suggest. They faced Baltimore in week 1, who only threw 17 passes all game (3 to TEs), and then played the Texans in week 2 who were missing ALL of their tight ends with concussions. In week 3 they allowed 2-52-1 to Lance Kendricks. The Bengals rank just 24th in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs, and Njoku has hit paydirt each of the last 2 weeks. Limited snaps and splitting time with DeValve have hurt his output, but the Browns don’t have a ton of other red zone weapons.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the tougher lineup decisions involving these guys. If you have any questions, arguments, or opinions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
- Details
- Written by Tad Bukowski
Every year I like to take some time to remind everyone of a little clause that is in almost all season-long confidence pools.
That exception is that the lowest score of the season is removed from your total points in a last-ditch effort to give you a little boost. I usually write about this when we have a bad week.
Didn’t really think I would be writing about it in the first quarter of the season though! Is what it is though, and luckily, for the most part, everyone had a bad week.
That’s why they play the game, and that’s why the game is great!
Week 4 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – SEATTLE over Indianapolis – The Colts looked impressive for the first time this season last week … … … against the Browns … … … against the Browns.
15 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – The week kicks off with the biggest rivalry in the game. The Bears looked good last week, but they don’t have the defense to contain an Aaron Rodgers air assault.
14 – NEW ENGLAND over Carolina – How big of a nose dive have the Panthers and Cam Newton taken? A game in Foxboro isn’t exactly the best way to fix their problems.
13 – ATLANTA over Buffalo – The Falcons look primed to make a return to the Super Bowl this year. A home game against Buffalo won’t slow them down a bit.
12 – DALLAS over Los Angeles Rams – Dak Prescott won the game for the ‘Boys last week, now it’s Zeke’s turn. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that EZEKIAL ELLIOT WILL HAVE HIS BREAKOUT GAME WITH OVER 150 YARDS RUSHING.
11 – ARIZONA over San Francisco – The 49ers looked impressive last week. But even with how impressive they looked they could beat the Rams. Good luck on the road against the Cardinals.
10 – KANSAS CITY over Washington – Boy the Chiefs are good!
9 – TAMPA BAY over New York Giants – Why would you have confidence in the Giants? Put 11 guys on Beckham and let the rest of the Giants’ offense beat you and your gold.
8 – MINNESOTA over Detroit – The NFC North is going to be a bit of a barn-burner this year. A win here will go a long way for these two teams. Lucky for the Vikings they are the home team this week.
7 – HOUSTON over Tennessee – DeShaun Watson is for real. He showed that he could maintain himself and almost beat Tom Brady on the road. It was a perfect warmup for a big early season divisional matchup this week.
6 – MIAMI over New Orleans – It feels weird to put a team that was just dominated by the Jets to win this week. Call it the “because they’re the home team” win of the week.
5 – BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh – Big Ben is hard to stop when the Steelers have a home game. On the road…eh…not so much.
4 – DENVER over Oakland – This hurts me to say, but after their performance last Sunday night, it’s hard to have confidence in the Raiders in such a pivotal road game.
3 – Philadelphia over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Carson Wentz is on the verge of being a perennial Pro Bowl quarterback. Going across the country to get a big win will help persuade voters (I hate fan voting!)
2 – CLEVELAND over Cincinnati – When you think the Browns are going to win a game, they should ALWAYS be on the one point line. That is unless…
1 – NEW YORK JETS over Jacksonville – …you also think that the Jets are going to win in the same week.