Fantasy Football / NFL
- Details
- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
15 Passing TD's
Through 6 games, Texans rookie and frequent source of material for this column, Deshaun Watson has thrown 15 passing touchdowns, not to mention the two he's gotten via rushing. This total matches the 2016 Houston Texans entire season. Having the exact same receiving core makes this even more impressive, though you could argue that there are fewer weapons this season, with all their TE's injured. Watson has been beyond impressive and is set to crush all the rookie passing records and turn in the best rookie QB season ever, passing guys like Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Dan Marino. This hype train could roll all the way to Canton.
3 Points or Less
The San Francisco 49ers have lost their last 5 games by 3 points or less, a feat that is so rare it makes you think they should play the lottery, or perhaps, whatever is the opposite of the lottery. Yesterday even saw the benching of Brian Hoyer, destroyer of his own teams, for C.J. Beathard. Beathard, of course, is the grandson of Bobby Beathard, former NFL GM. Why the team calling the game had to announce this every 5 minutes is beyond me, but clearly it's important and must be repeated as often as possible. C.J. Beathard will soon be known as the guy who gets benched for whoever the 49ers sign next season (Kirk Cousins, anybody?).
25.40 Fantasy Points
No more old man jokes for the Purple Jesus (just blasphemous ones, please). Adrian Peterson was his old self, racking up 134 yards and two touchdowns against the Bucs on Sunday. Who needs to catch the ball when you have Larry Fitzgerald doing all that for you. Peterson averaged 5.2 yards per carry and was explosive from the very start of the game, putting up more yards on the opening drive than the Cardinals averaged all season. The 160 yards the Cardinals got on the ground yesterday is only 99 short of their season total going into that game. Did Larry Fitzgerald and Adrian Peterson just become best friends?
25+ Fantasy Points
Move over Quarterbacks, the Running Backs are once again dominating the fantasy football scoreboard. Sure, Kirk Cousins led the way with 28.8, but the next 4 highest scoring players were RB's, and some familiar high draft picks as well. Melvin Gordon, Adrian Peterson, Le'Veon Bell and Mark Ingram all scored at least 25 points AND each had at least 25 carries. Maybe the talent available at this position is dictating a return to the bell cow back. I for one, welcome the return of the workhorse RB to fantasy football. There were 11 RB's that saw at least 20 touches in Week 6, led by Jordan Howard's 36 carries and 1 reception. As we head into fall and bad weather football, I expect to see even more work for running backs.
2.77 Inches per Carry
Thursday night was a rough one for the Carolina Panthers, and their running backs in particular. With 13 total carries, Christian McCaffrey, Fozzy Whittaker and Jonathan Stewart netted only 1 yard, good for an average of 2.77 inches per carry. A less classy organization might make lewd jokes about proudly carrying 2.77 inches, or letting the running game grow and not necessarily letting it show, but not us. No sir, I don't care what kind of flaccid running game you bring to Thursday night football, we won't make you the butt of the joke at the end of an article. Not us here at drinkfive, we have way more class than that. Or not. Penis.
- Details
- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and over/ unders in the NFL? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your precarious souls at ease. 18 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on my resume, as well as currently playing in my 21st season of fantasy football(definitely a self-proclaimed pioneer). But enough about Cool Hand Luke. In this weekly column, I'll briefly recap some of the past week's sportsbook outcomes, moods and reflections, as well as offer words of advice and knowledge on betting strategies. Additionally, for every game, I'll have my picks for the spread, moneyline and under/ over ready to go. And if you're good(or I just happen to be feeling generous), I'll offer up one of my tantalizing, high-odds 'Nicks Picks', a ticket too good to be true. Anyway, if for some reason any of Nick's Picks let you down, I'm cool with you telling your bookie it was all my fault. Yeah... right.
'SONIC THE HEDGING HOG' - Sometimes there is a week in the NFL schedule that have match-ups and lines that may spook you out a little... or a lot, depending on your current streak and budget. Well, if you come across one of those weeks and are feeling some uncertainty, there is a safer route you can take when making your tickets. 'Hedging' is a method of wagering which involves betting on the opposite outcome of a ticket already placed. This will almost guarantee(not every time) a minimum amount of winnings if you're looking to score a low-risk, yet low profit, payout. Two team parlays are my favorite way to go when hedging. The chances of hitting are reduced, but if you find the good lines of the week, they're worth the risk. Remember, when trying out a new 'system', always wager modestly until you feel you can make the 'method' work for you more times than not.
I want to throw a shout out to New England, Detroit, Oakland, Buffalo and Arizona for their futility in allowing me to win me big mutuals last week. Yeah, right. Other than winning anything substantial, last Sunday's results were actually not that bad. I guess you can't be upset if you finish in the black and have cookies in the jar for the coming week's games.
NICK'S PICK OF THE WEEK - 2 GAME PARLAY | GBP -3 | HOU -10
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CAROLINA PANTHERS - CAR -3 | CAR -148 | OVER 44
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS - NEP -9.5 | NEP -400 | UNDER 47.5
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS - GBP -3 | GBP -157 | OVER 46.5
DETROIT LIONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - DET +4.5 | DET +185 | OVER 50
CHICAGO BEARS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS - CHI +6.5 | BAL -272 | OVER 39.5
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ HOUSTON TEXANS - HOU -10 | HOU -385 | OVER 47
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS - WAS -11 | WAS -505 | OVER 46.5
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ ATLANTA FALCONS - MIA +13 | ATL -685 | UNDER 46
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS - TBB -1 | TBB -116 | OVER 45.5
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - JAX -2.5 | JAX -140 | UNDER 42
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS - BETTING ON HOLD DUE TO INJURY
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - KCC -4 | KCC -210 | OVER 47
NEW YORK GIANTS @ DENVER BRONCOS - DEN -11.5 | DEN -565 | UNDER 38.5
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS - BETTING ON HOLD DUE TO INJURY
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS:
SPREAD 8-4
MONEYLINE 6-6
TOTAL O/U 6-6
YTD RESULTS:
SPREAD 38-36
MONEYLINE 44-30
TOTAL O/U 36-38
- Details
- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully the fantasy gods have smiled upon your teams for the first 5 weeks of the season. Now that we’re this deep into the season, we’re starting to get a better picture of which teams are legit, which teams are not, and which teams are the Giants. Sorry Giants fans, it’s going to be a long few months, but you should get to see a bunch of Evan Engram! As far as the rookies go, week 5 featured the debut of one heralded rookie QB, and the benching of another. Mitch-a-palooza didn’t quite go according to plan for the Bears on Monday night, but Trubisky did show some flashes that will give Bears fans hope. DeShone Kizer, on the other hand, needs a few weeks off to get his head clear. He may eventually get the starting job back from Kevin Hogan, but the turnovers were just getting to be too much. Both Kizer and Trubisky have nothing on Deshaun Watson at this point. Aside from the QBs, we also got breakout games from Aaron Jones and George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey’s first TD, and ho-hum RB1 days out of Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette. Let’s check in on what to expect from week 6:
Rookies to Start:
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Watson has been throwing straight fire the past few weeks even if the Texans aren’t putting up a ton of wins as a result. In his 4 starts this year, Deshaun has been the QB7, QB15, QB1, and QB1. The Cleveland Browns allow the 4th-most QB points per game (all ranks and point totals listed are in PPR scoring), so the good times should keep rolling this week. I’m not sure there’s another 4 or 5 TD game in the offing this week, but Watson might be worth his price tag in DFS lineups. It would be hard to sit Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees for the rookie, but I would rank only Tom Brady higher than him for this week.
RB Kareem Hunt, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Pit.): Obviously you weren’t considering sitting Hunt this week, but this is a week you should consider paying up for him in DFS lineups. The Steelers’ run defense has been shredded by Leonard Fournette, Jordan Howard and Dalvin Cook in the past 4 weeks. They gave up over 200 rushing yards and 2 TDs to both the Jaguars and Bears RBs. Hunt has been held scoreless in each of the past 2 games, but I expect him to find the end zone at least once in this one. He is the premier running back play of the week.
RB Leonard Fournette, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Just like Hunt, Fournette is a weekly RB1 who you wouldn’t think of sitting in season long leagues, but also someone you should be getting into your DFS lineups this week. I’d have Hunt as the top RB play this week, but Fournette isn’t far behind. The Rams had allowed a top-6 RB performance in 3 straight contests before facing the Seahawks’ mess of a backfield last weekend, and even after that game still allow the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to RBs. Fournette has seen 20+ touches in 4 of the past 5 games, so his volume is pretty much a given. Leonard could put up a monster game this week.
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ (Wk. 6: vs. NE): The stars have aligned for McGuire this week. Bilal Powell and Matt Forte should both miss this game, and the Patriots allow the most running back fantasy points per game and rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. There is a little hesitation from the fact that the Jets are 10-point underdogs at home, and will face a negative game script all day, but that shouldn’t be too big a worry. McGuire has shown receiving ability at the NFL level so far, and he caught 130 passes in his college career. Also, the Patriots have allowed the 3rd most receptions, most receiving yards and most receiving TDs to opposing RBs. If the Jets get blown out, McGuire’s receiving usage should still get him through to an RB2 day. He’s a great value in DFS at just $4,600 on DraftKings.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Aaron Jones, GB (Wk. 6: @Min.): Jones’s status hinges largely on whether or not Ty Montgomery is able to play this week. Updates on Thursday were that TyMo took some hits in practice and that his ribs ‘felt fine’ afterward. He’s been wearing a flak jacket in practice and has said it isn’t uncomfortable. There has been some speculation that Jones will take over as the lead back on early downs from local beat writers given the success he’s had the past couple weeks and the struggles Montgomery had running between the tackles early on. I’m not sure I buy this. I think this is still TyMo’s backfield for now. If both guys play, I’d consider each guy a flex option, but the matchup is a tough one. The Vikings have allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game so far. If Montgomery sits again, consider Jones a solid RB2 option. This offense has been too good to run from this matchup if there’s a clear lead back.
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): McCaffrey has been pretty much an RB2/flex performer each week, with weekly finishes ranging anywhere from RB10 to RB36. We haven’t seen much of ceiling here yet, but the floor has been fairly steady. The matchup this week is somewhat favorable for CMC. The Eagles have allowed just the 7th-fewest RB points per game so far, but they’ve also allowed nearly as many RB receiving yards as they have RB rushing yards (239 rushing, 228 receiving). McCaffrey remains a PPR flex play.
RB Alvin Kamara, NO (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): I’d lean toward playing Kamara in PPR formats this week. The Adrian Peterson trade doesn’t have a huge impact on Alvin, but it may get him a small uptick in snaps and gives the backfield more clarity in general. The Lions allow the 17th-most RB points per game, but 58.5% of the PPR points they’ve allowed have come from receiving numbers. Kamara should be a solid flex play in PPR leagues.
RB Semaje Perine, WAS (Wk. 6: vs. SF): With Rob Kelley likely out this week, Perine should get the bulk of the early down work in a plus matchup. The 49ers have allowed the 3rd-most points per game to opposing backs, but I’d still only view Perine as a low-end RB2 or flex option. He’s struggled when given extended opportunities this year. In weeks 2 & 3, he totaled 116 rushing yards on 40 carries (2.9 ypc), and both of those games were against teams in the bottom half of the league in run defense DVOA. The 49ers rank 14th. Chris Thompson is the Washington running back who should benefit the most from the matchup.
TE Evan Engram, NYG (Wk. 6: @Den.): Engram unexpectedly put up a goose egg last week, but he should be peppered with targets this week with Brandon Marshall, Odell Beckham Jr., and Sterling Shepard all sidelined. The Broncos will probably pay him some extra defensive attention this week as New York’s de-facto number 1 target in the passing game, but tight end has been where the Broncos’ defense has been most vulnerable. They have allowed the 6th-most tight end point per game, and rank 26st in pass defense DVOA on throws that target the tight end. Engram should rebound and post a low-end TE1 game, even if he doesn’t find the end zone.
TE George Kittle, SF (Wk. 6: @Was.): Kittle played only about half as many snaps in week 5 as he did in week 4, but he still managed to post a breakout game with 7-83-1 on 9 targets. It’s hard to imagine the 49ers wouldn’t give him more looks going forward. I wouldn’t expect that kind of game every week, but he should be able to flirt with TE1 numbers in PPR formats again this week. The 49ers face off with a Washington team that allows the 3rd-most TE points per game and ranks 31st on pass defense DVOA on throws to the tight end. He’s a decent streaming option if you’re without Charles Clay, Jimmy Graham or Jason Witten this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mitch Trubisky, CHI (Wk. 6: @Bal.): Trubisky looked impressive at times during his Monday Night Football debut, but ultimately he didn’t have enough weapons to finish off a win and made a bad rookie mistake on a late interception. He should clean up some of the mistakes as he gains more experience, but the weapons issue isn’t going anywhere this season. Mitch gets an awful matchup this week. The Ravens at home have been tough on QBs, allowing only 2 of the past 10 QBs they’ve faced in Baltimore to top 12 fantasy points dating back to the beginning of last season. I don’t think Mitch makes it 3 of 11.
RB Marlon Mack, IND (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Mack put up a strong performance last week in his first game back from injury against the 49ers, scoring a TD and setting up the game-winning field goal. It should lead to more work going forward, but that doesn’t mean you should start plugging him into lineups this week. He should be rostered in most leagues, but I still expect Frank Gore to lead the way in snaps and touches, especially after the comments from Chuck Pagano today that Mack is still a ‘work in progress.’ The Titans are also not a great matchup for RBs, allowing the 13th-fewest RB fantasy points per game.
RB Matt Brieda, SF (Wk. 6: @Was.): Like Mack above, Brieda should be rostered in most leagues, but not plugged into lineups just yet. The 49ers announced they’ll be employing a ‘hot hand’ approach at RB going forward, but I would expect Hyde to still be the better option on a weekly basis. There might not be enough production to make Brieda useful this week even if he does get the hot hand. Washington allows the 12th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 8th in run defense DVOA. They are also a 10-point favorite in this game. Brieda’s got an uncertain workload, a tough matchup, and likely a negative game script. That’s not a recipe for fantasy success.
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI (Wk. 6: @Bal.): With a fully healthy Benny Cunningham around, Cohen’s snap share has slipped to under 30% the past 2 weeks, and he hasn’t been making the most of the opportunities he’s been getting. He looked indecisive with the ball on Monday night, dancing around too much and causing negative plays for the offense. I would like to see his snap count start to go back up before considering him in lineups for season long leagues again. His game-breaking ability still gives him a ceiling as a DFS tournament play, but at $5,100 in DraftKings, that’s a lot of cost with that risk. The Ravens aren’t a great matchup for him either. They’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest RB receptions so far this season.
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG (Wk. 6: @Den.): The Broncos’ defense has been dominant so far, and the Giants’ offense is falling apart with injuries. The Broncos allow the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and Gallman will have to split RB snaps with Orleans Darkwa and Shane Vereen. He’s been the most effective rusher the Giants have had so far, but that doesn’t mean much in a game where the team’s implied total is 13.5 points (and I would actually bet the Giants end up under that).
RB Corey Clement, PHI (Wk. 6: @Car.): Clement’s snap percentage has increased each week this season from 0 in week 1 to 1%, 9%, 24%, and 34% since, but his touch totals haven’t really spiked and Philly seems content with a 3-man timeshare. Even with Wendell Smallwood out in week 5, the Eagles found a new 3rd guy getting Kenjon Barner 17 offensive snaps. Until we see an increase in usage, it’s hard to trust Clement anywhere.
WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (Wk. 6: @Jax.): Only 4 wide receivers all year have made it 50 yards in a game against Jacksonville, and only Antonio Brown last week has made it to 60. The only one who got to 50 yards as primarily a slot receiver was JuJu Smith-Schuster last weekend. Jacksonville has also allowed just 1 TD to opposing WRs. I doubt Kupp breaks those trends. The volume will likely be low enough that he needs a TD for a productive day, and the odds of that TD aren’t great.
WR Curtis Samuel, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): His role clearly hasn’t increased as a result of the injury to Greg Olsen. The Eagles allow the 2nd-most WR fantasy points per game, but Samuel has just 4 catches on the season, and I don’t expect that number to go up much this week.
WR Trent Taylor, SF (Wk. 6: @Was.): This might have actually been a nice spot to use Taylor in DFS tournaments if Josh Norman were healthy. Taylor has seen increased usage when Garcon faces a shutdown corner. He was peppered with 10 targets a couple weeks ago when Pierre was shadowed by Patrick Peterson, but he hasn’t topped 4 in any other game. I don’t expect that to change this week, and with the short distance targets he gets, you need volume for him to be useful.
WR Travis Rudolph, NYG (Wk. 6: @Den.): The Giants just signed this Florida State product off the street this week and may already be inserting him into 3-WR sets as soon as this Sunday assuming Sterling Shepard can’t go. He’s worth keeping an eye on over the next couple weeks with the Giants’ pass catching group decimated by injuries, but there is no New York WR who should be anywhere near your lineups this week with a daunting matchup with the Broncos on tap.
TE David Njoku, CLE (Wk. 6: @Hou.): The switch from DeShone Kizer to Kevin Hogan may lead to better results for Njoku, but I would take a wait & see approach here. He’s still splitting snaps fairly evenly with Seth DeValve, and is yet to top 3 catches in a game. You’re basically counting on a TD for him to be useful to you. This week’s matchup isn’t great for that. The Texans have allowed just 1 tight end score this season, and have been tough on the TEs they’ve faced that aren’t Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce.
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): Jonnu had a season-high 5 targets come his way last Sunday and he caught all of them, but he totaled just 21 yards. Marcus Mariota is expected to return this week and that should help the Titans’ offense, but I doubt it helps Jonnu all that much. The Colts have been a good matchup for opposing TEs, but it should be Delanie Walker who benefits from that this week. Jonnu is still a name to know in dynasty formats.
TE OJ Howard, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): If Howard can put up a goose egg against the Patriots, I’m not sure there is any matchup you can use him in as long as Brate is healthy. It was nice to see OJ get targeted in the end zone on the game’s final play last Thursday, but it was his only target of the night. This is essentially a redshirt year for Howard in dynasty leagues, but no reason to own him anywhere else right now.
Rookies on Byes: RB Joe Mixon, CIN, WR Zay Jones, BUF, WR John Ross, CIN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB D’Onta Foreman, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Foreman has some upside as a DFS tournament punt option. Houston is a 10-point favorite, and if Deshaun Watson goes supernova again, Foreman should see some extra work in a blowout. The Browns don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace the way the Chiefs do. Foreman saw 13 carries in the blowout win over Tennessee a couple weeks ago, and something similar could be in the offing this week.
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT (Wk. 6: @KC): JJSS is a screaming value in DFS formats this week in my opinion. He’ll cost just $3,600 on DraftKings. The Chiefs have been roasted by WRs this year, allowing the 5th-most WR points per game, and the Steelers were talking about giving Martavis Bryant ‘a break’ this week. I doubt they would sit him completely, but even if they scale him back it should mean more work for JuJu. Smith-Schuster has averaged nearly 6 targets a game in the past 3 weeks, and his yardage has increased each week. I like JuJu a lot as a cheap DFS tournament option.
WR Kenny Golladay, DET (Wk. 6: @NO): Golladay has missed the last 2 games, but if he’s able to suit up this week, this is a matchup where he can come up big. The Lions have desperately needed a vertical receiver the past couple weeks to open up the offense, and the Saints have allowed the 3rd-most pass plays of 20+ yards. I wouldn’t thrust Kenny G back into lineups in season long leagues just yet, but he’s an intriguing DFS tournament option.
WR Mike Williams, LAC (Wk. 6: @Oak.): Mike should finally get on the field this week, but he likely won’t see a ton of targets in his first go-round after missing all of the preseason and the first 5 weeks. He’s still worth a stash in deeper leagues to see how his role develops. Chargers may wind up with the two Williamses on the outside (Mike and Tyrell), and Keenan Allen in the slot in 3-wide sets. Mike projects as a matchup nightmare in the red zone at 6’4”, 218.
WR Kasen Williams, CLE (Wk. 6: @Hou.): Ok, so Williams isn’t technically a rookie, but I wanted to mention her here as a guy to potentially stash in really deep leagues and dynasty formats. The Browns want nothing to do with Kenny Britt at this point, Ricardo Louis is one of Pro Football Focus’s lowest graded WRs (ranks 100th in the league), and Kevin Hogan showed the ability to move the team down the field last week. Williams has a little bit of appeal as a DFS punt play since the Texans’ secondary has been pretty burnable. Kasen flashed in training camp with the Seahawks before becoming a casualty of roster limits. He played 45% of the offensive snaps last week for Cleveland, and posted 4-33 on 5 targets. I expect him to get more involved going forward, and he has a chance to develop into the Browns’ number 1 target until Corey Coleman returns.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week. Plenty of situations are still fluid: Mariota, TyMo, Derek Carr, etc, that can have huge impacts on fantasy, and you don’t want to get stuck with a goose egg because you weren’t paying attention. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
- Details
- Written by Matt Cochrane
And the winner for the 2017 NFL Survivor killer goes to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last week they laid an egg at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, driven by a 5 interception day from Ben Roethlisberger. In doing so they claimed another 127 victims in my pool and got the remaining entrants down to 157 from the original 1008 at the beginning of the season. When you pair this game with their week 3 loss to the Bears, I think it's safe to say nobody will be a bigger disappointment this season. I had high points on them in my confidence pools but fortunately for myself I went with the Eagles last week who crushed the Cardinals 34-7.
This week sees 3 teams favored by over 10 points and another 3 favored by over a touchdown. So basically, take a dart and throw it at the schedule and you should make it through this week safely. For me I was split between the 3 favored by 10, the Broncos, Texans, and Falcons. The Broncos coming out of the bye week with the best secondary in the league playing against the Giants who last week lost their top 3 receivers to injury and have no ability to run the ball, are the lock of the century. Go ahead and pick that if you want to feel warm and fuzzy. I however started looking further down the schedule and see other opportunities for a Broncos selection in later weeks. The same is true for the Texans, plus there is the added wild card of a winless Browns team fielding a new starting QB in this game. Who knew a failing Notre Dame QB would continue to fail on last year’s worst NFL team.
This brings me to my survivor selection, the Atlanta Falcons. So far this year the Falcons look poised to return to the Super Bowl and avenge last year’s second half blunder. When I look at the Falcons schedule this game is by far their easiest match-up and their remaining schedule sees all their tougher match-ups at home and quote un-quote easy games on the road. Coming out of their own bye week, I see them making easy work of the offensively inept Dolphins at home. Basically, score 20 points and the Dolphins will have no shot.
Cheers!
Drink Five
- Details
- Written by Tad Bukowski
OK, last week was just bad. I would like to offer my apologies…and so should the Steelers!
But again, your lowest score is removed so let’s also remove it from our memory – still plenty of season to play!
Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
14 – DENVER over New York Giants – The Denver defense is already referred to as the “No Fly Zone.” Should be a pretty easy day when Eli Manning will basically be throwing to waterboy level wideouts.
13 – ATLANTA over Miami – The Dolphins have officially been “Jay Cutler’d” It will be a rough rest of the season in South Beach.
12 – HOUSTON over Cleveland – Houston took two major blows to their defense last week…but they’re playing the Browns…sooooo….you know.
11 – BALTIMORE over Chicago – The Mitch Trubisky show hits the road for the first time. Pretty easy to see that the outcome won’t change with the time zone.
10 – TENNESSEE over Indianapolis – To say that the Titans 2017 have been disappointing so far would be an understatement. Lucky for them Andrew Luck isn’t back just yet.
9 – New England over NEW YORK JETS – Can’t say that I expected to see two teams over .500 in this game. What will be expected is the outcome though.
8 – WASHINGTON over San Francisco – Traveling across the country in search for your first win this season isn’t exactly the best way to go about it.
7 – KANSAS CITY over Pittsburgh – The Chiefs are clearly the best team in the league so far. But the fact that the Steelers ended the Chiefs season last year drops them down a few points in this game.
6 – JACKSONVILLE over Los Angeles Rams – Sooooooooo with how the first quarter of the season played out, this could be considered a possible Super Bowl matchup…just gonna let that sink in for a bit.
5 – OAKLAND over Los Angeles Chargers – The Raiders are just a different team with Derek Carr under center. If Carr plays, you can bump them up a few spots.
4 – CAROLINA over Philadelphia – Thursday Night gives us what should be the most exciting game of the week. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that EVEN AFTER THEIR SLOW START, THE PANTHERS WILL WIN THE NFC SOUTH.
3 – Green Bay over MINNESOTA – What is it about the Packers and Aaron Rodgers that makes you think they won’t have a chance to win every game they play?
2 – NEW ORLEANS over Detroit – I wouldn’t be surprised if the Adrian Peterson trade is very beneficial for the Saints. Peterson’s attitude may have been a bit of a distraction. At least it would be enough to win this week.
1 – ARIZONA over Tampa Bay – Obviously the trade was beneficial for the Cardinals. Finally they have someone after the David Johnson injury that will allow Carson Palmer not throw the ball 83 times a game.
- Details
- Written by David Biggs
Week 6 rolls along with some serious shake-ups in the league, including the demolition of the Giants' passing offense (Marshall and Beckham both out for the season and Shepard in a walking boot). We're still seeing some offensive weapons in fantasy that are remaining stagnant, and now is the time to consider cutting bait with them and moving on. Let's focus on the players that should provide your team with a boost this coming week - some of those guys include: Derek Carr, Mark Ingram, Elijah McGuire, Emmanuel Sanders, Amari Cooper, Austin Hooper, and the Baltimore Ravens.
- Details
- Written by Jim Hutchins
It's the end of another exciting week of football which means it's time to put your claims in for available free agents in your fantasy league to strengthen your team. I'll be going over who I think are the top five picks for you to target this week so don't miss out on them. Good luck!
Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.
5) Marlon Mack (IND) - 9% owned - Mack should have earned himself more playing time after putting up 93 yards and a touchdown. There will probably be an even timeshare of carries between him and Frank Gore for the time being, but he has a shot to overtake Gore if he continues to play well.
4) Elijah McGuire (NYJ) - 17% owned - McGuire could be poised for a significant workload this week against the Patriots as both Matt Forte and Bilal Powell are injured with little expectation to be ready to go. McGuire has played well in his limited opportunities this season running for 5.2 yards per carry.
3) Javorius Allen (BAL) - 58% owned - Allen is coming off a very productive game racking up 85 yards 4 catches and a touchdown after Terrance West went down early with a calf injury. West isn't expected to be ready this week so Allen should be in line for another high volume of touches.
2) Mike Wallace (BAL) - 33% owned - Coming off back to back productive games it would appear Wallace is getting more involved in the Ravens offense. At the moment he looks to be a boom or bust deep threat, but Flacco has proven to be able to hit the deep ball in his career.
1) Aaron Jones (GB) - 57% owned - Jones has emerged as the lead back for Green Bay with Ty Montgomery sidelined. It's expected that Montgomery will miss multiple weeks which makes Jones a must start until he comes back.
- Details
- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters.
0-4 vs the Chargers
Eli Manning is now 0-4 against the team that he shunned on draft day, way back in 2004. Sure, he probably made the right call, considering the Giants have two Super Bowl rings to the Charger's zero since that draft, but karma's a bitch. The Giants lost all 4 of their wide receivers on Sunday, with Odell Beckham Jr. and Dwayne Harris out for the season. We'll see what happens going forward with Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard, but the Giants are really hurting now and have an 0-5 record to show for all their struggles. For now, the Giants are a fantasy wasteland, best avoided until they can get some things figured out.
73 Seconds to Win the Game
When Aaron Rodgers has the ball in his hands at the end of a game, it just feels like a TD is inevitable. Perhaps the biggest mistake the Cowboys made in their own late fourth quarter touchdown drive was leaving too much time on the clock for Rodgers. This game delivered on its marquee matchup status, with 5 lead changes in the fourth quarter and a ridiculous end of game lateral play that worked a lot better than most - and resulted in the Packers D/ST gaining two fumble recoveries in the same play. Can we get an official scorekeeper explanation on this? As a commissioner, I sure can't explain it to people in my league. Sorry, @Shawn_Foss.
125.8 Passer Rating
Alex Smith has a 125.8 passer rating for the 2017 season, through 5 games. This leads the league, and it's not even very close. Brady is second with 112 - but Brady is closer to Deshaun Watson at 7 than he is to Alex Smith. Smith is also leads the league in completion percentage (76.6), yards per attempt (8.8), game winning drives (3) and has zero interceptions so far. In fact, he has zero turnovers at all and over 100 rushing yards already! All this maybe makes this last stat a little more impressive - he's only second overall in fantasy points this season, now just 0.32 points behind a guy who didn't even start in Week 1.
5 (more) Passing TD's
Deshaun Watson scored another 5 TD's last night, and has 10 in the last two games (9 passing, 1 rushing). He has now put up over 70 points in the last two weeks, with those games basically splitting that total. This has catapulted him into the top fantasy spot after 5 weeks, and with his 30.8 point average over the last three weeks, he's not just in the QB1 discussion, he's near the top of it. The Texans get Cleveland next week, followed by a bye week and a pretty easy looking schedule with a couple of tough road games sprinkled in. Watson has made a whole bunch of guys fantasy relevant in Houston, including Will Fuller and D'onta Foreman, not to mention the re-emergence of DeAndre Hopkins as a solid WR1.
5 Interceptions
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 INT's on Sunday, yes F-I-V-E. Two of those went as a pick-six and perhaps the better story here is that the Jaguars DST has 12 or more points in 4 of their 5 games this season. Yesterday's 28 points matches their Week 1 total, and a home game against the Rams and a road game in Indy means you fire them up for a couple more weeks before their bye. It also is likely to mean you find a way to keep them through your bye week. On the other side, you've got the Steelers juggernaut offense that is just....not. Roethlisberger knows it's basically on him to figure this out and improve so as to not squander the great talent they have surrounded him with. Matchups in KC and Detroit over the next three weeks do not give a good outlook that he gets it turned around quickly.
- Details
- Written by Matt Cochrane
Last week was a tale of two halves. The first saw me with my head in my hands cursing my reluctance to select the Packers in their beat down of the Bears, while watching the Seahawks trail the Colts 15-10 at the half. Then alas the third quarter started and the Hawks began laying a beat down of their own en route to a 46-18 victory. Others were not so lucky, with 196 more people being eliminated in week 4. The 3 biggest disappointments came at the hands of Atlanta, Dallas, and New England.
Week 5 might be the hardest week to pick all season. All the bad teams play each other (Jets/Browns), and all the best teams have tough match-ups, are on bye, or on the road. The weeks biggest favorite is the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Steelers are the team I feel most confident in this week, and they actually haven't been that impressive this season yet. Unfortunately for me, I already used the Steelers up in a week 1 victory.
So, I have to go with my second choice, the Philadelphia Eagles at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The Eagles have looked impressive all season long and have their only loss coming at the hands of the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in week 2 (27-20). The Cardinals, on the other hand, look to be a team one season prior to a rebuild. While this game will feature Arizona's biggest strength (their passing game) going against the Eagles biggest weakness (their secondary), I still see the Eagles pulling this one off to add to their nice lead in the NFC East. Is there such a thing as making them beat us on the ground? Because at just 2.65 YPR the Cardinals will need 5 downs to get a 1st.
Good Luck,
Drink Five!!
- Details
- Written by M.J. Nicholas
Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and over/ unders in the NFL? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your precarious souls at ease. 18 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on my resume, as well as currently playing in my 21st season of fantasy football(definitely a self-proclaimed pioneer). But enough about Cool Hand Luke. In this weekly column, I'll briefly recap some of the past week's sportsbook outcomes, moods and reflections, as well as offer words of advice and knowledge on betting strategies. Additionally, for every game, I'll have my picks for the spread, moneyline and under/ over ready to go. And if you're good(or I just happen to be feeling generous), I'll offer up one of my tantalizing, high-odds 'Nicks Picks', a ticket too good to be true. Anyway, if for some reason any of Nick's Picks let you down, I'm cool with you telling your bookie it was all my fault. Yeah... right.
'CAN'T TRUST ANYBODY ANYMORE' - The New England Patriots. Atlanta Falcons. Dallas Cowboys. Minnesota Vikings. San Diego Chargers. All teams that should of won in week 4(some with more certainty than others), but didn't, which caused me to win less 'obvious' tickets, which led to less winnings for the week, which really burned my ass. BTW, did you notice that I didn't include The Miami Dolphins with the rest of the teams that were supposed to win? Yeah, I had the Saints all day too... Cutler and the fish are reeking like rotten tuna and guessing that outcome was a no-brainer. But getting back to my point with the other teams is, there is usually a handful of games that are pretty much 'definites', 'for-sures' or 'locks', whatever you want to call them. And these contests are usually the ones you feel the most confident starting your weekly tickets out with, especially when doubling down or putting in a parlay. I guess my point is, even though a team like New England may have had a reputation for being an unbeatable home team... things can change. Oh yeah, and don't include one team or game in more than a couple parlays, unless you play a 'circular, next best' system, which I'll get into at another time. Before I go and leave my picks for the week, I'd like to tell you which sportsbook I use and where I get my lines.
So, I've currently been placing all my action at nitrogensports.eu, which is owned by Bitcoin. I think their lines are more than fair and they're usually put up earlier in the week than a lot of sites. Another reason I'm a fan of Bitcoin, is you don't have to dish out any personal information to give or receive sportsbook funds. This has turned out to be a very popular system in the world of online wagering, due to the anonymity involved and speed/ safety of receiving your winnings. If you're unfamiliar with Bitcoin, you'll first have to go to a site like Coinbase, where I bought my Bitcoins. All you will need is your debit or credit card to load your account. Then, a good idea is to get a Bitcoin 'wallet', like at a site called Blockchain Wallet. A place such as this is where you transfer your Bitcoins before finally sending them to your sportsbook. Coinbase frowns on offshore wagering and won't honor your Bitcoins if they find out they're from a sportsbook, hence the 'middle man' wallet account, such as Blockchain. Here is a very informative site to help get you started with Bitcoin. https://www.safestbettingsites.com/deposit-withdraw/bitcoin/using-bitcoin-online-gambling-sites-step-step-guide One final piece of advice is, that I keep all my Bitcoin in my sportsbook account until I'm ready for a cash-out. Then it's to my Blockchain wallet, to my Coinbase account, and finally to my debit card. I hope this helps answer any questions you had on this modern and favorable method of sportsbook funding.
NICK'S PICK OF THE WEEK - 3 GAME PARLAY | DET -2 | LAR -1 | GB +2
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - NEP -5 | NEP -226 | OVER 55
NEW YORK JETS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS - NYJ +0 | NYJ -102 | OVER 39
TENNESSEE TITANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS - GAME LINES CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE DUE TO INJURY
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - SF +1.5 | SF +106 | OVER 44
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ DETROIT LIONS - DET -2 | DET -131 | UNDER 44
BUFFALO BILLS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS - BUF +3 | BUF +132 | OVER 39
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS - LAC +3.5 | LAC +159 | OVER 44.5
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - PHI -6.5 | PHI -272 | OVER 45
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS - JAX +8.5 | PIT -395 | UNDER 43.5
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS - LAR -1 | LAR -113 | UNDER 47.5
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS - BAL +2.5 | BAL +131 | UNDER 39
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS - GBP +2 | GBP +116 | OVER 52.5
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS - HOU +1 | HOU +110 | OVER 47
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS -GAME LINES CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE DUE TO INJURY
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS:
SPREAD 10-6
MONEYLINE 9-7
TOTAL U/O 9-7
YTD RESULTS:
SPREAD 30-32
MONEYLINE 38-24
TOTAL U/O 30-32