Four weeks into the NFL season and most of us have experienced at least some upheaval when it comes to our starting lineups. Here, we have six sleeper picks for you. These are guys that are buried on your bench, or perhaps still on the waiver wire, who can deliver the promise of a top-10 performance in Week 5. Remember, I said promise, not guarantee.
Jason:
- James Conner (vs SF) - Last week Conner was the RB8, the week before he was the RB12. The 49ers are giving up the 10th most points to opposing RBs. The 49ers are either going to roll out an injury-hobbled Jimmy G, or Trey Lance in his first NFL start. Either way, the league’s highest scoring offense will be just fine and the Cardinals, who have scored at least 31 points every week, could easily find themselves with clock to burn in garbage time. So, even though Conner is not doing much with the decent amount of carries he’s getting, he is finding the end zone lately. It seems like the short yardage work is going to go his way for now, instead of Kyler Murray’s - which is a smart way to keep your QB healthy.
- Kadarius Toney (@ DAL) - Last week, the Giants had two of their starting WRs, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, out with injury. The result was that the Giants hadtheir best passing performance of the season, and it wasn’t even close. Kadarius Toney led the team in targets with 9, catching 6 of them for 78 yards. Toney gets to play the Cowboys this year, who are giving up the 3rd most points to opposing WRs through 4 games. Toney should get peppered with targets once again, either from the Giants keeping pace with the Cowboys, or just trying to catch up if it’s a blowout. Either way, it’s a prime spot for Toney to break out and also find the end zone for the first time.
- Zack Moss (@ KC) - After being inactive for Week 1, Moss has had a very steady fantasy season. He has scored a touchdown in each of the last 3 games. This week he goes up against yet another defense that is giving up top 10 fantasy points to opposing RBs. The Chiefs are 5th on that list, and really just giving up tons of points to everyone so far this year. Moss has slowly gained more of a share of the carries in the Buffalo backfield, and if I had to pick between him and Devin Singletary, I’m going with Moss to be the guy to have the big game against Kansas City. The touchdown streak continues, the Bills keep rolling and will put up another 40 against the Chiefs (their average score during this winning streak is 39.3).
Dave:
- Michael Carter (@ ATL) - As predicted by many in the fantasy football community earlier this year, Michael Carter has begun to take over the Jets’ backfield snaps from Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman. He had a season-high 13 attempts last week against the Titans, but was only able to put up 9.4 points against the middling rushing defense (including his first NFL touchdown). Good news ahead for Carter, though. He’ll be going up against the Falcons in Week 5 who have been giving up an average of 19.9 points per week to opposing RBs. It’s not likely that Carter starts to see more passing down work, but the momentum looks good to me at the moment - coming off their first win of the season in overtime and finally all of their receivers healthy at one time could be just the combination of fairy dust necessary for Carter’s breakout performance.
- Laviska Shenault (vs TEN) - Unfortunately, D.J. Chark was injured on the fourth play of the game last week against the Bengals, getting carted off the field with what was later determined to be a broken left ankle. It’s not likely that we’ll be seeing him for the rest of the season, which opens up the #1 WR spot on the Jaguars for second-year receiver Shenault. While it’s true that he only has the second-most targets on the team so far this season with 28 to Marvin Jones’s 31, a quick glance at the trajectory of their trending statistics reveals that Jones has had fewer targets and less fantasy production each of the past 3 weeks, whereas Shenault has registered an increase in receptions, yardage, and fantasy points over the same time period. A clear indication of how his usage will trend moving forward, especially with Chark’s injury. Trevor Lawrence leaned on Shenault heavily last week and will continue to do so against Tennessee’s league-worst passing defense, currently allowing 36.1 fantasy points per game on average.
- Robby Anderson (vs PHI) - Historically considered by many to be your classic boom-or-bust fantasy option, Anderson has already showcased his deep field abilities this year in week 1 with a 57-yard TD from current QB and former teammate Sam Darnold. So that’s not at all in question. No, the issue is more about Anderson’s consistency of play and whether or not he can get into the same rhythm with Darnold as he did with Teddy Bridgewater under center in 2020. He had 95 receptions for over 1,000 yards last season. This week’s matchup against the Eagles is a positive one for Anderson, with the Philadelphia passing defense on the wrong side of good so far this season, and his targets per game trending up from 3 to 6 to 11 if you discount the Houston win (26-9) in week 3 as a game that didn’t require a lot of field stretching to put to pasture. It’s clear that D.J. Moore has solidified his position as the WR1 in Carolina, but there is room on this offense for Anderson to succeed as well.
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