Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 3 Preview: The Replacements

QUARTERBACK

Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) – Big Ben will be out for the season after undergoing surgery on his elbow this week. This elevates Mason Rudolph to a permanent starting position for the Steelers offense which has been struggling over the first two weeks of the season. Strangely, Rudolph was able to spark the offense against Seattle more than Ben had earlier in the game. Whispers that this elbow issue had been going on with Roethlisberger since before the season even started would make some sense of that. The Steelers just traded for a new safety to bolster their secondary and Rudolph and the offense are being undervalued right now. They all make for good ‘buy’ targets.

Drew Brees (thumb) – Brees had thumb surgery today, and according to Ed Werder from ESPN the target date for a return will be Week 10, after the Saints bye. Teddy Bridgewater becomes the starter in New Orleans and immediately puts a damper on the offense there. Michael Thomas still received plenty of targets with Teddy under center, but surprisingly Alvin Kamara (13 for 45 on the ground, 1-of-3 for 15 yards receiving) did not. This will lower Kamara’s ceiling and push Latavius Murray off the radar. One interesting note, Sean Payton today was very ambiguous when asked about the starting QB going forward – maybe we’ll see Taysom Hill take over, or possibly even QBBC?

Cam Newton (foot) – This could be the end of an era for the Panthers’ QB. He looks beat up, is apparently nursing a foot (left, same as in preseason), and hasn’t been able to throw the ball downfield consistently and accurately since his shoulder issues. If Cam can’t run, and can’t throw.. it makes sense that someone else should step up in Carolina. But Christian McCaffrey can’t also be the Quarterback. Newton’s primary backup is Kyle Allen and they also drafted rookie QB Will Grier in the third-round this year, but neither seems primed to be a difference-maker or take the mantle from Cam. It just looks rough out there in Charlotte. (update via Ian Rappaport: Cam is in a walking boot)

Jets QBs are unusable (Sam Darnold w/ Mono out until Week 5 at the earliest, Trevor Siemian (leg), only Luke Falk left so no hope for Jets fans until October. This also decreases the fantasy viability of Jamison Crowder based on his usage in Week 2. It does look like Robby Anderson (4-of-6 for 81 yards) and Le’Veon Bell (21 for 68 on the ground, 10 for 61 in the air) will still be forced the ball, so while Falk being under center is certainly not a long-term positive change for them, both players should still be considered for your starting lineup.)

RUNNING BACK

James Conner (knee) – All signs point to Conner playing against the 49ers this week, but we’ll likely see a little more of Jaylen Samuels. Of course, the Steelers tend to just pepper the starting RB with carries as long as they’re playing so I ultimately wouldn’t start anyone but Conner as long as he’s active and starting.

Damien Williams (knee) – and LeSean McCoy (ankle). It could be Darwin Thompson time somewhat soon. He will certainly be getting more snaps in the coming weeks with both starting RBs on the Chiefs already showing up on the injury list.

Josh Jacobs (groin) – Interesting that Jacobs isn’t being used in the passing game (zero targets last week) currently, but that may be completely because of his injury. Something to monitor, but if he’s only rushing and getting no passes in the backfield, his value is slightly depressed (and so will you be while watching the game!)

Devin Singletary (hamstring) – Devin played well last week (6 rushes for 57 yards and 1 TD) but was ruled out late in the game with a hamstring injury. Clearly the best RB in Buffalo right now, this is another situation to monitor. Frank Gore (19 for 68 and 1TD on the ground, 2 receptions for 15 yards) is still chugging along and is startable this week, especially if Singletary is limited or out.

Marlon Mack (calf) missed practice Wednesday – Nyheim Hines gets a boost if Mack can’t go.

WIDE RECEIVER

Alshon Jeffery (calf) – The Eagles canceled practice on Wednesday since their entire team is injured. At this point, it’s not likely that Jeffery plays in Week 3 and that may work in Nelson Agholor’s favor (8-of-11 for 107 yards and 1 TD). Agholor and Ertz (8-of-16 for 72 yards) are going to have a fantasy field day in Week 3 against the Lions. Lock n’ load!

DeSean Jackson (groin) – Jackson is getting old. He’s been injured in every game so far, and Tom Pelissero from NFL.com reports that he will not play in weeks 3 or 4.

Michael Gallup (knee) – Gallup has been killin’ it on the Cowboys (6-of-8 for 68 yards last week after 7-of-7 for 168 yards in week 1) and would surely have been an excellent play against the hapless Dolphins this week, but he’s dealing with a meniscus tear that will sideline him for 2-4 weeks. Perhaps Devin Smith will take some of those targets, and Jason Witten will be getting a few extra as well.

Tyrell Williams (hip) – It’s a hip pointer! Not horrible news, but still questionable for Week 3. He’ll also be going up against Xavier Rhodes this week, so it was already a bad matchup. May be a player to avoid starting against the Vikings, knowing that he has a bit of an injury going into the week. Darren Waller might be sucking up even more targets than usual.

Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) – Didn’t practice, probably won’t matter anyway with Bridgewater in.

TIGHT END

David Njoku (concussion, wrist) – Not only did Njoku suffer a concussion during the crazy fall to the head/neck that happened at the beginning of Monday Night Football in Week 2, he has also been confirmed to have broken his wrist. This will leave Njoku on the sidelines for several weeks, and early speculation from beat reporters has him coming back in Week 8 – one week after the Browns’ bye. At least he’ll have enough time to get over his concussion, yipes!

For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 10 Preview: ADP vs. Reality

QUARTERBACK

Jacoby Brissett (MCL Sprain) – Brissett has still not been ruled out for Week 10’s game against the Dolphins after going down early in the Steelers game last week. Brian Hoyer filled in for him and went 17/26 for 168 yards and 3 TDs with 1 INT. Brissett put in a limited practice today and he is still expected to try and play, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Colts held him out one more week since their matchup against the Dolphins is still winnable with a backup QB and without T.Y. Hilton (calf).

Cam Newton (Lisfranc) – Newton was put on the IR yesterday, ending his season. Kyle Allen will fill in for the rest of the year at QB and although he’s not playing at a high level he has been managing the team to wins since Newton’s departure – something Cam was not excelling at. It’s likely at this point that Newton will be under center for some other team next season.

Patrick Mahomes (knee) – Andy Reid said that the Chiefs were increasing Mahomes’ workload in practice this week before starting him against the Titans on Sunday. He participated fully today and should be expected to start this week barring any setbacks, putting Matt Moore back behind the clipboard.

RUNNING BACK

Le’Veon Bell (knee) – Bell had an MRI on his knee Monday, and the Jets signed Josh Adams – causing fantasy team owners around the world to hold their breath – but the Adams signing was apparently a defensive move in order to block the Dolphins from acquiring him in the wake of Mark Walton’s suspension. The latest news on Bell is that he has no structural damage to his knee and wanted to practice today, but the team forced him to rest instead. It’s still possible that Bell is held out, so watch the news this week to see if he suits up. Ty Montgomery would fill in if he did miss time but he would not be a big fantasy asset by any means.

David Johnson (ankle) – The Cardinals’ best receiver so far this year, Johnson says that he’s “definitely playing” this week against the Buccaneers. Expect a tandem of Johnson and the newly acquired Kenyan Drake, which may impress more than people think. The Cardinals are getting healthy again with Kirk back, and Week 10’s matchup against TB (allowing a league-leading 37.91 points against WRs this year) may be a lucrative one for Cardinals’ pass catchers.

James Conner (shoulder) – Tomlin is optimistic that Conner will play in Week 10 but Samuels will be the guy if Conner is unable to. Conner’s backup Edmunds didn’t practice today which was a surprise – but Conner did put in a limited session. Sounds like he’ll go. Editor's Note (11/7): Sounds like he won't go now, and depth behind Samuels is a bit of a mystery.

WIDE RECEIVER

DeSean Jackson (abdomen) – Surgery later this week, off fantasy radar for the rest of the season. We’ll see him again next year, but it’s always sad from an explosive player like Jackson who put up 8 receptions for 154 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1. Mack Hollins will continue to act as the WR3 on the Eagles, but Miles Sanders gets a lot of benefit out of the extra targets on this offense as well.

Preston Williams (knee) – This injury ends Williams’ season, but he was very solid as a receiver and we’ll see him again next year!

Adam Thielen (hamstring) – Thielen tried to rejoin the offense last week but limped off early in the contest and is now expected to miss several weeks in order to get fully healthy. Week 13 looks like the target for him to get back on the field, with the Vikings on bye in Week 12. He has been disappointing this season from a fantasy perspective and is only on pace for 48 catches and 695 yards.

T.Y. Hilton (calf) – Head coach Frank Reich now expects Hilton to be out for 3-4 weeks, and Zach Pascal is filling in while Hilton is out. Pascal was a hot waiver wire pickup over the last 2 weeks, and he did have nice games in Weeks 7 and 9, but he is still very much boom or bust and capable of performances like his 6-yard game against the Broncos in Week 8. Buyer beware!

Sterling Shepard & Brandin Cooks (concussion) – Shepard and Cooks are probably at the same specialist in Pittsburgh consulting about concussions.. it looks like both of them may end up on IR, which would be a big blow to those offenses.

TIGHT END

Chris Herndon (hamstring) – Looks like Herndon will suit up (for real this time) and play his first snaps this week. He was a beast last year and should be owned in every league, regardless of format, with the TE landscape being as barren as it is this year.

O.J. Howard (hamstring) – Howard will be out there against the Cardinals in Week 10 and we all know what the Cardinals weakness is.. tight ends. Do we think that Howard will actually put up fantasy start worthy stats? Coin toss.

Evan Engram (foot) – He’s hanging out in a walking boot. Mid-foot sprain will have his status squarely at week-to-week. As Rotoworld smartly states, “mid-foot” can refer to a Lisfranc injury.. which tends to put people on the bench for multiple weeks or even send them home for the season. Monitor carefully, as he was performing at a high level before being injured.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

42.28 Fantasy Points, 3% Owned

The season has begun, and our first stat is a two-for one special. On Sunday, Ryan Fitzpatrick (or the Amish Rifle, wtf), dominated the Saints in his best game of his career. Fitzmagic (his real nickname, come on guys) put up a career high 417 yards and QB rating of 156.2. 158.3 is perfect, so, ya know, there's room for improvement still. Only owned in 3% of fantasy leagues, Fitz outscored all other QBs by over 10 points to put up a ridiculous 42.28 points from 417 yards, 4 passing TDs, 36 rushing yards and another TD on the ground. Now with his 7th NFL team (he has started at least 3 games for each of those teams), he has established that he and his magnificent beard are planning on sticking around way past week 3. This will not even become a QB controversy if he continues to play at this level.

8 minutes, 21 seconds

The clock still read 6:39 left in the 1st quarter when Tyreek Hill found the end zone for the second time yesterday. A 91 yard punt return, followed by a 58 yard catch and run gave the Chiefs a comfortable 14-3 lead that they held on to the entire game. Known as the king of long touchdowns, Hill added a 1 yard score in the 4th quarter, showing he isn't just a one-trick pony. Even if he was, it's a really damn good trick - constantly outrunning everyone on the field. We must also give props to Patrick Mahomes, putting up 256 yards and 4 TDs while taking only 1 sack and not turning the ball over at all. The Chiefs have really not skipped a beat, all while turning over their OC and starting QB.

36 total touches

In a very Bell-esque performance, James Conner had a massive fantasy game in his first career start. This may be a surprise to some, but the Steelers seemed to know they would be fine without Bell. Maybe it's Conner's talent or maybe it's the stud-filled offensive line, but this makes me wonder why the Steelers tagged Bell in the first place. Bell is a favorite of this column, and I'm not happy with his situation, but this space is for James Conner. Going in to this game, Conner had 32 career touches for 144 yards and 0 TDs. On Sunday, he more than doubled those numbers, putting up 192 yards from scrimmage and scoring twice. He and Alvin Kamara are the only RBs in the top 16 fantasy point scorers, so a game like this only makes the drama with the Steelers more complicated. If only they hadn't TIED the stupid Browns.

13 WRs with 100+ Yards

So far in Week 1, there are 13 WRs who have over 100 receiving yards, led by Michael Thomas's absurd 16 rec for 180 yards. By contrast, there were only 2 RBs who had over 100 rushing yards (Todd Gurley is a good candidate for 100 tonight). This quick view of the week just reinforces something we've said for a long time on drinkfive. Wide receivers start the season much faster than RBs. Traditionally, we find the first half of the seasons is dominated by WRs and the latter half gets taken over by RBs. Not only is this number way in favor of the WRs, but it's guys who are drafted/owned/started. Of the 13 over 100 yards, only 1, DeSean Jackson (26% owned), is under the 68% owned mark. This means that the guys being drafted are producing right away. For the RBs, 5 of the 12 backs who are 100% owned in Yahoo put up single digit (or 0) points.  Get those WRs early, turn them in to RBs later in the season. Win championship, rinse, repeat.

-7 Combined Points from 2 Top DSTs

I don't often venture into the DST territory in this column, but yesterday featured two ugly performances by top 8 DSTs based on ownership percentage. The Saints gave up 48 points en route to doing absolutely nothing else, ending with a -4 point score. The Chargers did manage one sack while giving up 38 points and finished with -3 points. This brings up a memory from a draft this year, where I was discussing DSTs with fellow drinkfiver Dave. He said that his favorite defense to draft was the Saints based on their week 1 matchup. I firmly disagreed, insisting that the Chargers were the team to own. Before you call us crazy, we only take DSTs at the end of the draft. This would feel like something to laugh off, but  6 of the other top 9 DSTs did find their way into double digits, and the Rams are on that list and can easily hit that mark tonight.

So you've made it to the fantasy playoffs - congratulations! Now let's get down to business and pick the best plays for this week to move you to the next round. Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Kyler Murray, Phillip Rivers, Kenyan Drake, James Conner, Chris Godwin, Jamison Crowder, Anthony Firkser, and Dallas Cowboys D/ST.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!