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We hit on more than a few guys this past week, and with all of the bye weeks upon us it's more important than ever to pick upside players that can dish out a good performance as a fill-in for your roster. Hopefully you're going into week 8 with a good record and a lot of confidence, but even if you have not been doing so well it's not too late to turn the ship around. Pay attention to this week's rankings, with special consideration to a few guys: Tyrod Taylor, Ameer Abdullah, Matt Forte, Michael Crabtree, Robby Anderson, Austin Hooper, Steven Hauschka, and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

After 3 weeks of play, we can always draw some conclusions based on trends that are observed over the first few games. In this case, I've chosen a few players that have downward trends associated with their performances in Weeks 1-3. We'll see what comes to pass, but don't ignore the trends once they reach 3+ games - after a certain period of time they are statistically likely to continue or level off rather than to reverse course. Is it just about the matchups? Is it about a certain style of play or what schemes the coaches are running? Draw your own conclusions, of course, but use the information below to help with that as you see fit.

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) – Surprise! Jackson finished the 2019 fantasy season as the #1 QB overall with a ridiculous 421.7 fantasy points. The next best was Dak Prescott with 348.9 points. Crazy, right? Well, so far in 2020, Jackson is the #13 QB overall with only 19.8 fantasy points per game (59.3 total). For reference, the QBs on the top like Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Prescott, and Murray are all averaging around 30 fantasy points per game through the first three games.

Week 1 (vs. CLE): 20/25, 80% comp, 275 yards, 3 TDs, 7/45 rushing, 0 TDs – 27.5 fpts

Week 2 (@ HOU): 18/24, 75% comp, 204 yards, 1 TD, 16/54 rushing, 0 TDs – 17.56 fpts

Week 3 (vs. KC): 15/28, 53.6% comp, 97 yards, 1 TD, 9/83 rushing, 0 TDs – 14.18 fpts

What information can we garner from these stats? Well, Jackson has been trending down in several categories game over game: completions, completion percentage, and passing yards. Granted the Texans and Chiefs have better passing defenses than the Browns so far this season (at #20 and #17 highest fantasy points against QBs respectively vs. #10 for the Browns), but it’s disconcerting to see him not even break into the top 10 when he was being drafted in as high as the 1^st and 2^nd rounds of fantasy drafts earlier this year. Ouch. All of that said, what is the prognosis for Jackson over the coming weeks? He plays @WAS in Week 4 (#14 fantasy points against QBs), vs. CIN in Week 5 (#25 fantasy points against QBS), and @PHI in Week 6 (#19 fantasy points against QBs). Does it get better? Not really... in the weeks that follow, the Ravens play PIT, IND, NE, and TEN. You are going to keep Jackson on your squad because of his rushing and big play ability, but it is impossible to ignore this downturn. Week 4 is Jackson’s chance to bust out with a big fantasy game and experts still have him on top of the QB heap, but if it is a miss as well there is something not quite right in Baltimore. Run-first is a philosophy we can deal with – run-always is a problem. Marquise Brown is also tied in to this directly with Jackson as the WR1 in Baltimore (12.6, 6.7, 2.3)

Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI) – Drake had a fabulous finish to the 2019 season. He was traded to the Cardinals before Week 9 last year and immediately made his mark on the offense, putting up 162 all-purpose yards and a TD on the ground. Later that same season in Weeks 15-17, he amassed 363 rushing yards along with 7 TDs over those 3 games. It was hard to believe, but those points were very real. Especially to fantasy team managers that were playing against Drake late in the post-season. So far this year, though, he is the #24 RB overall with 32.4 fantasy points (half PPR) which is an average of 10.8 per game. For a running back being drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round earlier this year, that is very disappointing. Let us look at the first 3 games of the 2020 season:

Week 1 (@ SF): 16/60 rushing, 1 TD, 2/5 receiving, 0 TDs – 13.5 fpts

Week 2 (vs. WAS): 20/86 rushing, 0 TDs, 2/9 receiving, 0 TDs – 10.5 fpts

Week 3 (vs. DET): 18/73 rushing, 0 TDs, 1/6 receiving, 0 TDs – 8.4 fpts

What can we learn from this information… well, his amount of touches has been consistent – averaging around 20 per game, so he has the opportunities available to him. He has not gotten very much work in the passing game with Chase Edmonds being a factor (8 receptions including 1 rec. TD in the first 3 games), but the major problem with fantasy production has been his inability to break big plays during the game. This may all change this week, of course. Going up against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 provides a terrific matchup. The Panthers are giving up 32.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. If Drake cannot snap out of this funk in Week 4, his value will plummet, and we may see Edmonds start to chip away at his touches. If I had to bet money on this matchup, though, and I basically am since I’m both playing him and playing against him in multiple fantasy matchups this week, I would say we’re about to see Drake’s biggest game of the season. Could be 15-20 fantasy points in this trend-breaker.

Robby Anderson (WR, CAR) – A brand new weapon for the Panthers, Anderson had more than 100 yards in both weeks 1 and 2. The tallest of the starting receivers in Carolina at 6’3” and also coming with a bonus sub-4.4 40-yard dash that we saw often with his time on the Jets.

Week 1 (vs. LV): 6/8, 114 yds, 1 TD – 22.4 fpts

Week 2 (@ TB): 9/10, 109 yds, 0 TD – 13.4 fpts

Week 3 (@ LAC): 5/5, 55 yds, 0 TD – 8 fpts

With the Chargers focusing on taking D.J. Moore away, Anderson again took a large amount of the team’s targets (the most, actually) and was able to haul in all of them for 5 receptions. The Panthers were able to cruise to a victory using mostly Mike Davis and Joey Slye, but we should continue to see Anderson utilized in the passing game and developing more chemistry with Bridgewater from game to game. Anderson is being used constantly on this team and less of the boom/bust target he was on the Jets, so he seems to be a quality WR3 candidate going forward. His next matchup in Week 4 is against a stingy Arizona passing defense allowing only 15.5 fantasy points per game to WRs, but Week 5 looks like a much tastier matchup against the Falcons who have the 3^rd worst passing D in the league.

Four weeks into the NFL season and most of us have experienced at least some upheaval when it comes to our starting lineups. Here, we have six sleeper picks for you. These are guys that are buried on your bench, or perhaps still on the waiver wire, who can deliver the promise of a top-10 performance in Week 5. Remember, I said promise, not guarantee.

Jason:

• James Conner (vs SF) - Last week Conner was the RB8, the week before he was the RB12. The 49ers are giving up the 10th most points to opposing RBs. The 49ers are either going to roll out an injury-hobbled Jimmy G, or Trey Lance in his first NFL start. Either way, the league’s highest scoring offense will be just fine and the Cardinals, who have scored at least 31 points every week, could easily find themselves with clock to burn in garbage time. So, even though Conner is not doing much with the decent amount of carries he’s getting, he is finding the end zone lately. It seems like the short yardage work is going to go his way for now, instead of Kyler Murray’s - which is a smart way to keep your QB healthy.

• Kadarius Toney (@ DAL) - Last week, the Giants had two of their starting WRs, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, out with injury. The result was that the Giants hadtheir best passing performance of the season, and it wasn’t even close. Kadarius Toney led the team in targets with 9, catching 6 of them for 78 yards. Toney gets to play the Cowboys this year, who are giving up the 3rd most points to opposing WRs through 4 games. Toney should get peppered with targets once again, either from the Giants keeping pace with the Cowboys, or just trying to catch up if it’s a blowout. Either way, it’s a prime spot for Toney to break out and also find the end zone for the first time.

• Zack Moss (@ KC) - After being inactive for Week 1, Moss has had a very steady fantasy season. He has scored a touchdown in each of the last 3 games. This week he goes up against yet another defense that is giving up top 10 fantasy points to opposing RBs. The Chiefs are 5th on that list, and really just giving up tons of points to everyone so far this year. Moss has slowly gained more of a share of the carries in the Buffalo backfield, and if I had to pick between him and Devin Singletary, I’m going with Moss to be the guy to have the big game against Kansas City. The touchdown streak continues, the Bills keep rolling and will put up another 40 against the Chiefs (their average score during this winning streak is 39.3).

Dave:

• Michael Carter (@ ATL) - As predicted by many in the fantasy football community earlier this year, Michael Carter has begun to take over the Jets’ backfield snaps from Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman. He had a season-high 13 attempts last week against the Titans, but was only able to put up 9.4 points against the middling rushing defense (including his first NFL touchdown). Good news ahead for Carter, though. He’ll be going up against the Falcons in Week 5 who have been giving up an average of 19.9 points per week to opposing RBs. It’s not likely that Carter starts to see more passing down work, but the momentum looks good to me at the moment - coming off their first win of the season in overtime and finally all of their receivers healthy at one time could be just the combination of fairy dust necessary for Carter’s breakout performance.

• Laviska Shenault (vs TEN) - Unfortunately, D.J. Chark was injured on the fourth play of the game last week against the Bengals, getting carted off the field with what was later determined to be a broken left ankle. It’s not likely that we’ll be seeing him for the rest of the season, which opens up the #1 WR spot on the Jaguars for second-year receiver Shenault. While it’s true that he only has the second-most targets on the team so far this season with 28 to Marvin Jones’s 31, a quick glance at the trajectory of their trending statistics reveals that Jones has had fewer targets and less fantasy production each of the past 3 weeks, whereas Shenault has registered an increase in receptions, yardage, and fantasy points over the same time period. A clear indication of how his usage will trend moving forward, especially with Chark’s injury. Trevor Lawrence leaned on Shenault heavily last week and will continue to do so against Tennessee’s league-worst passing defense, currently allowing 36.1 fantasy points per game on average.

• Robby Anderson (vs PHI) - Historically considered by many to be your classic boom-or-bust fantasy option, Anderson has already showcased his deep field abilities this year in week 1 with a 57-yard TD from current QB and former teammate Sam Darnold. So that’s not at all in question. No, the issue is more about Anderson’s consistency of play and whether or not he can get into the same rhythm with Darnold as he did with Teddy Bridgewater under center in 2020. He had 95 receptions for over 1,000 yards last season. This week’s matchup against the Eagles is a positive one for Anderson, with the Philadelphia passing defense on the wrong side of good so far this season, and his targets per game trending up from 3 to 6 to 11 if you discount the Houston win (26-9) in week 3 as a game that didn’t require a lot of field stretching to put to pasture. It’s clear that D.J. Moore has solidified his position as the WR1 in Carolina, but there is room on this offense for Anderson to succeed as well.