Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

On this episode of the Fantasy Finish Line podcast - your hosts Jason Evans and David Biggs will get into the weeds on 2nd year WRs - who is predicted to perform at a high level, who may be good value picks for the later rounds of your draft as bench depth, and who you should stay away from. We'll also touch on some fantasy red flags. When do you want to avoid drafting and/or starting players on a weekly basis? Stay on top of the latest news and analysis by listening to the show!

This video/podcast will go live at 9pm CT on Wednesday, September 1, 2021 - it will also be available on all major podcast channels and remain available on YouTube for later review and comments. Join us live and add your comments/questions to the show!

This video features the songs and artists listed below, available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial license:
- Various original music by David Biggs

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Over the years, the "third-year breakout" WR has turned into the "second-year breakout". Last season featured a great bunch of rookies that broke out right away. These are 5 guys we know well from their productive rookie seasons - all with WR1 upside, over 150 fpts, and 2+ pts/touch over the last year, along with a couple of guys on the bubble.

Justin Jefferson (ADP WR7)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 125 targets Jefferson had 88 receptions for 1400 yards and 7 TDs. 1 fumble. 230.2 fpts, 2.58 pts/touch. 

Jefferson’s 2020 season was certainly the ceiling of what you can expect from any rookie performance. With his ADP where it is this year, he’s being drafted as though he will repeat last year’s performance. While it’s hard to see Jefferson improving on his points per touch number or his yardage number, there is a little bit of room to increase his targets and TDs. If you are not put off by the vaccine disconnect between the locker room and the head coach in Minnesota, then by all means, Jefferson deserves to be drafted as a top 10 WR.

CeeDee Lamb (ADP WR12)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 111 targets Lamb racked up 74 receptions for 935 yards and 5 TDs. 10 rushes for 82 yards, and 1 TD. 2 fumbles. 180.7 fpts, 2.15 pts/touch.

In 2020, Lamb did not record a 100-yard game once Dak Prescott went down for the season. He did, however, score 3 of his 5 touchdowns, so his knack for finding the end zone really has me encouraged. This season he will be the #1 WR on the Cowboys from week 1, so an increase in his targets should be a given, and his yardage should really get a healthy boost with Dak throwing the ball all season long. Lamb finished as the WR20 last year, so his bump in ADP this season seems to be just right. The only thing that would keep me from drafting him is that he will probably wind up going even earlier due to the Hard Knocks effect giving him an artificial boost.

Brandon Aiyuk (ADP WR23)

2020 Stats: 12 games, on 96 targets Aiyuk totaled 60 receptions for 748 yards and 5 TDs. 6 rushes for 77 yards, and 2 TDs. 154.5 fpts, 2.34 pts/touch.

Aiyuk is a little more volatile week to week compared to the previous two players, and I attribute this to the dominant running game in SF. His points per touch is really stunning but was boosted by his rushing stats. Last season he had 3 receptions or fewer in 5 of his 12 games - only one of those games produced a double-digit performance. This season, with Kittle back in the mix, as well as a top-tier rookie RB in Trey Sermon, I’m not certain that Aiyuk can overcome the volatility he saw last year. I expect some of his games to feature very little usage, however, if he is in line for 80 receptions (instead of last year’s 60) under a full load of games, that should bring him easily into the realm of a top 20 WR (last year’s WR20 scored 180 points, Lamb).

Tee Higgins (ADP WR24)

2020 Stats: 16 games, with 108 targets Higgins had 67 receptions for 908 yards and 6 TDs. 1 fumble. 161.1 fpts, 2.24 pts/touch.

Higgins has another rookie joining his WR group this year, but Ja’Marr Chase has struggled mightily in the preseason and will need time to adjust to the NFL, leaving Higgins and Boyd to carry the load in Cincy. Higgins did not see much of a drop in production once Burrow went down last season, so I would expect to see a similar stat line this season compared to last year, with a modest improvement for being a second-year player and much more familiar with the offense they’re running. Last year, Higgins finished as the WR30, so his ADP of WR24 is about as optimistic as I am willing to go for him this year. If you can get him in that spot or a few lower, then go for but, but I do not recommend reaching above WR24 for Higgins.

Chase Claypool (ADP WR25)

2020 Stats: G16, from 109 targets Claypool put up 62 receptions for 873 yards and 9 TDs. Also had 2 rushing TDs and 3 fumbles. 183.9 fpts, 2.55 pts/touch.

Claypool’s 11 total TDs last year led all rookies in this group, thus boosting his visibility in fantasy and certainly helping out his points per touch. Expecting Claypool to reproduce his touchdown total is wishful thinking at best, so let’s assume there’s a small regression there. Claypool finished as the WR19 in points for last year, so dropping him down to WR25 on the ADP tracks with this regression. Ideally, for him, the Steelers offense will see an improvement - they were 12th in points and 24th in yards, so again, their scoring outpaced their actual offense and some kind of regression is to be expected. Best case scenario, the yardage increases, and the points do not dip by much at all. 

Close but no cigar… guys that aren’t quite there yet.

Jerry Jeudy (ADP WR30)

2020 Stats: 16 games, over 113 targets Jeudy brought in 52 receptions for 856 yards and 3 TDs. 2 fumbles. 131.6fpts, 2.53 pts/touch.

Jeudy actually saw a consistent amount of targets last season, with only 1 game being below 4 targets. His 16+ yards per reception are what help keep his points per touch in the elite group, but a catch rate of only 46% severely limited his ceiling in 2020. I expect this to go up with Teddy Bridgewater (66.5% completion rate) as his starting QB. You may look at Bridgewater over Lock as a bad thing for a downfield receiver like Jeudy, but don’t be fooled. In 2020, Bridgewater averaged 7.6 yards per attempt, while Lock was a full yard worse, 6.6 Y/A for his 2020 season. Jeudy will be just fine with Bridgewater (ignore what I said about this on earlier podcasts). Jeudy finished last year as the WR44, so him being drafted all the way up at WR30 shows optimism on the public’s behalf that Jeudy will get the ball in his hands more reliably than last year, and will probably score more touchdowns to boot. He’s a good value at WR30, though I wouldn’t reach past maybe WR28 for him.

Laviska Shenault (ADP WR42)

2020 Stats: G14, on 79 targets Shenault notched 58 receptions for 600 yards and 5 TDs. Also 18 rushes for 91 yards. 128.1 fpts, 1.69 pts/touch.

Shenault definitely trails this group of rookies statistically, coming in way behind the rest in terms of points per touch. He’s also going to be in a new offense with new HC Urban Meyer, and he has Marvin Jones, the Jags FA acquisition, as someone to soak up targets as well. Shenault has yet to fully break out - his career-high is just 86 yards, so it’s certainly possible that we see him take the next step this season. Since he’s got a new QB, a new coach, and a new WR presumably ahead of him in the pecking order, I don’t expect that step forward to be very large. Shenault finished as the WR47 last year, so going at 42 this year looks like good value to me. I wouldn’t mind taking him as high as WR40, though honestly, it’s still anyone’s guess as to what the Jaguars offense will look like after the super vanilla looks they showed us in the preseason.

Four weeks into the NFL season and most of us have experienced at least some upheaval when it comes to our starting lineups. Here, we have six sleeper picks for you. These are guys that are buried on your bench, or perhaps still on the waiver wire, who can deliver the promise of a top-10 performance in Week 5. Remember, I said promise, not guarantee.

Jason:

• James Conner (vs SF) - Last week Conner was the RB8, the week before he was the RB12. The 49ers are giving up the 10th most points to opposing RBs. The 49ers are either going to roll out an injury-hobbled Jimmy G, or Trey Lance in his first NFL start. Either way, the league’s highest scoring offense will be just fine and the Cardinals, who have scored at least 31 points every week, could easily find themselves with clock to burn in garbage time. So, even though Conner is not doing much with the decent amount of carries he’s getting, he is finding the end zone lately. It seems like the short yardage work is going to go his way for now, instead of Kyler Murray’s - which is a smart way to keep your QB healthy.

• Kadarius Toney (@ DAL) - Last week, the Giants had two of their starting WRs, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, out with injury. The result was that the Giants hadtheir best passing performance of the season, and it wasn’t even close. Kadarius Toney led the team in targets with 9, catching 6 of them for 78 yards. Toney gets to play the Cowboys this year, who are giving up the 3rd most points to opposing WRs through 4 games. Toney should get peppered with targets once again, either from the Giants keeping pace with the Cowboys, or just trying to catch up if it’s a blowout. Either way, it’s a prime spot for Toney to break out and also find the end zone for the first time.

• Zack Moss (@ KC) - After being inactive for Week 1, Moss has had a very steady fantasy season. He has scored a touchdown in each of the last 3 games. This week he goes up against yet another defense that is giving up top 10 fantasy points to opposing RBs. The Chiefs are 5th on that list, and really just giving up tons of points to everyone so far this year. Moss has slowly gained more of a share of the carries in the Buffalo backfield, and if I had to pick between him and Devin Singletary, I’m going with Moss to be the guy to have the big game against Kansas City. The touchdown streak continues, the Bills keep rolling and will put up another 40 against the Chiefs (their average score during this winning streak is 39.3).

Dave:

• Michael Carter (@ ATL) - As predicted by many in the fantasy football community earlier this year, Michael Carter has begun to take over the Jets’ backfield snaps from Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman. He had a season-high 13 attempts last week against the Titans, but was only able to put up 9.4 points against the middling rushing defense (including his first NFL touchdown). Good news ahead for Carter, though. He’ll be going up against the Falcons in Week 5 who have been giving up an average of 19.9 points per week to opposing RBs. It’s not likely that Carter starts to see more passing down work, but the momentum looks good to me at the moment - coming off their first win of the season in overtime and finally all of their receivers healthy at one time could be just the combination of fairy dust necessary for Carter’s breakout performance.

• Laviska Shenault (vs TEN) - Unfortunately, D.J. Chark was injured on the fourth play of the game last week against the Bengals, getting carted off the field with what was later determined to be a broken left ankle. It’s not likely that we’ll be seeing him for the rest of the season, which opens up the #1 WR spot on the Jaguars for second-year receiver Shenault. While it’s true that he only has the second-most targets on the team so far this season with 28 to Marvin Jones’s 31, a quick glance at the trajectory of their trending statistics reveals that Jones has had fewer targets and less fantasy production each of the past 3 weeks, whereas Shenault has registered an increase in receptions, yardage, and fantasy points over the same time period. A clear indication of how his usage will trend moving forward, especially with Chark’s injury. Trevor Lawrence leaned on Shenault heavily last week and will continue to do so against Tennessee’s league-worst passing defense, currently allowing 36.1 fantasy points per game on average.

• Robby Anderson (vs PHI) - Historically considered by many to be your classic boom-or-bust fantasy option, Anderson has already showcased his deep field abilities this year in week 1 with a 57-yard TD from current QB and former teammate Sam Darnold. So that’s not at all in question. No, the issue is more about Anderson’s consistency of play and whether or not he can get into the same rhythm with Darnold as he did with Teddy Bridgewater under center in 2020. He had 95 receptions for over 1,000 yards last season. This week’s matchup against the Eagles is a positive one for Anderson, with the Philadelphia passing defense on the wrong side of good so far this season, and his targets per game trending up from 3 to 6 to 11 if you discount the Houston win (26-9) in week 3 as a game that didn’t require a lot of field stretching to put to pasture. It’s clear that D.J. Moore has solidified his position as the WR1 in Carolina, but there is room on this offense for Anderson to succeed as well.