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The 2020 fantasy football season is over - and from the dust of its brutal stampede through 16 weeks of injuries, surprises, and disappointments rises the fantasy post-season games that crop up around this time. We've discussed them at length on our podcast and if you have entered one or more of them this year in order to enjoy that last gasp of fantasy football before the final door closes, you'll need some help in formulating your squad. Here are my picks for the rest of the playoffs, going all the way up through the Super Bowl. Baked in are the specific team's chances (in my estimation) of making it to subsequent rounds. These rankings will continue change throughout the post-season, but please let their current state be a good baseline starting point for any remaining drafts you may have, and good luck to you!

Top guys to highlight? Derrick Henry, Chris Godwin, and Jared Cook. All of them on teams that I expect to win this week. Some sleeper candidates include Zack Moss, Emmanuel Sanders, and Robert Tonyan.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The season is almost upon us. The NFL season kicks off Thursday, but if you’re like me you’ve likely put off most of your redraft fantasy drafts as long as possible in these uncertain COVID times. I’m guessing a large portion of fantasy leagues will be drafting over the long holiday weekend or early next week, and I wanted to give you some last minute tips on some rookies that you may not be as familiar with. The lists below are by no means a straight ranking of the rookies, rather it’s a look at which guys I am willing to reach for, which guys are a little too rich for my blood, and which guys I think are priced just about right based on FantasyPros average draft position. Let’s dive in…

Guys I’m buying:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Average Draft Postion: QB28): Recent camp headlines have made it clear that Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to be starting for Miami week 1, but it’s only a matter of time before Tua takes over under center. If you’re in superflex or 2-quarterback leagues, Tua is a guy you can draft as a QB3 at a deep discount who has a chance to smash once he gets onto the field. He’s an efficient and accurate passer in the mold of a young Drew Brees, and he’s currently being drafted later than Derek Carr, Gardner Minshew and Teddy Bridgewater. When you’re drafting that far down, I want the upside of the rookie over the known limitations of the other options.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (ADP: RB 26): An injury to Darrell Henderson is making it clear that Akers is the Rams’ back that you want for fantasy. He’s been a star in camp so far, and the Sean McVay offense is a good one for running back production. Todd Gurley was obviously an elite talent at the position, but he finished RB1, RB1, and RB12 in his 3 years under McVay and was clearly just a shell of himself in year 3. In his 3 years as Washington’s offensive coordinator McVay also got a top-15 season out of Alfred Morris and a top-25 season out of Robert Kelley. Akers should be better than either of those players. If he takes the job and runs with it, he has true RB1 upside that you can draft outside of the top-50 overall picks.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (ADP: RB32): Clyde Edwards-Helaire has gotten a lot of press for falling into the absolute best scheme fit possible for him, but people have been ignoring that basically the same thing happened to Dobbins. Yes Mark Ingram is still in Baltimore for this season and Dobbins true upside may be a year away, but Gus Edwards carried the ball 133 times last season and the talent gap between Ingram and Dobbins isn’t as big as the gap between Ingram and Edwards. Dobbins is going to be a factor this season. I view him as someone who is likely to finish as a top-30 back and would have borderline RB1 upside this year if anything happens to Ingram. I’d much rather leave a draft with Dobbins than the guys going right in front of him – Jordan Howard, Kareem Hunt, Ronald Jones (this was written before the Fournette news).

RB Zack Moss, BUF (ADP: RB41): It appears Moss’s master plan of greasing up every football that Devin Singletary uses in practice is working, as Singletary’s summer fumbling woes have given Moss a leg-up over the incumbent for early-down and goal line work. The Bills still project to be a run-first football team despite the addition of Stefon Diggs, and there should be ample goal-line opportunities for Moss if he can cash them in. Frank Gore carried the ball 10 times from the 3-yard line or closer last season, but totaled zero yards and scored just 2 touchdowns on those attempts. Moss should play a similar role to the one Gore did last season, and if the Bills’ offense takes a step forward double-digit scores are not out of the question for him. You should be targeting Moss as an RB3 with upside for more, especially in half- and non-PPR formats.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (ADP: RB50): Washington surprisingly moved on from Adrian Peterson just a week before the season kicks off, and that can’t be anything but good news for Gibson. Peyton Barber is still a threat to handle the early-down work, but Barber isn’t anything special and given Gibson’s pass-catching skills he will probably finish the year as the top fantasy running back on the team. JD McKissic has shown himself to be a capable 3^rd down back, and Bryce Love was explosive in college, but all signs in camp pointed to Gibson being ahead of them both on the depth chart. New head coach Ron Rivera and new offensive coordinator Scott Turner were both in Carolina last year, and they’ve compared Gibson’s dual-threat capabilities to those of Christian McCaffrey. That’s obvious hyperbole, but I think Gibson will get every opportunity to be the lead back in this offense, and is likely to finish as a top-30 running back that you can get quite a bit later than that. Be warned though: the Peterson news is going to move that ADP up in the coming days.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (ADP: RB68): I honestly don’t know how to explain why Josh Kelley is being drafted later than AJ Dillon and Ke’Shawn Vaughn in redraft leagues. The Chargers lost Melvin Gordon in free agency this offseason, and all reports out of camp are that Kelley is going to be the guy who picks up most of the work that he left behind. Austin Ekeler is obviously a fantasy stud who will be worth the draft capital it costs to draft him, but he shouldn’t be a 20-touch per game kind of back, and the Chargers realize that. His efficiency as a runner last year was underwhelming as he averaged more than 4 yards per carry in just 5 out of 16 games (and fewer than 3 yards per carry 7 times). Ekeler’s value comes from his work in the passing game. I expect Kelley will open the year splitting early down work with Ekeler and growing into a bigger role as the season goes on. The rookie is an above average athlete (68^th percentile SPARQ-x score) who posted over 1,000 yards in both of his college seasons at UCLA. To give you a little context on just how low RB68 is, Justin Jackson finished last season with 222 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns and was the RB71 in non-PPR scoring. Kelley is a slam dunk to outproduce his ADP, and I expect he’ll do it by a lot. You should be looking to draft him as an RB4 and reaping the rewards as his role grows.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (ADP: WR67): Mims had the unfortunate luck of pulling a hamstring the day before training camp started, but he returned to practice this week and expects to be healthy enough to suit up week one. It’ll likely take him a few weeks to work his way into the starting lineup after missing so much practice time, but there is almost NO wide receiver talent ahead of him on the depth chart outside of slot maven Jamison Crowder. The rest of the options to play on the outside consist of Breshad Perriman who currently is dealing with a knee injury that could keep him out a bit, journeymen Chris Hogan & Donte Moncrief, and a trio of replacement-level players who may not even make the roster (Josh Malone, Vyncint Smith and Jehu Chesson). Mims is big, fast, and has excellent hands and body control. He improved his game throughout his college career and landed on a team that projects to be throwing a ton. He’s a natural fit as a deep threat who should complement Crowder’s short game well. He’ll be a great best-ball option and is a guy you should be targeting late in drafts, especially ones that are not full PPR leagues.

WR Bryan Edwards, LVR (ADP: WR72): Edwards’ college stats don’t jump off the page at you, never reaching 900 yards in any season, but South Carolina only reached 3,000 passing yards once in his 4 seasons there. As a freshman, Edwards had 21% of the team’s receiving yards in an offense that also featured Deebo Samuel and Hayden Hurst, and in the 10 games he played last year he totaled a whopping 35% of the team receiving yards. The former Gamecock should start right away in Las Vegas and will be a better option in the intermediate part of the field than Henry Ruggs or Hunter Renfrow. He’s already drawn rave reviews from his new QB Derek Carr, who has compared Edwards to his college teammate Davante Adams and former pro teammate James Jones. Edwards has a chance to be a total package alpha receiver in his career, and although he walks into a crowded group of pass catchers (Ruggs, Renfrow, Darren Waller, Jason Witten, Jalen Richard, etc.) he should get a chance to showcase his potential this year. There is a real chance that he finishes as the top fantasy WR on the Raiders this season, and you can get him in the late rounds of your draft.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (ADP: WR73): Shenault was long considered to be among the best wide receiver prospects in this class and a potential top-20 overall draft pick entering the 2019 season, but lackluster production in 2019 and injury woes drove his stock down a bit. He landed on what should be a miserably bad team, but that should afford him plenty of opportunities to play. He’s built like a running back but stands 6’2” and is dangerous with the ball in the open field. He was used in a lot of different ways in college (he had 9 more college rushing attempts than Antonio Gibson), and that versatility should make him a valuable part of a Jaguars’ offense that will be desperately looking for playmakers outside of DJ Chark. He should be available in the last couple rounds in most redraft leagues and is likely to have a big role as a rookie.

Guys I’m selling:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (ADP: RB8): I understand the love for CEH. He landed in what seems like a dream spot, playing in the most explosive offense in the NFL that seems tailor-made for his skill set, and to top it off the returning starter at his position opted out of the 2020 season. “RB1!” “Take him in the first round!” Not so fast, I say. CEH posted just 1 productive college season and doesn’t have the freakish athletic profile of top backs like Saquon, Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry. He’ll certainly play right away in Kansas City, but he’s being drafted as though he’ll be an automatic workhorse back when it still remains to be seen if that’s the case. I do believe that Edwards-Helaire should be going in the top-20 picks in most drafts, but to get him in most leagues you’ll have to reach into the first round to do it. That’s a price I’m not willing to pay at this point. I’d rather take a top WR and get a player like Miles Sanders or Kenyan Drake in the 2^nd or Austin Ekeler in the 3^rd who can put up similar production at a lower cost.

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (ADP: RB46): Vaughn was widely expected to compete with Ronald Jones for the starting job in Tampa this season, but that outlook has changed drastically in recent weeks with the signings of LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette. The Fournette signing just happened, so I would expect Vaughn’s ADP to take a significant tumble in the next few days. He’ll likely be limited to special teams for much of his rookie season barring injuries ahead of him.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (ADP: RB52): Dillon has been a popular name this summer after photos surfaced showing off his ridiculous tree trunk thighs in camp (basically the opposite of the kind of camp photos we were used to with Eddie Lacy). Despite how he looks in shorts, Dillon will be hard-pressed to make a huge impact for fantasy purposes this year. He’s likely going to eat into Jamaal Williams workload, but I don’t expect Williams to go away entirely. Aaron Jones is the Green Bay back you want, and I’d expect Dillon’s presence to make both Williams and Dillon bad bets to finish as productive fantasy backs. Williams has never finished higher than RB29 without Dillon to compete with. I’d steer clear of both.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (ADP: WR41): Jeudy is an outstanding talent, but he goes to an offense that ranked 27^th in passing attempts last season and is likely to lean on the run game again after adding Melvin Gordon to their backfield mix. Courtland Sutton is essentially a lock for 120+ targets, and Noah Fant should see a nice bump in volume as well. I’d expect Jeudy to wind up somewhere around 80 targets assuming health. 67 players had more than 80 targets last season, and we still aren’t certain whether or not Drew Lock is any good. I’m not too keen on drafting Jeudy at his current ADP.

WR Henry Ruggs, LVR (ADP: WR47): Ruggs was the first wide receiver taken in the NFL draft this year, but he isn’t the best one taken in the first round. He’s just the fastest. The Raiders will certainly get him involved in the offense after drafting him so high, and he is projected to open the season as a starter after Tyrell Williams had season-ending labrum surgery. The problem for Ruggs is that Derek Carr is notorious for not throwing the ball deep, and the deep ball is going to be the best opportunity for Ruggs to pile up fantasy points. Bryan Edwards is a more well-rounded wide receiver, and Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are better possession options in the short part of the field. Unless Carr changes his approach and starts throwing deep, or Gruden finds creative ways to scheme the ball to Ruggs, it’ll be hard for him to live up to the draft capital you’d have to spend on him.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (ADP: TE29): Kmet is the only rookie tight end being drafted in the top-30 at the position, but I would be surprised if he finishes as the top scoring rookie tight end this year. Old man Jimmy Graham has been raved about as the best player at Bears’ camp and is likely going to be the starting tight end, and there are plenty of other tight ends on the roster who could factor in as well including Demetrius Harris and Adam Shaheen. I just don’t see an obvious path to a lot of early playing time for Kmet. The Bears should still be in win-now mode (despite the QB situation) and a rookie tight end playing a bunch doesn’t make sense with so many capable vets on the roster.

Guys that are priced correctly:

These are players that are certainly worth drafting at their current ADP and may have upside for more, but also carry enough risk that I would be hesitant to reach too far for them. If you really like a player in this group, I wouldn’t fault you for reaching a bit for them to make sure you get them.

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (ADP: QB18): In two quarterback leagues, Burrow is a good player to target as a second QB that you can get a little later who still gives you the upside you get from the QBs that would be going in the 12-15 range. He’s assuredly going to start week 1, and the Bengals do have enough weapons around him for him to succeed. There is always risk with a rookie QB, but Burrow is a gunslinger who will have a long leash and the Bengals will be throwing a lot.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (ADP: RB19): You don’t need me to tell you that Jonathan Taylor is good. In his *worst* college season he ran for 1,977 yards and 13 TDs. He was a monster at Wisconsin. Defenses knew he was getting the ball and still couldn’t stop him. He has monster upside in the NFL as well, but I’m going to throw a little bit of a wet blanket on that upside for this season. The Colts aren’t going to stop using Nyheim Hines on 3^rd downs, so if you’re counting on much receiving production from Taylor you’re hanging your hat on Philip Rivers’ habit of heavily targeting his backs and hoping he catches a lot on early downs. Hines had 64% of the running back targets that Indy backs saw last season. A more likely scenario for Taylor is a dominant rushing season a la Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry finished last season as the RB5, but he also was the unquestioned starter from day one and handled 80% of the Titans’ non-QB rushing attempts. He was also the only top-10 back in PPR scoring that had fewer than 49 targets. Taylor will enter the year splitting the early down work with Marlon Mack, so it’s hard to envision him coming close to what Henry did last year. If you’re a big Taylor fan, I wouldn’t fault you for reaching into the mid-2^nd round to make sure you get him, but know that he most likely won’t be producing what you paid for until the middle of the season.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (ADP: RB29): Like Jonathan Taylor, Swift lands on a team that already has an established starting running back that has been solid, but not great. Kerryon Johnson’s injury history means that there is a solid chance that Swift will have some weeks as the starter, but if KJ stays healthy Swift will most likely work in tandem with him. I like Swift as a player, but Detroit hasn’t had a running back finish in the top-20 fantasy backs since Reggie Bush back in 2013, and I don’t like Swift’s chances of breaking that streak. In the last 4 seasons, 73% of Detroit’s offensive touchdowns have been scored through the air (league average is typically in the low to mid 60s). I’d rather draft Swift than Kerryon Johnson – he’s the more talented back, but I’d prefer a safer option if we’re talking about your #2 running back or a high end RB3.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (ADP: WR38): Lamb is without a doubt the best wide receiver in this rookie class, but the pass-catching group in Dallas is crowded. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are both WR1 types who should command 120 or so targets apiece. Blake Jarwin and Zeke Elliot should combine for another 150. That still leaves room for Lamb to establish himself on the pass-happy Cowboys, but I’m not sure his breakout starts week 1. I think the best plan of attack with Lamb is to let someone else reach for him and then make a deal for him a few weeks into the season if the person who drafted him gets impatient.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (ADP: WR50): Jefferson was a first round draft pick in the NFL draft, but he finds himself opening the season as the WR3 behind Adam Thielen and Bisi Johnson in an offense that had more than 2 receivers on the field on just 25% of their snaps last season. No other team was below 40%. They also ranked 30^th in the league in pass attempts. Offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski bolted for Cleveland, and there should be a little bit of regression to the mean when it comes to their passing volume, but the run-heavy game plan is part of who Mike Zimmer wants this team to be. Jefferson should eventually overtake Bisi Johnson for the starting role opposite Thielen, but how high do you want to reach for a guy who likely won’t be producing like a top-40 WR until the back half of the season?

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (ADP: WR52): I would be talking about Reagor as a player to target in your drafts, but one of the biggest factors working in his favor was the expected early season absence of Alshon Jeffery giving him the opportunity to establish himself in the offense. Instead, Reagor will miss the start of the season with an injury of his own and it’ll be JJ Arcega-Whiteside and John Hightower who should see the increased early opportunity instead. This passing game is still going to run through Zach Ertz, but Reagor was picked in the first round and brings game-breaking speed that the Eagles’ offense was desperate for last season. They’re going to get him on the field when he’s healthy. Three receiver sets should be made up of Jeffery, Reagor and DeSean Jackson for much of the season, and given the health history of the other two Jalen should have plenty of chances to produce. Reagor’s ADP isn’t crazy high, and the upside that he’ll bring in the back half of the season will make him worth the price tag even if he misses the first few games.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (ADP: WR65): WR65 probably feels low given Aiyuk’s likely starting role and the injuries to Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd, but it’s sounding more and more like Samuel will be back by week 2 at the latest and this offense doesn’t run through the wide receivers. The 49ers had the 4^th-fewest pass attempts in the league and the 5^th-lowest wide receiver target share in the league (51%) last season. George Kittle and the running backs should remain very involved in this low-volume passing attack. Aiyuk has forged a nice rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo in camp and has a similar skill set to Deebo’s, but he figures to be the WR2 behind him for much of the season. In this offense, that makes him more of a WR5 for your fantasy team.

Deep League Flyers:

These guys are basically going undrafted in most leagues but may be worth a flyer in really deep leagues or are at least worth monitoring in the early weeks of the season to see what kind of role they have.

RB James Robinson, JAX: Jacksonville dumping Leonard Fournette just days before the season kicks off was a bit of surprise, but it opens the door for several young backs on their roster to get a chance. Reports out of camp suggest that Devine Ozigbo may have the inside track on the early down work, but Ryquell Armstead and Robinson should factor in as well. Armstead was the backup to Fournette last season, but he was placed on the league’s COVID reserve list on Friday opening the door further for the rookie. Robinson went undrafted after running just a 4.64 40-yard dash at the Combine, but he dominated the FCS level with 1,899 rushing yards and 18 TDs last season. He’s worth a late flyer in really deep leagues and worth monitoring early in the year in shallower formats. It’s not impossible that he beats out Ozigbo for the starting job.

WR John Hightower, PHI: Injuries will leave the Eagles’ WR depth chart wide open in the early part of the season with Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor each sidelined for at least the first few weeks. The rest of the depth chart includes DeSean Jackson (33 years old and played just 3 games last year), JJ Arcega-Whiteside (had an extremely disappointing rookie season in 2019), and Greg Ward (AAF star who was serviceable when the team was depleted last year). The Eagles draft strategy at the WR position was clear after they struggled mightily to stretch the field last season. They wanted to add speed, and Hightower brings that. He averaged 18.3 yards per catch at Boise State last year and ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at the Combine. He should see the field early in the year, and if he flashes, he may keep seeing the field.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR: I admittedly wasn’t very high on Jefferson coming out of the draft despite the Rams taking him in the 2^nd round. He’s old for a prospect at 24-years old entering his rookie season. He isn’t a supreme athlete, and he wasn’t overly productive in college (despite playing at an advanced age). He seems like a player best suited to the slot, but that’s also where Cooper Kupp does his best work. This all added up to Van looking like a long shot to see the field much as a rookie but reports out of camp are that he is going to beat out Josh Reynolds for the WR3 role in the offense. He’s the son of former standout NFL WR Shawn Jefferson, and he has the route-running acumen and natural feel for the game of someone who grew up around it. It’s possible the Rams play more 2-tight end sets given the departure of Brandin Cooks and the breakout of Tyler Higbee last season, but only the Bengals spent more snaps in 11 personnel (3-WR) than the Rams last season. Monitor the Rams offense early in the season. If they continue to play a lot of 3-WR sets, Jefferson is going to have some value in most leagues.

TE Devin Asiasi, NE: Rookie tight ends are notoriously poor fantasy producers, and there are a plethora of upside options to target this season among the veteran tight ends, but there might not be another rookie better positioned to produce in year 1 than Asiasi. He was considered mostly a pass-catching tight end when drafted, but his blocking has also drawn raves in camp and the only thing standing between him and a starting role is Matt LaCosse. The Patriots’ offense is light on receiving weapons, and Cam Newton has always liked throwing to his tight ends. Asiasi is no Greg Olsen, but he has a legitimate chance to be a top-20 tight end as a rookie.

That’s all I’ve got for now. I’ll be back next week with a quick look at some week one rookie matchups, but feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or anything you want to yell at me about that’s written above. If you’ve already done your draft, you can use this info to help you target early season trade or waiver wire candidates if another person in your league gets impatient with a slow start. If you haven’t drafted yet, good luck in your drafts and enjoy the holiday weekend. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re on the brink of a new season, albeit a strange one. Stadiums with no fans, the Raiders in Vegas, 14 playoff spots, and no Tom Brady in New England are just a few of the things that will feel strange this year – but football will go on. Of course, there’s always the looming threat of a Covid-19 outbreak derailing things, but I’m going to operate from the optimistic point of view that things will go on as scheduled. If you’re new to the Rookie Report, each week I’ll be breaking down the matchups that the rookie class will be facing and letting you know which ones are good fantasy options and which ones should be avoided. I’ll throw in some sleepers and guys to stash on the bench as well, and I try to cover all of the fantasy relevant rookies each week (kickers excluded). Make sure to read the details on each player and not just what header they’re under since some of these may be format specific. Any players under the same header that play the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week.

The rookies are always a tough group to predict for fantasy production, but week 1 is always tough since we don’t have any on field production to go off of when making decisions. This year we don’t even have preseason games. For some of these predictions you have to read the tea leaves a bit and read between the lines of the coachspeak, and sometimes you just have to trust the talent of the player to win out. With all that in mind, let’s dive in and talk about week 1…

Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): If you have CEH, you likely took him in the first round, so you don’t need me to tell you that you’re starting him every week unless he gives you a reason not to. The Chiefs have the highest projected point total in the league this week at 31.75, and the Texans were in the bottom-6 in the league last year at limiting RB fantasy points. They were especially vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing more receptions per game to backs than every team other than the Colts. There’s no reason to shy away from CEH in DFS lineups despite a $7,000 price tag in DraftKings.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 1: @Jax.): Taylor will be in a prime spot to make a splash in his NFL debut. You likely drafted him as your RB2 unless you started with 3 straight running backs, so you’re probably going to play him regardless of what I write here. I won’t try to stop you. He’ll likely be splitting the backfield work with Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines this week, but the Jaguars were one of the worst defenses in the league against opposing running backs last year and lost Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue and AJ Bouye from that defense in the offseason. They’re projected to be one of the worst teams in the league and are an 8-point home underdog in week one. The Colts should be able to run plenty in this one, and I expect Taylor’s talent to show through even if his opportunities are limited. He’s a solid RB2 option this week.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 1: @LAR): Lamb is the best of the rookie receiver crop in my opinion, and he gets a great opportunity to start proving me right in week 1. The Rams consistently use Jalen Ramsey to shadow the opposing team’s #1 receiver, and with Dallas that means Ramsey will be chasing around Amari Cooper. This will be good news for both Lamb and Michael Gallup who get to face off with Troy Hill and Darious Williams instead. Advantage Cowboys. Despite Zeke Elliott racking up plenty of carries last season, the Cowboys ranked 10^th in pass attempts, 2^nd in passing yards and 5^th in passing TDs in 2019, so there is plenty of volume to go around, and this week that volume should be finding Lamb and Gallup. The Cowboys also have the 3^rd-highest implied point total of the week at 27.5. You may not have drafted Lamb as one of your top 3 wide receivers this season, but this could be a week to get him in the lineup over someone you drafted before him. At just $4,100 in DraftKings, he’s a screaming value for tournaments.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): Akers enters week 1 listed as the number 3 running back on the depth chart with Malcolm Brown as the starter and Darrell Henderson at #2, but I see ‘starter’ as a nominal title for Brown. He’s a guy the team trusts to do the job if the others don’t step up, but he’s not a feature back that you build around. Darrell Henderson is playing catch-up a little bit after being banged up in camp, and I think Akers has a real chance to take over the lead role in week 1. I expect the team will ride whoever gets the hot hand this week, but this is an offense that creates plenty of fantasy production for the running back position. We know that Todd Gurley was an otherworldly talent at his peak, but McVay has also gotten productive fantasy seasons from Alfred Morris and Rob Kelley when he was in Washington, and an incredible 3-game stretch from a seemingly washed up CJ Anderson in LA. Dallas was a middling run defense last season, so if Akers is able to get the bulk of the work this week, he’s got obvious RB2 upside.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): The Jets boasted one of the best run defenses in the league a year ago, but in the offseason they lost two of the guys that were big reasons why they were so effective. CJ Mosley opted out of 2020, and Jamal Adams was dealt to Seattle. Even if the Jets are able to be a solid run defense again without those guys, they’re likely going to be playing from behind so much that the RB counting stats are still going to add up. Moss enters the season expected to be the Bills’ early down running back. The Bills had the 7^th-highest rushing percentage in the league last year, running on 47.5% of their offensive snaps, and they figure to be run-heavy again. I’d expect Moss to finish week 1 around 15 touches, and he’d be first in line for any goal line carries. That puts him firmly on the flex radar in 12-team leagues and is a better play in non-PPR formats.

WR Henry Ruggs, LVR (Wk. 1: @Car.): Ruggs was the first receiver off the board in April, and he’ll open the season as the team’s WR1 with Tyrell Williams out for the year. Ruggs has the speed to be a dangerous deep threat, but with Derek Carr at QB he’ll likely have to make his living on schemed touches in the short part of the field where he creates yards after the catch. As the WR1, I’m sure Jon Gruden will make sure Carr is getting the ball to Ruggs, but the group of pass catchers that thrives in the short part of the field is crowded in Vegas. Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Jalen Richard are all good receivers in that area, so I don’t see Ruggs being a target hog early on. His road to being a fantasy standout will be through creating big plays. He’ll get a chance to do that against a Carolina defense that isn’t terrible against the pass but isn’t imposing either. Ruggs is a boom-or-bust option who is capable of a Marquise Brown style week 1 breakout (Brown went 4-147-2 in week 1 last year), but is also capable of falling short of 40 yards.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Jeudy is an outstanding talent and landed on a team where he’ll walk right into the WR2 role in the offense, but it’s not a high volume passing offense and he’ll likely start the year behind both Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant in the pecking order. That outlook may have changed on Thursday with Sutton suffering a shoulder injury in practice. If Sutton sits, Jeudy could be the WR1 in week 1. No cornerback on the Titans should be capable of stopping Sutton, but they probably won’t be quite as overmatched by Jeudy. Fant should be in line for a nice day as the Titans struggled to contain tight ends last year, allowing the 6^th-most points per game to the position. Keep an eye on the Sutton updates. If Sutton sits or is going to be limited, Jeudy should see enough volume to be a playable WR3 option. If it seems like Sutton is going to be fine, I would probably keep Jeudy benched until we see what his target share looks like as the WR2.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): Aiyuk’s status is still up in the air this week, as is Deebo Samuel’s. If Aiyuk plays and Deebo doesn’t, there should be some consideration for getting Aiyuk in your lineup as a flex option. He may be facing off with Patrick Peterson in that scenario, but Peterson was anything but his typical self after returning from a 6-game suspension to open the 2019 season. He rounded into form late in the year, but Peterson is on the wrong side of 30 and Aiyuk is the type of receiver that can win at all levels of the field. The 49ers’ offense is going to run through George Kittle and their running backs, but they do have an implied point total of 27.25, so it’s likely that *some* receiver puts up a nice fantasy game Sunday. If he plays, Aiyuk is likely to lead the wide receiver group in targets, giving him the best shot of being that guy.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 1: @Was.): Reagor has made a seemingly miraculous recovery from an injury that seemed certain to sideline him for the first week or two, and now it looks like he’s good to go for Sunday. Washington ranked just 27^th in pass defense DVOA last season, and figures to pay extra attention to DeSean Jackson this week after D-Jax torched them in week 1 a year ago. Reagor should operate as the number 2 wide receiver this week and have plenty of chances to make an impact. Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders should factor into the passing game a lot too, but Reagor’s got big upside this week if things break his way. Keep an eye on any injury updates that come out Sunday. There’s always the risk that Reagor will be out there mainly as a decoy, or that he still ends up inactive.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. LAC): I like Burrow’s upside over the course of the year as a QB2, but I think there will be some growing pains in the early part of the season. The Chargers are not an inviting matchup for an NFL debut. They’ve got a solid pass rush anchored by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. No team blitzed less than the Chargers in 2019, and yet they ranked 13^th in the league in QB pressure percentage. It didn’t translate into a lot of sacks, but the addition of Linval Joseph to the middle of the line should help free up the edge rushers to be more disruptive this season. The team will be hurt by the loss of Derwin James to injury, but they still boast one of the best starting pairs of corners in the league in Casey Heyward and Chris Harris. I think there is a good chance the Chargers make Burrow look like a rookie in his debut and would be hesitant to play him in 2 QB leagues if I didn’t have to.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 1: vs. Cle.): If I drafted Dobbins as my RB3 this season, I’d be tempted to play him this week. The Browns ranked 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat last year, and the Ravens are favored by 8 in the opener. There could be some garbage time for Dobbins once the Ravens get out in front, but Baltimore may still try and keep Gus Edwards and/or Justice Hill involved in the run game as well. The official team depth chart listed Dobbins as the 4^th-string back. I expect he’ll work as the number 2 guy behind Mark Ingram but would like to see how the rotation plays out before putting Dobbins in my lineups. I

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Phi.): Gibson has had a ton of buzz around him during camp after Washington cut Adrian Peterson. He’s a versatile player who has drawn comparisons from the coaching staff to Christian McCaffrey. That’s obviously a pretty big stretch, but the head coach and offensive coordinator making the comparison were both in Carolina last year. I think Gibson will be the best fantasy back on the team this year, but I don’t love him for week 1. The Eagles ranked third in run defense DVOA last season, and I expect we’ll see Peyton Barber handle most of the early down work early in the season for Washington. Gibson will also be competing with JD McKissic and Bryce Love for 3^rd-down work. The team is thin at wide receiver, so you could even see Gibson line up in the slot a bit since he played a lot of wide receiver in college. All in all, there’s just too much uncertainty about what his week 1 role will look like to trust him in fantasy lineups.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): Swift has been working through a couple injuries in camp but should be able to suit up on Sunday. The problem is that with the signing of Adrian Peterson this backfield figures to be a three-headed monster, and that’ll be a headache for fantasy players. Swift may get the valuable 3^rd down passing work, but I’d like to see how the workload is divided before relying on any Lions running back in my fantasy lineups. I’d take a wait and see approach with Swift.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 1: @Min.): Dillon enters week 1 listed as the 3^rd running back on the depth chart in Green Bay, and while I would normally tell you to ignore the official team depth charts at this point, this one feels like how it’ll actually play out on the field. I’d expect Aaron Jones to be the clear lead back with a mix of Jamaal Williams and Dillon spelling him for some early down work. The best bet for Dillon getting a healthy workload would be garbage time in a blowout win, but that seems unlikely with the Vikings favored by 3. I’d keep Dillon away from your lineups.

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 1: @NO): In case you drafted Vaughn early and have been living under a rock in recent weeks, the signings of Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy will make Vaughn mostly useless for now in fantasy leagues. He’ll likely be limited to special teams early in the season and won’t have much value without injuries in front of him. Feel free to drop him outside of dynasty leagues.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 1: @Jax.): Pittman should see the field quite a bit in week 1, but I don’t expect it to translate into fantasy production just yet. The Colts played 61% of their snaps last season in 11 personnel (3 WR), and their 3-WR sets to open the year should feature Pittman, TY Hilton and Parris Campbell, but the bulk of the passing volume should go through Hilton and Campbell (along with Jack Doyle and Nyheim Hines). The Colts are an 8-point road favorite this week, and I’d expect them to lean heavily on the running game which will limit how many targets there are to go around. If Pittman makes it to even 5 targets, I’d consider his week 1 to be a successful one.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 1: @NYG): The Steelers have spent much of the summer talking up Claypool, but this is an offense with a lot of mouths to feed. The return of Ben Roethlisberger should make this a much more fantasy-friendly offense than it was last year, but Claypool enters the season as no higher than 4^th in the target pecking order. The Steelers do have a favorable matchup this week and have the 5^th-highest implied total of the week, and Big Ben hasn’t really played much with James Washington or Diontae Johnson, so if you want to roll the dice on Claypool in a DFS tournament (just a $3,000 price tag in DraftKings) I wouldn’t fault you for it. For season-long leagues you should have safer options for week 1.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Buf.): It sounds like Mims is going to play this week, but after missing much of camp with a hamstring injury, I wouldn’t count on him getting a full workload in this one. It also remains to be seen which outside receiver will tangle with standout corner Tre’Davious White. Breshad Perriman is coming off an injury of his own, and both players make for poor options against a tough Bills defense with the Jets having an implied point total of just 16.5 points.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. GB): Jefferson is a very talented receiver, and the Vikings obviously believe in him after drafting him in the first round in April, but he’ll likely open the season splitting WR2 snaps with Bisi Johnson. The Vikings play with 3 WRs less often than any other team in the league. They consistently operate out of a 2 tight end base set with Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. Jefferson will eventually work his way past Bisi, but I’d want to see what kind of opportunities he gets early on before trusting him in my fantasy lineup. His week one matchup isn’t all that appealing either. Green Bay is one of just 2 teams in the league that allowed less than 10 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers last year.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. LAC): With AJ Green expected to play week 1, it’ll be hard for Higgins to get on the field much. It looks like Green, Tyler Boyd and Auden Tate will be the trio on the field in 3 wide receiver sets, and Higgins will be competing with John Ross for any leftover reps. There’s no reason to consider Higgins for week 1.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 1: @Det.): Kmet was the first tight end drafted in April, but he doesn’t figure to play a large role early in his rookie season. He’ll open the season behind at least Jimmy Graham on the depth chart, and possibly Demetrius Harris as well. The Lions were a middle of the pack defense against tight ends a year ago, but Kmet shouldn’t be a consideration in any formats this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 1: @NE): I don’t list Tua here with any thoughts of you using him in week 1. I mention him in case you’re in a 2-QB league where he’s sitting on the waiver wire. He’s going to take over for Fitzpatrick at some point this season, and when he does he’s going to have big-time upside. He’s worth stashing if you have the roster spot in superflex and 2-QB leagues. I would rather have Tua than fellow rookie Justin Herbert.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Kelley enters week 1 as the likely backup to Austin Ekeler, but that role will probably come with 10-12 touches and possibly more if the Chargers pull away. Ekeler isn’t built to be a 20+ touch per game kind of back and the Chargers are shifting to a more run-heavy approach this season with Philip Rivers gone. Kelley looks like the back who will pick up the slack the Melvin Gordon left behind. Only 4 teams allowed more rushing yards last season than the Bengals, and while Cincy could be improved with the addition of DJ Reader to their D-line, I expect they’ll still find themselves in a lot of negative game scripts. For week 1, Ekeler has RB1 upside, but Kelley isn’t a terrible option as a flex in deep leagues. He’s someone you should be picking up everywhere if he’s on the waiver wire. I expect his role will grow as the season progresses.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): What a difference a week makes for Robinson. A week ago Robinson looked like he was going the be the number 4 or 5 running back on the depth chart, but since then Leonard Fournette was cut, Ryquell Armstead went back on the Covid-reserve list, and Devine Ozigbo landed on IR. Robinson is suddenly the projected starter this week. Chris Thompson will handle most of the 3^rd down work, but Robinson is going to be on the field a lot. The Colts didn’t give up many running back touchdowns last season (6), but they gave up plenty of yards to them, both on the ground and through the air. The Jaguars project to be playing from behind in this one, so Chris Thompson is probably the guy that will lead this backfield in fantasy scoring this week, but in deep leagues a starting running back is hard to ignore. Robinson certainly shouldn’t be on your waiver wire and he has 10+ point upside this week.

WR Bryan Edwards, LVR (Wk. 1: @Car.): Ruggs is the guy with the draft capital, but Bryan Edwards may emerge as the alpha receiver on this Vegas team. He excels in the intermediate part of the field where few other receivers on the team do, and he’s easily the most physical of their receivers, which will serve him well in the red zone. His QB has compared him to former teammates Davante Adams and James Jones, both of whom excel at getting in the end zone. The Raiders have a reasonable implied point total of 25.25 this week, and if I had to bet on any Vegas pass catcher getting in the end zone it would be Edwards. He costs just $4,200 in DraftKings and is very likely to outperform that price tag. He may not get as many targets as Ruggs, but don’t be surprised if he outscores the first rounder in week 1.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): After all of the changes and injuries that have come up for the Jaguars over the last week or 2, about the only thing that seems clear with this offense is that DJ Chark is going to be targeted a lot. I’ll add a second thing here – Laviska Shenault is going to be very involved in this offense. Reports out of camp this week are that the Jaguars are getting VERY creative with the ways they’re using him. He’s a versatile player that lined up all over the field in college and is dynamic with the ball in the open field. I expect Jacksonville to make it a point to get the ball into his hands any way they can, even if it means handing it to him out of the backfield. Viska has a higher DraftKings price tag than some of the other rookies at $4,400, but he could be a really interesting option in limited slate contests. 10 touches isn’t out of the question in week 1.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 1: vs. Chi.): The Lions had a bit of an unpleasant surprise come up late in the week as Kenny Golladay suffered a hamstring injury and is now listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game with the Bears. Danny Amendola has been dealing with a hamstring injury of his own and is questionable for this week as well. If Amendola sits, that leaves just Marvin Jones, Cephus and Marvin Hall as the options at receiver this week. Marvin Jones will clearly be the number one option, but there’s no reason Cephus can’t be number 2. He’s a physical receiver who was singled out by two of the first four cornerbacks drafted in April as the toughest receiver to cover that they faced in their college careers. The Bears were not an easy matchup for wide receivers in 2019, allowing the 5^th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, but losing Prince Amukamara in the offseason could be a setback for them. Cephus should avoid Kyle Fuller’s coverage in this one which gives him a solid chance at 10+ PPR points if Amendola is out or limited.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. GB): I wasn’t high on Jefferson coming into camp, but he’s been impressive. He’s not an explosive athlete, but his football IQ and feel for the game are off the charts. He’s a route running technician who was a tough cover for Jalen Ramsey in camp. It remains to be seen if he’s fully overtaken Josh Reynolds for the WR3 role in the offense, but if he has he’ll be on the field a lot. The Rams like to line up with 3 wide receivers on the field as much as anyone. Dallas was stingy against wide receivers a year ago, but they said goodbye to their number one corner Byron Jones in the offseason. Jefferson is more of a stash right now, but if he’s on the field as the WR3 a 4-60 kind of game wouldn’t be that crazy for him this week.

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 1: @Was.): Hightower has a chance to benefit from a couple of injuries ahead of him this week, and also from the extra attention the Washington secondary will give to DeSean Jackson. D-Jax burned them in the opener last year with 2 TDs of 50+ yards. They’re going to do everything they can to make sure that doesn’t happen again. There was a surprising update late in the week that Jalen Reagor may be able to play in week 1, and that would render Hightower pretty much useless this week. If Reagor isn’t able to play, the defensive focus D-Jax will draw means less attention for JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Greg Ward, and Hightower. Of that trio, Hightower is the only one with the burner speed to hurt Washington deep. If Reagor doesn’t suit up, Hightower is a DFS tournament dart throw who will cost the minimum in DraftKings, and can have a nice NFL debut with just one or two deep balls

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you as you try to figure out what to do with the rookies on your team for week 1. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week to make sure you don’t end up playing anyone inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your fantasy team came out of week 2 without a bunch of red letters next to players’ names. Last weekend was a bloodbath across the NFL as 4 players who may have been 1^st round picks in your fantasy draft left the week with injuries (CMC, Saquon, Davante Adams & Julio Jones), along with a host of others. If your fantasy team didn’t suffer major injuries, you came out of the week in pretty good shape. Some of these injuries are going to open the door for rookies to step into bigger roles in the immediate future, and I’m here to help you sort through what to do with your rookies in week 3. Let’s dive in…

Rookies to Start:

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): This one is a no-brainer. Taylor put the Colts’ offense on his back last Sunday against Minnesota, and he’s likely to do the same this week with Indy favored by double-digits. The Jets are much tougher against the run than they are against the pass, but volume alone should get Taylor where he needs to be. The Jets have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game this season. He’s a locked in RB1 this week with top-5 potential. He’ll likely be a chalk play for DFS cash games even at his $7,000 DraftKings price tag.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 3: @Bal.): This is not an ideal matchup for CEH. I mention him as a guy to start because you know the volume will be there. You likely drafted him in the first round, and there really aren’t any weeks to sit your first-round pick if he’s healthy. The Ravens allowed the 6^th-fewest RB points per game a season ago, and have allowed THE fewest so far in 2020. They also ranked 4^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2019 (3^rd so far in 2020). Edwards-Helaire is more of a contrarian DFS play this week, but you have to run him out there in season-long leagues. Just know to temper your expectations a little bit.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Week 3 has a chance to be Kelley’s best week all year. There is no better matchup for a running back than the Carolina Panthers, and everything shapes up for Kelley to see at least 15 carries. The Panthers’ run defense is bad by any metric. They ranked dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2019 and rank 29^th so far in 2020. They also allowed the most RB fantasy points last year, and have allowed the most so far in 2020, and they’ve been surrendering rushing touchdowns at a ridiculous rate. Carolina has allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in their last 7 games dating back to last season, including 3 in each of the first two games this year. Kelley and Ekeler split the lead back role pretty evenly in week 2, and I didn’t see anything from Kelley that makes me think that will change this week. The rookie has a very solid floor in this one and has top-12 upside if he’s able to get in the end zone. He should probably be in your lineup if you have him.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): Everything is setting up for a breakout for Robinson on the national stage on Thursday night. The rookie has looked great through two weeks in average matchups. He’s the RB26 so far on the season in PPR scoring, and he’s looked even better than that ranking would suggest. He’ll face off with one of the worst run defenses in the league in week 3. The Dolphins have ranked in the bottom-4 in the league in run defense DVOA both last season and so far in 2020 and have given up 5.1 yards per carry on the ground so far this season. I expect Robinson to have a bit of a coming-out party on Thursday night and think a top-15 finish for the week is very possible.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Lamb has wasted no time showing why the Cowboys were thrilled when he fell to them in the first round of the NFL draft. He’s clearly an integral part of the offense with 15 targets in the first two weeks. The Seahawks are 2-0, but they have a burnable secondary and have given up an insane 831 passing yards through two weeks. This is a spot to get all of the Cowboys’ pass-catchers into your lineup, especially after head coach Mike McCarthy told the media he has no intention to try and milk the clock to keep the ball away from Russell Wilson. This should be the most entertaining game of the week, and CeeDee Lamb should be a solid WR2 in it.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): Along with James Robinson, Viska may also be in line for a big night. DJ Chark has been ruled out, leaving Shenault and Keelan Cole as the top 2 receivers. You may have 3 better options than Shenault on your team and not be able to find a place in your lineup for him, but he’s going to be a huge part of the game plan. The Jaguars will move him around enough to keep him away from Xavien Howard, and with Bryon Jones out that will put him in some mismatches in his favor. Shenault is an upside WR3 on Thursday night against a Miami secondary that let Josh Allen throw for 411 yards last week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Burrow had a very nice fantasy day last Thursday night against the Browns, but it could’ve been even better if he hadn’t been so hell-bent on forcing the ball to AJ Green all night. The Eagles’ secondary hasn’t been great so far this year ranking 27^th in pass defense DVOA, but the best member of that secondary, Darius Slay, should be shadowing Green. If Burrow can avoid tunnel vision with Green again, there is a chance at a respectable day. I wouldn’t be considering Burrow in 1-QB leagues and his outlook this week isn’t as rosy as his matchup with the Browns was, but he should be a low-end QB2 option with a very solid floor.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Gibson seems to have wrestled the starting job away from Peyton Barber in Washington, and with so many running backs injured right now you may be forced to play him. Just be aware this isn’t a great matchup and he’ll still cede some work to Barber and JD McKissic. The Washington offense as a whole isn’t a high-scoring unit and has an implied total of just 18.5 points this week. The Browns did give up two short yardage scores to JK Dobbins in week one, but have still allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4^th in run defense DVOA. Gibson’s volume makes him an enticing flex option, but he’s far from an automatic start and not someone I would be using in DFS lineups this week.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 3: @Ari.): What a difference a week makes for the Lions’ backfield usage. In week one with the Lions leading most of the day, Adrian Peterson touched the ball 17 times while Swift handled just 6 touches. In week 2 with the team trailing Green Bay for most of the game, Swift out-touched Peterson 10-to-7. The key for Swift is that he’s been heavily involved in the passing game with 8 receptions on 10 targets through 2 weeks. The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, so the usage should slant in Swift’s direction again, and Arizona has allowed scores each of the last two weeks to backs with similar skill-sets to Swift (Jerick McKinnon & Antonio Gibson). Swift is in play as a PPR flex option in a game where Detroit has an implied total of 24.5.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): The injury to Courtland Sutton moves Jeudy up to the top of the Broncos’ WR depth chart, and thanks to how much time he spends in the slot he’ll be able to avoid Tampa’s top CB Carlton Davis for most of this game. Jeudy lines up in the slot on about two-thirds of his snaps. No team allowed more points to opposing wide receivers than Tampa a year ago, and they allowed DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to each top 100 yards last week. Jeudy should be in line to see 7+ targets this week and is very much in the WR3 conversation in all formats.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Pittman stands to be the biggest beneficiary of Parris Campbell’s trip to the IR. His snap share rose from 53% in week 1 up to 92% in week 2 with Campbell going down on his first touch of the game. Pittman should continue to be a full-time player at least until Campbell returns. This game figures to be a blowout where Indy will lean on Jonathan Taylor and the run game, but Pittman was targeted 6 times in a game that went that way last week. The Colts have an implied total of 27 points, and dating back to the start of last season, 66% of the offensive TDs the Jets have allowed have been through the air. At 6’4”, Pittman figures to be a factor in the red zone. If he gets 6+ targets in this one, he’ll have a great chance at finishing among the top-40 WRs and should outproduce his $4,000 price tag in DraftKings.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): I think it’s very likely that Herbert has a better real game than fantasy game this week. As I laid out with Josh Kelley above, Carolina has been absolutely shredded on the ground since the start of last season, especially in the red zone. I’d expect a lot of Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley in this game. The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this one and Christian McCaffrey, the engine of the Panthers’ offense, is sidelined. It feels like the most likely outcome is that the Chargers get out in front and stay there. I’d probably view Herbert as no more than a low-end QB2 this week due to limited passing volume.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): In a typical week with so many top running backs out, I’d be telling you to consider a guy like Moss as a flex option. He’s seeing plenty of red zone usage on a surprisingly potent Bills offense that has an implied total of 25 points this week. Unfortunately, he’s also dealing with a toe injury that has him not practicing yet as of Thursday. I think even if Moss plays he’ll be less effective than usual. The Rams are not a run defense to be afraid of, but I’d lean against starting Moss this week even if he is able to suit up. He’ll probably need to find the end zone to return any value.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. KC): I fell for the trap on Dobbins a little bit after his week 1 breakout game. I already believed in his talent coming into the season, but week 1 made me believe he’ll get enough usage to be start-able in fantasy. Week 2 threw a bit of a wet blanket on that. The snap share wasn’t drastically different from week 1 to 2, but the touches were. Dobbins handled 7 carries in week 1 including 2 carries from the 2-yard line that he cashed in for scores, but in week 2 he touched the ball just 3 times. He managed to avoid a complete dud of a week by breaking off a 44-yard run to set up kneel downs at the end of the game. Mark Ingram & Gus Edwards combined for 4 red zone carries to Dobbins’ zero in week 2. The Ravens have one of the highest implied totals of the week at 28.5, but if you play Dobbins you’re counting on him getting in the end zone. I’d avoid starting him this week unless you’re in a tough spot due to injuries. He could be a reasonable fall-back flex option if you’re waiting on a player like Davante Adams for Sunday night or Sammy Watkins Monday, but Tre’Quan Smith and Mecole Hardman are guys that are probably available in your leagues that I would prefer in those situations.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Akers seems like to a long-shot to play this week, and I’d expect that if he does suit up he’ll be mainly there as insurance in case something happens to Darrell Henderson. I’d expect Henderson to handle the bulk of the work. The Bills aren’t an impenetrable run defense, but they aren’t one to target either, allowing the 12^th fewest RB points per game so far this year (14^th-fewest last year).

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 3: @NE): Ruggs and Edwards failed to do much last Monday in a game where the Raiders offense dominated possession, and this week they’ll face a Patriots’ secondary that is among the best in the league. Don’t be fooled by what the Seahawks did to them last week. Derek Carr continued to effectively lead his ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’ offense, dinking-and-dunking to Darren Waller and his running backs, and handing the ball to Josh Jacobs. The Patriots biggest personnel losses due to COVID opt-outs and players changing teams last offseason were in the defensive front 7. That’s the part of the defense that I’d expect the Raiders to attack. If Josh Jacobs sits, things get a little more interesting (he was held out of practice Thursday), but neither Ruggs nor Edwards would be more than a desperation flex play. I’d prefer Ruggs to Edwards this week if I had to choose one.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. Ten.): Jefferson has been on the field quite a bit in the first two weeks of the season, but the Vikings’ passing game has been a low-volume attack that runs through Adam Thielen. A third of all of Minnesota’s targets have gone to Thielen while Jefferson has been targeted just 6 times at an average depth of 8.8 yards downfield. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak talked about wanting to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands this week, but at that same presser said they need to run the football more. The Vikings already rank 31^st in the league in pass attempts DESPITE playing from behind on 79 of their 96 offensive snaps so far this year…and Kubiak wants to run more. The matchup isn’t terrible for Jefferson this week on paper. On any snaps in the slot  he should be lining up against 7^th-round rookie corner Chris Jackson (PFF grade of just 27.2 through two weeks), but the Minnesota passing game is fundamentally broken right now. I wouldn’t look at Jefferson as anything other than a low-priced DFS dart throw in a limited slate tournament.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Claypool’s final stat line in week 2 was impressive, finishing with 17.8 PPR points, but almost all of it came on one long TD catch. Outside of an 84-yard score, he had just 2 catches for 4 yards and played a total of just 24 snaps. It’s clear the Steelers are trying to get him involved and are drawing up a couple of shot plays for him each week, but his limited playing time makes him a risky weekly option. Houston has been a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of DVOA since the start of last season and gave up 12 pass plays of 40+ yards in 2019 (T-7^th most in the league) but they haven’t given one up yet in 2020. Claypool is best left to DFS tournaments this week. The weekly floor is going to be below 5 PPR points until he moves up in the depth chart.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Jefferson split the Rams’ WR3 snaps almost evenly with Josh Reynolds in week 1, but in week 2 he was out-snapped 42-to-26. That didn’t stop him from outproducing Reynolds with a 4-45 line on 5 targets (Reynolds went 2-33 on 2). Some of that target volume was undoubtedly the result of Robert Woods facing off with Darius Slay (Woods was targeted just 5 times), and although Woods gets another tough matchup this week in Tre’Davious White, it’ll be tough to rely on Jefferson unless he fully takes over the WR3 role. Jefferson doesn’t have a picnic of a matchup himself facing off with Levi Wallace, who was Pro Football Focus’s highest graded rookie cornerback a year ago. Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are the Rams’ pass-catchers to target this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 3: @NYG): Aiyuk’s debut was mostly inauspicious. He played 72% of the team’s snaps but was targeted just 3 times and finished with 2 catches for 21 yards. The offense will look a bit different this week with Nick Mullens under center and the combo of Jerick McKinnon and Jeffrey Wilson Jr. splitting the backfield duties. George Kittle could be out again as well. I’d look for the Niners to have a conservative game plan, but it’s hard to know exactly what that will look like. I’d probably avoid any 49ers for your lineups this week aside from Kittle (if he plays), Jordan Reed (if Kittle doesn’t play), and the two running backs I mentioned. You can’t trust Aiyuk to have a useful fantasy day based on what we saw last week.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): Davis is playing more snaps than you would expect for a number 4 wide receiver, but it isn’t translating to targets yet. Josh Allen has thrown the ball 81 times for 729 yards and 6 scores through two weeks, but Davis has seen just 3 of those targets and turned them into 3-22-1. The matchup this week should involve Jalen Ramsey following Stefon Diggs all over the field, so it could result in a little bit more volume for everyone else, but it would take a pretty sizable bump in volume to make Davis anything more than a TD dart throw. He remains a guy worth stashing in dynasty leagues though.

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): With the news that Jalen Reagor has a torn ligament in his thumb Wednesday, Hightower is once again worth mentioning this week. He played 40% of the snaps in week 1 with everyone healthy, but that was with both Reagor and DeSean Jackson being limited to little more than half of the offensive snaps each. Week 2 saw Jackson and Reagor both function as closer to full-time players and the rest of the receiver group fighting for scraps. With Reagor sidelined, I expect to still see a lot of Jackson, and aside from him a mix of JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Greg Ward & Hightower. With the Bengals likely to be without Geno Atkins & Mike Daniels at DT, look for Philly to play a lot of 2-TE sets and run the ball a ton. They’ll be eager to take a bit of the load off of Carson Wentz given how he’s played the first two weeks. For Hightower to return value this week, he’ll probably have to catch a deep ball or two, but his average target depth in week 1 was just 8 yards. I’d avoid him even as a bargain basement DFS play.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Kenny Golladay practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go for this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Cephus has been on the field more than 70% of the Lions’ snaps with Golladay out the first two weeks, but that number is going to drop drastically this week assuming Kenny G returns. Cephus has lined up in the slot on just 9 snaps. Danny Amendola will continue to serve as the team’s slot receiver with Golladay and Marvin Jones on the outside. Quintez will likely only see a handful of snaps and should be left out of any fantasy lineups this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): Bryant was on the field for more than 50% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week and gets to face a Washington team that has allowed the 8^th-most tight end points per game so far, but he just isn’t seeing the ball come his way enough to be useful. He’ll do just enough to be annoying to people starting Austin Hooper. The Browns’ offense is too run-heavy right now to be targeting either tight end for fantasy.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 3: @Atl.): I’m sure you already know better on this one, but I wanted to make sure you know to not get cute just because the Falcons couldn’t defend Dalton Schultz last Sunday. Kmet is still the Bears #3 tight end, and he should be nowhere near your fantasy lineups.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, & Cheap DFS Options:

RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 3: @NYG): Don’t throw Hasty into your lineups for week 3, but he’s an interesting guy to possibly scoop up in dynasty leagues with the injuries to Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman. Hasty is likely to be promoted from the practice squad for this game, and I’d expect him to see at least a few touches. If he manages to impress with those touches he could ascend the depth chart quickly and possibly have a useful week or two in this very running back-friendly offense. He’s a shifty back that can be more dynamic than Jeff Wilson. He’s a player to monitor in deep dynasty leagues if he gets the call-up.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Higgins saw a huge jump in playing time in week 2 with Auden Tate a surprising healthy scratch. I’d expect that to be the case again this week, and he’ll get the most favorable matchup of the receivers. Tyler Boyd will get Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot, and AJ Green is likely to face off with Darius Slay. Higgins meanwhile will tangle with Avante Maddox. Higgins posted 3-35 on 6 targets last week, and so long as Burrow doesn’t have tunnel vision for AJ Green again, I expect the rookie to exceed that easily. He costs just $3,900 on DraftKings.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): With the news that Courtland Sutton is out for the season, Hamler suddenly finds himself to be a much bigger part of Denver’s plans. He was an explosive playmaker in college, and new QB Jeff Driskel has shown flashes of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s YOLO style back when he was in Detroit. This week isn’t an ideal matchup for Hamler since he will likely see a lot of ascending star CB Carlton Davis (Jerry Jeudy has worked mostly from the slot and is likely to avoid Davis), but Driskel targeted Hamler 7 times last week after coming on in relief of Lock. Driskel averaged 8.2 intended yards per attempt last year, which would’ve put him in the top half of all QBs if he played enough to qualify, and he was at 12.4 intended yards per attempt on Sunday. Hamler is a bit of a shoot the moon option this week as a minimum-priced WR on DraftKings. He also shouldn’t be on your league’s waiver wire in 12-team leagues.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 3: @Atl.): Mooney’s impressive week 1 performance did in fact lead to more playing time in week 2. The Bears were comfortable enough with Mooney that they made Ted Ginn a healthy scratch for week 2 and let Mooney play 60% of the offensive snaps. Atlanta is an inviting matchup for receivers. Both Atlanta games this season have turned into shootouts with over 700 yards of combined passing offense in each. I don’t know that Chicago has the firepower to make that 3 in a row, but I like Mooney’s chances at a surprisingly solid week. I’d expect him to have a season-high in catches and yards, and he’s a sneaky flex option for deep leagues and costs the minimum in DraftKings. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. It’ll be especially important this week to keep an eye on the injury report. There are a lot of statuses still up in the air as of this writing. Make sure you’re vigilant enough that you don’t start any inactive players, and make sure that whoever you put in your flex spot is the player in your lineup who plays the latest game of the week at his position. You don’t want to stuck without a fallback if a player is a last minute scratch like Tyrod Tylor or James White (condolences to him and his family this week). Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.