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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

 

45.9 QB Rating

 

Tom Brady had an abysmal QB rating in Sunday’s game, his lowest rated game since 2006, although his Week 16 game last year against Buffalo when he put up a 48.3 rating is close. This is trying to develop into a division rivalry, though Brady’s pure dominance against Buffalo (31-3), suggests otherwise. It’s been hard to find a division rival for the Patriots in the last couple decades. Still, Brady put up a whopping 4.7 points as the QB26 so far this week, so at least we know he’s human. What may not be human is the Patriots defense and special teams this season. They scored another touchdown this week, which means that they have 3 TDs vs just 1 yielded on defense (and another on special teams). At 86 points on the season, they are the 6th highest scoring “player” across all positions. They have 60% more points than the next highest scoring D/ST, the Bears – who have looked incredibly dominant.

 

15,021 Rush Yards and 1,326 Receptions

 

Congrats are due to Frank Gore and Larry Fitzgerald, who both reached milestone career stats on Sunday. Gore became just the 4th player to rush for over 15,000 yards – just north of 8.5 miles gained from scrimmage. We’ve constantly been wrong when predicting the demise of Frank Gore, so I just want to say that you rock, Frank! Keep proving us wrong, because this must be his last season, right? I suppose being the RB20 and putting up double digits each of the last 3 weeks begs to differ. Meanwhile, down in the desert, Larry Fitzgerald is now second all time on the career receptions list, just behind Jerry Rice, whom is 226 receptions ahead, which is probably 3 seasons away if Larry wants to make a run at it. Fitzgerald is the WR20 so far this year and has put up 42 points, while Gore has 42.10 points. Aside from the position they play, they’re basically the same player.

 

81 Yard Rushing…. non-Touchdown

 

Leonard Fournette broke free on Sunday for an 81 yard rumble, the longest play in the NFL this season that did not result in a touchdown. Still, Fournette wound up as the RB3 on the week so far, with 225 rushing yards and another 20 receiving yards tacked on to that. The real story in Jacksonville is Gardner Minshew II, clearly a future hall of famer. Maybe that’s just what I want to happen, but I’ve been a fan since he got in the game Week 1 and completed 13 consecutive passes to start his career. Minshew is the QB16 on the season, ahead of guys like Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers. He’s only owned in 11% of Yahoo leagues and has a floor of 16 points on the season – pretty good for a rookie who wasn’t supposed to start.

 

36.30 Fantasy Points

 

Your clubhouse leader in points in Week 4 is Nick Chubb, who had a ridiculous 183 yards from scrimmage to go along with 3 TDs. The Browns offense finally exploded for the first real time this season, beating the first place Ravens. The Browns, 2-2, are now tied with those same Ravens for first place in the AFC North. Chubb was a one-man wrecking crew, far outpacing his fellow fantasy star teammates, Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr., who both had a higher QB rating than anyone for Washington. Mayfield had his best game of the season, 16.78 points, which is basically Gardner Minshew’s floor. Minshew Mania, baby!

 

5 of the Top 10 QBs in Week 4

 

So far this week, 5 of the top 10 QBs this week, by fantasy points, are owned in 68% of leagues or fewer. This stat can only get crazier tonight if either Andy Dalton (36% owned) or Mason Rudolph (10% owned) can put up a 20-point game. Jameis Winston leads the way in both points and ownership, throwing for 4 TDs in a high scoring upset of the LA Rams where his team put up a franchise record 55 points. Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota and Joe Flacco all found themselves in the top 10. Between the 4 of them, their ownership overs around 27%. The top 10 QBs combined for a 4-6 record, so maybe we need to start picking, or at least streaming, QBs from bad teams instead of the good ones. Nah. I’ll take my chances with a Patrick Mahomes, this week’s QB12, who is on pace for 6000 yards this season. He didn’t even throw a TD this week despite his team putting up 34 points.

 

Details

 

With the NFL season yet to see a significant upset, there still remains 1065 of the 1499 members surviving in the pool. Last week we just squeaked out a victory when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the Miami Dolphins 31-6.

 

I think I am seeing a trend developing here, and will be picking the San Diego Chargers of Los Angeles to defeat the woeful Dolphins this week. Hey, if it were not for teams playing divisional opponents twice a year, you could pick against Miami every week and you'd be right. This game checks off a couple boxes for me, resulting in the pick.

 

First, the Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week at -14.5, which they will cover. You also have a desperate Charger team that has let two games slip away that they should have won. Much like the Eagles last night, the Chargers will be heavily motivated for a good showing for fear of falling to 1-3 and getting left in the dust of the Chiefs who are looking to go 4-0.

 

Philip Rivers has too much pride to be part of the franchise that loses to two 1-15 teams in his career and will look to reignite the Charger Super Bowl hype. Lucky for me, this will be one of the local games for the San Diego market so I will get to witness first hand just how bad the Dolphins are.

 

Godspeed Mr. Rosen.

 

Details

Remember last week how I mentioned we are starting to get things figured out for this season? How it looks like we have an idea of what these teams will look like this year?

 

Yeah…just forget about all of that. This is the NFL – such realizations do not exist!

 

At least this week we have less opportunities to mess up as the bye weeks have begun. We will need to stay on top of our game now as there will be less points to grab!

 

Week 4 – HERE WE GO!!!!

 

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

 

15 – LOS ANGELES RAMSover Tamp Bay – The Bucs made Daniel Jones look like Joe Montana…have fun trying to stop the Rams!

 

14 – GREEN BAYover Philadelphia – If Aaron Rodgers realizes that a full football game consists of more than just 1 ½ quarters the Packers could be dangerous.

 

13 – Los Angeles Chargersover MIAMI – (Insert Team Here) is playing the Dolphins.

 

12 – BALTIMOREover Cleveland – It isn’t necessarily time for the Browns to smash the panic button on this season … but it’s close!

 

11 – HOUSTONover Carolina – All the love for Kyle Allen will probably come to a screeching halt this Sunday.

 

10 – CHICAGOover Minnesota – I think it is safe to say that the Bears learned a lesson from their week 1 home division loss.

 

9 – New Englandover BUFFALO – Surprising to see the Bills are undefeated…not as surprising that the Patriots are…and still will be. 

 

8 – ATLANTAover Tennessee – The Titans showed us last week that they aren’t ready to compete at a level needed to win in Atlanta yet.

 

7 – DENVERover Jacksonville – I can see this being the best game that Joe Flacco has had in years. My BOLD PREDICTIONis that JOE FLACCO WILL THROW FOR OVER 350 YARDS.

 

6 – PITTSBURGHover Cincinnati – Remember when this was a must-see matchup?

 

5 – Kansas Cityover Detroit – I had a harder time picking the Chiefs in this one than I would have in the beginning of the season.

 

4 – NEW ORLEANSover Dallas – Hey Dallas, meet real competition. 

 

3 – ARIZONAover Seattle – If a Kyle Allen-led offense can shred the Cardinals, Russell Wilson should fare pretty well.

 

2 – NEW YORK GIANTSover Washington – Between last week and a game against the Redskins, Giants fans are going to start thinking Daniel Jones will take them to the Super Bowl this year.

 

1 – Oaklandover INDIANAPOLIS – In the years that I have been writing this, I have never made a selfish “homer” pick. But, I mean, I’ll be at this game…I want to see my Raiders win! :)

Details

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re another week deeper into the NFL season and we’ve seen another week of rookies making a big impact, especially at the QB position. Daniel Jones dazzled in his NFL debut despite a shaky start and some turnovers, Gardner Minshew continued to impress and Kyler Murray finally broke out the rushing ability. All 3 of these QBs finished the week with more fantasy points than Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield. Marquise Brown saw his numbers come back to earth a bit, but Terry McLaurin kept chugging right along and Mecole Hardman made the most of limited targets. Tony Pollard and Alexander Mattison took advantage of garbage time to post big days, and Miles Sanders finally cracked double-digit PPR points. There’s plenty more to talk about for this week, so let’s dive in. One quick housekeeping note first - there are plenty of guys who will be listed under the same header this week, so I wanted to post a reminder that the players at the same position within each header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Here’s a look at what to expect from week 4…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

kyler murray2

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.):  Murray’s situation has proven to be a perfect recipe for early fantasy success for the reigning Heisman winner. The Cards’ defense has been awful, which keeps the offense pushing the tempo and airing it out. Murray leads the NFL in passing attempts through 3 weeks and offset an inefficient passing day Sunday by finally using his legs and scoring some rushing points. The Seahawks have held 2 straight opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards, but those opponents were the Saints without Drew Brees and the Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger for half of the game. Andy Dalton torched them for nearly 400 yards in week 1. I’d roll with Kyler this week unless you have a locked-in QB1 option ahead of him.

 

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 4: @NYG): In week 3 against the Bears McLaurin became the first receiver in league history to have at least 5 catches, 60 yards and a touchdown in each of his first 3 games, and now he draws a Giants’ defense that has been shredded by perimeter receivers. Through 3 games, they’ve given up huge games to Amari Cooper (6-106-1), Michael Gallup (7-158), John Brown (7-72), and Mike Evans (8-190-3). Although McLaurin will probably lay an egg this week just because fantasy football doesn’t like us to have nice things, on paper he looks like a high-end WR2 this week. He’ll be in my lineups where I have him, and at $4,500 on DraftKings he’s an absolute steal in DFS lineups.

 

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Brown had a lackluster output in week 3 (2-49-0), but it wasn’t for lack of trying. Brown was targeted 9 times on the day and had some missed connections on a few deep balls. He averaged an absurd 30(!) air yards per target. This week he gets to face a Cleveland defense that has both starting outside corners struggling with hamstring injuries. They’re going to have trouble keeping Brown in front of them if they’re able to play at all. Fire up Brown as a WR2 this week and enjoy the results.

 

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): Metcalf has proven to be a lot more consistent than expected given his reliance on the deep ball. He’s averaging just 3 catches per game but hasn’t come up short of 60 yards in a game yet. This week he matches up with a Cardinals’ defense that is still missing Patrick Peterson and is going to have a lot of trouble containing him. This may be his best matchup of the season so far. He should be plugged in as a WR3 this week, especially in leagues that aren’t full PPR.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): It feels rushed to list Jones as a borderline starting option in just his second NFL start, especially with Saquon Barkley out, but Daniel-san (this is what I’m going to call him - you know it’s better than Danny Dimes, and think of the Eli as Mr. Miyagi memes) gets a great matchup this week and has acquitted himself well every time he’s been on the field as a pro. Washington has given up 3 passing scores in each game this year, and Jones’ rushing ability gives him a nice cushion in case he isn’t quite as sharp as he was against Tampa. Washington ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Jones is a borderline top-12 option this week with the upside for another big day.

 

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 4: @GB): There are some warning signs we’re seeing with Sanders so far. His snap share has dropped each week of the season and was at just 34% last week, and he did lose a fumble on Sunday against the Lions. On the other hand, he also finally flashed his big play ability in the passing game posted his best game of the season. If he has his usual 10-12 carries and a few targets this week, the opportunity for another big game is there. The Packers have given up more than 350 rushing yards to opposing backs in the last 2 weeks. I’m willing to take a chance on that upside in a flex spot if you don’t have any locked in options or are scared to go back to Sony Michel or Peyton Barber again.

 

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Like Sanders, Jacobs has seen his snap share drop each week. In week 2, the issue seemed to be that he was fighting through an injury. Week 3 made it clear that the issue was game script. The Raiders have been playing from far behind in each of the last 2 weeks, and Jacobs has seen less than 50% of the offensive snaps in each game as a result. The Colts are a touchdown favorite this week, which puts a damper on Jacobs’ outlook again. There are reasons for optimism though. The Raiders coaches spoke this week about wanting to get Jacobs more targets going forward, and this week he faces a run defense that ranks 30th in run defense DVOA so far and allows 5.4 yards per carry. He’s in play as a reasonable flex option again this week.

 

david montgomery

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Min.): Montgomery put on a show in the 4th quarter on Monday night flashing his signature elusiveness as he helped the Bears put the game away, but his overall usage was alarming. Prior to the game’s final drive, Monty had seen just 6 carries for 19 yards. On a positive note he did play his highest snap % of the season and finished with a respectable line. He’s the clear lead back for the Bears now, but the play calling is going to make him a bit volatile from week to week. The Vikings have been solid against the run outside of week 2 when they were carved up by Aaron Jones, but they played with big leads in the other 2 games. Game script might not be as positive here with the Bears favored. Montgomery is worth considering as a flex option, but I’d prefer both rookie RBs listed above over him this week.

 

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 4: @Det.): Hardman has proven to be a reliable big play threat over the past couple weeks, but there is still a bit of boom-or-bust to his fantasy outlook, and that prevents me from making him a sure start this week. The Lions have good enough corners to not be completely helpless, but obviously any receiver in this offense is capable of having a monster game, especially on the fast track indoors. I’d feel comfortable with him as my WR3 but know that he does come with some baked-in risk if he doesn’t hit on a big play. The biggest difference between Hardman and DK Metcalf is that the there are a lot more passing targets to spread the ball to in Kansas City.

 

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 4: vs. KC): I’m sure if you have Hockenson on your fantasy team and are reading this you’re thinking there is no way you’d start Hock this week. I understand that sentiment. After setting the NFL record for tight end receiving yards in a rookie debut week 1, TJ has totaled just 2 catches for 8 yards on 7 targets since. There is a chance for him to get back on track this week. The Lions haven’t trailed by more than 4 points all year. That’s likely to change this week. I’d expect Stafford to be north of 40 pass attempts for the first time since week 1, and that means at least a few more balls head TJ’s way. He was targeted in the red zone twice last Sunday and narrowly missed his 2nd TD of the season. We’ve seen the floor is low here, but I think Hockenson gets back on track a bit this week with 50+ yards and a shot at a TD.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 4: @Den.): I told you to bench Minshew last week and it came back to bite me. The usually run-heavy Jaguars have shown a willingness to let the kid throw the ball, even in neutral and positive game scripts. The Jaguars threw on 60% of their offensive plays on Thursday despite never trailing and have the 10th-highest % of pass plays in the league so far. Minshew finished week 3 with just 204 yards but found the end zone twice and should have found it a 3rd time if not for a Dede Westbrook drop. Week 4 brings his toughest challenge yet. Denver has allowed about 205 passing yards per game and just 2 TDs total in 3 games. I think Minshew will be hard-pressed to match what he did last week when he finished as the QB16. I’d keep him sidelined this week. If he comes up with another solid day it may be time to start viewing him as an every-week QB2 option.

 

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 4: vs. NE): It seems as though Singletary will be a long shot to play this week, but if he is able to get back out there he gets to face a defense that has allowed just 100 TOTAL rushing yards to opposing running backs through 3 weeks and hasn’t allowed an offensive TD all year. If you want to roll the dice that Singletary is the guy to break through against them be my guest, but I’d wait a week to get him back in any lineups even if he does play in this one.

 

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Mattison’s fantasy production has been entirely game script dependent through 3 weeks. In the Vikings’ 2 blowout wins he’s posted 21 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown. In their one loss he saw just 4 carries for 25 yards. This week the Bears are 2-point home favorites against the Vikings, rank 3rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4th-fewest RB fantasy points. Mattison seems unlikely to get extended opportunity in this game and unlikely to cash in on it even if he does.

 

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 4: @Det.): Thompson has seen a total of just 11 snaps in the first 3 weeks. With Damien Williams out last Sunday, it was Darrel Williams who stepped in and made an impact, not Darwin. Williams didn’t play at all in the first 2 weeks but was on the field for 37 snaps against the Ravens. LeSean McCoy did re-aggravate his injury in the game, so there is an outside chance that Thompson sees some additional work this week if both Damien and Shady are out, but I’m not confident enough in that to put him in lineups or pay up the $4,300 he costs on DraftKings to take a flyer in DFS tournaments and find out.

 

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 4: @NO): Pollard finally got the chance this week to show people why he was a coveted player when it looked like Zeke may hold out back in the preseason. The Dolphins are of course a punchline this season, but Pollard’s 21.8 PPR points and RB7 finish for the week count just the same. He even outscored Zeke. He’s unlikely for a repeat performance with an actual competitive team on the schedule this week. The Cowboys are road favorites, but by just 2.5 points in The Big Easy. Pollard played just 17 snaps in week 2 against Washington, a contest that should look more like what we’ll see for the RB split in most weeks. He’s still a priority handcuff for Zeke, but he won’t have much standalone value outside of blowouts.

 

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Hill has seen his playing time decrease each week. He was on the field for just 11 snaps in week 3, and although he saw a season-high 3 passing targets he didn’t turn any of them into catches. It looks like this backfield is going to be mostly Mark Ingram in competitive games with some Gus Edwards mixed in. Until Hill starts getting more work in the rotation, he’s best left on the waiver wire in most redraft leagues.

 

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Darrell hasn’t played an offensive snap in the last 2 weeks. The time has probably come (and passed) to drop him in redraft leagues. I do think the Rams will eventually get him more involved, but at this point there is no reason to waste a roster spot waiting around for it outside of deep leagues.

 

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Diontae did find the end zone last week, but the Steelers have the look of a much lower volume passing attack this year with Mason Rudolph under center. Rudolph has thrown the ball just 46 times for 286 yards in a game and a half at the helm. Johnson was the target of 9 of those passes, so he’s likely to be involved but Cincinnati is much easier to attack on the ground than through the air. I’d look for the Steelers to lean on James Conner on Monday. The Bengals have allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game and 5.24 yards per carry. There just won’t be enough passing volume to rely on Diontae this week.

 

WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Johnson should see his snap share go back up a bit this week after the Cardinals cut Michael Crabtree, but he hasn’t been doing enough with the targets he’s been getting to be relied on for fantasy as the Cards’ WR4. He’s turned 16 targets into just 8 catches for 90 yards on the year. The offense continues to run through Kirk and Fitzgerald, and Johnson and Byrd will fight for the scraps.

 

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 4: @Atl.): Given the limited opportunity that the Titans’ passing attack gives its receivers on a weekly basis (they rank 29th in the league in pass attempts and just 55% of the targets have gone to WRs), Brown will need a couple splash plays like he had in week 1 to return value. Only the New England Patriots have allowed fewer 20+ yard passing completions than the Falcons have this year. The Falcons are content to let teams throw underneath and dink & dunk their way down the field. That doesn’t bode well for Brown’s outlook this week.

 

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Renfrow should find his way to a bit more playing time going forward with Ryan Grant cut this week, but Renfrow has yet to top 30 yards in a game this season and gets to face off with a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 7th-fewest WR points thus far. With Darren Waller hogging 30% of the targets and the team talking about Josh Jacobs getting more as well, it’s hard to see Hunter getting a big share this week.

 

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 4: @GB): Alshon Jeffery is off the injury report this week and is going to play on Thursday night. After Mack Hollins and Nelson Agholor each played 99% of the offensive snaps in week 3, JJ appears to be the odd man out. At best he would likely be splitting snaps as the team WR3 with Mack Hollins, and the Packers have allowed the 3rd-fewest WR points in the league so far. Keep Arcega-Whiteside sidelined this week.

 

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): The Jaguars have struggled to contain heavily targeted TE1 types so far this year, but they’ve made them work for their production. They allowed lines of 3-88 on 8 targets to Travis Kelce and 7-64 on 9 targets to Delanie Walker, but Noah Fant isn’t that type of tight end (at least not yet) and the Jags haven’t allowed a TD to the position yet. Fant has played less than 70% of the offensive snaps each of the past 2 weeks and has averaged 4 targets per game for the year. He’ll need a lot more work than that to have productive day against the Jaguars.

 

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 4: vs. NE): Knox seems to have emerged as the Bills de facto starting tight end for as long as Tyler Kroft is out. He’s led the unit in snaps each week and tallied 4 targets in each of the last 2. He posted his best game of the season last weekend with a 3-67-1 line. Unfortunately, he faces the Patriots this week. New England has allowed just 6 catches to opposing tight ends all year and zero total offensive touchdowns. Knox would be a desperation dart throw this week.

 

Rookie on a bye this week: WR Deebo Samuel, SF

 

Deep-League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 4: @NYG): As of Wednesday, Case Keenum isn’t practicing and is in a walking boot. The expectation is that Keenum will play this week, but if that changes between now and kickoff Sunday Haskins would be an interesting play in a GPP DFS tournament or as a sneaky QB2. The Giants have been demolished through the air. They’ve allowed the most passing yards in the league (332 yards/game), rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, and have coughed up an 8:1 TD:INT ratio. Haskins may be risky since we haven’t seen him in a game yet, but he should have an immediate comfort level with college teammate Terry McLaurin as his WR1. This would be the softest landing possible for Haskins’ NFL debut if he gets the chance to make it this week.

 

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 4: vs. KC):  Ty Johnson didn’t see an uptick in usage in week 3 despite CJ Anderson being cut during the week, but the Lions only trailed for a few minutes in that game. This week will almost certainly be different. They get to face Patrick Mahomes playing what is somehow his first game indoors as a college or pro QB. The Lions will need to score to keep pace, and I expect Ty to be at least a little more involved than he was a week ago. The Chiefs have allowed the 10th-most RB points per game so far, which is a far cry from last week’s opponent, the Eagles, who have allowed the 5th-fewest. I’m not advocating Johnson as anything more than a dart throw in DFS tournaments. This is still Kerryon’s backfield, but Ty costs the minimum in DraftKings. He may get enough opportunity to post a surprising day.

 

WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. LAC): The Dolphins are a massive underdog yet again this week which will undoubtedly keep them throwing, and Josh Rosen has actually been better than the numbers would indicate. Williams leads the team in targets, catches and receiving yards through 3 games and the Chargers’ secondary hasn’t been a shut down unit thus far. They’ve allowed the 14th-most WR points per game and rank 28th in pass defense DVOA. Look for Williams to be peppered with targets. He’ll likely be a bargain in all DFS formats and a decent deep league WR3 option.

 

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Oak.): TY Hilton re-aggravated a quad injury in the first half last week and sat out the remainder of the game. He looks questionable to play this week at best. If he were to miss this game, Campbell will be the biggest beneficiary. He played a season-high 46% of the offensive snaps last week and was the only WR who saw a significant increase due to the injury. With a full week of practice as the starting slot WR, he’ll have a great chance to make an impact against a defense that has allowed the 5th-most WR fantasy points. Brissett’s conservative passing game should be a great match with Campbell. The Colts’ QB averages just 5.6 air yards per attempt, and Campbell thrives on turning short catches into bigger gains. Campbell’s average target depth at OSU was just 6.58 yards, but he averaged 12.4 yards per catch. He could end the week as a WR4 and is an interesting option in deeper PPR leagues.

 

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): With Golden Tate due to return for game 5, this could be Slayton’s last chance to shine for a while. He saw his first snaps of the year in week 3 and made the 2nd-string QB-to-WR narrative look accurate for at least one night, as he hauled in 3 catches for 82 yards on 5 targets from Daniel Jones. I’d expect that performance has earned him some extra opportunity this week, and he’ll face off with a defense that has coughed up 588 yards and 8 scores to opposing WRs through 3 games. He’s a cheap flyer for DFS tournaments this week at just $3,200 on DraftKings.

 

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 4: @Buf.): Meyers gets mentioned this week due to the injury to Julian Edelman. It doesn’t sound like New England is too worried about it, but if Edelman isn’t able to play it should make Meyers a near full-time player Sunday. He played mostly in the slot in college so it would be a natural fit for him. The Bills boast a fearsome secondary, but their best corner, Tre’Davious White, will mostly be tangling with Josh Gordon. I’d look at Meyers as a dart throw in DFS tournaments if Edelman is out.

 

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Smith is mostly listed here as a guy to stash in deep leagues where you may have to start 2 TEs or have a bunch of flex spots and TE-premium scoring. Kyle Rudolph is still a full-time player, but Smith has been on the field for just under 50% of the offensive snaps and has been targeted almost as often as Rudolph. There isn’t a ton of volume in this passing attack, but there will be weeks where they’ll have to throw more. It’s not out of the question that Smith becomes more of a receiving TE while Rudolph is used primarily as a blocker. At the very least it’s a situation to monitor.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury updates throughout the week. There are plenty of questionable players to monitor and make sure you aren’t playing an inactive player or a backup where the starter ends up active. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Details

After this weekend's group of games, we will already be a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season. It's definitely the fastest and most exciting four months of the year, so make sure you're ready every week to play your winning picks. And remember, if you wait until the end of the week to make your picks(as I do), the lines may change out of your favor in a certain game(s). If that happens, feel free to move those lines up to a point and a half in either direction depending on your battle plans. I wouldn't wager anywhere that wouldn't let me adjust the numbers to at least a minimal degree. Most places taking action would rather not have you move the lines and risk taking what is offered. You'd be surprised at how little, shaving or adding a point and a half reduces your potential earnings. Definitely an option to think about when it comes to winning those parlays.

 

 

NICK'S PICKS:

 

NEP -7.5  The Pats will be taking on the Bills in this intriguing AFC East matchup. And even though I thought Buffalo had somewhat of a shot at the division title before the regular season started, New England's defense has been telling me otherwise. I don't think this spread is too high, even with this being a division rivalry with the Patriots playing on the road. Once they do lose, and/ or come back down to Earth, is when I'll scrutinize the data a little bit closer on future lines, and start hating Tom Brady again at my high level.

 

KC -6.5  Detroit's defense may be better than KC's, but we know this game is coming down to the offense and how many TDs Patrick Mahomes will throw. I mean, at the way the Chiefs score, they just have to pull off a ten point victory you would think. And I would think that's at the bottom of the spectrum. KC has the hottest offense, so go ahead... play with fire.

 

BAL -7  Okay, this is a game that I'm taking down half a point to -6.5. The only thing I'm really liking about the Brown's offense is Nick Chubb. They are on the road against a Raven's team that has one of the strongest running games in the league, as well as an emerging star in Lamar Jackson, a known 'run first' QB who is starting to develop quite an arm in his second year in the league. Baltimore's defense is pretty solid and the only tangible I can see making this one close, is because it's a division game.

 

 

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your $$$):

 

(PHI +4 / GB -4)  Aaron Rodgers needs to live up to the hype of his mustache.

 

(WAS +2.5 / NYG -2.5)  Daniel Jones will need to live up to the rookie hype for the second straight week.

 

(MIN +2.5 / CHI -2.5)  A battle between good defenses and below average QBs.

 

(DAL -2.5 / NOS +2.5)  Another great defensive battle. Who is the game's leading rusher... Alvin Kamara or Ezekiel Elliot?

 

 

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

 

(LAC -990 / NEP -327 / KC -293)

 

(BAL -300 / LAR -431 / SEA -239)

 

 

CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):

 

* = Winner

 

LAC* - 16 - MIA

KCC* - 15 - DET

CLE - 14 - BAL*

SEA* - 13 - ARI

TBB - 12 - LAR*

OAK -11 - IND*

NEP* - 10 - BUF

CAR - 09 - HOU*

WAS - 08 - NYG*

CIN - 07 - PIT*

TEN - 06 - ATL*

PHI - 05 - GBP*

DAL* - 04 - NOS

JAX - 03 - DEN*

MIN* - 02 - CHI

 

 

 

 

Details

 

For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 4 Preview: Say-Say, What?

 

QUARTERBACKS

Case Keenum (foot) – Keenum did not practice today, and according to ESPN beat reporter John Keim, he is in a walking boot for precautionary measures. The expectation ‘as of now’ is that he will play but that is clearly questionable. Whether or not Dwayne Haskins (2% owned) ends up making his first NFL start this week, Keenum is banged up and coming off of his worst game of the season against the Bears, who managed 5 forced turnovers including 2 fumbles from Keenum. It’s looking rough in Washington.

 

RUNNING BACKS

LeSean McCoy (ankle) & Damien Williams (knee) – Darrel Williams (109-total-yards) led the Chiefs’ backfield in touches Week 3 against the Ravens, but McCoy was still out there and productive (80-total-yards, 38% of the snaps, 2 TDs). The info to know for now is that Darrel Williams (40% owned) is definitely in front of Darwin Thompson (19% owned) on the depth chart, which is why he was a big waiver pickup this week with all of the prolonged injury concerns with Damien Williams (who is still not practicing and doesn’t figure to suit up in Week 4), and that LeSean McCoy tweaked his injured ankle in that game, and didn’t touch the ball in the 4th quarter – he is currently limited in practice. Williams will continue to have an impact.

Devin Singletary (hamstring) – According to the humorously named website ‘Buffalo Rumblings’, Singletary (78% owned) is still not practicing after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 2. There is not much indicating that things will change for the Bills’ backfield – leaving Frank Gore (57% owned) to continue as the unchallenged starter. In Week 3, Gore put up 76 yards on 14 rushes and 1 TD.

Ito Smith (concussion) – Smith’s (15% owned) absence after leaving in Week 3 because of a concussion only helps the underperforming Devonta Freeman. We’re finally able to look at trends, and here we see Freeman’s carries going up from 8 to 11 to 16 from Weeks 1 to 3 and putting up 88-yards on 16 rushes and 7 yards on 3 receptions in the game last week was a good sign. Not explosive, but enough work to be an every-week starter if this pattern continues. This guy needs a TD!

Rashaad Penny (hamstring) – Penny (60% owned) injured his hamstring during the walkthrough before the game last week, but the word from Pete Carroll is that he should be ok to practice on Thursday. With Chris Carson having already lost 3 fumbles this year, it’s possible that Seattle could start to give Penny the majority of the carries but all of the talk from Carroll has continued to back up Carson as the starter so I wouldn’t count on anything changing just yet in that backfield. C. J. Prosise (1% owned) is also a RB on the Seattle Seahawks.

Saquon Barkley (high-ankle sprain) – Oh gosh. Big news for fantasy football team managers, and every year you have one of the top guys go down – this year it’s Saquon. Although he’s getting a second opinion on the ankle, these kinds of sprains don’t fully heal for months. It’s my opinion that we don’t get Barkley back as himself for the remainder of the fantasy season. The interesting thing here is that some other opportunities may arise for fantasy points in New York, either from backup Wayne Gallman (71% owned), or from elsewhere (Kenyan Drake (58% owned), or free agents like Jay Ajayi (2% owned), CJ Anderson (5% owned), and Spencer Ware (0% owned)). Although Gallman was arguably at the top of waiver wire adds this week, I just don’t see the upside. He’s never averaged more than 4.3-yards per rush, and never scored more than 1 TD in a season. I think the Giants must obtain someone else, at least for short yardage.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

T.Y Hilton (quad) – Hilton was already nursing a quad injury when he suited up and played in Week 3 (8 receptions for 65 yards and 1 TD), and he had to leave the game after aggravating the same injury before halftime. He’s not practicing this week and looks to be a game-time decision against the Raiders in Week 4. Not good for the Colts but look at Deon Cain (0% owned) and Parris Campbell (4% owned) to start getting a little more spotlight if Hilton has an extended absence.

Desean Jackson (abdomen) – Already ruled out as of today, Jackson is not ready to get back into the game just yet on this short week (Thursday night game against the Packers). Although most of the experts thought that J.J. Arcega Whiteside (4% owned, 1 catch for 10 yards) would benefit from Jackson being off the field, it turns out that Mack Hollins (1% owned, 3rd year receiver, 4 catches for 62-yards) ended up being the guy in the stat book last weekend.

Julian Edelman (ribs) – After coming off the field in week 3, Edelman was taken for chest X-rays in the locker room, but everything came back negative. Both Edelman and Josh Gordon (hip/finger) should be good to go in a match-up against the Bills this week, but it’s a situation to monitor. In the meantime, Phillip Dorsett (50% owned) is again on the radar with Antonio Brown outta town, and he made the most of his playing time last week with 6 catches for 53 yards and 1 TD. He also rushed twice for 12 yards.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Vance McDonald (shoulder) – Earlier in the week it looked like McDonald (84% owned) may have suffered a major injury and some were reporting that Nick Vannett was traded to the Steelers from the Seahawks because of those injury concerns. Turns out, though, that it’s Xavier Grimble (calf) that has been put on injured reserve – the Steelers were just looking for another big-bodied blocking tight end to replace Grimble’s production. It’s not 100%, but there’s a good chance that McDonald ends up playing against the Bengals for Monday Night Football.

 

Details

 

With the current Tight End landscape out there in fantasy football, I will be covering a few TEs that are likely un-owned in your league. To start this rabbit chase, I am going to attempt to sell you on Dawson Knox. Dawson was never on my radar until he caught his first TD of the season in week 3 for the Bills. He also had a long catch-and-run prior to that TD, which also caught my eye.


Just look at this monster of a man:

 

 

What we know:

 

  • 6’ 4” 254lbs
  • Former High School Quarterback turned Tight End.
  • Walked on at Ole Miss and never caught a TD, yet had 18.9 yards per catch in his 2018 season with lots of mouths to feed in a potent offense. Looking at you AJ Brown and DK Metcalf
  • Buffalo likes what they saw and traded up to grab him in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft 
  • 40 time – 4.64
  • Still learning and is only 22 years old 
  • Saw 63% snap share in week 3

 

What I think:


Looking at the 3-0 Bills I am intrigued. Mind you, they started with a Patriots like schedule. Jets, Giants and Bengals. Looking at their roster they have a small group of WRs that are not ideal redzone targets. John Brown has looked good, but is 5’ 11” and is more of a deep threat. Cole Beasley is 5’ 8” and your typical slot receiver. Zay Jones is 6’ 2” and has had his time to show he is a capable receiver... spoiler, he is not.


The Bills have been in favorable game plans to focus on their rushing game with Singletary/Gore/Allen leading the charge. The match-up this week against the Patriots will be the first time the Bills will need to put up points in droves to stay alive. Knox should see a few opportunities to stretch the field and potentially get into the end-zone. He’s an agile TE with great hands. He can line up inline or flexed out and should be getting more snaps as his coaches have been praising him for his blocking skills as well.


Happy hunting and good luck this weekend!

 

Details

A few more injuries (Saquon Barkley, T.Y. Hilton, Vance McDonald) and upsets (Falcons, Eagles, Seahawks, Bucs) later, and we're on to Week 4. After some tweaks to the rankings this week, a few players stand out for me among the rest as guys that are currently a little underrated: Daniel Jones, Joe Mixon, Darrel Williams, and Kenny Stills, to name a few. 

 

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

 

 

 

Details

 

statistically insignificant header image

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

 

5 Players over 30 Fantasy Points

 

Week 3 saw the return of big fantasy totals, with Russell Wilson leading the way at over 41 points. Unfortunately for Wilson, it was in a losing effort as most of the 4th quarter was basically garbage time for the Seahawks, who were trounced by the Brees-less Saints. We also saw newcomer Daniel Jones put up numbers we’ve never seen from a rookie before, throwing for over 300 yards and scoring 2 TDs through the air and another 2 on the ground. The big scoring numbers went deep, with the top 10 players all scoring at least 25 points, and the top 24 players all hitting at least the 20-point mark. This likely translated into fantasy success for lots of people, as the position players in the top 24 were all owned in at least 75% of Yahoo leagues.

 

4-4 Record

 

Rookie and Backup QBs were the big story this week, with 25% of NFL teams now having turned to either a rookie or a backup this season. Six of these guys were starting for the first time this week, and we saw Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen lead their teams to victories in games where they were not expected to do much of the heavy lifting. Jones and Allen were responsible for 4 TDs each, while Bridgewater played an admirable game manager. Elsewhere in the rookie watch this week, Kyler Murray did what he could, but was sacked 8 times and his first victory still eludes him. Next up is a home game against division rival Seattle – a softer target that you might have thought in the preseason. Finally, we’ve got our number 1 boy, Gardner Minshew II. Minshew led the Jaguars to victory in the annual Thursday night Crap Bowl sponsored by NFL network versus the Tennessee Titans. Minshew is playing so well that whispers of what to do with Nick Foles when he comes back have turned into full on serious conversations.

 

0.79 Points Per Target

 

49ers tight end George Kittle was part of the preseason “big 3” at his position, but he’s fallen quite short of that mark so far. In 3 games, he hasn’t topped more than 5.7 points, but is remarkably consistent, with 5.4 points in the other 2 games. His targets are there, he has 21 on the season, but he’s just not doing anything with them. This is very disappointing when you consider that only Travis Kelce (1.38 PPT) has made it into the top 10 from the preseason top 3. This means that lots of guys who you could have taken very late are doing quite well at the position. Leading the way at TE is Evan Engram, a high-volume guy who will probably maintain that role with his shiny new QB, leads all TEs in scoring with 39.70 points. The most efficient so far? That’d be Mark Andrews, who has a very nice 1.48 points per target, despite his very disappointing week 3 performance.

 

0.20 Fantasy Points

 

The once great John Ross has returned back to irrelevance, at least for one week. Going in to week 2, Ross led all WRs in fantasy points, but his 2 catches for 22 yards and a fumble have dropped him down to 7th overall at the position. He’s just behind DJ Chark, who is only owned in 41% of Yahoo leagues and will likely be this week’s hot WR pickup on the waiver wire. Chark has scored a TD in each of his first 3 games and is a clear favorite target of Gardner Minshew II. Elsewhere at WR, Davante Adams is having a very slow start to a season, which is surprising since the Packers are 3-0. Adams is averaging just 6.6 points per game and hasn’t found the end zone yet. Adams is lagging behind his usual pace of receptions and touchdowns since his 2016 breakout season, but his yards per game isn’t that terrible and his catch rate is as high as it’s ever been. Perhaps it’s just positive game script that’s keeping Adams from putting up big numbers. The Packers haven’t been challenged too much by their opponent’s offenses so far, so that’s translated into a quiet air attack so far this season. The Packers are 27th in pass attempts and passing yardage, which is bound to improve as the season goes on, so don’t fret, Rodgers and Adams owners.

 

0 Offensive TDs Allowed

 

The Patriots D/ST keeps putting up great performances, and it’s because their real-life defense has been stellar. Through 3 games, they have only allowed 3 points to opposing offenses, a field goal early in week 1. The D/ST has double digit points in each game so far this season, and a schedule with the Redskins, Giants, Jets and Browns coming up after this week’s meeting in Buffalo show that they have a decent shot at keeping this streak alive. In Week 3, the team did give up a pick-six and fumbled a punt in the end zone, both resulting in TDs for the Jets D/ST, who led the way with 16 points this week. The Jets have a bye coming up, so they are not useful just yet, but they have 3 TDs on the season and are tied for third in total points among all D/STs.

 

Details

This weeks pick is the Dallas Cowboys over the Miami Dolphins. This Dolphins team is historically bad and the boys are a trendy super bowl pick from the NFC. The Cowboys are a team I don't always trust to beat the better teams so i'm using them early here against a very bad team.


As far as last week I led you astray a bit with the Panthers. It came down to the final drive, but unfortunately I wasn't calling the plays and Cam Newton did not dive over the center for the TD. Instead the bucs perimeter defensed held. After watching that game it was clear Cam couldn't throw, so it was infuriating to see him in the game if he wasn't also going to do what he's best at, lowering his shoulder and picking up yards with his legs.

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