Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by David Biggs
Take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Currently, my rankings are sitting at #8 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com.
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 12 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
10 for 10 on Field Goals
Also, 5 for 5 on extra points. This week saw the two kickers top the season-long scoring charts, and go perfect along the way. Brett Maher kicked 4 field goals and 4 extra points as the Cowboys destroyed the Vikings. His 23 fantasy points are better than anyone in the first 10 weeks of the season. Tyler Bass, meanwhile, made the most out of not having to kick outdoors in 6’ of snow. He went 6 for 6 on field goal attempts and, appropriately, added an extra point. Bass’s 26-point performance is the best of any kicker this season, with Maher’s week 11 the second best. Bass was the 10th highest-scoring player in all of fantasy football this week. He scored the most fantasy points in his game and Jacoby Brissett was right behind him at 25.86 points. If you had Bass and Brissett as the two highest scorers in a game that included Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Nick Chubb, then I’m calling you a liar.
10’s Wild
Derrick Henry has 10 rushing touchdowns on the season and 1,010 rushing yards so far. A very nice total after 10 games in the season. Henry has 7 games over 15 fantasy points, after starting the season with 2 games under 9 points. Six of those games are over 22 points. Three of his last four games have two touchdowns each (one of those a passing score this week). Henry is now the fifth player in history to rush for at least 10 touchdowns in five straight seasons. He’s the RB2 on the season, just 1.54 points behind Austin Ekeler, without ever leading the league in scoring in a given week.
11 Receiving Touchdowns
Travis Kelce leads the league in receiving touchdowns. His 3 on Sunday night, including the seemingly inevitable game-winner late in the 4th quarter. He’s now at 11 receiving scores on the season and just utterly dominating at his position. He’s the 4th highest-scoring non-QB fantasy player, but what’s perhaps more amazing is that he’s ahead of the TE2 by an astonishing 78.7 points. Mark Andrews, the TE2, has only 58% of Travis Kelce’s season-long point total. Kelce is officially an all-time great, as if there was any doubt, when he passed the one and only Gronk for most 100-yard receiving games by a TE in league history.
11 QBs with 20+ Points
For the second time this season, 11 QBs scored at least 20 fantasy points in one week. As of halftime on Monday night, Jimmy Garoppolo has a shot at being the 12th, which would be the high-water mark of this season. Included in these 11 QBs is Joe Burrow, topping the weekly list for the third time this year. Jacoby Brissett and Andy Dalton, are on an average of just 34% of rosters. Justin Fields for his 6th straight top-10 finish. And, though he’s pushed it the last two games, did not include Aaron Rodgers in the realm of 20-point scorers, yet again, like he has…all season long.
$20 Million in Salary Cap
If you told Jerry Jones that the $20 million in cap space that he’s devoting to the running back position produced 6 touchdowns and 573 yards from scrimmage from just one of the players, he might be pretty happy. If you told him that all that production comes from the guy who is using up less than 6% of that cap space, well, maybe his eyes might finally pop out of his head. Tony Pollard has been outstanding in his contract year with the Cowboys. While Ezekiel Elliott is looking at getting his contract picked up or not, Pollard is looking at dollar signs coming up in 2023. Pollard put up his second 33-point fantasy performance this season and is now the RB8 on the season – a far cry from his ADP of RB35. This guy is someone who is propelling your team to the playoffs if you landed him in the second half of your draft.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
OK, last week wasn’t all that great – only 62 out of a possible 105 points.
That’s OK though, there are going to be weeks where undefeated teams lose at home, Super Bowl champs are still given false hope and Good Morning Football hosts win a game – any given Sunday, right?
The key is to not let scores like that become a habit, which we haven’t yet this season…
…so let’s keep it rolling!
Week 11 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
14 – BALTIMORE over Carolina – The old saying is that if you have two QBs then you don’t have a QB…the Panthers are overachievers with having three QBs that make it seem like they don’t have a QB.
13 – BUFFALO over Cleveland – I’m just going to use this space as an appreciation for the workers who will be clearing, from what I’ve hear, roughly 24 feet of snow (give or take) from the field and the stands in Buffalo this weekend.
12 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Detroit – The Giants just seem to be getting winnable games on their schedule
11 – San Francisco over ARIZONA – Monday Night Football heads south of the border…seems like Mexico City will be getting a team in the near future – just my opinion, and Cardinals fans might be willing to offer their franchise at this point
10 – Philadelphia over INDIANAPOLIS – Sorry Jeff Saturday, can’t play the Raiders every Sunday
9 – DENVER over Las Vegas – Oh speaking of! I feel like the loser of this game should have to take the contracts of both head coaches
8 – Kansas City over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Patrick Mahomes lost another receiver … … … yeah I don’t think it will matter either. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that even with the WR injuries, MAHOMES WILL STILL THROW FOR OVER 350 YARDS
7 – Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH – The Steelers stole an OT win in Cincy in week 1 – look for the Bengals to even up the road wins
6 – MINNESOTA over Dallas – I’m still trying to figure out how the Vikings won in Buffalo last week
5 – GREEN BAY over Tennessee – OK, I’ll give the Packers the benefit of the doubt this week
4 – NEW ORLEANS over Los Angeles Rams – No Kupp…no win – Rams fans should probably get used to this
3 – New York Jets over NEW ENGLAND – How much fun with the AFC East this year?
2 – ATLANTA over Chicago – Would really like to this this as a Fields vs Ridder matchup
1 – HOUSTON over Washington – If you think the Texans will win, keep them on the one-point line
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- Written by David Biggs
We're in week 11 now - and whether you got there running, walking, or crawling, you're still setting lineups and making moves to better your current roster. Kudos to you! Lots of injuries last week (like Cooper Kupp, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goeddert, Jerry Jeudy, etc) have affected NFL depth charts so take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Currently, my rankings are sitting at #8 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com.
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 11 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now officially hit the halfway point of the NFL season, but we’re getting close to the stretch run for the fantasy regular season. This is a good point to evaluate your team and try to make some trades to shore up your weaknesses, but hopefully you do that in a more thoughtful way than the way the Colts have handled their head coaching situation. The Colts made news this week by firing Frank Reich, and then hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. Saturday becomes the first NFL head coach ever to have zero prior experience coaching at the college or NFL level. Making things better, the team didn’t realize until after Saturday was hired that they didn’t have a single coach on the staff who had ever served as an offensive play-caller. They settled on assistant QB coach Parks Frazier to handle those duties this week. What could go wrong?
Week 9 was also a messy week for the rookies outside of the top names that have been consistently producing. Malik Willis had another shit show of a performance in his second career start, Romeo Doubs suffered what looked to be a pretty bad ankle injury, and Drake London failed to break 25 receiving yards. Cade Otton was the one bright spot among the less heralded rookies in week 9, scoring a game-winning TD as he finished as the PPR TE4 for the week. There’s another round of notable byes this week (Bengals, Jets, Ravens, and Patriots), so you could again be looking for some replacements to fill in, and there are probably some rookies among the guys you’re considering. I’m here to help talk you through the outlooks for those rookies as always.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into week 10…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 10: @TB): Walker has been the starting running back in Seattle for 4 weeks now since the Rashaad Penny injury. He’s handled 19+ touches in all 4 games while scoring at least 1 TD in each game and averaging 22 PPR points per game. This is a tough matchup – Tampa Bay ranks 13th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and has allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game – but Walker’s volume is locked in. He’s not a great option for DFS lineups this week, but Walker is a rock solid RB2 who we know has top-12 upside.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Pierce has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 5 of his last 6 games and handled 18+ touches in all 6. Negative game script hasn’t been a problem for him, so don’t worry about the Texans being a touchdown underdog this week. The Giants rank 24th in run defense DVOA, and Pierce should see his usual workload, a workload that has made him the PPR RB12 in points per game since week 3. He’s a safe RB2 this week.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): We haven’t seen Olave put up the kind of crazy 13+ target games we saw from him earlier this season lately, but he’s now reached double-digit PPR points in 7 straight games and faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the most WR points per game in the league. Olave has a weekly WR3 floor, but he has legit WR1 upside this week in a plus matchup. Don’t overthink this one. Olave should be in your lineups.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): As expected, Allgeier saw his playing time take a dip with Cordarrelle Patterson back in week 9. Allgeier played his lowest snap share since week 2 at 38%, but he still handled 11 touches and tallied more than a dozen PPR points against the Chargers. During CPatt’s absence, Allgeier was a safe weekly flex play, but he becomes more of a matchup-dependent one with Patterson back. The Falcons run enough that Patterson’s return doesn’t destroy his value. Luckily Allgeier gets a good matchup this week. The Panthers rank 23rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Allgeier had his best fantasy game of the year against these Panthers with a RB13 PPR finish in week 8, albeit with Cordarrelle sidelined. I don’t know that I’d count on another finish that high from Allgeier, but he’s a useful RB3 this week if you need help there.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): The Steelers jettisoned Chase Claypool to the Bears during the bye week, thinning their passing target tree a bit. Claypool had drawn a 17% target share for the season, and now leaves those targets to be divvied up between Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth. The Saints haven’t been a very daunting pass defense this season since trading away CJ Gardner-Johnson and losing Marshon Lattimore to injury. They’ve allowed the 6th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, and their two starting corners with Lattimore out rank 84th and 109th in PFF coverage grade out of 113 qualified cornerbacks. There’s a chance Lattimore could return here, but it’s safe to assume he’d have some rust and he’d spend most of his day covering Diontae Johnson. That should give Pickens a huge opportunity for a statement game here. The Steelers’ passing game as a whole remains underwhelming with Kenny Pickett at QB, but Pickens is a pretty good bet for 60+ yards with upside for more in a favorable matchup. He should have a higher weekly floor moving forward with Claypool gone.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Dulcich is the PPR TE6 in points per game since he returned from IR in week 6. He’s been a top-12 finisher in all 3 weeks that he’s played, and he’s earned a 20% target share in each of the last two games. The Broncos get a matchup this week that they should be attacking through the air. The Titans rank 1st in run defense DVOA and 15th in pass defense DVOA. They also allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Dulcich should be a top-8 option at tight end this week.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): Otton has played 80% or more of the snaps in 4 games this season. He’s scored double-digit PPR points in 3 of them, and this week gets to face a defense that has allowed the most tight end points per game. A lot of those points allowed came in two blowup games by TJ Hockenson and Taysom Hill, but the Seahawks have allowed double-digit PPR points to an opposing tight end in 7 of their 9 games, and 8+ points to a tight end in all of them. Cam Brate may return this week, so keep an eye on reports on who will be starting at tight end for the Bucs in this one, but I think Otton has done enough to earn the job going forward, and he’s a top-10 option this week at the position if he’s going to be the starter.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Pickett is only on the borderline if we’re talking about superflex or 2 QB leagues. The Saints have been a middling defense against QBs, allowing the 16th-most QB points per game, but the place they’ve been hurt is by running QBs. They’ve allowed the 6th-most QB rushing yards per game, and all the QBs who have scored 17+ points against them have either thrown 3 TD passes or run for 30+ yards. Pickett has just 2 TD passes and 8 INTs for the year, so I wouldn’t count on him to throw for 3 scores, especially after the team traded away one of his weapons in Chase Claypool. Pickett did run for 37 yards in week 8 against Philly, but it was his first game with more than 20 rushing yards. If Pickett finishes in the top-20 QBs for the week, it’ll be a positive outcome for him.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): Since returning to the Commanders’ lineup in week 5, Robinson has been an uninspiring floor play RB3 for fantasy purposes. If you’re looking for something in the range of 15 carries for 50 yards, and maybe a target, B-Rob is a pretty good bet to do that each week. If you’re looking for more, you’re probably barking up the wrong tree. Philadelphia had been less than stellar against the run prior to last week, but with rookie defensive tackle Jordan Davis sidelined in week 10 they let Dameon Pierce run roughshod over them to the tune of 139 yards on 27 carries. Davis will be out again this week, but don’t fall into the trap of expecting a similar outing from Robinson. B-Rob hasn’t averaged more than 3.65 yards per carry in any game this season, and while he may have slightly better efficiency in this one, you’re still going to need a touchdown to get a truly useful fantasy day out of Robinson. He’s gotten at least 1 carry inside the 10-yard line in just two of the five games he’s played so far.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): There’s been a lot of noise made about the end of Tampa’s comeback win over the Rams last weekend, and how Leonard Fournette was frustrated to be standing on the sideline with White in the game for a crucial late drive. Some beat writers have hinted at White’s role growing here, but don’t get carried away. White’s 11 touches last Sunday were a season-high, but his 35% snap share was right in line with where he’s been over the last 6 weeks. Fournette is still getting all the goal line carries, and against the Rams he played 100% of the 2-minute offense snaps and was in a route more than twice as often as White. The Seahawks are a very favorable running back matchup – they rank 10th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9th-most RB points per game - but you’re still counting on White to do damage on 8-10 touches if you start him, and they’re not the highest value touches. White has averaged just 4.3 yards per touch on the season, and he’s found the end zone only once. View him as a very dicey RB3 option this week.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Pacheco has officially been the starter in the Chiefs’ backfield for two games now, and in those games, he’s scored a total of 6.2 PPR points. This is still a 3-headed rotation, and Pacheco isn’t getting the goal line carries or catching passes. Jacksonville allows the 10th-most RB points per game, but Pacheco probably isn’t going to help you much unless he gets into the end zone.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Wan’Dale has shown the ability to earn targets in his first few full games played, but the Giants would be wise to use a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley this week. The Texans rank dead last in run defense DVOA and have allowed over 150 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Wan’Dale’s average target depth is just 4.8 yards downfield, so he needs volume or to score a TD to have a productive fantasy day, and I expect the Giants’ passing volume to be lower than usual. Robinson is a PPR WR4 this week, but you can probably find better options.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): London hasn’t caught 5+ passes in a game since week 2, and he hasn’t caught for 50+ yards or scored a touchdown since week 3. The team’s low passing volume continues to be a drag on his production. The Falcons faced this same Panthers defense in an overtime shootout two weeks ago, and London finished that game with 4-31 on 5 targets. The Panthers have allowed the 9th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up out wide per Sports Info Solutions, but it's been nearly impossible to count on more than 5-6 targets for London per game. He’s a WR4 even in a strong matchup this week.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 10: @LV): Sam Ehlinger has started 2 games at QB for the Colts, and they haven’t been pretty for the Indianapolis offense. Pierce has averaged 2 catches for 44 yards in those two games, and this week things could get even messier with a first-time head coach and first-time play caller in charge. The Raiders’ defense is bad. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-most WR points per game, but I don’t see how you can trust Pierce in lineups this week unless you’re desperate.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): If Dotson is able to return in week 10, you’d be best served waiting a week before seriously considering him for lineups. I wouldn’t expect him to get a full workload in his first game back, we haven’t seen what kind of rapport he has with Taylor Heinicke, and he would be tangling with a great pair of corners in Darius Slay Jr. and James Bradberry. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Eagles have allowed the 6th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers lined up on the perimeter, where Dotson lines up 80% of the time.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Willis’ rushing production did take a step forward in his second NFL start (he tallied 40 rushing yards), but he looked like he didn’t belong under center in an NFL offense. In two full games played, he’s thrown for 135 yards, and lost 38 yards on sacks. If he gets to start again this week, it will come against a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in pass defense DVOA and allows the fewest QB points per game. I expect Tannehill to be back at QB this week but keep Willis away from your lineups if he gets the start again.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Cook’s role has increased in the last two weeks, seeing over 20% of the offensive snaps for just the 2nd and 3rd times this season, but that could go the other direction this Sunday with Nyheim Hines more up to speed in the offense. With his role so up in the air, Cook isn’t much of an option against a Minnesota defense that allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Blackshear was a pleasant surprise in week 9, finishing as the PPR RB11 for the week, but most of that production came in garbage time with Baker Mayfield under center. The Panthers have already announced they’re going back to PJ Walker this week, and Chuba Hubbard looks to be on track to return to action after getting in full practices this week. Blackshear has just 1 target from Walker on the season, and his limited role may all but vanish with Hubbard back. The matchup is favorable against a bad Atlanta defense, but there isn’t enough opportunity to trust in a repeat performance here.
RB Jerome Ford, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Ford should return from IR this week, but there just isn’t room in this backfield for him to carve out an initial role beyond special teams. I would expect Ford to be behind D’Ernest Johnson for the RB3 role in the offense. Running backs not named Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt have totaled just 41 offensive snaps for the season.
WR Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Toure played an expanded role in Detroit last week after Romeo Doubs left with an ankle injury and Christian Watson left with a possible concussion, but the Packers leaned more into 12 personnel after those injuries, with tight end Josiah Deguara and Toure splitting that extra playing time. Watson is cleared from his concussion and should be back this week, meaning Toure is unlikely to match the 38% snap share he played last weekend. Toure is only in play if you’re desperate this week.
WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Shaheed made some splashy big plays in his first couple games of the season, but he played a season-low 5 offensive snaps in week 9. The Steelers do give up more WR points per game than any other team in the league, but they’ve allowed just 5 plays this season of 40+ yards, and Shaheed is going to need one of those big plays to be fantasy relevant on such limited playing time.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Bell has yet to reach 6 PPR points in a game this season. Miami’s offense has been operating at a high level in recent weeks with Tua back at full strength, and Cleveland would be wise to attack them through the air if they need to score to keep pace. The Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, but even in games where the Browns threw the ball 35+ times, Bell has been a non-factor. We’re still waiting around for Deshaun Watson to come back for Bell to have a chance at relevance.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Moore’s snaps didn’t disappear in Kadarius Toney’s first game with the Chiefs – he was on the field for 26% of the offensive snaps on Sunday night – but I’d expect that number to go down as Toney gets up to speed in the offense. Moore isn’t exactly doing damage on the snaps that he is playing. He hasn’t caught a pass since week 6.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Okonkwo started off Sunday night’s game with a 48-yard reception on the first play from scrimmage, but he didn’t touch the ball again and was targeted just twice the rest of the night. He was still on the field for just 35% of the offensive snaps while fellow tight ends Geoff Swaim and Austin Hooper were both over 60%. Even if Tannehill comes back and they throw a bit more, Okonkwo remains no more than a TD dart throw.
TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Quitoriano got the start and scored a touchdown last Thursday in his NFL debut, but it was his only target of the game as he played just 18 offensive snaps. The Giants are a middling TE defense (13th-most TE points allowed per game), but both Brevin Jordan and OJ Howard remain ahead of the rookie in the pecking order despite Quitoriano being credited with the “start” last week.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 10: @GB): In the 5 games where Dalton Schultz has played more than 10 snaps, Hendershot and Ferguson have combined for 7 catches, 35 yards, and 2 TDs. Green Bay has allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points per game. Bet on one of these backup tight ends finding the end zone at your own peril.
Rookies on Byes in Week 10: WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, WR Tyquan Thornton, NE, TEs Isaiah Likely & Charlie Kolar, BAL
Rookies Who May as Well be on Byes: RB Ronnie Rivers, LAR, RB Snoop Conner, JAX, RB Keontay Ingram, ARI, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, TE Jelani Woods, IND, TE Trey McBride, ARI, TEs Cole Turner & Armani Rogers, WAS
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Najee Harris’ continued struggles may have finally forced Mike Tomlin’s hand in the Steelers’ backfield. Tomlin hinted this week that Warren could see more touches going forward, and some local Steelers beat writers have tossed out that idea as well. Warren has averaged nearly 2 yards more per touch than Najee so far this season. I don’t think he’d continue at that efficiency level with a bigger workload, but he’s undoubtedly shown more juice than Najee this season and deserves more opportunities. The Saints are a middling run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 13th-fewest RB points per game. If you’re desperate for RB help, Tomlin is going to give Warren the chance to develop the hot hand this week, and if he does, he could provide a useful RB3 performance.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 10: @SF): Spiller isn’t a good option for this week against a great 49ers defense, but he’s suddenly an upside stash for deeper leagues after working his way into the RB2 role for the Chargers behind Austin Ekeler. Spiller handled 30% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts last week in a tight game with the Falcons. Sony Michel still worked as the backup in passing situations, but Spiller has the skills to earn more work there and he’s going to see a good number of opportunities in games with neutral or positive game scripts. Ekeler has played just 62.3% of the offensive snaps for the season, so Spiller could carve out a huge role if he becomes the full-time RB2. He’s free to pick up in most leagues and could wind up being a weekly RB3 option down the stretch.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Watson left last week’s game with a possible concussion. He was apparently cleared to return to the game, but the team held him back as a precaution. He should be a full go this week against a Dallas defense that’s been known to be aggressive in the secondary. The Packers need Watson to step up this week with Romeo Doubs sidelined, and I like his chances to pull in at least one downfield target in this one. The floor here is zero points, but Watson costs just $2,600 in DraftKings showdown contests for this game, half of what Samori Toure does, and I like Watson much more than Toure in this one. Toure has played nearly 60% of his snaps in the slot, and the Cowboys are much more vulnerable to receivers on the outside than in the slot. According to Sports Info Solutions, Dallas allows the 13th-most points per game to receivers lined up outside, and the 23rd most to receivers lined up in the slot.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): The Titans have opened the practice window for Burks to be able to return from IR, and Burks himself said he expects to be activated for week 10. You shouldn’t throw him into lineups this week, but if he’s a free agent he’s worth picking up in most leagues. The Titans are desperate for wide receiver help, and Burks could take over their WR1 role in the back half of the season. For week 10, Burks will likely be eased back in, and he faces a Denver defense that allows the fewest WR points per game and ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA. Only 1 receiver has scored 10+ points against the Broncos in the last 3 weeks.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
We’re already on double digit weeks? How can this be!
Seems like just yesterday we were all waiting for the Rams and Bengals to start their march back to the Super Bo…oh…well it was the start of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers once again adding to their Hall of Fame careers with an NFC Championship Game matc…oh…remember Raiders fans basking in false hope?
Boy time flies! So let’s roll with it!
Week 10 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
14 – TENNESSEE over Denver – No one seems to be talking about the Titans – its about time they start
13 – PHILADELPHIA over Washington – Respect level is creeping up for the Eagles…but that really doesn’t matter when you host Washington.
12 – SAN FRANCISCO over Los Angeles Chargers – The 9ers are kind of scary! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE 49ERS WILL REPRESENT THE NFC IN THE SUPER BOWL.
11 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Houston – The Giants are going to win another game…yeah I don’t know how either.
10 – KANSAS CITY over Jacksonville – The only pre-season difference for this one is that the Jags have made it so this game is not on the top line.
9 – LAS VEGAS over Indianapolis – The Colts roll into Vegas with a backup QB and a coach freshly plucked from the desk of Good Morning Football…the Raiders HAVE to be able to take advantage of this, right? … … … r…right??
8 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – This a game to see who stays out of the NFC West basement…as was predicted.
7 – MIAMI over Cleveland – Lesson learned – if the Dolphins are playing…take the over!
6 – Dallas over GREEN BAY – Picking only one road team to win this week is interesting…the fact that its for a game played in Lambeau is just fun!
5 – TAMPA BAY over Seattle – The German crowd will get to see one of the most dominant quarterbacks in the league! Also appearing is Tom Brady,
4 – BUFFALO over Minnesota – A Josh Allen injury could very well open the AFC WAY up!
3 – CHICAGO over Detroit – The Bears’ performance last week makes me think that they are good enough to beat the Lions at home…barely.
2 – CAROLINA over Atlanta – Welcome back to Thursday Night mediocrity!
1 – PITTSBURGH over New Orleans – A small part of me is thinking that this may be a bit of a coming out party for Kenny Pickett
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- Written by David Biggs
Week 10 has Josh Allen as the QB1, like usual. But it still remains to be seen whether or not he is at full speed with the elbow injury he sustained toward the end of the game last week. What is more interesting is how some of the lesser known names have risen in the rankings throughout the season so far - like Geno Smith (QB6), Rachaad White (RB36), Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR39), etc. As always, the individual matchups and player trends will determine your success as much as any ranking possibly can - but I do factor these items into the rankings as much as possible. Currently, my rankings are sitting at #8 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com.
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 10 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
2.04 Points Per Touch
That’s a hell of a lot of points to gain every single time you touch the ball. When you gain over two points, on average, across an entire game, that’s incredible. When you do that after 26 touches, it means you’ve had a hell of a day. Joe Mixon lit up my fantasy league, your fantasy league – everybody’s fantasy leagues this week. 22 carries, 153 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 4 receptions, 58 receiving yards, and one more receiving touchdown marks the best game he’s had in his career. It’s a top-10 all-time fantasy performance. He scored more than the RB2 and the RB3 combined. More than halfway through his season, he scored 34.8% of his total points. He’s now the RB4 on the season – he would have been as low as the RB18 going into the week. Mixon completely overshadowed a QB who is starting to become a genuine fantasy breakout.
178 Rushing Yards
There was only one player who had more rushing yards than Joe Mixon, and it wasn’t a running back. Justin Fields topped anything that Lamar Jackson has done this season. OK, by 0.1 points, but the hyperbole is irresistible. Fields set a new record – the most rushing yards by a QB in a regular season game (only 3 yards shy of tying the all-time record). Fields has the most fantasy points by a QB over the last 5 weeks, and over the last 3 weeks, he’s stomping on the competition by over 20 total points. So, though it’s happening slowly, the Bears are slowly working a bit more passing into their offense as they’re starting to really click. This week they only ran the ball 58% of the time, considerably down from the 67% they were at when we checked in with them earlier in the season. I wish I could buy stock in Kool-Aid in Chicago right now because everybody around here is drinking it. Fields is trending up, scoring more points than his previous game in each of the last 6 weeks.
3 Straight 100+ Yard Games
Over the last 3 weeks, Travis Etienne has 379 rushing yards, topping 100 in each of those games. Only Derrick Henry has more during that stretch (he’s averaging 150+ during that stretch and has 5 of 100+), but this isn’t about Henry. This entry is about Etienne, a player who is practically a rookie, considering he did not see a single snap last season. He’s finally getting the ball a lot more, with his 3 highest totals of carries over this 3-game stretch. He has scored 4 touchdowns during this time, with his first career score coming back in week 7. Etienne is finally becoming a central focus of the Jaguars' offense and has the backfield almost all to himself after James Robinson was traded to the Jets. Once he can get into a good groove with the passing game, he will be a top-10 RB.
122.7 Receiving Yards per Game
Tyreek Hill is having a hell of a season. Through 9 games, he has a stat line that most players would like to see at the end of the year. Hill already has been targeted 100 times for 76 receptions and 1,104 yards. He’s on pace for over 2,000 yards – 2,085 to be exact. The record was set by Calvin Johnson with 1,964 back in 2012. In many categories, Hill’s stats are better this year than he ever had in Kansas City with Mahomes as his QB. He’s got the highest catch percentage of his career, averaging nearly 2 receptions per game above his career high. He has more than a 30 yards per game average than his best season. Hill is a huge reason that the Miami passing game has exploded. Quietly, they have the second-most passing yards in the league and the third-most passing touchdowns. They’re being incredibly efficient considering they have the 15th most passing attempts.
31.8 Fantasy Points in the Last Three Weeks
So maybe we’re playing with some by weeks, but as long as I admit that up front, I can use this one – right? Cole Kmet is leading all TEs in total points over the last 3 weeks (though Juwan Johnson is giving him a good challenge, late on Monday night), mostly due to the two touchdowns he scored this week. Kmet’s week 9 total is nearly as many points as he has scored in the last 4 weeks combined. He also had season highs in both receptions and targets, along with his second-highest receiving yardage total. Kmet is looking like he could be a viable weekly starting TE for the rest of the season, provided the Bears' offense keeps looking like a competent NFL team, rather than a team that was far too imbalanced earlier in the year.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 8 finally brought us the scoring outburst we’ve been clamoring for all season. The week saw a season-high 8 games where the teams combined for 45+ points, and a season-high 9 skill players put up 30+ PPR points. I’m sure you saw higher overall scores across your fantasy leagues in week 8, and hopefully you were the beneficiary of some of those scoring outbursts. Don’t get too used to it though – week 9 is the one of just two weeks this season with 6 teams on a bye in the same week, so overall scores will probably come down. You’re likely going to have to do work to fill in some lineup gaps this week, and if you’ve been here before, you know I’ve got some rookies to tell you about that could help you do that.
Week 8 was sort of a mixed bag for the rookies. We saw Garrett Wilson get his season back on track with the 2nd 100-yard game of his career. Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker III both had lackluster days that were salvaged by late TDs. Tyler Allgeier outproduced them both. Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure both got into the end zone for the Packers on Sunday night while Christian Watson left with a concussion. Chris Olave and Alec Pierce had ho-hum games while George Pickens and Drake London disappointed. Malik Willis got a win in his first start but posted an abysmal fantasy day. Which of these guys can you rely on to help you through the byes in week 9? That’s what I’m here to discuss.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s get into week 9…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 9: @Ari.): Walker looked like he was going to be a huge let down in week 8, but a 4th-quarter touchdown helped propel him to a RB25 finish that didn’t kill you if he was in your lineup. It was Walker’s 4th straight game with a touchdown and 3rd straight with 18+ carries. He ran for 97 yards and a score in the first meeting with these Cardinals back in week 6. The lack of meaningful passing game targets will always limit Walker’s ceiling, but his volume on the ground keeps him a safe weekly RB2, especially facing a defense he’s already smashed against in a week with so many byes.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Olave had his worst fantasy day since week 1 last Sunday, and he still managed to post double-digit PPR points. Olave was still heavily involved in the passing game (25% target share and 32% air yardage share), but the Saints just played from ahead all day and didn’t need to throw much in a 24-0 victory. Things should go back to normal in week 9. New Orleans is a 3-point underdog at home against the Ravens on Monday night. At some point Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry will return the lineup, but for now those guys feel like figments of our imagination. Olave likely will maintain the WR1 role when they’re back, and the Ravens allow the 5th-most WR points per game. He's a top-24 option this week no matter who else is able to suit up.
UPDATE: Michael Thomas has been placed on IR and likely will miss the remainder of the season.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): This recommendation is contingent on the status of Cordarrelle Patterson this week, but if C-Patt sits, I like Allgeier as a strong RB2 option in this one. Allgeier has played more than 55% of the snaps in all 4 games Patterson has missed, and he’s led the backfield in PPR points in 3 of them and in routes run in all 4. The Chargers have allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game and rank just 23rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. It’s one of the best matchups a running back can draw. If Cordarrelle returns, you could probably still get away with starting Allgeier as a RB3 if you’re in a pinch.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Phi.): My fears about Pierce last week came to fruition for most of his day against the Titans’ stout run defense. Pierce had tallied just 6.8 PPR points for the day prior to his garbage-time TD in the final 30 seconds that saved his afternoon. You probably were breathing a sigh of relief when he got into the end zone if you started him last week, but you might’ve missed a positive change to his role while you were stressing over his stat line. PFF’s Dwain McFarland pointed out this week that Pierce was on the field for 100% of the Texans’ snaps in the two-minute offense. They were the first snaps he’s seen all year in the two-minute drill, and it was on those snaps that he scored that late touchdown. Those are the snaps where Pierce can put up garbage time receiving production and pad both his floor and his ceiling. Despite their 7-0 record, the Eagles are just a middling RB defense. They’ve allowed the 15th-most RB points per game, and rank 22nd in run defense DVOA. Pierce would be a reasonable RB2 this week on just his rushing role, but if the two-minute snaps continue he’s got the upside for a top-12 finish. The Texans should be fighting from behind late in this game.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): The Jets’ passing game has been pretty rough since Zach Wilson took the starting job back in week 4, but week 8 showed us that things aren’t as dire as they’ve seemed. Zach is still going to be inefficient, but when the game script is bad the passing volume is going to be there. Zach has started 5 games this season. In the three games where the Jets never trailed by more than 2 points, he averaged 22 passing attempts per game. In the other two games (both games where the Jets fell behind by double-digits), he averaged 38.5 attempts. They’re nearly certain to be in negative game script as 13-point underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense has been impressive, ranking 4th in pass defense DVOA, but Garrett Wilson has benefitted from Elijah Moore being in the doghouse. He played his highest snap share of the season last week and piled up over 100 yards for the 2nd time this year. He looks to be the team’s clear WR1 in a game where the Jets are likely to throw the ball 40+ times. He should be viewed as an upside WR2 this week and will probably be a bargain at his current price tag in DFS contests ($4,800 on DraftKings). With Breece Hall out for the season, games with negative game script could become more frequent for the Jets. Garrett Wilson is a guy you should be trying to trade for now before his price goes up.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 9: @Det.): Figuring out when to start Doubs this season has felt a bit like playing whack-a-mole. He pops up scoring points for a couple weeks, so you take a swing at starting him in your lineups, and then he disappears for a couple weeks, only to pop up again when you’ve already moved on. You’re always chasing those elusive weeks when he’s useful. On the plus side for Doubs, his playing time has remained consistent. He checks in above an 85% route participation rate every week, and he’s earned at least 7 targets in 4 of the last 6 games. There’s still plenty of volatility here, but with so many byes this week and Green Bay facing a Detroit defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, it's hard to view Doubs as anything less than a solid WR3 this week. Green Bay has one of the highest implied point totals of the week at 26.25 points, so this is an offense that you want to target for your lineups, and Doubs is a full-time player in it.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 9: @NO): Mark Andrews status remains up in the air for week 9, and Rashod Bateman has already been ruled out. Likely could be the #2 target in this passing game on Monday night. The Saints have been erasing tight ends so far this season – no tight end has found the end zone against them or reached 7 fantasy points against them (half-PPR) all season – but Zach Ertz is the only quality tight end they’ve faced. The Ravens are going to have to lean on Likely if Andrews is out. Don’t worry about the matchup. Likely is probably going to finish as a top-12 tight end this week if Andrews sits. I’d be much less excited to start him if Andrews is able to play.
UPDATE: Rashod Bateman has been placed on IR and will miss the remainder of the season. Likely may have a bigger role moving forward even when Andrews is on the field.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Robinson’s week-to-week fantasy outlook hinges on volume and getting into the end zone. He’s averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry in every game he’s played this season, and he’s earned just two targets all year. That didn’t stop him from putting up respectable fantasy days in wins against the Bears and Packers, but the recent re-emergence of Antonio Gibson and negative game script in the 4th quarter against the Colts resulted in B-Rob putting up just 2 fantasy points in week 8. I don’t see much reason to be optimistic about a bounce-back in week 9. The Vikings are favored by 3, and they rank 16th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10th-fewest RB points per game. 16th may not sound very impressive, but Robinson failed to run efficiently against Chicago and Green Bay, who rank 28th & 31st respectively. This looks like a game where 10-12 carries from Robinson would be a positive result for him, and that kind of volume probably means around 35-40 yards. You’ll need a TD to not be disappointed. I’d look elsewhere unless you’re stuck.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Ten.): Pacheco was announced as the Chiefs starting running back ahead of their week 7 tilt with the 49ers, but he handled all of 8 carries in that game, and 4 of them came in the 4th quarter with the team up by double-digits. He did see a few more first half carries than usual, but it was far from the featured back role people were hoping for after the announcement. This is still a 3-way committee with CEH and Jerick McKinnon. Kansas City is an 11-point favorite this week, so there’s an opportunity for some extra garbage time carries, but the Titans rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-fewest running back points per game. Pacheco doesn’t catch passes (just 2 receptions all season), so he’s going to need to have success on the ground to post a useful day. He’s a low-end RB3 this week.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): White continues to play just enough to keep himself in the borderline discussion each week. He’s handled between 7 and 9 touches in 5 straight games and consistently finishes as a PPR RB4. Leonard Fournette continues to handle the goal line touches and enough of the passing work that White lives on the fringe of useful. The Rams have allowed the 11th-fewest running back points per game, so this isn’t the matchup to bet on White stepping up his production on that same workload. If you are desperate for a running back this week, White should be a fringe RB3 with all the byes going on, but I wouldn’t count on him for much more than that.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): London continues to be a victim of Arthur Smith’s run-heavy play calling, and I don’t see that getting better for him in week 9. The rookie hasn’t reached 8 PPR points in any of his last 5 games despite a 24.2% target share over that span. On paper, you may be looking at this game as a get-right spot for London. The Chargers seem like the kind of team that can put the Falcons in negative game script, and they allow the 12th-most wide receiver points per game. It seems like a great opportunity for Atlanta’s WR1 to have a nice day. Unfortunately, the Chargers offense will be a lot less explosive without Keenan Allen or Mike Williams, and they boast one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chargers have allowed a league-worst 6.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Game script might not be so negative for Atlanta, and the Falcons should be able to impose their will in the running game, especially with it looking like Cordarrelle Patterson will return from IR this week. Anything over 5 targets for London in this game should be seen as a win. That gets him to the fringe of being playable for week 9 with 6 teams off, but you likely have better options.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 9: @NE): Pierce has topped 60 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in 5 of his last 6 games, but my concerns about passing volume with Sam Ehlinger taking over at QB proved to be valid in week 8. The young QB threw the ball just 23 times, with only 5 targets going to Pierce. Matt Ryan averaged 42.4 passing attempts per game in his 7 starts. Pierce has made the most of his opportunities this season, averaging over 10 yards per target in those last 6 games, a mark only 18 players have hit for the season so far, but the more concerning stat was that he saw his lowest route participation rate since week 4 at just 65%. The Colts played with 2 tight ends on the field more often after the QB switch, which cuts into Pierce’s playing time. He’s still a good bet to see right around 5 targets, and maybe a little bit more if Jonathan Taylor sits this week, but if you start him, you shouldn’t expect more than a floor performance. The Patriots rank 5th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 11th fewest WR points per game. You could do worse than Pierce as a bye week fill in, but temper expectations.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Dotson isn’t practicing yet this week as of Wednesday, but there’s a chance he could return for Sunday’s game. The matchup looks good on paper. The Vikings rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-most WR points per game, but Dotson would be coming off a 4-week layoff and QB Taylor Heinicke has been leaning heavily on the guys he’s comfortable with – Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. McLaurin has averaged 8 targets per game in Heinicke’s two starts, and he’s seen air yardage shares of 48% and 62% in those games. He’s the WR you want for fantasy this week. Dotson has some upside as a WR4 option if he does play, but I’d prefer other options if you’re not forced to start the rookie.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): Cam Brate is practicing in a limited capacity as of Wednesday, so keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering Otton. If Brate plays, you certainly don’t want to plug Otton into lineups. If Brate sits, Otton is still not a great play this week against a Rams’ defense that allows the 3rd-fewest tight end points per game. Only George Kittle and Zach Ertz have scored 7 points against them in a game this year, and Otton hasn’t reached a 15% target share in a game this season. In his productive weeks, Tom Brady has been throwing the ball 50+ times. Otton is a floor play TE2 this week if Brate sits.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Cook seemed to finally gain some traction in the Bills offense in week 8, playing his second-highest snap share of the season and handling some touches in the 2nd quarter while the game was still in doubt, but the Bills may have derailed that progress by trading for Nyheim Hines at the deadline. Cook may be back to being the RB3 in the offense this week. Buffalo is a two-TD favorite in this game, so there’s a very good chance that Cook gets some run in garbage time, but I wouldn’t count on big production from those carries against a Jets’ defense that ranks 8th in run defense DVOA. Cook is nothing more than an upside dart throw this week for DFS contests and the deepest of season-long leagues.
RBs Kyren Williams & Ronnie Rivers, LAR (Wk. 9: @TB): Sean McVay has said Kyren Williams could be activated from IR for week 9, but it remains to be seen how big of a role he’ll step into after 7 weeks off. Ronnie Rivers led the backfield in touches last week, but he wasn’t effective with them, totaling just 7.6 PPR points. There’s no guarantee he leads the backfield again this week (my money would be on Darrell Henderson), but the Bucs allow the 6th-fewest RB points per game. No running back in this muddied committee will be more than a desperation bye week fill-in.
UPDATE: Cam Akers returned to practice on Thursday and may be active for week 9, making this committee even less defined.
RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Regardless of whether Chuba Hubbard can return this week or not, Blackshear doesn’t have fantasy relevance in week 9. Spencer Brown served as the change of pace back behind D’Onta Foreman in week 8, and Laviska Shenault more or less functioned as the receiving back. Blackshear played just 7 snaps against the Falcons, and I wouldn’t count on more this week.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Spiller was finally active for the first time this season in week 7 ahead of the bye last week, but he played just 4 snaps and worked behind backup Sony Michel. It’s possible that could’ve been game-script related – the Chargers trailed for most of that game – but you can’t count on Spiller getting significant opportunities this week. The matchup is a good one. Atlanta ranks 26th in run defense DVOA, but there’s no guarantee that Spiller gets more than 1 or 2 carries.
RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Conner played just one offensive snap last week in his season debut. He’s not a fantasy option.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Thornton’s explosive speed always makes him a threat to break a big play, but he has fewer than 3 PPR points in 3 of his 4 games played this season. He scored 2 touchdowns in the other one. His route participation rate has been above 80% in each of the last two weeks, but the targets just haven’t been there. This week’s opponent, the Colts, allow the 2nd-fewest WR points per game.
WRs Christian Watson & Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 9: @Det.): Watson suffered a concussion last week and seems unlikely to be ready to play in Detroit, and the likely return of Allen Lazard this week means Watson’s probably going to play only a handful of snaps if he’s able to clear the protocol. Toure scored a touchdown in week 8, but he played just 14 offensive snaps. Banking on another long TD from Toure on limited snaps this week is just asking to be let down.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Jones had a season-high in touches in week 8, with 3. He’s made a couple nice plays this season when he’s gotten chances, but he’s too buried on the depth chart to be useful in fantasy leagues. The Bears also just traded for Chase Claypool and may get Byron Pringle back this week. Jones is only getting pushed further down that depth chart
WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Shakir hasn’t been targeted more than twice in any game that Isaiah McKenzie has been active for. You’d have to be pretty desperate to consider him this week.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Ten.): Tennessee is a great matchup for wide receivers, but Moore is undoubtedly going to lose snaps after the acquisition of Kadarius Toney from the Giants. Moore was only playing around 30% of the offensive snaps over the last month anyway. Losing any of that playing time is likely the final nail in his fantasy coffin for 2022.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 9: @KC): Okonkwo has quietly seen his playing time go up in recent weeks. He had a season-high 50% route participation rate in week 8 and mostly played ahead of Austin Hooper. He’d be a sneaky TD dart throw this week facing a KC defense that has allowed 5 tight end scores in 7 games, but the Titans just don’t throw enough to rely on any of their pass catchers, especially if Ryan Tannehill is out again. Tannehill has thrown more than 25 pass attempts just once in his last 5 starts, and the Titans threw the ball just 10 times last week with Malik Willis under center. Game script could force them to throw more as 11-point underdogs in Kansas City, but look for the Titans to do everything they can to run the ball and keep it away from Patrick Mahomes. The floor here is non-existent, and the ceiling is maybe 4-5 targets.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): The Seahawks have allowed the most TE points per game, but McBride hasn’t been targeted since week 4. He played 20 snaps in the first meeting with the Seahawks a couple weeks ago and didn’t see the ball come his way even once. He’s not an option this week.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 9: @NE): I mentioned last week that I was concerned that the Colts’ passing volume would take a significant hit with the switch to Sam Ehlinger, and that proved to be a valid concern in his first start. Ehlinger attempted just 23 passes on Sunday, and only 4 of them targeted tight ends (none of them to Jelani Woods). The Patriots have allowed the 6th-most tight end points per game this season, but the Colts would be wise to attack them on the ground. New England ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA and 27th in run defense DVOA. If Jonathan Taylor is unable to play, that could force a little more passing volume. It would make Woods an intriguing DFS dart throw, but nothing more than that. He's still mired in a 3-headed tight end rotation.
TEs Armani Rogers & Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): The Vikings have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 7th-most points per game to the position, but the Commanders’ tight ends not named Logan Thomas have had just one total outing with more than 3 targets in a game (John Bates in week 4). Thomas could return this week, but even if he doesn’t this is a 3-way logjam that doesn’t offer much fantasy upside. If Thomas sits and you want to throw a dart in a showdown contest at one of their tight ends, my money would be on Rogers ($600 on DraftKings), but none are very good options.
Rookies on Byes: QB Kenny Pickett, PIT, RB Jaylen Warren, PIT, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG, WR George Pickens, PIT, WR David Bell, CLE, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, TE Greg Dulcich, DEN, TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 9: @KC): To call Willis’ NFL debut a disappointment would be a huge understatement, but if Tannehill isn’t able to return this week I kind of like the rookie to have a modest bounce-back, at least from a fantasy perspective. Willis wasn’t asked to make plays in week 8 because the Titans didn’t need him to. The Texans were helpless to stop Derrick Henry and Dontrell Hilliard on the ground, and their banged-up offense couldn’t muster enough scoring to make it much of a game. The Chiefs are not likely to have the same problems this week. Tennessee is an 11-point underdog, so Willis will probably have to put the ball in the air quite a bit more this week, and he’s likely to use his legs quite a bit more trying to create plays. The Chiefs have allowed every QB they’ve faced this season to throw for multiple TDs and score 15+ fantasy points. None of those prior opponents were as inexperienced as Willis or had worse receiving weapons, so don’t view 15 points as Willis’ floor, but I like his chances to deliver 50+ rushing yards and finish as a serviceable QB2 this week (assuming he starts and Tannehill sits).
RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Darrel Williams returned from injury in week 8, and Ingram didn’t play a single offensive snap. That goose egg is probably going to make Ingram an unpopular pick for DFS lineups this week, but Williams was placed on IR on Wednesday. James Conner continues to practice on a limited basis, but that’s where he’s been the last couple weeks and wound up inactive in each game. If Conner misses another game this week, Ingram will work as the RB2 behind Eno Benjamin again. He handled 11 touches in that same role in week 7, and this week he faces a Seattle defense that allows the 7th-most RB points per game. He’ll likely need to get into the end zone to reach double-digit points, but Ingram costs just $1,200 for Showdown contests on DraftKings.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 9: Bye): Warren is on a bye this week, but he may be worth scooping up on the waiver wire if he’s still sitting out there in your leagues. Najee Harris continues to look like a shell of the player he was last season, and the public noise has been getting louder that Warren needs to see more opportunities. Maybe the week off helps Najee rest his ailing foot (he’s been dealing with a Lisfranc injury all season), or maybe it allows the Steelers to take a hard look at which running back gives them a better chance to win. Warren has been significantly more efficient than Najee with his opportunities, and the Steelers have a favorable schedule of run defenses late in the season. Each of Pittsburgh’s final 6 opponents of the year are currently either in the bottom-10 at limiting RB fantasy points or in the bottom 10 in run defense DVOA.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
So THAT’S what an exciting trade deadline is supposed to look like!
I hope you all kept track of all the moves, we now have to pick games with a few big name players wearing different jerseys
No point in delaying the inevitable any longer, let’s get going!
Week 9 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
13 - CINCINNATI over Carolina – The Bengals have a lot of pent up losing to the Browns on national TV aggression to take out on the Panthers.
12 – NEW ENGLAND over Indianapolis – Remember when this was the perpetual Game of the Year matchup? Ah, nostalgia…
11 – KANSAS CITY over Tennessee – Is it me or has the Titans 5-2 record just been an underwhelming one?
10 – Buffalo over NEW YORK JETS – Welp, it was fun to think the Jets were legit for a bit!
9 – Baltimore over NEW ORLEANS – The Ravens solid defense got a whole lot…um…solider…with the Roquan Smith addition.
8 – Minnesota over WASHINGTON – Take what I just said about the Raven, but switch to Vikings, offense, and TJ Hockenson.
7 – Philadelphia over HOUSTON –Still not fully on board with the Eagles, don’t put them too high just because they haven’t lost yet.
6 – Miami over CHICAGO – A battle of two of the biggest splash-makers at the deadline…but Chase Claypool just won’t be enough this week for the Bears.
5 – JACKSONVILLE over Las Vegas – Let me just go ahead and grab this white flag really quick…
4 – ARIZONA over Seattle – DeAndre Hopkins makes such a difference for the Cardinals. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that HOPKINS WILL FINISH WITH 150 YARDS AND TWO TDs THIS WEEK…AT LEAST.
3 – TAMPA BAY over Los Angeles Rams – So the instant classic playoff matchup with these two teams last year? Yeah, maybe see if NFL Network will be airing it instead of watching this one.
2 – Green Bay over DETROIT – The Lions just gave up a major offensive weapon from an already struggling offense…and you STILL can’t have too much confidence in the Packers!
1 – ATLANTA over Los Angeles Chargers – The obligatory “because they’re the home team” pick.