Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re more than a third of the way through the fantasy regular season, and by now you should have a pretty good idea of how your team stacks up. You should know your strengths and weaknesses, and what positions you need more production out of. Unfortunately, thanks to some byes and a plethora of injuries around the league you might be limited in your options to fix those positions in week 6. Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, and Damien Harris have all been ruled out at running back. Other players who remain questionable or out include Rashod Bateman, Kadarius Toney, Kyle Pitts, Chris Olave, Julio Jones, Tee Higgins, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Keenan Allen. It's a little messy out there in week 6, and that means you may have to turn to a rookie to fill in somewhere, and I’m here to guide you through that. Always take into account the context of your league and your roster before applying what’s written below, but there are plenty of rookies to get into for week 6.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s jump into week 6…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 6: @GB): Don’t let the two goal-line scores by Michael Carter fool you. Breece Hall is dominating this backfield. Hall has 35 carries in the last two weeks compared to just 19 for Carter, and he’s bested Carter in route participation by more than 20% in each game as well. He looks like he’s going to push for 20 touches weekly going forward, and the Packers rank a lowly 30th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and allow the 17th-most RB points per game. This is not a matchup to fear. Hall is a rock-solid RB2 with an upside for more in Green Bay.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): If you had the foresight to stash Kenneth Walker on your fantasy rosters this season, Rashaad Penny’s broken tibia may have unlocked a potential league-winner on your fantasy squad. You don’t want to celebrate an injury, but Walker should assume the early-down role that Penny was playing and his usage hints that there could be even more upside for KW3. Rashaad Penny was used in passing routes often, but he was rarely targeted. He had a 42% route participation rate on the season but was targeted on just 7% of his routes run. Walker has been targeted on 23% of his routes run for the season, the highest rate of any Seattle running back. If that continues as his playing time increases, Walker could end up being a top-12 RB the rest of the way. I’d expect DeeJay Dallas to continue handling the passing-down work for now, but it’s not guaranteed. Arizona boasts a slightly above-average run defense (12th in run defense DVOA, 12th-fewest RB points per game allowed), but rushing volume should make Walker a top-20 RB option in this one.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. SF): I got comfortable enough to call London an auto-start the last two weeks, and he responded with back-to-back duds of 3.7 and 7.5 PPR points in those two games. Head Coach Arthur Smith loves to destroy the dreams of fantasy players, but I’m going back to the well here and saying I like London in week 6. The 49ers will be without Emmanuel Moseley and Jimmy Ward for the foreseeable future, and they also may have Kyle Pitts to contend with. That should open things up enough for London to get back on track in what looks like a tough matchup on paper. London is a top-24 WR option for me this week.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 6: vs. NYJ): Doubs continues to operate as the Packers’ WR2. Over the last 3 weeks, he’s averaged about a 90% route participation rate and 7 targets per game since emerging as a starter. The targets last week found their way to Randall Cobb rather than Romeo, but I’d expect there to be a better balance this week. The Packers have an implied total of 27 points this week and Doubs should be back in the 6-8 target range against a defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA. He should be a reasonable WR3 player this week.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Olave is listed as questionable for this game, and I would’ve bet against Olave being able to clear the concussion protocol in time for this game after seeing the way the light went out of his eyes when his head hit the turf last weekend, but he was listed as a full participant in practice on Friday. If he can get cleared and play this weekend, he has obvious upside in an offense that will still be without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, but the Bengals are a tough matchup. Cincy has allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game and has allowed only two receivers to reach a dozen points (half-PPR) all season. If he plays, view Olave as a volume-based WR3.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): The Colts seemed to find something last week with Pierce. The rookie out-targeted Michael Pittman for the first time, and Matt Ryan looked for him in clutch situations, targeting Pierce 3 times on third down and twice on 2nd down with more than 10 yards to go. His route participation rate climbed to a season-high 74% in that game, and he now has 3 straight games where he’s been targeted on at least a quarter of his routes run. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have both already been ruled out for this one, and last week with both players out Matt Ryan had his second-highest pass attempt total of the season despite a very neutral game script. The Jaguars have been tough to throw on, allowing the 12th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 9th in pass defense DVOA, but the absence of the running backs is enough for me to push Pierce up to a fringe WR3/4 for this week. I like his chances at 70+ receiving yards on Sunday.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Pickett’s situation for week 6 isn’t much different than it was for week 5. He faces an elite pass defense in a game where he should be playing from behind and throwing a bunch. The Bucs rank 1st in pass defense DVOA. Pickett did throw for over 300 yards last week on over 50 attempts and finished as the QB19 despite not throwing a touchdown, but his prospects aren’t much better for this one. I’d view him as a volume-based QB2 but would slide him down the rankings a bit in leagues with stiffer penalties for turnovers or sacks taken, and I’d look at other options if I were considering Pickett in a 1-QB league.
QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Zappe was extremely efficient in his first pro start, carving up the Detroit Lions in an easy win. He completed more than 80% of his passes, and his only turnover came on a dropped pass that turned into a pick. That efficiency didn’t lead to much fantasy production. The rookie was the QB25 for the week. It looks like Mac Jones may be able to return this week, but if he doesn’t and it’s Zappe again, I’d expect similar results – a low-volume, efficient passing effort that won’t help you a ton for fantasy. The Browns haven’t allowed any of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced to top 15 fantasy points, a list that includes Justin Herbert last week.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. SF): Allgeier operated as the clear RB1-A in this backfield last week with Cordarrelle Patterson on IR, but he wasn’t a great fantasy play against a stout Bucs defense. He was limited to just 45 yards on 13 carries and didn’t see a single target. He gets another tough defensive matchup this week. The 49ers rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest running back points per game. His role also could look slightly different this week with the potential return of Damien Williams from IR. I’d look for options with more upside this week.
RB Jaylen Warren. PIT (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Warren has been getting buzz as a hot waiver name this week, but I wouldn’t plug him into lineups against the Bucs. Najee Harris’ Lisfranc injury from the preseason seems to still be lingering. He hasn’t looked like himself in recent weeks. It would probably behoove the Steelers to give Harris a game or two off to get right, but the more likely outcome is that they’ll just reduce his weekly workload and give more of it to Warren. Warren has shown more burst and looked better than Harris in the last couple games, but a split workload doesn’t make him a good option this week against a Tampa defense that allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 6: @GB): Don’t be afraid to play Wilson this week if you must, but the change to Zach Wilson at QB has been a problem for the rookie. The Jets aren’t throwing as much with Zach back under center, so Wilson is seeing fewer targets, but what’s even more troubling is that he’s seeing shorter targets. Wilson earned 11 targets per game in Joe Flacco’s three starts with an aDOT of 9.8 yards. In two games with Zach Wilson, Garrett has earned 10 total targets with an aDOT of 6.5 yards. There’s reason for optimism against the Packers. The Jets should be forced to throw a little more as a 7-point underdog, and Green Bay has been more vulnerable to slot receivers than guys on the perimeter. They’ve allowed the 4th-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers lined up out wide and the 12th-most to receivers lined up in the slot per Sports Info Solutions. Wilson is the Jets’ primary slot receiver. There’s upside here, but I’d view Garrett as more of a WR4 than a WR3 this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. TB): I talked last week about how the switch to Kenny Pickett at QB in Pittsburgh could be a boost for Pickens, and it was nice to see that come to fruition as Pickens went for 6-83 on 8 targets in Buffalo, but I’m not sure I’d go back to the well this week. Game script should be negative, and the Steelers should be throwing often, but the Bucs present a much stiffer test at CB than the Bills did. Buffalo has been making do with inexperienced corners by playing a lot of zone defense and defending as a team. The Bucs have proven studs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean starting at corner. They’ve allowed fewer than 8 points per game to receivers lined up on the perimeter per Sports Info Solutions, and Pickens has been lined up in the slot on less than 8% of his snaps this year. Volume can still get Pickens to a useful day against the Bucs, but it could be tougher sledding this week than it was against the Bills and Jets for the rookie.
WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 6: @KC): Shakir was impressive in his first extended action of the season, racking up 3-75-1 on 5 targets, but Isaiah McKenzie has cleared the concussion protocol and should assume a full-time slot role this week. McKenzie was splitting the role with Jamison Crowder prior to the injury, but Crowder suffered a broken ankle and will be out indefinitely. There’s a chance Shakir takes some of that slot workload, but I wouldn’t count on him getting enough opportunity to be useful this week.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): Bellinger’s playing time has been steadily rising each week, and he scored his second touchdown of the season in London last weekend, but he still hasn’t topped 4 touches in a game this year and the return of Wan’Dale Robinson could make it harder for Bellinger to earn targets. The Ravens haven’t been great against tight ends, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, but the biggest reason for that is they’ve allowed 3 tight end touchdowns. They’re giving up less than 40 yards per game to the position. You’re likely to be disappointed in Bellinger’s game unless he scores a touchdown, and the Giants’ implied total is below 20 points in this one.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 6: @Pit.): Cam Brate’s injury opened the door for Otton to play a full-time role in week 6, and he earned 7 targets en route to a top-12 PPR finish for the week. Cam Bratehas been practicing in full this week, so Otton will return to his backup role this weekend. You can’t start him in this one.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): Pacheco’s trend of not playing much unless the Chiefs win comfortably continued in week 5. Pacheco now has 11+ carries in both games that Kansas City won by double-digits, and 6 total touches in the other 3 games combined. This game is very unlikely to be a blowout win, so I’d lean against considering Pacheco.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 6: @KC): As expected, Cook got a couple of opportunities late in a blowout last weekend. He managed to post a 24-yard touchdown run in the 2nd half in his best fantasy day of the season so far. To date, more than 70% of Cook’s touches have come in the two games the Bills won by 34+ points. His role will likely grow as the season goes on, but Devin Singletary typically dominates the backfield work in competitive games, and this week’s tilt with the Chiefs should be very competitive. I wouldn’t expect more than a few touches for Cook.
RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 6: @Atl.): Mason has been a non-factor in this offense even with the injuries to Elijah Mitchell and Davis-Price, but Davis-Price in expected to return this week in a good matchup against a Falcons’ defense that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA. Unfortunately for TDP, Jeff Wilson Jr. has been great in his absence and there may not be much of a role to return to. Davis-Price nearly split the workload evenly with Wilson in week 2, but I’d expect much closer to an 80-20 split here.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): It’s coming for Moore, but we’re not there yet. The snaps have increased in each of the last two weeks for the rookie while Mecole Hardman’s playing time heads in the other direction. It’s only a matter of time before he’s operating as Kansas City’s WR3. For now, continue to monitor his role with him on your bench. The Bills rank 6th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Thornton made his debut in week 5 and played a bigger role in his first game back than I anticipated. He had a higher route participation rate than Nelson Agholor or DeVante Parker, but that was because of a blowout win and a hamstring injury to Agholor that sidelined the veteran after just 7 snaps. I’d expect Thornton to operate as the WR4 this week even if Agholor is out. His best hope at fantasy production would be hauling in a deep ball, but the Pats lack a QB who throws the deep ball well.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 6: vs. NYJ): Watson is yet to exceed a 30% route participation rate or 3 touches in any game this season. He did exit in the 3rd quarter of the London game with a hamstring injury, but he had just 1 target and 1 carry by that point of the game. He’s questionable for week 6, and not playing enough to be in your lineups if he’s able to suit up. Update: Watson has been ruled out for week 6.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 6: vs. NE): Bell has totaled just 6 targets in the first 5 games. He remains someone you can’t start until at least the return of Deshaun Watson.
WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Tolbert has now been inactive for 4 of the Cowboys first 5 games, and there’s no reason to think he won’t make it 5 of 6 this week.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 6: @Sea.): It pains me to say that you have to sit McBride in the best possible tight-end matchup. He just isn’t playing enough to be anything more than a touchdown dart throw despite the rosy matchup. The Seahawks have allowed season-high fantasy days to 7 different tight ends in their 5 games – Andrew Beck, Albert Okwuegbunam, Ross Dwelley, Kyle Pitts, TJ Hockenson, Taysom Hill, and Adam Trautman. If giving up over 35 points to TJ Hockenson wasn’t bad enough in week 4, the Seahawks let a tight end throw a TD pass to another tight end in week 5 (Taysom Hill to Trautman). Any tight end who suits up against Seattle is bound to have their best day of the season, but for McBride that could mean 6 PPR points. It’ll be a bonus if he’s on the field for even 30% of the offensive snaps this week.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 6: @NYG): The absence of Rashod Bateman last week didn’t result in a boost in usage or production for Likely. In fact, Likely played his lowest snap share and saw his lowest route participation rate of the season last Sunday. You can’t count on him for anything more than a couple of targets in this game if that.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Woods has been in the 25-30% route participation range in each of the last 3 weeks. He scored 2 touchdowns in week 3, but he’s seen just 2 targets total in the two weeks since. He’s a TD dart throw at best, and the Jaguars haven’t allowed a tight end score yet this season.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Dalton Schultz left after just 10 snaps last week when he aggravated his sprained PCL, but it sounds like he’s expected to play in week 7. Hendershot and Ferguson split the snaps pretty evenly after Schultz’s exit, but neither recorded a single target. Even if Schultz is out this week, neither of these guys would be worth a dart throw against a defense ranking 3rd in pass defense DVOA.
Rookies on Byes in week 6: RB Dameon Pierce, HOU, RB Zamir White, LV, WRs Kyle Philips and Treylon Burks, TEN, TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes & Cheap DFS Options:
QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Thompson was less than inspiring in his NFL debut last weekend, posting just 166 passing yards and two turnovers, but the Dolphins coaching staff saw enough to name him the starter for this weekend without waiting on the statuses of Teddy Bridgewater and TuaTagovailoa, and I like his chances for a bounce back. Thompson will get first-team reps all week in practice, he has explosive weapons, and the Vikings are in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed and passer rating against, and rank 26th in pass defense DVOA. Minnesota has only given up 4 passing touchdowns in the first 5 weeks, but they’ve been vulnerable against the pass. I also like Thompson’s chances to add 20-30 yards with his legs. The Vikings have given up more than 45 rushing yards to both mobile QBs they’ve faced this year (Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields), and Thompson wasn’t afraid to use his legs in college (over 370 yards rushing in 2018 and 2019). Skylar is obviously a risky play this week, but I like his chances to wind up as a mid-range QB2 or better in a matchup that is better than you might think.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 6: @Pit.): White has seen his role behind Leonard Fournette grow in recent weeks. He’s played nearly 40% of the snaps in each of the last two games and had at least 8 opportunities in each (carries + targets combined), and he could see even more this week in a game that has the potential to get out of hand. The Tampa offense has looked more like itself in recent weeks with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans back on the field, and the Steelers will be missing their top 3 cornerbacks and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick in this game. The Steelers won’t have any answers for Tom Brady and that passing game, and that could lead to some garbage time opportunities for White against a middling run defense. There’s a low floor here, but also some nice upside for DFS tournaments.
RB Keontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 6: @Sea.): James Conner and Darrel Williams have both been ruled out for week 6, leaving just Eno Benjamin and Ingram to handle the backfield work. Ingram has been inactive in each of the first 5 weeks of the season, so it’s hard to say how big of a role he’s going to play behind Benjamin, but Eno isn’t going to handle 100% of the workload. The Seahawks rank 24th in run defense DVOA and allow the 5th most RB points per game, so any opportunities against that unit are worth taking note of. Ingram costs the bare minimum on DraftKings - $3,000 in multiple-game contests, and $200 in Showdown contests – and he has a legitimate chance at 8-10 touches against one of the worst running back defenses in the league.
RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong, NE (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Early reports after the weekend are that Damien Harris could miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury suffered on Sunday. Rhamondre Stevenson will step into the clear lead back role while Harris is out, but he isn’t going to play 100% of the snaps. One of these two rookies is going to play a role alongside Stevenson while Damien is out. Both may be worth a stash in the deepest of leagues, but I would prioritize Strong since he’s the back that has been on the active roster for the first 5 weeks. Keep an eye on Damien Harris’ status moving forward, he was listed as a limited participant in practice on Tuesday, but reports were that he only warmed up. He’s already been ruled out for week 6. The Browns have allowed multiple backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in each of the last 2 games, so if you get a sense of which back will serve as the #2 behind Rhamondre, there could be value in showdown DFS contests.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk 6: vs Car.): I mention Kyren here because of the news that Cam Akers is now away from the Rams for personal reasons. Sean McVay referenced “some things we’re working through” when talking about the situation. We obviously don’t have all the information, but if I had to guess, this won’t be just a one-week absence. Kyren is likely to remain on IR through the Rams’ bye next week, but it’s very possible he returns for week 8, and he’s worth a look in really deep leagues. Adam Schefter reported before the season opener that Williams was ticketed for a meaningful role in the Rams’ offense, and if Akers’ absence continues, Williams could step into the RB2 role behind Darrell Henderson when he comes back. I wouldn’t make Kyren a priority stash. He’s a sub-par athlete (9th-percentile speed score and 20th-percentile burst score per Player Profiler), Malcolm Brown is still around to take some touches as well, and the Rams are unlikely to use Williams in the role he’s best suited for. Williams is a receiving back – he caught 77 passes in his last two seasons at Notre Dame - but the Rams don’t throw to the running backs on passing downs. Just two of Matt Stafford’s 52 passing attempts on 3rd or 4th down this year have targeted a running back. The Rams seem to like him, and there’s a clear opportunity for playing time when he comes back, so he’s worth a look as a stash if you’re desperate but temper your expectations.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): Wan’Dale looks to be on track to play for the first time since week 1, and it couldn’t come at a better time for the Giants. New York has been operating with a replacement crew of receivers that rivals the Bears for worst in the league. Their WR1 has been Richie James. Robinson should step in as a valuable safety valve in the slot for Daniel Jones, and the Giants take on a Ravens team this week that has allowed the 2nd-most points per game to receivers lined up in the slot per Sports Info Solutions. It’s hard to bank on Wan’Dale playing a full complement of snaps in his first game back after missing a month, but I like his chances at 6+ targets in this game. He’s a real option as a WR4 in deeper PPR leagues if you’re searching for WR help.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 6: @LAC): Dulcich seems likely to return from IR and make his debut this week, and that may put him in position to be the first tight end to ever play with a perm. Ok, I don’t know if any previous tight ends have had one, but if you don’t know what Dulcich looks like I urge you to google him and feast your eyes on what Andrew Cooper of Fantasy Alarm (@CoopAFiasco on twitter) referred to as “James Franco cosplaying as Weird Al.” Dulcich could step into a big role in his first game against a middling Charger defense. LA allows the 18th-most TE points per game and the Broncos have been operating with Eric Saubert as their clear lead tight end. Dulcich should overtake him immediately, and the schedule gets more favorable in a few weeks. 5 of the first 6 teams the Broncos face after their week 9 bye have allowed more TE points per game than the Chargers. I’d view Dulcich as a volatile TE2 option this week, but there is upside in the coming weeks to be a top-12 tight end.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up a W in week 5. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Just like last couple of weeks with the London games, we have yet another aspect of the NFL schedule starting up this week, this one having a bit more of an effect on a confidence pool– bye weeks!
This can play big in your season long pools. If you have had a solid start and are sitting comfortably towards the top of the standings, you are loving bye weeks as the top numbers aren’t in play! You can’t have 15 and 16 point games where there are only 14 games played in a week!
On the flip side, if you need to make up ground, you need to make sure you hit as many picks as you can in a week.
Lucky for you, you’re reading my picks, so you’re good to go ?
Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
14 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Carolina – This is obviously less about how good the Rams are doing and more about how God-awful the Panthers are doing.
13 – GREEN BAY over New York Jets – The Jets have definitely made progress this season - they’re just not at a “win at Lambeau” level yet.
12 – San Francisco over ATLANTA – Jimmy G has the 9ers on a roll that dwindling Falcons can’t keep up with.
11 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Denver – Ah I remember a time not too long ago when everyone laughed at me and brushed me off when I said trading for Russell Wilson was a huge mistake for the Broncos
10 – Cincinnati over NEW ORLEANS – Look for this to be a game where the Bengals start to make their 2022 comeback
9 – SEATTLE over Arizona – The Cardinals have to be counting the seconds at this point for DeAndre Hopkins to come back.
8 – CLEVELAND over New England – Continuously handing the ball to Nick Chubb seems like it would be a solid offensive strategy.
7 – INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville – The Jags have the Colts number in Jacksonville…in Indy…not so much.
6 – Tampa Bay over PITTSBURGH – How lucky are the Bucs that they are in the NFC South? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that even with the slow start, THE BUCS WILL CLINCH THE NFC SOUTH BY WEEK 12
5 – Minnesota over MIAMI – It would be a fun story for Skylar Thompson to come in and beat the Vikings…just won’t happen
4 – Dallas over PHILADELPHIA – …still not sold on the Eagles…
3 – Buffalo over KANSAS CITY – I’ve decided to bite my tongue regarding my thoughts on the city of Kansas City…
2 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Baltimore – Are…are the Giants for real?
1 – CHICAGO over Washington – Was going to have a Commanders win here until hearing that Carson Wentz’s arm isn’t 100%
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- Written by David Biggs
Injuries continue to plague opportunity-rich players. This week a fractured tibia will prevent Rashaad Penny from progressing any further as a fantasy piece on rosters, but a rising star reveals itself in Kenneth Walker, whose 8 carries for 88 yards and a TD were a career best for the rookie RB. In Seattle we have also seen Geno Smith resurrect his career under center as a Seahawk, and the Vikings offense look like it could be a contender in the NFC with Cousins at the helm. What lies in store for us around the corner in Week 6? I hesitate to even imagine, but am looking forward to it!
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 6 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
The NFL season is in full swing. There have already been two games in London, bye weeks are kicking in, and Thursday Night Football is as bad as we all make fun of it for being. Meanwhile, House of the Dragon is nearing its peak of the season. We’ve had weddings, funerals, dragons, and the Greens fighting the Blacks. In that spirit, here are some stats from Week 5 inspired by my favorite show on TV right now.
Fire
125 Points in the Last Two Weeks
Like a couple of random soldiers in the Stepstones, Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs are on fire. The two running backs have combined for 125.6 points over the last two weeks. Jacobs has 368 yards from scrimmage over that span, giving him 619 on the season, good for third in the league – ahead of all wide receivers. It took Jacobs until week 13 to reach that mark last year. This season, the Raiders are not particularly dominant on offense – just 8th overall in points and 10th or lower in most offensive categories. Credit for these performances lies with Jacobs, who is averaging a career-high 5.4 Y/A and has caught 17 of his 18 targets. Ekeler has 5 touchdowns in the last 2 games after not finding the end zone in the first 3 games. He started the season with 32.4 points over weeks 1 through 3, then averaged 32.9 points per game in the next two. He finds himself as the RB2 on the season now. In week 5 @ Cleveland, Ekeler posted his career high in rushing yards, 173, blowing away his previous career high of 117. It’s only his third time posting 100+ rushing yards in a game. Ekeler has gotten going, and so have the Chargers, putting up 30 or more in the last 2 games. Ekeler is paying off his very high overall ADP3 going into the season.
Ice
5:7 TD to INT Ratio
After winning the Super Bowl last year, Matthew Stafford just can’t find fantasy success this season. He’s throwing INTs at a rate he hasn’t seen since his rookie year (though it can be noted that he led the league in INTs last year). This season he leads the league in sacks and has his worst QB rating since 2012. The Rams are now the most imbalanced offense in the league, passing on 66.7% of their plays. As we learned last week, this is not a recipe for success. Stafford is just the QB23 on the season, after being drafted as the QB12 coming off a season where he averaged 20.4 points per game. Stafford has only one game over 12 points this season and is coming in behind players like Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota, who are not even sniffing the chance at being rostered in single QB leagues. Stafford and the Rams are cold as ice, and as long as they keep putting the 29th-ranked offense out on the field, you can go ahead and just send him to the wall.
Green
50 Yards Per Reception
Double green bonus points here. Not only is Breece Hall green – as in, he’s a rookie. He also plays for Gang Green. Hall had his breakout game this week, making his dramatic entrance in green, if you will. He scored 26.7 fantasy points as the Jets demolished the Dolphins, 40-17. Hall had 197 yards from scrimmage, featuring 2 catches for 100 yards. Hall’s 79-yard reception (an early leader for the longest non-scoring play of the season) to close out the first quarter kept him from an even bigger game. Being tackled at the 1 is never fun, and then Michael Carter came in to vulture his touchdown. Hall is now the RB10 on the season and is trending up over the last 3 games – something we love to see here. Another green player on Gang Green – Tyler Conklin, came up totally empty on Sunday, though I suspect that is more of a bump in the road, rather than an omen of things to come.
Black
3 Games with 2+ Passing TDs in a Row
Fitting (or forcing) our Game of Thrones/House of the Dragon theme, we’ll have a vet represent the black side. Geno Smith is easily playing the best football of his career, and it only took him 8 seasons to get there. Smith is like Daemon, just leaning against the wall smirking, biding his time. Daring someone to start him again. Smith has never had consecutive games with 2+ passing TDs until this year. Over the last 3 games, Smith has 2, 2, and 3 passing scores on his way to 9 on the season. His previous career high is 12, and that’s for a full 16-game season. Smith is leading the league in completion percentage, and perhaps even more unexpectedly, QB rating. He’s the QB7 on the season, and is still only rostered in 51% of Fleaflicker leagues. What’s going on guys? He’s doing better than Brady, Herbert, Rodgers, Stafford, and Wentz, though only barely on that last one. OK, I’ll grant you some things are just statistical oddities. Regardless, Geno Smith is playing very well, and the Seahawks would probably have a more impressive record if it wasn’t for them giving up the 2nd most points in the league. This journeyman, as they say, has found the fountain of youth in the pacific northwest.
The Stink Eye
25 Yards, 4 Touchdowns
Travis Kelce earns a major stink eye this week. Like Aemond Targaryen, he just hung back all night and made the most of his modest contributions. Kelce’s 7 catches went for just an average of just over 3.5 yards each. Discarding one game where he had one reception, this game featured both his lowest yards per catch of his career, and the most touchdowns of his career. Four touchdowns double his previous career high of two. Kelce is somehow turning up the fantasy juice with the exit of Tyreek Hill. He’s leading the league in receiving TDs, he’s near his career high in receptions per game, and does have a career-high catch rate of 78.6%. As the TE1 on the season, he’s absolutely dominating the field. He’s 20 points ahead of Mark Andrews at TE2, and nearly 40 points ahead of Taysom Hill, even with his huge breakout in Week 5.
- Details
- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Can you believe we’re already a month into the season? Time flies when you’re watching the Broncos in prime time every week. The first month of the season has been a messy one dominated by sloppy offensive football, injuries, and the Philadelphia Eagles. We’ve seen the ascension of several breakout rookies so far – Chris Olave, Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce, Romeo Doubs, Garrett Wilson – but there could be even more on the horizon. Several injured rookies are set to make their debuts in the next week or two. Bailey Zappe & Kenny Pickett will make their first starts this week. Tyquan Thornton and Brian Robinson Jr. are off IR and ready to take the field, and Greg Dulcich could be back next week.
The list of relevant rookies could be growing, and I’ll be here to break it down each week and help you sift through what to do with these players in your lineups. This week we’re talking more about the tight end position than usual as 4 rookies at the position had multiple catches last week. There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s get to it.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into week 5…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 5: vs. Sea.): Olave has been on an absolute roll in the last 3 weeks earning at least a 25% target share and 40% air yardage share in each week, and turned in finishes of WR33, WR6, and WR15 in those games. He wasn’t slowed down by Andy Dalton stepping in at QB in week 4, and with Michael Thomas ruled out for week 5 the rookie should keep operating as the clear WR1 for New Orleans. The Seahawks rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and have been especially susceptible to big pass plays, something we know the Saints look for with Olave. The Seahawks have allowed at least one completion of 30+ yards each week and have given up 2 of the five longest pass plays of the season thus far. Start Olave with confidence.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 5: @TB): London had a down game in week 4, falling short of 12 PPR points for the first time last Sunday, but he topped a 30% target share for the 3rd straight game and a 30% air yardage share for the 4th straight game. His fantasy day fell victim to Arthur Smith deciding to “run the piss out of the ball” in the 2nd half. Tampa Bay is a tough matchup for the rookie. The Bucs rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game. Negative game script should still be enough to get London back on track. Atlanta has trailed by more than 4 points in just one game this year, and London was targeted 12 times in that game. The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs this week. Volume should give London a WR3 floor in this one, especially with Kyle Pitts ruled out.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): The switch to Zach Wilson at QB did nothing to derail the red-hot start to the season for Hall. Breece posted his 3rd-straight top-15 PPR finish and continued to establish himself as the clear RB1 in this backfield. He played 66% of the offensive snaps, handled 65% of the rushing attempts, and was in a route for 61% of Wilson’s dropbacks. The Jets threw the ball less with Wilson back – Flacco averaged 51.7 attempts per game, Wilson was at 36 in his debut – but no matter how the Jets choose to attack Hall is going to be heavily involved. The Dolphins have limited opposing running back production so far. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4th in run defense DVOA, but I expect volume to keep Breece in the RB2 range this week. His usage would make him a weekly RB1 if he played in a good offense.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 5: @Jax.): I don’t know that I’d be able to convince you to sit Pierce if I tried after he put up 25.9 PPR points and finished as the RB5 for the week last weekend, especially considering that he caught 6 passes in the process. The biggest knock on Pierce has been his lack of passing game usage (he totaled 4 targets in the first 3 weeks), and it appears he may be on track to overcoming that. I’d still advise a little caution before going all-in on Pierce. Rex Burkhead was still on the field on almost all the long down & distance snaps and 2-minute offense snaps in week 4, and the Texans are going to continue to be underdogs just about every week. Pierce’s 6 receptions may be a mirage, and he wasn’t very efficient with those catches (8 receiving yards). Pierce benefitted from Houston not abandoning the run when they fell behind against the Chargers, but the Chargers are MUCH easier to attack on the ground than through the air. There will be weeks where they fall behind against teams that are tougher to run against and they abandon it. The Jaguars have allowed the 8th-most RB points per game, so Pierce is still a solid option this week, but be aware that Jacksonville has allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards and ranks 12th in run defense DVOA. I wouldn’t start Pierce over any of your true studs, but he’s certainly still a top-24 option this week.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): On the surface, Wilson’s week 4 stat line was pretty disappointing. Just 2 catches for 41 yards on 6 targets. Those were season lows across the board, and they coincided with the return of starting QB Zach Wilson. If you’ve been starting Garrett Wilson all year, you’re probably pretty concerned that Zach Wilson could be a problem for him, but the underlying numbers give me reasons for optimism. Week 4 was the first time all season that Wilson had a higher route participation rate than Corey Davis, and his 6 targets tied for the team lead. Week 4 was also the first time this year the Jets held a lead at any point prior to the last 30 seconds of a game. The lower passing volume wasn’t just because of the QB change. It was because the game script was more positive. Those bigger pass volume games will still happen with Zach at QB. Zach’s inefficiency last week wasn’t ideal, but I’d expect improvement there as well as he gets more comfortable. For this week’s matchup, the Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-most WR points per game, and the Jets are 3.5-point underdogs. The offense should be throwing, and Garrett Wilson has WR2 upside and has a 6-target floor.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): After back-to-back weeks of a 95% route participation rate, I’m ready to declare Doubs at least the WR2 on this football team. He’s earned 8 targets and found the end zone in each of those two games as well, but he also fumbled in each game and dropped what would’ve been a game-winning TD late in regulation last weekend. The Packers still eventually won the game. I wouldn’t get too hung up on the miscues after Green Bay didn’t bench him after them. This offense still runs through the running backs, but Doubs should continue to see at least 6-8 weekly targets while Sammy Watkins is on IR, and probably beyond that. The Giants have allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, but they rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA. The Packers should have success throwing the ball, and Doubs is a solid WR3 option again this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): Pickens may be the biggest beneficiary of the Steelers QB switch from Mitch Trubisky to Kenny Pickett. Pickens has been a full-time player all year, but he and Trubisky had struggled to forge much of a connection. The targets were finally coming around in weeks 3 & 4, but the pair connected just 5 times for 70 yards on 11 targets in those 2 games, with 3 of those catches going for 5 yards or fewer. Enter Kenny Pickett in the second half Sunday. Pickett delivered the exact same target share to Pickens that Trubisky did in that game (4 targets on 13 pass attempts), but all 4 of Pickett’s attempts were connections. They totaled 71 yards, and only 1 of the 4 completions went for fewer than 10 yards. Pickett could be the QB that unlocks Pickens. Diontae Johnson is still the #1 receiver here, and the Bills allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game, but I think there is serious upside for the rookie on Sunday. The Bills are missing safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Christian Benford for this game, and their two perimeter CB starters will be rookie Kaiir Elam and 2nd-year pro Dane Jackson. Neither player represents a matchup that you should be scared of. Pickens has a low floor, but his upside makes him a viable WR3/4 option for this game. At the very least, he shouldn’t be available on your league’s waiver wire.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 5: @TB): Falcons’ starting RB Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on IR this week, and Allgeier is the next man up in this backfield, but this is a brutal matchup and Allgeier isn’t the only other back on this team. The Bucs have allowed the 3rd-fewest RB points per game this season, and only CEH has scored 7+ fantasy points against them at the position on the year. Allgeier carried 10 times last week with C-Patt missing most of the 2nd half, and Caleb Huntley matched those 10 carries in that game. Avery Williams has also had a role on passing downs, and Damien Williams could return from IR in the next couple weeks. That’s a lot of names that could be involved in this offense. This likely remains enough of a committee in Cordarrelle’s absence that Allgeier should only be trusted in plus matchups, and this week’s matchup is not a good one.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): White set season-highs in snap share and targets in week 4 as the Bucs played from behind all night against the Chiefs last Sunday. It’s an open question whether that’s a sign of things to come or was simply a matter of game flow. If his role is indeed growing, the Falcons represent a great matchup since they rank 26th in run defense DVOA, but White’s easiest path to production is through receiving work, and Atlanta does a good job of limiting that. The Falcons have allowed the 8th-fewest receptions and 5th-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs. For White to have a productive game in week 5, he’s going to need garbage time carries. That’s possible with the Bucs favored by 10 points, but it’s always hard to bank on that for a fantasy lineup.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Through the season’s first 4 weeks, we’ve seen Pacheco reach 11 carries and 60+ rushing yards twice now, but both of those were games where the Chiefs played from comfortably ahead all day. Only 8 of Pacheco’s 28 carries for the season have come in situations where Kansas City wasn’t ahead by double-digits. Of course, there’s a reasonable chance the Chiefs spend considerable time this week ahead by multiple scores. They’re 7-point favorites against the Raiders. Your confidence in whether Pacheco sees 10+ touches should be based on your confidence that KC plays from ahead. Even if he gets that kind of workload, 10-12 carries against a middling run defense like the Raiders (16th in run defense DVOA) makes him just a fringe RB3 at best. If you’re in leagues that count return yardage, you may be excited by Pacheco’s 90+ kick return yards each of the last two weeks, but more than 70% of kickoffs by Raiders’ kicker Daniel Carlson this season have resulted in touchbacks.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Robinson is in line to return in week 5 after being shot twice in the preseason. He was slated to be the starter before landing on the non-football injury list, and he should immediately be part of the running back rotation, but it remains to be seen how big of a role he’ll play in his debut. It’s been reported that he’ll be on a pitch count, and the Titans are much better at defending the run than the pass. The Titans allow the 13th-fewest RB points per game and rank 8th in run defense DVOA. I’d wait and see how Robinson looks before getting him into lineups.
RB Kenneth Walker III (Wk. 5: @NO): Walker saw an uptick in usage last Sunday with Travis Homer on IR, but he’s still a distant second to Rashaad Penny on the depth chart. KW3 is yet to see 10+ touches in any game this year, and the Saints have allowed the 6th-fewest running back points per game. This isn’t a matchup where you should be hoping for production on limited touches for Walker.
WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Philips returned from injury last week but was on the field for just two offensive snaps. He could have a big opportunity on Sunday with teammate Treylon Burks sidelined by a turf toe injury. Phillips led the team with 9 targets and 66 receiving yards as the primary slot receiver in week 1 before getting hurt, and the Commanders have allowed the 2nd-most PPR points to slot receivers per Sports Info Solutions. The big question is will he go back to that same role this week with Burks out? I’m not convinced he will yet.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): Watson made his first trip into the end zone last week on a designed run play, but his route participation rate continued to trend in the wrong direction, He was in a route for just 18% of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks. Green Bay has made a point to get the ball into Watson’s hands when he’s on the field, but he just isn’t getting onto the field enough to be in lineups. He hasn’t touched the ball more than 3 times in a game this season.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Bellinger has some sneaky upside this week with the Giants running with a skeleton crew at wide receiver. His playing time remains too low (he’s yet to reach 50% route participation this season), but he’s seen his target per route run and overall target share increase each and every week. He’s a good bet for 5+ targets this week in London, but I wouldn’t bet on big production against a Green Bay defense that ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-fewest tight end points per game.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): The Steelers had finally seen enough of Mitch Trubisky in week 4 after the team failed to get into the red zone and scored just 6 first half points against the lowly New York Jets. They turned to Pickett for the second half, and the final stats were wild. The Rookie completed 10-of-13 passes for 120 yards and 3 interceptions, including one on his first career attempt. Every one of his passes was caught by someone, but far too many were caught by the opponent. Despite the turnovers, Pickett did have success moving the ball and tallied 2 rushing TDs and gave the Steelers a chance to win the game. Pittsburgh would be wise to let him keep playing, but the matchup could not be worse for week 5. Through 4 games the Bills have faced the following lineup of QBs - Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Tua, and Lamar Jackson – and allowed fewer fantasy points per game to them than Justin Fields & Mitch Trubisky have averaged this season. Good QBs are dicey options against this defense. A rookie making his first career start could have a nightmarish day.
QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 5: @NYJ): Tua Tagovailoa will sit out this week with a concussion, but it’ll be Teddy Bridgewater who gets the start, not Thompson. Skylar is one injury away from getting playing time against a bad defense, but if things go as planned for Miami, Thompson won’t take a snap.
RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 5: @Min.): Ebner continues to play a complementary role to Khalil Herbert with David Montgomery sidelined. It’s just not a big enough role for him to have fantasy relevance given how little the Bears throw the ball. Minnesota is a plus matchup for running backs, coughing up the 5th-most points per game to the position, but Ebner has yet to reach 30 scrimmage yards in a game, and anything over that mark against the Vikings should be considered a bonus.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): Different week, same story for Warren. He’s purely a handcuff to Najee and doesn’t really have standalone value for now, especially against a daunting Buffalo defense in a game where the Steelers are 2-touchdown underdogs.
RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 5: @Car.): Tyrion Davis-Price remains out this week, and Mason has played just 5 offensive snaps in the last two weeks. This backfield belongs to Jeff Wilson Jr. at least until TDP returns with Deebo Samuel operating as the change-of-pace back.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): We finally saw Kansas City start to make good on promises to get Skyy Moore involved in the offense last weekend, as the rookie had his highest route participation (25%) and target total (4) of the season. Those numbers should continue to climb as the season goes on since MVS and Mecole Hardman have predictably underwhelmed, but his playing time isn’t quite to a level where you can consider him for lineups.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): The Browns still don’t throw the ball enough to support more than a couple pass catchers, and Bell remains too far down the depth chart to be one of those. He may need an injury ahead of him to have any value before Deshaun Watson returns.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 5: @Min.): Jones was active for the first time in week 4, and he played zero offensive snaps. There’s nothing here for now.
WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 5: @LAR): With Michael Gallup back from IR it’s an open question when Tolbert will be active for a game again. He’s been inactive for 3 of the first 4 contests, and Gallup’s return makes it even harder for the rookie to carve out a role.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Wan’Dale is getting closer to returning to the lineup and having some sleeper value, but he’s trending toward being inactive again in week 5. The Giants desperately need WR help right now, but Robinson doesn’t look likely to deliver that help this week. He has a chance to be a PPR maven once he’s able to get back on the field.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): If you missed the news, Dotson is expected to be out a week or two with a hamstring injury. This would be a great matchup for the rookie if he were to play, but it’s a moot point with him ruled out.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Like Dotson on the other side of this matchup, Burks will be sidelined for week 5 after being carted off with a turf toe injury last weekend. He was originally listed as doubtful, and was moved to IR later in the week.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McBride is worth monitoring in the coming weeks after he finally saw his first passing game action in week 4. He played a season-high 42% of the offensive snaps and pulled in 3 catches on 3 targets for 24 yards as the Cardinals used 2 tight end sets more often than they had in previous weeks. It’s a promising development, but I wouldn’t plug him into any lineups just yet. The Eagles are in the top-12 at limiting TE points and rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA. If McBride’s usage this week is similar or better to what we saw in week 4, he’s going to be a sneaky option against the Seahawks in week 6. Seattle allows the most TE points per game. Things will get dicey for his usage again after week 6 when DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Okonkwo had a surprising 3-38-1 line last weekend against the Colts after seeing just 1 target in the first 3 weeks, but don’t be fooled into thinking you can plug him into lineups if you’re desperate. Okonkwo was still in a route on fewer than 20% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks in that game and was on the field for just 13 offensive snaps. Maybe that role grows in the coming weeks (especially now that Treylon Burks is on IR), but you’re just praying for a TD if you plug the rookie into any lineups this week. The Commanders have allowed just 1 tight end score in the first 4 weeks.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 5: @LAR): With Dalton Schultz back in action Sunday, the rookie duo combined for 21 offensive snaps and just one target in week 4. Move along.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): Zippin’ Bailey Zappe became the first rookie QB to throw a touchdown pass this season, and he’s in line for his first career start this week with Mac Jones still battling an ankle sprain and Brian Hoyer on IR with a concussion. There is no softer landing spot he could draw for that first start than facing the Detroit Lions. The Lions have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank an abysmal 28th in pass defense DVOA. Zappe’s throws look like they have less zip on them than you see from some high school QBs, but he was highly efficient at Western Kentucky last year, throwing for nearly 6,000 yards and 62 TDs in 14 games. Zappe has the upside to be a high-end QB2 this week.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Cook hasn’t seen the field or the ball much in the last two weeks, but that could change against the Steelers on Sunday. The Bills are two-touchdown favorites in this game, and the last time they won in a blowout Cook led the backfield with 11 touches and 53 scrimmage yards. Most of those touches came in the 4th quarter in garbage time, but that same kind of garbage time might exist in this game. Cook could see additional passing game work early on as well. Gabe Davis is playing through an ankle injury, and both slot receivers could be in week 5. Jamison Crowder broke his ankle and Isaiah McKenzie suffered a concussion last Sunday. Crowder is out indefinitely, and McKenzie is questionable. Tight end Dawson Knox has also been ruled out for this game. If McKenzie sits, there will be some receiving opportunities up for grabs, some of which could go to Cook. It’s impossible to rely on garbage time production in season-long leagues but Cook costs just $1,400 in DraftKings Showdown contests.
WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned above with James Cook, the Bills could be missing both of their top-2 slot receivers and their tight end on Sunday against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 4th-most PPR points to slot receivers this year per Sports Info Solutions. Shakir would likely be the guy who steps into the slot role if McKenzie is out. Crowder and McKenzie have averaged a combined 8.5 targets per game. Shakir has a realistic shot at 5-6 targets in this one, and there is value in that in a plus matchup with Josh Allen throwing him the ball.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): In deeper leagues there’s a chance Thornton was forgotten about after he suffered a broken collarbone in the preseason. He’s worth a stash in those leagues if he’s still available. Thornton made a speedier than expected recovery from the injury and has been activated from IR ahead of week 5. It’s hard to trust a Bill Belichick drafted wide receiver, but Thornton ran a blazing 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine and has serious big play upside. I’d expect him to be eased in after missing so much time, but he’s worth picking up in deeper leagues. No one beyond Jakobi Meyers has proven to be irreplaceable in this WR group.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Likely is coming off a zero-target game in week 4, but his playing time has remained fairly steady this season (20-26 snaps played each game) and the Ravens will be without Rashod Bateman this week. With Bateman out, Likely should be the 3rd option in the passing game behind Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay. The Bengals are a middling TE defense (19th-most points allowed per game to TEs), but there is an opportunity for Likely to have his best game to-date as a pro.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Cam Brate has been ruled out with a concussion, and Otton is in line to start in his place against the Falcons, who allow the 3rd-most TE points per game. Otton garnered 4 targets on Sunday night against the Chiefs with Brate banged up. Don’t get too carried away here. There are game script concerns that could limit overall passing volume. Tom Brady has averaged 47 passing attempts in Tampa’s two losses this season and 30.5 attempts in their wins. Otton could be in line for 4+ catches if this game stays competitive.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up a W in week 5. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
- Details
- Written by David Biggs
Time to cut down your rosters already, folks. Underperformers like Allen Robinson should only get so many chances before you owe it to yourself and your fantasy team to go pick up some trending players before they end up on another roster putting up points against you! Take a look at all of the suggested cuts below along with their roster % in Fleaflicker leagues and make your own decisions, but all of these guys deserve to be left on the cutting floor in 10 and 12 team leagues in my opinion!
QB:
Justin Fields (67% rostered in Fleaflicker)
The question that Bears fans (and fantasy footballers looking for one more rushing QB to add to the roster) were all asking at the beginning of the season was whether or not Matt Nagy’s departure and new OC Luke Getsy’s play calling could fashion Fields into an every week start. Well, looks like the answer is a resounding ‘no’. True, Fields’ passing completions have trended up from 7, to 8, to 11 over the past 3 weeks, but that’s way too slow moving of a vehicle to matter especially considering that the Bears haven’t put up a passing TD on the offense since Week 1. At this point it’s just not going to happen this year and his rushing ability does not make up for it. Don’t hold on to the #31 QB overall, sheesh.
Ryan Tannehill (66% rostered)
Jameis Winston (67%)
Winston was out last week (multiple back fractures) and may still be held out for a couple more games with Andy Dalton’s serviceable backup abilities on display while filling in. But should we wait on Winston, keeping him rostered on the bench? Through his 3 starts this year he was the QB15, putting up an average of 16.31 points per game. Not enough in my opinion to take up an extra roster spot in 1 QB leagues. He should have been dropped last week, but there’s still time to cut your losses and use that extra spot for a speculative pickup or a trending waiver pickup at QB like Geno Smith (45%) or Kenny Pickett (43%). You’re likely already too late for someone like Jared Goff - gotta catch ‘em early on the upswing.
Marcus Mariota (40%)
RB:
Darrel Williams (36%)
James Cook (65%)
Cook is certainly some part of the future of the Bills’ running game, that’s for sure. And Devin Singletary historically has never shouldered the whole offensive load, settling in at between 150-190 rushes since being drafted by the Bills in 2019. However, Singletary is still the go-to guy in the backfield, trending up to an 88-percent snap share last week against the Ravens, most of Cook’s carries have come at the end of the game when the Bills have put away the contest, and Zach Moss is still the RB2 in Buffalo. In fact, Cook has only put up more than 1 carry in week 2 against the Titans blowout, ending 41-7. Cut him.
Mark Ingram (46%)
Rex Burkhead (36%)
WR:
Greg Dortch (37%)
Skyy Moore (57%)
Devante Parker (58%)
Marquez Valdez-Scantling (65%)
Chase Claypool (76%)
Allen Robinson (84%)
We all remember the (recently retired) Blake Bortles to Allen Robinson connection in 2015 - and Robinson also played very well for the Bears in 2019 and 2020 - but the impending renaissance of Robinson together with the best QB he’s ever had (Stafford) on the Rams has just not worked out. Through 4 games so far this season, Robinson is the WR72 on the season, averaging only 5 fantasy points per game, and Stafford can only throw to Kupp or Higbee. That’s all folks. Could it get better? Sure. But not immediately, and those teams that sit on players waiting for them to perform rather than snagging the trending guys that are movin’ on up are generally the teams that don’t make it to the playoffs. Don’t be that team.
Julio Jones (65%)
TE:
Mike Gesicki (70%)
So many things are going wrong in Miami lately. And maybe we’ll see Tua back in a few weeks and the offense continue to develop and sparkle like it did earlier this season. Gesicki had a great game in week 2, putting up 4 for 41 and a TD but has only been able to put up a combined 30 yards total over the rest of the season. His snap count through those other matches has also been less than 50%. Playcalling has definitely centered on Hill and Waddle, and that is not likely to change since the Dolphins are 3-1. Aside from a few top guys, the TE position has always been a scramble to pick up and play matchups - go back to that game, Gesicki owners. Good luck!
Hunter Henry (65%)
Cole Kmet (60%)
- Details
- Written by Tad Bukowski
As we head into week 5, we head into our second week of the International Series. This week we are sending the Giants and Packers over to London.
This, like last week, means that our Sunday is getting an early start. So if you are like me and wait until Sunday morning to do your final fantasy/confidence tweaking, remember to set your alarm!
Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – Brady has been losing…on and off the field…and I’m sure will be looking to take that aggression out on the Falcons.
15 – GREEN BAY over New York Giants (in London) –If the Packers lose this one, Rodgers might hide the passports of a few of his receivers.
14 – JACKSONVILLE over Houston – I really wanted to put the Jags on the 16 point line…just to say that I did it once in my life! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is THE JAGUARS WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH.
13 – BUFFALO over Pittsburgh – After 1 ½ games of questions its safe the say the Bills are back. Look for them to dominate this one.
12 – MINNESOTA over Chicago – The Bears just won’t be able to keep up with the Vikings offensive weapons.
11 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Dallas – Simply put, the Rams need this one.
10 – San Francisco over CAROLINA – At this point the Panthers would be better just playing with 10 guys on offense with no QB.
9 – Tennessee over WASHINGTON – Wow there are a lot of boring matchups this week!
8 – NEW ORLEANS over Seattle – Wow there are a lot of boring matchups this week!
7 – Los Angeles Chargers over CLEVELAND – Wow there are a lot…ok, you get it.
6 – BALTIMORE over Cincinnati – At least our Sunday should end with an exciting matchup from two teams that will be battling for the division this year.
5 – DENVER over Indianapolis – The Colts would have had a chance if Taylor was playing.
4 – KANSAS CITY over Las Vegas – I’m sure most think the Chiefs should be higher (understandably so) but the Raiders have had some luck in KC.
3 – Detroit over NEW ENGLAND – Picking the Lions to win…on the road…feels weird.
2 – NEW YORK JETS over Miami – Yes it’s the Jets, but it’s kind of hard to have confidence in the Dolphins right now, isn’t it?
1 – ARIZONA over Philadelphia – I’m not sold on the Eagles yet.
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- Written by Jason Evans
The secret to a good offense is balance. But what rings true in the NFL is not always true for fantasy football. Sometimes a team with a huge imbalance can be very helpful for fantasy - or at least tell us what we should be avoiding. Let’s have a look at teams who are on both sides of the run/pass balance sheet. First up is the team that is running the ball far, far more than any other team in the league.
Chicago Bears - Run 67%, Pass 33% - The Bears are tied for the fewest plays per game in the league, so it’s not as if this offensive imbalance can be exploited all that much. What we do know for sure are two things. One, that this can’t last forever. Eventually, they will have to throw the ball. The Bears run the ball 10% more than the next highest team on the run-heavy side. That’s just absurd. Fields has only one game with double-digit completions, and that tops out at 11. He’s bound to throw the ball more, eventually. Until then, he’s a sit in all formats. Along with any pass catcher on the Bears.
Justin Fields has the same number of rushes and completions this season. The Bears are running the ball this much because their offense is basically anemic. The second thing we know is that there is only one fantasy player worth starting on the Bears, Khalil Herbert. The silver lining we can take away from the analysis of this imbalance is, I suppose, that we can feel confident in starting a backup RB while David Montgomery is out. When he comes back, it’s all going to be thrown into chaos again.
General Analysis - Though it’s not a hard rule, it can generally be interpreted that running the ball too much in this league is a sign of a bad offense. Only 3 of the teams that run the ball more than 50% of the time are in the top 10 of scoring. In the NFL, you need to have a good run game to be good, but you need to be good enough to not have to use it that often. The most balanced team - the one closest to a 50/50 split - is the Tennessee Titans (50.7% run/49.3% pass), and there are only 6 teams that run the ball more than they do. This is clearly a passing league.
Let’s look at the best offense in the league for a moment. The Detroit Lions have scored 140 points in 4 games, and are right smack in the middle of the pack when it comes to run/pass. That doesn’t mean they are 50/50 - they are actually 42.4% run and 57.6% pass. They just have found the best balance that works in today’s NFL. They are 16th in run% and 17th in pass%. The second-best offense in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, are just two spots away from the Lions, leaning towards the pass. Both teams have found the sweet spot of the run-to-pass ratio that is keeping offenses honest and keeping their teams scoring points - the only two in the league to be averaging over 30 points per game.
New York Jets - Run 30.8%, Pass 69.2% - Now we look to the Jets, the team with the biggest imbalance in the league. The Jets throw the ball 4% more than any other team. Despite this imbalance, they are in much better shape than the Bears. The Jets are in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring points (18th), and actually have the 8th most yards from scrimmage in the league. Even though they’re imbalanced, they are still moving the ball a lot since their imbalance comes due to the pass, instead of the run. Passing plays just rack up more stats and that’s a fact. The Jets, with their 5.5 NY/A (net yards gained per pass attempt) are only 24th in the league. It’s still higher than the Bears 5.2 Y/A running the ball, which is a shiny 4th in the league!
Now that we’ve established that passing the ball is intrinsically more valuable than running the ball, even when you are at either extreme, what fantasy insight can we glean on this Jets team? Well, they do have tons of completions - the second-highest number of receptions (tied for 3rd in the league), so there’s lots of value in PPR formats. Unfortunately, they do spread the ball around a ton. Already, 6 players have at least 15 receptions through 4 games. Their leading pass catcher, Tyler Conklin, has 21 catches on the season and is tied for 21st in receptions - I do love fun coincidences like that one. The Jets like to spread it around so much, they even have 4 players who have thrown pass completions already this season.
Perhaps if the Jets had fewer offensive players to choose from, they would have one or two stand out in fantasy. As it stands, the Jets only have one player who is in the top 10 of points at his position, Tyler Conklin, currently the TE10. The other high water marks are Breece Hall (RB) and Garrett Wilson (WR), both at 19 of their respective positions. I believe that perhaps the most accurate conclusion we can draw from our two examples thus far is that it’s not a good idea to have fantasy players from any team on either extreme of the run/pass split. At least the Jets are running 70 plays per game and have fantasy value based on their expected volume alone, though there are no studs to be seen.
Buffalo Bills - Run 36.3%, Pass 63.7% - Finally, let us take a look at an offense that is unbalanced AND performing well. The Bills are 5th in the league in terms of total points with 114, and they are 6th when it comes to being a pass-heavy offense. The Bills are obviously a good, talented team, whereas the previous two are not. Take a look at where just a few stats can make a world of difference. The Bills have a 6.7 NY/A when passing and are able to squeeze many more fantasy points out of their passing game compared to the Jets, who threw the ball 23 more times, but actually have 2 fewer completions! It’s not about how much you do the thing, it’s about how well you do it.
The Bills are also running the ball efficiently with the time they do run it, probably because defenses have to defend the pass so much. They are gaining 4.8 Y/A, the 11th best in the league, and not that far behind the Bears. Since the best runner on the Bills is Josh Allen, this sort of ruins any chance they have at a candidate for a good fantasy RB. Their best is Devin Singletary, at RB26. They do have Allen all the way up at QB2, and Stefon Diggs at WR2, so it’s clear that their more focused, pass-heavy offense is netting tons of fantasy points.
So, what conclusions can we draw from this exercise? First, it’s not going to help being the team that runs the most or passes the most if you don’t have the right players to exploit it. Chances are, you’re just being forced into those situations because you’re a bad team. Second, it’s best to be in the middle of the pack regarding the split (somewhere around 42% run, 58% pass) to find the most offensive success. Third, you need to have all-pro players to really be a predictable offense and still succeed. If you do not have those players, you are going to struggle to find fantasy success. As much as we want our players to dominate touches or carries, your average player is going to be more likely to excel on a more balanced team.
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- Written by David Biggs
Now that we have four weeks under our belts, our rankings historically become more accurate with all of the player and team data available to work with. It's not much of a surprise that Cooper Kupp is still on top of the WR list, and - believe it or not - he would demonstrably outperform even his own record-breaking stats from last year if he is able to keep up his current level of production. Other guys like Saquon Barkley were great values in the draft and still providing tons of fantasy production to team managers.
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 5 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
4 Lost Fumbles
I’ve been talking up Trevor Lawrence, so it’s only fair that I talk about when he’s remarkably bad as well. He’s the first player this century to lose 4 fumbles in one game. Those 4 fumbles canceled out Lawrence’s 2 TD passes. He finished the game with 6.66 points – truly not a great sign for what I thought was a step forward in his second year. Lawrence added one pick to his total, for 5 overall turnovers – the most he’s had in a single game in his career. Sometimes I wish that there was still someone on TV to hype the Jaguars so I didn't feel so alone in this. Meanwhile, their opponent the Eagles D/ST has been having a great year – they now have 5 INTs, 5 fumbles recovered, and 16 sacks through just 4 games. They are now the D/ST2 on the season, but have 2 tough matchups leading into their bye week, so – maybe time to try and trade a D/ST? Is that even a thing?
2 Quarterbacks Over 30 Fantasy Points
…And neither of them are owned in the drinkfive.com so-called “Experts League”. Well, let’s not be too tough on everyone, here. Geno Smith threw for 2 TDs and ran in another while accounting for 369 total yards on the day on his way to leading the Seahawks to 48 total points – and they needed nearly every one of them. More on that in a moment. Joining Smith in the 30+ territory was his opponent, Jared Goff. For the second time this year, Goff threw for 4 TDs and he’s now the QB5 on the season. Goff is also tied for the league lead with 11 passing TDs. This is likely a trend that can continue for Goff, considering his team has given up the most points in the league so far this year.
140 Points Scored on the Season
The Detroit Lions are leading the league in scoring, having scored 140 points on the year so far. Unfortunately for them, they have given up 141 points – also the most in the league. This is why they have a very disappointing 1-3 record. The Lions have scored 35 and 45 points in games they lost this season. They are leading the league in passing TDs (tied), rushing yards per attempt, and total yards. Second in the league in rushing TDs, and top 10 in lots of other important offensive milestones. Unfortunately, they are dead last in defense when it comes to points, yards, first downs given up, rushing TDs, and rushing yards per attempt. It’s really an extreme experience being a Lions fan this season.
5 of 5 Field Goals in the Home of the Hotspurs
Kickers haven’t come up much this year so far, and props go to Greg Joseph of the Vikings who completed 5 of his 5 field goal attempts in England on Sunday morning. He kicked for a total of 181 yards, including one with under 30 seconds left to answer Will Lutz’s 60-yard field goal which had tied the game just minutes earlier. The fans in England were treated to a good game, one that had 5 scores in the 4th quarter alone. Unfortunately for Joseph, he can’t claim he had a perfect day, as he did miss 1 extra point. In fact, each of the top 4 scoring kickers missed one kick this week – 3 of them missing extra points attempts. Perhaps this shows that the NFL moving the extra point back is accomplishing what they wanted. Perhaps this shows that kicking is pretty damn random indeed. Perhaps they don’t even belong in a column about fantasy football. My apologies, it’s getting late.
35.9 Fantasy Points
I tried my best, but I just couldn’t avoid talking about one more Detroit Lion. It’s not as if he doesn’t deserve it. T.J. Hockenson scored 35.9 fantasy points, the most of any TE this season – by more than 10 points. Hockenson had 8 receptions for 179 yards (lead the league in receiving yards) and scored 2 TDs. He even tacked on a 2-point conversion catch just for the cherry on top. This catapulted him all the way to TE3 on the season, even though he had only 19.2 points going into week 4. He has 65% of his points in just one game this year. Sometimes a small sample size is really fun to play with.