Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
With the league extending to 17 games and 18 weeks this season, bye weeks have also been extended.
Unfortunately this year the league gives us another super bye week with six teams taking a breather. As was said before, weeks like this are where we need to hit as much as we can. And with the roll we’re on after last week, I’m not too worried!
Week 14 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
13 – DALLAS over Houston – The Cowboys just put up 54 points at home…but at least the Texans will have Davis Mills back!!!
12 – CINCINNATI over Cleveland – It’s a little more difficult to win a game without any offensive points against the Texans than it will be against the Bengals.
11 – SEATTLE over Carolina – The Panthers don’t exactly have an offense that makes me feel they can score against the 12th Man.
10 – SAN FRANCISCO over Tampa Bay – Barely winning at home against the Saints means you don’t get to travel cross-country and beat the 9ers.
9 – TENNESSEE over Jacksonville – King Henry always seems to have fun hosting the Jags. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that DERRICK HENRY WILL RUN FOR AT LEAST 200 YARDS.
8 – Kansas City over DENVER – Remember people thinking this game would go a long way in determining the AFC West race? Not me, but other people? Remember?
7 – BUFFALO over New York Jets – Weird to think that the Bills will come out on top in this one just because they are the home team.
6 – Las Vegas over LOS ANGELES RAMS – As a Raiders fan, I was very happy to see Baker Mayfield get picked up by the Rams this week.
5 – ARIZONA over New England – This is a Monday Night matchup that will have Buck and Aikman looking at their bank accounts to remind themselves why they took the Monday Night Football job.
4 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Miami – This is a game the Chargers should win – all depends on their defense that has not lived up to expectations.
3 – Minnesota over DETROIT – I feel that this game should be higher on our list…but there’s just something about this that makes me keep it this low.
2 – PITTSBURGH over Baltimore – No Lamar…the Steelers offense…take the under!
1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Philadelphia – Pure “Home Team Hunch” on this.
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- Written by David Biggs
Take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Currently, my rankings are sitting at #9 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com.
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 14 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
54 Points
The Dallas Cowboys scored 14 more points than any other team on Sunday, putting up a whopping 54 on Sunday Night Football against the Colts. The Colts would have needed the help of all 3 other teams in the AFC South to beat the Cowboys on Sunday, and that would have only been by a field goal. One of the stats that stuck out to me about the Cowboys is that they scored so many points with so few yards. They had only 385 yards of offense. Tony Pollard led the team with just 106 yards from scrimmage. No other player had over 100. Dak Prescott threw for just 170 yards. Dallas didn’t even have more time of possession than the Colts. What they did do is score 5 touchdowns in the 4th quarter. Helps when your average starting position is on the 33 yard-line.
29.1 Fantasy Points
Amon-Ra St. Brown had 11 receptions on 12 targets (both season highs) on Sunday and showed why he’s one of the best WRs in the league when healthy. In the games he’s not injured, he averages 17.8 points per game, good for 5th in the league. Despite missing a game for injury and being hurt in 2 others, he’s still the overall WR7 on the season. He is a target machine, averaging over 10 targets per game in those 9 games where he’s started off healthy this season. It’s very important to get St. Brown involved early and often in games. This year he has 5 games with 8 or more receptions. While the Lions are a respectable 3-2 in those games, both those losses have come against the Eagles and Bills – two teams clearly out of their league. St. Brown is going to be perhaps the most important part of the Lions if their team has any measure of success in the near future.
34.40 Fantasy Points
Jalen Hurts leads the league in fantasy points this week with 34.40 points. He’s only scored more than that once in his career, but it’s his consistency that I’m amazed by. This year, he only has 2 games below 20 points and only 3 games below 24. Throughout his career, he has 21 games with at least 20 fantasy points, and he’s only started 31 games in his career. Hurts is really developing into a top-tier QB before our eyes. He’s an MVP candidate this year, if not the leading one right now. He did almost all his damage on Sunday with his arm – he only ran 5 times for 12 yards, though he did find the end zone, which always helps the old point total. He’s now the QB2 on the season, just behind Patrick Mahomes and just ahead of Josh Allen. The top tier of QBs has more than 50 points on the QB5. They have truly separated themselves from the rest of the pack.
3-0 in 2022
Joe Burrow has now played the Chiefs 3 times in 2022. Twice last season and once this season now. He’s 3-0. He’s only played 3 times against the Chiefs – a perfect record against them is basically unheard of. In those 3 games, he has 8 touchdowns and just one INT, along with a rushing TD on top of that. He is especially good in the regular season, averaging 366 yards per game (thanks to an epic 446-yard performance last year, following up his 525-yard one the week before). On Sunday he completed over 80% of his passes and ran the ball a career-high 11 times. His career stats only get better as the year goes on. He’s great in December, completing almost 73% of his passes, and even better in January, so watch out. Sure, he’s never beaten the Browns (0-4) and has a losing record when playing inside his own division (5-8), but he’s taken down Patrick Mahomes 3 times, and that’s plenty for Bengals fans to hang their hat on.
27 Points on D/ST
Not just a fantasy stat, this is also a real-life stat! The Cleveland Browns scored 27 points against the Texans, none of them on offense. Thanks, Deshaun. No, I’m not salty that I started him this week. Not at all…but I digress. The Browns D/ST had an incredible fantasy day. They scored 27 fantasy points, now the high-water mark on the season after 3 teams were tied at 26 points. The Browns scored two defensive TDs and had a punt returned for a touchdown as well. A pair each of INTs and fumble recoveries capped off an impressive day over the hapless Texans, who were powerless, despite shutting the Browns' offense out.
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- Written by David Biggs
WEEK 13 STARTS
A.J. Dillon (RB-GB) @ CHI
After a very middling season so far, Dillon last week put up 16 fantasy points including his first TD since week 1. Averaging 12 touches per game, Dillon always has an opportunity to excel but the Packers have not been playing well in general this season until the emergence of Christian Watson in Week 10. Having a wide receiver like Watson attracting defensive attention away from the line of scrimmage should be a plus for Dillon in the passing game.
A caveat here, if you watched the game last week we saw Dillon move to the sideline in the 4th quarter with what looked like a minor foot/ankle injury. He did practice today and was marked as limited with a quad but it doesn’t seem like that is a serious injury or will keep him out of the lineup against the Bears. A lot of people are down on Dillon so far this season and deservedly so, since he has only scored enough fantasy points to be RB34 on the year and had a preseason ADP of RB24.
All that said, Chicago’s defense has looked very fragile since trading some key components and suffering a ton of injuries over the past few weeks on both sides of the ball. In last week’s game, for example, the Bears had five total players leave the game due to injury including safeties Eddie Jackson and Dane Cruikshank, and other members of the secondary are still going through concussion protocol from previous weeks. After letting Mike White and rookie UDFA Zonovan Knight light up the stadium, I would toss some bets in the direction of any/all reasonably able-bodied offensive players on the Packers that are in line for opportunities to score fantasy points.
The Bears have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs so far this season and that’s a stat that has increased over the last few weeks. I find it very easy to believe that Dillon has another one of his best games of the season this week, which equates to ~15 fantasy points and should make him a solid RB2 in this matchup. And yes, I know that Aaron Rodgers has both a thumb fracture and a rib issue, but if he plays injured (or doesn’t play at all) that may actually end up helping Dillon and the Packers’ rushing game in general, as they would likely lean even more on that part of the offense.
Kyren Williams (RB-LAR) vs SEA
Williams was the Rams’ 5th round pick in this year’s draft. He hadn’t seen the field very much up until last week. He had 14 touches against KC in a game that the Rams were never really in. The 14 touches doubled his season total - he’d only appeared in two previous games. What I do like to see is that in Week 12, Williams was on the field for 70% of the offense’s snaps. He was targeted in the passing game 3 times, reeling in all 3 catches.
Now, I’m not necessarily saying that he’s going to be a start over some studs or some no-brainers, but if you’re stuck with bye weeks or you’re struggling to fill your lineup in the race to making the playoffs, Williams is a great fill-in for a missing RB2 or a flex spot. Williams is rostered in 43% of Fleaflicker leagues, and he has a great matchup against the Seahawks, who are giving up the 3rd most points to opposing RBs. Last week they got beat up by Josh Jacobs to the tune of 45 points, but they’ve also given up 4 other 20+ point performances, and double digit points to 11 different players. That’s an average of one per week!
If Williams is going to see usage like he did in Week 12, then I think that he will turn into a serviceable back. He’s going to have matchups for the rest of the year against teams giving up top-10 points to opposing RBs, so you could do a lot worse than Williams, especially if all you need is depth on your team. I’m also going to put my money where my mouth is - I’ll start Kyren Williams (RB35) over Latavius Murray (RB23) in a league where I’m in the playoff hunt. Obviously, it’s one where I’m already hurting at the position.
Skyy Moore (WR-KC) @ CIN
Every year there are a few rookie wideouts that have the talent and opportunity to excel from the very beginning of the season. This year those players are Chris Olave (WR14, 128.2 points), Garrett Wilson (WR23, 111.7 points), George Pickens (WR38, 91.4 points), Christian Watson (WR40, 90.5 points), and Drake London (WR42, 88.3 points).
And, I mean, that’s great for those guys and their teams, but most receivers achieve success and have breakout games later in the season or even in their 2nd or 3rd years. Talking about Skyy Moore (WR122, 23 points), he has been sprinkled in but not heavily involved in the offense so far this season, seeing only 14 targets through week 10. But when we look at the last couple of games, we are likely seeing a shift in his usage due to injuries and depth chart changes.
In both weeks 11 and 12, Moore saw 6 targets and logged 5 receptions in each game. That’s more catches (10) in two games than he had over the rest of the season (7). He played in 42% of snaps in week 11 and 46% in week 12, and is building chemistry and trust with QB Patrick Mahomes. I’m not suggesting that Moore be inserted as a WR1 or 2 this week, but I think he’s a valid flex play for PPR leagues and should be picked up from waivers with the anticipation of a possible breakout game to occur over the next few weeks.
Zay Jones (WR-JAX) @ DET
Zay Jones was one of the key players in the Jaguars win over Baltimore last week, and he gets another fantastic matchup this week against the Lions. Jones is trending up over the last 4 weeks, improving in fantasy points, targets, receptions, and yardage. He’s clearly becoming a key part of the Jaguars offense and is someone that Trevor Lawrence looks to when the game is on the line. He had 5 receptions in the 4th quarter in week 12. Jones is going to be the ever-important complement to Christian Kirk. Traditionally, the second WR in lots of robust offensive systems can do very well in fantasy football. The Jaguars have the 9th most yards gained on offense in the league.
Jones gets the Lions in week 13, a team giving up the 4th most points to opposing WRs. They have given up an astonishing 17 double-digit point performances on the season, in only 11 games. There’s tons of room for the Jaguars to move the ball through the air in Detroit, and it’s coming at a time when Trevor Lawrence is throwing the ball very well. He has 6 TDs in the last 3 weeks with no interceptions. He’s completing almost 77% of his passes over that stretch. The Jaguars have defined themselves as a passing team now - they pass the ball 56.7% of the time, compared to running it 43.5% of the time. They’re right in the middle of that split, which is a great place to be, as we’ve discussed in previous weeks.
WEEK 13 SITS
Mike White (QB-NYJ) @ MIN
Has the whole world gone crazy? I guess I’m the only person not aboard the Mike White hype train, which is headed straight into a brick wall. I suggest you disembark as well, before the impending crash impacts your team’s fantasy playoff aspirations or affects your seeding to make you miss a bye week, etc. As I mentioned earlier when talking about A.J. Dillon’s chances of making a positive contribution to fantasy squads, the Chicago Bears defense was very diminished to start last week’s game against the Jets and they went on to lose even more integral parts of their secondary throughout the match. White’s success has as much to do with that as anything else.
This is the same guy that put up great numbers against Cincinnati last year in week 8 (405 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs), and then followed that up with 2 clunkers against the Colts and Bills over which he racked up 1 TD and 4 INTs total. In fact, people were chanting “Mike White” last November too… apparently we all ate and drank too much over the holidays and completely forgot that this had all happened before.
The Vikings are a far better team than the Chicago Bears right now. Don’t make the mistake of chasing points in this situation. On the flip side, it is very apparent that the Vikings employ a ‘bend but don’t break’ philosophy for their secondary and that has resulted in among the most passing yards allowed across the league this year. It’s my opinion, though, that the tape they will be able to study and plan for from last week and the propensity of Mike White to throw a few wild, ‘interceptable’ balls should result in enough to make this ‘possible league-winner’ (language I’ve seen on more than a few websites this week) fall to low-end QB2 territory. I have him as the QB18 right now but I guarantee you that his ranking will be inching up closer to QB10 over the course of the week. Ignore it.
Kirk Cousins (QB-MIN) vs NYJ
Kirk had a big week last week, and I did shout him out in my column. It was not exactly expected, considering his history in prime time games. Well, that was way back on Monday and, after a few days, I feel the need to double down on my naysaying of Kirk Cousins.
Cousins faces the Jets this week, who are giving up the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. The Jets have only given up good games to top-5 QBs (Allen, Burrow, Jackson). Cousins is not near their tier, he’s only the QB13 on the season. The Jets aren’t exactly giving up lots of fantasy points to any position, so there’s no real avenue for Kirk to leech fantasy points through another player.
Cousins has had up and down scoring all season. He has not been able to score 18+ points in a game and follow it up with a similar performance the next week. Last year, the same trend was true after week 3 of the season.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it down to the final two weeks of the fantasy regular season, and hopefully, you’re still alive and kicking for a playoff spot. We get back into byes this week, so you again may have some work to do to field your best lineup. It’s been an interesting couple of weeks for the rookies.
While the top running backs (Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker) have been going through some struggles in recent weeks, it’s been a breakout season for the rookie wide receivers. Christian Watson has scored 6 TDs in the last 3 weeks, Treylon Burks has reached 17 PPR points in back-to-back weeks, Garrett Wilson got back on track as the overall WR2 in week 12 with Mike White at QB, Chris Olave has kept his season humming along, and David Bell and Skyy Moore have seen season-highs in usage in recent weeks as well. November has been a good month to get rookie receivers in your lineups. Will these trends continue into December? That’s what I’m here to talk about.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s get into week 13…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 13: @LAR): Walker has been abysmal as a rusher in his last two games, totaling just 43 yards on 24 carries, but it hasn’t killed his fantasy value. He finished as the PPR RB18 and RB14 in those two games as he made up for those inefficient carries with a bunch of receiving work in week 10 and two touchdowns in week 12. It could be more of the same this week. The Rams rank 5th in run defense DVOA, so Walker could have struggles on the ground once again, but with 9 TDs in the last 7 games, Walker’s ceiling is too high to sit him. The Seahawks should have a positive game script as 5.5-point favorites, and Walker has scored 41% of the Seahawks' offensive TDs over those last 7 games. Keep plugging him in as a solid RB2.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Min.): Wilson’s fantasy value has come back to life with Zach Wilson riding the pine and Mike White in at QB. He did have some success with Wilson starting, posting 2 games of 17+ PPR points with Zach at QB, but he failed to score 7 PPR points in any of the other 5 games with Zach under center. Garrett’s earned at least 8 targets and caught for 50+ yards in all 4 games that Zach Wilson didn’t start, including two separate 2-TD games. Wilson is the focal point of the passing game no matter who is at QB, and if White doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin this week, the rookie receiver should be a WR2 against a Minnesota defense that allows the 5th-most WR points per game.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 13: @TB): Olave continues to be as steady as they come after posting his 9th double-digit PPR performance in his last 10 games. Last week was a floor performance for Olave, and he finished as the PPR WR38. We haven’t seen the outlandish target totals for Olave lately that we did earlier this season, but he’s still had 44% or more of the team air yards in 3 of the last 4 weeks. The return of Jarvis Landry really hasn’t dented his usage. Olave remains the Saints' WR1, and although the Bucs are in the top half of the league in limiting WR points, they’ve had their issues with WR1s. In their last 3 games, they allowed lines of 8-127-1 to Cooper Kupp, 6-71 to DK Metcalf, and 7-94 to Amari Cooper. Olave himself went for 5-80 in the first meeting with Tampa. Something in that range should be a reasonable expectation here for Olave as well.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): It’s been ugly for Pierce in his last two games. He’s been limited to 33 scrimmage yards on 21 touches in games where the Texans were routed by the Commanders and Dolphins. Last Sunday was especially rough to watch for fantasy managers with Pierce on their rosters. Pierce split his usual role with Dare Ogunbowale in the second half after the team fell behind. Ogunbowale scored a 3-yard TD in the 3rd quarter that could’ve bailed out a lot of folks who started Pierce. The scoreboard outlook for Houston isn’t much better this week – they’re 7-point underdogs against the Cleveland Browns – but it’s a much better matchup for Pierce to have rushing success. Cleveland ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game. The Browns have allowed 5 different running backs to run for 60+ yards in their last 3 games, all of whom averaged at least 4 yards per carry. I also expect the Browns’ offense to have some struggles early as Deshaun Watson shakes off the rust of not playing for 2 years. If that happens, the Texans may stay in the game a little longer and be able to run it more than they have in recent weeks. This is a good spot for a bounce-back for Pierce, though I understand if you don’t want to take that risk after seeing the floor in the last two weeks.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Warren sat out on Monday night with a hamstring injury, but he’s practicing in full ahead of this week’s game in Atlanta and may return to a new starting role after Najee Harris suffered an injury of his own that could keep him out in week 13. If Harris sits, Warren will operate as the lead back against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 9th-most RB points per game. Atlanta has allowed 110+ scrimmage yards to the opposing lead back in 4 of their last 5 games. It remains to be seen if Warren will dominate touches to the same degree that Najee Harris typically does, or if Benny Snell or Anthony McFarland will mix in a bit more. Even if Warren shares more of the load, I’d view him as a low-end RB2 this week if Harris sits.
RB Brian Robinson, WAS (Wk. 13: @NYG): Robinson posted his best game of the season last week against a bad Atlanta defense, piling up 125 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. I think he’s got a great chance at back-to-back strong games. The Giants rank 27th in run defense DVOA and have given up over 140 rushing yards to the opposing backs in each of the last two games (vs. Detroit and Dallas). The game script should allow the Commanders to be able to run the ball (they’re 1.5-point favorites), and that means Robinson should find his way to 15+ carries against a bad run defense. He’s a solid RB2/3 option this week.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): After I talked last week about how rarely the Chiefs hand off the ball when they get close to the goal line, they seemingly went out of their way to give Pacheco goal line opportunities last Sunday. Pacheco totaled 12 carries in the red zone, and 5 from the 5-yard line or closer…but all of them were in the 2nd half. The game wasn’t exactly out of reach, but a 10-point lead against the Bryce Perkins-led Rams probably felt pretty safe as the team got Pacheco involved in the scoring area. Pacheco didn’t make the most of those opportunities, but he did manage to put one of them into the end zone. He totaled just 19 rushing yards on those 12 red zone totes, and again, only one of those runs had the distance limited by Pacheco reaching the end zone. On the plus side, Pacheco did handle 85% of the team's rushing attempts and earned a target as well. It was his third straight game with 80+ scrimmage yards, and you know the Chiefs will have red zone opportunities. I’d view Pacheco as a low-floor, moderate-ceiling RB2 this week.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 13: @Chi.): After scoring 6 touchdowns in the last 3 games, what can Christian Watson do for an encore? He should get Aaron Rodgers back under center this week, has reached at least a 30% share of the team air yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and faces a Chicago defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA on Sunday. There’s still a bit of a boom-or-bust element with Watson, especially if Romeo Doubs returns this week, but I think Watson has earned continued opportunities and looks like an upside WR3 to me for this one. Even if Doubs returns, I’d expect the Packers to ease him in with the bye looming in week 14.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Burks has been on a tear in the last two weeks, but he could come back down to earth a bit this week against a good Philly secondary. Even after struggling to contain Christian Watson and Randall Cobb last week, the Eagles have allowed just the 9th-fewest WR points per game. Watson’s and Cobb’s TDs were just the 2nd and 3rd WR scores the Eagles have surrendered in their last 6 games. The thing that stands out about last week’s game is that starting Philly safety CJ Gardner-Johnson left the game with a lacerated kidney that will keep him out this week as well. He played just 11 snaps and was off the field for all 3 of the Packers’ passing TDs, including a 63-yard TD to Christian Watson. That Watson TD included a long run after the catch where Gardner-Johnson’s replacement, Reed Blankenship, took a bad angle in pursuit and missed the tackle. Burks has similar run-after-catch skills, and he’s seen a 37% air yardage share in each of the last two games as the team has made a bigger effort to push the ball down the field. The last two games included two of Ryan Tannehill’s 3 highest air yardage totals of the season. If the Titans continue the increased efforts to throw downfield, Burks could be in for yet another nice day against a defense missing a key piece. He’s a WR3 with an upside for more. Keep an eye on the injury report here. Burks missed practice Thursday with an illness.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Steelers’ overall passing game hasn’t been anything to write home about with Kenny Pickett at QB, but Pickens has been the best weekly option among his pass catchers. While Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson compete for the short targets, Pickens is the downfield weapon earning the higher value targets. In the last two weeks, Pickens has just one fewer target than Diontae Johnson and more than TRIPLE the air yards of his veteran teammate. For the season, only the Detroit Lions have allowed more completed air yards than the Falcons, and Atlanta has the lowest pressure rate in the league, generating pressure on just 11% of dropbacks by opposing QBs. Pickett will have time to find Pickens downfield, and that should mean good things for Pickens’ fantasy outlook. I don’t know that George has quite the same ceiling this week as Watson or Treylon Burks, given the low passing yardage we typically see from Pickett, but he probably has a safer floor than either of those two other rookie receivers.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 13 @Atl.): Pickett is only on the borderline in 2-QB and Superflex formats. The matchup with Atlanta looks enticing on paper. The Falcons have allowed the 10th-most QB points per game and rank 29th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve limited 3 of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 15 fantasy points, and the one guy who topped 15, Justin Fields, put up more than half of his production with his legs. Pickett has been a low-ceiling fantasy option as a rookie. He hasn’t had more than 1 total TD in any of the 7 games he’s started, and he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 4 out of 7. Atlanta isn’t a good defense, but Pickett remains just a low-end QB2.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 13: vs. NO): White has handled 45 touches in the last two weeks with Leonard Fournette dealing with a hip injury, but it appeared that White may have leap-frogged Lenny on the depth chart even before the injury. Rachaad was in the game on the opening drive in week 11, and at worst was splitting the workload with Fournette in that game prior to the veteran getting hurt. The Saints are a tough matchup for running backs, allowing the 8th-fewest running back points per game, but if Fournette sits, White’s passing game ability means you shouldn’t be sitting him in PPR leagues with a full workload. If Fournette plays, things get a little messier. White becomes a dicier RB3 option in that case. The biggest concern here is that the Bucs don’t play until Monday night. We might not have clarity on Fournette’s availability until after all your fallback options for White have already played. If starting Rachaad is a consideration, keep a close eye on the reports on Fournette. He’s practicing this week, so I’d operate under the assumption that he suits up, and if you have other solid options you could start over White on Sunday, I’d roll with those other options. White probably sees 12-15 touches if Fournette plays. For the season, White ranks 39th in yards per touch out of 50 qualified running backs.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): Kyren functioned as the lead back in week 12, handling 71% of the Rams’ backfield snaps, but this is an offense that will likely struggle to score points with Bryce Perkins at QB, and they don’t throw enough for Kyren to be a PPR maven, which is the role his skill set is best suited for. Williams saw 3 targets last week, and it was enough for a 14% target share. The Seahawks are a great matchup for running backs, allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to the position, but I don’t think Kyren is going to be able to really take advantage this week. You could plug him in as an RB3 in a PPR league if you really need help, but you should be smiling if he manages to give you 10+ points.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Pit.): You know what to expect from Allgeier each week – around 8-10 carries and maybe a target or two. He’s worth a look as a flex play in plus matchups, especially in non-PPR formats, but this isn’t exactly a plus matchup. The Steelers rank 8th in run defense DVOA, and Allgeier is unlikely to post big numbers on his part-time workload.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Pit.): The matchup this week is as good as it gets for London. The Steelers allow the most WR points per game, but it’ll take a strong stomach to try your luck here. London still hasn’t reached 50 yards in a game since week 3, and he just finished with 2-29 last week in a good matchup against the Commanders as teammate Olamide Zaccheaus caught for 91 yards. There’s an upside for London if the ball actually comes his way, but after scoring fewer than 8 PPR points in 8 of his last 9 games, there seems to be more downside than upside here.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 13: @NYG): Dotson has now been back on the field for 3 weeks since his stint on IR. They’re the only 3 games he’s played with Taylor Heinicke under center. Dotson has totaled 4 targets, 2 receptions, and 27 yards in those 3 games. You can’t get Dotson into lineups until we see the ball start going his way more often or one of the two receivers ahead of him (Terry McLaurin or Curtis Samuel) gets hurt.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Dulcich continues to post 80%+ route participation rates each week, but the play of Russell Wilson has deteriorated to the point where it’s hard to rely on any of his pass catchers outside of Courtland Sutton in lineups. Dulcich has totaled just 7 catches for 52 yards in the last 3 weeks. He did have a TD wiped away by a penalty last weekend, but that’s hardly comforting if he was in your lineup. His opponent this week, the Ravens, are a middling TE defense. They’ve allowed the 14th-fewest TE points per game. The tight end position is a wasteland right now, so you could do worse than a guy who is playing a full-time role on a team that is usually in negative game scripts if you need a fill-in. A stat line like 4-40 could be enough for a top-12 TE finish in any given week. Dulcich is in play as a fringe TE1 this week, but I’d prefer waiver wire options like Tyler Conklin or Hayden Hurst if available.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 13: @Dal.): What a performance Jelani Woods put on in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football. The rookie came into week 12 with just 7 catches and 79 yards for the season while playing in a 3-way committee with Kylen Granson and Mo-Alie Cox, but he put up a ridiculous 8-for-98 stat line with Granson out due to illness against the Steelers. Woods tallied about half of the Colts' total receiving yards for the game. Will that workload continue this week if Granson is able to return? Probably not. Woods is certainly worth adding if you need tight-end help and have a roster spot, but you’d probably be best served to wait a week to see if the usage holds with Granson back before plugging him into lineups. The Colts face Dallas this week, and the Cowboys rank 1st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points per game. Only 4 tight ends all year have reached 35 receiving yards against the Cowboys, and only 1 has found the end zone. It’s also worth noting that Woods is not practicing as of Thursday due to injury, and his status for Sunday remains up in the air.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Bryce Perkins, LAR (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): I thought Perkins had a great chance at 50+ rushing yards last week against Kansas City. He finished with 44, but he was even worse as a passer than I expected. He finished as the QB30 for the week with just 100 passing yards in a matchup that was more favorable than the one he faces this week. He’s a fringe QB2 at best this week unless he has a blow-up rushing game. Kyler Murray is the only QB to run for 25+ yards against the Seahawks this season. Murray has accounted for 71% of all of the QB rushing yards the Seahawks have allowed this year (in 2 games).
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 13: @NE): Cook appeared to be on the verge of a breakout in week 11 when he totaled 86 yards on 11 touches against the Browns, but he was back to being an afterthought in the offense on Thanksgiving. Cook saw a few more targets in the passing game but was on the field for just 14 offensive snaps and carried the ball only twice. Two carries and a handful of targets are not going to make Cook a viable fantasy option, especially this week against a New England defense that allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 13: @LV): With Joshua Kelley back from IR, Spiller was back to the RB3 in this backfield. He’s not going to be useful even in a good matchup with the Raiders this week.
RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 13: @Det.): Don’t let the injury to Travis Etienne make you consider Conner this week. He’s not an option. Etienne should be good to go, and both JaMycal Hasty and Darrell Henderson would play ahead of Conner.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): I’ve touted Bell as having upside when Deshaun Watson returns, and Watson returns this week, but I’d wait a week before even considering Bell for lineups. Bell has been very involved in recent weeks, with at least 5 targets in 3 straight games and a 60%+ snap share in each of the last two, but it may take a week for Watson to shake off the cobwebs after not starting a game in nearly two years. The Browns also aren’t likely to have to throw much against an abysmal Texans defense. Bell isn’t an option unless you’re desperate for someone who could put up 5-6 PPR points.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Pierce has played at least 65% of the offensive snaps in the last 4 games, but he’s totaled just 9.1 PPR points in that span. It wouldn’t shock anyone if he put up a double-digit performance in any given week, but a goose egg is just as likely, especially against a Dallas defense that ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Thornton has played fewer than 40% of the snaps in each of the past two weeks and totaled just 2 targets in those contests. The Patriots will need to throw to keep pace with Buffalo’s high-powered offense, but you can’t count on much of that passing going to Thornton.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): It sounds like Bellinger will be able to return from his fractured eye socket this week (Coach Brian Daboll is optimistic that he’ll play), but after a month off I would be surprised if he immediately returns to a full workload. Anyone with a pulse is an option at tight end, but I’d recommend caution as Bellinger faces a Washington defense that allows the 2nd-fewest TE points per game.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 13: vs. NO): Otton’s run as a feasible tight end option is officially over after he recorded zero targets last weekend. He’ll still play about half the snaps, splitting the job with Cam Brate, but he isn’t a starting TE option unless you know Brate isn’t going to play. Brate will play this week, and the Saints allow the fewest TE points per game.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Both Ferguson and Hendershot had solid days on Thanksgiving, with Ferguson posting a 3-57 line and Hendershot getting into the end zone on a goal line rushing attempt, but neither guy is getting more than a couple of opportunities each week with Schultz back. There’s not enough volume here to rely on either player.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Likely missed last week with an injury, and he’s questionable for week 13, but he’s topped 4 targets and 30 receiving yards just once in any game with a fully healthy Mark Andrews. There’s no reason to start Likely this week even if he suits up.
Rookies on byes in week 13: RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI, TE Trey McBride, ARI
Rookies who may as well be on byes in week 13: RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, TE Cole Turner, WAS
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, & Cheap DFS Options:
RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Min.): Knight was unquestionably the surprise of the week in week 12. The Jets’ backfield pecking order seemed to be pretty well established in recent weeks after they traded for James Robinson to pair with Michael Carter, but Robinson was a shocking healthy scratch last week, and it was Knight who stepped in to take his place. The rookie finished the week as the RB23 with 103 scrimmage yards after Carter left the game with an injury. Carter may be able to return this weekend, but he’s not practicing yet as of Thursday and it’s worth noting that Knight played on 31% of the offensive snaps BEFORE Carter got hurt, and he certainly made the most of his opportunities and has likely earned more of them. If Carter does miss this week, Knight should own the early down work against a Minnesota defense that allows the 12th-most RB points per game. They’ve allowed 4 different backs to top 15 fantasy points against them in the last 3 weeks, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Knight makes it 5 backs in 4 weeks. He’s an upside RB3 if Carter is out this week, and he’s worth a roster spot even if Carter plays.
RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): I know it probably seems counterintuitive to list White as a sleeper when he played just 3 offensive snaps last Sunday, and the starter ahead of him put up over 300 scrimmage yards in that game, but Josh Jacobs’ status is up in the air for this week. If he misses this game, White is in line for the early down work against a defense that allows the 4th-most RB points per game and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. Jacobs did have an injury designation for the same calf injury last week before having a career day, so it’s very possible he plays, but if he sits, Zamir is an RB3 with upside this week. The Chargers have given up 85+ rushing yards to a back in each of the past 4 weeks.
RBs Jordan Mason & Tyrion Davis-Price, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Mia.): It seemed like Mason and TDP were likely banished from fantasy football consideration for the rest of the season after the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey and got Elijah Mitchell back from IR, but just a few weeks later Mitchell is out for the rest of the regular season and CMC is battling a knee injury. McCaffrey will likely still play, but Mitchell and Mason combined for 14 carries per game over the last 3 weeks behind him. We’ve seen this scenario play out once before, where Mason appeared to be the next man up, but it was Davis-Price who stepped into the more prominent role instead. Mason had been active ahead of him for special teams purposes. It’s possible we see the same thing play out here. Both players are worth a stash, but I would prioritize TDP if both are available. The RB2 behind McCaffrey should be in line for around 12 touches per game or so. Both are in play as a desperation option this week, but neither is a particularly good start against a Miami defense that ranks 12th in run defense DVOA. They’re more interesting in DFS contests, especially the showdown format, where Mason costs just $2,000 and Davis-Price an even more enticing $200 on DraftKings.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Moore might finally be sneaking into the range where you can consider him in fantasy lineups in the deepest of leagues. He’s still been under a 50% route participation rate in every game this season, but Mahomes has been actively looking for him in the last two weeks with Hardman and Toney sidelined. Moore has been targeted on just shy of 40% of his total routes run in the last two weeks, and this week’s game with the Bengals figures to be a shootout. The Bengals’ pass defense hasn’t been the same since losing Chidobe Awuzie for the season. He was hurt early on against the Browns in week 8. Three of the four highest passing yardage totals the Bengals have allowed have happened from week 8 on, and they’ve come from QBs who haven’t thrown for a ton of yards this year – Jacoby Brissett, Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. Each QB put up their 2nd-highest passing yardage game of the season against the Awuzie-less Bengals. Imagine what an elite QB like Patrick Mahomes can do this week. I like Moore’s chances of getting to something like 5-50 and a possible score. He’d be a good target for DFS lineups and could be a solid WR4 in deeper leagues this week. Also, pay up for Mahomes in DFS this week.
WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): It doesn’t appear that Williams is going to make his debut in week 13, but it’s not impossible. He got in his first full practice of the season on Wednesday. The Jaguars are terrible against the pass (30th in pass defense DVOA), so there’s some intrigue in Williams as a DFS tournament play, but I’d wait until we see him in game action to plug him into season-long lineups. The main reason I mention Williams here is because he’s still available in entirely too many leagues. He’s only 52% rostered on Sleeper and 21.5% rostered on ESPN. If he’s available in your league, he shouldn’t be.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Okonkwo is just a DFS dart throw for this week, but one who could have a sneaky upside. He’s seen his playing time hover around 35-40% of the snaps in recent weeks, but he gets the ball thrown his way when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on 33% of his routes run for the year, and the Eagles may be a little more vulnerable in the middle of the field with CJ Gardner-Johnson out of action. Okonkwo saw 5 targets last week and has tallied a 30+ yard catch in 3 of the last 4 games. Don’t be surprised if he gets loose for a long catch in this one.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
The number 13 has an odd aura around it.
The NFL seems to be doing its part to add to that way of thinking with some of the matchups in Week 13.
This season, Week 13 gives us plenty of matchups that are simply toss-ups. Sure, we still have a couple that are sure things and a couple that deserve to be at the bottom of the list, but there are a LOT in the middle that can go either way!
So, in times like this, we know that this is where we are going to further the gap between us and second place!
Week 13 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
15 – BALTIMORE over Denver – Russell Wilson’s contract info made the rounds on the internet this week. As a Raiders fan…it made me very happy!
14 – DALLAS over Indianapolis – Jeff Saturday seems to be learning on the job. AT&T Stadium isn’t the best place to still have to bring your textbook.
13 – TAMPA BAY over New Orleans – This is more of a having no confidence in the Saints than it is having confidence in Tampa.
12 – MINNESOTA over New York Jets – Hard to think that even a Jets team led by top-tier quarterback Mike White can keep up with the Vikes.
11 – SAN FRANCISCO over Miami – Over…take the over…
10 – PHILADELPHIA over Tennessee – Super Bowl preview? I mean, probably not, but makes it sound a little more exciting, right?
9 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington – This will be a solid NFC East battle…yet, somehow, still just has the aura of a game that I just don’t care about.
8 – LAS VEGAS over Los Angeles Chargers – This was supposed to be a matchup to see who would be the real one to challenge Chiefs for the division…maybe next year, I guess.
7 – CINCINNATI over Kansas City – I feel like the Bengals have been motivated by the shots I have taken at their expense. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is even after the slow start, THE BENGALS WILL MAKE IT TO (at least) THE AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME.
6 – Buffalo over NEW ENGLAND – There’s just something about this one that has me putting the Bills lower than they probably should be – follow your hunches, folks!
5 – DETROIT over Jacksonville – I can’t be the only one that thinks this could actually be an intriguing and entertaining game to watch, am i?
4 – ATLANTA over Pittsburgh – I’d like to welcome the Steelers to the world of games being decided just by who the home team is.
3 – Seattle over Los Angeles Rams – Oh, poor Rams! Literally, poor Rams – they’ll have hundreds of millions of dollars injured and sitting on the sidelines for this one.
2 – HOUSTON over Cleveland – I would say that Deshaun Watson may need to “shake off” the rust in his return to the league…but that may sound a little too suggestive for his return to Houston.
1 – CHICAGO over Green Bay – This is obviously if Aaron Rodgers can’t go this week. If the Bears’ majority owner can go, then you’ll definitely want to switch this, but still keep the Pack on the one-point line.
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- Written by David Biggs
Take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Currently, my rankings are sitting at #9 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com.
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 13 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
14.6 Fantasy Points
This week, 14.6 fantasy points are more than the RB16, Ty Johnson scored. Josh Jacobs accomplished that on one play in OT. In total, he gained 109 yards and scored 1 TD in overtime – whatever fantasy player always dreams about when their players make it to overtime. On the day, Jacobs had an astounding 303 yards from scrimmage, scored 2 TDs, and added 6 receptions. He touched the ball 39 times and he was only tackled for a loss twice, losing just one yard each time. His grand total was 45.3 fantasy points, good for the second-highest total on the season among all players. Jacobs is now the RB1 on the season and is the only RB averaging more than 20 points per game. He’s leading the league in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage. Having 303 in one game will do that for ya.
81.1% Completion Rate
Well, it’s only fair that I praise Kirk Cousins a bit for showing up on a prime-time game after I was so rough on him last week. Kirk has a reputation for turning in clunkers when he’s playing in the only game on, but that was not the case on Thanksgiving night. It was probably Kirk’s best game of the season, completing 30 of 37 passes and throwing for 299 yards, his second-highest total of the season, as well as the first time he’s thrown for 3 TDs all year. Cousins has the 4th most passing attempts in the league on the season, which is pretty necessary considering the Vikings' defense is giving up the most passing yards of any team in the league.
145 Receiving Yards
The player who’s sure to be the hottest waiver pickup of the week, Zay Jones, helped his team clinch a win over Baltimore in a really exciting finish. The Ravens-Jaguars game featured 4 touchdowns, 1 field goal, and two 2-point conversions all in the 4th quarter. Jones led the way for his team through the air, catching 11 passes for 145 yards and the all-important 2-point conversion at the end of the game. He caught two other passes on the final drive (5 total in the quarter) and finished as the WR5 on the week. He's only on 40% of Fleaflicker rosters at the moment, and that’s certain to shoot way up after waivers go through tomorrow night. Jones has now been targeted at least 8 times in 6 out of 10 games this season. This is his first time over 100 receiving yards this year, and only the second time in his career. He's starting to be a very important piece of a passing offense that is starting to click in Jacksonville.
76 Receiving Yards
There was only one TE this week who had more than 50% of Zay Jones’ yardage total. Josh Oliver of the Ravens topped the charts with 76 yards. He was also the TE2 on the week with 15.6 points, thanks to a touchdown late in the 4th quarter of their game. Oliver is rostered in only 1% of Fleaflicker leagues, and he is one of three TEs in the top 10 this week who are rostered in less than 10% of all leagues on Fleaflicker. If you extend the list a little, there are 6 of the top 15 TEs that were free agents in over 90% of Fleaflicker leagues when their game kicked off on Sunday. This is only the second time all season that Travis Kelce has finished outside of the top 3 TEs in fantasy points for the week. He finished 4th. What a bum. Time to drop him and pick up Josh Oliver.
0.38 Fantasy Points
Sometimes, a leader is hard to spot. Technically, Patrick Mahomes is ahead of Josh Allen in season-long fantasy points, but damn are they close. Mahomes has 288.80 points, while Allen has 288.42 points. That’s a difference of just 10 passing yards. Or 4 rushing yards. Hell, a touchdown would swing this wildly in someone’s favor. Both QBs have been at or near the top spot all season, and Allen really closed the gap with the best QB performance of the week in the very first game we got to watch this week. Allen threw two passing TDs and ran in another one, and added 78 rushing yards to top 30 fantasy points for the third time this year, but the first time since week 5. Allen doesn’t lead the league in any significant stat categories, showing that he has a well-rounded game. Oh wait, he leads the league in interceptions with 11 (tied with Davis Mills). I suppose that’s significant in a different way.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a one-week hiatus, and it was an eventful week for the rookies. 3 different rookie receivers topped 100 receiving yards in week 11. George Pickens topped 80, Christian Watson scored 2 more TDs, and Skyy Moore had his best game of the season. On the ground, Isiah Pacheco and James Cook each set season-highs for rushing yards and Kyren Williams saw his first meaningful action of the season. There were some duds in there as well, most notably Dameon Pierce and Garrett Wilson, but overall, it was a great week for the rookies.
Week 12 is an interesting one. It’s the only week from week 6 through week 14 where no NFL team is on a bye. That should change your approach a little bit this week. Guys who were viable starters when there were 4 teams on a bye might not make the cut with all 32 teams in action. Keep that in mind as you consider your lineup decisions for week 12.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into week 12…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Leonard Fournette has been ruled out for Sunday’s game, and that means White should be in line for a monster week. The Bucs have been making a concerted effort to get their run game going in recent weeks (38 rushing attempts against the Seahawks ahead of their bye), and the Browns are the worst run defense in the NFL. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and have coughed up the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to the position. White should operate as the workhorse back this week in that inviting matchup. His skill as a pass-catcher gives him high RB1 upside this week. He’s going be as chalky as it gets for DFS lineups (just $5,100 on DraftKings), and you should be finding a way to get him into your lineups if you have him.
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. LV): Walker struggled to run the ball against a stout Bucs defense in Germany ahead of the team’s bye last week, but he made up for it by pulling in 6 receptions for 55 yards. He’s now scored a dozen or more PPR points in 6 straight games and gets a juicy matchup with a bad Raiders’ defense this week. You weren’t going to sit Walker anyway, but you should feel confident firing him up against a Vegas team that allows the 4th-most RB points per game.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 12: @SF): Olave gets a tough matchup this week, and his overall target volume has taken a hit with Jarvis Landry back from injury, but the rookie has still topped 10 PPR points in 9 of 11 games this season, and the Saints are likely going to have to throw more this week as 9-point underdogs. As good as their overall defense has been, San Francisco has allowed the 13th-most wide receiver points per game. Olave should be a reasonable WR2 as usual this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 12: @Mia.): The Texans abysmal offense finally caught up with Pierce last week as he finished with just 17 scrimmage yards in easily his worst fantasy performance of the season. The Texans have decided to turn to Kyle Allen at QB this week and bench Davis Mills, but I wouldn’t expect the offense to look substantially different. They still want to run this offense through Dameon Pierce. Look for the rookie to handle at least 15 touches and see a few targets come his way. Kyle Allen has thrown to running backs at a high rate when he’s been a starter in the past, but he was throwing to very good receiving backs (Christian McCaffrey, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic). The Dolphins have allowed the 12th-fewest RB points per game this year, but they’ve been far from impenetrable up front. They’ve allowed the opposing lead back to run for 5+ yards per carry in 4 of their last 6 games, and all 4 of those backs found the end zone as well. Pierce is a decent RB2 option this week, even with the question marks about their QB play.
RB Brian Robinson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): Washington is a 4-point favorite this week, and Robinson has averaged 17 carries per game in Commander wins. He’s a non-factor in the passing game, but the Falcons rank 24th in run defense DVOA and have coughed up 6 rushing scores from inside their 5-yard line in the last 3 games. Robinson is a good bet for 60+ yards and a TD this week in a plus matchup. He’s a dicier option in PPR leagues than non-PPR, but he’s a very solid floor play RB3 this week.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been a solid WR defense, allowing the 8th-fewest wide receiver points per game, but they’ve been more vulnerable since the injury of Chidobe Awuzie early in their week 8 game with the Browns. Two of the best 4 WR performances the Bengals have allowed have come since Awuzie’s injury, and Burks has been the focal point of the Titans’ passing game since returning from IR. The rookie has earned 14 targets in the last two weeks and posted a season-best 111 receiving yards against the Packers last week. The Titans actively look for Burks when he's on the field – he was targeted on 38% of his routes last week - and the Titans may have to throw more than usual to keep pace with the Bengals’ offense this week. Burks is in play as an upside WR3 for all formats in this one.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): The Jets have made the switch from Zach Wilson to Mike White at QB for this week, and it remains up in the air what that means for their pass catchers. In his playing time last season, White heavily targeted the running backs and Elijah Moore, but Garrett Wilson wasn’t on that team and Elijah Moore wasn’t in the doghouse. Wilson’s route participation rate has been near 100% in each of the last 3 games, and he’s the receiver most likely to benefit if White provides a boost to the passing game. The Bears have limited wide receivers this year, allowing the 9th-fewest wide receiver points per game, but most of that can be attributed to negative game script in the first two months of the season. The Bears weren’t scoring points, and weren’t stopping the run, so teams didn’t have to throw on them. Since Justin Fields started to take off and the Bears started scoring points, it’s been a different story. 4 of the 5 best WR fantasy performances against the Bears this season have come in their past 4 games. Chicago ranks just 30th in pass defense DVOA. I’m betting on the talent and expecting Wilson to have a bounce-back game where he pushes for a WR2 finish. Keep an eye on the Bears’ injury report here though. If Fields is out, the Jets may not need to throw as much, and you should downgrade Wilson a bit.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 12: @Was.): You’ve got to have some fortitude to start any pass catcher playing in an Arthur Smith offense, but this feels like a good spot to do it. Washington’s defense should have success slowing down the Falcons’ rushing attack and forcing them to throw more than they want to. The Commanders rank 2nd in run defense DVOA, but just 16th in pass defense DVOA, and they allow the 10th-most WR points per game. With Kyle Pitts out, Washington’s defense should pay some extra attention to London, but London should earn a huge target share. He could hit 8+ targets for the first time since week 2. I like London’s chances to post his best yardage day since September. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 for me this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): There’s some risk with Pickens this week facing a Colts defense that allows the fewest WR points per game, but that number feels a bit misleading. The Colts rank just 18th in pass defense DVOA, and often the issue for opposing receivers is that the Colts often play from behind and opponents lean on the ground game. The Colts have trailed on the scoreboard on more than 50% of their defensive plays and been in the lead for just 31% of them. When teams have thrown to their receivers against them, they’ve had success. Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin each topped 100 yards against them in recent weeks, and Pickens has been at least on par with Diontae Johnson as the Steelers’ WR1 since the Chase Claypool trade. The Colts are favored by 2.5 points in this game, and the Steelers rank 6th in the NFL in pass rate when the game is close. Pickens should be a safe bet for 6+ targets, and that makes him an upside WR3/4 for me.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 12: @Car.): Dulcich hasn’t finished among the top-12 tight ends in either of the last two weeks, but I like his chances to get back there in Carolina this week. Dulcich continues to run a route on more than 80% of the Broncos’ dropbacks each week, and Denver will be without receiver Jerry Jeudy. The Panthers rank just 21st in pass defense DVOA, and 10 PPR points has pretty much meant a sure-fire top-12 TE finish. I like Dulcich’s chances to get there in what should be an ugly game.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): McBride hasn’t had a memorable rookie season so far, totaling 8 catches for 45 yards on the season, but he has a great chance to tally more yards this week than he did through the first 11 weeks combined. The Cardinals will be without Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and possibly Greg Dortch while getting Kyler Murray back. The Chargers allow the 3rd-most TE receiving yards per game, and the Cardinals will need someone beyond DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown to step up. McBride has a great chance to be that guy. As I mentioned with Dulcich above, tight end has been a wasteland for fantasy production in recent weeks. If you’re looking for a fill-in, you could do worse than McBride this week. View it as a slight downgrade for him if Greg Dortch is able to play.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): Pacheco has been on a tear in the last two weeks, piling up 189 yards on 31 carries against the Jaguars and Chargers, but that’s good enough to be just the PPR RB35 in points per game over that span. Pacheco doesn’t catch passes, and the Chiefs don’t give him the ball at the goal line, usually opting to throw instead when they get in close. The injury to CEH takes away a threat to those goal-line carries for Pacheco, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll get any carries in close this week. The Rams’ defense has been much better against rushers than the Jaguars or Chargers. They’ve allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game, and rank 5th in run defense DVOA. Pacheco is unlikely to finish as a top-30 RB this week without finding his way into the end zone for the first time since week 1. The Rams have given up just 5 running back rushing scores all year. If you think Pacheco adds to that number this week, start him. If you don’t, you should probably sit him.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 12: @Was.): Allgeier has been useful as a fill-in during bye weeks, but he’s carried the ball fewer than 10 times in back-to-back games with Cordarrelle Patterson back at full strength. The Commanders rank 2nd in run defense DVOA, and all 32 teams are in action this week, so Allgeier is unlikely to post a useful game Sunday for fantasy purposes on a limited workload. He’s a low ceiling RB4 this week.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Watson has been on fire in the last two weeks with FIVE touchdowns against the Cowboys & Titans, but I’m not sure I’d go back to that well again this week. The Eagles boast a great secondary that has allowed the 10th-fewest WR points per game, and they’ve allowed a total of just 1 wide receiver touchdown in their last 5 games. They also don’t often get beat by the deep ball – Philly has allowed just 5 completions of 30+ yards for the season. Watson has still only hit 50 receiving yards once this season, and if the Eagles keep him out of the end zone, you’re probably not going to be happy with his output this week.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): Dotson has returned from injury to a different offense than the one he left. Taylor Heinicke only has eyes for Terry McLaurin in the passing game. Scary Terry has a 31.6% target share with Heinicke under center, and it’s going to take time for Dotson to carve out a role again. The matchup this week is great – Atlanta allows the 2nd-most WR points per game – but Dotson has been targeted just 3 times in his first two games back. His playing time increased in his 2nd game back, and should increase again this week, but I’d look at other options in season-long leagues. He does make for an interesting DFS option this week in the great matchup, with a price tag of just $4,000 on DraftKings.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 12: @Cle.): The return of Cam Brate did prove to be a problem for Cade Otton in week 10. Otton was in a route on right around 90% of the team dropbacks in weeks 8 & 9 without Brate, and that dropped all the way to 29% in week 10 with Brate back. He still managed to post a 3-35 line on 3 targets in that game, but that was against the worst tight end defense in the NFL. The Browns allow the 5th-fewest tight end points per game. Otton is not a top-15 option at the position this week.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): With all 32 teams in action this week, Pickett is just a mid-to-low end QB2 against the Colts. Indy has been just a middling QB defense, allowing the 18th-most points per game to the position, but Pickett has finished higher than the QB16 just once all year. He is coming off his two best fantasy games of the year, but it’ll likely take rushing production for Pickett to hit any kind of ceiling. The Colts have not allowed any QB this year to throw for 3 TDs or 300 yards in a game, and they’ve held 5 of the last 8 QBs they’ve faced below 200 passing yards. Pickett does have rushing upside – he’s averaged 30.5 rushing yards per game in his past 4 starts – but that upside is just enough to mean you could play him as a QB2 if you need to.
RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): With Chuba Hubbard back on the field, Blackshear has played fewer than 20% of the offensive snaps in each of the past two weeks. That’s not enough work to rely on him when he faces a Denver defense that allows the 11th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Even with Khalil Herbert sidelined, Ebner was on the field for just 15 snaps and handled 6 offensive touches. David Montgomery is the workhorse here, and 6-8 touches against a Jets’ defense that ranks 8th in run defense DVOA isn’t going to cut it if you’re looking for a fill-in starter. Ebner has never averaged as much as 3.5 yards per carry in an NFL game.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): In case you missed the news on Saturday, Warren has been ruled out for Monday’s game with the Colts.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): A plethora of injuries to Kansas City’s WR group earned Moore more playing time last week, and he posted his best performance of the season with 5 catches for 63 yards on a 46% route participation rate. It’s troubling that even with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman sidelined, and Kadarius Toney out early with a hamstring injury, that Moore still played behind Justin Watson, who posted a 98% route participation rate. JuJu has cleared the concussion protocols and will return this week, so I’d view last week’s output and playing time as the ceiling for Moore in this one. The Rams have been awful against wide receivers this year, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position, but Moore’s upside remains limited as he’s just not getting enough playing time. He’s a WR5 for me this week.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): Okonkwo has pulled in a 30+ yard catch in each of the last 3 games, but in each game, it’s been his only catch. The Titans just don’t throw enough to trust their TE2 to put up meaningful fantasy production. If you play him, you’re just hoping for another long catch, and hoping that it’s a touchdown this time.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 12: @Jax.): Likely saw just one target and played only 32% of the offensive snaps last Sunday with Mark Andrews back from injury. It’ll likely take another Andrews injury to make Isaiah Likely viable for fantasy lineups again.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Whether the guy under center is Matt Ryan or Sam Ehlinger, Jelani Woods remains no more than a TD dart throw. He hasn’t pulled in more than 2 catches in any game this season. The Steelers have allowed just two TE scores all year, and Woods is one of three tight ends who could score one for the Colts, so divide those slim chances of a TD by 3 for Woods.
TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Turner returned from injury last week but saw just one target come his way with Logan Thomas and John Bates both active. Atlanta allows the 10th-most TE points per game, but Turner won’t be the beneficiary this week.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bryce Perkins, LAR (Wk. 12: @KC): Perkins isn’t technically a rookie, but his first NFL snaps came this year, and he’s in line to start this week with Matthew Stafford and John Wolford both injured. Wolford will be active, but Perkins will get the starting nod. He boasts serious rushing upside that could push him into the mid-QB2 range even if he isn’t effective as a passer. Perkins ran for nearly 1,700 yards and 20 TDs in his last 2 college seasons, and he had 5 designed rushing attempts in just 26 snaps last week spelling Wolford. If your QB2 has been derailed by the benchings of Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, and Baker Mayfield, you could do worse than Perkins as a replacement this week. The Chiefs have allowed 25+ rushing yards to 3 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced and have allowed the 7th-most QB points per game.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 12: @KC): The Rams unexpectedly waived Darrell Henderson this week, leaving their backfield to Cam Akers and Kyren Williams. Akers will serve as the lead back on early downs, but Kyren should be the guy on passing downs. Kyren handled just 26% of the team rushing attempts last week, but he handled 100% of the 2-minute snaps and was in a route on 65% of the Rams’ passing dropbacks. The Rams need pass catchers with Cooper Kupp still sidelined and Allen Robinson at less than full strength, and the Chiefs allow the 2nd-most running back receptions and receiving yards per game. There’s a ton of risk here with LA starting Bryce Perkins at QB. The Rams haven’t thrown to their backs a lot this season, and Perkins is more likely to use his own legs as the check-down option than Matt Stafford would be. If you’re desperate for RB help in a PPR league, Williams could provide some unexpected upside this week, and will have more value when/if Matt Stafford returns. He’s worth a shot as a cheap DFS lineup option this week as well.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 12: @Ari.): Spiller’s stats haven’t been overwhelming in recent weeks, but his playing time is steadily increasing. He has now taken over most of the backup RB role behind Austin Ekeler in this offense, playing 16 snaps and handling 6 touches last weekend to Sony Michel’s 5 snaps and 1 touch. Arizona represents another opportunity for Spiller’s playing time to increase. The Cardinals rank just 23rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-most RB points per game. The Cardinals have been watching their season slip away in recent weeks and have given up 30+ team points in 4 of their last 5 games. I like Spiller’s chances at 8-10 touches in a game where the Chargers should have a positive game script, and I wouldn’t rule out his first career TD. Spiller is a guy I like in limited slate DFS lineups this week.
RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): The Cards will get Kyler Murray back this week, but they will be without Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and possibly Greg Dortch. Marquise Brown will be playing his first game in more than a month after a stint on IR, and Arizona is facing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. It would make sense to lean on the ground game more than usual. Ingram is the clear RB2 behind Conner with Darrel Williams still on IR. Even if Arizona runs their normal offensive approach, Keaontay should see a handful of touches, but if they do lean more heavily on the ground game, 10+ touches isn’t out the question. The Chargers rank 30th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Ingram is more of a DFS play than a season-long one. He costs just $2,200 on DraftKings for showdown contests, and he could substantially outperform that price tag.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Pierce finally started seeing some targets come his way again last week, and he played more snaps and ran more routes than Parris Campbell for the first time all year. He didn’t exactly make the most of his opportunities, with just 3 catches for 28 yards on 8 targets, but he gets a much better matchup this week and he showed a great rapport with Matt Ryan earlier in the season. The Steelers have allowed the most WR points per game, so Pierce is in play as a WR4 option this week despite scoring just 9.1 total PPR points in the last 3 games. He costs just $3,500 on DraftKings this week.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Bell isn’t an option for week 12, but Deshaun Watson is eligible to return next week, so Bell is worth a speculative add in deeper leagues in case Watson’s return sparks a late-season surge from the rookie. We’ve already seen signs of an increasing role, as Bell has been above a 50% route participation rate in each of the last 3 games, and he’s earned 5 targets in each of the last two. If this passing game does get a boost from Watson’s return, Bell is likely to be a viable fantasy option down the stretch.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
We’re back to full strength!
Well, at least for one week.
For the first time in weeks all 32 teams will be playing this week. Thanks to a full day’s worth of football action on Thursday, all teams will need to be on duty on Sunday! With that comes the chance for more points so let’s cushion our lead in the season long pools!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! To take a short break from the football mentality, I do want to let you know that I am thankful to those that follow along with me and read my stuff – thank you!
OK…back to FOOTBALL!
Week 12 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – SAN FRANCISCO over New Orleans – To beat the 9ers you’re gonna need an offense that can at least try to keep up…that’s not the Saints.
15 – PHILADELPHIA over Green Bay – At least Packer fans will have a win against the Cowboys to hand on to this season.
14 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Rams – Super Bowl preview it is not this year.
13 – MIAMI over Houston – If they set an over/under just for Miami’s points…whatever it is, take the over.
12 – Buffalo over DETROIT – Not having actually looked this, I do feel confident that the Bills could very well be the first non-Lions team to win in Detroit in back-to-back weeks
11 – MINNESOTA over New England – You know how I’ve mentioned that we remove our worst week from season-long pools? Yeah, Vikings will just remove last week from their schedules.
10 – Baltimore over JACKSONVILLE – This game will give you a sense that Lamar is getting a little jealous of the Just Fields attention. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that LAMAR JACKSON WILL RUSH FOR 100 YARDS.
9 – NEW YORK JETS over Chicago – Expect another solid Fields performance (if he plays) and another loss Bears fans – the perfect combination for a team in rebuild mode.
8 – WASHINGTON over Atlanta – This game will happen…there you go
7 – CLEVELAND over Tampa Bay – Welp, thanks for stopping by, Jacoby…
6 – DALLAS over New York Giants – Who knew that this would actually turn into a game worth being excited for during Thanksgiving dinner?
5 – Los Angeles Chargers over ARIZONA – I’m surprised I haven’t started watching the in-season Cardinals Hard Knocks yet, this seems like a team full of entertaining locker room drama!
4 – INDIANAPOLIS over Pittsburgh – Could Jonathan Taylor be coming back to a Jonathan Taylor level?
3 – SEATTLE over Las Vegas – As a Raider fan, the though of at least making it a game in Seattle would make me happy.
2 – TENNESSEE over Cincinnati – This is just going to be fun to watch.
1 – CAROLINA over Denver – Safe to say that the Panthers will rally behind (spins wheel) Sam Darnold!