Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Random observation here …
We have a bit of an anomaly this week. Throughout most of the season we have to deal with bye weeks. Whether it is our fantasy teams or not being able to get more points in a week of a confidence pool, we have to deal with a stretch of the season where someone won’t be playing.
This week though, in the heart of it all, guess who has a bye week … … … bye weeks!
Yes, all 32 teams will be taking the field this weekend. It’s a good thing, too – after the last couple of weeks, we need more points!
Week 8 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – MIAMI over New England – The Patriots won a game they shouldn’t have last week – won’t happen two weeks in a row.
15 – BUFFALO over Tampa Bay – Buffalo will happily use the national stage for a “get right” game
14 – DETROIT over Las Vegas – Fire Josh McDaniels
13 – SEATTLE over Cleveland – The Brows just aren’t allowed to be on a roll for this long – it ends in Seattle
12 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – Khalil Mack had six sacks against the Raiders, a former team, a few weeks ago…just gonna leave that there
11 – Kansas City over DENVER – The only reason this is not the 16 point game is that its in Denver
10 – SAN FRANCISCO over Cincinnati – Keep an eye on the Brock Purdy situation – if he can’t go, drop the 9ers way down…maybe even take the Bengals.
9 – Baltimore over ARIZONA – The Cardinals have made it a little harder to say this – My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE CARDINALS WILL HAVE THE FIRST PICK IN THE 2024 NFL DRAFT.
8 – DALLAS over Los Angeles Rams – Micah Parsons vs Aaron Donald … enjoy!
7 – New Orleans over INDIANAPOLIS – I see a big game from Derek Carr here – at least 300 yards.
6 – Minnesota over GREEN BAY – To quote the great Dennis Green – Jordan Love is indeed who we thought he was.
5 – CAROLINA over Houston – Bryce Young was just waiting to play #2 pick CJ Stroud for the first time to get his first win … … … is the denial that he is going with.
4 – Atlanta over TENNESSEE – I can’t really figure the Falcons out this season…but in a good way,
3 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – Hunch…and hunches stay low on our list.
2 – PITTSBURGH over Jacksonville – This just seems like a game the Steelers can pull out.
1 – NEW YORK JETS over New York Giants – I’d give the standard “New York Bragging Rights” comment here, but is anyone in New York bragging over either team?
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- Written by David Biggs
Take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Last season (2022), my in-season rankings ended up #6 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com. Pay attention to all of the player news & injury reports that come out throughout the week and good luck!
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 8 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 was one of those weeks that set offense in the NFL back by a decade. Offensive output was already trending down this season, but it hit new lows in week 6, with 13 of the 15 games on the schedule finishing with 40 or fewer total points scored. No NFL week last season had more than 9 games of 40 or less. Usually, it takes terrible weather to get the kinds of scores we saw last week, but this time it was mostly just abysmal offense. The low game scores also led to lower fantasy scoring for the week. Look back at your fantasy scoreboard through the season…I’d bet the league high score for week 6 was 20 points lower than it’s been in any other week this season.
The rookie crop was affected just like everyone else, as the 3 rookies who have been the most reliable all season (Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, and Sam LaPorta) each had their worst, or in Bijan’s case, 2nd-worst, fantasy game of the season. There were a few bright spots as all of Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, and Josh Downs found the end zone, and tight end Michael Mayer finished as the PPR TE5 for the week, but there were plenty of duds too. Emari Demercado, Quentin Johnston, and Kendre Miller were all non-factors last weekend after playing bigger roles in previous weeks.
Things only get tougher in week 7. Injuries have continued to pile up, and this week is one of two this season where 6 teams are on byes. You’re likely going to be starting some players you wouldn’t usually start, and you might be looking at some rookies who have been riding your bench. Keep that bye situation in mind as you read through these rookie outlooks for the week. The limited options have bumped some rookies to the right side of the borderline, and bumped others into consideration who normally shouldn’t be on your radar.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s talk about what to expect in week 7:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 7: @TB): Bijan still hasn’t shown off the ceiling we were hoping for from him this season, but his receiving work continues to buoy his weekly floor. Robinson has tallied at least 10 PPR points in every game this season, and he’s logged 14+ touches in every game as well. The Bucs have been stingy to running backs, allowing the 9th-fewest points per game to the position, but Robinson remains a top-12 play for week 7, even in this tougher matchup.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Nacua put up his worst fantasy game of the season in week 6, but he still saw 7 targets and faces off this week with a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game. The Steelers have been much more vulnerable to slot receivers than guys on the perimeter, so it may set up as a better matchup for Cooper Kupp than for Puka, but you’ll likely be kicking yourself if you sit the rookie this week because of that. He should still see enough volume to be a solid WR2, especially with the Rams’ backfield in flux due to injuries.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 7: @Bal.): LaPorta’s performance was a bit disappointing in week 6 as he tallied just 4 catches for 36 yards and finished as the PPR TE17 for the week, but he was targeted a whopping 11 times for over 100 intended air yards. He was facing a tough matchup with the Bucs and gets another tough matchup with Baltimore this week (the Ravens allow the fewest TE points per game), but very few tight ends have the kind of weekly upside that LaPorta offers. He’s still a safe top-8 TE option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Gibbs missed the last two games with injury but returns at the right time with David Montgomery now sidelined by a rib issue. Craig Reynolds handled the bulk of the work in spot duty last week after Monty went out, but Gibbs was on the field for nearly 60% of the offensive snaps the last time Montgomery missed a game. I’d expect a similar workload for him here. Baltimore isn’t an easy matchup. They rank 7th in FTN’s run defense DVOA and have allowed the 15th-fewest RB points per game, but a player with Gibbs’ skills in a lead back role this week is a top-20 option no matter the opponent. You can sit him if you’ve got multiple top-15 backs ahead of him, but if not, you should be firing Gibbs up in week 7.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Keep a close eye on the injury report here. Roschon still isn’t practicing due to a concussion suffered in week 5, but this would be a great opportunity for a big day if he’s able to get cleared in time. The Raiders rank 27th in run defense DVOA, and the Bears should be inclined to lean on the run game to help Tyson Bagent in his first NFL start. Johnson would likely split the workload with D’Onta Foreman if he’s able to return, but that could still mean 12-15 touches in a good matchup. If Johnson plays, he’s an RB3 option this week.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): The Ravens’ new-look Todd Monken passing game hasn’t exactly lived up to what it was billed to be, but it has succeeded in making Flowers a consistent weekly WR2/3 option. Flowers has reached 50 scrimmage yards in all 6 games this season and double-digit PPR points in 5 of them. Detroit boasts the best defense the franchise has had in years, ranking 5th in pass defense DVOA, but I wouldn’t let that chase me off of starting Flowers as a WR3 this week. The Lions have allowed the 13th-most WR points per game, and Zay has earned a 24% or higher target share in 5 of 6 games this year. There’s no reason to avoid Flowers this week if you’ve been using him up until now.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 7: vs. SF): In the Vikings first game without Justin Jefferson in the lineup, Addison was in a route on 100% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks and managed to salvage a lackluster receiving day with a touchdown, finishing with 3-28-1 on 5 targets. It’s worth noting that the Vikings played largely from ahead, and that Cousins logged his 2nd-lowest pass attempt total of the season. The Vikings are a touchdown underdog this week and should return to a pass-first game script against the 49ers. Minnesota has thrown the ball at least 44 times in all 4 of their losses this year. There’s a chance they rein in the extreme passing volume with Jefferson out, but I’d still expect them to push towards 40 attempts in this one. That means Addison will likely see 7-8 targets, and while this matchup looks tough on paper, the 49ers have allowed the 6th-most WR receptions per game. They’ve given up 14+ PPR points to all of Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Michael Wilson, Marquise Brown, and Amari Cooper this season. There is some risk that the 49ers will completely stifle the Vikings’ offense in this game, but I’d lean toward trusting Addison to put up 50+ yards and find his way to a WR3 day.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 7: @Sea.): Wilson has now topped 50 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games even though he made us wait until the end of the game to get there in week 6. Wilson finished with 3-63 on 4 targets against the Rams last weekend, and 2 of the catches and 45 of the yards came in the last 5 minutes of the game. We won’t fault him for that though. Wilson’s production profile is a big help in deciding when to start him. Every catch he’s posted this season has come against zone coverage, and the Seahawks play zone coverage at the 2nd-highest rate in the league (86.5%). The Cards are 8-point underdogs and should be throwing plenty, so Wilson should be in line for another game with 50+ yards against a defense that plays to his strengths. Seattle has allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game this year.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): Rice has tallied double-digit PPR points in 4 out of 6 games this year despite not logging a route participation rate higher than 51% in any game this season. He’s been right around 50% in 3 of the last 4 games, and that kind of playing time probably means another WR3 finish against a Chargers’ defense that allows the most WR points per game and ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA. I’d like to see Rice’s playing time increase before we start treating him as an every-week starter, but I like him this week in a plus matchup with 6 teams on byes.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 7: @Den.): Musgrave returned last week from the concussion he suffered in week 5 and earned a 24% target share in his first game back, and now he faces a Denver defense that has allowed the most TE fantasy points in the league. The Broncos gave up 20+ PPR points to Travis Kelce and Cole Kmet this season, and 10+ to both Logan Thomas and Tyler Conklin. The Packers’ offense would prefer to be run-heavy, and the Broncos’ run defense is just as bad as the pass defense, so passing volume could be low for Green Bay this week. I think Musgrave’s role in the passing game is big enough that I like his chances to overcome that low volume and finish as a top-12 tight end this week with the limited slate of games.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): With just 26 teams in action this week, every starting QB is at least a borderline option in superflex leagues. That includes both rookie signal callers getting the nod in the Raiders-Bears tilt on Sunday, though both of those guys are close to the bottom of the list of the 26 starting options. The Raiders have played coy about whether it will be O’Connell or the veteran Brian Hoyer under center for them this week, but Raiders blogs are all insisting it’ll be O’Connell. If that proves to be true, I’d prioritize him over Bears’ starter Tyson Bagent if you’re deciding between the two. The Raiders have better weapons than the Bears, and a better defense. O’Connell already showed that he knows how to get the ball to those weapons, dishing out 63% of the targets in his first start to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. He threw the ball reasonably well in that game but was hampered by turnovers. He was intercepted once and lost two fumbles. Again, I wouldn’t start O’Connell out of anything more than desperation, but there’s a chance he won’t kill you against a Chicago defense that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-most QB points per game.
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): On the other side of the rookie vs rookie QB matchup, Bagent’s outlook isn’t quite as rosy as O’Connell’s. While the Bears’ defense has been among the worst in the league, the Raiders have at least been competent, ranking 16th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 12th-fewest QB points per game. Bagent put up crooked passing numbers in college at D-II Shepherd University, but he won’t find NFL defenses to be nearly as forgiving, and he offers little upside as a runner. Bagent rushed for 25+ yards just twice last season in college. The rookie had some success moving the ball in relief of Justin Fields last Sunday, but he averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and turned the ball over twice in only a quarter and a half of action. Like O’Connell, Bagent is an ‘only if you’re desperate’ superflex option this week. He might be my 26th ranked starting QB for the week (out of 26).
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. GB): As expected, the Broncos backfield devolved into a 3-man rotation in week 6 with Javonte Williams back in the lineup, but the split wasn’t nearly as bad for McLaughlin as it could’ve been. Samaje Perine handled the snaps in the 2-minute offense, but Javonte and McLaughlin split the rest of the work between just the two of them. Javonte handled 10 rushing attempts and McLaughlin handled 7 carries and 2 targets. That level of volume will make it hard to start either back with much confidence going forward, but they do get a favorable matchup in week 7. Green Bay has allowed the 5th-most running back points per game. They rank 26th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-most running back receptions per game and 5th-most running back receiving yards as well. 8-10 touches are probably all you can count on from McLaughlin this week, but that could be enough for a useful fantasy week if you’re stuck due to byes/injuries.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 7: @Sea.): There was a lot of hype around Demercado last week after James Conner went on IR, but his outing was a huge letdown to fantasy players who were counting on him. He put up 17 scrimmage yards on just 3 touches and was outproduced by both Keaontay Ingram and Damien Williams. Something that may have been overlooked in the box score though is that Demercado led the backfield in snaps played and ran twice as many routes as Ingram and Dame combined. He played nearly all the 2-minute offense and long down & distance snaps. The Cardinals are 8-point underdogs this week, so they should be throwing plenty, and Demercado could lead the backfield in snaps and routes again. The question is will that turn into touches this week? There’s a chance that it does – the Seahawks have allowed the 9th-most RB receptions and 11th-most RB receiving yards per game - but this backfield is still too messy to count on more than a handful of PPR points out of Demercado.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Miller gets listed on the borderline this week because it’s such a limited slate of options, but he logged just 3 touches in a game with mostly neutral game script last weekend. This week’s contest should have a similarly neutral script with the Saints favored by a point. Kendre will likely see just a handful of touches spelling Alvin Kamara, and that role could get reduced even further with Jamaal Williams returning this week.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): The Seahawks got tackle Charles Cross back last weekend, and that led to them playing more 11-personnel than they have all season. JSN logged a season-high 81% route participation rate and posted his best fantasy game of the year with 4 catches for 48 yards on 5 targets. He also saw his highest aDOT of the season, but that aDOT was still just 7.4 yards, and he was only the PPR WR45 for the week. Arizona is a good WR matchup, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 7th-most WR points per game, but game script should allow the Seahawks to throw a bit less than last week. Seattle is favored by 8 points in this game. Smith-Njigba should be in line for a similar 4-40 kind of game against the Cardinals, and that’s just not a line that will win you your matchup. Keep an eye on the Seahawks’ injury report this week if you’re considering JSN. Both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are currently listed as questionable. If either player sits, it would be wheels up for JSN as a WR3 for week 7.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 7: @Den.): Reed gets a favorable matchup on paper against a Denver defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, but he also saw his lowest route participation rate of the season (59%) and just 2 targets in Green Bay’s last game with Christian Watson closer to full strength, and that was in a game with no Aaron Jones. The return of Jones this week muddies the passing game picture even further for the rookie, and the Packers would prefer to be a run-first team when they can be, and this week shapes up as a week where they can be. Denver is abysmal against the run too. With a limited role and limited team passing volume, this looks like a week where you should avoid Reed.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Palmer was finally able to somewhat emerge from the shadows behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last week and earned a whopping 7 targets against the Lions. He caught just 2 of those targets for 47 yards, but it was his first game all year with more than 3 targets and more than 20 receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Evans and Godwin still combined for 47% of the team targets, and Palmer logged a lower route participation rate in week 6 than he did in the two previous games. Tampa was playing from behind all game and had their highest pass attempt total of the season, opening the door for Palmer’s big target day. Game script should be a bit more neutral this week, with Tampa favored by 2.5 points, so I wouldn’t expect the same overall passing volume, or the same target share for Palmer. It was a good sign to see him earn substantial targets in week 6, but I’d expect him back in the 3-4 target range this week. Atlanta allows the 5th-fewest WR points per game, and Evans and Godwin are the guys who are going to score those points, if anyone.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Downs scored his first career TD last Sunday and has now earned 20 targets in the two full games Gardner Minshew has played, but this Cleveland defense is going to be a whole different challenge for the Colts’ passing game. Downs has averaged just 7.9 yards per catch on throws from Minshew and has made his living on short throws, and Cleveland ranks 2nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on short throws and hasn’t allowed more than 15 completions against them in any game this season. It’s going to be very difficult for Downs to compile his way to a useful PPR day against this defense unless they have an out-of-character game, and I wouldn’t count on Gardner Minshew to be the QB who solves this matchup. I’d keep the rookie parked on the bench this week even with so many players out on byes.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Mayer took another big step forward in week 6. He followed up a season-best game in week 5 by essentially doubling his production in week 6. Mayer is now the clear lead tight end for the Raiders after logging a 67% route participation rate and dropping a TE5 PPR finish on the Patriots. Mayer is on the streamer tight end radar going forward, but Aidan O’Connell at QB this week would make me lean against using him even in a good matchup. The Bears have allowed 6+ receptions to a tight end in 4 of the last 5 games, so Mayer is probably a top-15 option this week. Just know there’s a built-in risk if O’Connell gets the starting nod.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 7: @NE): Kincaid may return this week, but he’s still reached 30 receiving yards just once in 5 games played and faces a New England defense that has been in the top-12 at limiting tight end fantasy points. Kincaid’s production has been hurt by the way defenses are treating the Bills’ two tight end sets. Buffalo was in 12-personnel at the 2nd highest rate in the league during the first 5 weeks of the season but opposing defenses have treated it like a 3-wide set, usually lining up in nickel or dime against it rather than a base defense. The extra defensive backs on the field have removed the mismatches that Kincaid would get against base defenses. The Bills could force teams out of nickel and dime by running the ball successfully from those looks, but instead they rank 28th in the league in expected points added per rush when in 12-personnel. That’s going to make it hard to force defenses into base fronts and hard for Kincaid to increase his production going forward. I’d view him as a TE2 for this week.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 7: vs. NO): Bigsby is yet to reach 15 scrimmage yards in a game this season. He played his highest snap share of the season in week 6 but logged just 4 touches in the process. You’re just praying for a TD if you plug him into lineups, and the Saints are yet to allow an opposing running back to reach the end zone.
RB Christopher Brooks, MIA (Wk. 7: @Phi.): I was hopeful Brooks could pile up a useful fantasy week in garbage time last Sunday, but the Panthers took an early lead and limited just how much opportunity Brooks would get. He did see a handful of late carries in week 6 and broke off a highlight-reel angry run for 28 yards, but that run accounted for all his rushing yards on the day, and he was carted off with an ankle injury before the game was over. The team has called his injury ‘week-to-week’ so I’d be surprised if he’s able to play in week 7, but I wouldn’t consider him if he’s able to go. There won’t be much garbage time in a tough matchup with the Eagles, and Philly ranks 2nd in run defense DVOA.
RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Atl.): Tucker was active and played 11 special teams snaps in week 6, but he seems to for now have fallen behind Ke’Shawn Vaughn for the RB2 role. Tucker didn’t play a single offensive snap against the Lions while Vaughn handled 6 carries and 2 targets behind Rachaad White. Tucker is off the fantasy radar for now.
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Mitchell was activated off IR in week 6, but he didn’t play a single offensive snap. He’s not worth a roster spot.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 7: @Chi.): Tucker had a breakout game of sorts in week 6, putting up 61 scrimmage yards on 3 touches while logging a season-high 55% route participation rate. He operated as the team’s WR3 in this game and seemed to have an especially strong connection with backup QB Brian Hoyer. Both of his receptions in this game came from Hoyer, as did another target that resulted in a defensive pass interference penalty. The playing time is a great sign for Tucker, but the problem is that reports have indicated that the Raiders will turn to rookie Aidan O’Connell at QB rather than the veteran Hoyer with Jimmy Garoppolo unable to play. O’Connell leaned heavily on Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs in his first start, and I’d expect he’ll do the same in this matchup. The Bears do rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so there’s a chance that the speedy Tucker gets loose for a deep ball in this one, but I’d err on the side of benching him in fantasy lineups.
WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 7: vs. GB): It pains me to have to keep listing Mims here when we’ve seen the kind of tantalizing upside he possesses, but the Broncos continue to stubbornly keep him off the field. Mims has run just 19 routes in the last two games and garnered just 1 target that he turned into a 4-yard catch. Sean Payton was asked about getting him onto the field more, and Payton mentioned that it’s difficult with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton ahead of him, seemingly not realizing that Brandon Johnson is also playing comfortably ahead of Mims. The Packers do rank 26th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so there is a sliver of hope that Mims gets loose for a deep ball in this game, but it's just not something you can count on. A goose egg is entirely possible.
WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 7: @KC): The injury to Mike Williams hasn’t resulted in the boost for the rookie Johnston that we hoped it would. There is a strong chance that the Chargers will have to throw quite a bit to keep pace with the Chiefs this week as 5.5-point underdogs, but Johnston hasn’t hit 20 receiving yards in a game yet and has maxed out at 3 targets. At some point those numbers should get better, but we’ve seen nothing to indicate that it happens this week. Fellow rookie Derius Davis got some gadget usage in week 4 in the first game after the Williams injury, but in week 6 after their bye, he had fallen behind Keelan Doss on the depth chart. Davis ran just one route on Monday night.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Douglas was cleared from his concussion this week, so he should return, and he’s shown an ability to earn targets when he’s on the field (27% target per route run rate), but I don’t really trust any parts of the New England passing game to produce against a Buffalo defense that ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA.
WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 7: @Min.): Bell shouldn’t be in consideration even if Deebo Samuel sits in this game. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this season.
TE Brenton Strange, JAX (Wk. 7: @NO): This is my obligatory ‘mention a rookie tight end because he scored a TD last week’ installment for this week. Strange saw a season-high snap share in week 6 as the Jaguars used more 12-personnel to cover for the absence of Zay Jones, and he totaled 2 catches for 27 yards and a TD on 3 targets. That was good enough to finish as the PPR TE11 in a low-scoring fantasy week, but he ran just 10 routes and shouldn’t be counted on to repeat that without a jump in playing time. He’s not a realistic consideration in lineups.
Rookies on Byes in Week 7: QB Bryce Young, CAR, QB CJ Stroud, HOU, QB Will Levis, TEN, RB Tyjae Spears, TEN, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR, WRs Tank Dell & Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Andre Iosivas, CIN, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Darnell Washington, PIT
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Malik Cunningham, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Cunningham isn’t someone you can plug into lineups this week, but he’s an intriguing bench stash in deeper superflex leagues now that he’s been anointed as the Pats’ QB2. The New England offense has been a mess, and Bill Belichick’s talk about the offense needing a full restart makes me think it might only take a couple more duds out of Mac Jones before they’re willing to try Cunningham as the starter. In the meantime, the Patriots will probably look to get him involved through sub packages and gadget plays that allow him to show off his playmaking ability. Cunningham was a true dual threat QB at Louisville, throwing for over 9,000 yards and rushing for over 3,000 in his college career, and we know how impactful that kind of dual threat skill can be for fantasy, especially in a season where passing stats are down as a whole. He shouldn’t be on the wire in most superflex dynasty leagues.
RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Evans has a chance to be thrust into a major role this week against a Pittsburgh defense that’s allowed the 7th-most RB points per game. Ronnie Rivers was placed on IR this week and Kyren Williams is expected to miss multiple games, leaving the Rams with a huge void at running back. Evans would be the next man up, but they also elevated Royce Freeman from the practice squad and signed Darrell Henderson and Myles Gaskin as well. How they divvy up the work this week is anyone’s guess, but I like Evans’ chances of performing well if he gets an extended opportunity. Darrell Henderson has familiarity with the offense, and Sean McVay does have a history of giving a big workload to a veteran back signed off the street. In 2018 when Todd Gurley was injured, the Rams signed CJ Anderson and gave him 87 touches over a 4-game stretch. Anderson did have a more extensive track record of 20+ touch workloads than Darrell Henderson does, so I’m not sure I’d expect quite that same kind of role here. The most likely outcome is that Henderson and Evans split touches this week until a hot hand emerges. I’d have a hard time plugging either player into lineups this week, but since this is a multi-week absence for the starting backs, both are worth waiver pickups if you’re struggling for RB starters.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Charbonnet played his lowest snap share of the season in week 5 and logged just 4 touches, but his busiest games of the year were Seattle’s two multi-score victories. He saw 8+ opportunities (carries + targets) and put up at least 40 scrimmage yards in both games that Seattle won by more than a touchdown. This week Seattle is an 8-point favorite, and the Cardinals rank 29th in run defense DVOA and allow the 3rd-most RB points per game. Kenneth Walker III should be a slam dunk RB1 in this matchup, but Charbonnet should see enough work in this plus matchup to have some sneaky RB3 upside if you’re in a pinch due to bye weeks or injuries.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Was.): Don’t look now, but Hyatt has now logged 3 straight games with the 2nd-most routes run among New York’s wide receivers and gets a very favorable matchup against a porous Commanders secondary. Hyatt’s production hasn’t really matched his boost in playing time, but if there was ever a week to throw a dart at that happening, this is it. The Commanders have allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game and rank 24th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, coughing up 22 completions of 20+ yards and 6 completions of 50+ yards in just 6 games. They’ve given up deep balls to ancillary targets like Marvin Mims, Brandon Johnson, Rondale Moore and Gabe Davis. Hyatt is still just a boom-or-bust option, especially if Daniel Jones is back under center, but this feels like a week where we could see a boom. Hyatt costs just $2,000 for showdown contests on DraftKings. That’s a lower price tag than teammate Isaiah Hodgins has, even though Hyatt ran 4 times as many routes as Hodgins last week.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. LV): With Chase Claypool shipped off to Miami and Equanimeous St. Brown on IR, Scott has moved up into the WR3 role in the offense. He logged a 66% route participation rate in week 6 and seemed to have a rapport with backup QB Tyson Bagent. Bagent attempted 14 passes in relief of Justin Fields against the Vikings. 6 of those went to DJ Moore, but Scott was his 2nd-most targeted receiver with 3 targets. That doesn’t include a throw in Scott’s direction that resulted in a 36-yard pass interference penalty. The rookie finished the game with just 12 yards, but if Bagent continues looking in his direction this week against a middling Raiders’ defense, Scott could be an intriguing option in what should be a messy showdown DFS contest with two rookie signal callers.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
All due respect to the great Willie Beaman, we have now seen the true Any Given Sunday.
In one week, we saw two undefeated teams go down in games that they should have easily won, plus a third top team that escaped thanks to a bad no-call! Makes it hard to have confidence in some of these teams!
So, that being said…let’s show some confidence to 13 teams ?
Week 7 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
13 – SEATTLE over Arizona – Look for the Seahawks to make a statement in this one.
12 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Pittsburgh – Hard to have any faith in the Steelers after a cross-country trip.
11 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Chargers – Pretty sure you won’t be picking the Chiefs to lose against the division anytime soon. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE CHIEFS WILL NOT LOSE A GAME AGAINST THE AFC WEST THIS YEAR … … … OR NEXT.
10 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – If the Falcons can’t win at home anymore then they have no chance on the road.
9 - NEW ORLEANS over Jacksonville – Drop this down a few lines if Trevor Lawrence does end up playing, but still take the Saints.
8 – Las Vegas over CHICAGO – I’ll be in the stands so I can’t go against my Raiders!
7 – Buffalo over NEW ENGLAND – Bailey Zappe by halftime.
6 – INDIANAPOLIS over Cleveland – The Browns used up all of their winning points last week
5 – Green Bay over DENVER – Why would anyone have confidence in the Broncos?
4 – PHILADELPHIA over Miami – Hell, take who you want – this is just gonna be fun to watch!
3 – Detroit over BALTIMORE – This seems like another road game the Lions will somehow sneak out of with a win.
2 – MINNESOTA over San Francisco – 49ers injuries scare me more than Kirk Cousins in primetime
1 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington – I am very not interested in this game
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- Written by David Biggs
Take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Last season (2022), my in-season rankings ended up #6 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com. Pay attention to all of the player news & injury reports that come out throughout the week and good luck!
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 7 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! With Taylor Swift not at the Chiefs-Vikings game last weekend, it freed all of us up to focus on the dominant storyline that actually matters to the fantasy football season: injuries. The first five weeks of the season have been an absolute meat grinder for fantasy lineups. If you haven’t lost a star player to injury yet, count yourself lucky. Week 5 added some more prominent names to the list – Justin Jefferson, James Conner, Anthony Richardson, and De’Von Achane all hit injured reserve this week. All you can do when you lose key players is keep plugging away and find suitable replacements.
The rookie crop continued to impress in week 5, as Puka Nacua wasn’t phased at all by the return of Cooper Kupp, Bijan Robinson scored one of the coolest highlight-reel touchdowns of the season to-date, and Bryce Young posted his first 3-TD game of his career. Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice and Josh Downs turned in solid fantasy games as well, and there are some new rookies who could make an impact in week 6 and beyond as a result of last weekend’s injuries. There’s a lot to sort out with the rookies this week, and luckily, I’m here to walk you through it as always.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 6:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 6: vs. Was.): Bijan hasn’t quite been the top-5 back that we drafted him to be thus far in his rookie campaign, but with so many top backs banged up or underperforming, Robinson is still a locked-in top-10 RB option every week. He’s scored 10+ PPR points and handled 14+ touches in every game this season, and that workload should be plenty against a middling Commanders run defense. Washington has allowed the 13th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 16th in Aaron Schatz’s run defense DVOA. Keep Bijan in the lineup this week.
WR Puka Nacua, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Nacua’s first week with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup went as swimmingly as we could’ve hoped. He tallied 7-71-1 on 11 targets against the Eagles last Sunday. It’s true last weekend’s game script was largely neutral, and this week’s could be more positive with the Rams favored by 6.5 points, but Nacua should be able to do damage before the game gets out of hand against an Arizona team that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 7th-most WR points per game. Keep starting Puka with confidence.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 6: @TB): LaPorta set season-low marks in targets and receptions in week 5, but he found the end zone twice en route to a TE5 finish for the week. He gets his toughest test of the season this week against a Bucs defense that ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10th-fewest TE points per game, but Sammy Ballgame has finished as a top-8 TE in 4 out of 5 games this season. I wouldn’t lump him in with the elite TEs this week given the tougher matchup, but he’s still a top-10 option at the position for me. LaPorta popped up on the injury report as a DNP on Thursday, so keep an eye on this situation and have a backup plan ready to go if for some reason LaPorta doesn’t play.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Min.): Keep an eye on the injury report here as Johnson is still trying to get cleared from a concussion suffered last Thursday, but with Khalil Herbert sidelined by a multi-week injury, Johnson should be in line for the lead back role this week if he can get cleared in time. D’Onta Foreman would undoubtedly mix in as well, but Johnson could be in line for 15 or so touches against a Minnesota team that ranks 14th in run defense DVOA. I’d treat Johnson as a high-end RB3 or better if he’s able to play this week.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 6: @Chi.): Addison realistically could be placed in the category above this one this week with Justin Jefferson on IR. Reports from the team have indicated that KJ Osborn will step into the Vikings “X” WR role that Jefferson usually plays, but Addison is averaging 6 targets per game and should see an uptick in targets while JJ is out. There’s a chance that the Vikings will lean on the run game more this week with Jefferson out, but the Bears’ defense ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and the Vikings lead the NFL in passing attempts. There’s no guarantee that the game script will be positive this week with how resurgent the Bears’ offense has been in the last two games. I’d feel confident starting Addison as a WR3 this week.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 6: @Ten.): Flowers finished as the PPR WR25 last week while leaving at least a dozen more points on the field due to drops and stumbles, and this week he faces a Tennessee defense that allows the 8th-most WR points per game and ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing team’s WR1. Flowers should be locked into lineups as a solid WR3 in a plus matchup. The usage should continue to be strong as Flowers has earned a 30% target share for the season.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The injury to Anthony Richardson might prove to be a good thing for Downs. The Colts should be an inherently more pass-heavy team with Gardner Minshew at QB, and although Downs won’t see more downfield targets with Minshew, he’s likely to see more targets overall. Minshew has averaged 38 pass attempts per game in his last 3 starts in a Shane Steichen offense, and Downs earned 12 targets in Minshew’s one start this year (no more than 7 in any other game this season). Look for Minshew to continue to pepper Downs with short targets this week, and he should again be able to compile his way to a PPR WR3 performance against a middling Jacksonville WR defense (15th-most WR points allowed per game).
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Den.): Rice has continued to earn targets at a high rate when he’s on the field, and he posted a top-24 finish last week after finding the end zone for the 2nd time this season. The concern is that Rice’s playing time has been inconsistent. He was in a route on just 23% of the team’s passing dropbacks in week 5, but every Kansas City skill player is in play this week against a barely-there Broncos defense. Denver ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and the Chiefs have the 2nd-highest implied Vegas point total for the week. Rice is targeted on more than a third of his routes run, and against this defense, he’s got a chance at another WR2 finish if things break his way this week. There’s a lower floor here than you might be comfortable with, but enough upside to give him strong consideration.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 6: @LAR): Wilson dropped a disappointing dud on us in week 5 with just 1 catch for 18 yards, but I think a bounce-back could be in the offing this week. 15 of Wilson’s 18 targets this season have come vs. zone coverage, and the Rams play zone at one of the highest rates in the league. LA has allowed the 5th fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA and are nearly a touchdown favorite in this game, so the Cardinals should be throwing. Wilson topped 50 yards in 3 straight games prior to last week’s dud, and I like his chances to get back there this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Stroud has been easily the most consistent of the rookie QBs so far this season, putting up at least 240 yards in every start and multiple TDs in 3 out of 5. But perhaps the craziest stat about Stroud is that he hasn’t taken a single sack in the last 3 games despite playing behind a beleaguered offensive line. The Saints present a new challenge this week. They’ve allowed the 7th-fewest QB points per game and rank 7th in pass defense DVOA. Baker Mayfield was able to throw 3 TDs against these Saints a couple weeks ago, so there is hope, but Stroud has finished higher than QB12 just once. This week, in a tough matchup, doesn’t feel like a good spot to bet on him to finish higher than that again. He’s a QB2 option for week 6.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 6: @TB): Gibbs managers got some cold water dumped on them this week as Detroit head coach Dan Campbell talked up David Montgomery’s role as the team’s workhorse back and referred to Gibbs as a “change of pace” guy. It’s what we’ve already seen play out on the field so far this season, but it still feels like pouring salt in an open wound to hear Campbell say it out loud. Gibbs’ workload in that change of pace role will keep him in the range of flex options for fantasy leagues, but the matchup this week is one that I don’t feel great about for him. The Bucs allow the 12th-fewest RB points per game, and they rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing running backs. That dicey matchup puts Gibbs on the wrong side of the borderline for me…and that’s if he’s even able to play. He’s still questionable after suffering a hamstring injury late last week that kept him out in week 5.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 6: @LAR): James Conner has been placed on IR after suffering a knee injury against the Bengals in week 5, opening a void in the Cardinals’ backfield. Demercado has emerged as the popular waiver wire choice to replace him after tallying 53 yards and a score against Cincy, but things get messier with the return of Keaontay Ingram this week. Ingram was the backup to Conner to open the season, and opened the door to playing time for Demercado with a neck injury he suffered in week 3. Ingram is expected to return this week, and the Cardinals have officially listed him as the starter on the depth chart. The likeliest outcome here is that both backs split the backfield work, with early downs leaning more toward Ingram and passing downs more toward Demercado. Emari ran double the passing routes that Ingram did in the games where both were active, and his 3 receptions last week are just two short of Ingram’s career total of 5. The Cardinals are likely to be significant underdogs in each of their next 4 games, so I’d prioritize Demercado over Ingram as a pickup, especially in PPR leagues, but both will make for dicey start options outside of deep leagues.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 6: @KC): McLaughlin looked explosive in the last two weeks, piling up over 80 scrimmage yards with a TD in each game, but the return of Javonte Williams this week likely causes this to devolve into a messy 3-way committee. With Williams out last week, McLaughlin played only half as many snaps as Samaje Perine, but he made the most of those opportunities with 12 touches on 19 snaps. Williams is off the injury report and will play on Thursday, so I’d expect Jaleel to see closer to 5-8 touches against the Chiefs. That’s just not enough work to trust him in lineups unless you’re desperate.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 6: @Hou.): Miller had his best game of the season in week 5, tallying 90 scrimmage yards on 16 touches, but he was out-touched by Alvin Kamara 11-to-2 prior to the Saints going ahead by 3 touchdowns. The bulk of his work came in garbage time. Of course, there’s a chance that there’s more garbage time this week against the Texans, but Houston has been better than expected so far and enters the week as just a 1.5-point underdog. Miller likely doesn’t see the same workload this week and should be kept on the bench.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 6: vs. Bal.): The Titans have struggled to control games early on this season, and Spears has benefited from those struggles. As the primary receiving back, he inevitably gets more playing time when the Titans are behind on the scoreboard, and that’s resulted in him playing more than 50% of the team snaps in 4 out of 5 games this year. He’s also earned 4+ targets in 4 out of 5 games this year. I don’t like his chances of turning in a strong game against the Ravens even if he hits those marks for a 5th time. Baltimore allows the 11th-fewest RB points per game this year, and only two backs have topped 12 PPR points against them on the season (Joe Mixon and Zack Moss). The Titans are 4-point underdogs, so they should be playing from behind and afford Spears his usual workload, but I’d expect that to lead to high single-digit points against the Ravens.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cin.): Charbonnet still isn’t seeing quite enough work to get real consideration for lineups. He played his lowest snap share of the season in week 4 against the Giants, but he did put up 40 scrimmage yards in that game. He’s done his best work in Seattle’s multi-score wins over the Panthers and Giants, and this week’s game seems unlikely to be a lopsided win as the Bengals got their mojo back last Sunday. Cincy is favored by 3 points in this game. The Bengals do rank 30th in run defense DVOA, so Charbonnet should have a chance to have success with his opportunities. I’m just not confident that he’ll get enough of them to help your fantasy lineup this week.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Dell isn’t practicing as of Thursday as he tries to clear the concussion protocol. As of now, it seems that he’ll miss this game with the Saints. Normally, I would be bullish on his outlook against the Saints as Dell averages nearly 5 yards per route run against man coverage, and the Saints play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. But with no practice time this week, and the Saints ranking 7th in pass defense DVOA, I’d be inclined to sit Tank even if he gets cleared in time.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Mingo is coming off his best game of the season, putting up 5 catches for 48 yards on 7 targets in Detroit, but it was the first time all season that a healthy Mingo played behind DJ Chark in the WR pecking order. He was down to an 82% route participation rate after being above 90% in each of the first two games of the season. Mingo may have an extra chip on his shoulder this week due to rumors that the team will try to trade for Jerry Jeudy, but Mingo’s best game of the season didn’t earn him a top-36 finish last week. If you believe that the Panthers are better this week with a simplified offense, you could consider Mingo as a WR4 option, but I think the best course of action would be to leave him benched.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Johnston was up near a 70% route participation rate in week 4 ahead the Chargers’ bye with Mike Williams sidelined, but he still hasn’t topped 3 targets or 20 yards in a game, and Dallas allows the 4th-fewest WR points per game. It doesn’t help Johnston that Dallas plays more man coverage than any other defense in the league. Per Roto Underworld, Johnston wins vs. man coverage just 11.1% of the time (121st-best rate in the league). His breakout probably won’t happen this week.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cin.): You probably don’t need me to tell you to sit JSN at this point. He’s reached 5 or more PPR points just once in the first 4 games, and the team refuses to use him down the field. His aDOT for the season is under 4 yards, and the Bengals rank 9th in the league in pass defense DVOA on short throws. You shouldn’t be counting on a breakout game for Smith-Njigba this week.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. NYG): Keep an eye on the injury report here. Both Kincaid and Dawson Knox are listed as questionable and logging limited practices this week. If both play, Kincaid shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than an uninspiring TE2 option, but if Knox sits and Kincaid plays, there’s a little bit more upside for the rookie than usual. The Giants have allowed just the 12th-fewest TE points per game, but that’s mostly because they haven’t allowed a tight end to score a TD. They’ve given up 8+ PPR points to a tight end in each of the last 3 games. Kincaid might be a fringe TE1 option if Knox sits.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Wk. 6: vs. SF): Deshaun Watson’s status still remains up in the air for this week’s tilt with the 49ers, but the Browns have said that if Watson can’t play, it’ll be PJ Walker who gets the start this time rather than DTR. Thompson-Robinson looked to be in over his head in his first start against Baltimore, and I’d imagine he’d suffer similar struggles if he got a chance against the 49ers.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Ind.): Bigsby has handled exactly 3 opportunities in each of the last 3 games, and even if he scores a TD, that kind of workload isn’t going to be helpful in your lineups. He did see 7 carries and 1 target and found the end zone against the Colts in week 1, but nothing about his workload since that game suggests a repeat is likely here.
RB Eric Gray, NYG (Wk. 6: @Buf.): Gray got some extended opportunity last weekend with Saquon Barkley still sidelined, but he turned 13 touches into just 26 scoreless yards, and the Bills rank 13th in run defense DVOA. Buffalo has struggled with top end backs like De’Von Achane, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne all reaching 100 rush yards against them, but I expect they’ll have considerably less trouble with Gray if Barkley is out again. Even if Saquon sits, Gray will continue to split the backfield work with Matt Breida. Barkley has gotten in limited practices to start the week.
RB Sean Tucker, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Tucker has totaled 23 rushing yards on 15 carries in his last 3 games combined, and this week faces a Detroit defense that ranks 4th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. We can hope that Tucker got himself right over the bye week, but there’s no reason to expect a breakout game here.
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Ten.): Mitchell spent the first 5 weeks of the season on IR but looks likely to be activated this week. He beat out Melvin Gordon for a roster spot in training camp, so it’s possible that he immediately supplants Gordon as their RB3, but it’s a role that likely means only a few touches per game when both Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are active, as they should be this week.
RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 6: @LAC): Vaughn is averaging 5 touches per game this season, and while he hasn’t done much with those touches (9.9 total PPR points), the Chargers do allow the 8th-most RB points per game. The problem for Vaughn is that just 7 of his 25 touches for the year have come in situations where the Cowboys were closer than 28 points apart from their opponents on the scoreboard. His usage has been almost entirely in garbage time, and the point spread in this game is just 2 points, so there shouldn’t be much of that.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Palmer has played close to a full-time role in the Bucs last two games, logging route participation rates of 86% and 79% in weeks 3 & 4, but he’s yet to top 3 targets in a game this season. He’s scored 2 TDs already this year, but he’s only reached 10 yards in a game once. The targets in the offense continue to funnel to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and that won’t change this week. If for some reason the hamstring injury Evans suffered in week 4 keeps him out this week, Palmer would bump up to a WR4/5 option, but all reports have suggested that Evans should be back for week 6.
WR Jaylin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 6: @Buf.): Hyatt’s playing time has been headed in the right direction, and he’s been 2nd among the Giants’ WRs behind Darius Slayton in routes run in each of the last two games, but he’s been targeted just 5 times on 98 routes run for the season. The problem is that Hyatt is mostly used on clear-out deep routes, and even when he’s able to get open on those routes, the Giants’ o-line isn’t holding up long enough to let Daniel Jones hit Hyatt on those plays. That shouldn’t change this week. No team has allowed more sacks this season than the Giants, and no defense has recorded more sacks than the Bills. Buffalo has racked up 18 sacks in the last 3 weeks, and they should make life miserable for Jones in week 6. Hyatt only needs 1 deep ball to turn in a respectable performance, but I don’t like the chances of Daniel Jones having enough time in the pocket to make that happen. If Jones misses this game and Tyrod Taylor starts instead I don’t think it will change a whole lot for Hyatt.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 6: vs. Sea.): Iosivas finally saw his first real opportunities with Tee Higgins sidelined in week 6, and while he made the most of his chances, his role isn’t big enough for fantasy consideration. Iosivas ran just 15 routes and was targeted twice, though he did make a dazzling toe-tap catch (that didn’t count when he was incorrectly ruled out of bounds and Zac Taylor opted not to challenge). He may continue to play an ancillary role until Higgins returns, but it won’t be a big enough role to use him in any lineups.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 6: @LV): Douglas is still fighting to clear the concussion protocol ahead of this week’s game, but even if he gets cleared, his limited role could get even smaller this week with the return of Tyquan Thornton from IR.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 6: vs. NE): After totaling just 1 catch for 2 yards in the first 4 weeks of the season, Mayer finally broke through with 2 grabs for 39 yards on Monday night against Green Bay. It was a promising performance for the rookie, but his route participation rate (46% in week 5) still leaves something to be desired. Mayer could be an intriguing speculative add for the back half of the season, but you can’t thrust him into lineups just yet.
Rookies on Byes in Week 6: WRs Jayden Reed & Dontayvion Wicks, GB, TE Luke Musgrave, GB, TE Darnell Washington, PIT
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Anthony Richardson, IND, QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB De’Von Achane, MIA, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Young posted his best game as a pro in week 5, piling up 247 yards and 3 TDs against the Lions, mostly in garbage time. He should be in line for more garbage time with the Dolphins favored by nearly 2 TDs this week. Garbage time passing opportunities don’t automatically mean another good game is coming for Bryce, but the Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA on short throws, and Young has the 3rd-shortest average target depth out of 33 qualified QBs. The Panthers have also talked about simplifying the offense going forward, and if that change delivers positive results Bryce should be able to finish as a mid-range QB2 this week.
RB Christopher Brooks, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Car.): The Dolphins got devastating news this week when they learned that De’Von Achane’s injury suffered late in week 5 will require a stint on injured reserve for the dynamic runner. Raheem Mostert seems sure to see lots of action going forward, but it remains to be seen how the rest of the backfield will shake out while Achane is sidelined. The Dolphins may get both Salvon Ahmed and Jeff Wilson Jr. back from injury this week, but don’t discount the chances that Christopher Brooks carves out a role for himself. Brooks is a physical downhill runner who usually gets more than what’s blocked for him, and the Dolphins are going to like that even if he doesn’t have the type of speed of the other weapons in this offense. Don’t be surprised when Brooks is used as the closer in any blowout wins, like he was against the Broncos in week 3. Miami is a 2-TD favorite against the Panthers this week, so Brooks could have a prime opportunity for that kind of work this weekend against a Carolina defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA. He’s in play as a dart throw in deep leagues and DFS tournaments for week 6, but he’s also worth a waiver claim if you don’t need him this week in case he earns more than just that closer role.
RB Zach Evans, LAR (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Evans isn’t a guy you can use anywhere right now, but he should be on your radar in deeper leagues, especially dynasty formats. Thus far, the Rams have been content to run Kyren Williams out at RB on more than 80% of their offensive snaps, but he’s been terribly inefficient with his opportunities. He ranks 37th out of 41 qualified running backs in rushing yards over expectation. If that continues, the Rams may eventually look to improve their output at the position, and Evans could be the guy to get that opportunity. You don’t have to pick him up right this moment, but you should be aware of the situation.
WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 6: @KC): Mims isn’t likely to haul in a deep ball this week against a Kansas City defense that ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, but he’s worth a speculative add if he’s still on your waiver wire as the Broncos released Lil’Jordan Humphrey this week and rumors are running rampant that Jerry Jeudy will be traded in short order. If Jeudy is moved, the team may finally have no choice but to give more playing time to the rookie wide receiver who ranks 1st in the league with nearly 5 yards per route run. You’d be wise to beat the rush to the waiver wire when the Jeudy trade does happen and pick Mims up before it does.
WR Derius Davis, LAC (Wk. 6: vs. Dal.): Davis is worth keeping an eye on in leagues that give bonus points for return yards. With Mike Williams gone for the season, Davis was used as the WR4, and the team made a point to get him a few gadget touches in the run game with some success. Davis totaled 67 scrimmage yards on 5 touches in week 4. He also serves as the Chargers primary return man, so while he’s merely a deep league stash for now, it wouldn’t take a full role in the offense for him to have value in return yardage leagues. Think of him as the Chargers’ version of KaVontae Turpin.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
If you haven’t noticed by now, we are in the thick of a time that plays a role in the confidence pool, especially season-long pools – bye weeks!
This can play big in your season long pools. If you have had a solid start and are sitting comfortably towards the top of the standings, you are loving bye weeks as the top numbers aren’t in play! You can’t have 15 and 16 point games where there are only 14 games played in a week!
On the flip side, if you need to make up ground, you need to make sure you hit as many picks as you can in a week.
Lucky for you, you’re reading my picks, so you’re good to go ?
Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
15 – KANSAS CITY over Denver – A week of dramatic, close, competitive NFL games … … … will begin on Sunday, not Thursday.
14 – MIAMI over Carolina – Welcome to the league, Bryce! We need 64 points from you this week.
13 – BUFFALO over New York Giants – An easy way for the Bills to transition into a season without Matt Milano is to play the Giants
12 – Philadelphia over NEW YORK JETS – Another nationally televised game based on a quarterback who won’t be playing.
11 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Arizona – The Rams offense seemed pretty tough BEFORE Cooper Kupp came back.
10 – JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis – The Colts don’t win in Jacksonville, and that’s even when they have the better team!
9 – Baltimore over TENNESSEE – I feel that the London crowd will be offended by player nicknamed King Henry crowd so the refs will lean towards the Ravens.
8 – San Francisco over CLEVELAND – Hard to see picking against the 9ers in any situation at this point.
7 – LAS VEGAS over New England – Hopefully the Raiders will keep the ball out of Jakobi Meyeres if the game is close late.
6 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Dallas – How quickly has the allure of the Cowboys disappeared?
5 – New Orleans over HOUSTON – The Saints just seem to find a way to win
4 – ATLANTA over Washington – It’s a home game so obviously you can’t go against Desmond Ridder!
3 – CINCINNATI over Seattle – OK, I’m back with the Bengals. My BOLD PREDICTION of the week is that even with the slow start, THE BENGALS WILL WIN THE AFC NORTH.
2 – TAMPA BAY over Detroit – This could be a surprisingly fun game
1 – CHICAGO over Minnesota – If you think the Bears will win at all this season, keep it on the one-point linen
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- Written by David Biggs
Take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Last season (2022), my in-season rankings ended up #6 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com. Pay attention to all of the player news & injury reports that come out throughout the week and good luck!
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 6 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
4 Career Pick-Sixes
Mac Jones has played 19 home games and has thrown 4 pick-sixes. That’s the same number that Tom Brady threw in his entire career in Foxborough. (Sidebar: Tom Brady has played in more Super Bowls, 10, than games in the Wild Card round, 7). This is normally where I’d pile on the Patriots and try to roast them for losing terribly two games in a row this year. To be honest though, I really want to see Bill Belichick get that win #300. He’s a hero to curmudgeons everywhere. This game was really the pinnacle, or I suppose the nadir, of this Patriots team. Their opponent had 12 penalties for 86 yards and only converted 1/3rd of their third downs, yet still dominated the time of possession 2:1. The Patriots only converted 1 out of 14 third downs and had 156 total yards of offense. Well, there I go piling on when I said I wouldn’t. Hopefully, the Pats can win #300 for Bill this coming week because I don’t see it happening for the rest of the month while they play the Bills and Dolphins.
12.1 Yards Per Carry
De’Von Achane, yes, it took me one whole entry until I got to this season’s statistical freak, went into week 5 averaging 11.5 yards/attempt, and he only improved on that. He has a whopping 460 rushing yards, second only to Christian McCaffrey at 510. CMC has taken 99 carries to get there, compared to Achane’s 38. CMC’s average of 5.2 Y/A is absolutely pitful in comparison. OK, that might be a little far, but Achane has 17 carries of 20+ yards. He gains 20+ yards 45% of the time he gets handed the ball! The next closest player in terms of yards per carry is Breece Hall, and he’d be noticed and lauded in any year that isn’t 2023. Hall has 54 carries for a measly 387 yards – just 7.2 Y/A – why even bother? Achane, with essentially only 3 fantasy games under his belt (he has no points week 1, 1.5 points week 2) is still the RB3 on the season.
14 Consecutive Games with a Touchdown
Moving on to the guy who keeps seeing Achane in his rearview mirror. It’s not because Christian McCaffery is slowing down. I suppose that makes Achane more impressive because McCaffrey is now on quite a streak of 14 games in a row with a touchdown. He has 18 total touchdowns during that stretch. He’s averaging almost 25 fantasy points per game this year. McCaffrey has shown time and again that when healthy, he is the best player in fantasy football. Now that he’s on one of the best offenses in the league, it has to feel like your team starts every game with a lead.
3 of the Top 14 Kickers
I love to talk about removing kickers from fantasy football, and I just can’t help myself once again. This week – using the drinkfive fantasy football league as the standard – only 3 of the top 14 are rostered. None of the top 6 kickers are rostered. Kickers in the NFL are important in some situations. Kickers in fantasy football are random! With teams going for 2 more than ever, there’s not even the one-pointers to count on. The two most rostered players in Fleaflicker leagues, Tyler Bass (96%) and Justin Tucker (94%) combined for just 5.5 points. Together they would just be the K23 on the week! If the two best position players turned in games like that, it would be front story news on every fantasy website. But no, it’s just another Sunday for kickers. OK, I promise to lay off the kickers for a while.
186 Consecutive Pass Attempts
C.J. Stroud is the best-looking rookie QB to start the season. He currently has a streak of 186 consecutive pass attempts – all of the passes he’s thrown this season – without an interception. Stroud is the QB13 on the season so far. He’s thrown over 300 yards twice already and has 3 games with multiple touchdown passes. He’s pulled the Texans out of the basement with a respectable 2-3 start, including a TD pass to take the lead late in this week’s game. Unfortunately, he was up against the man who does not lose at home. Desmond Ridder has the Falcons at 3-2. All three victories occurred at home – two of those being exciting 4th quarter comebacks. Ridder has not lost a game at home in his professional or college career. He’s 5-0 in the NFL as a starter at home, and of course, to balance it out, he’s 0-4 on the road.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was one of those weeks that reminds you just how tough this game can be to predict. It wasn’t exactly a banner week here at the Rookie Report, as a lengthy list of players I liked to have solid games – Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs, Roschon Johnson, Zach Charbonnet, JSN, Tank Dell, Jordan Addison, and Luke Musgrave – were huge disappointments. I also didn’t feel great about CJ Stroud or Michael Wilson in week 4, and both turned in top-10 finishes.
Some weeks are going to be like that. Making the right decisions for your lineup isn’t about being perfect every week, and you’ll drive yourself nuts if that’s your goal. All you can do is use the information available to try and give yourself the best chance to win. You can’t kick yourself for not making an irrational decision like starting Michael Wilson over Calvin Ridley, or Jaylen Warren over Jahmyr Gibbs, even though those moves would’ve resulted in more points in your lineup.
I’ll continue to let talent, usage and matchups be my guide in breaking down the outlook for the rookie class each week and following that is going to put you in better position to win more weeks than not.
This week we hit the first of the NFL’s bye weeks, so you may be searching for fill-ins for every week starters like Justin Herbert or Kenneth Walker III, and you might be looking at a rookie as an option to step in and fill the void, so let’s talk about what to expect from the rookies this weekend.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 5:
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Anthony Richardson, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Richardson returned last Sunday after missing week 3 with a concussion, and he quickly reminded us that he has the potential to break fantasy this season, finishing as the QB2 for the week behind only Josh Allen. Richardson has played just two full games so far, and he logged 10 rushing attempts, multiple total TDs, and over 20 fantasy points in both. He also tallied 17.7 points in just over a quarter against Houston before suffering his concussion. The Titans are just a middling QB defense, allowing the 14th-fewest QB points per game, but they rank 25th in Aaron Schatz’s pass defense DVOA. You should be treating Richardson as a top-5 fantasy QB this week.
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 5: vs. Hou.): Robinson had a field day in London, getting back into the RB1 column with his 3rd top-12 PPR finish in 4 games. He’s now seen at least 5 targets in all 4 games and ranks 3rd among all running backs in routes run. This week he faces off with a Texans defense that allows the 7th-most running back points per game and ranks 28th in run defense DVOA. The Texans also rank 27th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. All systems are go for Bijan this week. He’s a slam dunk top-10 RB option.
RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): Achane followed up his 50-point explosion in week 3 with another dynamite performance in week 4, tallying 27 PPR points and finishing the week as the RB5. He was one of the few bright spots for Miami’s offense in a 28-point drubbing at the hands of the Bills. Achane totaled 120 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs on just 11 touches, but what’s more exciting is that he’s seemingly moved ahead of Raheem Mostert on the depth chart. Achane was on the field for 66% of the offensive snaps and in a route on 68% of the team’s passing dropbacks. He also handled the only carries inside the 5-yard line. He’s now the 1A back in this offense, and this week they face a Giants defense that has allowed the 10th-most RB points per game and ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA. There’s no reason to sit him in what should be an easier matchup this week. Achane is a top-10 RB play this week.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): The Rams might get Cooper Kupp back this week, but you can’t sit Nacua with the way he’s been playing. Puka has been playing primarily on the perimeter, and Kupp works mostly from the slot, so there’s room in this offense for both to thrive. Nacua has been rewriting the rookie record books through 4 weeks, averaging nearly 10 catches for 125 yards on 13 targets per game, and the Eagles have allowed the 5th-most WR points per game. Kupp’s return could put a dent into Puka’s target share, but that likely means he’s more of a WR2 than a surefire WR1 for fantasy lineups. There’s still a chance that Kupp doesn’t return this week as well. Don’t be afraid to start Nacua this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 5: @Atl.): With Justin Herbert and Geno Smith on byes this week, I think it pushes Stroud into the top-12 QBs for the week. He’s been flat out dealing over the last 3 weeks, averaging 323 yards, 2 TDs, and zero INTs per game, and he faces an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA. Atlanta has also struggled to defend the run, so QBs haven’t piled up a ton of volume against them. No passer has thrown for 250+ yards against Atlanta yet this season, but the Texans are a pass-first team and Stroud should have a great chance to be the first. He’s a back end QB1 option this week.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Gibbs has continued to look impressive with his touches, but also continued to disappoint fantasy managers over the last month. David Montgomery returned from injury in week 4 and went right back to a 70% snap share and dominating the goal line carries. Montgomery scored 3 touchdowns on Thursday night and is up to 5 scores in 3 games. Gibbs is yet to score his first NFL touchdown. For the time being, we need to readjust our expectations for Gibbs and treat him like a weekly RB3 option rather than the potential RB1 we drafted him to be. With that said, this week Gibbs gets a juicy matchup and should probably be in lineups if you can make room for him. Carolina has allowed the 4th most RB points per game so far, and they rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Detroit has one of the highest implied point totals of the week at 27 points, so this is an offense to target. Don’t count on a full complement of snaps, but Gibbs should see a dozen or so touches and find his way to an RB2 finish.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): This is contingent on Javonte Williams not playing this week, but if the hip injury Williams sustained against the Bears keeps him out on Sunday, I like McLaughlin as a back end RB2 option in a reasonable matchup with the Jets. Samaje Perine would likely lead the Broncos in snaps if Williams sits (Perine out-snapped McLaughlin 22-16 in week 4), but the Broncos made a point last week to get the ball into McLaughlin’s hands. McLaughlin touched the ball on 10 of his 16 snaps and he caught a receiving TD before Williams had even been hurt, and he’s been significantly more explosive than Perine so far this season. McLaughlin has averaged nearly 3 yards per touch and 4.5 yards per rush more than Perine over the last 3 weeks. The Jets have allowed the 11th-most RB points per game and are one of just 8 teams allowing 6 or more running back receptions per game. There’s room here for another strong performance from the rookie back. Just know that there is some built-in risk since McLaughlin’s production is more a result of efficiency than volume.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 5: vs. KC): Addison put up a frustrating goose egg last week on just 1 target in a game where the Vikings threw the ball just 19 times. The upside case for Addison is that this offense passes at such a high volume that even as Minnesota’s WR3 he’s going to put up useful fantasy stat lines. In weeks where they don’t throw a lot, floor weeks like this are a possibility. Luckily for Addison, the Vikings should throw plenty as 5-point underdogs against the defending champs on Sunday. Look for a bounce back game from the rookie WR against a KC pass defense that struggled to slow down Zach Wilson last Sunday night. I’d treat Addison as a WR3 this week.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Through his first 4 games, Flowers has put up consistent fantasy performances despite some yo-yoing of his target totals. In weeks 1 and 3, Flowers earned 10 targets in each game, but in weeks 2 and 4 he earned just 9 targets total. The Ravens have at least done us the favor of getting him those targets further downfield in the games where the targets haven’t been as plentiful. He’s had an aDOT below 4 yards in both games with 10 targets, and an aDOT above 12 yards in both games with fewer targets, and it’s resulted in Flowers reaching 50 scrimmage yards and 8+ PPR points in all 4 games. There’s a little more risk this week in firing up Flowers with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham both likely to return from injury for week 5, but Zay is still the team’s WR1 and faces a promising matchup. The Steelers have allowed the 3rd-most points per game to opposing wide receivers, and Flowers is still a great upside WR3/4 option this week.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): The return of Christian Watson limited Reed to his lowest target share of the season, but he’s still earned 5+ targets in all 4 games and had an aDOT of 14+ yards in 3 of them. Watson’s snap share may increase further in his second game back, but I still like Reed’s chances of posting a strong fantasy day this week. The Raiders rank 28th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 5th-fewest PPR points to receivers lined up on the perimeter. Reed functions as the Packers’ primary slot receiver, aligning in the slot for 73% of his snaps. The Raiders allow the 12th-most PPR points to receivers lined up in the slot. It’s still going to be a bit of a weekly guessing game to figure out which Packer WRs to trust in fantasy, but the matchup suggests that Reed should be in line for a strong outing on Monday. I like him as a WR3/4 option this week and would rank him just ahead of Tank Dell for week 5.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): LaPorta finished outside the top-12 PPR tight ends for the first time in week 4, but he still earned 5 targets for the 4th consecutive game and topped 50 yards for the third game in a row. His role has been very stable, and while the Panthers have allowed just the 8th-fewest TE points per game, they’ve struggled to contain the position when it’s actually targeted. Carolina ranks in the bottom-5 in the league with 9 yards per target allowed to opposing tight ends. LaPorta is a fringe TE1 this week, even in a matchup that looks tough at first glance.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.): I was excited about Bryce’s chances at a big game last week against a porous Viking defense, and while he did play his most efficient game of the season, he finished with just 7 fantasy points and certainly didn’t help you win your matchups if you started him. The increase in efficiency was a good sign. Bryce set season-highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating, but he took too many drive killing sacks and gave away a TD on a fumble that proved to be the difference in the game. Young isn’t throwing for enough yards or TDs to be trustworthy as a QB2 in lineups right now, and his opponent this week is much tougher than the Vikings. Detroit ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA and should be able to keep Bryce mostly in check. I’d view him as a dicey QB2 option this week.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 5: @Was.): Roschon’s playing time went in the wrong direction in week 4 as the Bears played mostly from in front against Denver. He was out-snapped by Khalil Herbert 55 to 15. It was really the first chance we’ve had to see the Bears play with a lead, so for now I would assume this is what the RB usage will look like when that happens. Chicago is a 5.5-point underdog this week, so the game script should be Roschon-friendly, but even when that’s been the case in previous weeks, Johnson his split the backfield work with Herbert and averaged just 9 touches per game. He’ll need efficiency to get by, and the Commanders rank 9th in run defense DVOA. Roschon is in play as a fringe RB3 option, but I’d prefer to look elsewhere this week.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 5: @Atl.): Dell followed up back-to-back 20-point PPR games with a 1-catch, 29-scrimmage yard dud in week 4 against the Steelers. Through 4 games, it’s starting to feel like each game is either going to be a Tank Dell game or a Nico Collins game. Robert Woods hasn’t put up big fantasy production, but his role has been stable. He’s been right around a 20% target share every week, and between a 20% and 30% air yardage share in each game. Dell and Collins have seen much bigger weekly fluctuations. Collins had air yardage shares of 64% in week 1 and 42% in week 4, both games where he led the WR room in fantasy points. Dell was at 54% in week 3, when he finished as the PPR WR7. The duo was much closer together in air yards in week 2, when both players produced strong fantasy days. Overall, it’s been Collins who has more consistently seen downfield targets and has out-produced the rookie in 3-of-4 games. For the time being, I’d consider Collins a weekly WR2 option, and Dell a weekly WR3/4 option. The Falcons are not a good pass defense, ranking just 27th in pass defense DVOA, but they also don’t face a ton of passing volume as they’re a bad run defense too. Atlanta has allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game. That likely lower pass volume for the Texans has me leaning towards leaving Dell on the bench this week, but he’s right on the borderline.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Wilson posted a monster game in tough matchup with the 49ers last weekend, piling up a line of 7-76-2 on 7 targets, but it wasn’t due to some sort of fundamental change in his usage. Wilson logged a route participation rate of 74% in week 4 (his second-lowest mark of the season), and earned a 17% target share, which was his highest of the season but not by a wide margin. It’s a great sign that Wilson is seeing the ball come his way more often, but last week’s result was likely a bit of an outlier. Wilson has been very efficient this season, catching 89% of his targets and putting up nearly 15 yards per target. The Bengals this season have allowed just a 56.6% completion rate on throws to receivers and 7.8 yards per target. Expecting a top-20 finish out of Wilson this week is probably wishful thinking. You could certainly plug him in as a WR3/WR4 option, especially in deeper leagues, but he should be viewed as more of a floor play this week.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): The matchup is a good one this week for Downs against a Tennessee defense that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 7th-most PPR points to opposing receivers lined up in the slot, but the overall volume just hasn’t been there for Downs and we don’t know what kind of impact Jonathan Taylor’s return will make on the team’s pass rate going forward. Downs has been held below 40 yards in all 3 games that Anthony Richardson has started, and even if he breaks that streak this week in this good matchup, he’s probably still just barely scratching and clawing his way to double-digit PPR points. Downs is a WR4 option this week in PPR leagues only.
WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): Mims came up with his 5th catch of 30+ yards in the last 3 weeks against the Bears on Sunday, but the Broncos continue to frustratingly limit his playing time. He ran just 12 routes in that game and faces a tougher matchup this week against the Jets. The Jets’ defense has allowed the 4th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. I don’t love Mims’ chances of pulling in a deep ball or two in this matchup.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 5: @Det.): Mingo will return from his concussion this week, and he’s been he’s been a constant on the field when he’s been healthy, logging route participation rates of 93% and 97% in the first two games of the season. It remains to be seen if he’ll return to that same role since all of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Terrace Marshall Jr. have posted 14+ PPR points in a game since Mingo’s injury. There are volume concerns with the Panthers averaging just 168 passing yards per game in Bryce Young’s starts, and the Lions rank 8th in pass defense DVOA. If Mingo has a breakout game this week, it would be totally unexpected. I’d keep him parked on the bench.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): Musgrave has cleared the concussion protocol and will return to face the Raiders on Monday night, and I expect his role to pick up where it left off. He’ll still function as the full-time tight end and the Raiders have allowed the 11th-most TE points per game, so he is a viable starting option in this one. My concerns are that no tight end has caught for big volume against the Raiders (no tight end has reached 45 receiving yards against them this season), and we still haven’t seen if Musgrave’s targets will take a hit at all with Christian Watson back in the lineup since the rookie tight end was injured so early on in week 3. I wouldn’t bank on more than 5 or so targets for Musgrave this week, and that means you’re holding out hope for a touchdown. The Raiders have allowed 2 tight end scores in their first 4 games, so that TD is very much in play. If any of the teams on byes this week had a top-12 tight end, I’d probably be more bullish on Musgrave finishing that high this weekend. Instead, I’ll say that I’d consider him a top-16 option at TE for week 5.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Jax.): Kincaid was in a route on nearly 80% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks in week 4, but he logged his 3rd game this season with fewer than 30 receiving yards. His targets continue to come mostly within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, which sort of misses out on the biggest advantage of playing with Josh Allen – his arm strength and willingness to take deep shots. Allen ranked 3rd in the league in deep ball attempts last year, but Kincaid has had just 1 catch go for more than 10 yards this season. He gets a favorable matchup this week as the Jaguars allow the 6th-most TE points per game, but I can’t recommend starting Kincaid given what his usage has looked like. You could plug him in as a desperation bye week fill in, but there just aren’t any top-flight tight ends on byes this week that you’re in need of replacing.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Jimmy Garoppolo is practicing as of Thursday, but has not yet cleared the NFL concussion protocol, leaving open the possibility that O’Connell will get a second start this week. The 4th-round pick handled himself well at times in his first start and did a good job of getting the ball to Davante Adams in the 2nd half, but he also turned the ball over 3 times against a Chargers defense that had been the worst QB defense in the league through 3 weeks and finished as the QB23. With 4 teams on a bye, any starting QB is in consideration in Superflex leagues, but O’Connell would be toward the bottom of the list of starters this week if he starts. He gets a tougher matchup against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the 15th-fewest QB points per game. If AOC starts again, he’s nothing more than a desperation plug-in for 2-QB and superflex leagues.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Demercado has stepped in as the RB2 in Arizona with Keaontay Ingram battling a neck injury. He played 38% of the offensive snaps against the 49ers last Sunday, but that resulted in just 4 touches for 24 yards. He may get some extra run in weeks when the Cardinals are in catch-up mode as they were last week (Emari played 57% of the two-minute drill snaps in week 4), but this will remain James Conner’s backfield going forward. Demercado shouldn’t be a consideration as anything more than a waiver flyer in deeper dynasty leagues.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 5: @NE): Alvin Kamara returned from suspension in week 4 and dominated the Saints backfield. Kamara saw 11 carries and a whopping 14 targets against Tampa, while Miller and Tony Jones combined for just 1 target and 1 carry (both by Miller). Kendre’s opportunity to carve out a bigger role may have passed him by now that Kamara is back. He needs to stay on your bench (or dropped to the waiver wire).
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Over the last 3 weeks combined, Bigsby has played 27 snaps and handled 5 carries and 1 target. There’s always a chance that Tank gets a goal line plunge, but if he doesn’t, he might give you less than 1 fantasy point. He’s not start-able for now.
RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL (Wk. 5: @SF): Vaughn has handled 6+ touches in 3 of Dallas’ 4 games this season, but each of those games was a blowout win for the Cowboys. Dallas is a 4-point underdog on the road against the 49ers this week, and the odds of it being a laugher in the ‘Boys favor by halftime is almost zero. Don’t be surprised if Vaughn isn’t involved at all Sunday night.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Douglas tallied a 42-yard catch last Sunday at Dallas, but his playing time continues to be too limited to rely on. He draws targets when he’s on the field, with a 26% target per route run rate, but his route participation rate has been in the 40s in 3 games this season (and at 9% in the other game). That’s just not enough playing time to be useful in fantasy unless the Patriots are throwing the ball 45-50 times per game. They’ve attempted 29 and 30 passes in the last two weeks, and that number is unlikely to climb much this week. The Patriots-Saints tilt is one of just two games this week with a Vegas point total below 40 points.
WR Ronnie Bell, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Bell scored a TD in week 3 with Brandon Aiyuk sidelined, but with Jauan Jennings out and Deebo Samuel serving as a decoy in week 4, Bell was limited to just 3 routes run. Bell is the WR5 in this offense behind that trio and Ray-Ray McCloud, which makes him waiver wire fodder in all but deep dynasty leagues.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 5: @LV): Wicks logged his lowest route participation rate of the season in week 4 with Christian Watson back in the lineup, but the drop-off in playing time wasn’t as drastic as expected. Wicks was still in a route on 57% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks as Watson played a limited number of snaps. The problem is that Wicks was targeted just once after averaging 5 targets per game in the previous 2 games. It’s only going to get harder for Wicks to earn more targets as Watson gets up to full strength. The Raiders are a terrible defense, and this would be a spot where Wicks would have some extra upside if we knew he was going to get opportunities, but it’s hard to count on that this week.
TE Josh Whyle, TEN (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Whyle finished last week as a top-12 TE after earning his first 2 targets of the season and hauling in a 24-yard touchdown. Don’t expect that kind of output regularly. He’s run just 11 routes all season.
Rookies on Byes in Week 5: QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE, RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA, RB Sean Tucker, TB, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, WRs Quentin Johnston & Derius Davis, LAC, WR Trey Palmer, TB, WR Cedric Tillman, CLE
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: QB Will Levis, TEN, QB Clayton Tune, ARI, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Zach Evans, LAR, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, WR Kayshon Boutte, NE, TE Michael Mayer, LV, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 5: @Ind.): Spears hasn’t quite had a breakout game yet, but he’s been much more involved in the Tennessee offense than we could’ve anticipated. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps and logged a 50% or better route participation rate in 3 of 4 games, including in week 4 when the Titans were rolling the Bengals. Derrick Henry has handled over 70% of the team rushing attempts in all 4 games this year, but it’s a great sign for Spears that he’s still playing that kind of snap share in games with positive game script. I wouldn’t plug in Spears this week – the Colts rank 5th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs, the plays where Spears can do the most damage - but if he’s floating around on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues, he probably shouldn’t be. He’s a dynamic back who is going to have breakthrough games at some point.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 5: @Min.): Rice has yet to hit 12 PPR points in a game this season, but it feels like it’s coming soon, possibly as soon as this week. Rashee has seen his playing time go up in the last two weeks at the expense of Skyy Moore and MVS. He’s logged right around a 50% route participation rate in each of the last two games, and he’s drawing targets on an incredible 32% of his routes run. He also leads the team with 6 red zone targets. Kansas City has made a more concerted effort to get the ball into Rice’s hands than any other receiver on the team. This week they face a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most WR fantasy points per game and ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA. The Chiefs also have the 2nd-highest implied point total in the league this week (29 points), so there should be some red zone opportunities. Rice is more of a WR4/5 option for this week, but I like his chances of posting his best fantasy day of the season in an inviting matchup.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 5: @Mia.): You probably didn’t notice it while the Giants were struggling to muster any offense on Monday night against the Seahawks, but Jalin Hyatt was on the field and in a route for 59% of the Giants’ passing dropbacks. It was the first time this season that he’s eclipsed a 40% route participation rate, and it could be a sign that his playing time is increasing. You can chalk the playing time up to garbage time in a blowout loss if you want to, but this is a New York team that has been competitive just once in 4 games, and Hyatt didn’t see this much playing time in the other two blowouts. I think the Giants are looking for anything to spark this offense, and Hyatt’s deep speed could be an answer. The Dolphins are double-digit favorites in this game, so the Giants should again be playing catch-up, but Miami’s pass defense has had significant struggles this season. They rank 26th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 10th-most WR points per game. They also allowed 4 completions of 25+ yards to the Broncos in their week 3 blowout win, including 2 to rookie Marvin Mims Jr. We’ve seen Miami’s defense lose focus when playing with a comfortable lead, and with Hyatt’s deep speed, we only need that to happen a couple times for the rookie to have a fruitful game. This is much more of a DFS consideration rather than a recommendation to plug him into season-long lineups, but I like Hyatt’s chances of getting loose for a deep ball or two on Sunday.
TE Darnell Washington, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): I’m just mentioning Washington here because the Steelers expect to be without Pat Freiermuth for a couple weeks with a hamstring injury, and that likely means a bigger role is coming for Washington in those games. He’s already played a snap share above 40% in each of the last 3 games, and I’d expect his route participation rate to come up with Muth sidelined. It was third-string tight end Connor Heyward who drew 4 targets in week 1 when Freiermuth was banged up, but Washington has a lot more size than Heyward and could be an attractive red zone target. I wouldn’t plug Washington into lineups this week against Baltimore (the Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest TE points per game), but he’s worth a flyer in deep TE premium leagues in case he takes a true lead tight end role ahead of Heyward. The Steelers face a bottom-10 TE defense in week 7, and Freiermuth might not be back yet for that game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.