Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by David Biggs
Take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Currently, my rankings are sitting at #10 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com. In the vast majority of fantasy football leagues, this week marks the championship matchups and - if you're still in the running for the 'ship - is the most important of all! Pay attention to all of the player news & injury reports that come out throughout the week and good luck!
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 17 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
33.7 Fantasy Points
This year hasn't been a good one for Cam Akers (or the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams), but they certainly took all their frustrations out on the Denver Broncos in a Christmas bashing they won't soon forget. Akers scored 32% of his season total on Sunday, and winning some bold fantasy managers their game. 23 carries, 118 yards, 3 TDs, and another 2 for 29 through the air made Akers the highest scoring fantasy player of the week. His total this week is higher than his two best previous games combined. It took Akers until week 12 to pass 33.7 fantasy points this season. Now, he's averaged 5.2 yards per carry the last 2 games and is lined up for a matchup with the Chargers next week, who are giving up the 3rd most points to opposing RBs.
67% of His Season Points
From the "most obscure name I could find" department, I present to you Shane Zylstra, TE on the Detroit Lions. Going into Week 16, Zylstra had 5 receptions on the season. On Saturday, he had another 5 receptions on 6 targets, both stats doubling his season total. He also caught 3 touchdowns, putting up 23.10 points, helping, in all likelihood, zero teams across all of fantasy football. He's rostered in 0% of leagues in Fleaflicker, so if he's actually on someone's team, it's basically a rounding error. Zylstra was one of 4 tight ends to score over 20 points this week. The previous high was only 2 different TEs scoring at least 20 points in the same week.
13 Kickers with 10+ Points
I haven’t spent a lot of time on kickers this year, usually, I’m either praising huge performances or decrying their use in fantasy football altogether. This week, I just want to say that I’m impressed that there were so many good performances, and so many of them went unnoticed in our drinkfive.com league. Going into the Monday night game, there are 13 kickers who scored 10 or more points in Week 16. Leading the pack was Rams kicker Matt Gay, who was a perfect 9 for 9 on the night. He had 6 extra points and 3 field goals – two of them over 50 yards. 8 other kickers scored at least 15 points – big swings for the fantasy semifinals, though only 2 teams in the drinkfive league had any of those kickers on their roster. Kickers can swing a game, but damn are they still just a crapshoot all the time.
21 D/ST Points
The Los Angeles Rams really did have a complete game, appearing in every category of the article so far. Well, Tyler Higbee did not get mentioned among the TEs, but he was one of them who scored over 20 points this week. The D/ST put together their best game of the season by far. They had 21 points thanks to 4 INTs, one of them returned 85 yards for a TD and 6 sacks. They crushed their previous season-high, which was just 9 points from way back in weeks 1 & 2. In another example of a positional crapshoot, there were only 1 of the top 8 defenses rostered in the drinkfive league – congrats to Tad for figuring out that the Patriots were still a good start against the Bengals. Or, maybe he just got lucky that Burrow threw a pick-six in what was essentially garbage time.
3.4 Fantasy Points
To complete my LA Rams theme today, I went digging for a wide receiver to break down, figuring they certainly had someone put up big numbers, with them scoring 51 points total. Page 1, nothing. Page 2, nada. Page 3, come on, I must have missed something. I finally reached page 4 and found Van Jefferson, the WR65 on the week, with a whopping 3.4 fantasy points. Jefferson had 3 receptions on 5 targets, good for 19 yards. I won’t claim to have done all the research, but I cannot think of a time when a team has had more than twice as many points as receiving yards of their leading WR. This game was a proper anomaly.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the fantasy semifinals for most leagues, and it’s going to be a challenging week to set lineups. Frigid weather across the US this Christmas could result in some low-scoring NFL games, and some low-scoring fantasy matchups to go with it. For the season, the average NFL game has seen an average of 44.2 combined points scored, but this week 10 of the 16 games have Vegas over/under totals below 42 points. We could see limited passing game production in those games affected by the temperature, especially the games where the wind will be a problem like in Chicago and Cleveland. Keep that in mind this week as you set your lineups and pay attention to up-to-date weather reports on game day.
Week 15 was a disappointing one for the rookies in general. The standouts came from unexpected places. The highest scoring rookie QB was Brock Purdy. At running back, the top two were Tyler Allgeier and Jaylen Warren. Jahan Dotson and Rashid Shaheed paced the rookie receivers, and the top rookie tight ends were Peyton Hendershot and Teagan Quitoriano. Raise your hand if you had any of those guys other than Purdy in your lineups. Can you go back to the rookies who had been more reliable prior to last week with your season on the line – Kenneth Walker III, Garrett Wilson, Isiah Pacheco, Christian Watson, Bam Knight, Greg Dulcich, etc.? That’s what I’m here to talk about this week.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s jump into week 16…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 16: @KC): Walker returned from injury last week and just barely cracked the top-24 PPR backs for the week, but that was an encouraging result given the matchup he was facing. His 79 scrimmage yards were the 2nd-highest total the 49ers have allowed to any running back this year, and Kansas City is a much more favorable matchup this week. The Chiefs have allowed the 13th-most RB points per game this year, and Walker has been a top-24 finisher in each of the last 8 games that he’s been healthy.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Wilson has 75+ yards in 6 of the last 7 games, and this week faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. The floor is definitely lower for Wilson with Zach Wilson at QB, but Zach started 4 of those last 7 games. The ceiling here is too high to sit Garrett if you have him just because Zach Wilson is at QB. The bigger concern in this game is the weather. It’s going to be cold, rainy, and windy on Thursday night in New Jersey, but again the ceiling is still here. You’d better have a stud ahead of him if you sit Garrett in this one. The matchup is very good, and Wilson has been producing in spite of Zach in most of their recent games together.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): Purdy has continued to impress since taking over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s accounted for 7 TDs in nearly 3 full games under center and he finished as the QB8 and QB14 in the last two weeks. There have been some concerning underlying numbers – Purdy’s on-target % according to Pro-Football Reference would rank behind 26 of 33 qualified QBs despite an average target depth of just 6 yards, and Purdy was bailed out last week by a dropped interception – but the 49ers play-calling and surrounding talent continue to put Purdy in positions to succeed, and he’s doing enough to take advantage. The Commanders’ pass defense has been solid lately, allowing 200 or fewer passing yards in their last 5 games, and allowing no more than 1 TD in each of the last 4, but I expect the game plan here to continue to give Purdy easy opportunities. He doesn’t have enough ceiling to be a QB1, but he should be a solid QB2 option again this week, even in a tougher matchup.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Sea.): Pacheco didn’t have the blow-up game I was hoping for last week against the Texans thanks to a fumble lost and zero TDs, but he topped 80 scrimmage yards for the 6th-straight game and gets another silver-platter matchup this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the 2nd-most RB points per game and has coughed up over 120 rushing yards per week to opposing backs. Pacheco should be a solid RB2 this week in a game where the Chiefs may opt to run more than usual in frigid temperatures. Kansas City has the highest implied point total of the week at 29 points.
RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Bam had a disappointing game last week against a resurgent Detroit run defense, totaling just 23 yards on 13 carries. The sledding gets a little easier this week against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 14th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 10th-most points per game to the position. The weather on Thursday night will be wet and windy, so both teams will likely look to run the ball more than usual. Knight has handled at least 59% of the team’s rushing attempts in each of the last 3 games and should continue to operate as the lead rusher in this one. He’s battled an ankle injury in practice this week, but he practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go. I like him as a back-end RB2 this week in what should be a more run-heavy game plan than we typically see from the Jets.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 16: @Ari.): White was a big letdown last week. He handled a reasonable 12 touches, but only one of those was a reception and he totaled just 43 scrimmage yards. It appears that Fournette is back in the 1A position in this backfield, but his advantage over White isn’t a substantial one. Both backs remain very involved. The Bucs are a touchdown favorite this week against a sputtering Cardinals team that will be starting its 3rd-string QB. Arizona is in the bottom 10 in the NFL at limiting RB receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs, and allows the 8th-most running back points per game. Rachaad could see extended opportunities in the 2nd half if the Bucs are playing with the lead, and I expect him to get back into the RB2 range this week in a plus matchup.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 16: @Mia.): This game looks to have the most shootout potential on the slate this week thanks to injuries and weather affecting other matchups. Green Bay will need to throw against a Miami defense that is much softer against the pass than against the run - they rank 26th in pass defense DVOA and 11th in run defense DVOA. Miami’s aggressive defense probably is more favorable for Romeo Doubs than Watson, as he’ll get some of the shorter throws to beat a blitzing defense, but Rodgers has made a point of getting Watson involved in the red zone. Prior to last Monday’s game, Watson had scored 8 TDs in the previous 4 contests, and on Monday Rodgers threw the ball Watson’s way 3 times in the red zone, and twice from the 5-yard line or closer. Watson’s TD upside gives him too much ceiling to leave benched unless you have great players ahead of him.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): London has posted back-to-back impressive performances, tallying 6-95 on 12 targets and 7-70 on 11 targets over his last two games despite having a different QB for each. They are the only games where he’s topped 50 yards since week 3. It’s a promising development for the rookie for the stretch run. He topped a 40% target share and 40% air yardage share in each game and figures to continue being the focal point of the passing game moving forward. The Ravens have allowed the 9th-most WR points per game, but London will likely see a lot of Marlon Humphrey in coverage – Humphrey ranks 17th out of 122 cornerbacks in coverage grade on Pro Football Focus. We know Atlanta wants to run the ball a lot, and the matchup could be tough, but London should be a good bet for at least 7-8 targets. I wouldn’t expect a week-winning performance, but London should be a solid WR3 option this week.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 16: @LAR): Dulcich face-planted last weekend in a prime matchup with Brett Rypien under center, but I’d advocate going back to the well again this week if you don’t have a clear top-8 option at the position. Dulcich continues to post route participation rates of 80% or better, he gets Russell Wilson back this week, and he’s playing indoors instead of in the unforgiving elements that others will be dealing with. The Rams have been above average at limiting tight ends this year, allowing the 12th-fewest points per game to the position, but they’ve given up a tight end score in 5 of their last 8 games. Dulcich garnered 8 targets in each of Russ’s last 2 starts. I’d trust him as a fringe top-10 TE option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): Allgeier had been quietly very effective rushing the ball for the last month and a half, and he decided to be a bit louder about it in week 15. The rookie piled up 139 yards and a TD on just 17 carries against the Saints last week. It was his best game of the season, but it was also the 5th time in his last 6 games that he’s run for 50+ yards and averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry. You know the Falcons want to run a lot, and Allgeier has been tough to slow down. With that said, I don’t love the matchup here this week. Since the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith ahead of week 9, only 1 running back has rushed for 50+ yards against them (Nick Chubb last week). Allgeier is still splitting this backfield with Cordarrelle Patterson – his 50% share of the team rushing attempts last week was the highest mark he’s hit in any game C-Patt has been active for – and the Ravens allow the 3rd-fewest RB rushing yards per game. Allgeier has just 6 receptions in the last 6 games, so he isn’t going to be a factor in the passing game. You’re going to need a touchdown to get a useful week from the rookie in this one, and Atlanta’s implied point total is just 15 points.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 16: @SF): Robinson has rushed for 85+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games, but he’ll be hard-pressed to do it again this week against the 49ers. Positive or neutral game scripts have been a big part of Robinson’s sustained success, and the Commanders are 7.5-point underdogs this week against a 49er defense that has allowed the fewest running back points per game. Only one running back has rushed for 50+ yards against the 49ers since week 6, and none has run for 60 yards against them all year. Robinson is going to need a touchdown to return value in this game, and the Commanders have an implied Vegas point total of just 16. This is a week where a lot of teams should lean on the ground game due to bad weather. There are several better options to look to this week if you’re using a grinder RB who doesn’t catch many passes.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 16: @SF): Dotson has been coming on in the last couple of weeks, scoring a TD and finishing as a top-18 WR in both meetings with the Giants on either side of the team’s week 14 bye. This week he faces the 49ers, who are a dominant defense against every position except wide receiver. The 49ers have allowed the 13th-most wide receiver points per game, but the guys who have produced against them have mostly done it with volume. Only 5 receivers all year have reached even a dozen PPR points against San Francisco without seeing at least 9 targets to get there, and 4 of those 5 got in the end zone to do it. Dotson can’t be relied on for volume. He’s topped 6 targets just twice all year, so you’re going to need him to find the end zone for the 3rd straight game to get useful value here. The Commanders’ implied total of just 16 points means that Dotson isn’t a great TD bet. I’d view him as a WR4 this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): Pickens has averaged a robust 26.2 yards per catch over the last two weeks, but his volume has been too inconsistent to trust with your season on the line. The Steelers have leaned into running the football in recent weeks, and the weather for this game will likely cause them to lean even further into it, with negative wind chills and 25 mph winds in the forecast. In normal circumstances, this would be a great spot for Pickens - the Raiders rank 31st in pass defense DVOA – but it's hard to envision the rookie continuing to get by on long-distance catches in an environment where it’ll be hard to throw deep. He’s got enough ceiling that you could start him if you’re desperate, but the floor here scares me.
WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 16: @Cle.): Shaheed was in a route on a whopping 95% of the team’s passing dropbacks last weekend, and this week both Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry have been ruled out with injury. Shaheed could serve as the team’s de-facto WR1, but I’m not sure that’s going to lead to a spike game in harsh weather conditions in Cleveland. Shaheed has made his living this season on big plays, and it’s hard to envision any big pass plays hitting in 30 mph winds and snow. Maybe Shaheed hits a big play on a designed rushing attempt or special teams return, but any pass catchers will be dicey options in what should be a strange game. I think we could see a ton of Taysom Hill in this game for the Saints. I wouldn’t want to roll with Shaheed in these conditions.
WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 16: @Car.): Williams didn’t see a noticeable leap in playing time last week, running a route on just 16% of the team passing dropbacks in their win vs. the Jets. Jameson earned just one target, although that one target likely would’ve been a 45-yard touchdown if Jared Goff hadn’t underthrown it, but that’s what Williams is at this point. He’s a dart throw at a big play that’s really only an option in DFS formats and the deepest of leagues. The Panthers are a worse pass defense than the Jets, ranking 21st in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve only allowed 3 completions of 40+ yards all season.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Burks should be back this week after missing the past two games with a concussion, but he returns to Malik Willis under center. Willis has averaged just 13 pass attempts per game in his two starts this season, so even if the Titans don’t ease Burks back in, there isn’t going to be enough passing volume to rely on him in fantasy leagues this week. I’d be surprised if he gets to 5 targets with Willis under center, and the Texans allow the 4th-fewest WR points per game.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): The Texans were the last opponent to hold Okonkwo under 30 receiving yards back in week 8, and while Chig’s role is not the same today as it was then, Malik Willis returning to the starting lineup makes it likely the Texans hold Okonkwo under 30 again. Okonkwo had been building steam with Tannehill. He had been targeted at least 5 times in each of the last 4 games and scored 10+ PPR points in each of the last 3, but passing volume will be non-existent with Willis back under center. Malik completed a total of 11 passes in his two previous starts. Okonkwo did haul in a 48-yard catch in one of those two starts, but he has no floor if he doesn’t hit a big play. That’s too much risk for me in the league semifinals.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): Pickett should be good-to-go this week and return to the starting lineup, but his outlook isn’t any different than what I described last week. He’s still got no more than 1 total TD in any of his last 8 full games played, has hit 15+ fantasy points just once all year, and has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 4 of his last 5 full games. The Raiders look like a tasty matchup on paper, allowing the 7th-most QB points per game, but the 4 highest point totals they allowed to the position all happened before their week 6 bye. No QB in their last 9 games has accounted for more than 2 touchdowns, and only one QB in the last 5 weeks has accounted for more than 1 score. Pickett has a little more yardage upside than we’ve seen in recent weeks (the Raiders have only held one QB all year below 200 passing yards – Mac Jones last week), but his lack of ceiling makes him a fringe QB2 again.
QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 16: @Bal.): Ridder’s first start looked pretty similar to what we’ve seen from Marcus Mariota this season – Mariota averaged 23 pass attempts and 34 rushing yards per game in his starts this year, and Ridder was at 26 attempts and 38 rushing yards in his debut – but Ridder wasn’t nearly as efficient throwing the football as Mariota has been. Ridder completed just 50% of his passes (lower than all but one single-game mark for Mariota), and he threw for just 97 yards. This week he faces a Baltimore defense that ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA and hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to rush for 30+ yards since week 4. The rushing potential of Ridder means that you could throw him into a lineup as your QB2 if you’re desperate, but the floor here is low in Ridder’s 2nd career start. I’d rather start the Ravens’ defense this week than Ridder as a QB2.
QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): Ryan Tannehill suffered an ankle injury and will spend the rest of the season on IR, so it should be Willis under center the rest of the way. Willis made two starts earlier in the season, including one against the Texans, and they totaled just 9.6 fantasy points in those two games. He completed just 11 total passes while Derrick Henry piled up 49 carries. Willis could go out and run for 80 yards and still not post a useful fantasy day with the kind of passing volume I’d expect here. Willis has arguably the highest ceiling of any of the 3 QBs listed in this section, but easily the lowest floor.
RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Was.): Mason almost made good on my prediction last week that he would get into the end zone, but the Seahawks managed to run him out of bounds at the 2-yard line at the end of a 55-yard run. That breakaway run helped Mason end up with his best rushing total of the season, but his overall usage is troubling for his outlook moving forward. I expected Mason could see a spike in usage with Deebo Samuel not stealing rushing touches, but instead the 49ers leaned more into Christian McCaffrey handling a workhorse role. Mason played just 7 snaps, with most of them coming in the 4th quarter with the game decided. The 49ers face off this week with a Washington defense that ranks 4th in run defense DVOA and allows the 7th-fewest RB points per game. Mason has set a new career-high in rushing yards in each of the last 5 weeks, but I don’t see a path to him making it 6 straight.
RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong Jr., NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): There was excitement for both rookie backs last week with Damien Harris ruled out and Rhamondre Stevenson very questionable ahead of the game, but Stevenson dashed those hopes when he ended up active. The Patriots eased Rhamondre in early, but he dominated touches in the second half and overtime and finished with 168 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. The two rookies still totaled 12 combined touches, but Strong is the one who stood out for fantasy purposes with 3 targets and receptions. Both are bad options this week even if Damien Harris is out again, as they’ll get limited touches against a Cincy defense that allows the 13th-fewest RB points per game. Damien Harris is a free agent at season’s end, so Strong could be worth a speculative add in dynasty leagues where he’s still available. He could be the RB2 behind Rhamondre next season.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Williams has just 8 carries and 3 targets over the last 3 games. Cam Akers has been re-established as the Rams’ RB1, and there isn’t enough playing time for Williams to be considered for lineups.
RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Despite being the Cardinals’ RB2, Ingram has just 11 carries for 32 yards in total over the past 6 weeks. This is a one-man backfield.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Pierce’s production has been inconsistent from week to week this year, even since he’s stepped into more of a full-time role with Jeff Saturday in charge, and he’ll be working with a new QB this week in Nick Foles. Pierce has averaged 4.3 targets per game over the last 6 games, but he’s topped 30 yards just once in that span and the Chargers allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game. Even if Foles provides a boost to the passing game, Pierce isn’t a good bet to make for lineups this week.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): Thornton has now run a route on more than 90% of the Patriots' passing dropbacks in each of the past two games, and he has 5 catches for 49 yards on 9 targets to show for it. Mac Jones has regressed as a passer this year with Matt Patricia calling the plays, and the Bengals rank 11th in pass defense DVOA. On top of that, Thornton was added to the injury report on Wednesday. A mid-week addition to the injury report is never a good sign. I wouldn’t expect a full-time role for the rookie this week, and we’ve already seen him not produce with a full-time workload.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. NO): Bell was inactive last weekend with a toe injury, and I’d expect his usage to be limited this week even if he plays. This game currently has the lowest Vegas over/under in 14 years at just 31.5. This is not a game where you should be thinking about using ancillary parts like Bell in any format.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 16: vs. Sea.): Moore’s route participation rate has decreased in each of the last 3 weeks, reaching just 19% last Sunday. He’s scored just 4.1 PPR points in total over those 3 games, and while the Seahawks' defense isn’t good, they’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest WR points per game. There’s nothing here this week.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Jones played a season-high 68% of the Bears’ offensive snaps last week with Chase Claypool inactive and Equanimeous St. Brown leaving early with a concussion. He turned that playing time into 2 touches for 3 yards. The weather in Chicago this weekend isn’t going to be conducive to big passing numbers, the Bears throw the ball less than any other team in the league, and the Bills rank 7th in pass defense DVOA. There isn’t a good reason to consider Jones this week even if ESB and Claypool are both out again. Even the return of N’Keal Harry (who practiced in full Tuesday) could push Velus back to the bench.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 16: @Cle.): In case you missed the update, Olave has been ruled out for this week’s game against the Browns, along with Jarvis Landry.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. TB): McBride followed up his best game of the season in week 14 with an even better game in week 15, tallying 4-55 on 5 targets against the Broncos. It’s a promising sign for the rookie, and the Bucs have allowed 3 tight end scores in their last 4 games, but Trace McSorley at QB makes McBride too risky to roll the dice on outside of DFS formats. For what it’s worth, 2 catches and 43 yards of McBride’s output last Sunday came after McSorley entered the game, so there is some appeal as a DFS dart throw.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 16: vs. LAC): Woods’ breakout Monday Night Football performance in week 12 seems like ages ago after he played less than 25% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two games. The switch to Nick Foles at QB throws even more uncertainty into where the Colts’ passing targets will go. Anything more than 5 PPR points would be a positive result for Woods.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. Atl.): In the two games where Tyler Huntley has played more than 70% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps this year, Likely has averaged 3 catches for 24 yards on 3.5 targets. Atlanta allows the 4th-most tight end points per game this season, but that doesn’t mean you should bet on Likely substantially outperforming those averages. Mark Andrews is much more likely to be the beneficiary. I’d expect Likely to be back in that 5-6 PPR point range at best.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): Ferguson should return this week after missing last week’s game with a concussion, but he’s topped 15 yards just twice all year. Hendershot has scored a touchdown on 3 of his last 7 offensive touches, but those have come over the course of 8 games. Both players remain just TD dart throws for DFS lineups.
Rookies Who May as Well be on Byes: RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Zamir White, LV, RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, TE Cole Turner, WAS, TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Patriots haven’t even hinted at Zappe possibly starting this week, but there has been plenty of noise among Pats fans that it’s time to make the switch. Mac Jones has been really struggling over the last few weeks, even without considering his missed tackle of Chandler Jones. Mac had a season-low 42% completion percentage last weekend against a mediocre Raiders pass defense. If he struggles again this week (a likely outcome against a ‘fairly tough’ Bengals’ defense), we could see Zappe starting in week 16 in a must-win game against the Dolphins. Miami has allowed the 4th-most QB points per game this season. If you’re in a superflex semifinal this week, and you’re relying on a one-game spot starter like Zach Wilson, Gardner Minshew, or Tyler Huntley, you could possibly get ahead of the curve for your week 17 QB2 by picking up Zappe now.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 16: @Chi.): The Bills are not likely to deploy their usual high-flying passing offense on Saturday in Chicago in frigid, windy conditions. Cook has been a bigger part of the rushing attack in recent weeks, handling 38.3% of the team’s running back rushing attempts over the last 3 weeks, and the Bears rank just 27th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-most RB rushing yards per game. If the Bills lean on the run game, Cook should be in line to be a borderline RB2/RB3. He’s finished with 10+ PPR points in two of the last 3 games.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. LV): The Steelers have transitioned to being a more run-heavy football team over the last 6 weeks or so, and for much of that the prime beneficiary was Najee Harris, but the Steelers made a push to get Warren more involved last week. Najee Harris did pop up on the injury report this week with a hip injury, but Warren was involved right away on the first drive last week, so this shift doesn’t seem injury related. Warren finished the game with a season-high 11 carries for 38 yards and a TD and hauled in an 11-yard reception. This week he faces a Las Vegas defense that allows the 5th-most RB points per game and ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA. If his increased usage carries over to this week, Warren has some intriguing DFS upside at just $4,600 for showdown contests on DraftKings. There’s not enough usage here for Warren to get slotted into normal lineups though.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 16: @Mia.): The Packers didn’t hesitate to get Doubs worked back into the offense in his first game back since week 9 on Monday night. Doubs didn’t play a full-time role, handling just 23 offensive snaps, but he was targeted on 5 of those snaps (including one on Green Bay’s third play from scrimmage) and finished with 5 catches for 55 yards. I’d expect his playing time to go up this week with the Packers fighting for a playoff spot. Miami ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA, and this is one of the few outdoor games this week where the weather shouldn’t be a problem. The Dolphins blitz at the 7th-highest rate in the league, which leads to quicker, shorter throws, and that favors Doubs (his aDOT is 3 yards lower than Allen Lazard or Christian Watson). I like Doubs’ chances at another solid game to build on what he did last week. Something like 6-70 would be a positive development.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Otton’s Cam Brate streak survived another week. He still hasn’t eclipsed 7 PPR points in any game that Cam Brate has been active for (he put up 10+ in 4 of the 5 games Brate missed), but I like his chances to break that streak this week. Arizona has allowed 70 receiving yards and/or a touchdown to a tight end in 7 of their past 8 games, and Otton is the tight end on the Bucs that is likeliest to take advantage. He’s still risky for playoff lineups, but there is some upside for DFS lineups or if you’re in a real pinch in a season-long league.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 16: @Min.): Bellinger has some added upside this week as he gets the most favorable matchup he’s faced since returning from his eye injury. The rookie is playing a full-time role with a route participation rate above 80% in two of the last 3 games, and he’s earned 4 targets per game in those contests against good tight end defenses. This week he faces the Vikings, who allow the 13th-most tight end points per game and rank 27th in pass defense DVOA. Bellinger has a real chance to creep into the top-12 tight ends this week despite averaging just 16 yards per game in the last 3 weeks.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend and advance to your title game. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Football…I mean…FOOTBALL!
What can I say here about the week that we all just experienced. No we didn’t just watch, it was an experience that we will remember where we were when we were watching!
The best part about it – who’s to say that we won’t get an even more exciting week this time around?
Happy Holidays everyone!!
Week 16 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – SAN FRANCISCO over Washington – I has the Commanders on the top line last week and they lost – their punishment this week is to be on the opposite end of the top line!
15 – MIAMI over Green Bay – Watching the Packers try and stop, or at least slow down the Dolphins offense will be a fun way for Bears fans to spend Christmas!
14 – TENNESSEE over Houston – The Texans have made some games exciting against far superior teams, but they still find ways to lose.
13 – Buffalo over CHICAGO – Is it me or does it seem like blizzard-like conditions just seem to follow the Bills this year?
12 – KANSAS CITY over Seattle – This just seems like a week the Chiefs will want to make a statement. My BOLD PREDICITON for this week is that PATRICK MAHOMES WILL THROW FOR OVER 400 YARDS.
11 – MINNESOTA over New York Giants – Doesn’t it seem like a totally Vikings thing to have the biggest comeback in league history and STILL not be the game of the week that everyone talks about??
10 – NEW YORK JETS over Jacksonville – Maybe it’s not the end for Zach Wilson…
9 – CLEVELAND over New Orleans – Take the under on this one for sure.
8 – Cincinnati over NEW ENGLAND – If you lose the way you did last week, you don’t get to beat one of the hottest teams in the league…even at home.
7 – DALLAS over Philadelphia – Safe to say that not having Jalen Hurts under center will … well…hurt (pause for hysterical laughter/audible groan and eye rolls).
6 – Los Angeles Chargers over INDIANAPOLIS – This was supposed to be a lot more exciting game than it will end up being.
5 – Detroit over CAROLINA – We’re all in on the Lions playoff bandwagon, right?
4 – Las Vegas over PITTSBURGH – If ever there was a way to reignite the spark for a final Raiders playoff push! … … … but it’s still #FireJoshMcDaniels
3 – BALTIMORE over Atlanta – This will be boring…there really isn’t anything else to say about this one.
2 – Tampa Bay over ARIZONA – Tom Brady is at the point where he MIGHT barely beat a team led by a backup quarterback…isn’t that great?
1 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Denver – Obviously we all thought the defending champs would be at a place where if you think they’ll win you keep them on the one-point line, right?
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- Written by David Biggs
Take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Currently, my rankings are sitting at #3 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com. With injuries just continuing to pile up, there are a ton of decisions that will require the help of this week's injury and practice reports to make. Tune in to local beat reporters over national broadcasters when it comes to situations that are being held close to the chest by coaches and other team staff.
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 16 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully your squad is still alive and kicking. The playoffs are a different animal than the regular season, but you shouldn’t let that change your approach to building your lineup. It’s up to you who you start, but I wouldn’t recommend deviating from the strategies that got you this far. No matter how you choose to decide on your starters, make sure that the decisions you make are ones you can live with if they prove to be wrong, whether those decisions go along with consensus or against it. I’m here to help you make those decisions when it comes to rookies, but the final decision for your lineup is on you. One thing I do want to emphasize this week – make sure to take note of the start times for this week’s games. There are 3 games on Saturday staggered throughout the day. That means there are 8 different start times for games this week. If you’re considering anyone who is questionable to play, make sure you know what time they play at, and make sure you know the start times of your backup options as well. You don’t want to get to noon Sunday, find out a player will be out, and realize that your fallback option played on Saturday. Be aware of the start times.
Week 14 was a quiet one for the rookies due to byes and injuries, but we did get to see Brock Purdy continue to demonstrate that the ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ moniker doesn’t apply to him, and we got to see Jameson Williams score his first NFL touchdown. 6 different rookie running backs finished as top-20 PPR backs for the week, including unexpected performances from Pierre Strong Jr. and Raheem Blackshear. Garrett Wilson was the lone top-30 rookie WR for the week, but George Pickens topped 70 yards for the 4th time this season. The lone standout at tight end was Chig Okonkwo, who finished the week as the PPR TE2 last week after I touted him having top-5 upside vs the Jaguars. We’ve got a LOT more rookies back in action this week, and it’s going to be messy to decipher which ones can help you survive and advance. Luckily, I’m here to steer you in the right direction.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s get into week 15…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 15: @Hou.): For at least this week, Pacheco has graduated from the ranks of the borderline running backs. The Chiefs are two-touchdown road favorites against a Houston team that allows the most RB points per game, and Pacheco has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 5 straight games. The Texans have allowed multiple RB rushing scores in 6 of their 13 games this season, and Kansas City has the highest implied point total of the week at 31.75 points. Pacheco’s floor this week should be right around 10 points, but he’s got a clear top-10 ceiling this week in the best possible matchup. The Texans are allowing 141 running back rushing yards per game.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Wilson continued to thrive without Zach Wilson at QB last weekend – posting a 6-78 game against the Bills. It was Wilson’s worst outing of the three games since Zach was benched, and he still finished as the PPR WR26 for the week. Garrett now has 75+ yards in 5 of his last 6 games, and this week faces a Detroit defense that has allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game. Wilson could be in line for a blow-up game this week, and you can’t sit him if you’ve got him.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Olave has reached double-digit PPR points in 10 of his last 11 games, and this week gets one of the most favorable matchups he’s faced all season. Atlanta ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat and has allowed the 6th-most WR points per game. Both outside corners for the Falcons have allowed a passer rating of more than 103.0 on throws into their coverage, and the one that Olave is projected to match up with most often, Darren Hall, has allowed more than 9 yards per target thrown in his direction. Olave has a reasonably safe WR2 floor as usual, but he has a bit more upside than usual in this one.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 15: @Sea.): This recommendation is specific to superflex leagues, but Purdy has quickly shown that he can produce useful fantasy numbers with the weapons on this offense, even if his results are masking some concerning underlying numbers. Purdy finished as the QB8 for week 14, tallying 3 total TDs against a tough Bucs defense, but since taking over for an injured Jimmy G, Purdy has been on-target on just 70.8% of his throws according to Pro Football Reference. It’s a small sample so far, but that mark would tie him with Carson Wentz for 28th among qualified QBs, just behind Davis Mills, Derek Carr, and Kenny Pickett. Luckily for Purdy, the 49ers are adept at scheming their guys open where Purdy can get away with being imprecise with his accuracy. He’ll likely still be able to get away it this week against a Seattle defense that ranks 18th in pass defense DVOA, but it may be a problem against stingier pass defenses later this season. Purdy should be a higher-end QB2 this week.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 15: vs. NYG): Robinson has played 5 games since JD McKissic went on injured reserve after week 8. He’s touched the ball at least 15 times in each game, and his production has been gaining steam. Robinson has 85+ scrimmage yards in 3 of his last 4 games, and 100+ in each of the last 2. The Commanders have been committed to feeding B-Rob, and he finished as the RB17 (half-PPR) in the first meeting with the Giants ahead of the bye. The Giants have now given up 90+ rushing yards to an opposing back in 6 of their last 8 games and allowed two backs to rush for 60+ in one of the other two games, and they rank 31st in run defense DVOA. As always, Robinson’s sporadic passing game usage limits his upside in PPR formats, but he has a great chance to break into the top-24 backs for the week on rushing production alone in this one.
RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 15: vs. Det.): Knight has been active for just 3 games this season, and he’s finished as a top-12 back twice, and a top-24 back in the other game as well. Detroit has been a tough defense for running backs over the last month and a half. In the first 6 games of the season, they allowed 9 different running backs to reach double-digit fantasy points (half-PPR). They haven’t allowed any running back to reach that mark in the past 7 games. It could be an uphill fight for Bam to get back into the top-24 backs for a 4th-straight week, but he’s handled at least 14 carries and two receptions in each game he’s played. Knight is a floor play, but volume should get him through to a borderline RB2 performance once again, even in a tough matchup.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): White is about as borderline as borderline can get this week. His fantasy output has been buoyed by gaudy reception totals in recent weeks. The rookie has caught at least 5 passes in each of the last 3 games, but he’s been just the RB27 in PPG in non-PPR formats over those last 3 weeks. It’s concerning that Leonard Fournette has run more routes than White in each of the last two games, but the Bucs throw to the running backs enough that it hasn’t really hurt White. The Bengals rank 13th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-fewest RB points per game, but White finished last week as the PPR RB20 against a much tougher San Francisco defense. Whether or not you play White this week should really depend on what format you play in. If it’s full PPR, it’ll be hard to sit White unless you’re starting studs ahead of him. If you play non-PPR, it’ll be hard to justify starting Rachaad. 8-10 carries and 5 or so catches feel like a reasonable expectation here, but that probably only means about 50-60 yards. It’s up to you what to do with that information.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 15: vs. LAR): Watson has totaled 8 TDs in his last 4 games and finished as a top-10 WR in all 4, and this week faces a defense that has allowed 15 completions of 30+ yards and ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA. Watson has been playing a full-time role in that span, and I don’t expect the return of Romeo Doubs to put much of a dent into that. There’s a lower floor here than the last few games would indicate – Watson hasn’t caught more than 4 balls in any game this year – but the ceiling is too high to leave him on your bench unless you have studs ahead of him. The Rams have not been the same pass defense that we saw last year. They’ve allowed the 10th-most WR points per game.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 15: @Car.): I talked up Pickens’ chances last week to put up 60-70 yards against the Ravens, and he made me look smart by finishing with 78 yards, albeit on just 3 targets. He gets another favorable matchup this week against a Carolina team that has allowed the 8th-most WR points per game and coughed up at least 5-60-1 to THREE different receivers last week, but Pickens is going to need more than 3 targets for you to rely on him again. I’ve got faith that his targets go back up as long as Kenny Pickett is able to return to action for this game. Pickett still needs to clear the concussion protocol but has been practicing in a limited capacity. The cornerback Pickens figures to face most often, CJ Henderson, has a PFF coverage grade of 50.5, which ranks 103rd out of 120 graded corners. I think Pickens comes through with another solid WR3 game this week in Carolina.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 15: vs. Ari.): Dulcich’s final stat line last weekend was underwhelming, but 8 targets for a 2nd straight game is worth getting excited about. The Broncos may be without Russell Wilson this week, but don’t be too scared by that. Dulcich posted a season-high 9 targets in Brett Rypien’s lone start of the season, finishing with 6 catches for 51 yards. The Broncos’ pass catchers are banged up. Courtland Sutton and Kendall Hinton are both not practicing as of Wednesday (both played in Rypien’s previous start). That means Dulcich should be in line for a prominent role once again, and he faces the worst tight end defense in the league this week. Seattle has given up PPR totals of 39.9 to TJ Hockenson and 34.08 to Taysom Hill this season…and the Cardinals have still given up more points to tight ends than Seattle has. The only teams all year to not have a tight end reach 10 PPR points against the Cardinals are the Panthers and the pre-Hockenson Vikings. Dulcich should be peppered with targets, and it would be a surprise if the Cardinals prevented him from finishing as a top-8 tight end this week, no matter who is at QB for Denver.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Okonkwo has been coming on strong in recent weeks. What started as Okonkwo making weekly splash plays (four 30+ yard catches in a 5-week span) has evolved into the rookie carving out a significant role and closing in on Austin Hooper for the lead tight end spot. Okonkwo was at a 50% route participation rate or higher in each of the last two weeks (his first weeks at that mark for the season), and he’s been targeted 5 or more times in each of the last 3 games. The Chargers have allowed 5 catches of 25+ yards to opposing tight ends in the last 3 weeks, and I like Okonkwo’s chance to get at least one. The rookie has been wildly impressive when he gets on the field. For the season, Travis Kelce has been targeted on 27% of his routes run and averaged 2.4 yards per route run per PlayerProfiler.com. Okonkwo has been targeted on 31.6% of his routes and is averaging 3.27 yards per route run. That’s right…he’s been more efficient than Travis Kelce. I’m not saying that Chig would continue to perform at that level if he were on the field as much as Kelce, but I am saying that a 50% route participation rate is enough for Okonkwo to have top-10 TE upside with the way he’s playing.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 15: @NO): Ridder takes over under center this week, but he’s likely to have to deal with the same passing volume concerns that have plagued Marcus Mariota’s fantasy production all year. Mariota attempted more than 25 passes just 4 times all season, and I’d expect the game plan to be similar with Ridder at QB. The Saints rank 12th in pass defense DVOA and could get Marshon Lattimore back this week, so this isn’t an ideal soft landing spot for the rookie to make his first start. He’ll need to hit on a couple deep throws or put up rushing production to find a way to a fantasy-worthy stat line. There is some hope on the rushing front. The Saints have allowed 4 different QBs this season to put up 8 fantasy points or more with their legs, including Mariota in week 1. I expect Ridder will have some rushing success, but will also have some typical 1st game struggles throwing the ball. I’d view him as a fringe QB2 in his debut this week. I’d consider rolling the dice here if your other QB2 option is someone like Taylor Heinicke, Kenny Pickett, or Baker Mayfield, but I likely wouldn’t if I had a safer choice.
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 15: vs. SF): If Walker is active, you’re probably going to start him, but I wanted to make it clear that there’s significant risk here. Walker wasn’t healthy enough to play on Sunday, so I’d be surprised if he plays his normal full workload just 4 days later even though he was removed from the injury report. The 49ers have been the stingiest RB defense in the league. Only 4 backs all season have scored double-digit points against the 49ers (half-PPR). Only one of those players reached 15 points, and the 49ers went out and traded for him afterward (Christian McCaffrey). Walker has scored at least a dozen PPR points in each of the last 7 full games he’s played, so if you think he’s going to get a full workload, he’s a viable RB2. Just know that he’s a floor play in this tough matchup.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 15: @NO): Allgeier has been an efficient runner in recent weeks, putting up 50+ yards and 4.9 or more yards per carry in each of the last 3 games before the bye last week, but he totaled just 1 reception and zero TDs in those 3 games. That means he’s scored fewer than 8 PPR points in all 3 of them. The Saints have allowed the 12th-fewest RB points per game, and Allgeier’s role just doesn’t lend itself to big fantasy production unless he gets into the end zone. With all 32 teams in action this week, Allgeier is just a borderline RB3 for non-PPR leagues.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. Mia.): Cook’s playing time and usage has been on the upswing lately, but it’s also been inconsistent. Cook topped a 40% snap share in each of the last two weeks (the only two times he’s hit that mark), but his role looked vastly different in those games. He handled 20 touches against the Patriots and piled up 105 scrimmage yards in week 13, but he followed that up with 5 touches and 15 yards in week 14. Even in his good weeks, Cook splits the backfield work with Devin Singletary, and the Dolphins are a solid run defense, ranking 8th in run defense DVOA. There’s not enough ceiling here (Cook has just 1 game all year with 10+ PPR points) to justify the risk of another floor game with your season on the line.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 15: @GB): Kyren has now been a distant RB2 behind Cam Akers for back-to-back weeks. Green Bay is a weak run defense, ranking dead last in run defense DVOA, but Kyren isn’t likely to take advantage of the matchup on just a handful of touches. His clearest path to fantasy relevance is receiving production, but the Packers have allowed the 6th-fewest RB receptions per game this season.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 15: @NO): London finally had the breakthrough game we’ve been waiting on ahead of the Falcons’ bye week, but how will he follow it up with a new starting QB this week? I would temper your expectations. Marcus Mariota and Arthur Smith have shouldered a lot of the blame for London’s disappointing rookie season, but London has had a substantial hand in it himself. According to PlayerProfiler, London ranks just 65th among wide receivers in ‘win rate vs man’, meaning the percentage of the time that he gets open vs. man coverage. He ranks 58th in overall route win rate, and ranks 92nd in ‘true catch rate’, or his catch rate when you remove all uncatchable passes. Yes, the Falcons’ low passing volume has been a problem for him, as has Mariota’s poor QB play, but London has underperformed as well. Desmond Ridder may be an upgrade over Mariota, but nothing guarantees that, and the Saints seem likely to get Marshon Lattimore back in this one. Atlanta is still going to be a run-first team with Ridder under center, and the Saints will make a concerted effort to limit London after he saw a 50% target share in week 13. There’s upside here, but London is a boom-or-bust WR4 for me this week. He’s put up more than 40 receiving yards just once in his last 10 games.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 15: vs. NYG): The Commanders were slow to work Dotson back into the offense after his return from a hamstring injury in week 10, but he finally seemed close to his normal workload in week 13 ahead of the bye. Dotson was in a route on 90% of the team passing dropbacks, and he tallied 5-54-1 on 9 targets against this same Giants’ defense. I’d be hesitant to trust him to repeat that performance with your season on the line. 6 of Dotson’s 9 targets came in the 4th quarter with the Commanders trying to erase a 7-point deficit, and Taylor Heinicke attempted a season-high 41 passes in that game. Heinicke averaged just 28.5 pass attempts per game in his other 6 starts and hadn’t thrown more than 33 in any one game. On top of that, Dotson just hasn’t consistently earned targets this season. He’s been targeted on just 12% of his routes for the season and hasn’t hit a 20% target rate in any single game this year. If the Commanders are back down to their normal passing volume for this game, Dotson likely sees closer to 5 or 6 targets, and that means you’re relying on him finding the end zone again to return the value you’re hoping for. You could do worse than Dotson this week, but you could also probably do better.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 15: @LAC): Burks isn’t practicing yet this week and still hasn’t cleared the league’s concussion protocol. It’s possible we won’t have a good read on his status until we’re into the weekend. If he does play, he faces off with a Chargers’ defense that has allowed the 12th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 13th in pass defense DVOA. The Chargers have allowed just 4 receivers to reach 12 PPR points in 6 games since their bye week, and 3 of those receivers are among the game’s elites (Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyreek Hill). Burks had been coming on in the weeks prior to his concussion. He was targeted 6 times or more in each of the 3 games before suffering the injury, and he reached 70 yards or scored a TD in 3 straight games (including the one where he was hurt). He has some upside if he plays, but given the matchup, and the fact that the Titans play in the late afternoon Sunday, I’d lean toward sitting Burks. If you do plan on starting him, make sure you have a backup plan who plays as late or later than the Titans ready in case Burks is inactive.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 15: vs. LAR): Doubs is on track to return this week, but I’d advise caution with getting him back into lineups after missing about a month and a half. He likely won’t play his normal allotment of snaps, and the emergence of Christian Watson in his absence means Doubs likely won’t be the priority target in this passing game. The Rams have allowed the 10th-most WR points per game this season, so there’s some upside here, but I like Watson’s chances to cash in that upside more than Doubs’ chances.
WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 15: @NYJ): Williams’ first NFL catch last week was a memorable one. He got wide open for a 41-yard touchdown against Minnesota, but it was his only catch of the day. The Lions are slow-playing Williams’ ramp-up and using him sparingly so far. Jameson posted just a 15% route participation rate last Sunday, and I don’t think you can count on a big jump against the Jets. It’s more likely that he’ll slowly siphon playing time away from Josh Reynolds over the rest of the season. He's got the skills to make a splash in limited opportunities, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening against New York. The strength of the Jets’ defense is their perimeter corners, Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. The Jets have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to WRs lined up on the perimeter per Sports Info Solutions. Williams is just a dart throw for DFS tournaments this week.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Otton finds himself in the same situation he did last week, playing less than a full-time role with a healthy Cam Brate taking a share of his workload. Otton has scored double-digit PPR points in 4 of the 5 games that Brate has missed, but he’s come up short of 7 PPR points in every game Brate has been active for. The Bengals have allowed the 14th-most TE points per game, but Otton likely needs a TD to break the Brate trend. Cincy has allowed just three tight end scores for the year.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 15: @Was.): Bellinger suffered a rib injury last week that limited him for much of the game. He finished last week with just 3 catches for 19 yards and has continued to be limited by the injury in practice this week. I’d expect Bellinger to play -rib injuries are usually just a pain tolerance issue unless they’re broken – but he faces a Washington defense that has allowed the 2nd-fewest TE points per game. Bellinger faced this Washington team just two weeks ago, and put up 5-24 on 5 targets, but that was one of the most successful TE receiving days of the year against the Commanders. Only one other tight end all year caught 5+ passes against Washington, and only 3 tight ends have reached 30 receiving yards against them. It would be a successful day if Bellinger matches the 7.4 PPR points he tallied against Washington the last time around.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 15: @Car.): The same things I wrote about Pickett last week remain true after he exited week 14’s contest with a concussion. Pickett is far from a lock to clear the protocol and start this week, but even if he does, he’s topped 15 fantasy points just once all season and hasn’t accounted for more than 1 TD in any of his last 8 full games played. Pickett has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 4 of his past 5 full games as the Steelers have leaned into their run game. Pickett isn’t anything more than a low-end QB2 option if you’re desperate.
RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 15: @Den.): Ingram has been the clear RB2 since Arizona cut Eno Benjamin, but James Conner has been a true workhorse back. Conner has played 95% of the offensive snaps or more in 3 of the last 4 games, and Ingram has totaled just 9 touches over the past 5 games. You’d think the Cardinals would eventually ease Conner’s workload with their playoff fate already decided, but until we see that shift you can’t consider Ingram for lineups.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 15: @Car.): Warren has just 8 total touches in the last two weeks since he returned from his hamstring injury, and this doesn’t look like a great week for him to get back on track. The Panthers have been a different defense since being embarrassed by Joe Mixon for 5 TDs back in week 9. They haven’t allowed a single running back score in their last 4 games, and only Latavius Murray has reached even 8 PPR points against them in that span. Warren has been playing a distant second fiddle to a resurgent Najee Harris, which means there just isn’t much upside here this week unless Najee gets hurt.
RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. Pit.): Blackshear looked good on limited touches last weekend, but he handled just 5 of the team’s 44 total running back touches. That’s too limited a role to expect a worthwhile fantasy day against the Steelers, who allow the 17th-most RB points per game.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 15: vs. KC): Pierce got back on track in the last two weeks with 12+ PPR points in each week, but if you missed the news, he’s suffered an ankle sprain that will almost certainly keep him out this week, and possibly in weeks 16 & 17 as well. The Texans have nothing to play for the rest of this season, so I’d expect them to err on the side of caution with Pierce. Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t return until the finale, if even then.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 15: vs. Bal.): Bell’s playing time rebounded back to normal levels after a bizarre game in week 13 where Demetric Felton served as the team’s primary slot receiver, but Bell is still firmly behind Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku in the target pecking order. He may have a spike game in scenarios where the Browns have to throw a lot, but I don’t expect this game to be that with Lamar Jackson sidelined. This could be a slugfest kind of game, which means you likely don’t want to start the 4th-option in either team’s passing game.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 15: @LV): Thornton could have some upside this week if the Patriots’ injured receivers aren’t able to suit up. Jakobi Meyers was credited with a limited practice Wednesday despite being in street clothes during the portion open to the media, and DeVante Parker seems like a long shot to play after suffering a concussion of his own. If both sit, it’ll be Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Thornton serving as New England’s top 3 receivers. Thornton was on the field for a season-high 88% of the snaps on Monday night, but that led to just 4-28 on 5 targets. The Raiders have given up production to unheralded receivers in recent weeks. In their past 4 games, all the following wideouts topped 50 scrimmage yards against them: Kendall Hinton, Marquise Goodwin, Josh Palmer, Ben Skowronek, and Tutu Atwell. If Meyers and Parker both miss this game, Thornton should be viewed as a desperation WR4 for deep leagues. If either of them plays, Thornton should be left sidelined.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 15: @Hou.): Moore’s route participation has decreased in 3 straight weeks, and he’s totaled just 2.9 PPR points in the last two weeks. He could see a little extra run late in a blowout win this week against the hapless Texans, but you can’t rely on that for fantasy lineups.
WR Danny Gray, SF (Wk. 15: @Sea.): Gray is worth mentioning with Deebo Samuel out for the next few weeks, but he isn’t worth adding. The 49ers have only had 5 games all season where 3 different players saw 6 targets or more. They were having a hard time giving enough weekly looks to CMC, Deebo, Kittle and Aiyuk to keep them all fantasy relevant every week. Losing Deebo means they’ll narrow the target tree, not give his targets to a backup like Gray. There’s no guarantee Gray even moves ahead of Ray-Ray McCloud on the depth chart. Let someone else fall into this trap.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 15: @Den.): McBride posted his best game of the season on Monday night against New England, but he totaled just 3 catches for 28 yards on 6 targets. Denver has allowed more than 80 tight end receiving yards in each of the last two weeks, but they faced Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews in those games. With DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown both healthy, McBride is just a low end TE2, even with a full-time role.
TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 15: @Min.): We saw Woods post a huge breakout game on Monday Night Football back in week 12, posting 8-98 on 9 targets against the Steelers. I cautioned against overreacting to that performance since Kylen Granson missed that game with an illness and wanted to wait and see what his usage looked like with Granson back on the field. Woods played just 21% of the offensive snaps in week 13. You could make the argument that Woods’ playing time was limited in week 13 due to an injury he suffered in the breakout game, but nearly all of his playing time and production came with Indy down by 3 scores in the 4th-quarter, a time when you wouldn’t be putting someone into a game at less than 100%. It signals to me that Woods was close to full strength, and he just wasn’t utilized much. He has some DFS appeal this week against the Vikings, who allow the 12th-most TE points per game, but the floor is very low here.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 15: @Cle.): In 3 games since the return of Mark Andrews from injury, Likely has totaled just 5 catches for 31 yards on 7 targets. He’s not a fantasy factor with Mark Andrews healthy.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 15: @Jax.): The pair of rookie tight ends combined to play just 18 snaps last weekend in a surprisingly tight game with Houston. Neither garnered a single target. Both are purely TD dart throws in DFS lineups.
Rookies who may as well be on Bye in Week 15: RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, RB Zamir White, LV, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, TE Cole Turner, WAS, TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU, TE Charlie Kolar, BAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RBs Pierre Strong Jr. & Kevin Harris, NE (Wk. 15: @LV): The Patriots could be without both Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris in week 15, and that could open the door for both of their rookie backs to have a role against a bad Raiders’ defense. We should get a better indication as the week goes on how likely Stevenson and Damien Harris are to play Sunday, but if both are out, I’d prioritize Strong over Kevin Harris. Strong is the better receiver of the duo, catching more than 60 passes in his college career, and the Patriots have peppered their backs with targets this season. Rhamondre has earned a 20.5% target share over the last 11 games, and Strong seems likely to step into that same role. Strong also handled the only rushing attempt from inside the 5-yard line last week after Stevenson left the game, and he cashed it in for a score. Both Strong and Harris have value as cheap DFS options, but Strong is the one with the higher ceiling. He’s a legitimate RB2 option if both Stevenson and Damien Harris sit.
RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 15: @Sea.): The 49ers will continue to use a run-heavy approach with Brock Purdy at QB, and Mason has a good shot at a spike week against the Seahawks on Thursday night. Deebo Samuel’s injury means the dynamic receiver won’t be stealing rushing touches from Christian McCaffrey and Mason for at least a couple weeks, and Mason has really impressed in the RB2 role over the last two games, totaling 107 yards on 19 carries. Seattle has been hemorrhaging rushing production in recent weeks, allowing 3 of their last 4 opponents to total more than 160 running back rushing yards. The lack of receiving production means Mason isn’t a great option in full PPR formats, but he’s got upside as a RB3 in deep non-PPR and half-PPR leagues. I like his chances to get into the end zone in this one.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 15: @Min.): Pierce has earned 8+ targets three times in his rookie season, and two of those happened in the last 3 games. The Colts have played more 3-WR sets since Jeff Saturday took over as interim coach, and that means Pierce has been on the field more. Pierce has notched a route participation rate of 75% or higher in each of the last 3 games, and he appears to be re-establishing the rapport he enjoyed with Matt Ryan for a stretch earlier in the season. This week the Colts face a Minnesota defense that has allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game and ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA. The Colts’ passing game hasn’t been prolific enough to count on a secondary option like Pierce in your playoff games this week (Matt Ryan hasn’t thrown for more than 235 yards in the 4 games since being reinserted as the starter), but he could be a steal in DFS tournaments at just $3,900 on DraftKings. Pierce has earned more targets than Michael Pittman Jr. in two of the last 3 games and saw 48% of the team air yards come his way in each of those two contests. The Vikings have allowed the 3rd-most completed air yards for the season.
WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 15: vs. Atl.): Shaheed has slowly but surely taken over the Saints’ WR3 role over the past month. He saw season-highs in route participation, snaps, targets, and receiving yards ahead of the bye in week 13, and now he gets to face off with an Atlanta defense that allows the 6th-most WR points per game and ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. Shaheed’s price tag for DFS contests hasn’t caught up with his expanded role. He costs just $200 more than the minimum on DraftKings this week, and he’s a big play waiting to happen. Shaheed has gained 30+ yards on 5 of his 15 touches for the season. He may even be worth a start in season-long league playoffs that award bonus points for return yards. He’s reached 40 or more return yards in 6 of the 8 games he’s played.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend and advance to your semi-finals. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
Finally! They’re done!
We are heading into week 15 and FINALLY we are done with bye weeks! 16 games a week for the rest of the season! That means we’ll have more chance for points in our pools.
Of course…we do have to pick them correctly.
So let’s get to it!
Week 15 – HERE WE GO!!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – WASHINGTON over New York Giants – Remember when the Giants were 6-1? Yeah Pepperidge Farms doesn’t even remember at this point.
15 – Philadelphia over CHICAGO – I really wanted to break my “don’t put a road team on the top line” rule for this one …
14 – Kansas City over HOUSTON – …aaaaaand this one!
13 – Dallas over JACKSONVILLE – I feel that the Jags used all of their “dominant over a good team” points in Nashville last week.
12 – MINNESOTA over Indianapolis – I see this as the Vikings making their long-awaited statement that their record isn’t a lie and they are a legit contender.
11 – GREEN BAY over Los Angeles Rams – It’s just funny that this would be a bold prediction, but, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that AARON RODGERS WILL GET HIS FIRST 300 YARD GAME OF THE SEASON THIS WEEK.
10 – NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta – I’d be more confident in Desmond Ridder’s debut if he had the safety valve of Kyle Pitts on the field with him.
9 – SEATTLE over San Francisco – It’s unfortunate for San Francisco that they have a short week to figure out filling the Deebo Samuael gap.
8 – Cincinnati over TAMPA BAY – Getting blown out by Mr. Irrelevant is not the best way to prepare for a recent first overall pick.
7 – BUFFALO over Miami – Well, its not the freakish blizzard game we were hoping for a couple weeks ago, but still should be fun non-South Florida like conditions in Orchard Park.
6 – CAROLINA over Pittsburgh – I’m on board with Carolina being the “someone has to represent the NFC South” representative in the playoffs.
5 – DENVER over Arizona – A home game against a backup quarterback, finally Bronco’s Country can indeed ride.
4 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Tennessee – If you get smoked at home by the Jaguars, you don’t get to win in LA.
3 – New England over LAS VEGAS – FIRE…JOSH…MCDANIELS
2 – CLEVELAND over Baltimore – The Browns gave Deshaun Watson $230 million … guaranteed … just want to throw that out there.
1 – Detroit over NEW YORK JETS – So obviously back in August we all had this game circled as what could be an incredibly entertaining late-season game…right?
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- Written by David Biggs
Take these rankings as a guide to help you make the big decisions looking forward to next week. Currently, my rankings are sitting at #6 overall for the season at FantasyPros! See the Expert Accuracy rankings at FantasyPros.com. With injuries just continuing to pile up, there are a ton of decisions that will require the help of this week's injury and practice reports to make. Tune in to local beat reporters over national broadcasters when it comes to situations that are being held close to the chest by coaches and other team staff.
Take a look at our rankings for the week, meant to be used as a guide for your lineups, pickups, and trades moving into Week 15 of the fantasy season. Feel free to reach out on Twitter or in the comments below with any specific questions!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
33.70 Fantasy Points
This week’s best performance by a WR/RB/TE came from a very unexpected place. Evan Engram had a monster game, putting up 33.70 points in the best game of his career by a long shot. He caught 11 passes on 15 targets for 162 yards and found the end zone twice. That’s a career-high for targets, yardage, touchdowns, and tied his high in receptions. He increased his season total in yardage by 42%. He scored more than 31% of his fantasy points this season this week. It took him the first 6 weeks of the season to get to 33.7 points. He has jumped all the way up to TE4 for the year – he was the TE15 going into the week. He’s increased his weekly average by 2.2 points. He scored more than the TE1 and TE2 combined last week. He scored more than the TE2 and TE3 combined this week.
4 Touchdown Passes
Russell Wilson threw 4 touchdown passes on Sunday, though one of them was to the wrong team. It took Russ 4 games to throw his 4 first TDs of the season. Over his next 7 games, he only threw 4 more. Then on Sunday, he managed to throw another 4 – with three of them going to his own team! It’s only the second time all season that he’s thrown for more than one touchdown. He improved from QB22 to QB19 – almost worth starting in a superflex league. He’s averaging more than a point per game less than Marcus Mariota. Russ finally got to cook in Kansas City, but he provided his opponents a little too much of their own home cookin’ to be able to try and avoid his 5th L in a row.
223 Receiving Yards
Marking a new career high, Justin Jefferson caught 11 passes for 223 yards. He did not make it to the end zone but still was the WR2 on the week with 27.8 points. He’s less than 2 points behind the unexpected 3 TD performance of Jerry Jeudy. But back to Jefferson – it’s the 6th time he’s had 139 or more receiving yards. He’s at an even 1,500 yards for the season, and with 4 games left, he has a real shot at passing 2,000 yards receiving, which would be a first for any NFL receiver. I suppose it helps when your QB throws the ball 41 times in a game – the 5th time Kirk Cousins has done that this year. Amazingly, Cousins is only 4th for attempts this season – Tom Brady leads the way with 89 more attempts than Kirk!
99 Rushing Yards
So close to that mostly meaningless mark of 100 yards – unless you’re in a league with bonuses. In which case, I offer my condolences to those with Josh Jacobs on their team, but not really. Honorable mention goes to those with Joe Mixon on their team, 96 yards. Jacobs finds himself as the RB1 on the season, a spot he’s held the last couple of weeks. He has 1,402 rushing yards, which is 203 more than the second-place RB, Derrick Henry. He has 1,748 yards from scrimmage, which is 224 more than the aforementioned Justin Jefferson. Jacobs is averaging just over 134 yards from scrimmage per game. He has 11 touchdowns on the season, but if he had zero, his yardage and receptions would make him the RB7.
3 D/ST Teams with Negative Points
The Tennessee Titans became the 6th team this season to post the absolute failure of a fantasy stat line. -4 points from your D/ST. That means that they gave up 35+ points to the opposing team, while not forcing a single turnover or sack or really blocking anything or doing a single thing of note all game long. Joining them in their failure are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings. All three teams gave up at least 34 points and over 400 yards of offense. It’s the third time this year that the Titans have finished with negative points. I don’t understand what the people who roster this team were thinking, going against the upsurging Jaguars – 45% of leagues in Fleaflicker have the Titans rostered. And while, yes, I’m responsible for the Titans being on a roster in two of those leagues, I must defend myself by pointing out that in two other leagues, I have the Buccaneers.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the final week in the regular season for most fantasy leagues. All your hard work this season may boil down to one game. Maybe you’re still fighting for a playoff spot, or if you’re lucky, fighting for a playoff bye. If you still need a win this week, the NFL schedulers haven’t made it easy on you. There are 6 NFL teams on a bye in week 14, so you may have to get by without a weekly starter like Justin Fields, Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Terry McLaurin, or Alvin Kamara to get that win. You may be digging deeper than you want to for replacements, and there may be some less heralded rookies who can help…or maybe not.
It's a tough week for the rookies too with those byes. Several rookies who have been viable weekly options are on byes this week – guys like Chris Olave, Christian Watson and Brian Robinson Jr – and a couple others (Treylon Burks & Kenneth Walker III) are in danger of missing the week with injury. Dameon Pierce’s struggles continued to a degree last week, and George Pickens had his worst game of the season, but it’s not all ugly for the rookies. Garrett Wilson, Zonovan Knight, Isiah Pacheco and Cade Otton continued their breakouts, and there could be more good things to come for those players going forward. I’m here once again to take a look at every relevant rookie for week 14, and help you navigate what to do with them in your lineups to put you in the best position to come away with another W.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s get into week 14…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Walker is listed as questionable for this week. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday, but if he’s able to play he should be in your lineup. The Panthers aren’t a defense to be afraid of, allowing the 9th-most RB points per game and ranking 22nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. It took an injury to prevent Walker from tallying his 8th straight game with 12+ PPR points, and I expect him to get back on track this weekend if he’s able to suit up. He’s a safe RB2 if healthy.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): The QB change in New York has been just what the doctor ordered to get Wilson’s season going again. In two games with Mike White under center, Wilson has put up at least a 27% target share, 35% air yardage share, and 24 PPR points in each game. Wilson managed to put up 8 catches for 92 yards on 9 targets in the first meeting with the Bills with Zach Wilson at QB back in week 9, and Mike White should continue to look his way a lot to try and keep pace with Buffalo on Sunday. Buffalo ranks an impressive 7th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 11th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers. They’ve allowed 110+ yards to the opposing WR1 in 3 of their last 4 games (to Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper, and Amon-Ra St. Brown). Wilson is a safe WR2 with a top-5 ceiling even in what looks like a tougher matchup.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lead Toward Starting:
RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Bam Knight has come seemingly out of nowhere to post back-to-back top-24 finishes (one of them a top-12 finish) in his first two games of NFL action. Head coach Robert Saleh has said that Knight will remain in the lead back role this week, even if Michael Carter is able to return from injury. The matchup isn’t an easy one – the Bills rank 3rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 10th-fewest RB points per game – but the Jets were able to run for over 120 yards in the first meeting with Buffalo, and the Bills’ defense isn’t at full strength. Von Miller is officially out for the season, and DT Jordan Phillips and LB Matt Milano are both not practicing as of Wednesday. Knight is close to a lock for 15+ touches, and he should push for a RB2 finish again with so many top backs off for the week on byes.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 14: @Den.): The numbers for Pacheco have been strong over the past month. He’s topped 80 scrimmage yards in 4 straight games and scored a TD in each of the last two. There are still some concerns about his underlying usage, but the bottom line is that he’s the clear lead back for one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and that makes him an RB2 option just about every week. Most of the usage concerns for Pacheco stem from a lack of passing game usage and goal-line touches. It seemed that Pacheco had turned a corner in week 12 when he got a dozen red zone carries, but all of that happened with a double-digit lead. Last weekend, with a worse game script, Pacheco’s 8-yard TD in the 3rd quarter was his only touch in the red zone. Game script should be positive again this week with the Chiefs 9.5-point favorites. Denver has limited RBs to the 9th-fewest fantasy points per game, but they’re just 17th in run defense DVOA. They’re far from impenetrable. 3 backs they’ve faced in the last 5 weeks have topped 100 yards on the ground. I wouldn’t call Pacheco a ‘must-start’ if you’ve got solid backs ahead of him, but he’s a strong RB2 option this week.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Cook rebounded from a poor fantasy day on Thanksgiving in a big way last week. He was arguably the focal point of the offense against the Patriots in week 13, tallying more rushing attempts than Devin Singletary for the first time all year, and was 3rd on the team with 6 targets, just 3 fewer than Stefon Diggs. He finished the week as the PPR RB13 without scoring a TD. Cook has been more efficient than Singletary when given opportunities, and the Bills would be wise to continue to give him the ball. Buffalo has been inconsistent in the last few weeks when it comes to their run/pass splits, alternating between being a run-heavy and pass-heavy team in subsequent games. They went pass-heavy against the Vikings and Lions and run-heavy against the Browns and Patriots. Cook was a major beneficiary in the games where they went run-heavy. For what it’s worth, the Jets are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, though they’re a solid defense overall. New York ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA, and their outside corners DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner have been phenomenal this year. They rank 11th in run defense DVOA and have allowed a double-digit fantasy day (half-PPR) to 4 backs in their last 3 games. The Bills’ running backs didn’t have great success against the Jets the first time around, but I think Buffalo has found something in their ground game in recent weeks and will have success this time. Cook’s role is very much in flux this week, but I think the increased usage continues, and he finishes as a top-24 back this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Pickens was a huge disappointment last weekend, putting up just 1 catch for 2 yards on 2 targets, and making a scene on the sideline out of frustration with his usage (or lack thereof). The rookie downplayed the significance of the blowup in interviews after the game, but I think he gets the squeaky wheel treatment this week. The Ravens have struggled to limit wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most points per game to the position, and with so many players on byes this week, I think Pickens gets fed enough to post a useful week. Be warned, I don’t think he’s going to put up a monster game here, but 60-70 yards feels like a strong possibility. That ceiling goes up if Diontae Johnson misses this game. Johnson isn’t practicing as of Thursday.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 14: vs. KC): Last Sunday was a banner day for Dulcich with the top two pass catching options banged up for the Broncos. Jerry Jeudy returned from a multi-week ankle injury and played a limited role (41% route participation rate), and Courtland Sutton suffered a hamstring injury and left the game early, and Dulcich made the most of his expanded opportunity. The rookie tallied 6 catches for 85 yards on 8 targets, good enough for a PPR TE2 finish for the week. It was the 4th time Dulcich has finished as a top-12 TE in the 7 games he’s played this year, and he’s got a good chance to make it 5 of 8 this week even if Sutton is able to play. If Sutton sits, the ceiling gets even higher for Dulcich. He was used more like a wide receiver last Sunday, spending 54.5% of his snaps lined up in the slot, and he has the 3rd-highest air yardage total of any tight end since his debut. Dulcich is a top-10 option at tight end this week against a KC defense that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): With only 26 teams in action this week, I can’t just flat out say that you know to sit Kenny Pickett if you’re in a 2-QB league. You might not have any other choice in those formats. Just know that he belongs toward the bottom of the list of those 26 starting QBs in terms of fantasy outlook for this week. The matchup seems favorable on paper, with the Ravens allowing the 12th-most QB points per game, but Pickett hasn’t shown an ability to cash in on good matchups this season. The rookie has just one top-15 finish all season and hasn’t accounted for more than 1 TD in any of his last 8 starts. The Steelers’ offense as a whole has been better in recent weeks, but that’s been due to a renewed commitment to running the football and not putting too much on Pickett’s shoulders. The rookie has gone 4 straight games without a turnover, but he’s only thrown for 200 yards in one of those games. If you’re looking for 12-15 points from your QB2, Pickett will probably get you that. If you’re looking for more, you should look somewhere else.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 14: @SF): Leonard Fournette returned to action on Monday night, and White returned to a full-on timeshare role with Lenny. Fournette played 15 more snaps than White against the Saints, but only out-touched him by one (16-to-15). 15 touches isn’t a bad day for a running back, and White did finish the week as the PPR RB10 on the strength of a late TD, but I don’t feel good about his chances of repeating the strong performance in this one. White has largely been inefficient this season, ranking just 41st in yards per touch out of 52 qualified running backs. He also faces a San Francisco defense this week that has allowed the fewest RB points per game and ranks 2nd in run defense DVOA. The 49ers haven’t allowed 50+ rushing yards to a back since week 6. They haven’t allowed 40+ receiving yards to a back since week 5, and they’ve allowed only one back to find the end zone in their last 5 games. If White is only going to get half of the workload, his only path to relevance this week will be finding the end zone or piling up a bunch of receptions. I don’t like his chances to score a TD. There could be a little bit more hope on the receiving front – the 49ers have allowed 7 receptions each to Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler this season, and 6 to Alvin Kamara – but even a 5 or 6 catch game might only get White into low-end RB2 range. You might not have better options this week but be warned this is probably a floor game for the rookie.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 14: @Dal.): Pierce was a bit more effective on the ground last weekend than he’d been in the two games prior, rushing for 73 yards on 18 carries, and ranking in the top-24 PPR finishers for the week. That performance came against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL. Things get much tougher this week. The Cowboys rank 8th in run defense DVOA and have allowed just the 5th-fewest RB points per game. They’re also an absurd 17-point favorite. The Texans may abandon the run early in this one, and Pierce has been ceding garbage time work to Dare Ogunbowale in the last couple weeks. There is very real risk here that Pierce puts up another 5-point dud. He’s still almost certain to see double-digit touches, so he’s an RB3 at worst, but be aware of the downside if you’re considering him.
RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 14: vs. TB): It was Mason who emerged as the 49ers new #2 running back with Elijah Mitchell done for the year, which makes him a viable fantasy option in the 49ers run-heavy attack. They’ll likely try to be even more run-heavy with Brock Purdy now playing QB, but McCaffrey dominated the high-value touches last weekend, and likely will going forward. Mason ran a route on just 8% of the team’s passing dropbacks and saw 0% of the short down & distance snaps. If CMC is going to get all the passing work, and all the short yardage/goal line work, it’ll be an uphill fight for Mason to put up fantasy production. He was exceptional last week, putting up 51 yards on 8 carries, but that was good enough to finish as just the RB38 in non-PPR scoring. The Bucs allow the 3rd-fewest RB points per game, so this is an especially bad week to plug in Mason and hope for success on limited opportunities.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk 14: vs. LV): The Raiders allow the 6th-most RB points per game, so any RB who has a meaningful role against them should be in consideration for fantasy lineups, but I don’t have the stomach to rely on Williams this week, especially if you need a win. The Rams’ backfield usage has been an enigma all season. They seemingly have a different lead back each week, often due to injuries, but in some cases with less rhyme or reason. Kyren had his turn as lead back in week 12, handling 14 touches against the Chiefs, but he was down to just 3 touches last Sunday as Cam Akers was re-inserted into the lead role. If you’re confident in a bounce-back in usage for Williams this week, he’s got upside as a RB3 in a good matchup, but I’m not confident in that bounce-back.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Burks suffered what looked like a nasty concussion on his TD catch last Sunday. He draws a favorable matchup this week with the Jaguars, who allow the 9th-most WR points per game and rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, but it remains very questionable whether he’ll clear the concussion protocol in time to play or not. If he’s able to get cleared, he’ll do so after sitting for most of the week of practice (he’s not practicing as of Thursday), and that could result in him being less involved in the game plan. Burks has big play upside if he’s active and you want to take a swing here, but I’d exercise caution before firing him up.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 14: @SF): Otton was the PPR TE1 last week, and I would probably sit him this week if you have another reasonable option. Otton got an unexpected boost on Monday night when Cam Brate was a surprise inactive due to an illness. It resulted in Otton playing 82% of the team’s offensive snaps, and even with all that playing time, he didn’t make much of an impact until two frantic scoring drives at the end of the game for a come-from-behind win. Nearly 70% of Otton’s fantasy points were tallied in those last two drives, and the line that made him THE TE1 for the week was just 6-28-1. It was a terrible week for top TE performances. Brate is practicing in full this week, and Otton hasn’t scored even 7 PPR points in any game where Brate has been active. He’s scored 10+ in 4 of the 5 games that Brate has missed. I would assume Brate returns this week, and the 49ers have allowed the 4th-fewest TE fantasy points per game. Only Tyler Higbee and Travis Kelce have tallied 30+ receiving yards against them from the tight end position. Steer clear of Otton this week.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. NE): The fact that I’m listing McBride as a ‘borderline’ option at all speaks to just how dire the TE landscape is right now. McBride has been in a full-time role since Zach Ertz got hurt. He’s had a 70% route participation rate or higher in 3 straight games, but he’s totaled just 22 yards on 8 targets in those 3 games. The Patriots have allowed the 10th-most TE points per game but starting McBride would be just a shot in the dark that he gets on track.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): The Steelers have shown a renewed commitment to running the ball, but it’s meant a resurgence for Najee Harris, who has posted his 3 highest rushing totals of the season over the last 4 weeks. Warren has been battling a hamstring injury that kept him out for most of weeks 11 & 12, and he came back to just 3 touches on 13 snaps last Sunday. He should at least move back ahead of Benny Snell this week and play a bit more than he did last weekend, but the Ravens have given up just the 6th-fewest running back points per game. Warren won’t have a big enough role behind Najee to be a good option in that matchup.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 14: @Den.): After back-to-back 6-target games for Moore, the bottom fell out last week for the rookie. JuJu Smith-Schuster was back to his usual role after being eased back from his concussion a few weeks ago, but that wasn’t the biggest issue for Moore. Skyy played just about the same snap share as he had in the two prior weeks, but he didn’t earn a single target after earning one on nearly 40% of his routes run over those two prior weeks. Moore’s limited playing team means there will be weeks like this where just doesn’t get involved. The Chiefs have too many weapons for everyone to produce every week. I wouldn’t roll the dice on him getting back on track this week against a Denver defense that allows the fewest WR points per game.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 14: @Ari.): Thornton has been under a 40% snap share in each of the past 3 weeks and has just 3 catches for 36 yards in those games combined. Four other Patriot wide receivers had a higher route participation rate than Thornton against the Bills. There’s always the threat that Tyquan takes the top off the defense, but I’d rather not start him and have to pray that he does.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 14: @Cin.): I’ve talked up Bell as having upside when Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, but Watson’s debut put that notion to bed quickly. Bell had been seeing his role grow in the weeks leading up Deshaun’s return, but inexplicably the Browns chose to deploy Demetric Felton as their primary slot receiver last Sunday. Bell played just 3 snaps while Felton played 38. Felton wasn’t targeted even once, but he was on the field a ton. It could just be a product of facing a bad Texans team, or just a one game blip, but either way you can’t plug Bell into lineups anywhere for this week.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 14: @Pit.): The tight end pool is a dumpster fire outside of the top few options, but don’t be fooled into thinking Likely is in play after his 4-catch game last week. 3-4 weekly targets is pretty the most you can reasonably hope for while Mark Andrews is healthy. That’s not enough to take a chance on Likely against a middling Steelers’ defense.
TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): There may be some DFS upside here with the Cowboys an absurd 17-point favorite against the Texans. All the Cowboys’ backups could get some run in this game, and that includes the pair of backup tight ends. Both players have limited ceilings, so I’d limit exposure to Showdown contests. Hendershot is the much cheaper option ($400 on DraftKings compared to $1,800 for Ferguson), but Ferguson is the one who is on the field more and has seen more opportunities in recent weeks. Ferguson has seen 7 targets come his way in the last 3 games, while Hendershot has just 1 catch and one rushing attempt in the last 4. Both guys are just TD dart throws here anyway, but if this really does turn into the rout that it’s supposed to, it could be Hendershot who benefits since Ferguson may be viewed as more important to the offense (he’s played more than 45% of the offensive snaps in 4 of the last 5 games).
Rookies on Bye: RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Drake London, ATL, WRs Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed, NO, WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB, WR Jahan Dotson, WAS, WR Alec Pierce, IND, TE Jelani Woods, IND, TE Cole Turner, WAS
Rookies Who May as Well Be on a Bye: RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF, RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Zamir White, LV, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 14: vs. TB): The 49ers season appeared to take a catastrophic turn last week when Jimmy Garoppolo was carted off after being tackled awkwardly by a Miami defender. Testing this week has confirmed that Garoppolo is done for at least the regular season, but if Purdy’s play in relief of Jimmy G last week is any indication, the 49ers’ championship hopes might not be completely dead yet. The rookie commanded the huddle and played surprisingly well in his debut. The 49ers were already a run-first offense, and they’ll certainly remain that way with Purdy under center, but when he needed to throw, Purdy was decisive and put the ball on-target. I’m sure there will be bumps along the way as defenses throw different wrinkles at him, and the Bucs are a tougher matchup this week (8th in pass defense DVOA), but Purdy looks up to the task of guiding the 49ers down the stretch. With the weapons at his disposal, and Kyle Shanahan calling the plays, I’d view Purdy as a weekly mid-range QB2 who could post some spike weeks when things break his way. He shouldn’t be on the waiver wire in 2-QB leagues.
QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 14: Bye): Ridder is on a bye this week, but the time to pick him up in redraft superflex leagues is now. He’s likely already rostered in dynasty leagues, but Arthur Smith has hinted that a QB change may be coming after the bye week with the Falcons essentially out of playoff contention. The Atlanta offense will cap his passing upside, but Ridder has a bit of Konami code rushing upside to tap into. If you were starting Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, or Lamar Jackson in a superflex league, Ridder could be a valuable add for the stretch run. Atlanta’s opponents in week 16 & 17 (Baltimore and Arizona) are both in the bottom 12 defenses at limiting QB fantasy points. Arizona is in the bottom 5.
UPDATE: The Falcons have officially named Ridder as their starting QB for week 15
WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Firing up Williams this week in season-long leagues is probably off the table for you after seeing the rookie play just 8 snaps and earn 1 target in his debut last week. The team offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was quoted as saying he hopes Williams will have a bigger role moving forward but noted that “I don’t know what that means necessarily for the rep count.” With that kind of tepid endorsement, it’s hard to have much confidence in a breakout game this week for Williams, but the opportunity could be there. The Vikings rank 24th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game. Jameson is also a big play waiting to happen – he can burn defenses on the deep ball, or with yards after the catch – and the Vikings have struggled to defend both this year. Minnesota has allowed the 5th-most air yards on completions this year, and the 2nd-most yards after catch. It’s mostly just an upside swing if you plug Williams into your DFS lineups this week, but there’s room for a big ceiling if he gets the opportunities.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Okonkwo has now posted a 30+ yard catch in 4 of his last 5 games, and 5 targets in each of the last two, and he could see an expanded receiving role this week if fellow rookie Treylon Burks isn’t able to clear the concussion protocol prior to the game. Okonkwo was in a route on 78% of the team passing dropbacks after Burks left the game and earned a 25% target share. The Jaguars have given up 100+ yards to opposing tight ends in two of their last 3 games, and 80+ in 3 of their last 5. There’s top-5 upside for Okonkwo if Burks is out. He’s more of fringe TE1 streaming option if Burks can suit up.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. Phi.): Bellinger returned from IR last week and immediately stepped back into a full-time role, playing 97% of the offensive snaps and posting an 81% route participation rate. He didn’t put up much production (5-24 on 5 targets), but he was facing off with a Washington defense that allows the 2nd-fewest TE points per game. This week he faces an Eagles’ defense than allowed 4-68 to Chig Okonkwo last week in their first game without CJ Gardner-Johnson at safety. The Eagles are still allowing just the 8th-fewest TE points per game for the year, but they’ve been showing cracks defensively in the middle of the field. Bellinger isn’t more than a fringe streaming option this week for 12-team leagues or deeper, but there’s solid DFS potential here as well with just a $3,300 price tag on DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.