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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your teams have held together well enough through the first 7 weeks. I’m not going to spend the intro this week lamenting all of the injuries our teams are dealing with…instead I’m going to give thanks that we’re getting a random mid-season reprieve from bye weeks. All 32 teams will be in action this week, which will give everyone a lot of lineup flexibility, but it also means a lot of our rookies are going to get pushed to the wrong side of the borderline this week, especially at running back.

I was excited to lead this week’s column talking about the huge rookie QB showdown looming in Washington, but it looks like a Jayden Daniels rib injury is going to derail those plans. There’s still a lot to be excited about – Ricky Pearsall and Jalen McMillan moving into more prominent roles in their offenses, Brian Thomas Jr. continuing to ascend to auto-start status, and some unheralded running backs who could post surprising stat lines in garbage time this week. Nearly 40 percent of this week’s matchups have point spreads of 7 or more points, and there are going to be some garbage time producers if those games go according to the script.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 8…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): I list Daniels here with the huge obvious caveat that it only applies if he’s able to play. The Bears have been stingy to opposing QBs, allowing the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game this year, but some of that has been due to the QBs they’ve played. Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, and the Panthers’ QBs have all been wildly inefficient this year. Matthew Stafford has struggled against a bunch of teams without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The other QBs the Bears have faced – CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence – didn’t put up huge games, but both were within 2 points of top-12 finishes for the week when facing the Bears. Daniels has been uber-efficient this year, ranking 1^st in the league in completion % and 5^th in passer rating, and he’s averaged 53 rushing yards per game. The matchup isn’t a good one, but I’d bet on him finding his way to a top-12 finish again if he’s able to get cleared to play, but that’s a big if.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): Nabers didn’t blow the doors off in his return from a concussion on Sunday, but he did go right back to putting up a 30%+ target share and a whopping 56% air yardage share against the Eagles. His final stat line was uninspiring (4-41 on 8 targets), but his usage and skill is elite. He’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. this week whenever he’s on the perimeter, which sounds daunting, but the last 3 WR1s the Steelers have faced (Michael Pittman Jr., CeeDee Lamb, and Garrett Wilson) all posted at least 5-60 against Pittsburgh. Nabers’ floor might be a touch lower than that 5-60 line given what we saw last week, but you know his ceiling is significantly higher. He should be in starting lineups again.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Thomas put on a show for the London fans in week 7, putting up 5-89-1 on 5 targets, and threw in a 2-point conversion for good measure. He’s now finished as a top-10 PPR receiver in 3 of the last 4 weeks, and as a result he’s graduated to the auto-start section of the column. The usage continues to be very good for Thomas and he continues to make plays when given the chance. He’ll face a tough individual matchup against Jaire Alexander, but I trust in Thomas to provide a solid WR2 type of performance, and Thomas lines up in the slot enough that he should be able to get away from Jaire for at least some of his routes. The Packers allow the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, but have had trouble with some vertical receivers this year like AJ Brown (5-119-1), Alec Pierce (5-56-1), and Jordan Addison (3-72-1).

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 8: vs. KC): One of the easiest starting decisions you’ll have in any league is the choice to plug in Bowers as your starting tight end. Bowers has emerged as the Raiders’ true #1 receiver, putting up 30% or higher target shares in each of his last 3 games without Davante Adams around. Bowers finished each of those 3 weeks (and 5 of 7 weeks of the season) as a top-5 PPR TE, and this week he gets to face a KC defense that allows the most TE points per game. The Chiefs have allowed 3 tight ends to reach 90+ yards against them this year, and I think Bowers has a great chance to be the 4^th.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Nix has some sneaky top-10 potential this week against the miserable Panthers. The Panthers rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game, including at least 17 points to the opposing QB in 5 of their 7 games. They also just allowed the Commanders’ QBs to rush for over 80 yards last week, so Nix’s rushing floor (he’s averaging just over 6 points per game of rushing production) should be there again this week. We’ve already seen Nix post finishes this year of QB8, QB9, and QB13, and I think he can be in that range again this week. I’d prefer to start him as my QB2, but he could be a serviceable QB1 if you don’t like your starter’s matchup.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 8: @ Was.): Williams has taken his play to another level in the last 3-4 games, and this week gets a plus matchup against a shaky Commanders’ secondary. Caleb over his last 3 games has a completion percentage above 70%, a passer rating of 122.8, and a 7:1 TD-INT ratio. Washington has been better in recent weeks against the pass, allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, but for the season, they still rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA, and all of the passing offenses they limited have struggled throwing the ball this year (Cardinals, Panthers, Browns). I’d treat 200 passing yards and 2 TDs as close to the floor here. Like Bo Nix above, I think Caleb is a rock-solid QB2 and fringe QB1 option this week.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 8: @ Mia.): It’s been an up-and-down season for Marvin Harrison this year with more downs than ups lately, but Harrison’s usage has remained solid. He was in a route on 90% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks on Monday night and earned a 25% target share and 42% air yardage share, but he ended up with just 3-21 on 6 targets. Looking back at the last 3 games, including the one he left early with a concussion, Harrison has just 5 catches in his last 15 targets. If you’ve seen the clip from Monday’s game of Harrison dropping a ball that hit him in the chest, you might assume that Harrison has been the problem, but according to MB Fantasy Life’s utilization tool, just 7 of those 15 targets have been catchable. Kyler Murray’s play has been a problem for Marv. I still think that the usage is going to lead to better performances as Marv and Kyler get on the same page, and I’d lean towards starting Marv this week, but I would understand if you didn’t feel the same as he faces Jalen Ramsey and the Dolphins. With that said, Brian Thomas Jr. (4-47-1), DK Metcalf (4-104-1) and Michael Pittman Jr. (3-63) have all fared just fine against Ramsey and the Dolphins, though Miami does allow the fewest WR points per game.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. NO): McConkey’s final stat line on Monday night was underwhelming (5 catches for 46 yards) but he logged his highest route participation rate of the season (95%) and still finished the week as the PPR WR32. This week he faces a New Orleans defense that allows the 14^th-most WR points per game, and has had some trouble slowing down slot receivers like CeeDee Lamb (4-90-1), Ray-Ray McCloud (6-62), and Chris Godwin (11-125-2). I wouldn’t put McConkey on the same level as Godwin or Lamb, but he’s certainly better than McCloud. McConkey also has fared very well against man coverage this season, earning a 34.2% target share and scoring 0.75 fantasy points per route run against that coverage, per PFF, and the Saints play man-to-man at the 8^th-highest rate in the NFL. It all adds up to Ladd being a solid bet to finish as a WR3 again this week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 8: @ LV): Worthy saw his best usage of the season in week 7, and also saw his worst fantasy output since week 3 after he turned 8 targets into just 3-19. JuJu Smith-Schuster left the game early after aggravating his hamstring injury, and Worthy finished the day with a 32% target share and 56% air yardage share, but the deep passes didn’t connect. The Chiefs did trade for DeAndre Hopkins this week, so it’s only a matter of time before Hopkins is earning a large target share and cutting into Worthy’s workload, but I don’t expect the impact to be big in week 8. I’d expect Hopkins to play something similar to the 35% snap share Amari Cooper played in his Buffalo debut last weekend. The Chiefs will find packages and plays to get him on the field, but there’s no way he’ll have the whole playbook down in just a few days. That means Worthy should continue to play a big role this week, and the Raiders are a much softer defense than the San Francisco secondary that slowed him last Sunday. Vegas ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA, though they’re the only defense that has yet to allow a 40+ yard completion this season. Will Worthy notch the 1^st? He might, but even if he doesn’t, I like his chances of getting into the WR3 ranks this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Maye has been fun to watch in the last two weeks, as his first 2 NFL starts both ended in top-10 fantasy finishes, but I think he’s in for a bit of a rude awakening this weekend. The Jets’ pass defense looked very vulnerable against Russell Wilson and the Steelers last Sunday, but they were missing starting corners DJ Reed and Michael Carter, both of whom are practicing in full as of Thursday and should make their returns. Prior to last week’s contest, the Jets were allowing just 11 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and still have allowed just the 4^th-fewest points per game to QBs after getting shredded by Russ. I expect that Jets’ defense to bounce back in a big way, and would treat Maye as a low-end QB2 this week.

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 8: @ LAC): If Rattler gets to make his 3^rd start this week, I’d probably stay away even in 2-QB formats. His 2^nd game didn’t go nearly as well as the first, as the Broncos limited the rookie to 172 passing yards and forced 2 fumbles before Rattler was pulled for Jake Haener late in a blowout. The Chargers don’t boast a top-5 pass defense like the Broncos do, but they’re a top-10 unit that has allowed just 1 QB to throw for 250+ yards, and just 1 QB to throw for 2 TDs against them. If Rattler is going to have success, he’s likely going to have to find it on the ground, but I doubt he does enough with his legs to find his way to a solid QB2 performance.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Irving’s final stat line last Monday was fine for fantasy lineups (12 touches, 77 scrimmage yards and a TD), but Todd Bowles promised a 3-headed backfield last week and he delivered. Rachaad White led the way in playing time, but RB3 Sean Tucker played nearly 20% of the snaps and saw 7 opportunities. White and Irving’s split seemed similar to what we saw before White’s injury absence in week 6 – an even split of rushing work with White playing much more on passing downs – but Tucker siphoned off a portion of the workload from each, and I don’t see him disappearing this week. We saw Bucky put up 56 scrimmage yards on 11 touches in the first meeting with Atlanta, and I think we’ll see a similar workload here. For the year, Atlanta has allowed just the 5^th-fewest RB points per game. With all 32 teams in action this week, I’d treat Bucky as a mid-range RB3 option this week.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): Devin Singletary returned to the lineup last week for the Giants, but he didn’t put as big of a dent into Tracy’s workload as I expected. The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense, however, did put that dent into it. The Eagles jumped ahead on the scoreboard early, forcing the Giants into a pass-heavy approach, and the Eagles had Daniel Jones under fire on every dropback. New York totaled just 119 offensive yards and had 9 drives that ended in punts after 5 or fewer plays (including 5 three-and-outs). It’s impossible for any running back to get going when the offense is that inept, and this week’s matchup with Pittsburgh could be a repeat of the same. I expect the Giants will try to lean on the run game early to protect Jones from TJ Watt and the Steelers’ pass rush, but Pittsburgh won’t make it easy – they rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th fewest RB points per game. There’s also a chance that Singletary was being eased back in after his injury and could see his snaps increase this week. It all adds up to making Tracy a risky flex option in this one. 

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk.8: vs. Ari.): De’Von Achane returned from his concussion last weekend and Wright was limited to just a 9% snap share behind both Achane and Mostert. He made the most of his chances, rushing for 33 yards on 5 carries, and is up to 5.1 yards per carry for the season, but he isn’t going to give you much fantasy value with that workload. The Cardinals allow the 12^th-most RB points per game, but most of that damage will be done by Achane & Mostert.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 8: @ Sea.): With James Cook back in the lineup last weekend, Davis was limited to just a 22% snap share, the exact same share as fellow backup Ty Johnson. Davis did post a respectable week with 47 scrimmage yards and a TD, but that’s pretty much the ceiling here unless the Bills win in a romp. If you start Davis in fantasy lineups this week, you’re banking on a TD to get him to an acceptable final stat line.  

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): McMillan has a great opportunity at a breakout game this week as he could be serving as the Bucs’ de facto WR1 against a Falcons’ defense that allows the 11^th-most WR points per game. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will be on the shelf for several weeks (Godwin for the year), and McMillan was operating as the WR3 before those injuries. It’s still unclear though if he’ll be used mostly on the perimeter, as he has been so far, or if he’ll be moved into Chris Godwin’s slot role – he was primarily a slot receiver in college. Atlanta slot corner Dee Alford is the weakest link in their secondary. It all shapes up to a situation where McMillan has a good shot at being a quality start this week, but the WR pecking order in the wake of Monday night’s injuries still has a lot of uncertainty, and McMillan has totaled just 6-74-1 on 123 routes run this season. It’s a big leap of faith to plug him in as a starter given his production so far. I’d treat him as a risky WR4 with big upside this week.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Pearsall was on the field a ton in his NFL debut with the 49ers extremely short-handed at WR (he was in a route on 84% of the team dropbacks), but those snaps didn’t add up to big production as he ended up with 3 catches for 21 yards on 5 targets. Brandon Aiyuk is done for the year, and as of Thursday, it looks like Jauan Jennings will be out again this week, but Deebo and George Kittle should be able to play. I expect the 49ers to pummel the Cowboys on the ground – Dallas ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA and allows over 140 rushing yards per game – and for them to run the passing game through Deebo and Kittle when they do throw. I think you can probably count on something like 5-6 targets for Pearsall as the team WR2 this week, but that makes him just a WR4 option in fantasy lineups in my opinion.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 8: @ Sea.): Coleman’s final stat line looked great last weekend if he was in your lineup. He caught 4 of 7 targets for 125 yards, easily his best yardage game of the season and the first time he’s caught for at least 60 yards in a game. If you look closer, you’ll notice that half of his production (2 catches and 67 yards) came on the Bills’ final drive with a 3-possession lead in the final 5 minutes. Those points still count the same in fantasy football, but I wouldn’t expect the Bills to be throwing deep in games that are already decided very often going forward. The true worry I have for Coleman is that Amari Cooper played just 35% of the snaps in this game. Cooper’s role and playing time are going to grow quickly, and that’ll leave less work for Coleman, who is already averaging just 4 targets per game. He’s going to be a boom-or-bust option going forward, including this week against a Seattle team that allows 13^th-fewest WR points per game. He’s an upside WR4 if you want to roll the dice on him booming again this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 8: @ Was.): Through 6 games, Odunze has reached double-digit PPR points just once, and continues to struggle to stand out in this crowded passing attack. This matchup with Washington is one I would’ve circled for Odunze a few weeks ago as a great spot for a big game, but the Commanders have been better against the pass in recent weeks, allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games (albeit against bad passing offenses – ARI, CLE, and CAR). This is still a matchup where good receivers can excel, but the Bears’ coaches just haven’t made Odunze a priority in this offense. I’d expect him to see something like 4-5 targets, and would count it as a win if he hits 10+ PPR points for the 2^nd time this season.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Franklin isn’t quite playing a full-time role yet (he was in a route on 67% of the team dropbacks last Thursday, but he’s moved into fantasy consideration after posting back-to-back double-digit PPR performances. He tallied 5 catches for 50 yards last week and gets to face a hapless Panthers’ defense this week. My concern for Franklin is that he has been much better against man coverage than zone, and the Panthers play man coverage at the 5^th-lowest rate in the NFL. Per PFF, Franklin has been targeted on 42.1% of his routes run vs. man coverage and put up 0.76 fantasy points per route run on those plays. Those numbers are just 18.5% and 0.22 vs. zone. When you’re only playing two-thirds of the snaps, those little nuances could be the difference between a WR50 finish and a WR30 finish for the week. I’d probably look elsewhere rather than count on another 10-point day from Franklin against the zone-heavy Panthers.

WRs Xavier Legette & Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 8: @ Den.): Andy Dalton sprained his thumb this week in a car accident, and now it’ll be Bryce Young under center for the Panthers against a Denver defense that ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA. My advice is to pretty much stay away from all Panthers’ skill players this week aside from Chuba Hubbard. Young has been the worst passer in the NFL this season, with a passer rating below 50, and fewer than 5 yards per pass attempt, and the Broncos are about as bad of a matchup as he could’ve drawn here. If you got more than 5 PPR points out of either of these receivers this week, it would be a win.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 8 : vs. NYJ) : I mentioned in the week 7 Rookie Report that Patriots HC Jerod Mayo called out Polk last week, and Polk responded Sunday by logging zero catches on 3 targets. Pop Douglas battled an illness and barely played, and Polk still was limited to a 52% route participation rate. His playing time has continued to dwindle, with that route rate dropping from 97% to 69% to 52% over the last 3 games while Kendrick Bourne (27% -> 52% -> 62%) and Kayshon Boutte (23% -> 59% -> 76% -> 88%) have seen their playing time grow in recent weeks. I’d expect Douglas to be over his illness by Sunday, and that likely means Polk will be serving as the team’s WR4. The Jets’ secondary is getting healthy this week, and I don’t expect much production from Polk on what should be very limited playing time.

WRs Bub Means & Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 8: @ LAC): With Rashid Shaheed sidelined for the rest of the season, Means and Tipton will continue as the team’s WR2 & 3 going forward, but this isn’t a good week to insert either into fantasy lineups. Spencer Rattler will likely start at QB again this week, and Chris Olave and Taysom Hill should both return to the lineup. I expect Hill’s return means the Saints will lean on the run game and limit Rattler’s chances to turn the ball over, and Olave’s return means he’ll dominate the targets in the passing game. The Chargers play at the slowest pace in the NFL, so matchups against them already have fewer total plays than an average game. Fewer total plays means fewer pass plays, and fewer targets to go around. If Derek Carr returns, you could maybe get away with starting Means if you’re desperate, but with a full slate of games this week, you shouldn’t be at that level of desperation. Tipton will likely lose more snaps to Taysom Hill than Means will.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 8 : @ Den.): If you missed the blurb above about Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, I’m advising that you stay away from all Carolina skill players except Chuba Hubbard now that we know Bryce Young will be under center. Sanders has been on a nice trajectory in recent weeks with Tommy Tremble sidelined and Andy Dalton starting – he’s set new PPR season-high point totals in 4 straight weeks, including his first top-12 positional finish of the year last weekend. I was already a little wary of Sanders this week due to the possibility of Tommy Tremble returning to the lineup. Tremble has played comfortably ahead of Sanders when healthy, and although Sanders has made a strong case in recent weeks that he should be the starter going forward, NFL coaches are usually slow to make those kinds of changes. Dave Canales will likely notice that the Panthers have been much more competitive on the scoreboard with a healthy Tommy Tremble – their only win and their only loss by 10 or fewer points were in the two games where Tremble played 80% or more of the snaps. Bryce Young under center likely makes the Tremble conversation moot this week anyway. Sanders has just 4 catches for 14 yards on throws from Bryce Young this season. He’s a risky play even as a TE2 this week regardless of Tremble’s status.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 8: @ NE): Allen’s playing time has decreased in 3 straight games now since Todd Downing took over the Jets’ offensive play-calling, bottoming out at just a 9% snap share and 3 touches in week 7. The Jets are favored by a full touchdown this week, and the Patriots are an awful run defense – they rank 28^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game – but playing Allen this week is nothing more than a bet on garbage time touches. It’ll be the Breece Hall show again if it remains close, and with Drake Maye at QB for New England and the Jets’ secondary a little banged up, it might remain close.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Jordan Mason played in week 7 despite a questionable tag, and Guerendo played just 9% of the offensive snaps as a result. The 49ers should lean harder on the run game with their WR group in shambles due to injuries and a bout with pneumonia – the Cowboys are one of the worst run defenses in the league - but most of that work will go to Mason. Guerendo likely will play just a handful of snaps unless they run away with the game.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 8: @ LV): Steele made it through a game without fumbling for the first time in a few weeks last Sunday, but he played just a 19% snap share for the third week in a row. His run as a useful fantasy back this season is likely over. KC is favored by 10 points this week, so there’s a chance Steele gets a few carries in garbage time if this game is a blowout, but those carries are just as likely to go to Samaje Perine as they are to go to Steele. He’s a garbage time TD dart throw if you’re desperate this week.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 8: @ Den.): Brooks did not make his anticipated return in week 7, so we get to wait and hope he makes his NFL debut in week 8 instead. Chuba Hubbard has been playing more than 80% of the snaps in the last two weeks and has finished in the top-20 fantasy RBs in each of the last 5 games. As I mentioned last week, Brooks will need Chuba to get hurt or falter if he wants to take over the lead back role, and he’ll likely need a ramp-up period before he can even overtake Miles Sanders for the RB2 role.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 8: @ Mia.): Benson continues to be an afterthought in the Cardinals’ backfield mix. He played just 7% of the snaps on Monday night and didn’t touch the ball even once. The last time he was at a 20% or higher snap share was in week 1, and he’s tallied 5 or fewer touches in 5 out of 7 games this season. There was some hope for Benson last weekend as James Conner was battling an ankle injury, but Conner wound up dominating the backfield work Monday night. This is a week where extra opportunities would be a good thing for Benson. The Dolphins rank 30^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-most RB points per game, but I’m not confident those extra opportunities will come.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk.8: vs. Min.): I noted ahead of the Rams’ week 6 bye that Corum had moved ahead of Ronnie Rivers on the depth chart to become the primary backup, but his role remains extremely limited behind Kyren Williams. Corum was on the field for just 10% of the Rams’ offensive snaps last weekend and carried 3 times for 11 yards. That limited role won’t make him a useful fantasy play this week against a Minnesota defense that ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA and allows the 9^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 8: @ Jax.): Lloyd is eligible to come off IR at any time for the Packers, but it sounds unlikely that he’ll get cleared to play this week. Even if he is able to play, he’s got work to do to move back ahead of Emmanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks for the backup RB job.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): McCaffrey has been in a route on 40% or more of the Commanders’ dropbacks in 6 of 7 games this season, but he still hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this season. He was targeted zero times in week 7, and this week faces a Chicago defense that allows the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. You’d need something miraculous to get value out of McCaffrey in your lineups this week.

WR Jacob Cowing, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): A decimated 49ers WR corps forced Cowing into his first extended action of the season last Sunday, and he posted a solid 2-50 line that included a 41-yard catch. The 49ers entered the game without Jauan Jennings, and then lost Deebo Samuel to pneumonia and Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL, but despite all of those missing receivers, Cowing still ranked just 4^th in route participation rate among the rest of the team’s wideouts. Ricky Pearsall (84%), Chris Conley (73%) and Ronnie Bell (38%) all ran routes at much higher rates than Cowing (22%). The big play was nice, but Cowing is no higher than 4^th on this depth chart, and he’s lower than that if Deebo or Jennings return this week.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): With Malik Nabers back on the field, Johnson went back to running wind sprints. The rookie tight end was in a route on 88% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but he was credited with zero targets after the only pass thrown in his direction resulted in a zero-yard catch that was nullified by an offensive pass interference penalty. Johnson totaled 8 targets in the two games that Nabers missed. He’s totaled 4 in the last 4 games that Nabers played. The Steelers do allow the 11^th-most TE points per game, but it’s hard to produce points if the ball doesn’t come your way.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): All hit a 50% route participation rate on Sunday, the first time all season that he’s run more routes than Mike Gesicki, but it means nothing if he’s not being targeted. This passing game has been funneled through Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase since Higgins got back up to speed. All has earned just 5 targets on 44 routes run over the last 3 games. The increased playing time is promising, but it likely doesn’t come with increased fantasy value for now.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Sinnott finally earned his first NFL target last week, and on top of that, his first catch and first TD as well. He finished with 2 catches for 6 yards and a TD on 2 targets. Both targets happened while Washington was up by at least 30 points on the scoreboard. Don’t read anything into it. It’s not a significant change in his usage, and you can continue to ignore him in fantasy lineups this week in what should be a much more competitive contest for the Commanders.

Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 8 : vs. NO): Vidal has averaged 5 touches and 35 yards per game in the two contests he’s played since Gus Edwards went on IR, and those were both against teams that rank in the top-10 in run defense DVOA. This week he gets to face a faltering Saints team that ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA and may have to start Spencer Rattler at QB again if Derek Carr can’t get cleared. The Chargers are currently 7-point favorites, but I’d expect that number to grow if Carr is ruled out. There could be ample opportunity for garbage time touches against a team that allows the 5^th-most RB points per game. I’d probably keep Vidal parked on the bench if Carr starts, but if it’s Rattler again, I’d treat Vidal as a sneaky upside RB4 option.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Estime has played a very limited role since coming back from IR a couple weeks ago. He’s played just 7 snaps in the last 2 weeks, but there’s reason to think this week that could change this week – garbage time. The Broncos are hosting the hapless Panthers, who are forced to go back to Bryce Young at QB this week after Andy Dalton hurt his thumb in a car accident. Denver is favored by 10 points, and the Panthers rank dead last in run defense DVOA and allow more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. The Panthers have lost by 18 or more points in 5 of their 7 games this year (including both games Young has started). If things go according to plan, Estime could easily log double-digit touches in the 2^nd half of the game. I’d view this as more of a desperation option than anything since there’s never a guarantee that a game will go according to script, but the upside is there for a top-30 RB finish or better.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): I mentioned above that Troy Franklin has been at his best against man coverage this season, but the opposite has been true for Vele, who has done his best work against zone. Vele has been targeted on 23.3% of his routes vs. zone coverage, and has scored 0.45 fantasy points per route run against those coverages. The Panthers play man coverage at the 5^th-lowest rate in the league, so Vele should have some added upside this week. I like his chances to compile his way to 10-12 PPR points, which should make him a viable WR3/4 option against a Carolina team that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 8: @ Hou.): Mitchell has been a frustrating player in fantasy this season because the talent is apparent when he’s on the field, but he just isn’t getting on the field enough. When Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce are all active, Mitchell is typically limited to a route participation rate somewhere south of 25%, and while Pittman and Downs didn’t practice Wednesday, they were both back Thursday and I wouldn’t hold my breath that either guy sits this week. The reason I have some interest in Mitchell this week is because this is a matchup where he could make something happen in those limited snaps. Mitchell has been targeted on a third of his routes run this year, he has an aDOT of 15.2 yards downfield, and he faces a Houston secondary that he got behind a few times in week 1 on some tantalizing near-misses. It only takes one of those near misses to turn into a connection for him to suddenly have double-digit fantasy points. Obviously, this is a low percentage bet given the playing time issues, so I probably wouldn’t plug him into lineups, but it might be worth betting a couple dollars on an anytime TD.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 8: vs. Ari.): I wouldn’t plug Washington into any lineups this week, but it’s worth mentioning that he was in a route on 50% of the team passing dropbacks last Sunday. It was his highest mark of the season, and he played ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. Things could change for Malik this week with Tua back, and he’ll certainly have a hard time earning more than just a few opportunities per game with all of the firepower Miami has at their disposal, but he could be worth a stash in the deepest of leagues on the off chance that the 50% route participation rate last week wasn’t a fluke.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Don’t start Whittington this week, he’s been ruled out for Thursday night’s contest with the Vikings already, but he’s an intriguing buy-low candidate as the Rams actively shop Cooper Kupp around as he returns from IR. Puka Nacua is returning as well, and he definitely isn’t getting traded, but Whittington could still serve as the team WR2 the rest of the way if Kupp is dealt. Whittington has been targeted on a solid 24% of his routes run this season, and finished as the PPR WR33 and WR16 in his last two healthy games played. Whittington’s goose egg last week, absence this week, and Kupp & Puka returns could mean an impatient manager has already dropped the rookie or will take a deeply discounted price for him. He’s worth a speculative stash or cheap trade to acquire in case Kupp gets moved.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We are already a third of the way through the NFL season. Time flies when you’re having fun, right? The truth is a lot of us are not having fun this year dealing with what feels like a never-ending avalanche of injuries. I feel like I’m talking about this every week, but every week there have been more back-breaking injuries that have to be worked around. This week it’s Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed, and Marvin Harrison Jr., and Dallas Goedert, and Travis Etienne. As crushing as those injuries can be, the NFL season marches on. We don’t have time to dwell on the players we don’t have. We need to be able to pivot and move on.

The silver lining here at the Rookie Report is that all of these injuries continue to make more and more rookies relevant each week. This week’s report touches on 4 QBs, 15 RBs, 20 WRs, and 5 TEs. I’ve been doing this Rookie Report since 2012, and this may be the most rookies I’ve ever written about in one week. We’ve got a lot to get through, so let’s get down to business.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 7…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): You already know what to do here. Daniels has scored 20+ fantasy points in all but one game this season, and he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league this week. Carolina ranks 31^st in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-most QB points per game. He can’t be on your bench if you have him.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Nabers has missed two consecutive games due to a concussion, and he’s still the WR12 in total points for the year. He’s already been cleared to return this week, and if he’s back in the lineup, he should be back in yours. Nabers had logged 3 straight top-6 PPR finishes before getting hurt, and the Eagles have allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game on the year.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 7: @ LAR): For Bowers, the Raiders’ change at QB was a non-issue in week 6. Bowers logged his 4^th top-5 PPR finish of the season in O’Connell’s first start, and with the news that Davante Adams is now gone to New York, Bowers should be the de facto WR1 in this offense going forward. That was probably already the case, but he no longer has the return of Adams looming over him. Will there still be a down game now and then? I’m sure there will, but he’s a player who should be plugged into your lineup every week. This week he faces a Rams’ defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most TE points per game. The Rams have allowed a tight end to hit 40+ yards in 4 of their 5 games this season, and Bowers demands a higher target share than just about every other tight end they’ve faced.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 7: @ Jax.): Maye made quite an impression in his first NFL start. We were all hopeful he’d give the Patriots’ passing game a much-needed spark, and he certainly came through. Jacoby Brissett’s season-high passing yardage mark this season was 168 yards, and he had totals of just 2 passing TDs and 49 rushing yards for the year. Maye eclipsed all of those numbers in just 1 game, throwing for 243 yards and 3 scores last Sunday, while adding 50 rushing yards to boot. I don’t expect Maye to duplicate last week’s performance every week, but the arrow for this passing game is clearly pointing up, and they get a fantastic matchup in week 7. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed each of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to tally 23+ fantasy points. Deshaun Watson is the only QB this year to finish worse than QB9 against the Jaguars. I wouldn’t immediately rank Maye in the top-10 QBs this week, but he’s should be treated as at least a mid-range QB2.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 7: @ NO): I’d only think about Nix in 2-QB and superflex leagues this week, but I think he’s worth consideration Thursday night in those formats. His performances so far haven’t been pretty to watch. Often the passing numbers are abysmal – he’s yet to hit 250 passing yards in a game and has averaged fewer than 4 yards per attempt twice, and the team is averaging just 18.7 points per game (8^th-lowest in the league) - but Nix keeps willing his way into decent fantasy performances. The rookie has now posted back-to-back top-10 finishes, and has only turned the ball over once in his last 4 games. He’s also averaging 6 points of rushing production per week, giving him a decent floor even when the passing numbers are bad. The matchup this week looks tough on paper. The Saints allow the 9^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up plenty of passing yards. New Orleans has allowed 290 or more passing yards in 4 of their last 5 games. If Nix can finally hit 250 and keep his solid rushing floor, he’s going to creep his way into the QB2 ranks pretty easily.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Tracy’s outlook this week is once again going to be dependent on whether Devin Singletary gets cleared to return. Singletary is practicing in a limited capacity, but he did the same last week and eventually sat. If Devin sits again, Tracy should again serve as the RB1 in a matchup that’s better than you might think. The Eagles have allowed the 13^th-fewest RB points per game, but that’s largely because they haven’t let any running backs get into the end zone. Bucky Irving is the only RB to score a TD against Philly this year, but they’ve allowed the 9^th most RB rushing yards per game and 9^th-most RB receiving yards per game, and rank a paltry 29^th in run defense DVOA. This is a team that can be run on, and I expect Tracy to have success if he gets the starting nod. I’d view him as a borderline top-20 play in that scenario. If Singletary returns, I think Tracy will play a lot more than he was playing prior to the Singletary injury, and may still be able to find his way to a passable RB3 performance. He’s a good starting option if Singletary is out, and a dicey one if Singletary plays.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 7: vs. NE): Thomas predictably had a bit of a down week last Sunday in London against a tough Bears’ defense, but there’s no reason to overreact to one bad game. If Thomas had posted another strong outing against the Bears, he would’ve graduated to the section above, but we’ll keep him closer to the borderline for now. The rookie is still the PPR WR14 on the season and gets a much more favorable matchup this weekend (again in London). New England is a middling WR defense, allowing the 17^th-most WR points per game, but they rank just 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Thomas is likely to draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez in this game, but that hasn’t been a huge hinderance to the other receivers he’s shadowed. Gonzalez has been targeted on 27% of his coverage snaps and the Patriots have allowed the 9^th-most fantasy points to perimeter WRs this season. I’m not sure I’d pencil BTJ in for his 3^rd top-10 finish in the last 4 weeks, but he should be a solid WR2 option against the Pats.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): If you’ve been starting Harrison every week this year, he’s now burned you 3 times in 6 games, but it’s hard to blame him for the concussion last weekend. There’s not much he could’ve done to give you production from the blue medical tent. In spite of the down weeks, and in spite of his tough matchup this week (the Chargers allow the 6^th-fewest WR points per game), I’m recommending you go back to the well again this week if Harrison is able to get cleared. He was practicing in a non-contact jersey as of Thursday, so there’s a good chance he’s able to suit up this week. Harrison has finished as a top-24 PPR WR in 3 of his last 4 healthy games, and he’s had a 24% or higher target share and 33% or higher air yardage share in each of them. He’s getting excellent usage that should continue this week, and it’s hard to view him as any worse than a WR3 if he’s able to play. One word of caution here – Harrison doesn’t play until Monday night and still has a questionable tag. If you’re planning to start him, make sure he’s cleared or that you have a contingency plan ready to go in case he’s not able to play. In a perfect world, you’ll have him in a flex spot and give yourself some flexibility. There are 2 Monday night games this week, so anyone on the Chargers, Cardinals, Ravens, or Bucs could be used as your contingency.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.): This is shaping up to a week that could be Legette’s best of the season. The Panthers have been missing Diontae Johnson in practice all week and they face one of the worst secondaries in the league on Sunday in Washington. I don’t know if Diontae’s absences are truly due to the injuries or due to waiting on a trade to come together, but either way, if Johnson misses this game, Legette would serve as the de facto WR1 against a Washington defense allowing 18.3 fantasy PPG to opposing WR1s. His production hasn’t been overwhelming the last two weeks, but this is a get-right matchup. I think he’s a solid WR3 if Diontae sits. If Diontae plays, I think I’d still be fine leaving Legette in this section, but I’d move him to the bottom of it and rank him behind McConkey, Worthy, and Whittington.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 7: @ Ari.): McConkey continued to get the kind of usage most receivers can only dream of last weekend, logging an 85% route participation rate and earning a 25% or better target share for the 4th time in 5 games (he was at 21% in the other game). The problem for McConkey is team passing volume. He’s emerged as Justin Herbert’s favorite target, but the Chargers rank dead last in pass attempts per game. In games where the Chargers are underdogs or face good WR matchups, McConkey will be a solid PPR WR3 play. In games where they’re favored and/or face tough matchups, he probably won’t be. This week he gets a favorable matchup. The point spread is just 2.5 points, so game script should remain somewhat neutral, and the Cardinals have allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game and rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA. The Cards have been more vulnerable on the perimeter than in the slot, but I expect McConkey’s steady weekly target share to give him a great opportunity at a WR3 performance in this one.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 7: @ SF): Worthy remains a boom-or-bust fantasy option, but as expected, the absence of Rashee Rice has cut down on that volatility a little bit. Worthy has now logged an 80% route participation rate or higher in each of the last 2 games, and though he hasn’t been heavily targeted, he’s still finished as a WR3 or better in each of those 2 contests. He could finally see his target share start to tick upward this week after JuJu Smith-Schuster was added to the injury report Thursday with a hamstring issue. JuJu led the Chiefs’ WRs in targets in their last game. Worthy’s limited route tree makes it tough for him to become a true target hog, but the JuJu injury is just another layer added to the rookie’s floor. The 49ers are a formidable matchup – they allow the 13^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA, but I like Worthy’s chances to find his way to another WR3 day, and his speed always gives him a ceiling beyond that.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Whittington’s outlook could hit a snag this week if Cooper Kupp is able to return, but if Kupp remains out, I like Whittington to post a 3^rd straight solid game. In the last two games before the Rams’ bye last weekend, Whittington had earned 18 total targets and posted 12+ PPR points in each game. He’s effectively been the WR1 in the last two games for LA, and while the Raiders have allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, they also rank just 24^th in pass defense DVOA. I’d treat Whittington as a stable WR3 this week if Kupp sits, albeit one without a huge ceiling. If Kupp comes back, all bets are off, as Whittington could find himself splitting snaps with Tutu Atwell rather than playing a full-time role.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): I believed Rattler had sneaky upside last week because he had strong weapons and a good matchup, and he put up a respectable performance in spite of Chris Olave being injured right out of the gate, finishing as the QB20 for the week with 243 passing yards and a TD. I don’t believe that same upside exists this week. The Saints will be without both Olave and Rashid Shaheed on Thursday night, and Denver is a much tougher matchup. The Broncos have held 4 of the 6 QBs they’ve faced below 200 passing yards, and they’ve held 5 of 6 below 2 total TDs and 14 fantasy points (Rattler scored 14.4 last weekend). Spencer will be hard-pressed to match what he did on Sunday. He’s a bottom-of-the-barrel option this week among starting QBs. Patrick Surtain being out for this one is a small bump for Rattler, but he’s still just a fringe QB2 at best.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): There is probably no harder backfield in the NFL to figure out than the one in Tampa Bay. Irving and Rachaad White have been part of a 2-man committee all year, with Irving slowly creeping closer to an even split with the incumbent starter, but week 6 threw a big wrench into this situation. That wrench is named Sean Tucker. White was sidelined with an injury last weekend, and rather than Irving taking over a workhorse role, he split the backfield with Tucker, and Tucker made the most of his opportunity. Both Irving and Tucker finished the week as RB1s, but Tucker finished it as THE RB1 after putting up 192 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs. It appears as though White is going to return this week, and if he does, head coach Todd Bowles has said this that all 3 backs will play and he’ll take the dreaded ‘hot hand’ approach to sorting out the backfield. In this matchup, it’s possible that no one develops the hot hand against a Baltimore defense that has allowed just 45 RB rushing yards per game. The Ravens rank 4^th in run defense DVOA and have only allowed 2 backs all year to reach 10 fantasy points against them. Even if the Bucs go back to Irving and White splitting the backfield work, and Tucker fades into the background again, it’s hard to be confident in either guy posting better than an RB3 day, and that’s if they find their way into the end zone.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Ten.): Davis put on a show on Monday night while James Cook was sidelined by a toe injury, leading the Bills in both rushing and receiving while finishing as the RB14 for the week. He faces a stiff test this week against a Titans’ defense that allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA, but I would still be telling you to start him if I was convinced that he’d have the lead role to himself. James Cook practiced in full on Thursday, so I’d be very surprised if he’s inactive again. That means Davis returns to splitting the backup work with Ty Johnson. I think Davis showed enough last week that he could carve out a bigger role going forward, but not big enough to be a strong lineup option in a tough matchup like this one. If you have to start him, you’re just praying he gets a couple cracks at the goal line.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 7: @ Ind.): Wright had his best game of the season in week 5 ahead of Miami’s bye last week after De’Von Achane suffered an early game concussion. Wright still played behind Raheem Mostert, logging just a 34% snap share and 34% rush attempt share in that game, but he found a lot more success than Mostert, piling up 86 rushing yards on 13 carries. Unfortunately for Wright, it appears that Achane is in line to return this week, which pushes Wright into a 3-headed backfield at best. I’m not convinced he’ll play ahead of Mostert as the RB2 (if Achane is back) despite the strong performance the last time out. If Achane isn’t able to get cleared though, Wright has some flex appeal against an Indy defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most rushing yards per game behind only the Rams.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 7: @ Pit.): I was enthused for Allen last week as the Jets took on one the worst running back fantasy defenses in the league, but the Jets’ change in play caller seems to have derailed that enthusiasm. Allen played just 19% of the snaps in week 6 – his lowest snap share since week 1 – and was limited to just 3 carries and 2 targets. It’ll be hard to trust that Allen will get a big enough share of the work going forward to be a flex option until we see it happen with Todd Downing calling the plays. Keep him parked on the bench against a Pittsburgh defense allowing the 8^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 7: @ SF): Steele has been limited to just a 19% snap share in each of the two games Kansas City has played since signing Kareem Hunt. Steele would’ve played more in week 4, but he lost a fumble and was sent to the bench. After the game, Andy Reid said the team still had confidence in Steele and that he ‘isn’t a fumbler.’ Then he lost another fumble in week 5, and again spent most of the game on the bench. Steele is likely coming out of the bye comfortably behind Hunt and Samaje Perine on the depth chart. He might be behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire at this point too.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Ten.): Coleman has been largely underwhelming through the season’s first 6 weeks. He came in as a 1^st round pick to a WR room with no clear leader, and he’s struggled to separate himself from the pack (and also from cornerbacks). Coleman has finished as a top-40 PPR receiver just once in his first 6 games, and this week the Bills decided to go out and trade for that WR room leader that they’ve been missing in Amari Cooper. Coleman already has just a 14% target share on the year. It’s hard to envision that drastically going up once Cooper gets integrated. This week’s opponent, the Titans, have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, so I’d view it as a bad week to expect Coleman to get on track. I’d treat him as a WR5 this week.

WR Ja’Lynn Pok, NE (Wk. 7: @ Jax.): The first start of Drake Maye didn’t bring the boost for Polk that we were hoping for last weekend. He lost playing time to Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne (Polk saw his route participation rate drop from 97% to 69% while Boutte’s rate went up 17% and Bourne’s jumped by 25%). Polk also saw his target share go in the wrong direction. He had totaled 13 targets in weeks 4 & 5, and was down to just 3 in week 6 as Demario Douglas emerged as Maye’s go-to receiver. Polk was even called out by his head coach Jerod Mayo after the game. Mayo said Polk needs to eliminate the dropped passes, be better at blocking, and work harder…not exactly things you want to hear about your fantasy WRs. In spite of all that, Polk has a chance to bounce back against the Jaguars’ terrible secondary. Jacksonville allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game and ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. I still think I’d be hesitant to fire him up this week given the way other receivers on the team are stepping up.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.): Sanders set a new season-high fantasy point total for the 3^rd straight game in week 6, but that peak game was good enough for just a TE16 finish. He tallied 5 catches for 49 yards on 7 targets. If Tommy Tremble is out again this week with the concussion he suffered in week 4, Sanders is a viable option if you’re looking for a fringe TE1. He’s playing close to a full-time role, and there’s enough passing volume for him to be a factor. The Commanders are a bad pass defense, ranking 29^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve been much more vulnerable to receivers than tight ends. They’ve coughed up the 12^th-fewest TE points per game. I’m still not quite ready to say you should be starting Sanders in 1-TE formats, especially in this matchup. If Tommy Tremble is able to play, Sanders shouldn’t even be considered.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Johnson has benefitted the last two weeks from the absence of Malik Nabers, putting up stat lines of 5-48 and 3-30 without Nabers around to hog all of the targets. Nabers will return this week, which should leave Theo as an afterthought in the passing game as he was earlier in the year. Theo has shown himself to be a passable TE2 if you’re in a pinch when Nabers is out, but the matchup this week is rough even if Nabers weren’t able to return. The Eagles have allowed the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.):Brooks has returned to practice this week and has a realistic chance of making his season debut on Sunday, but Chuba Hubbard has just been too good to be pushed to the bench. Hubbard finished as the PPR RB16 last weekend after posting 3 consecutive top-7 finishes in the weeks prior. Hubbard is basically an RB1 right now, and he’s going to continue to handle the bulk of the backfield work until we see some slippage. Brooks will likely be eased in at first and could eventually work his way up to a 30-40% share of the work over the next few weeks. If Hubbard gets injured or falters at any point, it could open the door to Brooks taking over the lead back role, but until that happens, Brooks’ ceiling is as the team RB2. I wouldn’t expect more than a few touches this week if Brooks is active.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Corum finally moved ahead of Ronnie Rivers into the Rams’ RB2 role in week 5 ahead of the bye, but it didn’t lead to significant production. Corum was on the field for just 14% of the team snaps behind Kyren Williams. He carried the ball 5 times and was targeted once, and he finished with 33 scrimmage yards on the day. Corum did get stopped at the goal line a couple of times in that contest, only to watch Kyren Williams ultimately score the TD. The climb up the depth chart is good news for Corum, but this is still Kyren’s backfield. The Raiders are a weak run defense, ranking 28^th in run defense DVOA, but it’ll likely have to be a lopsided score for the rookie back to get more than a handful of touches in this one. He’s no more than a desperation play this week.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): There was a chance for Benson to move up a bit this week after James Conner left last week’s contest with an ankle injury, but Conner is practicing in full as of Thursday and should be good to go Monday night. Even with Conner sitting for the majority of last weekend’s game, Benson played just 18% of the offensive snaps. The Cardinals will continue to roll with Emari Demercado in negative game scripts, making Benson an afterthought. The Cardinals are 2.5-point underdogs this week, so perhaps they keep this one close and are able to keep running, but Conner’s health means Benson probably only gets a handful of carries if they do. The Chargers have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game for the season and rank 7^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Lloyd is eligible to return from IR this week, so he may be worth a stash in deep leagues, but it’s going to take time for him to work himself back into the rotation here. Emmanuel Wilson has performed admirably as the RB2, averaging 5 yards per carry behind Josh Jacobs. Lloyd isn’t going to just be handed his spot on the depth chart upon his return.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 7: @ NO): Estime returned from injured reserve last week, but he returned as the team’s clear RB3 and played just 2 snaps while Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin played 36 and 13, respectively. Estime can’t be started until we see that role grow.

RB Terrell Jennings, NE (Wk. 7: @ Jax.): You may not have heard of Jennings before – he’s a UDFA out of Florida A&M - but he was a part of the Patriots’ running back rotation last weekend with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined. He played 22% of the snaps and logged 5 carries for 13 yards. Jennings essentially served as the change of pace back on early downs behind Antonio Gibson while JaMycal Hasty served that role on passing downs. If Rhamondre misses another game, I’d expect Jennings to have a similar role, but it isn’t one that’s likely to lead to fantasy goodness, even in a good matchup against the Jaguars.

RB Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 7: @ LAR): Laube finally played his first snap of the season in week 6…and he fumbled on that one snap. It might be a while before he plays his second.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): The return of Noah Brown in week 6 meant McCaffrey was once again relegated to the muddled WR 3/4/5 range on this team with Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown. McCaffrey still hasn’t reached 4 targets in any game this year, and he’s hit 15 or more air yards in a game just once. He needs volume to be relevant on his short targets, and that volume just isn’t there, even in a good matchup with a bad Panthers’ defense.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): McMillan returned from injury in week 6, but he did not return to his pre-injury role. Jalen logged route participation rates of 80% or higher in each of the first 3 games of the season, but that number was at 15% in week 6 as Sterling Shepard was at 83%. There’s a chance we see some of that work shift back to McMillan this week, but it’s not something I would rely on for fantasy lineups. The Ravens do allow the most WR points per game, but I’d still keep McMillan parked on the bench.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Pearsall’s practice window is officially open this week as he works his way back from an IR stint for a gunshot wound. It’s possible he could be active as soon as this week, but the top 3 receivers in this offense are so well established, it’s going to take time for the 1^st-round pick to carve out any sort of meaningful role. In the past 3 games, WRs not named Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or Jauan Jennings have run a total of 15 routes. There is a sliver of hope here as Jennings and Deebo are both questionable this week (Deebo is practicing as of Thursday, Jennings is not). If one or both of those players sit and Pearsall is active, he could serve as a starter and have a path to a handful of targets, but there’s no guarantee he plays a large role even in that scenario.

WR Adonai Mitchell. IND (Wk. 7: vs. Mia.): Mitchell’s opportunity for a breakout game in week 6 went by the wayside when Josh Downs was able to play with a toe injury and Michael Pittman Jr. miraculously recovered from a hamstring injury that had the team considering an IR stint for him. Instead of getting a chance as the WR2 in a high-volume Joe Flacco attack, he was relegated to his usual WR4 role. Mitchell was in a route on just 28% of the team dropbacks. The ball has come his way when he’s on the field – he’s getting open consistently and has been targeted on 30% or more of his routes in 4 straight games – but he’s not playing enough for that to matter. The outlook gets even worse for him this week. Anthony Richardson returns, lowering the passing volume substantially, and he faces a Miami defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Wilson was a healthy scratch in week 5, and was limited to just 1 route run in his NFL debut in week 6. I’d view it as a win if he’s able to get to a handful of routes run this week.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 7: @ Cle.): Over the last 4 weeks, Burton has gone from running 3 routes, to 2 routes, to 1, and then was a healthy scratch last Sunday night. I don’t expect he’ll be a healthy scratch every week, but he’s a long way off of being relevant right now.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 7: @ Cle.): All hit a season-high 40% route participation rate in week 6, but for the 2^nd week in a row, he was targeted on less than 15% or his routes. He had some TE2 appeal when he was racking up targets on his limited snaps, but the re-emergence of Tee Higgins seems to have deflated those target numbers. This week’s matchup isn’t a good one for tight ends anyway, as the Browns have allowed the 6^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): I’m going to repeat a popular refrain I’ve had for Sinnott this season…the next target he sees will be his first. The K-State product was the second tight end off the board in the NFL draft in April, but through 6 NFL games, he’s run just 35 targetless routes.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Guerendo is an intriguing option this week if Jordan Mason’s shoulder injury keeps him sidelined. Mason is practicing in a limited capacity early in the week, but keep tabs on the injury report here. After Mason departed last Thursday, Guerendo split snaps evenly with Patrick Taylor, but it was Guerendo’s breakaway 76-yard run to help seal the game that stole the show. I’d expect him to lead the backfield if Mason can’t play. The matchup is a tough one – KC allows the fewest RB points per game and ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA, but the 49ers are always going to lean on the run game. They’ve put up over 100 rushing yards in every game this season, including against a stingy Vikings’ defense when they were playing from behind all game. If any team can have success on the ground against KC, it’s the 49ers. If Mason plays, Guerendo is not a viable fantasy option, but he’s a reasonable flex play if Mason sits.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 7: @ Ari.): Vidal finally made his debut last weekend with Gus Edwards on IR, and he made a strong first impression, finding the end zone on a 38-yard catch on a wheel route for his first career touch. His playing time was still limited overall – he played just 24% of the snaps behind JK Dobbins – but Dobbins has an extensive injury history and there’s still room for Vidal’s role to grow even without an injury. He’s worth a stash as the next man up in one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league.

WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 7: @ NO): The Broncos have played quite the game of musical chairs at WR behind Courtland Sutton this season, seemingly changing on a whim who plays the bulk of the snaps each week. With Josh Reynolds now on IR, Franklin and Vele each logged around a 70% route participation rate last Sunday and put up PPR totals of 11.8 and 11.6 points, respectively. For now, they look like they’ll serve as the WR2 & WR3 while Reynolds is out, but of course that’s subject to change in this offense. Both receivers took different routes to get here…Vele was heavily involved in the offense in week 1, then hurt his ribs and was kept inactive for weeks after he’d recovered before finally getting back into the mix last week. Franklin, on the other hand, was minimally involved early and has slowly worked his way into a bigger role. Both players have shown a connection with Bo Nix. Franklin was his college teammate and has been one of the players Nix looks for when he throws deep (his aDOT for the season is 16.1 yards). Meanwhile Vele has been targeted 8 and 6 times in the two games he’s played with Nix, with most of those targets coming in the short and intermediate parts of the field. Both players are lucky enough this week that they get to avoid Marshon Lattimore, and that makes both of them sneaky upside WR4s. If you’re looking for ceiling, Franklin gets the better draw against the vulnerable Paulson Adebo. Adebo has allowed the 3^rd-highest PPR points per route run against him of any starting CB playing this week (per ESPN’s WR/CB Cheat Sheet). If you’re looking for a safe PPR floor instead, Vele should be the safer bet to provide that. Both guys are in play this week against a New Orleans defense that allows the 11^th-most WR points per game. 

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.): Diontae Johnson is not practicing this week as of Thursday, and a Johnson absence would be big news for Coker. It’s worth noting that Johnson is dealing with the same injury he played through the last two weeks, so the days off may just be for maintenance, but he’s practicing less this week than he did in the last two, so something may have changed. Coker has already shown himself to be a reliable target the last couple weeks and he’s already taken over the slot WR role and pushed Jonathan Mingo to the bench. If Diontae Johnson sits, it removes a 28% target share from the offense against a Commanders team that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game and ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA. Given the way he’s played the last couple weeks, I’d expect Coker to soak up some of those targets and should be able to find his way to a 5-50 sort of game. If you’re in a pinch in a deeper league, you could do worse than plugging in Coker if Diontae is out.

WR Bub Means & Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): The Saints enter their Thursday night tilt with the Broncos with both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed already ruled out for the week, elevating Means and Tipton into more prominent roles in the target pecking order. Means entered last week’s game after the injury to Olave, and he performed admirably, putting up 5-45-1 on 8 targets. Tipton has been serving as the starting WR3 for weeks now, but it hasn’t really translated into many fantasy points. This week’s matchup isn’t a great one, as the Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to WRs, but their star CB1 Patrick Surtain Jr. will miss this game with a concussion, softening that matchup just a bit. The Saints will start Spencer Rattler at QB once again, so the passing production could be volatile, but at the very least Means and Tipton will be on the field a lot, and we’ve seen at least one week of Rattler putting up reasonable production. If I were looking for a WR to pick here in a deep league, I’d go with Means. He’s shown a clear connection with Rattler, and will probably spend more time on the perimeter against Riley Moss and the Surtain replacement than Tipton will, but both players will have more upside than usual with Olave and Shaheed out. I’d view Means as a volatile WR4, and Tipton as a desperation dart throw.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully the first bye week of the season didn’t treat you too poorly, but more importantly, hopefully the injury bug hasn’t been too rough on you so far. This is a season that has already been a frustrating one when it comes to injuries, and the hits keep on coming this week. Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr., De’Von Achane, Derek Carr, Aaron Jones, and possibly Josh Allen have all added their names to the injury report this week. Not even kickers were immune, with Jake Moody suffering an ankle injury that likely cost the 49ers their week 5 game against Arizona.

Last week I dropped the ball on the injury front by not taking Devin Singletary’s injury seriously enough. I should have done a deeper dive into Tyrone Tracy and what his outlook would’ve been without Singletary, and I’ll try to do a better job of taking all injury possibilities into account here in week 6. There are plenty of rookies who could play crucial roles in filling in for injuries and byes in your lineups, and I want to provide the most thorough advice on the rookie crop that I can.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 6…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 6: @ Bal.): Daniels is the QB2 on the season, topping 20 fantasy points in 4 out of 5 games, and 25 points in 3 out of 5, and he gets to face a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. I do think there are some reasons for caution here – the Ravens have been better against QBs at home than on the road – but in season-long leagues don’t overthink this. Daniels should be started. To expand on the home/road split, Baltimore allowed 29+ fantasy points to Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow on the road and held Josh Allen below 8 points in Baltimore. This game is in Baltimore.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Nabers still isn’t practicing as of Thursday from the concussion he suffered two weeks ago, so obviously make sure he’s active before you start him in your lineups. We should have a better idea of how likely he is to play on Friday. A concussion is not an injury that results in a performance dip upon return, so you should feel comfortable firing up Nabers if he’s active. The Bengals have allowed the 13^th-most WR points per game this year but have been especially vulnerable to WR1s. They’ve allowed strong games to all of Rashee Rice (5-75-1), Terry McLaurin (4-100-1), Diontae Johnson (7-83-1), and Zay Flowers (7-111) in the last 4 weeks. Nabers should be able to add a strong stat line of his own to that list if he’s able to get cleared.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. (Wk. 6: @ GB): Harrison hasn’t been nearly as consistent of a producer as Malik Nabers, but his usage has remained rock solid over the last 4 weeks. Kyler Murray doesn’t force feed Harrison the ball to the same extent that Daniel Jones feeds Nabers, but Marv has still hit a 24% or higher target share and 33% or higher air yardage share in each of the last 4 games. This week he faces a Green Bay defense that has had a hell of a time containing perimeter receivers this season. Per ESPN’s Mike Clay, the Packers have allowed the 4^th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers. Green Bay has been missing Jaire Alexander for the past two weeks and could get him back to help, but I’d only view that as a slight downgrade for Marv. I’d treat him as a high-end WR2 if Jaire is out again, and a borderline WR2/3 if Jaire plays. Either way, he should be in your lineups. Keep an eye on the weather in this game though, as it currently looks like there will be some rain and wind at Lambeau on Sunday.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 6: vs. Pit.): Bowers got back on track last weekend with a big game against the Broncos, tallying 8-97-1 on 12 targets. He finished as the TE2 for the week and is now the TE2 for the season in PPG. He gets a less than stellar matchup against Pittsburgh this week – the Steelers have only allowed 1 TE all year to top 30 receiving yards – but we know the targets will be there for Bowers with Davante Adams out, no matter who is playing QB. He remains a top-5 TE option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Caleb Williams has looked like he’s figuring things out in recent weeks, and his progress couldn’t have come at a better time. If you thought Williams’ breakout game last week only happened because he was facing the hapless Panthers, wait until you get a load of his opponent this week. The Jaguars rank dead last in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the most QB points per game. They’ve given up nearly 300 passing yards and 2 TDs on average and have coughed up 23+ QB points in each of the last 3 games (vs. Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, and Joe Flacco). If Caleb’s improvements in recent weeks are for real, I think he’s got a great chance to finish as a top-12 QB this week in a great matchup.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): I want to clarify that I would lean toward starting Tracy this week IF Devin Singletary is out again. Singletary is logging limited practices this week and may well return, but if he sits, Tracy did enough with his opportunity last week to be the featured back again. Cincy has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game and ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA, so this is a favorable matchup for a back who delivered an RB18 finish in a similar matchup last weekend. I’d treat him as an RB2/3 option if Singletary is unable to suit up, and could see him getting a few extra touches beyond his normal backup workload if Singletary plays. He’s earned more work with his performance last week.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 6: @ NYJ): Davis was limited to just 2 snaps and 1 target in week 5, but he could be in line for a much bigger workload this week with James Cook battling a foot or toe injury. Cook didn’t practice on Thursday, putting his status for this game very much in doubt. If Cook misses this one, Davis will split the backfield work with Ty Johnson, and while Johnson has seen the better usage of the pair so far, I think Davis would get the bulk of the early down work. The Jets’ defense has allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, but they’ve been more vulnerable on the ground that you might think, ranking 24^th in run defense DVOA. Jordan Mason, Tony Pollard, and Javonte Williams have all had success running the ball against them, and I think Davis can as well. The Bills would be wise to lean on the ground game rather than testing New York’s stingy secondary. Davis is more of a flex play than locked-in starter (the split with Ty Johnson might not be as favorable for Davis as I expect), but he should be a solid option this week if Cook indeed can’t play.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): Allen posted his lowest snap share since the opener in week 5 against the Vikings, and a week later the Jets have fired their head coach and changed play callers. Coincidence? You be the judge. All jokes aside, Braelon still handled 7 opportunities last week (5 carries and 2 targets), and he gets a much more favorable matchup in this one against Buffalo. The Bills rank 7^th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve also allowed the most running back points per game because they get shredded by backs in the passing game. De’Von Achane, Justice Hill, and Dare Ogunbowale each piled up 6+ catches and 55+ receiving yards against Buffalo. Unfortunately for Braelon, Breece Hall is also an effective receiver out of the backfield and has seen about twice as many targets as Allen this year, but I’ve said repeatedly this year that Allen is doing enough with his opportunities to be a quality flex play in good matchups, and this is a good matchup. Obviously, there is some risk baked in with the change in play-caller, so I wouldn’t fault you if you don’t want to plug in Braelon, but I think double-digit PPR points are a strong possibility.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 6: @ Chi.): Thomas is quickly approaching ‘Guys you already know you should start’ territory, but I wanted to hold him back in ‘borderline’ for at least one more week to emphasize that this is a tough matchup against the Bears. The Bears rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-fewest WR points per game, and Thomas should have to tangle with exceptional corner Jaylon Johnson a fair amount. Johnson doesn’t shadow the opposing WR1, so Thomas won’t see him on every snap.  BTJ is having an exceptional rookie season this year and has been the picture of consistency. He’s finished as a top-30 WR in 4 of 5 games this season and as a top-10 WR in each of the last two. He’s also earned 8+ targets in three straight games. You should keep starting him this week, but temper expectations a little bit with the tougher matchup.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): If you scroll up just a couple players on this list to Caleb Williams, you’ll see that the Jacksonville Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the most WR points per game for the year. The entire secondary is a weak link, and the Bears would be wise to throw the ball often and exploit it. Odunze has been averaging close to 7 targets per game over the last 3 weeks and is in a route on close to 100% of the team passing dropbacks. If the Bears throw as much as I think they should, Odunze should see a nice workload. Hopefully they’ll get him the ball further downfield than last week, when he had just a 5.5-yard aDOT. The Jaguars have allowed a league-high 24 completions of 20+ yards this year. I know Odunze has been anything but a consistent fantasy performer, but this is a week where he should be able to find his way to a WR3/flex-worthy performance.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): The Patriots announced this week that Maye will get his first start on Sunday, and on paper it feels like he’s being thrown into the deep end. The Texans rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA, and Maye is going to be under fire a lot. No team has allowed QB pressure at a higher rate than the Patriots this season, and the Texans’ defense generates QB pressure at the 9^th-highest rate in the league. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are going to have their sights set on Maye in this one. It could be a trainwreck, but there are some reasons I have a little optimism. Maye has skill as a scrambler, and the Texans have allowed 3 different scrambling QBs to run for 40+ yards against them (Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams). They’ve also allowed 3 different QBs this year to throw for multiple TDs. It won’t always be pretty this week, but if you’re in a pinch for a QB2, I’d rather try Maye over the other rookie below.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Nix has proven to be a better fantasy asset than expected in recent weeks. He finished as the QB13 in week 3, and posted a season-best QB8 finish last weekend in a win over the Raiders, but he’s done his best work against soft defenses. He’s faced just two defenses all year that rank in the top-12 in pass defense DVOA (Sehawks & Jets), and in those matchups he totaled fewer than 200 passing yards and averaged less than 3 yards per passing attempt. This week he faces a Charger defense that ranks 3^rd in pass defense DVOA. Nix has been able to supplement his fantasy point totals by averaging 6 points per game worth of rushing production, but the Chargers have been especially stingy in that department. LA has faced 4 QBs who can scramble a bit – Gardner Minshew, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, and Bryce Young – and allowed a total of just 29 rushing yards on 15 carries to that group. This looks like a week where Nix will probably finish outside the top-24 QBs, even with 4 byes and 2 other rookies making their debuts this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 6: @ NO): Irving hit a season-high 43% snap share last week, but that’s still not quite the workload folks have been hoping for from him. Rachaad White continues to hold the bigger side of a 60/40 split with the rookie. The two backs have split the rushing work close to evenly – White has handled 20 carries in the last 2 weeks to 19 for Irving – but White owns the valuable passing downs, playing 39 long down & distance snaps this year compared to just 7 for Irving. It doesn’t help Bucky that he lost a fumble late last week when they could salt the game away and that White’s rushing efficiency has improved in the last two weeks. Of course, Irving could find his way to a useful fantasy day with his current workload, but I’m not overly confident he gets there against a New Orleans defense that allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 12^th in run defense DVOA.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Legette sits right on the borderline for me this week. I wouldn’t fault you for any choice you make with him this week. He left last week’s contest with an apparent shoulder injury, but he’s been practicing in full for this week’s tilt with the Falcons. By the eye test he’s looked like he should be the Panthers’ clear WR2 while Thielen’s on IR, but his targets have been inconsistent since Andy Dalton took over. Dalton peppered him with 9 targets in week 4, but has thrown his way just 3 times on 32 routes in the other 2 games they’ve played together, leaning more towards Jonathan Mingo as the 2^nd option in those games. Atlanta is a matchup where the weakest link in their secondary has been Dee Alford in the slot, but perimeter WRs like George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have all topped 75 receiving yards against them as well. I also trust Legette to capitalize on his opportunities more than I do Mingo. The Panthers are 6.5-point underdogs and should be throwing a bunch, making Legette a viable WR4 option. I just don’t feel quite confident in him enough to say you should start him.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 6: @ Den.): McConkey’s usage has been extremely encouraging in recent weeks. He logged route participation rates of 88% and 86% in the last two games and target shares of 30% and 27%. Those marks should be good enough to make most receivers an every week starting fantasy WR, but that’s not the case in the Chargers’ offense. The Chargers want to run, run, and run some more, and I think the game script and defensive matchup will let them do that this week. LA is favored by 3 points in a game with the lowest Vegas point total of the week. Denver ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, so compiling passing stats will be tougher than normal even if there is volume. McConkey in the slot will likely avoid Patrick Surtain, but the weak link the Denver secondary has been Riley Moss, not slot corner Ja’Quan McMillian. McMillian has allowed less than 0.2 PPR points per route run against him. For reference, Ladd McConkey is averaging just 21 routes run per game. I’d view him as a dicey WR4 unless you think the Chargers are going to be chasing multiple scores here.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 6: @ NYJ): Coleman has been on the field a healthy amount in the last two weeks, logging route participation rates just over 70% in each game, but his target share didn’t see a significant bump last week with Khalil Shakir sidelined. It remains to be seen if Shakir will return this week, but Keon still hasn’t been targeted more than 5 times in a game this season. He does boast a 15-yard aDOT for the year, so it doesn’t take more than a handful of targets for him to have a shot at a solid game, but I’m not sure I’d bet on it this week against the Jets’ stingy outside corners (Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed). The Jets rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. I’d look elsewhere for a bye week fill-in WR this week.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): Polk’s usage continued its upward trajectory last week, as he was in a route on a whopping 97% of the team’s passing dropbacks against Miami, and was a heel away from catching the game-winning TD. He’s now earned 13 targets in the last two games and is getting close to being a weekly WR4 option. This week is going to be an unpredictable one for the Pats’ pass-catchers as Drake Maye makes his first start and Kendrick Bourne gets himself re-integrated into the offense (Bourne ran just 10 routes in his return from the PUP list last week). The Texans have been vulnerable on deep throws this year, and Maye gives New England a better chance to exploit that than Jacoby Brissett did – the team with Brissett under center has a league-low 6 completions of 20+ yards for the year – but the Patriots have an abysmal implied Vegas point total this week of just 15.25 points. The best option here is probably to just stay away from this offense in fantasy, but I do think there is some sneaky upside. At the very least, Polk is worth a stash in case Maye proves to be the real deal.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Johnson had his best game as a pro last weekend, turning an 80% route participation rate into 5-48 on 5 targets with Malik Nabers sidelined. He’s had a big role in the games where the Giants aren’t force feeding Nabers. He was targeted 4 times in week 1, when Nabers logged just a 19% target share, and then 5 times in week 5 with Nabers out. He totaled just 4 targets in the 3 weeks in between. His outlook for this week really sort of depends on Nabers. If Nabers plays, Johnson won’t be involved enough for you to start him. If Nabers sits, Theo is a serviceable fill-in TE if you have a bye or injury. Don’t be tricked by the fact that the Bengals have allowed the 4^th-most TE points per game. Prior to last week’s contest with Baltimore, starting tight ends were averaging just 3.2 points per game against Cincy. Charlie Kolar, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined for 36.4 points last weekend in what was probably an outlier game. Don’t let that one game sway you into getting overconfident about Theo’s matchup.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): It’s possible Brooks gets activated this week, but he’ll have a slow ramp up to anything resembling a full workload, and Chuba Hubbard is just playing too well to be supplanted right now. Chuba has logged 3 consecutive top-7 PPR finishes.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Estime is eligible to come off IR this week, but he’ll do so as the Broncos’ RB3 now that Javonte Williams is picking up steam. The Broncos also face a Charger defense that allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game this season. Any sort of notable performance out of Estime would be unexpected.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 6: @ GB): Benson played zero snaps last week in the Cardinals come-from-behind win over the 49ers. I mentioned prior to the game that a trailing game script would likely favor Emari Demercado for the RB2 work over Benson, and things played out as expected there. The Cardinals are 5-point underdogs to the Packers this week, so we’ll see more of the same if things go as Vegas expects them to.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 6: @ Bal.): McCaffrey saw his route participation rate climb back up to 64% this past weekend with Noah Brown sidelined, but he finished the game with just 3 targets and 9 air yards. His role certainly grows when Brown is out, but he doesn’t get enough target volume to survive solely on short routes, and that’s all he’s getting. The Ravens have struggled against WRs, allowing the 3^rd-most points per game to the position, but most of the damage is being done by opposing WR1s – Rashee Rice, Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the only WRs who have gone for 80+ yards against the Ravens, and they’ve scored 5 of the 8 WR TDs Baltimore has allowed this year. Ancillary pieces like McCaffrey just haven’t had much success against them.

WRs Devaughn Vele & Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Devaughn Vele’s absence from the lineup continues to drag on due to a rib injury. There’s no telling when he’ll return, but he hasn’t played since week 1 and hasn’t been placed on IR. At this point I think it would be a mistake to expect him to be inserted back into a starting role upon his return. Franklin, meanwhile, has served as the team’s WR4 and is yet to top a 35% route participation rate. There’s something to like with Franklin if he can get himself into more playing time – he obviously has a connection with his college QB Bo Nix and has been targeted on 11 of his 28 routes in the last 3 weeks (39.3% target rate). If he could put up numbers like that in a single game rather than over 3 games, we’d be cooking with gas. Franklin hasn’t been putting up big fantasy point totals, so you might assume those targets are all short, but his aDOT is more than 15 yards downfield. He and Nix just haven’t been connecting on the downfield targets. There’s real upside for Franklin if and when he works himself into a bigger role. Josh Reynolds is battling an injury this week, so Franklin’s outlook changes a bit if Reynolds is unable to suit up. I’d see him as a dart throw WR5 in PPR leagues if Reynolds sits.

WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Tipton was in a route on 47% of the Saints’ passing dropbacks in week 5, and he earned a season-high 4 targets, including a couple of deep shots, but he finished with just 1 catch for 2 yards. His role is already low in the target pecking order here, and the switch to Spencer Rattler at QB this week makes a breakout game even less likely.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 6: @ NYG): In the last 3 ballgames, Burton has run 3 routes, then 2 routes, then 1 route, and logged zero targets in each game. There’s nothing to see here.

WR Johnny Wilson, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Wilson was heavily involved in the Eagles’ offense in week 4 ahead of their bye, logging a 49% route participation rate against the Bucs. That usage came with both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith sidelined by injury, and both are expected to return this week, relegating Wilson back to the bench.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 6: @ LV): Wilson was finally off the Steelers’ injury report in week 5, but he still found himself on the inactive list as a healthy scratch on Sunday night. It looks like he has a longer road than expected to work his way into the WR rotation in Pittsburgh.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): For the second straight week, Ja’Tavion is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season. For the second straight week, that season-best performance was not good enough for a top-30 PPR finish. Sanders was forced into action due to a nasty concussion suffered by Tommy Tremble, one that I expect will keep him sidelined again this week, but Sanders turned 31 routes into just 3 catches for 13 yards on 5 targets. He’ll serve as the starting tight end this week against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 12^th-most TE points per game, but that ranking is deceptive and Ja’Tavion’s production has been poor even when he’s had opportunities. The Falcons’ points allowed to tight ends were inflated by two rushing scores by Taysom Hill earlier this season. No other TE to face Atlanta has reached 6 fantasy points against them (half-PPR), and they’ve faced Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, Cade Otton, and Pat Freiermuth this season. It wouldn’t shock me if Sanders found his way to a top-20 finish this week with his full-time role, but a top-12 finish would.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 6: @ Bal.): Sinnott ran more routes that John Bates for the first time all season in week 5, but that still amounted to just a 19% route participation rate, and he still hasn’t seen his first target of the season.

Rookies on byes in week 6: RB Blake Corum, LAR, RB Jaylen Wright, MIA, RB Carson Steele, KC, WR Xavier Worthy, KC, WR Jordan Whittington, LAR

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Derek Carr left Monday night’s game against the Chiefs with an oblique strain that should sideline him for a couple weeks, and while it was Jake Haener who replaced him in that game, the Saints have announced that it’ll be Spencer Rattler who will make the start in week 6. Rattler is a kid who was an elite recruit in college with a ton of arm talent, but he never seemed to put all of the pieces together across 4 seasons as a college starter. He gets a favorable situation for his first pro opportunity. He’ll practice as the starter all week, he has strong weapons at his disposal in Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and the Bucs are a favorable matchup for QBs. Tampa has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game this season. They’ve been cooked on the ground by Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Jalen Hurts, and they coughed up 300 passing yards to Jared Goff and 500 to Kirk Cousins. Rattler isn’t much of a scrambler, so he’ll do the bulk of his work throwing the ball. It’s worth noting that outside of Kirk Cousins’ 4-TD bonanza last week, the Bucs have allowed just 1 passing TD the rest of the season. Rattler is a very low floor option, but there’s a chance he turns in a serviceable QB2 performance if you’re in a pinch.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 6: @ Den.): Gus Edwards is battling through an ankle injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday. If he were to miss this game, Vidal will almost certainly be active for the first time this year. Hassan Haskins has served as the RB3 in this offense so far, but that’s likely because of his prowess as a special teamer and Jim Harbaugh’s comfort level with him from their time together at Michigan. I’d expect Vidal to leap-frog him into the RB2 role this week if Gus sits. That still wouldn’t make Vidal start-able this week. He’d likely be in line for something like a 20-25% snap share against a Denver defense that ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA. But if he impresses on limited touches, he has a chance to earn a bigger role going forward. Gus Edwards is a very assignment-sound, solid backup running back, but he doesn’t have the juice that Vidal does. Vidal’s performance and usage should be monitored this week, and he may be worth a stash in dynasty leagues if you’re lucky enough that he’s still available (he’s available in 21% of dynasty leagues on Sleeper).

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 6: BYE): Wright is on a bye this week, but his performance in week 5 is one the Dolphins are likely to take note of. The rookie showed more juice than Raheem Mostert after the starter De’Von Achane left with a concussion, rushing for 83 yards on 13 carries, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move ahead of Mostert on the depth chart in the near future. Achane should be able to return after the team bye this week, but if he can’t, Wright could serve as the RB1 against a burnable Colts’ defense in week 7. Even if Achane returns, Wright will carry a ton of upside in the event of another Achane or Mostert injury later in the season, especially with Tua looking like he’ll return from IR as soon as he’s eligible in week 8.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 6: @ Ten.): It was revealed this week that Michael Pittman Jr. suffered a hamstring injury severe enough that the team is considering putting him on IR, and as of Thursday Josh Downs isn’t practicing due to a toe injury. Adonai Mitchell may suddenly find himself as the Colts’ WR2 this week in Nashville. I’m sure Ashton Dulin will also play a bigger role if Downs is out, but Mitchell would also see the most playing time he has all year. I do wish this had happened with a better matchup on deck though, and for Mitchell’s sake, I kind of wish Joe Flacco were still starting. Flacco targeted Mitchell on 7 of his 12 routes last week. This week’s opponent, the Titans, have allowed the fewest WR points per game and rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also don’t get hurt deep – they’ve allowed the fewest completions of 20+ yards this year and have allowed zero completions of 40+. The Colts offense has thrived on deep shots to Alec Pierce, and they’ve looked for Mitchell deep often as well, but those opportunities might not be there against the Titans. The matchup puts a damper on the outlook here, but if Downs is out, anything short of 5-6 targets would be surprising given how thin the WR room is this week. Mitchell is still a boom-or-bust WR4/5 option, but there should be a floor to keep a bust week from killing you.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): This may prove to be a moot point, but Coker is worth consideration until we know for sure that Legette is going to play. Xavier is practicing in full to start the week, so he likely avoided the AC joint injury the team was afraid of last weekend, but it’s worth monitoring. Coker impressed when forced into an expanded role, pulling in 4 passes for 68 yards primarily from the slot. If Legette is healthy, Coker may have still done enough to steal some slot work from Jonathan Mingo going forward, just not enough that he’s a worthwhile start this week. If Legette sits, however, Coker is worth consideration as a flex/WR4 in deeper leagues. Dee Alford in the slot has been the weakest link in the Falcons’ secondary thus far.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 6: @ NO): McMillan continues to battle through a hamstring injury, but he logged a limited practice to start the week and seems to have a real chance of returning Sunday. In the 3 games he suited up for, he tallied route participation routes of 80% or higher in all of them, and his average target was over 15 yards downfield. Keep tabs on the injury reports here, but if McMillan returns to something close to his normal role, he’s got some extra upside against a New Orleans defense that has given up the 5^th-most completions of 20+ yards and the 2^nd-most completions of 40+ yards this season (T-5^th and T-2^nd to be precise). The floor here is zero points, but there’s a ceiling that may prove to be worth chasing.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 6: @ NYG): Mike Gesicki popped up on the Bengals’ injury report and didn’t practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury (he returned to a limited practice Thursday), opening the door for All to potentially serve as the starting TE this week against the Giants. Week 5 was a down week for the rookie – he matched his highest route participation rate of the season (37%) but earned his lowest target rate (13%) since week 1. All had been putting up 6-8 weekly PPR points because he was being targeted on more than a third of his routes, but he tallied just 3 points last Sunday as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins dominated the receiving work. If Gesicki misses this week, I think we could see All’s route participation climb into the mid-50s (that’s where Gesicki has been), and he should get back into that 6-8 point range even if the target rate doesn’t rebound. If the target rate bounces back, a top-12 finish is possible.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Is it just me, or did the first month of the season fly by? It was a month full of frustrating injuries, frustratingly low passing volume, and frustrating tight end performances, but there was plenty of good in there too. Several rookies have wasted no time in showing they belong in the NFL, while others are still biding their time and waiting for an opportunity. I think we’ll see a few more of them start to emerge over the next quarter of the season.

Hopefully at this point you find your team sitting in a good place and are not considering doing anything too drastic to change your fortunes. The best course of action for a struggling team is usually to make minor tweaks rather than blow the whole thing up, but you certainly shouldn’t be complacent if you’re sitting at 0-4. We enter the first bye week this weekend, you may be looking at using some players you typically wouldn’t, and I’m guessing for a lot of you, some of those players are rookies. I’m here as always to help you sift through which rookies can propel you to victory.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 5…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Daniels is the QB1 for the season by total points. He’s finished as the QB5 or better in 3 out of 4 weeks, and the Commanders’ offense has only had two drives in the last 3 weeks that didn’t end in points. Everything is clicking for Daniels and Washington, and while this could be the toughest secondary he’s faced yet this season, you can’t sit him. There is a little bit of risk of a down game against a Cleveland defense that allows the 7^th-fewest QB points per game, but I have a feeling Daniels will do enough with his legs to offset any drop off in passing production. The Browns play man-to-man coverage at the 3^rd-highest rate in the league this year, and man-to-man defense can leave open huge rushing lanes if the DBs turn their back to the QB. Cleveland will likely look to use a spy to keep Daniels contained, but I expect at least a couple opportunities to break a long run. Jayden has to be treated as a clear top-10 QB option this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Nabers left last week’s game with a concussion, but not before he had tallied 12 catches for 115 yards. There’s a little concern here since Nabers hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol yet, but as long as he gets cleared in time to play, there shouldn’t be any drop-off in his performance level. Nabers has logged 3 straight top-6 PPR finishes and has seen massive target shares in all 3 games (at least a 38% share and 12+ targets in each). The Seahawks are a tough matchup – they rank 9^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but that shouldn’t deter you from starting him. Expecting a 4^th straight top-6 finish may be too lofty, but he’s a locked & loaded WR1 if he’s able to get cleared in time.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Harrison’s fantasy production hasn’t been quite as scintillating as fellow rookie standout Malik Nabers, but after a disaster debut, he’s now logged 3 straight games with 15+ PPR points and at least a 25% target share. The 49ers are a formidable defense, ranking 5^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed 3 different receivers to top 80 yards against them in 4 games. Harrison should have a good chance to be #4. He’s a quality WR2 option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Thomas has been about as consistent as a rookie can be through 4 weeks. His route participation rate has been between 77% and 83% in all 4 weeks, his target share has been 20% or higher in 3 of them, and his air yardage share has been 19% or higher in all 4. While that consistency has been there since week 1, he’s really emerged as a go-to receiver in this offense over the last two weeks, earning 9 targets in each of the last 2 games. His usage and production have made him a weekly fantasy WR3, but his recent uptick in targets and a plus matchup this week give him even more upside in week 5. The Colts have allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game and have allowed a 100-yard receiver in 3 of their 4 games this season. In the only game where they avoided allowing a 100-yard receiving performance, Malik Willis was the opposing starting QB. Thomas should be treated as a WR2 this week and is the likeliest Jaguar pass catcher to top the century mark.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Worthy displayed the feast or famine nature of starting him in fantasy football yet again last week. He’s yet to top 4 targets in any game this year, but he’s also posted a top-10 and a top-20 finish in the weeks where he and Patrick Mahomes have managed to connect on a deep ball (he caught a 54-yard TD in week 4). The problem is that he’s finished outside the top-65 WRs in the weeks where they haven’t connected deep. The upside is still enticing, and while this isn’t a great defensive matchup to attack with Worthy (New Orleans ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws), I have a feeling we’re going to see Worthy’s floor get elevated with Rashee Rice on IR. The conventional wisdom is that Travis Kelce is going to pick up a lot of that additional work in the short & intermediate part of the field, but I think Worthy benefits as well. He’s still mostly a boom-or-bust player with a low floor, but I think the ceiling makes him a viable WR3 this week, even in a tougher matchup.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Whittington’s role in this Rams’ offense drastically changed from week 3 to week 4, and I think it’s worth us taking notice. I had a lot of hope for Whittington getting a chance in this offense when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua went down, but in week 3 without Kupp, he played behind all of Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson and was limited to just a 34% route participation rate. Something we should’ve paid more attention to is the fact that he was targeted on 30% of his routes in that game. The ball found it’s way to him when he was on the field, and when his route rate jumped up to 97% in week 4, the target rate stayed high. Whittington was targeted 8 times last week and finished with a solid 6-62 line. I think the Rams have found something here, and I expect him to play close to a full-time role again this week against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. The Rams are 3.5-point underdogs, so game script should keep them throwing enough for Whittington to find his way to a WR3 finish. He should be a very solid, but unspectacular fill-in option if you’re looking for help covering an injury or bye this week.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 5: @ Den.): Realistically, Bowers still belongs in ‘Rookies You Know You Should Start’ section, but you might take issue with me calling him an auto-start after posting TE15 and TE22 finishes in the last two weeks. You might not realize that he logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend (81%) with Michael Mayer out for personal reasons. The targets weren’t exactly there, but Mayer looks to be out again this week and any tight end running a route on 80%+ of a team’s dropbacks should be considered a slam dunk top-10 option for the week. The Broncos aren’t an imposing matchup here. They’ve allowed the 16^th-most TE points per game on the year. You should continue to feel comfortable starting Bowers in all formats unless your format doesn’t require you to start a tight end.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Wiliams, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Caleb Williams has the same outlook this week that he does most weeks…he’s a weekly QB2 that has some fringe QB1 appeal in really good matchups (especially during bye weeks for other QBs). His matchup this week is a pretty good one – the Panthers allow the 10^th-most QB points per game and rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not quite enticing enough for Caleb to be a top-12 option in my opinion. The Bears are a 4-point favorite, so passing volume could be on the lower end, and I still don’t quite trust Shane Waldron yet. Every opponent the Panthers have faced this year has thrown for multiple TDs against them. If Caleb does that, he should push near a top-12 finish, but I’d view him as a mid-to-high end QB2 this week.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Unlike Caleb Williams, Nix is a borderline option for 2-QB and superflex formats, not 1-QB leagues. Nix posted a performance in week 4 that few QBs have ever matched. He became just the 8^th quarterback to ever throw for 60 or fewer passing yards on 25 or more attempts in a game, and the first QB to do it since Tim Hasselbeck in 2003. Nix is the only QB to ever do that and win the game. It was a level of inefficiency that we just don’t see in the NFL anymore. In fact, at halftime, Nix had 8 completions for negative-7 yards. Things can only get better this week against the Raiders, who rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA, but the Broncos implied Vegas point total is under 20, and only 1 QB this season has found the end zone more than once against the Raiders. Nix’s rushing upside and favorable matchup mean you could plug him in as a QB2 if you had to, but I’d prefer to have a better option available.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 5: @ Atl.): Irving has been a hot waiver wire name now for a couple weeks thanks to a handful of impressive breakaway runs and some coach speak from Todd Bowles ahead of week 4 saying Irving has earned more work. The reality is that this backfield hasn’t shifted as drastically as you might think. Irving was out snapped by Rachaad White 44 to 30 in week 4. The gap between the duo has been narrowing, but White is still the RB1 in this backfield for now. The calls to for Irving to get more playing time were largely due to White’s abysmal rushing efficiency, but in week 4 White matched Irving with 10 carries for 49 yards on the ground. White has also averaged 8.3 yards per target while Irving has averaged just 4.3. Rachaad is going to have to continue to run well to stave off calls for him to lose more work to the rookie, but his receiving work is safe, and he’ll continue to handle about half of the rushing attempts for now as well. That means Irving is going to have to continue generating breakaway runs or find the end zone to be useful in your fantasy lineup, and the Falcons have allowed just 2 rushes of 20+ yards thus far. Atlanta allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. It’s not a great matchup to attack with a running back that’s getting less than 50% of the workload. I’d view Irving as a fringe RB3 this week at best.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 5: @ Min.): Allen has now played 20+ snaps and received 9 or more opportunities in each of the last 3 games, but that usage level continues to make him a clear second fiddle to Breece Hall. He’s already shown us this season that he’s a flex-worthy option in good matchups, and he’s going to prove valuable at some crucial moment during bye weeks, but the matchup this week is rough. The Vikings rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. It’s just not the right spot to count on Allen making an impact in a part-time role.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Steele may have fumbled away his opportunity to lead the Chiefs’ backfield during Isiah Pacheco’s absence last week. He fumbled his first carry of the game, played one more series, and then was barely seen the rest of the day as Kareem Hunt served as the lead back. Steele finished the game with just a 19% snap share and saw just one opportunity – a target he didn’t catch- after the first 2 drives. Andy Reid said after the game that “he’s got to hang on to the football,” but insisted that Steele is not a fumbler and that they still have confidence in him. I think they’ve at least lost enough confidence in him that he no longer has a stranglehold on the early down work, and that makes him tough to start against a Saints’ defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. He’s got to re-earn that lead back role before you can plug him into lineups.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Legette took a big step forward in week 4 with Adam Thielen sidelined, logging an 88% route participation rate and tallying 6-66-1 on 10 targets, good for a WR13 finish for the week. It’s an extremely positive development for the rookie’s outlook for the next month or so while Thielen is out, but I’m going to be a little bit of a wet blanket here for at least week 5. Legette still ran fewer routes than both Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo last weekend, and his breakout game came against a Cincy defense that has been struggling to contain wide receivers in the last 3 weeks – they’ve allowed 20+ PPR points to 4 different receivers in the last 3 games. The Bears, on the other hand, have allowed just one receiver all year to reach that mark (Nico Collins). Chicago ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. I also think Legette is likely to draw the toughest CB assignment more often than Mingo or Diontae. The Bears have a clear #1 CB in Jaylon Johnson, who has been significantly better than CB2 Tyrique Stevenson and nickel Kyler Gordon. The Bears are predictable about where these corners line up. Mingo in the slot will draw mostly Gordon, and I expect Carolina to do what they can to keep WR1 Diontae Johnson away from Jaylon Johnson, meaning Legette is going to have to tangle with him often. It doesn’t mean Xavier can’t be useful this week. There’s certainly upside and he’s carved out a role, but I see him as more of a WR4 this week than WR3.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Coleman saw his route participation rate in week 4 climb back up to 73% after being all the way down at 31% the week prior, but that additional usage led to just 3 catches on 4 targets, with most of that production coming late in the game when the Bills were in a deep hole on the scoreboard. Houston has been a favorable matchup for fantasy WRs, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, but Coleman just hasn’t been involved enough in the last couple weeks when the games are still in doubt to trust him here. I’d keep him parked on the bench until we see him start to get more early usage in tight games.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): We got one glorious week of the Bears running their passing game through Odunze in week 3, but in week 4 he was back to running wind sprints. He’s now posted a target share below 15% in 3 out of 4 games this season despite being a full-time player, and he’s finished as the PPR WR50 or worse in all 3 of those games. There are going to be spike weeks when the Bears have to throw the ball a lot, but I worry this week’s contest could look a bit more like last week’s. Caleb Williams dropped back 103 times in weeks 2 & 3 combined as the Bears played from behind against the Texans and Colts. He dropped back just 26 times against the Rams while playing from the lead with the run game finally working. The Bears are 4-point favorites this week against Carolina, so the passing volume could again be a problem for Odunze. A 15% target share and 30 or fewer pass attempts means an uphill climb to a fantasy relevant finish for Rome.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 5: @ NE): Wright played his highest snap share of the season in week 4. He was on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps and was in a route on 54% of the team’s passing dropbacks, turning that usage into 9 rushing attempts and 1 target. The problem is that this offense has been a mess without Tua under center, those opportunities didn’t lead to much production, and Raheem Mostert seems likely to return from injury this week. The Patriots are just a middling run defense, but the Dolphins have a paltry implied total of 17.25 for the week, and Wright will likely serve as the RB3 if Mostert is able to play.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Davis’ box score performances make it look like he’s had good involvement in the Bills offense, totaling 23 rush attempts in the last 3 games, but all 3 contests were blowouts, and Davis is getting the bulk of his work in garbage time. He’s only reached a 20% snap share once in 4 games, and this week’s contest with the Texans should be close enough that Davis doesn’t get much garbage time work. The Bills are favored by just one point. Davis is basically a TD dart throw with a low chance of hitting the mark.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Tracy has averaged 15 snaps and 4 opportunities per game, which just isn’t enough work behind Devin Singletary to be worthwhile in fantasy lineups.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Benson handled 30% of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts last week, but much of that work was at the tail end of a blowout loss to the Commanders. He’s still splitting backup work with Emari Demercado, spelling James Conner in early down situations while Demercado spells him on passing downs. This week figures to have more of the latter with the Cardinals a 7.5-point underdog to the 49ers.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Corum hasn’t played a single offensive snap in 3 of the 4 games the Rams have played this season.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Polk saw his best usage of the season in week 4, running a route on 87% of the team dropbacks and earning 7 targets (24% target share). He even made a highlight real catch on a sideline throw dropped between two 49er defenders. The usage was more promising than the 3-30 final stat line that Polk finished with, and I’d be more bullish on Polk going forward if I felt like we could count on that usage continuing, but I don’t think we can. The Patriots’ week-to-week usage of their pass catchers has been very inconsistent, especially when it comes to targets. Each of their top 3 receivers have had at least one week with a 60% route participation rate and 5% or lower target share. They’ve also each posted a week with a 24% or higher target share. It’s impossible to trust any New England wide receiver when the team is averaging less than 150 passing yards per game, and you have no clue which receiver is going to see the target volume from week-to-week.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): McCaffrey was limited to a 47% route participation rate and just 1 target in week 4 as Noah Brown continued his ascent up the WR depth chart. Brown has seen his own route participation rate climb from 32% in week 2 to 58% in week 3 and 72% in week 4. He’s functioning as the clear WR2 behind Terry McLaurin, and McCaffrey is left splitting WR3 work with Olamide Zaccheaus. The Commanders are too run-heavy of an offense to take a chance on a player who is playing half of the WR3 role.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 5: @ Jax.): Mitchell has run just 11 routes and tallied zero catches in the two games since Josh Downs returned to the lineup. There’s a sliver of hope this week that he hits a splash play and winds up fantasy viable – the Colts have still tried to get him the ball deep, throwing 4 targets in his direction for 105 total air yards in the last 2 weeks, and the Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. If there isn’t a deep ball connection though, there’s a very real chance Adonai scores zero points yet again.

WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): The Raiders rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA this year, so there’s an opportunity for success against them in the passing game, but Franklin and Vele aren’t involved enough to be relied on. Vele had a promising week 1 but has been sidelined with a rib injury since. Now that he’s missed 3 weeks and Lil’Jordan Humphrey has established himself in the slot, Vele will likely have to earn back those reps slowly upon his return. Franklin has seen a small bump in playing time in recent weeks, logging route participation rates of 30 and 35% in the last two games, and Bo Nix targeted him on more than 40% of his routes in each game, but that turned into just 4 catches for 9 yards on 9 targets. His role could increase in future weeks, but neither player here is likely to exceed a handful of PPR points even if they have a good week.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Is this the week Wilson is finally activated? It probably won’t matter in fantasy. He’s missed enough time that there will be an inevitable ramp up before he’s playing a meaningful number of snaps. Rumors that the Steelers might trade for a WR diminish his value even further.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): In two games with Tee Higgins back from injury, Burton has run just 5 routes total and earned zero targets.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Johnson continues to operate as the Giants lead tight end, but the volume just hasn’t been there. He’s averaged nearly a 70% route participation rate, but he’s only been targeted on 5% of the routes he’s run. We saw some promise in week one when he was targeted 4 times, but he’s earned just 4 total targets in the last 3 weeks as Malik Nabers has ascended.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I mention Barner because he got into the end zone on Monday Night Football against Detroit and posted a top-10 finish for the week as a result. There’s not a good reason to chase the touchdown here. Barner has made the most of his opportunities – he’s caught all 5 of his targets this season for 40 yards and a score, but he’s averaged just a 25% route participation rate and is no higher than 7^th in the offensive pecking order on this team. Starting TE Noah Fant has also made the most of his opportunities, pulling in 8 of 8 targets for 86 yards on the year, making it harder for Barner to make real headway.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Sanders posted his best fantasy day of the season last weekend. He only put up 2 catches for 16 yards, but it was still his best fantasy day of the season. Unfortunately, he also logged his lowest route participation rate of the season as well at just 21%. At this point, Sanders is merely the backup to Tommy Tremble. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this year.

TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): As I expected last week, it was Elijah Higgins, and not Reiman who served as the Cardinals TE1 with Trey McBride sidelined by a concussion. Reiman was in a route on just 14% of the team dropbacks and wasn’t targeted. McBride is fully expected to be back this week.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Sinnott has been on the field a little bit more in the last two weeks, reaching a 20% route participation rate in each game, but his next target this season will be his first. He’s still splitting backup TE work with John Bates.

Rookies on Byes in week 5: WR Ladd McConkey, LAC

IR Rookies (practice window not open yet): RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR, RB Audric Estime, DEN, WR Ricky Pearsall, SF

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Jerod Mayo keeps insisting that the Patriots aren’t all that close to making a change at QB, but beat writers have suggested there are rumblings from within the building that the change could be getting close. If Maye is still on the waiver wire in 2-QB redraft leagues, the best time to stash him would be now, before the change happens. If the Patriots fall to the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins this week and drop to 1-4, it could be Jacoby Brissett’s final start. Maye provides much more upside as a passer than Jacoby, and some rushing upside to boot. The schedule after this week does include some daunting defensive matchups, but there are soft spots against the Jaguars, Rams and Colts that could be great opportunities to start Maye in fantasy.

WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 5: @ KC): Tipton isn’t a player who should be put into lineups this week, but he’s worth mentioning for those of you in deep dynasty leagues because you may not realize the UDFA out of Yale has quietly emerged as the WR3 in New Orleans. It’s not a role that’s bringing a lot of target volume yet (just 4 targets in the last 2 weeks), but he’s logged route participation rates of 48% and 56% in the last 2 games. He’s worth stashing in the deepest dynasty leagues for the inevitable future hamstring injury that will hit Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed. He doesn’t have the same upside as that pair, but there will be weeks where he sees more targets than he has so far.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): All continues to play second fiddle to Mike Gesicki on the Bengals’ depth chart – he’s logged less than a 40% route participation rate in every game he’s played in - but the ball comes his way when he’s on the field. All has quietly logged 3 straight top-20 PPR finishes and has been targeted on more than a third of his routes in that span. His limited playing time makes him more of a floor play than a ceiling one, but he’s already worth weekly starting consideration in 2-TE formats, and he could be a reasonable bye week fill in for deeper leagues as he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most TE points per game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.