Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Is it just me, or did the first month of the season fly by? It was a month full of frustrating injuries, frustratingly low passing volume, and frustrating tight end performances, but there was plenty of good in there too. Several rookies have wasted no time in showing they belong in the NFL, while others are still biding their time and waiting for an opportunity. I think we’ll see a few more of them start to emerge over the next quarter of the season.
Hopefully at this point you find your team sitting in a good place and are not considering doing anything too drastic to change your fortunes. The best course of action for a struggling team is usually to make minor tweaks rather than blow the whole thing up, but you certainly shouldn’t be complacent if you’re sitting at 0-4. We enter the first bye week this weekend, you may be looking at using some players you typically wouldn’t, and I’m guessing for a lot of you, some of those players are rookies. I’m here as always to help you sift through which rookies can propel you to victory.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 5…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Daniels is the QB1 for the season by total points. He’s finished as the QB5 or better in 3 out of 4 weeks, and the Commanders’ offense has only had two drives in the last 3 weeks that didn’t end in points. Everything is clicking for Daniels and Washington, and while this could be the toughest secondary he’s faced yet this season, you can’t sit him. There is a little bit of risk of a down game against a Cleveland defense that allows the 7th-fewest QB points per game, but I have a feeling Daniels will do enough with his legs to offset any drop off in passing production. The Browns play man-to-man coverage at the 3rd-highest rate in the league this year, and man-to-man defense can leave open huge rushing lanes if the DBs turn their back to the QB. Cleveland will likely look to use a spy to keep Daniels contained, but I expect at least a couple opportunities to break a long run. Jayden has to be treated as a clear top-10 QB option this week.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Nabers left last week’s game with a concussion, but not before he had tallied 12 catches for 115 yards. There’s a little concern here since Nabers hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol yet, but as long as he gets cleared in time to play, there shouldn’t be any drop-off in his performance level. Nabers has logged 3 straight top-6 PPR finishes and has seen massive target shares in all 3 games (at least a 38% share and 12+ targets in each). The Seahawks are a tough matchup – they rank 9th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th-fewest WR points per game, but that shouldn’t deter you from starting him. Expecting a 4th straight top-6 finish may be too lofty, but he’s a locked & loaded WR1 if he’s able to get cleared in time.
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Harrison’s fantasy production hasn’t been quite as scintillating as fellow rookie standout Malik Nabers, but after a disaster debut, he’s now logged 3 straight games with 15+ PPR points and at least a 25% target share. The 49ers are a formidable defense, ranking 5th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed 3 different receivers to top 80 yards against them in 4 games. Harrison should have a good chance to be #4. He’s a quality WR2 option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Thomas has been about as consistent as a rookie can be through 4 weeks. His route participation rate has been between 77% and 83% in all 4 weeks, his target share has been 20% or higher in 3 of them, and his air yardage share has been 19% or higher in all 4. While that consistency has been there since week 1, he’s really emerged as a go-to receiver in this offense over the last two weeks, earning 9 targets in each of the last 2 games. His usage and production have made him a weekly fantasy WR3, but his recent uptick in targets and a plus matchup this week give him even more upside in week 5. The Colts have allowed the 10th-most WR points per game and have allowed a 100-yard receiver in 3 of their 4 games this season. In the only game where they avoided allowing a 100-yard receiving performance, Malik Willis was the opposing starting QB. Thomas should be treated as a WR2 this week and is the likeliest Jaguar pass catcher to top the century mark.
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Worthy displayed the feast or famine nature of starting him in fantasy football yet again last week. He’s yet to top 4 targets in any game this year, but he’s also posted a top-10 and a top-20 finish in the weeks where he and Patrick Mahomes have managed to connect on a deep ball (he caught a 54-yard TD in week 4). The problem is that he’s finished outside the top-65 WRs in the weeks where they haven’t connected deep. The upside is still enticing, and while this isn’t a great defensive matchup to attack with Worthy (New Orleans ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws), I have a feeling we’re going to see Worthy’s floor get elevated with Rashee Rice on IR. The conventional wisdom is that Travis Kelce is going to pick up a lot of that additional work in the short & intermediate part of the field, but I think Worthy benefits as well. He’s still mostly a boom-or-bust player with a low floor, but I think the ceiling makes him a viable WR3 this week, even in a tougher matchup.
WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Whittington’s role in this Rams’ offense drastically changed from week 3 to week 4, and I think it’s worth us taking notice. I had a lot of hope for Whittington getting a chance in this offense when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua went down, but in week 3 without Kupp, he played behind all of Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson and was limited to just a 34% route participation rate. Something we should’ve paid more attention to is the fact that he was targeted on 30% of his routes in that game. The ball found it’s way to him when he was on the field, and when his route rate jumped up to 97% in week 4, the target rate stayed high. Whittington was targeted 8 times last week and finished with a solid 6-62 line. I think the Rams have found something here, and I expect him to play close to a full-time role again this week against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 7th-most WR points per game and ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA. The Rams are 3.5-point underdogs, so game script should keep them throwing enough for Whittington to find his way to a WR3 finish. He should be a very solid, but unspectacular fill-in option if you’re looking for help covering an injury or bye this week.
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 5: @ Den.): Realistically, Bowers still belongs in ‘Rookies You Know You Should Start’ section, but you might take issue with me calling him an auto-start after posting TE15 and TE22 finishes in the last two weeks. You might not realize that he logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend (81%) with Michael Mayer out for personal reasons. The targets weren’t exactly there, but Mayer looks to be out again this week and any tight end running a route on 80%+ of a team’s dropbacks should be considered a slam dunk top-10 option for the week. The Broncos aren’t an imposing matchup here. They’ve allowed the 16th-most TE points per game on the year. You should continue to feel comfortable starting Bowers in all formats unless your format doesn’t require you to start a tight end.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Caleb Wiliams, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Caleb Williams has the same outlook this week that he does most weeks…he’s a weekly QB2 that has some fringe QB1 appeal in really good matchups (especially during bye weeks for other QBs). His matchup this week is a pretty good one – the Panthers allow the 10th-most QB points per game and rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not quite enticing enough for Caleb to be a top-12 option in my opinion. The Bears are a 4-point favorite, so passing volume could be on the lower end, and I still don’t quite trust Shane Waldron yet. Every opponent the Panthers have faced this year has thrown for multiple TDs against them. If Caleb does that, he should push near a top-12 finish, but I’d view him as a mid-to-high end QB2 this week.
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Unlike Caleb Williams, Nix is a borderline option for 2-QB and superflex formats, not 1-QB leagues. Nix posted a performance in week 4 that few QBs have ever matched. He became just the 8th quarterback to ever throw for 60 or fewer passing yards on 25 or more attempts in a game, and the first QB to do it since Tim Hasselbeck in 2003. Nix is the only QB to ever do that and win the game. It was a level of inefficiency that we just don’t see in the NFL anymore. In fact, at halftime, Nix had 8 completions for negative-7 yards. Things can only get better this week against the Raiders, who rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, but the Broncos implied Vegas point total is under 20, and only 1 QB this season has found the end zone more than once against the Raiders. Nix’s rushing upside and favorable matchup mean you could plug him in as a QB2 if you had to, but I’d prefer to have a better option available.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 5: @ Atl.): Irving has been a hot waiver wire name now for a couple weeks thanks to a handful of impressive breakaway runs and some coach speak from Todd Bowles ahead of week 4 saying Irving has earned more work. The reality is that this backfield hasn’t shifted as drastically as you might think. Irving was out snapped by Rachaad White 44 to 30 in week 4. The gap between the duo has been narrowing, but White is still the RB1 in this backfield for now. The calls to for Irving to get more playing time were largely due to White’s abysmal rushing efficiency, but in week 4 White matched Irving with 10 carries for 49 yards on the ground. White has also averaged 8.3 yards per target while Irving has averaged just 4.3. Rachaad is going to have to continue to run well to stave off calls for him to lose more work to the rookie, but his receiving work is safe, and he’ll continue to handle about half of the rushing attempts for now as well. That means Irving is going to have to continue generating breakaway runs or find the end zone to be useful in your fantasy lineup, and the Falcons have allowed just 2 rushes of 20+ yards thus far. Atlanta allows the 10th-fewest RB points per game. It’s not a great matchup to attack with a running back that’s getting less than 50% of the workload. I’d view Irving as a fringe RB3 this week at best.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 5: @ Min.): Allen has now played 20+ snaps and received 9 or more opportunities in each of the last 3 games, but that usage level continues to make him a clear second fiddle to Breece Hall. He’s already shown us this season that he’s a flex-worthy option in good matchups, and he’s going to prove valuable at some crucial moment during bye weeks, but the matchup this week is rough. The Vikings rank 1st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game. It’s just not the right spot to count on Allen making an impact in a part-time role.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Steele may have fumbled away his opportunity to lead the Chiefs’ backfield during Isiah Pacheco’s absence last week. He fumbled his first carry of the game, played one more series, and then was barely seen the rest of the day as Kareem Hunt served as the lead back. Steele finished the game with just a 19% snap share and saw just one opportunity – a target he didn’t catch- after the first 2 drives. Andy Reid said after the game that “he’s got to hang on to the football,” but insisted that Steele is not a fumbler and that they still have confidence in him. I think they’ve at least lost enough confidence in him that he no longer has a stranglehold on the early down work, and that makes him tough to start against a Saints’ defense that ranks 8th in run defense DVOA. He’s got to re-earn that lead back role before you can plug him into lineups.
WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Legette took a big step forward in week 4 with Adam Thielen sidelined, logging an 88% route participation rate and tallying 6-66-1 on 10 targets, good for a WR13 finish for the week. It’s an extremely positive development for the rookie’s outlook for the next month or so while Thielen is out, but I’m going to be a little bit of a wet blanket here for at least week 5. Legette still ran fewer routes than both Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo last weekend, and his breakout game came against a Cincy defense that has been struggling to contain wide receivers in the last 3 weeks – they’ve allowed 20+ PPR points to 4 different receivers in the last 3 games. The Bears, on the other hand, have allowed just one receiver all year to reach that mark (Nico Collins). Chicago ranks 4th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game. I also think Legette is likely to draw the toughest CB assignment more often than Mingo or Diontae. The Bears have a clear #1 CB in Jaylon Johnson, who has been significantly better than CB2 Tyrique Stevenson and nickel Kyler Gordon. The Bears are predictable about where these corners line up. Mingo in the slot will draw mostly Gordon, and I expect Carolina to do what they can to keep WR1 Diontae Johnson away from Jaylon Johnson, meaning Legette is going to have to tangle with him often. It doesn’t mean Xavier can’t be useful this week. There’s certainly upside and he’s carved out a role, but I see him as more of a WR4 this week than WR3.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Coleman saw his route participation rate in week 4 climb back up to 73% after being all the way down at 31% the week prior, but that additional usage led to just 3 catches on 4 targets, with most of that production coming late in the game when the Bills were in a deep hole on the scoreboard. Houston has been a favorable matchup for fantasy WRs, allowing the 8th-most points per game to the position, but Coleman just hasn’t been involved enough in the last couple weeks when the games are still in doubt to trust him here. I’d keep him parked on the bench until we see him start to get more early usage in tight games.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): We got one glorious week of the Bears running their passing game through Odunze in week 3, but in week 4 he was back to running wind sprints. He’s now posted a target share below 15% in 3 out of 4 games this season despite being a full-time player, and he’s finished as the PPR WR50 or worse in all 3 of those games. There are going to be spike weeks when the Bears have to throw the ball a lot, but I worry this week’s contest could look a bit more like last week’s. Caleb Williams dropped back 103 times in weeks 2 & 3 combined as the Bears played from behind against the Texans and Colts. He dropped back just 26 times against the Rams while playing from the lead with the run game finally working. The Bears are 4-point favorites this week against Carolina, so the passing volume could again be a problem for Odunze. A 15% target share and 30 or fewer pass attempts means an uphill climb to a fantasy relevant finish for Rome.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 5: @ NE): Wright played his highest snap share of the season in week 4. He was on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps and was in a route on 54% of the team’s passing dropbacks, turning that usage into 9 rushing attempts and 1 target. The problem is that this offense has been a mess without Tua under center, those opportunities didn’t lead to much production, and Raheem Mostert seems likely to return from injury this week. The Patriots are just a middling run defense, but the Dolphins have a paltry implied total of 17.25 for the week, and Wright will likely serve as the RB3 if Mostert is able to play.
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Davis’ box score performances make it look like he’s had good involvement in the Bills offense, totaling 23 rush attempts in the last 3 games, but all 3 contests were blowouts, and Davis is getting the bulk of his work in garbage time. He’s only reached a 20% snap share once in 4 games, and this week’s contest with the Texans should be close enough that Davis doesn’t get much garbage time work. The Bills are favored by just one point. Davis is basically a TD dart throw with a low chance of hitting the mark.
RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Tracy has averaged 15 snaps and 4 opportunities per game, which just isn’t enough work behind Devin Singletary to be worthwhile in fantasy lineups.
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Benson handled 30% of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts last week, but much of that work was at the tail end of a blowout loss to the Commanders. He’s still splitting backup work with Emari Demercado, spelling James Conner in early down situations while Demercado spells him on passing downs. This week figures to have more of the latter with the Cardinals a 7.5-point underdog to the 49ers.
RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Corum hasn’t played a single offensive snap in 3 of the 4 games the Rams have played this season.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Polk saw his best usage of the season in week 4, running a route on 87% of the team dropbacks and earning 7 targets (24% target share). He even made a highlight real catch on a sideline throw dropped between two 49er defenders. The usage was more promising than the 3-30 final stat line that Polk finished with, and I’d be more bullish on Polk going forward if I felt like we could count on that usage continuing, but I don’t think we can. The Patriots’ week-to-week usage of their pass catchers has been very inconsistent, especially when it comes to targets. Each of their top 3 receivers have had at least one week with a 60% route participation rate and 5% or lower target share. They’ve also each posted a week with a 24% or higher target share. It’s impossible to trust any New England wide receiver when the team is averaging less than 150 passing yards per game, and you have no clue which receiver is going to see the target volume from week-to-week.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): McCaffrey was limited to a 47% route participation rate and just 1 target in week 4 as Noah Brown continued his ascent up the WR depth chart. Brown has seen his own route participation rate climb from 32% in week 2 to 58% in week 3 and 72% in week 4. He’s functioning as the clear WR2 behind Terry McLaurin, and McCaffrey is left splitting WR3 work with Olamide Zaccheaus. The Commanders are too run-heavy of an offense to take a chance on a player who is playing half of the WR3 role.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 5: @ Jax.): Mitchell has run just 11 routes and tallied zero catches in the two games since Josh Downs returned to the lineup. There’s a sliver of hope this week that he hits a splash play and winds up fantasy viable – the Colts have still tried to get him the ball deep, throwing 4 targets in his direction for 105 total air yards in the last 2 weeks, and the Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. If there isn’t a deep ball connection though, there’s a very real chance Adonai scores zero points yet again.
WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): The Raiders rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA this year, so there’s an opportunity for success against them in the passing game, but Franklin and Vele aren’t involved enough to be relied on. Vele had a promising week 1 but has been sidelined with a rib injury since. Now that he’s missed 3 weeks and Lil’Jordan Humphrey has established himself in the slot, Vele will likely have to earn back those reps slowly upon his return. Franklin has seen a small bump in playing time in recent weeks, logging route participation rates of 30 and 35% in the last two games, and Bo Nix targeted him on more than 40% of his routes in each game, but that turned into just 4 catches for 9 yards on 9 targets. His role could increase in future weeks, but neither player here is likely to exceed a handful of PPR points even if they have a good week.
WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Is this the week Wilson is finally activated? It probably won’t matter in fantasy. He’s missed enough time that there will be an inevitable ramp up before he’s playing a meaningful number of snaps. Rumors that the Steelers might trade for a WR diminish his value even further.
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): In two games with Tee Higgins back from injury, Burton has run just 5 routes total and earned zero targets.
TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Johnson continues to operate as the Giants lead tight end, but the volume just hasn’t been there. He’s averaged nearly a 70% route participation rate, but he’s only been targeted on 5% of the routes he’s run. We saw some promise in week one when he was targeted 4 times, but he’s earned just 4 total targets in the last 3 weeks as Malik Nabers has ascended.
TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I mention Barner because he got into the end zone on Monday Night Football against Detroit and posted a top-10 finish for the week as a result. There’s not a good reason to chase the touchdown here. Barner has made the most of his opportunities – he’s caught all 5 of his targets this season for 40 yards and a score, but he’s averaged just a 25% route participation rate and is no higher than 7th in the offensive pecking order on this team. Starting TE Noah Fant has also made the most of his opportunities, pulling in 8 of 8 targets for 86 yards on the year, making it harder for Barner to make real headway.
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Sanders posted his best fantasy day of the season last weekend. He only put up 2 catches for 16 yards, but it was still his best fantasy day of the season. Unfortunately, he also logged his lowest route participation rate of the season as well at just 21%. At this point, Sanders is merely the backup to Tommy Tremble. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this year.
TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): As I expected last week, it was Elijah Higgins, and not Reiman who served as the Cardinals TE1 with Trey McBride sidelined by a concussion. Reiman was in a route on just 14% of the team dropbacks and wasn’t targeted. McBride is fully expected to be back this week.
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Sinnott has been on the field a little bit more in the last two weeks, reaching a 20% route participation rate in each game, but his next target this season will be his first. He’s still splitting backup TE work with John Bates.
Rookies on Byes in week 5: WR Ladd McConkey, LAC
IR Rookies (practice window not open yet): RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR, RB Audric Estime, DEN, WR Ricky Pearsall, SF
Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:
QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Jerod Mayo keeps insisting that the Patriots aren’t all that close to making a change at QB, but beat writers have suggested there are rumblings from within the building that the change could be getting close. If Maye is still on the waiver wire in 2-QB redraft leagues, the best time to stash him would be now, before the change happens. If the Patriots fall to the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins this week and drop to 1-4, it could be Jacoby Brissett’s final start. Maye provides much more upside as a passer than Jacoby, and some rushing upside to boot. The schedule after this week does include some daunting defensive matchups, but there are soft spots against the Jaguars, Rams and Colts that could be great opportunities to start Maye in fantasy.
WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 5: @ KC): Tipton isn’t a player who should be put into lineups this week, but he’s worth mentioning for those of you in deep dynasty leagues because you may not realize the UDFA out of Yale has quietly emerged as the WR3 in New Orleans. It’s not a role that’s bringing a lot of target volume yet (just 4 targets in the last 2 weeks), but he’s logged route participation rates of 48% and 56% in the last 2 games. He’s worth stashing in the deepest dynasty leagues for the inevitable future hamstring injury that will hit Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed. He doesn’t have the same upside as that pair, but there will be weeks where he sees more targets than he has so far.
TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): All continues to play second fiddle to Mike Gesicki on the Bengals’ depth chart – he’s logged less than a 40% route participation rate in every game he’s played in - but the ball comes his way when he’s on the field. All has quietly logged 3 straight top-20 PPR finishes and has been targeted on more than a third of his routes in that span. His limited playing time makes him more of a floor play than a ceiling one, but he’s already worth weekly starting consideration in 2-TE formats, and he could be a reasonable bye week fill in for deeper leagues as he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 2nd-most TE points per game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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