Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We are already a third of the way through the NFL season. Time flies when you’re having fun, right? The truth is a lot of us are not having fun this year dealing with what feels like a never-ending avalanche of injuries. I feel like I’m talking about this every week, but every week there have been more back-breaking injuries that have to be worked around. This week it’s Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed, and Marvin Harrison Jr., and Dallas Goedert, and Travis Etienne. As crushing as those injuries can be, the NFL season marches on. We don’t have time to dwell on the players we don’t have. We need to be able to pivot and move on.
The silver lining here at the Rookie Report is that all of these injuries continue to make more and more rookies relevant each week. This week’s report touches on 4 QBs, 15 RBs, 20 WRs, and 5 TEs. I’ve been doing this Rookie Report since 2012, and this may be the most rookies I’ve ever written about in one week. We’ve got a lot to get through, so let’s get down to business.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 7…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): You already know what to do here. Daniels has scored 20+ fantasy points in all but one game this season, and he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league this week. Carolina ranks 31st in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12th-most QB points per game. He can’t be on your bench if you have him.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Nabers has missed two consecutive games due to a concussion, and he’s still the WR12 in total points for the year. He’s already been cleared to return this week, and if he’s back in the lineup, he should be back in yours. Nabers had logged 3 straight top-6 PPR finishes before getting hurt, and the Eagles have allowed the 6th-most WR points per game on the year.
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 7: @ LAR): For Bowers, the Raiders’ change at QB was a non-issue in week 6. Bowers logged his 4th top-5 PPR finish of the season in O’Connell’s first start, and with the news that Davante Adams is now gone to New York, Bowers should be the de facto WR1 in this offense going forward. That was probably already the case, but he no longer has the return of Adams looming over him. Will there still be a down game now and then? I’m sure there will, but he’s a player who should be plugged into your lineup every week. This week he faces a Rams’ defense that has allowed the 2nd-most TE points per game. The Rams have allowed a tight end to hit 40+ yards in 4 of their 5 games this season, and Bowers demands a higher target share than just about every other tight end they’ve faced.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 7: @ Jax.): Maye made quite an impression in his first NFL start. We were all hopeful he’d give the Patriots’ passing game a much-needed spark, and he certainly came through. Jacoby Brissett’s season-high passing yardage mark this season was 168 yards, and he had totals of just 2 passing TDs and 49 rushing yards for the year. Maye eclipsed all of those numbers in just 1 game, throwing for 243 yards and 3 scores last Sunday, while adding 50 rushing yards to boot. I don’t expect Maye to duplicate last week’s performance every week, but the arrow for this passing game is clearly pointing up, and they get a fantastic matchup in week 7. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed each of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to tally 23+ fantasy points. Deshaun Watson is the only QB this year to finish worse than QB9 against the Jaguars. I wouldn’t immediately rank Maye in the top-10 QBs this week, but he’s should be treated as at least a mid-range QB2.
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 7: @ NO): I’d only think about Nix in 2-QB and superflex leagues this week, but I think he’s worth consideration Thursday night in those formats. His performances so far haven’t been pretty to watch. Often the passing numbers are abysmal – he’s yet to hit 250 passing yards in a game and has averaged fewer than 4 yards per attempt twice, and the team is averaging just 18.7 points per game (8th-lowest in the league) - but Nix keeps willing his way into decent fantasy performances. The rookie has now posted back-to-back top-10 finishes, and has only turned the ball over once in his last 4 games. He’s also averaging 6 points of rushing production per week, giving him a decent floor even when the passing numbers are bad. The matchup this week looks tough on paper. The Saints allow the 9th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up plenty of passing yards. New Orleans has allowed 290 or more passing yards in 4 of their last 5 games. If Nix can finally hit 250 and keep his solid rushing floor, he’s going to creep his way into the QB2 ranks pretty easily.
RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Tracy’s outlook this week is once again going to be dependent on whether Devin Singletary gets cleared to return. Singletary is practicing in a limited capacity, but he did the same last week and eventually sat. If Devin sits again, Tracy should again serve as the RB1 in a matchup that’s better than you might think. The Eagles have allowed the 13th-fewest RB points per game, but that’s largely because they haven’t let any running backs get into the end zone. Bucky Irving is the only RB to score a TD against Philly this year, but they’ve allowed the 9th most RB rushing yards per game and 9th-most RB receiving yards per game, and rank a paltry 29th in run defense DVOA. This is a team that can be run on, and I expect Tracy to have success if he gets the starting nod. I’d view him as a borderline top-20 play in that scenario. If Singletary returns, I think Tracy will play a lot more than he was playing prior to the Singletary injury, and may still be able to find his way to a passable RB3 performance. He’s a good starting option if Singletary is out, and a dicey one if Singletary plays.
WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 7: vs. NE): Thomas predictably had a bit of a down week last Sunday in London against a tough Bears’ defense, but there’s no reason to overreact to one bad game. If Thomas had posted another strong outing against the Bears, he would’ve graduated to the section above, but we’ll keep him closer to the borderline for now. The rookie is still the PPR WR14 on the season and gets a much more favorable matchup this weekend (again in London). New England is a middling WR defense, allowing the 17th-most WR points per game, but they rank just 27th in pass defense DVOA. Thomas is likely to draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez in this game, but that hasn’t been a huge hinderance to the other receivers he’s shadowed. Gonzalez has been targeted on 27% of his coverage snaps and the Patriots have allowed the 9th-most fantasy points to perimeter WRs this season. I’m not sure I’d pencil BTJ in for his 3rd top-10 finish in the last 4 weeks, but he should be a solid WR2 option against the Pats.
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): If you’ve been starting Harrison every week this year, he’s now burned you 3 times in 6 games, but it’s hard to blame him for the concussion last weekend. There’s not much he could’ve done to give you production from the blue medical tent. In spite of the down weeks, and in spite of his tough matchup this week (the Chargers allow the 6th-fewest WR points per game), I’m recommending you go back to the well again this week if Harrison is able to get cleared. He was practicing in a non-contact jersey as of Thursday, so there’s a good chance he’s able to suit up this week. Harrison has finished as a top-24 PPR WR in 3 of his last 4 healthy games, and he’s had a 24% or higher target share and 33% or higher air yardage share in each of them. He’s getting excellent usage that should continue this week, and it’s hard to view him as any worse than a WR3 if he’s able to play. One word of caution here – Harrison doesn’t play until Monday night and still has a questionable tag. If you’re planning to start him, make sure he’s cleared or that you have a contingency plan ready to go in case he’s not able to play. In a perfect world, you’ll have him in a flex spot and give yourself some flexibility. There are 2 Monday night games this week, so anyone on the Chargers, Cardinals, Ravens, or Bucs could be used as your contingency.
WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.): This is shaping up to a week that could be Legette’s best of the season. The Panthers have been missing Diontae Johnson in practice all week and they face one of the worst secondaries in the league on Sunday in Washington. I don’t know if Diontae’s absences are truly due to the injuries or due to waiting on a trade to come together, but either way, if Johnson misses this game, Legette would serve as the de facto WR1 against a Washington defense allowing 18.3 fantasy PPG to opposing WR1s. His production hasn’t been overwhelming the last two weeks, but this is a get-right matchup. I think he’s a solid WR3 if Diontae sits. If Diontae plays, I think I’d still be fine leaving Legette in this section, but I’d move him to the bottom of it and rank him behind McConkey, Worthy, and Whittington.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 7: @ Ari.): McConkey continued to get the kind of usage most receivers can only dream of last weekend, logging an 85% route participation rate and earning a 25% or better target share for the 4th time in 5 games (he was at 21% in the other game). The problem for McConkey is team passing volume. He’s emerged as Justin Herbert’s favorite target, but the Chargers rank dead last in pass attempts per game. In games where the Chargers are underdogs or face good WR matchups, McConkey will be a solid PPR WR3 play. In games where they’re favored and/or face tough matchups, he probably won’t be. This week he gets a favorable matchup. The point spread is just 2.5 points, so game script should remain somewhat neutral, and the Cardinals have allowed the 8th-most WR points per game and rank 28th in pass defense DVOA. The Cards have been more vulnerable on the perimeter than in the slot, but I expect McConkey’s steady weekly target share to give him a great opportunity at a WR3 performance in this one.
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 7: @ SF): Worthy remains a boom-or-bust fantasy option, but as expected, the absence of Rashee Rice has cut down on that volatility a little bit. Worthy has now logged an 80% route participation rate or higher in each of the last 2 games, and though he hasn’t been heavily targeted, he’s still finished as a WR3 or better in each of those 2 contests. He could finally see his target share start to tick upward this week after JuJu Smith-Schuster was added to the injury report Thursday with a hamstring issue. JuJu led the Chiefs’ WRs in targets in their last game. Worthy’s limited route tree makes it tough for him to become a true target hog, but the JuJu injury is just another layer added to the rookie’s floor. The 49ers are a formidable matchup – they allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game and rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA, but I like Worthy’s chances to find his way to another WR3 day, and his speed always gives him a ceiling beyond that.
WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Whittington’s outlook could hit a snag this week if Cooper Kupp is able to return, but if Kupp remains out, I like Whittington to post a 3rd straight solid game. In the last two games before the Rams’ bye last weekend, Whittington had earned 18 total targets and posted 12+ PPR points in each game. He’s effectively been the WR1 in the last two games for LA, and while the Raiders have allowed the 9th-fewest WR points per game, they also rank just 24th in pass defense DVOA. I’d treat Whittington as a stable WR3 this week if Kupp sits, albeit one without a huge ceiling. If Kupp comes back, all bets are off, as Whittington could find himself splitting snaps with Tutu Atwell rather than playing a full-time role.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): I believed Rattler had sneaky upside last week because he had strong weapons and a good matchup, and he put up a respectable performance in spite of Chris Olave being injured right out of the gate, finishing as the QB20 for the week with 243 passing yards and a TD. I don’t believe that same upside exists this week. The Saints will be without both Olave and Rashid Shaheed on Thursday night, and Denver is a much tougher matchup. The Broncos have held 4 of the 6 QBs they’ve faced below 200 passing yards, and they’ve held 5 of 6 below 2 total TDs and 14 fantasy points (Rattler scored 14.4 last weekend). Spencer will be hard-pressed to match what he did on Sunday. He’s a bottom-of-the-barrel option this week among starting QBs. Patrick Surtain being out for this one is a small bump for Rattler, but he’s still just a fringe QB2 at best.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): There is probably no harder backfield in the NFL to figure out than the one in Tampa Bay. Irving and Rachaad White have been part of a 2-man committee all year, with Irving slowly creeping closer to an even split with the incumbent starter, but week 6 threw a big wrench into this situation. That wrench is named Sean Tucker. White was sidelined with an injury last weekend, and rather than Irving taking over a workhorse role, he split the backfield with Tucker, and Tucker made the most of his opportunity. Both Irving and Tucker finished the week as RB1s, but Tucker finished it as THE RB1 after putting up 192 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs. It appears as though White is going to return this week, and if he does, head coach Todd Bowles has said this that all 3 backs will play and he’ll take the dreaded ‘hot hand’ approach to sorting out the backfield. In this matchup, it’s possible that no one develops the hot hand against a Baltimore defense that has allowed just 45 RB rushing yards per game. The Ravens rank 4th in run defense DVOA and have only allowed 2 backs all year to reach 10 fantasy points against them. Even if the Bucs go back to Irving and White splitting the backfield work, and Tucker fades into the background again, it’s hard to be confident in either guy posting better than an RB3 day, and that’s if they find their way into the end zone.
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Ten.): Davis put on a show on Monday night while James Cook was sidelined by a toe injury, leading the Bills in both rushing and receiving while finishing as the RB14 for the week. He faces a stiff test this week against a Titans’ defense that allows the 10th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 6th in run defense DVOA, but I would still be telling you to start him if I was convinced that he’d have the lead role to himself. James Cook practiced in full on Thursday, so I’d be very surprised if he’s inactive again. That means Davis returns to splitting the backup work with Ty Johnson. I think Davis showed enough last week that he could carve out a bigger role going forward, but not big enough to be a strong lineup option in a tough matchup like this one. If you have to start him, you’re just praying he gets a couple cracks at the goal line.
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 7: @ Ind.): Wright had his best game of the season in week 5 ahead of Miami’s bye last week after De’Von Achane suffered an early game concussion. Wright still played behind Raheem Mostert, logging just a 34% snap share and 34% rush attempt share in that game, but he found a lot more success than Mostert, piling up 86 rushing yards on 13 carries. Unfortunately for Wright, it appears that Achane is in line to return this week, which pushes Wright into a 3-headed backfield at best. I’m not convinced he’ll play ahead of Mostert as the RB2 (if Achane is back) despite the strong performance the last time out. If Achane isn’t able to get cleared though, Wright has some flex appeal against an Indy defense that has allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards per game behind only the Rams.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 7: @ Pit.): I was enthused for Allen last week as the Jets took on one the worst running back fantasy defenses in the league, but the Jets’ change in play caller seems to have derailed that enthusiasm. Allen played just 19% of the snaps in week 6 – his lowest snap share since week 1 – and was limited to just 3 carries and 2 targets. It’ll be hard to trust that Allen will get a big enough share of the work going forward to be a flex option until we see it happen with Todd Downing calling the plays. Keep him parked on the bench against a Pittsburgh defense allowing the 8th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 7: @ SF): Steele has been limited to just a 19% snap share in each of the two games Kansas City has played since signing Kareem Hunt. Steele would’ve played more in week 4, but he lost a fumble and was sent to the bench. After the game, Andy Reid said the team still had confidence in Steele and that he ‘isn’t a fumbler.’ Then he lost another fumble in week 5, and again spent most of the game on the bench. Steele is likely coming out of the bye comfortably behind Hunt and Samaje Perine on the depth chart. He might be behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire at this point too.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Ten.): Coleman has been largely underwhelming through the season’s first 6 weeks. He came in as a 1st round pick to a WR room with no clear leader, and he’s struggled to separate himself from the pack (and also from cornerbacks). Coleman has finished as a top-40 PPR receiver just once in his first 6 games, and this week the Bills decided to go out and trade for that WR room leader that they’ve been missing in Amari Cooper. Coleman already has just a 14% target share on the year. It’s hard to envision that drastically going up once Cooper gets integrated. This week’s opponent, the Titans, have allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, so I’d view it as a bad week to expect Coleman to get on track. I’d treat him as a WR5 this week.
WR Ja’Lynn Pok, NE (Wk. 7: @ Jax.): The first start of Drake Maye didn’t bring the boost for Polk that we were hoping for last weekend. He lost playing time to Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne (Polk saw his route participation rate drop from 97% to 69% while Boutte’s rate went up 17% and Bourne’s jumped by 25%). Polk also saw his target share go in the wrong direction. He had totaled 13 targets in weeks 4 & 5, and was down to just 3 in week 6 as Demario Douglas emerged as Maye’s go-to receiver. Polk was even called out by his head coach Jerod Mayo after the game. Mayo said Polk needs to eliminate the dropped passes, be better at blocking, and work harder…not exactly things you want to hear about your fantasy WRs. In spite of all that, Polk has a chance to bounce back against the Jaguars’ terrible secondary. Jacksonville allows the 2nd-most WR points per game and ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. I still think I’d be hesitant to fire him up this week given the way other receivers on the team are stepping up.
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.): Sanders set a new season-high fantasy point total for the 3rd straight game in week 6, but that peak game was good enough for just a TE16 finish. He tallied 5 catches for 49 yards on 7 targets. If Tommy Tremble is out again this week with the concussion he suffered in week 4, Sanders is a viable option if you’re looking for a fringe TE1. He’s playing close to a full-time role, and there’s enough passing volume for him to be a factor. The Commanders are a bad pass defense, ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve been much more vulnerable to receivers than tight ends. They’ve coughed up the 12th-fewest TE points per game. I’m still not quite ready to say you should be starting Sanders in 1-TE formats, especially in this matchup. If Tommy Tremble is able to play, Sanders shouldn’t even be considered.
TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Johnson has benefitted the last two weeks from the absence of Malik Nabers, putting up stat lines of 5-48 and 3-30 without Nabers around to hog all of the targets. Nabers will return this week, which should leave Theo as an afterthought in the passing game as he was earlier in the year. Theo has shown himself to be a passable TE2 if you’re in a pinch when Nabers is out, but the matchup this week is rough even if Nabers weren’t able to return. The Eagles have allowed the 2nd-fewest TE points per game.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.):Brooks has returned to practice this week and has a realistic chance of making his season debut on Sunday, but Chuba Hubbard has just been too good to be pushed to the bench. Hubbard finished as the PPR RB16 last weekend after posting 3 consecutive top-7 finishes in the weeks prior. Hubbard is basically an RB1 right now, and he’s going to continue to handle the bulk of the backfield work until we see some slippage. Brooks will likely be eased in at first and could eventually work his way up to a 30-40% share of the work over the next few weeks. If Hubbard gets injured or falters at any point, it could open the door to Brooks taking over the lead back role, but until that happens, Brooks’ ceiling is as the team RB2. I wouldn’t expect more than a few touches this week if Brooks is active.
RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Corum finally moved ahead of Ronnie Rivers into the Rams’ RB2 role in week 5 ahead of the bye, but it didn’t lead to significant production. Corum was on the field for just 14% of the team snaps behind Kyren Williams. He carried the ball 5 times and was targeted once, and he finished with 33 scrimmage yards on the day. Corum did get stopped at the goal line a couple of times in that contest, only to watch Kyren Williams ultimately score the TD. The climb up the depth chart is good news for Corum, but this is still Kyren’s backfield. The Raiders are a weak run defense, ranking 28th in run defense DVOA, but it’ll likely have to be a lopsided score for the rookie back to get more than a handful of touches in this one. He’s no more than a desperation play this week.
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): There was a chance for Benson to move up a bit this week after James Conner left last week’s contest with an ankle injury, but Conner is practicing in full as of Thursday and should be good to go Monday night. Even with Conner sitting for the majority of last weekend’s game, Benson played just 18% of the offensive snaps. The Cardinals will continue to roll with Emari Demercado in negative game scripts, making Benson an afterthought. The Cardinals are 2.5-point underdogs this week, so perhaps they keep this one close and are able to keep running, but Conner’s health means Benson probably only gets a handful of carries if they do. The Chargers have allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game for the season and rank 7th in run defense DVOA.
RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Lloyd is eligible to return from IR this week, so he may be worth a stash in deep leagues, but it’s going to take time for him to work himself back into the rotation here. Emmanuel Wilson has performed admirably as the RB2, averaging 5 yards per carry behind Josh Jacobs. Lloyd isn’t going to just be handed his spot on the depth chart upon his return.
RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 7: @ NO): Estime returned from injured reserve last week, but he returned as the team’s clear RB3 and played just 2 snaps while Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin played 36 and 13, respectively. Estime can’t be started until we see that role grow.
RB Terrell Jennings, NE (Wk. 7: @ Jax.): You may not have heard of Jennings before – he’s a UDFA out of Florida A&M - but he was a part of the Patriots’ running back rotation last weekend with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined. He played 22% of the snaps and logged 5 carries for 13 yards. Jennings essentially served as the change of pace back on early downs behind Antonio Gibson while JaMycal Hasty served that role on passing downs. If Rhamondre misses another game, I’d expect Jennings to have a similar role, but it isn’t one that’s likely to lead to fantasy goodness, even in a good matchup against the Jaguars.
RB Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 7: @ LAR): Laube finally played his first snap of the season in week 6…and he fumbled on that one snap. It might be a while before he plays his second.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): The return of Noah Brown in week 6 meant McCaffrey was once again relegated to the muddled WR 3/4/5 range on this team with Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown. McCaffrey still hasn’t reached 4 targets in any game this year, and he’s hit 15 or more air yards in a game just once. He needs volume to be relevant on his short targets, and that volume just isn’t there, even in a good matchup with a bad Panthers’ defense.
WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): McMillan returned from injury in week 6, but he did not return to his pre-injury role. Jalen logged route participation rates of 80% or higher in each of the first 3 games of the season, but that number was at 15% in week 6 as Sterling Shepard was at 83%. There’s a chance we see some of that work shift back to McMillan this week, but it’s not something I would rely on for fantasy lineups. The Ravens do allow the most WR points per game, but I’d still keep McMillan parked on the bench.
WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Pearsall’s practice window is officially open this week as he works his way back from an IR stint for a gunshot wound. It’s possible he could be active as soon as this week, but the top 3 receivers in this offense are so well established, it’s going to take time for the 1st-round pick to carve out any sort of meaningful role. In the past 3 games, WRs not named Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or Jauan Jennings have run a total of 15 routes. There is a sliver of hope here as Jennings and Deebo are both questionable this week (Deebo is practicing as of Thursday, Jennings is not). If one or both of those players sit and Pearsall is active, he could serve as a starter and have a path to a handful of targets, but there’s no guarantee he plays a large role even in that scenario.
WR Adonai Mitchell. IND (Wk. 7: vs. Mia.): Mitchell’s opportunity for a breakout game in week 6 went by the wayside when Josh Downs was able to play with a toe injury and Michael Pittman Jr. miraculously recovered from a hamstring injury that had the team considering an IR stint for him. Instead of getting a chance as the WR2 in a high-volume Joe Flacco attack, he was relegated to his usual WR4 role. Mitchell was in a route on just 28% of the team dropbacks. The ball has come his way when he’s on the field – he’s getting open consistently and has been targeted on 30% or more of his routes in 4 straight games – but he’s not playing enough for that to matter. The outlook gets even worse for him this week. Anthony Richardson returns, lowering the passing volume substantially, and he faces a Miami defense that allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.
WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Wilson was a healthy scratch in week 5, and was limited to just 1 route run in his NFL debut in week 6. I’d view it as a win if he’s able to get to a handful of routes run this week.
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 7: @ Cle.): Over the last 4 weeks, Burton has gone from running 3 routes, to 2 routes, to 1, and then was a healthy scratch last Sunday night. I don’t expect he’ll be a healthy scratch every week, but he’s a long way off of being relevant right now.
TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 7: @ Cle.): All hit a season-high 40% route participation rate in week 6, but for the 2nd week in a row, he was targeted on less than 15% or his routes. He had some TE2 appeal when he was racking up targets on his limited snaps, but the re-emergence of Tee Higgins seems to have deflated those target numbers. This week’s matchup isn’t a good one for tight ends anyway, as the Browns have allowed the 6th-fewest TE points per game.
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): I’m going to repeat a popular refrain I’ve had for Sinnott this season…the next target he sees will be his first. The K-State product was the second tight end off the board in the NFL draft in April, but through 6 NFL games, he’s run just 35 targetless routes.
Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:
RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Guerendo is an intriguing option this week if Jordan Mason’s shoulder injury keeps him sidelined. Mason is practicing in a limited capacity early in the week, but keep tabs on the injury report here. After Mason departed last Thursday, Guerendo split snaps evenly with Patrick Taylor, but it was Guerendo’s breakaway 76-yard run to help seal the game that stole the show. I’d expect him to lead the backfield if Mason can’t play. The matchup is a tough one – KC allows the fewest RB points per game and ranks 2nd in run defense DVOA, but the 49ers are always going to lean on the run game. They’ve put up over 100 rushing yards in every game this season, including against a stingy Vikings’ defense when they were playing from behind all game. If any team can have success on the ground against KC, it’s the 49ers. If Mason plays, Guerendo is not a viable fantasy option, but he’s a reasonable flex play if Mason sits.
RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 7: @ Ari.): Vidal finally made his debut last weekend with Gus Edwards on IR, and he made a strong first impression, finding the end zone on a 38-yard catch on a wheel route for his first career touch. His playing time was still limited overall – he played just 24% of the snaps behind JK Dobbins – but Dobbins has an extensive injury history and there’s still room for Vidal’s role to grow even without an injury. He’s worth a stash as the next man up in one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league.
WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 7: @ NO): The Broncos have played quite the game of musical chairs at WR behind Courtland Sutton this season, seemingly changing on a whim who plays the bulk of the snaps each week. With Josh Reynolds now on IR, Franklin and Vele each logged around a 70% route participation rate last Sunday and put up PPR totals of 11.8 and 11.6 points, respectively. For now, they look like they’ll serve as the WR2 & WR3 while Reynolds is out, but of course that’s subject to change in this offense. Both receivers took different routes to get here…Vele was heavily involved in the offense in week 1, then hurt his ribs and was kept inactive for weeks after he’d recovered before finally getting back into the mix last week. Franklin, on the other hand, was minimally involved early and has slowly worked his way into a bigger role. Both players have shown a connection with Bo Nix. Franklin was his college teammate and has been one of the players Nix looks for when he throws deep (his aDOT for the season is 16.1 yards). Meanwhile Vele has been targeted 8 and 6 times in the two games he’s played with Nix, with most of those targets coming in the short and intermediate parts of the field. Both players are lucky enough this week that they get to avoid Marshon Lattimore, and that makes both of them sneaky upside WR4s. If you’re looking for ceiling, Franklin gets the better draw against the vulnerable Paulson Adebo. Adebo has allowed the 3rd-highest PPR points per route run against him of any starting CB playing this week (per ESPN’s WR/CB Cheat Sheet). If you’re looking for a safe PPR floor instead, Vele should be the safer bet to provide that. Both guys are in play this week against a New Orleans defense that allows the 11th-most WR points per game.
WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.): Diontae Johnson is not practicing this week as of Thursday, and a Johnson absence would be big news for Coker. It’s worth noting that Johnson is dealing with the same injury he played through the last two weeks, so the days off may just be for maintenance, but he’s practicing less this week than he did in the last two, so something may have changed. Coker has already shown himself to be a reliable target the last couple weeks and he’s already taken over the slot WR role and pushed Jonathan Mingo to the bench. If Diontae Johnson sits, it removes a 28% target share from the offense against a Commanders team that allows the 5th-most WR points per game and ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. Given the way he’s played the last couple weeks, I’d expect Coker to soak up some of those targets and should be able to find his way to a 5-50 sort of game. If you’re in a pinch in a deeper league, you could do worse than plugging in Coker if Diontae is out.
WR Bub Means & Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): The Saints enter their Thursday night tilt with the Broncos with both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed already ruled out for the week, elevating Means and Tipton into more prominent roles in the target pecking order. Means entered last week’s game after the injury to Olave, and he performed admirably, putting up 5-45-1 on 8 targets. Tipton has been serving as the starting WR3 for weeks now, but it hasn’t really translated into many fantasy points. This week’s matchup isn’t a great one, as the Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to WRs, but their star CB1 Patrick Surtain Jr. will miss this game with a concussion, softening that matchup just a bit. The Saints will start Spencer Rattler at QB once again, so the passing production could be volatile, but at the very least Means and Tipton will be on the field a lot, and we’ve seen at least one week of Rattler putting up reasonable production. If I were looking for a WR to pick here in a deep league, I’d go with Means. He’s shown a clear connection with Rattler, and will probably spend more time on the perimeter against Riley Moss and the Surtain replacement than Tipton will, but both players will have more upside than usual with Olave and Shaheed out. I’d view Means as a volatile WR4, and Tipton as a desperation dart throw.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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