Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully the first bye week of the season didn’t treat you too poorly, but more importantly, hopefully the injury bug hasn’t been too rough on you so far. This is a season that has already been a frustrating one when it comes to injuries, and the hits keep on coming this week. Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr., De’Von Achane, Derek Carr, Aaron Jones, and possibly Josh Allen have all added their names to the injury report this week. Not even kickers were immune, with Jake Moody suffering an ankle injury that likely cost the 49ers their week 5 game against Arizona.
Last week I dropped the ball on the injury front by not taking Devin Singletary’s injury seriously enough. I should have done a deeper dive into Tyrone Tracy and what his outlook would’ve been without Singletary, and I’ll try to do a better job of taking all injury possibilities into account here in week 6. There are plenty of rookies who could play crucial roles in filling in for injuries and byes in your lineups, and I want to provide the most thorough advice on the rookie crop that I can.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 6…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 6: @ Bal.): Daniels is the QB2 on the season, topping 20 fantasy points in 4 out of 5 games, and 25 points in 3 out of 5, and he gets to face a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 4th-most QB points per game. I do think there are some reasons for caution here – the Ravens have been better against QBs at home than on the road – but in season-long leagues don’t overthink this. Daniels should be started. To expand on the home/road split, Baltimore allowed 29+ fantasy points to Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow on the road and held Josh Allen below 8 points in Baltimore. This game is in Baltimore.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Nabers still isn’t practicing as of Thursday from the concussion he suffered two weeks ago, so obviously make sure he’s active before you start him in your lineups. We should have a better idea of how likely he is to play on Friday. A concussion is not an injury that results in a performance dip upon return, so you should feel comfortable firing up Nabers if he’s active. The Bengals have allowed the 13th-most WR points per game this year but have been especially vulnerable to WR1s. They’ve allowed strong games to all of Rashee Rice (5-75-1), Terry McLaurin (4-100-1), Diontae Johnson (7-83-1), and Zay Flowers (7-111) in the last 4 weeks. Nabers should be able to add a strong stat line of his own to that list if he’s able to get cleared.
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. (Wk. 6: @ GB): Harrison hasn’t been nearly as consistent of a producer as Malik Nabers, but his usage has remained rock solid over the last 4 weeks. Kyler Murray doesn’t force feed Harrison the ball to the same extent that Daniel Jones feeds Nabers, but Marv has still hit a 24% or higher target share and 33% or higher air yardage share in each of the last 4 games. This week he faces a Green Bay defense that has had a hell of a time containing perimeter receivers this season. Per ESPN’s Mike Clay, the Packers have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers. Green Bay has been missing Jaire Alexander for the past two weeks and could get him back to help, but I’d only view that as a slight downgrade for Marv. I’d treat him as a high-end WR2 if Jaire is out again, and a borderline WR2/3 if Jaire plays. Either way, he should be in your lineups. Keep an eye on the weather in this game though, as it currently looks like there will be some rain and wind at Lambeau on Sunday.
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 6: vs. Pit.): Bowers got back on track last weekend with a big game against the Broncos, tallying 8-97-1 on 12 targets. He finished as the TE2 for the week and is now the TE2 for the season in PPG. He gets a less than stellar matchup against Pittsburgh this week – the Steelers have only allowed 1 TE all year to top 30 receiving yards – but we know the targets will be there for Bowers with Davante Adams out, no matter who is playing QB. He remains a top-5 TE option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Caleb Williams has looked like he’s figuring things out in recent weeks, and his progress couldn’t have come at a better time. If you thought Williams’ breakout game last week only happened because he was facing the hapless Panthers, wait until you get a load of his opponent this week. The Jaguars rank dead last in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the most QB points per game. They’ve given up nearly 300 passing yards and 2 TDs on average and have coughed up 23+ QB points in each of the last 3 games (vs. Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, and Joe Flacco). If Caleb’s improvements in recent weeks are for real, I think he’s got a great chance to finish as a top-12 QB this week in a great matchup.
RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): I want to clarify that I would lean toward starting Tracy this week IF Devin Singletary is out again. Singletary is logging limited practices this week and may well return, but if he sits, Tracy did enough with his opportunity last week to be the featured back again. Cincy has allowed the 12th-most RB points per game and ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA, so this is a favorable matchup for a back who delivered an RB18 finish in a similar matchup last weekend. I’d treat him as an RB2/3 option if Singletary is unable to suit up, and could see him getting a few extra touches beyond his normal backup workload if Singletary plays. He’s earned more work with his performance last week.
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 6: @ NYJ): Davis was limited to just 2 snaps and 1 target in week 5, but he could be in line for a much bigger workload this week with James Cook battling a foot or toe injury. Cook didn’t practice on Thursday, putting his status for this game very much in doubt. If Cook misses this one, Davis will split the backfield work with Ty Johnson, and while Johnson has seen the better usage of the pair so far, I think Davis would get the bulk of the early down work. The Jets’ defense has allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game, but they’ve been more vulnerable on the ground that you might think, ranking 24th in run defense DVOA. Jordan Mason, Tony Pollard, and Javonte Williams have all had success running the ball against them, and I think Davis can as well. The Bills would be wise to lean on the ground game rather than testing New York’s stingy secondary. Davis is more of a flex play than locked-in starter (the split with Ty Johnson might not be as favorable for Davis as I expect), but he should be a solid option this week if Cook indeed can’t play.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): Allen posted his lowest snap share since the opener in week 5 against the Vikings, and a week later the Jets have fired their head coach and changed play callers. Coincidence? You be the judge. All jokes aside, Braelon still handled 7 opportunities last week (5 carries and 2 targets), and he gets a much more favorable matchup in this one against Buffalo. The Bills rank 7th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve also allowed the most running back points per game because they get shredded by backs in the passing game. De’Von Achane, Justice Hill, and Dare Ogunbowale each piled up 6+ catches and 55+ receiving yards against Buffalo. Unfortunately for Braelon, Breece Hall is also an effective receiver out of the backfield and has seen about twice as many targets as Allen this year, but I’ve said repeatedly this year that Allen is doing enough with his opportunities to be a quality flex play in good matchups, and this is a good matchup. Obviously, there is some risk baked in with the change in play-caller, so I wouldn’t fault you if you don’t want to plug in Braelon, but I think double-digit PPR points are a strong possibility.
WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 6: @ Chi.): Thomas is quickly approaching ‘Guys you already know you should start’ territory, but I wanted to hold him back in ‘borderline’ for at least one more week to emphasize that this is a tough matchup against the Bears. The Bears rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-fewest WR points per game, and Thomas should have to tangle with exceptional corner Jaylon Johnson a fair amount. Johnson doesn’t shadow the opposing WR1, so Thomas won’t see him on every snap. BTJ is having an exceptional rookie season this year and has been the picture of consistency. He’s finished as a top-30 WR in 4 of 5 games this season and as a top-10 WR in each of the last two. He’s also earned 8+ targets in three straight games. You should keep starting him this week, but temper expectations a little bit with the tougher matchup.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): If you scroll up just a couple players on this list to Caleb Williams, you’ll see that the Jacksonville Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the most WR points per game for the year. The entire secondary is a weak link, and the Bears would be wise to throw the ball often and exploit it. Odunze has been averaging close to 7 targets per game over the last 3 weeks and is in a route on close to 100% of the team passing dropbacks. If the Bears throw as much as I think they should, Odunze should see a nice workload. Hopefully they’ll get him the ball further downfield than last week, when he had just a 5.5-yard aDOT. The Jaguars have allowed a league-high 24 completions of 20+ yards this year. I know Odunze has been anything but a consistent fantasy performer, but this is a week where he should be able to find his way to a WR3/flex-worthy performance.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): The Patriots announced this week that Maye will get his first start on Sunday, and on paper it feels like he’s being thrown into the deep end. The Texans rank 5th in pass defense DVOA, and Maye is going to be under fire a lot. No team has allowed QB pressure at a higher rate than the Patriots this season, and the Texans’ defense generates QB pressure at the 9th-highest rate in the league. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are going to have their sights set on Maye in this one. It could be a trainwreck, but there are some reasons I have a little optimism. Maye has skill as a scrambler, and the Texans have allowed 3 different scrambling QBs to run for 40+ yards against them (Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams). They’ve also allowed 3 different QBs this year to throw for multiple TDs. It won’t always be pretty this week, but if you’re in a pinch for a QB2, I’d rather try Maye over the other rookie below.
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Nix has proven to be a better fantasy asset than expected in recent weeks. He finished as the QB13 in week 3, and posted a season-best QB8 finish last weekend in a win over the Raiders, but he’s done his best work against soft defenses. He’s faced just two defenses all year that rank in the top-12 in pass defense DVOA (Sehawks & Jets), and in those matchups he totaled fewer than 200 passing yards and averaged less than 3 yards per passing attempt. This week he faces a Charger defense that ranks 3rd in pass defense DVOA. Nix has been able to supplement his fantasy point totals by averaging 6 points per game worth of rushing production, but the Chargers have been especially stingy in that department. LA has faced 4 QBs who can scramble a bit – Gardner Minshew, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, and Bryce Young – and allowed a total of just 29 rushing yards on 15 carries to that group. This looks like a week where Nix will probably finish outside the top-24 QBs, even with 4 byes and 2 other rookies making their debuts this week.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 6: @ NO): Irving hit a season-high 43% snap share last week, but that’s still not quite the workload folks have been hoping for from him. Rachaad White continues to hold the bigger side of a 60/40 split with the rookie. The two backs have split the rushing work close to evenly – White has handled 20 carries in the last 2 weeks to 19 for Irving – but White owns the valuable passing downs, playing 39 long down & distance snaps this year compared to just 7 for Irving. It doesn’t help Bucky that he lost a fumble late last week when they could salt the game away and that White’s rushing efficiency has improved in the last two weeks. Of course, Irving could find his way to a useful fantasy day with his current workload, but I’m not overly confident he gets there against a New Orleans defense that allows the 12th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 12th in run defense DVOA.
WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Legette sits right on the borderline for me this week. I wouldn’t fault you for any choice you make with him this week. He left last week’s contest with an apparent shoulder injury, but he’s been practicing in full for this week’s tilt with the Falcons. By the eye test he’s looked like he should be the Panthers’ clear WR2 while Thielen’s on IR, but his targets have been inconsistent since Andy Dalton took over. Dalton peppered him with 9 targets in week 4, but has thrown his way just 3 times on 32 routes in the other 2 games they’ve played together, leaning more towards Jonathan Mingo as the 2nd option in those games. Atlanta is a matchup where the weakest link in their secondary has been Dee Alford in the slot, but perimeter WRs like George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have all topped 75 receiving yards against them as well. I also trust Legette to capitalize on his opportunities more than I do Mingo. The Panthers are 6.5-point underdogs and should be throwing a bunch, making Legette a viable WR4 option. I just don’t feel quite confident in him enough to say you should start him.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 6: @ Den.): McConkey’s usage has been extremely encouraging in recent weeks. He logged route participation rates of 88% and 86% in the last two games and target shares of 30% and 27%. Those marks should be good enough to make most receivers an every week starting fantasy WR, but that’s not the case in the Chargers’ offense. The Chargers want to run, run, and run some more, and I think the game script and defensive matchup will let them do that this week. LA is favored by 3 points in a game with the lowest Vegas point total of the week. Denver ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, so compiling passing stats will be tougher than normal even if there is volume. McConkey in the slot will likely avoid Patrick Surtain, but the weak link the Denver secondary has been Riley Moss, not slot corner Ja’Quan McMillian. McMillian has allowed less than 0.2 PPR points per route run against him. For reference, Ladd McConkey is averaging just 21 routes run per game. I’d view him as a dicey WR4 unless you think the Chargers are going to be chasing multiple scores here.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 6: @ NYJ): Coleman has been on the field a healthy amount in the last two weeks, logging route participation rates just over 70% in each game, but his target share didn’t see a significant bump last week with Khalil Shakir sidelined. It remains to be seen if Shakir will return this week, but Keon still hasn’t been targeted more than 5 times in a game this season. He does boast a 15-yard aDOT for the year, so it doesn’t take more than a handful of targets for him to have a shot at a solid game, but I’m not sure I’d bet on it this week against the Jets’ stingy outside corners (Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed). The Jets rank 7th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game. I’d look elsewhere for a bye week fill-in WR this week.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): Polk’s usage continued its upward trajectory last week, as he was in a route on a whopping 97% of the team’s passing dropbacks against Miami, and was a heel away from catching the game-winning TD. He’s now earned 13 targets in the last two games and is getting close to being a weekly WR4 option. This week is going to be an unpredictable one for the Pats’ pass-catchers as Drake Maye makes his first start and Kendrick Bourne gets himself re-integrated into the offense (Bourne ran just 10 routes in his return from the PUP list last week). The Texans have been vulnerable on deep throws this year, and Maye gives New England a better chance to exploit that than Jacoby Brissett did – the team with Brissett under center has a league-low 6 completions of 20+ yards for the year – but the Patriots have an abysmal implied Vegas point total this week of just 15.25 points. The best option here is probably to just stay away from this offense in fantasy, but I do think there is some sneaky upside. At the very least, Polk is worth a stash in case Maye proves to be the real deal.
TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Johnson had his best game as a pro last weekend, turning an 80% route participation rate into 5-48 on 5 targets with Malik Nabers sidelined. He’s had a big role in the games where the Giants aren’t force feeding Nabers. He was targeted 4 times in week 1, when Nabers logged just a 19% target share, and then 5 times in week 5 with Nabers out. He totaled just 4 targets in the 3 weeks in between. His outlook for this week really sort of depends on Nabers. If Nabers plays, Johnson won’t be involved enough for you to start him. If Nabers sits, Theo is a serviceable fill-in TE if you have a bye or injury. Don’t be tricked by the fact that the Bengals have allowed the 4th-most TE points per game. Prior to last week’s contest with Baltimore, starting tight ends were averaging just 3.2 points per game against Cincy. Charlie Kolar, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined for 36.4 points last weekend in what was probably an outlier game. Don’t let that one game sway you into getting overconfident about Theo’s matchup.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): It’s possible Brooks gets activated this week, but he’ll have a slow ramp up to anything resembling a full workload, and Chuba Hubbard is just playing too well to be supplanted right now. Chuba has logged 3 consecutive top-7 PPR finishes.
RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Estime is eligible to come off IR this week, but he’ll do so as the Broncos’ RB3 now that Javonte Williams is picking up steam. The Broncos also face a Charger defense that allows the 7th-fewest RB points per game this season. Any sort of notable performance out of Estime would be unexpected.
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 6: @ GB): Benson played zero snaps last week in the Cardinals come-from-behind win over the 49ers. I mentioned prior to the game that a trailing game script would likely favor Emari Demercado for the RB2 work over Benson, and things played out as expected there. The Cardinals are 5-point underdogs to the Packers this week, so we’ll see more of the same if things go as Vegas expects them to.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 6: @ Bal.): McCaffrey saw his route participation rate climb back up to 64% this past weekend with Noah Brown sidelined, but he finished the game with just 3 targets and 9 air yards. His role certainly grows when Brown is out, but he doesn’t get enough target volume to survive solely on short routes, and that’s all he’s getting. The Ravens have struggled against WRs, allowing the 3rd-most points per game to the position, but most of the damage is being done by opposing WR1s – Rashee Rice, Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the only WRs who have gone for 80+ yards against the Ravens, and they’ve scored 5 of the 8 WR TDs Baltimore has allowed this year. Ancillary pieces like McCaffrey just haven’t had much success against them.
WRs Devaughn Vele & Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Devaughn Vele’s absence from the lineup continues to drag on due to a rib injury. There’s no telling when he’ll return, but he hasn’t played since week 1 and hasn’t been placed on IR. At this point I think it would be a mistake to expect him to be inserted back into a starting role upon his return. Franklin, meanwhile, has served as the team’s WR4 and is yet to top a 35% route participation rate. There’s something to like with Franklin if he can get himself into more playing time – he obviously has a connection with his college QB Bo Nix and has been targeted on 11 of his 28 routes in the last 3 weeks (39.3% target rate). If he could put up numbers like that in a single game rather than over 3 games, we’d be cooking with gas. Franklin hasn’t been putting up big fantasy point totals, so you might assume those targets are all short, but his aDOT is more than 15 yards downfield. He and Nix just haven’t been connecting on the downfield targets. There’s real upside for Franklin if and when he works himself into a bigger role. Josh Reynolds is battling an injury this week, so Franklin’s outlook changes a bit if Reynolds is unable to suit up. I’d see him as a dart throw WR5 in PPR leagues if Reynolds sits.
WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Tipton was in a route on 47% of the Saints’ passing dropbacks in week 5, and he earned a season-high 4 targets, including a couple of deep shots, but he finished with just 1 catch for 2 yards. His role is already low in the target pecking order here, and the switch to Spencer Rattler at QB this week makes a breakout game even less likely.
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 6: @ NYG): In the last 3 ballgames, Burton has run 3 routes, then 2 routes, then 1 route, and logged zero targets in each game. There’s nothing to see here.
WR Johnny Wilson, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Wilson was heavily involved in the Eagles’ offense in week 4 ahead of their bye, logging a 49% route participation rate against the Bucs. That usage came with both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith sidelined by injury, and both are expected to return this week, relegating Wilson back to the bench.
WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 6: @ LV): Wilson was finally off the Steelers’ injury report in week 5, but he still found himself on the inactive list as a healthy scratch on Sunday night. It looks like he has a longer road than expected to work his way into the WR rotation in Pittsburgh.
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): For the second straight week, Ja’Tavion is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season. For the second straight week, that season-best performance was not good enough for a top-30 PPR finish. Sanders was forced into action due to a nasty concussion suffered by Tommy Tremble, one that I expect will keep him sidelined again this week, but Sanders turned 31 routes into just 3 catches for 13 yards on 5 targets. He’ll serve as the starting tight end this week against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 12th-most TE points per game, but that ranking is deceptive and Ja’Tavion’s production has been poor even when he’s had opportunities. The Falcons’ points allowed to tight ends were inflated by two rushing scores by Taysom Hill earlier this season. No other TE to face Atlanta has reached 6 fantasy points against them (half-PPR), and they’ve faced Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, Cade Otton, and Pat Freiermuth this season. It wouldn’t shock me if Sanders found his way to a top-20 finish this week with his full-time role, but a top-12 finish would.
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 6: @ Bal.): Sinnott ran more routes that John Bates for the first time all season in week 5, but that still amounted to just a 19% route participation rate, and he still hasn’t seen his first target of the season.
Rookies on byes in week 6: RB Blake Corum, LAR, RB Jaylen Wright, MIA, RB Carson Steele, KC, WR Xavier Worthy, KC, WR Jordan Whittington, LAR
Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:
QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Derek Carr left Monday night’s game against the Chiefs with an oblique strain that should sideline him for a couple weeks, and while it was Jake Haener who replaced him in that game, the Saints have announced that it’ll be Spencer Rattler who will make the start in week 6. Rattler is a kid who was an elite recruit in college with a ton of arm talent, but he never seemed to put all of the pieces together across 4 seasons as a college starter. He gets a favorable situation for his first pro opportunity. He’ll practice as the starter all week, he has strong weapons at his disposal in Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and the Bucs are a favorable matchup for QBs. Tampa has allowed the 2nd-most QB points per game this season. They’ve been cooked on the ground by Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Jalen Hurts, and they coughed up 300 passing yards to Jared Goff and 500 to Kirk Cousins. Rattler isn’t much of a scrambler, so he’ll do the bulk of his work throwing the ball. It’s worth noting that outside of Kirk Cousins’ 4-TD bonanza last week, the Bucs have allowed just 1 passing TD the rest of the season. Rattler is a very low floor option, but there’s a chance he turns in a serviceable QB2 performance if you’re in a pinch.
RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 6: @ Den.): Gus Edwards is battling through an ankle injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday. If he were to miss this game, Vidal will almost certainly be active for the first time this year. Hassan Haskins has served as the RB3 in this offense so far, but that’s likely because of his prowess as a special teamer and Jim Harbaugh’s comfort level with him from their time together at Michigan. I’d expect Vidal to leap-frog him into the RB2 role this week if Gus sits. That still wouldn’t make Vidal start-able this week. He’d likely be in line for something like a 20-25% snap share against a Denver defense that ranks 6th in run defense DVOA. But if he impresses on limited touches, he has a chance to earn a bigger role going forward. Gus Edwards is a very assignment-sound, solid backup running back, but he doesn’t have the juice that Vidal does. Vidal’s performance and usage should be monitored this week, and he may be worth a stash in dynasty leagues if you’re lucky enough that he’s still available (he’s available in 21% of dynasty leagues on Sleeper).
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 6: BYE): Wright is on a bye this week, but his performance in week 5 is one the Dolphins are likely to take note of. The rookie showed more juice than Raheem Mostert after the starter De’Von Achane left with a concussion, rushing for 83 yards on 13 carries, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move ahead of Mostert on the depth chart in the near future. Achane should be able to return after the team bye this week, but if he can’t, Wright could serve as the RB1 against a burnable Colts’ defense in week 7. Even if Achane returns, Wright will carry a ton of upside in the event of another Achane or Mostert injury later in the season, especially with Tua looking like he’ll return from IR as soon as he’s eligible in week 8.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 6: @ Ten.): It was revealed this week that Michael Pittman Jr. suffered a hamstring injury severe enough that the team is considering putting him on IR, and as of Thursday Josh Downs isn’t practicing due to a toe injury. Adonai Mitchell may suddenly find himself as the Colts’ WR2 this week in Nashville. I’m sure Ashton Dulin will also play a bigger role if Downs is out, but Mitchell would also see the most playing time he has all year. I do wish this had happened with a better matchup on deck though, and for Mitchell’s sake, I kind of wish Joe Flacco were still starting. Flacco targeted Mitchell on 7 of his 12 routes last week. This week’s opponent, the Titans, have allowed the fewest WR points per game and rank 9th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also don’t get hurt deep – they’ve allowed the fewest completions of 20+ yards this year and have allowed zero completions of 40+. The Colts offense has thrived on deep shots to Alec Pierce, and they’ve looked for Mitchell deep often as well, but those opportunities might not be there against the Titans. The matchup puts a damper on the outlook here, but if Downs is out, anything short of 5-6 targets would be surprising given how thin the WR room is this week. Mitchell is still a boom-or-bust WR4/5 option, but there should be a floor to keep a bust week from killing you.
WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): This may prove to be a moot point, but Coker is worth consideration until we know for sure that Legette is going to play. Xavier is practicing in full to start the week, so he likely avoided the AC joint injury the team was afraid of last weekend, but it’s worth monitoring. Coker impressed when forced into an expanded role, pulling in 4 passes for 68 yards primarily from the slot. If Legette is healthy, Coker may have still done enough to steal some slot work from Jonathan Mingo going forward, just not enough that he’s a worthwhile start this week. If Legette sits, however, Coker is worth consideration as a flex/WR4 in deeper leagues. Dee Alford in the slot has been the weakest link in the Falcons’ secondary thus far.
WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 6: @ NO): McMillan continues to battle through a hamstring injury, but he logged a limited practice to start the week and seems to have a real chance of returning Sunday. In the 3 games he suited up for, he tallied route participation routes of 80% or higher in all of them, and his average target was over 15 yards downfield. Keep tabs on the injury reports here, but if McMillan returns to something close to his normal role, he’s got some extra upside against a New Orleans defense that has given up the 5th-most completions of 20+ yards and the 2nd-most completions of 40+ yards this season (T-5th and T-2nd to be precise). The floor here is zero points, but there’s a ceiling that may prove to be worth chasing.
TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 6: @ NYG): Mike Gesicki popped up on the Bengals’ injury report and didn’t practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury (he returned to a limited practice Thursday), opening the door for All to potentially serve as the starting TE this week against the Giants. Week 5 was a down week for the rookie – he matched his highest route participation rate of the season (37%) but earned his lowest target rate (13%) since week 1. All had been putting up 6-8 weekly PPR points because he was being targeted on more than a third of his routes, but he tallied just 3 points last Sunday as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins dominated the receiving work. If Gesicki misses this week, I think we could see All’s route participation climb into the mid-50s (that’s where Gesicki has been), and he should get back into that 6-8 point range even if the target rate doesn’t rebound. If the target rate bounces back, a top-12 finish is possible.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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