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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, grueling offseason without football, but week 1 is finally upon us! For those of you who are new here, the Rookie Report is my weekly breakdown of the matchups each of the fantasy relevant rookies will face. Each week I’ll break them down into rookies to start, borderline rookies, and rookies to sit, then I’ll give you a few guys to consider as deep league fill-ins or cheap DFS tournament plays. Week 1 is always one of the toughest to project. It’s hard to know what to expect from players who have never taken a regular season NFL snap, and it’s also tough to know for sure which defenses will regress or improve from one year to the next until we see them on the field. For that reason, week 1 is going to be full of mostly guys to sit and sleepers, but I try to give a little insight as to why each week as well.

Since it’s week 1, I also have a special treat before we get into this week’s matchups. Here’s a look at my top-10 fantasy rookies for 2018:

1. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG: Barkley is poised to be the Giants’ workhorse back, and barring injury appears to be a lock to finish as one of the top-8 backs in fantasy this year in PPR leagues. He should carry plenty of value in non-PPR leagues as well.

2. Royce Freeman, RB, DEN: Freeman has come on strong through training camp and the preseason, and he is an unexpected player to see here as the #2 rookie. Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel all had higher draft positions, but either due to injury or tougher competition for playing time, they all open the season in worse position than Royce. Freeman looks to be the lead back in Denver from week 1 on, and he should be a low-end RB2 in most formats. Denver’s offense should improve overall with Case Keenum under center.

3. Michael Gallup, WR, DAL: Gallup walks into a wide-open Cowboys’ WR depth chart with plenty of targets available now that Dez and Witten are gone, and he should start on the outside right away. The Cowboys will want to be run-heavy with Ezekiel Elliott, but their defense and banged up o-line could make that challenging. Gallup has WR3 upside this season.

4. DJ Moore, WR, CAR: Moore should start immediately in Carolina, but he’ll face stiffer target competition than Gallup. Greg Olsen returns, Christian McCaffrey is poised for a monster year, and Devin Funchess remains a starter after a breakout campaign in ’17. I trust that Moore is the more talented receiver of he and Gallup, but he’ll be hard-pressed to carve out a fantasy-starter kind of workload.

5. Sony Michel, RB, NE: The Patriots’ backfield is often the bane of many fantasy owners’ existence due to inconsistent usage from week-to-week, but I have faith that Michel has a big role this season. Belichick has never really invested much capital into the position. They’ve always made do with late round draft picks, cast-offs from other teams and undervalued free agents. Mike Gillislee, Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, James White, Jeremy Hill, LeGarrette Blount. None of them have cost much to acquire, which is why it stands out that the Pats used a first round pick to acquire Michel. He may start slowly as he works his way back from a preseason knee injury, but make no mistake, the Patriots think this is a special player and he’ll be involved.

6. Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET: Johnson will likely still have to work his way past Blount to be a fantasy force this year, but Blount hasn’t had much success outside of New England in his career. After investing a first round pick in a nasty run-blocking center, and trading up in the second to get Kerryon, it looks like Johnson has a chance to give the Lions the running game they’ve been seeking for most of the past decade.

7. Anthony Miller, WR, CHI: There are a ton of targets available in Chicago with a fully revamped group of pass catchers in town. Miller should be a factor early in the year, and he could really shine if Allen Robinson falters in his return from his ACL injury from last year. 800 yards and a handful of TDs would be a successful rookie campaign for the Memphis product.

8. Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA: Penny has definitely faltered in training camp after the Seahawks selected him in the first round, but he’ll get his chances as the season gets going. Seattle wants to be much more run-heavy this year, as evidenced by the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer as OC and the offseason investment in Penny and the o-line. Chris Carson will get the first crack at the job, but I’d be surprised if Penny doesn’t push for 200 carries barring an injury.

9. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE: Carlos Hyde as operated as the lead back throughout camp, and Duke Johnson’s 3^rd-down role is secure, but Chubb is just too talented to keep him down for long. He’ll get his opportunities, and when he succeeds with them, he’ll get more of them. Chubb has a chance to be a fantasy force in the second half of the season.

10. Sam Darnold, QB, NYJ: Darnold is the only rookie QB slated to start week 1, and I’d fully expect him to start all season. He has a few weapons now that the Jets have realized Bilal Powell is their best RB and they’ve got Quincy Enunwa back healthy. There will be some growing pains, but Darnold has a chance to finish the year as a respectable QB2 if he hits the ground running.

That’s all for the Top-10; now let’s dig into the week 1 slate…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Barkley is the one rookie I can confidently recommend for week 1. The Giants took him 2^nd overall, and they plan to use him a ton. Jacksonville’s defense is considered to be the best in the league, but they were giving to opposing RBs last year. They ranked 27^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency, and struggled a bit to contain backs who could catch as well. You didn’t make Barkley your first pick to sit him week one.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): Freeman draws a defense that was in the middle of the pack against the run in 2017, and they have lost much of the starting lineup that got them there. This isn’t the same Seattle defense that was feared a few years ago, and Freeman has a great shot at a successful debut. He’s an excellent flex option this week.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): I’d probably lean towards not playing Kerryon this week, but I’d expect he’ll at least be splitting the early down work with Blount, and the Lions are favored by nearly a touchdown. If Johnson finds the end zone, he’ll post a solid day.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): Moore is a flex option in deeper leagues this week. The Dallas defense could be abysmal this year, and DJ is essentially going to be the Panthers’ WR 1-A this season. 5-70 isn’t an unrealistic hope for Moore’s debut.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 1: @Car.): On the other side of this matchup, Gallup will have a chance to produce as well. The Panthers’ young secondary is decent, but nothing to be afraid of here, and I think Dallas plays from behind and throws more than they’d like. That negative game script would bode well for Gallup. I’d rather play Moore this week, but Gallup is also on the flex radar in week 1.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Det.): Darnold will be the youngest QB ever to start in week 1 of their rookie season, and he goes into Detroit as a 6.5-point underdog facing a defense that forced more turnovers last year than any teams not named the Jaguars or Ravens. He also will be without one of his starting receivers in Jermaine Kearse. It’s not a recipe for success his first time out.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Pit.): I love Chubb’s upside for the back half of the year, and the Steelers’ run defense hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier’s injury, but at least for week 1 it will probably be the Carlos Hyde show on early downs. Chubb may see a handful of carries, but it’s hard to predict big things with such a limited workload.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 1: @Den.): Penny will likely see a few carries, but for now it’s going to be Chris Carson leading the way for the Seahawks’ backfield, and the matchup this week is daunting if Denver is anywhere near as good against the run as they were a year ago. Steer clear of Penny this week.

RB Ronald Jones, TB (Wk. 1: @NO): This one should be pretty obvious as Jones was listed as the team’s 3^rd-string back behind Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers earlier this week. Don’t overthink it.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Trust the people telling you that James Conner is the back you want this week with Le’Veon Bell likely to miss this game. I’m curious to see how the Steelers deploy Samuels given his versatility (he played TE, RB and WR in college), but I don’t expect him to pick up much of the slack left by Bell’s absence this week.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 1: @Phi.): Ridley enters the season as the #3 receiver behind Julio and Sanu, and that likely puts him behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the target pecking order as well. That’s just too low in the food chain to trust until we see different on the field.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): While I like Kirk to finish the year as the Cardinals’ 2^nd WR, his role for week 1 is foggy at best. It sounds like he will be rotating with Chad Williams and JJ Nelson, and his usage will just be too hard to predict for fantasy purposes in the opener.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): I was very tempted to list Sutton as a sleeper this week as he’s been better than expected through the preseason, but I’m just not sure there will be enough passing volume out of Denver to trust Sutton in week 1. He’s still behind Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas in the pecking order. There’s definitely upside given what he’s shown so far, but I would have a hard time trusting him in week 1.

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): The Dolphins’ head coach Adam Gase has talked up the role that Gesicki will play this season, but the reality is that the rookie caught just 1 pass in the preaseason, he’s struggled as a blocker as well, and rookie tight ends rarely produce strong fantasy numbers. Also, the Dolphins haven’t had a TE reach 400 receiving yards in Gase’s two seasons as head coach. I’ll need to see it before I believe it with Gesicki.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Plays:

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): In all honesty, I trust Rex Burkhead more than Michel in week one since there is no guarantee that Sony is able to play yet, but if he goes I expect he’ll be involved. As I mentioned with Michel in my top-10 rookies, the Patriots NEVER spend resources on a running back. I think they want Sony to show why he’s the exception. He’s an intriguing risk/reward flex play for deeper leagues if he’s a go.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): You could certainly make a case for Hines’s teammate Jordan Wilkins as a sleeper here since it’s likely Wilkins starts on Sunday. Wilkins certainly has the higher floor, but against the Bengals’ defense, I’d rather roll the dice on the big play guy. Hines has struggled through the preseason, but Marlon Mack’s absence should open the door for him to get on the field on 3^rd downs, and it only takes a couple big plays for Hines to have a huge game. He’s an explosive athlete, and one who could catch the Bengals by surprise. He’s no more than a DFS tournament punt play, but one who could pay off big.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 1: @GB): The Packers are favored by more than a touchdown in this game, and if the Bears fall behind I think Miller has a chance at a stronger than expected game. The Packers’ have had one of the worst pass defenses in the league two years running, and I don’t think they addressed it enough this offseason to make major strides. A 4-60 kind of game wouldn’t surprise me from Miller. If he finds the end zone with it, he’ll make some DFS players a little money.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): With Le’Veon Bell sitting in week one, and the Browns boasting a stout run defense (ranked 4^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA last year), there are plenty of passing targets to go around for the Steelers.  Cleveland’s defensive scheme under Gregg Williams was kind of a joke last year, often lining up a safety deep enough to return a punt. It helped the Browns not get killed deep, but they were roasted in the intermediate part of the field, an area where Washington excelled in his career at Oklahoma State. I’d expect Washington to play in 3-WR sets this week, and the opportunity is there for him to be a sneaky DFS dart throw.

WR TreQuan Smith, NO (Wk. 1: vs. TB): I was sleeping on TreQuan around the time of the draft, but it’s hard to overlook what he’s been doing this preseason. The Saints clearly love him, and he could wind up the long-term WR2 behind Mike Thomas. He’s impressed all preseason while Cam Meredith was sidelined. He’s got a little work to do to move up the depth chart, but he’s an excellent dynasty or deep league stash at this point in the year. It’s very possible he surpasses Meredith and Ted Ginn by the latter part of the season.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Goedert could be in line for a strong debut. The Eagles will be without Alshon Jeffrey, and his likely replacement in Mack Hollins. That really leaves just Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace as worthwhile receivers that will be available. Expect a bunch of two-TE sets from Philly on Thursday, and expect Goedert to surprise. 5-6 targets is a reasonable expectation for the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Enjoy the action as the season gets underway Thursday night. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure you don’t end up starting a player who isn’t going to suit up, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Wasn’t it great to have real live regular season NFL action back? We finally have some real game data on this year’s rookie class, and at least for one week the results were surprising. Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman performed about as expected, but everyone else was a surprise. The other standout rookies of week 1 were Sam Darnold, Phillip Lindsay, Dante Pettis, and Will Dissly. You probably hadn’t heard of at least two of those 4 prior to Sunday. As for the more heralded rookies, it was less than a memorable week 1. DJ Moore, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Rashaad Penny, Calvin Ridley, James Washington, and Dallas Goedert were all pretty quiet in their openers. While I expect things to pick up for them eventually, most of them will be tough to trust in the immediate future. Let’s take a look at what to expect from week 2. It looks like another week with a lot of guys to sit and a decent number of sleepers…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 2: @Dal.): Don’t overthink this. His volume might be capped just a bit by the Cowboys’ style of play. They slow the game down as much as possible, but I expect his talent to shine through again. He’s got too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench this week.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): Although it was his teammate and fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay who got most of the notice on Sunday, Freeman had himself a pretty solid debut as well. He looks like the clear lead back on early downs. He carried 15 times for 71 yards, and likely won’t be dealing with quite as much competition for carries from Lindsay in future weeks. The roles look like they’re going to shake out with Lindsay being more of a third down back. He doesn’t have the size to hold up to 15 carries per week over a full season. The matchup this week is a decent one. Oakland’s defense is a shell of what it once was, and Freeman should finish as a low-end RB2 in standard leagues, and a reasonable flex option in PPR leagues.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): As I just mentioned with Freeman above, Lindsay is getting a lot of love in waiver wire columns this week, but his performance against the Seahawks may be the ceiling for Phillip. At just 5’8”, 190, Lindsay isn’t built to be a primary ball carrier. He’s going to get most of his work as a 3^rd-down receiving back. His week one results were more due to him having the hot hand in the opener. He’ll be a weekly flex option in PPR leagues.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 2: @SF): LeGarrette Blount is dealing with a shoulder injury that could limit his snaps, and Kerryon gets to face a 49ers defense that is without Reuben Foster for one more week. Week 1 was less than ideal for Johnson, but I like his fantasy prospects for this week better than fellow high rookie picks Nick Chubb and Rashaad Penny. I’m still a believer that Kerryon will assert himself early in the season, and the Lions will be eager to wash the taste of their embarrassing loss to the Jets away. He’s still not more than a low-end flex option this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Allen will become the 2^nd Buffalo Bills rookie QB to make his first career start against the Chargers in as many years. Nathan Peterman famously threw 5 first-half interceptions in his start last year. While I don’t expect things to be that bad for Allen, he has a worse offensive line and arguably worse weapons than Peterman was working with in 2017. Don’t expect a usable stat line unless it’s heavily padded by rushing numbers.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 2: @NO): Chubb carried just 3 times in the season opener, compared to 22 totes for Carlos Hyde and 5 for Duke Johnson. There’s no reason to expect a big jump in workload this week, and therefore no reason to start him against the Saints. His time will come eventually, but for now the Browns are content with Hyde leading the way.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): To say that Penny was inefficient last week compared to Chris Carson would be a drastic understatement. Both players had 7 carries. Carson turned them into more than 7 yards per carry. Penny turned them into 8 yards. Penny did have some receiving game usage and will likely stay involved this week, but he got the opposite of a vote of confidence from coach Pete Carroll this week and faces a pretty feisty Bears’ defense. I’d keep him parked on the bench for this week.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): For the time being, Sutton will be nothing more than a weekly low-cost DFS dart throw. The Broncos passing attack has long been focused on Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, and week one showed that isn’t changing this season. Manny and DT combined for 21 of Denver’s 39 passing targets. Sutton will be battling for scraps most weeks. There may be some weeks where he comes up big, but it will be tough to guess when they’ll happen. His future looks bright, but his path is currently a little roadblocked.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Ridley was all but invisible in the opener. He’s not nearly high enough in the pecking order for targets to start him in any format at this point.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Moore played just 17 snaps and wasn’t targeted once in the opener. It’s a stunning turn of events for a guy who had a good camp and was a first-round draft pick. The Panthers are bound to get him more involved eventually, and may do so as early as this week with Olsen out. I’m waiting until I see it on the field to be willing to play Moore.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Like DJ Moore, Gallup was curiously under-utilized in week 1. Gallup played with the first string throughout the preseason and looked like he had the most upside of any receiver on the team, but he ran just 17 routes in week 1 and caught his only target for 9 yards. I need to see him get more playing time before I can suggest doing anything other than sitting him.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 2: @LAR): A lot was made of Christian Kirk losing out to Chad Williams for the number 2 WR job in Arizona, but it looks like both guys are going to be pretty useless for fantasy purposes for the time being. Kirk caught just 1 pass for 4 yards in the opener, and Williams didn’t catch any. The Rams boast one of the best sets of corners in the league. Keep Kirk under wraps this week.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Goedert was a big disappointment in week 1, catching just 1 of the 3 targets he saw in the opener. I thought he’d see much more work with Alshon Jeffrey sidelined, but it was not to be. I’m not that optimistic he’ll be more involved this week against a Bucs team that is more vulnerable to WRs than TEs. Tampa allowed just the 3^rd-fewest points to tight ends last year, and the most to WRs. They lost CB Vernon Hargreaves for the year in the opener, and also gave up the 3^rd-most WR points in week 1. Look for Nelson Agholor to pile up catches again, and don’t be surprised when Mike Wallace posts a surprising big game.

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Gesicki caught just 1 pass in the opener after being talked up by head coach Adam Gase in the preseason. I wouldn’t expect much more production this week at the Meadowlands.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Darnold threw a pick-6 on his first NFL pass attempt, but everything after that went his way on Monday night. The Dolphins were 29^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last year, and Darnold gets Jermaine Kearse back healthy this week. He should be able to duplicate what he did Monday, and that makes him an interesting option in 2-QB leagues or as a cheaper DFS play.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Keep an eye on the Pats injury updates here. Rex Burkhead surprisingly popped up on the injury report in the concussion protocol Wednesday. Michel has been getting in limited practices so far this week, and I think the Pats will push for him to play if Burkhead can’t get cleared. The Jaguars stingy defense has been vulnerable to RBs putting up fantasy points on them, and Michel has a chance at a solid debut. Saquon put up 128 scrimmage yards and a TD against these same Jaguars in week 1, and Michel should be the primary rusher if he’s able to play and Burkhead sits.

RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 2: @Was.): Marlon Mack has been getting in limited practices this week. If he plays, downgrade Wilkins to a bench player, but Hines should still have a role. The diminutive speedster was targeted 9 times last week in the opener, and figures to have a prominent role in the passing game regardless of Mack’s health. Wilkins remains a fairly inexpensive starting back for DFS purposes if Mack sits again, and he faces a team that was among the worst in the league in Football Outsiders’ defense DVOA stat a season ago (29^th). Hines should be rostered in just about all PPR leagues with 12 or more teams.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): I’m not telling you to start Miller this week, but if you’re in a deeper league and someone dropped him, or he’s sitting out there on the waiver wire, he’s worth a pickup. Miller did a lot of things right last Sunday in Green Bay that don’t show up on the stat sheet, but coaches love. If he continues to do those things, the targets will come. You might be able to find him at the right price in dynasty leagues if he has a couple more stat lines like he posted in week 1.

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): This is contingent on Marquise Goodwin being sidelined for week 2. Goodwin needs his blazing speed to be effective, so I doubt the 49ers will let him play through his thigh bruise if they think it hampers him at all. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday. Pettis made a spectacular TD catch filling in for Goodwin in week 1, and if he fills in again this week he likely avoids Darius Slay’s coverage. He should be an excellent cheap DFS play for week 2 if Goodwin is sidelined.

TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 2: @Chi.): Dissly had himself a game last week and is undoubtedly a hot name on the waiver wire this week. While I do believe that game will prove to be more of a fluke than a trend, I do think that Dissly has established himself as the top fantasy TE in Seattle. His main competition, Nick Vannett, has just 167 yards and 1 TD in 25 career games. Dissly had 103 and a score in just one game. He’s worth a pickup in deeper leagues, especially with so many question marks at the position this early in the season.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Thomas was targeted just twice in the opener, but he should step in as the starter with Greg Olsen sidelined by a broken foot. That should make him worth a pickup in deeper leagues even though Christian McCaffrey and Devin Funchess will demand the majority of the targets in this run-heavy offense. The matchup this week is a good one for the tight end with both of Atlanta’s starting safeties injured (Keanu Neal & Keion Jones). He’s worth a DFS dart throw in tournaments.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Andrews announced himself as a name to know for deeper dynasty leagues last week. He was quiet throughout the preseason, but he found his way to a 3-31 line in a game where the Ravens didn’t have to throw in the second half. While it’s true that Hayden Hurst has been out, and Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams were just as involved last week as Andrews, the Oklahoma product has more upside as a receiver than any of them. He’s worth keeping an eye on in dynasty formats, especially those with TE premium scoring.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. There are a lot of players who have questionable tags at this point in the week, and the last thing you want is to start an inactive player. Feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you want to yell at me or have any specific questions. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to this special DFS focused edition of the Rookie Report! I’ll have the normal Rookie Report out later this week, but this week’s Thursday night game doesn’t have any rookies you should be considering for your season-long lineup, and probably shouldn’t consider for any larger slate DFS tournaments either. With that in mind I wanted to do something a little special this week and give you a little intel on each of the rookies suiting up for the Giants and Eagles in case you’re playing the Thursday night showdown DFS slate. The prices are pretty low on most of these guys, so if you find the right one to play it can give you extra cap space to pay up for the higher priced players to go with them. Here is a rundown of each rookie playing Thursday night listed in order by their DraftKings price tag for Thursday night:

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (DraftKings Price: $6,000): The Eagles have started to make a point to get Hurts more involved with a handful of gadget plays each week, averaging about 4 snaps per game over the last 5 weeks. Given his explosive athleticism, he can turn just a few snaps into a handful of fantasy points on the right night, but he’s not priced like a player who would only play a handful of snaps. H’s priced like a quarterback. About the only real chance he has of returning value at his price tag would be if Carson Wentz gets hurt or benched early on. I wouldn’t count on either of those happening. Even if Hurts does get extended playing time, the Giants surprisingly allow the 5^th-fewest QB points per game.

Verdict: Nowhere near worth the price tag

WR John Hightower, PHI (DraftKings Price: $1,200): Hightower has played 60% of Philly’s offensive snaps in each of the last 4 weeks, and finally hit on a big play last week with a 50-yard catch against the Ravens. The expected return of DeSean Jackson is going to put a dent in his playing time this week, but I don’t expect DeSean to walk into a full-time role in his first game back. Philly may ease him back in on some sort of pitch count. Hightower’s aDOT of 21.7 for the year means the team likes to target him deep. He could produce a useful night on just a couple catches. The Giants don’t give up a ton of big passing plays, allowing just 1 completion of 40+ yards on the year, and the 8^th-fewest 20+ yard completions. Hightower obviously has a low floor, but probably the highest ceiling of any of the rookies playing on Thursday.

Verdict: Boom-or bust dart throw that I’d like a bit more if his price was below $1,000

WR Austin Mack, NYG (DraftKings Price: $400): Mack seemingly came out of nowhere last week to play 75% of the offensive snaps against Washington – 6 more snaps than Golden Tate played. He was targeted only once though, and he turned that target into just 1 yard. Washington has been one of the tougher pass defenses in the league, but that still doesn’t exactly instill confidence in Mack going forward. The Eagles are a much better matchup. They rank 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and allow the 7^th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers (half-PPR). Mack seems to have surpassed Damion Ratley and CJ Board on the depth chart and will serve as a starter this week assuming Sterling Shepard doesn’t return from IR. Darius Slay is likely to shadow Darius Slayton in this game, so that should open up some opportunities for Golden Tate and Mack. Mack wasn’t very productive at Ohio State, never reaching 400 yards in a season in college, but you could argue it was a crowded WR group. He’s a big bodied WR that profiles as more of a possession receiver than deep threat, so he’ll need to see a bit of volume to put up many fantasy points. That volume seems unlikely to come.

Verdict: Low ceiling dart throw who could fall into a handful of points

RB Jason Huntley, PHI (DraftKings Price: $200): With the absence of Miles Sanders this week, there should be some available running back touches for the Eagles. Boston Scott will certainly assume the lead back duties. When Sanders was out in week 1, Scott and Corey Clement split the snaps 38 to 25, but at that point Huntley had only been on the team for a week. He should be more up to speed now. Clement still served as the number two back last week after Sanders went down, but knowing ahead of time that Miles won’t play could mean they make a point to get Huntley into the rotation. Doug Pederson was ecstatic to claim Huntley off waivers from Detroit before the season started, and this may be the best opportunity he’s had to get him on the field. The Giants rank 15^th in run defense DVOA, and allow the 13^th-most RB points per game. Huntley is an explosive speed back (4.37 forty-yard dash at his pro day) who averaged 6 yards per carry and 44.5 catches per year in his last 3 seasons at New Mexico State. If he’s able to get on the field for 15-20 snaps, He could turn out to be a bargain at his price tag.

Verdict: My favorite play of the rookies in this matchup. Very little risk with enough upside to roll the dice.

WR Quez Watkins, PHI (DraftKings Price: $200): With Jackson expected back for week 7, Watkins will be lucky if he’s on the field for more than a couple snaps. He played a season-high 15 snaps last week, but is yet to record his first target. You probably shouldn’t bet actual money that his first target and first fantasy points will come Thursday night.

Verdict: Shouldn’t be near your lineups, even at $200 price tag

That’s all I’ve got for Thursday night. Keep in mind that the optimal Thursday lineup may not include any of these guys, but with a single-game slate everyone is in play. My overall favorite plays for this game are the two defenses, Golden Tate, Boston Scott, and Jake Elliott, but the rookies are worth looking into as well.  Make sure to check back for the rest of the Rookie Report later this week, hopefully your Thursday night slate bets are a success. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now officially hit the halfway point of the NFL season, but we’re getting close to the stretch run for the fantasy regular season. This is a good point to evaluate your team and try to make some trades to shore up your weaknesses, but hopefully you do that in a more thoughtful way than the way the Colts have handled their head coaching situation. The Colts made news this week by firing Frank Reich, and then hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. Saturday becomes the first NFL head coach ever to have zero prior experience coaching at the college or NFL level. Making things better, the team didn’t realize until after Saturday was hired that they didn’t have a single coach on the staff who had ever served as an offensive play-caller. They settled on assistant QB coach Parks Frazier to handle those duties this week. What could go wrong?

Week 9 was also a messy week for the rookies outside of the top names that have been consistently producing. Malik Willis had another shit show of a performance in his second career start, Romeo Doubs suffered what looked to be a pretty bad ankle injury, and Drake London failed to break 25 receiving yards. Cade Otton was the one bright spot among the less heralded rookies in week 9, scoring a game-winning TD as he finished as the PPR TE4 for the week. There’s another round of notable byes this week (Bengals, Jets, Ravens, and Patriots), so you could again be looking for some replacements to fill in, and there are probably some rookies among the guys you’re considering. I’m here to help talk you through the outlooks for those rookies as always.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus. 

Let’s dive into week 10…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start: 

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 10: @TB): Walker has been the starting running back in Seattle for 4 weeks now since the Rashaad Penny injury. He’s handled 19+ touches in all 4 games while scoring at least 1 TD in each game and averaging 22 PPR points per game. This is a tough matchup – Tampa Bay ranks 13th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and has allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game – but Walker’s volume is locked in. He’s not a great option for DFS lineups this week, but Walker is a rock solid RB2 who we know has top-12 upside. 

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Pierce has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 5 of his last 6 games and handled 18+ touches in all 6. Negative game script hasn’t been a problem for him, so don’t worry about the Texans being a touchdown underdog this week. The Giants rank 24th in run defense DVOA, and Pierce should see his usual workload, a workload that has made him the PPR RB12 in points per game since week 3. He’s a safe RB2 this week.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): We haven’t seen Olave put up the kind of crazy 13+ target games we saw from him earlier this season lately, but he’s now reached double-digit PPR points in 7 straight games and faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the most WR points per game in the league. Olave has a weekly WR3 floor, but he has legit WR1 upside this week in a plus matchup. Don’t overthink this one. Olave should be in your lineups. 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting: 

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): As expected, Allgeier saw his playing time take a dip with Cordarrelle Patterson back in week 9. Allgeier played his lowest snap share since week 2 at 38%, but he still handled 11 touches and tallied more than a dozen PPR points against the Chargers. During CPatt’s absence, Allgeier was a safe weekly flex play, but he becomes more of a matchup-dependent one with Patterson back. The Falcons run enough that Patterson’s return doesn’t destroy his value. Luckily Allgeier gets a good matchup this week. The Panthers rank 23rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Allgeier had his best fantasy game of the year against these Panthers with a RB13 PPR finish in week 8, albeit with Cordarrelle sidelined. I don’t know that I’d count on another finish that high from Allgeier, but he’s a useful RB3 this week if you need help there. 

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): The Steelers jettisoned Chase Claypool to the Bears during the bye week, thinning their passing target tree a bit. Claypool had drawn a 17% target share for the season, and now leaves those targets to be divvied up between Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth. The Saints haven’t been a very daunting pass defense this season since trading away CJ Gardner-Johnson and losing Marshon Lattimore to injury. They’ve allowed the 6th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, and their two starting corners with Lattimore out rank 84th and 109th in PFF coverage grade out of 113 qualified cornerbacks. There’s a chance Lattimore could return here, but it’s safe to assume he’d have some rust and he’d spend most of his day covering Diontae Johnson. That should give Pickens a huge opportunity for a statement game here. The Steelers’ passing game as a whole remains underwhelming with Kenny Pickett at QB, but Pickens is a pretty good bet for 60+ yards with upside for more in a favorable matchup. He should have a higher weekly floor moving forward with Claypool gone. 

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Dulcich is the PPR TE6 in points per game since he returned from IR in week 6. He’s been a top-12 finisher in all 3 weeks that he’s played, and he’s earned a 20% target share in each of the last two games. The Broncos get a matchup this week that they should be attacking through the air. The Titans rank 1st in run defense DVOA and 15th in pass defense DVOA. They also allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Dulcich should be a top-8 option at tight end this week.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): Otton has played 80% or more of the snaps in 4 games this season. He’s scored double-digit PPR points in 3 of them, and this week gets to face a defense that has allowed the most tight end points per game. A lot of those points allowed came in two blowup games by TJ Hockenson and Taysom Hill, but the Seahawks have allowed double-digit PPR points to an opposing tight end in 7 of their 9 games, and 8+ points to a tight end in all of them. Cam Brate may return this week, so keep an eye on reports on who will be starting at tight end for the Bucs in this one, but I think Otton has done enough to earn the job going forward, and he’s a top-10 option this week at the position if he’s going to be the starter. 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting: 

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Pickett is only on the borderline if we’re talking about superflex or 2 QB leagues. The Saints have been a middling defense against QBs, allowing the 16th-most QB points per game, but the place they’ve been hurt is by running QBs. They’ve allowed the 6th-most QB rushing yards per game, and all the QBs who have scored 17+ points against them have either thrown 3 TD passes or run for 30+ yards. Pickett has just 2 TD passes and 8 INTs for the year, so I wouldn’t count on him to throw for 3 scores, especially after the team traded away one of his weapons in Chase Claypool. Pickett did run for 37 yards in week 8 against Philly, but it was his first game with more than 20 rushing yards. If Pickett finishes in the top-20 QBs for the week, it’ll be a positive outcome for him. 

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): Since returning to the Commanders’ lineup in week 5, Robinson has been an uninspiring floor play RB3 for fantasy purposes. If you’re looking for something in the range of 15 carries for 50 yards, and maybe a target, B-Rob is a pretty good bet to do that each week. If you’re looking for more, you’re probably barking up the wrong tree. Philadelphia had been less than stellar against the run prior to last week, but with rookie defensive tackle Jordan Davis sidelined in week 10 they let Dameon Pierce run roughshod over them to the tune of 139 yards on 27 carries. Davis will be out again this week, but don’t fall into the trap of expecting a similar outing from Robinson. B-Rob hasn’t averaged more than 3.65 yards per carry in any game this season, and while he may have slightly better efficiency in this one, you’re still going to need a touchdown to get a truly useful fantasy day out of Robinson. He’s gotten at least 1 carry inside the 10-yard line in just two of the five games he’s played so far. 

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): There’s been a lot of noise made about the end of Tampa’s comeback win over the Rams last weekend, and how Leonard Fournette was frustrated to be standing on the sideline with White in the game for a crucial late drive. Some beat writers have hinted at White’s role growing here, but don’t get carried away. White’s 11 touches last Sunday were a season-high, but his 35% snap share was right in line with where he’s been over the last 6 weeks. Fournette is still getting all the goal line carries, and against the Rams he played 100% of the 2-minute offense snaps and was in a route more than twice as often as White. The Seahawks are a very favorable running back matchup – they rank 10th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9th-most RB points per game - but you’re still counting on White to do damage on 8-10 touches if you start him, and they’re not the highest value touches. White has averaged just 4.3 yards per touch on the season, and he’s found the end zone only once. View him as a very dicey RB3 option this week. 

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Pacheco has officially been the starter in the Chiefs’ backfield for two games now, and in those games, he’s scored a total of 6.2 PPR points. This is still a 3-headed rotation, and Pacheco isn’t getting the goal line carries or catching passes. Jacksonville allows the 10th-most RB points per game, but Pacheco probably isn’t going to help you much unless he gets into the end zone. 

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Wan’Dale has shown the ability to earn targets in his first few full games played, but the Giants would be wise to use a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley this week. The Texans rank dead last in run defense DVOA and have allowed over 150 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Wan’Dale’s average target depth is just 4.8 yards downfield, so he needs volume or to score a TD to have a productive fantasy day, and I expect the Giants’ passing volume to be lower than usual. Robinson is a PPR WR4 this week, but you can probably find better options. 

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): London hasn’t caught 5+ passes in a game since week 2, and he hasn’t caught for 50+ yards or scored a touchdown since week 3. The team’s low passing volume continues to be a drag on his production. The Falcons faced this same Panthers defense in an overtime shootout two weeks ago, and London finished that game with 4-31 on 5 targets. The Panthers have allowed the 9th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up out wide per Sports Info Solutions, but it's been nearly impossible to count on more than 5-6 targets for London per game. He’s a WR4 even in a strong matchup this week. 

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 10: @LV): Sam Ehlinger has started 2 games at QB for the Colts, and they haven’t been pretty for the Indianapolis offense. Pierce has averaged 2 catches for 44 yards in those two games, and this week things could get even messier with a first-time head coach and first-time play caller in charge. The Raiders’ defense is bad. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-most WR points per game, but I don’t see how you can trust Pierce in lineups this week unless you’re desperate. 

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): If Dotson is able to return in week 10, you’d be best served waiting a week before seriously considering him for lineups. I wouldn’t expect him to get a full workload in his first game back, we haven’t seen what kind of rapport he has with Taylor Heinicke, and he would be tangling with a great pair of corners in Darius Slay Jr. and James Bradberry. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Eagles have allowed the 6th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers lined up on the perimeter, where Dotson lines up 80% of the time. 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit: 

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Willis’ rushing production did take a step forward in his second NFL start (he tallied 40 rushing yards), but he looked like he didn’t belong under center in an NFL offense. In two full games played, he’s thrown for 135 yards, and lost 38 yards on sacks. If he gets to start again this week, it will come against a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in pass defense DVOA and allows the fewest QB points per game. I expect Tannehill to be back at QB this week but keep Willis away from your lineups if he gets the start again.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Cook’s role has increased in the last two weeks, seeing over 20% of the offensive snaps for just the 2nd and 3rd times this season, but that could go the other direction this Sunday with Nyheim Hines more up to speed in the offense. With his role so up in the air, Cook isn’t much of an option against a Minnesota defense that allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game. 

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Blackshear was a pleasant surprise in week 9, finishing as the PPR RB11 for the week, but most of that production came in garbage time with Baker Mayfield under center. The Panthers have already announced they’re going back to PJ Walker this week, and Chuba Hubbard looks to be on track to return to action after getting in full practices this week. Blackshear has just 1 target from Walker on the season, and his limited role may all but vanish with Hubbard back. The matchup is favorable against a bad Atlanta defense, but there isn’t enough opportunity to trust in a repeat performance here. 

RB Jerome Ford, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Ford should return from IR this week, but there just isn’t room in this backfield for him to carve out an initial role beyond special teams. I would expect Ford to be behind D’Ernest Johnson for the RB3 role in the offense. Running backs not named Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt have totaled just 41 offensive snaps for the season.  

WR Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Toure played an expanded role in Detroit last week after Romeo Doubs left with an ankle injury and Christian Watson left with a possible concussion, but the Packers leaned more into 12 personnel after those injuries, with tight end Josiah Deguara and Toure splitting that extra playing time. Watson is cleared from his concussion and should be back this week, meaning Toure is unlikely to match the 38% snap share he played last weekend. Toure is only in play if you’re desperate this week. 

WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Shaheed made some splashy big plays in his first couple games of the season, but he played a season-low 5 offensive snaps in week 9. The Steelers do give up more WR points per game than any other team in the league, but they’ve allowed just 5 plays this season of 40+ yards, and Shaheed is going to need one of those big plays to be fantasy relevant on such limited playing time. 

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Bell has yet to reach 6 PPR points in a game this season. Miami’s offense has been operating at a high level in recent weeks with Tua back at full strength, and Cleveland would be wise to attack them through the air if they need to score to keep pace. The Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, but even in games where the Browns threw the ball 35+ times, Bell has been a non-factor. We’re still waiting around for Deshaun Watson to come back for Bell to have a chance at relevance. 

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Moore’s snaps didn’t disappear in Kadarius Toney’s first game with the Chiefs – he was on the field for 26% of the offensive snaps on Sunday night – but I’d expect that number to go down as Toney gets up to speed in the offense. Moore isn’t exactly doing damage on the snaps that he is playing. He hasn’t caught a pass since week 6.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Okonkwo started off Sunday night’s game with a 48-yard reception on the first play from scrimmage, but he didn’t touch the ball again and was targeted just twice the rest of the night. He was still on the field for just 35% of the offensive snaps while fellow tight ends Geoff Swaim and Austin Hooper were both over 60%. Even if Tannehill comes back and they throw a bit more, Okonkwo remains no more than a TD dart throw. 

TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Quitoriano got the start and scored a touchdown last Thursday in his NFL debut, but it was his only target of the game as he played just 18 offensive snaps. The Giants are a middling TE defense (13th-most TE points allowed per game), but both Brevin Jordan and OJ Howard remain ahead of the rookie in the pecking order despite Quitoriano being credited with the “start” last week. 

TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 10: @GB): In the 5 games where Dalton Schultz has played more than 10 snaps, Hendershot and Ferguson have combined for 7 catches, 35 yards, and 2 TDs. Green Bay has allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points per game. Bet on one of these backup tight ends finding the end zone at your own peril. 

Rookies on Byes in Week 10: WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, WR Tyquan Thornton, NE, TEs Isaiah Likely & Charlie Kolar, BAL

Rookies Who May as Well be on Byes: RB Ronnie Rivers, LAR, RB Snoop Conner, JAX, RB Keontay Ingram, ARI, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, TE Jelani Woods, IND, TE Trey McBride, ARI, TEs Cole Turner & Armani Rogers, WAS

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Najee Harris’ continued struggles may have finally forced Mike Tomlin’s hand in the Steelers’ backfield. Tomlin hinted this week that Warren could see more touches going forward, and some local Steelers beat writers have tossed out that idea as well. Warren has averaged nearly 2 yards more per touch than Najee so far this season. I don’t think he’d continue at that efficiency level with a bigger workload, but he’s undoubtedly shown more juice than Najee this season and deserves more opportunities. The Saints are a middling run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 13th-fewest RB points per game. If you’re desperate for RB help, Tomlin is going to give Warren the chance to develop the hot hand this week, and if he does, he could provide a useful RB3 performance. 

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 10: @SF): Spiller isn’t a good option for this week against a great 49ers defense, but he’s suddenly an upside stash for deeper leagues after working his way into the RB2 role for the Chargers behind Austin Ekeler. Spiller handled 30% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts last week in a tight game with the Falcons. Sony Michel still worked as the backup in passing situations, but Spiller has the skills to earn more work there and he’s going to see a good number of opportunities in games with neutral or positive game scripts. Ekeler has played just 62.3% of the offensive snaps for the season, so Spiller could carve out a huge role if he becomes the full-time RB2. He’s free to pick up in most leagues and could wind up being a weekly RB3 option down the stretch.  

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Watson left last week’s game with a possible concussion. He was apparently cleared to return to the game, but the team held him back as a precaution. He should be a full go this week against a Dallas defense that’s been known to be aggressive in the secondary. The Packers need Watson to step up this week with Romeo Doubs sidelined, and I like his chances to pull in at least one downfield target in this one. The floor here is zero points, but Watson costs just $2,600 in DraftKings showdown contests for this game, half of what Samori Toure does, and I like Watson much more than Toure in this one. Toure has played nearly 60% of his snaps in the slot, and the Cowboys are much more vulnerable to receivers on the outside than in the slot. According to Sports Info Solutions, Dallas allows the 13th-most points per game to receivers lined up outside, and the 23rd most to receivers lined up in the slot.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): The Titans have opened the practice window for Burks to be able to return from IR, and Burks himself said he expects to be activated for week 10. You shouldn’t throw him into lineups this week, but if he’s a free agent he’s worth picking up in most leagues. The Titans are desperate for wide receiver help, and Burks could take over their WR1 role in the back half of the season. For week 10, Burks will likely be eased back in, and he faces a Denver defense that allows the fewest WR points per game and ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA. Only 1 receiver has scored 10+ points against the Broncos in the last 3 weeks. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.