Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, grueling offseason without football, but week 1 is finally upon us! For those of you who are new here, the Rookie Report is my weekly breakdown of the matchups each of the fantasy relevant rookies will face. Each week I’ll break them down into rookies to start, borderline rookies, and rookies to sit, then I’ll give you a few guys to consider as deep league fill-ins or cheap DFS tournament plays. Week 1 is always one of the toughest to project. It’s hard to know what to expect from players who have never taken a regular season NFL snap, and it’s also tough to know for sure which defenses will regress or improve from one year to the next until we see them on the field. For that reason, week 1 is going to be full of mostly guys to sit and sleepers, but I try to give a little insight as to why each week as well.
Since it’s week 1, I also have a special treat before we get into this week’s matchups. Here’s a look at my top-10 fantasy rookies for 2018:
1. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG: Barkley is poised to be the Giants’ workhorse back, and barring injury appears to be a lock to finish as one of the top-8 backs in fantasy this year in PPR leagues. He should carry plenty of value in non-PPR leagues as well.
2. Royce Freeman, RB, DEN: Freeman has come on strong through training camp and the preseason, and he is an unexpected player to see here as the #2 rookie. Nick Chubb, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel all had higher draft positions, but either due to injury or tougher competition for playing time, they all open the season in worse position than Royce. Freeman looks to be the lead back in Denver from week 1 on, and he should be a low-end RB2 in most formats. Denver’s offense should improve overall with Case Keenum under center.
3. Michael Gallup, WR, DAL: Gallup walks into a wide-open Cowboys’ WR depth chart with plenty of targets available now that Dez and Witten are gone, and he should start on the outside right away. The Cowboys will want to be run-heavy with Ezekiel Elliott, but their defense and banged up o-line could make that challenging. Gallup has WR3 upside this season.
4. DJ Moore, WR, CAR: Moore should start immediately in Carolina, but he’ll face stiffer target competition than Gallup. Greg Olsen returns, Christian McCaffrey is poised for a monster year, and Devin Funchess remains a starter after a breakout campaign in ’17. I trust that Moore is the more talented receiver of he and Gallup, but he’ll be hard-pressed to carve out a fantasy-starter kind of workload.
5. Sony Michel, RB, NE: The Patriots’ backfield is often the bane of many fantasy owners’ existence due to inconsistent usage from week-to-week, but I have faith that Michel has a big role this season. Belichick has never really invested much capital into the position. They’ve always made do with late round draft picks, cast-offs from other teams and undervalued free agents. Mike Gillislee, Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, James White, Jeremy Hill, LeGarrette Blount. None of them have cost much to acquire, which is why it stands out that the Pats used a first round pick to acquire Michel. He may start slowly as he works his way back from a preseason knee injury, but make no mistake, the Patriots think this is a special player and he’ll be involved.
6. Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET: Johnson will likely still have to work his way past Blount to be a fantasy force this year, but Blount hasn’t had much success outside of New England in his career. After investing a first round pick in a nasty run-blocking center, and trading up in the second to get Kerryon, it looks like Johnson has a chance to give the Lions the running game they’ve been seeking for most of the past decade.
7. Anthony Miller, WR, CHI: There are a ton of targets available in Chicago with a fully revamped group of pass catchers in town. Miller should be a factor early in the year, and he could really shine if Allen Robinson falters in his return from his ACL injury from last year. 800 yards and a handful of TDs would be a successful rookie campaign for the Memphis product.
8. Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA: Penny has definitely faltered in training camp after the Seahawks selected him in the first round, but he’ll get his chances as the season gets going. Seattle wants to be much more run-heavy this year, as evidenced by the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer as OC and the offseason investment in Penny and the o-line. Chris Carson will get the first crack at the job, but I’d be surprised if Penny doesn’t push for 200 carries barring an injury.
9. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE: Carlos Hyde as operated as the lead back throughout camp, and Duke Johnson’s 3rd-down role is secure, but Chubb is just too talented to keep him down for long. He’ll get his opportunities, and when he succeeds with them, he’ll get more of them. Chubb has a chance to be a fantasy force in the second half of the season.
10. Sam Darnold, QB, NYJ: Darnold is the only rookie QB slated to start week 1, and I’d fully expect him to start all season. He has a few weapons now that the Jets have realized Bilal Powell is their best RB and they’ve got Quincy Enunwa back healthy. There will be some growing pains, but Darnold has a chance to finish the year as a respectable QB2 if he hits the ground running.
That’s all for the Top-10; now let’s dig into the week 1 slate…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Barkley is the one rookie I can confidently recommend for week 1. The Giants took him 2nd overall, and they plan to use him a ton. Jacksonville’s defense is considered to be the best in the league, but they were giving to opposing RBs last year. They ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, which measures efficiency, and struggled a bit to contain backs who could catch as well. You didn’t make Barkley your first pick to sit him week one.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): Freeman draws a defense that was in the middle of the pack against the run in 2017, and they have lost much of the starting lineup that got them there. This isn’t the same Seattle defense that was feared a few years ago, and Freeman has a great shot at a successful debut. He’s an excellent flex option this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): I’d probably lean towards not playing Kerryon this week, but I’d expect he’ll at least be splitting the early down work with Blount, and the Lions are favored by nearly a touchdown. If Johnson finds the end zone, he’ll post a solid day.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 1: vs. Dal.): Moore is a flex option in deeper leagues this week. The Dallas defense could be abysmal this year, and DJ is essentially going to be the Panthers’ WR 1-A this season. 5-70 isn’t an unrealistic hope for Moore’s debut.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 1: @Car.): On the other side of this matchup, Gallup will have a chance to produce as well. The Panthers’ young secondary is decent, but nothing to be afraid of here, and I think Dallas plays from behind and throws more than they’d like. That negative game script would bode well for Gallup. I’d rather play Moore this week, but Gallup is also on the flex radar in week 1.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 1: @Det.): Darnold will be the youngest QB ever to start in week 1 of their rookie season, and he goes into Detroit as a 6.5-point underdog facing a defense that forced more turnovers last year than any teams not named the Jaguars or Ravens. He also will be without one of his starting receivers in Jermaine Kearse. It’s not a recipe for success his first time out.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 1: vs. Pit.): I love Chubb’s upside for the back half of the year, and the Steelers’ run defense hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier’s injury, but at least for week 1 it will probably be the Carlos Hyde show on early downs. Chubb may see a handful of carries, but it’s hard to predict big things with such a limited workload.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 1: @Den.): Penny will likely see a few carries, but for now it’s going to be Chris Carson leading the way for the Seahawks’ backfield, and the matchup this week is daunting if Denver is anywhere near as good against the run as they were a year ago. Steer clear of Penny this week.
RB Ronald Jones, TB (Wk. 1: @NO): This one should be pretty obvious as Jones was listed as the team’s 3rd-string back behind Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers earlier this week. Don’t overthink it.
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Trust the people telling you that James Conner is the back you want this week with Le’Veon Bell likely to miss this game. I’m curious to see how the Steelers deploy Samuels given his versatility (he played TE, RB and WR in college), but I don’t expect him to pick up much of the slack left by Bell’s absence this week.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 1: @Phi.): Ridley enters the season as the #3 receiver behind Julio and Sanu, and that likely puts him behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the target pecking order as well. That’s just too low in the food chain to trust until we see different on the field.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): While I like Kirk to finish the year as the Cardinals’ 2nd WR, his role for week 1 is foggy at best. It sounds like he will be rotating with Chad Williams and JJ Nelson, and his usage will just be too hard to predict for fantasy purposes in the opener.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Sea.): I was very tempted to list Sutton as a sleeper this week as he’s been better than expected through the preseason, but I’m just not sure there will be enough passing volume out of Denver to trust Sutton in week 1. He’s still behind Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas in the pecking order. There’s definitely upside given what he’s shown so far, but I would have a hard time trusting him in week 1.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): The Dolphins’ head coach Adam Gase has talked up the role that Gesicki will play this season, but the reality is that the rookie caught just 1 pass in the preaseason, he’s struggled as a blocker as well, and rookie tight ends rarely produce strong fantasy numbers. Also, the Dolphins haven’t had a TE reach 400 receiving yards in Gase’s two seasons as head coach. I’ll need to see it before I believe it with Gesicki.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Plays:
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): In all honesty, I trust Rex Burkhead more than Michel in week one since there is no guarantee that Sony is able to play yet, but if he goes I expect he’ll be involved. As I mentioned with Michel in my top-10 rookies, the Patriots NEVER spend resources on a running back. I think they want Sony to show why he’s the exception. He’s an intriguing risk/reward flex play for deeper leagues if he’s a go.
RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): You could certainly make a case for Hines’s teammate Jordan Wilkins as a sleeper here since it’s likely Wilkins starts on Sunday. Wilkins certainly has the higher floor, but against the Bengals’ defense, I’d rather roll the dice on the big play guy. Hines has struggled through the preseason, but Marlon Mack’s absence should open the door for him to get on the field on 3rd downs, and it only takes a couple big plays for Hines to have a huge game. He’s an explosive athlete, and one who could catch the Bengals by surprise. He’s no more than a DFS tournament punt play, but one who could pay off big.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 1: @GB): The Packers are favored by more than a touchdown in this game, and if the Bears fall behind I think Miller has a chance at a stronger than expected game. The Packers’ have had one of the worst pass defenses in the league two years running, and I don’t think they addressed it enough this offseason to make major strides. A 4-60 kind of game wouldn’t surprise me from Miller. If he finds the end zone with it, he’ll make some DFS players a little money.
WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cle.): With Le’Veon Bell sitting in week one, and the Browns boasting a stout run defense (ranked 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA last year), there are plenty of passing targets to go around for the Steelers. Cleveland’s defensive scheme under Gregg Williams was kind of a joke last year, often lining up a safety deep enough to return a punt. It helped the Browns not get killed deep, but they were roasted in the intermediate part of the field, an area where Washington excelled in his career at Oklahoma State. I’d expect Washington to play in 3-WR sets this week, and the opportunity is there for him to be a sneaky DFS dart throw.
WR TreQuan Smith, NO (Wk. 1: vs. TB): I was sleeping on TreQuan around the time of the draft, but it’s hard to overlook what he’s been doing this preseason. The Saints clearly love him, and he could wind up the long-term WR2 behind Mike Thomas. He’s impressed all preseason while Cam Meredith was sidelined. He’s got a little work to do to move up the depth chart, but he’s an excellent dynasty or deep league stash at this point in the year. It’s very possible he surpasses Meredith and Ted Ginn by the latter part of the season.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Goedert could be in line for a strong debut. The Eagles will be without Alshon Jeffrey, and his likely replacement in Mack Hollins. That really leaves just Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace as worthwhile receivers that will be available. Expect a bunch of two-TE sets from Philly on Thursday, and expect Goedert to surprise. 5-6 targets is a reasonable expectation for the former South Dakota State Jackrabbit.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Enjoy the action as the season gets underway Thursday night. Keep an eye on the injury report to make sure you don’t end up starting a player who isn’t going to suit up, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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