Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Wasn’t it great to have real live regular season NFL action back? We finally have some real game data on this year’s rookie class, and at least for one week the results were surprising. Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman performed about as expected, but everyone else was a surprise. The other standout rookies of week 1 were Sam Darnold, Phillip Lindsay, Dante Pettis, and Will Dissly. You probably hadn’t heard of at least two of those 4 prior to Sunday. As for the more heralded rookies, it was less than a memorable week 1. DJ Moore, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Rashaad Penny, Calvin Ridley, James Washington, and Dallas Goedert were all pretty quiet in their openers. While I expect things to pick up for them eventually, most of them will be tough to trust in the immediate future. Let’s take a look at what to expect from week 2. It looks like another week with a lot of guys to sit and a decent number of sleepers…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 2: @Dal.): Don’t overthink this. His volume might be capped just a bit by the Cowboys’ style of play. They slow the game down as much as possible, but I expect his talent to shine through again. He’s got too high of a ceiling to leave him on your bench this week.
Borderline Rookies:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): Although it was his teammate and fellow rookie Phillip Lindsay who got most of the notice on Sunday, Freeman had himself a pretty solid debut as well. He looks like the clear lead back on early downs. He carried 15 times for 71 yards, and likely won’t be dealing with quite as much competition for carries from Lindsay in future weeks. The roles look like they’re going to shake out with Lindsay being more of a third down back. He doesn’t have the size to hold up to 15 carries per week over a full season. The matchup this week is a decent one. Oakland’s defense is a shell of what it once was, and Freeman should finish as a low-end RB2 in standard leagues, and a reasonable flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): As I just mentioned with Freeman above, Lindsay is getting a lot of love in waiver wire columns this week, but his performance against the Seahawks may be the ceiling for Phillip. At just 5’8”, 190, Lindsay isn’t built to be a primary ball carrier. He’s going to get most of his work as a 3rd-down receiving back. His week one results were more due to him having the hot hand in the opener. He’ll be a weekly flex option in PPR leagues.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 2: @SF): LeGarrette Blount is dealing with a shoulder injury that could limit his snaps, and Kerryon gets to face a 49ers defense that is without Reuben Foster for one more week. Week 1 was less than ideal for Johnson, but I like his fantasy prospects for this week better than fellow high rookie picks Nick Chubb and Rashaad Penny. I’m still a believer that Kerryon will assert himself early in the season, and the Lions will be eager to wash the taste of their embarrassing loss to the Jets away. He’s still not more than a low-end flex option this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Allen will become the 2nd Buffalo Bills rookie QB to make his first career start against the Chargers in as many years. Nathan Peterman famously threw 5 first-half interceptions in his start last year. While I don’t expect things to be that bad for Allen, he has a worse offensive line and arguably worse weapons than Peterman was working with in 2017. Don’t expect a usable stat line unless it’s heavily padded by rushing numbers.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 2: @NO): Chubb carried just 3 times in the season opener, compared to 22 totes for Carlos Hyde and 5 for Duke Johnson. There’s no reason to expect a big jump in workload this week, and therefore no reason to start him against the Saints. His time will come eventually, but for now the Browns are content with Hyde leading the way.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): To say that Penny was inefficient last week compared to Chris Carson would be a drastic understatement. Both players had 7 carries. Carson turned them into more than 7 yards per carry. Penny turned them into 8 yards. Penny did have some receiving game usage and will likely stay involved this week, but he got the opposite of a vote of confidence from coach Pete Carroll this week and faces a pretty feisty Bears’ defense. I’d keep him parked on the bench for this week.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Oak.): For the time being, Sutton will be nothing more than a weekly low-cost DFS dart throw. The Broncos passing attack has long been focused on Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, and week one showed that isn’t changing this season. Manny and DT combined for 21 of Denver’s 39 passing targets. Sutton will be battling for scraps most weeks. There may be some weeks where he comes up big, but it will be tough to guess when they’ll happen. His future looks bright, but his path is currently a little roadblocked.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Ridley was all but invisible in the opener. He’s not nearly high enough in the pecking order for targets to start him in any format at this point.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Moore played just 17 snaps and wasn’t targeted once in the opener. It’s a stunning turn of events for a guy who had a good camp and was a first-round draft pick. The Panthers are bound to get him more involved eventually, and may do so as early as this week with Olsen out. I’m waiting until I see it on the field to be willing to play Moore.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Like DJ Moore, Gallup was curiously under-utilized in week 1. Gallup played with the first string throughout the preseason and looked like he had the most upside of any receiver on the team, but he ran just 17 routes in week 1 and caught his only target for 9 yards. I need to see him get more playing time before I can suggest doing anything other than sitting him.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 2: @LAR): A lot was made of Christian Kirk losing out to Chad Williams for the number 2 WR job in Arizona, but it looks like both guys are going to be pretty useless for fantasy purposes for the time being. Kirk caught just 1 pass for 4 yards in the opener, and Williams didn’t catch any. The Rams boast one of the best sets of corners in the league. Keep Kirk under wraps this week.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 2: @TB): Goedert was a big disappointment in week 1, catching just 1 of the 3 targets he saw in the opener. I thought he’d see much more work with Alshon Jeffrey sidelined, but it was not to be. I’m not that optimistic he’ll be more involved this week against a Bucs team that is more vulnerable to WRs than TEs. Tampa allowed just the 3rd-fewest points to tight ends last year, and the most to WRs. They lost CB Vernon Hargreaves for the year in the opener, and also gave up the 3rd-most WR points in week 1. Look for Nelson Agholor to pile up catches again, and don’t be surprised when Mike Wallace posts a surprising big game.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Gesicki caught just 1 pass in the opener after being talked up by head coach Adam Gase in the preseason. I wouldn’t expect much more production this week at the Meadowlands.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Darnold threw a pick-6 on his first NFL pass attempt, but everything after that went his way on Monday night. The Dolphins were 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last year, and Darnold gets Jermaine Kearse back healthy this week. He should be able to duplicate what he did Monday, and that makes him an interesting option in 2-QB leagues or as a cheaper DFS play.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Keep an eye on the Pats injury updates here. Rex Burkhead surprisingly popped up on the injury report in the concussion protocol Wednesday. Michel has been getting in limited practices so far this week, and I think the Pats will push for him to play if Burkhead can’t get cleared. The Jaguars stingy defense has been vulnerable to RBs putting up fantasy points on them, and Michel has a chance at a solid debut. Saquon put up 128 scrimmage yards and a TD against these same Jaguars in week 1, and Michel should be the primary rusher if he’s able to play and Burkhead sits.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 2: @Was.): Marlon Mack has been getting in limited practices this week. If he plays, downgrade Wilkins to a bench player, but Hines should still have a role. The diminutive speedster was targeted 9 times last week in the opener, and figures to have a prominent role in the passing game regardless of Mack’s health. Wilkins remains a fairly inexpensive starting back for DFS purposes if Mack sits again, and he faces a team that was among the worst in the league in Football Outsiders’ defense DVOA stat a season ago (29th). Hines should be rostered in just about all PPR leagues with 12 or more teams.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): I’m not telling you to start Miller this week, but if you’re in a deeper league and someone dropped him, or he’s sitting out there on the waiver wire, he’s worth a pickup. Miller did a lot of things right last Sunday in Green Bay that don’t show up on the stat sheet, but coaches love. If he continues to do those things, the targets will come. You might be able to find him at the right price in dynasty leagues if he has a couple more stat lines like he posted in week 1.
WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): This is contingent on Marquise Goodwin being sidelined for week 2. Goodwin needs his blazing speed to be effective, so I doubt the 49ers will let him play through his thigh bruise if they think it hampers him at all. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday. Pettis made a spectacular TD catch filling in for Goodwin in week 1, and if he fills in again this week he likely avoids Darius Slay’s coverage. He should be an excellent cheap DFS play for week 2 if Goodwin is sidelined.
TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 2: @Chi.): Dissly had himself a game last week and is undoubtedly a hot name on the waiver wire this week. While I do believe that game will prove to be more of a fluke than a trend, I do think that Dissly has established himself as the top fantasy TE in Seattle. His main competition, Nick Vannett, has just 167 yards and 1 TD in 25 career games. Dissly had 103 and a score in just one game. He’s worth a pickup in deeper leagues, especially with so many question marks at the position this early in the season.
TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 2: @Atl.): Thomas was targeted just twice in the opener, but he should step in as the starter with Greg Olsen sidelined by a broken foot. That should make him worth a pickup in deeper leagues even though Christian McCaffrey and Devin Funchess will demand the majority of the targets in this run-heavy offense. The matchup this week is a good one for the tight end with both of Atlanta’s starting safeties injured (Keanu Neal & Keion Jones). He’s worth a DFS dart throw in tournaments.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 2: @Cin.): Andrews announced himself as a name to know for deeper dynasty leagues last week. He was quiet throughout the preseason, but he found his way to a 3-31 line in a game where the Ravens didn’t have to throw in the second half. While it’s true that Hayden Hurst has been out, and Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams were just as involved last week as Andrews, the Oklahoma product has more upside as a receiver than any of them. He’s worth keeping an eye on in dynasty formats, especially those with TE premium scoring.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. There are a lot of players who have questionable tags at this point in the week, and the last thing you want is to start an inactive player. Feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you want to yell at me or have any specific questions. As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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