Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now officially hit the halfway point of the NFL season, but we’re getting close to the stretch run for the fantasy regular season. This is a good point to evaluate your team and try to make some trades to shore up your weaknesses, but hopefully you do that in a more thoughtful way than the way the Colts have handled their head coaching situation. The Colts made news this week by firing Frank Reich, and then hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. Saturday becomes the first NFL head coach ever to have zero prior experience coaching at the college or NFL level. Making things better, the team didn’t realize until after Saturday was hired that they didn’t have a single coach on the staff who had ever served as an offensive play-caller. They settled on assistant QB coach Parks Frazier to handle those duties this week. What could go wrong?
Week 9 was also a messy week for the rookies outside of the top names that have been consistently producing. Malik Willis had another shit show of a performance in his second career start, Romeo Doubs suffered what looked to be a pretty bad ankle injury, and Drake London failed to break 25 receiving yards. Cade Otton was the one bright spot among the less heralded rookies in week 9, scoring a game-winning TD as he finished as the PPR TE4 for the week. There’s another round of notable byes this week (Bengals, Jets, Ravens, and Patriots), so you could again be looking for some replacements to fill in, and there are probably some rookies among the guys you’re considering. I’m here to help talk you through the outlooks for those rookies as always.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into week 10…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 10: @TB): Walker has been the starting running back in Seattle for 4 weeks now since the Rashaad Penny injury. He’s handled 19+ touches in all 4 games while scoring at least 1 TD in each game and averaging 22 PPR points per game. This is a tough matchup – Tampa Bay ranks 13th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and has allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game – but Walker’s volume is locked in. He’s not a great option for DFS lineups this week, but Walker is a rock solid RB2 who we know has top-12 upside.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Pierce has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 5 of his last 6 games and handled 18+ touches in all 6. Negative game script hasn’t been a problem for him, so don’t worry about the Texans being a touchdown underdog this week. The Giants rank 24th in run defense DVOA, and Pierce should see his usual workload, a workload that has made him the PPR RB12 in points per game since week 3. He’s a safe RB2 this week.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): We haven’t seen Olave put up the kind of crazy 13+ target games we saw from him earlier this season lately, but he’s now reached double-digit PPR points in 7 straight games and faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the most WR points per game in the league. Olave has a weekly WR3 floor, but he has legit WR1 upside this week in a plus matchup. Don’t overthink this one. Olave should be in your lineups.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): As expected, Allgeier saw his playing time take a dip with Cordarrelle Patterson back in week 9. Allgeier played his lowest snap share since week 2 at 38%, but he still handled 11 touches and tallied more than a dozen PPR points against the Chargers. During CPatt’s absence, Allgeier was a safe weekly flex play, but he becomes more of a matchup-dependent one with Patterson back. The Falcons run enough that Patterson’s return doesn’t destroy his value. Luckily Allgeier gets a good matchup this week. The Panthers rank 23rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Allgeier had his best fantasy game of the year against these Panthers with a RB13 PPR finish in week 8, albeit with Cordarrelle sidelined. I don’t know that I’d count on another finish that high from Allgeier, but he’s a useful RB3 this week if you need help there.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): The Steelers jettisoned Chase Claypool to the Bears during the bye week, thinning their passing target tree a bit. Claypool had drawn a 17% target share for the season, and now leaves those targets to be divvied up between Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth. The Saints haven’t been a very daunting pass defense this season since trading away CJ Gardner-Johnson and losing Marshon Lattimore to injury. They’ve allowed the 6th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, and their two starting corners with Lattimore out rank 84th and 109th in PFF coverage grade out of 113 qualified cornerbacks. There’s a chance Lattimore could return here, but it’s safe to assume he’d have some rust and he’d spend most of his day covering Diontae Johnson. That should give Pickens a huge opportunity for a statement game here. The Steelers’ passing game as a whole remains underwhelming with Kenny Pickett at QB, but Pickens is a pretty good bet for 60+ yards with upside for more in a favorable matchup. He should have a higher weekly floor moving forward with Claypool gone.
TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Dulcich is the PPR TE6 in points per game since he returned from IR in week 6. He’s been a top-12 finisher in all 3 weeks that he’s played, and he’s earned a 20% target share in each of the last two games. The Broncos get a matchup this week that they should be attacking through the air. The Titans rank 1st in run defense DVOA and 15th in pass defense DVOA. They also allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Dulcich should be a top-8 option at tight end this week.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): Otton has played 80% or more of the snaps in 4 games this season. He’s scored double-digit PPR points in 3 of them, and this week gets to face a defense that has allowed the most tight end points per game. A lot of those points allowed came in two blowup games by TJ Hockenson and Taysom Hill, but the Seahawks have allowed double-digit PPR points to an opposing tight end in 7 of their 9 games, and 8+ points to a tight end in all of them. Cam Brate may return this week, so keep an eye on reports on who will be starting at tight end for the Bucs in this one, but I think Otton has done enough to earn the job going forward, and he’s a top-10 option this week at the position if he’s going to be the starter.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Pickett is only on the borderline if we’re talking about superflex or 2 QB leagues. The Saints have been a middling defense against QBs, allowing the 16th-most QB points per game, but the place they’ve been hurt is by running QBs. They’ve allowed the 6th-most QB rushing yards per game, and all the QBs who have scored 17+ points against them have either thrown 3 TD passes or run for 30+ yards. Pickett has just 2 TD passes and 8 INTs for the year, so I wouldn’t count on him to throw for 3 scores, especially after the team traded away one of his weapons in Chase Claypool. Pickett did run for 37 yards in week 8 against Philly, but it was his first game with more than 20 rushing yards. If Pickett finishes in the top-20 QBs for the week, it’ll be a positive outcome for him.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): Since returning to the Commanders’ lineup in week 5, Robinson has been an uninspiring floor play RB3 for fantasy purposes. If you’re looking for something in the range of 15 carries for 50 yards, and maybe a target, B-Rob is a pretty good bet to do that each week. If you’re looking for more, you’re probably barking up the wrong tree. Philadelphia had been less than stellar against the run prior to last week, but with rookie defensive tackle Jordan Davis sidelined in week 10 they let Dameon Pierce run roughshod over them to the tune of 139 yards on 27 carries. Davis will be out again this week, but don’t fall into the trap of expecting a similar outing from Robinson. B-Rob hasn’t averaged more than 3.65 yards per carry in any game this season, and while he may have slightly better efficiency in this one, you’re still going to need a touchdown to get a truly useful fantasy day out of Robinson. He’s gotten at least 1 carry inside the 10-yard line in just two of the five games he’s played so far.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): There’s been a lot of noise made about the end of Tampa’s comeback win over the Rams last weekend, and how Leonard Fournette was frustrated to be standing on the sideline with White in the game for a crucial late drive. Some beat writers have hinted at White’s role growing here, but don’t get carried away. White’s 11 touches last Sunday were a season-high, but his 35% snap share was right in line with where he’s been over the last 6 weeks. Fournette is still getting all the goal line carries, and against the Rams he played 100% of the 2-minute offense snaps and was in a route more than twice as often as White. The Seahawks are a very favorable running back matchup – they rank 10th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9th-most RB points per game - but you’re still counting on White to do damage on 8-10 touches if you start him, and they’re not the highest value touches. White has averaged just 4.3 yards per touch on the season, and he’s found the end zone only once. View him as a very dicey RB3 option this week.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Pacheco has officially been the starter in the Chiefs’ backfield for two games now, and in those games, he’s scored a total of 6.2 PPR points. This is still a 3-headed rotation, and Pacheco isn’t getting the goal line carries or catching passes. Jacksonville allows the 10th-most RB points per game, but Pacheco probably isn’t going to help you much unless he gets into the end zone.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Wan’Dale has shown the ability to earn targets in his first few full games played, but the Giants would be wise to use a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley this week. The Texans rank dead last in run defense DVOA and have allowed over 150 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Wan’Dale’s average target depth is just 4.8 yards downfield, so he needs volume or to score a TD to have a productive fantasy day, and I expect the Giants’ passing volume to be lower than usual. Robinson is a PPR WR4 this week, but you can probably find better options.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): London hasn’t caught 5+ passes in a game since week 2, and he hasn’t caught for 50+ yards or scored a touchdown since week 3. The team’s low passing volume continues to be a drag on his production. The Falcons faced this same Panthers defense in an overtime shootout two weeks ago, and London finished that game with 4-31 on 5 targets. The Panthers have allowed the 9th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up out wide per Sports Info Solutions, but it's been nearly impossible to count on more than 5-6 targets for London per game. He’s a WR4 even in a strong matchup this week.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 10: @LV): Sam Ehlinger has started 2 games at QB for the Colts, and they haven’t been pretty for the Indianapolis offense. Pierce has averaged 2 catches for 44 yards in those two games, and this week things could get even messier with a first-time head coach and first-time play caller in charge. The Raiders’ defense is bad. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-most WR points per game, but I don’t see how you can trust Pierce in lineups this week unless you’re desperate.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): If Dotson is able to return in week 10, you’d be best served waiting a week before seriously considering him for lineups. I wouldn’t expect him to get a full workload in his first game back, we haven’t seen what kind of rapport he has with Taylor Heinicke, and he would be tangling with a great pair of corners in Darius Slay Jr. and James Bradberry. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Eagles have allowed the 6th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers lined up on the perimeter, where Dotson lines up 80% of the time.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Willis’ rushing production did take a step forward in his second NFL start (he tallied 40 rushing yards), but he looked like he didn’t belong under center in an NFL offense. In two full games played, he’s thrown for 135 yards, and lost 38 yards on sacks. If he gets to start again this week, it will come against a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in pass defense DVOA and allows the fewest QB points per game. I expect Tannehill to be back at QB this week but keep Willis away from your lineups if he gets the start again.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Cook’s role has increased in the last two weeks, seeing over 20% of the offensive snaps for just the 2nd and 3rd times this season, but that could go the other direction this Sunday with Nyheim Hines more up to speed in the offense. With his role so up in the air, Cook isn’t much of an option against a Minnesota defense that allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game.
RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Blackshear was a pleasant surprise in week 9, finishing as the PPR RB11 for the week, but most of that production came in garbage time with Baker Mayfield under center. The Panthers have already announced they’re going back to PJ Walker this week, and Chuba Hubbard looks to be on track to return to action after getting in full practices this week. Blackshear has just 1 target from Walker on the season, and his limited role may all but vanish with Hubbard back. The matchup is favorable against a bad Atlanta defense, but there isn’t enough opportunity to trust in a repeat performance here.
RB Jerome Ford, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Ford should return from IR this week, but there just isn’t room in this backfield for him to carve out an initial role beyond special teams. I would expect Ford to be behind D’Ernest Johnson for the RB3 role in the offense. Running backs not named Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt have totaled just 41 offensive snaps for the season.
WR Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Toure played an expanded role in Detroit last week after Romeo Doubs left with an ankle injury and Christian Watson left with a possible concussion, but the Packers leaned more into 12 personnel after those injuries, with tight end Josiah Deguara and Toure splitting that extra playing time. Watson is cleared from his concussion and should be back this week, meaning Toure is unlikely to match the 38% snap share he played last weekend. Toure is only in play if you’re desperate this week.
WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Shaheed made some splashy big plays in his first couple games of the season, but he played a season-low 5 offensive snaps in week 9. The Steelers do give up more WR points per game than any other team in the league, but they’ve allowed just 5 plays this season of 40+ yards, and Shaheed is going to need one of those big plays to be fantasy relevant on such limited playing time.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Bell has yet to reach 6 PPR points in a game this season. Miami’s offense has been operating at a high level in recent weeks with Tua back at full strength, and Cleveland would be wise to attack them through the air if they need to score to keep pace. The Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, but even in games where the Browns threw the ball 35+ times, Bell has been a non-factor. We’re still waiting around for Deshaun Watson to come back for Bell to have a chance at relevance.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Moore’s snaps didn’t disappear in Kadarius Toney’s first game with the Chiefs – he was on the field for 26% of the offensive snaps on Sunday night – but I’d expect that number to go down as Toney gets up to speed in the offense. Moore isn’t exactly doing damage on the snaps that he is playing. He hasn’t caught a pass since week 6.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Okonkwo started off Sunday night’s game with a 48-yard reception on the first play from scrimmage, but he didn’t touch the ball again and was targeted just twice the rest of the night. He was still on the field for just 35% of the offensive snaps while fellow tight ends Geoff Swaim and Austin Hooper were both over 60%. Even if Tannehill comes back and they throw a bit more, Okonkwo remains no more than a TD dart throw.
TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Quitoriano got the start and scored a touchdown last Thursday in his NFL debut, but it was his only target of the game as he played just 18 offensive snaps. The Giants are a middling TE defense (13th-most TE points allowed per game), but both Brevin Jordan and OJ Howard remain ahead of the rookie in the pecking order despite Quitoriano being credited with the “start” last week.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 10: @GB): In the 5 games where Dalton Schultz has played more than 10 snaps, Hendershot and Ferguson have combined for 7 catches, 35 yards, and 2 TDs. Green Bay has allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points per game. Bet on one of these backup tight ends finding the end zone at your own peril.
Rookies on Byes in Week 10: WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, WR Tyquan Thornton, NE, TEs Isaiah Likely & Charlie Kolar, BAL
Rookies Who May as Well be on Byes: RB Ronnie Rivers, LAR, RB Snoop Conner, JAX, RB Keontay Ingram, ARI, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, TE Jelani Woods, IND, TE Trey McBride, ARI, TEs Cole Turner & Armani Rogers, WAS
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Najee Harris’ continued struggles may have finally forced Mike Tomlin’s hand in the Steelers’ backfield. Tomlin hinted this week that Warren could see more touches going forward, and some local Steelers beat writers have tossed out that idea as well. Warren has averaged nearly 2 yards more per touch than Najee so far this season. I don’t think he’d continue at that efficiency level with a bigger workload, but he’s undoubtedly shown more juice than Najee this season and deserves more opportunities. The Saints are a middling run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 13th-fewest RB points per game. If you’re desperate for RB help, Tomlin is going to give Warren the chance to develop the hot hand this week, and if he does, he could provide a useful RB3 performance.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 10: @SF): Spiller isn’t a good option for this week against a great 49ers defense, but he’s suddenly an upside stash for deeper leagues after working his way into the RB2 role for the Chargers behind Austin Ekeler. Spiller handled 30% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts last week in a tight game with the Falcons. Sony Michel still worked as the backup in passing situations, but Spiller has the skills to earn more work there and he’s going to see a good number of opportunities in games with neutral or positive game scripts. Ekeler has played just 62.3% of the offensive snaps for the season, so Spiller could carve out a huge role if he becomes the full-time RB2. He’s free to pick up in most leagues and could wind up being a weekly RB3 option down the stretch.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Watson left last week’s game with a possible concussion. He was apparently cleared to return to the game, but the team held him back as a precaution. He should be a full go this week against a Dallas defense that’s been known to be aggressive in the secondary. The Packers need Watson to step up this week with Romeo Doubs sidelined, and I like his chances to pull in at least one downfield target in this one. The floor here is zero points, but Watson costs just $2,600 in DraftKings showdown contests for this game, half of what Samori Toure does, and I like Watson much more than Toure in this one. Toure has played nearly 60% of his snaps in the slot, and the Cowboys are much more vulnerable to receivers on the outside than in the slot. According to Sports Info Solutions, Dallas allows the 13th-most points per game to receivers lined up outside, and the 23rd most to receivers lined up in the slot.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): The Titans have opened the practice window for Burks to be able to return from IR, and Burks himself said he expects to be activated for week 10. You shouldn’t throw him into lineups this week, but if he’s a free agent he’s worth picking up in most leagues. The Titans are desperate for wide receiver help, and Burks could take over their WR1 role in the back half of the season. For week 10, Burks will likely be eased back in, and he faces a Denver defense that allows the fewest WR points per game and ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA. Only 1 receiver has scored 10+ points against the Broncos in the last 3 weeks.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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