After 3 weeks of play, we can always draw some conclusions based on trends that are observed over the first few games. In this case, I've chosen a few players that have downward trends associated with their performances in Weeks 1-3. We'll see what comes to pass, but don't ignore the trends once they reach 3+ games - after a certain period of time they are statistically likely to continue or level off rather than to reverse course. Is it just about the matchups? Is it about a certain style of play or what schemes the coaches are running? Draw your own conclusions, of course, but use the information below to help with that as you see fit.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) – Surprise! Jackson finished the 2019 fantasy season as the #1 QB overall with a ridiculous 421.7 fantasy points. The next best was Dak Prescott with 348.9 points. Crazy, right? Well, so far in 2020, Jackson is the #13 QB overall with only 19.8 fantasy points per game (59.3 total). For reference, the QBs on the top like Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Prescott, and Murray are all averaging around 30 fantasy points per game through the first three games.
Week 1 (vs. CLE): 20/25, 80% comp, 275 yards, 3 TDs, 7/45 rushing, 0 TDs – 27.5 fpts
Week 2 (@ HOU): 18/24, 75% comp, 204 yards, 1 TD, 16/54 rushing, 0 TDs – 17.56 fpts
Week 3 (vs. KC): 15/28, 53.6% comp, 97 yards, 1 TD, 9/83 rushing, 0 TDs – 14.18 fpts
What information can we garner from these stats? Well, Jackson has been trending down in several categories game over game: completions, completion percentage, and passing yards. Granted the Texans and Chiefs have better passing defenses than the Browns so far this season (at #20 and #17 highest fantasy points against QBs respectively vs. #10 for the Browns), but it’s disconcerting to see him not even break into the top 10 when he was being drafted in as high as the 1st and 2nd rounds of fantasy drafts earlier this year. Ouch. All of that said, what is the prognosis for Jackson over the coming weeks? He plays @WAS in Week 4 (#14 fantasy points against QBs), vs. CIN in Week 5 (#25 fantasy points against QBS), and @PHI in Week 6 (#19 fantasy points against QBs). Does it get better? Not really... in the weeks that follow, the Ravens play PIT, IND, NE, and TEN. You are going to keep Jackson on your squad because of his rushing and big play ability, but it is impossible to ignore this downturn. Week 4 is Jackson’s chance to bust out with a big fantasy game and experts still have him on top of the QB heap, but if it is a miss as well there is something not quite right in Baltimore. Run-first is a philosophy we can deal with – run-always is a problem. Marquise Brown is also tied in to this directly with Jackson as the WR1 in Baltimore (12.6, 6.7, 2.3)
Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI) – Drake had a fabulous finish to the 2019 season. He was traded to the Cardinals before Week 9 last year and immediately made his mark on the offense, putting up 162 all-purpose yards and a TD on the ground. Later that same season in Weeks 15-17, he amassed 363 rushing yards along with 7 TDs over those 3 games. It was hard to believe, but those points were very real. Especially to fantasy team managers that were playing against Drake late in the post-season. So far this year, though, he is the #24 RB overall with 32.4 fantasy points (half PPR) which is an average of 10.8 per game. For a running back being drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round earlier this year, that is very disappointing. Let us look at the first 3 games of the 2020 season:
Week 1 (@ SF): 16/60 rushing, 1 TD, 2/5 receiving, 0 TDs – 13.5 fpts
Week 2 (vs. WAS): 20/86 rushing, 0 TDs, 2/9 receiving, 0 TDs – 10.5 fpts
Week 3 (vs. DET): 18/73 rushing, 0 TDs, 1/6 receiving, 0 TDs – 8.4 fpts
What can we learn from this information… well, his amount of touches has been consistent – averaging around 20 per game, so he has the opportunities available to him. He has not gotten very much work in the passing game with Chase Edmonds being a factor (8 receptions including 1 rec. TD in the first 3 games), but the major problem with fantasy production has been his inability to break big plays during the game. This may all change this week, of course. Going up against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 provides a terrific matchup. The Panthers are giving up 32.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. If Drake cannot snap out of this funk in Week 4, his value will plummet, and we may see Edmonds start to chip away at his touches. If I had to bet money on this matchup, though, and I basically am since I’m both playing him and playing against him in multiple fantasy matchups this week, I would say we’re about to see Drake’s biggest game of the season. Could be 15-20 fantasy points in this trend-breaker.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR) – A brand new weapon for the Panthers, Anderson had more than 100 yards in both weeks 1 and 2. The tallest of the starting receivers in Carolina at 6’3” and also coming with a bonus sub-4.4 40-yard dash that we saw often with his time on the Jets.
Week 1 (vs. LV): 6/8, 114 yds, 1 TD – 22.4 fpts
Week 2 (@ TB): 9/10, 109 yds, 0 TD – 13.4 fpts
Week 3 (@ LAC): 5/5, 55 yds, 0 TD – 8 fpts
With the Chargers focusing on taking D.J. Moore away, Anderson again took a large amount of the team’s targets (the most, actually) and was able to haul in all of them for 5 receptions. The Panthers were able to cruise to a victory using mostly Mike Davis and Joey Slye, but we should continue to see Anderson utilized in the passing game and developing more chemistry with Bridgewater from game to game. Anderson is being used constantly on this team and less of the boom/bust target he was on the Jets, so he seems to be a quality WR3 candidate going forward. His next matchup in Week 4 is against a stingy Arizona passing defense allowing only 15.5 fantasy points per game to WRs, but Week 5 looks like a much tastier matchup against the Falcons who have the 3rd worst passing D in the league.
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