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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've almost made it all the way through NFL Draft season, and Thursday night we can finally start to put all of the smokescreens, misinformation, and mock drafts behind us as we learn where these players are really going...but first, let's do just a little bit more speculating. The information you're about to read below isn't a mock draft. It isn't an indication of where these players are going to be drafted. It's simply me trying to fit the puzzle pieces together in a way that would be most beneficial to each of the players for their career development and long-term fantasy upside.

I will be posting breakdowns of the RB, WR and TE positions in the coming hours, but with the QBs in particular, a few of these landing spots have just about zero chance of actually happening without some really surprising trades. That's going to happen when a QB-needy team like Buffalo isn't a good landing spot for anyone. The Bills are going to draft a QB and will probably trade up to do it, but their weapons are so bad at this point I wouldn't want any QB saddled with that situation. With all of that in mind, here are my favorite landing spots for the top QBs in the 2018 draft.

(Player, College – Favorite Landing Spot)

Josh Rosen, UCLA - New York Giants: This landing spot would be a good one for Rosen, and for the Giants. New York is widely expected to draft Saquon Barkley at this point, but Rosen would be a better choice. The Giants don't plan on picking this high again any time soon, and Eli Manning is 37 years old and has led the team to just one winning season in the past 5 years. The time to put a succession plan in place is now.

Rosen is the safest QB in this draft, and the one who fits the Giants' offense best. He's a pure pocket passer who will play within the structure of the scheme, much like Eli, and he can throw with accuracy to all 3 levels of the field. He'll have exciting weapons in Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram that will give him QB1 upside as soon as he takes over as starter. There's been a lot of talk about Rosen's attitude and varied interests outside of football being an issue for him, but I think that's nonsense. His personality kind of reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, and that hasn't been a problem for Rodgers' game at the NFL level. As a passer, the more apt comparison is Matt Ryan. If the Giants select Rosen, I think their QB position will be secured for the next decade.

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Cleveland Browns: Mayfield's name has been popping up lately as a potential pick for the Browns at number 1, and that's who I hope they go with. If it isn't Mayfield, they should certainly go with Sam Darnold over Josh Allen. The reason I like Mayfield is because the Browns have the pieces to install more elements of a spread offense like the one Mayfield thrived in at Oklahoma.

Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku make for a formidable group of receiving threats, and Duke Johnson is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield as well. Gordon and Coleman each have experience in a spread offense from their time at Baylor. The Browns also have a veteran mobile QB on the roster in Tryod Taylor who can help Mayfield learn some of the nuance of the position at the NFL level. I would expect Tyrod to open the season as the starter, but Mayfield should take over at some point near midseason and never look back.

Sam Darnold, USC - Los Angeles Chargers: This pairing is highly unlikely to become reality unless the Chargers make a big trade up, but it's one that is fun to think about. The biggest strength of Darnold's game is his ability to make accurate throws from difficult angles when the defensive pressure causes him to throw without his usual mechanics. The two NFL QBs who do this best are Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford. Since Stafford is 30 and Rivers is going to turn 37 this year, LA is the team that will need a replacement sooner. It's hard to say how many more years Rivers will play before deciding to hang it up and spend more time with his 7 kids (seriously, he has 7 of them), but playing behind Rivers for a year or two could really help Darnold hit his ceiling as a QB.

Darnold has a ton of upside, but he has a tendency to be a bit of a gunslinger and makes some questionable decisions. Rivers would be a great mentor to help Darnold learn to rein that in a little bit, and the weapons in LA should be good for several years with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams around. It's easy to see the Favre-ian upside in Darnold, but if he doesn't improve his decision making, he could just as easily be the next Jay Cutler or worse.

Lamar Jackson, Louisville - New Orleans Saints: Jackson has more fantasy upside than any other QB in this class thanks to his rushing ability. He has the speed and elusiveness of Michael Vick, and is far more advanced as a passer entering the league than Vick was after playing in a pro-style offense under Bobby Petrino at Louisville.

The best-case scenario for Jackson would be landing on a team with a creative offensive coach who will build an offense around him to best maximize his considerable talents. There are 3 teams with coaching staffs that I would trust to do that: New England, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. The Eagles have Carson Wentz and Nick Foles still, so they don't have enough need at QB to spend the draft capital it'll take to land Jackson.

The other two teams should both be looking to life beyond their current Hall of Fame QBs. Either one would be a good landing spot for Jackson, but I give the nod to New Orleans because of the weapons he'll have to work with. In New England, Amendola is gone, Cooks is gone, Julian Edelman will be 32 years old, and Gronk is already hinting at retirement. The Saints have young stars in Alvin Kamara and Mike Thomas, and added another promising youngster in Cam Meredith. Because of that edge in surrounding talent, New Orleans is the place I most want to see Lamar.

Josh Allen, Wyoming – Pittsburgh Steelers: If NFL Draft scouts weren't so in love with size and raw arm strength from QBs, Allen to Pittsburgh might actually be realistic. Instead, the consensus is that Allen will be off the board in the top 10 picks, possibly even at number one. The Steelers, who currently pick at 28, aren't moving up to get him. Still, I think this is the spot that would best serve him in making good on his potential. Ben Roethlisberger was already talking about retirement after the 2016 season, so it's not hard to envision him walking away in the next year or two. Similarly to Allen, Roethlisberger is a big, physical, strong-armed QB who played his college ball in a smaller conference. He'd be a great player for Allen to learn from while he works on his game as the number 2 QB.

Pittsburgh is also a landing spot that wouldn't have nearly as much pressure as the other places he could go...the pressure of being a savior in Cleveland, the pressure of the media scrutiny in New York, or the pressure of having the franchise's hero QB in the front office in Denver. Buffalo is another spot that would lack that pressure, but Buffalo doesn't have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster or a winning culture. Although this landing spot won't happen, I think it would be ideal for Allen.

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State – Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals' offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has said that they will tailor the offense to fit the quarterback they end up with, but McCoy's NFL roots trace back to the vertical passing 'Air Coryell' offense and Mason Rudolph has better accuracy on the deep ball than he does on short and intermediate throws.

The Cardinals could use an upgrade in weapons, but Larry Fitzgerald and a healthy David Johnson are a good starting point. With Sam Bradford slated to start, Rudolph likely will get some action this year when Bradford inevitably misses games. Rudolph is the best QB in the draft after the group of guys expected to go in the first round.

Kyle Lauletta, Richmond - New England Patriots: Lauletta is accurate and is a quick decision maker that really fits what the Patriots' offense does. His arm strength is questionable, but so was Brady's when he came into the league. The things Lauletta does well are a great fit for the scheme the Pats already run. He's also great in the play-action game, makes good decisions, and maneuvers the pocket very well while going through his progressions. I fully believe Brady will play out the two years remaining on his contract before he retires, and drafting Lauletta would allow for a seamless transition when that happens. He's got the upside to be a franchise QB.

Luke Falk, Washington State – Washington Redskins: Falk has a bit of a transition and learning curve ahead of him after playing his college career in Mike Leach's 'Air Raid' offense which is pretty much exclusively a shotgun spread offense. Playing under center and learning more pro concepts will be important parts of a successful transition. Falk lacks the arm strength to throw deep consistently, and current Washington starter Alex Smith is usually too risk averse to go deep himself, but has managed to put together a strong NFL career despite that. Smith is the ideal player for Falk to learn from as he makes the transition, and with Smith being almost 34 years old, he's a player Falk could supplant as starter in a couple years. He has the upside to be a similar game-managing starting QB who can win if surrounded with the right pieces and scheme.

That's all I've got for the QBs. I'm sure you'll disagree with at least some of what I've said above. Don't be a stranger; reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Be sure to check out the landing spot pieces on the RB, WR, and TE positions as well. They're sure to have just as many things you disagree with as this one. Enjoy the draft!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

14 Fantasy Points

Through Sunday, week 11's top TE scored just 14 points, and it's courtesy of old man Antonio Gates - owned in a whopping 3% of leagues. This season's volatility at the tight end position continues week after week. In the top 10 alone, we had Robert Tonyan (0% owned) at TE3, Ed Dickson (4% Owned) at TE7 and Matt Lengel (0% Owned) at TE10. Even top guys aren't guaranteed a respectable floor, as we saw Zach Ertz turn in a 1.5 point performance as the 30th best TE this week. Ertz wasn't alone - Trey Burton, Kyle Rudolph and Jimmy Graham all turned in scores either tied with Ertz or lower than him. I wish I knew how to see stuff like this coming - but the TE position has been so damn chaotic, it's impossible to predict what random guys will do well one week, and which ones will lay an egg. It's a position with a floor of basically nothing, and no players seem to be exempt from this. Perhaps the notion of eliminating the TE as an exclusive position isn't as crazy as it first sounded.

7 Wins in a Row

The Houston Texans started the season 0-3 and have followed it up with 7 wins in a row, becoming the first team since 1970 to go on a roll like that after such a bad start. During that streak, they've only faced two teams that were over .500 going in to the game - Miami in week 8 and Washington yesterday. Needless to say, the Texans have had it easy, and will continue to have an easy time with 4 of their last 6 games at home. Their toughest game remaining will be the Colts in week 14. The Texans are currently giving up the 6th fewest points and 7th fewest yards to opposing offenses, while keeping their offense in the top half of the league in both categories (despite the offense scoring over 23 points just twice this season).  Aside from J.J. Watt on defense, there are no real stand-outs on the Texans. Deshaun Watson, who was very impressive in 6 starts last year, has come back down to earth. He does have a few things going for him, however. First, his completion percentage is up, his yards per attempt is the same as last year, and he's throwing interceptions at a much lower rate than he was last year. His touchdown numbers have merely come back to earth - it's hard to keep throwing a TD in 9.3% of your passes, like he did last year.

27 Carries

A player getting 27 carries is usually the sign of a running back dominating the carries on their team, but this time it's a lot different. The Baltimore Ravens went into the bye week and announced that Joe Flacco was hurt - and they emerged with what seems like a completely different offense. Lamar Jackson (27 carries) and UDFA Gus Edwards (17 carries) combined for 232 yards on 44 rushes in a grand display of helping absolutely no one in fantasy football. Jackson's 27 carries broke the old QB record of 22, held by famously "awesome" QB Tim Tebow. Running the ball this many times by a QB is not a recipe for long term success, but it does go a long way to silence the talk about John Harbaugh being on the hot seat in Baltimore.  The QB situation is very muddy for the Ravens now, as it seems like Flacco will start if he's healthy, but there's no real indication what his timetable might be. I suppose it's time to abandon all hope, ye owners of Ravens wide receivers. Also, can someone please explain where the hell did Gus Edwards came from?

1-4 When Gaining 500+ Yards

The 2018 Tampa Bay Buccaneers deserve strong consideration for this year's dumpster fire of a team. Since their Fitzmagical start, they've just won one game - an OT game against the Browns in Week 7. Throughout the course of the season, the Bucs have racked up the most yards on offense in the league and they are on pace to throw for 5993 yards, which would be a record if just one person threw all those passes. Instead, they've had a QB shuffle all season, with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combining for 23 picks through 10 games. With all those turnovers, it's no wonder that the Bucs are giving up the most points in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. The turnovers are also the reason that they've only won 1 of their 5 games where they gained over 500 yards.  The defense is also contributing fuel to the fire, giving up a touchdown on 88.9% of their opponent's red zone trips. This team just has some of the most extreme stats in the league, and clearly can't get their shit together - however it's great fun for those of us who have a Bucs WR on our fantasy team.

604 Points

The Saints are on pace to score over 600 points this season and could approach or even break the 2013 Denver Broncos record of 606. This is all led by Drew Brees having one of his best seasons ever. He currently leads the league in completion percentage at 76.9%, as well as interceptions with just 1. The completion percentage is set to smash his previous record (and NFL record) of 72.0%, which he set just last year. In fact, Brees has 9 of the top 40 NFL passing seasons by completion percentage, including 2018. It's absurd that this man hasn't won an MVP award, but that just goes to show the talent across the rest of the league. As of Monday, before the epic MNF matchup, Patrick Mahomes led the MVP odds at -125, with Brees trailing him closely at +150. That's good money for Brees, if you ask me. I think the voters will give Brees a lifetime achievement award this season, especially if his team can lock up the #1 seed in the NFC, which is a real possibility given their remaining schedule.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve found our way to the fantasy playoffs…man did this season fly by. Hopefully your teams are still alive and kicking, and if they are, you’ve probably gotten some help from a rookie along the way. Each week more rookies have put their imprint on this season and the list of useful first year guys continues to grow. In week 13 it was Justin Jackson, Dante Pettis and Jeff Wilson Jr busting onto the scene. These one-week studs can be hard to trust with your season on the line this week, but the Rookie Report is here to help you sort it all out. Keep in mind that any players at the same position and under the same header are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 14…

Rookies to Start:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Mayfield has been playing at a high level over the last month plus, and the Panthers have been scuffling in a big way. Baker’s final stat line wasn’t pretty last week, but he had a strong second half after an abysmal first. Carolina has been giving up 23.5 points per game to opposing QBs over the past 5 games, and have let 4 of them reach 22 or more (all point totals and rankings are in PPR scoring format). The Panthers have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game on the year, and rank just 28^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’d expect Mayfield to finish the week as a top-10 performer at the position.

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 14: @Was.): As usual, you don’t need me to tell you to start Barkley. He should be a chalk play in DFS cash games this week as well. All you really need to know is that the 4-win Giants area 3.5-point favorite on the road. Washington is in shambles right now and Saquon should run wild on them.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Lindsay has scored in double-digits in every game this season that he wasn’t ejected from, but he’s really hit his stride lately. He’s been averaging 19.5 fantasy points over the past 6 games with 7 rushing scores in that span, and his top 2 rushing yardage totals of the year came in the past two weeks. The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites this week on the road against the 49ers, so game script should keep Lindsay running, and running well. You can’t sit him this week.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): I was tempted to list Chubb as a borderline option this week due to the tough matchup, but couldn’t bring myself to do it. His use as a receiver has kept him useful even when he hasn’t had big rushing days. The Panthers allow the 5^th fewest RB points per game and rank 8^th in run defense DVOA, but Chubb has had just one game outside the top-20 RBs since becoming the unquestioned starter in Cleveland. The upside is too good to leave sidelined.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 14: @Mia.): The Pats are heavy favorites in Miami this weekend, and the Dolphins have coughed up the 7^th-most RB points per game on the year. The return of Rex Burkhead might limit Michel’s upside just a bit, but he still handled 17 carries last Sunday with the Patriots up most of the day. If the workload is similar this week, and it should be, the Georgia alum should have a strong RB2 finish.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): This will be an interesting week for Jackson. Kansas City has allowed the 5^th-most QB points per game on the year, but they rank a passable 13^th in pass defense DVOA and Lamar hasn’t reached 180 passing yards in any of his 3 starts and has just 1 passing TD total in those games. His rushing yards give him a solid weekly floor, especially with the Chiefs ranking dead last in run defense DVOA, but he’ll need a more productive passing day than he’s had so far to hit his ceiling. He’s a risky QB1 streamer in deeper leagues, but a solid QB2.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): As I just mentioned above, the Chiefs rank dead last in the league in run defense DVOA. Edwards provides nothing in the passing game and the Chiefs are a TD-favorite, but the Ravens with Lamar Jackson under center aren’t going to abandon the run game even if they fall behind. With 61 carries and 315 rushing yards in the last 3 weeks, Edwards should be a high-floor flex play this week who will pleasantly surprise if he finds the end zone. He remains a better play in non-PPR formats.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 14: @Dal.): The workhorse usage continued for Adams in week 13, his second straight game with 20+ carries, but like Gus Edwards he’s been a non-factor in the passing game. Dallas is a tough matchup, ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 8^th-fewest RB points per game. He’s still in play as a flex option, but I’d be hopeful I have better options at the RB1 and RB2 spots.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 14: vs. Cin.): Jackson became fantasy relevant at just the right time to showcase his skills. There aren’t many matchups better than the one he faces this week. Melvin Gordon will be sidelined again, and Jackson was far more effective last week than Austin Ekeler has been in a lead back role. Coach Anthony Lynn claimed Ekeler is worn down at this point of the season, and hinted that Jackson would have a bigger role moving forward until Gordon returns. Cincy ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA, and has allowed more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. In the past 7 games, the Bengals have given up 145 rushing yards per game to RBs along with 11 rushing TDs. There’s risk here since we don’t really know how the split will look between Jackson and Ekeler, but Jackson has the upside to finish the week as a top-10 back.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 14: @Oak.): Samuels should have a big opportunity this week with James Connor out, but head coach Mike Tomlin has stated it will be a running back by committee game plan with Samuels and vet Stevan Ridley. Samuels is more likely to catch passes than Ridley, but Ryan Switzer may also pick up some of the dump offs vacated by Conner. The Raiders rank 31^st in run defense DVOA, but only the Vikings run the ball on a lower percentage of their offensive plays than the Steelers. Overall, Samuels makes for an intriguing flex option with plenty of PPR upside, but I think he’s riskier than Jackson this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Somehow Cleveland ranks an impressive 4^th in pass defense DVOA, but still allows the 8^th-most WR points per game. Although his production has been a little uneven, Moore’s usage has been consistent. He’s been targeted at least 8 times in each of the past 3 games. With Greg Olsen done for the year, Moore and Christian McCaffrey are the two focal points of this passing game. Moore is a solid WR3 this week.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): With the news Wednesday night that Emmanuel Sanders is done for the year with an Achilles tear, Sutton suddenly becomes the de facto WR1 in Denver. He’s posted 78+ receiving yards in each of his past 3 road games, and saw a career-high 7 targets last Sunday before Sanders was hurt. The 49ers rank 26^th in pass defense DVOA. He’s a safe bet for 7+ targets again this week and should be a legitimate WR3 play this week even in this lackluster passing attack.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): There isn’t much to say about Ridley except that he’s going to be a boom or bust option once again this week. He lives on the WR3 borderline. Green Bay has been mediocre against WRs, allowing the 9^th-most points per game to the position, and this one feels like it could be a shootout between 2 teams mired in disappointing seasons. Keep an eye on the weather report for this one. If it’s going to be bitter cold, I’d probably shy away from Ridley a bit, but his usual upside is there.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): In the last 4 road games that Smith has started in, he has totaled 6 catches for 62 yards with zero scores. That’s not exactly impressive, but I like his chances to have his best road game of the season this week. Tampa allows the 3^rd-most WR points per game and ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA. The Saints’ passing attack will be looking to get right this week after laying an egg in Dallas last Thursday, and the Bucs are as good a matchup to do that against as any. Smith should be closer to full health after being a non-factor last week. Tre’Quan remains risky, but he’s a fun option if you’re feeling lucky.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 14: @KC): If you’re scrounging the waiver wire this week for a TE (Olsen owner, worried about questionable tag on Ebron, not enthused about Brate, Burton, or Hooper), Andrews is worth a look this week. He’s quietly posted 121 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks with Lamar Jackson at QB, and Kansas City allows more TE points per game than any other team. They’ve given up 85+ receiving yards to TEs in 6 of their 12 contests, and have given up 30+ fantasy points and multiple scores to tight ends in each of the last 2 games. The floor is low, but Andrews seems to have emerged as the top TE target in Baltimore and has as good a matchup as possible.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): The matchup with the Lions is an OK one for Rosen. The Lions have given up an average of 2 passing TDs per week, but the volume just isn’t there for Rosen to be useful, and he just lost his most productive receiver to injured reserve (Christian Kirk). The Lions have held 6 of the 12 QBs they’ve faced to 230 or fewer passing yards. I’d expect Rosen to make it 7 of 13.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Darnold will likely return to the starting role this week, but this is not the matchup to roll the dice on him. The Bills rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA and no team in the league has allowed fewer QB fantasy points. Just one QB they’ve faced in their past 10 games has topped 15 points, and 6 of them were held to 10 or fewer.

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Ari.): At 4-8, the Lions have no reason to rush Kerryon back into action. He’s currently listed as doubtful, so it’s probably a moot point to even list him here. If he is active, I’d expect the Lions to really limit his playing time. I’d avoid him this week.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Penny has made the most of limited opportunities in recent weeks with 223 rushing yards on 31 carries in the past 4 weeks, but the Vikings are stingy against the run and rank 9^th in run defense DVOA. I’d have some interest in Penny as a sleeper if he were being used as a receiver, but he has zero targets in those 4 games. The Vikings do rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to backs. There just isn’t enough upside in Penny to take a shot this week.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Hines was targeted a surprising 9 times last week and caught all of them, but I’d be stunned if that happens again. His usage remains wildly inconsistent, and the Texans rank 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to RBs. Hines provides little in the run game, and needs to make a splash as a receiver to be useful. This isn’t a great spot to bet on him doing that.

RB Chase Edmonds, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Don’t expect a repeat of the game Edmonds posted in week 13. He saw just 5 carries to 20 for David Johnson. I would expect a similar split this week…I just wouldn’t expect Edmonds to be as efficient with those limited touches this week.

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Pettis had a blowup game last weekend, but the Broncos have a strong pass defense. They rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA, and Marquise Goodwin should be back this week. The 49ers should be passing plenty, so Pettis is worth consideration in deeper leagues, but for most formats there’s too much at stake to count on a repeat performance by Pettis.

WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 14: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside here, but your guess is as good as mine when it comes to which guy will make good on that upside. The Falcons rank an abysmal 31^st in pass defense DVOA, but have been mostly burned by RBs and TEs. I’d expect a lot of Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham this week. ESB and MVS are both too risky to roll with in the fantasy playoffs.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 5^th-fewest WR points in the league, and Coutee is battling his 3^rd hamstring injury of the season. It kept him out of last week’s game against Cleveland, and even if he’s able to play this week he’ll likely be the 3^rd option in the passing attack behind Nuk Hopkins and DT.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): With Jordy Nelson back at full strength, Ateman’s opportunity pretty much dried up. The Raiders would be smart to let the youngster get some valuable experience in a lost season, but it looks unlikely that Gruden will allow that. You can’t trust Ateman in any format this week.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The return of Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder should render Quinn irrelevant even if he is able to play this week. That duo will handle the majority of the targets that Quinn can compete for. It’s also hard to count on any passing game target in an offense that is quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): The Bills rank 2^nd in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to TEs. They’ve given up fewer than 2 TE points four times, and fewer than 9 points seven times. Herndon’s had some nice games along the way, but I wouldn’t want to bank on him finding the end zone in Darnold’s first game back on the field.

TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 14: vs. Ind.): Thomas is a TD dart throw facing a team that has given up 3 tight end scores all year. Thomas has been a pretty good TD bet lately, catching 4 of them in his past 5 games, but he’s posted just 16.8 total points in the 8 games he didn’t find the end zone. A goose egg would be tough to swallow in a playoff game.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Allen has a consistently low floor, but he’s shown the upside with his running ability over the past few weeks. The removal of Kelvin Benjamin could be addition by subtraction for the Bills’ pass attack. The Jets have allowed 5 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced to reach 20 fantasy points, and another made it to 19. Allen is a decent QB2 streamer in a solid matchup.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr., SF (Wk. 14: vs. Den.): Wilson caught 8 passes in his first meaningful game action of the season, and he should see more work going forward. Matt Breida is out this week, and the Broncos rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing RBs. He should be in play as a flex option in PPR formats. I’d expect Alf Morris to be active and be part of the game plan, but Wilson will be the better fantasy option of the 2.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): If you’re desperate at RB, you could do worse than take a shot on Freeman finding the end zone this week. He’s found the end zone in half of the games he’s played this season, and the Broncos should be able to control this game or at least keep the game script neutral. The Niners are just a middling run defense, ranking 16^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 14: @GB): This is the first time in 4 weeks that Smith actually has a decent matchup after squaring off against the Cowboys, Saints and Ravens over the past 3 weeks. This week he faces the Packers, who rank 27^th in run defense DVOA. Smith hasn’t exactly gotten a lot of run with 17 carries and 5 targets in his past 3 games, but Tevin Coleman hasn’t gotten that much more with 22 carries and 10 targets in that span. Smith is only really in play in the deepest of leagues, but I expect him to have the best game he’s had in over a month.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Callaway’s turnaround since the first half of the season has been stark. In the first 6 games of the year, he caught just 15 of 40 targets for 186 yards and 1 TD. In the past 6, he went 18-186-2 on just 26 targets. The volume hasn’t been great, but the efficiency has been solid. The targets will come if he continues to play this well. Carolina has allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game, and I’m confident Callaway will see 6+ targets in this one. A WR4 week is a realistic hope for the rookie in this one.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. LAR): It appears likely that the Bears will get Mitch Trubisky back this week, and the Rams have struggled to contain ancillary receivers this season. They rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs other than the #1 or #2 guy (A-Rob & Gabriel). The Bears love to spread the ball around a bit, so Miller is a volatile option, but the upside is there for deeper leagues.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Phi.): Gallup finally seems to have emerged as the clear WR2 in Dallas after seeing inconsistent targets and playing time for much of the year. The Amari Cooper trade seems to have crystallized the receiver depth chart. Cooper will continue to be the lead guy, but Gallup showed last Thursday he has some upside as well. The Eagles allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game and rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing #2 WR. Cooper is still the obvious play here, but Gallup is intriguing against the banged up Eagles’ secondary as well.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): The Jets have allowed the 4th-most WR points per game and rank just 18^th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. The deep ball is Foster’s bread and butter. His target share should increase with Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes kicked to the curb. He’s worth a stash in deeper dynasty leagues, and is worth looking at as a punt play in DFS tournaments.

WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 14: @SF): Hamilton is more of a stash than anything at this point. With Emmanuel Sanders done for the year (and possibly part of next year), Hamilton should be on the field a lot more going forward. The Broncos have a low volume passing attack, so it would make sense to take a wait-and-see approach to figure out how the targets break down going forward.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 14: @Cle.): Thomas managed to pull in 5 catches after Greg Olsen got hurt last weekend, and the Browns allow the 6^th-most TE points per game. Tight ends are averaging 75 yards per game with 4 TDs against Cleveland in the past 4 games. We saw Thomas as a starter earlier this season when Olsen was hurt, and his production was underwhelming, but there’s a chance he’s more useful in this go-round. He’s worth consideration as a bargain basement DFS option.

TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 14: @TB): The Buccaneers have given up 9 or more TE points in 11 of their 12 games this season. Arnold has been ascending over the past few weeks. Ben Watson has gone 2-21 on just 4 targets over the past 4 weeks while Arnold has gone 10-115-1 on 13 targets in that same span. Arnold is the guy to take a shot on here if you’re going to target the Bucs porous TE defense.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week to make sure your guys are playing. The last thing you want this week is to put up a goose egg from a player because you forgot to check his status on game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

18 QB ADP

If you combine the top 5 QBs so far this week – Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes and Case Keenum – you have an average ADP of QB 18. So much for expert draft advice, right? All 5 players scored at least 28 points, 3 TDs and 300 passing yards. All of them, except for Mahomes, were not expected to be fantasy studs, and were not drafted to be a main starter. Lamar Jackson is the highest of the remaining 4 at QB14, and he had the best game out of all of them. Jackson managed to log the very first perfect QB rating game in franchise history. Even more impressive, Red Zone channel took a break from a competitive game just to show us his first incompletion. I suppose this all goes to show that drafting QBs early in a single QB league is mostly pointless. Case in point – Andy Dalton had over 400 yards passing. This is why I like superflex leagues!

6 of the top 25 Fantasy Players

Waiver wires will be hopping this week, with people racing to pick up all of the forgotten, unknown and surprise players who had big games in Week 1. 6 of the top 25 fantasy performers so far in Week 1 are owned in 10% of leagues or less. Everyone in the top 25 scored over 20 points this week, and you’re sure to see names like DJ Chark (2% owned), Phillip Dorsett (4% owned) and John Ross (9% owned) pop up on waiver articles, not to mention Marquise Brown, who’s only owned in 31% of Yahoo leagues. A few QBs wind up in this niche as well, like Case Keenum, Andy Dalton and Marcus Mariota. They are a bit less relevant, however you may want to consider picking up one of them if you relied on Cam Newton, Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield in Week 1, all of whom scored 12.4 points and under.

10 WRs owned in 100% of Leagues

It was a rough Sunday for the top end of the fantasy world. In Yahoo, there are 10 wide receivers who are owned in 100% of leagues (2 more play on Monday night), and their average points scored was a meager 8.1. Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper were the only ones with a respectable game of 100 yards and 1 TD.  6 of the 10 players were under 8 points. In fact, if you expand this field to the top 25 by ownership percentage, only one player, TY Hilton, broke the 20-point barrier. The average total of the top 25 was still only 8.9, so it’s not like there was a lot of help among all the players who were drafted to actually help you win games. Who was helping win games? 6 of the top 10 point scorers at WR are owned in 50% of leagues or less, with 4 of those players in just the single digits.

4 Rookies Over 100 Receiving Yards

There were 4 rookies who managed to break the 100-yard mark on Sunday. Marquise Brown did it early after just two TD catches of 47 and 83 yards in the first quarter of his game. Titans Rookie A.J. Brown had 3 catches, but one was for 47 and the another was for 51 yards. OK, so he managed to just match the 100-yard mark and not pass it, but hey, it’s nice to finally see a deep threat in Tennessee, something that Marcus Mariota probably has never had. Terry McLaurin of the Redskins led his team in receiving with 125 yards. You may remember him from me telling you to draft him as a sleeper, just before I picked the Redskins to have fewer victories than the Giants. Rounding out the rookie group is T.J. Hockenson, who had 6 for 131 and a TD, leading his team in receiving and leading all tight ends (so far) this week in fantasy with 19.1 points. An honorable mention goes to Devin Singletary, who had 98 yards from scrimmage and averaged nearly 11 yards per touch. If he had gotten more than a measly 9 touches, he certainly would have broken the century mark.

17 Players at 100 Rec Yards

So far in Week 1, 17 players have matched or eclipsed the 100 receiving yards mark. Only 5 of those players are owned in 90% or more of Yahoo leagues. All these players average out for an ownership of just 55%. Does this mean anything? Not really, but it illustrates that the NFL is usually chaos, and Week 1 doubly so. Early season waivers are as important as ever this year, but it’s also important to remember to be patient with the players that you drafted high. Many of these performances are flukes, some of them are the start of trends, and some of them are introductions to future superstars. If I could tell you exactly which is which, I’d be in Vegas getting banned from various sports books. I’ll just leave you with this last nugget – Kyler Murray bringing his team back to get a tie with the Lions is the best result that a rookie QB has had in Week 1 since David Carr got a win in 2002. Let’s hope for all our sakes that Murray can be better than Carr’s career 29% win rate.