Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've almost made it all the way through NFL Draft season, and Thursday night we can finally start to put all of the smokescreens, misinformation, and mock drafts behind us as we learn where these players are really going...but first, let's do just a little bit more speculating. The information you're about to read below isn't a mock draft. It isn't an indication of where these players are going to be drafted. It's simply me trying to fit the puzzle pieces together in a way that would be most beneficial to each of the players for their career development and long-term fantasy upside.
I will be posting breakdowns of the RB, WR and TE positions in the coming hours, but with the QBs in particular, a few of these landing spots have just about zero chance of actually happening without some really surprising trades. That's going to happen when a QB-needy team like Buffalo isn't a good landing spot for anyone. The Bills are going to draft a QB and will probably trade up to do it, but their weapons are so bad at this point I wouldn't want any QB saddled with that situation. With all of that in mind, here are my favorite landing spots for the top QBs in the 2018 draft.
(Player, College – Favorite Landing Spot)
Josh Rosen, UCLA - New York Giants: This landing spot would be a good one for Rosen, and for the Giants. New York is widely expected to draft Saquon Barkley at this point, but Rosen would be a better choice. The Giants don't plan on picking this high again any time soon, and Eli Manning is 37 years old and has led the team to just one winning season in the past 5 years. The time to put a succession plan in place is now.
Rosen is the safest QB in this draft, and the one who fits the Giants' offense best. He's a pure pocket passer who will play within the structure of the scheme, much like Eli, and he can throw with accuracy to all 3 levels of the field. He'll have exciting weapons in Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram that will give him QB1 upside as soon as he takes over as starter. There's been a lot of talk about Rosen's attitude and varied interests outside of football being an issue for him, but I think that's nonsense. His personality kind of reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, and that hasn't been a problem for Rodgers' game at the NFL level. As a passer, the more apt comparison is Matt Ryan. If the Giants select Rosen, I think their QB position will be secured for the next decade.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Cleveland Browns: Mayfield's name has been popping up lately as a potential pick for the Browns at number 1, and that's who I hope they go with. If it isn't Mayfield, they should certainly go with Sam Darnold over Josh Allen. The reason I like Mayfield is because the Browns have the pieces to install more elements of a spread offense like the one Mayfield thrived in at Oklahoma.
Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku make for a formidable group of receiving threats, and Duke Johnson is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield as well. Gordon and Coleman each have experience in a spread offense from their time at Baylor. The Browns also have a veteran mobile QB on the roster in Tryod Taylor who can help Mayfield learn some of the nuance of the position at the NFL level. I would expect Tyrod to open the season as the starter, but Mayfield should take over at some point near midseason and never look back.
Sam Darnold, USC - Los Angeles Chargers: This pairing is highly unlikely to become reality unless the Chargers make a big trade up, but it's one that is fun to think about. The biggest strength of Darnold's game is his ability to make accurate throws from difficult angles when the defensive pressure causes him to throw without his usual mechanics. The two NFL QBs who do this best are Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford. Since Stafford is 30 and Rivers is going to turn 37 this year, LA is the team that will need a replacement sooner. It's hard to say how many more years Rivers will play before deciding to hang it up and spend more time with his 7 kids (seriously, he has 7 of them), but playing behind Rivers for a year or two could really help Darnold hit his ceiling as a QB.
Darnold has a ton of upside, but he has a tendency to be a bit of a gunslinger and makes some questionable decisions. Rivers would be a great mentor to help Darnold learn to rein that in a little bit, and the weapons in LA should be good for several years with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams around. It's easy to see the Favre-ian upside in Darnold, but if he doesn't improve his decision making, he could just as easily be the next Jay Cutler or worse.
Lamar Jackson, Louisville - New Orleans Saints: Jackson has more fantasy upside than any other QB in this class thanks to his rushing ability. He has the speed and elusiveness of Michael Vick, and is far more advanced as a passer entering the league than Vick was after playing in a pro-style offense under Bobby Petrino at Louisville.
The best-case scenario for Jackson would be landing on a team with a creative offensive coach who will build an offense around him to best maximize his considerable talents. There are 3 teams with coaching staffs that I would trust to do that: New England, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. The Eagles have Carson Wentz and Nick Foles still, so they don't have enough need at QB to spend the draft capital it'll take to land Jackson.
The other two teams should both be looking to life beyond their current Hall of Fame QBs. Either one would be a good landing spot for Jackson, but I give the nod to New Orleans because of the weapons he'll have to work with. In New England, Amendola is gone, Cooks is gone, Julian Edelman will be 32 years old, and Gronk is already hinting at retirement. The Saints have young stars in Alvin Kamara and Mike Thomas, and added another promising youngster in Cam Meredith. Because of that edge in surrounding talent, New Orleans is the place I most want to see Lamar.
Josh Allen, Wyoming – Pittsburgh Steelers: If NFL Draft scouts weren't so in love with size and raw arm strength from QBs, Allen to Pittsburgh might actually be realistic. Instead, the consensus is that Allen will be off the board in the top 10 picks, possibly even at number one. The Steelers, who currently pick at 28, aren't moving up to get him. Still, I think this is the spot that would best serve him in making good on his potential. Ben Roethlisberger was already talking about retirement after the 2016 season, so it's not hard to envision him walking away in the next year or two. Similarly to Allen, Roethlisberger is a big, physical, strong-armed QB who played his college ball in a smaller conference. He'd be a great player for Allen to learn from while he works on his game as the number 2 QB.
Pittsburgh is also a landing spot that wouldn't have nearly as much pressure as the other places he could go...the pressure of being a savior in Cleveland, the pressure of the media scrutiny in New York, or the pressure of having the franchise's hero QB in the front office in Denver. Buffalo is another spot that would lack that pressure, but Buffalo doesn't have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster or a winning culture. Although this landing spot won't happen, I think it would be ideal for Allen.
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State – Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals' offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has said that they will tailor the offense to fit the quarterback they end up with, but McCoy's NFL roots trace back to the vertical passing 'Air Coryell' offense and Mason Rudolph has better accuracy on the deep ball than he does on short and intermediate throws.
The Cardinals could use an upgrade in weapons, but Larry Fitzgerald and a healthy David Johnson are a good starting point. With Sam Bradford slated to start, Rudolph likely will get some action this year when Bradford inevitably misses games. Rudolph is the best QB in the draft after the group of guys expected to go in the first round.
Kyle Lauletta, Richmond - New England Patriots: Lauletta is accurate and is a quick decision maker that really fits what the Patriots' offense does. His arm strength is questionable, but so was Brady's when he came into the league. The things Lauletta does well are a great fit for the scheme the Pats already run. He's also great in the play-action game, makes good decisions, and maneuvers the pocket very well while going through his progressions. I fully believe Brady will play out the two years remaining on his contract before he retires, and drafting Lauletta would allow for a seamless transition when that happens. He's got the upside to be a franchise QB.
Luke Falk, Washington State – Washington Redskins: Falk has a bit of a transition and learning curve ahead of him after playing his college career in Mike Leach's 'Air Raid' offense which is pretty much exclusively a shotgun spread offense. Playing under center and learning more pro concepts will be important parts of a successful transition. Falk lacks the arm strength to throw deep consistently, and current Washington starter Alex Smith is usually too risk averse to go deep himself, but has managed to put together a strong NFL career despite that. Smith is the ideal player for Falk to learn from as he makes the transition, and with Smith being almost 34 years old, he's a player Falk could supplant as starter in a couple years. He has the upside to be a similar game-managing starting QB who can win if surrounded with the right pieces and scheme.
That's all I've got for the QBs. I'm sure you'll disagree with at least some of what I've said above. Don't be a stranger; reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Be sure to check out the landing spot pieces on the RB, WR, and TE positions as well. They're sure to have just as many things you disagree with as this one. Enjoy the draft!
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