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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've almost made it all the way through NFL Draft season, and Thursday night we can finally start to put all of the smokescreens, misinformation, and mock drafts behind us as we learn where these players are really going...but first, let's do just a little bit more speculating. The information you're about to read below isn't a mock draft. It isn't an indication of where these players are going to be drafted. It's simply me trying to fit the puzzle pieces together in a way that would be most beneficial to each of the players for their career development and long-term fantasy upside.

I will be posting breakdowns of the RB, WR and TE positions in the coming hours, but with the QBs in particular, a few of these landing spots have just about zero chance of actually happening without some really surprising trades. That's going to happen when a QB-needy team like Buffalo isn't a good landing spot for anyone. The Bills are going to draft a QB and will probably trade up to do it, but their weapons are so bad at this point I wouldn't want any QB saddled with that situation. With all of that in mind, here are my favorite landing spots for the top QBs in the 2018 draft.

(Player, College – Favorite Landing Spot)

Josh Rosen, UCLA - New York Giants: This landing spot would be a good one for Rosen, and for the Giants. New York is widely expected to draft Saquon Barkley at this point, but Rosen would be a better choice. The Giants don't plan on picking this high again any time soon, and Eli Manning is 37 years old and has led the team to just one winning season in the past 5 years. The time to put a succession plan in place is now.

Rosen is the safest QB in this draft, and the one who fits the Giants' offense best. He's a pure pocket passer who will play within the structure of the scheme, much like Eli, and he can throw with accuracy to all 3 levels of the field. He'll have exciting weapons in Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram that will give him QB1 upside as soon as he takes over as starter. There's been a lot of talk about Rosen's attitude and varied interests outside of football being an issue for him, but I think that's nonsense. His personality kind of reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, and that hasn't been a problem for Rodgers' game at the NFL level. As a passer, the more apt comparison is Matt Ryan. If the Giants select Rosen, I think their QB position will be secured for the next decade.

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Cleveland Browns: Mayfield's name has been popping up lately as a potential pick for the Browns at number 1, and that's who I hope they go with. If it isn't Mayfield, they should certainly go with Sam Darnold over Josh Allen. The reason I like Mayfield is because the Browns have the pieces to install more elements of a spread offense like the one Mayfield thrived in at Oklahoma.

Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku make for a formidable group of receiving threats, and Duke Johnson is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield as well. Gordon and Coleman each have experience in a spread offense from their time at Baylor. The Browns also have a veteran mobile QB on the roster in Tryod Taylor who can help Mayfield learn some of the nuance of the position at the NFL level. I would expect Tyrod to open the season as the starter, but Mayfield should take over at some point near midseason and never look back.

Sam Darnold, USC - Los Angeles Chargers: This pairing is highly unlikely to become reality unless the Chargers make a big trade up, but it's one that is fun to think about. The biggest strength of Darnold's game is his ability to make accurate throws from difficult angles when the defensive pressure causes him to throw without his usual mechanics. The two NFL QBs who do this best are Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford. Since Stafford is 30 and Rivers is going to turn 37 this year, LA is the team that will need a replacement sooner. It's hard to say how many more years Rivers will play before deciding to hang it up and spend more time with his 7 kids (seriously, he has 7 of them), but playing behind Rivers for a year or two could really help Darnold hit his ceiling as a QB.

Darnold has a ton of upside, but he has a tendency to be a bit of a gunslinger and makes some questionable decisions. Rivers would be a great mentor to help Darnold learn to rein that in a little bit, and the weapons in LA should be good for several years with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams around. It's easy to see the Favre-ian upside in Darnold, but if he doesn't improve his decision making, he could just as easily be the next Jay Cutler or worse.

Lamar Jackson, Louisville - New Orleans Saints: Jackson has more fantasy upside than any other QB in this class thanks to his rushing ability. He has the speed and elusiveness of Michael Vick, and is far more advanced as a passer entering the league than Vick was after playing in a pro-style offense under Bobby Petrino at Louisville.

The best-case scenario for Jackson would be landing on a team with a creative offensive coach who will build an offense around him to best maximize his considerable talents. There are 3 teams with coaching staffs that I would trust to do that: New England, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. The Eagles have Carson Wentz and Nick Foles still, so they don't have enough need at QB to spend the draft capital it'll take to land Jackson.

The other two teams should both be looking to life beyond their current Hall of Fame QBs. Either one would be a good landing spot for Jackson, but I give the nod to New Orleans because of the weapons he'll have to work with. In New England, Amendola is gone, Cooks is gone, Julian Edelman will be 32 years old, and Gronk is already hinting at retirement. The Saints have young stars in Alvin Kamara and Mike Thomas, and added another promising youngster in Cam Meredith. Because of that edge in surrounding talent, New Orleans is the place I most want to see Lamar.

Josh Allen, Wyoming – Pittsburgh Steelers: If NFL Draft scouts weren't so in love with size and raw arm strength from QBs, Allen to Pittsburgh might actually be realistic. Instead, the consensus is that Allen will be off the board in the top 10 picks, possibly even at number one. The Steelers, who currently pick at 28, aren't moving up to get him. Still, I think this is the spot that would best serve him in making good on his potential. Ben Roethlisberger was already talking about retirement after the 2016 season, so it's not hard to envision him walking away in the next year or two. Similarly to Allen, Roethlisberger is a big, physical, strong-armed QB who played his college ball in a smaller conference. He'd be a great player for Allen to learn from while he works on his game as the number 2 QB.

Pittsburgh is also a landing spot that wouldn't have nearly as much pressure as the other places he could go...the pressure of being a savior in Cleveland, the pressure of the media scrutiny in New York, or the pressure of having the franchise's hero QB in the front office in Denver. Buffalo is another spot that would lack that pressure, but Buffalo doesn't have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster or a winning culture. Although this landing spot won't happen, I think it would be ideal for Allen.

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State – Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals' offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has said that they will tailor the offense to fit the quarterback they end up with, but McCoy's NFL roots trace back to the vertical passing 'Air Coryell' offense and Mason Rudolph has better accuracy on the deep ball than he does on short and intermediate throws.

The Cardinals could use an upgrade in weapons, but Larry Fitzgerald and a healthy David Johnson are a good starting point. With Sam Bradford slated to start, Rudolph likely will get some action this year when Bradford inevitably misses games. Rudolph is the best QB in the draft after the group of guys expected to go in the first round.

Kyle Lauletta, Richmond - New England Patriots: Lauletta is accurate and is a quick decision maker that really fits what the Patriots' offense does. His arm strength is questionable, but so was Brady's when he came into the league. The things Lauletta does well are a great fit for the scheme the Pats already run. He's also great in the play-action game, makes good decisions, and maneuvers the pocket very well while going through his progressions. I fully believe Brady will play out the two years remaining on his contract before he retires, and drafting Lauletta would allow for a seamless transition when that happens. He's got the upside to be a franchise QB.

Luke Falk, Washington State – Washington Redskins: Falk has a bit of a transition and learning curve ahead of him after playing his college career in Mike Leach's 'Air Raid' offense which is pretty much exclusively a shotgun spread offense. Playing under center and learning more pro concepts will be important parts of a successful transition. Falk lacks the arm strength to throw deep consistently, and current Washington starter Alex Smith is usually too risk averse to go deep himself, but has managed to put together a strong NFL career despite that. Smith is the ideal player for Falk to learn from as he makes the transition, and with Smith being almost 34 years old, he's a player Falk could supplant as starter in a couple years. He has the upside to be a similar game-managing starting QB who can win if surrounded with the right pieces and scheme.

That's all I've got for the QBs. I'm sure you'll disagree with at least some of what I've said above. Don't be a stranger; reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Be sure to check out the landing spot pieces on the RB, WR, and TE positions as well. They're sure to have just as many things you disagree with as this one. Enjoy the draft!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was a wild one around the NFL with some stunning upsets, most of which involved the NFC North. More importantly, we finally started to see a bigger chunk of the rookie class making their presence felt. Calvin Ridley, Kerryon Johnson, Josh Allen, Christian Kirk, Dallas Goedert and Baker Mayfield all had breakout games, and Saquon Barkley and Royce Freeman stayed productive as well. We’ve also arrived at the Josh Rosen era in the desert. The rookie crop will continue to make a larger impact as the season rolls on, whether through improvement or attrition. It’s going to get harder each week to decide which rookies to take a chance on, so it’s a good thing I’m here to help sort it out. Let’s take a look at what to expect in week 4.

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. NO): Saquon continues to demonstrate week in and week out that he’s a must start every week. The Giants’ offense may not be great, but he’s part of a very select group when it comes to usage, and that isn’t going to change barring injury. He’s an RB1 until further notice, and the Saints’ D is nothing to be afraid of this week.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): The Chiefs have been really impressive through 3 games overall, but the defense has been less than stellar. While Freeman has been a bit touchdown-dependent, there should be plenty of chances for the Broncos to get into scoring territory. Don’t be stunned if Freeman finds the end zone more than once. Game script might have the Broncos throwing more than they’d like, but that kind of scoring upside makes Royce a solid RB2 option in 12-team leagues.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Kerryon became the first Lions’ running back since Reggie Bush to top 100 yards in a game last week, and while he’ll be hard-pressed to duplicate the feat this week, his performance should at least earn him more opportunities. The Cowboys, defense isn’t exactly stingy, but the offense slows the game down a ton and limits the number of plays for the opposing offense. The Lions are still a pass-happy offense at heart, so the slow down likely means limited work for Johnson. Still, the rookie should be a solid bet for 60-70 yards from scrimmage and a potential TD.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 4: vs. Mia.): Michel dominated the running back carries for New England on Sunday night as Rex Burkhead surprisingly didn’t have a single carry. The results were mixed, with Sony flashing solid skill on several runs and going nowhere on several others. At the end of the day, the usage was promising, and the production should get better as the Pats’ offense finds its footing. He’s worth taking a chance on again this week in a matchup with Miami, who has allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game (all rankings and point totals based on PPR scoring).

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Ridley put on a show last Sunday, but don’t get too enamored with the TD barrage he unleashed on the Saints. The pendulum will eventually swing back to Julio as defenses start to pay more attention to Ridley. The Bengals have been a much better pass defense thus far than the Saints, and I’d be surprised if they let Ridley get going the way he did last week again. This might be a week to target Julio in DFS lineups. As for Ridley, it’ll be hard to sit a player with the upside he’s shown over the past couple weeks. If you believe in the talent, keep starting him. I’d at least pause and look at my other options if I had solid other choices. At the very least, Ridley has demonstrated that it is possible for a prominent 1^st round rookie WR to start his career fast.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Kirk was heavily featured for the first time in week 3 posting a 7-90 line on 8 targets, and there is a decent chance it happens again this week as Larry Fitzgerald fights through a hamstring issue. There is some risk here with a new starting quarterback, but I believe the switch to Josh Rosen makes the Cardinals’ offense better, not worse, and Kirk was targeted 3 times in Rosen’s 2 possessions at QB. Kirk is a flex option in deeper PPR leagues.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 4: @GB): Allen is coming off his best day as a pro, a dazzling performance against the vaunted Vikings’ defense where he scored twice on the ground and once through the air in an emphatic victory. The win, however, included a bit of good fortune and good defense early on that staked the Bills to an early lead. Minnesota extended Buffalo’s first scoring drive with a late hit penalty on a 3^rd-down sack. Then Kirk Cousins handed the Bills the ball deep in Vikes territory with two bad fumbles where he just didn’t feel the pressure coming. I don’t expect the same kind of perfect start at Lambeau. There is a chance that Allen does some stat-padding if the Bills fall behind in this one, but I wouldn’t trust him as more than a low-end QB2. The Packers will be playing angry coming off a disappointing loss last week, and they won’t sleep on the Bills like Minnesota did.

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Rosen has officially been announced as the starter moving forward, and it hopefully will jumpstart the Cards’ offense. I’m hesitant to put much faith in him this week against a Seahawks’ defense that has been playing surprisingly well despite a lot of roster turnover. The ‘Hawks rank 4^th in the league in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. I’ll be watching Rosen closely this week, but he should only be started if you’re desperate in a 2-QB league.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Darnold has posted back-to-back shaky performances after a strong NFL debut, and now he gets to face one of the most feared secondaries in the league. The Jaguars have allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game and will make it a long Sunday for Darnold.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Lindsay was a disappointment last week after being ejected for throwing a punch on Sunday. It may have opened the door for Devontae Booker to push his way back into a role in the offense, and Lindsay might see some reduced playing time as a result of his transgression. There’s still a chance that the rookie goes right back to putting up 100 scrimmage yards this week, but I’d be cautious about trotting him out there in lineups this week.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): Penny seemed to be working his way into a big role, but that all changed in week 3 as Chris Carson tallied over 30 carries. Penny is clearly relegated to the second string again, and until we know that’s changed you just can’t trust him in lineups.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Chubb’s time seemed to be on the horizon as Carlos Hyde struggled with his efficiency in the first 2 weeks, but Hyde took a big step forward in week 3. The veteran back posted his best game as a Brown and likely bought himself at least a couple more weeks as Cleveland’s clear lead back. Chubb will continue to spell Hyde for the time being, but he isn’t getting enough work to be useful in fantasy right now.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Adams looks like the next man up in the Eagles’ backfield group with Jay Ajayi sidelined, but he’s not worth trusting in fantasy yet. He carried just 6 times in week 3 and wasn’t targeted. There’s a chance that Ajayi returns this week, which would render Adams totally useless. If Ajayi sits, 6-8 touches feels like the most you can hope for.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Smith will continue to see some work to keep Tevin Coleman fresh as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but not enough of it. Smith handled just 5 touches last week to 17 for Coleman. That kind of work gives him just enough opportunity to flash his skills without being useful in fantasy.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Washington has seen much more playing time over the last couple games than he did week 1, but it hasn’t resulted in big production. The Ravens aren’t likely to be the team he breaks out against. Baltimore ranks 6^th in the league in pass defense DVOA, and have allowed just 10 catches to WRs per game, and the vast majority of those will go to JuJu and Antonio Brown.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Gallup’s targets have climbed from 1 to 2 to 4 in the first 3 games of the year, but he’s caught just 1 pass each week. He also was on the wrong side of a highlight-reel interception by Earl Thomas after Gallup couldn’t hang on to the ball. His usage is trending up, but his production is not. Keep waiting on Gallup.

TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 4: @Ari.): The Seahawks finally got a chance to play from ahead in week 3, and Will Dissly’s production disappeared as a result. Seattle is a 3-point favorite on the road this weekend, and it’s hard to count on him to return to productive ways if they do in fact play from in front. The TE position has been a bit desolate this year, but there are probably better options you can find this week.

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 4: @NE): Gesicki posted his best game as a pro last Sunday, but it’s going to take a bit more than 3 catches for 31 yards for me to buy into the Penn State alum. He was targeted just 3 times against Oakland and had just 1 catch prior to last Sunday.

TE Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 4: @Ind.): The Colts are an inviting tight end matchup, allowing the 4th-most points per game to the position and at least 57 yards each week, but Akins has totaled just 5-50-0 in 3 weeks.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): If you play in a 2-QB league and have Cam Newton or Alex Smith as one of your weekly starters, Baker could make for a nice bye week fill-in. He didn’t post a TD in his debut, but he looked fantastic in leading the Browns to just their second win since 2015. The Raiders rank just 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and I don’t think they have quite enough film on Baker to be able to shut him down this week. I’m excited to see what he does for an encore.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Hou.): Marlon Mack’s status is still up in the air for this week, and Hines has shown himself to be the only other Colts’ back worth considering. Jordan Wilkins hasn’t really made much happen with his limited opportunity, but Hines has shown himself to be a useful receiver out of the backfield. It would help him if Andrew Luck gets back the ability to push the ball down the field to create more space for screens and other short passes, but Hines has the athleticism to make a big play happen at any time. That explosiveness makes him an intriguing punt option in DFS tournaments.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 4: @Oak.): Callaway was a letdown last week, but he was a letdown that was targeted 10 times. If that volume continues, it’s only a matter of time until he has that breakout game. Baker Mayfield’s accuracy and quick decision-making should open up the Cleveland offense a bit, and make Callaway even more of a threat. If he’s still available in your league, you should rectify that. He has solid upside in week 4 against a poor Oakland secondary.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. KC): This week is a good one to take a chance on Sutton in DFS tournaments or if you’re desperate for a flex option in deeper leagues. The Chiefs are heavy favorites and lack much of a pass defense. If Denver is chasing points, Sutton is going to see a solid number of targets against the defense. KC is allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game so far.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Much like Sutton above, Miller is going to face a team with a lackluster defense and explosive offense. The Bears aren’t a team that’s likely to be involved in a shootout, but if you expect Fitzmagic to continue this week, Miller will have a chance to put up a solid day as the Bears try to keep pace. He’s worth a dice roll as a cheap DFS tournament play. He left last Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury, but posted that he was fine on twitter afterward.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 4: @Ten.): Goedert may have been the most surprising rookie performance of last weekend. He managed to out-target and out-produce Zach Ertz in the return of QB Carson Wentz. Wentz’s affinity for his tight ends is well known, so I’d look for Goedert to remain a big part of the offense at least until Alshon Jeffery returns. The Titans have allowed the fewest TE points per game, but they have yet to face a decent tight end. Goedert is an interesting DFS tournament option this week.

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 4: @Pit.): The Steelers have been absolutely shredded by tight ends each of the last 2 weeks, and Andrews is averaging just over 8 points per game (PPR). He’s still splitting work with Nick Boyle and Maxx Williams (at least until Hayden Hurst returns), but he is a decent DFS dart throw again this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you aren’t starting any injured players come game day. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) and let me know. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Last week I had some work come up and was unable to contribute! Hopefully you enjoyed all the upsets and won your fantasy matchup! Darn work gets in the way of fun from time to time.

Rookie QB’s

Something about Rookies gets me excited. It’s the potential. More often than not they are disappointing, but when they pan out it is exciting! This week we have 2 new Rookie QB’s getting thrown into the mix, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen get their first NFL starts. Why am I interested in watching them this week? Well, the potential.

Baker Mayfield looked much better then Tyrod Taylor when he came in to lead the Browns to victory last week. It will be interesting to see how this affects the rest of the team. Njoku should get back to the preseason hype level. Landry has already been quoted that Mayfield throws “with so much zing”. Calloway has some breakout potential and would have had an easy touchdown if Tyrod didn’t under throw him last week (he did drop a dime from Mayfield in the second half).

Josh Rosen got thrown to the wolves last week vs the Bears. Down in the 4^th quarter against one of the scariest defenses in the league, perfect time to let the rookie show what he is made of. Rosen had great chemistry with Christian Kirk in the pre-season and I would expect to see his name on some waiver wire lists next week. The big thing to watch will be how the rookie benefits David Johnson, because quite frankly it can’t get worse….right?

Prediction- Baker Mayfield goes off passing for 300+ yards and touchdowns to 3 different receivers (Landry, Calloway, Njoku). Rosen looks more like a rookie, but David Johnson owners breathe a sigh of relief as he targets his best weapon out of the backfield and has his best fantasy performance of the year.

Thursday Night Football

Any football fan will sit down and watch Thursday night football, even a Jets vs Browns game. This week should be one of the better matchups on the season with two of the favorites to win the NFC squaring off.

Minnesota was downright awful last week vs Buffalo and looks to bounce back on the road vs the 3-0 Rams. The Vikings hold 27-16-2 record all time vs the Rams including last season when the Vikings blew out the Rams 24-7. A lot of the same faces this year, but two very different starts to the season. With a Vegas over/under set at 49.5, this should be a shoot-out and great fantasy days for all involved. I’m just excited to start Week 4 with what should be an exciting game.

Prediction: Minnesota coming into LA as underdogs score the last points of the game and that proves to be the difference. Final 38-35 Vikings

 The Bills?

Did you see Josh Allen hurdle?! In an age when defenders are getting flagged for patting a quarterback on the head, no one expected Josh Allen to hurdle a tackle. He didn’t only do it with his legs (2 rushing TDs) he also went for 15-22 for 196 yards and a touchdown in a game where he did not need to pass much.

With LeSean McCoy coming back this week, I will be watching to see if McCoy can return any value with a new signal caller out there. Since Allen has already proved his ability to keep plays alive and use his legs, we might see more swing passes and option plays going McCoys way.

Prediction – The Bills lose to the Packers, but Josh Allen surprises with 250 yards, 1 passing touchdown and another one on the ground. His mobility opens up the game for LeSean McCoy and owners that nabbed him in the 4^th or 5^th round are starting to get excited. 

Week 2 Recap

Denver Backfield - Nailed my prediction of Freeman getting in the end zone week 2 (did it again week 3) and both backs are RB2/Flex worthy. Lindsay got ejected for throwing a punch week 3, but he will be back and we can expect a split backfield once again.

JETS - Missed badly here. Darnold looks…..like a rookie. I called for Crow to get into the end zone twice in week 2, and was off a week in both directions. He scored twice in week 1 and twice in week 3. Maybe start Crow on odd number weeks? Smarter play is to avoid the Jets all together.

Steelers vs Chiefs – It was the highest scoring game of the week with a whopping 79 points. Kelce and Hunt also had great bounce back games. Missed on AB being the #1 WR of the week, but can’t win them all!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a 1-week hiatus, and it looks like we missed a pretty explosive week for some rookie receivers, not to mention the scintillating first start of Lamar Jackson’s career. Jackson won’t hold up for long if he keeps carrying the ball 27 times per game, but it worked at least in this one. Not to be outdone, DJ Moore and Tre’Quan Smith each put on a show in week 11. Christian Kirk finished the week as a top-20 option, Keke Coutee was in the top-30 for the week, and Courtland Sutton and Anthony Miller ended up in the top-40. Marcell Ateman and Trey Quinn were also each productive in their first real action of the season. Saquon kept being Saquon, Lindsay kept being Lindsay, but the rest of the rookie RB crop was quiet in week 11 outside of a breakout performance by unknown Gus Edwards. Will any of these trends continue this week? Let’s dive in and take a look…

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 12: @Phi.): You obviously know what to do with Saquon, but I wanted to give a little background on the matchup this week. The Eagles’ injury-riddled defense has allowed 31 RB points per game in their last 5 contests (all scoring and rankings are in PPR format). There are only 3 teams in the league that allow more than that per game for the year. The return of Timmy Jernigan this week might help Philly, but the Saquon show doesn’t take weeks off.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Like Philly’s, the Cincinnati defense has been crumbling of late. Over their past 8 games, the Bungles have coughed up more than 135 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing scores to RBs. Chubb should be a strong RB2 play in this one.

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Michel should’ve had a chance to get healthier over New England’s bye last weekend, and he gets a great situation this week. The Pats are 9.5-point favorites on the road at the Meadowlands this week. The game script should be run-heavy and the Jets have a middling run defense that ranks 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Only 6 teams have allowed more rushing scores to backs than the Jets.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Edwards should be a great option this week, especially in non-PPR formats. I did list Phillip Lindsay in the borderline category this week, but I’d be hard-pressed to start Edwards over him in a PPR league. With that said, I love Edwards this week. I can’t imagine the Ravens would go back to Alex Collins this week after the performance Edwards put together against the Bengals, and the Raiders have been shredded on the ground this year. Baltimore is a double-digit favorite, and Oakland has given up more than 100 running back rush yards in 8 of their last 10 games, and more than 150 in 4 of them. Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability from the QB position only serves to open up more lanes for Edwards. If you managed to get Gus on the wire this week, find a way to get him into your lineup.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): Mayfield is nearly a must-start in 2-QB leagues this week, but he’s a borderline option in leagues where you start just one. Baker’s been really consistent over the past month-plus, and has seemed to turn a corner since Hue and Haley were fired. He’s thrown for multiple TDs in 4 straight starts, and has only turned the ball over twice in those games. Cincinnati has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game. Keep rolling with Baker in 2-QB formats until he gives you a reason not to.

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 12: vs. Oak.): Jackson was phenomenal in his first NFL start, and he gets rewarded with one of the easiest matchups imaginable. We already know what Jackson can do with his legs and his running ability, and this week he faces a Raiders team that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA and has allowed multiple passing scores in 9 of the 10 games they’ve played. Jackson is a high-upside QB2 this week with some borderline QB1 appeal in deeper leagues.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): I’d still lean toward starting Lindsay even though I listed him as a borderline option. I just want to emphasize that this is one of the tougher matchups he’ll face. The Steelers have allowed the 7^th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and the Broncos have really failed to feature Lindsay as much as they should. He’s been hyper-efficient, averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry, but he’s received more than 15 carries in a game just twice all year, and has more than 3 receptions just twice as well.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): It’s been a while since Calvin teased us with his string of blowup games in the season’s first few weeks. He’s shown a floor right around 7 points, but we’ve kind of lost the ceiling a bit. This week is as good as any to take a chance on him finding it again. The Saints have allowed more WR points per game than any other team, and the Falcons are likely to be throwing as 2-score underdogs. The risk of another floor game is still there, but Ridley is a reasonable upside WR3 this week.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Sea.): Moore’s coming-out party last weekend was a blast, but Carolina’s passing volume is never a given. Cam Newton has thrown fewer than 30 times in 4 of Carolina’s 6 wins this year, and the Panthers are favored this week. He could see a bigger target share with Devin Funchess listed as questionable, and we’ve seen him flash the skills to be a big-time player in this league. If the volume is there, he should be a solid WR3 this week.

WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Smith had a huge breakout game last weekend against Philadelphia, but he looks iffy to play on Thursday night after missing Tuesday’s practice and getting in a limited session Wednesday. He revealed last Sunday that Drew Brees pulled him aside to tell him the reason he threw him the ball on his 2^nd TD catch was because he trusts him. That could just be a motivational tactic from Brees, or it could be a positive sign for Smith going forward. The Saints have so many mouths to feed in this offense that it leads to some low-floor performances. We’ve seen those with Tre’Quan a couple times in recent weeks. The Falcons do allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, so the matchup is ripe for another strong performance if Smith is able to play. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 12: @Det.): The Lions corners outside of Darius Slay have struggled mightily in coverage this year. Several secondary receivers have torn this defense apart this season: Danny Amendola (6-84-1), David Moore (4-97-1), DJ Moore (7-157-1), Equanimeous St. Brown (3-89), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (7-68-1), Quincy Enunwa (6-63-1) and notably Miller himself (5-122-1) have all had strong days against this defense. I’d expect the Lions to be a little more aware of Miller this time around, and he’ll likely be catching passes from Chase Daniel rather than Mitch Trubisky, but he’s still a decent flex option in deeper leagues and has a ton of DFS tourney upside.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): Rosen has made some strides in his rookie year. He’s made some big plays to Christian Kirk and had his first 3-TD game last week, but he’s still throwing for minimal yardage (just 2 games over 210 yards and peak of 252), and the Chargers have been stingy against the pass of late. They’ve allowed just 5 passing scores in their past 6 contests, and have allowed just 1 QB to top 250 yards passing and one to top 16 fantasy points in that span. Rosen isn’t the type to overcome that for a solid day.

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): It’s looking more and more like Darnold is going to miss this game. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d still steer clear if he does play. It’s possible the bye week got him straightened out (both physically and mentally), but I wouldn’t count on it. Darnold turned the ball over 4 times twice in his last 3 starts. There could be some garbage time upside for Darnold in this one with the Pats heavily favored, but you know better than to chase garbage time points.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Allen looks set to return just in time to face one of the most fearsome pass defenses in the league, Jalen Ramsey and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA, and the Bills’ offense remains a dumpster fire. A rusty Josh Allen could get roughed up a bit in his return.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned with Phillip Lindsay above, the Steelers are a tough matchup for RBs, and Freeman is getting by on touchdowns alone. He hasn’t reached 40 rushing yards in a game or more than 10 fantasy points since week 4.

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 12: vs. NO): Smith has just 10 carries for 21 yards in the last two weeks, and the Saints allow the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. Ito continues to see some goal line work, but not enough that you can bank on it. He also isn’t seeing enough action in the passing game to offset his poor rushing performances. This game should be pass-heavy for Atlanta with the Saints favored by 12. It looks like more of a Tevin Coleman night for the Falcons backfield.

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 12: @Car.): Penny should continue to work as the number 2 back behind Chris Carson this week. He’s been pretty efficient with his touches over the last 2 games, but the Panthers have allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game and rank a respectable 12^th in run defense DVOA. Penny has managed to top 6 PPR points just 3 times all year, and reached double-digits just once. The upside isn’t there for you to trust Penny unless something happens to Carson.

RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Jordan Wilkins pleasantly surprised in week 11 by scoring a TD, but he and Hines still combined for just 9 carries and 3 targets in a game that the Colts won by 4(!) scores. This backfield is Marlon Mack’s show until further notice.

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 12: @LAC): This isn’t the best week to roll our Christian Kirk. The Chargers allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, and just one wide receiver has found the end zone against them in the past 5 games. Kirk’s role in this offense is secure, but his upside is severely limited this week.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Sutton has played pretty well over the past 3 games, averaging 3-71, but the QB play of Case Keenum holds this entire offense back, and the Steelers have been playing much improved pass defense of late. They’ve allowed fewer than 30 WR fantasy points in each of the last 4 contests. Only 2 teams in the league have allowed fewer than 30 per game on the year.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Gallup is dealing with the suicide death of his brother from last weekend, and also has to get ready on a short week for a Thursday game. I’m surprised he’s going to play. Some people feel like it’s a welcome distraction from the grief to go play a game and not think about it. Brett Favre played one of the greatest games of his career after the death of his father, but I can’t imagine taking the field so soon after the death of an immediate family member and being able to focus on football. I wish Gallup all the best both on and off the field this week.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 12: @Cin.): The new coaching regime has opened up the game plan and gotten other weapons more involved in Cleveland (most notably Duke Johnson Jr.), and that’s made Callaway’s already low floor even lower. His stats haven’t dropped off much, but his targets have. In the 7 games prior to the coaching change, Callaway averaged 6.3 targets per game. He’s had just 7 total in the 2 games since the change. There may be some upside in DFS tournaments this week, but I would take my chances elsewhere.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): If you’re looking for spots to use Goedert in any format, you’re searching for the opportunities where he has the best chances of finding the end zone. In each game this year he’s either scored a TD and finished with double-digit fantasy points or failed to score 4 points. This week isn’t a prime opportunity for a touchdown. The Giants have allowed just one TE to hit paydirt all year.

TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): These two might be a decent DFS dart throw if they were one guy, but individually there just isn’t enough upside to roll the dice, especially in tougher matchups. Only one team has scored double-digit points against Tennessee from the tight end position, and that was Zach Ertz and the Eagles.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 12: vs. NYG): It’s pretty hard to trust much of the Philly offense after their putrid performance in week 11, but Adams was a bright spot. He continued to produce with limited touches, and now has averaged 7.6 carries and 53.6 yards per game in the last 3 (7 ypc). This week’s opponent, the Giants, have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game and rank 20^th in run defense DVOA. The game script also should be much better for Adams with the Eagles favored by a touchdown. Adams should be a good option in deeper leagues and a bargain in DFS tournaments.

WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Ten.): Bringing in Demaryius Thomas hasn’t affected Coutee the way I feared it would. Coutee posted a 5-77 line in his return from a hamstring injury, and the Titans are a good matchup for him this week. Tennessee ranks 24^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk. 12: @Min.): MVS could be in line for a bounce-back week after he burned a lot of fantasy owners in week 11. The Vikings rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing number 1 receiver, but just 25^th on throws to the number 2 guy. Xavier Rhodes probably has a lot to do with that. It might not be a great week to go for Davante Adams in DFS lineups, but Valdes-Scantling has some appeal in DFS tourneys in deeper fantasy formats.

WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 12: @Dal.): ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ from the 2018 draft made some noise in his first regular season action. It may be point chasing to point him out as a sleeper now, but this is a team that has really missed Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson this year. This team loves to throw to their slot receivers, as evidenced by the 15-176 that Maurice Harris tallied in weeks 9 & 10. Those numbers didn’t stop Quinn from supplanting him in week 11. Jamison Crowder could return this week, but Quinn should be a decent floor PPR option going forward in the same vein as Bruce Ellington or Cole Beasley.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 12: @Bal.): Ateman is an intriguing stash in deeper leagues and in dynasty formats. Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant have shown time and again this year that they can’t be relied upon to produce or stay healthy, and Ateman’s 4-catch, 50-yard debut is already the 4^th-best receiving yardage total any Raider WR has posted in a game this season. He’s a big, raw, physical player who could make a splash down the stretch. The reason why I call Ateman a stash is because this week’s matchup is a tough one. Baltimore allows just the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, but the coast gets a little clearer after. The Chiefs, Steelers and Bengals are the opponents that follow, and the Raiders should be throwing a bunch in each game.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Herndon has turned into the clear top TE on this team over the course of the season, and the Pats are quietly struggling to defend the position this year. New England has allowed 6 tight end scores in the past 6 games, and at least 50 receiving yards to them in each contest as well. Herndon hasn’t caught for a ton of yards, but he’s reached 10 points or more 3 times in the past 5 games. He’s a back-end TE1 this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps with your toughest decisions involving rookies. This week is a critical one with only two weeks left before the fantasy playoffs begin. Make sure to double-check your lineups for any players with games on Thursday, and this especially goes for players with injury designations that play on the holiday. Kerryon Johnson, Chris Thompson and Marvin Jones have already been ruled out and Tre’Quan Smith, Mitch Trubisky and a host of others are questionable as well. Make sure you aren’t starting inactive players before going into your turkey comas on Thursday. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.