Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now halfway through the NFL season, and that means we’re entering the closing stretch of the fantasy regular season. In most fantasy leagues, you’ve got 5 weeks left to improve your positioning and make a push for the playoffs. Make sure you know where you stand at this point, and act accordingly going forward. If you’re on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, maybe explore some trades to improve the roster. If you’re in good position, keep doing the things that got you here, but don’t be afraid to look at ways to upgrade your roster as we inch closer to the playoffs. The next 5 weeks should be a lot of fun.
Week 10 features 4 teams on byes, but lucky for us, Brock Bowers is the only notable rookie that has the week off, so we’ve got plenty to talk about. This week’s article is being dropped a little earlier than usual due to a pre-planned personal engagement, so keep a close eye on the reporting as the week goes on before locking in any lineup decisions based on the info below. There are a lot of injury updates to monitor and make sure you’re making final decisions with the most complete information.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 10…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. Pit.): Daniels faces one of the toughest matchups he’s faced this season against the Steelers, but Daniels is the QB4 in PPG for the season, and he finished as a QB1 the only other time he faced a top QB defense. If you have another top-10 QB and really don’t like the matchup here, I wouldn’t fault you for being worried, but in my opinion, the upside of Daniels is too great to sit, even in a tough spot like this. The Steelers have allowed the 3rd-fewest QB points per game, and the 2nd-fewest QB rushing yards per game.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 10: @ Car.): Nabers has now finished as worse than the PPR WR20 in three straight games, but he’s still finished in the top-36 every single game he’s played and he’s still dominating the looks in this offense. Carolina ranks 31st in FTN’s pass defense DVOA, and Nabers is a virtual lock to see a 30% or higher target share against that defense. I like him to get back on track this week, but even if he doesn’t, a WR3 floor is a nice starting point.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. NE): I’m not sure I’d want to plug in Caleb as my starting QB in a 12-team league, but I list him in this section to signify that I like him more this week than I do his fellow rookie signal callers Bo Nix and Drake Maye. Caleb has struggled mightily in the passing game the last couple weeks, but I have a feeling a matchup with the Patriots is just what the doctor ordered to get him back on track throwing the ball. New England ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve allowed 7 of the last 8 QBs they’ve faced to score 15+ fantasy points, and they’ve allowed 3 of the last 4 to throw for multiple TDs, including 2 scores by Mason Rudolph last weekend. We did see a 4-game stretch of Caleb playing well against bad pass defense prior to the last two down games, and 3 of those strong games were in Chicago, where they’ll be playing this week. I like his chances to get back on track. I’d view Caleb as a high-end QB2 this week in spite of his recent poor play.
RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 10: @ Car.): In 3 games since Devin Singletary returned from his groin injury, Tracy has averaged 16 touches per game and played at least a 60% snap share in each contest. Against the abysmal Panthers’ defense, that makes him a top-20 RB option this week. The Panthers rank dead last in run defense DVOA and have allowed the most RB points per game.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 10: vs. SF): Irving played his lowest snap share since week 3 on Monday night and barely finished inside the top-40 RBs for the week, but it was just his first finish outside the top-20 RBs in the last month. This week’s matchup with SF looks tough at first glance, but the 49ers rank just 19th in run defense DVOA, and the Bucs’ passing game should continue to heavily feature the running backs due to injuries to WRs. With 4 teams on byes in week 10, that’s just enough to get Irving to the right side of the cut line for me as a flex option.
WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Thomas is coming off his worst fantasy performance in weeks, finishing with just 2 catches for 22 yards and adding a 2-point conversion. The issue seems to be that he earned just a 10% target share despite being in a route on 97% of the team passing dropbacks. That won’t be the norm going forward, and I expect him to get some squeaky wheel treatment this week and be peppered with more targets than usual. The Vikings have a good pass defense, but still allow the 2nd-most WR points per game. BTJ should return to the WR2 ranks this week. This outlook changes if Trevor Lawrence is unable to play this week. Doug Pederson hinted on Wednesday that there’s a chance that he might sit due to an ‘upper body injury’. If T-Law sits, Thomas becomes more of a WR4 option with Mac Jones under center. Luckily the Jaguars play at noon Sunday, so most replacement options should be on the table still at that point.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 10: @ Ind.): This is going to sound counter-intuitive, but it seems like Keon Coleman is a better fantasy play if Amari Cooper is active this week, rather than out. Coleman has earned 7+ targets exactly twice this season. He’s finished as a top-20 PPR WR exactly twice. Those performances happened in the two games that Amari Cooper was on the field for Buffalo. With Cooper out last week, Coleman was targeted just twice and pulled in 1 catch for 21 yards. I’m guessing it’s more coincidence than correlation, but I’m willing to lean into the coincidence this week if Cooper returns as the Colts rank 28th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-most completions of 40+ yards this season. Coleman will be boom or bust as usual, but I like his chances to bounce back and boom this week against a bad Indy secondary.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 10: vs. Ten.): McConkey has finished as a PPR WR3 or better in 4 of his last 5 games, and while this week’s matchup is a tough one – the Titans allow the 4th-fewest WR points per game – I still like McConkey’s chances of compiling his way to another solid PPR performance. In their last 4 games, the Titans have allowed 3 different slot WRs to reach 7 receptions against them (Khalil Shakir, Demario Douglas and Josh Downs). I’ve talked in this space about how good McConkey has been vs. man coverage before, and the Titans’ man coverage rate is in the top-10 in the league.
WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): With Diontae Johnson out of his way, Legette has served as the Panthers’ WR1 over the last two weeks, and he’s logged back-to-back top-30 PPR finishes as a result. Bryce Young being back under center hasn’t been a problem for him, and this week Legette figures to see a lot of Giants’ corner Deonte Banks, who is allowing nearly a half a PPR point per route run into his coverage despite being targeted on just 22% of those coverage routes. The return of Adam Thielen could complicate things for Legette when it comes to target share, but Thielen should have zero impact on Xavier’s snap share. The opposing WR1 facing the Giants has gone for 70+ yards and/or a TD in 6 of their last 7 games. Legette is an upside WR3 this week, with even bigger upside if Thielen somehow sits again.
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): I know, Harrison is getting harder to trust each week that he underperforms, but the biggest issue last week was low passing volume due to a blowout win. Harrison’s 5 targets still accounted for a 26% target share and a 66% air yardage share, but that doesn’t change the fact that in his last 4 healthy games, Harrison has finished outside the top-45 PPR WRs 3 times. A matchup this week with the Jets, who allow the 2nd-fewest WR points per game doesn’t exactly make you feel better about playing him, but at least a couple WR1s have had success against the Jets in recent weeks. Tank Dell posted 6-126 last week, and George Pickens posted 5-111-1 in week 7. There’s obvious downside here, but few WRs offer the top-12 ceiling that Harrison does. I’d probably be willing to roll him out there as a WR3/flex option this week despite the tough matchup and recent struggles.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 10: @ KC): Nix will likely be a passable mid-range QB2 this week, but I wouldn’t count on a ceiling week against a KC defense that ranks 7th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed just 193 passing yards per game in their last 5 contests. They’re not completely invulnerable though, as KC has allowed 2 total TDs to each of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced, and hasn’t held a single QB below 11 points this season. There’s a floor here, even if not much ceiling. I’d expect Nix’s passing volume to be on the higher side with KC favored by 8 points, and he’ll still have his regular rushing upside, but this probably isn’t a week where he’ll wind up in the top-10 QBs.
QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 10: @ Chi.): In the 3 full games Maye has played this season, he’s scored at least 17.7 fantasy points in each and finished as QB17 or better in all 3 games, but he faces a Chicago defense that allows the fewest QB points per game and has allowed just 2 QBs all season to reach 15+ fantasy points. I would expect Drake to post his worst performance to-date, and would treat him like a lower-end QB2 option.
RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 10: @ TB): Guerendo made the most of his opportunities ahead of the 49ers’ bye last week, but all signs point to Christian McCaffrey returning this week, and Jordan Mason will likely be back as well (Kyle Shanahan hinted that he could’ve probably gone back into their week 8 game if Guerendo wasn’t playing well). If CMC is back as expected, I wouldn’t give strong consideration to Guerendo, even if Mason is out. If only Mason returns, there’d be a little more hope that Isaac can peel off enough work to be useful against a Tampa defense that allows the 7th-most RB points per game, but he’d still be a dicey option. If both CMC and Mason remain out, then I’d treat Guerendo as a strong RB2 option in a plus matchup.
WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 10: vs. SF): McMillan missed last Monday’s contest with a hamstring injury, and it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to get cleared to play this week against the 49ers. In McMillan’s absence on Monday, no receiver really took the reins of the WR1 role as 4 different wideouts combined for 13 total targets (Sterling Shepard led the way with 5). If McMillan returns, there’s a good chance that he’ll step into the WR1 role if Mike Evans remains sidelined. That lead role led to 15 total targets for McMillan in his last 2 games, but he fell short of double-digit PPR points in both games despite facing bottom-10 WR defenses. If McMillan is active, he should have a big enough role for fantasy consideration, but the combination of the injury, the limited production with the full-time role, and the fact the 49ers rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA all adds up to me leaning against playing Jalen this week.
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Now that DeAndre Hopkins is fully integrated into the KC offense, it looks like he could be a problem for Worthy. Xavier was limited to just 2 targets on Monday night on 40 routes run, and he pulled in zero catches and added negative-10 rushing yards to boot. I’d expect the Chiefs to still look to take deep shots to Worthy to keep defenses on their toes, but his 32% and 24% target shares from weeks 7 & 8 are likely a thing of the past. There’s still upside here if you need a boom-or-bust WR4, but the Broncos rank 9th in the league on pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so I’d lean against plugging the rookie into lineups this week.
WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): Coker’s role is very much in flux moving forward now that the Panthers have officially not traded away Adam Thielen ahead of the trade deadline. Coker was limited to a 59% route participation rate last weekend while both David Moore and Xavier Legette logged rates above 90%. Some of those lost snaps went to Jonathan Mingo, who is no longer a Panther, but Thielen’s return will replace Mingo with an even bigger threat to Coker. Both Coker and Thielen have been primarily used in the slot by Carolina, but the hope for Coker is that Thielen will replace David Moore on the perimeter rather than Coker. But even if that happens, the Giants are more vulnerable on the perimeter than in the slot. Pay attention to the reporting here. If Thielen sits another week, Coker is probably a passable WR4 against a New York defense that ranks 24th in pass defense DVOA. If Thielen plays, He’s probably a risky WR5.
WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): It doesn’t seem to matter how many wide receivers are out for the Saints, Tipton just keeps failing to produce. He’s logged an 85% or higher route participation rate in each of the last 3 games but has just one finish all year higher than the WR60 to show for it. Atlanta does allow the 9th-most WR points per game, but I’m not counting on Tipton cashing in on this good matchup. The Saints will likely lean heavily on the run game and Taysom Hill to get by until Chris Olave returns. I’d view Tipton as a dicey WR4/5 option.
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): I mention Sanders here with the caveat that I like him less if Tommy Tremble is active this week, but if Tremble is out as he was last week, Ja’Tavion has some modest appeal as a fill in TE1 this week. We’ve seen him post lines of 5-49, 6-61, and 4-87 in the last 3 games that Tremble missed, but the matchup this week isn’t a great one. The Giants have allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points per game, and only Jake Ferguson and Zach Ertz have posted double-digit PPR points against them. Some of their success has been due to facing mostly weak TE competition, but they haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown all season long.
TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 10: @ Car.): Johnson has finally started to produce some fantasy points in the last two weeks, totaling 6-86-1 on 10 targets in the last two contests. A 35-yard TD last Sunday helped him to a PPR TE7 finish for the week. The concern is that most of his production has come during furious efforts by the Giants to come from behind at the end of those games. Of that production listed above, 4-78-1 of it has come in the final 4 minutes of those games with the Giants down at least a touchdown. The Panthers have been the worst defense in the league at limiting TE fantasy points, but I’m not sure there will be garbage time production in a game the Giants are favored to win by 5 points. I think Theo would be fine to use as a TE2 this week, but would be uncomfortable plugging him in as a fill-in TE1, even in this very good matchup.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 10: vs. NYJ): Benson posted his best fantasy game of the season last week, finishing with 55 yards and a TD on 9 touches. I’m not convinced it’s a sign of things to come. He scored his touchdown with James Conner on the sideline after taking a hard hit near the goal line, and most of Benson’s touches came in the 4th quarter when the game was essentially over. The Cardinals have won 4 of their past 5 games, but 3 of those 4 wins were decided by less than a field goal. Benson totaled just 1 touch in those 3 games. Arizona is favored by just a single point this week. The Jets rank just 24th in run defense DVOA, but you can’t count on Benson to play enough to take advantage.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 10: @ Ari.): While Allen’s playing time has ticked back up in the last couple weeks, he’s still finished as a top-40 fantasy RB just once in the last 6 games. I wouldn’t roll the dice on a breakout here, even against an Arizona defense that allows the 9th-most RB points per game. Allen is still playing less than 35% of the offensive snaps.
RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. NYG): Brooks will likely finally be active this week. If the Panthers don’t activate him, his practice window closes, and he sits for the full year. With that said, he’s still going to have work to do if he wants to put any dent in Chuba Hubbard’s RB1 workload. Hubbard has played 75% or more of the snaps in each of the last 4 games.
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 10: @ LAR): Over the last 3 weeks with both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane healthy, Wright have averaged just 6 snaps and 2.6 PPR points per game. I don’t see a good reason to expect a spike in those numbers this week in a game that should be close (Dolphins are 2.5-point underdogs).
RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 10 : vs. Ten.): Over the past 3 games, Vidal has totaled 42 yards on 15 touches. The Titans rank 5th in run defense DVOA. 5 touches against that Titans’ defense probably won’t result in significantly better efficiency than we’ve seen from Vidal in recent weeks.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Steele has not reached a 20% snap share or reached 3 PPR points in a game since week 3.
RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 10: vs. Mia.): Corum hasn’t played more than 15% of the offensive snaps in any game this season, and he’s totaled just 28 scrimmage yards on 9 touches in the last 3 games. The Dolphins can be run on, but Kyren Williams will be the one doing the running.
RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 10: @ KC): It’s up to you if you want to believe Sean Payton when he says Estime is going to see an increased workload going forward. It’s not the first time Payton has said it this season, but Estime hasn’t played more than a 10% snap share in any game this season and has topped out at 3.5 PPR points. Those season highs were hit just last weekend, but most of the opportunities came in the 4th quarter of a blowout loss. They could get blown out again this week by the Chiefs, but KC ranks 2nd in run defense DVOA and allows the fewest RB fantasy points per game. It’ll take a substantial increase in playing time for Estime to be a viable fantasy option.
WRs Troy Franklin & Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 10: @ KC): Franklin and Vele both failed to come through last week against a Baltimore defense that allows the most WR points per game. I wouldn’t count on a bounce back against the Chiefs, who rank 7th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 9th-fewest WR points per game. If you were desperate to pick one of these WRs to play, I’d lean towards Franklin since he fares better than Vele against man coverage and KC ranks in the top-10 in the NFL in man coverage rate, but neither player is a good option this week.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 10: vs. Buf.): Mitchell was limited to just 4 routes run in week 9 as he logged his lowest route participation rate since week 3. He was targeted just once and turned that target into a 22-yard catch. The switch to Flacco should be better for Mitchell when he’s on the field, but he’s not playing enough that you can count on him even as a deep ball dart throw.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 10: @ Chi.): Polk was down to just an 11% route participation rate in week 9, his lowest mark of the season. Even if that number bounces back a bit this week, the Bears allow the fewest WR points per game.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 10: vs. Pit.): McCaffrey has been targeted just 3 times in the last 4 games. He’s just not involved enough to consider.
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 10: @ Bal.): Burton missed the team walkthrough last Saturday and was a healthy scratch on Sunday as a result, just days after Joe Burrow talked about him playing a bigger role. I’d expect him to be in Zac Taylor’s doghouse for at least a couple weeks. This is a week where Burton would have some sleeper appeal if we knew he would play a meaningful role. Tee Higgins is expected to sit again, and the Ravens allow the most WR points per game. Instead, I’d expect to see a lot of Andrei Iosivas and Trenton Irwin in 3-wide sets if Tee Higgins sits again.
WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 10: @ Ari.): Corley recorded his first touch since week two last Thursday, and it looked like that touch was going to result in a rushing TD, but the rookie dropped the ball short of the goal line and wasn’t heard from again for the rest of the night. The Jets did trade Mike Williams ahead of the deadline this week, and Allen Lazard remains on injured reserve, so the Jets might not have a choice but to start using Corley more, but for now he remains at best the team WR4 behind Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Xavier Gipson. Monitor his usage this week. If there’s a big spike, he may be worth a pickup in the deepest of leagues.
Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 10: @ Ind.): Davis in week 9 played his lowest snap share in about a month (14%), but he posted his second-best fantasy day in the process. He turned just 6 touches on 8 snaps into 90 yards and a TD. I wouldn’t expect that kind of performance to repeat itself if he plays such limited snaps again in week 10, but I think he’s earned more playing time this week against a middling Colts’ run defense that has allowed 120+ rushing yards in 7 of their 9 games this year. James Cook is still going to be on the field for more than 50% of the offensive plays, but this strikes me as a week where we’ll see a lot more Davis than Ty Johnson behind Cook. Don’t be surprised if Davis ends up with double-digit touches, and finds his way to an RB3 performance against a beatable Indy defense.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. NE): Odunze has mostly had a disappointing rookie season, but he showed signs of life last weekend in Arizona as the Bears finally treated him like an important part of the passing game as he finished with 5-104 on 7 targets. I’ve been fooled by Odunze after a big game once before (6-112-1 in week 3), so I’m not going to go all-in on him this week, but if his usage last week carries over, he’s got WR3 upside in a matchup against the Patriots, who rank 30th in pass defense DVOA. It feels like Caleb is due for a bounce back passing effort after a couple down weeks, and if that happens, Odunze will hopefully get some of the benefit. There’s risk here given Odunze’s up and down production this season, but I wouldn’t be afraid to try Rome if you’re in a tight lineup spot due to byes.
WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 10: @ TB): The 49ers could be close to full strength this week with Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and Jauan Jennings all possibly returning, but don’t forget about Pearsall in this offense. The rookie should still be a starter in 3-WR sets with Jennings back, and while the touches could be consolidated to the stars, I expect Pearsall’s role to continue to grow as he gets more NFL reps under his belt. Jauan Jennings isn’t supposed to be a focal point of this passing game, and the 49ers are hoping Pearsall can be the Aiyuk replacement they need. We’ve already seen his big play ability on a 39-yard run against Dallas. There’s risk that Pearsall could be limited to just a handful of targets this week, but the Bucs allow the 7th-most WR points per game, and due to injuries will be starting CBs that opened the season on the 2nd and 3rd-string of the depth chart. Pearsall is probably no more than an upside WR4/5, but the 49ers have one of the higher team totals of the week, and Pearsall should face favorable individual matchups.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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