Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s a new season and hope springs eternal yet again. You get to wipe the slate clean on last year, whether good or bad, and everyone starts from 0-0. With a new season comes a new crop of rookies, the most volatile of fantasy assets. I’ll be here each week to help you parse through what to expect from the first-year players – Is their playing time trending up or down? Are there injuries ahead of them on the depth chart? Is their matchup good or bad? I’ll dig into that each week and give you my recommendations.

If you’re new here, each week I’ll group the rookies into five categories: Rookies you know you should start, borderline rookies I’d lean toward starting, borderline rookies I’d lean toward sitting, rookies you already know you should sit, and then I’ll throw in some deep league sleepers, stashes for the future, or cheap DFS options for the week. Keep in mind that different leagues have different scoring rules, different numbers of teams, and different roster setups. It’s important to read what’s written about each player and apply it to the context of your own league rules and scoring rather than just going off the header they’re grouped under. At the end of the day, it’s ultimately your decision who you start and sit, and you should make the best choice for your own specific circumstances. I’m just here to provide a little extra info to help you make those decisions.

Fair warning for week 1…it’s going to be a little boring. The smart approach with rookies in week 1 is to be conservative, so there aren’t many rookies I’d recommend starting this week. In week 1 of 2023, there was just 1 rookie QB who finished in the top-20 (Anthony Richardson), 2 rookie RBs in the top-30 (Bijan and Roschon Johnson), 4 rookie WRs in the top-40 (Puka, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice, and Zay Flowers), and 2 rookie TEs in the top-20 (LaPorta and Luke Musgrave). That’s just 9 total rookies who posted useful week 1 fantasy performances. Your best bet with guys who aren’t clear starters is to take a wait-and-see approach before plugging them into lineups.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 1…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

WR Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI (Wk. 1: @Buf.): You didn’t draft Marv in the 2^nd round to sit him on the bench in week 1. He’s an every-week starter until there’s a reason for him not to be. The matchup isn’t an easy one. The Bills did lose Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer from their secondary last year, but the starting outside corners this year (Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas) were top-10 corners in PPF coverage grade in 2023 and should keep this a competitive group. Harrison should still see a huge target share as the clear WR1 and should be started with confidence even in this tough matchup.  

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Just like Harrison, you likely didn’t draft Nabers to sit him. He’s going to be the Giants’ clear-cut WR1. Unlike Harrison, he’s saddled with Daniel Jones throwing him the ball. He does face a Viking defense that allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game last season, but the Vikes also brought in two new faces to start at corner – Stephon Gilmore and Shaquill Griffin. Gilmore is two weeks shy of 34 years old, and Griffin was cut by a playoff contender mid-season last year. It’s not a matchup to fear, and Nabers should see plenty of one-on-one opportunities against a Brian Flores defense that blitzed on a whopping 51.5% of opponent plays last year. Nabers should feast if Jones can stay upright long enough and be on target enough to find him.  Those are big ifs, but volume alone should make Nabers should be a solid WR2 option in week 1.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Starting:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 1: @TB): The simple explanation here with Daniels is that rushing production is valuable in fantasy football. Daniels is likely to run a lot, and basically every running QB who faced the Bucs last year found the end zone on the ground (Josh Allen, Desmond Ridder x2, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, and Gardner Minshew all hit paydirt). The Bucs also boast a blitz-happy defense that leaves them vulnerable on the back end. They ranked 3^rd in the NFL in blitz rate in 2023, and as a result they allowed the 2^nd-most 20+ yard completions in the league and the 4^th-most passing yards. Daniels’ mobility will buy him time to exploit those coverage lapses when the Bucs bring the blitz. The weapons are dicey after Terry McLaurin, but I still think Daniels finds his way to a top-12 fantasy finish in his NFL debut in a matchup that seems to play to his strengths.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): This is more of a gut call than anything, but I have a feeling the Chiefs manage to get Worthy lose for a deep ball in the opener. Patrick Mahomes felt handcuffed last season by defenses that played 2-deep shell coverages and forced him to try and pick them apart underneath. He had his worst season as a passer, and in the offseason said, “We didn’t really play football the way we wanted to play all year long…It wasn’t fun.” The team went out this offseason and brought in a couple of burners in Worthy and Hollywood Brown who should be able to take the top off those 2-deep shells and make football fun for Mahomes once again. Hollywood Brown is ruled out this week, so Worthy should be on the field enough to have a floor that won’t kill you if he doesn’t hit a big play, but I think the Chiefs are eager to show off their speedy new weapon and put fear back into opposing defenses that they haven’t felt since Tyreek Hill left for Miami. Worthy is a boom-or-bust WR3 for me this week.

WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (Wk. 1: @Mia.): Thomas is a very tempting option this week for fantasy lineups, especially since Jalen Ramsey is trending towards missing this game for the Dolphins, but there’s a lot of boom-or-bust in Thomas’ game. He specialized in vertical downfield routes, and unlike Xavier Worthy, his low-volume deep threat teammate, Gabe Davis, is going to play this week. I still think Thomas is worth the risk this week as a fringe WR3 against a Miami defense that allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game last year. This recommendation is a bet that BTJ is better at earning targets than Gabe Davis. The volume in this offense is still going to funnel to Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, but Thomas could post a usable week on just a few catches if things go his way.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 1: @LAC): Bowers battled a foot injury throughout camp but looks to be good to go for week 1. The limited camp reps aren’t a great sign for rookie entering his first pro game, but the Raiders still list Bowers as a starter on their official depth chart, and I think he’s quickly going to become one of Gardner Minshew’s favorite targets. Bowers spent 3 years on a powerhouse Georgia team, playing alongside WR teammates like Ladd McConkey, Jermaine Burton, and Adonai Mitchell. Bowers led the Bulldogs in receptions and receiving yards in all 3 seasons he was there. Once you get past the top 7 or 8 tight ends, most of the remaining options are touchdown or bust choices. Bowers is one of the few outside the top-8 with the skills to pile up targets and provide value without finding the end zone. He’s not going to supplant Davante Adams as the top passing game target, but he could move up to #2 quickly. I wouldn’t be afraid to roll with Bowers in week 1 if you don’t have one of those top TE options, especially in PPR formats.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Sitting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): If you’re stuck starting Caleb in a 1-QB league, he probably won’t hurt you this week, I just think there are enough proven QBs with good matchups this week that I wouldn’t consider Caleb a top-12 option. I do think Williams is the real deal, and that the Bears have found their franchise QB, and I’d be happy to start him in superflex formats in week 1, but when you stack up his matchup side-by-side with guys like Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff, and Tua, I just prefer those guys over Caleb for this week. Caleb could certainly prove me wrong – the Titans ranked 24^th in pass defense DVOA last season. If you’re deciding between Williams and another fringy QB1 option this week, trust your gut.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 1: @Sea.): I wouldn’t consider Nix in 1-QB formats, but he’s certainly on the radar in superflex leagues after earning the starting nod for week 1. A year ago, this would’ve been a great spot to trust a player like Nix as your QB2. At Oregon Nix specialized in stressing defenses horizontally rather than vertically. It’s a skillset that meshes well with the offenses Sean Payton ran for Drew Brees at the end of his career and would’ve been great against a bad Seattle defense that ranked 28^th in pass defense DVOA in 2023. Unfortunately for Nix, the Seahawks went out and hired Mike McDonald as head coach in the offseason. McDonald is known for his complex coverage disguises that should be a nightmare for a rookie QB to diagnose. 4 different rookies started at QB against the Ravens in the last 2 seasons (Kenny Pickett, CJ Stroud, Desmond Ridder, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson). None of them reached 11 fantasy points in those starts. Turnovers could also be a concern for Nix as McDonald and new defensive coordinator Alan Durde both come from teams with defenses that excelled at taking the ball away. McDonald’s Ravens led the NFL in takeaways last season, and the Cowboys (with Durde as D-line coach) led the league in takeaways in 2021 and 2022.  I’d look elsewhere for a QB2 this week if you have options.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Odunze could very well prove me wrong and post a strong debut game, but I think early in the season Rome’s target share is going to take a backseat to proven vets DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, similar to how Jaxon Smith-Njigba took a backseat to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett a season ago with this same offensive coordinator (Shane Waldron). You could argue that Keenan Allen’s excellence in the short area of the field is a better fit for the role JSN played last year than Odunze’s skill set, but for at least week 1 I’d rather defer to the veterans. I’d treat Odunze as a WR4 with upside this week.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. LV): McConkey opens the year as the Chargers starting slot receiver, but this Raiders/Chargers tilt is tied for the lowest Vegas point total of the week, and the Chargers’ new coaching staff loves to take the air out of the football and pound it on the ground when they can. The Raiders were in the top-10 in the league last year in zone coverage rate, so McConkey should have plenty of chances to find soft spots in coverage. He ranked 2^nd among this year’s rookie WR class in yards per route run vs zone coverage last year (per Roto Underworld), so it’s a matchup that favors him. I just don’t think there will be enough passing volume or enough downfield targets for McConkey to give you much more than a 5-50 kind of stat line. He’s a viable WR4 option in PPR formats, but I wouldn’t hope for much more than that in week 1.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): The Buffalo Bills pass catching pecking order remains a bit of a mystery as we enter week 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out, and Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins are in alongside returnees Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid’s TE volume seems like it should be stable, but the WR room is a little more in flux. Coleman’s size and 1^st-round draft capital says he should emerge as the alpha WR of the group, but on the initial depth chart he’s been listed as 2^nd string behind Hollins. I still expect Coleman to be on the field a lot in week 1, but the fact that he may play less than a full complement of snaps has me erring on the side of not starting him this week, even in a good matchup with a bad Cardinals’ defense.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Unless you’ve been living under a rock throughout the preseason, you know that Jacoby Brissett is slated to start at QB for the Pats in week 1 despite Maye playing well in camp. With that said, Maye shouldn’t be floating around on the waiver wire in any superflex or 2-QB leagues. If he’s available in your league, or if the person who drafted him gets impatient and drops him early in the year while Brissett is starting, don’t be afraid to pick him up. He's at the top of a short list of backup QBs who can become a starter without an injury in front of them. The Pats’ offensive weapons are uninspiring, but Maye could provide enough value with his legs to make up for the lack of receiving weapons. He’s not a true Konami code QB, but he averaged 550 yards and 8 TDs per season on the ground in his two seasons as starter at UNC. He could be an every-week QB2 once he takes over the starting job.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 1: @Buf.): Benson has all of the skills necessary to develop into an NFL lead back, but the Cardinals’ coaching staff has been adamant that James Conner is their workhorse entering the season. Conner played at least 63% of the offensive snaps in every single win and one-possession loss that he was active for last season and was over 70% in half of them. I’d assume Benson will play most of the snaps that Conner doesn’t, but a 30-35% snap share likely isn’t going to make him very productive when Conner is healthy. Buffalo was a middling run defense last year, so I wouldn’t count on a big day on limited touches for Trey. The good news for Benson is that Conner has played more than 13 games just once in the last 6 years, so he should see some spot starts along the way.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 1: @Det.): Corum enters the season as the Rams’ RB2 behind Kyren Williams. Williams played over 80% of the offensive snaps in 7 of the 12 games he played in last year. I’d expect that to change this year with Corum around to take more of the workload off Kyren’s plate, but this isn’t going to be a 50-50 split early on. It’s still Kyren’s backfield. Corum might be able to work his way into 30-35% of the snaps early in the season, but this week the Rams face a Detroit defense that ranked 1^st in run defense DVOA last year, allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and could have an improved front 7 after adding Marcus Davenport and DJ Reader in the offseason. It’s a terrible matchup to roll Corum out there when he’s playing limited snaps.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Tracy was a popular rookie sleeper pick early on in camp because he basically has just Devin Singletary in front of him on the depth chart, but as usual, Singletary managed to hold off his more highly touted competition and seems in line to enter the season as the clear RB1 for the Giants. Singletary has led his team’s backfield in touches in every single year of his career, beating out more highly touted players like Frank Gore, Zack Moss, James Cook, and Dameon Pierce along the way. Tracy may just be the next guy to add his name to that list. I’d expect Tracy to be playing somewhere in the range of 25-30% of the offensive snaps this week, which just isn’t enough to trust him in lineups.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wek. 1: vs. Bal.): Steele is a fun story after coming out of nowhere to run over defenders in the preseason and bully his way into the Chiefs’ RB2 role, but Kansas City’s addition of Samaje Perine likely means Steele will be limited to a few snaps spelling Isiah Pacheco on early downs. The Ravens ranked 7^th in rtoefense DVOA last season, so I wouldn’t count on those few snaps amounting to much fantasy production in week 1.

RB Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 1: @LAC): Laube is one of my favorite late dart throws in PPR formats this year. He plays for a Vegas team that has a Vegas win total of just 6.5 wins and should be trailing (and therefore throwing) often, and a starting QB in Gardner Minshew who has targeted running backs on 19.5% of his career passes. The Raiders’ starting RB Zamir White is a 2-down grinder who has 32 total receptions since the start of his college career. Laube’s primary competition for the 3^rd-down role is 31-year-old Ameer Abdullah, who has hit 40+ targets in a season just twice in his career. There’s a real chance Laube takes that 3^rd down role early in the year and runs with it. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like he’s going to get the first crack at it this week. He’s currently listed as the team’s RB4 on the depth chart as the Raiders head into a matchup against a Chargers team that allowed the 3^rd-most receptions and 2^nd-most receiving yards per game to running backs last year. He would’ve had a great chance at a splashy debut if he already had the 3^rd down role.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 1: @SF): Allen appears to have cemented himself as the RB2 for the Jets this season, but Breece Hall is going to see the vast majority of the opportunities, and this 49er defense allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game last season.

RB MarShawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 1: @Phi.): Lloyd will likely serve as Josh Jacobs’ primary backup for much of the season, but a hamstring injury has limited his practice time in the last couple weeks and likely means Emanuel Wilson will serve as the team’s RB2 in the opener. If you drafted Lloyd, monitor his usage in this game, but I think he’ll be limited to just a few snaps. Both he and Wilson are listed as questionable this week, so it could be a heavy Josh Jacobs week.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 1: @NO): Leggett could play a meaningful role for the Panthers early in the season, but I think a wait-and-see approach is best for this offense. The WR depth chart after Diontae Johnson is a question mark, but I’d expect Adam Thielen to be on the field more often than not, so Leggett will probably be at best splitting snaps with Jonathan Mingo in week 1. The Panthers’ passing game was a mess last year and the Saints allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game in ‘23, so betting on a rookie who *might* be the WR3 in week 1 seems like a bad bet.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. NE): Burton was a popular sleeper pick after putting up gaudy numbers against 3^rd & 4^th stringers in the preseason, but recent reports from beat writers have dumped cold water on the excitement. The Athletic’s Paul Dehner speculated that the Bengals could treat this as a redshirt season for Burton and that he may be as low as 6^th on the WR depth chart to open the season. “The bottom line is he can’t be running the wrong route as often as occurred in practice and preseason games (even on plays he made),” Dehner wrote. “The Bengals won’t put him out there – or even make him active on gameday – until they feel comfortable he’s preparing in meetings, will be in the right spots and can be trusted by the quarterback.” Burton apparently has a long way to go to be relevant as a rookie.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Polk enters the season as the WR4 on the Patriots’ depth chart, behind Tyquan Thornton, Demario Douglas, and KJ Osborn. There’s nothing about that group that says Polk can jump into a starting role early in the year, but there likely won’t be enough production to go around early in the year with Jacoby Brissett at QB. Keep Polk benched until the Patriots show us they can put up stats in the passing game.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Wilson was expected to be an important part of the Steelers’ offense after he was picked in the 3^rd round in April, but a sprained ankle suffered in camp took away valuable practice time. He’ll open the season as the WR4 behind both Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin. Arthur Smith’s low volume passing attack makes him a less-than-ideal stash option in redraft leagues.

WR Jacob Cowing, SF (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): Cowing could’ve been staring at some early season opportunity between Brandon Aiyuk’s holdout and a horrible incident where teammate Ricky Pearsall was shot in the chest, but Aiyuk is now re-signed, and that window might’ve slammed shut for now. The 49ers depth chart seems set with Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk, and 3^rd WR Jauan Jennings starting. If Aiyuk loses any week 1 snaps due to the rust of not practicing throughout camp, I’d expect those to go to veteran Chris Conley rather than Cowing. If Cowing doesn’t earn some playing time before Pearsall returns, I wouldn’t expect much from him all year.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 1: @TB): Sinnott could take over as the starting tight end in Washington before long, but for week 1 he’s listed at 3^rd on the depth chart behind both Zach Ertz and John Bates. It shouldn’t take long to vanquish Bates, but with Ertz it just depends on how much juice the 33-year-old vet has left. I’d be taking a wait-and-see approach with Sinnott in week 1, even against a Tampa defense that allowed the 4^th-most TE points per game a year ago.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 1: @NO): Sanders is likely the best tight end on the Panthers’ roster, but he opens the year as the TE3 behind Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas. He’ll earn a bigger role as the season progresses, but there’s no reason to put him in lineups yet.

Other notable rookies who open the year buried on the depth chart or hurt: QB Michael Penix Jr., ATL, RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR, RB Will Shipley, PHI, RB Kimani Vidal, LAC, RB Isaac Guerendo, SF, RB Blake Watson, DEN, RB Isaiah Davis, NYJ, WR Ricky Pearsall, SF, WR Brendan Rice, LAC, WR Javon Baker, NE, WR Malachi Corley, NYJ, WR Devontez Walker, BAL, WR Troy Franklin, DEN, TE Erick All, CIN, TE Cade Stover, HOU

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): Davis enters week 1 as the Bills’ RB2, but it’s an RB2 role that could come with some high-value touches. The Bills haven’t been keen on trusting the undersized James Cook in goal line situations – Cook carried the ball just 5 times last year from the opponent’s 5-yard line or closer. Backup Latavius Murray handled 12 such carries despite having only a third as many total rushing attempts as Cook. If Davis takes over that same Murray role, he’s going to have some touchdown upside in this game where the Bills have the highest Vegas implied point total of the week. The Cardinals ranked 30^th last season in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5^th-most rushing TDs in the league. There won’t be a ton of volume for Davis this week unless this game turns into a blowout, but there’s a real shot at finding paydirt.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): Irving isn’t getting much of a look in redraft leagues – he’s being drafted outside of the top 50 RBs – but he probably should be getting more love. The coaches have been raving about his work ethic in camp, and the established starter, Rachaad White, was one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL last year. White ranked 40^th out of 48 qualified backs in yards per attempt last season. He was much more effective as a receiver, but if Bucky can be effective on the ground he could replace White as the 1A back in this committee. Coach Todd Bowles said the running back rotation is going to be handled week-to-week based on who has the hot hand. It’s open to interpretation if he meant the rotation behind White, or if he’s including White in that statement. Given how ineffective White was on the ground last year, I think there’s a real opportunity for Bucky to lead the Bucs in rushing this season. He shouldn’t be sitting on waiver wires in 12-team leagues.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): The Dolphins had two of the best running backs in fantasy last season in Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. The pair also both have extensive injury histories and Wright is an explosive runner. The Dolphins love speed, and Wright fits the bill, running a 4.38 forty-yard dash. He’s exactly the kind of back that can put up efficient production in the Dolphins’ offense if he gets the opportunity. Now he just needs the opportunity. I don’t expect it to come in week 1, but he should be stashed in most formats.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): McMillan has won the starting WR3 job for the Bucs in camp and gets rewarded with a week 1 matchup against arguably the worst CB group in the NFL. Rookie Mike Sainristil looks like he’ll start at nickel and could be an upgrade to the group, but the Bucs plan on playing Chris Godwin as their primary slot receiver. That means McMillan will be squaring off with Benjamin St. Juste or Emmanuel Forbes most of the time, and both players ranked outside the top-90 cornerbacks in the NFL in PFF coverage grade last year. The Commanders ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA and allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game in 2023. McMillan will still be at best 3^rd in line for passing targets behind Mike Evans and Godwin, but this is a matchup where that could lead to a top-40 finish at the position.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): All signs are pointing to Josh Downs missing week 1 against the Texans, and that means Adonai Mitchell is likely to be a full-time player in the opener. Mitchell was a mercurial prospect at Texas, sometimes looking like the best player on the field (even better than 1^st round pick Xavier Worthy), and other times looking disinterested. If Mitchell can be the best version of himself more consistently, he could be a star in the NFL. Michael Pittman has established himself as the Colts’ WR1, but Pittman has thrived on shorter passes and has never ranked in the top-70 WRs in average target depth according to Roto Underworld. There’s a legitimate chance that Mitchell is better suited for the true alpha role than Pittman – he just needs to step up and take it from him. There’s a ton of risk of a bad game here – high passing volume is never a certainty with A-Rich starting at QB, and Pittman is the more proven target - but if Downs doesn’t play, a boom week for Mitchell could make him a top-24 finisher for the week. The Texans have beefed up their defense this offseason, but they ranked just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA a year ago.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 1: @TB): It remains to be seen what McCaffrey’s week 1 role is going to look like, but the Commanders’ week 1 depth chart manages to list him as both first string and second string at the same time. At this point it appears that all of McCaffrey, Olamide Zacchaeus, and Dyami Brown will play some snaps alongside Terry McLaurin, but it’s anyone’s guess how those snaps will be divided. With Kliff Kingsbury as OC, we could see a lot of 3- and 4-wide sets and higher passing volume than you might expect with a mobile rookie QB. McCaffrey should be the guy running the higher percentage short routes out of this WR group, which could open the door for him to have some sneaky PPR upside in this one. I wouldn’t expect a high ceiling but wouldn’t be shocked if he posted double-digit PPR points.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Johnson is listed as the TE2 on the Giants’ week 1 depth chart, but reports throughout camp were that he was the best tight end on the team. He’s a physical freak – he stands 6’6”, weighs 259 pounds, and ran a 4.57 forty-yard dash. He’s exactly the kind of athlete you’re looking for when targeting sleeper tight ends. He’s no more than a touchdown dart throw in week 1, but he’s a guy with a lot of upside if you’re weak at tight end and looking for someone to stash.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an eventful first two weeks. If your fantasy squad hasn’t been bitten by the injury bug yet, count yourself lucky. The list of fantasy starters who have missed and will miss time is lengthy – Tua Tagovailoa, Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, AJ Brown, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Evan Engram, Jake Ferguson – for some teams it’s been a bloodbath, but injuries to proven fantasy studs usually means rookies you wouldn’t have dared to start before are now in consideration. I’m here to help you parse through the rookies if any of them are on your radar as injury fill-ins.

Week 2 saw breakout games for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers continuing to rack up targets for Las Vegas, Braelon Allen finding the end zone twice, and Caleb Williams and Bo Nix taking baby steps forward. There’s a lot more in store for week 3, so let’s not waste any more time recapping what you already know.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s tackle week 3…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cin.): Daniels has yet to find the end zone through the air this season, and it hurt his fantasy output last week when he finished as just the QB18, but what we’ve seen across the NFL has me even more convinced that Daniels should be treated as a weekly top-12 QB. Passing production is down league-wide, Daniels’ rushing production gives him a nice floor each week, and he’s executing well within what he’s being asked to do in this offense. Through 2 weeks, the rookie has completed 75.5% of his passes and hasn’t turned the ball over. If he keeps doing that, we’re going to see better passing days in the future. This week he faces a Cincinnati defense that has allowed just 136 passing yards per game, but they also rank just 15^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA stat and have given up 32 and 29 rushing yards to Jacoby Brissett and Patrick Mahomes, respectively. If those guys are running for 30-ish yards, Daniels has a decent chance to break 60 on the ground. You’re not going to find many QBs with more upside than Daniels offers on a week-to-week basis.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): I hope all of you Marvin Harrison Jr. drafters out there didn’t panic and bench the rookie after his week 1 dud, because week 2 was sensational. Harrison put up over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns in just the 1^st quarter against the Rams last Sunday en route to an overall WR1 finish for the week, and it should be just the beginning of a fantastic career. He gets a favorable matchup in week 3 against a Detroit defense that has given up a 20-point WR fantasy game in each of the last two weeks. I wouldn’t count on quite the same kind of blowup game this week, but Harrison should have a WR2 floor against a young Detroit secondary that’s still finding it’s way.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Nabers wasn’t quite as explosive as Marv in week 2, but he wasn’t far behind, finishing the week as the WR3 after putting up 10-127-1 on an absurd 18 targets (a 67% target share!!). After facing the Commanders’ barely there secondary, he’s going to find the sledding to be much tougher against the Browns in week 3. You still can’t sit him given the kind of volume he’s seeing, but I’d expect this week’s performance to be closer to his week 1 output than his week 2 output. Cleveland ranked 2^nd in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game. They’ve been a little worse than that through 2 weeks this year (10^th in DVOA, 15^th-most WR points allowed), but Daniel Jones isn’t on the same level as the two QBs the Browns have faced this year (Dak & Trevor Lawrence). Nabers should be treated like a solid WR3 this week with upside for more.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): It’s taken just two weeks into his rookie season for Bowers to reach auto-start status. The guys we expected to be the studs of the position – Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta, Kincaid – have all underwhelmed through two weeks. Meanwhile, Bowers has been a focal point of the Raiders’ offense, racking up 16 targets so far in an offense that should continue to lean pass-heavy. This week he gets to face a Carolina defense that coughed up TDs to Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson in week 1 and should continue to struggle on the defensive side of the ball even if Andy Dalton improves their offense. Bowers has posted back-to-back top-5 finishes to start his career, and should be treated as a safe bet to finish highly again this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ind.): This is only applicable to superflex leagues, but I like Caleb Williams to post his best game as a pro this week against a terrible Colts’ defense that is without their best pass rusher (DeForest Buckner). If you’ve been looking at box scores, you know the Colts have coughed up over 150 rushing yards to both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs this year, but did you know they also rank just 29^th in pass defense DVOA for the season? This is a defense that can be beat in multiple ways, and I don’t expect the Bears’ RBs who have totaled just 85 rushing yards in 2 games to duplicate the rushing efforts we saw from Mixon and Jacobs, so Caleb will have chances to pick on them through the air. Williams looked sharp on the opening drive last week before the Texans started blitzing, and I expect the Bears to have better answers for the blitz in this one against an Indy team that has a lot less pass rushing firepower than the Texans. I think Caleb has a real chance to post 250 and 2 scores in this game.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): With Rachaad White suffering a groin injury last week in Detroit, Irving could be in line for a bigger workload in a game where the Bucs are a touchdown favorite against a Denver team that has allowed the 11^th-most RB points so far. If White misses this game, or you get a sense that he’s going to see a limited workload as a result of his injury, Irving has potential to finish as a top-24 back in a favorable matchup. Bucky has handled just over a third of the running back snaps and carries so far this year, and if you throw away Irving’s 31-yard TD run in week 1, he’s STILL averaging a yard and a half more per carry than Rachaad this season. If White is going to be less than 100% this week, the Bucs should give the rookie a real chance to lead the way. If White is going to be limited, I’d treat Bucky as an RB3 with upside. If White’s out, Bucky is an RB2.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 3: @Pit.): McConkey’s week 2 output was less than stellar in a game against Carolina where the Chargers just didn’t have to throw much. Things get a little tougher this week with LA a 2-point underdog to the Steelers, so game script should be much more neutral, and McConkey should be able to avoid Joey Porter Jr.’s coverage in the slot. Quentin Johnston should draw Porter’s coverage instead. Porter has mostly erased the opposing team’s WR1 in the first 2 weeks (Drake London: 2-15-0 on 3 targets, Courtland Sutton: 1-26-0 on 4 targets), but slot receivers have had a lot more success against Pittsburgh. Ray Ray McCloud put up 4-52-0 on 7 targets in week 1, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey tallied 4-50-0 on 5 targets in week 2. McConkey is a better receiver and has a better QB than either of those two slot guys. I’d treat 4-50 as the floor here, which makes McConkey a viable WR3 this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ind.): If you read what I wrote about Caleb Williams above, you know I like the Bears to have as much success throwing the ball as they have all year, and that yardage has to go to someone. Keenan Allen is expected to be sidelined again this week, so Odunze and DJ Moore should be on the field for nearly every play. The Colts’ secondary has been in shambles, allowing a 78.3% completion rate and nearly 10 yards per completion. This is setting up as a spot where Odunze could have a breakout game, but part of me worries about whether OC Shane Waldron will let it happen. With Keenan Allen out last week, it was a perfect opportunity for the Bears to showcase Odunze, and instead they were scheming up looks for Gerald Everett and DeAndre Carter. Waldron was very slow to trust 1^st-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year too, so I’m hoping this isn’t a trend. I still like Odunze as an upside WR4 this week if you can stomach plugging in a player with less than 4 PPR points per game in the first 2 weeks.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 3: @TB): If you’re in a pinch this week in a superflex league, you can probably get away with starting Nix, but I’d view him as an option at the tail end of the top 24 QBs for the week. Volume has been the best signal for Nix’s fantasy value through 2 games – he’s attempted 38.5 passes per game - but his paltry 5 yards per attempt means that volume isn’t even adding up to 200 passing yards on average. At a quick glance, this looks like a great matchup on paper. The Bucs have allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game so far, but 53.4% of the fantasy points they’ve allowed this year were rushing points for Jayden Daniels in week 1. Neither QB they’ve faced has thrown a touchdown or reached 11 points of passing production against them. The Bucs rank 13^th in pass defense DVOA and should continue to make things tough on Nix through the air. Nix’s rushing upside and passing volume provide some hope for him to produce a quality QB2 performance where you could plug him in if you need to, but I would temper expectations.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 3: @Atl.): The Chiefs learned this week that they’ll be without RB Isiah Pacheco for possibly up to 2 months, leaving a huge void in their offense. They went out and signed Kareem Hunt on Tuesday, but he’ll likely take a couple weeks to get ramped up, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still on IR, leaving the backfield to Steele and Samaje Perine in the meantime. There’s been a lot of speculation about what this backfield will look like without Pacheco, and I think it’ll be messy once Hunt is ramped up and CEH returns, but it should be fairly predictable until then. Steele has out-snapped Perine 6 to 0 in short down & distance situations, and Perine has out-snapped Steele 9 to 1 in long down & distance situations. The only long down & distance snap Steele played was one where he took a handoff up the middle to better position the Chiefs for their game-winning field goal last Sunday. We should see a standard division of duties in this backfield where Steele handles the bulk of the early down work, and Perine handles most of the passing down work. There will be some slight deviation from that to avoid being too predictable, but by and large, that’s how it should go. Being the lead rusher for the Chiefs always carries some TD upside with it, but I wouldn’t expect a huge yardage total against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 6^th-fewest RB points per game this year and 5^th-fewest last year. Treat Steele like a TD-dependent flex option.

WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Thomas has rewarded fantasy managers who were willing to roll the dice on him the first two weeks, logging WR18 and WR27 finishes in the first two games despite tallying just 4 targets in each. If you want to roll those dice again, I wouldn’t fault you. You only need BTJ and T-Law to connect once or twice to give you a useful fantasy day with the downfield targets he’s been seeing, but this Buffalo defense has made life tough on top receivers so far. They held Marvin Harrison Jr. to 1 catch for 4 yards in the opener and had mostly contained Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last week even before Tua exited the game with a concussion. Neither receiver made it to 50 scrimmage yards. I don’t feel great about the prospects of Thomas connecting on more big plays in this one.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Jax.): Coleman was frustratingly targeted just once in the Bills’ win last week over the Dolphins, but there are some reasons for optimism here. He led the Bills’ receivers for the second straight week with a 90% route participation rate, and his low target total was as much a result of the team’s low passing volume as anything. Josh Allen attempted just 19 passes in a game that wasn’t competitive early and got less competitive when Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion. The Bills are solid 5 and a half-point favorites this week, but I don’t see this game being quite as non-competitive. The Jaguars’ pass defense has had a clear weakness through the first two weeks of the season – the right side of the field. They rank 28^th in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to the right, with both their right CB Montaric Brown and his safety help over the top struggling. Coleman has spent about half of his snaps this year lined up to the right, so he should see plenty of opportunities against that weak right side. The Bills passing game is going to spread the ball around quite a bit, but Coleman should get enough work to be worth consideration as a WR4. The only reason I’m hesitant to recommend starting him is the floor we saw last week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 3: @Atl.): Cam Taylor-Britt wrote a check with his mouth last week that I did not expect him to cash on Sunday, but he more than backed up his Xavier Worthy trash talk, holding the rookie to just 2 catches for 17 yards and making an incredible one-handed interception in the process. Worthy was supposed to be the burner that gave Patrick Mahomes the ability to push the ball down the field again and beat 2-deep shell coverages, but two weeks in, Mahomes is doing more dinking and dunking than ever. Mahomes’ 5.1-yard aDOT this year would be easily the lowest of his career. You already know Worthy isn’t going to be a high-volume target for Mahomes – he’s totaled just 7 targets and 2 rushing attempts through 2 games – so you need splash plays and TDs to get value from him in your lineup. Mahomes’ conservative approach, and safety Jessie Bates looming over the top in coverage have me thinking this won’t be a great week to trust Worthy to make a big play. The Falcons have allowed just 2 completions of 20+ yards through 2 weeks.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 3: @LV): The Panthers have made the move to bench Bryce Young this week in an effort to try and fix their broken passing game that totaled just 255 yards in the first two weeks (35 of which have gone to Legette). Dalton is at least a competent NFL QB, but he’ll be dealing with the same scheme, same o-line, and same pass catchers that Bryce had to work with. I do expect some modest immediate improvement this week, especially facing off against a Vegas defense that ranks 23^rd in pass defense DVOA, but if you’re willing to take a chance on Dalton feeding Legette this week given what we’ve seen from the Panthers in the first two weeks, you’re braver than I am.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Mitchell’s usage through two weeks has teased the upside he has in this offense with cannon-armed Anthony Richardson at the helm, but it just hasn’t turned into production so far. He’s earned 9 targets that have traveled on average more than 18 yards down the field, but he’s pulled in just 2 of them for 32 yards. Meanwhile, fellow deep threat Alec Pierce has pulled in 8 of 10 targets for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns. All signs point to Josh Downs being active this week. Michael Pittman isn’t going to be the one to lose playing time to get Downs on the field, so that means one of Pierce or Mitchell will, and given how the first two weeks have gone, I’d expect it to be Mitchell. He’ll likely still be involved and could see a couple targets, but his route participation rate should drop below 50% after being right around 70% for the first two weeks. His only path to fantasy relevance this week is to score a TD, preferably a long one.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Jax.): The box score will show you that Davis touched the ball 10 times in week 2, and that might get you excited about his growing role, but I regret to inform you that not much changed from week 1. Davis is still splitting backup work with Ty Johnson, and 6 of his 10 touches came in the 4^th quarter with the Bills up by 3 touchdowns. The value proposition with Davis was that he would get valuable goal line carries, but through two weeks, the Bills have run 7 offensive snaps inside the 10-yard line – 1 incomplete pass to Keon Coleman, 3 rushes by James Cook, and 3 rushes by Josh Allen. There’s not a lot of fantasy upside in getting a handful of rushing attempts with no goal line work even in a good matchup. The Jaguars have been a middling RB defense so far, allowing the 14^th-most points per game to the position.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Wright got his first taste of NFL action last week, and it didn’t go according to plan. He totaled just 4 yards on 5 carries with Raheem Mostert sidelined, and the Dolphins lost their QB in the process. Mostert is practicing this week as of Wednesday, so it’s possible Wright will go back to being inactive on gameday, but if he’s active, I wouldn’t expect much more opportunity than he got last week. If the Dolphins want to be competitive without Tua, they’re going to have to lean on De’Von Achane as much as possible, so I wouldn’t expect more than a handful of touches for Wright against what has been a much-improved Seattle defense. There’s always a chance Wright breaks a big play, but the floor here is zero points.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): Benson got a little extra work in week 2 with the Cardinals surprisingly blowing out the Rams, but he was largely ineffective with the extra carries, putting up just 10 rushing yards on 11 totes. He should be back to his normal workload this week – just a handful of touches – against a Detroit defense that ranks 9^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 3: @LAR): The 49ers got some bad news this week that WR Deebo Samuel is dealing with a calf strain and is likely to miss a couple weeks, but that news could provide a small bump to Guerendo’s playing time while he’s out. The 49ers use Deebo as the change of pace back more often when Christian McCaffrey is out, so Deebo’s absence means they’ll be forced to use Guerendo when Jordan Mason needs a breather. I don’t foresee a ton of playing time this for Isaac unless the game gets out of hand – he was out-snapped by Mason last weekend 24 to 1 – but I’d be surprised if he’s limited to just a snap or two again.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Tracy’s snap share stayed stable from week 1 to week 2, checking in right around 20% again last Sunday, but he was limited to just 1 touch against the Commanders after handling 2 carries and 2 targets in the opener. He’s not going to help your fantasy squad much with fewer than 5 touches.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 3: vs. SF): On paper, it looks like Corum saw a huge leap in playing time last weekend, carrying 8 times for 28 yards after not playing a single snap in week 1. If you look closer, you’ll see that all 8 of those carries came in the 4^th quarter with the Rams trailing 41-10. He didn’t play a snap before LA was in a 31-point hole. The uptick in touches isn’t a change in Corum’s role. Keep him parked on the bench.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 3: @Ten.): Lloyd returned in week 2 from a preseason hamstring injury that sidelined him for the opener, but he left the game with a new ankle injury that could sideline him for week 3. He’s already sharing backup work with Emmanuel Wilson behind bell-cow back Josh Jacobs. The new injury just further cements that he shouldn’t be in lineup consideration this week.

Update: Lloyd was placed on IR and is out until at least week 7

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 3: @NYJ): Don’t be fooled by the TD Polk scored last week. He still was targeted just 3 times and is an ancillary weapon in a low volume passing attack. The Pats face the Jets this week, who have been off to a sluggish start on defense but ranked 3^rd in pass defense DVOA a season ago. I wouldn’t count on Polk finding the end zone again this week.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cin.): McCaffrey continued to operate as one of the Commanders’ clear top-3 WRs last weekend in terms of playing time, but figuring out who gets the opportunities in this offense after Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz looks like it’ll be a weekly crapshoot. McCaffrey was targeted just once last Sunday while Dyami Brown, Olamide Zacchaeus, and Noah Brown were each targeted 3 times. When the ceiling case for McCaffrey is likely 4-5 targets, you should be looking elsewhere for your starting WRs. He doesn’t get the kind of deep targets that can result in strong production with that volume.

WR Jacob Cowing, SF (Wk. 3: @LAR): Deebo Samuel is expected to miss a couple games with a calf strain, but I wouldn’t expect Cowing to see much of an increase in usage as a result. Ronnie Bell and Chris Conley have both been running ahead of Cowing as the team’s WR4 and 5, and I’d expect that duo to play the majority of the WR3 snaps this week, though I expect we’ll see fewer 3-WR sets and more Kyle Juszczyk than normal while Deebo is out.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. LAC): Wilson was inactive again in week 2 as he works his way back from injury. He missed significant practice time in the latter weeks of training camp prior to missing the last two weeks, so I’d expect there to be a ramp up period of at least a few weeks once he’s able to suit up before we’ll see him utilized in anything close to a full-time role. He could be active in week 3, but he shouldn’t be in your lineup.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. NE): Corley ran his first route of the season last week and caught a pass for 4 yards on that play. He did not run a 2^nd route. Malachi remains buried on the Jets’ depth chart for now.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): All posted a quietly positive game last week in his first extended NFL action, tallying 4 catches for 32 yards against the Chiefs, but it’s not production I would count on repeating itself in week 3. The Bengals made a point to avoid going after Kansas City’s stingy outside corners and attacked them with the tight end position after watching Isaiah Likely shred their secondary in week 1. Four different Cincy tight ends logged route participation rates of over 25% in week 2. In fact, All’s 27% rate was the lowest of the 4, and his 4 targets were just 4 of 16 total tight end targets for the Bengals on Sunday. This week’s opponent, the Commanders, are much more vulnerable at cornerback than KC. The Commanders have allowed just 1 catch for 5 yards to opposing tight ends through 2 weeks, while coughing up 18+ fantasy points to 3 different wide receivers in that span. This should be a big week for Ja’Marr Chase, and not for the Cincy tight ends.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 3: @Cle.): I was optimistic about Johnson after week one when he earned 4 targets and logged a 76% route participation rate, but the Giants made two changes in week two that make me much less bullish on Theo in the immediate future. The first is that they decided to keep their tight end in to block more often to help protect Daniel Jones. Johnson ran 38 routes in week 1 and logged just 8 pass blocking snaps. In week 2, those numbers were 16 routes and 12 pass blocking snaps. The second thing the Giants did was realize that they should be throwing to Malik Nabers as much as humanly possible. Nabers had a 67% target share in week 2. We won’t see that absurd number every week, but I expect the ball to go to Nabers often enough that there just isn’t enough leftover receiving work for Johnson to be a start-able fantasy tight end.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 3: @LV): The Panthers’ passing game could get a much-needed shot in the arm this week with the switch at QB to veteran Andy Dalton, but Tommy Tremble’s week 2 return from injury means Sanders probably won’t benefit much. Sanders did see his target total double from 1 in week 1 to 2 in week 2, but his playing time went in the opposite direction with Tremble active. Sanders’ route participation rate dropped from 69% to 51% while Tremble earned a 45% share and 4 targets against the Chargers. Anything’s possible if this passing game looks drastically different with Dalton, but I’d bet against Sanders, who has totaled just 12 yards on 42 routes run.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Spann-Ford played ahead of Luke Schoonmaker in week 1, but that changed in week 2 with starting tight end Jake Ferguson sidelined. Both players logged uninspiring route totals, but Schoonmaker ran 15 routes to just 12 for Spann-Ford, and the 2^nd-year tight end out-targeted the rookie 6 to 1. Schoonmaker is the only Dallas tight end who should be in fantasy consideration if Ferguson is out again.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cin.): Like it or not, this is Zach Ertz’s job until further notice. Sinnott has run just 3 target-less routes in each of his first two NFL games.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. NE): I know, this is probably a week late and going to feel like point chasing after Allen piled up 56 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs last Sunday, but I’m listing him here because I don’t think his usage was a fluke or was a result of Breece Hall being banged up. In week 1, we only saw Allen in garbage time vs the 49ers, but in week 2, he played a full drive in the 2^nd quarter and mixed in regularly in the 2^nd half in a game that never had a margin of more than 7 points, and he made the most of the opportunities. I’m not saying that Allen is going to usurp Breece Hall at any point this season, but rather that I think there could be room for both to be fantasy relevant. Nathaniel Hackett was the OC and Aaron Rodgers was the QB in Green Bay in 2021 and 2022, when Aaron Jones was finishing as a top-12 RB and teammate AJ Dillon was finishing in the top-30, and I think we could see something similar play out here with Allen as that RB2. I don’t love the matchup this week with New England boasting a solid defense so far (allowing the 11^th-fewest RB points per game), but Allen shouldn’t be sitting on waiver wires, and he’s likely going to be instrumental in getting through bye weeks for some teams, and he could have RB1 upside if anything happens to Breece.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): There haven’t been a ton of targets for McMillan through two weeks, but his targets have consistently been downfield, and he could see some extra looks come his way this week with Mike Evans likely to draw shadow coverage from Pat Surtain Jr. Surtain limited DK Metcalf to 3-29 on 4 targets in week 1, and George Pickens to 2-29 on 4 targets last week, and Baker Mayfield hasn’t been the type of QB to force the ball into coverage in his time in Tampa. That should mean Chris Godwin’s hot streak to start the year continues, but also that Jalen McMillan should set a new season-high in targets. McMillan leads the team in routes run and should tangle mostly with 2^nd-year pro Riley Moss, who has allowed 9 completions for 94 yards on 13 throws into his coverage. Those 9 completions account for 29% of all completions against the Broncos this season. If you’re in a bad spot at WR this week due to injuries, McMillan is a guy who isn’t projected to score a lot of points but is set up for a potentially strong week. 

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 3: @TB): In case you forgot about Vele, the rookie hauled in 8 receptions in week 1 before sitting in week 2 with a rib injury. He’s practicing in a limited capacity as of Wednesday, and his matchup this week with Tampa could be a decent one. The Bucs rank just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA the short passes, and if he’s active, Vele should once again feast on short throws in what has been a high-volume passing game (77 attempts through 2 weeks). I wouldn’t count on Vele breaking 50 yards, but he should dink and dunk his way to a respectable PPR game if you’re in a pinch.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 3: vs. SF): After significant injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the last two games, Whittington suddenly finds himself in a prominent role in an LA offense that still boasts Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. I wouldn’t plug him into lineups this week in a tough matchup with the 49ers. Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson are going to be the top 2 WRs in this offense for now, and Whittington will split WR3 snaps with Tutu Atwell until he separates from him, but we saw the Rams give Whittington volume in the preseason and they’ve tried to get him a couple manufactured touches in the regular season as well. There’s room for him to climb the depth chart if he makes the most of his opportunities, and he shouldn’t be sitting on dynasty waiver wires outside of the shallowest leagues.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): This is probably moot if Tee Higgins is able to return this week, but Burton has some sneaky potential in this matchup if Higgins is sidelined again. Burton is still just an ancillary role player in this offense (he ran just 8 routes last week), but he’s shown the ability to be a deep threat in college, in the preseason, and again last week when he caught a deep ball for 46 yards, and now he gets to face off with the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Commanders have given up 18+ points to 3 different receivers in the first two weeks of the season and have allowed 7 completions of 20+ yards. Ja’Marr Chase is probably going to post a blow-up game this week, but this is a spot where Burton could do some real damage on just 8-10 routes run if a couple deep balls connect.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it one-sixth of the way through the NFL season and the fantasy picture is starting to come into clearer focus. We now have a 3-game sample to assess which fast starts are for real and which ones are not and adjust accordingly. It’s been a sluggish start for much of the rookie crop. Yes, there have been huge successes like Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr., but there have also been disappointments like Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, Trey Benson, and until this week Rome Odunze. Consistency will come with time and reps, but for now the number of rookies that are providing useful weekly performances in typical leagues is a bit limited.

This week’s report is going to be a bit shorter than usual due to some personal time constraints I have this week, but I promise there’s still plenty to talk about and we should be back to normal next week. I’m just cutting out some backup running backs and tight ends that aren’t playing enough for consideration.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s talk week 4…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 4: @ Ari.): If you missed the late Monday Night Football game the other night, you missed a heck of a coming out party for Jayden Daniels. Daniels was efficient in the first two weeks of the season, but didn’t really take many chances pushing the ball downfield. In week 3 he was surgical, completing 91% of his passes for over 250 yards and 2 scores, and he added another 39 yards and a score with his legs. He turned the field goal drives from week 2 into touchdowns in week 3, and he’s now gone two straight games with a score on every single drive (excluding kneel down drives). Arizona’s defense has done a nice job against veterans Matt Stafford and Jared Goff in the last 2 weeks, but Daniels is playing efficient football and should be treated as a top-8 QB option against the Cardinals.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): Harrison is a top-5 wide receiver play this week against the awful Commanders secondary. Marv has been at a 30% or better target share in each of the last 2 weeks, and that could creep even higher this week if Trey McBride is out. Every WR1 who has faced the Commanders this year has put up at least 23 PPR points.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Dal.): I wasn’t surprised when Nabers shredded the Commanders’ secondary in week 2. I was at least a little surprised when he did the same to the talented Browns’ secondary in week 3, posting his second consecutive top-4 PPR finish. The Cowboys have allowed just the 10^th-fewest WR points per game so far, but Nabers is an auto-start WR1 until he gives us a reason to think otherwise.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Don’t be alarmed by Bowers’ underwhelming performance in week 3. It’s a little concerning that he logged his lowest route participation rate of the season, but he should remain a focal point of the offense going forward. His 7.1 PPR points for the week were less than 2 points short of a top-10 finish, and still higher than the averages we’ve seen this year for Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Sam LaPorta. Bowers remains a locked-in top-10 TE play going forward.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): It didn’t translate into a victory, but Caleb Williams posted his best day yet as a passer in week 3, racking up 363 yards and 2 TDs in Indy. He also threw 2 interceptions, and his comeback efforts fell short, but the QB13 finish for the week was promising. This week he faces a Rams’ defense that ranks 31^st in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game. We saw last week that Caleb can rack up stats against a lackluster pass defense, and he gets a chance to do it again this week. I’d treat him as a clear starter in 2-QB and superflex formats and would be comfortable starting him in 1-QB formats if you don’t feel great about your starting option this week.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 4: @ LAC): Don’t be alarmed by the news that Kareem Hunt will be active in week 4. He takes the roster spot of Keaontay Ingram, who played zero snaps last week. He could mix in for a few plays and his role may grow in the coming weeks, but this should remain Steele’s backfield for now. The backfield split played out pretty much as I expected it to in week 3, with Steele leading the way and playing the bulk of the early down and short down & distance snaps, and Samaje Perine playing most of the 2-minute and long down & distance snaps. I expect a similar breakdown this week, but with Kansas City favored by 7.5-points, there should be plenty of opportunities for Steele to run the ball. The Chargers have been strong against the run so far, ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, but Steele is going to get enough volume that he should be a viable RB2 this week. I like him better in half and non-PPR formats than I do in full PPR.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Den.): As I mentioned in this article last week, Allen’s week 2 breakout game wasn’t a fluke. The usage was for real. After seeing 11 opportunities in week 2, Allen saw 14 of them in week 3 and finished as a top-30 back again. Breece Hall is still the unquestioned leader of this backfield, but Allen should get enough work against a middling Denver run defense that he’s a reasonable RB3/flex option this week, and he’s going to be a valuable bye week fill-in in the coming weeks. The Broncos have allowed 2 backs to finish in the top-36 PPR backs for the week in each of their 3 games this season.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): Odunze benefitted from Caleb’s breakout passing performance last week with a breakout performance of his own. The Bears finally used Rome as a key cog in their passing game – he earned a 24% target share and huge 49% air yardage share against the Colts and finished as the WR7 for the week with a 6-112-1 line – and he should be in line for another strong day this week against a bad Rams’ defense. The Rams have allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game, and Odunze should be treated as a fringe WR2 in the plus matchup. Two caveats I want to mention here though…keep an eye on Keenan Allen’s injury report. Odunze should be downgraded to a fringe WR3 if Allen is able to play. And keep an eye on the weather report. September in Chicago can be wet and windy, and it looks like there’s a chance of a rainy Sunday as of now (Wednesday).

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 4: @ Hou.): Through 3 games this season, Thomas has finished as a top-40 PPR WR three times, and I think there’s a strong chance he makes it 4-for-4 this week. The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog this week and will likely be throwing a bunch, and they’ve made a point to get the ball to Thomas on deep balls and off play action. The Texans have allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game and looked vulnerable downfield in week 1 when they allowed 3 completions of 50+ yards to the Colts. Thomas should be involved enough to compile his way to a fringe WR3 day even if he doesn’t catch a long ball, but you’ll be kicking yourself if he’s sitting on your bench and that long ball does connect.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. KC): The final result in week 3 didn’t look great for McConkey – he posted 3-44 on 6 targets against the Steelers – but he set season-highs with an 88% route participation rate and 30% target share. He’s quickly becoming a trusted weapon in this offense, and that could lead to a nice week in a game where the Chargers will likely have to throw more than they have all year. LA has averaged just 22 pass attempts per game while largely playing from the lead, but they’re 7.5-point underdogs to KC this week, and will likely have to throw 30+ times, no matter who is at QB. I expect Justin Herbert to be good to go, but if he’s not and it’s Taylor Heinicke instead, I still like McConkey’s chances at 7+ targets against a Chiefs defense that ranks just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA. Ladd should be a passable PPR WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): At this point, you’re probably looking at me a little sideways for telling you I’d lean toward starting Caleb Williams and sitting Nix when Nix hasn’t been outscored by Williams yet this season, but I stand by it. Nix has been getting by with passing volume and rushing production, but his yards per attempt sit at a dismal 5.3, he’s yet to throw a touchdown pass, and he faces a menacing Jets’ defense that has allowed just 1 QB touchdown of any kind all season. The Jets have allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game through 3 weeks. I’d treat Nix as a low-end QB2 for week 4.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): Irving has been a popular waiver wire pickup this week after he posted a top-20 finish last week and Head Coach Todd Bowles announced after the game that he’s earned more work going forward, but I think that hype is a little premature. There’s no question Irving has been Tampa’s most efficient back, averaging 6.2 yards per carry to Rachaad White’s 2.1, but White still played more than twice as many snaps as Irving last week, and Bowles when given the opportunity denied that Irving had moved ahead of White on the depth chart. This may be closer to a 50-50 split going forward, but the Bucs still love White on passing downs and in the red zone. The Eagles have been a middling run defense, ranking 16^th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve yet to allow a running back TD all year. If that continues this week, Irving likely winds up a lackluster RB3/RB4 for the week.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Week 1 with Andy Dalton under center for the Panthers was a smashing success with Dalton piling up 319 yards and 3 TDs en route to a blowout win over the Raiders. Unfortunately for Legette, he didn’t get to join in on the fun much with just an 8% target share and 51% route participation rate. Adam Thielen was placed on IR this week, so Legette should see a jump in playing time, but it’s murky how much production that will lead to. Legette has been playing behind Jonathan Mingo through the first 3 weeks, and in Dalton’s first start, Diontae Johnson was a target hog. There’s plenty of opportunity for passing production here – the Bengals rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA – but Legette is likely no higher than 3^rd in the pecking order. I’d view him as a fringe WR4 with upside, but he is worth a stash if he’s available in your league with bye weeks coming up and Adam Thielen out for a month.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 4: @ LAC): Worthy’s route participation rate has been around 70% or higher in all 3 games this season, but he’s averaging just 5 opportunities per game (targets + rush attempts combined). He has yet to log more than 2 catches in a game this year and he faces a Charger defense that has allowed the 7^th-fewest WR points per game. You’re betting on a big play or two if you decide to start him. His basic function in this offense has been to run deep routes to clear out coverage to get Rashee Rice open.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 4: @ Bal.): Coleman salvaged his week 3 performance by finding the end zone, but he saw a season-low 32% route participation rate and was targeted just once in a game where the Bills threw the ball all over the Jaguars. The fact that his role has been shrinking as the Bills have hit their offensive stride doesn’t make me feel great about plugging him in this week, even against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): You do not want to chase the RB3 in an offense quarterbacked by either Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley. The Dolphins will probably be without Skylar Thompson in week 4, leaving Boyle and Huntley as the fill-in options. It remains to be seen if Raheem Mostert will be back for this game, but Wright will still fight for backup snaps with Jeff Wilson Jr. if Mostert remains out. The Titans have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game so far, but Wright will likely only see a few touches and the Dolphins’ offense figures to struggle due to their QB situation. They have an implied point total of just 18.25 points.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 4: @ Bal.): Davis has been one of the more involved backup rookie running backs this season, tallying 18 touches in the last two weeks, but 14 of those 18 touches have come with the Bills leading by more than 2 touchdowns. This week’s contest, where the Bills are 2.5-point underdogs in Baltimore, figures to be much tighter than the last two. The Ravens have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game, and I wouldn’t expect more than just a few touches for Davis unless the game script is drastically different than Vegas expects.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): Benson tallied 11 carries in garbage time in week 2 but was back to his usual limited opportunities in week 3 in a much more competitive game with the Lions. Benson played just 2 snaps while fellow backup Emari Demercado played 11.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 4: @ Ari.): McCaffrey made a couple nice plays in week 3, but he’s also slipped to 3^rd on the depth chart as Noah Brown has worked his way into the WR2 role behind Terry McLaurin. Luke put up 3-44 on 3 targets Monday night and nearly found his way into the end zone, but his route participation rate was down to just 35%. It’s possible he will see a couple extra short targets this week with Austin Ekeler out after suffering a concussion Monday, but it’s hard to trust a player who needs volume to produce when he’s only on the field a third of the time.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 4: @ NYJ): Vele still has some PPR upside if he’s able to return this week, but it’s hard to envision him slipping seamlessly back into the same role he played in week 1 after missing the last two contests. The Jets have been vulnerable in the slot, allowing strong games to Jauan Jennings (5-64 on 5 targets) and Pop Douglas (7-69 on 9 targets), but Lil’Jordan Humphrey has established himself in that role over the last two weeks, and I don’t expect Vele to take over completely in his first game back. Vele’s upside comes from being peppered with short targets, so any threat to his snap volume is a threat to his fantasy outlook.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 4: @ Chi.): I had hope for Whittington with Kupp and Nacua both on IR, but the re-emergence of Tutu Atwell in this passing game has pushed Whittington down to WR4, and there’s just not enough work for him in that role to be a viable fantasy starter. He tallied 3 catches and 28 yards last week on 3 targets but was in a route on just 34% of the team’s dropbacks. If that workload repeats itself this week against the Bears, who allow the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, I’d expect an even lower output than we got last week.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): McMillan continues to run a ton of routes (80% route participation rate last week), but the routes just haven’t been converting to targets. He’s been targeted just 6 times in 3 games, and while there’s potential upside against the Eagles, who have allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game, it’s impossible to bank on a breakout game with the low target volume McMillan has been seeing.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 4: @ SF): Polk’s playing time is headed in the wrong direction as Demario Douglas and KJ Osborn have emerged as the top 2 receivers in this offense. Polk was down to just a 43% route participation rate in week 3 and hasn’t yet earned more than 3 targets in a game.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Pit.): The return of Josh Downs was a bigger problem for Mitchell than I expected, with Downs stepping into a full-time role immediately. Adonai was limited to just a 9% route participation rate in week 3. He’s unplayable until further notice.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 4: @ Ind.): Wilson was held out again in week 3, delaying what I expect will be a multi-week ramp up to a full-time role for the rookie. It doesn’t help Wilson that Calvin Austin played well last week, but Van Jefferson has been mostly a non-factor for the Steelers. There is still room for Wilson to climb this depth chart, but the low team passing volume will cap his ceiling in 2024.

TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): Trey McBride left last Sunday’s contest with a concussion, leaving a tight end void for the Cardinals if he’s unable to get cleared ahead of this week. Reiman is not the player to target if you’re looking to capitalize here. It’s Elijah Higgins who has served as the TE2 in this offense while Reiman has failed to garner a single target on 17 routes this season Reiman could play more snaps than Higgins this week, but I’d expect the converted WR Higgins to be the one that’s more involved as a receiver. The Cardinals have run a lot of multiple-TE sets this year, but I’d expect more 11 personnel in week 4 against a Washington defense that gets shredded by WRs but allows the 6^th-fewest TE points per game. Reiman could tally his first career catch, but I’d look elsewhere if you’re searching for a desperation tight end this week.

Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): I mention Brooks just in case he’s still sitting on your league’s waiver wire. He’s on the PUP list, so he’s ineligible to return until at least week 5, but Pathers’ HC Dave Canales says he’s in the final stages of his recovery, and he could quickly ascend to the top of the Carolina running back depth chart once he’s healthy. He’s worth a stash if you’re struggling at RB and he’s available.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 4: @ Car.): All has quietly finished as a top-20 PPR TE in back-to-back weeks and is looking like he may have a bright future in Cincinnati. His playing time remains limited – he’s behind Mike Gesicki and was in a route on just 24% of the team dropbacks last Monday – but the Bengals have looked to get him the ball when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on 32% of his routes run in the last 2 games, and he’s caught all 8 targets that have come his way. He’s worth a stash in dynasty leagues and is a sneaky anytime TD bet this week. The Panthers are the only defense that has allowed multiple tight end touchdowns in the first 3 weeks.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Is it just me, or did the first month of the season fly by? It was a month full of frustrating injuries, frustratingly low passing volume, and frustrating tight end performances, but there was plenty of good in there too. Several rookies have wasted no time in showing they belong in the NFL, while others are still biding their time and waiting for an opportunity. I think we’ll see a few more of them start to emerge over the next quarter of the season.

Hopefully at this point you find your team sitting in a good place and are not considering doing anything too drastic to change your fortunes. The best course of action for a struggling team is usually to make minor tweaks rather than blow the whole thing up, but you certainly shouldn’t be complacent if you’re sitting at 0-4. We enter the first bye week this weekend, you may be looking at using some players you typically wouldn’t, and I’m guessing for a lot of you, some of those players are rookies. I’m here as always to help you sift through which rookies can propel you to victory.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 5…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Daniels is the QB1 for the season by total points. He’s finished as the QB5 or better in 3 out of 4 weeks, and the Commanders’ offense has only had two drives in the last 3 weeks that didn’t end in points. Everything is clicking for Daniels and Washington, and while this could be the toughest secondary he’s faced yet this season, you can’t sit him. There is a little bit of risk of a down game against a Cleveland defense that allows the 7^th-fewest QB points per game, but I have a feeling Daniels will do enough with his legs to offset any drop off in passing production. The Browns play man-to-man coverage at the 3^rd-highest rate in the league this year, and man-to-man defense can leave open huge rushing lanes if the DBs turn their back to the QB. Cleveland will likely look to use a spy to keep Daniels contained, but I expect at least a couple opportunities to break a long run. Jayden has to be treated as a clear top-10 QB option this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Nabers left last week’s game with a concussion, but not before he had tallied 12 catches for 115 yards. There’s a little concern here since Nabers hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol yet, but as long as he gets cleared in time to play, there shouldn’t be any drop-off in his performance level. Nabers has logged 3 straight top-6 PPR finishes and has seen massive target shares in all 3 games (at least a 38% share and 12+ targets in each). The Seahawks are a tough matchup – they rank 9^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but that shouldn’t deter you from starting him. Expecting a 4^th straight top-6 finish may be too lofty, but he’s a locked & loaded WR1 if he’s able to get cleared in time.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Harrison’s fantasy production hasn’t been quite as scintillating as fellow rookie standout Malik Nabers, but after a disaster debut, he’s now logged 3 straight games with 15+ PPR points and at least a 25% target share. The 49ers are a formidable defense, ranking 5^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed 3 different receivers to top 80 yards against them in 4 games. Harrison should have a good chance to be #4. He’s a quality WR2 option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Thomas has been about as consistent as a rookie can be through 4 weeks. His route participation rate has been between 77% and 83% in all 4 weeks, his target share has been 20% or higher in 3 of them, and his air yardage share has been 19% or higher in all 4. While that consistency has been there since week 1, he’s really emerged as a go-to receiver in this offense over the last two weeks, earning 9 targets in each of the last 2 games. His usage and production have made him a weekly fantasy WR3, but his recent uptick in targets and a plus matchup this week give him even more upside in week 5. The Colts have allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game and have allowed a 100-yard receiver in 3 of their 4 games this season. In the only game where they avoided allowing a 100-yard receiving performance, Malik Willis was the opposing starting QB. Thomas should be treated as a WR2 this week and is the likeliest Jaguar pass catcher to top the century mark.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Worthy displayed the feast or famine nature of starting him in fantasy football yet again last week. He’s yet to top 4 targets in any game this year, but he’s also posted a top-10 and a top-20 finish in the weeks where he and Patrick Mahomes have managed to connect on a deep ball (he caught a 54-yard TD in week 4). The problem is that he’s finished outside the top-65 WRs in the weeks where they haven’t connected deep. The upside is still enticing, and while this isn’t a great defensive matchup to attack with Worthy (New Orleans ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws), I have a feeling we’re going to see Worthy’s floor get elevated with Rashee Rice on IR. The conventional wisdom is that Travis Kelce is going to pick up a lot of that additional work in the short & intermediate part of the field, but I think Worthy benefits as well. He’s still mostly a boom-or-bust player with a low floor, but I think the ceiling makes him a viable WR3 this week, even in a tougher matchup.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Whittington’s role in this Rams’ offense drastically changed from week 3 to week 4, and I think it’s worth us taking notice. I had a lot of hope for Whittington getting a chance in this offense when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua went down, but in week 3 without Kupp, he played behind all of Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson and was limited to just a 34% route participation rate. Something we should’ve paid more attention to is the fact that he was targeted on 30% of his routes in that game. The ball found it’s way to him when he was on the field, and when his route rate jumped up to 97% in week 4, the target rate stayed high. Whittington was targeted 8 times last week and finished with a solid 6-62 line. I think the Rams have found something here, and I expect him to play close to a full-time role again this week against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. The Rams are 3.5-point underdogs, so game script should keep them throwing enough for Whittington to find his way to a WR3 finish. He should be a very solid, but unspectacular fill-in option if you’re looking for help covering an injury or bye this week.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 5: @ Den.): Realistically, Bowers still belongs in ‘Rookies You Know You Should Start’ section, but you might take issue with me calling him an auto-start after posting TE15 and TE22 finishes in the last two weeks. You might not realize that he logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend (81%) with Michael Mayer out for personal reasons. The targets weren’t exactly there, but Mayer looks to be out again this week and any tight end running a route on 80%+ of a team’s dropbacks should be considered a slam dunk top-10 option for the week. The Broncos aren’t an imposing matchup here. They’ve allowed the 16^th-most TE points per game on the year. You should continue to feel comfortable starting Bowers in all formats unless your format doesn’t require you to start a tight end.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Wiliams, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Caleb Williams has the same outlook this week that he does most weeks…he’s a weekly QB2 that has some fringe QB1 appeal in really good matchups (especially during bye weeks for other QBs). His matchup this week is a pretty good one – the Panthers allow the 10^th-most QB points per game and rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not quite enticing enough for Caleb to be a top-12 option in my opinion. The Bears are a 4-point favorite, so passing volume could be on the lower end, and I still don’t quite trust Shane Waldron yet. Every opponent the Panthers have faced this year has thrown for multiple TDs against them. If Caleb does that, he should push near a top-12 finish, but I’d view him as a mid-to-high end QB2 this week.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Unlike Caleb Williams, Nix is a borderline option for 2-QB and superflex formats, not 1-QB leagues. Nix posted a performance in week 4 that few QBs have ever matched. He became just the 8^th quarterback to ever throw for 60 or fewer passing yards on 25 or more attempts in a game, and the first QB to do it since Tim Hasselbeck in 2003. Nix is the only QB to ever do that and win the game. It was a level of inefficiency that we just don’t see in the NFL anymore. In fact, at halftime, Nix had 8 completions for negative-7 yards. Things can only get better this week against the Raiders, who rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA, but the Broncos implied Vegas point total is under 20, and only 1 QB this season has found the end zone more than once against the Raiders. Nix’s rushing upside and favorable matchup mean you could plug him in as a QB2 if you had to, but I’d prefer to have a better option available.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 5: @ Atl.): Irving has been a hot waiver wire name now for a couple weeks thanks to a handful of impressive breakaway runs and some coach speak from Todd Bowles ahead of week 4 saying Irving has earned more work. The reality is that this backfield hasn’t shifted as drastically as you might think. Irving was out snapped by Rachaad White 44 to 30 in week 4. The gap between the duo has been narrowing, but White is still the RB1 in this backfield for now. The calls to for Irving to get more playing time were largely due to White’s abysmal rushing efficiency, but in week 4 White matched Irving with 10 carries for 49 yards on the ground. White has also averaged 8.3 yards per target while Irving has averaged just 4.3. Rachaad is going to have to continue to run well to stave off calls for him to lose more work to the rookie, but his receiving work is safe, and he’ll continue to handle about half of the rushing attempts for now as well. That means Irving is going to have to continue generating breakaway runs or find the end zone to be useful in your fantasy lineup, and the Falcons have allowed just 2 rushes of 20+ yards thus far. Atlanta allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. It’s not a great matchup to attack with a running back that’s getting less than 50% of the workload. I’d view Irving as a fringe RB3 this week at best.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 5: @ Min.): Allen has now played 20+ snaps and received 9 or more opportunities in each of the last 3 games, but that usage level continues to make him a clear second fiddle to Breece Hall. He’s already shown us this season that he’s a flex-worthy option in good matchups, and he’s going to prove valuable at some crucial moment during bye weeks, but the matchup this week is rough. The Vikings rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. It’s just not the right spot to count on Allen making an impact in a part-time role.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Steele may have fumbled away his opportunity to lead the Chiefs’ backfield during Isiah Pacheco’s absence last week. He fumbled his first carry of the game, played one more series, and then was barely seen the rest of the day as Kareem Hunt served as the lead back. Steele finished the game with just a 19% snap share and saw just one opportunity – a target he didn’t catch- after the first 2 drives. Andy Reid said after the game that “he’s got to hang on to the football,” but insisted that Steele is not a fumbler and that they still have confidence in him. I think they’ve at least lost enough confidence in him that he no longer has a stranglehold on the early down work, and that makes him tough to start against a Saints’ defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. He’s got to re-earn that lead back role before you can plug him into lineups.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Legette took a big step forward in week 4 with Adam Thielen sidelined, logging an 88% route participation rate and tallying 6-66-1 on 10 targets, good for a WR13 finish for the week. It’s an extremely positive development for the rookie’s outlook for the next month or so while Thielen is out, but I’m going to be a little bit of a wet blanket here for at least week 5. Legette still ran fewer routes than both Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo last weekend, and his breakout game came against a Cincy defense that has been struggling to contain wide receivers in the last 3 weeks – they’ve allowed 20+ PPR points to 4 different receivers in the last 3 games. The Bears, on the other hand, have allowed just one receiver all year to reach that mark (Nico Collins). Chicago ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. I also think Legette is likely to draw the toughest CB assignment more often than Mingo or Diontae. The Bears have a clear #1 CB in Jaylon Johnson, who has been significantly better than CB2 Tyrique Stevenson and nickel Kyler Gordon. The Bears are predictable about where these corners line up. Mingo in the slot will draw mostly Gordon, and I expect Carolina to do what they can to keep WR1 Diontae Johnson away from Jaylon Johnson, meaning Legette is going to have to tangle with him often. It doesn’t mean Xavier can’t be useful this week. There’s certainly upside and he’s carved out a role, but I see him as more of a WR4 this week than WR3.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Coleman saw his route participation rate in week 4 climb back up to 73% after being all the way down at 31% the week prior, but that additional usage led to just 3 catches on 4 targets, with most of that production coming late in the game when the Bills were in a deep hole on the scoreboard. Houston has been a favorable matchup for fantasy WRs, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, but Coleman just hasn’t been involved enough in the last couple weeks when the games are still in doubt to trust him here. I’d keep him parked on the bench until we see him start to get more early usage in tight games.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): We got one glorious week of the Bears running their passing game through Odunze in week 3, but in week 4 he was back to running wind sprints. He’s now posted a target share below 15% in 3 out of 4 games this season despite being a full-time player, and he’s finished as the PPR WR50 or worse in all 3 of those games. There are going to be spike weeks when the Bears have to throw the ball a lot, but I worry this week’s contest could look a bit more like last week’s. Caleb Williams dropped back 103 times in weeks 2 & 3 combined as the Bears played from behind against the Texans and Colts. He dropped back just 26 times against the Rams while playing from the lead with the run game finally working. The Bears are 4-point favorites this week against Carolina, so the passing volume could again be a problem for Odunze. A 15% target share and 30 or fewer pass attempts means an uphill climb to a fantasy relevant finish for Rome.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 5: @ NE): Wright played his highest snap share of the season in week 4. He was on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps and was in a route on 54% of the team’s passing dropbacks, turning that usage into 9 rushing attempts and 1 target. The problem is that this offense has been a mess without Tua under center, those opportunities didn’t lead to much production, and Raheem Mostert seems likely to return from injury this week. The Patriots are just a middling run defense, but the Dolphins have a paltry implied total of 17.25 for the week, and Wright will likely serve as the RB3 if Mostert is able to play.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Davis’ box score performances make it look like he’s had good involvement in the Bills offense, totaling 23 rush attempts in the last 3 games, but all 3 contests were blowouts, and Davis is getting the bulk of his work in garbage time. He’s only reached a 20% snap share once in 4 games, and this week’s contest with the Texans should be close enough that Davis doesn’t get much garbage time work. The Bills are favored by just one point. Davis is basically a TD dart throw with a low chance of hitting the mark.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Tracy has averaged 15 snaps and 4 opportunities per game, which just isn’t enough work behind Devin Singletary to be worthwhile in fantasy lineups.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Benson handled 30% of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts last week, but much of that work was at the tail end of a blowout loss to the Commanders. He’s still splitting backup work with Emari Demercado, spelling James Conner in early down situations while Demercado spells him on passing downs. This week figures to have more of the latter with the Cardinals a 7.5-point underdog to the 49ers.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Corum hasn’t played a single offensive snap in 3 of the 4 games the Rams have played this season.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Polk saw his best usage of the season in week 4, running a route on 87% of the team dropbacks and earning 7 targets (24% target share). He even made a highlight real catch on a sideline throw dropped between two 49er defenders. The usage was more promising than the 3-30 final stat line that Polk finished with, and I’d be more bullish on Polk going forward if I felt like we could count on that usage continuing, but I don’t think we can. The Patriots’ week-to-week usage of their pass catchers has been very inconsistent, especially when it comes to targets. Each of their top 3 receivers have had at least one week with a 60% route participation rate and 5% or lower target share. They’ve also each posted a week with a 24% or higher target share. It’s impossible to trust any New England wide receiver when the team is averaging less than 150 passing yards per game, and you have no clue which receiver is going to see the target volume from week-to-week.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): McCaffrey was limited to a 47% route participation rate and just 1 target in week 4 as Noah Brown continued his ascent up the WR depth chart. Brown has seen his own route participation rate climb from 32% in week 2 to 58% in week 3 and 72% in week 4. He’s functioning as the clear WR2 behind Terry McLaurin, and McCaffrey is left splitting WR3 work with Olamide Zaccheaus. The Commanders are too run-heavy of an offense to take a chance on a player who is playing half of the WR3 role.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 5: @ Jax.): Mitchell has run just 11 routes and tallied zero catches in the two games since Josh Downs returned to the lineup. There’s a sliver of hope this week that he hits a splash play and winds up fantasy viable – the Colts have still tried to get him the ball deep, throwing 4 targets in his direction for 105 total air yards in the last 2 weeks, and the Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. If there isn’t a deep ball connection though, there’s a very real chance Adonai scores zero points yet again.

WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): The Raiders rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA this year, so there’s an opportunity for success against them in the passing game, but Franklin and Vele aren’t involved enough to be relied on. Vele had a promising week 1 but has been sidelined with a rib injury since. Now that he’s missed 3 weeks and Lil’Jordan Humphrey has established himself in the slot, Vele will likely have to earn back those reps slowly upon his return. Franklin has seen a small bump in playing time in recent weeks, logging route participation rates of 30 and 35% in the last two games, and Bo Nix targeted him on more than 40% of his routes in each game, but that turned into just 4 catches for 9 yards on 9 targets. His role could increase in future weeks, but neither player here is likely to exceed a handful of PPR points even if they have a good week.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Is this the week Wilson is finally activated? It probably won’t matter in fantasy. He’s missed enough time that there will be an inevitable ramp up before he’s playing a meaningful number of snaps. Rumors that the Steelers might trade for a WR diminish his value even further.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): In two games with Tee Higgins back from injury, Burton has run just 5 routes total and earned zero targets.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Johnson continues to operate as the Giants lead tight end, but the volume just hasn’t been there. He’s averaged nearly a 70% route participation rate, but he’s only been targeted on 5% of the routes he’s run. We saw some promise in week one when he was targeted 4 times, but he’s earned just 4 total targets in the last 3 weeks as Malik Nabers has ascended.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I mention Barner because he got into the end zone on Monday Night Football against Detroit and posted a top-10 finish for the week as a result. There’s not a good reason to chase the touchdown here. Barner has made the most of his opportunities – he’s caught all 5 of his targets this season for 40 yards and a score, but he’s averaged just a 25% route participation rate and is no higher than 7^th in the offensive pecking order on this team. Starting TE Noah Fant has also made the most of his opportunities, pulling in 8 of 8 targets for 86 yards on the year, making it harder for Barner to make real headway.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Sanders posted his best fantasy day of the season last weekend. He only put up 2 catches for 16 yards, but it was still his best fantasy day of the season. Unfortunately, he also logged his lowest route participation rate of the season as well at just 21%. At this point, Sanders is merely the backup to Tommy Tremble. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this year.

TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): As I expected last week, it was Elijah Higgins, and not Reiman who served as the Cardinals TE1 with Trey McBride sidelined by a concussion. Reiman was in a route on just 14% of the team dropbacks and wasn’t targeted. McBride is fully expected to be back this week.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Sinnott has been on the field a little bit more in the last two weeks, reaching a 20% route participation rate in each game, but his next target this season will be his first. He’s still splitting backup TE work with John Bates.

Rookies on Byes in week 5: WR Ladd McConkey, LAC

IR Rookies (practice window not open yet): RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR, RB Audric Estime, DEN, WR Ricky Pearsall, SF

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Jerod Mayo keeps insisting that the Patriots aren’t all that close to making a change at QB, but beat writers have suggested there are rumblings from within the building that the change could be getting close. If Maye is still on the waiver wire in 2-QB redraft leagues, the best time to stash him would be now, before the change happens. If the Patriots fall to the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins this week and drop to 1-4, it could be Jacoby Brissett’s final start. Maye provides much more upside as a passer than Jacoby, and some rushing upside to boot. The schedule after this week does include some daunting defensive matchups, but there are soft spots against the Jaguars, Rams and Colts that could be great opportunities to start Maye in fantasy.

WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 5: @ KC): Tipton isn’t a player who should be put into lineups this week, but he’s worth mentioning for those of you in deep dynasty leagues because you may not realize the UDFA out of Yale has quietly emerged as the WR3 in New Orleans. It’s not a role that’s bringing a lot of target volume yet (just 4 targets in the last 2 weeks), but he’s logged route participation rates of 48% and 56% in the last 2 games. He’s worth stashing in the deepest dynasty leagues for the inevitable future hamstring injury that will hit Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed. He doesn’t have the same upside as that pair, but there will be weeks where he sees more targets than he has so far.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): All continues to play second fiddle to Mike Gesicki on the Bengals’ depth chart – he’s logged less than a 40% route participation rate in every game he’s played in - but the ball comes his way when he’s on the field. All has quietly logged 3 straight top-20 PPR finishes and has been targeted on more than a third of his routes in that span. His limited playing time makes him more of a floor play than a ceiling one, but he’s already worth weekly starting consideration in 2-TE formats, and he could be a reasonable bye week fill in for deeper leagues as he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most TE points per game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.