Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s a new season and hope springs eternal yet again. You get to wipe the slate clean on last year, whether good or bad, and everyone starts from 0-0. With a new season comes a new crop of rookies, the most volatile of fantasy assets. I’ll be here each week to help you parse through what to expect from the first-year players – Is their playing time trending up or down? Are there injuries ahead of them on the depth chart? Is their matchup good or bad? I’ll dig into that each week and give you my recommendations.
If you’re new here, each week I’ll group the rookies into five categories: Rookies you know you should start, borderline rookies I’d lean toward starting, borderline rookies I’d lean toward sitting, rookies you already know you should sit, and then I’ll throw in some deep league sleepers, stashes for the future, or cheap DFS options for the week. Keep in mind that different leagues have different scoring rules, different numbers of teams, and different roster setups. It’s important to read what’s written about each player and apply it to the context of your own league rules and scoring rather than just going off the header they’re grouped under. At the end of the day, it’s ultimately your decision who you start and sit, and you should make the best choice for your own specific circumstances. I’m just here to provide a little extra info to help you make those decisions.
Fair warning for week 1…it’s going to be a little boring. The smart approach with rookies in week 1 is to be conservative, so there aren’t many rookies I’d recommend starting this week. In week 1 of 2023, there was just 1 rookie QB who finished in the top-20 (Anthony Richardson), 2 rookie RBs in the top-30 (Bijan and Roschon Johnson), 4 rookie WRs in the top-40 (Puka, Jordan Addison, Rashee Rice, and Zay Flowers), and 2 rookie TEs in the top-20 (LaPorta and Luke Musgrave). That’s just 9 total rookies who posted useful week 1 fantasy performances. Your best bet with guys who aren’t clear starters is to take a wait-and-see approach before plugging them into lineups.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 1…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI (Wk. 1: @Buf.): You didn’t draft Marv in the 2nd round to sit him on the bench in week 1. He’s an every-week starter until there’s a reason for him not to be. The matchup isn’t an easy one. The Bills did lose Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer from their secondary last year, but the starting outside corners this year (Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas) were top-10 corners in PPF coverage grade in 2023 and should keep this a competitive group. Harrison should still see a huge target share as the clear WR1 and should be started with confidence even in this tough matchup.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Just like Harrison, you likely didn’t draft Nabers to sit him. He’s going to be the Giants’ clear-cut WR1. Unlike Harrison, he’s saddled with Daniel Jones throwing him the ball. He does face a Viking defense that allowed the 6th-most WR points per game last season, but the Vikes also brought in two new faces to start at corner – Stephon Gilmore and Shaquill Griffin. Gilmore is two weeks shy of 34 years old, and Griffin was cut by a playoff contender mid-season last year. It’s not a matchup to fear, and Nabers should see plenty of one-on-one opportunities against a Brian Flores defense that blitzed on a whopping 51.5% of opponent plays last year. Nabers should feast if Jones can stay upright long enough and be on target enough to find him. Those are big ifs, but volume alone should make Nabers should be a solid WR2 option in week 1.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Starting:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 1: @TB): The simple explanation here with Daniels is that rushing production is valuable in fantasy football. Daniels is likely to run a lot, and basically every running QB who faced the Bucs last year found the end zone on the ground (Josh Allen, Desmond Ridder x2, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, and Gardner Minshew all hit paydirt). The Bucs also boast a blitz-happy defense that leaves them vulnerable on the back end. They ranked 3rd in the NFL in blitz rate in 2023, and as a result they allowed the 2nd-most 20+ yard completions in the league and the 4th-most passing yards. Daniels’ mobility will buy him time to exploit those coverage lapses when the Bucs bring the blitz. The weapons are dicey after Terry McLaurin, but I still think Daniels finds his way to a top-12 fantasy finish in his NFL debut in a matchup that seems to play to his strengths.
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): This is more of a gut call than anything, but I have a feeling the Chiefs manage to get Worthy lose for a deep ball in the opener. Patrick Mahomes felt handcuffed last season by defenses that played 2-deep shell coverages and forced him to try and pick them apart underneath. He had his worst season as a passer, and in the offseason said, “We didn’t really play football the way we wanted to play all year long…It wasn’t fun.” The team went out this offseason and brought in a couple of burners in Worthy and Hollywood Brown who should be able to take the top off those 2-deep shells and make football fun for Mahomes once again. Hollywood Brown is ruled out this week, so Worthy should be on the field enough to have a floor that won’t kill you if he doesn’t hit a big play, but I think the Chiefs are eager to show off their speedy new weapon and put fear back into opposing defenses that they haven’t felt since Tyreek Hill left for Miami. Worthy is a boom-or-bust WR3 for me this week.
WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (Wk. 1: @Mia.): Thomas is a very tempting option this week for fantasy lineups, especially since Jalen Ramsey is trending towards missing this game for the Dolphins, but there’s a lot of boom-or-bust in Thomas’ game. He specialized in vertical downfield routes, and unlike Xavier Worthy, his low-volume deep threat teammate, Gabe Davis, is going to play this week. I still think Thomas is worth the risk this week as a fringe WR3 against a Miami defense that allowed the 11th-most WR points per game last year. This recommendation is a bet that BTJ is better at earning targets than Gabe Davis. The volume in this offense is still going to funnel to Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, but Thomas could post a usable week on just a few catches if things go his way.
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 1: @LAC): Bowers battled a foot injury throughout camp but looks to be good to go for week 1. The limited camp reps aren’t a great sign for rookie entering his first pro game, but the Raiders still list Bowers as a starter on their official depth chart, and I think he’s quickly going to become one of Gardner Minshew’s favorite targets. Bowers spent 3 years on a powerhouse Georgia team, playing alongside WR teammates like Ladd McConkey, Jermaine Burton, and Adonai Mitchell. Bowers led the Bulldogs in receptions and receiving yards in all 3 seasons he was there. Once you get past the top 7 or 8 tight ends, most of the remaining options are touchdown or bust choices. Bowers is one of the few outside the top-8 with the skills to pile up targets and provide value without finding the end zone. He’s not going to supplant Davante Adams as the top passing game target, but he could move up to #2 quickly. I wouldn’t be afraid to roll with Bowers in week 1 if you don’t have one of those top TE options, especially in PPR formats.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Sitting:
QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): If you’re stuck starting Caleb in a 1-QB league, he probably won’t hurt you this week, I just think there are enough proven QBs with good matchups this week that I wouldn’t consider Caleb a top-12 option. I do think Williams is the real deal, and that the Bears have found their franchise QB, and I’d be happy to start him in superflex formats in week 1, but when you stack up his matchup side-by-side with guys like Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff, and Tua, I just prefer those guys over Caleb for this week. Caleb could certainly prove me wrong – the Titans ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA last season. If you’re deciding between Williams and another fringy QB1 option this week, trust your gut.
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 1: @Sea.): I wouldn’t consider Nix in 1-QB formats, but he’s certainly on the radar in superflex leagues after earning the starting nod for week 1. A year ago, this would’ve been a great spot to trust a player like Nix as your QB2. At Oregon Nix specialized in stressing defenses horizontally rather than vertically. It’s a skillset that meshes well with the offenses Sean Payton ran for Drew Brees at the end of his career and would’ve been great against a bad Seattle defense that ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA in 2023. Unfortunately for Nix, the Seahawks went out and hired Mike McDonald as head coach in the offseason. McDonald is known for his complex coverage disguises that should be a nightmare for a rookie QB to diagnose. 4 different rookies started at QB against the Ravens in the last 2 seasons (Kenny Pickett, CJ Stroud, Desmond Ridder, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson). None of them reached 11 fantasy points in those starts. Turnovers could also be a concern for Nix as McDonald and new defensive coordinator Alan Durde both come from teams with defenses that excelled at taking the ball away. McDonald’s Ravens led the NFL in takeaways last season, and the Cowboys (with Durde as D-line coach) led the league in takeaways in 2021 and 2022. I’d look elsewhere for a QB2 this week if you have options.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. Ten.): Odunze could very well prove me wrong and post a strong debut game, but I think early in the season Rome’s target share is going to take a backseat to proven vets DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, similar to how Jaxon Smith-Njigba took a backseat to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett a season ago with this same offensive coordinator (Shane Waldron). You could argue that Keenan Allen’s excellence in the short area of the field is a better fit for the role JSN played last year than Odunze’s skill set, but for at least week 1 I’d rather defer to the veterans. I’d treat Odunze as a WR4 with upside this week.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. LV): McConkey opens the year as the Chargers starting slot receiver, but this Raiders/Chargers tilt is tied for the lowest Vegas point total of the week, and the Chargers’ new coaching staff loves to take the air out of the football and pound it on the ground when they can. The Raiders were in the top-10 in the league last year in zone coverage rate, so McConkey should have plenty of chances to find soft spots in coverage. He ranked 2nd among this year’s rookie WR class in yards per route run vs zone coverage last year (per Roto Underworld), so it’s a matchup that favors him. I just don’t think there will be enough passing volume or enough downfield targets for McConkey to give you much more than a 5-50 kind of stat line. He’s a viable WR4 option in PPR formats, but I wouldn’t hope for much more than that in week 1.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): The Buffalo Bills pass catching pecking order remains a bit of a mystery as we enter week 1. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out, and Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins are in alongside returnees Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid’s TE volume seems like it should be stable, but the WR room is a little more in flux. Coleman’s size and 1st-round draft capital says he should emerge as the alpha WR of the group, but on the initial depth chart he’s been listed as 2nd string behind Hollins. I still expect Coleman to be on the field a lot in week 1, but the fact that he may play less than a full complement of snaps has me erring on the side of not starting him this week, even in a good matchup with a bad Cardinals’ defense.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Unless you’ve been living under a rock throughout the preseason, you know that Jacoby Brissett is slated to start at QB for the Pats in week 1 despite Maye playing well in camp. With that said, Maye shouldn’t be floating around on the waiver wire in any superflex or 2-QB leagues. If he’s available in your league, or if the person who drafted him gets impatient and drops him early in the year while Brissett is starting, don’t be afraid to pick him up. He's at the top of a short list of backup QBs who can become a starter without an injury in front of them. The Pats’ offensive weapons are uninspiring, but Maye could provide enough value with his legs to make up for the lack of receiving weapons. He’s not a true Konami code QB, but he averaged 550 yards and 8 TDs per season on the ground in his two seasons as starter at UNC. He could be an every-week QB2 once he takes over the starting job.
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 1: @Buf.): Benson has all of the skills necessary to develop into an NFL lead back, but the Cardinals’ coaching staff has been adamant that James Conner is their workhorse entering the season. Conner played at least 63% of the offensive snaps in every single win and one-possession loss that he was active for last season and was over 70% in half of them. I’d assume Benson will play most of the snaps that Conner doesn’t, but a 30-35% snap share likely isn’t going to make him very productive when Conner is healthy. Buffalo was a middling run defense last year, so I wouldn’t count on a big day on limited touches for Trey. The good news for Benson is that Conner has played more than 13 games just once in the last 6 years, so he should see some spot starts along the way.
RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 1: @Det.): Corum enters the season as the Rams’ RB2 behind Kyren Williams. Williams played over 80% of the offensive snaps in 7 of the 12 games he played in last year. I’d expect that to change this year with Corum around to take more of the workload off Kyren’s plate, but this isn’t going to be a 50-50 split early on. It’s still Kyren’s backfield. Corum might be able to work his way into 30-35% of the snaps early in the season, but this week the Rams face a Detroit defense that ranked 1st in run defense DVOA last year, allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and could have an improved front 7 after adding Marcus Davenport and DJ Reader in the offseason. It’s a terrible matchup to roll Corum out there when he’s playing limited snaps.
RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Tracy was a popular rookie sleeper pick early on in camp because he basically has just Devin Singletary in front of him on the depth chart, but as usual, Singletary managed to hold off his more highly touted competition and seems in line to enter the season as the clear RB1 for the Giants. Singletary has led his team’s backfield in touches in every single year of his career, beating out more highly touted players like Frank Gore, Zack Moss, James Cook, and Dameon Pierce along the way. Tracy may just be the next guy to add his name to that list. I’d expect Tracy to be playing somewhere in the range of 25-30% of the offensive snaps this week, which just isn’t enough to trust him in lineups.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wek. 1: vs. Bal.): Steele is a fun story after coming out of nowhere to run over defenders in the preseason and bully his way into the Chiefs’ RB2 role, but Kansas City’s addition of Samaje Perine likely means Steele will be limited to a few snaps spelling Isiah Pacheco on early downs. The Ravens ranked 7th in rtoefense DVOA last season, so I wouldn’t count on those few snaps amounting to much fantasy production in week 1.
RB Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 1: @LAC): Laube is one of my favorite late dart throws in PPR formats this year. He plays for a Vegas team that has a Vegas win total of just 6.5 wins and should be trailing (and therefore throwing) often, and a starting QB in Gardner Minshew who has targeted running backs on 19.5% of his career passes. The Raiders’ starting RB Zamir White is a 2-down grinder who has 32 total receptions since the start of his college career. Laube’s primary competition for the 3rd-down role is 31-year-old Ameer Abdullah, who has hit 40+ targets in a season just twice in his career. There’s a real chance Laube takes that 3rd down role early in the year and runs with it. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like he’s going to get the first crack at it this week. He’s currently listed as the team’s RB4 on the depth chart as the Raiders head into a matchup against a Chargers team that allowed the 3rd-most receptions and 2nd-most receiving yards per game to running backs last year. He would’ve had a great chance at a splashy debut if he already had the 3rd down role.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 1: @SF): Allen appears to have cemented himself as the RB2 for the Jets this season, but Breece Hall is going to see the vast majority of the opportunities, and this 49er defense allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game last season.
RB MarShawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 1: @Phi.): Lloyd will likely serve as Josh Jacobs’ primary backup for much of the season, but a hamstring injury has limited his practice time in the last couple weeks and likely means Emanuel Wilson will serve as the team’s RB2 in the opener. If you drafted Lloyd, monitor his usage in this game, but I think he’ll be limited to just a few snaps. Both he and Wilson are listed as questionable this week, so it could be a heavy Josh Jacobs week.
WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 1: @NO): Leggett could play a meaningful role for the Panthers early in the season, but I think a wait-and-see approach is best for this offense. The WR depth chart after Diontae Johnson is a question mark, but I’d expect Adam Thielen to be on the field more often than not, so Leggett will probably be at best splitting snaps with Jonathan Mingo in week 1. The Panthers’ passing game was a mess last year and the Saints allowed the 9th-fewest WR points per game in ‘23, so betting on a rookie who *might* be the WR3 in week 1 seems like a bad bet.
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 1: vs. NE): Burton was a popular sleeper pick after putting up gaudy numbers against 3rd & 4th stringers in the preseason, but recent reports from beat writers have dumped cold water on the excitement. The Athletic’s Paul Dehner speculated that the Bengals could treat this as a redshirt season for Burton and that he may be as low as 6th on the WR depth chart to open the season. “The bottom line is he can’t be running the wrong route as often as occurred in practice and preseason games (even on plays he made),” Dehner wrote. “The Bengals won’t put him out there – or even make him active on gameday – until they feel comfortable he’s preparing in meetings, will be in the right spots and can be trusted by the quarterback.” Burton apparently has a long way to go to be relevant as a rookie.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Polk enters the season as the WR4 on the Patriots’ depth chart, behind Tyquan Thornton, Demario Douglas, and KJ Osborn. There’s nothing about that group that says Polk can jump into a starting role early in the year, but there likely won’t be enough production to go around early in the year with Jacoby Brissett at QB. Keep Polk benched until the Patriots show us they can put up stats in the passing game.
WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Wilson was expected to be an important part of the Steelers’ offense after he was picked in the 3rd round in April, but a sprained ankle suffered in camp took away valuable practice time. He’ll open the season as the WR4 behind both Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin. Arthur Smith’s low volume passing attack makes him a less-than-ideal stash option in redraft leagues.
WR Jacob Cowing, SF (Wk. 1: vs. NYJ): Cowing could’ve been staring at some early season opportunity between Brandon Aiyuk’s holdout and a horrible incident where teammate Ricky Pearsall was shot in the chest, but Aiyuk is now re-signed, and that window might’ve slammed shut for now. The 49ers depth chart seems set with Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk, and 3rd WR Jauan Jennings starting. If Aiyuk loses any week 1 snaps due to the rust of not practicing throughout camp, I’d expect those to go to veteran Chris Conley rather than Cowing. If Cowing doesn’t earn some playing time before Pearsall returns, I wouldn’t expect much from him all year.
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 1: @TB): Sinnott could take over as the starting tight end in Washington before long, but for week 1 he’s listed at 3rd on the depth chart behind both Zach Ertz and John Bates. It shouldn’t take long to vanquish Bates, but with Ertz it just depends on how much juice the 33-year-old vet has left. I’d be taking a wait-and-see approach with Sinnott in week 1, even against a Tampa defense that allowed the 4th-most TE points per game a year ago.
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 1: @NO): Sanders is likely the best tight end on the Panthers’ roster, but he opens the year as the TE3 behind Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas. He’ll earn a bigger role as the season progresses, but there’s no reason to put him in lineups yet.
Other notable rookies who open the year buried on the depth chart or hurt: QB Michael Penix Jr., ATL, RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR, RB Will Shipley, PHI, RB Kimani Vidal, LAC, RB Isaac Guerendo, SF, RB Blake Watson, DEN, RB Isaiah Davis, NYJ, WR Ricky Pearsall, SF, WR Brendan Rice, LAC, WR Javon Baker, NE, WR Malachi Corley, NYJ, WR Devontez Walker, BAL, WR Troy Franklin, DEN, TE Erick All, CIN, TE Cade Stover, HOU
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 1: vs. Ari.): Davis enters week 1 as the Bills’ RB2, but it’s an RB2 role that could come with some high-value touches. The Bills haven’t been keen on trusting the undersized James Cook in goal line situations – Cook carried the ball just 5 times last year from the opponent’s 5-yard line or closer. Backup Latavius Murray handled 12 such carries despite having only a third as many total rushing attempts as Cook. If Davis takes over that same Murray role, he’s going to have some touchdown upside in this game where the Bills have the highest Vegas implied point total of the week. The Cardinals ranked 30th last season in run defense DVOA and allowed the 5th-most rushing TDs in the league. There won’t be a ton of volume for Davis this week unless this game turns into a blowout, but there’s a real shot at finding paydirt.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): Irving isn’t getting much of a look in redraft leagues – he’s being drafted outside of the top 50 RBs – but he probably should be getting more love. The coaches have been raving about his work ethic in camp, and the established starter, Rachaad White, was one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL last year. White ranked 40th out of 48 qualified backs in yards per attempt last season. He was much more effective as a receiver, but if Bucky can be effective on the ground he could replace White as the 1A back in this committee. Coach Todd Bowles said the running back rotation is going to be handled week-to-week based on who has the hot hand. It’s open to interpretation if he meant the rotation behind White, or if he’s including White in that statement. Given how ineffective White was on the ground last year, I think there’s a real opportunity for Bucky to lead the Bucs in rushing this season. He shouldn’t be sitting on waiver wires in 12-team leagues.
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): The Dolphins had two of the best running backs in fantasy last season in Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. The pair also both have extensive injury histories and Wright is an explosive runner. The Dolphins love speed, and Wright fits the bill, running a 4.38 forty-yard dash. He’s exactly the kind of back that can put up efficient production in the Dolphins’ offense if he gets the opportunity. Now he just needs the opportunity. I don’t expect it to come in week 1, but he should be stashed in most formats.
WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): McMillan has won the starting WR3 job for the Bucs in camp and gets rewarded with a week 1 matchup against arguably the worst CB group in the NFL. Rookie Mike Sainristil looks like he’ll start at nickel and could be an upgrade to the group, but the Bucs plan on playing Chris Godwin as their primary slot receiver. That means McMillan will be squaring off with Benjamin St. Juste or Emmanuel Forbes most of the time, and both players ranked outside the top-90 cornerbacks in the NFL in PFF coverage grade last year. The Commanders ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA and allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game in 2023. McMillan will still be at best 3rd in line for passing targets behind Mike Evans and Godwin, but this is a matchup where that could lead to a top-40 finish at the position.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 1: vs. Hou.): All signs are pointing to Josh Downs missing week 1 against the Texans, and that means Adonai Mitchell is likely to be a full-time player in the opener. Mitchell was a mercurial prospect at Texas, sometimes looking like the best player on the field (even better than 1st round pick Xavier Worthy), and other times looking disinterested. If Mitchell can be the best version of himself more consistently, he could be a star in the NFL. Michael Pittman has established himself as the Colts’ WR1, but Pittman has thrived on shorter passes and has never ranked in the top-70 WRs in average target depth according to Roto Underworld. There’s a legitimate chance that Mitchell is better suited for the true alpha role than Pittman – he just needs to step up and take it from him. There’s a ton of risk of a bad game here – high passing volume is never a certainty with A-Rich starting at QB, and Pittman is the more proven target - but if Downs doesn’t play, a boom week for Mitchell could make him a top-24 finisher for the week. The Texans have beefed up their defense this offseason, but they ranked just 23rd in pass defense DVOA a year ago.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 1: @TB): It remains to be seen what McCaffrey’s week 1 role is going to look like, but the Commanders’ week 1 depth chart manages to list him as both first string and second string at the same time. At this point it appears that all of McCaffrey, Olamide Zacchaeus, and Dyami Brown will play some snaps alongside Terry McLaurin, but it’s anyone’s guess how those snaps will be divided. With Kliff Kingsbury as OC, we could see a lot of 3- and 4-wide sets and higher passing volume than you might expect with a mobile rookie QB. McCaffrey should be the guy running the higher percentage short routes out of this WR group, which could open the door for him to have some sneaky PPR upside in this one. I wouldn’t expect a high ceiling but wouldn’t be shocked if he posted double-digit PPR points.
TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 1: vs. Min.): Johnson is listed as the TE2 on the Giants’ week 1 depth chart, but reports throughout camp were that he was the best tight end on the team. He’s a physical freak – he stands 6’6”, weighs 259 pounds, and ran a 4.57 forty-yard dash. He’s exactly the kind of athlete you’re looking for when targeting sleeper tight ends. He’s no more than a touchdown dart throw in week 1, but he’s a guy with a lot of upside if you’re weak at tight end and looking for someone to stash.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! As usual, the opening week of the season was full of surprises and disappointments. It was a bad week to be a star tight end (the top 6 tight ends by ADP all failed to score more than 8 PPR points), it was a bad week to be a rookie running back (only two rookie backs played 10+ snaps), it was a bad week to be Marvin Harrison Jr. (1 catch for 4 yards), but it was a good week to be a kicker attempting long field goals (kickers league-wide made 21 out of 23 attempts from 50+ yards).
It was also a good week to be Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Daniels, Jalen McMillan, or Ladd McConkey, who all found the end zone. My biggest piece of advice after week 1 is to not overreact to surprising fantasy point totals. Focus on the player’s usage rather than how many points they scored because touchdowns can be fluky. A player like Alec Pierce isn’t going to score 2 long touchdowns every week on just 3 targets, so we shouldn’t overreact to his point total. Quality volume is the name of the game, and that’s the lens I’ll be using as we get into what to expect in week 2.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 2…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 2: vs NYG): Daniels’ passing performance was less than exciting if you started any of his pass catchers in week 1, but his usage was excellent if you started the rookie QB. He racked up 88 yards on 16 carries, including 8 designed rushing attempts, and found the end zone twice on the ground. Ladies & gentlemen, that’s over 20 fantasy points before you count any passing stats. Of course, he’s not going to run for 2 TDs every week, but his rushing production is going to give him a floor that puts him in the top-12 QBs more weeks than not. He should be treated as a QB1 every week, and especially this week against a bad Giants team that ranked 27th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA a season ago.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): One week into their NFL careers, Nabers is off to the best start of the big 3 WRs in the 2024 draft class. Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t set a high bar for him to clear after combining for just 15 yards last Sunday, but Nabers cleared it with ease, finishing with 5 catches for 66 yards on 7 targets, good for PPR WR32 for the week. He ran an absurd 50 routes, 10 more routes than any of his teammates, and although Wan’Dale Robinson led the team in targets, Nabers is the clear alpha WR1 on this team. An interesting tidbit about Nabers’ debut: He ran 7 routes on plays where he went in motion pre-snap and was targeted on 6 of those plays. He had just 1 target on the other 43 routes run. I’m sure it’s something the Giants are aware of and will look to do more of in week 2. The biggest plus for Nabers this week is that he gets to face off with arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL. Washington allowed the most WR points per game and ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA a year ago, and in week 1 this year they allowed the 2nd-most WR points and ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA. This is a game where Nabers’ floor could be higher than his final line from last week. He did pop up on the injury report mid-week with a knee issue, so have a backup plan ready, but if Nabers is good to go, start him with confidence.
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Week 1 for Harrison could only be labeled a massive disappointment. He earned just 3 targets in his debut despite leading the team with a 95% route participation rate, and he finished with just 1 catch for 4 yards. When asked about Marv’s lack of involvement, QB Kyler Murray said he trusts in OC Drew Petzing, and that it isn’t his job to force the ball to Harrison. That tells me that Harrison probably wasn’t the first read in many of the plays that Petzing called. I’d expect that to change a bit this week. The Cardinals didn’t draft Harrison where they did to not use him. Speaking of where Marv was drafted, you didn’t draft Harrison in the 2nd round of your fantasy drafts to sit him on the bench. I know week 1 was painful, but I’d advise rolling with him again this week against a Rams’ defense that allowed the 7th-most WR points in week 1. I understand if you’re not willing to do that, but the targets are going to come.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Worthy made a splashy debut last Thursday, finding the end zone twice and piling up 68 scrimmage yards on just 3 touches. The resulting top-10 finish for the week was great, but the underlying usage is what we were afraid of. Worthy’s long speed is going to be valuable to the Chiefs in opening up underneath routes for Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, but it probably won’t result in a ton of targets for the rookie himself, so he’ll need to keep making splash plays to help your fantasy team. I think he will keep it up for week 2 at least. The Bengals allowed the 2nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the NFL last season, and corner Cam Taylor-Britt may have poked the bear this week when asked about Worthy, saying “He can run straight…He can’t do much else, so that’s about it.” That’s the kind of bulletin board material that often backfires on the person providing it. I like Worthy’s chances of making Taylor-Britt eat his words this week and hitting the boom side of his boom-or-bust profile.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia.): We entered week 1 not really knowing what to expect from the Buffalo receiver rotation, but coming out of week 1, it looks like Keon Coleman is the WR1. Coleman led the team with a 90% route participation rate (no other WR was above 70%), and he had a team-high 5 targets that he turned into 4 catches for 51 yards. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but week 2 could see a better performance against a Miami defense that allowed the 11th-most WR points per game last year and struggles against Josh Allen. Since the start of the 2022 season, Josh Allen has played 40 games against teams that are not the Miami Dolphins (playoffs included). In those games, he’s thrown for 300+ yards 10 times, and 350+ yards twice. In that same time frame, he’s played the Dolphins 5 times. He’s topped 300 yards against them in all 5 and put up 350+ yards in 3 of them. I don’t necessarily expect quite that many passing yards this year with a whole new WR group, but this feels like a week where the passing game could boom, and Coleman could be a big beneficiary of that. I’d treat him as an upside WR3.
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 2: @ Bal.): At first glance, Bowers’ final stat line of 6-58-0 doesn’t jump off the page at you, but with so many of the top tight ends underperforming in week 1, it was good for a top-5 finish for the week, and the underlying usage was phenomenal. Bowers was in a route on 78% of the team passing dropbacks, and he earned a team-high 7 targets against the Chargers. I mentioned last week that Bowers led Georgia in receiving every year he was there, and it looks like he’ll waste no time pushing for a similar role in the NFL. I don’t expect him to overtake Davante Adams and lead the team in targets, but he should be #2. The defensive matchup this week is a tough one. The Ravens ranked 1st in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 9th-fewest TE points per game. They had a hard time slowing Patrick Mahomes in week 1 but should fare better against Gardner Minshew. Even in this tough matchup though, I think Bowers is a top-10 TE play this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 2: @ Hou.): Caleb’s debut performance did not go according to plan. He missed some throws he should make; his vaunted receiving weapons didn’t help him out very much, he finished with a pathetic 3.2 yards per attempt, and to make matters worse, he lost Rome Odunze to injury in the process. The Bears’ defense managed to bail Williams out and help the team to a win, but Caleb needs to play better. I expect improvement this week against a Houston defense that allowed the 11th-most QB points per game last season and had the 6th-lowest pressure rate in the league last week, but without Odunze I have a hard time viewing Caleb as more than a lower-end QB2 in this one. On the plus side, there should be passing volume with the Bears nearly a touchdown underdog.
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): Until a couple of 4th quarter drives last Sunday, Nix was having an even worse week than Caleb. As I expected, he struggled with Mike McDonald’s complex coverage disguises and threw two costly interceptions. Bo managed to put together a solid TD drive in the final minutes to make the final score look close and finish as the QB16 for the week, but he had just 3.3 fantasy points entering that final drive. There are things to like here – Bo showed that he can provide rushing production even though the Broncos aren’t calling designed runs for him (5-35-1 on the ground on 5 scrambles), and Sean Payton was willing to let him drop back and throw more than 40 times in his first game. Unfortunately, his matchup isn’t any easier this week. The Steelers dominated Kirk Cousins in week 1, generating the 8th-highest pressure rate in the league and holding Cousins to the 5th-lowest QB score of the week. If Nix doesn’t find the end zone with his legs again, he’ll have a hard time matching his week 1 output. I’d treat Nix as a fringe QB2 this week.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 2: @ Det.): Irving was the most impressive of the rookie backs last week, putting up 76 scrimmage yards on 11 touches while most other rookie backs didn’t play even 10 snaps. 8 of those 11 touches occurred in the second half while the Bucs were up by multiple scores. I wouldn’t count on that happening again this week against Detroit, where the Bucs are a touchdown underdog. Starter Rachaad White has been wildly inefficient as a runner (3.6 ypc last season, 2.1 ypc in week 1), leading to speculation that Irving may eventually steal some of his workload, but the Bucs love what White provides in the passing game. Rachaad was 2nd on the team in the opener with 6 catches and 75 receiving yards. I don’t expect a drastic shift in rushing workload in week 2, and the Lions are a stout run defense anyway. They ranked first in run defense DVOA a year ago and allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and they limited the Rams’ backfield to the 7th-fewest fantasy points in week 1. Don’t expect a repeat of week 1 for Bucky in this matchup. It’ll be a win if he breaks 30 scrimmage yards.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 2: @ Car.): McConkey’s usage looked pretty much how we expected it to in week 1. He was 3rd among Chargers’ WRs in route participation rate, playing mostly in the slot, but he was their most-targeted pass catcher, putting up 5-39-1 on 7 targets. The problem for McConkey is his 5.3-yard aDOT. With that kind of usage in the short part of the field, he’s going to either need volume or a touchdown to turn in a quality fantasy day, and I’m just not convinced they’ll need to throw much to beat the Panthers. The Chargers want to run the ball as much as they can, and the Panthers are going to have a hard time giving them compelling reasons to throw it. If you trust the Panthers to keep this game competitive, McConkey is a reasonable WR3 option. If you expect a blowout, you’re praying for a touchdown if you start him.
WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Cle.): Thomas finished his debut as a top-20 PPR WR, but I’m not counting on a repeat performance in week 2. Thomas’ fantasy day was buoyed by a touchdown catch, but my concern for the Jaguars’ pass catchers is that the team seems to be more run-heavy this year than in previous years. They ran 50 offensive plays in week 1, and 26 of them were rushing plays, including 12 for Tank Bigsby. That run-heavy approach could’ve been matchup related – the Jaguars were up by 2 scores early in the game, and running the ball limits how many possessions the explosive Dolphins’ offense gets – but it’s still a little troubling. T-Law didn’t throw fewer than 29 pass attempts in any game last season, so 21 in the opener isn’t a great sign. Thomas’ 4 targets last Sunday actually tied for the team lead. The Browns were an elite pass defense last year, so I tend to trust that they’re better than they looked in week 1 against Dallas. I’d err on the side of sitting Thomas this week in a bad matchup so we can get a better idea of whether the Jags’ low passing volume is a trend or just a week 1 fluke.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 2: @ GB): I’m not sure any single player left more fantasy points on the field in week 1 than Mitchell. The rookie pulled in just 1 catch for 2 yards on 5 targets in the opener, but he and Anthony Richardson just missed connecting on deep targets that could’ve gone for TDs not once, not twice, but thrice. It’s a great sign that Richardson likes to push the ball down the field, but it’s not a great sign that Richardson has had more success doing it when he’s throwing to Alec Pierce rather than Mitchell. Josh Downs returned to practice Wednesday, and if he’s active this week, Mitchell will likely be relegated to competing for WR3 snaps with Pierce. Given how Pierce performed in week 1, I’m not sure Mitchell would get any more than a 50/50 split, if he even gets that. Green Bay isn’t a great pass defense, ranking 26th in pass defense DVOA a year ago, but they didn’t let opponents take the top off. The Packers allowed just 3 completions of 40+ yards all season. If Downs plays, I’d keep Mitchell parked on the bench. If Downs sits, Mitchell becomes a volatile WR4 option.
WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 2: @ Det.): McMillan pulled in just 1 of his 3 targets last week, but he made it count, securing a 32-yard touchdown to start the 4th quarter. His other two targets both also looked like they might go for touchdowns if Jalen had managed to haul them in, so he narrowly missed out on a massive day. It was promising to see he’ll be used as a full-time receiver in this offense (he was in a route on 88% of the team passing dropbacks), but 3 targets on 30 routes and a high aDOT screams boom-or-bust. He’ll be a low-volume WR3 behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and while that resulted in a nice TD catch in week one against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL, it’s not guaranteed to happen again in Detroit. The Lions allowed a league-high 69 completions of 20+ yards last season, but they also went out and signed Carlton Davis and drafted Terrion Arnold to improve their starting CB spots. Cooper Kupp still had a field day against them last week, but they’re certainly better than the Commanders. McMillan is a boom-or-bust WR4 option in Detroit on Sunday.
WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Legette’s usage in week 1 was promising. His 59% route participation was lower than you’d like for a fantasy starter, but he led the team in catches and targets, and saw an impressive 37% share of the air yards for the week. All of that usage only led to 7.5 PPR points though, and the Chargers look like a much-improved defense in 2024 under Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter. The Chargers ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA a season ago, and ranked 8th in week 1. Of course, that could be because they faced Gardner Minshew, but I’m not sure Bryce Young is a tougher QB to defend at this point. Legette is probably in line for similar usage this week, which makes him a WR4/5 option.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): McCaffrey was 2nd on the Commanders behind Terry McLaurin in week 1 with a 71% route participation rate, but his upside is capped by Jayden Daniels’ unwillingness to push the ball down the field (could be a scheme issue rather than QB issue), and his penchant for scrambling. Daniels dropped back 34 times in week 1, and attempted just 24 passes, and the 3 passes that went in McCaffrey’s direction totaled negative-2 air yards. He finished with 3 catches for 18 yards on those targets. McCaffrey gets a favorable matchup this week against a Giants’ defense that allowed the 5th-most WR points per game last year, but the Washington passing game is a work in progress, and I don’t expect a breakout game for the rookie this week.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): Tracy was one of just two rookie running backs to play 10+ snaps in week 1, but his 14 snaps amounted to just 3 touches and 7 yards. The Giants get a much better matchup this week against a bad Commanders’ defense, but I wouldn’t have enough trust in Tracy to plug him into lineups.
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia.): There was a lot of excitement about Davis potentially playing the ‘Latavius Murray role’ in the offense behind James Cook, where he would see goal line opportunities in addition to change-of-pace work. Instead, he played just 6 snaps and served as the 3rd-string running back behind both Cook and Ty Johnson, and the only Bill to handle a rushing attempt inside the 5-yard line was Cook. Davis still has some work to do before you can plug him into the lineup.
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Like Ray Davis above, Benson opened the season one spot lower on the depth chart than we were hoping for, handling RB3 duties behind workhorse James Conner and Emari Demercado. Demercado played more in passing situations, while Benson spelled Conner on early downs. Even if he had all the backup work behind Conner, he likely still wouldn’t be getting enough work to be a viable fantasy starter. Demercado and Benson combined for just 6 touches in week 1.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Steele’s role in week 1 played out pretty much as I expected it to. He was merely an early down change of pace back when Isiah Pacheco needed a breather. The rookie played just 4 snaps and handled 2 rushing attempts while Samaje Perine played 8 snaps in passing situations. A couple carries isn’t enough for fantasy relevance, even against a mediocre Bengals run defense (they ranked 28th in run defense DVOA a season ago).
RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 2: @ Min.): Guerendo served as the RB2 for the 49ers when Christian McCaffrey was a surprise inactive on Monday night, but it’s not a role that makes him fantasy relevant, even if CMC misses another game or two. Jordan Mason was fantastic as the fill-in RB1 last week, piling up 147 yards and a TD, and his change-of-pace back was Deebo Samuel. Whenever CMC is out, the 49ers lean more heavily on Deebo out of the backfield. Samuel carried the ball 8 times on Monday night while Guerendo was limited to just 3 snaps.
RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Ari.): Corum’s time will come. He’ll eventually work his way into the RB2 role behind Kyren Williams, but for now he’s running behind Ronnie Rivers as well. Corum didn’t play a single snap in week 1 and will be limited to kick return duties for the time being. Don’t get impatient if you drafted Corum but know that he probably won’t play a very meaningful role in these first few weeks.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 2: @ Ten.): Allen logged 8 snaps in week 1, but many of those came late in the game after the Jets had fallen behind and pulled Aaron Rodgers from the game. This backfield wholly belongs to Breece Hall, and Allen is just hoping for scraps. The Titans are a tough matchup for running backs even when they do get opportunities. I don’t expect Allen to get many of them.
RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Lloyd was inactive in week 1 with a hamstring injury, and there’s a good chance that even if he’s good to play this week, he may serve as the RB3 behind Josh Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson. This Colts’ defense got dismantled by Joe Mixon in week 1, and Jordan Love is out with injury, so the Packers will likely lean on the ground game. If all 3 Packer backs are active, I wouldn’t expect more than a handful of touches for Lloyd. Josh Jacobs did pop up with an injury as well this week, but it doesn’t sound serious. I’d expect him to be in line for his usual workload.
RBs Audric Estime & Blake Watson, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): I was going to talk about Estime playing just 3 snaps in the opener, but if you missed the news, he was placed on IR on Wednesday and will miss at least the next 4 games. That means Blake Watson will step up into the RB3 role going forward, but I don’t expect him to find substantial playing time. Jaleel McLaughlin was terribly inefficient in week 1, tallying just 28 total yards on 15 touches, but he was hardly the only inefficient Bronco in the opener. I wouldn’t expect a drastic change in playing time in the backfield for week 2. Watson could be worth a stash in deep PPR leagues though in case that inefficiency continues.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Polk didn’t start in week 1, but he played essentially a starter’s share of the snaps. He was in a route on 62% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but that led to just 1 target that he caught for 6 yards. The New England passing offense is going to be conservative as long as Jacoby Brissett is under center, and the Seahawks’ defense looked stellar in week 1 – they ranked 2nd in pass defense DVOA for the week. I wouldn’t count on Polk breaking through this week.
WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 2: @ Den.): It’s still unclear whether Wilson will make his NFL debut this week (he’s getting in limited practices as of Wednesday), but he’d be a lackluster fantasy option even if we knew he was being inserted right into the starting lineup. With Justin Fields at QB, the Steelers attempted just 23 passes in week 1, and half of the targets went to George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. Wilson would be splitting the other half with the running backs, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and the backup tight ends (we all know how Arthur Smith likes his backup tight ends). Wait until we see what Roman’s usage looks like before starting him.
WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Ari.): The Rams’ WR room took a big hit in week one when Puka Nacua suffered an injury that will land him on IR and sideline him for at least 4 weeks. Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson figure to be the biggest beneficiaries of the available playing time, but Whittington could see a bump as well. He technically only played 2 offensive snaps in the opener, but he did have a goal-line TD run get called back due to penalty. One goal-line rushing attempt isn’t enough reason to start him this week, but you could see his role grow during Puka’s absence. Whittington put up gaudy numbers during the preseason when the 1st and 2nd stringers were sitting and impressed the coaches.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 2: @ Hou.): If you missed the news, Odunze sprained his MCL last weekend and is considered week-to-week. He’s almost certain to miss this week’s tilt with the Texans.
WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 2: @ Ten.): Corley didn’t run a single route in week 1, and there’s not much reason to expect a drastic change in week 2. If anything, the competition for playing time will get tougher after a strong opener by Allen Lazard and with Mike Williams getting healthier. There’s no reason to fire up Corley.
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 2: @ KC): The Bengals were without Tee Higgins in week 1 and Burton still didn’t come close to cracking the WR rotation. He played behind all of Andrei Iosivas, Trenton Irwin, and Charlie Jones, and ran just 1 route in week 1. Tee Higgins looks to be on the wrong side of questionable again this week, but Burton likely isn’t going to pick up much playing time as a result.
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Sanders was on the field a lot in week 1, running a route on 69% of the Panthers’ passing dropbacks, but he was targeted just once, and he was 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage on that target. Even though he’s playing starter’s snaps, this is a broken passing game where he’s an afterthought in the target pecking order for now.
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): If Sinnott is going to play a major role in the Commanders offense this season, it’s going to happen later in the season than we’d like. He played behind both Zach Ertz and John Bates in week 1, running just 3 target-less routes. There’s upside here, especially with the Commanders’ scheme focusing on short passes for Jayden Daniels, but you’re going to have to be patient and wait for his playing time to come up.
Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Wright was a healthy scratch in week 1, but that almost certainly won’t be the case in week 2 with Raheem Mostert already ruled out for Thursday night’s game and De’Von Achane questionable as well. Jeff Wilson Jr. served as the RB3 in the opener, and he has more experience in this offense, but Wright’s big-play ability makes him the more enticing fantasy option. We know the Dolphins love game-breaking speed, and Wright has plenty of it. If Achane plays, look for Wright to only log a handful of touches, but there’s a chance he could break any one of them for a big play. If Achane sits, I’d expect Wilson to get the start, but would expect Mike McDaniel to be willing the ride the hot hand if Wright gets it going. If Achane sits, I’d see Wright as an upside RB3 option this week.
Update: De’Von Achane is active for Thursday night
WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): The Broncos passing game was an ugly slog of short passes, but a lot of those short passes found their way to Vele, and he did a great job of hauling in the targets that came his way. The rookie had 8 targets with just a 2-yard average target depth, but he did catch all 8 passes for 39 yards and finish the week as a top-30 PPR WR. It’s clear Bo Nix and Sean Payton like Vele, and Denver’s pass-heavy approach should make him a viable PPR WR3 in a lot of weeks. The Steelers do boast a strong pass defense, so I wouldn’t be too aggressive about getting Vele into the lineup this week, but he should probably be rostered in most 12-team PPR leagues.
TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): Johnson’s week 1 usage was a big surprise after the Giants’ listed Daniel Bellinger as their starting tight end on their final depth chart. Johnson was in a route on 76% of the team’s dropbacks while Bellinger was in a route on just 16%. Johnson is the starting tight end. This week isn’t a great matchup to plug Johnson in – the Commanders get shredded by wide receivers but allowed the 10th-fewest TE points per game a year ago – but he shouldn’t be sitting on waivers in deeper leagues, especially 2-TE or TE premium leagues. Johnson is an impressive athlete and had an 18% air yardage share in week 1 on his 4 targets. You’d prefer he had a better QB throwing him the ball, but there are some spike weeks in Johnson’s future with his physical traits and playing time.
TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Spann-Ford is really only a name you need to be familiar with in the deepest of TE-premium leagues. Cowboys’ starter Jake Ferguson suffered a sprained MCL late in Dallas’ opening win against the Browns, and it was the UDFA rookie Spann-Ford that was 2nd on the team in tight end routes run, and not 2023 2nd-round pick Luke Schoonmaker. Both will likely factor in while Ferguson is sidelined (a sprained MCL should keep him out for a few weeks), but if I had to pick one to target, I’d rather add Schoonmaker than Spann-Ford. It's likely the rookie saw extended snaps in the opener due to the lopsided score. Schoonmaker is a better athlete, has more sure hands (PFF credited Brevyn with 9 drops in 2023 despite catching just 25 passes), and more pro experience. I’d treat Schoonmaker as a streaming TE2 option and Spann-Ford as a stash to watch this week if you need immediate TE help in deep leagues.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.