Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it one-sixth of the way through the NFL season and the fantasy picture is starting to come into clearer focus. We now have a 3-game sample to assess which fast starts are for real and which ones are not and adjust accordingly. It’s been a sluggish start for much of the rookie crop. Yes, there have been huge successes like Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr., but there have also been disappointments like Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, Trey Benson, and until this week Rome Odunze. Consistency will come with time and reps, but for now the number of rookies that are providing useful weekly performances in typical leagues is a bit limited.
This week’s report is going to be a bit shorter than usual due to some personal time constraints I have this week, but I promise there’s still plenty to talk about and we should be back to normal next week. I’m just cutting out some backup running backs and tight ends that aren’t playing enough for consideration.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s talk week 4…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 4: @ Ari.): If you missed the late Monday Night Football game the other night, you missed a heck of a coming out party for Jayden Daniels. Daniels was efficient in the first two weeks of the season, but didn’t really take many chances pushing the ball downfield. In week 3 he was surgical, completing 91% of his passes for over 250 yards and 2 scores, and he added another 39 yards and a score with his legs. He turned the field goal drives from week 2 into touchdowns in week 3, and he’s now gone two straight games with a score on every single drive (excluding kneel down drives). Arizona’s defense has done a nice job against veterans Matt Stafford and Jared Goff in the last 2 weeks, but Daniels is playing efficient football and should be treated as a top-8 QB option against the Cardinals.
WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): Harrison is a top-5 wide receiver play this week against the awful Commanders secondary. Marv has been at a 30% or better target share in each of the last 2 weeks, and that could creep even higher this week if Trey McBride is out. Every WR1 who has faced the Commanders this year has put up at least 23 PPR points.
WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Dal.): I wasn’t surprised when Nabers shredded the Commanders’ secondary in week 2. I was at least a little surprised when he did the same to the talented Browns’ secondary in week 3, posting his second consecutive top-4 PPR finish. The Cowboys have allowed just the 10th-fewest WR points per game so far, but Nabers is an auto-start WR1 until he gives us a reason to think otherwise.
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Don’t be alarmed by Bowers’ underwhelming performance in week 3. It’s a little concerning that he logged his lowest route participation rate of the season, but he should remain a focal point of the offense going forward. His 7.1 PPR points for the week were less than 2 points short of a top-10 finish, and still higher than the averages we’ve seen this year for Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Sam LaPorta. Bowers remains a locked-in top-10 TE play going forward.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): It didn’t translate into a victory, but Caleb Williams posted his best day yet as a passer in week 3, racking up 363 yards and 2 TDs in Indy. He also threw 2 interceptions, and his comeback efforts fell short, but the QB13 finish for the week was promising. This week he faces a Rams’ defense that ranks 31st in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 3rd-most QB points per game. We saw last week that Caleb can rack up stats against a lackluster pass defense, and he gets a chance to do it again this week. I’d treat him as a clear starter in 2-QB and superflex formats and would be comfortable starting him in 1-QB formats if you don’t feel great about your starting option this week.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 4: @ LAC): Don’t be alarmed by the news that Kareem Hunt will be active in week 4. He takes the roster spot of Keaontay Ingram, who played zero snaps last week. He could mix in for a few plays and his role may grow in the coming weeks, but this should remain Steele’s backfield for now. The backfield split played out pretty much as I expected it to in week 3, with Steele leading the way and playing the bulk of the early down and short down & distance snaps, and Samaje Perine playing most of the 2-minute and long down & distance snaps. I expect a similar breakdown this week, but with Kansas City favored by 7.5-points, there should be plenty of opportunities for Steele to run the ball. The Chargers have been strong against the run so far, ranking 6th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 8th-fewest RB points per game, but Steele is going to get enough volume that he should be a viable RB2 this week. I like him better in half and non-PPR formats than I do in full PPR.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Den.): As I mentioned in this article last week, Allen’s week 2 breakout game wasn’t a fluke. The usage was for real. After seeing 11 opportunities in week 2, Allen saw 14 of them in week 3 and finished as a top-30 back again. Breece Hall is still the unquestioned leader of this backfield, but Allen should get enough work against a middling Denver run defense that he’s a reasonable RB3/flex option this week, and he’s going to be a valuable bye week fill-in in the coming weeks. The Broncos have allowed 2 backs to finish in the top-36 PPR backs for the week in each of their 3 games this season.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): Odunze benefitted from Caleb’s breakout passing performance last week with a breakout performance of his own. The Bears finally used Rome as a key cog in their passing game – he earned a 24% target share and huge 49% air yardage share against the Colts and finished as the WR7 for the week with a 6-112-1 line – and he should be in line for another strong day this week against a bad Rams’ defense. The Rams have allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game, and Odunze should be treated as a fringe WR2 in the plus matchup. Two caveats I want to mention here though…keep an eye on Keenan Allen’s injury report. Odunze should be downgraded to a fringe WR3 if Allen is able to play. And keep an eye on the weather report. September in Chicago can be wet and windy, and it looks like there’s a chance of a rainy Sunday as of now (Wednesday).
WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 4: @ Hou.): Through 3 games this season, Thomas has finished as a top-40 PPR WR three times, and I think there’s a strong chance he makes it 4-for-4 this week. The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog this week and will likely be throwing a bunch, and they’ve made a point to get the ball to Thomas on deep balls and off play action. The Texans have allowed the 11th-most WR points per game and looked vulnerable downfield in week 1 when they allowed 3 completions of 50+ yards to the Colts. Thomas should be involved enough to compile his way to a fringe WR3 day even if he doesn’t catch a long ball, but you’ll be kicking yourself if he’s sitting on your bench and that long ball does connect.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. KC): The final result in week 3 didn’t look great for McConkey – he posted 3-44 on 6 targets against the Steelers – but he set season-highs with an 88% route participation rate and 30% target share. He’s quickly becoming a trusted weapon in this offense, and that could lead to a nice week in a game where the Chargers will likely have to throw more than they have all year. LA has averaged just 22 pass attempts per game while largely playing from the lead, but they’re 7.5-point underdogs to KC this week, and will likely have to throw 30+ times, no matter who is at QB. I expect Justin Herbert to be good to go, but if he’s not and it’s Taylor Heinicke instead, I still like McConkey’s chances at 7+ targets against a Chiefs defense that ranks just 23rd in pass defense DVOA. Ladd should be a passable PPR WR3 this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): At this point, you’re probably looking at me a little sideways for telling you I’d lean toward starting Caleb Williams and sitting Nix when Nix hasn’t been outscored by Williams yet this season, but I stand by it. Nix has been getting by with passing volume and rushing production, but his yards per attempt sit at a dismal 5.3, he’s yet to throw a touchdown pass, and he faces a menacing Jets’ defense that has allowed just 1 QB touchdown of any kind all season. The Jets have allowed the 2nd-fewest QB points per game through 3 weeks. I’d treat Nix as a low-end QB2 for week 4.
RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): Irving has been a popular waiver wire pickup this week after he posted a top-20 finish last week and Head Coach Todd Bowles announced after the game that he’s earned more work going forward, but I think that hype is a little premature. There’s no question Irving has been Tampa’s most efficient back, averaging 6.2 yards per carry to Rachaad White’s 2.1, but White still played more than twice as many snaps as Irving last week, and Bowles when given the opportunity denied that Irving had moved ahead of White on the depth chart. This may be closer to a 50-50 split going forward, but the Bucs still love White on passing downs and in the red zone. The Eagles have been a middling run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve yet to allow a running back TD all year. If that continues this week, Irving likely winds up a lackluster RB3/RB4 for the week.
WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Week 1 with Andy Dalton under center for the Panthers was a smashing success with Dalton piling up 319 yards and 3 TDs en route to a blowout win over the Raiders. Unfortunately for Legette, he didn’t get to join in on the fun much with just an 8% target share and 51% route participation rate. Adam Thielen was placed on IR this week, so Legette should see a jump in playing time, but it’s murky how much production that will lead to. Legette has been playing behind Jonathan Mingo through the first 3 weeks, and in Dalton’s first start, Diontae Johnson was a target hog. There’s plenty of opportunity for passing production here – the Bengals rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA – but Legette is likely no higher than 3rd in the pecking order. I’d view him as a fringe WR4 with upside, but he is worth a stash if he’s available in your league with bye weeks coming up and Adam Thielen out for a month.
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 4: @ LAC): Worthy’s route participation rate has been around 70% or higher in all 3 games this season, but he’s averaging just 5 opportunities per game (targets + rush attempts combined). He has yet to log more than 2 catches in a game this year and he faces a Charger defense that has allowed the 7th-fewest WR points per game. You’re betting on a big play or two if you decide to start him. His basic function in this offense has been to run deep routes to clear out coverage to get Rashee Rice open.
WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 4: @ Bal.): Coleman salvaged his week 3 performance by finding the end zone, but he saw a season-low 32% route participation rate and was targeted just once in a game where the Bills threw the ball all over the Jaguars. The fact that his role has been shrinking as the Bills have hit their offensive stride doesn’t make me feel great about plugging him in this week, even against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 5th-most WR points per game.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): You do not want to chase the RB3 in an offense quarterbacked by either Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley. The Dolphins will probably be without Skylar Thompson in week 4, leaving Boyle and Huntley as the fill-in options. It remains to be seen if Raheem Mostert will be back for this game, but Wright will still fight for backup snaps with Jeff Wilson Jr. if Mostert remains out. The Titans have allowed the 11th-most RB points per game so far, but Wright will likely only see a few touches and the Dolphins’ offense figures to struggle due to their QB situation. They have an implied point total of just 18.25 points.
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 4: @ Bal.): Davis has been one of the more involved backup rookie running backs this season, tallying 18 touches in the last two weeks, but 14 of those 18 touches have come with the Bills leading by more than 2 touchdowns. This week’s contest, where the Bills are 2.5-point underdogs in Baltimore, figures to be much tighter than the last two. The Ravens have allowed the 5th-fewest running back points per game, and I wouldn’t expect more than just a few touches for Davis unless the game script is drastically different than Vegas expects.
RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): Benson tallied 11 carries in garbage time in week 2 but was back to his usual limited opportunities in week 3 in a much more competitive game with the Lions. Benson played just 2 snaps while fellow backup Emari Demercado played 11.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 4: @ Ari.): McCaffrey made a couple nice plays in week 3, but he’s also slipped to 3rd on the depth chart as Noah Brown has worked his way into the WR2 role behind Terry McLaurin. Luke put up 3-44 on 3 targets Monday night and nearly found his way into the end zone, but his route participation rate was down to just 35%. It’s possible he will see a couple extra short targets this week with Austin Ekeler out after suffering a concussion Monday, but it’s hard to trust a player who needs volume to produce when he’s only on the field a third of the time.
WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 4: @ NYJ): Vele still has some PPR upside if he’s able to return this week, but it’s hard to envision him slipping seamlessly back into the same role he played in week 1 after missing the last two contests. The Jets have been vulnerable in the slot, allowing strong games to Jauan Jennings (5-64 on 5 targets) and Pop Douglas (7-69 on 9 targets), but Lil’Jordan Humphrey has established himself in that role over the last two weeks, and I don’t expect Vele to take over completely in his first game back. Vele’s upside comes from being peppered with short targets, so any threat to his snap volume is a threat to his fantasy outlook.
WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 4: @ Chi.): I had hope for Whittington with Kupp and Nacua both on IR, but the re-emergence of Tutu Atwell in this passing game has pushed Whittington down to WR4, and there’s just not enough work for him in that role to be a viable fantasy starter. He tallied 3 catches and 28 yards last week on 3 targets but was in a route on just 34% of the team’s dropbacks. If that workload repeats itself this week against the Bears, who allow the 6th-fewest WR points per game, I’d expect an even lower output than we got last week.
WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): McMillan continues to run a ton of routes (80% route participation rate last week), but the routes just haven’t been converting to targets. He’s been targeted just 6 times in 3 games, and while there’s potential upside against the Eagles, who have allowed the 4th-most WR points per game, it’s impossible to bank on a breakout game with the low target volume McMillan has been seeing.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 4: @ SF): Polk’s playing time is headed in the wrong direction as Demario Douglas and KJ Osborn have emerged as the top 2 receivers in this offense. Polk was down to just a 43% route participation rate in week 3 and hasn’t yet earned more than 3 targets in a game.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Pit.): The return of Josh Downs was a bigger problem for Mitchell than I expected, with Downs stepping into a full-time role immediately. Adonai was limited to just a 9% route participation rate in week 3. He’s unplayable until further notice.
WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 4: @ Ind.): Wilson was held out again in week 3, delaying what I expect will be a multi-week ramp up to a full-time role for the rookie. It doesn’t help Wilson that Calvin Austin played well last week, but Van Jefferson has been mostly a non-factor for the Steelers. There is still room for Wilson to climb this depth chart, but the low team passing volume will cap his ceiling in 2024.
TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): Trey McBride left last Sunday’s contest with a concussion, leaving a tight end void for the Cardinals if he’s unable to get cleared ahead of this week. Reiman is not the player to target if you’re looking to capitalize here. It’s Elijah Higgins who has served as the TE2 in this offense while Reiman has failed to garner a single target on 17 routes this season Reiman could play more snaps than Higgins this week, but I’d expect the converted WR Higgins to be the one that’s more involved as a receiver. The Cardinals have run a lot of multiple-TE sets this year, but I’d expect more 11 personnel in week 4 against a Washington defense that gets shredded by WRs but allows the 6th-fewest TE points per game. Reiman could tally his first career catch, but I’d look elsewhere if you’re searching for a desperation tight end this week.
Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:
RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): I mention Brooks just in case he’s still sitting on your league’s waiver wire. He’s on the PUP list, so he’s ineligible to return until at least week 5, but Pathers’ HC Dave Canales says he’s in the final stages of his recovery, and he could quickly ascend to the top of the Carolina running back depth chart once he’s healthy. He’s worth a stash if you’re struggling at RB and he’s available.
TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 4: @ Car.): All has quietly finished as a top-20 PPR TE in back-to-back weeks and is looking like he may have a bright future in Cincinnati. His playing time remains limited – he’s behind Mike Gesicki and was in a route on just 24% of the team dropbacks last Monday – but the Bengals have looked to get him the ball when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on 32% of his routes run in the last 2 games, and he’s caught all 8 targets that have come his way. He’s worth a stash in dynasty leagues and is a sneaky anytime TD bet this week. The Panthers are the only defense that has allowed multiple tight end touchdowns in the first 3 weeks.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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