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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Is it just me, or did the first month of the season fly by? It was a month full of frustrating injuries, frustratingly low passing volume, and frustrating tight end performances, but there was plenty of good in there too. Several rookies have wasted no time in showing they belong in the NFL, while others are still biding their time and waiting for an opportunity. I think we’ll see a few more of them start to emerge over the next quarter of the season.

Hopefully at this point you find your team sitting in a good place and are not considering doing anything too drastic to change your fortunes. The best course of action for a struggling team is usually to make minor tweaks rather than blow the whole thing up, but you certainly shouldn’t be complacent if you’re sitting at 0-4. We enter the first bye week this weekend, you may be looking at using some players you typically wouldn’t, and I’m guessing for a lot of you, some of those players are rookies. I’m here as always to help you sift through which rookies can propel you to victory.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 5…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Daniels is the QB1 for the season by total points. He’s finished as the QB5 or better in 3 out of 4 weeks, and the Commanders’ offense has only had two drives in the last 3 weeks that didn’t end in points. Everything is clicking for Daniels and Washington, and while this could be the toughest secondary he’s faced yet this season, you can’t sit him. There is a little bit of risk of a down game against a Cleveland defense that allows the 7^th-fewest QB points per game, but I have a feeling Daniels will do enough with his legs to offset any drop off in passing production. The Browns play man-to-man coverage at the 3^rd-highest rate in the league this year, and man-to-man defense can leave open huge rushing lanes if the DBs turn their back to the QB. Cleveland will likely look to use a spy to keep Daniels contained, but I expect at least a couple opportunities to break a long run. Jayden has to be treated as a clear top-10 QB option this week.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Nabers left last week’s game with a concussion, but not before he had tallied 12 catches for 115 yards. There’s a little concern here since Nabers hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol yet, but as long as he gets cleared in time to play, there shouldn’t be any drop-off in his performance level. Nabers has logged 3 straight top-6 PPR finishes and has seen massive target shares in all 3 games (at least a 38% share and 12+ targets in each). The Seahawks are a tough matchup – they rank 9^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but that shouldn’t deter you from starting him. Expecting a 4^th straight top-6 finish may be too lofty, but he’s a locked & loaded WR1 if he’s able to get cleared in time.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Harrison’s fantasy production hasn’t been quite as scintillating as fellow rookie standout Malik Nabers, but after a disaster debut, he’s now logged 3 straight games with 15+ PPR points and at least a 25% target share. The 49ers are a formidable defense, ranking 5^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed 3 different receivers to top 80 yards against them in 4 games. Harrison should have a good chance to be #4. He’s a quality WR2 option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Thomas has been about as consistent as a rookie can be through 4 weeks. His route participation rate has been between 77% and 83% in all 4 weeks, his target share has been 20% or higher in 3 of them, and his air yardage share has been 19% or higher in all 4. While that consistency has been there since week 1, he’s really emerged as a go-to receiver in this offense over the last two weeks, earning 9 targets in each of the last 2 games. His usage and production have made him a weekly fantasy WR3, but his recent uptick in targets and a plus matchup this week give him even more upside in week 5. The Colts have allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game and have allowed a 100-yard receiver in 3 of their 4 games this season. In the only game where they avoided allowing a 100-yard receiving performance, Malik Willis was the opposing starting QB. Thomas should be treated as a WR2 this week and is the likeliest Jaguar pass catcher to top the century mark.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Worthy displayed the feast or famine nature of starting him in fantasy football yet again last week. He’s yet to top 4 targets in any game this year, but he’s also posted a top-10 and a top-20 finish in the weeks where he and Patrick Mahomes have managed to connect on a deep ball (he caught a 54-yard TD in week 4). The problem is that he’s finished outside the top-65 WRs in the weeks where they haven’t connected deep. The upside is still enticing, and while this isn’t a great defensive matchup to attack with Worthy (New Orleans ranks 2^nd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws), I have a feeling we’re going to see Worthy’s floor get elevated with Rashee Rice on IR. The conventional wisdom is that Travis Kelce is going to pick up a lot of that additional work in the short & intermediate part of the field, but I think Worthy benefits as well. He’s still mostly a boom-or-bust player with a low floor, but I think the ceiling makes him a viable WR3 this week, even in a tougher matchup.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Whittington’s role in this Rams’ offense drastically changed from week 3 to week 4, and I think it’s worth us taking notice. I had a lot of hope for Whittington getting a chance in this offense when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua went down, but in week 3 without Kupp, he played behind all of Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson and was limited to just a 34% route participation rate. Something we should’ve paid more attention to is the fact that he was targeted on 30% of his routes in that game. The ball found it’s way to him when he was on the field, and when his route rate jumped up to 97% in week 4, the target rate stayed high. Whittington was targeted 8 times last week and finished with a solid 6-62 line. I think the Rams have found something here, and I expect him to play close to a full-time role again this week against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game and ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA. The Rams are 3.5-point underdogs, so game script should keep them throwing enough for Whittington to find his way to a WR3 finish. He should be a very solid, but unspectacular fill-in option if you’re looking for help covering an injury or bye this week.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 5: @ Den.): Realistically, Bowers still belongs in ‘Rookies You Know You Should Start’ section, but you might take issue with me calling him an auto-start after posting TE15 and TE22 finishes in the last two weeks. You might not realize that he logged his highest route participation rate of the season last weekend (81%) with Michael Mayer out for personal reasons. The targets weren’t exactly there, but Mayer looks to be out again this week and any tight end running a route on 80%+ of a team’s dropbacks should be considered a slam dunk top-10 option for the week. The Broncos aren’t an imposing matchup here. They’ve allowed the 16^th-most TE points per game on the year. You should continue to feel comfortable starting Bowers in all formats unless your format doesn’t require you to start a tight end.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Wiliams, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): Caleb Williams has the same outlook this week that he does most weeks…he’s a weekly QB2 that has some fringe QB1 appeal in really good matchups (especially during bye weeks for other QBs). His matchup this week is a pretty good one – the Panthers allow the 10^th-most QB points per game and rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA, but that’s not quite enticing enough for Caleb to be a top-12 option in my opinion. The Bears are a 4-point favorite, so passing volume could be on the lower end, and I still don’t quite trust Shane Waldron yet. Every opponent the Panthers have faced this year has thrown for multiple TDs against them. If Caleb does that, he should push near a top-12 finish, but I’d view him as a mid-to-high end QB2 this week.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Unlike Caleb Williams, Nix is a borderline option for 2-QB and superflex formats, not 1-QB leagues. Nix posted a performance in week 4 that few QBs have ever matched. He became just the 8^th quarterback to ever throw for 60 or fewer passing yards on 25 or more attempts in a game, and the first QB to do it since Tim Hasselbeck in 2003. Nix is the only QB to ever do that and win the game. It was a level of inefficiency that we just don’t see in the NFL anymore. In fact, at halftime, Nix had 8 completions for negative-7 yards. Things can only get better this week against the Raiders, who rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA, but the Broncos implied Vegas point total is under 20, and only 1 QB this season has found the end zone more than once against the Raiders. Nix’s rushing upside and favorable matchup mean you could plug him in as a QB2 if you had to, but I’d prefer to have a better option available.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 5: @ Atl.): Irving has been a hot waiver wire name now for a couple weeks thanks to a handful of impressive breakaway runs and some coach speak from Todd Bowles ahead of week 4 saying Irving has earned more work. The reality is that this backfield hasn’t shifted as drastically as you might think. Irving was out snapped by Rachaad White 44 to 30 in week 4. The gap between the duo has been narrowing, but White is still the RB1 in this backfield for now. The calls to for Irving to get more playing time were largely due to White’s abysmal rushing efficiency, but in week 4 White matched Irving with 10 carries for 49 yards on the ground. White has also averaged 8.3 yards per target while Irving has averaged just 4.3. Rachaad is going to have to continue to run well to stave off calls for him to lose more work to the rookie, but his receiving work is safe, and he’ll continue to handle about half of the rushing attempts for now as well. That means Irving is going to have to continue generating breakaway runs or find the end zone to be useful in your fantasy lineup, and the Falcons have allowed just 2 rushes of 20+ yards thus far. Atlanta allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. It’s not a great matchup to attack with a running back that’s getting less than 50% of the workload. I’d view Irving as a fringe RB3 this week at best.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 5: @ Min.): Allen has now played 20+ snaps and received 9 or more opportunities in each of the last 3 games, but that usage level continues to make him a clear second fiddle to Breece Hall. He’s already shown us this season that he’s a flex-worthy option in good matchups, and he’s going to prove valuable at some crucial moment during bye weeks, but the matchup this week is rough. The Vikings rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game. It’s just not the right spot to count on Allen making an impact in a part-time role.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 5: vs. NO): Steele may have fumbled away his opportunity to lead the Chiefs’ backfield during Isiah Pacheco’s absence last week. He fumbled his first carry of the game, played one more series, and then was barely seen the rest of the day as Kareem Hunt served as the lead back. Steele finished the game with just a 19% snap share and saw just one opportunity – a target he didn’t catch- after the first 2 drives. Andy Reid said after the game that “he’s got to hang on to the football,” but insisted that Steele is not a fumbler and that they still have confidence in him. I think they’ve at least lost enough confidence in him that he no longer has a stranglehold on the early down work, and that makes him tough to start against a Saints’ defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. He’s got to re-earn that lead back role before you can plug him into lineups.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Legette took a big step forward in week 4 with Adam Thielen sidelined, logging an 88% route participation rate and tallying 6-66-1 on 10 targets, good for a WR13 finish for the week. It’s an extremely positive development for the rookie’s outlook for the next month or so while Thielen is out, but I’m going to be a little bit of a wet blanket here for at least week 5. Legette still ran fewer routes than both Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo last weekend, and his breakout game came against a Cincy defense that has been struggling to contain wide receivers in the last 3 weeks – they’ve allowed 20+ PPR points to 4 different receivers in the last 3 games. The Bears, on the other hand, have allowed just one receiver all year to reach that mark (Nico Collins). Chicago ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. I also think Legette is likely to draw the toughest CB assignment more often than Mingo or Diontae. The Bears have a clear #1 CB in Jaylon Johnson, who has been significantly better than CB2 Tyrique Stevenson and nickel Kyler Gordon. The Bears are predictable about where these corners line up. Mingo in the slot will draw mostly Gordon, and I expect Carolina to do what they can to keep WR1 Diontae Johnson away from Jaylon Johnson, meaning Legette is going to have to tangle with him often. It doesn’t mean Xavier can’t be useful this week. There’s certainly upside and he’s carved out a role, but I see him as more of a WR4 this week than WR3.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Coleman saw his route participation rate in week 4 climb back up to 73% after being all the way down at 31% the week prior, but that additional usage led to just 3 catches on 4 targets, with most of that production coming late in the game when the Bills were in a deep hole on the scoreboard. Houston has been a favorable matchup for fantasy WRs, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, but Coleman just hasn’t been involved enough in the last couple weeks when the games are still in doubt to trust him here. I’d keep him parked on the bench until we see him start to get more early usage in tight games.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. Car.): We got one glorious week of the Bears running their passing game through Odunze in week 3, but in week 4 he was back to running wind sprints. He’s now posted a target share below 15% in 3 out of 4 games this season despite being a full-time player, and he’s finished as the PPR WR50 or worse in all 3 of those games. There are going to be spike weeks when the Bears have to throw the ball a lot, but I worry this week’s contest could look a bit more like last week’s. Caleb Williams dropped back 103 times in weeks 2 & 3 combined as the Bears played from behind against the Texans and Colts. He dropped back just 26 times against the Rams while playing from the lead with the run game finally working. The Bears are 4-point favorites this week against Carolina, so the passing volume could again be a problem for Odunze. A 15% target share and 30 or fewer pass attempts means an uphill climb to a fantasy relevant finish for Rome.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 5: @ NE): Wright played his highest snap share of the season in week 4. He was on the field for 46% of the offensive snaps and was in a route on 54% of the team’s passing dropbacks, turning that usage into 9 rushing attempts and 1 target. The problem is that this offense has been a mess without Tua under center, those opportunities didn’t lead to much production, and Raheem Mostert seems likely to return from injury this week. The Patriots are just a middling run defense, but the Dolphins have a paltry implied total of 17.25 for the week, and Wright will likely serve as the RB3 if Mostert is able to play.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @ Hou.): Davis’ box score performances make it look like he’s had good involvement in the Bills offense, totaling 23 rush attempts in the last 3 games, but all 3 contests were blowouts, and Davis is getting the bulk of his work in garbage time. He’s only reached a 20% snap share once in 4 games, and this week’s contest with the Texans should be close enough that Davis doesn’t get much garbage time work. The Bills are favored by just one point. Davis is basically a TD dart throw with a low chance of hitting the mark.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Tracy has averaged 15 snaps and 4 opportunities per game, which just isn’t enough work behind Devin Singletary to be worthwhile in fantasy lineups.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): Benson handled 30% of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts last week, but much of that work was at the tail end of a blowout loss to the Commanders. He’s still splitting backup work with Emari Demercado, spelling James Conner in early down situations while Demercado spells him on passing downs. This week figures to have more of the latter with the Cardinals a 7.5-point underdog to the 49ers.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 5: vs. GB): Corum hasn’t played a single offensive snap in 3 of the 4 games the Rams have played this season.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Polk saw his best usage of the season in week 4, running a route on 87% of the team dropbacks and earning 7 targets (24% target share). He even made a highlight real catch on a sideline throw dropped between two 49er defenders. The usage was more promising than the 3-30 final stat line that Polk finished with, and I’d be more bullish on Polk going forward if I felt like we could count on that usage continuing, but I don’t think we can. The Patriots’ week-to-week usage of their pass catchers has been very inconsistent, especially when it comes to targets. Each of their top 3 receivers have had at least one week with a 60% route participation rate and 5% or lower target share. They’ve also each posted a week with a 24% or higher target share. It’s impossible to trust any New England wide receiver when the team is averaging less than 150 passing yards per game, and you have no clue which receiver is going to see the target volume from week-to-week.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): McCaffrey was limited to a 47% route participation rate and just 1 target in week 4 as Noah Brown continued his ascent up the WR depth chart. Brown has seen his own route participation rate climb from 32% in week 2 to 58% in week 3 and 72% in week 4. He’s functioning as the clear WR2 behind Terry McLaurin, and McCaffrey is left splitting WR3 work with Olamide Zaccheaus. The Commanders are too run-heavy of an offense to take a chance on a player who is playing half of the WR3 role.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 5: @ Jax.): Mitchell has run just 11 routes and tallied zero catches in the two games since Josh Downs returned to the lineup. There’s a sliver of hope this week that he hits a splash play and winds up fantasy viable – the Colts have still tried to get him the ball deep, throwing 4 targets in his direction for 105 total air yards in the last 2 weeks, and the Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the league. If there isn’t a deep ball connection though, there’s a very real chance Adonai scores zero points yet again.

WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 5: vs. LV): The Raiders rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA this year, so there’s an opportunity for success against them in the passing game, but Franklin and Vele aren’t involved enough to be relied on. Vele had a promising week 1 but has been sidelined with a rib injury since. Now that he’s missed 3 weeks and Lil’Jordan Humphrey has established himself in the slot, Vele will likely have to earn back those reps slowly upon his return. Franklin has seen a small bump in playing time in recent weeks, logging route participation rates of 30 and 35% in the last two games, and Bo Nix targeted him on more than 40% of his routes in each game, but that turned into just 4 catches for 9 yards on 9 targets. His role could increase in future weeks, but neither player here is likely to exceed a handful of PPR points even if they have a good week.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Dal.): Is this the week Wilson is finally activated? It probably won’t matter in fantasy. He’s missed enough time that there will be an inevitable ramp up before he’s playing a meaningful number of snaps. Rumors that the Steelers might trade for a WR diminish his value even further.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): In two games with Tee Higgins back from injury, Burton has run just 5 routes total and earned zero targets.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 5: @ Sea.): Johnson continues to operate as the Giants lead tight end, but the volume just hasn’t been there. He’s averaged nearly a 70% route participation rate, but he’s only been targeted on 5% of the routes he’s run. We saw some promise in week one when he was targeted 4 times, but he’s earned just 4 total targets in the last 3 weeks as Malik Nabers has ascended.

TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): I mention Barner because he got into the end zone on Monday Night Football against Detroit and posted a top-10 finish for the week as a result. There’s not a good reason to chase the touchdown here. Barner has made the most of his opportunities – he’s caught all 5 of his targets this season for 40 yards and a score, but he’s averaged just a 25% route participation rate and is no higher than 7^th in the offensive pecking order on this team. Starting TE Noah Fant has also made the most of his opportunities, pulling in 8 of 8 targets for 86 yards on the year, making it harder for Barner to make real headway.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 5: @ Chi.): Sanders posted his best fantasy day of the season last weekend. He only put up 2 catches for 16 yards, but it was still his best fantasy day of the season. Unfortunately, he also logged his lowest route participation rate of the season as well at just 21%. At this point, Sanders is merely the backup to Tommy Tremble. He hasn’t topped 2 targets in any game this year.

TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 5: @ SF): As I expected last week, it was Elijah Higgins, and not Reiman who served as the Cardinals TE1 with Trey McBride sidelined by a concussion. Reiman was in a route on just 14% of the team dropbacks and wasn’t targeted. McBride is fully expected to be back this week.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): Sinnott has been on the field a little bit more in the last two weeks, reaching a 20% route participation rate in each game, but his next target this season will be his first. He’s still splitting backup TE work with John Bates.

Rookies on Byes in week 5: WR Ladd McConkey, LAC

IR Rookies (practice window not open yet): RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR, RB Audric Estime, DEN, WR Ricky Pearsall, SF

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Jerod Mayo keeps insisting that the Patriots aren’t all that close to making a change at QB, but beat writers have suggested there are rumblings from within the building that the change could be getting close. If Maye is still on the waiver wire in 2-QB redraft leagues, the best time to stash him would be now, before the change happens. If the Patriots fall to the Tyler Huntley-led Dolphins this week and drop to 1-4, it could be Jacoby Brissett’s final start. Maye provides much more upside as a passer than Jacoby, and some rushing upside to boot. The schedule after this week does include some daunting defensive matchups, but there are soft spots against the Jaguars, Rams and Colts that could be great opportunities to start Maye in fantasy.

WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 5: @ KC): Tipton isn’t a player who should be put into lineups this week, but he’s worth mentioning for those of you in deep dynasty leagues because you may not realize the UDFA out of Yale has quietly emerged as the WR3 in New Orleans. It’s not a role that’s bringing a lot of target volume yet (just 4 targets in the last 2 weeks), but he’s logged route participation rates of 48% and 56% in the last 2 games. He’s worth stashing in the deepest dynasty leagues for the inevitable future hamstring injury that will hit Chris Olave or Rashid Shaheed. He doesn’t have the same upside as that pair, but there will be weeks where he sees more targets than he has so far.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): All continues to play second fiddle to Mike Gesicki on the Bengals’ depth chart – he’s logged less than a 40% route participation rate in every game he’s played in - but the ball comes his way when he’s on the field. All has quietly logged 3 straight top-20 PPR finishes and has been targeted on more than a third of his routes in that span. His limited playing time makes him more of a floor play than a ceiling one, but he’s already worth weekly starting consideration in 2-TE formats, and he could be a reasonable bye week fill in for deeper leagues as he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most TE points per game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it one-sixth of the way through the NFL season and the fantasy picture is starting to come into clearer focus. We now have a 3-game sample to assess which fast starts are for real and which ones are not and adjust accordingly. It’s been a sluggish start for much of the rookie crop. Yes, there have been huge successes like Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr., but there have also been disappointments like Keon Coleman, Adonai Mitchell, Trey Benson, and until this week Rome Odunze. Consistency will come with time and reps, but for now the number of rookies that are providing useful weekly performances in typical leagues is a bit limited.

This week’s report is going to be a bit shorter than usual due to some personal time constraints I have this week, but I promise there’s still plenty to talk about and we should be back to normal next week. I’m just cutting out some backup running backs and tight ends that aren’t playing enough for consideration.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s talk week 4…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 4: @ Ari.): If you missed the late Monday Night Football game the other night, you missed a heck of a coming out party for Jayden Daniels. Daniels was efficient in the first two weeks of the season, but didn’t really take many chances pushing the ball downfield. In week 3 he was surgical, completing 91% of his passes for over 250 yards and 2 scores, and he added another 39 yards and a score with his legs. He turned the field goal drives from week 2 into touchdowns in week 3, and he’s now gone two straight games with a score on every single drive (excluding kneel down drives). Arizona’s defense has done a nice job against veterans Matt Stafford and Jared Goff in the last 2 weeks, but Daniels is playing efficient football and should be treated as a top-8 QB option against the Cardinals.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): Harrison is a top-5 wide receiver play this week against the awful Commanders secondary. Marv has been at a 30% or better target share in each of the last 2 weeks, and that could creep even higher this week if Trey McBride is out. Every WR1 who has faced the Commanders this year has put up at least 23 PPR points.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Dal.): I wasn’t surprised when Nabers shredded the Commanders’ secondary in week 2. I was at least a little surprised when he did the same to the talented Browns’ secondary in week 3, posting his second consecutive top-4 PPR finish. The Cowboys have allowed just the 10^th-fewest WR points per game so far, but Nabers is an auto-start WR1 until he gives us a reason to think otherwise.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Don’t be alarmed by Bowers’ underwhelming performance in week 3. It’s a little concerning that he logged his lowest route participation rate of the season, but he should remain a focal point of the offense going forward. His 7.1 PPR points for the week were less than 2 points short of a top-10 finish, and still higher than the averages we’ve seen this year for Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Sam LaPorta. Bowers remains a locked-in top-10 TE play going forward.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): It didn’t translate into a victory, but Caleb Williams posted his best day yet as a passer in week 3, racking up 363 yards and 2 TDs in Indy. He also threw 2 interceptions, and his comeback efforts fell short, but the QB13 finish for the week was promising. This week he faces a Rams’ defense that ranks 31^st in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game. We saw last week that Caleb can rack up stats against a lackluster pass defense, and he gets a chance to do it again this week. I’d treat him as a clear starter in 2-QB and superflex formats and would be comfortable starting him in 1-QB formats if you don’t feel great about your starting option this week.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 4: @ LAC): Don’t be alarmed by the news that Kareem Hunt will be active in week 4. He takes the roster spot of Keaontay Ingram, who played zero snaps last week. He could mix in for a few plays and his role may grow in the coming weeks, but this should remain Steele’s backfield for now. The backfield split played out pretty much as I expected it to in week 3, with Steele leading the way and playing the bulk of the early down and short down & distance snaps, and Samaje Perine playing most of the 2-minute and long down & distance snaps. I expect a similar breakdown this week, but with Kansas City favored by 7.5-points, there should be plenty of opportunities for Steele to run the ball. The Chargers have been strong against the run so far, ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, but Steele is going to get enough volume that he should be a viable RB2 this week. I like him better in half and non-PPR formats than I do in full PPR.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Den.): As I mentioned in this article last week, Allen’s week 2 breakout game wasn’t a fluke. The usage was for real. After seeing 11 opportunities in week 2, Allen saw 14 of them in week 3 and finished as a top-30 back again. Breece Hall is still the unquestioned leader of this backfield, but Allen should get enough work against a middling Denver run defense that he’s a reasonable RB3/flex option this week, and he’s going to be a valuable bye week fill-in in the coming weeks. The Broncos have allowed 2 backs to finish in the top-36 PPR backs for the week in each of their 3 games this season.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): Odunze benefitted from Caleb’s breakout passing performance last week with a breakout performance of his own. The Bears finally used Rome as a key cog in their passing game – he earned a 24% target share and huge 49% air yardage share against the Colts and finished as the WR7 for the week with a 6-112-1 line – and he should be in line for another strong day this week against a bad Rams’ defense. The Rams have allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game, and Odunze should be treated as a fringe WR2 in the plus matchup. Two caveats I want to mention here though…keep an eye on Keenan Allen’s injury report. Odunze should be downgraded to a fringe WR3 if Allen is able to play. And keep an eye on the weather report. September in Chicago can be wet and windy, and it looks like there’s a chance of a rainy Sunday as of now (Wednesday).

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 4: @ Hou.): Through 3 games this season, Thomas has finished as a top-40 PPR WR three times, and I think there’s a strong chance he makes it 4-for-4 this week. The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog this week and will likely be throwing a bunch, and they’ve made a point to get the ball to Thomas on deep balls and off play action. The Texans have allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game and looked vulnerable downfield in week 1 when they allowed 3 completions of 50+ yards to the Colts. Thomas should be involved enough to compile his way to a fringe WR3 day even if he doesn’t catch a long ball, but you’ll be kicking yourself if he’s sitting on your bench and that long ball does connect.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. KC): The final result in week 3 didn’t look great for McConkey – he posted 3-44 on 6 targets against the Steelers – but he set season-highs with an 88% route participation rate and 30% target share. He’s quickly becoming a trusted weapon in this offense, and that could lead to a nice week in a game where the Chargers will likely have to throw more than they have all year. LA has averaged just 22 pass attempts per game while largely playing from the lead, but they’re 7.5-point underdogs to KC this week, and will likely have to throw 30+ times, no matter who is at QB. I expect Justin Herbert to be good to go, but if he’s not and it’s Taylor Heinicke instead, I still like McConkey’s chances at 7+ targets against a Chiefs defense that ranks just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA. Ladd should be a passable PPR WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): At this point, you’re probably looking at me a little sideways for telling you I’d lean toward starting Caleb Williams and sitting Nix when Nix hasn’t been outscored by Williams yet this season, but I stand by it. Nix has been getting by with passing volume and rushing production, but his yards per attempt sit at a dismal 5.3, he’s yet to throw a touchdown pass, and he faces a menacing Jets’ defense that has allowed just 1 QB touchdown of any kind all season. The Jets have allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game through 3 weeks. I’d treat Nix as a low-end QB2 for week 4.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): Irving has been a popular waiver wire pickup this week after he posted a top-20 finish last week and Head Coach Todd Bowles announced after the game that he’s earned more work going forward, but I think that hype is a little premature. There’s no question Irving has been Tampa’s most efficient back, averaging 6.2 yards per carry to Rachaad White’s 2.1, but White still played more than twice as many snaps as Irving last week, and Bowles when given the opportunity denied that Irving had moved ahead of White on the depth chart. This may be closer to a 50-50 split going forward, but the Bucs still love White on passing downs and in the red zone. The Eagles have been a middling run defense, ranking 16^th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve yet to allow a running back TD all year. If that continues this week, Irving likely winds up a lackluster RB3/RB4 for the week.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Week 1 with Andy Dalton under center for the Panthers was a smashing success with Dalton piling up 319 yards and 3 TDs en route to a blowout win over the Raiders. Unfortunately for Legette, he didn’t get to join in on the fun much with just an 8% target share and 51% route participation rate. Adam Thielen was placed on IR this week, so Legette should see a jump in playing time, but it’s murky how much production that will lead to. Legette has been playing behind Jonathan Mingo through the first 3 weeks, and in Dalton’s first start, Diontae Johnson was a target hog. There’s plenty of opportunity for passing production here – the Bengals rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA – but Legette is likely no higher than 3^rd in the pecking order. I’d view him as a fringe WR4 with upside, but he is worth a stash if he’s available in your league with bye weeks coming up and Adam Thielen out for a month.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 4: @ LAC): Worthy’s route participation rate has been around 70% or higher in all 3 games this season, but he’s averaging just 5 opportunities per game (targets + rush attempts combined). He has yet to log more than 2 catches in a game this year and he faces a Charger defense that has allowed the 7^th-fewest WR points per game. You’re betting on a big play or two if you decide to start him. His basic function in this offense has been to run deep routes to clear out coverage to get Rashee Rice open.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 4: @ Bal.): Coleman salvaged his week 3 performance by finding the end zone, but he saw a season-low 32% route participation rate and was targeted just once in a game where the Bills threw the ball all over the Jaguars. The fact that his role has been shrinking as the Bills have hit their offensive stride doesn’t make me feel great about plugging him in this week, even against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): You do not want to chase the RB3 in an offense quarterbacked by either Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley. The Dolphins will probably be without Skylar Thompson in week 4, leaving Boyle and Huntley as the fill-in options. It remains to be seen if Raheem Mostert will be back for this game, but Wright will still fight for backup snaps with Jeff Wilson Jr. if Mostert remains out. The Titans have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game so far, but Wright will likely only see a few touches and the Dolphins’ offense figures to struggle due to their QB situation. They have an implied point total of just 18.25 points.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 4: @ Bal.): Davis has been one of the more involved backup rookie running backs this season, tallying 18 touches in the last two weeks, but 14 of those 18 touches have come with the Bills leading by more than 2 touchdowns. This week’s contest, where the Bills are 2.5-point underdogs in Baltimore, figures to be much tighter than the last two. The Ravens have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game, and I wouldn’t expect more than just a few touches for Davis unless the game script is drastically different than Vegas expects.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): Benson tallied 11 carries in garbage time in week 2 but was back to his usual limited opportunities in week 3 in a much more competitive game with the Lions. Benson played just 2 snaps while fellow backup Emari Demercado played 11.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 4: @ Ari.): McCaffrey made a couple nice plays in week 3, but he’s also slipped to 3^rd on the depth chart as Noah Brown has worked his way into the WR2 role behind Terry McLaurin. Luke put up 3-44 on 3 targets Monday night and nearly found his way into the end zone, but his route participation rate was down to just 35%. It’s possible he will see a couple extra short targets this week with Austin Ekeler out after suffering a concussion Monday, but it’s hard to trust a player who needs volume to produce when he’s only on the field a third of the time.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 4: @ NYJ): Vele still has some PPR upside if he’s able to return this week, but it’s hard to envision him slipping seamlessly back into the same role he played in week 1 after missing the last two contests. The Jets have been vulnerable in the slot, allowing strong games to Jauan Jennings (5-64 on 5 targets) and Pop Douglas (7-69 on 9 targets), but Lil’Jordan Humphrey has established himself in that role over the last two weeks, and I don’t expect Vele to take over completely in his first game back. Vele’s upside comes from being peppered with short targets, so any threat to his snap volume is a threat to his fantasy outlook.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 4: @ Chi.): I had hope for Whittington with Kupp and Nacua both on IR, but the re-emergence of Tutu Atwell in this passing game has pushed Whittington down to WR4, and there’s just not enough work for him in that role to be a viable fantasy starter. He tallied 3 catches and 28 yards last week on 3 targets but was in a route on just 34% of the team’s dropbacks. If that workload repeats itself this week against the Bears, who allow the 6^th-fewest WR points per game, I’d expect an even lower output than we got last week.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): McMillan continues to run a ton of routes (80% route participation rate last week), but the routes just haven’t been converting to targets. He’s been targeted just 6 times in 3 games, and while there’s potential upside against the Eagles, who have allowed the 4^th-most WR points per game, it’s impossible to bank on a breakout game with the low target volume McMillan has been seeing.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 4: @ SF): Polk’s playing time is headed in the wrong direction as Demario Douglas and KJ Osborn have emerged as the top 2 receivers in this offense. Polk was down to just a 43% route participation rate in week 3 and hasn’t yet earned more than 3 targets in a game.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Pit.): The return of Josh Downs was a bigger problem for Mitchell than I expected, with Downs stepping into a full-time role immediately. Adonai was limited to just a 9% route participation rate in week 3. He’s unplayable until further notice.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 4: @ Ind.): Wilson was held out again in week 3, delaying what I expect will be a multi-week ramp up to a full-time role for the rookie. It doesn’t help Wilson that Calvin Austin played well last week, but Van Jefferson has been mostly a non-factor for the Steelers. There is still room for Wilson to climb this depth chart, but the low team passing volume will cap his ceiling in 2024.

TE Tip Reiman, ARI (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): Trey McBride left last Sunday’s contest with a concussion, leaving a tight end void for the Cardinals if he’s unable to get cleared ahead of this week. Reiman is not the player to target if you’re looking to capitalize here. It’s Elijah Higgins who has served as the TE2 in this offense while Reiman has failed to garner a single target on 17 routes this season Reiman could play more snaps than Higgins this week, but I’d expect the converted WR Higgins to be the one that’s more involved as a receiver. The Cardinals have run a lot of multiple-TE sets this year, but I’d expect more 11 personnel in week 4 against a Washington defense that gets shredded by WRs but allows the 6^th-fewest TE points per game. Reiman could tally his first career catch, but I’d look elsewhere if you’re searching for a desperation tight end this week.

Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): I mention Brooks just in case he’s still sitting on your league’s waiver wire. He’s on the PUP list, so he’s ineligible to return until at least week 5, but Pathers’ HC Dave Canales says he’s in the final stages of his recovery, and he could quickly ascend to the top of the Carolina running back depth chart once he’s healthy. He’s worth a stash if you’re struggling at RB and he’s available.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 4: @ Car.): All has quietly finished as a top-20 PPR TE in back-to-back weeks and is looking like he may have a bright future in Cincinnati. His playing time remains limited – he’s behind Mike Gesicki and was in a route on just 24% of the team dropbacks last Monday – but the Bengals have looked to get him the ball when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on 32% of his routes run in the last 2 games, and he’s caught all 8 targets that have come his way. He’s worth a stash in dynasty leagues and is a sneaky anytime TD bet this week. The Panthers are the only defense that has allowed multiple tight end touchdowns in the first 3 weeks.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an eventful first two weeks. If your fantasy squad hasn’t been bitten by the injury bug yet, count yourself lucky. The list of fantasy starters who have missed and will miss time is lengthy – Tua Tagovailoa, Christian McCaffrey, Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon, AJ Brown, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Keenan Allen, Evan Engram, Jake Ferguson – for some teams it’s been a bloodbath, but injuries to proven fantasy studs usually means rookies you wouldn’t have dared to start before are now in consideration. I’m here to help you parse through the rookies if any of them are on your radar as injury fill-ins.

Week 2 saw breakout games for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers continuing to rack up targets for Las Vegas, Braelon Allen finding the end zone twice, and Caleb Williams and Bo Nix taking baby steps forward. There’s a lot more in store for week 3, so let’s not waste any more time recapping what you already know.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s tackle week 3…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cin.): Daniels has yet to find the end zone through the air this season, and it hurt his fantasy output last week when he finished as just the QB18, but what we’ve seen across the NFL has me even more convinced that Daniels should be treated as a weekly top-12 QB. Passing production is down league-wide, Daniels’ rushing production gives him a nice floor each week, and he’s executing well within what he’s being asked to do in this offense. Through 2 weeks, the rookie has completed 75.5% of his passes and hasn’t turned the ball over. If he keeps doing that, we’re going to see better passing days in the future. This week he faces a Cincinnati defense that has allowed just 136 passing yards per game, but they also rank just 15^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA stat and have given up 32 and 29 rushing yards to Jacoby Brissett and Patrick Mahomes, respectively. If those guys are running for 30-ish yards, Daniels has a decent chance to break 60 on the ground. You’re not going to find many QBs with more upside than Daniels offers on a week-to-week basis.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): I hope all of you Marvin Harrison Jr. drafters out there didn’t panic and bench the rookie after his week 1 dud, because week 2 was sensational. Harrison put up over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns in just the 1^st quarter against the Rams last Sunday en route to an overall WR1 finish for the week, and it should be just the beginning of a fantastic career. He gets a favorable matchup in week 3 against a Detroit defense that has given up a 20-point WR fantasy game in each of the last two weeks. I wouldn’t count on quite the same kind of blowup game this week, but Harrison should have a WR2 floor against a young Detroit secondary that’s still finding it’s way.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Nabers wasn’t quite as explosive as Marv in week 2, but he wasn’t far behind, finishing the week as the WR3 after putting up 10-127-1 on an absurd 18 targets (a 67% target share!!). After facing the Commanders’ barely there secondary, he’s going to find the sledding to be much tougher against the Browns in week 3. You still can’t sit him given the kind of volume he’s seeing, but I’d expect this week’s performance to be closer to his week 1 output than his week 2 output. Cleveland ranked 2^nd in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 4^th-fewest WR points per game. They’ve been a little worse than that through 2 weeks this year (10^th in DVOA, 15^th-most WR points allowed), but Daniel Jones isn’t on the same level as the two QBs the Browns have faced this year (Dak & Trevor Lawrence). Nabers should be treated like a solid WR3 this week with upside for more.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): It’s taken just two weeks into his rookie season for Bowers to reach auto-start status. The guys we expected to be the studs of the position – Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta, Kincaid – have all underwhelmed through two weeks. Meanwhile, Bowers has been a focal point of the Raiders’ offense, racking up 16 targets so far in an offense that should continue to lean pass-heavy. This week he gets to face a Carolina defense that coughed up TDs to Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson in week 1 and should continue to struggle on the defensive side of the ball even if Andy Dalton improves their offense. Bowers has posted back-to-back top-5 finishes to start his career, and should be treated as a safe bet to finish highly again this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ind.): This is only applicable to superflex leagues, but I like Caleb Williams to post his best game as a pro this week against a terrible Colts’ defense that is without their best pass rusher (DeForest Buckner). If you’ve been looking at box scores, you know the Colts have coughed up over 150 rushing yards to both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs this year, but did you know they also rank just 29^th in pass defense DVOA for the season? This is a defense that can be beat in multiple ways, and I don’t expect the Bears’ RBs who have totaled just 85 rushing yards in 2 games to duplicate the rushing efforts we saw from Mixon and Jacobs, so Caleb will have chances to pick on them through the air. Williams looked sharp on the opening drive last week before the Texans started blitzing, and I expect the Bears to have better answers for the blitz in this one against an Indy team that has a lot less pass rushing firepower than the Texans. I think Caleb has a real chance to post 250 and 2 scores in this game.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): With Rachaad White suffering a groin injury last week in Detroit, Irving could be in line for a bigger workload in a game where the Bucs are a touchdown favorite against a Denver team that has allowed the 11^th-most RB points so far. If White misses this game, or you get a sense that he’s going to see a limited workload as a result of his injury, Irving has potential to finish as a top-24 back in a favorable matchup. Bucky has handled just over a third of the running back snaps and carries so far this year, and if you throw away Irving’s 31-yard TD run in week 1, he’s STILL averaging a yard and a half more per carry than Rachaad this season. If White is going to be less than 100% this week, the Bucs should give the rookie a real chance to lead the way. If White is going to be limited, I’d treat Bucky as an RB3 with upside. If White’s out, Bucky is an RB2.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 3: @Pit.): McConkey’s week 2 output was less than stellar in a game against Carolina where the Chargers just didn’t have to throw much. Things get a little tougher this week with LA a 2-point underdog to the Steelers, so game script should be much more neutral, and McConkey should be able to avoid Joey Porter Jr.’s coverage in the slot. Quentin Johnston should draw Porter’s coverage instead. Porter has mostly erased the opposing team’s WR1 in the first 2 weeks (Drake London: 2-15-0 on 3 targets, Courtland Sutton: 1-26-0 on 4 targets), but slot receivers have had a lot more success against Pittsburgh. Ray Ray McCloud put up 4-52-0 on 7 targets in week 1, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey tallied 4-50-0 on 5 targets in week 2. McConkey is a better receiver and has a better QB than either of those two slot guys. I’d treat 4-50 as the floor here, which makes McConkey a viable WR3 this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ind.): If you read what I wrote about Caleb Williams above, you know I like the Bears to have as much success throwing the ball as they have all year, and that yardage has to go to someone. Keenan Allen is expected to be sidelined again this week, so Odunze and DJ Moore should be on the field for nearly every play. The Colts’ secondary has been in shambles, allowing a 78.3% completion rate and nearly 10 yards per completion. This is setting up as a spot where Odunze could have a breakout game, but part of me worries about whether OC Shane Waldron will let it happen. With Keenan Allen out last week, it was a perfect opportunity for the Bears to showcase Odunze, and instead they were scheming up looks for Gerald Everett and DeAndre Carter. Waldron was very slow to trust 1^st-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year too, so I’m hoping this isn’t a trend. I still like Odunze as an upside WR4 this week if you can stomach plugging in a player with less than 4 PPR points per game in the first 2 weeks.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 3: @TB): If you’re in a pinch this week in a superflex league, you can probably get away with starting Nix, but I’d view him as an option at the tail end of the top 24 QBs for the week. Volume has been the best signal for Nix’s fantasy value through 2 games – he’s attempted 38.5 passes per game - but his paltry 5 yards per attempt means that volume isn’t even adding up to 200 passing yards on average. At a quick glance, this looks like a great matchup on paper. The Bucs have allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game so far, but 53.4% of the fantasy points they’ve allowed this year were rushing points for Jayden Daniels in week 1. Neither QB they’ve faced has thrown a touchdown or reached 11 points of passing production against them. The Bucs rank 13^th in pass defense DVOA and should continue to make things tough on Nix through the air. Nix’s rushing upside and passing volume provide some hope for him to produce a quality QB2 performance where you could plug him in if you need to, but I would temper expectations.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 3: @Atl.): The Chiefs learned this week that they’ll be without RB Isiah Pacheco for possibly up to 2 months, leaving a huge void in their offense. They went out and signed Kareem Hunt on Tuesday, but he’ll likely take a couple weeks to get ramped up, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still on IR, leaving the backfield to Steele and Samaje Perine in the meantime. There’s been a lot of speculation about what this backfield will look like without Pacheco, and I think it’ll be messy once Hunt is ramped up and CEH returns, but it should be fairly predictable until then. Steele has out-snapped Perine 6 to 0 in short down & distance situations, and Perine has out-snapped Steele 9 to 1 in long down & distance situations. The only long down & distance snap Steele played was one where he took a handoff up the middle to better position the Chiefs for their game-winning field goal last Sunday. We should see a standard division of duties in this backfield where Steele handles the bulk of the early down work, and Perine handles most of the passing down work. There will be some slight deviation from that to avoid being too predictable, but by and large, that’s how it should go. Being the lead rusher for the Chiefs always carries some TD upside with it, but I wouldn’t expect a huge yardage total against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 6^th-fewest RB points per game this year and 5^th-fewest last year. Treat Steele like a TD-dependent flex option.

WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Thomas has rewarded fantasy managers who were willing to roll the dice on him the first two weeks, logging WR18 and WR27 finishes in the first two games despite tallying just 4 targets in each. If you want to roll those dice again, I wouldn’t fault you. You only need BTJ and T-Law to connect once or twice to give you a useful fantasy day with the downfield targets he’s been seeing, but this Buffalo defense has made life tough on top receivers so far. They held Marvin Harrison Jr. to 1 catch for 4 yards in the opener and had mostly contained Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle last week even before Tua exited the game with a concussion. Neither receiver made it to 50 scrimmage yards. I don’t feel great about the prospects of Thomas connecting on more big plays in this one.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Jax.): Coleman was frustratingly targeted just once in the Bills’ win last week over the Dolphins, but there are some reasons for optimism here. He led the Bills’ receivers for the second straight week with a 90% route participation rate, and his low target total was as much a result of the team’s low passing volume as anything. Josh Allen attempted just 19 passes in a game that wasn’t competitive early and got less competitive when Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion. The Bills are solid 5 and a half-point favorites this week, but I don’t see this game being quite as non-competitive. The Jaguars’ pass defense has had a clear weakness through the first two weeks of the season – the right side of the field. They rank 28^th in the league in pass defense DVOA on throws to the right, with both their right CB Montaric Brown and his safety help over the top struggling. Coleman has spent about half of his snaps this year lined up to the right, so he should see plenty of opportunities against that weak right side. The Bills passing game is going to spread the ball around quite a bit, but Coleman should get enough work to be worth consideration as a WR4. The only reason I’m hesitant to recommend starting him is the floor we saw last week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 3: @Atl.): Cam Taylor-Britt wrote a check with his mouth last week that I did not expect him to cash on Sunday, but he more than backed up his Xavier Worthy trash talk, holding the rookie to just 2 catches for 17 yards and making an incredible one-handed interception in the process. Worthy was supposed to be the burner that gave Patrick Mahomes the ability to push the ball down the field again and beat 2-deep shell coverages, but two weeks in, Mahomes is doing more dinking and dunking than ever. Mahomes’ 5.1-yard aDOT this year would be easily the lowest of his career. You already know Worthy isn’t going to be a high-volume target for Mahomes – he’s totaled just 7 targets and 2 rushing attempts through 2 games – so you need splash plays and TDs to get value from him in your lineup. Mahomes’ conservative approach, and safety Jessie Bates looming over the top in coverage have me thinking this won’t be a great week to trust Worthy to make a big play. The Falcons have allowed just 2 completions of 20+ yards through 2 weeks.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 3: @LV): The Panthers have made the move to bench Bryce Young this week in an effort to try and fix their broken passing game that totaled just 255 yards in the first two weeks (35 of which have gone to Legette). Dalton is at least a competent NFL QB, but he’ll be dealing with the same scheme, same o-line, and same pass catchers that Bryce had to work with. I do expect some modest immediate improvement this week, especially facing off against a Vegas defense that ranks 23^rd in pass defense DVOA, but if you’re willing to take a chance on Dalton feeding Legette this week given what we’ve seen from the Panthers in the first two weeks, you’re braver than I am.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Mitchell’s usage through two weeks has teased the upside he has in this offense with cannon-armed Anthony Richardson at the helm, but it just hasn’t turned into production so far. He’s earned 9 targets that have traveled on average more than 18 yards down the field, but he’s pulled in just 2 of them for 32 yards. Meanwhile, fellow deep threat Alec Pierce has pulled in 8 of 10 targets for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns. All signs point to Josh Downs being active this week. Michael Pittman isn’t going to be the one to lose playing time to get Downs on the field, so that means one of Pierce or Mitchell will, and given how the first two weeks have gone, I’d expect it to be Mitchell. He’ll likely still be involved and could see a couple targets, but his route participation rate should drop below 50% after being right around 70% for the first two weeks. His only path to fantasy relevance this week is to score a TD, preferably a long one.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. Jax.): The box score will show you that Davis touched the ball 10 times in week 2, and that might get you excited about his growing role, but I regret to inform you that not much changed from week 1. Davis is still splitting backup work with Ty Johnson, and 6 of his 10 touches came in the 4^th quarter with the Bills up by 3 touchdowns. The value proposition with Davis was that he would get valuable goal line carries, but through two weeks, the Bills have run 7 offensive snaps inside the 10-yard line – 1 incomplete pass to Keon Coleman, 3 rushes by James Cook, and 3 rushes by Josh Allen. There’s not a lot of fantasy upside in getting a handful of rushing attempts with no goal line work even in a good matchup. The Jaguars have been a middling RB defense so far, allowing the 14^th-most points per game to the position.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Wright got his first taste of NFL action last week, and it didn’t go according to plan. He totaled just 4 yards on 5 carries with Raheem Mostert sidelined, and the Dolphins lost their QB in the process. Mostert is practicing this week as of Wednesday, so it’s possible Wright will go back to being inactive on gameday, but if he’s active, I wouldn’t expect much more opportunity than he got last week. If the Dolphins want to be competitive without Tua, they’re going to have to lean on De’Von Achane as much as possible, so I wouldn’t expect more than a handful of touches for Wright against what has been a much-improved Seattle defense. There’s always a chance Wright breaks a big play, but the floor here is zero points.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Det.): Benson got a little extra work in week 2 with the Cardinals surprisingly blowing out the Rams, but he was largely ineffective with the extra carries, putting up just 10 rushing yards on 11 totes. He should be back to his normal workload this week – just a handful of touches – against a Detroit defense that ranks 9^th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 3: @LAR): The 49ers got some bad news this week that WR Deebo Samuel is dealing with a calf strain and is likely to miss a couple weeks, but that news could provide a small bump to Guerendo’s playing time while he’s out. The 49ers use Deebo as the change of pace back more often when Christian McCaffrey is out, so Deebo’s absence means they’ll be forced to use Guerendo when Jordan Mason needs a breather. I don’t foresee a ton of playing time this for Isaac unless the game gets out of hand – he was out-snapped by Mason last weekend 24 to 1 – but I’d be surprised if he’s limited to just a snap or two again.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Tracy’s snap share stayed stable from week 1 to week 2, checking in right around 20% again last Sunday, but he was limited to just 1 touch against the Commanders after handling 2 carries and 2 targets in the opener. He’s not going to help your fantasy squad much with fewer than 5 touches.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 3: vs. SF): On paper, it looks like Corum saw a huge leap in playing time last weekend, carrying 8 times for 28 yards after not playing a single snap in week 1. If you look closer, you’ll see that all 8 of those carries came in the 4^th quarter with the Rams trailing 41-10. He didn’t play a snap before LA was in a 31-point hole. The uptick in touches isn’t a change in Corum’s role. Keep him parked on the bench.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 3: @Ten.): Lloyd returned in week 2 from a preseason hamstring injury that sidelined him for the opener, but he left the game with a new ankle injury that could sideline him for week 3. He’s already sharing backup work with Emmanuel Wilson behind bell-cow back Josh Jacobs. The new injury just further cements that he shouldn’t be in lineup consideration this week.

Update: Lloyd was placed on IR and is out until at least week 7

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 3: @NYJ): Don’t be fooled by the TD Polk scored last week. He still was targeted just 3 times and is an ancillary weapon in a low volume passing attack. The Pats face the Jets this week, who have been off to a sluggish start on defense but ranked 3^rd in pass defense DVOA a season ago. I wouldn’t count on Polk finding the end zone again this week.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cin.): McCaffrey continued to operate as one of the Commanders’ clear top-3 WRs last weekend in terms of playing time, but figuring out who gets the opportunities in this offense after Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz looks like it’ll be a weekly crapshoot. McCaffrey was targeted just once last Sunday while Dyami Brown, Olamide Zacchaeus, and Noah Brown were each targeted 3 times. When the ceiling case for McCaffrey is likely 4-5 targets, you should be looking elsewhere for your starting WRs. He doesn’t get the kind of deep targets that can result in strong production with that volume.

WR Jacob Cowing, SF (Wk. 3: @LAR): Deebo Samuel is expected to miss a couple games with a calf strain, but I wouldn’t expect Cowing to see much of an increase in usage as a result. Ronnie Bell and Chris Conley have both been running ahead of Cowing as the team’s WR4 and 5, and I’d expect that duo to play the majority of the WR3 snaps this week, though I expect we’ll see fewer 3-WR sets and more Kyle Juszczyk than normal while Deebo is out.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. LAC): Wilson was inactive again in week 2 as he works his way back from injury. He missed significant practice time in the latter weeks of training camp prior to missing the last two weeks, so I’d expect there to be a ramp up period of at least a few weeks once he’s able to suit up before we’ll see him utilized in anything close to a full-time role. He could be active in week 3, but he shouldn’t be in your lineup.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. NE): Corley ran his first route of the season last week and caught a pass for 4 yards on that play. He did not run a 2^nd route. Malachi remains buried on the Jets’ depth chart for now.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): All posted a quietly positive game last week in his first extended NFL action, tallying 4 catches for 32 yards against the Chiefs, but it’s not production I would count on repeating itself in week 3. The Bengals made a point to avoid going after Kansas City’s stingy outside corners and attacked them with the tight end position after watching Isaiah Likely shred their secondary in week 1. Four different Cincy tight ends logged route participation rates of over 25% in week 2. In fact, All’s 27% rate was the lowest of the 4, and his 4 targets were just 4 of 16 total tight end targets for the Bengals on Sunday. This week’s opponent, the Commanders, are much more vulnerable at cornerback than KC. The Commanders have allowed just 1 catch for 5 yards to opposing tight ends through 2 weeks, while coughing up 18+ fantasy points to 3 different wide receivers in that span. This should be a big week for Ja’Marr Chase, and not for the Cincy tight ends.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 3: @Cle.): I was optimistic about Johnson after week one when he earned 4 targets and logged a 76% route participation rate, but the Giants made two changes in week two that make me much less bullish on Theo in the immediate future. The first is that they decided to keep their tight end in to block more often to help protect Daniel Jones. Johnson ran 38 routes in week 1 and logged just 8 pass blocking snaps. In week 2, those numbers were 16 routes and 12 pass blocking snaps. The second thing the Giants did was realize that they should be throwing to Malik Nabers as much as humanly possible. Nabers had a 67% target share in week 2. We won’t see that absurd number every week, but I expect the ball to go to Nabers often enough that there just isn’t enough leftover receiving work for Johnson to be a start-able fantasy tight end.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 3: @LV): The Panthers’ passing game could get a much-needed shot in the arm this week with the switch at QB to veteran Andy Dalton, but Tommy Tremble’s week 2 return from injury means Sanders probably won’t benefit much. Sanders did see his target total double from 1 in week 1 to 2 in week 2, but his playing time went in the opposite direction with Tremble active. Sanders’ route participation rate dropped from 69% to 51% while Tremble earned a 45% share and 4 targets against the Chargers. Anything’s possible if this passing game looks drastically different with Dalton, but I’d bet against Sanders, who has totaled just 12 yards on 42 routes run.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): Spann-Ford played ahead of Luke Schoonmaker in week 1, but that changed in week 2 with starting tight end Jake Ferguson sidelined. Both players logged uninspiring route totals, but Schoonmaker ran 15 routes to just 12 for Spann-Ford, and the 2^nd-year tight end out-targeted the rookie 6 to 1. Schoonmaker is the only Dallas tight end who should be in fantasy consideration if Ferguson is out again.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cin.): Like it or not, this is Zach Ertz’s job until further notice. Sinnott has run just 3 target-less routes in each of his first two NFL games.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. NE): I know, this is probably a week late and going to feel like point chasing after Allen piled up 56 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs last Sunday, but I’m listing him here because I don’t think his usage was a fluke or was a result of Breece Hall being banged up. In week 1, we only saw Allen in garbage time vs the 49ers, but in week 2, he played a full drive in the 2^nd quarter and mixed in regularly in the 2^nd half in a game that never had a margin of more than 7 points, and he made the most of the opportunities. I’m not saying that Allen is going to usurp Breece Hall at any point this season, but rather that I think there could be room for both to be fantasy relevant. Nathaniel Hackett was the OC and Aaron Rodgers was the QB in Green Bay in 2021 and 2022, when Aaron Jones was finishing as a top-12 RB and teammate AJ Dillon was finishing in the top-30, and I think we could see something similar play out here with Allen as that RB2. I don’t love the matchup this week with New England boasting a solid defense so far (allowing the 11^th-fewest RB points per game), but Allen shouldn’t be sitting on waiver wires, and he’s likely going to be instrumental in getting through bye weeks for some teams, and he could have RB1 upside if anything happens to Breece.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): There haven’t been a ton of targets for McMillan through two weeks, but his targets have consistently been downfield, and he could see some extra looks come his way this week with Mike Evans likely to draw shadow coverage from Pat Surtain Jr. Surtain limited DK Metcalf to 3-29 on 4 targets in week 1, and George Pickens to 2-29 on 4 targets last week, and Baker Mayfield hasn’t been the type of QB to force the ball into coverage in his time in Tampa. That should mean Chris Godwin’s hot streak to start the year continues, but also that Jalen McMillan should set a new season-high in targets. McMillan leads the team in routes run and should tangle mostly with 2^nd-year pro Riley Moss, who has allowed 9 completions for 94 yards on 13 throws into his coverage. Those 9 completions account for 29% of all completions against the Broncos this season. If you’re in a bad spot at WR this week due to injuries, McMillan is a guy who isn’t projected to score a lot of points but is set up for a potentially strong week. 

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 3: @TB): In case you forgot about Vele, the rookie hauled in 8 receptions in week 1 before sitting in week 2 with a rib injury. He’s practicing in a limited capacity as of Wednesday, and his matchup this week with Tampa could be a decent one. The Bucs rank just 23^rd in pass defense DVOA the short passes, and if he’s active, Vele should once again feast on short throws in what has been a high-volume passing game (77 attempts through 2 weeks). I wouldn’t count on Vele breaking 50 yards, but he should dink and dunk his way to a respectable PPR game if you’re in a pinch.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 3: vs. SF): After significant injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the last two games, Whittington suddenly finds himself in a prominent role in an LA offense that still boasts Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. I wouldn’t plug him into lineups this week in a tough matchup with the 49ers. Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson are going to be the top 2 WRs in this offense for now, and Whittington will split WR3 snaps with Tutu Atwell until he separates from him, but we saw the Rams give Whittington volume in the preseason and they’ve tried to get him a couple manufactured touches in the regular season as well. There’s room for him to climb the depth chart if he makes the most of his opportunities, and he shouldn’t be sitting on dynasty waiver wires outside of the shallowest leagues.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): This is probably moot if Tee Higgins is able to return this week, but Burton has some sneaky potential in this matchup if Higgins is sidelined again. Burton is still just an ancillary role player in this offense (he ran just 8 routes last week), but he’s shown the ability to be a deep threat in college, in the preseason, and again last week when he caught a deep ball for 46 yards, and now he gets to face off with the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Commanders have given up 18+ points to 3 different receivers in the first two weeks of the season and have allowed 7 completions of 20+ yards. Ja’Marr Chase is probably going to post a blow-up game this week, but this is a spot where Burton could do some real damage on just 8-10 routes run if a couple deep balls connect.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! As usual, the opening week of the season was full of surprises and disappointments. It was a bad week to be a star tight end (the top 6 tight ends by ADP all failed to score more than 8 PPR points), it was a bad week to be a rookie running back (only two rookie backs played 10+ snaps), it was a bad week to be Marvin Harrison Jr. (1 catch for 4 yards), but it was a good week to be a kicker attempting long field goals (kickers league-wide made 21 out of 23 attempts from 50+ yards).

It was also a good week to be Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Daniels, Jalen McMillan, or Ladd McConkey, who all found the end zone. My biggest piece of advice after week 1 is to not overreact to surprising fantasy point totals. Focus on the player’s usage rather than how many points they scored because touchdowns can be fluky. A player like Alec Pierce isn’t going to score 2 long touchdowns every week on just 3 targets, so we shouldn’t overreact to his point total. Quality volume is the name of the game, and that’s the lens I’ll be using as we get into what to expect in week 2.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 2: vs NYG): Daniels’ passing performance was less than exciting if you started any of his pass catchers in week 1, but his usage was excellent if you started the rookie QB. He racked up 88 yards on 16 carries, including 8 designed rushing attempts, and found the end zone twice on the ground. Ladies & gentlemen, that’s over 20 fantasy points before you count any passing stats. Of course, he’s not going to run for 2 TDs every week, but his rushing production is going to give him a floor that puts him in the top-12 QBs more weeks than not. He should be treated as a QB1 every week, and especially this week against a bad Giants team that ranked 27^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA a season ago.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): One week into their NFL careers, Nabers is off to the best start of the big 3 WRs in the 2024 draft class. Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t set a high bar for him to clear after combining for just 15 yards last Sunday, but Nabers cleared it with ease, finishing with 5 catches for 66 yards on 7 targets, good for PPR WR32 for the week. He ran an absurd 50 routes, 10 more routes than any of his teammates, and although Wan’Dale Robinson led the team in targets, Nabers is the clear alpha WR1 on this team. An interesting tidbit about Nabers’ debut: He ran 7 routes on plays where he went in motion pre-snap and was targeted on 6 of those plays. He had just 1 target on the other 43 routes run. I’m sure it’s something the Giants are aware of and will look to do more of in week 2. The biggest plus for Nabers this week is that he gets to face off with arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL. Washington allowed the most WR points per game and ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA a year ago, and in week 1 this year they allowed the 2^nd-most WR points and ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA. This is a game where Nabers’ floor could be higher than his final line from last week. He did pop up on the injury report mid-week with a knee issue, so have a backup plan ready, but if Nabers is good to go, start him with confidence.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Week 1 for Harrison could only be labeled a massive disappointment. He earned just 3 targets in his debut despite leading the team with a 95% route participation rate, and he finished with just 1 catch for 4 yards. When asked about Marv’s lack of involvement, QB Kyler Murray said he trusts in OC Drew Petzing, and that it isn’t his job to force the ball to Harrison. That tells me that Harrison probably wasn’t the first read in many of the plays that Petzing called. I’d expect that to change a bit this week. The Cardinals didn’t draft Harrison where they did to not use him. Speaking of where Marv was drafted, you didn’t draft Harrison in the 2^nd round of your fantasy drafts to sit him on the bench. I know week 1 was painful, but I’d advise rolling with him again this week against a Rams’ defense that allowed the 7^th-most WR points in week 1. I understand if you’re not willing to do that, but the targets are going to come.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Worthy made a splashy debut last Thursday, finding the end zone twice and piling up 68 scrimmage yards on just 3 touches. The resulting top-10 finish for the week was great, but the underlying usage is what we were afraid of. Worthy’s long speed is going to be valuable to the Chiefs in opening up underneath routes for Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, but it probably won’t result in a ton of targets for the rookie himself, so he’ll need to keep making splash plays to help your fantasy team. I think he will keep it up for week 2 at least. The Bengals allowed the 2^nd-most completions of 20+ yards in the NFL last season, and corner Cam Taylor-Britt may have poked the bear this week when asked about Worthy, saying “He can run straight…He can’t do much else, so that’s about it.” That’s the kind of bulletin board material that often backfires on the person providing it. I like Worthy’s chances of making Taylor-Britt eat his words this week and hitting the boom side of his boom-or-bust profile.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia.): We entered week 1 not really knowing what to expect from the Buffalo receiver rotation, but coming out of week 1, it looks like Keon Coleman is the WR1. Coleman led the team with a 90% route participation rate (no other WR was above 70%), and he had a team-high 5 targets that he turned into 4 catches for 51 yards. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but week 2 could see a better performance against a Miami defense that allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game last year and struggles against Josh Allen. Since the start of the 2022 season, Josh Allen has played 40 games against teams that are not the Miami Dolphins (playoffs included). In those games, he’s thrown for 300+ yards 10 times, and 350+ yards twice. In that same time frame, he’s played the Dolphins 5 times. He’s topped 300 yards against them in all 5 and put up 350+ yards in 3 of them. I don’t necessarily expect quite that many passing yards this year with a whole new WR group, but this feels like a week where the passing game could boom, and Coleman could be a big beneficiary of that. I’d treat him as an upside WR3.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 2: @ Bal.): At first glance, Bowers’ final stat line of 6-58-0 doesn’t jump off the page at you, but with so many of the top tight ends underperforming in week 1, it was good for a top-5 finish for the week, and the underlying usage was phenomenal. Bowers was in a route on 78% of the team passing dropbacks, and he earned a team-high 7 targets against the Chargers. I mentioned last week that Bowers led Georgia in receiving every year he was there, and it looks like he’ll waste no time pushing for a similar role in the NFL. I don’t expect him to overtake Davante Adams and lead the team in targets, but he should be #2. The defensive matchup this week is a tough one. The Ravens ranked 1^st in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 9^th-fewest TE points per game. They had a hard time slowing Patrick Mahomes in week 1 but should fare better against Gardner Minshew. Even in this tough matchup though, I think Bowers is a top-10 TE play this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 2: @ Hou.): Caleb’s debut performance did not go according to plan. He missed some throws he should make; his vaunted receiving weapons didn’t help him out very much, he finished with a pathetic 3.2 yards per attempt, and to make matters worse, he lost Rome Odunze to injury in the process. The Bears’ defense managed to bail Williams out and help the team to a win, but Caleb needs to play better. I expect improvement this week against a Houston defense that allowed the 11^th-most QB points per game last season and had the 6^th-lowest pressure rate in the league last week, but without Odunze I have a hard time viewing Caleb as more than a lower-end QB2 in this one. On the plus side, there should be passing volume with the Bears nearly a touchdown underdog.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): Until a couple of 4^th quarter drives last Sunday, Nix was having an even worse week than Caleb. As I expected, he struggled with Mike McDonald’s complex coverage disguises and threw two costly interceptions. Bo managed to put together a solid TD drive in the final minutes to make the final score look close and finish as the QB16 for the week, but he had just 3.3 fantasy points entering that final drive. There are things to like here – Bo showed that he can provide rushing production even though the Broncos aren’t calling designed runs for him (5-35-1 on the ground on 5 scrambles), and Sean Payton was willing to let him drop back and throw more than 40 times in his first game. Unfortunately, his matchup isn’t any easier this week. The Steelers dominated Kirk Cousins in week 1, generating the 8^th-highest pressure rate in the league and holding Cousins to the 5^th-lowest QB score of the week. If Nix doesn’t find the end zone with his legs again, he’ll have a hard time matching his week 1 output. I’d treat Nix as a fringe QB2 this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 2: @ Det.): Irving was the most impressive of the rookie backs last week, putting up 76 scrimmage yards on 11 touches while most other rookie backs didn’t play even 10 snaps. 8 of those 11 touches occurred in the second half while the Bucs were up by multiple scores. I wouldn’t count on that happening again this week against Detroit, where the Bucs are a touchdown underdog. Starter Rachaad White has been wildly inefficient as a runner (3.6 ypc last season, 2.1 ypc in week 1), leading to speculation that Irving may eventually steal some of his workload, but the Bucs love what White provides in the passing game. Rachaad was 2^nd on the team in the opener with 6 catches and 75 receiving yards. I don’t expect a drastic shift in rushing workload in week 2, and the Lions are a stout run defense anyway. They ranked first in run defense DVOA a year ago and allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game, and they limited the Rams’ backfield to the 7^th-fewest fantasy points in week 1. Don’t expect a repeat of week 1 for Bucky in this matchup. It’ll be a win if he breaks 30 scrimmage yards.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 2: @ Car.): McConkey’s usage looked pretty much how we expected it to in week 1. He was 3^rd among Chargers’ WRs in route participation rate, playing mostly in the slot, but he was their most-targeted pass catcher, putting up 5-39-1 on 7 targets. The problem for McConkey is his 5.3-yard aDOT. With that kind of usage in the short part of the field, he’s going to either need volume or a touchdown to turn in a quality fantasy day, and I’m just not convinced they’ll need to throw much to beat the Panthers. The Chargers want to run the ball as much as they can, and the Panthers are going to have a hard time giving them compelling reasons to throw it. If you trust the Panthers to keep this game competitive, McConkey is a reasonable WR3 option. If you expect a blowout, you’re praying for a touchdown if you start him.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 2: vs. Cle.): Thomas finished his debut as a top-20 PPR WR, but I’m not counting on a repeat performance in week 2. Thomas’ fantasy day was buoyed by a touchdown catch, but my concern for the Jaguars’ pass catchers is that the team seems to be more run-heavy this year than in previous years. They ran 50 offensive plays in week 1, and 26 of them were rushing plays, including 12 for Tank Bigsby. That run-heavy approach could’ve been matchup related – the Jaguars were up by 2 scores early in the game, and running the ball limits how many possessions the explosive Dolphins’ offense gets – but it’s still a little troubling. T-Law didn’t throw fewer than 29 pass attempts in any game last season, so 21 in the opener isn’t a great sign. Thomas’ 4 targets last Sunday actually tied for the team lead. The Browns were an elite pass defense last year, so I tend to trust that they’re better than they looked in week 1 against Dallas. I’d err on the side of sitting Thomas this week in a bad matchup so we can get a better idea of whether the Jags’ low passing volume is a trend or just a week 1 fluke.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 2: @ GB): I’m not sure any single player left more fantasy points on the field in week 1 than Mitchell. The rookie pulled in just 1 catch for 2 yards on 5 targets in the opener, but he and Anthony Richardson just missed connecting on deep targets that could’ve gone for TDs not once, not twice, but thrice. It’s a great sign that Richardson likes to push the ball down the field, but it’s not a great sign that Richardson has had more success doing it when he’s throwing to Alec Pierce rather than Mitchell. Josh Downs returned to practice Wednesday, and if he’s active this week, Mitchell will likely be relegated to competing for WR3 snaps with Pierce. Given how Pierce performed in week 1, I’m not sure Mitchell would get any more than a 50/50 split, if he even gets that. Green Bay isn’t a great pass defense, ranking 26^th in pass defense DVOA a year ago, but they didn’t let opponents take the top off. The Packers allowed just 3 completions of 40+ yards all season. If Downs plays, I’d keep Mitchell parked on the bench. If Downs sits, Mitchell becomes a volatile WR4 option.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 2: @ Det.): McMillan pulled in just 1 of his 3 targets last week, but he made it count, securing a 32-yard touchdown to start the 4^th quarter. His other two targets both also looked like they might go for touchdowns if Jalen had managed to haul them in, so he narrowly missed out on a massive day. It was promising to see he’ll be used as a full-time receiver in this offense (he was in a route on 88% of the team passing dropbacks), but 3 targets on 30 routes and a high aDOT screams boom-or-bust. He’ll be a low-volume WR3 behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and while that resulted in a nice TD catch in week one against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL, it’s not guaranteed to happen again in Detroit. The Lions allowed a league-high 69 completions of 20+ yards last season, but they also went out and signed Carlton Davis and drafted Terrion Arnold to improve their starting CB spots. Cooper Kupp still had a field day against them last week, but they’re certainly better than the Commanders. McMillan is a boom-or-bust WR4 option in Detroit on Sunday.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Legette’s usage in week 1 was promising. His 59% route participation was lower than you’d like for a fantasy starter, but he led the team in catches and targets, and saw an impressive 37% share of the air yards for the week. All of that usage only led to 7.5 PPR points though, and the Chargers look like a much-improved defense in 2024 under Jim Harbaugh and Jesse Minter. The Chargers ranked 27^th in pass defense DVOA a season ago, and ranked 8^th in week 1. Of course, that could be because they faced Gardner Minshew, but I’m not sure Bryce Young is a tougher QB to defend at this point. Legette is probably in line for similar usage this week, which makes him a WR4/5 option.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): McCaffrey was 2^nd on the Commanders behind Terry McLaurin in week 1 with a 71% route participation rate, but his upside is capped by Jayden Daniels’ unwillingness to push the ball down the field (could be a scheme issue rather than QB issue), and his penchant for scrambling. Daniels dropped back 34 times in week 1, and attempted just 24 passes, and the 3 passes that went in McCaffrey’s direction totaled negative-2 air yards. He finished with 3 catches for 18 yards on those targets. McCaffrey gets a favorable matchup this week against a Giants’ defense that allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game last year, but the Washington passing game is a work in progress, and I don’t expect a breakout game for the rookie this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): Tracy was one of just two rookie running backs to play 10+ snaps in week 1, but his 14 snaps amounted to just 3 touches and 7 yards. The Giants get a much better matchup this week against a bad Commanders’ defense, but I wouldn’t have enough trust in Tracy to plug him into lineups.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 2: @ Mia.): There was a lot of excitement about Davis potentially playing the ‘Latavius Murray role’ in the offense behind James Cook, where he would see goal line opportunities in addition to change-of-pace work. Instead, he played just 6 snaps and served as the 3^rd-string running back behind both Cook and Ty Johnson, and the only Bill to handle a rushing attempt inside the 5-yard line was Cook. Davis still has some work to do before you can plug him into the lineup.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Like Ray Davis above, Benson opened the season one spot lower on the depth chart than we were hoping for, handling RB3 duties behind workhorse James Conner and Emari Demercado. Demercado played more in passing situations, while Benson spelled Conner on early downs. Even if he had all the backup work behind Conner, he likely still wouldn’t be getting enough work to be a viable fantasy starter. Demercado and Benson combined for just 6 touches in week 1.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): Steele’s role in week 1 played out pretty much as I expected it to. He was merely an early down change of pace back when Isiah Pacheco needed a breather. The rookie played just 4 snaps and handled 2 rushing attempts while Samaje Perine played 8 snaps in passing situations. A couple carries isn’t enough for fantasy relevance, even against a mediocre Bengals run defense (they ranked 28^th in run defense DVOA a season ago).

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 2: @ Min.): Guerendo served as the RB2 for the 49ers when Christian McCaffrey was a surprise inactive on Monday night, but it’s not a role that makes him fantasy relevant, even if CMC misses another game or two. Jordan Mason was fantastic as the fill-in RB1 last week, piling up 147 yards and a TD, and his change-of-pace back was Deebo Samuel. Whenever CMC is out, the 49ers lean more heavily on Deebo out of the backfield. Samuel carried the ball 8 times on Monday night while Guerendo was limited to just 3 snaps.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Ari.): Corum’s time will come. He’ll eventually work his way into the RB2 role behind Kyren Williams, but for now he’s running behind Ronnie Rivers as well. Corum didn’t play a single snap in week 1 and will be limited to kick return duties for the time being. Don’t get impatient if you drafted Corum but know that he probably won’t play a very meaningful role in these first few weeks.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 2: @ Ten.): Allen logged 8 snaps in week 1, but many of those came late in the game after the Jets had fallen behind and pulled Aaron Rodgers from the game. This backfield wholly belongs to Breece Hall, and Allen is just hoping for scraps. The Titans are a tough matchup for running backs even when they do get opportunities. I don’t expect Allen to get many of them.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Ind.): Lloyd was inactive in week 1 with a hamstring injury, and there’s a good chance that even if he’s good to play this week, he may serve as the RB3 behind Josh Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson. This Colts’ defense got dismantled by Joe Mixon in week 1, and Jordan Love is out with injury, so the Packers will likely lean on the ground game. If all 3 Packer backs are active, I wouldn’t expect more than a handful of touches for Lloyd. Josh Jacobs did pop up with an injury as well this week, but it doesn’t sound serious. I’d expect him to be in line for his usual workload.

RBs Audric Estime & Blake Watson, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): I was going to talk about Estime playing just 3 snaps in the opener, but if you missed the news, he was placed on IR on Wednesday and will miss at least the next 4 games. That means Blake Watson will step up into the RB3 role going forward, but I don’t expect him to find substantial playing time. Jaleel McLaughlin was terribly inefficient in week 1, tallying just 28 total yards on 15 touches, but he was hardly the only inefficient Bronco in the opener. I wouldn’t expect a drastic change in playing time in the backfield for week 2. Watson could be worth a stash in deep PPR leagues though in case that inefficiency continues.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Polk didn’t start in week 1, but he played essentially a starter’s share of the snaps. He was in a route on 62% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but that led to just 1 target that he caught for 6 yards. The New England passing offense is going to be conservative as long as Jacoby Brissett is under center, and the Seahawks’ defense looked stellar in week 1 – they ranked 2^nd in pass defense DVOA for the week. I wouldn’t count on Polk breaking through this week.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 2: @ Den.): It’s still unclear whether Wilson will make his NFL debut this week (he’s getting in limited practices as of Wednesday), but he’d be a lackluster fantasy option even if we knew he was being inserted right into the starting lineup. With Justin Fields at QB, the Steelers attempted just 23 passes in week 1, and half of the targets went to George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. Wilson would be splitting the other half with the running backs, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin, and the backup tight ends (we all know how Arthur Smith likes his backup tight ends). Wait until we see what Roman’s usage looks like before starting him.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 2: @ Ari.): The Rams’ WR room took a big hit in week one when Puka Nacua suffered an injury that will land him on IR and sideline him for at least 4 weeks. Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson figure to be the biggest beneficiaries of the available playing time, but Whittington could see a bump as well. He technically only played 2 offensive snaps in the opener, but he did have a goal-line TD run get called back due to penalty. One goal-line rushing attempt isn’t enough reason to start him this week, but you could see his role grow during Puka’s absence. Whittington put up gaudy numbers during the preseason when the 1^st and 2^nd stringers were sitting and impressed the coaches.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 2: @ Hou.): If you missed the news, Odunze sprained his MCL last weekend and is considered week-to-week. He’s almost certain to miss this week’s tilt with the Texans.

WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 2: @ Ten.): Corley didn’t run a single route in week 1, and there’s not much reason to expect a drastic change in week 2. If anything, the competition for playing time will get tougher after a strong opener by Allen Lazard and with Mike Williams getting healthier. There’s no reason to fire up Corley.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 2: @ KC): The Bengals were without Tee Higgins in week 1 and Burton still didn’t come close to cracking the WR rotation. He played behind all of Andrei Iosivas, Trenton Irwin, and Charlie Jones, and ran just 1 route in week 1. Tee Higgins looks to be on the wrong side of questionable again this week, but Burton likely isn’t going to pick up much playing time as a result.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Sanders was on the field a lot in week 1, running a route on 69% of the Panthers’ passing dropbacks, but he was targeted just once, and he was 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage on that target. Even though he’s playing starter’s snaps, this is a broken passing game where he’s an afterthought in the target pecking order for now.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): If Sinnott is going to play a major role in the Commanders offense this season, it’s going to happen later in the season than we’d like. He played behind both Zach Ertz and John Bates in week 1, running just 3 target-less routes. There’s upside here, especially with the Commanders’ scheme focusing on short passes for Jayden Daniels, but you’re going to have to be patient and wait for his playing time to come up.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): Wright was a healthy scratch in week 1, but that almost certainly won’t be the case in week 2 with Raheem Mostert already ruled out for Thursday night’s game and De’Von Achane questionable as well. Jeff Wilson Jr. served as the RB3 in the opener, and he has more experience in this offense, but Wright’s big-play ability makes him the more enticing fantasy option. We know the Dolphins love game-breaking speed, and Wright has plenty of it. If Achane plays, look for Wright to only log a handful of touches, but there’s a chance he could break any one of them for a big play. If Achane sits, I’d expect Wilson to get the start, but would expect Mike McDaniel to be willing the ride the hot hand if Wright gets it going. If Achane sits, I’d see Wright as an upside RB3 option this week.

Update: De’Von Achane is active for Thursday night

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 2: vs. Pit.): The Broncos passing game was an ugly slog of short passes, but a lot of those short passes found their way to Vele, and he did a great job of hauling in the targets that came his way. The rookie had 8 targets with just a 2-yard average target depth, but he did catch all 8 passes for 39 yards and finish the week as a top-30 PPR WR. It’s clear Bo Nix and Sean Payton like Vele, and Denver’s pass-heavy approach should make him a viable PPR WR3 in a lot of weeks.  The Steelers do boast a strong pass defense, so I wouldn’t be too aggressive about getting Vele into the lineup this week, but he should probably be rostered in most 12-team PPR leagues.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 2: @ Was.): Johnson’s week 1 usage was a big surprise after the Giants’ listed Daniel Bellinger as their starting tight end on their final depth chart. Johnson was in a route on 76% of the team’s dropbacks while Bellinger was in a route on just 16%. Johnson is the starting tight end. This week isn’t a great matchup to plug Johnson in – the Commanders get shredded by wide receivers but allowed the 10^th-fewest TE points per game a year ago – but he shouldn’t be sitting on waivers in deeper leagues, especially 2-TE or TE premium leagues. Johnson is an impressive athlete and had an 18% air yardage share in week 1 on his 4 targets. You’d prefer he had a better QB throwing him the ball, but there are some spike weeks in Johnson’s future with his physical traits and playing time.

TE Brevyn Spann-Ford, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Spann-Ford is really only a name you need to be familiar with in the deepest of TE-premium leagues. Cowboys’ starter Jake Ferguson suffered a sprained MCL late in Dallas’ opening win against the Browns, and it was the UDFA rookie Spann-Ford that was 2^nd on the team in tight end routes run, and not 2023 2^nd-round pick Luke Schoonmaker. Both will likely factor in while Ferguson is sidelined (a sprained MCL should keep him out for a few weeks), but if I had to pick one to target, I’d rather add Schoonmaker than Spann-Ford. It's likely the rookie saw extended snaps in the opener due to the lopsided score. Schoonmaker is a better athlete, has more sure hands (PFF credited Brevyn with 9 drops in 2023 despite catching just 25 passes), and more pro experience. I’d treat Schoonmaker as a streaming TE2 option and Spann-Ford as a stash to watch this week if you need immediate TE help in deep leagues.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.