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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 6 was another banner week for the rookie class. There were 4 rookie running backs that finished in the top 12 at the position, and 3 rookie receivers as well. Justin Jefferson, D’Andre Swift, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire had especially big days. For Jefferson, it was the second time he’s topped 160 yards this season, and Swift and CEH each set their season-high in rushing yards. CEH made an emphatic case to remain the lead back despite the signing of Le’Veon Bell. This week there aren’t as many automatic starters among the rookies, but there are plenty who could have big games in week 7. There are still plenty of byes and injuries to contend with, so you me be scouring the free agent pool a little deeper than usual, and there may be a rookie who can help. Keep in mind that any players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Let’s dive into what to expect…

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 7: vs. Jax.): Herbert has consistently produced since taking the starting job, reaching at least 260 yards passing each week. He’s also thrown for 7 touchdowns in the last two weeks, and this week faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and has allowed the 8^th-most QB points per game (all point totals and rankings based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted). Herbert isn’t an auto-start in 1-QB leagues, but you should have 2 studs you’re playing instead if you’re sitting him in 2-QB formats. The Chargers don’t blow anyone out, so they shouldn’t get so far out in front that they stop throwing. Herbert should be a very safe bet for 250+ yards and at least 2 scores.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 7: @Atl.): Swift finally had the breakout game people who drafted him have been waiting for, rushing for 116 yards and 2 scores in a blowout win over the Jaguars. He still only played 38% of the offensive snaps, but he made the most of his opportunities against a terrible Jacksonville defense. This week’s matchup Isn’t quite as juicy for Swift, but his receiving prowess should be a factor in this one. Atlanta has allowed the 2^nd most receptions, 3^rd most receiving yards, and the most receiving TDs to opposing running backs per game. They’ve coughed up the 15^th-most RB points per game, so the receiving work is where a large portion of the scoring is coming from and Swift is the Detroit back best positioned to take advantage. There is some risk here since Detroit has been inconsistent with their running back usage, but I have faith that this matchup favors Swift, and that he’s going to finish as an RB2 or better in PPR and half-PPR formats.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 7: @LAC): Robinson has consistently seen his weekly upside limited by the Jaguars’ overall futility, but that may be changing this week. Chris Thompson was added to the team’s COVID reserve list, meaning Robinson is likely the best back on the roster to be used in passing situations, and he’s already been the main back on early downs. Devine Ozigbo was activated from IR this week, but I would still expect Robinson to operate as a bellcow against the Chargers. The Chargers do rank 13^th in run defense DVOA so this isn’t a cake matchup, but Robinson has at least 15 touches in every game this season and at least 4 catches in each of the last 4. He’ll be a high-floor RB2 in PPR leagues this week who could have a higher ceiling than usual without Thompson around to siphon passing-down work. He should be started in most formats.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Higgins has developed a clear rapport with Joe Burrow, drawing an average of 8 targets per game over the past 4 contests, and leading the WR group in snaps played in 3 of those 4 games. He broke through for his first 100-yard receiving game last week, and this week gets to face off with a Cleveland defense that has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game in the league. Joe Burrow had his best game of the season against these Browns, and while Higgins is going to match up with the best corner the Browns have (Denzel Ward), his target share should be solid enough that he’ll be a safe WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): Burrow’s best game so far this season came in week 2 against the same Browns he faces this week, when he threw for 316 yards and 3 TDs. The concern I have is that he had to throw the ball 61 times to reach those numbers. He hasn’t had even 40 attempts in any other game this season. The Browns have been playing better defense against QBs in recent weeks, holding Philip Rivers to fewer than 8 points and Big Ben to fewer than 11, and Burrow has been held without a passing TD in 3 of his 6 starts. He’s had a rushing score in two of those games, but I wouldn’t count on him continuing to find rushing scores to bail out his worst fantasy days. Burrow isn’t likely to kill you if you play him as your QB2 this week considering he’s already had a huge game against this defense, but he’s by no means a guy you have to start in 2-QB leagues if you have options you like better. 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 7: @Den.): It seems likely that Le’Veon Bell will make his debut for the Chiefs this week, and that will immediately change CEH’s status as an every-week auto-start. Bell is going to be involved. That’s not to say that Edwards-Helaire can’t help your fantasy team going forward, but he’s going to lose touches which will cap his ceiling. This week’s matchup with Denver isn’t a great one on paper. The Chiefs are a heavy 9.5-point favorite, so they should be able to lean on the run game, but Denver has done a great job limiting opposing backs. The Broncos rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-fewest running back fantasy points per game. CEH could supplement his numbers with some receiving work, but James White is the only back to record more than 3 catches in a game against the Broncos this year. When you factor in Bell taking some of Clyde’s touches, it’s not hard to envision CEH having a lackluster fantasy game. He still has top-10 upside in this one, but the floor is a bit lower this week.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Dal.): Week 6 was the 5^th time in 6 games that JD McKissic played more snaps than Gibson, and that will continue to happen as long as the Washington Football Team continues to play from behind. This week’s game with the Dak-less Cowboys is a pick’em in Vegas, so there is a reasonable chance that the game script stays at least neutral for Washington this week. Dallas has been abysmal on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA, and Gibson has been more active in the passing game in recent weeks with 4+ catches in three straight games. Antonio will probably continue to reside on the borderline until he sees his snap share go up, but he’s a decent RB2 option this week.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 7: vs. Jax.): At this point I am assuming that Justin Jackson, who is questionable with a knee injury, will play. That will limit Kelley to being a flex option this week, albeit one with plenty of upside. He’d be a sure-fire start if Jackson is out. The Jaguars have proven to be one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing the 6^th-most RB points per game and ranking 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Kelley has handled at least 10 touches in every game this season, even as he’s split playing time with Austin Ekeler and then Jackson. Against the Jaguars, the game script should favor the Chargers, so he should see more volume than usual, and those touches are gold against a defense like Jacksonville. Don’t be discouraged this week if you need Kelley as a fill-in. This should be his best fantasy game since week 2.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 7: @Hou.): The expectation at this point is that Aaron Jones is going to sit out on Sunday nursing a calf injury. If that happens, Dillon is going to get his first real chance to make his mark. Tyler Ervin will be out as well, so the Green Bay backfield will be split between Dillon and Jamaal Williams. Houston has been one of the best matchups for running backs, ranking 28^th in run defense DVOA and giving up the 2^nd-most RB points per game. They’ve given up by far a league-worst 161 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. There is still some uncertainty to how the workload will be split between Dillon and Williams. Williams has played nearly 5 times as many snaps as Dillon for the year and has 43 touches to just 13 for Dillon. My best guess as to how the split will play out is that they will have a pretty even split on early downs, and that Williams will get almost all of the passing down work. In this plus matchup, even half the carries should give Dillon a strong shot at 60+ rushing yards. He’s in play as a flex option, and is a stronger play in non-PPR formats.

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): In the Jets’ first game after releasing Le’Veon Bell, Perine stepped into the lead back role, playing 58% of the offensive snaps, but Frank Gore still handled 15 touches to Perine’s 9. Buffalo isn’t a bad matchup for running backs. They rank 24^th in run defense DVOA and have given up the 14^th-most RB points per game. Perine should continue to see his touches increase going forward, and that means double-digit touches are possible this week. Against Buffalo that puts him on the flex radar, but I would avoid playing him unless you are desperate. The Jets implied total for the week is just 16.5, so they are not an offense to target.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 7:  @Ten.): Claypool followed up his 4-touchdown breakout game with another top-10 WR finish in week 6, logging 81 scrimmage yards and a score. The matchup this week is a good one with the Titans allowing the 6^th-most WR points per game, but the concern I have for Claypool is the return of Diontae Johnson. Johnson was the clear WR1 in this offense when he was healthy, seeing 23 targets come his way in the first two weeks of the season (31.5% share). Claypool seemed to mostly assume Johnson’s role the last two weeks, but I would expect his workload to take a sizable hit with Johnson returning. We don’t have a clear picture of what the Steelers’ WR depth chart will look like with everyone healthy. I expect it’ll be James Washington who sees the biggest drop in playing time this week, but Claypool takes enough of a hit that I see him as an upside WR3 this week rather than an automatic start.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 7: @Was.): The Dallas offense looked like a shell of itself in week 6 with Dak Prescott out, but Lamb managed to put up a passable fantasy day on volume alone. He matched his season-high with 11 targets and finished with a 7-64 line. He should continue to be one of the top 2 options in the passing game along with Amari Cooper, but Dalton at QB certainly looks like it’s going to put a dent in his upside. The matchup this week is a tough one. Washington ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game.  If you start Lamb this week, you probably shouldn’t expect much more than what he put up last week.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 7: @NYJ): John Brown has been ruled out for week 7, and that bodes well for Davis. In the two games where Brown played less than 50% of the snaps, Davis posted 4-81 on 4 targets, and 5-51 on 9 targets. The Jets have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, ranking 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and Buffalo has an implied point total of 29.5 points. If Davis manages to get in the end zone, I expect this to easily be his highest scoring fantasy week of the year. Anything short of 10 PPR points in this one would be a disappointment.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 7: @LAC): Shenault is coming off his worst game of the season in week 6, and week 7 should at least be a little bit better for him. The Chargers are just a middling pass defense, and although Shenault will draw a tough individual matchup with Casey Heyward for much of the game, he’s been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 4 games. The best sign for optimism for Viska is that the Chargers allow the 6^th-most yards after catch per game and Shenault does a lot of his damage by getting the ball in space. He’s in play as a PPR WR3 with a little bit of upside in deeper leagues.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Jeudy struggled to make a fantasy impact last Sunday in a tough matchup with the Patriots, but the more concerning result from that game is that for the second consecutive game he was significantly out-targeted by Tim Patrick, who may be operating as the Broncos’ WR1. I expected that the return of Drew Lock would result in more balls going to Jeudy, but that wasn’t the case at least for one game. This week Jeudy gets another tough matchup in the slot against Tyrann Mathieu. His volume could see a boost this week with Denver a 9.5-point underdog, but it remains to be seen if that will translate into more points against a defense that allows the 5^th-fewest WR points per game. He’s no more than a floor WR3 play this week in deeper leagues. 

Rookies to Sit:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Akers has been an afterthought in the Rams offense since returning from his injury, playing just 1 snap in week 6 and just 14 snaps total in the two games since he’s been back. There’s no question the Rams want to make an effort to get him more involved going forward, but it’s hard to be sure when it will happen. This week looked like a good opportunity with Darrell Henderson questionable due to a thigh injury, but he was removed from the injury report late in the week and should be good to go. The Bears rank 11^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 11^th fewest RB points per game, so there isn’t much reason to expect a useful fantasy day from Akers if he’s only going to see a handful of touches.

RB Ja’Mycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 7: @NE): Hasty looked good last week in relief of Raheem Mostert after Mostert left Sunday night’s game with injury, but the backfield outlook for the 49ers is a little murky going forward. Jeff Wilson Jr. is likely to be back this week, and he has served as a goal-line option when Mostert has been out previously. This has the makings of a 3-man committee with Hasty splitting early down work with Jerick McKinnon, McKinnon handling passing down work, and Wilson being the short yardage and goal-line option. That’s going to severely limit the fantasy upside for all 3 of them. If I had to choose one to play it would be McKinnon. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game.

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 7: @LV): Vaughn looked good in week 6 putting up 42 yards on just 5 carries, but his window for fantasy viability seems to have closed with LeSean McCoy returning last week and Leonard Fournette practicing in full ahead of this week’s game. It couldn’t have happened at a worse time for the rookie. The Bucs are about to square off with a defense that allows the 3^rd-most RB points per game. It’s unlikely he gets back to 5 carries this week unless it’s a blowout win again. Vaughn shouldn’t be near your fantasy lineups this week despite a plum matchup.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 7: @NE): Aiyuk saw his lowest target total since week 2 last Sunday night against the Rams. He managed to bail out his fantasy day with a touchdown, but he’s only reached 4+ catches and 60+ scrimmage yards once in the 5 games he’s played, and this was the second time in three games that he finished with fewer than 20 receiving yards. The Patriots have given up the 13^th-most WR points per game, but a lot of that is due to more than 200 yards and 4 TDs that they gave up to Seattle’s receivers in week 2. They’ve been better in their other contests. Aiyuk will need to find the end zone to be a worthwhile option in week 7, and the 49ers have an implied total of just 21 points. I’d search for better options this week.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 7: vs. TB): Ruggs posted the best game of his young career in week 6 with 118 receiving yards and a touchdown, but he got there with just 2 catches on 3 targets. It’s hard to imagine him duplicating those numbers if his targets don’t increase. The performance last week came against a stingy Chiefs’ pass defense, and he gets another stingy defense this week. Tampa Bay ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. The Bucs have given up 3 pass plays of 40+ yards in 6 games, and it will probably take at least one deep ball for Ruggs to return value again. There is upside for Ruggs, but a low floor as well. You may need some antacids handy if you start Ruggs this week.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 7: @LAR): I’ve been high on Mooney in past weeks, but he hasn’t managed to turn a solid target share into productive fantasy weeks. Mooney is averaging 6 targets per game over the past 4 weeks, but he’s only reached 40+ receiving yards once in that span, and he’s yet to catch a touchdown from Nick Foles. This week would seem like a good one for him to get a few extra targets with Jalen Ramsey likely to be following Allen Robinson around, but the Bears have shown they’re willing to keep throwing Robinson’s way in tough matchups and the Rams have allowed the fewest WR points per game in the league. Anything over 40 yards out of Mooney this week would be a success for him.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Hamler is expected to return this week after missing the last two games, but he walks into a tough matchup against the Chiefs. He’s averaged 6 targets per game in the two games that he played in full this season, but Kansas City has allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game. Denver should be playing from behind and throwing a decent amount, but they’ve yet to throw for 250 yards in a game as a team and Hamler is yet to catch for 50. I’d look for a safer option this week.

WR Freddie Swain, SEA (Wk. 7: @Ari.): Swain has started to push David Moore for the WR3 role in Seattle in recent weeks, but he’s still not quite to the point that he’s fantasy relevant. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the focal points of the passing game, so Swain will have to move fully ahead of Moore to be worth consideration. This isn’t a week to consider taking a shot on an ancillary Seattle receiver with Arizona allowing the 7^th-fewest WR points per game. Monitor Swain in dynasty leagues, but there’s no reason to play him this week.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 7: @LV): Johnson got in the end zone last weekend, but it was his only target of the game. He isn’t going to get much work as long as the rest of the WR group is healthy. He played just 17 snaps in week 6, and I don’t expect that number to be much higher in weeks where everyone else is healthy. This week’s matchup with the Raiders is a good one, but Johnson won’t be in a position to take advantage of it.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 7: @LAR): Kmet scored his first touchdown last week, but it wasn’t the result of increased playing time. He still played only 35% of the snaps and remains the number 3 tight end in this offense. There’s no reason to consider him as anything more than a TD dart throw. The Rams have given up 4 tight end scores this season, but that doesn’t make it likely Kmet scores the 5^th.

Rookies on byes in week 7: QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA, RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, RB JK Dobbins, BAL, WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, WR Devin Duvernay, BAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 7: @NYJ): Moss returned to the lineup last Monday against Kansas City, but he played just 25% of the offensive snaps and tallied 5 carries and 10 yards. The key to Moss’s value is going to come from red zone opportunities, but last Monday the Bills ran just two offensive plays in the red zone. Both were touchdown passes. There should be a LOT more opportunity in this game for both Moss and Singletary. The Bills are favored by 13 points and should have plenty of chances to run the ball in the second half. The Jets have allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game, and Moss has a very real chance to get double-digit touches against that defense if the game goes the way Vegas expects it to. Moss would be an interesting dart throw if you’re in a tough spot in a deeper league, and he costs barely more than the minimum on DraftKings.

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will both be sidelined on Sunday, and while Tre’Quan Smith will be the biggest beneficiary, I’d expect Callaway to be an every-down player as well. Callaway played more snaps than Sanders back in week 5 and finished that game with 4 catches for 34 yards on 6 targets. The Panthers have done a pretty good job limiting opposing WRs, holding them to the 5^th-fewest points per game, so the Saints offense is going to run mostly through Kamara, Jared Cook, and Latavius Murray. There should still be enough work for the receivers for Callaway to see another 6 or 7 targets, and with an implied total just below 30 points for New Orleans there should be a chance at a TD as well. Callaway costs the minimum on DraftKings and can be a nice fill-in WR in deeper leagues if byes or injuries are an issue for you.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 7: vs. Buf.): Mims finally makes his season debut this week after battling through a hamstring injury, and while it would take a brave fantasy player to put him in the lineup in week 7, he shouldn’t be languishing on the waiver wire in deeper leagues. There is very little stiff competition for targets on the Jets’ depth chart, so it shouldn’t take Mims long to find his way into a prominent role. Jamison Crowder is doubtful for week 7, so his 11.5 targets per game will have to go somewhere, but the most likely candidate to benefit this week would be Braxton Berrios. The Bills allow the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, so even if Mims does see a reasonable target share he’ll have limited upside this week. He’s a guy you should be stashing for now, and only considering as a minimum cost DFS option in week 7.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 7: @Cin.): Bryant had been building toward being a usable weekly option in 2 tight end leagues, but that was before David Njoku returned to the lineup. In week 6, Njoku played more snaps than Bryant for the first time all season. That would’ve made Bryant droppable in all formats…but then Austin Hooper popped up with an injury that will keep him out this week. The Browns play with 2 tight ends on the field a lot, and the Bengals have allowed 4 tight end scores in the last two weeks. Bryant is worth considering as a TD dart throw in DFS and if you’re desperate in deep leagues. I would prefer David Njoku to Bryant, but both have upside in this one.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions this week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on who winds up being inactive on game-day and make sure none of them are in your lineups. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 7 was another eventful one for the rookie crop. Chase Claypool and CeeDee Lamb each seemingly took the week off, but there were plenty of other big rookie performances to enjoy. Brandon Aiyuk, Antonio Gibson and James Robinson all reached 100 scrimmage yards in week 7, bringing the total of 100-yard days for the rookies to 23 divvied up between 12 different players. Justin Herbert finished the week as the QB1 and Joe Burrow as the QB4 in the best week of the season for either of them. Clyde Edwards-Helaire found the end zone of the first time since week 1, Harrison Bryant found it twice, and Albert Okwuegbunam became the first rookie tight end to reach 60 receiving yards in a game this year. The rookies certainly have more in store for us in week 8, so let’s dive in and look at what to expect…

(Note: All fantasy point totals and rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. All players under same header at same position are listed in order I would play them this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): Burrow has had the Browns’ number this season despite the Bengals getting swept by Cleveland for the year. Over the two meetings Burrow totaled over 700 yards and 6 scores through the air, and another 53 and a TD on the ground. Since week 2, Burrow has thrown for over 300 yards against every opponent he’s faced except the Ravens, and the Titans aren’t a daunting matchup. Tennessee has given up the 10^th-most QB points per game despite facing the 11^th-easiest QB schedule. They’ve allowed each of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced to throw for 250+ yards and multiple TDs, and I’d expect the Bengals’ QB to have a great chance to extend that streak to 6. Burrow is in-play for 1-QB leagues this week.

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 8: @Den.): Herbert is coming off a monster game in week 7, his best fantasy game of the year, but the matchup this week isn’t quite as easy. I’d still view him as a low-end QB1 for week 8. He’s thrown for at least 260 yards each game this season and has accounted for 11 total TDs in the last 3 weeks. Denver has only allowed 2 QBs to throw for 250 yards against them, and has given up just 1 passing TD in the last 3 games combined, but they’ve proven to be vulnerable to QB runs. Sam Darnold ran for 84 yards and a score against them in week 4, and Cam Newton ran for 76 and a TD in week 6. Herbert showed what he can do running the ball last week with 66 yards and a TD on the ground against Jacksonville. That rushing ability should give him enough cushion to withstand it if he doesn’t have a ceiling passing game. View Herbert as a very strong QB2 or upside low-end QB1.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 8: @Det.): Taylor benefitted in his last couple games from a banged up Jordan Wilkins, and while Wilkins may be healthier this week the matchup with Detroit is good enough for Taylor to be a locked-in RB2 even if he cedes some carries to the vet. Detroit allows the 5^th-most RB points per game, the Colts are favored by a field goal, and Taylor is coming off his most productive receiving game since week 1. Taylor is a safe bet to make a run at 100 scrimmage yards for the second game in a row, and given the Colts’ implied total of 26.5 he’s a pretty good bet to find the end zone as well.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): I can’t say for sure if Edwards-Helaire has felt the pressure from the Chiefs’ signing of Le’Veon Bell, but his play over the last two weeks has looked like that of a man that doesn’t want to lose his job. In Bell’s debut, CEH had to split work with the veteran addition, and had to give way to DeAndre Washington in the 2^nd half with the game well in hand, but he still managed to finish as the RB15 for the week. This week’s matchup with the Jets has as lopsided of an NFL betting line as I’ve ever seen, with Kansas City favored by an absurd 19.5 points. It’s possible CEH and Bell are watching from the sideline down the stretch again, but you can’t sit Clyde in this game. The Jets have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game, and CEH is the lead half of the RB committee in a game where the Chiefs implied total is 34 points. There is a great chance that Edwards-Helaire gets in the end zone in this one, and he should be locked into your lineup if you have him.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 8: @GB): Over the last month or so Jefferson has made a clear case that his upside is just too much to leave on your bench. He’s topped 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, and 160 in two of them. He did square off with the Packers in week 1 without much success (2-26 on 3 targets), but that was with no preseason, and he had yet to unseat Bisi Johnson for the WR2 role. Adam Thielen is likely to draw shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, which could be a boost for Jefferson. Alexander has struggled with Adam Thielen in past meetings, including coughing up 6-110-2 on 8 targets in week 1, but Jaire has been much better since then. The Vikings are a 6-point underdog, so game script should keep them throwing. Jefferson should be a solid WR2 this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 8: @Sea.): The 49ers just cannot keep their offensive weapons healthy this season. Last Sunday it was Deebo Samuel and Jeffrey Wilson who went down, and Aiyuk stands to benefit from it this week. The Seahawks have allowed the most WR points per game in the league, and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. He’ll be the default WR1 in this game. The 49ers have a reputation of throwing most of their passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, and Aiyuk can excel in that short passing game, but the average pass thrown to Aiyuk has been over 11 yards downfield. He’s not limited to just the short game. The 49ers will have to score to keep pace with Seattle, and that probably means 7+ targets for the rookie. He’s going to be a safe WR3 in all formats this week.

Borderline Rookies:

RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 8: @Sea.): The 49ers should probably just start putting the words “next man up” on the back of their running back jerseys rather than a name. They’ve seen Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and now Jeffrey Wilson all go down with injuries this year, and every time someone goes down, they seem to have a dynamic back ready to step in and take over. It appears to be Hasty’s turn to be that back. He’s looked great on the opportunities he’s gotten in the last two weeks, totaling 94 yards on 18 carries. The Seahawks have been a solid run defense, ranking 8^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 12^th-fewest points per game to the position, but they struggled to contain Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, and Chase Edmonds in their last 2 games. The absence of run-stuffing safety Jamal Adams has started to be a problem. Adams’ status is still up in the air this week. If he plays it would be a slight downgrade for Hasty, but he should be in line for 15+ carries and a few targets as well. Jerick McKinnon will mix in a bit also, but look for Hasty to be the lead back. He should be a reasonable RB2 option this week depending on what your lineup looks like.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Ind.): Swift managed to find the end zone for the second straight week last Sunday, but the touchdown was the highlight of an otherwise pedestrian fantasy day. There were some positives to take away though. It was the second straight week where Swift led the backfield in snaps, and he’s seen almost as many carries as Adrian Peterson in those two weeks. He’s also now seen 4+ targets in 5 of 6 games for the season. He gets a tough matchup this week with the Colts, who allow the 5^th-fewest running back points per game, so you should temper expectations a little bit. I still think Swift has shown enough that he will continue to see the most snaps and touches in this backfield and is a viable flex option this week even in a difficult matchup.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Moss played in almost an even split of the backfield snaps with Devin Singletary in week 7, and if that timeshare continues he could be a sneaky upside option in week 8. The Patriots can be run on. They rank just 25^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed at least 1 running back in each of their last 5 games to reach 60+ rushing yards and 80+ scrimmage yards. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in this game, so game script should remain at least neutral for them. I like Moss’s chances of getting 10+ carries, and I think he’s the more likely bet than Singletary if the Pats are going to extend their streak to 6 games of 60+ and 80+. I view him as an upside RB3/flex option.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Mark Ingram left the Ravens’ week 6 game with an injury heading into the bye week, and he’s still not practicing this week as of Thursday. That means Dobbins and Gus Edwards are likely to split the backfield work on Sunday. The two saw an almost dead-even split of the snaps in week 6, with Dobbins handling 9 carries and 4 targets while Edwards handled 14 and 1. Dobbins had more rushing yards on his 9 attempts than Edwards had on 14. This week’s matchup with Pittsburgh is a difficult one. The Steelers rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-fewest points to the position, so it could be a bit of an uphill fight to a strong fantasy day. If you had to choose one of the two to play this week, I would go with Dobbins. He’s clearly the more explosive back, and he’s posted 3 plays of 30+ yards on just 36 touches this season. I’d view him as a contrarian DFS play at $4,600 in DraftKings and a flex option in deeper leagues.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 8: @Den.): Kelley seemed to move ahead of Justin Jackson in the Chargers’ backfield pecking order, but this will remain a fluid situation moving forward. Kelley out-snapped Jackson 38-to-31 and handled 17 touches to Jackson’s 10 against the Jaguars. The matchup this week is much tougher against a Denver defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game. The Broncos have allowed just 2 backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in their last 4 games, and James White had to catch 8 passes to accomplish the feat. Given that the work will be split between Kelley and Jackson, I’d only be considering Kelley if you’re desperate here. There is some upside if he further takes over the early-down work and widens the playing time gap with Jackson, but it could just as easily go the other direction.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): I would lean towards playing Higgins if I have him, but the re-emergence of AJ Green has made him a bit more of a volatile play. Higgins saved his day with a 4^th-quarter touchdown last week, but the 5 targets he saw come his way were the fewest he’s seen since week 1. Tennessee has been carved up by opposing wide receivers, allowing the 4^th-most points per game to the position, but it’s Tyler Boyd who will have the easiest matchup in this one again slot corner Chris Jackson. Jackson is a 7^th-round rookie who has been forced into a starting role and has a 29.9 coverage grade (scale from 0-100) from Pro Football Focus. Higgins still has easy starter upside in a game that could be a shootout, but there is some downside if he doesn’t get in the end zone.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 8: @Cle.): If there was ever a week where Ruggs is going to look like a good option, it’s this one. He faces a Cleveland defense that has surrendered the 2^nd-most WR points per game and ranks 25^th in pass defense DVOA. The only thing holding him back is his lack of volume. Ruggs hasn’t seen more than 3 targets come his way in a game since week 1, but he didn’t let that stop him from going for 118 yards and a score against the Chiefs two weeks ago. At some point the Raiders have to give their number 1 receiver more opportunities. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week, and the matchup makes me a little more inclined to take a chance on this being a boom week. He’s a very interesting option for DFS tournaments at $4,900 on DraftKings.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NO): Allen Robinson is still sitting out of practice with a concussion as of Thursday, so Sunday’s game may be a big opportunity for Mooney. Mooney saw his highest snap share of the season in week 7, and he’s averaged 6.5 targets per game over the last 4 games. He almost posted a huge game in week 7, but Nick Foles just missed hitting him for a long TD to beat a Rams’ zero blitz on Monday. Robinson has averaged 10 targets per game this season, so if he misses this game Mooney will be in line for an obvious bump in volume. The Saints have a middling WR defense, allowing the 13^th-most WR points per game. Mooney should get serious consideration as a WR3 option this week if A-Rob doesn’t play. He would be a chalky play in DFS in that scenario at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 8: @Chi.): If you’re considering Callaway, you’ll need to monitor the status of Michael Thomas ahead of this game. If Thomas plays, Callaway would move to the ‘Rookies to Sit’ portion of the column. If Thomas is out, Callaway becomes an intriguing PPR WR3 option with Emmanuel Sanders also still sidelined battling a symptomatic case of Covid-19. Thomas did return to practice on Thursday, but his status is still up in the air. Callaway has played more than 65% of the offensive snaps in each of the last two weeks, and in those games he has averaged 8 targets, 6 catches, and 54.5 yards. The Bears are a stingy defense against WRs, allowing the 4^th-fewest points per game to the position, but Drew Brees has a way of finding his guys. I think he would finish not too far off what he did last week if Thomas is out again.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): When Courtland Sutton went down for the year, it was assumed it would be Jeudy who would step into a WR1 role for the Broncos, but that hasn’t been the case so far. Tim Patrick has cemented himself into that role instead with Jeudy serving as more of a secondary option. The rookie has just 13 targets over the last 3 games, and has turned them into 6 catches for 113 yards and a TD. This week’s opponent, the Chargers, allow the 10^th-fewest WR points per game. With Jeudy spending a lot of time in the slot, he should at least avoid the toughest Charger CB Casey Heyward. It’ll be Patrick who draws that matchup, but this game won’t be a picnic for Jeudy. He should still see a handful of targets, but he’s not an option you should be relying on unless forced to in a deeper league.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Week 7 was a sobering reminder of just how low Lamb’s floor will be without Dak Prescott under center. This isn’t going to be the dynamic passing game it was early in the season, and Lamb will need volume to return productive games. Lamb gets the best matchup of the Dallas WRs, facing off with slot corner Cre’Von LeBlanc while Amari Cooper is likely to be shadowed by Darius Slay, but with Ben DiNucci under center you should be dropping expectations pretty low. Philly gives up the 12^th-most WR points per game, but Lamb is no more than a floor PPR flex play this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 8: @LV): Bryant made the most of Austin Hooper’s appendectomy last weekend by getting into the end zone twice against the Bengals. He played 77% of the offensive snaps and looks like the #1 tight end as long as Hooper is out. The Raiders haven’t been especially giving to tight ends, allowing the 14^th-fewest TE points per game, but in the last 2 games they’ve allowed Travis Kelce to put up 8-108-1 and Gronk to put up 5-62-1. They also are pretty bad as a pass defense in general, ranking 29^th in pass defense DVOA. Bryant should be an enticing TE streaming option as the lead TE in an offense that likes to utilize the position and has an implied total of more than 28 points this week. Another top-10 TE finish wouldn’t be a surprise.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 8: vs. LAR): Tua will make his first career start on Sunday, and it comes in a less than ideal matchup. The Rams have allowed the 6^th-fewest QB points per game, and any defense that boasts Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey isn’t a great one to make your first start against. There is some upside here. The Rams have allowed Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh Allen to each throw for 3+ TDs and 250+ yards against them, and Tua is in the same realm talent-wise as Burrow and Herbert.  There are easier matchups coming for Tua. I’d leave him sidelined this week unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB or Superflex league.

QB Ben DiNucci, DAL (Wk. 8: @Phi.): I’d avoid DiNucci unless he is the only available option for you. He had a sterling senior season at James Madison in 2019, but he was mediocre at Pitt before that. The NFL is a huge jump in competition level, and we’ve seen over the last couple weeks that the Dallas o-line is a mess right now. There are a couple positives for the rookie. He does have an arsenal of weapons at his disposal, he has the wheels to escape the inevitable heat he’ll feel in the pocket (he averaged over 500 yards rushing per season in 2 years at JMU), and Philly isn’t a fearsome QB defense. Philly has allowed the 16^th-most QB points per game despite facing the 2^nd-easiest QB schedule in the league so far. Despite all that, I expect DiNucci to look like a deer in the headlights at times and wouldn’t trust him in any fantasy formats this week. If Dallas had any way to avoid playing him, they would take it.

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 8: @KC): Perine has been playing as the lead back for the Jets for two weeks now, out-snapping Frank Gore 81-to-41 over that span, but Gore is getting more of the opportunities. Gore has 22 carries and 4 targets in those games, and Perine has 18 carries and 6 targets. The Chiefs are as heavy a favorite as you’ll ever see in an NFL game, so the Jets may have to abandon the run pretty early on. There is a chance that Perine gets some receiving work in garbage time, but with the Jets implied total of 14.5, this is an offense to avoid for the most part (especially the running backs). You could roll Perine out there if you’re desperate, but you’ll be better off looking for a higher upside option.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Dallas may be forced into a prominent role this week with Chris Carson likely out and Travis Homer banged up as well. If both sit this week, Carlos Hyde will serve as the early down back and Dallas will work as the third-down guy and receiving back. This isn’t the best matchup to roll out a guy who will serve mainly as a receiving back. The 49ers haven’t allowed any running back this year to get to 4 receptions, and only two backs have reached 20 receiving yards against them. Dallas played 12 snaps last week and handled zero rushing attempts. That won’t lead him to a productive fantasy game this week.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 8: @Mia.): Until we see Akers start to play more, there’s no way to justify putting him in your lineup. He’s been on the field for just 4 snaps in the last two weeks. Akers would need an injury ahead of him or a blowout on the scoreboard to get into the game. The Dolphins do rank dead last in run defense DVOA, but they excel in pass defense and should at a minimum stay in the game.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Aaron Jones probably returns this week, but even if he doesn’t Dillon touched the ball just 5 times last week with Jones out. Jamaal Williams worked as the clear lead back. It does seem silly that the Packers used a second-round pick on Dillon but are so unwilling to put him on the field. Minnesota is a middle-of-the-pack run defense, but even if this were a great matchup Dillon doesn’t play enough to be trusted.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 8: @Bal.): What a change a couple weeks have made for Claypool. Two weeks ago he was the talk of the league after a 4-touchdown breakout game. Last Sunday he saw just one target and finished the day with negative yards. He’s bound to be better than that this week. The Steelers won’t hold anything back against the Ravens, and Claypool has been one of the best playmakers on the team. I’m sure there will be a few shot plays drawn up for the rookie, but with Diontae Johnson back on the field Claypool basically functions as a part-time WR3. In his 3 healthy games, Johnson has averaged nearly 13 targets per game (31% target share). In those 3 games, Claypool has averaged 2 targets. You should steer clear unless you’re desperate this week. Diontae did get a little banged up at the end of the Titans’ game. It sounds like he should be fine, but if he is unexpectedly out Claypool becomes a high upside WR3.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Peoples-Jones made a spectacular game-winning TD catch last Sunday after Odell Beckham exited with what turned out to be a torn ACL. It was an exciting moment for the rookie, and may be the first truly big catch he’s made since high school or earlier. He’s always had tantalizing potential but was never a consistent performer at Michigan. Some people expect DPJ to assume a bigger role in the offense with Beckham out, but I would pump the brakes at least a little bit. Rashard Higgins is the guy who becomes an immediate starter, and Cleveland uses their 2-tight end set as a base formation. There will be more playing time for DPJ, but that will probably mean he’ll be playing 40-50% of the offensive snaps going forward. Vegas is a burnable pass defense, ranking 29^th in pass defense DVOA, but if I’m taking a shot on a Browns wide receiver this week Peoples-Jones is third in line behind Jarvis Landry and Higgins. Jones should be rostered in deeper leagues in case he does emerge though.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. NE): Davis was a full-time player in week 7 with John Brown out, playing 95% of the offensive snaps, but it didn’t translate into fantasy production. He posted just 1 catch for 11 yards on 3 targets. Brown is practicing in full this week as of Wednesday, and it’s hard to envision Davis being a better play when he goes back to playing less than 50% of the snaps against a talented New England secondary.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 8: vs. Pit.): Duvernay’s snap share increased for 4 consecutive weeks heading into the team’s bye, but some of that can be attributed to Miles Boykin being banged up. Boykin should be back to full strength after a week off. Duvernay has averaged 7 PPR points per game in the last two games, but Pittsburgh ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA and isn’t really a matchup to target for Duvernay.

Rookies on Byes in Week 8: RB James Robinson, JAX, RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, WR Laviska Shenault, JAX, WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 8: @NYG): Tampa enters week 8 as a 10.5-point favorite, and for now it seems that Vaughn has moved into the RB3 spot on the depth chart behind Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. If this game stays close, Vaughn won’t play much. He didn’t play much in a blowout win a week ago against the Raiders, but Tampa led by just 4 with 8 minutes to go and pulled away down the stretch. If they get up earlier in this one, I’d expect Vaughn to get some extended run. The Giants allow the 10^th-most RB points per game. Vaughn is worth a look as a minimum priced option for DFS limited slate tournaments.

RB Jason Huntley, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): With Dallas looking at Ben DiNucci starting at QB, the rout could be on for Philly. Since it became clear that DiNucci would start, the Vegas line has moved almost a touchdown in Philly’s favor. The Eagles are now a 9-point favorite. That could mean a lot of opportunity in the second half for Huntley and Corey Clement. Huntley has the burners to break a long touchdown, and Dallas is tied for the most 20+ yard runs (9) and 40+ yard runs (3) allowed this season. He’s no more than a dart throw for a limited slate DFS tournament or the deepest of leagues, but the opportunity is there for a strong game out of Huntley.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 8: @KC): Mims walked into a much bigger role in his first game than I expected, turning 7 targets into 4-42. He was barely used at all in the 2^nd half of the game, but the entire Jets’ offense called it a day at halftime anyway. This week they have a VERY low projected total at just 14.5 points, and they should be throwing a ton in a very negative game script. Breshad Perriman looks like he’ll be out this week, and Jamison Crowder could be as well. Mims will be the de facto WR1 if both guys miss this game. The Chiefs are a tough WR matchup, allowing the 5^th-fewest points per game to the position, but the ball has to go somewhere. Mims costs little more than the minimum on DraftKings, and you could make a case for starting him if you need a fill-in in a deep league. It’s easy to envision him topping the production he put up in his debut, but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for a TD in this one.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 8: @NYG): Tyler Johnson has had a nice stretch over the past 3 weeks, with 60 yards or a touchdown in each game, and he gets a fortuitous opportunity this week. Antonio Brown will be ready to go for week 9, so this may be the last chance he gets as a rookie to make his mark, and Chris Godwin will miss Sunday’s game with a broken finger. The last time Godwin missed a game, Johnson played 79% of the snaps and finished with 4 catches for 61 yards on 6 targets. The Giants have allowed the 11^th-most WR points per game and rank 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski are certainly ahead of Johnson in the target pecking order this week, but Johnson might legitimately be #3. He’s a fill-in option in really deep leagues, and in-play for DFS tournaments at just $3,500 on DraftKings.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): While Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy are dealing with Casey Heyward and Desmond King respectively, Hamler will get to face off with Michael Davis. Davis has allowed the highest QB rating against, and the most yards per target into his coverage of any of the Chargers starting corners. In the 3 games he’s played, Hamler has averaged 5 targets and 1 rushing attempt, and could see a couple extra opportunities come his way with the tougher individual matchups for Patrick and Jeudy. KJ has enough speed to break a long TD, and he may be worth a DFS dart throw at just $3,600 on DraftKings.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Reagor is back at practice this week and seems likely to be activated for week 8’s matchup with the Cowboys. I don’t think this is an ideal week to get him into your fantasy lineups, but if he’s available on the wire in a deeper league, he’s a guy you should target. The Eagles are light on offensive weapons right now outside of Travis Fulgham, and Reagor can be a game breaker. The matchup this week is a good one on paper, with Dallas allowing the 6^th-most WR points per game, but this one could be over by halftime with Dallas starting an unheralded rookie QB. If you want to wager that Jalen makes an impact while the game is still competitive, the best place to do that would be in a DFS tournament. Reagor costs just $3,600 on DraftKings this week.

TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): Okwuegbunam didn’t play a single snap in the first 4 games of the season, but he’s announced his presence in a big way over the last two weeks. He’s an athletic weapon who clearly still has good chemistry with his college QB Drew Lock. Albert has played just 52 snaps in the last two weeks, and had the ball come his way on 13 of them. Noah Fant returned from injury last week, and the rookie still saw 7 targets and caught every one of them for 60 yards. This is a guy who shouldn’t be on your dynasty waiver wire, and would make for an intriguing dart throw this week in DFS tournaments at just $2,800 on DraftKings. The Chargers allow the 12^th-most TE points per game.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NO): Kmet has largely been an afterthought for fantasy players this season, serving as the Bears TE3 behind Jimmy Graham and Demetrius Harris. Kmet’s still not a guy you can trust in season-long lineups, but it appears he may have pulled even with Harris on the depth chart, playing more snaps than the veteran for the first time this season last Monday. In the first 4 games of the season, Kmet was targeted just 3 times and turned them into 1 catch for 12 yards. He finally broke through with a touchdown in week 6, but I chalked it up to a fluke. He followed that up with another 2 catches for 45 yards in week 7. I know those aren’t ‘startable’ fantasy numbers, but he is heading in the right direction and the Saints have allowed the 2^nd-most TE points per game this year. New Orleans has given up 30+ yard catches to little-used tight ends Foster Moreau and Jesse James this season, and let Marcedes Lewis in the end zone as well. Kmet will cost the minimum on DraftKings, and if there was any week to take a chance on Kmet having a surprisingly good game, this is the one to do it. The possible absence of Allen Robinson would free up some targets, and a couple of those could find their way to Cole.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you don’t start anyone who ends up inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

24.2 Points…From a Kicker

Brandon McManus was responsible for the entire scoring output of his team on Sunday, and it was enough to go into Foxboro and beat the Patriots. McManus was a perfect 6 for 6 on the day, converting 242 yards of field goals into 18 points on the board. His 24.2 fantasy points made him the 6^th highest scoring non-QB player of the week so far. Elsewhere, other kickers are continuing to kick butt. Younghoe Koo went 4/4 on field goals and 4/4 on extra points for a cool 20.1 points. Koo is the second-best kicker this year in terms of points per game and is very consistent. His lowest game is 8.5 points, which was his only game below 10 points all season. Then you have Justin Tucker, perhaps the most famous fantasy kicker in the game. He’s missed just one of his 34 total kicking attempts this season. His 17.7 points definitely were critical in leading at least one fantasy team (mine) to victory.

3 of the Top 10 Fantasy WRs

Three of the top 10 fantasy WRs by points in Week 6 are rookies. Leading the way is Justin Jefferson, who once again finds himself in the discussion for top WRs of the week. His 9 receptions for 166 yards and 2 TDs mark the third time this season he has broken the 100-yard mark. Jefferson is now the WR4 on the season, and he and Adam Thielen (WR2) are stepping up as the NFL's biggest power combo at WR. Last week’s WR leader, Chase Claypool, had a nice encore performance with 81 yards from scrimmage and another TD. Claypool is now leading his team in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Finally, we have Tee Higgins rounding out the top 10 of the week. His 6 receptions for 125 yards are both career highs, through 6 games. Higgins has emerged as probably the best WR on the Bengals, who have shown signs of life just one season after finishing with the NFL’s worst record. Higgins has a nice rapport with Joe Burrow developing and has moved into the every week starter conversation.

601 Yards of Offense

After an odd and shortened week, the Tennessee Titans put up a franchise-record 601 yards of offense, led by the one and only, the unidread, Derrick Henry. Henry had nearly half of those yards himself, 264 yards from scrimmage, including a 94-yard touchdown run in the 4^th quarter to take the lead back from the Texans. Ryan Tannehill managed to outduel Deshaun Watson, putting up 364 passing yards and throwing 4 TDs, though really, it’s the skilled manner in which he hands the ball to Derrick Henry and then gets the heck out of the way that got him this victory. 9 different Titans had receptions in this game, led by, as expected, Anthony…Firkser? Firkser saw a larger role with Jonnu Smith sidelined by injury and had a whopping 8 receptions for 113 yards and found the end zone as well. Firkser now has a Michael Thomas-esque 78.1% catch rate on his career. He is owned in 3% of fantasy leagues and was the TE1 on the week, so place your bids now! A quick digression – not to call out our drinkfive.com fantasy league or anything, but only 4 of the top 20 TEs so far this week are even on rosters in this league!

39.4 Fantasy Points

Let’s take another look at Derrick Henry’s ridiculous fantasy performance on Sunday. 22 carries for 212 yards is a 9.64 yards per carry average, meaning that every time he carried the ball, he went 29 of the 30 feet traditionally required to make a first down. He added two receptions for 52 yards, 53 of them (what?) coming in overtime to flip the field and set up the Titans for his game-winning TD 4 plays later. This is his third consecutive season where he has a game of at least 200 rushing yards. Henry is the first NFL player to accomplish this feat. He has 9 TDs in those three games. He can add two playoff games last year where he broke 200 yards from scrimmage to that leader board as well. How dominant was Henry? Well, the second-best RB this week has only 65% of his fantasy points. He scored 3x the points that the RB10, Adrian Peterson, had this week.

3 Pick-Sixes

Aaron Rodgers threw his third-ever pick-six on Sunday in 179 regular-season games. By contrast, his opponent on Sunday has 16 on his career. How about showing that stat when you try inflating Brady’s ego, Fox? Anyways, I digress. It was one of the worst games of Rodgers’ career and the Packers even managed to lose their first-place status in the NFC North. Meanwhile, the Bucs move into sole possession of first place in the NFC South with their 4^th victory. Brady’s old team only has 2 victories…if anybody is counting. The Bucs are managing to win with defense and a solid run game, just what we expected out of the traditionally high-flying offense of Bruce Arians. Ronald Jones is the first player this season with 3 consecutive 100-yard rushing games. Even Rob Gronkowski is getting in on the action, scoring his first TD as a Buc and finishing with 16.3 points this week, his best game since Week 14 of the 2018 season.

Watching trends in fantasy football is a key way to measure how a player is doing and to try and predict future success - or lack thereof. This week I present to you a pair of players trending up and a pair of players trending down and attempt to extrapolate which direction to expect them to go in the future. For our purposes, a trend is a player that has gone up or down three consecutive weeks. 

Trending Up

Kenyan Drake (RB-ARI) – Wk 4 @ CAR, 3.5; Wk 5 @ NYJ, 12.7; Wk 6 @ DAL, 28.4. Drake currently finds himself in a classic trending up situation where nearly all of his stats are trending in the correct direction. His carries, yardage, touchdowns, and fantasy points are all trending up. He put on a show on Monday night, running all over the busted Dallas defense, capping it off with a 69-yard rushing TD at the end of the game. Drake did what he is supposed to do against bad teams in the last two weeks and wound up as the RB2 just last week. He’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry in the last 2 games and has 3 total touchdowns as his team has put up at least 30 each week. Now Drake has some more nice matchups coming up. He’ll play 2 of his next 4 games against Seattle, who give up double digits to anyone with a respectable running game. He also has a game against Miami coming off a bye which should be a fine matchup as well. With the Cardinals offense past their early season jitters and back to their winning ways, I expect Drake to be a large part of the offense going forward and think his upward trend is a good indicator of what’s to come.

Darren Fells (TE-HOU) – Wk 4 vs MIN, 3.1; Wk 5 vs JAX, 12.7; Wk 6 @ TEN, 17.5. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. I’m not looking for TE magic here, just a one-eyed man…if you’ll let me stretch this metaphor. Fells is the TE5 when measuring across the last 3 games of all TEs. If you are not currently in possession of George Kittle or Travis Kelce, then it’s likely that you’re a blind resident of the TE wasteland. Fells is only owned in 32% of Fleaflicker leagues, so he’s been trending in the right direction if you’re streaming TEs. In the two games since Bill O’Brien was fired, the Texans have scored 66 points. They only had 80 points in the previous 4 games, so clearly they have identified at least part of what was broken on their offense. Fells has increased his yardage total 3 weeks in a row, and scored each of the last two weeks. He had 7 targets last week, good for third on the team. Fells has a mixed bag of matchups coming up, which means he will continue to just be a good streaming option and probably not a permanent fixture on your team. Regardless, it’s hard to find your way around the TE wasteland, best to at least go with someone who has an eye for the end zone.

Trending Down

Antonio Gibson (RB-WAS) – Wk 4 vs BAL, 20.8; Wk 5 vs LAR, 7.6; Wk 6 @ NYG, 7.5. Gibson was trending up and peaked in Week 4 with a rather good performance of 128 yards from scrimmage and 1 TD. Since then, however, his yards per carry has dropped to below 3.3 in each game. He’s seeing fewer carries and is also less effective in the passing game. Credit for his reduced workload goes to J.D. McKissic, the #2 RB in Washington. He has technically started half the games this season, and is definitely receiving a lot more attention in the passing game when compared to Gibson. The Washington offense is in QB limbo and there’s barely enough production on that team to support one fantasy WR, let alone a RB on a committee. The nature of this split has actually led to McKissic getting a larger percentage of the snaps than Gibson over the last couple of weeks. It was a nice idea, but the rookie is just not producing enough to warrant starting every week. Another week or two of this, and I expect to find him on Dave’s cutlist.

Juju Smith-Schuster (WR-PIT) – Wk 3 vs HOU, 14.3; Wk 5 vs PHI, 4.8; Wk 6 vs CLE, 1.6. On the season, Juju has not broken 70 yards and since the Steelers impromptu bye week, he is averaging a dismal 5.7 yards per reception. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson back to full health, it looks like Smith-Schuster is relegated to 3^rd or 4^th on the target list. The Steelers are playing well, a 5-0 start is the best they’ve had since the steel curtain of the late 70’s. There’s no need to fix what isn’t broken, so I don’t see a bounce back in store for Juju any time soon. He is still rosterable because he will have a role on this high powered offense if there are any injuries ahead of him.

(dis)Honorable Mention - Joshua Kelley (RB-LAC) – While not officially trending down by our standards, Kelley has been just utterly useless when it comes to fantasy. Justin Jackson has assumed the role of the injured Austin Ekeler, who will be back “later than sooner” according to coach Lynn.